As of about 11:35 12:05 New York time. Source.
Note that the major outstanding stash of votes is in St. Lawrence County, where Owens has done very well all evening. There are also a goodly percentage of the vote left in Lewis County, where Hoffman leads 52-43, but there just aren't that many voters there.
Most of the 5,800 or so absentee ballots throughout the district also haven't been counted; I don't know who that favors. But it looks to me like Hoffman is going to fall further behind when the rest of St. Lawrence comes in (which may not be until tomorrow; they've had some machine problems there) and the absentees -- of which Scozzafava will have a decent share -- won't be enough to help him.
With mucho caveats, as always. I'm just one guy here trying to cover seven elections at once and call 'em as I see 'em in real time.
EDIT: For instance, Watertown is not in St. Lawrence County, as I previously reported. Hence, the caveatting.
UPDATE: Fox News has called it for Owens.
UPDATE: There's been some confusion about the number of absentee ballots in the district. 10,000 were sent out, but 5,800 were returned.
11.03.2009
NY-23 Results by County; Democrat Owens Appears Poised for Victory
@ 11:41 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
162 comments
A bright spot on a dull damn night. WTF, Maine? Get your shit together.
Indeed... now we can look forward to another year of the anti-gay crowd's "Americans never vote for gay marriage" crap. As if the 48% in California and Maine who voted FOR gay marriage have somehow vanished. Gratifying when the tide finally turns, but sad to have to wait another year...
Wow, an unexpected win!
It'll be close enough that they have to count the absentee ballots, so the election can't quite be called tonight. The absentee ballots will almost certainly favor Hoffman substantially, although there's the peculiarity that many of them were cast when it was a 3-person race, so Scozzafava will presumably get more than 5%.
i would rather have this victory over VA or jersey. maybe the repubs will get a brain and not dump moderate people especially or moderate women.
probably too much to ask for.
there is 5800 absentee ballots to count
\
i think it looks good for owens
Link from Vladimir in the last thread claims 10,000 absentee ballots. Scozzafava's take (which we can imagine will be higher) will reduce the potential of that to swing 2,500 votes. But depending on when those votes were cast, and the demographics of the voters, it is concievable that they have a heavy Hoffman lean with Owens and Scozzafava splitting something close to half of the 10K. That could make it a lot closer by the time the ballot counting is done.
Maybe even recount territory, and it seems likely that Hoffman would get fully backed to push it for recounts.
FWIW: Watertown is in Jefferson County; SLC is a good deal more rural, although it includes a couple college towns/a portion of the Adirondacks that might swing pro-Dem.
(Not a Hoffman voter saying this; just sayin'.)
10,000 absentees sent out 5800 returned.
return rate is always lower
I think that whatever the outcome of this election (and it looks like it will be Owens), it is a wash as to what "message" it sends.
(Personally, I don't believe any of these elections had a "message").
The district was very Republican, but not quite as conservative as Hoffman was. But Owens isn't really riding a groundswell of support, either, since it looks like he will win with less than 50% of the vote.
And of course, this district is atypical, anyway. And this is an atypical election.
It also appears that the Fulton County results have been impounded because of machine problems. Per WSYR-TV website.
Dems gain two votes in Congress tonight.
Republicans..zero.
What's that mean?
When were the absentee ballots cast? If any of them were cast more than a few days ago, then a good percentage of those will be for Scozzafava, who hadn't dropped out at that point.
Fox News is calling the race for Owens. I guess that means he won given their trustworthiness as a news source.
The dems won an area that they haven't won since before Lincoln was President?
That must mean that the dems are going to win every congressional, senate and governors race in 2010!
This sarcastic post inspired by the teabagger retards PK, Grog, Bart,Ass Rider, etc.
All it means is that Palin is a joke. Everything the idiot touches turns to crap.
Does this mean Newt was right and T-Paw/Palin/Limbaugh/teabaggers/sociopaths don't know what they're talking about?
@liberal_defender_of_freedom
Dems gain two votes in Congress tonight.
Republicans..zero.
What's that mean?
NY-23 isn't a lock yet, but -
If it turns out that way, it means health care is a sure thing, and the Dems could well pick up seats (screw losing any) in 2010.
NATE, SPEAK TO MAINE!
Why were you so wrong with the prediction???
the 23 probably doesnt mean a hill of beans but still at least we wont be hearing sweep garbage or how great the alaskan woman is.
Dems gain two votes in Congress tonight.
Republicans..zero.
What's that mean?
It means that the GOP needs to go even more batshit insane.
*
Republicans are now down to 1 congressman in the state of New York!
The republican have lost ANOTHER congressiona seat!
Thanks Sarah!
Thanks Rush!
Thanks Glenn!
We couldn't have done it without your teabagg'n HA!
I can't wait for the circular teabagg'n firing squad!
this is marginally good news
yes, the DEM won with assist from Dede
BUT from what I gather he is more blue-dawgish so...
however, if this is NOT a rebuke to Palin & Beck et al for meddling in their politics & trying to push a carpet-bagger CON on them then I do not know what it could mean
BUT the CONs will hopefully take out of this that they needed even a MORE CON candidate [Hoffman was 'wrong' on immigration, etc]
and we can only pray that they will run even further right straight down loony lane & drag the GOP along with 'em
as MOB said above, I will trade VA & NJ for this one + CA-10
too bad about ME Gay Marriage though... :-(
WV - FLAUD [the CONs approach was flaud]
What does it mean? It means that the Conservative Party's old tactic of running a candidate against the Republican if they don't like his/her ideology has once again gotten a Democrat elected over a presumably electable Republican moderate. This will mean more moderate Republicans will move to the right so as not to have this happen to them, too.
It also means that the NY House delegation, which was 19-10 for the Dems three Congresses ago, is now 27-2 for them.
Put the two together and you've got a losing strategy for generic conservatives in blue states, and probably in some purple ones, too.
*
The Teabaggers have just lost a seat they've held for 150 years (since the civil war).
They've lost a seat they won last year, 364 days ago, by 30 points
They lost a seat Palin, Beck, and Rush had thrown all their weight.
Has anyone checked out Sarah "Kiss of Death" Palin's Facebook page to see what she has to say about the latest returns from NY-23?
Small correction Jenny:
The GOP has two Reps in NY--Chris Lee upstate and Peter King on Long Island
Pundits quiet on NY results on twitter. Their heads must be spinning to find talking points to continue on the this is a referendum on Obama meme after a district that hasn't voted for a Dem for congress in over 100 years just did.
Hoffman is about to concede defeat! Watch 'Hoffman HQ' on Fox
http://www.foxnews.com/
Maybe "conservative" is not the same as "wingnut".
The conservatives that I know think that the TP crowd is crazy, and they are not impressed by the over-the-top hyperbole.
All that the Right has done has re-defined the word "conservative" to mean "Tea Party Supporter", and then fabricated a 'rebellion' based on numbers of people self-identifying under a false definition of "conservative".
The results are hardly the "rout" that virtually every wingnut here anticipated.
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
Pundits quiet on NY results on twitter.
=============================
Which pundits?
Ok, so only 5800 absentee ballots, with now >3000 vote gap means Hoffman needs unusually good numbers there plus realistically a lot of help somewhere else.
Also those absentee ballots apparently wouldn't have been counted till next Tuesday?
So what's Fulton County likely to break as, since their machines FAILED and they went to paper backup, which also won't get counted till next Tuesday?
Governorships are about local (state) politics. Congress is about national politics. The only things that reflect on Obama tonight are the Congressional elections. Especially since the exit polling in VA and NJ confirmed that Obama had nothing to do with their vote today.
Congress continues to turn blue. Winger nutbats will insist the have to get so far right they turn infrared (and, thus, invisible). The country continues to support the course Obama is laying out.
Health care is a sure thing. Cap and Trade will happen. 2010 will see the Dems picking up seats in both houses, as the Republicans run insanely unelectable blithering teabagger idiots.
