Mike Huckabee, in spite of having a weekly show on Fox News, is getting very little attention these days. Over the last month, Huckabee has 271 Google News hits, as compared with 1,209 for Mitt Romney, 3,292 for Newt Gingrich, or 9,653 for Sarah Palin.
But when it comes time to actually poll these candidates, Huckabee comes out looking pretty good. A new PPP poll, for instance, for the 2012 (!) Presidential Election shows Huckabee being more competitive than his Republican rivals against Barack Obama.
Huckabee gets the highest percentage of Democratic support (17%) among any of the four candidates PPP tested. He also does the best job of consolidating Republican voters, getting 77% of their support.
Yes, it's ridiculously early to be polling an election four years into the future. Still, one wonders whether the Republican establishment will notice that the same things that make Huckabee unpopular with them (such as his 'unorthodox' positions on cap-and-trade and education) may make him more appealing to actual voters, and whether the media establishment will notice that he's every bit as likely to become President someday as someone like Palin.
4.23.2009
Why Doesn't Mike Huckabee Get More Respect?
@ 9:16 PM
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Nate --
Q10 on this poll states that 41% of the respondents were self-identified conservatives. This seems high to me. Is that a typical number?
I always thought Mike Huckabee was one of the more likable Republicans - but after the comment he made about Barack Obama to the NRA, it's hard to see him as anything but another crazy wingnut. Maybe I'm making too much of it, but I think that comment (which is on video) will bite him in the ass if he starts running another serious campaign after Obama's served his first term.
Maybe having his own show is hurting him. How many people take television personalities seriously enough to vote for them? Before he was a politician, but now he's just another talking head.
He's charming as hell, but he's also nuts, with various baggage items like a dog-abusing son. He'd get creamed when it was time to start shovelling dirt. (In which case I say bring it on, but I'm biased in the other direction.)
@blackcoffeedrinkingliberal
About 40% of Americans identify themselves as conservatives, 40% as moderates, and 20% as liberals, so 41% seems about right.
I think turning this proposition on its head might shed some light on what's actually happening here:
Perhaps Mike Huckabee's individual brand is doing so well precisely because he's not receiving any attention? At a time when the Republican brand in general is at its most toxic, and Mike Huckabee already dodges the "traditional republican" label on so many issues naturally, no news to remind voters that he's a Republican opinionmaker is probably good news.
Huckabee's problems:
--his political positions are more in line with European-style Christian democracy than hard-line conservatism
--he isn't a firebrand
--his show has a bad timeslot
The liberal percentage is low--only 15%. The conservative percentage is a bit high, but by only a couple of percent. A 40-40-20 mix would yield an approval rating of about 55-57%. Huckabee is the one to worry about.
His fair tax proposal is just as bad as any other GOP proposal.
Interesting PPP would come up with some Rasmussen-like numbers.
A standard (and I think fairly accurate) trope about modern politics is that the contemporary GOP is based on a coalition between three different groups (though obviously some folks fall into more than one category): 1) Social conservatives; 2) Fiscal conservatives; 3) Foreign policy hawks.
Huckabee is anathema - and even that word is not strong enough - to groups 2 and 3. Neocons and Club for Growth/Americans for Tax Reform types will never, ever accept Huckabee as the nominee. These folks have quite a lot of pull in the party and dominate the elite media conversation far more than social conservatives do. That's why you are not hearing about Huckabee, and it's hy he will never be the nominee - no matter how well he matches up against Obama in the polls.
lol 2012 ?!? late 2007 Obama was 30 pts. behind HRC in Iowa primary polling.
The question should be, who will be the Rep sacrificial lamb in 2012.
btw, we need more polls, more pollsters, more pundits, more political sites on the net. ;)
My (2) fav polls were the 2006 midterm and 2008 presidential election, no margin of error! :)
take care, blessings
His "middle of the road" positions, like the insane "fair tax" platform, or the ban on certain forms of birth control, his position that a fertilized ovum is human being with full rights under the constitution. Yeah.. he's real centrist with great appeal.
