With two competitive governors races on tap this fall, and a slate of key, open-seat contests just around the corner in 2010, the Republican Governors Association finds itself in an unusual position: Holding a minority of governorships, but looked to by Republicans around the country as the place where the GOP can start a comeback. (The RGA's homepage uses theGOPcombeback.com as its address, where you can hear RGA chairman Haley Barbour talk about how it was Republican governors back in the early 1990s who pulled the GOP off the mat after Bill Clinton's 1992 victory.)
RGA executive director Nick Ayers was kind enough to chat with fivethirtyeight.com about what's in the works. Though playing it close to the vest on specific targets, and heeling the party line on questions about Sarah Palin and Bobby Jindal, Ayers has some not-to-be-missed, choice comments about the Virginia governor's race--especially the recently completed battle for the Democratic nomination. (Make sure you read what he says about Terry McAuliffe's failed bid....very ouch.)
Fivethirtyeight: First, please give our readers a bit of biographical background on yourself and how you came to be executive director of the Republican Governors Association.
Nick Ayers: I began my political career in Georgia during college by working for Sonny Perdue’s campaign against incumbent Roy Barnes. Governor Perdue upset Barnes to become the first Republican governor in the state since Reconstruction. I was Governor Perdue’s top political advisor during his first term and then managed his re-election campaign. Governor Perdue won 130 of 159 counties with 58 percent of the vote, defeating his opponent by nearly 20 points.
After the election, Governor Perdue was voted chairman of the Republican Governors Association and he asked me to serve as the executive director. At the RGA, we put together a four-year plan that would not only allow us to compete on a yearly basis but would also ensure we have the resources needed for 2010, when there will be 37 governors’ race. Part of that plan was to keep the same core political team in place.
538: There are two governors races this fall, and current polling indicates that both Republican candidates will be competitive. Let's start in the bluer of the two states, New Jersey. Can you talk about Chris Christie's chances and what it will take for him to win?
Ayers: In elections where a governor is seeking reelection, the races usually come down to one thing: the incumbent’s record. Jon Corzine’s record is the opposite of what he campaigned on in 2005. The number one issue in New Jersey is taxes, especially property taxes. But despite his previous campaign promises, Corzine raised the sales tax in his first budget and then hiked taxes by another $1 billion this year. Corzine knows there is nothing he can say or do to defend his record which is why he has already started attacking Chris Christie. As an incumbent, that’s not a position you want to be in.
538: Turning to Virginia, a state often cited as turning away from Republicans, the Democrats are trying to win the governors race for a third time in a row. How would you rate Bob McDonnell's candidacy thus far, and what will it take for him to prevent Craigh Deeds and the Democrats from posting a third consecutive win?
Ayers: This race is a rematch of the 2005 Attorney General’s race which McDonnell won by 323 votes so it’s no surprise that it’s been a tight race since the Democratic primary. The Democrats have already spent over $3 million trying to tear down McDonnell’s favorability rating and it’s been largely ineffective because of the quality campaign that McDonnell has run. As Virginia voters learn more about the two candidates, I think more and more will break towards McDonnell. McDonnell is fighting to keep Virginia’s right to work laws and keep Virginia business friendly. Creigh Deeds is a tax-and-spender who stands with Big Labor.
538: On a related note, were you surprised that Deeds won Virginia's Democratic primary over two candidates with bigger names and deeper pockets?
Ayers: Terry McAuliffe unquestionably hurt Brian Moran, who never seemed to put together a plan for how he could win. In regards to McAuliffe, while campaign money may be the mother’s milk of politics, it still can’t make an ugly baby pretty. The more voters saw of McAuliffe the less they liked him. That said, Deeds ran a great campaign.
538: A Minnesota blogger reported this week that some organization is apparently polling Minnesotans on the subject of a possible Norm Coleman run for governor. Would you care to comment on a possible Coleman bid for governor?
Ayers: What the PPP poll showed is that this will be a competitive race no matter who the candidates are, but it’s too early to speculate on who will be running on the Republican side.
538: Looking ahead to 2010, which open-seat states are the major RGA targets for possible pickups?