This is a good night for the good guys.
This is the result that means something as far as national politics. This is great news for the Democrats. Let's hope for more Teabagger "success" in knocking off moderate Republicans!
Governors races have little to do with the national political scene. Why are people suddenly pretending like they do? WTF Is that all about?
Owens may not have won a majority, but just a couple of days ago it was a three way split. So it appears that Scozzafava's endorsement may have helped. On the absentee issue, if only 5800 were returned, she would have taken a much bigger percentage of those before her announcement. I don't think Hoffman will get the margin he needs from the absentees to pull ahead. Palin and the wingnuts have done something that hasn't been done in over a hundred years, given a congressional race that was a republican lock to a democrat. Actually it was the Whig party that held it before the republicans.
Jenny.
I'm following the pundit feed on huffingtonpost.com. There's about 7-8 of their feeds on there. Nate is on the feed too.
Hoffman has just conceded. Apparently there were 10,000 absentee ballots sent out but only 5,800 returned so it was a mathematical impossibility.
In other news, DOW futures are suddenly way up. Coincidence? You decide. LOL...
Hoffman promised to work with Owens to 'do something about those taxes'. Its over.
Being from this district, watch out a bit with Owens if you are liberal...he is NOT. I voted for him simply to help insure Hoffman would not win, I did not vote for him because of his politics. The guy was an independent for years, before that a Republican...there is a ton of talk that he will switch back to Independent and who knows, even Republican at some point.
I am glad he won, but he is not a great democratic candidate to hold up for the liberal cause.
George Taylor said...
Has anyone checked out Sarah "Kiss of Death" Palin's Facebook page to see what she has to say about the latest returns from NY-23?
===============================
She's waiting for her ghost writer to compose something. They're too full of themselves to have prepared for either outcome.
omg I coulda cleaned house on intrade with Owens.
liberal_defender_of_freedom
could you be kind enough to post a link.
Thanks in advance
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2009/11/03/new-york-state-and-new-je_n_344287.html
wait till the blogger feed on the left shows up
DCM wrote:
"this is marginally good news"
Yes, it's more symbolic than anything. The wingnuts really 'won' when they drove Scozzafava out of the race, at least in their mind. The wingnut excuses will be hilarious, though.
Maybe "conservative" is not the same as "wingnut".
The conservatives that I know think that the TP crowd is crazy, and they are not impressed by the over-the-top hyperbole.
Exactly right, I know many myself.
However, the GOP is going continue to marginalize and push out intelligent and reasonable conservatives.
MidPointMan said...
What is the point of this site if Nate is unwilling to make picks anymore in close elections?
This one is easy. If anyone thinks that a bunch of Republicans are going to make the effort to go the the polls in an off-year to vote for for a Democrat with this national mood they need their head checked.
The hardcore Scozzafava fans will vote for her anyway.
Owens cannot break the high 30s even with a generous sample frame.
Hoffman is not an extremist, he is just a Conservative in GOP district. He would have been the nominee had their been a primary.
Hoffman will win by double digits most likely.
Nate's dismissal of the PPP poll is another in a disturbing string of mulligans for Nate.
He adores the deeply flawed R2000 polls and refuses to examine them critically.
He dismissed the CFG poll because he did NLT like the result. The poll was vindicated by the Siena poll and even his own patsy R2000 pollster.
PPP has it nailed.
November 1, 2009 8:55 PM
~~~~~~~~~~
MPM, like PPP you nailed it !!!
Congrats! ;)
Josh said...
Governors races have little to do with the national political scene. Why are people suddenly pretending like they do? WTF Is that all about?
===================================
You know how the corporate media has always favored the republicans.
And unfortunately, some bloggers are influenced by the "noise".
haha shiloh.
beowolf-
i heard he want much of a dem too, but at least you wont have to look at hoffman and those teeth. what is it with repubs and their teeth?
This is not a good night for equal rights. The Maine loss (at least 4 points and maybe heading for 6+) is a bit larger than the worst-case advance predictions. The Washington State tally on an "equality in all but the name" proposal has become closer and closer as the tallies are posted. .... Preliminary analysis points once again to the power of the Catholic Church (in Maine) and organized religion more broadly to effectively control and turn out large blocs of their constituency against elementary civil rights when such rights involve women and gays.
Between the two elections that actually have something to do with DC, it seems like pretty clear--if minute--progress for the Democrats. Tauscher in CA-10 was the founder of the moderate New Democrats Caucus, while Garamendi is a shoe-in for the Progressive Caucus. Owens may be a moderate, but he's certainly not a Republican. He's suggested he's at least one more vote for a public option, FWIW.
greatone98040 said...
I expect Hoffman will win easily now, but if our early numbers were any indication what Scozzafava did doesn't make much difference- he was going to win easily with or without her in the race.
October 31, 2009 2:00 PM
~~~~~~~~~~
greatone, time to change your username, eh. ;)
So ultimately
On the Rep side we have:
A strong GOP candidate trounced a lousy Dem gubernatorial candidate in VA, which has gone against the white house 9 times in a row
A corrupt, bloated GOP gasbag narrowly beat a corrupt, unpopular weasely Dem governor in NJ, which has gone against the white house 6 times in a row
A Vatican-funded hate measure likely narrowly passed in ME
On the Dem side we have:
A Democrat won a heavily Republican seat in upstate NY
A progressive Democrat will likely replace a blue dog in CA
An equality-oriented referendum will likely pass in WA
An enormous underdog Dem came within 5 points of a billionaire moderate in NYC
Looks kinda like a wash I guess. Dems doing better on the national stage maybe, but some bad luck for marriage equality.
Hey, where did all the pro-Hoffman trolls go? Congress will be two seats bluer, Virginia followed its historic trend in electing governors that are from the opposite party as the sitting president, and New Jersey voted out one crook in favor of another. Doesn't seem like a red tide rising to me ... though I'm sure tomorrow's media will tell us all how it means Serious Business for Obama and Democrats.
Dear Gov. Palin:
I would like to offer you my most heartfelt gratitude for the tremendous boost you gave my candidacy. Going out on a limb and endorsing a Conservative Party candidate over one from your own party showed tremendous courage on your part. My staff of hard-working volunteers had been very concerned about this election; but when you announced your endorsement last week, it really lifted our spirits and gave us new life. Now we have largely you to thank for the outcome. I hope we can once again count on your support for the conservative agenda in the next congressional election.
Sincerely,
Representative-Elect Owens
Bart DePalma said...
The Siena poll is over counting Dems, perhaps substantially.
When reviewing the linked internals, I was wondering how Hooffman could be leading among Republicans and Indis and pulling in more Dem than Owens is GOP in a district with 45% GOP and 27% Dem.
If the GOP, Dems and Indis all show up at equal rates in the Siena poll, Hoffman (37.48%) should be leading Owens (33.47) by four points.
The conservative GOP and indis are far more fired up in national polling than liberal Dems, thus Hoffman probably should have a high single digit lead in the Siena poll.
The only way Owens could have a one point lead is if Siena substantially over counted Dems and liberal Indis.
The PPP results indicate that Hoffman continued to accumulate support over the past few days. Hoffman will win this in a walk.
November 1, 2009 10:02 PM
~~~~~
Bart DePalma said...
Then again, if hopes were money, the Dems would be rich. Owens best shot was an effective Scozza campaign splitting the GOP vote. That distant hope is now gone. Hoffman will win this race easily and the conservative rebellion will go viral in the GOP.
November 1, 2009 10:15 PM
~~~~~~~~~~
Congrats BDP, you win w/(2) posts saying the winger Hoffman would win easily. ;)
As always BDP, so analytical and sooo wrong w/your incorrect analysis!
take care
Remember this regarding VA.
In 2001, when Bush has 90% approval ratings, a Democrat won the Senate seat.
