The first post-Democratic primary poll shows Virginia Sen. R. Creigh Deeds leading former VA attorney general Robert McDonnell in the state's gubernatorial race, 47 percent to 41 percent, with 10 percent undecided.
Surely Deeds--who handily defeated bigger-name opponents Terry McAuliffe and Brian Moran in Tuesday's Democratic primary--is reaping the political windfall from his win Tuesday and his crucial, May 22 endorsement by the Washington Post. Of course, his lead may shrink or even disappear as voters begin to think more specifically about the head-to-head matchup with McDonnell, in what should be a very intense and competitive race through the summer and fall. But it's clear Deeds has made steady progress, trailing McDonnell in a potential head-to-head matchup by 6 points in late May and by a whopping 15 points back in mid-April.
Deeds's lead in the latest Rasmussen is a byproduct of better intraparty support--89 percent of VA Democrats support him, compared to only 78 percent of VA Republicans who support McDonnell--and stronger favorability ratings. (Deeds's 59 percent "somewhat favorable" rating among respondents edged McDonnell's 52 percent.) McDonnell is, however, trusted more on issues of taxes and cutting spending, Rasmussen reports.
As almost everybody knows by now, this contest will be a rematch of the 2005 attorney general's race which McDonnell won by a mere 323 votes. Given that voters already had to make a pairwise comparison of the two men four years ago, the mere 10 percent who remain undecided with five months to go is hardly surprising.
6.11.2009
Deeds Leads
@ 11:23 AM
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it's essential for nat'l parties to control statehouses, for the 2010 Census and for the 2012 national elections
it's gov's who turn out the troops
Given the difference in voting demographics in Virgina between 2005 and today, it's hard to see how McDonnell could have a chance if the race was effectively a tie 4 years ago. Just looking at the presidential election - Bush beat Kerry by 8% in 2004; while Obama beat McCain by 6%... That's a 14% difference in the national election results for the respective parties, and these exact same two politicians TIED 4 years ago?
This thing is over before it begins.
As the recession rages and more and more people lose their jobs and worry about their futures, as they contemplate higher taxes and a no-growth environment, and as international threats become all the more manifest, I suspect the Democrat brand will be universally tarnished.
The 2010 elections have the potential to be quite the bloodbath for the Dems as the voters begin to realize that Obama is both a liar and a failure and that his Congressional allies are lunatics.
Already the writing is on the wall for his Stim-U-Less bill and his health care overhaul is going to turn into a mess going down in flames of overconfidence and overreaching.
And we haven't even gotten to cap and tax yet or seen $4.00 gas!
Add 10 pts today’s polls and you will see that Deeds is a sure loser, tho as CONSERVATIVE he does stand a marginally better chance than most.
That’s the way I see it!
petekent01 (on twitter)
Am I naive to think that both of the previous posters (Pete Kent and Glenn Doty) are mistaken to think that the vote will fall strictly on party lines? Call me crazy, but I think that people in VA will actually vote on the candidates as opposed to the D or R next to their name.
To that extent, it seems that this election can't be a referendum on either the Obama presidency or the Republican brand. Why? Because Deeds (a VA Democrat like Warner and Kaine) is more conservative than the blanket Democratic Party. And McDonnell is much more socially conservative than northeastern and western Republicans (they do still exist!). So even though us political geeks would love to extrapolate, I don't think that's appropriate here.
Can we excise PeteKent's mindless natterings? Nothing to do with the subject. Pathetic. Cut-and-paste from Rush Limbaugh and the other leaders PeteKent adulates. What an infantile idiot.
On the subject at hand. Deeds is merely reapiny the publicity storm following his crushing victory. It won't last as we revert to the mean. The VA goober race will be a horse race.
PeteKent,
I understand that time might work differently in crazy land, but the rest of us remember $4/gallon gas. That was a gift the Republicans gave us just last summer after all.
Who then, JS, is giving us the gift of the huge run up in prices since Obama became Prez?
I agree that, typically, gubernatorial elections are not necesariloy referenda on the popularity of the national party, but every once in a while the national issues pervade all.
Obama has turned into everything the right feared he would be and took pains to conceal during the election. He concealed it because he knew it would make him unpopular
Now drunk with his own power and mesmerized by his own magnetisim, like a latter-day Narcissus, Obama has fallen prey to believing his own press clippings.
The apparent failure of his economic plans which are at best causing the economy to bottom out at a very low level and certainly will produce crushing interest rates and inflation, which will cause a further collapse (another parallel to FDR) are certain to cause his popularity to wither.
What then is left for the Dems? They are the party of Pelosi and Reed and with Obama on the ropes the GOP will seem potent indeed.
