Races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing parties (by November 2010, accounting for all factors such as potential retirements, primary challenges, and so forth).
Likelihood of party switch has increased since last month's rankings.
Likelihood of party switch has decreased since last month.
1. Missouri (R-Open)
Steady as she goes for all-but-assured Democratic nominee Robin Carnahan, who begins with a slight lead in the polls, while Republican Roy Blunt is facing a potentially nasty primary (EDIT: Although it now looks like Sarah Steelman may run for the House instead).
2. Kentucky (R-Bunning)
Attorney General Jack Conway has thus far outfundraised intraparty rival Daniel Mongiardo. That is arguably good news for the Democrats, since Conway has tested slightly stronger than Mongiardo against extremely vulnerable Republican incumbent Jim Bunning.
3. New Hampshire (R-Open)
Some big news for Republicans in the Granite State, where popular AG Kelly Ayoette appears poised to enter the Senate race, a big upgrade for Republicans over a retread like John Sununu or Charlie Bass. Ayoette polled somewhat better than either Sununu or Bass in the only public survey to feature her name to date and also had a small lead over Democratic nominee Paul Hodes. There are lots of undecideds in this notoriously late-deciding state, so expect it to remain a toss-up long into the future.
4. Connecticut (D-Dodd)
Leading GOP rival Rob Simmons, who hadn't reported any fundraising in the first quarter, now says he brought in $750K in the second, a number that rates at about par in a wealthy state like Connecticut. Meanwhile, Simmons is starting to get more competition for the Republican nomination, as businessman Tom Foley, the former Ambassador to Ireland, claims to have raised $500,000 in less than a month, and stockbroker and contrarian economist Peter Schiff, who advised Ron Paul's presidential campaign, is testing the waters with internal polling. I personally think the Republicans' fortunes will take a big hit if they nominate a plutocrat like Foley or Schiff rather than Simmons, who while a bit underwhelming on the stump, is a former Congressman and lifelong public servant. But this being Connecticut, there are no shortage of rich guys hoping to get in on the action.
5. Ohio (R-Open)
Races #3-5 are pretty much interchangable. There are several more polls out showing Democrats Jennifer Brunner and Lee Fisher with small leads over former OMB director Rob Portman, but as Portman's name recognition lags behind that of the Democrats, this race still continues to rate as more of a toss-up.
6. Delaware (D-Open)
Will Mike Castle run or won't he? People are reading the tea leaves both ways. Right now, we're pricing in about a 50-55 percent chance that Castle does decide to enter. If he's in, this race will shoot up the list to at least #3 and possibly higher. If he's out, it drops from the top 15.
7. Colorado (D-Bennet)
I'm not really sure why this race isn't attracting more attention -- both from some of the stronger potential Republican candidates and from possible intraparty challengers to Michael Bennet. While Bennet has done nothing in particular to offend Coloradans' sensibilities, he's also mostly unknown to them; a Republican internal poll, for instance, found that 63 percent of the state has no opinion of Bennet. As we've said before, this is effectively an open-seat race -- and usually open-seat races attract busy fields of candidates.
8. North Carolina (R-Burr)
Multiple polls have shown incumbent Richard Burr with extremely low approval ratings, which has led to the somewhat unorthodox decision by the Burr camp to start criticizing the pollsters. This happens all the time in campaigns, but not usually 16 months before the election when you don't yet have a declared opponent. I doth think Burr protesteth too much, even though he caught a break in May when Roy Cooper decided not to challenge him.
9. Illinois (D-Burris)
It looked on Wednesday that Mark Kirk was in the running for Barack Obama's former senate seat, then it looked like he was out, and now -- nobody's quite certain. I'm not sure why Kirk, who also waited months until Lisa Madigan declined enter the race before declaring his interest, is such a delicate little flower, but running for statewide office in Illinois takes elbows and Blagojevich balls, and if he's not fully vested in the race, I wonder if he's going to be as strong a candidate as the Republicans are hoping. Meanwhile, the Democratic field may be clearing up a bit, as Roland Burris is officially retiring and as it's not clear that Chris Kennedy will challenge Alexi Giannoulias. This race is in one of those interminable holding patterns above O'Hare Airport for now, but should break one way or the other soon.
