The New York State Board of Elections has a lot of data (.pdf) out on absentee ballots in the special election in that state's 20th Congressional District, which will be vital in breaking the virtual tie between Scott Murphy and Jim Tedisco.
One thing that seems fairly clear is that there tend to be a relatively higher proportion of absentee ballots returned in counties where Murphy performed well on election night. For example, Columbia County, where Murphy won 56.3 percent of the of the vote last week, accounted for 9.8 percent of ballots on election night, but accounts for 15.3 percent of absentees. Conversely, Saratoga County, which is a Tedisco stronghold, represented 36 percent of ballots on election night but only 27.2 percent of absentees:
If I simply apportion the absentee ballots based on the distribution of the election day vote in each county, I show Murphy gaining a net of 173 ballots during the absentee counting phase. In addition, as Michael Barone has noted, although a plurality of the absentee ballot returns are Republican, they are somewhat less Republican than registration in the district as a whole.
The absentee ballot counting process begins tomorrow. Murphy presently appears to lead by 83 votes, although the numbers have been fluctuating somewhat wildly. While nothing's for sure yet, things are starting to look a bit difficult for Tedisco; he may need some good news from one of the two counties that have yet to finish re-canvassing their results, or a lot of help from military absentee ballots (of which only about 200 were returned).
(n.b. See also Campaign Diaries, which has a similar analysis)
4.07.2009
NY-20: Absentee Ballot Distribution Appears to Favor Murphy (D)
@ 9:17 AM
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So, first...I think. This is great news for JOHN MCCAIN! OT: Minnesota will be opening and counting 396 ballots in the senate race today. Tune in to theuptake.org to watch.
And the dance goes on...
Who cares if it looks bad for Tedisco. It looked bad for Coleman (MN-Sen) and look where that's gone. Nowhere! That's right, Norm proved that you don't have to win outright, you just have to keep it close enough that you can file frivolous lawsuits and appeals. It's only a year and a half to the next election; Norm's showed us that's really not that long!
thanks for the tip on mn lojasmo. by the way here is my amateurish attempt at figuring out the absentee vote here in ny 20 a few days ago...
I think the data looks good for Murphy in NY 20. This is the information I used:
http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13044/new-york-20th-cd-election-results
http://blogs.timesunion.com/capitol/archives/13162/breakdown-of-the-absentee-ballots
If we figure Dutchess, Ostego, Essex and Delaware counties as ties then the counties Murphy took by about 10% have about 3400 absentee ballots in and about 1400 still out and the one's Tedisco took by about 10% have about 3000 absentee ballots in and about 1100 still out. If the patterns hold or stay close to the 3/31 cast vote percentages Murphy wins.
This type of election analysis is where Mr. Silver is at his best.
I thought absentee ballots in general tended to skew older and therefore more conservative/Republican. Nate also avers that among the actual ballots themselves the GOP has an edge, again favoring Tedisco.
Based on Nate's analysis there is only a 2.5% tilt in favor of Murphy in terms of which districts the absentees come from. The degree to which the GOP is historically favored among absentee voters should counteract any sort of advantage there.
This is good news for John McCain!
PS: Obama in Turkey lavished praise on Islam speaking about the positve contribtuions its culture has made not only in the world, but America itself.
Can anyone point to what you think he might be referring to? I admit to being mystified.
(follow me on twitter -- PeteKent01)
Bye bye, Michael Steele
PeteKent, perhaps a visit to the Metropolitan Museum of Art in NYC and a slow walk through the Islamic art exhibits would be a way to begin?
In fact if you go to their web site today it opens onto some Islamic treasures from Cairo.
That's a decent post there Pete! On the OT question I'm not really sure either, maybe it's something to do with something really ubiquitous that we take for granted? Nothing else really pops at me at the moment. *shrug*
About the "traditional" edge for Republicans, that took a really beating in the 2008 election. As well I'm not sure that the demographic you mention becomes as prominent in non-general elections? Either way though the lower percentage of Republican registered absentee than the general electorate Republican registered voters doesn't bode well.
I think an interesting question is what were the absentee numbers for 2008 for NY-20. Were those reported at all, or even counted for Congress, given how lopsided the House Rep vote was?
