Races are ranked in order of their likelihood of changing parties by November 2010, accounting for all factors such as potential retirements, primary challenges, and so forth.
Likelihood of party switch has increased since last month's rankings.
Likelihood of party switch has decreased since last month.
1. New Hampshire (R-Open)
New Hampshire rotates back into the top spot that it previously occupied in February, as 1st District Congresswoman Carol Shea-Porter now says she won't run for the seat, which leaves her colleague from the 2nd District, Paul Hodes, with an unobstructed path to the Democratic nomination. Meanwhile, an ARG poll (yes, it's ARG) gives Hodes a 6-point lead over former Senator John Sununu, who has yet to declare his interest in the race. This race won't be any cakewalk, but the fundamentals -- open seat in an Obama state where the Democratic nominee has a big head start -- bode well for Team Blue.
2. Pennsylvania (R-Specter)
There's been some contradictory polling in Pennsylvania, with Quinnipiac placing conservative challenger Pat Toomey, who would be a heavy underdog in the general election, 14 points ahead of Arlen Specter. Franklin and Marshall, meanwhile, gives Specter a 15-point lead. I don't know that there's any a priori way to say which poll is correct. Polling primaries is intrinsically pretty difficult, and polling races more than a year in advance is intrinsically pretty difficult, which means that polling primaries a year in advance is really difficult. If you simply average the two numbers, you get the Republican primary being a toss-up. Each of these polls, it should be noted, were taken before Specter's intention to vote against the Employee Free Choice Act became known to voters, a position which will presumably help him the primaries while probably harming him with Pennsylvania's fairly union-friendly general electorate.
Let's do some fuzzy math here. Assume that there is a 80 percent chance that Specter's health is such that he chooses to run for re-election. If Specter runs for re-election, there is a50 percent chance that he survives the primary. If he survives the primary, there is a 80 percent chance that he wins the general election, where the Democratic opposition has been a bit disorganized. If he loses the primary, however, or chooses not to run, the Republican nominee (presumably Toomey) will probably only have about a 10 percent chance of retaining the seat for the Republicans. Run all the numbers, and that yields a 62 percent chance that the Democrats pick up the seat. Granted, it's fairly dubious to imply any sort of precision when we're dealing with guesstimates like these. But my impression is that the Democrats' odds in New Hampshire, with Hodes now having the primary field to himself, are a just a touch better than that. Also, Specter's nay vote on EFCA probably eliminates the chances of the Democrats picking this seat up through a party switch.
3. Missouri (R-Open)
I think we can characterize Robin Carnahan as the slight favorite when even Republican internal polling shows her with a small lead over the two most likely Republican opponents.
4. Kentucky (R-Bunning)
The next two races -- Connecticut and Kentucky -- have many surface similarities, with an extremely unpopular incumbent in what would ordinarily be considered a safe seat for their respective parties. I'm placing Jim Bunning slightly ahead because his senility is a more intractable issue than Dodd's real and alleged misjudgments in the financial sector, which may blow over at least to some extent if the economy improves. Bunning also has a strong opponent in the form of Democratic Attorney General Jack Conway, who just declared for the race; Conway is one of several Democrats with a lead on Bunning in a new set of PPP polling (.pdf). Bunning, meanwhile, is having an awful time trying to raise money, something less likely to be a problem for Dodd, who is generally a superior fundraiser. And although a primary challenge to Bunning is possible, and perhaps even likely, PPP and Research 2000 polling do not show alternative Republican candidates doing particularly better.
5. Connecticut (D-Dodd)
That is not to suggest, however, that Democrats ought to feel much comfort in Connecticut, not when a Quinnipiac poll puts Dodd 16 (!) points behind GOP challenger Rob Simmons. Still, while I don't doubt that Dodd would lose an election held today, he has a lot of time to regain his footing, whereas Bunning's numbers have been bad for years. The other good news for Democrats is that they now have a likely primary challenger in Roger Pearson. Pearson, a former selectman from Greenwich, is a virtual unknown to most Connecticutians, but a generic Democrat is probably all it takes to hold the seat.
6. Ohio (R-Open)
Lieutenant Governor Lee Fisher raised a cool $1 million dollars last quarter, but there are no signs of détente with Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner, his primary primary opponent, whereas Rob Portman should cruise to the Republican nomination.
7. Florida (R-Open)
Florida has been much quieter than the other races, although Kendrick Meek, who is probably the leading Democratic candidate, had a rather strong fundraising quarter. We still need to hedge a bit, however, until we know whether Charlie Crist will enter the race, a contingency that I remain skeptical of, but which would bump this race's ranking well into the double digits.
8. North Carolina (R-Burr)
Recruiting in North Carolina isn't important just for Mike Krzyzewski and Roy Williams; it's important for the Democrats too. A new Civitas poll puts Republican Richard Burr, who might be the least-recognized incumbent in the country, behind Democratic Attorney General Roy Cooper, who is well known for his intervention in the Duke lacrosse scandal. Cooper, however, has yet to declare for the race, and all other prospective Democratic candidates have trailed Burr in the polling.
9. Nevada (D-Reid)
I'm demoting this race slightly on the no-news-is-good-news principle, as Harry Reid has managed to stay somewhat out of the headlines (is Dodd's trauma Reid's gain?), whereas meanwhile the Republicans have gotten no closer to selecting a challenger. Reid is also aided by the fact that Governor Jim Gibbons is at least as unpopular as he is and is already drawing Republican primary heat that could conceivably otherwise have wound up in the Senate contest.
10. Colorado (D-Bennet)
This may sound a bit subjective, but pseudo-incumbent Michael Bennet seems awfully unsure of himself, waffling on EFCA and angering his party base by joining the Blue Dog Congress. Although Colorado is a purple state, it is not a moderate state in the same way that, say, Ohio is. Rather, it contains roughly equal numbers of rather progressive Democrats and rather conservative Republicans. Bennet risks squeezing himself by being too far to the right of the primary electorate, while still being too far to the left to placate religious conservatives in Colorado Springs and Grand Junction. Moreover, as he's never run for public office before, there is no guarantee that he'll prove to be a competent candidate. Colorado is the one state, aside from Connecticut, where Democrats could potentially improve their lot with a primary challenge.
11. Illinois (D-Burris)
Burris seems to have become slightly less radioactive over the past month. Still, the clear and present danger for Democrats is that he emerges victorious with a narrow plurality of the vote in a four- or five-way contested primary. On this front, there are some small nuggets of good news for the Democrats: Alexi Giannoulis had a pretty good fundraising month, possibly giving him a leg up on the field, whereas Lisa Madigan has her sights set on Springfield rather than Washington.
12. Delaware (D-Open)
Possible Republican nominee (and current Congressman) Mike Castle has an 8-point lead over probable Democratic nominee Beau Biden. To this point, there have been no tangible signs that Castle is interested in the race, and Biden's approval ratings in the same poll were solid, but this is nevertheless a bit of a sleeper.
13. Texas (R-Open?)
Kay Bailey Hutchison's probable gubernatorial challenge to Rick Perry, which could make for a quite interesting Senate contest, remains the (ahem!) worst-kept secret in electoral politics today.
14. Louisiana (R-Vitter)
David Vitter won't face a primary challenge from Family Research Council president Tony Perkins, but he'd better hope this doesn't show up on Youtube.
15. Arkansas (D-Lincoln)
A PPP poll has Blanche Lincoln with suddenly very marginal approval ratings. Democrats are fortunate that the Republican bench is rather weak in Arkansas (Mike Huckabee, from what I've been told, is exceptionally unlikely to enter). But if things break badly for Lincoln in this red-trending state, even a generic Republican opponent might become competitive with her.
16. New York (Jr.) (D-Gillibrand)
Kirsten Gillibrand owes David Patterson twice over. Not only did he name her to the Senate, but he made himself so unpopular in the process that most of the serious opposition will probably gravitate toward his race rather than to Gillibrand's. Meanwhile, although Gillibrand's approval ratings are tepid, her fundraising has been hot, hot, hot.
17. Wisconsin (D-Feingold)
18. Iowa (R-Grassley)
19. California (D-Boxer)
The Governator isn't running. Carly Fiornia might, but there's no evidence that she's ever sold particularly well to the public.
20. Arizona (R-McCain)
21. Kansas (R-Open)
22. Oklahoma (R-Coburn)
23. Hawaii (D-Inoyue)
24. Georgia (R-Isakson)
25. Alaska (R-Murkowski)
Sarah Palin and Lisa Murkowski are now BFF, probably ending the Democrats' slim chances of picking up this seat via some sort of mutually-assured destruction.
26. North Dakota (D-Dorgan)
27. Maryland (D-Mikulski)
28. South Carolina (R-DeMint)
29. Washington (D-Murray)
30. South Dakota (R-Thune)
31. Indiana (D-Bayh)
Republicans seem to have no interest whatsoever in challenging Bayh. Hmm, wonder why that is?
32. Vermont (D-Leahy)
33. Oregon (D-Wyden)
34. Alabama (R-Shelby)
35. Utah (R-Bennett)
36. New York (Sr.) (D-Schumer)
37. Idaho (R-Crapo)
4.10.2009
Senate Rankings, April 2009 Edition
@ 8:48 PM
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106 comments
first :)
Info on the MN Senate:
Franken increased his lead by 87 votes and the distribution of the 351 ballots that were counted seemed to skew toward Franken by about 8%.