10. Louisiana (R-Vitter)
Charlie Melancon, the only remaining Democratic Congressman from Louisiana, now seems poised to challenge David Vitter; he trailed Vitter by just 7 points in a Research 2000 poll in March in spite of much inferior statewide name recognition. If Melancon confirms his interest, this is a pretty big coup for the Democrats and at the very least will force Republicans to spend a lot of money to hold Vitter's seat.
11. Nevada (Sr.) (D-Reid)
Earlier, I claimed that the new senate rankings would contain five Democratic-held seats in the top ten. I'm now backing off that after evaluating the landscape more thoroughly in Nevada, where the few non-corrupt Republicans like Jon Porter and Dean Heller seem increasingly disinclined to challenge Harry Reid. And who can blame them, when the John Ensign scandal has proliferated enough that they will almost certainly have the shot at an open seat in 2012 -- if not sooner?
12. Texas (R-Open?)
I'm giving this race a slight nudge downward because Kay Bailey Hutchison has fallen behind incumbent governor Rick Perry in the polls and it wouldn't completely shock me if she decides that the Senate is a pretty comfy place instead. One interesting wrinkle if Hutchison does decide to run for governor (as is still probable): Texas would hold a nonpartisan blanket primary for her senate seat, with the two leading candidates squaring off in the run-off. It's not entirely out of the question that those two leading candidates could both be from the same party.
13. Pennsylvania (D-Specter)
Most of the action here is on the Democratic primary side, where Joe Sestak is slowly but steadily closing his gap with Arlen Specter. Pat Toomey remains nominally within striking distance of the Democrats in the general election, but I think his numbers will plateau as Pennsylvanians realize how conservative he is.
14. Florida (R-Open)
I know that the Marco Rubio people are increasingly excited about their prospects of knocking off Charlie Crist. For our purposes, though, I'm not sure how much it matters, because Rubio would still be at least even-money (and frankly probably the slight favorite) against probable Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek.
15. New York (Jr.) (D-Gillibrand)
Here's the last in our trifecta of races where the primary battle should be more pitched than the general election one. To this point, I don't see any reason to think that the prospect of George Pataki running is anything more than wishful thinking on Republicans' behalves. The Gillibrand people I've spoken with, for their part, seem more focused on the primary battle against Carolyn Maloney. Gillibrand's approval numbers seem to be inching upward as voters get to know her better, although her getting by Maloney is by no means a sure thing.
16. Nevada (Jr.) (R-Ensign?)
A new addition to our rankings. John Ensign has not yet resigned his seat and probably won't, but it's our job to evaluate these sorts of contingencies. If the scandal blows up any further, one wonders whether he won't become tempted to ride off into the Vegas sunset, particularly when Nevada has a Republican governor who could name a Republican replacement. If that happens, though, the race is subject to a special election in 2010, and Democrats like Shelley Berkley, who are already licking their chops for 2012, could decide to descend on the seat.
17. North Dakota (D-Dorgan)
News to me: popular incumbent governor John Hoeven seems to be considering a challenge to popular incumbent senator Byron Dorgan. Hoeven was well behind in the only public poll of the race and has two years left in his term. To me, this feels mostly like a bluff, designed to force Dorgan's hand on policies like cap-and-trade. But I'd expect this to ultimately become a single-digit race if Hoeven did decide to enter.
18. Arkansas (D-Lincoln)
19. California (D-Boxer)
Carly Fiorina has had a rough couple of years, first getting fired by Hewlett-Packard (her company's stock jumped 7 points that day) and then getting mothballed by the McCain campaign after criticizing her party's own VP nominee. But she's apparently poised to run against Democratic incumbent Barbara Boxer. Boxer had a 30-point lead against Fiorina in a March poll and probably has no particular reason to fear her, but Fiorina is at least likely to be a good fundraiser, which should force Boxer to stay on her toes.
