It's by sheer coincidence that we'd happened to have a Sarah Palin item running earlier this afternoon at the time she announced that she was leaving Alaska's governorship. I've been on a plane for the past six hours (the flight that I was supposed to take last night got cancelled). Fortunately, it was JetBlue, so I was able to watch a lot of TV.
There seem to be three* basic theories to explain why Sarah Palin decided to quit:
1. She's simply burned out;
2. There's some kind of "other shoe dropping";
3. She's so crazy she thinks this could actually help her for 2012, 2016, etc.
The point I'd add is that I don't think these three things are mutually exclusive. In her press conference today, Palin didn't seem sure of much of anything except that she'll no longer be governor. She may have felt like being governor of Alaska had become a waste of her time when she can go about the country being a celebrity instead; she might have concerns for what the national media spotlight has done to her family; she might be worried that she's made too many enemies in the state and that sooner or later one of these mini-scandals will blow up into a bigger one ... AND she may be crazy and narcissistic enough to think this will actually help her chances for 2012.
It won't, of course. Politicians have survived and been re-elected after being stigmatized as liars, hypocrites, and flip-floppers -- but can someone who may forever be branded as a "quitter" become Commander in Chief? There's almost no way. I can't think of someone who has done something comparable to what Palin did today running for national office, let alone winning it. In her critics' imaginations, she's gone from being Dan Quayle to some permutation of Thomas Eagleton.
And today will make her critics more numerous. One gets the sense that the Republican establishment was already starting to have concerns about Palin's electability -- see particularly Charles Krauthammer's recent comments. If Palin really is still in the running for 2012, today's actions may turn those concerns into action items -- like trying to build an "inevitability" narrative around Mitt Romney, or perhaps recruiting another populist conservative into the race to split Palin's vote and ensure that she can't win on some sort of plurality basis. I happen to think that these electability concerns are wise ones, and in the long run Palin may have done the GOP a big favor. In the short run, though, it's going to be a long weekend for them in more ways than one.
___
* A fourth theory, I guess, is that she's running for Senate, but that doesn't make any sense at all. Why would she need to leave office to do that? And could she really beat Lisa Murkowski? My guess is that, after today, Palin would not only lose the primary to Murkowski but might do so by an embarrassing margin.
7.03.2009
Explainin' Palin: All of The Above?
@ 9:10 PM
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Theory five: She's going to cash in. Raising such a large family is expensive. And Rupert Murdoch has made her an offer she can't refuse. Please all the speakin engagements. You betcha *wink*
I'm still leaning towards theory 5, but there's growing traction for 'Housegate' scandal.
I'm a little worried that the right parallel might be Nixons pouty checkers speach.
the box ad displayed to the right of this post is for Support Sarah PAC, Palin's political action committee. I have never seen an add for that PAC on the web before. Any change it's there because of a massive internet advertising buy coinciding with the resignation? That would be strong evidence of the 2012 hypothesis.
Nixon's the best parallel I can think of. Not the Checkers speach, but his defiant "You won't have Dick Nixon to kick around any more" which he spat to the media after his 1962 defeat for Governor of California.
Hmmm...
I suspect it's a combo of the "cash in" theory described in the first comment and Nate's third reason. She'll cash in with a show (on FOX News or AM radio) and she also believes that doing so will give her a better platform for 2012.
The second part of that is delusional...a radio or TV show will give her more notoriety and a larger platform but that stage will also make her more polarizing, if that's possible. It'll certainly sink her chances of ever winning a general election though it would set up a very interesting Republican primary season.
See, the thing is, theory 5 makes sense for the decision to not run for re-election (as, really, do all of the theories); it's the resigning that makes no sense at all with most of them.
Why would she make more money by resigning? Unless she seriously believes she's going to screw things up so much in the next year that she wouldn't be able to make money on the conservative talk show circuit (and I have a hard time believing she is actually capable of that level of introspection), it makes no sense to not just ride out the next couple years, then use a 'family / national stage' excuse to not run for re-election.
Maybe she read your article from a couple months ago (http://www.fivethirtyeight.com/2009/05/it-aint-easy-being-governor.html) and took it a little too literally?
@Nick
That "Support Sarah PAC" ad has been there a long time on this site. It seems odd now in light of this resignation.
I hope clicking on the SARAHPAC ad on the left side giving 538 some funding! (just did so...)
What a funny coincidence :-)
Her biggest weakness was her experience. Now she is making it more so. She shot a hole right through her resume.
I personally thought her overreactions to Letterman and the Photoshopped baby photo were a little creepy, in a amateur hour kind of way.
Not that many months ago Sarah Palin was the Ice Queen coming to the lower 48 to save America from the Commie-Pinko hordes.
Then – then – she started talking – the Ice melted, the Queen’s crown became a Dunces Cap and now – even in her Ice Castle of Alaska – her gig has given up its last gasp.
Failed student, failed Governor, failed mother, failed VP candidate – what to do? Why not try for President – everyone likes a good Vaudeville routine – like they say – there’s one born every minute.
yeah, Nixon's "Last Press Conference" is the apt comparison. Wikipedia: "Nixon famously blamed the media for favoring his opponent, saying, "You won't have Nixon to kick around anymore because, gentlemen, this is my last press conference." The California defeat was highlighted in the November 11, 1962, episode of ABC's Howard K. Smith: News and Comment entitled "The Political Obituary of Richard M. Nixon."
But even then, Nixon had already been Vice President for eight years.
I think people are looking at this the wrong way. I'm far from a Palin supporter, but this move makes perfect sense given her unique circumstances.
To my knowledge, no governor of Alaska or Hawaii who isn't independently wealthy has attempted to run for president. She can't just jet back and forth from the governor's mansion to Iowa and New Hampshire and to NYC for interviews and around the Lower 48 for fundraisers. It would be way too expensive, plus she has to juggle her family at the same time. Male governors from the Lower 48 with older kids don't have to deal with those concerns when considering a run.
In order to run for 2012, she has to make this move. Spending another 18 months as governor would be wasting time and money if the 2012 primaries are her objective. Plus, she took a shot at Tim Pawlenty indirectly calling him a lame duck governor.
Ross Perot ran for national office and quit and then came back into the race. Of course, he still lost.
William raises the valid counterpoint, you can't live in Alaska and campaign in the lower 48. But I'm surprised all the same that she's resigning so soon. Couldn't she have finished this term?
It's been an amazingly lucky few weeks for Romney - first Ensign, then Sanford, now Palin. If something happens to Pawlenty to take him out of the running, the media ought to investigate whether Romney has any wizards on the payroll.
@William: I don't know if this is necessarily that true - wasn't the whole purpose of her SarahPAC to raise money for her to travel? Also, I imagine she is a goldmine for far right wing conservatives, in terms of potential cash raised.
Plus, while she may be calling Pawlenty a lame duck, she is going to be tagged as the "Quitter '12" candidate. I think this is going to be the big hit that won't go away -- she's walking out on all the experience she had that would qualify her for national experience. Two years as governor of a state you walked out on doesn't smell so rosy.
""Nixon's the best parallel I can think of. Not the Checkers speach, but his defiant "You won't have Dick Nixon to kick around any more" which he spat to the media after his 1962 defeat for Governor of California.""
Exactly my thought too...and that was eight years before he won the presidency.
So Nate's "no way" to the political future of quitters might be premature.
We'll see whether the "drop out and run for national office" thing works at all when (and if) Willie Herenton runs against Steve Cohen for the Tennessee 9th Congressional District in 2010. He announced his resignation (as mayor of Memphis) a week ago.
Yeah, the puzzling thing is that she didn't finish her term. Last I checked it's still 2009. She couldn't stay in office for another year or two or however much time she has left? Now she'll be branding a quitter, and, personally, I don't think much will/would be gained by starting her campaign this early. Everyone knows who she is, it's not like she needs to try and get her face in the news more so people will recognize her face/name.
Nate,
Are you going to make the monthly senate rankings this month? Or this summer? I think it might be a good idea. Also, I don't understand how you think Ohio has a less of a chance of switching parties than Connecticut. I mean I get that Dodd is unpopular and stuff. But, his race his more like no one knows if he will get out of it...like a 50% chance of losing or winning; a tossup. But Ohio is a extremly slightly liberal state (just slightly) and the dems have to great candidates that seem to be better than the Portman guy. So I would assume that they would win...............
Mark,
If there were an optimum time to make this announcement and still preserve some public approval, it would be the Friday before Independence day as Friday/Saturday news cycles are slow anyway, and so many people have the day off today and are busy with 4th of July plans.
Palin may have stepped down now instead of later (or simply not sought another term) to give Lt. Governor Sean Parnell a leg up on winning a full term as governor.
Freeing herself from the governor's office now instead of in January of 2011 doesn't really benefit her much because 2011 would still give her plenty of time go out there and campaign for 2012.
She is stepping down now instead of later for some monetary benefit or because there is some scandal out there waiting to be uncovered which will humiliate her. Don't you think Governor Spitzer would have resigned earlier if he knew what was going to blow up in his face in March, 2008?
"Why would she make more money by resigning? Unless she seriously believes she's going to screw things up so much in the next year that she wouldn't be able to make money on the conservative talk show circuit (and I have a hard time believing she is actually capable of that level of introspection), it makes no sense to not just ride out the next couple years, then use a 'family / national stage' excuse to not run for re-election."
I think this was talked about either here or somewhere, but is there a rule that she can't make money off a book deal until she is out of office for so long? I think while she's in office, most of the money goes back to the state (at least this is what I remember reading). So maybe someone did make her an offer for something like a book she couldn't refuse? And so maybe here cockamamie plan is to resign, write book, make money, run for president?
My guess is being governor got boring. It was fun and interesting for a while, and got her some media attention, but running for national office gets you the big time stardom. It doesn't matter whether you win or lose, it only matters that everyone's constantly talking about you.
All this speculation is nice but there is only one salient fact:
If Sarah Palin were to ever become POTUS, then well...I do not even want to speculate on the absurdity and implications...at that point collectively we would need to really assess our sanity, the validity of American liberal democracy, our ability to govern ourselves etc.
She's resigning because an indictment is expected to drop soon either for "housegate" or possibly "dairygate." If it's for "housegate," then I hope the feds are also looking into "dairygate" too. I also expect the IRS to bust her on her taxes in the near future.
One other reason:
With the price of crude so high last year, a LOT of money flowed into the Alaska fund that collects royalties on the oil and gas industry in the state. Even so, Palin had a very difficult time getting a lot of that money to the people without consideration of also taxing the citizens of the state to balance the state budget.
With crude oil and gas prices a LOT lower this year than last, and with the general state of the economy (national and within the state itself), the next state budget is going to be a difficult fight in the legislature, and whoever is governor will take a LOT of heat. I suspect that there will be a lot of discussion of instituting several taxes that are not now levied in Alaska.
Palin doesn't want to go through that type of fight, which will lower her (already lowered) favorables in the state a lot, if not cause them to dip into the negatives.
Wouldn't be good for the resume, don'tcha think? Wink! Wink!
