A comparison in seven counties where all votes have been counted.
County_______ Deeds Obama
King & Queen_ 41.0 51.8
Prince Edward 44.9 54.3
Westmoreland_ 41.4 54.6
Wythe________ 27.3 32.9
Lexington____ 60.5 62.2
Williamsburg_ 54.6 63.8
Winchester___ 39.2 52.0
AVERAGE______ 44.1 53.1These counties are actually fairly representative -- Obama won 52.6 percent of the vote in Virginia overall -- so it looks like Deeds is going down to defeat on the order of 56-44. This is why some of the networks are starting to call the race.
36 comments
Deeds v. Obama?
You mean McDonnell?
That would be in the range that polling predicted, low double digit margin.
No DH, he's comparing Obama's take last year to Deeds this year.
No, I believe Nate is suggesting that Deeds is averaging -7 Obama's vote and will probably continue to do so, thus he's going to lose the race.
And if so, you're 1/1 on the night so far, Nate! :P (Although it's too bad 538 isn't "calling" the vote split like in the Presidential election.)
I agree, this analysis does make sense. Running a lack-luster blue-dog lite candidate was a losing proposition.
The reality of VA is a recent hypothetical poll had Tim Kaine losing to McDonnell by 8 pts. and recent history says VA votes against the incumbent president's party for governor as they are strong believers in checks and balances.
Again, makin' turdblossom's absurd pipe dream of a permanent party of No! majority all the more laughable as one looks at voting patterns of Virginia.
carry on
ie Mark Warner won 52/47 in 2001 (2) mos. after 9/11 ... you all remember when dubya had a 90% approval rating nationwide!
'nuf said! about the independent/rational voters of VA who also bounced 'Macaca' Allen in 2006. :)))
In VA all statewide GOP candidates are winning 2 to 1. The Democratic Party in VA may cease to exist as a governoring force after tonight.
Now they are spinning the Corzine loss in NJ as a result of the bad shape the state is in and we should not extrapolate negative news for Obama and the Dems from the defeat.
Really?
The whole country is in the toilet under Obama and the turds are only spinning further down the sewer.
It is certain now that the GOP will sweep the Midterms in 2010 and could take back the House.
Meanwhile Obama (who has not grown much on the job) is not capable of improving the economy to the point where it will do him that much good in 2012. Remember: Even the Maoists had to abandon Maoism in order to improve the Chinese economy!
petekent01 (on twitter)
So much for McDonnell's far-right wing thesis being too much for Viginians to accept. Take that WaPo!
Take a look at the VA results -- Now that is a landslide!
BTW if Christie wins by 7% (I figure the floor on his margin is 5%, so 7% is an easy call), will you all agree that HE (Christie) won by a Landslide?
In the age of Obama we are told that Landslides start at 7% (oh, and unemployment is good for us!).
petekent01 (on twitter)
Heavens! Such optimism! No, there's no real trend here. Just let Gov. McDonnell govern, and we'll have another two terms of Dems to try to clean it up. Especially if he drops his mask and becomes the religious winger he really is at heart.
MK:
Drops his mask???
When will Obama do that and show himself for the radical he is.
How scary to have that man in the White House.
petekent01 (on twitter)
petetwit01 (on kenter) said...
"It is certain now that the GOP will sweep the Midterms in 2010 and could take back the House."
Just as certain as Obama's victory last year assured a win for Creigh Deeds.
What a world pete must live in, where VA governors determine the make up of the House, and secret Chinese communists lurk behind moderate incrementalist proposals!
Nitpick: Williamsburg, Lexington, and Winchester are all independent cities, not counties -- they're independent political entities of the counties that surround them, and they're (at least geographically) much smaller than Virginia's counties are.
Not that it'll matter, but, as a native, thought I'd mention...
This is what happens when Republicans run conservatives. Maybe they will finally learn after tonight.
Has anyone seen cross-tabs on the exit polls yet.
Don't know if they are asking voters whom they voted for last year.
The real question is whether there are a large number of Obama voters in New Jersey and Virginia voting for Christie and McDonnell or are we just seeing the typical low turnout for a mid-year election.
Blogger PeteTwit said...
"Drops his mask??? When will Obama do that and show himself for the radical he is."
Well since we all know that Obama is a secret Radical/Muslim/Atheist/Communist/Maoist/Fascist/Socialist/Authoritarian/Spineless/Terrorist/Pacifist/Traitor/etc, logic dictates that he will drop his moderate facade and start carrying out his radical agenda...
Let's see, what do we have after 9 months: moderate HCR proposal, moderate foreign policy, moderate/patheitic civil rights position, moderate environmental proposal...
But that radical has got to come out sometime right? Keep watching; we have to be vigilant.
Waiting...waiting..waiting...
Ooh, the tension is just killing me!
Pete, Mao's economic policies were things like setting goals for communities to produce iron and because that was impossible and no one wanted to tell him that all of China was melting their farm tools and door hinges and whatever they could find to try and make quota.
Are you being a moron, or do you think Mao was some sort of lukewarm Keynesian?
One of my favorite shiloh quotes from just a few days ago:
Bart, one sounds upset ;) Scozzafava endorsed Owens. Bwahaha!!!
