AAPOR, the American Association for Public Opinion Research, yesterday reprimanded Atlanta-based PR firm Strategic Vision, LLC for failing to disclose even basic information about their political polls:
For more than one year, AAPOR was unable to obtain the following basic information about Strategic Vision LLC’s polling in New Hampshire and Wisconsin: who sponsored the survey; who conducted it; a description of the underlying sampling frame; an accounting of how “likely voters” were identified and selected; response rates; and a description of any weighting or estimating procedures used.This is a highly unusual step for AAPOR, which tends to be a conservative (lower-case 'c') organization that would not ordinarily be inclined to call out an individual pollster by name. But Strategic Vision brought the criticism entirely upon themselves, being the only one of 21 polling firms contacted by the organization that did not respond to the request, in spite of having literally months' worth of time to do so. As Mark Blumenthal notes, moreover, this is hardly an isolated incident: Strategic Vision has a long history of failing to disclose anything at all about their methodology, obfuscating around repeated requests from places like the Atlanta Journal-Constitution. Nor is Strategic Vision any better about disclosing such information to the general public. By contrast, they never provide any demographic detail, cross-tabulations, methodological disclosure, or other supporting evidence in conjunction with their polls.
So let me ask a few more questions of David E. Johnson, Strategic Vision's CEO. I don't purport to have answers to these questions, but I think they deserve to be asked.
1. Are you actually polling anyone at all? Or are you just throwing some numbers up on a webpage and hoping nobody calls you on it?
2. What is the location of your "offices" in Tallahassee, Madison and Dallas? Why is there no street address or phone number listed in association with them? How come none of the locations show up in a Yahoo! or Google search?
3. Why would you pick the name "Strategic Vision, LLC" for your company when the name "Strategic Vision, Inc." was already in use by an extremely well regarded, San Diego-based research firm that has been in business for more than 30 years? Are you deliberately trying to confuse your potential clients and leverage Strategic Vision, Inc.'s much stronger brand name?
I await a reply from Mr. Johnson. But quite honestly, I'm not really expecting one.
106 comments
But quite honestly, I'm not really expecting one.
Being the nobody that you are, you don't really deserve one.
You only think you do because of your inflated ego and your relentless self-aggrandizement through this blog.
I'm not holding my breath. But these guys do need some public pressure put on them.
AAPOR does largerly set the professional standards, but bringing public attention is about all that they can do to encourage disclosure about methods or compliance with standards.
Mule Rider, aka David E. Johnson?
I haven't been here (that is, the comments) much since the election, but why is Mule Rider here? I mean, I think Rick Sutcliffe is a lousy announcer, but I don't go to his house to yell at him.
As of Aug. 5, 2009, the Google-cached address of Strategic Vision LLC. in Madison was 1360 Regent Street, Suite 152. I've lived two blocks from this address for the past three years and can tell you that it has never been "Strategic Vision, LLC." It has been a UPS Store since 2004.
Their website has a live support chat button on every page, nice and big at the top.
Why don't you ask them these questions directly?
Mule Rider
Why comment on a site you hate so much? Why even visit it?
That is, unless you are personally being attacked.
I just spoke with the folks at the UPS Store located at 1360 Regent Street, Madison, WI. An address with a suite at that address implies a mailbox maintained at the UPS Store.
Dear troll,
why are you a troll?
inquiring minds want to know.
sincerely,
concerned poster
GET 'EM, NATE!
I think you're first question pretty much says it all. Which begs the answer, aside from being disingenuous, is it even legal to make crap up like that?
Not sure which is worse, push polling or fake polling.
...well, that answers the question on the last thread about what happened to Mule (or as Pragmatus prefers to call him, Fifi).
@Tim: Maybe that's where they receive packages? I mean, if it's a UPS store, that does sound plausible...and ScottG has already suggested as much (that they have a mailbox there).
The question is, though, do they have any sort of actual physical address? i.e., an office?
Nice find! A PO box at a UPS store as their mailing address, NICE!
I used to run a business out of a Mailbox storefront. Tennessee allowed you to call your mailbox a 'suite'. I think some states won't let you do that. I wasn't trying to be deceptive. Most of the music industry in Nashville is located on two streets and the real estate values, as you might expect, were out of my price range. Having a street address that read ### Music Square West, Ste. ### had a certain cachet and was indicative of where I spent my time and resources.
Madison and Tallahassee seem like odd places for a pollster though.
The worst part of fake polls is when they are quoted by "news" outlets as fact.
Hehe, go Nate!
By the way, I think you should update your pollster ratings, based on the 2008 elections - or you could give some kind of evaluation on which pollsters can be trusted and which can not.
And this post was written just on cue - I decided to check out Pollster, and they just put up a poll from them.
