Here are the seven races that we'll be making at least some effort to track for you tonight:
Polling averages are from Pollster.com, except for CA-10 and Referendum 71 where there's only one recent independent poll available and I'm just listing that verbatim. Our previews of the races can be found at the links below:
Virginia
Maine Question 1
New Jersey
NYC
NY-23: (original; revised; re-revised)
CA-10
Washington Referendum 71
Consider this your 'homethread' for the night. There will of course be frequent updates, although some of the shorter stuff I'm going to post to the sleeping giant that we call the 538 Twitter feed. You don't have to go offsite to see the tweets as they're also contained in the box in the top RH side of the page.
I will be on WNYC periodically throughout the night, and on Morning Meeting (MSNBC) again tomorrow from 9-11 AM.
Have fun and play nice -- this is turning out to be a much more interesting election night than it looked like it would be even a few weeks ago.
11.03.2009
Election Night Overview
@ 6:20 PM
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173 comments
Nate,
May tonight be the beginning of your waterloo...
We shall see..... Hopefully McDonnell doesn't beat out Deeds by double digits
MR, if you hate it so much here, no one is stopping you leaving.
Tonight is Nate's Waterloo? What a clown...
It's interesting though that even this morning I hear the media spinning it like the Virginia race is still competitive while not mentioning the California race which is still nominally closer (more likely that there could actually be an upset.)
Even today I've heard reports on the Virginia race that if I didn't know anything else, seemed to suggest that there was still a race going on there. What have they been smoking?
Mule Rider is supporting the Democrats in NJ and VA...or maybe Daggett.
Let's go DAGGETT! Surprise everyone!
@yologuy
He has a dream! A bitter, bitter dream that is a proxy fight against his own feeling of impotence. But it's a dream. :)
@Nate
Nice touch putting a strike-through on Dede. :P
@ Peistratus:
It is. The margin of McDonnell's victory will determine the course of the House of Delegates races in Virginia. Deeds isn't running to win... Deeds is running to save as many Dems stuck in the Republican cross-hairs as possible.
Oh, and ... BTW, still not sure I buy the meme that Democrats should be rooting for Hoffman.
Of course not. There is plenty of momentum for escalation of the GOP civil war, and plenty of scapegoats and room for rationalizaiton for a Hoffman lose in NY-23. That's going to take years yet to settle out and calm down. A loss in some little soon-to-be-defunct district in upstate NY isn't gonig to convince them one way or another. It'll take at least 3 House cycles in minority plus a humiliation in a Presidential election with them having their say on the tickets before the faithful will begin to doubt this path.
Looks like we have little more than an hour to wait before the polls close in ME, NY, NJ & VA.
Local news is reporting much higher turnout in Maine than expected -- somewhere between 50 and 60%, instead of the predicted 35%. All the polls I saw indicated that the higher the turnout, the better for NO on 1. Hooray for civic-minded Mainers!
The reason everyone's ignoring CA-10 is that it's a D+10-15 district or thereabouts that went for Obama 65-31. Garamendi might be a relatively weak candidate, but the outcome remains a foregone conclusion.
Intrade just jumped 80/20 for Corzine.
The shenanigans are plentiful about now in Essex / Hudson county in New Jersey. However many votes or dead bodies are needed in these counties .. the Democrats will get them. I have been in NJ for 40+ years and the same thing happens every election.
I think someone must have gotten a hold of some early NJ exit polls over at intrade...
Hopefully this means good news for the governor!
Here’s why people get so confused over these “overturn” propositions. At top is the link on “Google News” with an erroneous headline. There is no ban on gay marriage in Maine—there is a law recognizing it however.
Only when you click through to the LA Times article do you see the truth (at bottom) that voters are being asked to overturn the law sanctioning gay marriage, not overturn a ban on gay marriage, since there isn’t one.
Does anyone knows what sites are having the results on their site as they get reported, like cnn and all them did on election night?
You can see it in the faces of Chuckie T and Chris Matthews: Corzine has lost.
petekent01 (on twitter)
Boy, PeteKent, you can make a fortune on intrade then, where Corzine is currently trading at 66%.
TPM's keeping running results on their front page, though you have to scroll down a bit. They don't have CA-10 or WA-71 listed.
Even NY's favorite "john" former Governor Elliot )I want her to swallow not) Spitzer, looks miserable, biting on his thumb.
Air out of the tires of the Libs. They look so deflated.
Spitzer: "It's antipathy to Wall St, to Goldman Sachs."
Corzine has lost, by 5% at least.
petekent01 (on twitter)
I expect that actual NJ voters will probably give Christie an edge but if he doesn't win by 2% or more, enough votes will be 'found' to put Corzine over the top. It happened last year to get Adler into Congress. It will happen again, Pete K.
anyone hear what the turnout in NY is like?
And Pete, Chris M. is downbeat since McDonnell hung Obama on Deeds and it might be a historic night for the Repubs in the state. A 11+ point plus win would be almost unprecedented .. a 17-point swing from D to R in 1 year.
NJ Mod:
You are right to fear election fraud, esp when dealing with a Billionaire Democratic Politician like Corzine. He could drop a million on ACORN to "find" him votes and could claim he didn't even know the money was spent -- its a rounding error to him.
FYI: Reports out of NY are that the biggest early voting districts were the ones that McCain carried.