I think it's important to look at cause and effect - the clump of absentees in Columbia County is not accidental. I think it represents the strength of an organization that Kirsten Gillibrand has really galvanized. The low numbers in Dutchess, Rensselaer and Saratoga illustrate how relatively moribund the political organizations on both sides are in those counties - those are places where the absentees are just accidental, not actively culled and encouraged by an organization.
We saw the same thing in the votes on election night - ten years ago, I never would have imagined a huge margin for a Democrat materializing out of Columbia.
I'm optimistic. I think you'll see a fairly traditional (and thus Republican) Florida vote out of Dutchess, but a surprisingly Democratic tilt out of Columbia and the North Country. Here's hoping...
As Nate demonstrates, things look good for Murphy. But, he's far from safe. These are the possible problems as I see it:
1. The recanvass results in more Tedisco votes--as we've already seen, there have been some pretty big swings both ways. Any error is likely to be random, so it's a 50-50 chance of benefiting Tedisco. As there seems to be only two counties left to recanvass, the chance of a big swing diminishes.
2. Military votes--Nate notes that only about 200 military ballots have been returned. But, that is not very surprising given the time it takes for them to be received. There are about 1,000 military ballots issued. If they are returned at the same rate as other absentee ballots, you would expect that eventually about 500-700 are returned. Even if military ballots do not get returned as the same overall absentee ballot rate, it's reasonable to expect many are still on the way. Which way will military ballots split? That's the big question. If they have a strong Republican bias as many suspect, they could tip the balance. For example, assume 500 military ballots and a 60-40 Tedisco-Murphy split. Tedisco would gain 100 votes.
3. Other absentee ballots--Nate's calculations assume that absentee ballots will split the same as regular ballots from the same counties. But, absentee ballots are not a random sample. They are likely cast by elderly and disabled and those traveling. I don't have any idea if this means they'll lean more one way or the other. But, if there's even a slight bias for Tedisco among this category, it could easily overcome any current Murphy lead.
Finally, there's another group of ballots Nate doesn't mention--provisional/affidavit ballots. These are ballots cast on election day by people who right to cast a vote was disputed for one reason or another. A WAG based on the experience of one poll worker at one precinct would be 500-1,000 of these ballots, many of which would not be counted because the voter was ineligible. These are usually considered to lean heavily Democratic.
Nice try, Gregg.
But I don't think Obama was referring to art. How about a social contribtuion. And let's not go back to Hammurabi's law! Something more recent say since 1900???
Anybody please, help me to understand how "Islam" has contributed to the betterment of the modern world and why our President should have singled it out for praise except to falsely curry favor.
And no, Salmon Rushdie, is not signficant enough!
(follow me on twitter - PeteKent01)
PeteKent,
Islamic culture was the height of civilization for roughly the duration of the Ottoman Empire. They pretty much created the fields of modern mathematics and science--with the Arabic numeral system and scientific method still essential. They were also responsible for preserving much of the knowledge that would have otherwise been lost after the fall of Rome.
Dwight,
I don't think we can generalize that much (yet) from the 2008 absentee ballots. Weren't those influenced by an unsually high number of students motivated to vote absentee by the rock star at the top of the ticket? I'll go with the ingrained habits of the snow birds down in FL over those of fickle youth!
(follow me on twitter - PeteKent01)
I thought absentee ballots in general tended to skew older and therefore more conservative/Republican. Nate also avers that among the actual ballots themselves the GOP has an edge, again favoring Tedisco.
Knowing how absentee ballots in this district went in 2008 would help answer the first question. I'm far from certain that either absentee or older voters generally skew Republican. Older voters did skew McCain vs. Obama, but Democrats have traditionally done well with older voters.
You misunderstand the part about the ballots having a Republican edge. The district as a whole has a large Republican party edge, but split 50-50 on election night. The absentee ballots also have a Republican party edge, but not as much as the electorate as a whole. Thus, the party registration numbers for the absentee ballots suggests Murphy will do slightly better than he did on election night since the composition of these votes is slightly more favorable for a Democrat than the electorate as a whole.
I would remind people that Silver's "extrapolations" on election night were way off. Late into the night, he had Tedisco winning by something like 1000 votes.
I for one, find these wild swings (both ways) in the recanvassing very suspicious. The US voting system needs serious reform.