OT: Nate on ESPN's Baseball Tonight right now.
might want to try to learn how to stand a bit more "normal" on baseball tonight. looked weird. fake, natural stand lesson may be required. The rest was fine.
Really hard to figure out what to do with the hands.
you are still a genius though
Nate, did you really post this 40 minutes before you are appearing on Baseball Tonight? What are you, posting from the set?
Huckabee defies the worst caricature of the GOP-- he comes across as an actual compassionate conservative. While the Republican brand is toxic, Huckabee manages to stay out of the sickest stuff while keeping the evangelical base solid in his camp.
Nate, I'm watching you on Baseball tonight and you're still way too stiff. Relax, the camera loves relaxed.
I watch Baseball Tonight for the first time all year and who do I find? I might have to start regularly watching. I have no idea how you will be able to not strangle Kruk though.
I'm going to have to stop saying "Everyone on Baseball Tonight not named Ravech is an idiot."
Huckabee was up and down at the beginning of 2009 in Google Trends as well and has flatlined since.
Huckabee's problem winning the GOP nomination is that economic conservatives dislike him. This might not matter if he had a solid evangelical base, but in the primaries he is likely to divde the evangelical vote with Palin, which will make it easier for Romney to win the nomination.
Of course all this is wildy premature speculation--as late as 2007, people were anticipating a Hillary Clinton-Rudy Giuliani race...
Nate, some advice for BBTN:
Hands out of the pockets.
Thinner glasses--consider laser surgery.
You look a bit stiff on the set.
I am surprised Huckabee is not getting more attention too. He has good visibility with the Fox viewing crowd, important in the Republican primary vote, and he did win several states last year--and he is not a frothing rabid pit bull like Palin is. I don't pretend to understand the far right Republican mindset, but Huckabee has as good a chance as anyone I think. And I do think he would do better than Palin.
Huckabee = MrTaxes.
Here's the deal with Mike Huckabee. He was the governor of my home state for 2 1/2 terms, having been put in office due to the resignation of Governor Jim Guy Tucker. He stayed in office primarily due to the lack of strong challengers. He has always been known as a fairly good speaker (Baptist preacher prior to entering politics), but he is also known to be patronizing and thin-skinned. He is not known to be a deep thinker (I don't recall him saying anything remotely cerebral), and thus the reason for often utilizing his quick wit when asked about political issues. He has strong right-winged beliefs such as that man can't destroy the earth because it was created by God, and often uses phrases from the Republican dictionary - envirowackos, etc. His fairly good polling marks are undoubtedly due to the lack of serious scrutiny he gets. Were he the Republican nominee, I think he would be exposed as just another wingnut.
This poll definitely seems to have a Republican learn to it, seeing as Obama's approval rating is only 53%. Pollster.com puts his approval ratings at 62.2%
Fuck you, Nate's the Man...you're just another fukkin' wacko!!!!! I hate you. I hate you all!!!! I was a fuckin' Arkansan too early on. Moved and then moved back. Got my BS, MS, and phD at SAU in Magnolia. Hence the fuckin' name. Get it?!
Anyway, Micky Huckster is awesome and would kick Barry's nigger ass all the way back to Chicago. Fuck you. You're not a real Arkansan, nor are you a real American. I'll hunt you down and kill you...and then gut you like a fish...and eat you in front of your friends and family. I fuckin' hate you and would love to choke you to death. Bastard!!!
Turn COMMENT MODERATION ON, FUCKBRICK!!!!!
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Turn COMMENT MODERATION ON, FUCKBRICK!!!!!
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Turn COMMENT MODERATION ON, FUCKBRICK!!!!!
Turn COMMENT MODERATION ON, FUCKBRICK!!!!!
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Gee, Mule Rider is a tough act to follow.
I think the Republican leadership is from the Corporate wing of the party. They throw a bone to the religious right once in awhile but their goals are for corporate welfare. Huckabee is a populist and doesn't agree with their schemes.
If Huckabee's campaign in a general election in 2012 was anything like his primary bid, I guarantee he'd lose in a landslide.
He sucked up to Chuck "Future First President of Texas" Norris. He based his entire primary campaign on the belief that the only people who vote in republican primary elections anymore are evangelicals. And he lost.