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Nate left out medical reasons.
Regarding the IRS busting Palin:
If she is going to be busted for something, I really hope it is by the state authorities, because I really don't want to read/hear the psychos come out of the wordwork about Obama taking revenge on poor little Sarah because he was afraid to face her in 2012. (Or she was going to expose he is a foreign-born, terrorist-palling socialist, whatever). Sometimes the kooks depress me. How can people the same species as me be that stupid and crazy.
When did Republicans become so weird? I don't remember them being like this when I was growing up in the eighties. I think they jumped the shark during the Clinton years when they couldn't get him out of office no matter how hard they tried. Maybe it was the rise of Rush?
(Sorry for the mental meandering.)
If this was a calculated political move to set her up for a 2012 presidential bid, then it was handled very poorly.
A Friday night news dump? That horribly disjointed speech? No clear announcement of her intention to run? None of it makes any sense in the context of aspirations for 2012. This move has a whiff of desperation around it, and it's perplexing.
If this is part of some larger political ploy, then it was handles with all of the grace of a drunk bull in a china shop. Her advisers should be fired.
I'm beginning to favor Housegate, but Dairygate might be a possibility.
For our lawyers: By getting out ahead of an indictment, does that free up what she can raise in the way of a legal defense fund as she's no longer a sitting Governor? Can she use SarahPAC, (probably not), or Alaska Fund Trust monies freely?
But Nixon didn't quit a national office to which he had already been elected - he claimed he was quitting politics in general after being defeated in an election. Then 8 years later he came back and went for the presidency - after TONS of experience at many levels of government. So I don't think the Checkers speech comparison is actually apt at all. When has anyone ever resigned from office (for no apparent reason that anyone can agree to or seems satisfied with) and then a mere 2.5 years later run for a different office and won, let alone the *presidency*?
The Nixon parallel some have suggested really doesn't work. In 1962, Nixon very petulantly announced that he was leaving politics after losing the CA governor's race. He did NOT suddenly quit an office to which he had already been elected. Thus, when he jumped back in for the 1968 Presidential race, he had simply changed his mind about retiring -- he didn't have the stigma or label of a "quitter." AND, he had long and indisputable political standing, having served as a Congressman, Senator and 2 term VP.
Palin's new and self-created situation is entirely different.
Further details on the Nixon parallel--despite the 1962 disaster Nixon still had many contacts in the GOP, which he used over the next 6 years to build up favors and indebtedness, which he cannily used to propel him to the presidency. Palin has no such "in" with the GOP. I don't think any Republican outside of Alaska gives a fig about her or her ambitions.
My guess is that there is a scandal brewing, which Palin is dealling with by running away, or trying to. The next two weeks should tell.
It's going to be two and a half years until the first primary. Does anyone really remember the details from the end of 2006? This will hurt her in the short-term, long-term I really doubt that the big issue in a few years will be palin quitting on her governorship, republicans are going to have about ten thousand issues they are pissed off about to talk about.
Also: July Senate Update. Just saying.
yes, I know the comparison to Nixon's "Last Press Conference" is not exact. The point is that they were both extremely high-profile GBCW farewells to politics, heavily laden with contemptuous whining about the supposedly gravely biased media.
Blogger Pardon Ted Stevens said...
Living up here, I was certainly surprised when I received the initial press release. Palin's abilities are hard to fathom. Some here have taken to comparing her to Inspector Clouseau of Pink Panther fame. Bumbling fool always coming out on top.
Be wary of assuming her logic is so twisted it is broken.
Her vast base will only see the spin. I am leaving the Governor job because I am going to focus on only one thing. Winning the White House. Alaska will have full representation and she won't be drawing a salary for work unperformed.
While I too am waiting for the sound of the other shoe plummeting, the old Alaskan wisdom about Palin still holds true in campaigning.
Underestimate her at your own peril.
Nixon did indeed manage one of the greatest political comebacks in American presidential history, but he had also served two terms as vice president, two terms in the House, and two years in the Senate. And he was one of the smartest men ever to run for the presidency.
Sarah Palin, on the other hand, spent six years as mayor of a town of five thousand people, and has now quit after two years of a four-year gubernatorial term. And she is (to put it lightly) not in Nixon's league intellectually.
If Sarah Palin managed to lose to Barack Obama in 2012 by ten points in the popular vote, it would represent the greatest comeback story America has ever seen.
And what was with her frenzied frame of mind at that press conference? She sounded like a tweaker, rattling on so fast that she never once completed a sentence.
1. "Burned out": yet promoting SarahPac? I don't think so.
2. "Other shoe dropping": Troopergate and billing the taxpayer to live in her own home were already known about last year, and it didn't stop them from nominating her for veep. Is there something way bigger that the vetting overlooked? Unless she was the one meeting Mark Sanford in Argentina, I doubt it.
3. "Crazy": no way. Superficial and ignorant maybe, but not stupid.
4. "Running for Senate": it would have made more sense to stay on as Governor if she wanted to take on Murkowski.
5. "Cash in" literally and figuratively: bingo. I expect Palin is getting sick of watching Romney et al. trolling the lower 48at will for cash and support, and Huckabee even hosting his own frigging TV show, while she is mired in Alaska holding office during a recession, with reduced oil revenues messing up the budget. Senate might be a tempting platform that gets her into Washington with a free hand to campaign, but she'd have to fight Murkowski for months before turning her attention back to the national scene, and imagine the damage to her cause if she lost... Better to take the hit now, make some serious coin in the private sector in some "consulting" or directorship job that allows lots of time for fundraising and campaigning, and counter Romney before his organization gets too big a head start. At least that's the most likely thought process. Too bad she's too clumsy in press conferences to come up with a compelling cover story.
I think Mike in MD alluded to the most probable reason she's quitting. I have this sense that her favorability in Alaska (although I don't have any hard numbers) is slipping, and has been for at least a year. By quitting now, she can get out before her numbers as Governor fall to something too embarrassing to use as campaign fodder (e.g., "highest rated Governor in America").
the old Alaskan wisdom about Palin still holds true in campaigning.
Underestimate her at your own peril..
True. Though Alaska demographics are so skewed toward the right that even a bumbling Republican candidate still has an electoral advantage over a solid Democrat. If today's rambling stunt is an actual strategy toward presidential office, then Palin underestimates the intelligence of the country at HER own peril.
The "cash in" theory makes more sense when combined with the idea that she wants to return to private life permanently. She can charge huge speaking fees for her speeches, which I'm not sure she could have done as a sitting governor. At the very least, she wouldn't have been free to make a lot of speeches when she had a real job to do. Given a choice between being a rich private citizen or a financially insecure politician who would almost certainly lose to Obama in 2012, many of us would choose the former.
Also, I wonder how many of the commenters saw her actual resignation speech today. The most remarkable thing was just the fact of her resignation - it was that it was the speech of a person who has almost completely lost it. She was rambling, unrehearsed, and nearly incoherent. She was almost a caricature of a person completely unraveling before our eyes. How can anyone who saw that speech ever be comfortable with the idea of her answering that famous 3:00 AM phone call?
Nate, the time for the GOP to push a populist conservative was 2008, not 2012. Palin did indeed have legitimate limited-government conservative credentials and when McCain had selected her I naively assumed that it was an attempt to pull the GOP away from the religious wing of the party and back to their limited-government roots. That lasted a whole day and a half and the GOP marketing strategy to make her palatable to the totalitarian Southern religious extremists who would never have voted for Obama anyway backfired on the Republicans almost immediately and cost them the election by deliberately driving the moderates to the Dems. By focusing on her religious credentials while deliberately ignoring her small-government credentials it emphasized why the religious wing of the party has become so reviled not just by the left but also by the center and many on the right as well.
It is already too late for the Republicans to run a populist conservative. They've left for the Democrats for good and the GOP hasn't made any legitimate attempt to get them back. Any genuine populist conservative in the near future is going to have a D next to their party affiliation because the concept of a government limited in power by a constitution is simply anathema to the religious conservatives. The cross the GOP has hung around their neck is dragging them to the grave and the only supporters they're going to have left are the same ones that supported Wallace's AIP in the '68 election.
I think she's planning her campaign... for 2016. She needs to get out of the governorship before the fan gets hit with the mess of next year (she's seen what's happened to Arnold's ratings in CA).
She'll raise a bunch of money, and comment wisely about the GOP's failures in the hopeless cause of 2012.
Then, all studied up on the issues (finally!), she'll win Begich's seat in 2014, turning a blue seat red for her party. By 2014, her quitting will be long-forgotten.
Voila! Fresh, exciting candidate ready to fly to Iowa from DC for all of 2015.
I think her 15 minutes are done and gone (even Bill Bradley - who would have been a strong president - didn't get a do-over for skipping out on 1992).
Yet, this isn't a crazy terrible strategy given the cards she's holding.
I listened more to the sound of her voice, not the content of her words, which didn't make a lot of sense. This was not a happy or anticipatory speech (I'm going on to bigger things!). It was defensive (look how much I've accomplished for Alaska!) and tense, and I think I heard her voice crack a few times. I think she's clearly leaving because she has to not because she wants to. I vote for an indictment coming down or some sort of scandal.
Jen. I really enjoyed your mental meandering about Republicans being so weird.
And you're absolutely right - if it's the feds that get Palin we're going to hear the loonies go crazy with their insane conspiracy theories.
I personally like the theory that she is pregnant again....
But most likely it concerns some big shoe to drop. I really think we should have a conspiracy contest here to what it might be!! I would guess that she did something that blatantly paints her as a conservative Christian Republican hypocrite.
@bedmondson - You mean like having her underage and unmarried daughter get knocked up while staunchly promoting abstinence education? Didn't that one paint her as a conservative Christian Republican hypocrite almost immediately after McCain chose her as his running mate?
Good day for Huckabee...It would have been hard for Huck to beat Palin and Romeny. Now he's got populist/social consevatives all to himself.
www.mbadaycamp.com
Wait a minute? Huckabee? The man who tried to fix the extreme divorce rate in Arkansas by increasing the power of big-government, making it more difficult for people to get out of abusive marriages and then having his plan backfire and having his state's already high divorce rate go even higher?
There are two things Huckabee most certainly is not: a populist or a conservative. His first option has always been more government.
Holmes said to Watson: "When you have eliminated the impossible, what remains -- however improbable -- must be the truth."
My best guess here: Todd is about to be indicted for something.
To all of the commenters insisting that this is some sort of grand plot to take a senate seat or run in 2012 or 2016, why on earth was this handled so clumsily?
If this was well thought out, why the last minute press conference and the rambling speech? Why not make as graceful an exit as possible? That speech was painful, and the message out of her camp has been garbled (she's leaving politics/no she's not). And if she's trying to leave on a high note this not the way to do it. A sudden abdication in the middle of her term? All that says is "quitter".
The more I think about it, the more I'm favoring the other shoe dropping scenario. I just can't believe that Sarah Palin is that inept of a politician. Or maybe she is, in which case her political chances are slim any way you look at it.