SHILOH
keep them comin' !!!
plenty more of the rightwing posters to flame with their own bad comments
I'm luvin' those quotes - throw it right back in their faces, eh...
CA-10 called by NYT for Garamendi.
Rudy said...
I love the "sour grapes" strategy by the left wingnuts now. As we discussed yesterday, this election had taken on national proportions because it is the grass roots taking on the moderate-oriented Republican power structure. That strategy has failed monumentally and now the conservatives are in the ascendency again, which is what wins elections for Republicans.
Now, the kook fringe delusional thinking, based on a minor crosstab in a weak poll, is that Dede's voters will vote for the Dem because they're mad at Hoffman and don't like the national significance of this election. Au contrare. The center-right and right voters are tired of being fed lib-lite gruel and told to like it.
This will be a blowout. Can't believe Nate would short the 67 at InTrade. So wrong, as was his oddsmaking yesterday.
October 31, 2009 2:50 PM
~~~~~~~~~~
And the hits just keep on comin' ...
DCM in FL, tried to bookmark them all, although I may have missed some lol, so many yahoo wingers, so little time! :)
Walker? Hello Walker? What, ran back to redstate when your sanctimonious prediction of a "three-fer" didn't come true?
I guess it's just you and your Sarah Palin calendar tonight again.
maybe what BDP MEANT to say was that Hoffman's win would be just as lop-sided as Dewey's 1948 landslide win.
Chris Mathews just can't mention Dems picked up two house seats tonight.
I guess those wins must not fit into his story he had planned for the night.
@shiloh
Don't forget
PeteKent said...
The Conservative Candidate will win in a walk. The GOP Candidate, Schivazza, was a machine pick and carries no influence with the voters. Only vindictiveness could have inspired her to endorse the Donkey in the race.
PeteKent said...
The Conservative Candidate will win in a walk. The GOP Candidate, Schivazza, was a machine pick and carries no influence with the voters. Only vindictiveness could have inspired her to endorse the Donkey in the race.
November 1, 2009 6:25 PM
~~~~~~~~~~
btw, my timing was great, finished watching NCIS and the WSOP on ESPN and just heard Owens had won on MSNBC! :)
PK, Keep hope alive!
Craziness from Erick Erickson at Redstate:
"I have said all along that the goal of activists must be to defeat Scozzafava. Doug Hoffman winning would just be gravy. A Hoffman win is not in the cards, but we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate."
...and this:
"Third parties lack funding and ability for a host of reasons. Conservatives are going to have to work from within the GOP. The GOP had better pay attention."
Thank you so much! Apparently the lesson the wingnuts have taken away from this is "more wingnut!".
yeah, they have already called CA-10 for the DEM even though less than 30% reporting
we will have to admit that the margin of vistory out there is not so impressive - but still plenty of it
and considering Garamendi is not only a progressive, but he is/was the DEM Lt Gov under GOP-Ahnuld the Governator
plus Garamendi has been In & around CA politics forever - in fact when I lived out on the left coast, John was the Insurance Commissioner for CA not once, but two different times
caveat - Garamendi was also a 'carpetbagger' ala Hoffman since he did not actually reside within this district...
so the progressive DEM carpetbagger WON tonight, while the conservative CON/GOP carpetbagger LOST - conclusion...
better chance for Healthcare imho since it is a net gain in DC + DEMs prove they can WIN even in an off-year special election for congress
oh, and the big loser has to be Sarah Palin [again] imho
she & her cronies have further hobbled the GOP in DC
way to GO ROGUE !!!
KEEP UP ALL YOUR GOOD WORK for the DEMs, SARAH !!!
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
Remember this regarding VA.
In 2001, when Bush has 90% approval ratings, a Democrat won the Senate seat.
============================
Ditto New Jersey. McGrevee won.
Just shows you the biased nature of the corporate media.
@Todd Dugdale
The lesson is that the GOP is set to splinter in the most spectacularly entertaining of ways over the next few years.
Biden 2
Palin 0
I just have a technical question: I've heard people say the 23rd District has been held by the GOP for over 100 years . . . yet in the 1970s it looks like they had DEM representatives. (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York%27s_23rd_congressional_district). I realize the District has been redrawn multiple times, so it's hard to say; but what is this statement based on? Is it really true?
SHILOH = MVP of the blog tonight
unanimous consent, y'all ???
Re. NY 23, the local GOP leaders probably had it right.....Scozzafava was probably the best pick to lead the district. Then carpetbaggers on a mission came in and tried to steal the show. Even though I wanted Hoffman to lose, I suspect that NY 23 got the second best candidate because of Palin and her idiot cabal.
The good news is that it will help offset some of the spin coming off the GOP wins in NJ and VA.
AxmxZ wrote:
"The lesson is that the GOP is set to splinter in the most spectacularly entertaining of ways over the next few years."
There's not much to stop it now that the national Party leadership went with Hoffman. The state Party organisations are very effective at freezing out 'rebellions'; case in point would be Ron Paul.
However, with the national leadership "going wingnut", it will be an ugly primary season for Republicans.
Jason: Many different regions have been called NY-23 over the years. In the 70s, NY-23 was in the Bronx.
When people say that NY-23 hasn't been Democratic since the 1850s, they are talking about the geographic region that is currently NY-23. They are also being a bit disingenuous. Parts of the current district have been represented by Democrats as recently as 1978. It is only a few counties which haven't been represented by Democrats since the 1850s.
"Looks kinda like a wash I guess. Dems doing better on the national stage maybe, but some bad luck for marriage equality."
Jacob, you forgot the Breckinridge measure to legalize marijuana that passed 3:1. That has to make up for Deed's loss in VA.
Bloomberg barely getting 50% is really quite under-performing...
perhaps that will put the kibosh on his national political plans now since the air appears to have gone out of his BIG popularity/populist balloon...
but at least he did not lose like Hoffman [aka Palin's proxy]
So Erick Erickson said "we did exactly what we set out to do — crush the establishment backed GOP candidate."
And Democrats everywhere are appreciative. Please keep at it!
Really, moving the party to one extreme doesn't help unless the public moves with you; otherwise you're just ceding territory to the opposition. We all saw how Nader's attempt to so something similar worked out.
If this trend grows, it will just show how ideology trumps any sense of practicality in what's left of the Republican party. And the real world will not bend to anyone's ideology, left or right, no matter how much we may believe in that ideology.
BTW, I correctly predicted on Sunday that a Rep would not win NY-23 lol
and would like to congratulate the party of No! for defeating a very, very, very unpopular incumbent Dem governor of NJ by (4) pts. Christie having blown a ginormous lead against Corzine, who most everyone in NJ despised.
but hey, a win is a win, so congrats!
btw, where have all the winger trolls gone in this Dem Owens wins NY-23 thread! ;)
Let the record show re: NY-23 Dem performance:
2009 - 49% ? Owens
2008 - 35%
2006 - 37%
2004 - 29%
2002 - 0%
2000 - 23%
1998 - 21%
1996 - 25%
1994 - 18%
1992 - 21%
1990 - 38%
1988 - 25%
1986 - 0%
1984 - 29%
1982 - 28%
So recapping, palin, etc. lost this safe Rep district to a Dem, congrats!
palin/bachmann 2012
Just a question,
Why is NY23 a referendum on Sarah Palin, a district that went for Obama in 08, any more of a referendum than NJ and VA were for Obama?
Those after all were giant swings from the 08 numbers, where I would guess the 08 numbers in NY23 from Obama/McCain match these numbers tonight?
Not that I have any horse in this race, just wondering why the Palin/Beck crowd which likely elevated a truly awful candidate from also ran to near win are taking all the heat, when Obama in NJ couldn't close...VA was dead to Obama in a kinda mutual way from the Deeds campaign?
