Just listened to a 3 p.m. post-election conference call hosted by Nathan Daschle, executive director of the Democratic Governors Association. (538 regulars will recall an interview Daschle conducted with the site late this summer.)
Here is a quick summary of his comments today, as best and as quickly as I could type them:
“As you can imagine, there are about a 1,000 things I’d rather be doing today than discussing last night’s results," he opened. "One thing you learn in politics is that you have good nights and bad nights."
He said that the DGA is trying to “learn what you can from results, but not dwell on them,” adding that they are “disappointed, but not discouraged.” He twice pointed out that New Jersey and Virginia are historically counter-trending states—that the two states have elected governors from the opposite party controlling the White House for the past 24 years, arguing that it “would have been an upset for us to win.” He said they were turning the focus immediately to the 37 governors races on the ballot 2010.
In what sounded like a prepared statement, Daschle went on to say it was “important to draw lessons but not over-analyze” the results, which he said did not support: (1) the conclusion that there’s a Republican resurgence, again noting the counter-trending of the two governors’ seats relative to the party controlling the White House; nor (2) the idea that President Obama “is politically wounded,” saying it was not a political referendum on the White House; nor (3) that “Democrats are in trouble for 2010,” citing polls in New Jersey showing that Jon Corzine won on the “economy” yesterday but lost because “other issues superseded the economy.”
There are three fair conclusions to draw, however, he said:
“If there’s a silver lining, it’s that we conserved our resources. We spent half what the RGA spent,” said Daschle. “It was the right call because neither race would have been helped by more spending.” He said the DGA spent $4 million in VA to the RGA’s $5M, and about $3.5 million in New Jersey to the RGA’s $7 million.
I asked Daschle whether he thought Bob McDonnell’s strong performance in the Northern Virginia counties was a byproduct of his local ties there or some larger change in partisan support in these counties which helped Democrats Jim Webb, Mark Warner, Tim Kaine and Barack Obama all carry the state. “I think it was always something of a misnomer that Virginia had become a Democratic state,” he said. As for NoVa voters, he specifically added that “those voters respond to optimistic messages and positive messages and care about how public officials are going to their lives better. The fact that [McDonnell] came from Northern Virginia and reminded people of that in all his signs didn’t hurt. Voters in that part of the state respond to positive, optimistic economic messages.”
Turning to the House, Democrats were more upbeat after winning the two special elections. Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Chris Van Hollen (MD-8) said this about the New York 23rd district race that received nationwide attention:"Congratulations to Congressman-elect Bill Owens on his remarkable victory. Voters in New York's 23rd District responded to Bill Owens' message and track record of creating jobs and attracting economic development to Upstate New York.
Finally, the RSLC's Carrie Cantrell, who spoke with 538 Friday, was enjoying a partisan victory lap today. The RSLC issued a press release which reads in part:
"This election represents a double-blow for National Republicans and their hopes of translating this summer's ‘tea party' energy into victories at the ballot box. Not only did eight extreme right-wing groups spend more than $1 million to drive the moderate Republican - and the NRCC's chosen candidate - out of the race. Now, after losing a seat that was held by Republicans for nearly 120 years, they have to deal with an emboldened and well-funded far right-wing that refuses to tolerate moderate Republicans with differing opinions."Voters across the country last night from New Hampshire to Washington state sent a loud and clear message--Americans want a limited, less overreaching government. Not only did Republicans win all three statewide offices in Virginia for only the second time in history, but gains were made by Republicans in state legislatures in Virginia (+6), New Hampshire (+1), New Jersey (+1), Michigan (+1) and Washington state (+1). The Republican State Leadership Committee, the nation’s largest caucus of Republican state leaders, contributed more than $2.2 million to state races across the country this year and focused on a new media strategy to heighten awareness of these races.
So that's a roundup of how the parties are spinning yesterday's results.