Would there be value in a primary challenge to Bayh, or would it too likely ensure we would lose the seat if we won the primary?
Dodd is done. Maybe, if Dodd steps aside as Banking Committee Chair and apologizes for his bad things, the voters will forgive him. But, Dodd's arrogance will prevent him from doing such things. Voters just won't forget what Dodd did, but they will forgive if Dodd truly is sorry. Dodd announced his intention to run for reelection, so the Democrat's only hope of holding onto the seat is unseating Dodd in the primary.
Democrats: Contribute all you can to Toomey's campaign in PA. Specter might win against a Democrat--Toomey never could.
Prag,
Can't. Specter is a moderate Republican. I'm an environmentalist, and i can't bring myself to hunt an endangered species like that.
I know this is off-topic--possibly even radioactive--but can anyone publish a timeline of expected developments in the Franken-Coleman election dispute? vote4america helpfully linked some new informatoin, but I have no way of knowing how that fits into the scenario.
Nate? Sean? Anyone? A simple timeline of what's left to happen would be most appreciated.
Awesome, a senate update on my birthday!
I guess the way I read this is that after the top 12 (roughly) the chance of the seat changing parties goes down significantly. Within the top 12 seven are Republicans and 5 are Democrats, though all of the Democrats except Dodd are in the bottom third of the twelve.
If these estimates were to be borne out in the long run (and of course it's quite possible if not likely that things will change, perhaps even significantly), it would seem the smart money is on a 2-4 seat pick-up for the Democrats, probably closer to 2 than 4.
pragmatus
There is a very good series of diaries on kos about franken coleman.
I think Arlen still could switch to indy if Toomey nicks him off.
Dodd can still win, that republican congressman who is running against him made some terrible votes in the house and if Dodd can make the election about those votes then he can win. Tom Harkin was another imcumbent who looked vunerable in 2006 in his reelection race but he managed to do exactly what I said and if he can do it, Dodd can do it.
I just wanted to note that, as a former Hawaii resident and still kama'aina, I can't imagine any situation short of assassination or apocalypse in which Inouye would be replaced as senator. He's been serving since Hawaii GOT senators, and we don't exactly have a record of replacing incumbents. On what basis is he considered more likely than 14 other senators to lose his seat?
Nate, "Inoyue" at #23 should be "Inouye" -
I second the collective motion of everyone on here that you should really invest in a copy-editor. Or read your posts aloud before you post them. I hear that works nicely.
P.S., I'm not the same Simon as posted above - he hijacked my name...
The problem with Hodes in NH is that he has become the same kind of Congressman his predecessor, Bass, was: inaccessible, and in transmit-only mode. I supported him and I am having second thoughts.
1. If Dems don't take NH, you can be sure the scum have at least made some gains. This seat should be a doddle, but Hodes isn't exactly a heavyweight, is he?
2. Who the fuck knows at this point? It seems Cornhole has basically written this seat off, so it's okay to destroy Specter if it means EFCA not getting passed. But Specter is such a weasel bastard, he always manages to pull it out. The no-brainer candidate for the Dems, regardless if they're up against Specter or loopy Toomey, should be Ed Rendell.
3. Robin Carnahan is the best Dems could put up. I was pissed at Missouri for narrowly going to McCain. We're gonna find out just far gone the majority in that state is. I mean, who in their right mind would vote for Roy Blunt ahead of Carnahan?
Toss-up, but it shouldn't be.
4. It's a pity Dems have such a deep bench in Kentucky, they could do with a couple of these potential candidates being from another 2010 state. Bunning will be ousted before Dodd. The scum don't fuck around when it comes throwing one of their own under the bus. Hopefully he remains a stubborn old fart and giftwraps the seat to the Dems. Toss-up.
5. Give Dodd a deadline to improve his situation. If his numbers are still in the shitter, take him out. He's not Ted Kennedy, he's not a significant figure in the party.
One thing is crystal clear... Connecticut want both their senators replaced. There's no reason why one of them has to be a wingnut.
6. My personal preference is Tim Ryan. I don't buy the polling, I reckon Portman is the slight favorite. Why is he trailing anyway?
7. Put simply, Charlie Crist should switch parties. He doesn't look like a RushPiglican, he doesn't sound like a RushPiglican.
8. I feel good about NC, Roy Cooper would be mad not to challenge Burr. It's inconcievable that he won't
9. Harry Reid's son should be in this seat, he's got more balls than his dad. Harry and the Blue Dogs are a drag on the party at this point. They're completely out of touch, and apparently are in a race with the wingnuts to see who can cut their party's throat first.
10. Ritter appointing Michael Bennet was a huge fucking mistake, simple as that. I'm starting to really dislike Bennet, which is some achievement considering I've never heard him speak. But his actions since becoming senator speak for themselves. This seat should be safe, Ritter should have appointed either Hickenlooper or Romanoff. I hope he taken out by one of those chaps.
11. Burris is a lying scumbag piece of shit. Alexi Giannoulis, unlike Michael Bennet and Kirsten Gillibrand, is impressing a lot of people and will win this seat easily. And he's young.
12. The Vice President's son will not be denied by Delaware voters, will he? Sure he's got to earn it, but come on. Like Alexi Giannoulis, he impressed a lot of people last year.
13. As if Texans would ever provide balance to Cornhole. It's still one of the nuttiest states in America.
14. Go Stormy!
15. May as well have the CEO of Walmart in that seat.
Random thoughts...
Bayh is an idiot. You'd think McCain won Indiana by 30 pts the way he's carrying on. The fact that the big O won the state without Bayh on the ticket tells you how dumb Bayh is.
Byron Dorgan lays low, says the right things, supports the president and doesn't shit on the party. Shocker!!! Dorgan is extremely popular... in a RED STATE. Maybe the Blue Dogs should try that.
Bottom line on Gillibrand: Murphy wins, she's safe, NY progressives will give her a chance.
pigeon:
I'm guessing they think Inouye is more likely to retire (or dying, he's pretty old) than anyone below him, which would change the race considerably.
The Texas Senate link is broken, the the most recent PPP Senate poll I could find was
http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/PPP_Release_Texas_225.pdf
I was a subject in what must have been an internal poll for either Sharp or White. After going through a lot of stuff about who I recognized, I was polled on how various "negatives" bothered me. By a ratio of about 3 to 1, the negatives were about White. I can't recall the name of the polling organization. It was three letters that I'd never encountered together. They told me that they couldn't tell me who was paying for that poll. (I asked only after the polling was done.)
I spoke to a human. Initially I thought that their "like voter" test was skimpy, but presumably when it is backed up by my voting history, I guess they can trust me when I say I'm a likely voter.
I frankly was not familiar with many of the people they asked about. Embarrassingly, I didn't recognize Dewhurst, but I suspect that I would have if I'd read the name instead of heard it. I was very familiar with Florence Shapiro as she is my state senator. Presumably that will be either be taken into account or should come out in the statistical wash if their sample is appropriately distributed geographically. I hadn't known that her name had been discussed for US Senate.
Really? Is Beau Biden in danger of losing Delaware? That is shocking to me.
juvanya said...
I think Arlen still could switch to indy if Toomey nicks him off.
Others have mentioned here before that PA election laws do not allow US Senate candidates to pull a "Lieberman". If he loses in the Primary out he's out of the election entirely.
@ Pragmatus
Prag,nothing has happened since Tuesday when Franken increased his lead from 225 to 312.The increase of 87 came from counting the 370-odd absentee ballots allowed by the 3-judge panel.
The 3-judge panel will issue its decision any day now.The decision will also include rulings on the last two undecided Coleman requests:the "missing ballots" question and the "double counted ballots" question.Even if Coleman wins favorable rulings on these two questions (extremely doubtful),Franken will still end up with the lead.The final decision will then be sent to the Minnesota Supreme Court for disposition
Coleman will appeal the decision and request the Minnesota Supreme Court the require the counting of several thousand additional absentee ballots.This should occur no later than the last week of April,hopefully sooner.(Coleman has 10 days to appeal after the report is sent to the Minnesota Supremes.)
The above is what is definitely known.What follows is guesswork.
The majority of the 548 poster comments seem to feel that the Minnesota Court will fairly quickly issue its final ruling favoring Franken.
The real unknown is whether Coleman will appeal to the federal courts,including SCOTUS.Many posters,including me feel that SCOTUS will not accept the case.If so,Franken should be seated sometime in May.This,of course,is the optimistic view.
Opus,
Some of Coleman's strategy and thought process might be discerned by his timing of appeal to the MNSC - if he makes a fast appeal (1-4 days), he thinks he will win; slow appeal (7-9 days), he doesn't think he will win the appeal and/or he doing the bidding of of the GOOPers in just slowing down the process of seating Franken. If he takes the S-L-O-W-E-S-T appeal (all 10 days, and just before the court closes on that 10th day), he's purely doing the bidding of the GOOPers.
At least that's how I see it, subject to change, though.