My opinion..these races are all local. Palin had some effect in elevating Hoffman, but as she will forever be on any national stage, not enough cross appeal to win anything. Deeds's refusal to use Obama is dumbfounding, and in NJ one unpopular governor is likely traded for another.
Also interested in the thoughts here on McDonnell as a national candidate. Gotta think his 2012 VP stock is soaring, as the margain in Va has to be the real surprise tonight, I mean 18 points.
He is clearly the big winner tonight, as I suppose incumbants are the big loser, as the Dems in Va and NJ go out, as does the Rep in NY23 and gay marraige in Maine.
Christie's appeal is limited to 49% of a small NJ electorate, McDonnell's much broader. In an extraordinarily weak GOP field in 2012, a swing state governor has to be awfully appealing.
91% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Winner: Bill Owens DEMOCRAT
Bill Owens Dem. 61,666 49.1%
Doug Hoffman Con. 57,073 45.4
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 6,976 5.5
ah, now THAT is a story
now I hope Dede does switch to the DEM caucus in the NY state Assembly - after the way she was abused, it would serve the GOP more humble pie in the eye
All right, so Bloomberg won with a truly unspectacular margin of what, 4%? Does anyone else get the sense that the Obama team is checking off a little ticky-box in some notebook somewhere by Bloomberg's name? If Obama had made any effort whatsoever - at all! - to endorse Thompson, that might have pushed him over the edge to victory. But Obama likes Bloomberg - they have that "two clever centrist cookies" chemistry. And so Obama stayed the hell out of it and refused to help Thompson. Effectively, Bloomberg owes his remaining in power to Obama's non-intervention.
This kind of screws the argument that the independents will go right. The far right butted into this race and the independents gave them a one-finger salute.
All of the polling had high uncommitted numbers. For Owens to win, they had to break for him by a 2-1 margin, and they did.
The reason Hoffman is conceding is because he will be more than 5,800 votes behind. He would have to get every single vote in order just to force a runoff.
ps. liberal_defender_of_freedom: loved the first post. As for the second, Matthews was hammering Mark Williams, a wingnut Hoffman/Palin supporter. He asked him to name the leaders of the Republican Party that are the issue. He couldn't name one. He was totally lost.
Jason - Another poster stated the answer generally...the 23rd today is not the same as the past due to re-districting over the years. The core counties that make up our district (the ones that have historically been grouped together) have been labeled:
23 - 2003 - present
24 - 1993 - 2003
26 - 1983- 1993
30 - 1973- 1983
31 - 1963 - 1973
33 - 1953 - 1963
32 - 1913 - 1945
If you follow that core set of counties back (sorry, not time to go back to the Civil War!;)) you see it has always been a Republican who represented us. Someone else said it is disingenuous to say a Republican has represented this area for that entire time, I don't think it is...the core counties have always been grouped together (Jefferson, St. Lawrence, Oswego, Franklin, Lewis). Others have been added and removed over the decades, but those are the core that always are together and Republican.
liberal_defender_of_freedom said...
Remember this regarding VA.
In 2001, when Bush has 90% approval ratings, a Democrat won the Senate seat.
~~~~~~~~~~
Slight correction, Mark Warner won the VA governor's race 52/47 in 2001.
carry on
dsimon wrote:
"If this trend grows, it will just show how ideology trumps any sense of practicality in what's left of the Republican party."
Absolutely.
It seems to me that the TP crowd has fallen victim to their own spin. The Republican Party fed them a whole of BS to keep their morale up, and the TP crowd believed it.
It's the equivalent of betting the farm on a football team based on the team's cheerleaders telling you that their team is Number One.
@David
You're wrong in one important way. The gubernatorial races are local, yes. By definition. The NY-23 race is national. Also by definition. If one were to look for predictors for 2010 races, guess which one would be the better signalling predictor?
DAVID
we can HOPE that the GOP decide to run McDonnell for a national office
I suggest PALIN/McDonnell in 2012
sorry, SHILOH, but the GOP are close to the edge of sanity - however even I doubt they would have the cajones to run 2 females [palin/bachmann 2012]
GO ROGUE !!!
By the way, Garamendi is at 56% to 38% for the next closest (Harmer), so that seems pretty convincing; this is with 68K votes counted out of 74K cast.
As to Garamendi being a carpetbagger, his house is just outside of the 10th, so not really fair. I think most would say that he understands our area (Walnut Creek, Diablo Valley, Lafayette, etc).
Walt Senterfitt: Politics of Public Health said...
This is not a good night for equal rights. The Maine loss (at least 4 points and maybe heading for 6+) is a bit larger than the worst-case advance predictions. The Washington State tally on an "equality in all but the name" proposal has become closer and closer as the tallies are posted. ....
With 50% of the vote in, Ref 71 is leading. That is very good primarily because its a slow count in King County where most ballots were submitted by mail. Counting of King County ballots isn't expected to be finished until some time tomorrow. The fact that its leading without King County is a major plus. As it stands now, Ref 71 is carrying the ten most populous and liberal counties of Western WA and losing badly in the much less populated and more conservative counties of eastern WA. If the current trend continues, Ref 71 should pass. FWIW.
Yeah, the big winner tonight on this blog is Shiloh -- who wins in a walk.
The second big winner today is the voters -- who get the last word.
So now that Christie has won, maybe he can finally reveal how he will balance NJ's budget while cutting taxes.
Not yet?
Well at any rate, he has promised not to be Jon Corzine.
I see the Big Teabagger Revolution fizzled on square one tonight.
Best laugh of the year is how Walker, Pete Twit, Bart De Publican and the rest of the tighty-righty crowd all predicted a Hoffman win in the “high double digits”.
Too bad about Maine, but it just goes to show what outside religious money will do, provided there’s enough of it. Why don’t religions stick to saying prayers and holding services and funerals instead of dictating to everyone how they’re supposed to live?
So in the only head-to-head match up today involving Bart De P’s “conservative wave” the score is—
Democrats 1
Teabaggers 0
Bart, be careful you don’t let that “conservative wave” lap over the rim of the bathtub and onto the floor, ’cause Mama’s gonna take a switch to you if it does.
PAULK
I was just kidding about Garamendi
he is certainly more than qualified & I am thrilled he will win
but the same was true for the residency of Hoffman in NY-23, so it was fair to compare
apparently the issue did play against Hoffman much more than against Garamendi - but everyone already knows Garamendi in the entire state
he will be an asset in the congress, especially since he is so ambitious & such a political player
I would not be surprised to see him climb high in the DEM caucus in DC rather rapidly [unless he is on Pelosi's bad side that is - but I assume they get along OK]
or do you think Garamendi will want to run for higher office again ? I know Brown semms to have him stategically blocked out from another run for Governor next term, but any other rumors or projections on his long-term intentions in CA ?
Thanks for all the helpful responses about the history of the 23rd District. I guess it could reasonably be said that the geographic area that corresponds to the current District has pretty much always gone Republican.
As for why this District is much more of a referendum than NJ . . . (1) Corzine had a record to run on (or against); none of the 3 House candidates were really incumbents; (2) Obama pretty much had to endorse Corzine - party line; whereas Palin (and others) went AGAINST the GOP party endorsing this Hoffman guy; (3) this election has national implications; the NJ Gov race really doesn't.
So I would NOT say this special election was a referendum on the GOP, but rather on the wing of the GOP that endorsed Hoffman.
AxmxZ: "You're wrong in one important way. The gubernatorial races are local, yes. By definition. The NY-23 race is national. Also by definition. If one were to look for predictors for 2010 races, guess which one would be the better signalling predictor?"
No, I think David was right. NY-23 is not the nation; it's one district in one state that had a truly bizarre race with a third party candidate who knew little about local issues and a Republican endorsing a Democrat. Just because the parties tried to make it into some kind of national referendum doesn't mean it was one.
Everyone is looking for a proxy for 2010, and this election is all we have for now. But just because it's all we have doesn't mean it's a good proxy. I'd say national polling is a far better measure of where things stand today than a special election in one House district.