Christie will win easily, ALL the enthusiasm is on the anti-Obama side and this will sink Corzine like a stone. Good riddance to the corrupt investment banker from Wall Street!
Tonight the people begin to take back America from the closet Maoists!
petekent01 (on twitter)
I see tonight as a possible libertarian sweep. Which is great news for me! I don't agree with the politics of this site, but the analysis is top notch. Thanks for the thoughtful accurate predictions!
Chris is crying bc he has seen the early exit poll nos. Notice they seem to be embargoing the NJ demographics.
The Libs wrote off VA weeks ago, they are stung by the NJ loss bc there is now way to spin it except as "a message to President Obama".
Worse: This means healhtcare reform along the lines that the Maoists in the Obama administration would impose on us just died.
petekent01 (on twitter)
@njmoderate
...17-point swing in 1 year...
VA did not have a gubernatorial election one year ago. Please tell me you and petetwit01 are not asinine enough to believe that Virginians only elect their governors based on what they think of the President.
MikeHinton, we could use a little bit of libertarianism now so who are you looking at tonight? Any delegate, state races where there is an interesting candidate?
Looks like McDonnell leads 64-36 with 12% of precincts reporting:
http://www.sbe.virginia.gov/cms/Election_Information/Election_Results/2009/November_General_Election.html
Jacob:
By the VA exit polls, 24% of the people are voting against Deeds as a potest against Obama as a protest in VA while 18% are voting for Deeds to support Obama. That is a net -6% and when you contrast that by people who voted for Obama as opposed to voting against McCain in 2008, it is at least a 17% switch. I have many relatives in VA (since I was born there) and they are certain that Obama would lose the state now.
Maoists?
Not for the first time I ask my self just what drugs the right in this country are on.
I am not seeing the Libertarian Sweep.
What these results mean is that finally the GOP had found its voice and its strategy: Return to Being the Party of Small Government.
This will require some internal housekeeping (witness the decimation of the Schivazza in NY 23), but is the precise theme on which first the Congressional Dems and then Obama can be defeated.
Our President is far too ideologically pure and dedicated to his Maoist priciples to ever consider Clinton style triangulation. For this he will suffer, most likely at the hands of Mrs. Clinton!
The era of Social Conservatism as an issue is over. The GOP can return its Reagan past and forge a potent electoral majoirty.
petekent01 (on twitter)
Um, PeteKent, which is it you want, the GOP to be the party of "small government" or the GOP to "return to its Reagan past"? The two are mutually incompatible.
yoink:
You have not been paying attention. The Obama admistration is littered with Maoists. If you paid attention to anything other than the nitrous oxide feed on MSNBC you'd already know this.
petekent01 (on twitter)
Im pretty sure Reagan is not someone libertarians want to aspire to. He wasnt exactly frugal with the federal govt's money during his time in office. Sure he cut taxes, but if govt spending keeps going up the people are going to pay eventually.
As I write this, only one county in Va. is 100% reported - King and Queen county. In 2008, Obama won it 52-48. This year, McDonnell carried it 59-41, an 11-point gain. Is this county odd, or will it represent a statewide shift? Let's speculate wildly!
Wow and here I thought the wingers calling Obama "socialist" were ignorant. This is the first time I've heard "maoist" come out though.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Maoism
Maybe not as off-the-wall retarded as using the term "fascist" but pretty close.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fascism
I guess it's all the same sort of fingers-in-their-ears shrieking though, huh?
Silent Cal, that probably portends an epic landslide in VA, more on the order of 14-15 points vs. 10-11 points. A margin like that would make any incumbent scared in 2010 and 2012.
Let's hear all those NY-23 libertarians, "Keep the government out of our military bases!"
The right wingers are really pulling out all the rhetorical stops tonight. To paraphrase:
"Forget stats! Forget logical analysis! Because mostly Republicans are winning the small number of races tonight, this has to be interpreted as a message to the moaist crazies running the country. Oh, oh! ALSO, it is the last nail in the coffin for health reform. OBVIOUSLY!"
Who, exactly, do you people think you are convincing with this crap? Newsflash: I know Fox is "king" of cable ratings, but a very small percentage of people actually listen to that crap. Running around using codewords spewed by the likes of Beck and Malkin isn't going to impress people. You really sound nuts.
Sorry for the rant...Shaping up to be an exciting, though small, election night.
Mr. Kent, please point me in the direction of some discussion of the Maoist movement in U.S. Government.
NJ
LOL - that is some kinda 'voodoo' math ya got going there to calculate a 17 point swing...
also, this is NOT the same universe of voters compared to last year in terms of #'s, turn-out & demographics - so a direct comparison is not correct
now, it is far & balanced to go down inside the final #'s AFTER the data is tallied to compare apples to apples
but YOU are drawing specious conclusions based on limited data & that is just WRONG
at least attach an IMHO - cuz that is all ya got [an opinion]. right up there with PK's babbling.
I see that after a year when he spammed the exact same stuff here last Nov, PK [Pete the Parrot] is still hard at it spreading his web of delusional fantasy scenarios & outright intentional lies
still sad & pathetic imho
Oh, snap! Despite the right's breathless exclamations to the contrary, seems like voters aren't really voting for or against Obama tonight:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2009/11/03/politics/politicalhotsheet/entry5514455.shtml
"Still, majorities of voters in both states (55 percent in Virginia and 60 percent in New Jersey) said President Obama was not a factor in their vote today. Those who said Mr. Obama was a factor in New Jersey divided as to whether their vote was a vote for the president (19 percent) or against him (20 percent). In Virginia, slightly fewer voters said their vote was for Mr. Obama (18 percent) than against him (24 percent)."