If I recall correctly, Bill Clinton has organized a fundraiser for Ohio Senate candidate Jennifer Brunner, which is somewhat unfortunate because Lee Fisher is probably a slight favorite on the democratic side - and his fundraising is very good already. I hope the primary doesn't get too divisive.
As a former co-chair of his presidential campaign, Paul Hodes is going to get massive support from Obama. I believe he's already through.
Bunning, well, he's out. There should be a primary challenge, but the question is, would Bunning retire immediately in this case? He's really a blessing to Democrats.
If Cooper runs against Burr, we'll have another likely Democratic takeover. I really, really hope he does, because in this case there would be enough strong local candidates to get the Democrats to 60 even if the national climate is somewhat anti-democratic (Carnahan, Conway, Cooper, Hodes, anti-Toomey vs. Simmons, anti-Reid, anti-Lincoln, anti-Bennet).
Btw, I agree about your assessment of Michael Bennet. He shows signs of being a weak campaigner (apart from being rather dull whenever I see him). His fundraising was quite good however, and for some strange reason, the most promising Republican challengers have all declined to run... maybe there is something we, who are not familiar with Colorado politics, don't know.
And finally, there is a rumor that Bobby Jindal might run against David Vitter. That would be interesting... I would not want to be a governor right now and Jindal cannot out-"conservatize" Mark Sanford... Jindal is out for 2012 and has to go for a place to hide from the economic crisis.
I wouldn't rule out a fight in Alaska. Palin's MO is to buddy up to a future opponent, learn his/her weaknesses and then go in for the kill.
Alex -- Dodd was interviewed on MSNBC and he appologized profusely for his vote on the bonusses. He said he is doing everything he can to fix things. He gave an explanation of how it happened too but it was the appology you were commenting on.
Good analysis on Michael Bennet. You seem to be one of the few who get it, Colorado has no place for moderates.
The democrats in colorado are Denver minorities, the large Latino population, and white liberal suburbs like longmont, boulder, and fort collins. (plus insignificant summit county votes overwhelmingly D)
The republicans are the nativist, tom tancredo crowd. Their votes come from the wealthier southern denver suburbs and the wingnut James Dobson Colorado Springs. Marilyn Musgrave was my congressional representative for 6 years... and she once told me she did not believe in the seperation of church and state.
Michael Bennet is compleletly toast. Running to the middle doesn't work in Colorado. The people who might vote D want more unionization, and the people who vote R won't vote for Bill Ritter's appointed stooge.
Michael Bennet will not survive the 2010 Colorado state caucus system.
Sorry for the off topic post, but Larry Summers should resign over the Merrill Lynch speaking fee he took in November.
http://trueslant.com/matttaibbi/2009/04/09/summers-raked-in-27-million-in-speaking-fees-from-wall-street-44-washingtonpostcom/
@juvanya
"I think Arlen still could switch to indy if Toomey nicks him off."
Legally he can't run as an independent if he loses the primary due to a "sore loser" law in Pennsylvania.
Not that Nate's list isn't useful, but I really think the 2010 mid terms are more than any other in recent times (possibly even 2006) a referendum on the President. I think thats a reason the the CT seat is so high up the list right now, and why moderate Republicans like Specter might come under increasing pressure.
My own guess is that very very few seats will change hands, maybe even none that aren't open seats, and people will defer there judgement on Obama until 2012.
markymark-
2010 is a referendum on the economy, and if it has not turned incumbents of both parties might have problems.
I don't know if I find this website disturbing, hilarious, or both.
http://www.palindeception.com/blog/
I still think Palin will run for Senate in 2010.
Glix - I wasn't just referring to the AIGate, I was also referring to the other things he did from not paying enough attention to the banks as Banking Committee Chair, moving to Iowa, getting an Ireland cottage from a criminal pardoned by Bill Clinton to being secretive about a sweetheart deal he took from Countrywide (he still didn't release all of his mortgage records despite promising to do so almost a year ago). Dodd still seems defensive on these moves.
@justsomeguy:
I actually linked to the website but I must admit that after about the fifth time I came across "The National Inquirer reported", I had to stop reading.
@markymark:
I double doubt any voters will defer judgment in 2010, and I don't think the status quo will hold either.
The voters are angry now and will be angry then, they want to throw the bums out and don't care if the bums are Democrats or Republicans.
It all will depend on how the public defines "bums" in 2010. At the moment, justsomeguy has it right, it looks like the economy. If it is improved, Republicans are still in trouble for opposing everything and siding with tax cuts for the rich.
If it is worse, Democrats (like Dodd) are in trouble.
Well, try the real website GROG, with pictures and video of Palin literally DAYS before giving birth - and no baby bump! Maybe her African witch doctor was able to do this for her...
http://www.palindeception.com/
So I take it nobody's worried about the Delaware seat then?
@Pigeon: Anyone who's been a Senator ever since Hawaii has been a state is very old.
Inouye is a distinguished man and Senator, and he'll be 86 years old in November 2010.
Ernie,
Personally if my 'referendum on Obama' theory holds (JSG- obviously most of the referendum will take place around the economy!) then I would be very worried about Delaware. I think beating the veeps son is certainly the kind of symbolic victory the GOP could push for.
I think that there are some circumstances that lead to the idea that people might hold back on making 2010 a 'change' election. One thing is that there has already been 2 succesive 'change' elections now, and its tough to keep voting for change without giving the people you vote in a chance. The other thing, though related, is the idea that Obama has taken over in as beig a crisis as the nation has faced short of war, for many generations. I think people may be more patient with him in those circumstances. I think more than usual, 2010 might be a time when it isn't such a bad thing to be an incumbent.
I think Dodd's(CT) vulnerability is too overrated. - Dodd's poor poll numbers have more to do with his role in the AIG CEO Bonus scandal and Countrywide Mortgage- He is being unfairly blamed for the economic mess as Chair of Senate Banking committee. rather than his erratic behavior or political ideology. Dodd can recover depending on how popular Barack Obama is during the 2010 Midterm elections. I would rank CT at number 7- ahead of FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)- FL is less likely to switch parties- If popular Governor Charlie Crist runs- Seat remains Republican but if Crist does not run- The race is a tossup.
NC(Burr-R)- should be ranked number 6. Burr is a backbencher conservative Republican ideologue likely to face a top tier Democratic challenger- three term AG Roy Cooper.
PA(Specter-R)-should be ranked number 5. If Specter wins the Republican primary- he wins in the general election. If Specter loses in the primary- Democrats are favored to pick up the PA US Senate Seat. Specter has a 50-50 chance of winning the Republican primary.
OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- should be ranked at number 4- Democrats have a competitive primary between two top tier ambitious Statewide elected officials running - Lt Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner- who ever wins the Democratic nomination is favored to defeat Republican frontrunner ex US Congressman and Bush US Trade Rep and OMB director Rob Portman- The Mark Kennedy of 2010- An overrated US Senate candidate who turned out to be a disaster.
KY(Bunning-R)-should be ranked number 3- Democratic candidates for the KY US Senate Race are two ambitious statewide elected officials- LT Governor Dan Mongiaro and Attorney General Jack Conway. The Republican Incumbent (Bunning)-is a Senile- Conservative Republican Ideologue Nutcase.
Happy Easter, everybody!
Still think fundamentalist christianity makes you a better person or teaches kids 'morality'?
Looking at the 1994 US Senate Election cycle- most of the seats Republicans picked up were open seats.
AZ(OPEN-Deconcini-D)- Deconcini was one of the Keating 5 US Senators- had he ran for re-election- He would have lost re-election.
ME(OPEN-Mitchell-D)- The outgoing Democratic Senate Majority Leader would have been favored to win re-election had he ran again.
MI(OPEN-Reigle-D)- Another Democratic Senator involved in the Keating 5 Scandal. Reigle woul have lost re-election had he ran again.
OH(OPEN-Metzenbaum-D)- Metzenbaum was an elder statesman in the Democratic party- He would have won re-election had he decided to run again.
I think you are wrong about Colorado and Bennet.
He has raised a significant amount of money.
The Repubs are becoming weaker by the day here.
He is a "nice" guy.
He is gaining name recognition.
Still think fundamentalist christianity makes you a better person or teaches kids 'morality'?
Careful, lest the neo-con trolls point to the bad behavior of a gay person and try to transfer it on to you.
Dodd said he wants to pass a new bill that would freeze the rates credit card companies can charge on you if the bill is late. It seems very likely it would pass and it could greatly increase Dodd's approval.
I think Specter will win a Republican primary. Pennsylvania Republicans may be extremely conservative but they're not stupid. They know Specter is the best they can hope for. I expect Specter would get at least 60% in a 2010 Specter-Toomey primary.
So I don't think Pennsylvania should be ranked #2. I think Ohio and Florida should be ranked higher because Democrats have the better candidates in those 2 states unless Charlie Crist runs for Senate.
Staler Waldorf, earth to Statler! Allowing Warren to speak at the inauguration is turning out to be genius, Warren now seems to be FOR gay marriage!
http://washingtontimes.com/news/2009/apr/11/warren-waver-stuns-leaders/?xid=rss-page
Obama, the political genius, wins again.
This is way off topic but funny and highly ironic, Drudge on top 50 out.com
IF we were to categorize each US Senate Race. Republican side.