Nate,
Is there any historical data re trends in absentee ballots, e.g. whether and under what conditions they diverge from the allocation of votes within the county from which they come?
I would expect military absentee ballots to lean Republican, but absentee ballots from college students to lean Democrat.
Perhaps the asbsentee spike in Columbia is due in part to its proximity to NY City, where plenty of Columbia residents spend part of their time. It is close enough to the city where there are tons of weekenders who are politically motivated and they tend to lean democratic. I was one of those voters until I moved here full time a few years ago.
Islam as the basis for madern science and mathematics - when we were in the dark ages and burning books and doing the inquisition thing based on religion - the Islamis world was developing science and math:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_mathematics
"Mathematics in medieval Islam' or sometimes referred to as Islamic mathematics is a term used in the history of mathematics that refers to the mathematics developed in the Islamic world between 622 and 1600, in the part of the world where Islam was the dominant religion. Islamic science and mathematics flourished under the Islamic caliphate (also known as the Islamic Empire) established across the Middle East, Central Asia, North Africa, Sicily, the Iberian Peninsula, and in parts of France and India in the 8th century. The center of Islamic mathematics was located in Persia (including eastern part of present-day Iraq) , but at its greatest extent stretched from North Africa and Spain in the west and to India in the east.[1]
While most scientists in this period were Muslims and Arabic was the dominant language—much like Latin in Medieval Europe, Arabic was used as the chosen written language of most scholars throughout the Islamic world at the time—contributions were almost exclusively non-Arabs such as Persians, Berbers, Moors, Turks) and sometimes different religions (Muslims, Christians, Jews, Sabians, Zoroastrians, irreligious)."
Another take on the military ballots. Just so everyone is aware, as a consequence of a USDoJ suit, military and Federal overseas employees have until April 13 to return their ballots, although they needed a March 31 postmark as did all other absentees, which is how the number could well grow as Another Mike suggests. I would hazard to suggest that unlike the conventional rightward tilt of military absentee votes generally, our military may well more reflect the convictions of the NY population as a whole which is soft on or against the war.
JS
Ancient history again. As I recall the West defeated the Ottoman empire in WWI.
Anything they might have done lately that is worth praising?
It seems to me that other than Westernized countries like Turkey itself, the banner of Islam has been an overhwhelmingly malevolent force that has imposed a form of social tyranny upon those who must live under it and I cannot think of anything at all good about their culture.
Help me to get what specifically the Prez could have had in mind when he spoke of their contribtuions to not only the world in general but American society. That last bit really has me scratching my head. I mean, does he just make this stuff up b/c it sounds good to him? Diplomacy by sychopancy?
(follow me on twitter - PeteKent01)
Hey PeteKent,
If Islamic contributions to mathematics and science don't satisfy you, why not go watch Collin Powell's interview on MTP before the election, when he cited a Muslim soldier in the US Army who died for his (and yours and my)country.
And he isn't the only one.
That's more than you or I have done.
Jeff,
Nate didn't make any "extrapolations" on the night of the election.
Jeff --
I for one, find these wild swings (both ways) in the recanvassing very suspicious. The US voting system needs serious reform.
They are not suspicious. The vote reports on election night are unofficial results where the objective is to report quickly, compiled by people who have just worked a thirteen or fourteen-hour day staffing the polls. The recanvass (in my state, it's just called a canvass) is the official count, and is done very carefully. The reform that would do the most to allay your suspicions would be to ban reporting of unofficial results, but there's demand for them because most races aren't close and it lets people get the news sooner, and it lets campaigns celebrate on Election Night.
Jeff—
Wasn't that Sean?
davidsfr,
You miss my point. I know all about the Arabic number system!
But what can you point to in the modern era that has been done in the name of Islam that is worthy of praise as opposed to obbrobrium?
Certainly there has been no Islamic-inspired contribtuion to this country as the President suggested yesterday in Turkey.
Why make shit up?
And why defend the undefendable?
(follow me on twitter - PeteKent01)
The absentees are a little les R than the district. But what we want to know is how they compare with the election night voters, since that's the group who is calibrated to be 50-50. Those stats should be available.
------
PeteKent wrote:
"How about a social contribution... something more recent say since 1900???"
