In trying to understand Creigh Deeds' smashing win in yesterday's VA gubernatorial primary, turnout patterns are one obvious thing to focus on. But the more you stare at the numbers, the more Deeds' win looks like a triumph of persuasion for him rather than any failure in mobilization efforts by his rivals.
The total vote topped 320,000 or 6.4 percent of registered voters. That was well above the 250,000 that state officials expected, and over double the turnout in the 2006 Senate primary that was the most cited parallel. To be sure, one defeated candidate, Brian Moran, clearly seemed to be banking on a low turnout (at least outside NoVa), but the size of Deeds' win probably made that irrelevant.
But how about the geographical distribution of the vote? Did that favor Deeds or disadvantage Moran or McAuliffe? Doesn't look like it.
Given the apocalyptic storms that hit NoVa just as polls opened, one might wonder if turnout there was lower than it should have been. To check that, I looked at the percentage of the primary vote cast in NoVa's 8th, 10th and 11th congressional districts in 2006 and yesterday. In the 2006 Senate primary, NoVa famously dominated the results, and sure enough, an amazing 42.9% of the statewide vote was cast in those three CDs. Yesterday, the percentage was down to 37.3%. It's hard, however, to suggest that this represented a turnout failure, since the percentage of the statewide Democratic vote produced by the 8th, 10th and 11th in the 2008 presidential general election was only 33%.
Moreover, the parts of the state that produced a significantly higher percentage of yesterday's primary vote than in 2006 were not by and large "Deeds Country" in central or SW VA, but in Hampton Roads and the Richmond area. The (majority black) 3d CD's share of the vote jumped from 8.9% in 2006 to 11.8% yesterday; that was the one district won by someone other than Deeds (Terry McAuliffe).
So there's nothing funky about turnout patterns that had much to do with the ultimate results. And BTW, since there's some talk about McAuliffe's defeat representing the "end of Clintonism," you can look at maps of the counties HRC won in the 2008 primaries and compare them to yesterday's results and see that Deeds was especially strong exactly where she was.
6.10.2009
Size and Distribution of the VA Primary Vote
@ 1:42 PM
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Oh please. "Apocalyptic storms?" The Iraqis risk their lives voting in every election, yet we Americans are so worthless we can't even go out in the rain to vote.
Dude. Scott. Do you live in NOVA? There was some serious lightening and rain yesterday. It wasn't safe to be out in it. Apocalyptic, maybe not, but dangerous enough to stay inside or hurry home, yes. Chill out.
I think someone forgot to tag this post.
@ Scott,
No offense, but have you ever heard of hyperbole? It's a common literary element.
I do understand your frustration that we as Americans often take our right to vote for granted. However, in a country where we don't have anywhere near 100% voter turnout, things like weather, especially very bad weather, often affect how many people show up to the polls.
@ everyone,
How do you think the greatly increased (above expectations and 2006) turnout bodes for Democrats and Republicans in the general election?
I would like to submit that Deeds himself might be one reason for the higher than expected turn out this cycle. I think that we in the blog world, and most commentators everywhere, had pretty much taken as a given that, because of the ridiculously low early voter numbers and the history, there weren't going to be many voters in this election. But then Deeds hit the air-waves HARD in NoVA with some, in my opinion, really persuasive ads. Anyone from the area think people got enthused about Deeds from some of these ads and voted when they probably wouldn't have before because of that?
@Will,
I don't live in NoVA- what were the ads about and why were they so good?
Dude. Scott. Do you live in NOVA? There was some serious lightening and rain yesterday. It wasn't safe to be out in it. Apocalyptic, maybe not, but dangerous enough to stay inside or hurry home, yes. Chill out.
I live in South Houston. I stayed home for Hurricane Rita and Hurricane Ike and drove through the eye of Tropical Storm Eduardo. Believe me, I know what bad weather looks like :)
I realize my tone came off a bit strong in my first post. I just can't imagine anyone who cares a whit about their government staying home because of the weather. It's inexcusable.
Since VA is an open primary state, without party registration, comparing '08 general election vote shares to the '09 or '06 primaries are really comparing apples and oranges. However, how much of Obama's '08 vote total came from the NoVA three CDs? That's the best proxy for partisan distribution that VA's got.
However, his lackluster CD3 results are somewhat ominous. I just hope that Deeds will be able to mobilize voters in Hampton Roads and Richmond City come November; without getting the maximum out of that, he's going to have to significantly outperform Obama in either NOVA or rural, non-Southwest VA (Deeds will beat Obama's share in the Southwest, aka Appalachia).
Kate,
"Lightening" never hurt anybody. The risk of traveling in lightning is minimal. The car, after all, is a metallic shell which protects the occupant.
And did the apocalyptic storm last all frippin' day?
Americans just aren't that into the mechanism of democracy, and that especially goes for off-year primaries.
wv: clutory: I'm not going there.
Sorry to digress and pontificate, but I feel I should say something about lightning, since I am a meteorologist and have often heard people dismiss lightning safety. Around 200 deaths and 750 serious injuries result from lightning strikes each year in the US every year. People always compare lightning strikes to the lottery, but it does happen, and to dismiss the danger is to invite disaster. That said your other point is good too, did the lightning storm last all day? however, people sometimes can only set aside a certain time slot to vote, and if something stops them at that time, they might not get a chance to vote.