Ayers: All of them: Maine, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Michigan, Oklahoma, Kansas, Wyoming, New Mexico and Oregon.
538: Again for 2010, how about Democratic incumbents. Are there any you think are vulnerable enough to defeat?
Ayers: We don’t like to broadcast our strategy, but there are at least 7 incumbents who are vulnerable.
538: I have to ask about Sarah Palin. First, did the RGA have any advanced warning of her recent announcement that she would resign the governorship, and if not, were you surprised by her decision?
Ayers: We were informed about her decision to step down just before she announced it. I don’t think too many people were predicting it.
538: Although a rising star in the party, Bobby Jindals nationally-televised response to the presidents address earlier this year was widely panned, including by many conservative commentators. How much, if at all, do you think Jindal's rise as a national figure was set back by that speech?
Ayers: Over the long term, not at all. Governor Jindal is one of the brightest minds in our Party and has unlimited potential.
538: Having former Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour as RGA chair must be a huge networking and fundraising asset. What are your thoughts on a potential presidential bid by Gov. Barbour?
Ayers: Gov. Barbour has repeatedly said that the only thing that matters is the 39 governors’ races that will take place between now and the end of 2010. That’s what all of us are focused on right now.
7.13.2009
RGA Chief Had No Warning of Palin's Resignation
@ 12:14 PM
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Republican GOVERNORS pal around with AYERS!!
Oh wait, wrong guy...
Wow, Mr. Schaller. Regardless of intent, that was nothing but a 538-endorsed campaign ad for the RGA. Next time, might I suggest asking questions that aren't open-ended and then following up on non-responses?
Ayers just tapdanced his way through this whole thing.
None of these answers seem especially insightful or original. They don't seem like terrible answers, either. Just not much meat to them.
Much as I hate to lay into a 538 correspondent, I did feel like young Mr Ayers was given a collection of ineffectual softballs to hit there. That might be the rules that the RGA set up or the nature of the interview, but I am not really convinced Ayers said much of any note really.
I do think that the elections in 2010 will be focussed very much on national factors, and as such 2010 could be a good year if the economy has not shown signs of improving. But I would seriously be surprised if 7 Democratic governors were unseated next year.
It's going to be a tough haul for Democratic governors this year, the outlook is not optimistic. I am kind of shocked with the lack of mention here of which governors he think can be challenged, that's not strategy, that's just given honest info. mass will most likely be the most surprising.
Mr. Schaller, please either resign from fivethirtyeight or work harder on the content you post. This interview, unfortunately, reflects the same apparent lack of effort as almost of all of your posts. You seem to be treating this site as a lark...just as you don't seem to even try to make your analysis rigorous or thoughtful, you don't even seem to try to make this interview challenging or interesting. Your attitude is demeaning to the readers of this site and is damaging your reputation.
That is one slimy looking dude.
538 readers:
let me just clarify a few things about this new series of interviews i'm doing.
1. i'm asking people to agree to 10 questions. these are not going to be long interviews, although some interviewees will surely give longer replies than others. ayers played it very tight, but that's his job.
2. i'm *not* trying to be provocative or play gotcha in these interviews--i'm just trying to get the voices of people who analyze or work or consult in the world of campaigns and elections into 538. and i'll approach them the same way whether they're party people as consultants as analysts, and no matter where on the ideological/partisan divides they sit.
3. in this particular case, do i wish ayers had given up more? of course. but in some ways jobs like his are designed not to make headlines, and often you cannot even get people in a position like his to talk at all, because they're not supposed to be out front and making news. i knew a party functionary who told me she always scripted out a few graphs for reporters every time they called about a topic and just repeated that prepared statement no matter what they asked or how they asked it....until they stopped asking at all--which is exactly what she wanted.
4. but i take the critics' points--i'll try to avoid questions (say the jindal one) where they're just not going to give an inch in favor of topics where interviewees may be more forthcoming. i just think it was worth a shot to see if he might give a surprising answer on jindal, palin or barbour.