But don't let this stop you from believing EVERYTHING is about Obama.
Jacob,
"Cons" are probably referring to this quote by Anita Dunn, Obama's communications director.
"# ^ More complete quote from Dunn: The third lesson and tip actually comes from two of my favorite political philosophers: Mao Zedong and Mother Theresa -- not often coupled with each other, but the two people I turn to most to basically deliver a simple point which is: you're going to make choices; you're going to challenge; you're going to say why not; you're going to figure out how to do things that have never been done before. But here's the deal: These are your choices, they are no one else's. In 1947, when Mao Zedong was being challenged within his own party on his plan to basically take China over. Chiang Kai-shek and the Nationalist Chinese held the cities, they had the army, they had the air force, they had everything on their side. And people said, "How can you win? How can you do this? How can you do this, against all of the odds against you?" And Mao Zedong said, you know, "You fight your war, and I'll fight mine." And think about that for a second. You don't have to accept the definition of how to do things and you don't have to follow other peoples choices and paths. Ok? It is about your choices and your path. You fight your own war, you lay out your own path, you figure out what's right for you. You don't let external definition define how good you are internally, you fight your war, you let them fight theirs. Everybody has their own path."
debeus said...
Looks like McDonnell leads 64-36 with 12% of precincts reporting
One thing to keep in mind about Virginia. Some rural areas go heavily republican and often report early because they have far fewer voters. However, the cities often wash them away when they start reporting. Unfortunately I don't expect that to happen tonight.
I'm surprised it took them as long to call Virginia as it did.
In the 5th (Perriello's district), McDonnell's up by 29 with 36% reporting. McDonnell's up 23 (very early) in the 2nd (Nye) that was one of the big swings last year.
Not that anyone expected a great night after the polling, of course.
NJ Mod said:
By the VA exit polls, 24% of the people are voting against Deeds as a potest against Obama as a protest in VA while 18% are voting for Deeds to support Obama. That is a net -6% and when you contrast that by people who voted for Obama as opposed to voting against McCain in 2008, it is at least a 17% switch. I have many relatives in VA (since I was born there) and they are certain that Obama would lose the state now...
....but omitted the other key data from exit polls, that the turnout of young people and minorities dropped by more than 15% and 10% respectively. VA's electorate today was a lot older and whiter than last November.
If Obama were on the ballot, I think we can bet his peeps would turn out for him.
All today proves (if anybody doubted it) is that Creigh Deeds is no Barack Obama.
Pat,
Sounds like decent advice. Who is this Zedong fellow? A communist, you say? That can't be right.
@Mule Rider
May tonight be your swansong, douchebag.
Corzine all but applied his lips to Obama's buttocks during his many trips up to this state. If, somehow, Corzine loses tonight, then the Pete Kent's of the world can claim that tonight is a protest vote against Obama as I got numerous phone messages stating .. show your support for Obama, vote Democratic/Corzine/Democratic ticket on November 3rd. I don't believe the 57% approval rating for Obama in the exit poll, because if that is the case, Corzine will win by 3% (at least).
"I have many relatives in VA (since I was born there) and they are certain that Obama would lose the state now."
I love how people predict doom 9 months into his presidency while he's still holding the flaming bag of crap the Bush Admin handed him. If Obama gets us out of Iraq, the economy has fully turned around and we have healthcare reform, Obama will probably win again in VA.
I've got to go teach class. Will somebody please serve the trolls their comeuppance in my absence?
Is there any website to watch the results come in for Maine? I've checked the Secretary of State's website and they don't have anything up for this election.
Mr Universe: nobody does it like you do.
Amanda: I couldn't find official results either, but the New York Times website has Maine:
http://elections1.ec2.nytimes.com/2009/results/other.html
Amanda: Maine's ABC affiliate, wmtw, just promised continually updating results on their website. Nothing yet, though.
www.wmtw.com
On the voting to "reject Obama" logic...
It looks like 62% of Mainers voted for a Republican Senator in 2008, a simultaneous 20-point swing from the 58% of them voted for Obama.
Whaaaaat?
Mainers were clearly voting to reject Obama...on the same day that they elected him.
the reason tonight is much more interesting to nate than it seemed a few weeks ago is that all polls that nate spent some time on implying were not credible or outright saying weren't credible turned to be a little more credible than nate advertised. a lesson to be learned perhaps?
Early returns from NJ have Christie pasting Corzine 2 to 1.
Obama is getting spanked tonight!
MSNBC Update: per Bathtub Boy (Olbermann) the race to watch is some San Fran Congress race. The spinmeisters at GE are working overtime to find a positive crust for BHO in tonight's vote, the first uncontrovertable evidence that the Tea Party movement and the Summer Townhalls were not chimeras dreamed up by Fox News to haunt the Democrats, but simply the van of a wave destined to wipe the Pretender and his Politburo from office.
petekent01 (on twitter)
@NJ_Moderate
"Corzine all but applied his lips to Obama's buttocks during his many trips up to this state. If, somehow, Corzine loses tonight, then the Pete Kent's of the world can claim that tonight is a protest vote against Obama as I got numerous phone messages stating .. show your support for Obama, vote Democratic/Corzine/Democratic ticket on November 3rd. I don't believe the 57% approval rating for Obama in the exit poll, because if that is the case, Corzine will win by 3% (at least)."