I think the only reason Huckabee does better than other Republicans in this poll is because he was such a long shot that nobody paid close attention to him when he was actually making campaign promises.
My worst nightmare: Huckabee at the GOP nominee. Not because he might win - he doesn't stand a chance - but because we'd have to hear that absurd "parable of the desks" 100 more times...
FWIW, Limbaugh ;) said early on McCain and Huckabee were unelectable, supposedly he thought Romney and Rudy were lol.
and Mule Rider, psychiatric care is available, it will do you no good, but it is available ...
take care, blessings
Fuck you shiloh....no, literally, FUCK YOU!!!
The only help I need is to jam it in your fat, hairy cunt. You know you got one. Then I'll jam it in your big, nasty ass....let me stick it in that big ol' nasty pussy and shake it around a bit.
Then let me shoot my man goo all on your nice firm tits. I'll give you that pearl necklace you've always wanted. Then I'll shit on your chest, leaving you a cleveland steamer. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!
I understand Mule Rider's opinion on comment moderation, but it's times like that that I thank God for Greasemonkey and 538TrollRemover.
Under ordinary circumstances, I would have been inclined to agree with Geoff Johnson: Huck's lack of conservative economic credentials would eliminate him once the Republican 2012 field thins after the first few primaries.
However, if you had asked me in June '08 whether the GOP would put up a candidate who was facing ethical charges, had no national or foreign policy knowledge (let alone credentials), and couldn't give a decent interview, I would have said no way to that, too. I won't make that mistake again - I'm ruling no one out at this point.
Actually, I'll spill the beans on Nate. I used to be his college roommate. I came home one day and caught him fucking our suitemate in the ass. Pure, unadultered ass-fucking. I never forgave Nate since that day. He was such a smart-ass prick in college, and I was far superior intellectually. But that motherfucker got all the breaks. Now he's a fucking multi-millionaire geek and poker player while I'm managing a car wash outside of Indy. That's not fucking fair, and that faggot bitch ass-fucking motherfucker owes me one. I'm going to out his gay ass to everybody.
And fuck you other nimrods on here who try and shout me down. I'll come unhinged. I'll hunt you down. I'll eat your fucking organs. BWAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!!!!
Mule Ride us a very clever troll, I believe...
Clever...how can we in the online community deal with...clever??
This poll shows more proof that the Obama hatewagon is DEAD WRONG. I can't wait to see their reaction ond the 7th of November.
As i have said before if i had to bet i would guess Newt Gingrich will get the nomination in 2012.
The religious right is the only thing Huckabee really has going for him. Fisicial conservatives hate him and neocons would rather have Gingrich or maybe Romney. The religious right is only getting smaller in numbers and its not enough to win the nomination.
Republicans wont nominate palin.....i dont think they are THAT stupid. She'll get beat down in the primary hard...winning alaska and thats about it.
Romney is seen by most right wingers as nothing more than a flip flopping mormon. (In the primary) He will win MA, MI and the mormon belt states and then drop out.
Jindal is too green and young for the republican's taste. He could however get the nomination in 2016, 2020, or even beyond that (hes only 37).
Newt gingrich might not be adored by the religious right...but fisical conservatives and neocons will flock to him. He's got some serious baggage but I think he's got a 50 percent chance at getting the nomination. And the way hes been in the news so much all of the sudden because hes been criticizing every little thing Obama does leads me to belive he is CERTAIN to run. If Gingrich does not run i will eat my hat.
One person everyone is forgetting about is Tim Pawlenty, I would say hes got the 2nd best shot at getting the republican nomination. Hes a fresh face but not TOO fresh and I cant see how fisical conservatives or social conservatives could dislike him.
I'm not just clever. I'm a fuckin' genius. I deserve more. I'm the shit!
Just a thought, but isn't it entirely possible that Huckabee's high placement in the poll is a result of minimal news coverage? I mean, he does a better job than most prominent Republicans of coming across reasonable and mainstream. But I still think that given the kind of exposure others possibles have gotten, many of the marginal people may learn to dislike him as well.