Much less to chew over than the last interview with a campaign strategist that Mr. Schaller did, which is due more to Ayers than the interviewer. Ayers is obviously a more partisan type than the feller that gave the last interview.
Interestingly, both were Republicans - are they more willing to be interviewed, or are they better organised?
I think if your post had just said, "Republican official says Republicans are awesome," I would've walked away with just about the same level of information.
I don't really mean any offense by that, but the whole thing just read like boilerplate GOP PR drivel.
Wow. The July Senate Rankings are posted and you guys are STILL this cranky? Lighten up.
WV: hendo, as in "These commenters flap and squawk like a hendo."
Great interview. Thank you for posting, Mr. Schaller.
If Ayers was Perdue's top political advisor, why didn't you ask him if he was the guy he came up with the idea of, "Let's base this whole campaign on a lie that we'll give Georgians the chance to restore the Confederate Battle Flag to the State flag."?
Yeah, I can't really fault Schaller for not grilling Ayers. It'd be nice, but I'm happier if FiveThirtyEight just asks fair questions. He asked a couple softballs, and everything that wasn't a softball Ayers dodged -- which is fine, because everyone reading this can see as plain as day. The take-away from this interview is that the RGA isn't ready for primetime.
Ayers may not have known in advance that Palin was going to resign, but he can't have been too surprised. Back in March, according to the Salt Lake Tribune, he actually went to Alaska to give her the following earth-shattering political advice:
"Make a long-term schedule and stick to it, have staff members set aside ample and inviolable family time to replenish your spirits, and build a coherent home-state agenda that creates jobs and ensures re-election."
http://www.sltrib.com/ci_12826215
You know, saying that Purdue was the first Republican governor in Georgia since reconstruction doesn't really mean much since the Republicans are now dominated by the political ideology of the former Southern Democrats. Since the early '60s the parties have flip-flopped on most of their core issues. I'd like to see just how far a Republican like Ingersoll or even Goldwater would last in today's Republican Party. A week? Maybe two?
Governor Jindal is one of the brightest minds in our Party and has unlimited potential.
So basically, he is saying that the republicans have no one that is intelligent?
Or does he actually believe that Jindal has a "bright mind"?
i'm *not* trying to be provocative or play gotcha in these interviews--
What you are doing is giving them a free forum to spew talking points. By not having follow up questions and pressing the point that is all you will ever get.
Why waste your time on this garbage. I have to agree with the others, yet another low quality post.
I don’t fault Tom Schaller for this post. I agree completely with his aims for the interview—gotchas are pretty meaningless, especially when the purpose is to try and tease out some information about what course the Republican Party is setting regarding upcoming elections. I have to admit Ayres was pretty good about not revealing any secrets. He still managed to come across as something of a barracuda, although one who has been schooled in some of the social graces.
My interpretation? The GOP will be running on the supposition that by 2010 Obama will have “failed”, and if he hasn’t failed, they will still hammer at that theme again and again and again. As a particularly notorious figure from the past wrote—
“But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.” —Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf
I think it is pretty difficult to get campaign professionals to say anything interesting. I give Schaller credit for trying though. Sometimes you can attempt to read between the lines. It is sort of like listenting to the chair of the Federal Reserve. He won't really tell you anything so analysts look for gestures and random body langueage ,like removing glasses or wiping forehead. So maybe a video interview would work better.
I like the image at the top left of http://thegopcomeback.com... ;)
When an 'interview' provides no insight, and serves only as a press release from the person being interviewed, you spike the story and move on.
When the person realizes that they just lost their soapbox, they might actually schedule a true interview session and decide to answer questions they normally would have avoided.
And if not, then 538 avoids appearing like a collection of complete douchenozzles way out of their depth.
This interview elucidated absolutely nothing. I know Ayers' job is to be a cheerleader, but Schaller could have at least attempted to get him to say something that wasn't 100% pure vanilla.
I know Schaller just wants to let people talk, but it can't purely be boilerplate. Give us something we won't find anywhere else, or don't bother.
PS. Could he look like more of a d-bag? I don't think it's possible. This is why Republicans are struggling in today's America.