------
Besides roads, wine, aqueducts, and such, what has the Roman Empire ever done for us? Nothing, especially lately.
According to your earlier post, Obama praised Islamic "culture". How does art not qualify? He didn't specify the last century as a timeline either, so the post by js is a good summary.
I'm guessing you're more the hockey than the football type, seeing how easy you think it is to move goalposts.
I thought absentee ballots in general tended to skew older and therefore more conservative/Republican.
It's a mistake to draw conclusions about absentee ballots in a district based on a broad generalization of absentee ballots across the country, which may not even be correct.
I don't think we can generalize that much (yet) from the 2008 absentee ballots. Weren't those influenced by an unsually high number of students motivated to vote absentee by the rock star at the top of the ticket?
There's an even more fact-free assertion than the first one -- I doubt you can find a reliable source for it.
Especially in a low-turnout special election, the distribution of absentee ballots has a lot more to do with the effectiveness of the campaigns and local political party organizations in identifying potential supporters who need absentee ballots and doing GOTV to make sure they follow through. Conceptually, it's pretty simple, but having experienced people who know how to organize the effort can often provide the margin of victory in local elections.
Chris,
Interesting point on proximity to NY, but I think the larger concentration of NYC/20th CD voters is in Millbrook and Rhinebeck in Dutchess County, and Dutchess falls on the low end of the absentee spectrum. And I don't think Columbia, proportionately, draws more than the "Spa City" of Saratoga Springs. The only cause I can find that I really buy for disproportionate Columbia County absentees is organization.
Where did Obama specify a timeline in his reference to Islamic culture? I can't find one, could you please point it out to me?
There's enough valid criticism of what Obama said or didn't say (e.g. reneging on his pledge to recognize the Armenian genocide) without making stuff up.
PeteKent:
But what can you point to in the modern era that has been done in the name of Islam that is worthy of praise as opposed to obbrobrium?
"in the name of Islam"? "Islamic-inspired"? Where exactly did those phrases appear in Obama's speech?
Perhaps you could have been more honest in your original question, and just said "everyone knows that Islam inspires nothing but terrorism; how dare Obama suggest anything different!"
But to make another attempt that I'm sure you will also dismiss as insufficient, have a look at this list on Wikipedia (and yes, not everyone on the list qualifies, but there should be enough to satisfy your original question.) And in the future, you might try at least doing minimal research before coming here and demanding that we alleviate your ignorance.
I don't know, but this link that compares the number of Jewish versus Arab Islam Nobel Prize Winners speaks volumes about Islam's "contributions" to society and culture.
http://www.jewishmag.com/99mag/nobel/nobel.htm
@PeteKent and other islamophobes:
Since about 1800, the Muslim world has been in decline, both in terms of relative technology and economically. Likewise China and India, reversing that trend only around 50 years ago, give or take.
In the early modern period, most of the muslim nations were Imperial posessions of some sort (mostly Brittish.) This is handy, because it also explains the low level of development in Muslim countries like Uruguay and Vietnam.
It's true that more prosperous nations tend to be more secularized - but that's as likely to be cause as effect. I'm not a big fan of organized religion in general, and Islam in particular: and if anyone in the muslim world wants to decry the reactionary baggage of their religion, that's fair. But for Westerners to blame the religiosity of countries we are occupying, and/or which have totalitarian governments which we are propping up, is utterly disgusting.
That said, your original question was: "what is Obama referring to?". That question has certainly been answered - art, chemistry, math, the scientific method, an independent judiciary.
PeteKent,
I thought you were genuinely trying to become informed. I didn't realize that you were just trolling as usual. While you're at it, how about we take cheap shots at Christian cultures during the 500 years of Dark Ages. Islamic culture was flourishing then, and even preserving the legacy of earlier European cultures. Meanwhile, the Christians regressed nearly to the point of tribalism after the collapse of Rome.
So, I apologize for taking up any of your time. In the future I'll just remember that you're not interested in having an intelligent discourse. It's just something that's beyond your capacity.
ok i have an answer for petekent that will satisfy his needs. two rich saudi oil barons just paid for me to have all my mercury dental fillings replaced with gold....and they are raking up the leaves in my yard and are taking us out for crust filled pizza tonight...does that qualify?