So let me get this straight. Because the Dems used Obama to advertise for Corzine, a win by his challenger means the voters were really voting against Obama. Uh huh. So I guess this applies to EVERY candidate today as well. If NY 23 goes Dem, does that mean it is a protest again Sarah Palin?
BTW, love the use of the word protest. All of a sudden any show of dissent is patriotic Americans rising up in protest against the evil, socialist government. No. Screw restraint: COMMUNIST government.
Unbelievable.
Thanks, debeus and Jessica! Looks good so far for no on 1, although obviously it's way too soon to tell (something our friend PeteKent ought to remember, haha).
be careful there Pete the Parrot - you are gonna wet yourself...
ans WHY exactly is CA-10 any less important tha NY-23 ???
hhhmmm, CA-10 will go MORE progressive, and NY-23 may go more CON
looks like DC will be a wash - nothing more
but all three of your HATE referendums are doing poorly...
Just curious... when did Pete Kent become so hideously awful? When I was here a year ago I recall that he was actually sort of cute, in an annoying, puppyish kind of way. Winsome, even.
Now he's practically frothing at the mouth. He's like the ragged maniac who screams at people while handing out soiled, smudgy pamphlets on the street corner.
Maybe that's the only way to survive in the GOP anymore. You need to go totally batshit crazy.
Sad, ain't it?
"Obama is getting spanked tonight!"
Funny, I didn't see him on the ballot when I went to vote in VA. I saw Bill O'Reilly responding to his correspondent who said that NJ voters (per exit polls) were basically a wash on whether Obama was on their minds in this election (20% positive, 20% negative, 60% not at all), and he said "It doesn't matter, if the Republicans win New Jersey, it's a huge defeat to Obama." In other words, screw the data if it disagrees with me. I see you take the same stance. Enjoy.
Adam was right -- there was a fortune to be made on Intrade betting against Corzine. He just broke below 50 to 48.
@PeteKent
"Obama is getting spanked tonight!"
Bwa-ha-ha.
Last I checked, Obama wasn't up for re-election for another few years and exit polls showed that most of today's voters were voting *gasp* on the issues and candidates at hand, NOT Barack Obama.
And how classy: politburo. Not enough to go for socialist, eh? You just had to pull out the commie references. What a patriot: using name calling, innuendo and poor logic to turn reality on its head. Somebody get this guy in a suit and on Fox news!
Though the night is young, I want to say "Nate Mahalos, you rule!". Though it is trying to endure the redundant troll comments that seem to never go away here, (do you folks have jobs?), just remember what the late, great Patrick Moynihan once said, "Gentlemen you are welcome to your opinions, but not the facts", Nate, your observation that neither GOP Gov. candidates identified themselves as Republicans in their ads, spoke volumes. You are "The Man".
A 11+ point plus win would be almost unprecedented .. a 17-point swing from D to R in 1 year.
2004 presidential race: GOP +8.2
2005 gubernatorial race: DEM +5.7
13.9-point swing
2000 presidential race: GOP +8.1
2001 gubernatorial race: DEM +5.2
13.3-point swing
Almost as if they were different races.
Damn Politburo. Can't even manage to cancel PK's twitter account. Why did I vote for that Poltiburo, anyway?
keep track of the Maine results here:
http://www.bangordailynews.com/electionresults.html
The bottom has dropped out of Corzine on In Trade.
Be careful overinterpreting the Exit Polls re this election being a referendum on Obama. Our President uses Stalinist tactics and discipline to silence dissent and many conservatives and independence are rightfully fearful of public criticism of the "chosen one".
Christie will run 5 to 10 pts ahead of the Exit Polls. Watch the Progressives continue to try and steal away more secret ballots in American life.
petekent01 (on twitter)
petekent01 (on twitter)
@Rudy
"Adam was right -- there was a fortune to be made on Intrade betting against Corzine. He just broke below 50 to 48."
And this is exactly why their projections shouldn't be trusted. I think the guys trading over there are like stampeding cattle, running mad in the direction of the smallest rumor. I agree it sounds like there is money to be made gaming the herd...
"Our President uses Stalinist tactics and discipline to silence dissent and many conservatives and independence are rightfully fearful of public criticism of the "chosen one"."
I am enjoying PeteKent's satirical critique of the Republican party. I don't know about you communists.
filistro…
This is where Pete Twit comes when he’s handed out all the grubby tracts on the street corner.
:o) :o) :o)
I’m guessing his personality is due to some sort of drug problem—he’s tweaking perhaps? Such rapid-fire lunacy is characteristic of guys on meth; the idiocies come flying out like machine-gun fire. That is, if machine-guns shot miniature marshmallows.
Frothing at the mouth is right:
"Our President uses Stalinist tactics and discipline to silence dissent and many conservatives and independence are rightfully fearful of public criticism of the 'chosen one'. "
Wow. Just wow.
I get a vision of a guy holed up with heavy artillery and way too much canned food. The misplaced paranoia is just a tad scary.
Sleep with your eyes open or comrad Obama is gunna getcha!