@kermitfog:
Wow. The July Senate Rankings are posted and you guys are STILL this cranky? Lighten up.
I think the critics should rise up and demand their money back.
@Pragmatus: ""My interpretation? The GOP will be running on the supposition that by 2010 Obama will have “failed”, and if he hasn’t failed, they will still hammer at that theme again and again and again. As a particularly notorious figure from the past wrote—
“But the most brilliant propagandist technique will yield no success unless one fundamental principle is borne in mind constantly and with unflagging attention. It must confine itself to a few points and repeat them over and over. Here, as so often in this world, persistence is the first and most important requirement for success.” —Adolf Hitler, Mein Kampf.""
Can't disagree--thinking of the 2008 Presidential election, what I remember from Obama is three things: "Yes, we can", "Change" and "McCain = Bush". Last one from surrogates, of course. Can't think of one thing from McCain that was nearly as consistent and clear. I view that as a fault of McCain, not an attack on Obama. "It's the economy, stupid" will probably make a comeback in the next election cycle or two.
Lauds Deeds?
He called him a big Government tax-and-spender. I guess in Richmond the belief that taxes have the right to exist in modern government is pretty radical, but I've seen Creigh at work for years and he looks like a moderate to me.
538 readers:
a couple of spare bits of info about how i'm conducting this interview series, so you know what's what, and a few other thoughts about this one with Ayers.
let's work backwards: keep in mind that if you're ayers, and i request an interview with you, the first thing you're gonna do (and he *did* do) is pull your PR person in. in about two minutes using The Google on the Internet Machine (to borrow a line from Chazz Michael-Michaels) that PR guy is going to find out that i'm a pro-choice, pro-Labor, pro-gay rights liberal democrat and college professor who writes a reliably liberal column for the baltimore sun. oh, and to top it off, i wrote a book saying the democrats ought to stop worrying about the south, and that southern conservatism is largely responsible for much of what went wrong this decade. so if you're sonny perdue and haley barbour's protege, you're not exactly thinking, "hey, let's have a no-holds-barred exchange with *this* guy!" frankly, i'm surprised ayers even agreed to do it. my first interview of this series, by contrast, was with ken strasma, obama's targeting guy, whom i've known for five years. it was much easier for ken to agree to the interview, for those reasons, and to be more revealing....though there were some things even ken would not talk about, for propriety or other reasons.
second, i also took the time to email ayers and his deputy the link to the earlier interview with fellow GOP operative Guy Harrison, which as one commenter noted, was much more informative and useful to 538 readers. i did this on purpose, to let Ayers know i would shoot straight and also to encourage him to respond in kind.
finally, i promised i would publish the interview in full and unedited....so my choices were to print it as is or go back on my word. that's not a great choice, because real estate on 538 is precious, and rightly so. still, even though ayers played it close to the vest, i have no doubt i needed to honor my end of the bargain. if readers feel he shortchanged me/us, they should express than opinion, and many of you have. and you can of course take your whacks at me.
look, do i wish ayers has been more forthright? absolutely. should i perhaps just not bother with party operatives, or those from GOP or center-right? maybe. but then the set of interviews would be lopsided and i don't want them to be that way. i want to hear what the conservatives and republicans are doing, and sometimes that may produce small yields, but i will try to hit as many topics as possible and hope that, over time, they will trust me and 538 enough to reveal as much as they can, within limits.
anyway, i will keep checking comments because i take your criticisms seriously, and I will endeavour to always improve the content. just be nice....i don't stand over your shoulder all day at your job, reminding you that you forgot to bring the ketchup to table 4, or your algorithms from the last project were screwed up, or your TPS reports are late again. and before you start howling, keep in mind that you may not know all the background behind the post.
Shane…
The McCain tape-loops were—
♦ “Obama pals around with terrorists”
♦ “Obama has never come clean about his relationship with Rev. Wright”
♦ “First thing in office Obama will raise your taxes”
I don’t think any of these were particularly effective, except amongst those who were already categorically opposed to Obama. The politics that came from “It’s the economy, stupid” resonated with people across the spectrum.