“There will be a lot of talk about what last night’s election means. One thing is crystal clear--the American people have had enough. These overwhelming victories in ‘blue states’ are the result of strong Republican candidates providing commonsense solutions to the real problems facing all Americans,” said Republican State Leadership Committee (RSLC) President Scott Ward. “Our candidates listened to the voices of the people, and offered a clear vision of fiscal responsibility and economic growth that attracted not only Republicans, but Independents and Democrats as well, to our winning cause. They understand taxpayers are the owners of the government – and that the government ought to let individuals determine their destiny rather than government gimmicks that reduce their freedoms.”
11.04.2009
DGA Chief Says Dems "Carry Burden of Proof"
by Tom Schaller @ 4:17 PM
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27 comments
Does that mean discussion of the marriage referenda was secondary? What was said about them, if anything?
Talk about spin? You are the master of it.
BTW, it's not a talking point about the party of no way. It's a fact Jack. The Dems need to grow some balls and quit worrying about any perceived backlash.
The republicans can gloat all they want considering the ass kicking they got the last 2 real cycles.
What you should worry about is the toxicity of nutbags like Palin and Beck.
The economy was the subtext to this election. But I would take cold comfort from that if I were a right winger.
The economy damn near went over the proverbial cliff. The stimulus package should have been passed a year earlier, or at least six months earlier. But such a move would be anathema to supply siders, so it didn't happen.
Fortunately, the best person for the job won the Presidency, and pulled in enough new Congressional Dems with him to push through the stimulus. And slowly but surely, the country is pulling away from the edge of the cliff.
By this time next year, the economy will be humming, and this election will look like what it really is - an abberation due to the predictable panic of people staring into the abyss the Republicans damn near consigned them to.
But enjoy these small victories while you can. They won't last.
What's very interesting is the paucity of State legislature seats that the Republicans have picked up. After all their bragging about a "sea change", it's rather disappointing to see only one seat change hands in most states, and only six in Virginia.
I'm not saying the loss of the Virginia and New Jersey governorships isn't a blow for the Democrats - it is - but apart from Virginia there doesn't really seem to have been much movement towards the Republicans.
Washington state didn't have a general legislative election this cycle. There were only three seats up of 49 total (presumably because of vacancies), all in the very red southeastern part of the state. So, the point about gaining seats in "blue" states doesn't really make much sense in Washington.
FSC -- could the state lege results outside of VA and NJ be special elections? I'm pretty sure NH at least holds elections in even years, and anyway a one-seat gain in the NH lege is basically a rounding error.
@Bill
Perhaps by the WA comment, he meant the passage of Ref71, which certainly entails a limited, less overreaching government. :)
@Matt Weiner
They were I believe. The MI seat was Mark Schauer's old seat, so we lost a state senator but gained a congressman there.
And if Dems are down to 224/400 rather than 225/400 in the NH House that's not exactly a titanic shift.
Really, other than an incredibly weak and uninspiring field in Virginia, Dems did all right in the various small races across the country.
I don't know why Democrats should be acting like the predictable, cyclical loss of two awful candidates signifies a major change in the electorate.
And after nearly 30 years of F**ing up royally, I'm so sick of hearing Republicans suggest that voters are rebelling against 9 months of Democratic leadership,
And I'm sick of hearing that the same tired "hate the government" gimmicks will magically work this time around.
@SactoJoe: I actually consider it very unlikely that the economy will be humming this time next year. The stock market is doing OK because world trade has picked up again but manufacturing in the USA remains prostrate and getting worse and without consumer spending, what will change that. Another round of stimulus would help but we're unlikely to get that.
I worry a great deal about the fact that all too many voters won't remember where things were at on 11/04/08, if they're still unemployed on 11/02/10. They'll drink right-wing Kool Aid and vote in more "Party of No" bully-boys, who in turn will hamstring Obama and make the economy even worse in 2012.
Those who feel government exists for something other than cosseting the wealthy caught a huge break when the Great Depression hit in 1929 and gave the Repubs almost three full years to demonstrate their inability to end it. Bush only got one year of pain, and now Obama is stuck with it. And now, a year after the abyss loomed, Republican spokespersons talk about how people have had enough and aren't laughed off the stage.