20. Iowa (R-Grassley)
21. Georgia (R-Isakson)
22. Arizona (R-McCain)
John McCain probably has nothing to fear from Republican wacko Chris Simcox, but what about this guy?
23. Hawaii (D-Inoyue)
There's actually a fresh poll of a prospective run by governor Linda Lingle against octogenarian incumbent Daniel Inouye (who won a Medal of Honor in World War II!) but it reveals the same thing that we knew before, which is that Lingle will probably have to wait for a retirement to have a real shot at a seat in Congress.
24. Wisconsin (D-Feingold)
Two new polls show Feingold with a double-digit lead over hypothetical Republican challenger Paul Ryan, who has denied any interest in the race and seems to be waiting for Herb Kohl to retire instead.
25. Oklahoma (R-Coburn)
After a few moments of doubt, the likes of which haven't gripped Oklahoma Barry Switzer announced he was leaving for the Cowboys, Tom Coburn declared he was officially running for re-election in 2010, and all was right with the world.
26. Alaska (R-Murkowski)
I'll take 50-1 that Sarah Palin somehow gets involved here and messes this thing up.
27. Kansas (R-Open)
28. Maryland (D-Mikulski)
29. South Carolina (R-DeMint)
30. Washington (D-Murray)
31. Alabama (R-Shelby)
32. South Dakota (R-Thune)
Stephanie Herseth-Sandlin, as expected, announced she'll run again for the Congress rather than challenging Thune or running for the open governor's seat.
33. Indiana (D-Bayh)
34. Vermont (D-Leahy)
35. Oregon (D-Wyden)
36. Utah (R-Bennett)
37. New York (Sr.) (D-Schumer)
38. Idaho (R-Crapo)
7.13.2009
Senate Rankings, July 2009 Edition
@ 6:00 AM
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41 comments
It's Kelly Ayotte.
Could we potentially look forward to descriptions of some of the other races that haven't had any.
Are these rankings merely in relation to each other? MO may be #1 in party switchery but what's the % chance it will really change parties?
That Obama-McCain Onion article was priceless!
There's something weird about the Strategic Vision poll-it's got Obama's approval at 60/30, about the same as Crist, while Rasmussen's got him at 46/50.
If Rubio wins the FL Senate primary, he'll easily win in November-beating Crist will be almost impossible, he'll need phenomenal messaging, fundraising and GOTV to win the primary-if he can do that without establishment backing, Meek, whom the DSCC has already abandoned, won't stand a chance.
Portman will probably lose-many people blame free trade for costing Ohio so many jobs. Portman is a hardcore free trade advocate and even served as trade representative, so nominally GOP groups, like socially conservative union members, will vote heavily Democratic. His district gave Bush over 60% both times and gave McCain 59%, and Cincinnati's blue enough that his roots in the area won't make a real difference.
It's about time, Nate...as the 2010 elections approach, you need to be MUCH more vigilant about putting the Senate rankings nearer to the beginning of the month. Having said that, keep up the good work!
Rasmussen will always keep polling until he gets the result he wants, pro gop. The only time this guy polls honestly is presidentail polling because he wants to be known as a good pollster.
Even in the last election he undercounted Obama support until the last week when he knew he couldn`t BS people anymore if he wanted to taken seriously.
He is the only pollster who shows the republicans favored in congressional elections over democrats, you just can`t take the guy seriously except when it comes to presidential polling 1 week before election.
Obama vs McCain???!!! lol. I think Obama should be happy where he is now.
While Colorado should be behaving as if it is an open seat, the Republicans have a minor problem: No bench.
Spend some time at Colorado Pols and you will see what I mean.
As a Pennsylvania voter, I have to say that Pat Toomey is scary as hell. While I can't say for certain yet, he's right up there with Santorum and I wouldn't be surprised if he's scarier.
Specter has the experience, the independence, and my vote.
Out of curiosity Chimichanga...
If the Pennsylvania Democratic primary electorate nominates Sestak over Specter, would you still vote for Sestak?
I doubt any of these rankings are useful right now, mostly because the elections are over a year away, but also because we can expect a lot to happen in that amount of time. Two months ago, who would have seen Ensign and Sanford coming? Please keep an open mind and wait for polling to improve (yes, even Rasmussen) with time.