People realise this isn't an investigative journalism site, right? Of course, if you believe Republicans are Nazis, like our friend above, I suppose doing any interview with a Republican is like publishing an excerpt from the Voelkischer Beobachter.
Prof. Schaller - shouldn't you be writing a thesis or something? Publish or perish?
Please stop practicing lazy journalism here.
Another waste of electrons, and not only am I out 5 minutes, but I am dumber than I was 5 minutes ago.
Nate - please fire this bozo!
Shane, the point about having a simple, consistent message isn't particularly Hitlerian. Hitler used it, but so have many other politicians, lawyers, advertisers, and PR people. In recent American elections, examples include Bush Sr.'s attacks on Dukakis for being a wimp, Clinton's "It's the economy, stupid" slogan, Bush Jr.'s promise to cut taxes, and Obama's themes of hope and change. Barring a few libertarians, you just won't find anyone who'll compare more than two of the above to Hitler.
STepper, I hope you know that Tom Schaller is an Associate Professor, which means he (probably) has tenure. And I hope you know that "Publish or perish" is a phrase used for postdocs and assistant professors, rather than for people who have yet to write their theses.
Tom, since you wrote a book that said that the Dems ought to quit worrying about the South and that southern conservatism is largely what went wrong with this decade, why did you give Ayers a free pass on his comment that he campaigned for Purdue and him becoming the first Republican governor since reconstruction? By letting that comment slide you allowed Ayers to make it seem that the GOP was still the party of Lincoln when that hasn't been true for the last 45 years. And this was in his very first two sentences! Either:
A) Ayers genuinely does not know that the GOP has radically changed its political positions since reconstruction, thus making him incompetent.
B) Ayers knows full well that the GOP has radically changed its political positions since reconstruction but is still trying to market itself as the Party of Lincoln in an attempt to maximize national appeal even though it now opposes everything he stood for and has completely adopted the politics of the former Southern Democrats, thus making him fraudulent.
I think B is most likely true. You let him score a major point on you in the very first exchange and by doing so let him know that he was going to dominate the interview from the very beginning, which he did. You let him know that since he could lie about something that basic without a followup that gave him carte blanche to lie and obfuscate about subjects more complex.
@ Pragmatus: "The McCain tape-loops were—
♦ “Obama pals around with terrorists”
♦ “Obama has never come clean about his relationship with Rev. Wright”
♦ “First thing in office Obama will raise your taxes”
I don’t think any of these were particularly effective..."
Point taken--though I honestly think that those loops were more from surrogates, rather than from McCain himself. As I said previously, that's an indictment of McCain (and his staff) for not having a short, clear message. Even if the stuff above was directly from McCain, it's either laughably bad or too nuanced (or in the case of Wright, people could easily be indifferent).
Lord Calvert, I don't think the reference was as pernicious as you portray it. It's factually true that Perdue was the first Republican Governor of Georgia since Reconstruction. Ayers could say something like "First Republican since the fall of the Southern Democratic Party," but that would falsely imply the Republican Party did win some races in the pre-civil rights era.
Lord Calvert…
While I applaud your thinking and logic, Schaller didn’t conduct a debate with Ayers—it was an interview. One scores points in a debate; an interviewer should be, at least in my book, as objective as possible, otherwise the exercise strays into something else.
That this report wasn’t as successful as it could have been was the result of Ayers’s talent for throwing any meaningful discussion off the track.
You have to serve up the softballs in hopes that some new tidbit will surface. Ayers comments were what I would have expected from a professional political operative. Answer the questions in a manner that does not make you look stupid and does no damage to the party.
Ayers has to keep his professional options open, there will be some Republican candidates who may hire him for their campaign and there is no incentive for him to speak candidly about anything.
I probably would have answered the Palin issue differently. Not surprised that she was not going to seek a second term but deciding not to finish her term, an unconventional move. (political speak for saying WTF)
Alon, Ayers made it appear that what has changed is the dominant politics of the voters in the south when what has actually changed is the politics of the political parties in the south. Ideologically, Perdue as well as the core leadership in the Republican Party, are the Southern Democrats.