June 3, 2009, six days prior to the primary, a little league baseball game in Spotsylvania County (Fredericksburg, about 20 miles south of DC) was delayed because a storm was approaching.
From the WITN.com news site:
"Spotsylvania County sheriff's 1st Sgt. Liz Scott says umpires had halted a baseball game because of the weather and ordered participants off the field. But Chelal Matos and an 11-year-old teammate remained and were playing catch under parents' supervision.
Scott says lightning hit Matos and the charge transferred to the other boy."
The polls open at 6:00 am in Virginia, and many people vote early. Then they go to work.
A series of storms rolled through Virginia at just after midnight Tuesday morning, then another wave came through just as dawn was breaking. The storms also hit Baltimore.
Polls close at 7:00 pm in Virginia, but because there are several thousand voters per precinct, most people don't even try to vote after work. And because many people work 20 to 60 miles from home in NoVa; and car pool, take public transportation, or form 'slug lines' (impromptu car pools) for the HOV lanes, many don't even have an opportunity to vote during the day time hours.
Another, third, extremely fast moving series of severe storms rolled through the Mid-Atlantic region late Tuesday afternoon, hitting Baltimore City about 5:00 pm with high winds (estimated at 50 miles per hour, but some locations clocked 100 mph gusts. The wind was so strong that it took down many trees, and cut power to about 65,000 people in the Baltimore area alone. The leading edges of the storms moved from Frederick, Maryland to the Maryland-Delaware beaches (about 150 miles) in about three hours.
This same late afternoon series of storms also rolled through Virginia, and radar showed the storms were even more severe in Virginia than they were in Central Maryland. Winds were strong enough to blow down a 75 year old linden tree on the White House grounds.
In addition to the winds, hail, and rain, there was a tremendous amount of lightning, almost continuous lightning, in the early morning and late afternoon storms.
So yes, many people, especially in NoVa, probably didn't go to the polls because of the storms and fear of lightning.
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
One factor I haven't seen mentioned in McAuliffe's loss is a well-known historical phenomenon in the South. Southerners tend to be very suspicious of out-of-staters coming down from the North and trying to run things. How many people voting against McAuliffe were thinking "carpetbagger"?
That said, Deeds ran the sort of quiet, grass-roots campaign that was easy to underestimate. He'll be a formidable candidate.
Daniel,
Of those 200 Americans killed by lightning every year, how many are playing golf, soccer, or other outdoor sports which have them in exposed positions for a prolonged time?
How many are struck while in their car?
How many are struck while walking a couple hundred feet from their car to their workplace, the grocery store, or the polling place?
While I can believe that the vicious storms made driving an ordeal of traffic jams and poor visibility, you'll have to pull out more than one very general statistic to convince me that Virginians would've been risking their lives to vote the other day. It seems they might have been at greater risk of dying from the flu than from lightning.
Lightning, schmightning. It's a shame that Americans don't value democracy enough to get the fupp out and vote.
As importantas voting is, to vote a person has to make their schedule fit the availability of the polling places. This is why European countries have voting on Sundays.
If voters were sent mail-in ballots and could send them back to the Board of election up to the day of the primary, you would have much better "turnout" in the primary votes.
Remember how effective early voting was in the last Presidential election?
Voting is a right. But people should not be forced to jump through hoops to exercise it.
Nobody here actually calls it "Nova". Nova is the community college. I never heard Northern Virginia referred to as "Nova" until I moved to Charlottesville.
James said...
Nobody here actually calls it "Nova".
BS
As examples (just from the first page of a Google search using 'Nova Virginia' as the search term:
Northern Virginia Magazine
"The number of pet-care professionals in NoVA"
Alpha Sigma Alpha - Northern Virginia (NOVA) Alumnae Chapter
Alpha Sigma Alpha - Northern Virginia (NOVA) Alumnae Chapter
MCC NOVA
Metropolitan Community Church of Northern Virginia ... Directions MCC NOVA is located at . . . .
Belfort Furniture - Washington DC, Northern Virginia (NoVA ...
Belfort Furniture features the best selection of furniture and mattresses, serving Dulles, Washington, DC, Arlington, Alexandria, Loudoun County, ...
NOVA SHRM :: Northern Virginia Society for Human Resource Management
We also have a Facebook network, so type in NOVA SHRM in the Group Application to ...
OA NOVA - Overeaters Anonymous Of Northern Virginia
Overeaters Anonymous
Parents Of Autistic Children, Northern Virginia Chapter
Autism Speaks, What's New?, Next POAC-NoVA Workshop
Just because YOU didn't hear it doesn't mean it's not used. Although I live in Baltimore, for more than 20 years I worked in McLean, Virginia, in the heart of NoVa, and constantly heard people call the area by that acronym, including people who were born and raised in the area, along with their parents and grandparents being born and raised in NoVa - in other words, multi-generational residents of the region who called it NoVa.
On a technicality, you might get a point - very few type it as Nova, but more generally type it as NOVA, NoVA or NoVa. Other than that, your comment is nothing but male bovine droppings, and shows how unreality based your observations were when living in NoVa.
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
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