I really don't think Chris Dodd is going to lose in Connecticut. As long as the economy improves and people remember his track record then he should do fine.
Thanks, Nate!
I seriously doubt that Ensign will resign. Whether he'll run for reelection in 2012 is up for debate, but he doesn't seem likely to retire early. (As an aside, he ought to be sending thank-you notes to Sanford and Palin for creating distractions interesting enough to make everyone almost forget he had an affair.)
It would be great to have some fresh polling out for Connecticut. I'm inclined to think that Dodd's numbers (both approval rating and matchups against potential nominees) are improving, but that's just a pure guess on my part.
Rubio and Crist both are saddled with a horrid State Legislative session with a host of bad bills that Rubio pushed through and Crist signed when he should have vetoed them (probably in self defense against Rubio).
There has been a lot of silence from the pubbie controlled press but there is gold there if Meek and the other Dems can make them better known.
Amanda - Ensign's resignation depends entirely on Gibbons's win next year, unless he's forced out early. In any event, he'll need to leave so that Gibbons can replace him (probably with Porter). If it starts to look like the Dems are going to beat Gibbons, then Ensign will be "forced out" ahead of the election but too soon for the special election. The GOP is hoping he can evade an ethics inquiry that long at least. Not too likely. If Ensign does resign, then Coburn might have to write him off or face not running for re-election himself, which would leave Brad Henry with a fair chance in OK. I'd run Henry for Senate on the off-chance anyway.
In LA, the GOP should primary Vitter with Kennedy. He may be a softer vote for them than Vitter, but he could beat Melancon. If Vitter is the nominee (probably, due to his being the most conservative with name recognition) they should lose.
I'd like to see a table like last year's tracking the % likelihood of Dems getting to 67 in the Senate as these races break one way or the other. I count 6 pickups for the Dems: MO, KY, NH, NC (why not run Easley or Bowles?), LA, OH and either FL or OK (a maybe on NV). I wouldn't bet on Repubs taking any of the 4 they have serious shots at. It could come down to getting the ME ladies to switch over a la Spector...?
BlueRevolution,
It takes a lot of nerve to tell Nate how to do his job! If you follow this site, then you should be aware that he's been in Vegas and so hasn't posted as frequently. Is that OK with you? Or should Nate get your permission before vacationing?
I can't imagine that Burris' decision to retire doesn't decrease the likelihood of a party switch. Removing Burris and his tainted appointment from the Democratic primary makes it far less likely that any Republican challenger will be able to make hay from the controversy. And without that controversy high in voters' minds what is the chance of Obama's seat going to a Republican? I just don't see it.
Nice Job, though a little bit late. But, in the next senate rankings could you please make a summary on your thoughts. Like if this month was a good month or a bad month dems or reps. Or just some sort of conclusion. I look forward to your next senate rankings!
Mark
Nate,
At what point in the rankings is the cut-off point of 'reasonable' possibility of change and no chance without extraordinary conditions?
I ask this because I can't believe that Senator Mikulski, a VERY popular Democrat running in a VERY heavily Democratic state, is ranked 5 places ahead of Senator Bayh, a popular Democrat running in a heavily Republican state (Indiana is tending to purple, but is STILL a red state, people).
If the rankings are by point differential, I can see a listing of all seats in some order. However, I still think that the method needs some tweeking.
At what point does the point differential become meaningless? At No. 10/11? At No. 15/16? 20/21? And why don't you indicate that in the rankings?
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Ayotte in NH is getting a lot of buzz from politicos close to current Sen. Judd Gregg. She doesn't get much recognition from voters. In NH Attorney General is an appointed position, not elected. She has never been tested running for any office.
The survey mention was pretty flawed. It polled more Republican voters than Democrats or Independents. That voter ID does not match current reality. There are now more registered Democrats than Republicans in NH, and Independents outnumber both.