Sarah Palin is writing a book? Really? Does it come with Crayons or do you have to buy them separately?
And on a serious note....if she's really resigning because of the pressure of the media and juggling work/family, then I guess it's a good thing she didn't get the veep job...and as I've seen that theory bandied about in a couple of articles and quotes from her "advisors" and confidantes, I wonder how she'll counter that in a presidential run? I'm sure the media scrutiny and work hours don't lessen when you step from the Alaska governorship to the Presidency.
my guess is one of two, give it a month and wait for the shoe to drop, but why not come out and be more straight with the people, odds are that she going to set up camp in the 48's and begin raising serious change and problem for mitt
pechmerle wrote:
"My best guess here: Todd is about to be indicted for something."
My best guess would be drug charges.
Financial crimes - misuse of funds, tax cheating, 'creative accounting' - do not carry the kind of stigma that would make her quit so suddenly and in such a frightened manner. They also would not hurt her with her evangelical base the way drug charges would.
Possibly her husband did something stupid and was arrested; drugs were found on him or in their vehicle. Perhaps Sarah was even with him. Or her in-laws were busted with meth, and they rolled on her husband.
Whatever it was, it was very embarrassing and there was no clear way to wiggle out of it. That leaves sex or drugs as the usual suspects.
I think the reason why is much more simpler: Being Governor was too much work.
If you look at her history, how friends, enemies, and others describe her, she is fundamentally an ambitious but lazy woman relying on others to do the heavy lifting for her and then "rewarding" them by usually pushing them out. Being governor, running as VP, dealing with this and that is more then she bargained for.
All I can say is good riddance. If the woman can't handle bad press and "mean" people how in the world would she handle any type of higher office?
Is the National Society of Newspaper Columnists prescient?
At 5:40 am July 3, about 10 hours prior to the Palin presser, MSNBC ran a story that began:
The National Society of Newspaper Columnists chose Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin as the winner of its annual Sitting Duck Award, a tongue-in-cheek honor that pokes fun at the most ridiculed newsmakers in the United States.
The article concluded with The selection was made last week at a conference in Ventura, Calif.
That apparently means the selection was made sometime between June 21 and 27.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/31720203/ns/politics-more_politics
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Let's not kid ourselves - this woman is going on trial, and going to prison, very very soon. Rumor has it its the house and sports complex. But really nothing at all would shock me.
The best analogy, I think, to what's happening here is Gingrich stepping down as Speaker and resigning his House seat not long after the 1998 elections. I think she's done as a public official.
Bedmondson, my conspiracy speculation would be that someone has hard evidence that Trig is actually Sarah Palin's child and not Bristol's. Beyond that the presser was so rambling and confused that I would rule out some strategical move. If she was gonna run in 2012 then why not announce at the same time? The media job thing is interesting, and I guess she'd get big bucks on Fox. Even with a nights sleep it seems an odd decision to me.
Looks to be "Housegate"
From Huffington Post:
"Many political observers in Alaska are fixated on rumors that federal investigators have been seizing paperwork from SBS in recent months, searching for evidence that Palin and her husband Todd steered lucrative contracts to the well-connected company in exchange for gifts like the construction of their home on pristine Lake Lucille in 2002. The home was built just two months before Palin began campaigning for governor, a job which would have provided her enhanced power to grant building contracts in the wide open state."
@The Nixon comparisons...
There are a few key differences between Nixon's "last press conference," and what Palin just did.
3. Nixon had been Vice President for eight years.
2. He ran for election, and then lost.
1. The number one reason why there isn't a Nixon-Pain comparison is that Nixon never dropped out of office (until he after was President *boosh*).
It would be like if Nixon got elected to office after he resigned the presidency. Never gonna happen.
I can't believe I'm giving advice to the Republicans but someone really needs to tell them that if your going to make a speech or announcement come with a prepared speech or at least note cards. I thought Sanford's long winding road to Argentina speech was a disaster but it looked like the height of organization compared to Palin's. It was like she was tweaking on meth starting sentences that got crammed into others. It was a complete disaster - even the geese behind her were better.
I'm going to go for theory 4 - Palin just looked to pleased with herself. It was like she was saying "Look at me I'm being to clever by half." Because she gave the speech on a Friday of a 3 Day weekend where more than likely the evening news on Monday will be nothing but Michael Jackson I think she's hoping the American people will forget that she's a quiter. From reading that email exchange about Todd belonging to the secessionist group, Palin clearly has the ability to believe her own lies. By 2012 she be telling her flock that she completed 100 successful terms as Governor and when someone tries to dispute that fact she say its the media elite out to try to ruin her life again.
If she does run and get the nomination the Democratic ads will just write themselves.
WHAT A MAVERICK!
Palin has always operated under a double standard: everything is ok if she does it, but wrong if someone else does. State business on private email? Important state posts to ignorant personal friends? While none of this was invented by Palin she is still severely ethically challanged. (Another reason thinking people dislike her public persona so much: she wants to be taken and understood as highly moral, no 'politics as usual'.) But it is precisely simple politics which will bring her down. She put a big target on her back and said "I'm better than rest of you base politicians," and then seemed to expect no one would push back. Now, like any bully, when the pushback comes she simply wilts and whines away.
I agree that she probably holds all those ideas Nate mentioned and even more. She has no doubt convinced herself that she is leaving politics and doing this for her family -until something else comes along that is more exciting and less demanding than family life.
The notion that resigning is some brilliant move in disguise assumes she has (can) even thought that far down the road. She could not stay on topic for even one short news conference, which pretty much sums up her ability to strategize for the future. One wonders now if we will see her cult of personality start to crack.
Palin's political career is a story of gut moves (what she calls bold thinking) that almost took her to the White House. She under the misapprehension that working from the 'gut' is more honest and pure. In fact, such a belief always leads one astray because it goes from being risk-taking (getting into power) to being risk-averse (trying to stay in power). Following ones gut from a position of power is generally self-indulgent. How else can you explain the logic of "my life political life has become too difficult; this is the best thing for Alaskans"? Wouldn't the best thing be to tough it out and modulate your behavior so that you can be effective?
Quitting could be a gutsy move if she really wants out of politics forever. Of course she could surprise everyone and lead a simple family life from here on out.... But what in her life would predict such humility?
I have a thought about Palin. You here some people say how talented she is. I certainly wouldn't describe her as a talented politician, but I do think he is a talented celebrity in the full on vacuous modern tradition. And this move is all celebrity, all 'look at me'. She is great at inventing spats and headlines without really doing very much. But I think that is her problem as well. It means she makes enemies and doesn't have a lot to throw back at them, in terms of her record.
All these Palin theories are hilarious. I can't stop laughing. It's typical liberal hatred of conservative women and minorities, from Clarence Thomas and Michael Steele to Condi Rice and Sarah Palin.
Imagine my surprise while reading this article and the one below it to see an add for Sarahpac in the left hand column. I laughed and laughed. I can't imagine that anyone reading 538 would be a likely donor to Sarah Palin.
@Grog - It is not just liberals that dislike her. Speaking as a Goldwater-conservative, I think Palin has become a disgrace to conservativism, to the Republican Party and to the country. It turned out that a lot of her limited-government credentials were based not on her support for those principles but her personal animosity to the Stevens/Murkowski cabal. The campaign outed her a big-government loving, spendaholic neo-Marxist who routinely abused her power for personal gain and those qualities actually made her more appealing to the Christian right. If Barry were alive today, he be the first person opening the door on her way out of politics and the Party.
As long as the Republican Party is the party of the theocratic former Dixiecrats while rejecting everyone who doesn't at least give lip-service to their totalitarian reconstructionist Dominionist dogma, they are never going to be relevant on a national stage ever again. They have to jettison the Scudderites and take the short-term political penalty for doing so, but they've maneuvered themselves into a position where they simply don't have the moral courage to do it and anyone who does is vilified not by the left but by the right.
The republicans are entirely capable of nominating Palin.... and not just once. And as she clinches the nom, the press, egged on by The Weekly Standard, will treat her as serious.
There's a good chance she will be president one day.
Remember Hitler was elected, with the backing of German industrialists trying to beat back socialism and labor unions.
Marc Ballard, look above you. That person might.
She was clearly upset during the press conference. I don't think we can rule out really bad medical news. It would explain her leaving and her state of mind. It could be scandal, of course, but this did not look like a long thought out decision at all.
Theory 6:
Blackmail. Although I agree with Theory 5, "Cashing In," I also do not doubt that some enemy or neutral party in Alaska has some dope on the Palin's and has agreed to keep it private if she resigns.
I am not from Alaska, but from my reading I have no doubt the Palins frequently walk the line of illegality, lies, and corrupt political practice. With the "Stick" being a stain on her reputation, and the "Carrot" being her book deal, a million-dollar-a-year talk show, and adoring fans she knows how to manipulate, blackmail can be added to Nate's "all of the above."
To be clear, this is different than "the other shoe about to drop," because it is "the other shoe she doesn't want dropped."
For real Bob?
The press is like a herd that sticks with a narrative once it has been defined. Sarah Palin's narrative is lightweight. I do not think she, or the Weekly Standard, can change it.
The bottom line as a Dem is I would love this woman to be the Republican nominee in '12 or '16. Romney is a much more dangerous general election opponent to Democrats. Palin, not so much.
GROG: All these Palin theories are hilarious. I can't stop laughing.
The only reason the theories are hilarious is because no one has been able to provide any others that make any more sense--not even from her supporters! That's the really funny part....
The republicans are entirely capable of nominating Palin.... and not just once.
Wouldn't the majority of Democrats DREAM of such a Republican maneuver? That would be like putting lipstick on a Whig. [/groan]
Alright, I have a 'Theory 0'. Palin has absolutely no wider political judgement, and has done it because she's tired of being Governor. Perhaps you've forgotten how awful she was as a VP candidate (the Couric interview was by far the worst political gaffe I have ever seen). She's a lame duck, and she can't be arsed, and so, in that mavericky way of hers, she resigns.
I certainly don't dislike Palin because she's a women, or a conservative, or even a conservative woman. I dislike her because she showed herself to be totally ignorant in the campaign, and she still believes that she should hold high office. That's what I dislike.
@ Foregone Conclusion:
Well I dislike her too, but because she is a dumb liar. Look at the recently released memo to Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager, about why Todd Palin was a member of the Alaskan Independence party for seven years, advocating vocally for Alaska's recession from the USA: "Oh that was all just an error, he checked the box to say he was an 'independent' and didn't know.'
Riiighhht. He attended meetings for seven years without realizing their homepage USED to demand recession (but now lists statehood as one of four options that should be put to a vote by Alaskans, with recession, territory status or Commonwealth status the other three).
I dislike Palin because Palin thinks we are all idiots that will swallow any bullshit she spews. The Palins are cynical lying sociopath opportunists willing to put other people in mortal danger if it advances their profit-seeking agenda. It does not require any partisan color to dislike people like that; although it might take removing the partisan goggles to see that they are people like that.