So, I'm following the site, and one thing became fairly apparent: SV, LLC represents itself as mainly a PR firm, not a pollster. From their SV Political home page...
At Strategic Vision Political, we craft winning results for our clients. Our team has over fifty years of experience in working on political races ranging from municipal to federal. We have worked with a wide range of issue advocacy groups across the country. Our client's success is the measure of our own.
Compare that to Rasmussen Reports, which presents itself as a straight pollster (although there is punditry on the site):
Rasmussen Reports is an electronic media company specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.
As a media company, we make our money by selling advertising, title sponsorships, subscriptions, and content. One thing we don’t sell is polls. Because we value our independence and credibility, Rasmussen Reports cannot be hired to conduct a poll for anyone. For our reports, we decide the questions to ask based upon the needs and interests of our audience. If it’s in the news, it’s in our polls.
(There's a reason why I used Raspublican, as some might refer to it. And it's not because I'm a Republican - in fact, it's because I'm a liberal Democrat.)
Also, their current mailing address (on their website) is:
2451 Cumberland Pkwy
Suite 3607
Atlanta, GA 30339
Anyone know if that's a mailbox or an actual office?
...I meant the mailing address that I posted was SV's. If it's not kosher that it's posted, I'll remove it - I also want to emphasize that while it IS publicly available on their contact page, do NOT harass SV, LLC.
psy said: "Their website has a live support chat button on every page, nice and big at the top."
HA-HA-HA! Those "live chat" things are nothing but a scam 9 times out of 10. They are often used by scam websites in order to look more legitimate. Don't be so gullible.
Inferno According to the UPS website the address is
THE UPS STORE
2451 CUMBERLAND PKWY
ATLANTA, GA 30339
Hours of Operation
Mon-Fri: 8:00am-6:30pm;
Sat: 9:00am-3:00pm;
Sun: Closed
so no office here. Some home based businesses do label their UPS box as Suite for image. There was a big legal dispute about doing this a few years ago.
@norman
See above post
As a first approximation, everything on the internet is a scam.
And in the ".biz" top-level-domain, even more so.
Wait, whoa, they're seriously at a .biz? Game over man, game over.
Who actually utilizes and reports on the results of their polls?
I just find it sketchy that there is no physical office given. Like, the mailboxes are indirectly referred to as "offices." (On the site, the Atlanta mailbox is referred to as a "mailing address," but the additional ones in Tallahassee and Madison are referred to as "additional offices.")
That's sending off warning bells.
The livechat isn't a scam. I'm actually using it right now, and there's a person from SV responding.
The Strategic Vision LLC opening page reads:
Winning Campaigns. Winning Coalitions. Winning Concepts.
"At Strategic Vision Political, we craft winning results for our clients."
Whoa. 'Nuff said
Well, they're not just pollsters, but also consultants, strategy advisors etc., so that makes sense. I don't think that this means what you think it does.
Anyway, that person from SV I just chatted with told me basically that they're aware of this post, and that they in fact disclosed information to AAPOR, and have proof of it- but that they are at the same time no members of that organisation and don't have to adhere to their standards.
Rasmus said...
and don't have to adhere to their standards.
~~~~~~~~~~
So they have no standards ;) sounds like a Rep organization to me lol
carry on
A whois query leads to what looks like a business address in Atlanta:
http://www.whois.net/whois/strategicvision.biz
Also,
2892 Park Avenue Suite 5. Tallahassee, FL 32301
Because I find things like this. My guess is another mailbox/UPS-type place because at least 10 other companies have this as an address (minus the suite number).
This appears to be a shady enterprise all around.
I could swear I saw a link somewhere for this: http://www.pollster.com/blogs/aapor_raises_objections_to_str.php
But I think that article sums up quite a good deal of the complaint and issues around it. Of course, I see plenty of other reasons not to be entirely happy with Strategic Vision, LLC.
The addresses are all listed on:
http://strategicvision.biz/political/contact_us.html
I think earlier commenters have proved they are all UPS stores.
Ha ha ha...the person with this site uses an address not associtaed with their location.
PMB 368, 14150 NE 20th St - F1
C/O fivethirtyeight.com
Bellevue WA 98007 US
This site is a fake!
Hey Nate:
Read this "opinion" piece from 2005 and it will give a good glimpse at what "crafting" means to the CEO David E. Johnson.
seattlepi.com/opinion/206360_gov04.html
A water carrying mouthpiece for the right, and most likely anyone who comes up with a few grand to hire that type of expertise exhibited in that "opinion."
Silly as it Seems . . .
Dog_Knows
Doesn't anyone wonder why these babies are crying the blues about polling when the facts show that the current set of fundamentally dishonest politicians and the so called main stream media are in bed together giving each other hand jobs! Come on really, you are just so sad and childish the polls mean nothing since they don't give credibility to anything.