I dont see why people arent covering the fascinating Atlanta mayor's race or the Houston mayor's race.
Take a look at the VA results -- Now that is a landslide!
BTW if Christie wins by 7% (I figure the floor on his margin is 5%, so 7% is an easy call), will you all agree that HE (Christie) won by a Landslide?
In the age of Obama we are told that Landslides start at 7% (oh, and unemployment is good for us!).
Current Christie lead: 17 pts over Obama, err, I mean Corzine.
petekent01 (on twitter)
also ME has a Medical Marijuana referendum
or are those getting too passe now to cover ?
but some posters seem to be smokin' a little sumthin' sumthin'
@DUB-B
The NYT is:
http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/other.html
But I don't think their polls have closed yet.
--Greg
Petey -- you are projecting off of two counties. Surely you have more than one working brain cell. Lets get the Philly and newark numbers and talk then.
The "fascination" in the Atlanta Mayor's race may come in the next few weeks if Reed or Borders ends up in a runoff with Norwood.
If you think the racial sniping's bad now...
I don't know much about VA . . . but my impression is that Corzine has been an ineffective gov. Also, NJ's unemployment rate is at a multi-decade high. So I'd say that IF anyone wants to think of this is a referendum on Obama . . . if Corzine doesn't lose by more than 10 points, I'd say it's a vote of confidence for Obama.
Does CNN have the results on their site? the New Jersey Board of Elections site isn't doing it for me.
ChiCliff: "THEY" don't make projections at Intrade. They put their money where their mouth is. All day long the traders had to listen to the media try to prop up Corzine, and it affected the market price. Then, once the polls closed and the sequestered data was released, the stampede began.
Christie lead at 10% with 14% in. The math will start to get tough for Corzine if he can't bring Christie down to mid single digits by the time we get to 20% in.
Have no hope Dems: McDonnell is winning by much more than anyone thought he would. If the polls said NJ was tied, you can expect a Christie win by some five percent or more -- might even be a landslide of Obama-like proportions!
petekent01 (on twitter)
http://elections.nytimes.com/2009/results/new-jersey.html
We may quibble about how much of tonight's results are or aren't a referendum on congress and Obama, but one thing's for sure: Nancy Pelosi ain't going to be having a health care vote anytime soon.
Nancy Pelosi ain't going to be having a health care vote anytime soon.
Huh? Its coming down the pike.
It's not looking good in Maine. Notice that although only 2 or 3 percent of the vote is in, the same people who are voting FOR expanding medical marijuana, AGAINST putting limits on tax increases, and AGAINST tax decreases are voting FOR rejecting gay marriage. If the hippies and "tax-and-spenders" aren't choosing equality, then tonight is really going to suck for gay marriage. What is wrong with people?
NY Times results link here. There’s a separate tab here for the New Jersey race.
Bangor Daily News results link here.
The exits will be re-weighted based on actual turnout. I find it a bit hard to believe that Obama is at 52% approval in VA when the Dem is getting smoked by 12-14 points.
Despite that it means Obama is next to useless as a midterm campaigner if a 52% approval gets you smoked this bad in a swing state.
A secret weapon he is not.
"Nate: "Maine results are confusing so far, little correlation between how Q1 is doing in various counties and how Obama did last year"
That's not at all confusing. Maine conservatives are by and large libertarians, not social conservatives ,and believe that people should be allowed to live how they please.
Dave Warren. You're looking at the results wrong. No vote on Maine 1 is a GOOD THING for gay marriage
Governor
Governor Candidate Party Votes Pct.
Christopher J. Christie Rep. 319,549 49.6%
Jon S. Corzine Dem. 283,501 44.0 Incumbent
28% in
Blogger Rudy said...
"Nancy Pelosi ain't going to be having a health care vote anytime soon."
Well Rudy, Pelosi has given us many reasons to doubt her leadership, but I don't think even she would be spineless enough to give up on the Democrats' signature legislation just b/c of two gubernatorial races (one of which is still up in the air) and one house seat that's staying in Republican hands. Reid, maybe.
sniperct, I know that NO on 1 is the rights-affirming choice and agree it's the good choice. The problem is that you can see in the early results that folks who would be expected to vote NO on 1 are instead voting YES on 1 (those voting for expansion of medical marijuana and against a limit on tax increases are showing way less support for NO on 1). If that trend holds up, it won't be a fun night. But I'll wait until more numbers come in.
SNIPERCT
in ME the #'s flipped a few minutes ago
@ 2% counted, YES was slightly ahead
@ 5% counted, it is now NO 54-45
that is a good change- BUT I have little confidence in such small early return samples...
in NJ the one thing that is clear is that the polling support #'s for Daggett appears to have collapsed [to Christie's advantage perhaps]
Any Mainers know what folks think the chances are of the medical marijuana referendum passing? Right now, YES on that question has 12.5 percentage points more support than does NO on 1. And NO on 1 is only winning 51-49. So if the gap between YES on pot and NO on 1 holds, YES on pot needs to pass with at least 61 percent of the vote. (This back-of-the-envelope analysis was done with 9 percent of the vote in.)
Uh, Rudy. >knock-knock< Anybody home up there?
Regarding your comment that tonight’s results mean no healthcare reform legislation, how can that be when only two Congressional races were held today, neither of which will reflect a party change, and that reform will be voted on before the end of the year, when the composition of the Congress will be exactly the same as it has been since Ted Kennedy’s replacement was sworn in?