Without Obama you are nothing!
petekent01 (on twitter)
I'm really interested in the notable uptick in turnout in the (heavily African-American) 3rd CD. Turnout was 4% in the 2006 Senate primary (the race Jim Webb ultimately won by a hair) and 9.4% on Tuesday, and I can't believe that the presence of McAuliffe in the race accounts for most of the difference. I wonder if the 2008 registration push and the Obama victory in Virginia are now paying off for statewide candidates, motivating more potential voters to get active in the process. If so, it will change the expectations game significantly for Democrats in the future, as we're talking about 23,000 voters, give or take.
Oh and STepper -- you are the spamming cut and paster here -- following me around like a stalker.
Please follow me on twitter (petekent01)
Oh and here's what liberal academic and Obama supporter, Camille Paglia, had to say recently in Salon about Obama's economic plan and the negative impact it will have on his fortunes and, by inference, those of his party:
"[T]he Obama presidency will be mainly measured by the success or failure of his economic policies. And here, I fear, the monstrous stimulus package with which this administration stumbled out of the gate will prove to be Obama's Waterloo. All the backtracking and spin doctoring in the world will not erase that major blunder, which made the new president seem reckless, naive and out of control of his own party, which was in effect dictating to him from Capitol Hill. The GOP has failed thus far to gain traction only because it is trudging through a severe talent drought. But the moment is ripe for an experienced businessman to talk practical, prudent economics to the electorate -- which is why Mitt Romney's political fortunes are steadily being resurrected from the grave."
Worried yet?
petekent01 (on twitter)
First of all PK you are aware I hope that the VA gubernatorial election is in 2009?
Secondly, I think the Dems have done a great thing by nominating a moderate to contest an election against someone who is by all accounts pretty damned right wing. I think a lot of the border regions are actually fairly moderate, and now that people understand that the GOP is being run, both in mind and heart, from the far right. Thats why places like Virginia and Colorado out west are turning increasingly blue.
Oh one other quick thing PK, which 'international threats' are you particularly worried about?
2009? Even better -- no time at all for the Stim-U-Less to work. Unemployment by then should be 11. Democrats will be hiding in attics.
As far as international threats go, how about the resurgent Taliban, Iran and North Korea which was lauching a missile a day last week while conducting its second nuclear test of the year.
Joe Biden warned us: "This man will be tested."
We should have listened!
petekent01 (on twitter)
While good for Deeds and Democrats I don't trust RAS with claiming Republicans are trusted on most Issues.The Economy and Ethics?
Deeds has good shot at winning but I will wait for another pollster before celebrating.
and for Republicans who for some reason come here With Mccain/Palin the economy would be so much worse with more taxcuts for wealthy,no stimulas spending,more deregulation of business,and all the GM and Chrysler workers would be out of work.
Deeds seems like a Warner type of character that fits perfectly in Virginia. That is only based on his name though and not on anything else.
We have already seen $4.00 gas, under Bush.
Everything PK has predicted has been wrong, when he starts predicting that good times are coming, then it is time to be worried.
Gas has gone up 80% since Jan. 20th. Everyone blamed Bush for high gas prices, but amazingly no one blames Obama.
What has Pete Kent predicted that hasn't come true in 5 months?
I'm not surprised that McDonnell's support among Republicans is weaker. He got involved in the fight to oust state party chair Jeff Frederick, who was a darling of the younger/House of Delegates/Club for Growth wing of the party. The move may have been worth it to have a more competent chair, but it wasn't without its costs in grassroots support.
Come on, guys. DFTT.
Tom, I would disagree that many people other than pundits will be seeing this contest primarily as a rematch. The fact is, voters pay a lot more attention to the governor's race than the Lt. Gov or AG. For example, in my precinct in Tuesday's primary, 40 people didn't cast a vote for Lt. Gov out of 269, and those are primary voters, who are relatively well-informed.
Arguably, Deeds could have won his race four years ago if Kaine had done more to promote him in Northern Virginia, where he ran weaker relative to Kaine than downstate (though I'm not sure about the other urban areas.) I don't fault Kaine; he was in a close race and couldn't know that he was going to win comfortably. But it is important not to project by just trying to adjust demographically from the previous Deeds/McDonnell race. Way more than 323 people didn't cast a vote in that race, but nobody who comes out to vote fails to vote in the governor's race.
GROG: The first thing I can think of that Pete has predicted that hasn't come true - and I only remember this because I saw him reference it again on the previous thread and it's absolutely insane - is his belief that President Obama will be shown to have been secretly born in Kenya and then be removed from the presidency.
This of course, has not and never will happen, because Obama's Hawaiian birth is proven beyond all reasonable doubt.