I hope I'm wrong, but very few people have gone broke betting that the American people have short memories.
Most states did not have state legislative elections. According to the NCSL, there were only 13 special elections outside of the few states which had normal elections.
http://ncsl.typepad.com/the_thicket/2009/11/republicans-see-signs-of-a-comeback-in-limited-2009-elections.html
Oh, does anyone know which state is having a governor election next year which did not have one in 2002? There were only 36 states with guv elections that year. (Is it Utah?)
By this time next year, the economy will be humming
What is the detailed economic definition of 'humming'? How many new jobs will be created by August 2010? Where will unemployment be? How many 'Help Wanted' signs will grace store windows and internet job sites?
'Humming' sounds good and all. But what exactly does it mean? Thats what the independents want to know. And incumbents across the nation have about 9 more months to fully explain it...or the opposition will explain it in THEIR terms.
@scrabblerdog
It is indeed Utah. They have a special because of Huntsman's resignation.
New Hampshire (+1),
Hahahahaha. They picked up 1 seat in a house of 398 members, bringing their total membership to 175.
They would do better to just not talk about it
EmonOkari said...
By this time next year, the economy will be humming
What is the detailed economic definition of 'humming'?
"Humming" means whatever people are willing to believe it means. Most of us can agree that the economy will be better in a year. Most of us can also agree that the economy won't be great in a year.
The question is really whether it will look like a pattern of substantial improvement (unemployment peaked and on a strong downward trend, stable rise in stocks and housing values, measurable consumer confidence), in which case the Democrats will do all right...
Or like underwhelming marginal/temporary improvements that can be spun as not worth the costs, in which case the GOP does very well and can proceed to f**k everything up all over again.
MUST SEE!!! (especially for conservatives)
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2009/11/4/800678/-Engineering-defeat
Thank you, Sarah Palin, Glenn Beck, FOX, Limbaugh!
Not to mention Scott Raspublican.
Any doubts about which race the GOP and it's conservative nutbase thought was the biggie is completely removed by those 6 glorious minutes.
PG
yeah, FAUX & the teabaggers must be off to Africa to float down a certain river that flows to the north...
da nile, bb
One thing that I would say about last night's results is that, based on the anti-incumbency mood, if my last name was Specter or Dodd...I'd be shitting a brick right about now.
Thank you for posting that link, PorridgeGun!
Some wonderful highlights -
Minnesota Gov Tim Pawlenty endorsed Hoffman. I particularly like this one, as he is the opportunistic schmuck from my state, hoping to make a presidential run - here he is, looking like a fool before a national audience.
Hoffman is praised as a "Reagan Republican". The cult of Saint Ronnie still lives. Maybe this will kill it. (Naw, it's a zombie, it'll keep lurching along for years - the Republicans have no one else.)
All the big names endorsed Hoffman - Armey, Palin, Beck (well, all of Faux) deMint... fools.
ACORN, ACORN, ACORN - Republicans' new name for Satan. Really? Gosh, they can pick their Evil Villains, can't they?
Scozzafava is described as "pro-abortion, pro-stimulis, pro-card check" - since Hoffman opposed these things, and Hoffman lost, can we take this to mean American wants these things?
Hoffman will be a "political earthquake and a referndum on Obama". Okay, we've had a referendum on Obama. I guess we can take this to mean that American still overwhelmingly supports Obama, even in a conservative district. Right? So if we are to take anything Tuesday as a test of Obama's strength, that question has been answered. Right?
Hoffman's candidacy is a "bellweather for next year", a "preview of what we're likely to see in 2010 and 2012". So, the conservatives will now begin saying they're about to lose big in 2010 and 2012, right?
Scozzafava withdraws, and this is a victory for the tea party movement. Gosh, they aim small - and aim, apparently, to weaken and maybe dismantle the Republican Party.