(FL,MO,NH,and OH)are OPEN Republican Held Senate Seats in battleground states which Obama won or narrowly lost.
FL- The 800lb gorilla is on the Republican side- Governor Charlie Crist- If Crist runs- The seat stays Republican. Otherwise-the race is a tossup.
MO- The Democrats have a stronger candidate- Secretary of State Robin Carnahan- household name- Daughter of the late popular former Governor Mel Carnahan. The Republicans have the weak controversial candidate- ex US House Republican Whip Roy Blunt- father of unpopular former Governor Matt Blunt and Friend of Tom Delay.
NH- Democrats have a top tier candidate- US Rep Paul Hodes. Republican candidates are either ex Governor Steve Merrill who has not been on a candidate for any political office since 1994. NH became more Democratic since Merrill left office. ex US Senator John Sununu-lost re-election for the other US Senate seat in 2008. Charlie Bass- ex US House member who lost re-election in 2006 to Paul Hodes.
OH- Democrats have two top tier candidates - both ambitious statewide elected officials- Lt Governor Lee Fisher- an ally of popular Governor Ted Strickland and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner- protege of US Senator Sherrod Brown. both are favored to defeat ex US Rep and Bush US Trade Rep and OMB Director Robert Portman.
KS is an open Republican seat in a red state but Democrats don't have any top tier candidates for this seat- Republicans have two top tier candidates US Rep Jerry Moran and US Rep Todd Tiahrt. Republicans will hold on to the OPEN KS US Senate seat vacated by future Governor Sam Brownback.
PA- Republican incumbent Specter is facing a tough primary opposition against a Conservative former US Congressman Pat Toomey who almost defeated Specter 6 years ago. If Specter loses in the Primary- Democrats have a excellent shot at picking up the PA US Senate seat.
KY- Republican imcumbent Jim Bunning is an Erratic Senile Conservative Republican ideologue- who barely won all of his US Senate Races in neutral or pro GOP years. The leading Democratic candidates to unseat Bunning are two ambitiuous Statewide elected officials- Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo who narrowly lost to Bunning in 2004 when Mongiardo was an unknown state legislator and Attorney General Jack Conway- elected KYAG in 2007 with more than 60% of the popular vote. Bunning is pretty much toast. He is in the Santorum-PA,and Burns-MT category.
NC-Republican incumbent- Richard Burr is a freshman back bench Republican incumbent US Senator who narrowly won 6 years ago against a weak Democratic candidate- ex Clinton WH chief of staff Erskine Bowles. NC's other Republican US Senator Liddy Dole lost to an unknown state legislature Kay Hagan by a wide margin. IF Burr faces a top tier Democratic challenger like AG Roy Cooper- Burr definetly becomes a one termer. If Burr faces a second or third tier Democratic challenger like State Senator Jim Neal- It will take a Macaca moment to unseat Richard Burr.
LA,OK,and SC- The Republican incumbents are first term Republican US Senators from Red States who are Conservative wingnuts- The Republican incumbent in LA is the somewhat vulnerable because of a sex scandal. These are races where a Macaca Moment is likely to occur.
AK- Republican incumbent Lisa Murkowski is safe due to a lack of Democratic opposition.
GA- Republican incumbent Johnny Isakson is safe due to a lack of Democratic opposition.
SD- Republican incumbent John Thune is safe due to a lack of Democratic opposition.
AL,AZ,and IA- Republican incumbents are elder statesman US Senators running for re-election. Those race will become a tossup or lean takeover if Shelby-AL,McCain-AZ,or Grassley-IA decided to retire.
ID and UT are shoe ins for the Republican incumbent.
Drudge is gay? That is just mind bendingly strange...
Categorizing US Senate Races- Democratic US Senate Seats.
CO,DE,IL,and NY- Incumbent Democratic US Senators were appointment. The appointed Democratic incumbent US Senator from DE(Ted Kaufman)is retiring. The likely Democratic nominee for the DE US Senate seat is AG Beau Biden- son for VP Joe BIden. The only Republican who make DE a tossup is US Rep and ex Governor Mike Castle- DE-Safe DEM hold.
The appointed Democratic incumbent US Senator in IL(Roland Burris)-is either going to retire or lose in the primary to IL Treasurer and protege of President Barack Obama- Alexi Giannoulias who is strongly favored to win in the November general election.
Appointed Democratic US Senators from CO(Bennet-D) and NY(Gillibrand-D) are running again in 2010- Both are favored to win in the Democratic primary and in the general election.
CT and NV- Democratic incumbent US Senators Dodd(CT) and Reid(NV)are high profiled Democratic US Senators who are being tied with the public disapproval of Congress. Dodd(CT)is unpopular because of the AIG bonus scandal and his role as the Countrywide Mortgage scandal. Republican challenger in CT- ex US Rep Rob Simmons- is a partisan Republican former US Congressman. This is similar to the 1994 NY Governors race between Mario Cuomo and George Pataki.
Reid(NV)-is unpopular in his homestate but Republican Party in NV is also unpopular- Lt Governor Brian Krolicki is under indictment. ex US Rep Jon Porter is the only Republican who can give Reid a tough race- Porter's lose in 2008 had more to do with the Pro Democratic wave than Porter's individual shortcomings.
CA,WA,and WI- Democratic incumbents Boxer,Murray,and Feingold are liberal Democratic US Senators who faced tough re-election campaigns in 1998 and 2004 but are going to win re-election in 2010 by a landslide margin due to second or third tier Democratic opposition.
AR- Democratic incumbent Blanche Lincoln is favored to win re-election but represent a Red state so She will face a tougher than expected re-election campaign.
HI,MD,and VT- Democratic incumbent US Senators- Inouye,Mikulski,and Leahy are elder statesman Democratic US Senators facing re-election- Seats will remain Democratic if they were to open. an open HI seat becomes competive if Governor Linda Lingle(R) runs- but the Democratic candidate is favored to win.
IN,NY,ND,and OR- Democratic Incumbents Bayh,Schumer,Dorgan,and Wyden are highly popular in their home states- won all their re-election campaigns by landslide margins.
All Republicans who think that a slight tip away from the Democrats might help them with the Semate need to remember the cyclical nature of these seats. And before the Democratic Sunami of 2006 when people decided that they wanted more Democratic Senators the conventional wisdom was this:
The class of 2006 being last elected in the split country of 2000 had a number of marginal Democrats who had hung on by the tips of their fingernails. Given how the last two cycles had gone it would be considered lucky if they could hang on. The fact that they got the Senators to retake the Majority was nothing short of miraculous.
2008 held a number of vulnerable GOP Senators who got Bush's 911 coattails in 2002 and thus provided the opportunity to take the Senate which people didn't think would happen in 2006. It was the cycle that looked the second best for Democrats.
2010 was the goldmine of vulnerable GOP senators elected at Bush's highwater mark (2004). Of the three maps it was seen as the most advantageous for a Dem gain and it still looks pretty good. It is the reverse of 2006 and the factors that allowed the Democrats to so overperform seem missing: Bush's approval nosedive post Katrina + a vigorous and reorganized party base with a greater outreach + strong recruitment. There are no signs that the GOP is improving its image or standing outside the die-hards which is disastorous on this map. The Dems have the third election to be hit by the 2006 wave and will probably wipe out the Bush gains here. They don't have to defend 2006 til 2012 when there might be problems.
Drudge is gay? That is just mind bendingly strange...
Sure it's weird, really weird. There are a number of reasons suspect he is gay. Drudge himself is quite coy about it, it's more implied than stated fact. Though he's gone so far as to indirectly suggest he's "dated" a man (by saying that wasn't proof of sex, that the reporter couldn't prove sex). I could drag up a link if you like.
It's actually an "outing" that's been going on publicly since at least 2000. I don't know. He's just a transparent hack I didn't think which way the gate swings made much difference?
*shrug*
It's not really that he uis gay that is so weird, it is that he is so against the gay agenda while being gay that is stunning. Is that some kind of self loathing thing?
it is that he is so against the gay agenda while being gay that is stunning. Is that some kind of self loathing thing?
Remember the infamous Roy Cohn?
Cohn was alive in a different era though - to be gay now and not fighting for gay marriage and real equality when you have the mouthpiece of one of the busiest sites on the internet is just amazingly sad. Drudge must really hate himself...
The 2010 US Senate Election cycle is suppose to be favorable to the Democrats because Republicans have more open seats to defend.
FL,KS,MO,NH,and OH. Democrats fielded a top tier candidate in MO(Carnahan),NH(Hodes)and OH(Fisher and Brunner). Republican candidates in MO(Blunt),NH(???.),and OH(Portman) are unpopular due to their affiliation with GWBUsh and Tom Delay. KS is the only open GOP Democrats did not target. FL- it all depends on Charlie Crist-.
On the Democratic Side- Open seats are CO,DE,IL,and NY- Seats became open when Obama and Biden won the 2008 Presidential election and Clinton and Salazar got Cabinent position. The replacement US Senators Bennett(CO)and Gillibrand(NY)are running for re-election- Strongly favored to win in the November General Election due to lack or GOP opposition. Burris(IL)is likely to retire or lose in the primary- Likely Democratic nominee(IL) Alexi Giannoulias is favored to win in the General Election. Kaufman(DE)is going to retire- AG Beau Biden will be the Democratic nominee for the DE US Senate Seat Beau's father VP Joe Biden previously held. The republican who can give Beau a race is US Rep and ex Governor Mike Castle.