Ayotte will also face a perception problem. She was reappointed to another 4 year term as AG in April, and now she is "pulling a Palin" Many here see her move as abandoning her responsibilities in her quest for higher office. Democratic Gov. John Lynch took some heat from his own party when he reappointed her just over 3 months ago - a bipartisan move on his part that recognized her solid work as AG. Now she's ditching her job, a job that lobbied for an happily accepted 3 months into a 4 year term. This will not play well with Democrats, nor with many Independents. She can't win with just Republican votes.
Her claims that she "intended" to complete the 4 year term, but the climate has changed so drastically are disingenuous. The fact that Gregg wasn't running was known back in Jan. While Sununu the Younger sitting out this race creates room on the Republican side, it still makes her look power hungry to ditch the AG job.
Most of the "rich guys" in Connecticut live in Fairfield County and consider themselves expatriate New Yorkers. They don't care about Connecticut and those of us who grew up here know it.
I agree with anelson, Dodd should be reelected with no problem. His is an old political family here in the state and while he'll certainly take a hit, he's a native son that won't be tossed aside easily.
Nate, how come the Georgia race is ranked so high? You always have it somewhere in the low 20s but with no comment explaining this. Do you know something we don't? Is Shirley Franklin running and hasn't told anyone yet?
Yikes I hope Shirley Franklin isn't running!
Interesting - I didn't think that Nate read the comments anymore, but in the thread where he suggested that 5 out of the top 10 were Republican pick ups, I argued that it would be hard to justify ranking Nevada above NC, LA and TX. Sure enough, Nate rethought that one. Of course, he might have come to the same conclusion independently.
I think that I agree with these rankings more than any of those of recent months. My list would probably be this:
1. MO - should have been a toss up, but Blount seems like a pretty weak candidate
2. NH - I know that Republicans are excited to recruit Ayotte, but she has never been elected to anything whereas Hodes represents half of the state. Plus NH is trending Dem.
3. KY - Bunning looks dead in the water, but I think it substantially more likely that Greyson will end up being the R nominee and he should have a 50-50 chance at worst.
4. OH - Portman will be a credible candidate, but I don't seem being a former Bush Trade Rep as a good profile for running in OH. Portman should do well in Southwest and West Central OH, but may have trouble in the rest of the state. So I see the Dems as having a slight edge at this point.
5. CT - Dodd is in trouble, but winning as a Rep in CT is still very hard. And Foley could mess things up for Simmons who would be a stronger opponent. Dodd could really use a health care victory to run on.
6. CO - Bennet will probably end up being OK and if the Republicans don't find a credible challanger this could move down the list.
7. NC - Looks like the Dems might not get a top tier recruit. On the other hand, if 2008 is any guide, they might not need one. Of course, with any relatively untested candidate like Cunningham, there is a risk that they will turn out to be a dud. I'm tempted to put it ahead of CO, but it is hard to say since much depends on the political climate in 2010.
8. IL - Kirk looks like a credible candidate. Dems should be favored to hold though, absent scandal or extremely unfavorable climate.
9. DE - I'm far from convinced that Castle will run. I also would not put too much stock in recent polls showing him leading Biden by a substantial margin. Biden will have lots of money and an appealing story (serving in Iraq) as well as great connections. Castle is old and hasn't been raising huge amounts of money. I might put it at 6 if I knew that Castle were running. Otherwise it drops off the list.
10 - LA A real uphilll fight for Dems under any other circumstances, but they got their top candidate, so it should be close at least. Getting to 50.001% from 46% or 47% might be hard though . . .
11 -TX Maybe I should rank this higher, but Dems haven't done too well in state wide races in TX recently so I'm a bit hesistent to do so. Hutchison is running for Gov - she just reaffirmed it today.
12 - NV Reid poll numbers are weak, but there is no other indication that the Republicans are going to win. Even worse Ensigns troubles will encourage potential candidates to wait for 2012 when there might be an open seat.
13 - PA Toomey isn't well known yet, but has lots of money. Dem primary could be ugly. Toomey would have a hard time against either Specter or Sestak given their strengths in suburban Philly, but I wouldn't count him out. I know that some people think that he is too extreme to win in PA, but remember that PA elected Rick Santorum twice.