@Dog Knows
Thanks for posting the article.
Don't you just love the irony of a conservative crying foul at election process? I don't remember much about the Washington Governor race other than it was close so I don't know if there were any shenanigans or not. Most likely just standard error in races that close.
I also loved how he predicted that it would hurt Democratic chances in 2006. Well we know how that turned out, eh? Guess that's why he sticks to making stuff up rather than prognostication. He should work for Palin.
In response to Rasmus, while they're not members of AAPOR, and therefore are not obligated to meet AAPOR standards, the fact that they will not disclose the necessary information about their polls demonstrates that they do not meet generally acceptable levels of transparency, and should not be regarded as a reputable polling firm. As a member of AAPOR, we get requests from politicians, the AP, other firms, all of the time for crosstabs (which we post on the web), screeners (which we don't), and the like. The AAPOR advisory is basically a warning to not take these people seriously, and the AP (at least some of the offices) do pay attention to these things.
As for them turning over some of the info to AAPOR, the original AAPOR mailer that went out to members did say that they had turned over some of the requested info, but after a few months, still had not turned over the rest. These standards are pretty minimal: the sort of thing you'd normally just put at the bottom of a press release. If someone isn't willing to reveal the necessary info, they're up to something really sketchy.
Kirk just got tapped to replace Kennedy. Republicans have already filed an injunction to stop his swearing in.
Nate Silver,
Posting this man's home address and that of one of his staff members shows what a lowlife you really are. I am an ex-PI, how's about I investigate you and put ALL your info. out there on the WWW and we'll see what kind of other lowlifes show up on your doorstep. Did you ever in your weak little mind, think that with all the nutjobs running around, that you may be putting these people's families at risk? Good grief, if you can't beat them on the issues, run subterfuge, that is how you Liberals operate. I am not a Repub. (hate 'em), not a Dem. (can't stand them either), but the 1st Amendment and statistics are what they are. If you don't like it, don't freaking read it. I am not afraid. If you post my info. that's o.k., I am an ex-cop, have guns, and am married to a Detective with MPD, so I got something for any barking moonbat that shows up at my door, trying to harm my family. Gail Chicks, Milwaukee, WI.
GChicks…
Thanks for stopping by, sweetie.
If transparency is the new level of honorable standards then lets have a transparent government and hey while we are at it lets have all of the lefty pollsters and the sock puppet press declare loud and clear their own bias...
@GChicks
???
I don't see anyone's home address anywhere in the article OR in the comment section. All of the adresses we have been discussing have been debunked as mailboxes at a UPS store rather than an office.
I really don't think you can claim the moral high ground here when Nate has exposed the dishonesty of this guy's polling.
All due respect to your public service, sir, but your fear of moonbats threatening your family puzzles me.
GChicks said...
all the nutjobs running around, that you may be putting these people's families at risk?
~~~~~~~~~~
Not to worry, all the nutjobs w/guns, currently running around are on the right, as is this pollster organization er whatever it is ...
take care
GChicks: Nate Silver,
Posting this man's home address and that of one of his staff members shows what a lowlife you really are.
What on earth are you talking about? Show me the comment or article in which Nate has posted anyone's home address.
How do you know what the addresses are? Have you been to them? The Tallahassee office listed above doesn't look like a UPS store to me - those typically have more suite numbers. I think it is irresponsible to be listing these types of things because there are people out there who are unbalanced.
OK, as Alex posted earlier, all these addresses are listed on Stategic Visions website under contact us. That would constitute an invitation to public access. Visit the link yourself.
http://strategicvision.biz/political/contact_us.html
Once you visit the site; dismount the high horse, will ya? Geez.
I think it is irresponsible to be listing these types of things because there are people out there who are unbalanced.
Can't argue that last part
I just Google Earthed the Tallahasse address. Whatd'ya know. It's a strip mall. I can't read the names of the businesses on the sign but what do you bet one of them is a Mailboxes Plus?
Happy now?
{Actually it is kind of ominous that I can do that all the way from Oregon. Technology sure can be scary}
You left out this part...
The AAPOR specifically said it did not challenge the accuracy of Strategic Vision’s polling.
Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson said his firm had wanted to appeal the judgment, and said a Sept. 17 hearing had been scheduled – and then canceled by the AAPOR. “We’ve asked for a copy of the complaint that was filed against us, and who filed it,” Johnson said. “How can you respond to something when you don’t know who filed the complaint.”
Moreover, he added, “We’re not a member of their organization. I don’t know anything about them.”