Looking at the Republican US Senators who are running for re-election in 2010.
AK,LA,NC,OK,SC,and SD- The Republican Incumbents- Murkowski,Vitter,Burr,Coburn,DeMint,and Thune- are first term US Senator who got elected in 2004 because of GW Bush's coattails in their home state.
Murkowski-AK is safe because Democrats don't have a top tier candidate to challenge her.
The only Democrat that can give Thune-SD a tough race is US Rep Stephanie Herseth but she is more likely to run for Governor than US Senator.
Vitter-LA,Burr-NC,Coburn-OK and DeMint-SC are rightwing Southern Conservative Wingnut US Senators. Burr-NC is the only US Senator likely to face a top tier challenger- AG Roy Cooper- NC is a purpleish blue state-it narrowly went for Obama- Democrats have a 50-50 shot at winning NC. LA,OK,and SC are red states but it will take a Macaca gaffe by the GOP incumbents for Democrats to win LA,OK,and SC.
Senate Race in KY- Republican incumbent Jim Bunning is highly unpopular and unstable- elected in 1998 by a narrow margin when seat was open. re-elected by a narrow margin in 2004 against an unknown state legislator- Dan Mongiardo who is now LT Governor and challenging Bunning again in 2010. Besides Mongiardo- AG Jack Conway-who got elected AG in 2007 with 60% of the popular vote is also challenging Bunning.
PA- the longtime Republican incumbent US Senator is facing a tough primary opposition- If Specter loses in the primary- Seat goes Democratic.
Perenial vulnerable Democratic US Senators- Lincoln-AR,Boxer-CA,Reid-NV,Murray-WA,and Feingold-WI are going to survive from weak GOP opposition.
CT has more to do with Dodd's unpopularity than the GOP US Senate candidates strenghs.
In 2008- Not a single Democratic US Senator up for re-election decided to retire. The only incumbent Democratic US Senator who faced a tough race in 2008 was Mary Landrieu-LA but she won re-election. Democrats won open GOP seats in CO,NM,and VA. defeated Republican incumbents in AK(Stevens-who was involved in the corruption scandal). MN(Coleman- freshman US Senator whose first US Senate election victory was a fluke-). NH(Sununu-freshman US Senator whose first US Senate election victory was a fluke. NC(Dole lost because of her lackluster campaign and poor constituency service). OR- (Smith lost because of the pro Obama wave).
My guestimate for a timeline in the Franken v. Coleman recount:
April 15-20: final decision for election panel
April 20-30: appeal to MN Supreme Court
May 15-June 15: MN Supreme Ct decision.
At this point, Franken will seek a certificate of election. The MN SoS will sign, but the Governor also has to sign to be valid.
If Pawlenty signs, Dems will try to seat him. Republicans may or may not attempt to filibuster. Democrats may or may not be successful in beating filibuster.
If Pawlenty refuses to sign while SCt appeal or new federal court action is still possible/pending, then Franken seeks court order for Pawlenty to sign. No idea how long that takes or if it would be successful.
May 20-July 15: appeal to US Supreme Court or Coleman files new case in federal district court.
June 1-summer 2009: Supreme Court either accepts the case or declines it. If it declines the case, then Coleman may or may not file a new case in federal court. If SCt declines and no new fed ct case, then Franken gets seated. If SCt declines and Coleman files new fed ct case, then go through the process described above for Franken trying to get seated.
summer 2009-early 2010: SCt decision (assuming it accepted case).
summer 2009-sometime 2010: federal court decision (assuming Coleman files new fed ct case)
???-???: Coleman appeals federal court decision.
I would be absolutely shocked if the U.S. Supreme Court accepted cert of the Coleman case...
Anything is possible when Scalia is there though...
And back on topic:
Nate assumes that primary fights are uniformily very bad for the party having the primary fight. I'm curious whether this is subjective opinion or whether there is any quantitave anlysis backing this up. My own hunch is that having a contested primary does not hurt.
I would be absolutely shocked if the U.S. Supreme Court accepted cert of the Coleman case...,
I too will be surprised if SCOTUS
accepts the case. I also suspect Franken gets a certificate of election even if Coleman files a new fed ct case. But, not sure if Franken gets a certificate of election after tne MN Supreme court rejects Coleman but before the US Supreme Ct declines to take the case. I think with a certificate of election, Coleman gets seated and Rs do not even try to filibuster. However, if Ds try to seat Franken without a certificate of election, I guess, Rs do filibuster and are successful.
Bunning... "sinility" NATE, that was completely uncalled for. Besides Bunning is the only one on the Banking Committee that makes sense.
Too bad that Lisa Madigan has her sights on Illinois' Quinn instead of Burris. Quinn is as honest and progressive as the day is long, which Illinois desperately needs. Madigan would make a great Senator for sure. Knowing the Dems, they'll figure out a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
Bunning makes absolutely no sense, in fact his arguments are not coherent, and his facts are generally wrong. He even has crazies like Boehner and Cantor scared:
http://www.newsobserver.com/1573/story/1418989.html
@ Another Mike
At some point The Minnesots Supremes will issue a Writ of Mandamus directing Pawlenty to sign the Certificate of Election.He will obey.
Looking at the 2012 Cycle.
Byrd(WV)retires- seat becomes competitive is US rep Shelly Moore Capito runs.
Kennedy(MA)retires- safe Democratic.
Akaka(HI)retires- seat becomes competitive if ex Governor Linda Lingle runs.
Kohl(WI)retires- seat becomes competive if US Rep Paul Ryan decides to run.
Fienstien(CA)retires- seat becomes competive if Arnold decides to run.
Looking at the Freshman Democratic US Senators facing re-election in 2012.
Cardin(MD)- is a shoe in to win re-election defeats either ex Governor Bob Ehrlich or ex RNC chair Michael Steele.
Klobuchar(MN)-is a shoe in to win re-election-defeating US Rep Michelle Bachmann.
McCaskill(MO)is favored to win re-election due to weak GOP opposition.
Tester(MT)is favored to win re-election due to weak GOP opposition. Dennis Rehberg is more likely to run for Governor in 2012 than run for the US Senate.
Menendez(NJ)-favored to win re-election against weak GOP opposition.
Gillibrand(NY)-favored to win re-election against weak GOP opposition.
Brown-OH- favored to win re-election against weak GOP opposition.
Casey-PA- shoe in to win re-election
Whitehouse-RI- shoe in to win re-election.
Sanders-VT-shoe in to win re-election.
Webb-VA- favored to win re-election against weak GOP opposition- Eric Cantor or Randy Forbes.
On the GOP side.
Lugar-IN retires- seat stays Republican if Governor Mitch Daniels runs- otherwise the race is a tossup.
Hatch-UT retires- Safe GOP hold.
Looking at the 2014 Cycle.
Levin-MI retires- seat becomes competitive if US Rep Candace Miller runs.
Lautenberg-NJ- retires- seat remains Democratic due to weak GOP opposition.
Looking for the freshman Democratic US Senators facing-re-election in 2014.
Begich-AK loses if Governor Sarah Palin decides to run.
Udall-CO is favored to win re-election against weak GOP opposition.
Biden-DE is a shoe in to win re-election in 2014.
Franken-MN- will face a tough re-election but will win due to lack of GOP opposition.
Shaheen-NH is a shoe in to win re-election in 2014.
Udall-NM is a shoe in to win re-election in 2014.
Hagan-NC-is favored to win due to weak GOP opposition- Patrick McHenry.
Merkley-OR is favored to win due to lack of GOP opposition.
Warner-VA is a shoe in to win re-election.
Bennet will report that he's raised almost 1.4 million this quarter and he's got a pretty decent supporting cast.
Obama is supposed to come out here at some point and hold a fundraiser for Bennet and Ritter - which will help. Former speaker Andrew Romanoff is an unknown as to whether he will enter the D primary. If he does, the D primary is gonna get nasty because he's got a rather large following as well.
I think the Gubernatorial and state races will be more interesting because of Amendment 54. My wife is having the damnedest time raising money because of it.
At some point The Minnesots Supremes will issue a Writ of Mandamus directing Pawlenty to sign the Certificate of Election.He will obey.
The question is whether they will order pawlenty to issue the certificate (1) after they rule and before US supreme court appeal or separate fed court action, (2) after Supreme Ct either declines to accept or rules in favor of Franken, but while a separate fed ct case is pending, or (3) only after all appeals and litigation are exhausted. Seems like 1 is most likely, but 2 wouldn't shock me.
"Too bad that Lisa Madigan has her sights on Illinois' Quinn instead of Burris. Quinn is as honest and progressive as the day is long, which Illinois desperately needs. Madigan would make a great Senator for sure. Knowing the Dems, they'll figure out a way to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory"
Every Democratic Statewide Elected official in Illinios- AG Lisa Madigan,Comptroller Dan Hynes- and Treasurer- Alexi Giannoulias has ambitions to run for higher statewide office even before Rod Blagojevich's indictment.