@ e3323:
There are definitely reasons why it would make sense for it to be Gingrich, but I just can't help feeling that that simply won't happen. Nothing tangible I can point to, but the guy does have baggage, no doubt including some we've never even heard about. Something will come along that will derail him.
Pawlenty would be a possibility but he has no natural constituency right now, and no one is really excited about him.
I think 2012 will be a lot like 2008 for the GOP - i.e. the nominee will essentially be the last man (or woman) standing in a weak field, the only person who was not completely rejected by some element of the party faithful.
I never would have guessed this a year ago, but at this point I'd have my money on Romney. He'll have tons of money, lots of social conservatives do like him (for whatever reason), he keeps winning the straw poll at CPAC, and I think his "I was a businessman" speech will play well with GOP voters circa 2012. He also can sell himself as a moderate in the generals if he wants to, and a lot of the less-suicidal/more savvy Republicans will like that about him. I think he's probably their best chance.
I don't care what's going on in Pakistan right now or who's about to take it over - yes, even you Usama bin Obama...I mean, Laden - seriously, though, I don't care that the Paki gov't is about to fail and give in to the Taliban....Obama better not do shit about it for all the shit he talked about warfare and peace. He's a liberal peace activist and I'll think of him as nothing more than a nigger-ass gutless war-mongering punk if he defies his own words and gets involved in Pakistan. Especially after that soaring fucking speech from 2004 repudiating Shrub's idiocy in Iraq. Obama is a fucking loser.
Somebody talk to me. I seek validation. I seek pussy. I seek friends. I need ot lash out. My life is ruined. I've been yelling my whole life and no one is listening. Whyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyyy???!!!
I'll have to hurt someone to get attention. I'll make the news alright. I'll just flat out beat somebody to death!!!
Friday is morning and Ohio trains are sunny, talking about taking notes from my piano teacher. I was reading a lantern under the shade of a pineapple, but it doesn't feel like tonsils are biting down on parades in the next millenia.
Where is the dog theater when my friend Joe gives $2 for a lemonade in downtown yesterday? My thoughts lie in roses but Saturday must stink and the blender used to make dinner is howling at the sundae I took along in the backseat of a lard bucket.
The matchup among indies is quite interesting:
Obama 54%
Newt 38% (-16)
Obama 53%
Huck 37% (-16)
Obama 51%
Palin 44% (-7)
Obama 52%
Mitt 35% (-17)
Even more interesting is the matchup among moderates:
Obama 69%
Newt 23% (-46)
Obama 69%
Huck 26% (-43)
Obama 65%
Palin 30% (-35)
Obama 63%
Mitt 26% (-37)
The hilarious thing here is that people are so quick to discount a 40/33/27 D/R/I split when those numbers are the most consistent with what actually occurred on November 4th. And yet the sheep are willing to accept the incredible split that AP showed today in its poll. Or the Newsweek split. Or are willing to accept Pew despite the fact that it showed a 15-point lead among likely voters for Obama in the last week of Octobe and a full three days later, the lead Obama had according to Pew was 6. Or are willing to accept Kos/Research 2K even though it showed Obama with a 16 point lead at one point in October.
Yet, Rasmussen is not to be trusted despite his record the last two presidential elections. Get a clue guys, if you want to believe that less than 25% of the country consider themselves Republicans or that Democrats hold a 15-20% edge over Republicans among likely voters, then go ahead and believe that in spite of the exit poll, where actual voters answered questions.
It's funny that some people are focusing on the 41% conservative number and trying to discount that and yet the same people are willing to accept a 15-20% gap between Republicans and Democrats.
Who knows? Perhaps more liberals now consider themselves moderates and more moderates consider themselves conservatives. This scenario doesn't seem any less likely than less than 25% of the country considering themselves Republicans or a 15-20% gap between Republicans and Democrats.
TommyReport,
You're nothing but a rightwing neocon trying to shove religion, massive defense spending and limitless tax cuts down our throats. You are irrelevant. I'd kick your ass. I will kick your ass. Find me. I'll fuck you up.
Mule:
You sound like a good utilitarian. Go ahead and end it for the sake of society.