Ah, Here are the businesses currently listed at that address:
Ad-Max
Affordable American Housing
Broger Real Estate Services Inc
Dining & Vistor's Guide
Joyce Publishing Inc
Lawnery of Tallahassee Inc The
Primerica Financial Service
Suite 5 is listed as the Lawnery of Tallahassee but it is also listed as an unverified business. Maybe the Stratigic Vision dude gets his mail sent to his wife's business.
How's that for detective worK?
The compulsion to gloat after a good round of Whack-a-troll is so hard to resist.
Don,
As for them not knowing what the complaint was, the censure is perfectly clear on what the problem is. Initially, they needed to know:
"who sponsored the survey; who conducted it; a description of the underlying sampling frame; an accounting of how “likely voters” were identified and selected; response rates; and a description of any weighting or estimating procedures used."
Strategic Vision's CEO, David Johnson, then "explicitly refused to provide the requested information," until AAPOR issued a preliminary finding of a violation, at which point he offered some of the requested information, not including how the sample was selected (cause it doesn't look like it was random) and weighted.
As for "I don't know anything about them," come on. AAPOR puts out the top journal in public opinion research, and pretty much every reputable polling firm is a member. Trying to pretend like this is some small, unknown organization is absurd, especially as he's already been cooperating when it comes to the stuff that doesn't make him look too bad.
Don: You left out this part...
The AAPOR specifically said it did not challenge the accuracy of Strategic Vision’s polling.
Of course it can't. If it doesn't know the methodology or internal details - because Strategic Vision LLC won't release them - then it can't make any sort of judgement about how likely the polls are to be accurate.
And moreover, anyone can do this:
Christie 48
Corzine 42
- Are those numbers reasonable? Yes.
- Are they likely to be accurate? Well, they're in concert with the polling data we've been seeing.
- Did I just make those numbers up? Yes.
Same company that produced that ridiculousness about Oklahoma high schoolers not knowing geography. Weird. I knew that thing smelled bad.
Davy, I have tits Darlin', thanks for the Sir' I think, as for the rest of you, do you even know American history, Do you know the Natives were butchered, yep, husband and son, hey Dumbasses, research the name Chicks, that one has got to grab you by the cojones, Oooo, look up that word as well! Be a Patriot, or get the Fuck out of my country! Gail Chicks, Milwaukee, WI (Come see me!)
GChicks said...
Davy, I have tits Darlin', thanks for the Sir' I think, as for the rest of you, do you even know American history, Do you know the Natives were butchered, yep, husband and son, hey Dumbasses, research the name Chicks, that one has got to grab you by the cojones, Oooo, look up that word as well! Be a Patriot, or get the Fuck out of my country! Gail Chicks, Milwaukee, WI (Come see me!)
~~~~~~~~~~
Duly noted Gail and thanx for sharing. As always we'll take your post under advisement and get back to you as soon as possible!
happy trails and it's been a pleasure ...
p.s. Pretty sure all of us here at 538 consider ourselves Patriots and by all means hold onto your guns tightly!
take care
lol per cbs/ny times
“Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan — something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get — that would compete with private health insurance plans?”
Favor 65%
Oppose 26%
GChicks said...
Davy, I have tits Darlin',
Gee, just like a Conservatard - give information that can't be verified, or is true, but not in the manner in which it is presented.
Conservtard 'GChicks' - you might be shocked, SHOCKED, to know that all humans (in fact all mammals) have tits, no matter the sex. The fact that tits on males are (usually) not productive (meaning not able to produce milk) doesn't mean that their tits are not tits. Ever hear the old phrase "As useless as tits on a boar"?
Want to make another try at embarrassing someone without embarrassing your yourself?
Oh, my bad. Conservatards are notoriously poor at being able to do that.
Never mind. Carry on.
Mike in Maryland
Nate- look at employment numbers again
what do you think of this critque of BLS b.s.?
http://seekingalpha.com/article/162862-bls-jobs-numbers-contradict-bls-jobs-numbers
I have a Gatling gun in my bedroom window and a cruise missile pointed at my front walk. I once took a shot at the neighbor's dog because he was looking at me funny. I'm a fucking patriot. An independent voter. Anyone want to visit me? By which I mean, anyone want to fess up and admit that they're scared shitless by my loud and proud display of balls-out awesomeness?
@GChicks
You left no pronouns in your original post. I had a 50/50 chance on identifying your gender. Since most cops are male it seemed statistically probable that you were a dude. No offense was intended or implied.
I think you mean Right wing, teabagging, nut job. Complete with a infantile grasp of the "!st Amendment" and an [edgy!!!!] Facebook pic born straight out of the hellmouth of Deviant Art.
Bing/Google her name, she's been a busy little crazy beaver.
So is Nate still pimping Ann Selzer even after she completely botched her final McCain-Obama Iowa poll?
http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20081101/NEWS09/81101014
And what's this bs about how Selzer did better in the Iowa caucuses than anyone? Selzer had Clinton finishing ahead of Edwards in her final poll. Guess which pollster found Edwards to finish ahead of Clinton? Could it be Strategic Vision?