And where things stand today isn't where they will stand in 2010. The economy could be clearly in recovery and creating jobs, or still be in the dumps, or anything in between. Or there could be some kind of international crisis. Or a host of other events.
There is no proxy for 2010. Sometimes we just have to accept that we don't have the information to predict anything and leave it at that.
keetz4
thanks for the insight for WA Ref 71.
right now those raw %'s are too close, so I am happy to hear not to sweat it...
but ME results are really tragic, and a bad reflection on Mainers
reputations as social progressives...
too bad a record turnout apparently by the seniors seems to have tipped the scales the wrong direction in ME
PRAG
my count has it: DEMs +2
CONs -2
As a party, they got hosed where it counts - in DC
@shiloh
Well, I was all prepared to dance on Pete Kent's predictions tonight. But I have to tip my hat to shiloh.
Nicely played, my friend.
Jacob said...
Well at any rate, he has promised not to be Jon Corzine.
No problem there, he's not bald! :D
@DCM, he has not done well when trying to run for Governor. Not sure why exactly. Has done fine as Lt Gov (we separately elect them, not connected to Gov) and insurance commissioner.
I agree that he will play this for an expanded role in national level politics, especially as I do think he gets along fine with Pelosi.
Hoffman was more of a carpetbagger only because he seemed to not even know the local politics; I realize he used to be in the district until rearranged, but he was not in that core district. The 10th is quite arbitrary in terms of Orinda to Brentwood, and quite mixed. I expect the voting was very high for the Republican in Diablo valley and Brentwood, and strongly Democrat in Walnut Creek and West. So, not a monolithic district at all, which is why we have been quite purple over the years.
As to next steps, it does look like Jerry has a good shot a Gov (again), although he has left his "moon-beam" days behind (running Oakland will harden you more than Attorney General ;-)
Blogger Dwight said...
No indeed. And you might say he's twice the man Corzine is.
:-)
The way I heard it, Christie said that he promised not to 'EAT' Jon Corzine
I know, my bad...
WV - dogrea [what a sick blue dawg gets]
Blogger DCM in FL said...
"The way I heard it, Christie said that he promised not to 'EAT' Jon Corzine."
Exactly. Christie just won because of his robust campaign. And his well-rounded approach to the meaty issues of the campaign.
Or maybe because his support ballooned over the weekend. Why, Daggett's numbers collapsed under him!
All right maybe that's laying it on a little thick.
;)
PAULK
yeah, I lived & voted out in SoCal for 20+ years until relocating to FL in 05
so I remember John G. very well - and voted for him several times too.
I still keep a PT residency in LA, but registered in FL where my vote as a DEM usually has more impact [see Obama]
In fact, it is so different here in FL than in CA for national & state politics. You get up close & personal with the candidates. Last year I had numerous local opportunities to see Obama up close [I could have met him once except I had to go to CA at that time]. I did meet both Jill & Joe Biden at separate local campaign stops.
But the candidates always take CA for granted - well except for the big ticket fundraisers...
downside is that in FL you are forced to suffer through non-stop attack ads through the entire election cycle - and the smaller media markets make it possible to bombard us 24/7... ugh
I think I will be back living FT in CA before 2012 so I try to keep up with politics there.
Ahnuld will be long gone by then...
@dsimon
I'm not talking about actual predictors here, mind you - I'm talking about spinnable predictors. But here's the thing. This race shows that moderate Republican-leaning independents, presented with a hard-core wingnut and a moderate Democrat, will go towards the Democrat. The Teabagging crowd is so ace at self-delusion that it'll manage to convince itself of the opposite: that the key to victory is MORE hard-liners in MORE areas, with MORE aggressive PR. So as weird as this race was, I think it might provide a micro-cosmic preview of what's to come in 2010.
@beowulf:
Sorry, but it is absolutely disingenuous to claim that 'the current NY-23 hasn't had a Democratic representative since 1850' when different parts of the district have had Democratic representation at different times all the way up to 1978.
And it's patently ridiculous to claim that the Democrats who represented Hamilton, Fulton, Madison, Essex, and Oneida counties in the 20th century somehow don't count because they don't comprise 'the core' of the district as you choose to define it.
Why is NY23 a referendum on Sarah Palin, a district that went for Obama in 08, any more of a referendum than NJ and VA were for Obama?
I'm not convinced tonight was a referendum on ANYthing. But if it was, there's evidence its a partial referendum on TP politics itself.
McDonnell hugged the middle so hard during the campaign, one might mistake it for his mother. Added to the fact he didn't have to publicly tickle the belly of the conservative base in a Right-v-Moderate primary fight (even if he may be strongly conservative himself).
Nobody can say with a straight face that the next VA governor won by pushing the TP agenda (or even a Republican one). He won by keeping his party identity out of it as best he could...focusing instead on issue-driven dialogue, job creation, promises of bi-partisanship, campaign ads titled 'Hope', and flat-out proving himself to to be a better campaigner than 'Mr. Deeds'.
(sound familiar, Obama-voters?)
If there's any political lessons to be learned from 11/3/09, one of them might just be this: McDonnell-Way > Palin-Way.
@beowulf said..."The guy was an independent for years, before that a Republican...there is a ton of talk that he will switch back to Independent and who knows, even Republican at some point. I am glad he won, but he is not a great democratic candidate to hold up for the liberal cause."
Maybe the thing to take away from this is that the majority of people are somewhere between liberal-republican and conservative-democrat. The "sanity" party might be a viable third party.
shma said...
~~~~~~~~~~
Noticed right after my PK post that we posted at the same time.
Too funny!
let's go for the hat trick, shall we:
PeteKent said...
The Conservative Candidate will win in a walk. The GOP Candidate, Schivazza, was a machine pick and carries no influence with the voters. Only vindictiveness could have inspired her to endorse the Donkey in the race.
November 1, 2009 6:25 PM
~~~~~~~~~~
thrice as nice! :)
and speaking of palin who totally botched NY-23 for the party of No! ~ I've changed my opinion on her running in 2012. She definitely is gonna run because she is still pissed McCain wouldn't let her give her concession speech after Obama won last Nov. and we know how she loves the limelight sooo, she will run in 2012, win the nomination, lose to Obama and then give that damn concession speech she was denied after her 2008 defeat! ;)
btw, who's Schivazza? :)
Does anyone know what happened with the NJ legislature or the VA House of Delegates?
Also, did MS, LA, or KY (which elect their governors in 2011) have legislative elections this year?
I'm done with Democrats.
Neither Biden, Clinton, nor President Obama came out in support of Question 1 in Maine. I'm tired of being pandered to during elections then ignored.
I'll be voting Green from now on, I'd rather throw my vote away then give it to spineless pseudo-progressives.
People have been hurt today; we are not a special interest group, we are human beings.
DCM in FL said...
keetz4
thanks for the insight for WA Ref 71.
right now those raw %'s are too close, so I am happy to hear not to sweat it...
Update: In King County [which includes Seattle], Ref 71 is getting a 66% yes vote. They are saying there are a lot more votes to count in the areas approving the measure than in the areas trashing it. So it looks like it will pass but no guarantees at this point.
@Dave
It is a shame that this country refuses to provide equal rights to everyone.
I hear ya, Dave. Its a tragedy, that here in 21st America, its still legal for one portion of the population to vote out the equality of another. One group can use 'democracy' to shackle another group into 2nd-Class citizenship.
This country has come a long way toward realizing the founding principles of our Constitution...but oh how far it still has to go.
Well well. I have to say that overall I am thrilled with tonight. The GOP kicked major donkey ass in Virginia and New Jersey. New Jersey!!
Palin Beck and Limbaugh got their smackdown and now cooler heads will prevail before there is a push to primary Republican officeholders.