Dan Hynes- won his first Statewide Election- IL Comptroller in 1998. Hynes won re-election as IL Comptroller in 2002 instead of running for Governor when the seat was open. In 2004- He decided to run for the US Senate- seat was open- the Republican incumbent Peter Fitzgerald was retiring. One of Hynes- Democratic primary opponent- state Senator Barack Obama became an instant superstar. Hynes again chickened out in the 2006 IL Governors Race when he decided to run for re-election as Comptroller instead of challenging the unpopular Democratic Governor Rod Blagojevich in the primary.
2010- Hynes is more likely to run for IL AG the position Lisa Madigan is giving up to run for Governor.
Lisa Madigan-elected IL AG in 2002- won re-election in 2006 as AG by a landslide margin. Before Blagojevich was arrested Lisa Madigan was favored to win the Democratic nomination for the 2010 IL Governors Race.
Alexi Giannoulias elected IL Treasurer in 2006- running for the US Senate in 2010 -seat formerly held by his mentor President Barack Obama.
Cohn was alive in a different era though - to be gay now and not fighting for gay marriage and real equality when you have the mouthpiece of one of the busiest sites on the internet is just amazingly sad. Drudge must really hate himself...
Or the party in the closet serves his desires and it's on to making sure he's got the cash.
Some people just have a much less developed sense of community and empathy, and would sell their grandmother if the opportunity presented itself. *shrug* Drudge doesn't strike you as someone like that?
Fienstien(CA)retires- seat becomes competive if Arnold decides to run. -nkpolitics
Arnold's approval rating is in the toilet, not going to happen. Arnold is the new Pete Wilson. If Feinstein retires (please god, let her retire!), I think Jane Harman (democratic congresswoman from South Bay) becomes the new junior senator from California.
"Dodd can still win, that republican congressman who is running against him made some terrible votes in the house and if Dodd can make the election about those votes then he can win. Tom Harkin was another imcumbent who looked vunerable in 2006 in his reelection race but he managed to do exactly what I said and if he can do it, Dodd can do it."
Dodd(CT)-vulnerability in 2009 does not come close to resemble Harkin(IA)vulnerability in 2007.
Harkin(IA)-is a Democratic US Senator who always faced tough re-election campaigns against sitting GOP US House members- It was Tom Tauke in 1990,Jim Ross Lightfoot in 1996,and Greg Ganske in 2002- The two GOP US House members in IA- Tom Latham and Steve King decided not to run. It would had been great had Steve King ran for the US Senate in 2008- Harkin would have ended Steve King's political career by a landslide margin.
Chris Dodd(CT)has never faced a tough race in any of his US Senate Campaigns- Elected in 1980 by a 56-43 percent margin. Relected in 1986 by a 65-45 percent margin. Re-elected in 1992 by a 59-38 percent margin. 1998 by a 65-32 percent margin against ex US Rep Gary Franks. 2004 by a 66-32 percent margin. This is the first time in Dodd's political career where his poll numbers are in the toilet and is trailing against a former US House member who lost re-election in 2006.
think Jane Harman (democratic congresswoman from South Bay) becomes the new junior senator from California.
What about the Sanchez sisters.
Happy Easter to you all folks.
:)
Happy easter, twatador!
Bennet's vote against EFCA will come back to haunt him: Colorado's got a fair number of unions, especially around heavily Democratic Pueblo.
Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper is very popular in Denver and its suburbs, which could translate into easy primary + general election wins.
I'm tempted to go with the poll showing Toomey up. Pennsylvania Republicans reject another term for Specter 66-26 and registered voters reject it 53-38. Any poll that shows Specter ahead is therefore seriously messed up.
Since Obama is the main face of the Democratic Party and GOP Gov. Gibbons will continue to be a much bigger problem for state Republicans, a lot of pressure has been taken off of Reid.
Dodd will lose. He's unapologetic about the Countrywide scandal + AIG bonuses. Since much of his funding is from the financial-services industry, he couldn't get away from the scandals if he wanted. You do the math. The only question is whether he loses the primary or the general.
Matt- (There is no scenario that Bennett-CO is facing a Democratic primary opposition against either John Hickenlooper or Andrew Romanoff- Until that happens- Bennett is pretty safe.
Regarding Dodd(CT)-He is more likely to lose in the General more than the primary. Dodd-CT is the elder statesman among CT Dems- every Democratic politician from Blumenthal,Larson,and DeLauro,as well as Courtney and Murphy will throw their support behind Dodd-
Dodd(CT)lose against Simmons will be by a narrow single digit margin.
i gree with your rankings, nate. they make good sense. a few points i'd like argue with from the posters:
1. "Running to the middle doesn't work in Colorado." Hmm, that would be besides Senator Salazar or Governor Ritter? They are both moderate. A serious primary challenge might happen, but I think is less likely. Bennet has to be considered a slight favorite.
The top 3 (NH, KY and PA) have to be considered slight advantages for the Dems, but if Grayson runs in KY for the GOP or Specter looks stronger in the primary, then they become tossups at best.
GROG - I felt the exact same way about the National Enquirer when they were the only ones reporting on John Edwards purported affair. Now, I'm not so sure...
My 2010 US Senate Ranking.
1)NH- Open Seat- Blue State (Democrats are united behind US Rep Paul Hodes). No top tier Republican candidate- ex US Senator John Sununu,ex Governor Stephen Merrill or ex US Rep Charlie Bass has made any decision to enter. Hodes is favored to defeat either Sununu,Merrill or Bass.
2)MO- Open Seat- Purple State- (Democrats are united behind Secretary of State Robin Carnahan). Republican have a primary between (ex US House Minority Whip Roy Blunt and ex Treasurer Sarah Steelman).
3)OH- Open Seat- Purple State- (Democrats have a primary between Lt Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner). who ever wins the Democratic primary is favored to defeat Republican nominee ex US Rep and OMB Director and US Trade Rep Rob Portman.
4)KY- (Bunning-R)- Bunning will run again and get the Republican nomination. Democrats have two top tier candidates- (Lt Governor Dan Mongiordo and Attorney General Jack Conway)-who ever wins the Democratic nomination is favored to unseat Bunning.
5)NC-(Burr-R)- Democratic Nominee-AG Roy Cooper. Cooper defeats Burr.
6)PA- (Specter-R)- loses in the GOP primary to ex US Rep Pat Toomey who will lose to likely Democratic Nominee Joe Torsella by a narrow margin.
7)FL-(OPEN-)- Crist decides against running for the US Senate- runs for re-election as Governor- The race becomes a tossup-
8)CT-(Dodd-D)- either going to lose by a narrow margin or survive by a narrow margin.
Thanks markymark...
Would a "referendum"-type election apply in a place like Delaware though? I assumed that only happened in states that are tossups, not reliably blue states?
Or does it stay a tossup due to Mike Castle's popularity? Who is this Castle guy, and why hasn't he declared running for Senate yet if he's got such a good chance to win it, even against the Biden dynasty?
Or does it stay a tossup due to Mike Castle's popularity? Who is this Castle guy, and why hasn't he declared running for Senate yet if he's got such a good chance to win it, even against the Biden dynasty?
Mike Castle is the current At Large US House Member from DE- He has served in the US House of Representatives since 1992- Before that he served two terms as Governor of DE(1984-1992) and two terms as Lt Governor of DE(1976-1984). He is a popular statewide elected official of DE for more than 30 years. Had the late Bill Roth- decided to retire from the US Senate in 2000- Castle would have ran for the US Senate against Tom Carper- who then was completing his second term as Governor.
During the 1970's DE US Senate Seat was held by Bill Roth(R)and Joe Biden(D).
Roth(R)was elected in 1970,re-elected in 1976,1982,1988,and 1994.
Biden(D)was elected in 1972,1978,1984,1990,1996,2002,and 2008.
Mike Castle was elected Lt Governor 1980. Elected Governor 1984,re-elected Governor in 1988. In 1992- Castle ran for the at Large DE US House seat vacated by Tom Carper who was elected Governor of DE in 1992.
Tom Carper- elected DE Treasurer 1976, re-elected 1978 and 1980. Elected to US House in 1982,re-elected in 1984,1986,1988,and 1990. Elected Governor in 1992 and 1996.Elected to US Senate in 2000 re-elected in 2006.
Castle,Carper,and Biden Sr are popular politicians from DE.
DE US Senate Race is only a tossup because of Mike Castle's personal popularity- Castle decision not to run for the US Senate has to do with with the fact he is too old to be in a competitive race. If Castle gets elected to the US Senate in 2010- He will be 71. Castle will have to run again in 2014 when he is 75.
Beau Biden-if he is elected to the US Senate in 2010 can serve in the US Senate for more than 30 years like his father.
The referendum on Barack Obama will occur in US Senate Races in
Arkansas(Lincoln-D will face a closer than expected race.)
Colorado-(Bennett-D will face a closer than expected race.)
Connecticut-(Dodd-D loses.)-Dodd lose has more to do with his own doing than Obama's popularity.
Florida-OPEN- Kendrick Meeks loses.
Nevada-(Reid-D will face a closer than expected race against Jon Porter if Porter runs.
Pat Toomey(PA)get elected to the US Senate.