14 - ND Competitive if Hoeven runs. More than you can say for most other races below this point.
15 - AR In a bad political environment for the Dems, this one could get competitive. Lincoln should be safe in a neutral environment, but the state does seem to be trending R.
Bennett ought to make a better case for himself, if his record in Denver is to guess off of...he seems pretty clean cut and clean of political crapola, which Coloradans have little appetite for.
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How is this for irony:
Coburn took some time deciding whether to run or not (and if he hadn't Democrats would have had an excellent chance to pick up the seat with Governor Henry.)
Then not long after he decided that he would in fact run, he got spattered with collateral crap from the Ensign scandal (though Coburn himself certainly was not in any way involved with it.)
Now, if he hadn't decided when he did it would have been much tougher to announce he was going to run within the past couple of weeks, or for that matter while the scandal keeps unfolding so therefore if he hadn't decided when he did to run the news might be giving him a push the other way.
Check Bob Krause against Chuck Grassley. His web site at http://www.krauseforiowa.com is getting about 250 hits per day with no money and no advertising. The "Health Care for America" group and many others are beating Grassly up badly in the Health Care debate - especially for his remark stating that "if you want good health care insurance, go to work for the federal government!"
16. DINA TITUS! DINA TITUS! DINA TITUS!
That is all.
I'm not so sure that Chris Dodd's seat should be so high up on the list as far as chance of switching parties goes. Yes, at one point he polled on parity with Simmons, but that was when he was taking the most heat. Now he's been very visible on health care reform, and putting a lot of face time in various parts of the state. Don't forget that he's an able fundraiser and will likely have a huge monetary advantage over his GOP opponent even if that person gets propped up with RNC money.
My 2010 US Senate Ranking. (Top 10)
1)MO- This is going to be like 2006 Pennslyvania US Senate Race.,- Democrats have nominated a popular statewide elected official with a household last name(Carnahan name is huge in MO.). The Republican nominee Roy Blunt is a polarizing figure.
2)KY- The Republican incumbent Jim Bunning is weak in the similar situation as Rick Santorum(PA-2006)or Conrad Burns(MT-2006). Democrats have two popular statewide elected officials.(AG Jack Conway or LG Dan Mongiardo).
3)NH- Open Seat in State Trending Blue. Democratic Nominee Paul Hodes is likely to benifit from Governor John Lynch's Coattails.
4)OH- Battleground Senate Race between- a former Republican US Congressman who served in the Cabinet of a unpopular former President and is a free trader vs. a Democratic Statewide Elected Official(LG Lee Fisher or S.O.S Jennifer Brunner).
5)CT- Dodd is the most vulnerable Democratic incumbent up for re-election in 2010.
6)DE- It all depends on Mike Castle-R. Castle runs- It is a tossup. If Castle does not run. Safe Biden.
7)NC- Burr has low approval ratings and seat changes parties- Need a credible Democratic challenger.
8)CO- Bennett is appointed. Low name recognition. May face primary challenge. Republicans have yet to field Top Tier challenger.
9)IL- OPEN Seat in Blue State between two top tier candidates from both parties. Democratic Nominee Alexi Giannoulias- State Treasurer/F.O.B- Republican Nominee- US Rep Mark Kirk. Leans Democratic.
10)LA- Fairly polarizing GOP incumbent vs Credible Democratic Challenger- Charlie Melancon- but state is too red to elect a Democrat to the US Senate.
My 2010 US Senate Ranking.
Safe Incumbent Hold.
36)ID(Crapo-R)
35)NY(Schumer-D)
34)UT(Bennett-R)
33)OR(Wyden-D)
32)IN(Bayh-D)
31)ND(Dorgan-D)
30)MD(Mikulski-D)
29)AL(Shelby-R)
28)VT(Leahy-D)
27)AZ(McCain-R)
26)HI(Inouye-D)
25)IA(Grassley-R)
24)SD(Thune-R)
23)AK(Murkowski-R)
22)SC(DeMint-R)
21)OK(Coburn-R)
20)GA(Isakson-R)
19)WI(Feingold-D)
Potentially Competitive/Incumbent Strongly Favored.