Next time you might want to plug your brain in and warm it up a little before posting here.
PRAG
and the soon to be new DEM in CA-10 is much more progressive than the blue-dawg he is replacing
45% of registered voters went to the polls in ME
13% reported
NO 52.5 %
yes 47.5 %
GO NO !!!
We'll see, Prag. You need to stop making such linear analysis. Sure, she's got the same cast of players as yesterday, but don't you think the arm-twisting is going to be a little more difficult tomorrow? We'll see.
Youse guys just won't believe it's so until Rachel and Keith tell you the facts of life, complete with the villian roster.
Just keep up that spin that this is really a good thing for your side -- you didn't want any of those ol' sour grapes, anyway.
Rudy said...
nothing worth reading ... LMAO
spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin spin
Holy crap is Deeds getting smeared!
Wow.
Exit polls suck.
Rudy - maybe the death panels will spare people like you that haven't learned to read and process information and think.
The only vote I care about are Me and Wa.
Ny-23 is a gift to the democratic party.
I think Corzine will squeak it out, though I don't really care.
DCM in FL…
Remember that the percentage of voters who voted in Maine changes as more results come in, so turnout is still up in the air.
I notice the NJ race is still whipsawing—last I checked Christie was up by about 5%, after having been up over 10% just a while ago, having surged from an earlier lead of 5%. Has anybody put up predictions regard the trends (or lack thereof) in NJ so far? (I mean any news outfit, not PK or Rudy or any of the other wishers/hopers here, or Faux Noise.)
Corzine is done.
53% in and down by 4.5%.
If Christie breaks 50% this will be a statement.
Still....Virginia.
20 points. Amazing.
My feeling is that intrade is responding to the returns and it exactly echoes the returns coming in.
NJ is a tight one and those Newark votes have been slow and stuck at 19% reporting.
I would say too close to call :-) But I am just an onlooker with no serious knowledge on this stuff.
Something weird going on with the results on Politico:
http://www.politico.com/election/2009/maps/#/NJ
They have Corzine winning 63-25 in Sussex county. This is a county that Corzine LOST 60-35 and McCain won 60-39 over Obama. Looks like someone at politico or (their data source the AP) switched the names here.
Hope this is not part of some fraud.
NBC News calls NYC for Bloomberg.
Oh, very good, Oct! Did you learn those tactics in your freshman debate class? That's it! Call the opposition stupid if they don't agree with you! That way, you're always right and never have to argue the merits! You learn well from Al Gore, among others.
You forget, Republicans can't stop the health care legislation. It's an internecene battle because of the refusal to do something less than turn the system upside down.
Lionel, the NY Times has the same numbers for Sussex County, so it's probably not a mistake on Politico's part. Could be an error in reporting from AP or something weird going on with the votes there.
NY Times reports:
Owens leading Hoffman, 50.8-45.3%!
...with <1% reporting (675 to 601), LOL.
Hey, it's still early.
...And right after I posted that comment, the names switched: NY Times has Christie ahead 64-26 in Sussex. Looks like it was a reporting error that's been corrected.
The New York Times had the same error in Sussex County, but they've fixed it.
Rudy once again said... nothing ... lol
Try please to craft an argument which makes some sense. The type the WORD VERIFICATION and hit post.
For example, state how these elections matter in terms of health care. The worst argument I have heard. Obama was elected on a Health Care platform, my man, and he smoked McCain and the beloved Palin. Are we going to change course because of the VA race or the NJ gov. LMAO. That is funny stuff?
I though the vote against Palin already showed you nutwings that the country doesnt want these crazies in the Whitehouse after 'W'. LMAO
N.Y. District 23
8% reporting
Votes Pct.
Bill Owens Dem. 5,194 53.4%
Doug Hoffman Con. 4,127 42.4
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 407 4.2
wow- Owens is up !!!!
This is a historic night and a massive message to Washington. For a pro-life candidate to win statewide in NJ .. it's absolutely astounding. What this means is that if the health care bill is rammed through and the economy is still mediocre or worse next fall, the 1994 elections will be viewed as the 'good old days' by the Democrats. For a Republican to win Gloucester county .. it is like a Republican winning King county in Washington .. it never happens.
Owens' lead, of course, is very early and possibly ephemeral. We have no info re. which precincts are reporting.
Nonetheless, the results are starting to come in. It's possible that we'll have a winner by 11 PM EST.
Here's one fact which may have some indications for how health care reform might go -
I just found out that Deeds said he would want to "opt out" of a Public Option, if this choice was presented to governors. This may have contributed to the lack of enthusiasm for him, and the low Democratic turnout in Virginia.
How does this relate to the chances for health care reform? It indicates that health care reform - and, specifically, the public option - is so important to Democratic voters that they are willing to soundly punish someone who will not support it.
There will be immense pressure on vacillating senators. This is going to get done.
Hmmm, not sure that early call for the NYC mayor's race was a good idea. Bloomberg has a pretty tiny lead right now (49.0 to 47.7, according to the NY Times) and only 22% of the vote is in. I know Bloomberg's the favorite, but I'm still keeping an eye on this one.
"I just found out that Deeds said he would want to "opt out" of a Public Option, if this choice was presented to governors. This may have contributed to the lack of enthusiasm for him, and the low Democratic turnout in Virginia."