Off Topic
Latest vote totals from NY-20:
Murphy: 80368
Tedisco: 79967
Murphy now leads by 401 votes!
Source: New York State Board of Elections, 3:30 pm, 4/23/2009
http://www.elections.state.ny.us/NYSBOE/Elections/2009/Special/20thCDCombinedResults04232009.pdf
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Huckabee is a scumbag. He deftly maneuvered media event that suggested that Obama was Muslim and Mormonism was in fact a sort of cult.
That said, I'd be glad to see him as the Republican nominee. He would be sliced, diced, and put on ice.
The approval numbers are no surprise if PPP is, like Rasmussen, doing likely voter filtering. Likely voter means nothing right now and won't mean anything (except in New Jersey, New York City and Virginia) until sometime next year.
Why Huckabee? If you believe, as I do, that all of this polling has no value beyond confirming the obvious, Obama is popular and the GOP is not, it's most likely because his identification with what's most unpopular (Style?) isn't quite as great as it is for the others.
Also, Huckabee last year became the anti-Romney (which was what it was all about) in Iowa and had very bad luck in South Carolina where bad weather and the most irrational primary campaign by a candidate with a chance of getting the nomination in recent history (Fred Thompson) combined to severely hurt whatever small chance he had of wresting the nomination away from the "friend" his candidacy most helped in the crucial period leading up to Florida.
".....he's every bit as likely to become President someday as someone like Palin."
Precisely!
0.00%!!!!
I think its a bit of a chicken-egg thing. To most voters who don't obsess over politics 24/7, he probably has an image of an affable, decent guy. Not necessarily a moderate, but at least not an asshole. The lack of news about him is likely because he's not giving the media easy gossip to report the way Romney or Palin do. Therefore he does little to change the perception most folks have of him as vaguely likable.
The media is generally lazy and looking for one of two very simple storylines - "Person X said something snarky about Obama, or "Could Person Y be the savior of the GOP?" He seems to be avoiding X, and currently the media does not see him as Y, although that could change at some point which would lead to a series of honeymoon stories and a bump in his poll numbers, followed by a series of more in-depth stories and a slide in his numbers, followed by the media ignoring him. You know, like Wes Clark or Bobby Jindal.
Huckabee is not as well known as the others, this is certainly an advantage. Voters who are yet to know a candidate are likely to hold a positive view (Innocent until proven guilty is deeply ingrained in us). Huckabee's worst enemy is time, if he didn't win an election in the past, he is less likely to win one in a more progressive and liberal future.
Mule Rider give us a kiss!
take care, blessings
Newt? People actually take Newt seriously? Oh well...
This is all nice to contemplate: Though a nice guy, Huckabee has zero personality (his show, I decided to check out once- painful- stay outta showbiz, Mike) and ideas just loony enough to drive away most rational people.
It's like the GOP is already in agony over 2012 because there is NO fresh blood, NO fresh ideas, NO anything to stand on. They're on their way to fast becoming a regional party. If Romney, Palin, Jindal, and Huckabee are the best they can do, geeze, Pawlenty I cannot see as someone taking a serious knock at BHO either. Just no gumption or fire in the party. And for good reason. Bush spewed all their energy to hell like frat kid on a binge with his buddies and Cheney destroyed any semblance of respectability for them.
I would go on to say it serves them right, yet I say this really from a less judgmental position. BushCO shot the wad. The party has no libido, no oomph, no vision, nothing, nada, just an empty brand that Dick Morris and Glen Beck and the rest of the conservative media try to prop up like a dead parrot. You look at the eyes of Boehner and the other GOP elected officials, and you see nothing but a distant look of shock, a tired befuddlement saying "how the fuck did we get here?"
Kind of sad, yet kind of justice served.
I think people take Newt seriously because, well who else is there? Why take Newt less seriously than a one term governor of 'Taxachusettes' (at least from a Republican pov). My own personal guess is that Gingrich could be a big player in 2012 if he wants to be. If all he wants is plump up his name a bit to get a bigger fee on the speaking circuit and the morning show circuit, then he is going about it the right way however. He is a smart guy, despicable but smart.
So, did the mothership pick Mule Rider up and take him back to Alpha Centauri?