That means more center-right pragmatic problem solving candidates like McDonnell and Christie. The kind that can win elections and that is all to the good for the GOP.
This Republican predicted a very narrow Hoffman win - but isn't at all sad that it didn't happen. VA and NJ are much better models for success.
JACOB
your riff on Christie's WIDE margins made a ROFLOL
seriously
but on that note, IF Christie was not such a corpulent bag of gas imho he would probably have won by a much better margin this year [and he was fortunate in the end that Daggett support collapsed]
in comparison, from all I have seen & heard the reverse was true in VA. McDonnell is a much more polished & telegenic [albeit whitebread] TV campaigner vs. Mr. Deeds who is...not so much.
easily a +5 swing under the circumstance once he successfully convinced the electorate that he was not really a GOP/CON wackjob.
on that, time will tell imho
WV - BLECT [when you throw up a bit in your throat - my reaction to Rush & Beck & Billo et al
WOW!!! The Quitter really hit it out the park tonight. She sprinkled her magic dust and really shook things up in NY-23. Cheers!
Seriously, the FOX, FReeptard, Limbaugh, Beck teabagger brigade would trade Christie for a Hoffman victory in a heartbeat. This race, as the MSM kept reminding people, was the BLOCKBUSTER, the race everyone was talking about.
Sure Dems are disappointed about the governor races, but both candidates were trailing from the beginning. Creigh Deeds ran quite possibly the worst campaign I've ever seen. He actually tried to close the deal and GOTV by saying he'd opt-out of healthcare if elected. Genius move, dipshit! You're now the poster boy for what you don't do if your a Democratic candidate.
I said the moment Deeds had won the primary that he had to run a perfect campaign, and even then it would still be a squeaker. Fuck me, I should have lowered the bar a bit. I was using Scott Murphy's heroics against heavy favourite Jim Tedisco in Ny-20 as a reference.
As for Corzine, the guy was at 30%, had to go negative to even get close. Corzine, like Deeds, also underperformed and failed to GOTV. He should have saved his millions and stepped aside for Booker, who'll wipe the floor with Christie in 2013.
If Maine had came through, this would have turned out to be a pretty good night for progressives. They would have been ecstatic in fact. Like I said, the writing was on the wall weeks, if not months ago for Deeds and Corzine. Both were the wrong candidates at the wrong time. Fact is, Dems didn't have any good candidates to vote for. But thanks to Beck and The Quitter, they managed to pull the biggest one out the fire. At least according to the MSM, who funnily enough have been silent on Owens big victory. I wonder why?
The founding principles while good were really meant for the white church going folks.
For everyone else there was / still is the graft.
As a former king county resident i am embarassed that rf. 71 is only getting 66% of the vote.
We worked the phones hard here to help out in Maine. Dave, I'm so sorry it wasn't enough. Though it may take years (or even a generation), and though my gay mother may never realize her lifelong dream...its still worth fighting for. For future generations of citizens are counting on all of us, straight and gay...to stand up, to stand together, and push for the founding principle that here in America there is only one class of citizen...'First'.
Dave said...
I'm done with Democrats.
I'll be voting Green from now on, I'd rather throw my vote away then give it to spineless pseudo-progressives.
People have been hurt today; we are not a special interest group, we are human beings.
The wheels of justice grind exceedingly slow but exceedingly fine. I suggest that your absence from politics will do little to advance your cause. Politics is sometimes a game of statistics. It often takes constant vigilance and reminders to bring justice to light. Surrendering loudly is still just that; surrender. I implore you not to do that. Nothing will be gained from it.
EmonOkari said... Why is NY23 a referendum on Sarah Palin, a district that went for Obama in 08, any more of a referendum than NJ and VA were for Obama?
I'm not convinced tonight was a referendum on ANYthing. But if it was, there's evidence its a partial referendum on TP politics itself.
McDonnell hugged the middle so hard during the campaign, one might mistake it for his mother. Added to the fact he didn't have to publicly tickle the belly of the conservative base in a Right-v-Moderate primary fight (even if he may be strongly conservative himself).
Nobody can say with a straight face that the next VA governor won by pushing the TP agenda (or even a Republican one). He won by keeping his party identity out of it as best he could...focusing instead on issue-driven dialogue, job creation, promises of bi-partisanship, campaign ads titled 'Hope', and flat-out proving himself to to be a better campaigner than 'Mr. Deeds'.
(sound familiar, Obama-voters?)
If there's any political lessons to be learned from 11/3/09, one of them might just be this: McDonnell-Way > Palin-Way.
I tend to agree with you. NY 23 is mostly a feel good victory for Dems and a way to deflect the GOP spin that should be rampant tomorrow. The feel good victory for Rs is McDonnell. He's close enough to the teabagger group in his views to give them some satisfaction but knows how to play more mainstream when there is need.
Unfortunately, I think the loss in NY 23 will pretty much relegate the tea baggers to some distant albeit crazy corner and the chances for an R civil war may be dying.
@ HAPPY_GOPer
As a dye in the wool democrat even i was cringing when Deeds ads went on the air. Talk of something man ! Though I do not know how McDonell is going to solve the transportation problem in NoVa without raising taxes. There is simply no other "real" source of funding. He has some pie-in-the-sky ideas that people love but i do not see how that is going to work.
My worry is that facing improbable demands he is going to do what every GOP member has done when it comes to funding infrastructure -- nothing.
Dave..
I feel your pain. Maine was intensely personal and hurtful for me as well.
Hang in there - only with resolve can the LGBT community and its allies obtain full civil rights.
I hope history does NOT make the mistake of painting the Clintons, Obamas, or other (D)s of our day as champions of human/gay rights.
There is, sadly, much room for improvement.
sadly, they have now called ME - Gay Marriage as a WIN for the haters @ YES 53 - 47 NO
once again, equality only came close - but it proves unfortunately that hate will still bring 'em out to the polls [dammit]
they used it here in FL in 2008 as well as CA, so we must continue to expect to keep seeing hate referendum in our future for right-wing political gamesmanship
sure wish that self-described 'fierce advocate' BHO would have taken sides in ME - even if just to say that these issues of civil rights should NOT be put up to a popularity contest - anywhere, ever !!!
72% reporting
Calif. District 10
Winner: John Garamendi DEM
John Garamendi Dem. 57,701 53.3% [under-performing]
David Harmer Rep. 45,653 42.2
===============================
93% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Winner: Bill Owens DEM
Bill Owens Dem. 63,496 49.3% [massively over-performing]
Doug Hoffman Con. 58,161 45.2
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 7,137 5.5
the sad reality is that no political leader can champion gay rights and survive. We have enough intolerant people in our party to scare the political brass. Forget the other side
Blogger PorridgeGun said...
"Fact is, Dems didn't have any good candidates to vote for."
Yeah, it makes you wonder how things might have gone had they nominated someone like Codey or Bradley or Andrews in NJ.
In an era of unpopular incumbents, this should be a wakeup call for Democrats to ditch our worst 2010 candidates while we have the chance.
Doyle has already stepped out of the race, and there's significant movement to oust Paterson. Maybe some other unpopular incumbents should be nudged out too (perhaps Quinn or Patrick).
2010 is a long way off, but there are clearly some races where we would be better off taking our chances on an open seat than rerunning a horribly unpopular incumbent.
Well well. I have to say that overall I am thrilled with tonight. The GOP kicked major donkey ass in Virginia and New Jersey. New Jersey!!
Palin Beck and Limbaugh got their smackdown and now cooler heads will prevail before there is a push to primary Republican officeholders.
Not really a surprise. Well, Christie, maybe. Couldn't see which way Daggett supporters were going to go. Democrats racked up a couple of people who will be going to Washington. So I consider this a good night as well. And I am supremely pleased that Palin, Beck, Limbaugh, et al have been disempowered. Thank GOD! We already let the country sink so low during Cheney's Presidency, er, Rove' uh sorry, Bush's Presidency that I would have joined al quieda if Palin were put in power (Damn, gonna have a CIA dossier after that comment). Oh well.