He was slightly more ambiguous than that, but he did express opposition to a public option in the last gubernatorial debate. In large part Deeds's campaign is the cause of poor turnout by Obama voters in VA....there was no candidate on the governor's ticket that represented Democratic views.
Yeah, NBC is withdrawing their call of the race. NYT still maintains the Bloomberg win though.
"For a pro-life candidate to win statewide in NJ .. it's absolutely astounding."
Cart, please wait for horse. On the other hand, your approach worked great for Dewey.
18% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens Dem. 13,780 51.1%
Doug Hoffman Con. 11,719 43.5
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 1,442 5.4
GO OWENS !!!
Openleft says NO is up 57-43. Not sure how accurate that is.
Times is safe - Bloomie will win by AT LEAST 10 points. Looking somewhat promising for Owens too (but not for Corzine)! btw where do you get these #s? CNN is hopelessly sluggish in updating
MSNBC has called it for Christie.
CNN hasn't called NJ yet.
Hmmm the Bloomberg.com news section seems curiously silent on the mayoral race
NY Times New Jersey results
NY Times Other Races results
You have to keep hitting F5 to refresh the numbers.
politico is calling NJ for Christie
w/80.4% precincts reporting
31% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens Dem. 23,455 51.1%
Doug Hoffman Con. 20,116 43.9
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 2,294 5.0
Maine's been tightening up (50.5-49.5, 28% reporting);
Owens' lead is surprisingly steady (51-44, 31%);
And put a fork in Corzine; he's toast.
So I don't really know why a Gov's race would be viewed as a "referendum" on anything national . . . but I suppose the upstate NY race could be viewed as a referendum on Gov. Palin!
Anybody know if the results in Maine include the early and absentee ballots?
oct said...
'For example, state how these elections matter in terms of health care. The worst argument I have heard. Obama was elected on a Health Care platform, my man, and he smoked McCain and the beloved Palin. Are we going to change course because of the VA race or the NJ gov. LMAO. That is funny stuff? '
Not sure if there is a correlation, but here's something pertinent to the question:
AP: In a blow to the White House, the Senate's top Democrat signaled Tuesday that Congress may fail to meet a year-end deadline for passing health care legislation, leaving the measure's fate to the uncertainties of the 2010 election season.
Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., spoke as Democratic officials said it could be December before Senate debate begins in earnest on the issue atop President Barack Obama's domestic agenda, months after senior lawmakers and the White House had hoped. The drive to pass legislation has been plagued for months by divisions within the party's rank and file.
54% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens Dem. 39,286 48.8%
Doug Hoffman Con. 36,973 45.9
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 4,319 5.4
63 percent in
NY-23
Owens (D) 49.3%
Hoffman (C) 45.4 %
Scozzafava (R) 5.3 %
Okay, I'm back. I see Pete Kent has jizzed in his pants early on. Anything noteworthy happening?
Aww yeah. What'sd I tell you about upstate NYers?
This means the Republican party is dead!!! (Hey, if PK can do it, so can I)
Gatordad, so your solution to health care is ... don't tell me ... "do nothing."
OR maybe |drumroll| "NO"
That's a great way to fix health care costs that outpace wage growth. LOL. Health care is a job killer -- companies just move up to canada and set up their factories to benefit from cheap affordable healthcare. Dont you get it? (I know this differs from FOX NOISE)
I know a lot of the Republicans need arguments to be very simplistic -- like "Obama is a commie." "Health care reform is socialism." LOL.
But if you read the newspaper about the bill, you would see that measures are being introduced to create more choices -- easier ways to compare plans and a public option to help markets where the private sector fails to serve in a economically viable way. (the government has done socialism like this in Tennessee when they introduced electricity to that market. That was called the TVA. I guess we should shut down the TVA, since it is socialism. LMAO.)
So if you are against those measures, or you think that the current debate means America doesnt need these types of reforms -- well I feel sorry that you are not yet educated on the central issues and the need for reform.
Go Owens -- LMAO -- what a treat
LOL. Glen Beck's troops in NY-23 try to strong arm those votes.
http://www.nydailynews.com/blogs/dailypolitics/2009/11/police-called-to-ny-23-polling.html
Why are two Governor's races a referendum on Obama? I mean I realize you Republicans can use any good news you can get get but, I mean, really?
Deeds was never expected to win. Corzine is disliked and only expected to win by something like 1/2 a point. So this means that the Obama administration is a complete failure? Man, you guys are seriously twisted.
44% reporting
Maine: Reject Gay Marriage Law
No — 130,441 50.1%
Yes — 129,779 49.9
toss-up all night
Jason- Right on the money. The only national figure who went full-hearted into this race was Sarah Palin supporting tea-bagger Hoffman. If he loses by 5-7 points after leading most polls, who else could be the reason for that loss?
These races mean ZERO for Obama, as the exit polling shows it's basically split as to whether he helped or hurt a candidate (and majorities in both NJ and VA said it didn't matter at all). But the mouth-breathers that is today's GOP just want the ability to talk about something, as does the national media because they're that starved for any kind of legitimacy, even if it's a non-even year (translation, non-national coverage) election. Only trned I see between Corzine and Bloomberg's struggles is that people are fed up with Wall Street corptocracy, and I hope THAT'S the message that resonates at 1600 Penn. Ave.