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/iowa_poll_010208.htm
Both Selzer and Strategic Vision had Obama at 32% but Strategic Vision correctly had Edwards ahead of Clinton, unlike Ann Selzer.
Does Nate or anyone else want to actually refute this data?
Mule—
Any of the newbies yours?
GCChicks is a much more enjoyable troll than Mulie, lets hope he/she/it stays.
Strategic Vision Inc. needs to bring a trademark action against Strategic Vision LLC, anyone want to write to write the first company and let them know?
Nice detective work Davy.
shiloh said...
GChicks said...
Davy, I have tits Darlin', thanks for the Sir' I think, as for the rest of you, do you even know American history, Do you know the Natives were butchered, yep, husband and son, hey Dumbasses, research the name Chicks, that one has got to grab you by the cojones, Oooo, look up that word as well! Be a Patriot, or get the Fuck out of my country! Gail Chicks, Milwaukee, WI (Come see me!)
~~~~~~~~~~
Duly noted Gail and thanx for sharing. As always we'll take your post under advisement and get back to you as soon as possible!
happy trails and it's been a pleasure ...
p.s. Pretty sure all of us here at 538 consider ourselves Patriots and by all means hold onto your guns tightly!
========================================
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaHaaaaHaaaa
Sorry, I couldn't help myself ; )
Resume normal program (Still LMAO).
Wow, Dwight. The internets sure are revealing.
@GChicks
If you're going to post here you need to bring a compelling argument otherwise you run the risk of getting picked apart. After viewing your FB page, it's obvious that you have neither a compelling argument nor a desire to engage in substantive discourse.
Gonna have to agree with Bradford: a psychopathic troll is better then a milquetoast shithead troll any day of the week.
@Tommy Report
I don't understand your post.
You say Selzer & Co. "botched her final McCain-Obama Iowa poll", but the article you link to has Selzer's 10/28-31 numbers at 54-37, Obama, and 3% going to minor candidates, with an MoE of 3.4. There was an unlabeled 6%, which I assume were the Undecideds.
The actual results in Iowa were 53.93-44.39, Obama. Selzer nailed the Obama number, and McCain picked up the undecideds.
How much closer would you like Selzer to have been?
Darn. I just fed a troll, didn't I? Selzer was off-topic. Argh, I always fall for that late at night!
@Badford
Thanks. Gotta give props to Dwight. He totally outed her as a conservatroll
Mick said...
I have a Gatling gun in my bedroom window and a cruise missile pointed at my front walk.
~~~~~~~~~~
So Mick, if you launch your cruise missile your front walk will be destroyed and probably your house and your entire property lol hey, we're cruise missile.
So what's the deal, all the yahoos come out at midnight or what.
p.s. Mick, you the man! and take care of all your awesomeness, 'ya here ...
we're talking cruise missile
and yes Virginia, it was hard concentrating and keeping a straight face when I typed the above post. ;)
Mick's post was so out there, my first thought was he was being facetious ...
carry on
Can somebody tell me what the point of trolling is? I really don't get it.
I mean you go to a website and call somebody a lowlife for posting a home address when they clearly didn't post a home address.
Then when someone points that fact out, you just write a bunch of vitriol that doesn't even make sense.
"Natives were butchered"
"I have guns"
I thought we were talking about polling standards.
Seriously, I really don't get it. What do these people think they have to gain?
And why are all internet message boards always like this?
If you disagree with something somebody else wrote, write an intelligent and logical rebuttal.
What purpose does acting like you are in kindergarten possibly serve?
All, I've passed along an e-mail to the legal dept. @ Strategic Visions Inc. referencing Nate's article. Let's see what fireworks ensue.
Interestingly enough, there's a company with the same name in Birmingham, Alabama since 1993.
@clarkejeffrey: I believe this should answer your question. (The language is a bit salty. Just a tad, though.)
@shiloh: I think you just got Poe's Lawed.
@clarkejeffrey
Can somebody tell me what the point of trolling is? I really don't get it.
Ah. The art of deflection and distraction. An effective weapon to use when you have a weak argument. See also strawman argument on Wikipedia. If your message is weak, attack the forum or the messenger or drag them off topic into an area that you might be able to make them look foolish in. Trolling is an attempt to give an invalid argument credibility.
Plus most trolls like the attention they get by infuriating people and hijacking the conversation. Which is why you hear lots of people tell you not to feed the trolls. Personally, I find it to be a guilty pleasure to whack-a-troll or go troll bashing. I know I shouldn't do it but I feel better defending the perspectives offered on this site than allowing them to go unanswered (plus, it's kinda fun).