Oh the humanity!
You know, I fundamentally disagree with the socialist Nate, but he tries very hard to be honest and not spin things. It boggles the mind how the people who comment on this site try so hard to be partisanly (sp?) stupid. Left and right. You'd think a site like this would draw a marginally intelligent crowd. Not so.
Fifty-five percent of Virgina voters polled say that Obama was not a factor in how they voted, with 24 percent suggesting that their vote was meant to express opposition to the president, and 18 percent indicating that their vote was meant to express support for Obama.
When asked if Obama had an effect on their [New Jersey] vote, 60 percent responded he was not a factor, 20 percent said their vote was meant to express opposition to him, and 19 percent said it was to support him.
Anyone care to guess what was cited as the biggest factor in both? It's the economy, stupid.
Correction. I realize that many of you are intelligent. You just refuse to demonstrate it for some reason I can't understand
Quite frankly Kaine's turn as Gov is completely devoid of any achievement. The number one issue in the fast growing Dem-leaning/turning parts of VA (NoVa and Hampton Roads) is transportation and Kaine couldn't get a solution through. Of course that was due to the fact that fixing transportation needs new revenues and a) the Rs in the house of delegates didn't approve of new statewide taxes to raise revenues b) nobody approved of moving it from education or other parts of the state budget and c) localized transportation tax districts that passed the state leg were declared unconsitutional by the state supreme court.
The recession also stopped Kaines early childhood education initiatives. Tim Kaine can say at best that he screwed nothing up but the short story is that VA has had a Dem governor for 8yrs and the NoVa commute still is horendous. McDonnell hit Deeds pretty hard for waffling to leave room open for a tax increase devoted for transportation (if the legislature approved) and maybe people bought McD's budget jujitso with privatizing the state run liquor stores (not a long term solution- maybe not even enough to be a short term solution).
Looking at the district polls, there doesn't appear to be enough votes available for Corzine to pull it out.
This is a fairly massive repudiation of Corzine and to a significant extent, Obama. Normally pro-life candidates like Christie lose by 12-15%.
"In VA all statewide GOP candidates are winning 2 to 1. The Democratic Party in VA may cease to exist as a governoring force after tonight."
Wow. Irrational exuberance much? It's cute that you think that though, PeteK.
Wow, I figured McDonnell would win by 10-12 points, but a 20 point win is an enormous landslide.
With this win and the prospects of McDonnell as a potential VP candidate in 2012, I do not see Obama winning this state in 2012.
New Jersey should be close, but Christie is up pretty good right now!
Turn out the lights in NJ .. if a Republican wins in Gloucester county, it's over. Whitman couldn't even win this county in her win in 1997 so I expect a 2-4 point Christie win, maybe more if Bergen stays red and Burlington comes in big for Christie.
Nate failed to note that the young voted in far few numbers than in 2008 (1/2 as many) and older people made up a much larger percentage. So, the skew is not surprising at all. Also, Dems in general were a smaller percentage of voters than in 2008: apathy favors the GOP.
One question for Republicans on this thread:
I can see why Republicans here are rooting for Christie as part of a national strategy, but I gotta wonder if there is actually any excitement about the prospect of his taking office.
I mean I can see how a competent politician like McDonnell or a (psychotic) base-pleaser like Hoffman would generate genuine excitement about their (upcoming) terms in office...
But do they think a waffling blubbering corrupt windbag who refuses to say what he will do as Governor will actually improve the state? Will sending people to jail actually improve NJ's economy?
So are Republicans here crowing about numbers coming out of NJ actually excited about the prospect of Christie in office, or is it more like Democrats feel about Corzine? As in he's a worthless schmuck but at least he's not the other guy?
N.Y. District 23
8% reporting
Votes Pct.
Bill Owens Dem. 5,194 53.4%
Doug Hoffman Con. 4,127 42.4
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 407 4.2
wow- Owens is up !!!!
On 8% of the count.. great!!!!!
MSNBC has Bloomberg up only 1 point with a third of precincts reporting. Seems like a close race that NYT and others have called for Mike.
34% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens Dem. 24,782 51.0%
Doug Hoffman Con. 21,404 44.0
Dede Scozzafava Rep. 2,443 5.0
still +7
now THIS is the real story of the night
It's only the "real" story because it's the most sensational story. Just like all these other contests, everyone will read their tea leaves differently. Everybody wins, everybody loses.
54% reporting
N.Y. District 23
Bill Owens Dem. +3
GROG said...
One of my favorite shiloh quotes from just a few days ago:
Bart, one sounds upset ;) Scozzafava, endorsed Owens. Bwahaha!!!
Oh the humanity!
~~~~~~~~~~
Grog, to answer your recent question, I predict Owens will win NY-23! and yes, after Owens did defeat Hoffman, pretty damn sure BDP is totally pissed off Scozzafava endorsed Owens lol
Oh the humanity!
btw Grog, did you predict Hoffman would win decisively like the rest of 538 winger trolls.
just wonderin'
take care, blessings
p.s. looks like the voters of NY-23 want palin er whomever she is paying to do her tweeting to stop all her damn twittering and mind her own frickin' business, eh
palin/pawlenty 2012
Post a Comment