DCM in FL said...
"my count has it: DEMs +2
CONs -2
As a party, they got hosed where it counts - in DC"
Tonite's result reminds me of last year's primary where, anytime Hillary would score a state popular vote & attendant media headline & overnite bragging rights, the O team would have quietly added a couple more to his delegate lead.
This is coming from someone who voted for Barry...
As the Maine loss sinks in... it repulses me that the President flew up to New Jersey to campaign for a low-life like Corzine yet he couldn't swing by Maine to make a statement.
Yet another slap in the face for the queer community.
Nobel Peace Prize winner? Really?
Palin Beck and Limbaugh got their smackdown and now cooler heads will prevail before there is a push to primary Republican officeholders.
I seriously doubt that, Crist possibly being the exception. I was skeptical before, but I think the Republicans troubles are just beginning. If you hinestly think the fringe FOX/FReeptard/Beck/Limbaugh/Palin wing of the party are gonna cool it now that's they've handed the Dems a congressional seat the Republicans have held since the days of Lincoln, you're delusional. They run the party now. If the party establishment don't give them whatver they want, HELLO third party!
Also, last I checked, McDonnell was nuttier than squirrel turds. The Dem bench in Virginia was cleared of any strong candidates in the Mark Warner, Jim Webb mould, and quite frankly, Criegh Deeds was the gift that kept on giving. I meant it when I said this guy was the worst I've ever seen. He was piss-poor beyond belief. Even Kos wanted to see this guy get his ass handed to him after his antics in the last two weeks. If for no other reason than to prove the point he's making right now.
@Mr. Universe
Wouldn't moving to Canada be easier (and infinitely better)
I would much have preferred that the neofascist Republican had won by a slim (1 or 2 percent) margin. That would have emboldened the idiots to put forth more neofascist Republicans in future races.
Alas, they might actually regroup and come up with a sensible strategy.
We are doomed.
I would have joined al quieda
No worries. Methinks the spelling was butchered enough that you were more likely ordering a Mexican dish. =^)
JACOB
hopefully Specter will take your advice & graciously step aside next year [fat chance]
and I wish Obama would give Lieberman some other platform to embarrass himself in, but where his Senate votes do not count - but where ???
he found an unlikely spot for Hillary...
or dump Lieberman in or before 2012 as an IND/DEM
Wait a sec, Dems are now +2 in congress... Two pick-ups?
Yeah, it makes you wonder how things might have gone had they nominated someone like Codey or Bradley or Andrews in NJ.
In an era of unpopular incumbents, this should be a wakeup call for Democrats to ditch our worst 2010 candidates while we have the chance.
Tonight's actually been a crystal clear lesson for Dems, minus the blood-letting. Of course, progressive blogs have been way ahead on this for months, it's the DC establishment who have to take heed. They really need to wake up, deliver real reform, and be ruthless when it comes to 2010 candidates. For example, if Chris Dodd and Michael Bennnet postion doesn't improve in the new year, ditch them for stronger candidates.
the local news here in central FL tonight led off with story on how the elections today spell bad news for Charlie Crist in his primary next year...
last year they loved him, now the meme is that Crist is goin' down
THEN the same local news proceeded to run a favorable puff-piece interview featuring Marco Rubio & basically touting him as the next senator representing FL...
the worm turns & aint it gonna be fun to watch 'em squirm
IF Crist tacks to the hard right & repudiates Obama & healthcare reform & the stimulus just to win the GOP primary, then he knows he will be damaged good in the general election next November
so it is all good for the FL DEMs to retake a senate seat in 2010 [thanks to Sarah & her political terrorist pals]
No worries. Methinks the spelling was butchered enough that you were more likely ordering a Mexican dish.
You kill me, man. You just kill me.
Wouldn't moving to Canada be easier (and infinitely better)
Hell no. I'm going to fight stupidness with my last breath. This is my country, damnit.
THIS IS GOOD NEWS FOR SARAH PALIN!!!
Sorry, couldn't resist.
@Happy GOPer:
I agree with you; having the moderate GOP pick up some wins while the fringe gets fired up and fails to do anything but make themselves look hateful, dangerous, and out-of-touch.
I'm a liberal, but I want people represented by politicians who aren't beholden to a single ideological line, and honest dialog about how best to govern our nation.
Tonight's been a step back in that direction... but I am sad at Maine's loss.
WV: redless. Amazingly appropriate.
More than any modern "controversy", this issue really takes the hypocrisy of America and Americans and shines a bright light on it.
We are either equal or we are not.
In America, there has never been a time were every American has equal rights.
It is a travesty that people have to fight for equal rights, when it allegedly already exists. If one group of people, or even one person is being discriminated against and denied rights, then none of us are truly free.
The argument starts at equal rights, and is instantly settled at that point, or should be if we actually believed in freedom, pursuit of happiness, and equal rights. Instead, results in California last year, and Maine this year, show that the ideals of America are only a myth. Christian supremacists like Charles try to cloak their hate with twisting studies to fit their viewpoint( the reason suicides are higher is because of intolerant scum like you).
The referendum in Washington(I am a resident living in a mainly red area-the vile Cathy McMorris is our rep) is repugnant, but apparently necessary to baby step into equal rights.
Funny how the "freedom loving teabaggers" want to restrict freedom.
Look, I've long made it known that there I think there is a movement afoot to start a third party. That suits me fine. A party of fools is just that: a ship of fools. Was this a calculated movement by Palin, et al? Hard to say. If it was, I think it fell flat in NY-23.
Hopefully there are fewer stoopid people left in the world.
One thing I want to see in this world is Joe Lieberman exiled from the Democratic party. It is my mission now. I don't care if we don't have a majority in the house (like we ever would do anything with it), I WANT LIEBERMAN GONE!
We have given this guy a pass at least 4 times already. I'm tired of him being the center of attention. I WANT LEIBERMAN GONE. He is a turncoat. A traitor. A Judas. A cancer. A plant in our party. Show him the door now!!!!!!
Seriously, I mean it.
Rats. West coast insomniac. Everybody went to bed.
1) NY-23 was just as big a setback for the fringe conservative Tea Party folks as the defeat of Ned Lamont was for the fringe liberal Kossacks.
2) President Obama has repeatedly stated his opposition to marriage equality. Why would it ever cross anyone's mind that he might possibly campaign in favor of it? You're getting exactly what you voted for last year.
"a district that hasn't voted for a Dem for congress in over 100 years"
Incorrect.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/New_York's_23rd_congressional_district
Gay activists need to wait about 20 years before they can get marriage equity. You need to wait for the senior citizens to die out.
I'm 55 think gay marriage is not really needed but if they want it I really wouldn't stop them. My parents are in their 80's and just can't fathom the whole idea, it's their generation that keeps defeating it.
My kids are 14-26 and really find they whole idea of gay marriage being illegal strange. You need to wait for their generation to become the majority.
Now the teabaggers are claiming victory since they drove the liberal republican out. Expensive lesson, love watching the GOP destruction continue. Next target Crist!
Jim - You cannot use that wikipedia reference to judge whether you think the "district" has gone republican for 150 years or not...the 23rd referenced in that article has changed with redistricting every 10 years or so. You can argue, has Shma has, that specific parts of what is now the 23rd district (which was the 24th district in 2002 and other districts before that) has gone democratic at different times. You could also argue what is the "core" of this district. I have argued, I think correctly, that the core counties that have consistently been grouped together over that period have always gone Republican. But, there have been other counties added and subtracted from that main group over time, including the counties Shma listed. I stand by my list of "core" counties though since they are the group that have *consistently* been grouped together with re-districting.