Remember she was taught how to be a national politician by John McCain. His big move was to suspend his campaign to deal with the financial crisis. Why wouldn't she quit be governor if you factor that in? Remember she was part of McCain's campaign you have to figure he asked her what she thought of it. I have never heard that she disagreed with it. Remember we all heard about her disagreement over pulling out of Michigan or not giving a concession speech, so if she objected to his pulling out there should have been some leaking of it out.
Sarah Palin resigned as governor of Alaska so she can run for Miss California. :)
I agree with the icebergers - and I think the iceberg is House/Sports Complexgate. Her press conference was too weird to be paving her way to bigger and better. It was more like getting out of Dodge.
Either that or Todd went hiking the Appalachian Trail with Levi.
Tony C wrote:
"Look at the recently released memo to Steve Schmidt, McCain's campaign manager, about why Todd Palin was a member of the Alaskan Independence party for seven years, advocating vocally for Alaska's recession from the USA: "Oh that was all just an error, he checked the box to say he was an 'independent' and didn't know.'"
Actually, it's dumber than that.
She lied when she said the name on the tax form was "Alaskan Independent". She claimed that a lot of people check that box, mistakenly thinking it means they are "Independent".
The name next to the box on the tax forms, however, is "Alaskan Independence Party", not "Alaskan Independent".
All anyone would have had to do to disprove her lie would be to produce a tax form, available at any post office in the State or online. It was a crude, clumsy lie and Schmidt saw through it instantly.
There were only two possible scenarios here. One is that she knew what the AIP was all about and was merely playing along to get their support (i.e. "lying to them"). The second is that she (and her husband) failed to do even the most cursory research on them before claiming membership in the organisation and speaking before it (i.e. "incompetence").
Republicans fail to see that by giving this woman a blank cheque and the perpetual benefit of a doubt on all things, their own credibility suffers.
Much like Bachmann, the Party defends her because she "riles up the libs", as if that was the primary qualification for holding office. Bachmann and Palin aren't "entertainers" like they claim Limbaugh is. They are elected officials. Sadly, this seems to be a distinction lost on wingnuts.
Todd Dugdale:
Well, from the republican politician's point of view, that is the wonderful thing about dummies.
You can lie to them, and when smarter people expose the lie you can lie to them again and they will believe you. Because they are dummies. You can follow every exposed lie with another lie and it works. Because they are dummies, and not smart enough to recognize a persistent pattern of deceit.
I am sure for the sick frauds that permeate politics and religion, recognizing how to manipulate these poor suckers gives them quite a thrill.
There is no question: If you are selfish, greedy and narcissistic enough then lying, cheating, corruption and crime pays pretty damn well.
The Nixon parallel comes to mind immediately. Nixon's resume, when he was chosen as Ike's VP, was similarly short -- a few terms in Congress -- and he was known to most of the public mainly from the Alger Hiss affair. Which is one reason why JFK, who ALSO didn't have a whole lot of resume, could beat him in 1960.
Nixon, however, used the six years between 1962 and 1968 to prepare himself to be President. A story:
Around 1966, my father attended a party and got into a conversation with a young college student who had just spent his summer attached to the US trade delegation in Hong Kong, a perk bestowed upon him for services rendered by his father to the Democratic Party. My father asked the kid what he his duties were in Hong Kong. The answer was to show visiting dignitaries around the town, including getting them laid when they had that in mind, which they very frequently did.
In the whole three months he was there, the kid said, only one visitor asked a single question about the colony -- Richard Nixon. He spent an entire day with the kid learning everything he could about it.
Palin certainly doesn't SEEM like the kind of person who would use the next two or six years preparing herself to go toe-to-toe with serious people for the highest office in the land, but who knows? If she uses a FOX or other right-wing media base for personal funding and does her homework, who knows what might happen? Certainly nobody thought Nixon would become President six years after his post-election speech in 1962.
One has to remember that Palin was chosen because she fit a niche -- she combined populism and conservatism with a gender that, it was believed, would appeal to women angered by Hillary's defeat. Her resume was never why she was an attractive candidate, and indeed wouldn't have mattered much if she hadn't demonstrated so clearly that she simply wasn't ready for prime time.
That niche is always going to be there for her, and in a time when the economy's woes can be blamed on the Democrats, which may be the case in 2012, she might do far better. IF she can dispel the general impression that she's a lightweight.
Nixon had been a Congressman, a Senator, VP for 8 years, and had nearly won the presidency in 1960. He had been the clear head of the Republican party, and had close contacts throughout its power structure.
Palin has been mayor of a tiny town, and bailed as governor of Alaska after 1/2 term. As Republican Ed Rollins pointed out this morning, she has not earned any national standing -- most people would never have heard of her if McCain hadn't pulled her into the limelight last fall.
Nixon 1968 and Palin 2012/16 are not even remotely comparable.
Nate -- on the off chance you read through all the comments and make it this far, I have a question for you as a sports guy. Isn't her "point guard against a full court press" analogy totally wrong? Who dribbles into a full court press?
The energy the Left spends in dissecting every move of Palin's ought better be spent considering the finer and even the broad details of some of Obama's key policies like health care reform and cap and trade.
But the current Democratic Party likes nothing more than a sideshow.
Not knowing what to make of Palin's stunning move -- which reveals the power of the woman -- the Left Wing meme is that the whole thing was "bizarre" and ultimately "stupid".
Her resignation suggests to most that without a power seat she will have no chance at politics and that given naked political ambition there must be some skeleton that is forcing her to get out ahead of scandal.
Me?
I take her for her word. She had the fairness and humility to say that you don’t need to cling to high office in order to have influence and to state that her state will be fine without her.
Embroiled in 15 ethics investigations -- in each of which Palin has been vindicated -- Palin understands that she has become a lightening rod for anti-conservative opposition and that this has severely undercut her effectiveness. In fairness to the citizens of Alaska she is stepping down.
Palin also knows that her ability to influence events is far greater by her stepping out into the limelight and speaking her mind and commenting on the current political agenda. As Governor of Alaska her ability to execute such a role would be limited, again a matter of effectiveness and fairness.
Palin's motives are classy and uniquely selfless and that's why the MSM and the Left cannot fathom it.
Palin is a woman of much potency. The Left and the MSM have been clamoring for a GOP leader to step forth. Perhaps one has just done that and in a most unconventional way.
Obama now is the symbol of patrician, hauteur and reserve. Removed from the people except in carefully scripted events, he flies above it all to New York and Paris on dates, living behind iron gates with his perfect (expensively educated) children.with his exotic dog.
In this world of privation and economic dislocation, of a depressingly slow climb and slog out of recession, the authentic Sarah Palin and her messy, yet familiar family, can indeed be the foil to the fake, fraud and failure that inhabits the White House (soon to be renamed the "Executive Mansion" ahem!)
Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin.
petekent01 (on twitter)
The thing that really struck me about Palin's speech was the incredibly amateurish quality of the setting, the content, the writing and the delivery. Say what you will about Palin's lack of book smarts, she is brilliant at developing and delivering a canned speech. In some alternate universe is a place where Sarah Palin hosts a morning chat show, called "AM in Anchorage" or "Good Morning, Alaska!" or "Sarah in the Morning!", on which she she gleefully presents recipes for Moose casserole, banters with her handsome co-host, and does hard hitting exposes of what the best treatment for dry skin is. And she'd be really, really good at all that.
This is why I highly doubt it was some calm, strategic decision. It would have been higher quality if she had had time to prepare it better.
Something was different here. She seemed disjointed, disorganized and desperate. She seemed panicked.
It was as if we watched an Olympic gymnast trip over an ottoman in her own living room and land clumsily on her ass.
My theory: either someone, somewhere has some major dirt on her (infidelity? incest? secret abortion? stealing state funds? The scandal would have to be really huge and un-spinnable.... think Edwards' love child or Watergate) and forced her from office as a condition of blackmail; or she has personally just lost it. (substance abuse? nervous breakdown? depression?)
I guess this thread is now officially dead as Pete Kent has shown up.
Who keeps inviting this guy?
Theory 5 is mine as well.
She has seen how much money can be made by saying stupid things in the private sector ... a female Rush Limbaugh is in the making.
I think she just wants to shut herself in a replica of the oval office and sign stuff while applying heavy eyeliner, drinking a cosmo, and ordering new outfits from barneys.
I don't think I can take another basketball metaphor from her surrogates.
They get all over me for questioning whether Obama was really born in HI and wondering about the truth behind Donald Young and Larry Sinclair, but that's nothing compared to the paranoid, conspiratorial ramblings that Palin inspires:
"My theory: either someone, somewhere has some major dirt on her (infidelity? incest? secret abortion? stealing state funds? The scandal would have to be really huge and un-spinnable.... think Edwards' love child or Watergate) and forced her from office as a condition of blackmail; or she has personally just lost it. (substance abuse? nervous breakdown? depression?)
"
petekent01 (on twitter)
Oh, and, Jen, the thread was dead before I showed up -- there is something about Palin that dispirits y'all. Even the vitriol isn't as much fun.
petekent01 (on twitter)
PK, my only problem with taking Palin at her word is I don't get what her word was? What reason exactly did she give for resigning?
Pete: Are you even trying anymore?
You're correct, she could have much greater influence by becoming part of the media you so despise for the facts and opinions that don't fit your existing world view.
But she's in it for the money, not to speak truth to power, same as Rush.
She has a family to support, too many exposed weaknesses to make a credible run for national office, and your feeble spin on "Quitters are winners!" just won't fly with anyone but the increasingly rabid right-wing core who will forgive her every misstep, while FOX News will keep putting her on because she's photogenic and tirelessly spouts an attractive line for that group.
Selfless? Right. With her book deals (I'm sure you'll buy 20 copies, and pay $50 more for her signature on each), her speaking appearances, and ease of slipping into the extreme right wing echo chamber, she has an optimal position in life, where all she has to do is be part of the peanut gallery and attack instead of build, her position secure no matter what she or her husband does.
The proof will be in if she moves or not. She can't be influential in Wasilla, so she's going to go south. She's going to go to California or Texas, somewhere there's a camera and professionals to keep away reality, making a show just for you, Petekent.
And she will have great power. She may even divide the GOP.
You keep hanging on to that conspiracy about Obama's birth certificate and secret muslim practices, Sarah'll be along soon to prove them "true". And all without evidence, because she's just that gosh darn good, you betcha!
PeteKent: Palin's motives are classy and uniquely selfless and that's why the MSM and the Left cannot fathom it.
No, we can't fathom it because she has such trouble expressing it clearly herself.
One can watch her speech and still easily be confused as to why she did what she did and why she's doing it now. And if we're confused, it's not our fault: it's her's, because she seems incapable of putting together a coherent argument. And it's not just liberals and the MSM. Even many conservatives can't figure this out. Only the die-hard Palin supporters seem to think that there's a method here, one that she apparently hasn't been able to verbalize in a manner comprehensible to just about everyone else.
She could have said: Here are the reasons, one, two, three, and here is what I'm going to do next, one, two, three. Instead, all she produces are vague bromides and platitudes about freedom, liberty, "building up," and the like. So no wonder we're confused.