Yes, while it is factually true that Perdue was the first Republican governor since reconstruction, politically nothing really changed except the label. It would be like Pepsi switching from a blue can to a red one and people thinking they're buying something different. The core values and the leadership of today's Republican Party are those of the Dixiecrats, the very people and ideologies the Republican Party was expressly formed to oppose.
One benefit of Mr. Schaller interviewing Ayers is that it takes some time out of Ayers schedule that he might have spent doing an interview with Faux News, the (Moonie-owned) Washington Times, Lush Rimbaugh, etc.
And because he was given softball questions, it might take him just slightly off his game when someone asks him a hardball question - he might just let slip something that the RGA doesn't want to be let out.
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Down here in Georgia we know Nick Ayers too well. After Sonny Perdue's re-election in 2006, Nick got a DUI in Atlanta that capped off a string of continuous run-ins with the law since his high school days. So Perdue, capitalizing on his position as Chair of the GOP Governors Association, sent Nick packing to Washington in hopes he would get treatment for his alcohol problems and make a fresh start and get him out of Perdue's hair. So Nick appears perfectly qualified to represent the GOP on a national level.
I think it's great that 538 is getting the recognition it deserves. I don't think raking republicans over the coals would do any good.
"standard republican boilerplate"
It's all they have.
"Creigh Deeds is a tax-and-spender who stands with Big Labor."
A completely inaccurate description of Deeds. Then again, I can't say I'm shocked to hear him critiqued that way by the RGA Executive Director.
Naturally, while you could go with Ayers description of McDonnell as someone who "is fighting to keep Virginia’s right to work laws and keep Virginia business friendly," that would conveniently ignore the fact that McDonnell is an idealogue of the Pat Robertson persuasion who wants to enact a right-wing social agenda while doing nothing for Virginia's failing infrastructure because he, like his comrades in the General Assembly, won't find ways to raise new revenue.
It was very informative to see Ayers' responses to these questions. The open-ended questions gave him the opportunity to say whatever was on his mind. The fact that he only gave empty talking points revealed his empty philosophy. Allowing someone like Ayers to reveal his own shallowness is a valuable service. Thank you for an excellent interview.
Let the 538 readers submit the questions for your next interview and let us vote on the top ten ones next time.
Here's one I woulda asked.
Considering the Hispanic vote is the quickest growing vote and they went for Obama 2 to 1, are you planning on using abortion as a wedge issue to gain their votes rather than running on ideas and solutions to 21st century problems which is something Republicans have avoided for the last couple decades since they are out of ideas?
Geoff, we heard the same thing here about Jack Davis from the Tom Reynolds campaign. Davis was a Goldwater-conservative and business owner who left the GOP for the Dems after a GOP fundraiser in Buffalo where Cheney refused to answer questions about the GOP's economic policies on free trade and economic partnership with the Chinese Communist Party. Reynolds actively called Davis a "tax and spend liberal" when he knew the exact opposite was true and that that epithet was more appropriate to his own policies.
The GOP has to call the Dems the "tax and spenders" constantly because if they let up for even a second the public might finally figure out that the tax and spenders are actually the Republicans.
jindal is not an american citizen he was born in india. both his parents were indian citizens and wanted to return home for his birth.
it wasnt till years later they became american citizens.
that is one of the reason jindal refuses to produces his birth certificate. that is going to be a real problem for the republicans.
I would be in favor of not interviewing party operatives at all. Their statements are extremely predictable and unenlightening, and we already hear far too much from them in the mainstream media.
While not, perhaps, the most illuminating of interviews, I think the questions were reasonable, particularly taking into consideration that he presumably wants other Republicans to agree to interviews with him in the future.
Jean said...
Down here in Georgia we know Nick Ayers too well. . . .
So Jean, are you saying that Ayers is an example of a slightly distorted and perverted version of the "Peter Principle"? VBG
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Ayers: Over the long term, not at all. Governor Jindal is one of the brightest minds in our Party and has unlimited potential.
Isn't that kind of like being the least bad smelling fart?
Tom,
Thank you for your contributions. Illegitimi non carborundum!
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