It seems the GOP primary will once again be a battle of political dwarves. It's a weak field. Sanford, Thune or Huntsman wouldn't change that either, I dare say.
As for Huckabee's relatively good polling, well, he's not being scrutinised and his numbers are hence good. Right now, he's got his folksy charm working for him without his baggage and ideology being scrutinised.
BTW, what is he up to right now? Does he do the conservative speaking circuit bigtime? What about his PAC? What about his presence in IA and SC? Or is he just doing his Fox show?
In any case, the key battle of the next few years seems to me over how progressive the Obama presidency will be. I'm rooting for more Krugman and less Geithner.
The whole GOP thingie is a total sideshow. They're in the political wilderness and won't be nationally competitive for years to come given their obsolete and in many respects nasty ideological zealotry.
Only if they ever manage to refashion their party as the British Tories have with David Cameron (after a decade in the political wilderness), will they ever have a chance. However, given the pretty rabid nature of the GOP base (see those tea parties!), I just don't see 'em embracing an American David Cameron.
Given that, I could see the GOP being displaced by a moderate centre-right party (think Bloomberg, Schwarzenegger, Powell spectrum).
Gingrich: I think he cultivates these presidential rumours to up his brand and keep the buzz going. But I have a hard time seeing him actually wanting to run.
He's just a non-starter for a general election.
Huckabee is a scumbag. He deftly maneuvered media event that suggested that Obama was Muslim and Mormonism was in fact a sort of cult..
Well,he got one out of two right.
Huckabee isn't getting more respect from the Republicans themselves because he believes in what he says. The Evangelicals never had real power within the GOP. They were used whenever the economic agenda of the GOP was unpopular. Huckabee would change that, because he knows his way around and would not rely on handlers like Sarah Palin did. Also, just imagine if the Bible really served as an economic model.. just remember that 'it is easier for a camel to go through the eye of a needle than for a rich man to enter the kingdom of God' - that's basically socialism. The whole Grover-Norquist-taxes-are-too-high people could go home.
It's probably not necessary to call his positions 'unorthodox' - with quotation marks, no, he is really not following the Republican orthodoxy, that's what their positions are at the moment. Or can you tell me a substantial policy difference between Palin, Gingrich, Sanford, Romney or any other potential conservative candidate? It's all just a different packaging, a different biographical narrative. Huckabee's flat-tax proposal, no matter how problematic it is, was the only individual economic position of the Republican primaries I can think of.
And Huckabee is one of the most likable guys of the GOP. One can disagree with him without disliking him.
I think James is right. Huckabee is keeping low while the others parade around mocking Obama after having made the mess he's cleaning up in the first place: that automatically makes him more appealing, and he has a genial persona. On the other hand, whether he would be a good candidate is an entirely different matter: some of his views are as nutty as those of Palin.
If you look where the narrowest margins of votes were in 2008, then 2012 is going to be fought on the periphery and borders: Montana, North and South Dakota, South Carolina, Georgia, Texas, Arizona and maybe even Louisiana for the Dems; Minnesota, Virginia, North Carolina, Florida, and New Mexico for the Republicans. Sure the old battleground rustbelt will still be there and the Republicans will focus on Indiana and the Dems on Missouri, but the point is that the next election will be very different from the last three, and the political issues that matter in those states will also be different: Obama changed the political map. What the Republicans have to find is someone who can fight that election, otherwise they will be reduced to a rump. Apart from the deep south, I'm not sure Huckabee is the one.
@Greg F...
Maybe having his own show is hurting him. How many people take television personalities seriously enough to vote for them?
About 3-600 more than will vote for a drifting political opportunist with good hair and a buttload of ethical baggage.
At least in Minnesota.
Dang, I downloaded 538TrollRemover awhile ago, but I seem to have lost its handle. Could someone please point me to a DL and instructions on how to use it? You-know-who is just taking up too much screen space.
@Mike in Maryland...
Off Topic
Latest vote totals from NY-20:
Murphy: 80368
Tedisco: 79967
Murphy now leads by 401 votes!
This is GREAT NEWS! For MICHAEL STEELE!!