Don't get me wrong, I'm sure there are plenty of liberal trolls attacking the conservative sites for the same reasons, although many of those sites tend to be moderated and exclude differing opinions. Don't know, haven't tried.
Anyway, I hope you're not a troll baiting me. :-)
Nosimple,
So you consider a poll showing a 17-point spread to be close to a 9 point spread? I expect better from a pollster that has received so much acclaim from Nate Silver.
Rasmussen's final Iowa poll had Obama leading McCain 52-44. So Selzer nailed Obama's number while Rasmussen nailed McCain's number.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/elections2/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election
However, Rasmussen pretty much nailed the margin of victory for Obama while Selzer's margin of victory was almost double that of the actual margin. Who do you think did better?
You do realize that Nate claims Selzer is terrific despite the fact that Strategic Vision showed the same Iowa caucus percentage for Obama in its final poll as Selzer did and even found Edwards finishing ahead of Clinton, a result that Selzer did not find.
I'm just asking what's so great about Selzer. If she's so strong in Iowa, then why did Strategic Vision and Rasmussen effectively take her lunch money with their final polls in the caucus and general election, respectively. The data is the data.
After all, Nate is the one calling Strategic Vision, a pollster that nailed the Iowa caucus (even more so than Selzer did), sketchy.
A broken clock is right twice a day. Also, AAPOR - and Nate - aren't necessarily implying that SV is wrong in its polling, it's stating that it's unscientific. Subtle difference.
For example, I could say right now that God caused the Big Bang, and it was a divine explosion. Wrong? Maybe, maybe not. There's no way to tell. Unscientific? Hell yeah; no proof was provided.
Also, Rasmussen has also been acclaimed by Nate with regards to his electoral polling; Ras held one of the pole positions, I believe, in the 2008 Presidential model. (His opinion polling, I think, leaves a bit to be desired, for multiple reasons. For example, using likely voter models over a year in advance of the next general election, and the fact that he tends to focus on strong likes and strong dislikes.) The commenters disagree, but that's not Nate himself saying that. Or any of the writers, in fact.
I'd never heard of Poe's Law before. That makes a lot of sense. I've sort of wondered whether people like Rush Limbaugh were really deep cover liberals.
I'm not sure its even a strawman argument though. A strawman is just a misrepresentation of the other side's belief. We've all done that a little. We probably do it without even realizing we're doing it most of the time. In a strawman argument, you are still being logical. Your caricature of the other side isn't logical. Hence you win the argument. In trolling, they don't even try to be logical.
I guess the only point is to infuriate people. Thats really pathological and disturbing. Picking a fight with strangers just to piss them off. You really have to reexamine your life if thats a hobby.
As for the art of deflection and a weak argument. Personally, I agree with the Democrat party on about 70% of the issues. I agree with the Republicans on about 10% of the issues. I'm undecided on the other 20%. Frankly, I think both sides have the stronger argument on every issue I agree with them on. There is a pretty direct cause and effect thing going on here. If I thought the Dems have a weak argument on issue A, I wouldn't be agreeing with them on it.
I guess what I'm saying is that nobody ever thinks they have weak argument on anything they believe in. Maybe if you are a lawyer representing somebody, you might have to try the art of deflection, etc. but why bother when its just a stupid message board. If somebody makes sense, agree with them. If they don't make sense, point out where you disagree.
But just yelling inane insults....Didn't we stop that in kindergarten.
And if you don't like this post, its probably because your mother is ugly!!
Tommy,
It looks like your reading an awful lot in to one poll that they got wrong. I don't think anybody here ever argued that Selzer was perfect, only that they have a very good track record and open methodology.
Focusing on one poll is like saying that the Nationals are better than the Yankees because they beat them 2 out of 3 this year, while ignoring all the other 2009 evidence.
I think 538 did a whole report card where they analyzed all of the pollsters results and that is how they came to the conclusion that Selzer was the best.
Its interesting you mention Rasmussen because they also got high grades in that report card.
Inferno said...
@shiloh: I think you just got Poe's Lawed.
~~~~~~~~~~
Well, my follow-up post mentioned being facetious, still at 538, one can never be too sure lol.
The internet(s) tends to bring out the crazies! er birthers er deathers er 10thers er secessionists er the dwindling Rep party ...
Is there nothing Strategic Vision, inc can do about this? This seems to me a pretty clear attempt by Strategic Vision, LLC to muddy the waters and confuse people about who is saying what.
One of the things about the internet I guess is that its not so difficult for a small start up to look professional.
1. Are you actually polling anyone at all? Or are you just throwing some numbers up on a webpage and hoping nobody calls you on it?
That could be said about most polls done.
2. What is the location of your "offices" in Tallahassee, Madison and Dallas? Why is there no street address or phone number listed in association with them? How come none of the locations show up in a Yahoo! or Google search?