PeteKent said...
Dwight,
I don't think we can generalize that much (yet) from the 2008 absentee ballots. Weren't those influenced by an unsually high number of students motivated to vote absentee by the rock star at the top of the ticket? I'll go with the ingrained habits of the snow birds down in FL over those of fickle youth!
Oh certainly. I think this will make an interesting data point. To see if the organization that was put in place has staying power beyond Obama himself being on the ballot. But even if Murphy does win the day with absentee I don't think it's conclusive proof. As Sam points out it could also be partially a factor of Gillibrand's organization too (keeping in mind that she isn't on the ballot either). It would become another data point though.
We shall see.
P.S. On Islam I think you are in danger of reverting to your standard douche baggery. Acknowledging the work in the foundation that our current technology sits on is entirely fair game for what is ultimately a diplomatic show of respect to someone that they wish to work with. More importantly a show of respect to the population that elects someone that they would like to work with in the future. Nitpicking over "what great achievement have done for us lately" is exactly the type of attitude that leads to other governments having to be standoffish with the Whitehouse to appease their population that don't enjoy being treated poorly by asshats.
Jeff: Being under 1,500 votes off in an election with a total of about 150,000 votes cast is not exactly what I'd call way off. That's less than 1% off.
Or 0.5%, depending on how you count (Fewer than 0.5% votes changed from Tadesco to Murphy would result in the current numbers, so each such vote both reduces Tadesco's total and increases Murphy's, since not a whole lot of people abstained, I'd imagine).
Great, Nate, NY-20 would have been solely of local interest if it hadn’t been artificially inflated as a referendum on President Obama.
Please permit this off-topic while we wait for the ballots to be counted. I‘m not looking for off-topic discussion, just a referral to a good legal-type site that discusses the Ted Stevens case and might answer my question: AG Holder dismissed with prejudice and Uncle Ted’s indictments went away. But what would happen if Private Citizen Uncle Ted became Senator Uncle Ted again? If there were a do-over election and Stevens won, would he be seated as a newly-elected senator who’s as clean as the driven snow, or would the Senate ethics rules demand resolution of his previous ethics charges before he could be seated? Thanks for any referrals and sorry for off-topic.
This is handy, because it also explains the low level of development in Muslim countries like Uruguay and Vietnam.
Uruguay? From wiki:
Uruguay is South America's most secular country. It has no official religion and church and state are separate. Religious freedom is guaranteed. Sixty-six percent of Uruguayans are Roman Catholics. Most Uruguayans baptise their children and marry in churches but less than half attend church on a regular basis. There is a small Jewish community in Montevideo (about 1% of the population) as well as several evangelical Protestant groups (about 2%). Macumba and Umbanda, religions of Afro-Brazilian origin, are the currently fastest-growing religions in Uruguay. Spanish is the official language of Uruguay and is spoken by almost all of the population. English is common in the business world though it is a minority language, as are French and Italian. Other languages include Portuguese and Portuñol, a mixture of Spanish and Portuguese. Both are present in northern regions near the Brazilian border.
And Vietnam? Also from wiki:
For much of Vietnamese history, Mahayana Buddhism, Taoism and Confucianism have strongly influenced the religious and cultural life of the people. About 85% of Vietnamese identify with Buddhism, though not all practice on a regular basis. About 8% of the population are Christians (about six million Roman Catholics and fewer than one million Protestants, according to the census of 2007). Christianity was introduced first by the Portuguese and the Dutch traders in the 16th and 17th centuries, then further propagated by French missionaries in the 19th and 20th centuries, and to a lesser extent, by American Protestant missionaries during the presence of American forces during the 1960s and early 1970s. The largest Protestant churches are the Evangelical Church of Vietnam and the Montagnard Evangelical Church. Two thirds of Vietnam's Protestants are ethnic minorities.
Do you think you can just spew shit and it be believed as fact? Is that how this site works?
Obviously, the answer PK's looking for is Ahmad Rashad. What with Jordan making it into the Hall yesterday, how can his greatest hagiographer NOT be considered an important contribution to American culture?
I'm baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!