The GOP, we're told, will unite and keep the seat, and it is very unlikely Owen will be able to maintain a lead. Gosh, those conservative talking heads really know their stuff, don't they?
Gingrich praised Scozzafava for having the statesmanship to realize she couldn't win, and she didn't want to be the cause of the liberal Democrat taking the seat away from conservatives. How did that turn out?
Even when she endorsed Owens, "that race isn't even close."
Hoffman is going to win comfortably, the die has been cast.
On Election Eve, conservatives are preparing to take back the Republican party. Hoffman will "ride a tidal wave of support".
Not so much.
Once Hoffman lost, the "civil war' in the district was greatly exaggerated.
It was, after all, a rather obscure congressional district.
This was fun!
I worry a great deal about the fact that all too many voters won't remember where things were at on 11/04/08, if they're still unemployed on 11/02/10. They'll drink right-wing Kool Aid and vote in more "Party of No" bully-boys, who in turn will hamstring Obama and make the economy even worse in 2012.
I imagine that if the economy stays the same/gets worse/recovers slowly, the populism will start popping up on both sides. Which I think is something that lots of right-wingers don't really understand: there may be some poor people who will be blaming immigrants, but there will be a lot more poor people blaming "the rich", equally unjustly.
"Voters across the country last night from New Hampshire to Washington state sent a loud and clear message--Americans want a limited, less overreaching government."
From my perch in Washington State, that's industrial-strength spin by the Republicans. Yes, they picked up one legislative seat -- in one of the most conservative parts of the state, so that now their minority in the state House is a mere 62-36.
And the entire state rejected a TABOR-style, anti-tax, anti-government initiative by 56%-44%.
I am surprised that Maine voted against Gay Marriage.
After all, Maine has been touching Canada's bottom for so many years...
[courtesy of The Late Late Show with Craig Ferguson]
maybe it was a Larry Craig thing...tap, tap
Voters across the country last night from New Hampshire to Washington state sent a loud and clear message--Americans want a limited, less overreaching government. Not only did Republicans win all three statewide offices in Virginia for only the second time in history, but gains were made by Republicans in state legislatures in Virginia (+6), New Hampshire (+1), New Jersey (+1), Michigan (+1) and Washington state (+1).
+1, now that's what I call a landslide ;-)
Continuing on what Tim said, I'm from Washington and this election cycle saw dramatic wins for liberals. All rights but marriage (R71) was the first gay rights measure passed at a state wide election. A conservative tax measure failed state-wide even in counties with a past history of being "anti-tax". In Seattle the liberals sweeped the moderates (we passed a measure a couple years ago barring most conservatives from general elections) in city council, attorney, and mayor races. The (+1) in the Washington legislature was due to a special election where a dem held a seat in one of the most conservative districts in the state and passed away. If Washington state is a victory worth tooting your horn about for the GOP there are some serious holes in their ship.
New Jersy hasn't elected a Repub. to statewide office since 1997 so to term it as something that usually happens in off year elections is bogus. You are correct in your assertion that Independents are wary of health care, deficits, the economy and that's clearly why they overwhelmingly supported Repub. candidates in Va. and the new Gov. in New Jersey.
Hmmm... except exit polls don't really bear that out, Chris. Issues like local property tax rates and jobs jobs jobs come up. Health care doesn't really factor in that much.
And VA and NJ do traditionally elect Governors of the party opposite the White House.
Now we haven't had a Democrat in the WH during a gubernatorial election since 1997, so perhaps that's where you're confused as to why this is common in off year elections.
And of course it's worth pointing out that NJ at least has only 3 statewide offices: Governor and 2 Senators. VA has 5 and Democrats haven't swept them since the sixties at the latest.
Both Senators are indeed Democrats and have been for some time. But it's not uncommon for states that send one party to Washington to send a Governor of the other party to the statehouse. Actually it's very common.
And a four-point win against a despised incumbent/ That's hardly "overwhelming."
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