Everything else in your post about her reasons and motivations and future plans must be conjecture, because she isn't giving anything more to go on.
slasher14 wrote:
"One has to remember that Palin was chosen because she fit a niche -- she combined populism and conservatism with a gender that, it was believed, would appeal to women angered by Hillary's defeat.
That niche is always going to be there for her,"
That's an insightful point.
I don't think that niche could bring her to the Presidency or Fourth Branch, but it could bring her into a Cabinet position in some future Republican Administration.
As long as she keeps putting herself in front of the public, either as a speaker or FNC commentator, there will be scrutiny. She's proven herself to be a gold-mine for tabloid-style journalism, and simply leaving office won't shake them off her scent. So if she is leaving office because she can't bear public scrutiny, then she just made a bad move.
She is also in a race against time, however. She will be over fifty when the 2012 election rolls around (I think), and make-up can only hide so much - especially when her audience will want to be seeing more. The ruthless honesty of HDTV will be her most vicious adversary.
But when a lightweight like Kouric makes someone look like a lightweight in comparison, then any political figure is essentially and exclusively in entertainment territory.
PK wrote:
"Palin is a woman of much potency. The Left and the MSM have been clamoring for a GOP leader to step forth. Perhaps one has just done that and in a most unconventional way."
Right you are, PK.
And perhaps Gov. Sanford's tearful admissions were actually an extremely clever way to "step forth". How "unconventional" of him! How else could he have seized the nation's attention, what with the media abjectly failing to report on his shining brilliance and political heroism? Surely this will make him a formidable candidate in 2012, right? Name recognition is half of the battle, after all.
The important thing here is that it's all someone else's fault, but it's also "all strategic".
It's a wonder how the wingnut mind can simultaneously see Republican heroes as both cunning schemers and innocent victims.
And the "Left and the MSM" haven't really been "clamoring for a GOP leader to step forth", either. They have mostly just been wondering if one exists and, if so, what they think about their Party going into the figurative political toilet.
Thank you for providing empirical evidence for my "cult of personality " thesis on Palin, too. Also.
GROG…
I can’t quite agree with your analysis of why so much humor is generated at the expense of your cherished GOP icons. Actually they are simply doing what they do best, and humor naturally follows.
And I have to say, Sarah Palin’s performance yesterday smacked of someone who doesn’t have a whole lot of brainpower. For such a momentous announcement, which she swore has been under consideration for some time, you’d think she’d take her time, write a thoughtful, intelligent speech and then deliver it gracefully. Instead, she sounded like she did on the Katie Couric interview—
COURIC: Why isn’t it better, Governor Palin, to spend $700 billion helping middle-class families who are struggling with health care, housing, gas and groceries; allow them to spend more and put more money into the economy instead of helping these big financial institutions that played a role in creating this mess?
PALIN: That’s why I say I, like every American I'm speaking with, were ill about this position that we have been put in where it is the taxpayers looking to bail out. But ultimately, what the bailout does is help those who are concerned about the health-care reform that is needed to help shore up our economy, helping the—it's got to be all about job creation, too, shoring up our economy and putting it back on the right track. So health-care reform and reducing taxes and reining in spending has got to accompany tax reductions and tax relief for Americans. And trade, we've got to see trade as opportunity, not as a competitive, scary thing. But one in five jobs being created in the trade sector today, we've got to look at that as more opportunity. All those things under the umbrella of job creation. This bailout is a part of that.
All ramble and blather, leaving the entire country to try and figure out what the #%^@&# she’s talking about.
My take is that she was rushed into this decision, and the likeliest reason for such suddenness would be impending bad news on the criminal justice front. I continue to think she will do something really stupid now, like try to flee the country. I suppose she could go down to Honduras. Might be pretty tough to get her back, provided the generals stay in power.
The niche Palin and the other GOP hopefuls will be aiming for in 2012 will be that of Great White Hope. Where I work, more and more white and Asian guys are making a daily habit of murmering not-so-quietly amongst themselves about how uneasy the President's way of governing is making them feel.
Basically they are becoming paranoid about what they fear might be an emergining minority-led oligarchy intent on governing like Hugo Chavez.
Of course, whoever emerges as the Great White Hope will be doomed to fail - too many white and Asian women still have crushes on Mr. Date Night.
PeteKent…
“Palin is a woman of much potency…”
So does bat shit, especially after it has lain around a while.
I don't know how many people remember this, but Guiliani did some seriously flaky stuff when he was running for the Senate against Mrs. Clinton. (We later found out that he had a serious health crisis.)
Anyway, he came back from that, although the circumstances that enabled him to were very odd, and obviously we all hope we'll never see anything like them again.
FWIW, the early flakiness was predictive -- he was flaky on the big stage as well.
I think the basic Palin explanation is pretty simple. She's just not up to it. I dislike almost everything about her, but I have to admit that I'd be folding up as well if I were in her place.
McCain really screwed her over by throwing her into the deep end. And for her part, Palin probably wasn't introspective enough to know that she couldn't do it. So she said yes.
And the rest is history.
But when a lightweight like Kouric makes someone look like a lightweight in comparison, then any political figure is essentially and exclusively in entertainment territory.
She would be good as a Fox host or on the 700 club or something. She is still decent looking and has held high office. If she wants to cash it in, I am all for it.
I think Alex S may have hit the nail on the head, except that it seems out of character for Palin to be so, well, humble I guess. And its not the being Governor of Alaska she is out of her depth with, its being on the national stage, and she has just made that worse by such a bombshell anouncement.
She has certainly left herself a lot of questions to answer if she wants to run for high office again. It could be some medical condition, there could be some scandal bubbling under the surface, maybe she just does want to move into media work for now.
Running w/McStain last year, she got a taste for the good life. Money, influence, clothes, deference: She loved every minute of it.
But that sorta stuff isn't part of the Alaska Gov's package. She needs to make a PILE of money. She cannot do it under the scrutiny of Govt wqatchdogs, no matter how co-opted and blind.
So she's quitting to exploit her name recognition, make a bundle, and pander to the Wackloon/Flying Monkey/Fundi-tard Right. Mebbe she sees herself as a kind of looney-tunes Steve Forbes?
I think McCain did Palin, and the GOP as a whole, a real disservice in choosing her as a running mate.
Palin is, for all her flaws, extremely telegenic and has good political instincts. She's also someone who inspires fierce loyalty among the party base. She has "It"... and that's a commodity that is both rare and cannot be taught.
Had she been allowed to continue to develop she would have had a shot at the Oval Office down the road. There are a few things she would need to have done first: fulfill her term as Governor with no great failures, have no big scandals break, pick up some of that book learnin' the media likes people to have and hopefully rein in the trailer park soap opera that is her private life.
Now, that all sounds like a long list, but really it was not insurmountable, given time. Mediocre public service (Jimmy Carter was a passably good, though not a particularly brilliant Governor), long ago scandals (W's rap sheet related to his drinking), lack of intellectual depth (No one ever asked LBJ to write opinion pieces for the New Yorker or the Paris Review), and a family straight out of Days of Our Lives (Have you read Clinton's early bio?) are not things that preclude a run for the presidency, but it takes time and distance. The public needs to know that those things are firmly in the past. And six months ago is not the past.
When McCain plucked her out of obscurity, he exposed Palin to a national public for which she was completely unprepared. From what I've read she was given either days or hours warning before the plane wisked her off to Minneapolis. Who could possibly prepare in that amount of time?
If it weren't for McCain, she would have been allowed to follow the more natural course of fulfilling her term with no catastrophic failures and then wait around for a Senate seat to open up. Or maybe a House seat. Or just wait for the next GOP president to name her to the cabinet... Interior, Energy and Veteran's Affairs spring immediately to mind. Maybe even a year or two as a talking head or lecturing on PoliSci at a small college somewhere. Hell, maybe even learn Spanish along the way. Any of those would have given her a little of that gravitas stuff, you betcha. (wink!) This track would have lined her up to be a competent, highly telegenic, experienced presidential candidate in her late 50's or early 60's who is popular with the base in, say, 2020 or 2024.
She would have been very, very, very difficult to beat.
But instead McCain, for his own inscrutable reasons, picked the fruit before it was ripe. She is now, and forever will be tarnished with the public's first impression of her. She has become a national joke, and that is a one-way trip. Just ask Dan Quayle.
I agree that Romney has been the luckiest GOPer in the room - he's winning by treading water. There is one other name out there that everyone seems to be overlooking - Joe Scarborough. He's got a daily national audience, never has to cast a difficult vote, and just wrote the book on how the GOP has to become less strident in order to appeal to moderates and independents. He's got a lot of room and time to maneuver and everyone else is dropping like flies.
Steve Forbes is a Looney-Tunes Steve Forbes...
I suspect there something else going on here. Read this:
http://www.examiner.com/x-9372-Federal-Way-Independent-Examiner~y2009m7d3-Sarah-Palin-and-the-AIP-Questions-still-remain-unanswered
I suspect that Sarah Palin may be considering heading up a THIRD PARTY ticket. And the reason she quit the governorship? It's going to take time to build momentum for such a movement, and it would definitely be a full-time job.
I would also like to be the first to suggest a name for the new party:
"The Fruitcake Party". After all, there's plenty of nuts in a fruitcake....
Jim said...
There is one other name out there that everyone seems to be overlooking - Joe Scarborough.
Yeah, good ol' Joe.
Actually, I don't think good ol' Joe wants a deep investigation of the Lori Klausutis affair to begin, and therefore I don't expect him to run. Might be a bunch of embarrassing tidbits of something that come out of any investigation, even if another investigation comes to the same conclusion as the original white-wash did - "No criminal charges, so there's nothing to see here folks, just move along." SOMETHING happened in the Klausutis affair, otherwise Scarborough would NOT have resigned from office in mid-term.
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
I don't think anyone has picked the right Nixon comparison yet. Its not 1952, or 1962, its 1974. Its Nixon walking out of the White House. Its that sense of throwing yourself to the fates without much of a sense of direction, but with a sense of an uncompleted mission.
FWIW, I think Palin has 2 things going through her mind: 1) Being governor of Alaska is getting in the way of her speaking engagements, all of which position her to run for Pres in 2012 and 2) She realizes that being governor of Alaska is cramping her style and that instead of doing that dead-end job, she could be out preaching truth to power (snicker, snicker) and making money while doing it to boot.
I think that's about as far as it goes in her mind. There have been a lot of fascinating and interesting theories posted here, but I just don't think she thinks that deeply about anything.
She truly believes in her mind that she could have been/should have been at the top of the ticket in 2008, let alone 2012.
There may be other scandals that break, but I doubt she believes they would actually scratch her teflon coating any. She has a big head and ego and she's off to keep it well fed.
Yes, build an inevitability narrative around Mitt Romney. Those seem to work out really well.
Governor of South Carolina admits to a scandal in a rambling speech; governor of Alaska announces her resignation in a rambling speech. I cannot help but think of "quantum entanglement," also known as "spooky action at a distance." (For those who do not follow Physics, quantum entanglement it is the condition where two separate objects have coupled states.)