When I discovered Sarah Palin's views after she got the VP nomination last year, my first thought was, "She's Mike Huckabee in a skirt!"
After watching Huckabee on his TV show, I now think he is more like "Sarah Palin wearing pants!"
Pathetic showing by Obama. Pretty much proves generic GOP is comeptitive against him
After he is done effing up the economy, he too will be done.
We will be well rid of Obama and his collectivist ideas.
PeteKent01 (follow me on twitter)
Ok here is Why Huckabee doesn't get more respect from the Rs. He totally pissed off most Rs the way he handled his campaign.
He stayed in and kept fighting needlessly stirring up division for no reason. This is part of the reason why Palin had to be picked. If Huckabee would have bowed out when Romney did things would be much better for him. He doesn't stand a chance in 2012. Besides most of those people are in Palins camp now but he ruined his chanced by acting like a whiny liemlight hogging kid and not folding earlier in 2008.
"Pretty much proves generic GOP is comeptitive against him"
Losing by 7 (At best!) isn't competitive. At the Presidential level, it's a solid ass-kicking (See: 1988 2008). And that's BEFORE the camapign machinery (which is proven to be good for Obama and rather lacking for the others) is activated.
But I suppose nobody's buying your spin anyway, so I don't really know why I got involved...
Colby please allow the wingnuts ie PK their spin. It's all they got ...
take care, blessings
@TommyReport:
The party ID and race splits are exceptionally close to what we saw in the election. However the 18-30 group is 3% lower and the 30-44 group is 2% lower. The L-M-C rate is 15-45-41 in the poll and was 22-44-34 in the election. So this is a modestly older and more culturally conservative group than actually voted in 2008. My personal suspicion is that all of those young and urban liberal voters who were overly enthusiastic about dealing with pollsters during election season are now back to ignoring pollsters, but who knows?
Shift 3 points to Obama's column to reflect these differences and it's 52-39 in the best R matchup. I don't view that as particularly good news for Republicans.
@ Matt
http://userscripts.org/scripts/show/43818
Colby--Onama just won by 7% against a real life candidate! He should be doing much better than that afterall he all he has done to restore America both home and abroad.
When all the tweeners can't find jobs and unemployment hangs around in the double or low single digits the people will line up to vote this jackass out!
petekent01 (on twitter)
The Huckster, as he's known in Arkansas, always had a tendency to say outrageous stuff. He governed moderately, though, and with a Democratic legislature. Under his watch, the state implemented some of the most comprehensive school legislation in the nation. The state now ranks highly in its statewide test and other measures. Hopefully the scores will improve and we'll no longer say "Thank God for Mississippi." The school reforms came on the back of a State Supreme Court ruling, known as the Lake View Case 'round these parts. Huck also was against many right wingers favoring anti-immigration laws. I'm more on the liberal side of things, but the prospect of Huckabee as president doesn't scare me. His track record as governor shows that he's more pragmatic than his rhetoric.
Are we talking about the same Huckabee? There's a facebook group to the effect of "I'm moving to Australia of Huckabee is elected president."
He's also the candidate who fried squirrel with a popcorn popper.People don't know him all that well at this point. Few probably know about his statement that "I feel homosexuality is an aberrant, unnatural, and sinful lifestyle, and we now know it can pose a dangerous public health risk."
Palin is much more of a known quantity than he is, and people may "like what they've heard" but not know enough about him one way or the other.
Color me also more than slightly dubious about how meaningful *any* poll is taken 4 years out from an election.
"Onama just won by 7% against a real life candidate!"
Yes, that's exactly my point (I even referenced the election)- Obama won by 7, and it was a decisive win, even Steve Schmidt is saying it wasn't competitive.
I'm glad you see my point- I knew you couldn't possibly believe the nonsense you first posted (Especially after seeing those Indy numbers! Yowch!)
Huckabee is way too moderate to be nominated by the Republicans. I think the GOP is still going to be in self-destruct mode in 2010 and 2012 (I think we will make gains in the House and Senate in 2010 and hold or stay even in 2012).
They have at least 5 more years before they pull their **** together and figure out where their ass ends and their head begins.
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