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/contact_us.html
Maybe he didn't pay Google and Yahoo for top billing
3. Why would you pick the name "Strategic Vision, LLC" for your company when the name "Strategic Vision, Inc."
Because he can, whether you feel it's ethical or not is pointless. There are many businesses with a name like Strategic Visions
From TalkingPointeMemo (the poll references might be worth a Nate post):
"From the new Times/CBS poll out this evening ...
"Would you favor or oppose the government offering everyone a government administered health insurance plan -- something like the Medicare coverage that people 65 and older get -- that would compete with private health insurance plans?"
Favor 65%
Oppose 26%
Interestingly, according to the poll, support for a public option has jumped 5 points since late August and opposition to it has dropped 8 points. "
Look at their web site and in two seconds one call tell it was done on the extreme cheap. The FAQ page has nothing, and there is a ton more.
@shiloh: I think you just got Poe's Lawed.
I must admit I'm torn between the ideas that "Gail Chicks" really is that much of a nut job, that wears other's claims of that as somewhat of a badge of honour, or someone hamming it up.
@Inferno
The best part of that page is the "quiz" where you're supposed to discern the parodies from the real web sites. I got the first two right away, but I'll admit, I had trouble finding the third. That Time Cube stuff is amazing. It's like outsider art.
Don said
'1. Are you actually polling anyone at all? Or are you just throwing some numbers up on a webpage and hoping nobody calls you on it?
That could be said about most polls done.
2. What is the location of your "offices" in Tallahassee, Madison and Dallas? Why is there no street address or phone number listed in association with them? How come none of the locations show up in a Yahoo! or Google search?
http://www.strategicvision.biz/political/contact_us.html
Maybe he didn't pay Google and Yahoo for top billing
3. Why would you pick the name "Strategic Vision, LLC" for your company when the name "Strategic Vision, Inc."
Because he can, whether you feel it's ethical or not is pointless. There are many businesses with a name like Strategic Visions'
--------------------------------
1 Nate's point is that SV LLC don't post any details about methodology, exact polling details etc. This is fairly standard for a reputable polling company to release.
2. Its not top billing Nate is concerned with, its any billing at all. Google and Yahoo searches come up with no evidence of that business in those locations. Try searching for a small local company in your locale, and more than likely you will find it.
3. There is no evidence that there are 'many businesses' with names like Strategic Vision. A google search certainly doesn't bring up millions of companies.
"Because he can, whether you feel it's ethical or not is pointless. There are many businesses with a name like Strategic Visions"
I'm not an attorney, but my understanding of trademark law is that he can't. It looks like a clear attempt to obfuscate.
Ultimately, you can name a business with a similar name in a completely unrelated industry. But if you are selling the same product to the same customers, you should prepare yourself for a lawsuit.
If I open up Enterprise consulting or Enterprise books, I'm okay. If I open up anything to do with car rentals and use the name Enterprise, I've got a problem.
But as I said, I'm not an attorney. There are loopholes. There is a beer in the Czech republic named Budweiser that has no connection to Anheuser-Busch. The two companies have been fighting over the name for well over a century.
@clarkejeffrey
Same thing with Apple Computers and Apple Records (the Beatles label). They've been in and out of court almost a dozen times. Apple Computers finally settled the last suit with the caveat that Apple Records stop suing them every time they have a new innovation (the last suit involved a complaint by Apple Records that the iPod robbed them of copyright revenue).
Apple Records has the argument of first trademark while Apple Computers argue that they aren't competing in the same industry (which is no longer true). Both are true which is why Apple Records has the upper hand even though they no longer have the market recognition that Apple Computers does.
Haven't read every comment, so I don't know if this has been covered before...
I've had businesses for years with addresses that were only postboxes, I can't imagine why anyone would think there was anything wrong with that. In fact, I currently have a business whose address is at a UPS store, which happened when UPS bought the chain I was using (Mailboxes Etc., I believe).
To prevent abuse of these boxes, the feds were going to implement a policy that you could not use the word "suite" in your address, you had to use "PMB" (personal mail box) instead. After getting a lot of flack, they changed it so that you didn't have to say PMB, you could say # or something like that -- but, unless it's been changed, you still can't claim to be in a suite. (I know there was a note here to the contrary, my guess is that that's still the law, but I can't imagine that it's widely enforced, if at all.)
Also, as part of the law, if you rent a PMB, you have to provide an ID and a real address, which I believe the PMB store owner forwards to the USPS. This doesn't mean that you and I can get that info, but in case of legal problems, it is available.