@Nosimplehiway
"Had she been allowed to continue to develop she would have had a shot at the Oval Office down the road."
I disagree... She missed her opportunity to get educated some 25 years ago. And this is something that you can't make up for later, not to mention that she doesn't seem to be interested in understanding things.
@ Mike in Maryland
SOMETHING happened in the Klausutis affair, otherwise Scarborough would NOT have resigned from office in mid-term.
Although the Klausutis affair shows signs of a cover-up,it had nothing to do with Slimeball Joe's resignation.Scarborough announced in May 2001 that he would resign in September 2001.Klausutis died in July 2001.
Palin is delusional. She's perfect for Pete.
Nosimpleway: Mediocre public service (Jimmy Carter was a passably good, though not a particularly brilliant Governor), long ago scandals (W's rap sheet related to his drinking), lack of intellectual depth (No one ever asked LBJ to write opinion pieces for the New Yorker or the Paris Review), and a family straight out of Days of Our Lives (Have you read Clinton's early bio?) are not things that preclude a run for the presidency...
That may be true, but has a successful candidate had all of these things? And all of the people cited above had some significant accomplishments to counterbalance or outweigh their flaws.
I agree with former_covansian that she just doesn't seem interested in learning what she needs to learn, not unlike W. Heck, she didn't even get the "We're not retreating, we are advancing in a different direction" attribution right in yesterday's speech (it was Maj. Gen. Olvier Prince Smith, not Gen. Douglas MacArthur).
Her whole attitude in 2008 was that it was more important to answer with confidence than to answer correctly with a command of the issues. And that may play to a portion of the public, perhaps even to a majority of her diminished party, but I doubt one can play that game for very long in the general presidential campaign. It seemed that people were already seeing through the facade.
And if it was "too early" for her to take on the role, then she should have said no. If she really didn't know what she was getting herself into, that doesn't say much about her judgment.
Opus 132,
But what was the reason Scarborough gave for resigning (which, BTW, was just six months after winning reelection to a fourth term, and after only four months into that term)?
"To spend more time with my children."
Does that sound familiar?
The rumors of an affair started swirling before the body was cold (actually as soon as he announced that he was resigning the seat), and good ol' Joe never completely dispelled the rumors, but in fact caused them to flame higher by non-answers and (to many) disputable responses to specific questions about what happened in the office that night.
He also signed the 'Contract on America' that specifically called for term limits. And he never refuted that portion of the CoA. That in itself could lead to questions about him keeping his word.
Besides, he's "too moderate" for the red-meat conservative right-wingers.
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
This is bizarre, erratic, unreasonable and unpolitical behaviour. Doesn't this fit into to her persona? There can be few Americans who can view this as a good decision? An Obama-Palin 2012
contest(contest?). Seriously, can
anyone conjure up from American political history such a mis-match?
The best I can do is George Washington and King George 3rd. Well, the latter was mad, perhaps not such a bad analogy afterall?
While I think Palin bailed for the dough, I think that something else impelled her. Alaska is going to have to raise taxes or take "the people's" share of oil and gas revenues to keep the struggling state government afloat. In fact, as a ratio of projected debt to projected income, Alaska is in worse shape than most states including California.
So, Palin decides to move into the private sector to make a lot of dough, and does so before the new Governor has to take flack for raising taxes (or decreasing the socialistic share of gas revenues "the people" would otherwise get.)
Palin's statement is opaque (to everyone except the genius PeteKent) because she is generally incapable of telling the truth and dissembles badly when she is lying.
Don't get me wrong, I think Joe's a netcase, but he's set himself up perfectly - a national audience (and gets paid handsomely), a national bestseller that positions himself as the "rational" on in the party (an gets paid handsomely), gets to "spar" with those on both sides of the fence and comes across as a "good guy", can bash Obama without too much back-lash (except from Pat Buchanan) and can keep this stuff up until the last moment (until it gets too obvious that he's in the race). Sounds like a dream come true to me.
let's keep it real. not some...all liberals "hate" Palin. Add to that most centrists that also despise her and you have about 50-60% of the population. The fact that the majority of the rest really like her or even love her is irrelevant, except for 1 thing. If the Republican party feels as though they have no one else to turn to, they could turn to her. This would be fantastic for 2 reasons. #1, it would make OBama's 2012 campaign an easy cakewalk and he could focus and helping the country and not worry about an unlosable election. #2, the Republican party as it is would die off quickly and reform as a closer to center, more Rockefeller type party and less neo-con nutjob party. This would serve everyone well. Palin for 2012 GOP, go Palin go. PS, I understand all 5 of her kids told her yes, quit your day job and fight for your love of everyone. 1 of her kids even said hell yeah. I wonder if that was her 1 yr old with down syndrome. Some people are so full of shit...
"PeteKent: Palin's motives are classy and uniquely selfless and that's why the MSM and the Left cannot fathom it."
What a joke. Nothing the Shrilla from Wasilla has done since she was foisted onto us by the McCain campaign last Sept was either classy or selfless. Screaming about the media and then using it for her own agenda? Claiming her kids were off limits but pimping them out on national tv during and after the convention? Complaining about mean spirited people in politics and then suggesting that Obama was a terrorist..or at least associates with terrorists. She is a walking contradiction.
How unfortunate for me. I was thinking that maybe PK would be in mourning or have jumped off a bridge or something in the face of his bimbo's resignation. Damn.
Sounds like the feds are investigating a building contractor in Alaska with ties to Caribou Barbie and her secessionist husband. How will the Family Values GOP explain a federal indictment? Stay tuned.
http://www.thedailybeast.com/blogs-and-stories/2009-07-03/did-a-scandal-sink-the-uss-palin/?cid=hp:mainprom
Please remain front and center Caribou Barbie! The more you're on the scene, the more rational Americans are reminded that they have to choose between nutjob party and some other party. They've got to choose that other party, to run as fast as they can from you. Ideal situation. You gotta figure out how to win the nomination from Romney. Here's a recommendation Barbie...remind your conservative folks that Romney was pro-choice when it was convenient in Massachusetts and then switched sides when necessary. It'll really rub them the wrong way. Then, remind 'em he's Mormon, they don't like that either. Then you get to say you were the first female to run as the candidate for a major party and can millions doing the speaking circuit, etc. You'll fully sink your party and then can start over, but not until after OBama and company fully flesh out their agenda over the next 8+ years. Perfect vision, thanks Barbie.
I didn't think her goodbye speech was that bad -- but then I judged it against the Couric interview.
Like many others who think she is pathetic and worthy of contempt, I cannot say I'll be unhappy if a major scandal breaks, but I sort of doubt it. This just seems the actions of a narcistic (sp?) personality who is not 'winning' anymore, has discovered a lot of enemies near by, is depressed by financial debt, and has discovered an ignored Down's baby at home.
Eric said...
let's keep it real. not some...all liberals "hate" Palin.
Eric,
Let's DO keep it real.
I am a liberal, and I do NOT "hate" Palin.
I detest her for taking her kids on the campaign, then bitching about "media intrusion" into her family.
I abhor and despise her for her lack of curiosity of what's going on outside her immediate sphere when she aspires to higher office, an office that mandates that she have curiosity about that going on in the world.
I loathe her aspirations to enforce a theocratic regime on the US if she ever has such an opportunity.
But 'Hate' her?
No.
The ones I DO hate are the TROLLs and idiots of the far right who have all the above characteristics, or defend such characteristics in candidates, and then preach 'family values' to everyone (while taking a hike on the Appalachian Trail).
In other words, the hypocrites that mostly control the GOOPer party these days. The so-called Christians whose behavior would be abhorrent to Christ (if such a person ever existed).
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
It's easy to figure out Palin's intentions. Just strip the garbage out of her resignation speech and all you're left with is:
I'm going to do something in the public sphere, but not at the Governor's desk.
I'm going to support candidates of either party or no party if I agree with their agenda.
I've been thinking about this for some time and you'll learn the details later.
Join the dots - she's got a firm radio or (more likely) TV offer. She's going to be the next Rush or Hannity.
At the moment her job as Governor is all that's standing between the Palins and a bucketload of money, so under the bus it goes with everything else that got in the way of her ambitions. It's money for nothing, like Todd's snowmobile sponsorships. It's a Palin dream come true. And as a bonus, you it frees her from real responsibilities and accountability.
People shouldn't be distracted by her twitchy incoherence during her speech - she's always like that.
LOL Mike in Maryland...I couldn't have said it better. Hate is a strong word. I was referring to a post Nate made earlier. My point simply being she could be a catalyst for sinking the Republican party ASAP. I'm a left of center centrist. In this country, up until recnetly that would probably be called a liberal. I'm not sure whether I'd prefer the Democrats to call the shots wholly for the next 30 years, (ie Reagan's movement 1981-2008 or FDR's 1933-1968) or for the GOP to start over with a party that closer resembles a party that Teddy Roosevelt, Nelson Rockefller, and Dwight Eisenhower would be proud of. If they do that, a 2-party system might be for the best. Palin might push the GOP there, when they realize they're truly uncompetitive as currently constructed.
"typical liberal hatred of conservative women and minorities"
If liberals really hated women and minorities, then it stands to reason that those groups would actually, you know, vote for conservatives.
Was Palin in Argentina lately?
Actually, I wonder if this has to do with Governor Haley Barbour being appointed to leave the Republican Governors' Conference over Palin.
The resignation is confusing in various ways. If this was an attempt to come down to the lower 48 and leave Alaska behind, her resignation speech didn't make it clear.
Besides, you never resign one office without a better "opportunity" coming from somewhere else. Certainly, she could have pulled some strings to be a Fox pundit or a member of some neoconservative think tank. Heck, she wouldn't even need a paid position. Just some cover to help her move on.
Is this was to get away from some political liabilities in Alaska? She recently proposed a new pipeline. DId she resign because the Alaskan legislature wasn't as excited by it as she was. Did she resign because Alaska's budget is becoming a bit of a mess? Or, because the legislature is so angry at her, they simply aren't dealing with her any more?
A good politician in this case would have buckled down and heal the rifts. They would have healed the political wounds, and make amends. In the end, they would have shown to over come adversity.
I think everyone is quite confused by this move, and are really waiting to see what she has planned.
As long as this means I don't have to worry about even the most remote possibility of a Palin White House, I don't know that I really care what her motivations are.
I just watched Palin's speech. Did anyone else notice that she was trying a new modulation of her voice? Some parts clearly showed traces of the modulation of a certain sitting President. She still has trouble making coherent sentences and she spoke way too fast throughout, so she failed quite miserably. But there was a noticeable change from her previous speeches that could only be intentional and the result of some (but clearly not enough) practice.
Has everyone read this article on Palin, in Vanity Fair? It was written in the past week or two and is quite interesting.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/08/sarah-palin200908
She essentially comes off as a petty lightweight who's main talent was being an opportunist. I don't think she has the capacity for any grand visions. I think she simply got sick of the grind of being governor and under constant attack, so she decided to retreat the the easier world of giving speeches to friendly audiences.