Gillibrand(NY)will face a closer than expected race against Pataki or King.
Giannoulias(IL)gets elected to the US Senate by a 55-45 percent margin.
Hodes(NH),Carnahan(MO),Fisher/Brunner(OH),Mongiardo/Conway(KY)and perhaps Cooper(NC) are going to get elected- due to their high popularity in their home state and the weakness of their GOP opponent than Obama's popularity.
@ nkpolitics1279
What changed between 5:40 PM (Toomey loses) and 8:59 PM (Toomey wins)?
Opus 132
Toomey loses if the 2010 US Senate Election cycle is a neutral cycle like in 1998.
In the 2010 US Senate election cycle is like 1994- when the Republicans took over the US Senate and House (Gingrich Revolution)- then Toomey wins.
I was mentioning that if Obama is unpopular like Bill Clinton was in 1994- then Toomey wins- just like Santorum did in 1994 against Harris Wofford.
Had 1994 been a neutral year
Bob Carr(D)would have defeated Spence Abraham(R) in MI.
Ann Wynia(D)would have defeated Rod Grams(R) in MN.
Harris Wofford(D)would have defeated Rick Santorum(R) in PA.
Matt: Dodd will lose.
Don't mean to address this to Matt specifically, but isn't it a tad early to be making such predictions with what looks like certainty? We're over 18 months away from the general election, folks; that's several lifetimes in politics. I can envision many scenarios where in a year the economy is into recovery and most people don't know or don't remember about Dodd's "scandals" (some possibly deserved but some not).
A little humility when facing the unknown is never a bad idea.
@dsimon:
I agree with you; a year is an eternity in politics. It is entirely possible that Dodd was thrown under the bus for temporary convenience, but nine months from now, if it looks like he needs help, the Obama admin will bend over backward to keep a Democratic Senator seated.
Same thing with the Democratically led Senate. This is the game; you get humiliated this quarter and take one for the team, but not one member of the majority in the Senate and not one staffer in the White House wants Dodd to lose his seat, and it will be worth millions to them and whatever it takes to boost his profile when needed.
At the moment he is a convenient whipping boy. They know it. He knows it. He needs to take a few bullets for the chief, but count on a Dodd redemption and reward down the road. They'll make him a hero when it counts.
Looking which US Senator loses re-election in 2010.
Specter(PA) loses in the Republican primary.
The General Election matchup between Joe Torsella(D)vs Pat Toomey(R) is a tossup. I would give the edge to Torsella.
Burris(IL) loses in the Democratic primary to Alexi Giannoulias(IL). Giannoulias is strongly favored to in the general election.
Bunning(KY) loses in the general election to Democratic challenger Jack Conway.
Burr(NC) loses in the general election to Democratic challenger Roy Cooper.
Looking at the OPEN Seats.
Beau Biden(DE) wins by a landslide margin against Christine O'Donnell.
OPEN-FL seat is too close to call between Democratic nominee Kendrick Meek vs Republican nominee Marco Rubio.
Jerry Moran(KS) wins the Republican primary and the General election by a landslide margin.
Robin Carnahan(MO) wins against her Repubican Opponent Roy Blunt by a 57-42 percent margin.
Paul Hodes(NH)wins by a landslide margin against an unknown GOP candidate- Ovide Lamontagne. ex US Senator John Sununu and ex US Congressman Charlie Bass run for their old US House seats.
Lee Fisher(OH)wins the Democratic primary and defeats his Republican opponent Robert Portman in the general election by a 52-47 percent margin.
OH and KY are two states which two ambitious Democratic Statewide elected officials are running for the US Senate- Lt Governors Lee Fisher(OH) and Dan Mongiardo(KY) have the endorsements from their former runningmates- Ted Strickland and Steve Beshear. Fisher(OH) and Mongiardo(KY) are being challenged in the primary by Sect of State Jennifer Brunner(OH) and Mongiardo(KY) is being challenged by Attorney General Jack Conway(KY).
Fisher(OH) is the only person who has been a candidate who won Statewide Office more than once.
Fisher was narrowly elected OH Attorney General in 1990 against a State Senator who made an unsucessful run for US Senate and Governor in the 1980's- 1990 was The year Republicans in Ohio were popular- Voinovich/DeWine were elected Governor/Lt Governor. Taft elected Secretary of State unseating Sherrod Brown. Fisher lost re-election as Attorney General in 1994 against Betty Montgomery- a State Senator from the Toledo Area. 1994 was a pro GOP year in OHIO and nationally. Fisher runs for Governor in 1998- narrowly loses to Bob Taft- who was then a sitting Secretary of State. In 2006 Fisher was elected Lt Governor alongside with Governor Ted Strickland.
Jennifer Brunner only won one Statewide Election. S.O.S position in 2006 against a Clerk from the Hamilton County Court. 2006 was a pro Democratic year in Ohio and at the national level.
Dan Mongiardo then a state Senator narrowly lost a US Senate race in 2004 to Jim Bunning. In 2007- Mongiardo was elected Lt Governor alongside Steve Beshear.
Jack Conway was elected Attorney General in 2007 against the Minority Whip of the KY state house.
The 2010 OH US Senate race is do or die for Lee Fisher. If Fisher loses the Democratic nomination- his carreer in statewide politics is over. Jennifer Brunner-if she loses in the Democratic primary can make a comeback in 2014 by running for Governor along with Richard Cordray or Tim Ryan.
Regarding the 2010 KY US Senate Race- who ever loses the Democratic nomination is the frontrunner to run for the other KY US Senate seat in 2014 against Mitch McConnell. or Governor in 2015.
Nate,
I think it's likely that as Burris becomes less controversial and Blagogate anger subsides, the seat becomes more likely to switch hands in 2010. If Burris is seen as a credible candidate independent of the Blagovich scandals, he increases his chances of winning a narrow plurality among Democratic voters in the crowded 2010 primary. Should this happen, the Republicans' odds of taking the seat become vastly more realistic. Burris's slow acceptance as a legitimate legislator may in the long run endanger the seat. I think you yourself may have expressed similar feelings in other posts. Just a thought, keep up the good work.
2010 US Senate Race
Likely Takeover
1)NH-(OPEN-Gregg-R)-(Hodes-D)
2)PA-(OPEN-Specter-R)-(Torsella-D)
3)MO-(OPEN-Bond-R)-(Carnahan-D)
Lean Takeover
4)OH-(OPEN-Voinovich-R)-(Fisher-D)
5)KY-(Bunning-R)-(Conway-D)
6)NC-(Burr-R)-(Cooper-D)
Tossup.
7)FL-(OPEN-Martinez-R)
Lean Retention
8)LA-(Vitter-R)
9)CT-(Dodd-D)
10)NV-(Reid-D)
11)CO-(Bennett-D)
Likely Retention
12)IL-(OPEN-Burris-D)(Giannoulias-D)
13)TX-(Special(OPEN-Hutchison-R)
14)NY-Special(Gillibrand-D)
15)DE-Special-OPEN-Kaufman-D)(Biden-D)
16)KS-(OPEN-Brownback-R)-(Moran-R)
17)OK-(Coburn-R)
18)AR-(Lincoln-D)
19)CA-(Boxer-D)
20)WA-(Murray-D)
21)WI-(Feingold-D)
22)AZ-(McCain-R)
Safe Incumbent
23)GA-(Isakson-R)
24)SC-(DeMint-R)
25)AK-(Murkowski-R)
26)SD-(Thune-R)
27)IA-(Grassley-R)
28)ND-(Dorgan-D)
29)IN-(Bayh-D)
30)HI-(Inouye-D)
31)VT-(Leahy-D)
32)AL-(Shelby-R)
33)MD-(Mikulski-D)
34)UT-(Bennett-R)
35)OR-(Wyden-D)
36)NY-(Schumer-D)
37)ID-(Crapo-R)
Democratic Pick ups
NH- Blue State,Open Seat,Top Tier Democratic Candidate- US Rep Paul Hodes, Weak GOP opposition-
PA- Blue State- Open Seat due to Specter's defeat in GOP primary. Likely Democratic Nominee-Joe Torsella is second tier candidate behind Philadelphia Burbs US Reps (Schwartz,Sestak,and Murphy-D)-Whoever the DEM nominee is benifits from the divisive GOP primary. The Specter Republicans will support Torsella over Toomey.
MO- Purple State-OPEN Seat. Democrats have a top tier candidate- Robin Carnahan-D. Likely Republican nominee US Rep Roy Blunt is very unpopular due to ties with Tom Delay.
OH-Purple State-OPEN-Seat. Republican Nominee- Robert Portman is unpopular due to ties with Bush 43. Democratic Nominee- Lee Fisher has backing of popular DEM Governor Ted Strickland.
KY- Weak,Controversial,and Senile Republican opponent-Jim Bunning. Democratic Nominee Jack Conway is a popular statewide Elected Official.
NC- weak and controversial Republican opponent-Richard Burr. Democratic Nominee- Roy Cooper is a popular Statewide elected official.
Tossup or Lean Retention
FL- (OPEN Seat and Purple State). If Crist runs and wins the GOP nomination. FL stays Republican. If Crist runs and loses the GOP nomination. Democratic Pickup.
If Crist does not run- Tossup.