Here is quite a lengthy list of companies with the name strategic visions, or something similar... enjoy!
https://smallbusiness.dnb.com/ePlatform/servlet/IballValidationCmd?referrer=gwslookup&storeId=10001&catalogId=70001&busName=strategic+visions&state=US&country=US&cm_mmc=dnb*home*gws*lookup
1 Nate's point is that SV LLC don't post any details about methodology, exact polling details etc. This is fairly standard for a reputable polling company to release.
Why is Nate so worried about this pollster? Nate?? It isn't against the law to publish a poll without methodology. Just because AAPOR wants them to doesn't mean they have to.
2. Its not top billing Nate is concerned with, its any billing at all. Google and Yahoo searches come up with no evidence of that business in those locations. Try searching for a small local company in your locale, and more than likely you will find it.
Actually,
http://www.google.com/search?hl=en&client=opera&rls=en&hs=KN0&q=strategic+visions&start=10&sa=N
3. There is no evidence that there are 'many businesses' with names like Strategic Vision. A google search certainly doesn't bring up millions of companies.
Millions of course not, come on, here are many of them though..
https://smallbusiness.dnb.com/ePlatform/servlet/IballValidationCmd?referrer=gwslookup&storeId=10001&catalogId=70001&busName=strategic+visions&state=US&country=US&cm_mmc=dnb*home*gws*lookup
You guys leave GChicks alone, she has powerful friends like the always honorable and never obfuscating G. Gordon Liddy.
Please tell me someone else saw that on her FB page. Too funny.
By the way the chat function at SV, LLC is no longer functioning due to "recent improper use." I'll put my two cents in with the guy/gail that said not to cross the line and mess with the accused directly. Innocent until proven guilty and all that.
If were talking addresses...
AAPOR's address is listed as
American Association for Public Opinion Research
111 Deer Lake Road, Suite 100
Deerfield, Illinois 60015
+1-847-205-2651
Fax: +1-847-480-9282
The Sherwood Group address is listed as...
111 Deer Lake Road, Suite 100
Deerfield, IL 60015 USA
Phone: +1 847/480-9080
Fax :+1 847/480-9282
same address, hell even the same FAX number.... the plot thickens nate...
clarkejeffrey said...
Ultimately, you can name a business with a similar name in a completely unrelated industry. But if you are selling the same product to the same customers, you should prepare yourself for a lawsuit.
Actually, it depends on the resources (money + attorneys) that each side has.
Just ask "Sony" Florendo (a nickname she had been known by since before Sony Corporation was created) what happened when she opened Sony's Restaurant in Baltimore City, and Sony Corporation sued her for 'infringing upon the Sony trademark'.
Google 'Sony restaurant Baltimore' or 'Sony Florendo'.
Summary: "Sony" Florendo had fewer resources than Sony Corporation, and lost the suit. Last I heard, Sony Corporation has NEVER been directly or indirectly involved in the restaurant business, and Sony's Restaurant did not operate as anything but a restaurant, and especially did not sell electronics.
So in what ways would a restaurant be in direct competition for the same customers as an electronics business? None that I know of. Yet, because Sony Corporation had more resources, Ms. Florendo was forced to rename her business or shut it down.
Mike in Maryland
Don said...
If were talking addresses...
Just wondering if you received failing grades in English composition?
By the second grade (maximum), most people learn the difference between the words "were" (as in past tense) and "we are" (as in 'all of us', and which is contracted as "we're"). In fact, most people understand the difference between "were" and "we're" before they enter kindergarten.
Mike in Maryland
Oh thank you so much Mike! I will be far more careful and ensure that I strike all the keys hard enough. Please have mercy on me, I have printed out your wonderful lesson in English comp and will carry it with me always! No hopefully you feel better about yourself and maybe you can add something substantial and relevant. I find it highly unlikely though.
These addresses are private mail boxes at UPS stores. USPS determines if an address is valid. Someone probably comes in once a week, picks up the mail, then puts in a large envelope, and sends it to their real offices. A lot of small businesses do this rather than a physical address. But one thing is that UPS Stores have to file a monthly list of all names and address for holders of their private boxes. These are put into a database for fraud and such by Postal Inspectors. Gives them something to do!
There's nothing inherently nefarious about having a post office box or other mail drop for your business, or for a satellite location. I use a PO box for my business rather than have packages come to the house and possibly sit in the mailbox or on the porch while I'm away. It's quite possible that these satellite "offices" are somebody (or several somebodies) working from home.
If SV LLC is a small, distributed organization and doesn't have its own shiny corporate tower I'd expect something like this.
Cbs/Times poll--65%pro/26%con---1 John M.supporter for every 3 Barack O.supporter. While the data would be accurate---The results would be deceptive!
Not only does their Madison address lead to the UPS Store, if you go to googlemaps and search for "Strategic Vision," the only result in Wisconsin is the address of the Waunakee Village Hall.
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