Is it possible, just possible, that she'll move the family south and take a run at Gov. of Texas?
Or maybe she just flaked out.
Just watched the actual speech. Never ever seen a more nervous speech. I choose options 1-3. One interesting thing I noticed was that she took some themes of Obama's campaign and tried to use them against him, like his theme of government working from the bottom-up. This makes me think she has thoughts of running, however deluded they are.
Try this on for size: What group of people loathe her even more than liberals? The GOP leadership....More than anyone, they have everything to lose with her in the race. What if they sent a pointman down to pay a visit. She is told that an investigation which will destroy her is about to hit, BUT if she decides to drop out of politics......they can make it all go away.....to far fetched? This would certainly explain the nervous, unprepared rambling speech she gave....
Hate isn't such a strong word...
I hate yard work, but I still do it.
The definition is just extreme dislike; so heck I hate bible thumping evangelical republicans, and I hate liars and assholes and corruption and hypocrites and ruthless opportunists, and by definition (and the transitive property of hate) I thus hate Sarah Palin. And Todd Palin. And John McCain, Rush Limbaugh, Hannity, and all the rest of that crew.
It doesn't mean I am going to anything about it; but I am not falling into the Bush-Cheney trap of redefining the meaning of words so I don't have to use a harsh one. Torture is torture. Hate is hate. These people make me angry to the point of yelling at the screen, I cannot think of what "intense dislike" is supposed to mean if it does not include that.
My own take is that it's a combination of issues. But first, what is almost certainly is not:
Palin's no more likely to be indicted for something than the Clintons were during the '90s. Honestly, you sound like Larry Klayman proclaiming that THIS allegation will bring her down. She ain't pregnant either.
Now what it is:
As you've said yourself, Nate, it's a bad time to be a governor, telling people they can't have the spending they want and/or their taxes will rise because governors can't print money. Approval ratigs for governors everywhere are falling; Sarah's no exception.
Second, the process is likely to get even more front-loaded. I'll bet you that Iowa, New Hampshire, and probably several other states will have their Presidential events in 2011. That means it's important to have your machine put together even earlier than in this cycle, by the end of 2010 at latest. That means Sarah would pretty much have to leave Juneau before the end of her term.
So, if she's made her decision to run in 2012, then there's no reason to wait to resign the governorship.
Oh, and if you want to make her President, then by all means continue with the hatred. The three American politicos most despised by the media, the establishment, and the elite opinion makers in the last 50 years were Nixon, Reagan, and W. Each one got elected President. Twice.
So keep fantasizing about raping her children if you want Palin to be President from 2013-21.
Putting all the merits of Palin's policy positions aside (whatever they are), let's look at the politics.
A NY Times poll from the end of October found that 59% of respondents said that Palin was not prepared for the job of Vice President. 35% said she was prepared.
Now, that's for Vice President. And that wasn't about she was the best person for the job, only whether she was "prepared." And bear in mind that many of that 35% probably consisted of her die-hard supporters.
Given that almost 60% though she wasn't prepared for the VP slot, how does this move convince people that she's going to be prepared for the top position? It may play with some inside the party bubble, but to everyone else it's hard to see how this doesn't hurt more than it helps.
To me, it echos McCain's "suspension" of is campaign to deal with the economic crisis. He tried to make it look like he was sacrificing his own ambitions for the greater good, but it came off looking as erratic, and I don't think it helped.
Brian Jenkins: That means it's important to have your machine put together even earlier than in this cycle, by the end of 2010 at latest. That means Sarah would pretty much have to leave Juneau before the end of her term.
I don't think so. Pawlenty isn't leaving. Yes, Palin is farther from Iowa, but one can start putting one's "machine" together without physically being in IA or NH. (Obama certainly didn't spend all of his time in those states and still created a terrific organization on the ground.) And many candidates manage to run in the actual primary season--not just prepare for it--while still in office.
if she's made her decision to run in 2012, then there's no reason to wait to resign the governorship.
Sure there's a reason: to gain the experience that was one of the biggest raps on her in 2008.
it's a bad time to be a governor
I don't see how quitting when times are bad enhances confidence in a candidate that many people have doubts about. Maybe it will play well in certain circles, but Palin will have to expand her appeal to win a general election. It's hard for me to see how this moves helps that.
Still, I suppose anything can happen in three-plus years.
DSimon, thanks for the reasoned response. To address your points:
Pawlenty's not leaving because he's probably not running. Pawlenty was never popular to begin with (he won both terms as governor only because of divided opposition), and has too many black marks against him (the I-35 bridge collapse, the Coleman/ Franken drama).
Your second and third points are basically the same argument- Palin won't have experience as governor, and that will hurt her. My response is to look at the guy currently at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue, and to conclude that experience can only hurt Palin.
Voters in both parties now seem to think that experience is a negative. This is why Obama defeated far better candidates (IMHO): Hillary Clinton and John Edwards made tough decisions, and people didn't like some of them. Obama never had, because he'd never been in the position to make tough calls. The Republicans clearly have the same dynamic going- it's far better to be "pure" than to have made an unpopular choice.
Brian Jenkins said-
So keep fantasizing about raping her children if you want Palin to be President from 2013-21.
What the hell is this? You really should go back and delete your post and apologize.
Wildly inappropriate and offensive. Get some mental help, now.
dsimon-
Why would you treat anyone who says people are fantasizing about raping Palin's children as a serious poster? Saying something as foul and heinous as that deserves no response in my opinion, other than straight condemnation.
I don’t see why folks want to lump Palin in with Ensign and Sanford, both are damaged goods, Palin is in a much different category, one, I think, of enormous potential.
Her motives are reasonable. I do not believe she will become a commercial figure any time soon, at least until not after the 2012 elections -- if she is not Vice President by then.
Obama is presiding over the domestic equivalent of the Iraq War, the difference being there is no patriotic call to persistently high unemployment, slow growth and frighteningly high budget deficits.
Palin will write her own ticket in 2012. She will rally the middle and blue collar classes back to the GOP ticket.
Right now I see Mitt Romney as the standard bearer for the Party, but this could change.
The one constant is Palin: America's working class, feminist heroine. Just as you accuse her of being -- Queen of the Trailer Parks.
The Republican Party thanks Axelrod and Plouffe for registering all those downscale voters for us, especially the hillbilly boyfriends and husbands.
ROMNEY – PALIN ‘12
petekent01 (on twitter)
Bravo to Tony C.
Brian Jenkins said: "DSimon, thanks for the reasoned response."
Looks like you were really surprised anybody would take you seriously after the **** that you had put in your post. Is this a sign of a troll with conscience?
Brian Jenkins:
I still think you didn't respond to my main other point: that plenty of people actually run for president while holding office. Moreover, she wouldn't even have to resign to have time to do so, since her term ends in 2010. I think it's hard to spin this in a way that makes sense.
Nor do I think that I'm saying that she just needs more experience. If she's resigning because things are tough for governors these days, then that doesn't look good for her willingness to fight back in the face of adversity. The ads write themselves.
Voters in both parties now seem to think that experience is a negative.
I don't think that's true. If people could have judgment and experience, they'd take that over just judgment. Obama's campaign alone showed shrewd judgment. But I don't see much from Palin's record that demonstrates either experience or judgment.
By the way, I see little evidence of either Clinton or Edwards making "tough decisions." (My critique of Clinton was that I couldn't recall her taking a position as senator that entailed any political risk whatsoever, despite her safe seat.) That goes for both parties; under Bush, wars were free, tax cuts were free, prescription drug plans were free. No one has really asked the public to make the "tough choices" they demand their representatives make for them because they fear the public won't stand for actually doing something about the issues they care about, whether it's tax cuts or health care. Whether the problem lies with the elected officials or the pubic I leave as an open question.
I cited a poll above that most people didn't think she was prepared for being VP, much less president. So once again I ask: if she's running for president, where will her majority come from? And how will this move help?
It's a very strange dynamic here. Palin's supporters seem to assume she knows what she's doing, and therefore her actions must make sense even on the very thin record she's giving us as to what she's doing. I think it's better to start with the facts of what she says and does and try to reach some conclusions from there. To resign without giving clear reasons, without a plan, with such a meandering statement, especially when the one of the biggest raps on her is that she's erratic...it doesn't seem to me to be a way to inspire confidence in anyone who doesn't already believe in her. And for those who have doubts about her, it only adds to the judgment issue.
Notice in his litany of those he hates, Tony C identifies only people fo a right wing persuasion, ascribing bad personal qualities to them, without knowing any of them personally, only through the imperfect filter of the media.
What Tony C hates of course is not people, but ideas.
Some ideas are detestable and worth hating, despising and fighting against.
petekent01 (on twitter)
From the thread above -- for context --
Can you really fault Palin for leaping at the chance to make a difference in the destiny of the nation when McCain asked her to be his running mate? Taking her at her word Palin is a person of strong conviction who wants to have an impact.
In many respects Palin is much like Obama, but with the handicaps of lacking an “Eastern/Ivy League patina” and having to deal with a hostile, as opposed to an adoring, media. Like Obama, she is fresh and authentic and she commands attention.
Nate recognizes these similarities and then goes onto to launch a hatchet job, writing her obituary as a personage at her zenith, questioning her motives.
All of that may or may not become clear. .
A poll I saw suggested that she is at about equipoise at 43-43 approve/disapproval. Not far for her to go to get to 50. Her base is a great deal larger than her opponents will acknowledge. She may not hold the views of all, but she is a crucible for the hunger of a large, perhaps a majority of the population to have its voice heard and feels it is not really being listened to.
It was the potency of Palin’s middle class authenticity and the reality of being the very avatar of an outsider that electrified the nation to her possibilities. She was what Obama was only posing at being - -an authentic trailblazer from outside the establishment. And like Obama a true believer.
A person like Sarah Palin gets once shot like this in a lifetime. If she were Governor of Kansas she might have a few extra shots left in her, but for Palin when McCain picked her, she saw her one and only chance to leave the farm and truly make a difference in the world.
The proof for Obama will be in his results, but if most economists are right we are in for a prolonged period of stubbornly high unemployment, which will be accompanied by incomprehensible changes in energy and health care policy, all of which will cost more money than the nation has spent in the entirety of history. Only an incompetent opposition should lose to this.
Thus the left wing dissemination machine continues spread the meme of GOP incompetence, of leaderlessness. They make much of the destruction of our leaders (Ensign and Sanford) while appointing straw men to destroy (Rush) while ignoring those who speak reasonably and comprehensively about policy and our values (Newt, Romney, Cheney, Boehner, Mitchell, Ryan, Pawlenty) while being sure to demonize the one popular threat out there, Palin.
Obama is being seen more and more as a packaged product, something out of P&G. Contrary to Nate’ assertion, Palin’s rambling home spun announcement with her hard to quantify motives (for you all, I guess) will only add to the legend of her authenticity.