Besides, screaming GOPpers would rather talk about a couple of nickel-dime elections instead of discussing that joke of HCR that Boehner tried pushing out there today. Don't worry, we'll discuss that silliness soon enough. Like tomorrow. :P
71% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens Dem. 50,712 49.1%
Doug Hoffman Con. 46,746 45.2
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 5,898 5.7
Starting to see numbers on Referendum 71 in Washington.
http://z.king5.com/election/results.html?hotraces
APPROVE
50,395 votes
40% of vote
REJECT
74,440 votes
60% of vote
--Greg
Owens and Hoffman are extremely tight, and there are issues...
According to the Watertown Daily Times, there are 10,000 absentee ballots to be counted and 4 precincts in St. Lawrence County experienced mechanical problems and the county won't have total results for tonight.
For those of you monitoring the status of gay rights measures in Maine and Washington, Annise Parker is the leading votegetter in tonight's mayoral election here in Houston, TX. She did not win a majority, there will be a runoff (likely vs. Gene Locke) on Dec. 12. If Parker wins, I think she will become the first lesbian mayor of a major US city (and in deep red Texas!)
Not sure where you got that I'm against HC. Maybe you might want to reread my post. All I did was post an AP wire story about the subject. And your kind of an asshole to presume you know anything about me.
Baldacci was just on Maddow and he's been working it today. It's close but keep the faith.
Ah, I'm startin' to not feel so embarrassed to have grown up in Syracuse! First, we drove out a benchwarmer republican and elected an ambitious, wonky local boy, and now our neighbors to the north are turning their back on 150+ years of tradition just to reject outside nutjobs trying to mess with their proudly independent, levelheaded district.
Also, feelin pretty good about having contributed my vote to Thompson in NYC tonight. $200 for a vote, Bloomie? For $200 a pop, you can usually get people to do a lot more than just *vote* for ya! ;-)
WA-71 UPDATE
APPROVE
376,398 votes
52% of vote
REJECT
341,999 votes
48% of vote
Re 23rd District: 10,000 absentee ballots + 4 precincts probably won't be able to offset a 4,000-vote margin.
I'm really starting to worry about Maine now, what areas still haven't reported?
The worst part about Maine was that it got our hopes up and THEN dashed them. Of course there's another 1/3 of the votes to count, but usually neither the late votes nor the absentee votes work to our favor.
--Greg :-(
Well, look at Maine this way: whichever way it ends up it's going to be close . . . in a moderately conservative state. Just one generation ago, few (if any) could have imagined this as even being an issue. At worst, think of the whole movement as losing a battle but winning the war.
85 percent in, and Owens leads Hoffman 58,787 to 54,518. If Scozzafava is a liberal, the non-conservatives are currently at 54.5percent.
@Jason I know, although I'll be happier to think that once we *have* won the war.
FWIW I'm 51 and became an activist around the time of Anita Bryant. I still remember when liberal towns like Eugene, OR voted to repeal very mild non-discrimination laws by margins of 2-1 or even 3-1. So, yeah, the progress so far is amazing.
My partner and I mark 13 years together next week. We're just outside Seattle, so we care a LOT about Referendum 71. Happy it's leading right now, but we won't really know for days.
--Greg
Hey, it looks like Nate's predictions (so far) were spot on. More importantly, it looks like the dude who likes Mules to Ride him was wrong, and does not get his wish.
Non-conservatives at 54.5% - excellent point!
BTW, we can use MARKET indicators to demonstrate what a stunning blow today's "referendum" was to the Obama administration: let's see - according to INTRADE, the Dems' chances of winning the 2012 election plunged from 64% to . . . 64%. Eureka!
Fox News has projected Bill Owens to win the 23rd Congressional District in New York.
And Mark Williams is spinning wildly on Hardball right now.
www.foxnews.com if you don't believe it.
Well, Greg, good luck on Referendum 71! I've been married more than 20 years, and I think it's ridiculous that some people do not have that option. Funny about Anita Bryant . . . I remember when I was a teen, my parents & lots of people I knew stopped drikning OJ for a while, as a protest.
You know what I think about all this spinning & "referendum" stuff? The Republicans have had a ROUGH year . . . so let them have their celebration, let them have their moment in the sun, let them have their illusory moment of happiness. Come next year, the Dems will still control the White House, the Senate, and the House (presumably with a net GAIN of 1). I'd much rather have the status quo than an alternate universe with President Palin running the country into the ground and having a sweeping Election Day referendum against her!
Spin is always such fun. :-) One can argue it was a disaster for the Republicans, as follows:
In VA, the party in the White House traditionally loses, so no surprise there.
In NJ, people voted against an incompetent governor. The surprise was that it was so close.
In NY, the Republicans lost a seat they'd held since the Civil War!
In Maine, the people repealed a gay-marriage measure by the narrowest margin we've seen yet.
And in Washington (fingers crossed) the people actually APPROVED a pro-gay measure, possibly for the first time ever in the whole USA. (I can't think of a counter example; all of our victories have been defeating anti-gay initiatives or winning in courts or legislatures.)
Of course, there's some sophistry here. ;-)
--Greg
Why is Question 1 in Maine not being called?
Is there some factor that I'm missing that is leaving this outcome questionable such as absentee ballots or early votes?
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