Other false PeteKent predictions include every prediction he made of first Hillary victory, then McCain victory
If I had a list of his posts, and could stand to read them, I could try to quantify his predictions and then hand them over to be evaluated on an item by item basis. However, I don't, and I can't, so I won't.
But I'm quite certain his prediction rate would turn out to be far far lower than you believe.
Looks good for Deeds. I think most would have expected to see him tied. Now both he and the Dems need to run a perfect campaign, similar to Scott Murphy. McDonnell is a fringe right-wing nutjob. If Deeds people make that crystal clear to Virginia voters, he'll coast to victory. Also, Deeds has a deep bench of popular Democratic Governors and Senators to stump for him, not to mention the President. Who does McDonnell have, Eric Cantor? LOL
Saying that, I don't trust Rasmussen's polling under any circumstances. Even when it has the Dem leading. Sorry, but he lost all credibility with his ridiculous push polls and shilling for Mooseburger.
Pete, you been eating retard sandwiches again? WTF.
GROG—
The far harder to answer question is: What has Pete Kent predicted that has come true in 5 months?
I actually laughed when I read this one:
BREAKING NEWS . . . . Supremes Stay Chrysler Bankruptcy Plan
http://tinyurl.com/lhgubt
I think the "Geithner Plan" is about to be undone.
My suspicion is that Ginsberg will surprise many on the left and begin the undoing of Obama's command and control economic vision. This will be another parallel to FDR when the then sitting Supreme Court rebuffed that man's attempts to use economic crisis to bring socialism to America. Stay tuned!
petekent01 (on twitter)
PK said
'As far as international threats go, how about the resurgent Taliban, Iran and North Korea which was lauching a missile a day last week while conducting its second nuclear test of the year.'
----------------------
One at a time-
Resurgent Taleban- Well they have been 'resurgent' for quite some time. And in the end is that really a threat to the US?
Iran- Is that the same Iran were it appears a new moderate regime is about to take power, and hence become less of a threat? In part because Ahmedinajad has been less succesful at using anti US rhetoric, because of the less beligerent President in Washington? Yep that has really made the US less secure.
And North Korea, a threat to the USA? A threat to China perhaps, but North Korea doesn't possess powerful enough rocketry to threaten the US.
My point, that globally the US is under far less threat, at least from nation states, than it was on January 19th.
I seem to remember Pete doubling down on the alleged BREAKING Ashley Biden coke snorting tape scandal that even Murdoch's New York Post wanted to fuck-all to do with.
Two fucking days he peddled that story for, which he no doubt got from FReeptard Central.
LOL Porridge -- of course Biden's daughter got a free pass from the media.
These are the same people who are not reporting about the misery that exists under Obama's recession and the highest number of people still on unemployment since 1967!
Imagine if this were Bush's economy -- the stories of human misery and privation and frustration would be filling the nightly news nightly.
Buncha tools you all are!
petekent01 (on twitter)
BTW is PorridgeGun a nickname for your penis? Jes curious!
petekent01 (on twitter)
The only thing that annoys me about PeteKent is that he can't read an approval poll. Obama is popular...REALLY popular.
From what I've seen so far during this gubernatorial race, Bob McDonnell is RUNNING AWAY KICKING AND SCREAMING from the right-wing of his party. And Creigh Deeds is embracing his party. What does that tell you?
Oh right. Obama is popular.
Guess what? In November, Obama will still be popular.
In 2010, Obama will still be popular.
In 2012, most serious GOP candidates will pass on the race.
And you folks can pick your party up by 2016...just in time for demographics to make it almost impossible for you to win outside of Appalachia...
Deeds is already calling Bob McD out on his vulnerables ... Creigh knows this guy and how to beat him. McDonnell turned back federal big bucks for unemployment insurance to save a small increment in unemp insurance, which would still leave Va. one of the lowest rates in the US. The reason Deeds won so big? People want a serious candidate to beat Bob McD, who is very skilled, like wolf in sheep's clothing when he comes to No.Va. So, folks tossed out the carpetbagger and the too-lib -- and I think they got a diamond in the rough, very appealing to Va. voters.
A close look at history wil tell you why Deeds should be a strong favorite this time. Check out the spending between Deeds and McDonnell in 2005 AG's race( go to VPAP.org for $$'s)... McD. outspent Deeds 2:1, and won by 360 votes. What the primary shows is the better people know Deeds, the more they like him... because what you see is what your get... a moderate, progressive Virginia Dem. who respects and is respected by both sides.
On the other hand, the more folks know about McD., the more they worry about his social conservatism... choosing to do a law degree at a right wing religious university, the close connection with Pat Robertson,etc. Deeds closed rapidly in Northern Virginia in the '05 AG's election by pointing these things out, but ran out of money. That won't happen this time.
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