Wait till it is she who unmasks Obama as the Emperor who is wearing no clothes! She has the second biggest megaphone in the nation and is its freshest, most interesting (if polarizing voice).
ROMNEY – PALIN ’12
petekent01 (on twitter)
PeteKent, I hate to keep calling you on some basic facts, but....
if most economists are right we are in for a prolonged period of stubbornly high unemployment, which will be accompanied by incomprehensible changes in energy and health care policy, all of which will cost more money than the nation has spent in the entirety of history. Only an incompetent opposition should lose to this.
The CBO recently came out with numbers showing that the House energy bill would cost the average household $175/year by 2020. The changes in health policy are designed to cut the growth of spending; as Obama has pointed out, the current system is unsustainable. So I don't know where you're getting your data that these two programs alone will incur a large bill, much less "more money than the nation has spent in the entirety of history." Heck, even the scoring of the Senate Finance Committee's health care bill was $1.6 trillion over 10 years. The 2009 base military budget is over $500 billion alone, so just three years of military spending would be more than the 10 year cost of health care reform.
As for stubborn unemployment, that may well happen. But as long as the trend is upwards going into an election, won't it be hard for the opposition to win? And isn't it unlikely that things will be as bad as they are now in three more years?
Can you really fault Palin for leaping at the chance to make a difference in the destiny of the nation when McCain asked her to be his running mate?
Yes, of course, why not? People with judgment know when they're ready and know their limits. If she misjudged her own abilities, who else should bear the responsibility? Isn't part of being a competent leader knowing when to say no?
And I think the idea that this was her only shot is, well, ludicrous. She's young and had plenty of time to make an impact. Still does. There was no pressing need for her to jump into national politics when she did.
It was the potency of Palin’s middle class authenticity and the reality of being the very avatar of an outsider that electrified the nation to her possibilities.
For the sake of argument, we'll say she's "authentic." And yes, some people are attracted to that quality. But since when is that the primary qualification for high political office? Aren't there plenty of "authentic" people who would make lousy presidents--such as most of us? Surely there were just as many people put off by her assertions that only she knew "real America" as those who gravitated towards her, so her version of "authenticity" may not play well outside a limited audience.
Contrary to Nate’ assertion, Palin’s rambling home spun announcement with her hard to quantify motives (for you all, I guess) will only add to the legend of her authenticity.
I'll wait for the polls to see whether it adds anything for those who were not true believers already. It seems far more likely to me that for anyone who had doubts about her--and those are the ones she needs to convince--the lack of anything resembling clarity in her speech would only add to the sense that she is erratic, as does the very act of quitting itself.
Why is my 538 troll remover not getting ride of PeteKent? Waah! I don't want to read his tripe.
WV: dedstr any thread taken over by PK is a dedstr.
@JStern -- I was referring to Nixon's resume when he was put on the national ticket as A VP candidate in 1952, not when he won in 1968, by which time he of course had far more experience. In 1952, Nixon had two terms as a Congressman and two years worth of a Senate term under his belt. He had no executive experience and no state level record, either. I think he's a reasonable match to Palin, the difference being only that Nixon was far better known nationally than Palin because of the Alger Hiss case.
@all the people who respond to PeteKent's posts: look, PeteKent doesn't give a rusty fuck what you say -- he gets his rocks off by provoking you, and by responding to him, you only fulfill his fantasies of being something other than a twit with no ability to plumb issues beyond what his radical right mentors tell him. Please note that all of his posts degenerate quickly into whining characterizations of his opponents, as in "sniffle, sob, sniffle, the media attack Palin but not Obama." This is because he has no interest (or ability) to marshal facts to defend his positions, and all that's left is to attack you for attacking him. This is lame, of course, but you only enable it by responding to it.
If NOBODY responds to him, he'll go away, because he has no purpose in posting other than to flatter himself that he's taken seriously when you react. Ignore him and save the valuable electrons which will otherwise be slaughtered in his name.
@Nate -- I am getting really bored with having to set up a new Google account every time I want to post. EVERY time I try to do so under this (or any other) ID, I'm told I entered the wrong password, which I know damn well I have not. In order to post, I have to then set up a new Google account under a new ID, whereupon I am allowed to post UNDER THE ORIGINAL ID. I have complained about this before to your site and gotten no response, so I'm doing it here in the hopes of getting some action. I am NEVER able to post normally.
Does anybody else have this problem?
slasher14,
In a word:
NO
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
slasher14, I did the same thing for a very long time. It turns out that when it asks for your "USERNAME" and password, what you enter in "USERNAME" is not "Bob X" for me or "slasher14" for you, but rather the confirmation e-mail address that you gave it. Some people immediately find this obvious, I am not one of them.
A couple more hypotheses:
1) She's going to take over as head of the RNC. This would be the rational move if she was going to serve the party and the country. She has great appeal to the Republican base and can motivate the donors, but has little appeal with the general public. Unfortunately, she's almost certainly not as smart as Howard Dean, either intellectually or as a politician.
2) Cohost with Limbaugh? Rush has his health issues, and this might be a great way for her to do the "cashing in" scenario. Plus if he's the de facto spokesman for the Republicans, it's the best place for her to be from a wing-nut perspective.
Yikes!
I read the text of Palin's goodbye speech -- on her own web site, http://www.gov.state.ak.us/exec-column.php, where she (and her staff) had a chance to clean it up. It's still completely disjointed and empty, and it contains several errors any proofreader should have caught.
One of those errors caught my eye. I'm sure they just didn't understand the grammatical rule they were breaking (i.e., that the intended referent of "it" is "the dairy business," not "government"), but I couldn't help noticing the truth about Palin's views, and those of the Bush administration and their friends, that emerged when I read the sentence as grammar dictates:
"We took government out of the dairy business and put it back into private-sector hands – where it should be."
Hello, Halliburton ...
Michael Moore doesn't seem so extreme anymore.
p.s. -- My guess: talk show host.
ohiovoter said...
My guess: talk show host.
From HER standpoint, that would be the best option to increase the family bank account.
But in reality, it would be her WORST option, as it would put her on the air every day for 1-3 hours, and the verbal gaffes, misphrased, incoherent ramblings, and just general idiotness of her would be on display day after day.
Imagine how much fun Letterman would have with that - he could replace his now dropped "Great Presidential Speeches" segment with a "Great Politician Speeches" segment, and feature S.P. every night.
And lest we forget, Leno will be doing a nightly one hour starting this fall in prime time. It's difficult for me to think he wouldn't have some comments about her comments if she trotted them out day after day, as she would on a broadcast at Faux News or on Lush's 'network'.
As to America? BEST option, as it would put her intellectual INcuriosity on display for all to see, and be revolted by, on a daily basis.
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
@BOB X -- Thanks a million, bro.
Yeah, I don't know why I respond to him either. Just something in my brain which masochistically has to clean up garbage when I find it.
PeteKent said...
"The energy the Left spends in dissecting every move of Palin's ought better be spent considering the finer and even the broad details of some of Obama's key policies like health care reform and cap and trade."
There is plenty of consternation about Obama's presidency coming from the Left on this site and others. We are able to do more than one thing at once.
"But the current Democratic Party likes nothing more than a sideshow."
This is what politics IS right now on both sides. See Conservative glee over Spitzer and Edwards' scandals (not to mention most of Clinton's) for discussions of minimally-relevant-to-governing sideshows perpetuated by the Right.
"Not knowing what to make of Palin's stunning move -- which reveals the power of the woman..."
No, it doesn't. Because she is enigmatic, that means she is powerful? My freezer sometimes goes on the fritz puzzlingly. It is almost surely because it LACKS enough power. The Conservative Pundit flaw has seemed for years to be that the person who causes the most outrage or controversy MUST be the one telling the most truth. Sometimes people just say crazy nonsense because their mind is full of crazy nonsense, not because that means they are too brilliant to be understood by their critics.
"She had the fairness and humility to say that you don’t need to cling to high office in order to have influence..."
It is true that one can be powerful when not in high office, but it doesn't explain her decision at all--one can obviously also be influential while _in_ high office. Few out-of-power insurgents rise to have the sphere of influence of someone who is actually governing people as an executive.
"Embroiled in 15 ethics investigations -- in each of which Palin has been vindicated..."
She wasn't found to have "unlawfully abused her authority as Governor" during Troopergate?
"In fairness to the citizens of Alaska she is stepping down."
This is up for debate, since the investigations were costing the state money, but the Governor did not appear to show much concern for Alaskans as she governed by Blackberry for months while running for VP.
"Palin also knows that her ability to influence events is far greater by her stepping out into the limelight and speaking her mind and commenting on the current political agenda. As Governor of Alaska her ability to execute such a role would be limited..."
Maybe, but not as much as you make it sound. I see Palin on my TV more often than I see any representative of my own state. She has had a national soapbox whenever she has wanted one.
"Palin's motives are classy and uniquely selfless and that's why the MSM and the Left cannot fathom it."
I have to agree with other posters here. I honestly don't find anything about her classy or selfless, but regardless--the reason there is speculation is that no one really knows what she was saying or why. Charles Krauthammer doesn't know. Tony Blankley doesn't know. Karl Rove is puzzled. This is not the Left.
Continued from the last comment:
"Obama now is the symbol of patrician, hauteur and reserve. Removed from the people except in carefully scripted events..."
The lone national superstar highlight of Palin's career was a scripted speech in front of a fawning GOP audience in Minnesota.
"...Sarah Palin...can indeed be the foil to the fake, fraud and failure that inhabits the White House..."
So because she is quirky, liable to do massively unpredictable things, and has no polish on her political acumen, she would thus make a good president? There is a difference between wanting the occasional breath of fresh air from a stuffy over-managed room and wanting to open all of the doors and windows and let a tornado in just because it is "free-spirited."
"Let the wailing and gnashing of teeth begin."
If Governor Palin had what looked to the outside world to be a shrewd, potent plan to climb the ladder, there might be some teeth-gnashing among Liberals who dislike her for any of at least half a dozen reasons. But there is not that confidence among the Left that Governor Palin is doing anything clever by resigning, and by the looks of it, there isn't any confidence of this by Palin either. If there were, she sets up a huge, piercingly-focused July 15th news conference and steps down with a clear, optimistic agenda laid out. THAT is how someone captures the public's attention for a gangbusters career switch and the kickoff of a renowned public speaking/fundraising tour. Instead, she resigned ON A HOLIDAY FRIDAY with no advanced fanfare. That doesn't convey selflessness, just cowardice. My teeth may gnash if she DOESN'T run for office again.
Reason zero: she misses the attention. "How are ya gonna keep 'em down on the farm after they've seen Paree?"
Its all about the money. She did say that the lawsuits had taken half a million from her family, from her kids and pointed at one (I remember thinking -is that the one they want to make it to college). So she has justified doing things for the money, and realizes she can make more in the next year with book deals and speaking engagements, etc. And why bother finishing the job? She has a history of quitting things and probably is very good at convincing herself that she is doing it for the greater good.
Shallow people like her only give up power for money. Somebody ran numbers by her and showed how much she can make in the next year.
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