The fact that gay couples should have to wait 20 years for legal protection is absurd. It's not much comfort to those of us that won't be around in 20 years and will never be given the chance to be married. Doubly absurd is the idea that any of this should be put to a vote in the first place. Basic civil rights should never be put to a popular vote. The courts have, in part, been created to protect populations that are in the minority. I've given up on this country. BHO and the Democrats need to grow a spine and actually throw some weight behind this rather than just pander.
AxmxZ: This race shows that moderate Republican-leaning independents, presented with a hard-core wingnut and a moderate Democrat, will go towards the Democrat. The Teabagging crowd is so ace at self-delusion that it'll manage to convince itself of the opposite: that the key to victory is MORE hard-liners in MORE areas, with MORE aggressive PR. So as weird as this race was, I think it might provide a micro-cosmic preview of what's to come in 2010.
That I can see as a possibility. I don't think NY-23 is terribly predictive for what is coming nationally in 2010; if the economy is bad, a number of Democrats will be in trouble regardless of who their opponents are.
But if things have stabilized, then it may matter in a number of races whether the Republican opponent is moderate or from the tea party wing. And it does look like NY-23 will only encourage more challengers from the right wing.
Happy GOPer: Palin Beck and Limbaugh got their smackdown and now cooler heads will prevail before there is a push to primary Republican officeholders.
I don't think so. There are two problems. First, the primaries won't just be against "Republican officeholders"; they'll be among candidates challenging Democratic officeholders. And not only can't the moderates control the outcomes of those contests, they are not as well organized as the movement conservatives and may constitute a smaller share of their own party as their constituency has fallen overall.
Second, I don' think movement conservatives will be deterred by centrist wins in two governors races and a loss in NY-23. Their goal isn't necessarily to win races; it's to take over the party and make it their own. Some of them see "victory" in NY-23 by virtue of having knocked out the establishment candidate; the rest would have been gravy. I think NY-23 will be more of an enticement than a deterrent. And they can spin NJ and VA as the product of a bad economy when any party with the governorship will have trouble (imagine how much more Christie would have won by had he been a true conservative!).
I'd like to see the saner wing of the Republicans prevail. Perhaps it will. But I don't see this election as quelling the Palin wing, even if that's the best way for the party to go as a whole. It will be interesting to see who the GOP candidates turn out to be in 2010.
Just because Teabaggers are in the minority doesn't mean they are wrong. Are the gays wrong? Just because Hoffman lost doesn't mean big government doesn't need to be stopped. Why, just last weekend Obama and his fascist government made us all turn our clocks back one hour. If that is not big government controlling every aspect of our lives, I don't know what is.
/facetious
//I only trust one news source: http://www.urinalgum.com/?p=658
To the gay folks in here-don't get so upset. As the older white stereotypers die off (my Dad will be one of them) the numbers will start to turn around. Heck, my Dad can't even use the word "gay". He prefers "homosexuals". The change may not come as quickly as we hope, but it will come.
As for this alleged referendum against Obama: Poppycock! The more the infatuated media covers the wingnuts like Palin et. al. the more empowered those attention whores will feel. This is all good news for us Dems.
It's obvious that most Americans are disgusted by their hatred. Better days are ahead of us and I wish the left wingers would back off Obama as they may have a negative effect almost like the teabaggers will. The dude may not be perfect, but the realities of the beltway are sadly trumping the speed for change.
For Christ sakes give the guy a little more time.
Marriage equality is simply a matter of time, as the homophobes of my generation slowly die off.
As for NY-23, I found it interesting that labor rights was the issue that sent the wingnuts off the cliff. Scozzafava actually had a pretty conservative voting history in the NY legislature, but her husband's a union guy so she supports EFCA. There was a time when you could be a Republican and still believe that workers have a right to join, form and organize unions (hell, John L. Lewis was a Republican), but that time is long gone.
btw I'm still waiting for MPM to apologize to Nate. I think it will be a long wait. Sarah Palin, the gift that keeps on giving.
Oh My God! what a bunch of haters! I see comments like Stewart's here about just waiting for the old white dudes to "die off"... meaning his DAD!!! Wow! what a prick you must be Stewart! Your dad may not be a great person either, but what a little worm you are.
And for those of you who can't stand the idea of others (gasp... a majority?) having a different opinion... GET A GRIP!!!!! You have this really warped idea that if people hold a different opinion than you that they should be shunned or worse, die off. How arrogant of you. While I agree that we would all be better off with tolerance and acceptance towards gays/blacks/eskimos/whatever, I would never presume to force my opinions on anyone else. Turns out, reasonable people can disagree, and these people you scoff at are every bit as reasonable as you are (although you are incapable of understanding that). Those of you who cry loudest for tolerance and equality are only for tolerance and equality of others as long as their views agree with yours. your indignation of their intolerance brings out your own intolerance! It is so ironic that it is funny. I would laugh, but you are also pathetic and sad.
Tai said...
~~~~~~~~~~
Projection much? Indeed, pathetic and sad!
Ye protests too much, eh.
If one is not part of the solution, one is part of the problem ...
take care
I guess you told me shiloh!
You are the precisely the type of closed-minded person I was talking about. The first step to solving a problem is identifying the problem. or in your case, admitting that you have a problem. This is something that is currently beyond the grasp of your closed mind.
you are not part of the problem... you are the problem! and until you understand that, you will continue to be marginalized.
you, shiloh, are pathetic and sad.
have a good night!
Tai said...
~~~~~~~~~~
Complaining about closed-minded folk w/different opinions and no solutions who call others names at the same time offering no solutions yourself and calling people names.
Classic!
As I said, projection.
And as this is the frickin' internet, would suggest you are the one who needs to get a grip and are the one wound too tight! as your (2) posts were totally over the top laced w/ad hominems and anger.
You have a good night! also ...
not anger... sadness. and no, my posts were not "totally over the top laced w/ ad hominems and anger" (you almost used "ad hominem" correctly there). your second post: "And as this is the frickin' internet, would suggest you...", not sure what this being the "frickin' internet" has to do with your statement.
Be that as it may, I was making an observation that many on this thread were every bit the intolerant hater as those they are wailing about. but you say you want a solution... I would have thought that it would be obvious. Stop Hating! Open your minds! Understand that just because someone has a different view as yours (and I agree that the homophobes and racists hold outdated closed-minded ideas), that doesn't mean that they don't have the right to hold these views. Turns out, they have that right. I suppose, to be fair, that you have the right to write them off and wish death upon them, but you are only substituting your hatred for theirs.
And if you read over my posts, you will see that, while I may have described you as closed-minded, pathetic, and sad, I did not call you names. (are we in third grade here..."ms jones, tai called me a name!") Stewart wishes for his father's death. I do not retract what I said about him. and I stand by with my assessment of many on this thread who are so full of hate that they cannot accept the (admittedly neanderthal) views of others.
As for your "Classic!", I would say it is ironic that you would say it, in that you are the one exhibiting the classic behavior here. you are a clone of so many of the people out there who are so deluded that they think they are really open minded.
no anger here... just sadness.
but, top of the morning to you!
Tai, you have (3) posts at the end of this thread, none of which concern the subject matter, but all of them personal attacks on poster(s) who bother you and make you feel sad, or shall I say attacking internet "etiquette" you don't like.
And if one is truly sad, you can just ignore this thread altogether, eh.
Again, Ye protests too much.
g'day
p.s. please feel free to make another longgg rant about pathetic posters who bother you and make you feel sad ;)
"You're pathetic and angry."
"No YOU'RE pathetic and angry."
Damn, Tai if you want enlightened opinions on issues of the day don't spend all your time on an online comment board.
The interwebs isn't about winning the debate. It's about the fun of the argument.
And I don't know that anyone is wishing death on the old folks, just acknowledging that--much like with the old folks of the sixties--this issue won't be resolved until they die.
Thought I could help. Guess it is true... you can lead a closed mind to new ideas, but you can't make it think.
good luck to you. you will need it.
Post a Comment