18)WA(Murray-D)
17)CA(Boxer-D)
16)AR(Lincoln-D)
15)NY(Gillibrand-D)
14)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
13)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
12)NV(Reid-D)
Competitive/narrow incumbent advantage.
11)PA(Specter-D)
10)LA(Vitter-R)
9)CO(Bennett-D)
8)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)
7)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
6)NC(Burr-R)
Tossup
5)CT(Dodd-D)
4)NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)
3)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
Lean Takeover
2)KY(Bunning-R)
1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)
MO is an open seat battleground state which has the strong Democratic candidate vs a weak Republican candidate.
KY has two top tier Democratic challengers against a weak GOP incumbent.
OH is an open seat battleground state with a generic Democratic candidate vs an overhyped GOP candidate. If the race is about Bush43 or Portman's view on Free Trade- Portman loses.
NH- open seat in battleground state between generic Democratic candidate vs a moderate Republican candidate in mold of Collins/Snowe.
CT- Dodd is a weak Democratic incumbent facing re-election due to bad publicity. This race has a potential of moving to the safe collumn.
NC- Burr is a weak GOP incumbent. Can lose to a second tier Democratic challenger.
DE- It all depends on Mike Castle- If Castle runs- DE is competitive. If Castle does not run. DE is safe for Biden.
IL- The race is competive but Democratic nominee Alexi Giannoulias is favored to win due to ties to Obama.
CO- Bennett is safe due to lack of opposition but vulnerable due to lack of name recognition.
It is doubtful that any of the Democratic Senate Seats are going to switch parties.
CT- Dodd is vulnerable due to bad publicity- otherwise he is an elderstatesman statewide elected official. Simmons is a weak challenger.
DE- It depends on what Castle does. It is highly unlikely Castle runs.
CO- Bennett does not have a credible GOP challenger.
IL- Solid Blue State- Obama will be out there campaigning for whoever the Democratic nominee is(Alexi Giannoulias)
NV- Reid does not have a credible GOP challenger. NVGOP is in shambles.
PA- Can Toomey exceed Santorum's performance.
NY- whoever wins the Democratic primary(Gillibrand or Maloney)will be favored to win in the General Election.
ND- Hoevan vs Dorgan matchup will be like Weld/Kerry Senate Race between popular Governor and popular incumbent Senator.
HI- Doubtful Linda Lingle will challenge Inouye.
AR(Lincoln),CA(Boxer),WA(Murray)and WI(Feingold)are unlikely to face top tier GOP Opposition.
The rest of the Democratic US Senators facing re-election are safe.
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Bunning just packed it in. Both good and bad for KY Dems. If there is a problem with Greyson's campaign, though, he won't now have a primary to expose it so Mongiardo or whomever could do so. I'd run the Lt Gov against the open seat and save the AG for running against McConnell in 2014, if I were in charge. Bredesen can replace Mongiardo with Bruce Lunsford for now who could then run for Gov in 2015.
In OH and KY. The Democratic Candidates are ambitious Statewide Elected Officials.
OH- Lee Fisher(Lt Governor) and Jennifer Brunner(Secretary of State).
KY- Dan Mongiardo(Lt Governor) and Jack Conway(Attorney General).
In OH- if either Fisher or Brunner loses in the primary . Both of their political careers are over.
In KY. If Mongiardo loses in the primary- He is likely to run for Governor in 2015. If Conway loses in the primary- He is likely to run for Governor in 2015. I think Ben Chandler should have ran for the US Senate in 2008 against Mitch McConnell. It would have been like Sherrod Brown running for the US Senate in 2006 against Mike DeWIne.
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Is there indications, recent polling that would indicate perhaps that Grassley would be seen not so much as a surefire reelect the next time around. He does sound like a stubborn wacko to me at the moment. Does that resound in the public opinion of the Midwest State that voted Obama in with a comfy majority?
Please tell me when Grassley has not sounded like a wacko? He's from Iowa for goodness sakes
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Hello, everybody. I am a new hand to be here. So nice to meet you all. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . .
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