Lean Retention due to weak Incumbent and Lack of Top Tier opposition.
LA(Vitter-R)-
CT(Dodd-D)
CO(Bennett-D)
NV(Reid-D)
2010 US Senate Rankings.
Likely Takeover
1)NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)
Blue State. Strong DEM Barring Sununu- Weak GOP.
2)MO-(OPEN-Bond-R)
Purple State. Strong DEM Weak GOP.
Lean Takeover
3)NC-(Burr-R)
Purple State. Strong DEM challenger. Weak GOP incumbent.
4)KY-(Bunning-R)
Red State- Strong DEM Challenger. Weak GOP incumbent.
5)PA(OPEN-Specter-R)
Blue State Weak GOP.
6)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
Purple State. Weak GOP.
Tossup.
7)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
Purple State. Barring Crist Weak GOP.
Lean Retention.
8)CT(Dodd-D)
9)NV(Reid-D)
10)LA(Vitter-R)
Likely Retention.
11)CO(Bennett-D)
12)NY-B(Gillibrand-D)
13)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)
Safe Retention.
14)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
15)KS-(OPEN-Brownback-R)
16)AZ(McCain-R)
17)CA(Boxer-D)
18)WA(Murray-D)
19)WI(Feingold-D)
20)AR(Lincoln-D)
21)OK(Coburn-R)
22)AK(Murkowski-R)
23)SC(DeMint-R)
24)SD(Thune-R)
25)GA(Isakson-R)
26)HI(Inouye-D)
27)VT(Leahy-D)
28)IA(Grassley-R)
29)MD(Mikulski-D)
30)AL(Shelby-R)
31)ND(Dorgan-D)
32)UT(Bennett-R)
33)OR(Wyden-D)
34)IN(Bayh-D)
35)NY-A(Schumer-D)
36)ID-(Crapo-R)
RCP is reporting that Tom Coburn isn't sure whether he will run again.
IF Coburn doesn't run and IF Democratic Governor Brad Henry (who won 70% in his re-election bid in 2006) were persuaded to run for the Senate (two big ifs, to be sure) then Oklahoma would suddenly look like a pretty good pickup opportunity for the Democrats.
Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races.
US Senate Races- Governors or Former Governors are potential candidates.
Term limited Governors.
Schwarzenneger-(R-CA) decided not to run against Boxer(D-CA). Would have been a clear underdog had he ran.
Lingle(R-HI)- The only scenario of Lingle running for the US Senate is if Inouye retires or gets indicted and convicted-(Ted Stevens AK). Lingle is still underdog W/O Inouye.
Henry(D-OK)- Henry-D is a popular Governor. Coburn-R is a polarizing Incumbent US Senator. A Henry vs Coburn matchup can be a tossup.
Rendell(D-PA) The only scenario of Rendell running for the US Senate is if Specter retires.
Specter is likely to lose in the GOP Primary to Pat Toomey- who will lose in the general election to a second tier Democratic candidate- Philidelphia Area US Reps Schwartz,Sestak or Murphy. and Joe Torsella- the National Constitution Center CEO. If Specter is the GOP nominee- 2010 PA US Senate race can be a pure tossup. This is identical to the 2008 Oregon US Senate race. Democrats nominated a third tier candidate Jeff Merkly to challenge Gordon Smith. Smith lost narrowly to Merkley. If Toomey is the Republican Nominee. The 2010 PA US Senate Race will be identical to the 2008 CO US Senate Race. Republican nominated an unelectable candidate- a rightwing conservative former US Congressman. Democrats nominated a mainstream US Congressman from Boulder.
US Senate Race where Statewide Elected officials(Lt Governor,Attorney General,Secretary of State,Treasurer)are running.
DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)- Democratic Nominee- Beau Biden-D - State AG and son of VP and former US Senator Joe Biden.
IL(OPEN-Burris-D)- Democratic Nominee- Alexi Giannoulias-D- State Treasurer and protege of US President and former US Senator Barack Obama.
KY(Bunning-R)- Democratic candidates- Lt Governor Dan Mongiardo and Attorney General Jack Conway. either of those candidates are favored to defeat Bunning.
MO(OPEN-Bond-R)- Democratic nominee- Secretary of State Robin Carnahan- Daughter of late Governor Mel Carnahan and former US Senator Jean Carnahan.
NC(Burr-R)- Democratic candidate- Attorney General Roy Cooper is favored to unseat Burr should he decide to run.
OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)- Democratic candidate- Lt Governor Lee Fisher and Secretary of State Jennifer Brunner- either of those candidate are favored to defeat GOP nominee Robert Portman.
To Simon on April 10 - It is WELL worth challenging Bayh in the primary. If someone gets close enough that he fears losing the primary, he's likely to pay more attention to, ahem, Democrats than he has done...
See John Cornyn's appalling comments re Bayh on BlueIndiana.net
http://www.blueindiana.net/showDiary.do?diaryId=3801
Another way of getting rid of Bayh(IN)is convince him to run for Governor of Indiana in 2012 when Mitch Daniels-R is term limited.
Due to Specter-PA party switch and Bunning retirement. Crist running in FL, Cooper running in NC,Castle running in DE, Kirk running in IL.
1)NH(OPEN-Gregg-R)
2)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)
3)OH(OPEN-Voinovich-R)
4)KY(OPEN-Bunning-R)
5)NC(Burr-R)
6)CT(Dodd-D)
7)CO(Bennett-D)
8)DE(OPEN-Kaufman-D)
9)IL(OPEN-Burris-D)
10)NY(Gillibrand-D)
11)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
12)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
13)AR(Lincoln-D)
14)LA(Vitter-R)
15)NV(Reid-D)
16)GA(Isakson-R)
17)WI(Feingold-D)
18)OK(Coburn-R)
19)WA(Murray-D)
20)SC(DeMint-R)
21)CA(Boxer-D)
22)AK(Murkowski-R)
23)SD(Thune-R)
24)ND(Dorgan-D)
25)IN(Bayh-D)
26)AZ(McCain-R)
27)IA(Grassley-R)
28)HI(Inouye-D)
29)VT(Leahy-D)
30)PA(Specter-D)
31)MD(Mikulski-D)
32)AL(Shelby-R)
33)OR(Wyden-D)
34)UT(Bennett-R)
35)NY(Schumer-D)
36)ID(Crapo-R)
Regarding the Illinios US Senate Race. Madigan,Giannoulias or Schakowsky is favored to defeat Kirk. Madigan is the front runner in the US Senate race and the Governors race. Every Statewide Elected Official in IL (Quinn,Madigan,Hynes,and Giannoulias)are ambitious in running for higher Statewide Office. Pat Quinn- the current Governor will run for a first full term as Governor and should be the Democratic Nominee for the 2010 IL Governor's Race. Lisa Madigan-the current IL Attorney General should run for the US Senate in 2010. Dan Hynes the current IL Comptroller should run for IL Attorney General in 2010. Giannoulias the current Treasurer runs for Lt Governor. Hynes and Giannoulias can use their position as a stepping stone to run for US Senate in 2014 or 2020 when Durbin decides to retire or Governor in 2018 when Quinn leaves office. If Durbin retires in 2014- Hynes runs for the US Senate gets elected. Giannoulias runs for Governor in 2018. or Madigan runs for Governor in 2018 and appoints Giannoulias to her US Senate Seat.
If Durbin retires in 2020. Madigan runs for Governor in 2018. She appoints Giannoulias to her US Senate Seat who will have to run in a special Election in 2020 and full first term in 2022. Hynes runs for the Durbin seat.
Bennet, CO, has raised over $1.5 million in 3 months and is methodically covering every county in the State winning over his party, the Unaffiliated (majority) and conservatives. Any Democrat seeking statewide office doesn't have a prayer of getting elected unless they are moderate and independent of liberal ideology. Bennet will have no serious primary or general election opponent. He will win his Senate seat by a comfortable margin in 2010.
BTW, Bennet (D) Colorado, is spelled with one "t", not two.
From cell phones users to see the specific situation of occupational segmentation in 2009, accounting for 19.5% of students dropped 21.2 percent over last year, other types of occupations than those last year, the proportion of Internet users cheap cell phones increase. White collar crowd from last year's 29.2% increase to 38.9% this year, accounting for 9.7 percentage points up to replace the student groups cellphone users as one of the biggest occupational hierarchy; blue-collar crowd from last year's 13.9% to 18.9% this year, accounting for rose by 5.0 percentage points, showing that mobile phones users by a group of students to the occupational groups a significant trend in the development. Ereli advice that, cheap cell phones and mobile phone users Internet users monthly income distribution of age, education, occupational distribution has strong correlation with high spending capacity of white-collar workers and some students in the crowd will be a huge cell phone china online potential consumer groups.
By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.
The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china from the crowd of view, the buyer 25 to 40 years old mainly white-collar workers, accounting for about 40%, followed by consumer groups of students, accounting for about three into. According to statistics, 3G wholesale products in sales, compared with a 2G mobile phone sales are still a wide gap between, but since June has been, 3G mobile phones increase in the average monthly buy products for more than 50%, "11" period due to holiday business, the increase of more than 150%. Pk that the "11" after the peak sales of 3G handsets likely to usher in more stable growth.
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