Ted Stevens isn`t going back to the senate unless he runs in 2010 and knocks out Murkowski(doubtful)
OTHERWISE HE WAITS UNTIL 2014 WHEN HE IS 90!
there are no do over elections and the republicans who called for it looked stupid. Sometimes in life you get screwed. to bad for Stevens. He was a corrupt politician who sold his vote for whatever he could get,no great loss to alaska. Anyway he looks pretty fit for 85 so why not give it another shot at 90, hell Robert Byrd will probably still be there at 96 or whatever, if they can keep him alive i`m sure he`s going for Thurmonds record!
PeteKent—
Why make shit up?
And why defend the undefendable?
When I read the first I thought of Sarah Palin. When I read the second I thought of you on Sarah Palin.
Never forget that I lack "blog presence." I know I won't.
You're still a smile.
"I don't know, but this link that compares the number of Jewish versus Arab Islam Nobel Prize Winners speaks volumes about Islam's "contributions" to society and culture."
Not really. Just 'cause one group may have made "more" contributions (a proposition that is by no means proven by that list) doesn't mean the other group hasn't made substantial contributions of its own.
Mule Rider said...
I'm baaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaack!!!!
BWAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!!!!
*zzzzzzzzzz*
Can't wait for the Rich Racist Retard Republicants to moan about ballot boxes in trunks and whatnot.
Jeff hit it on target regarding Nate's projections on election night. All of a sudden, the votes he was projecting for Tedisco switched sides. Go know.
Must be the influence of living in New York instead of Chicago.
Mule Rider said...
Yawn. Nothing to see here....another poser sockpuppet. The blogger ID's don't match the original.
Besides, MR is either dead or in jail. Everybody knows that.
PeteKent said...
Nice try, Gregg.
But I don't think Obama was referring to art. How about a social contribtuion.
Pete, you obviously know fuck-all about art. I could explain it to you, but you're so dense it would be a complete waste of time. Nothing penetrates with you, not even simple facts it seems.
BTW, how's that BREAKING Ashley Biden story coming along? Where's the proof it was actually her on the tape? I mean, even the FReeptards haven't posted anything on it this past week.
For PeteKent. Here's what Charity Navigator has to say about an organization called Islamic Relief USA:
Islamic Relief USA strives to alleviate suffering, hunger, illiteracy, and diseases worldwide regardless of color, race, religion, or creed, and to provide aid in a compassionate and dignified manner. Incorporated in California in 1993, Islamic Relief operates a wide variety of projects, including education and training, water and sanitation, income generation, orphan support, health and nutrition, and emergency relief. Islamic Relief also sponsors many domestic projects, including homeless feedings, financial assistance, healthcare in underserved areas, the annual Day of Dignity program, providing food, medical care, hygiene kits, clothes, blankets, and more to homeless and underserved communities across the United States. Islamic Relief's largest domestic project was the response to Hurricane Katrina.
The site lists them as a 4 star charity.
Interesting answers on the whole contribtution of Islam thing. It is revealing to see how many would rise to defend a culture that in its modern incarnation is dedicated to their personal extermination and is responsible for the murder of thousands of US citziens on our own soil.
It is as instructive as the lengths by which the blathering Obama goes to prove how un-Bush like and different he is.
Remind me again, what contribtuions to American culture can we thank Islam for?
The Freedom Tower on the sight of the WTC does not count!
As an alternative exercise you sheep/fifth collumnists can spend some time cataloging the contribtuions of the Catholic Church to humanity.
I'll start with their tireless campaign to save the lives of the unborn.
Your turn!
(follow me now on twitter - PeteKent01)
Fuck you, PorridgePrick!
I've located your IP and am headed to your residence personally with my posse to fucking end your life. I'm sick of your disgusting shit. I've taken it too long, and now I'm going to kill your ass. Good thing I've got some hacker buddies who can trace that kind of shit.
You're fucked, assfuck!!
"I don't know, but this link that compares the number of Jewish versus Arab Islam Nobel Prize Winners speaks volumes about Islam's "contributions" to society and culture."
I'm Jewish and I find those lists incredibly embarrassing. Who are these fanatics and weirdos who go round totting up nobel prizes according to ethnicity?
The disparity is an artifact of Jews mainly being an immigrant population struggling to get ahead. You see similar high achievement now among the likes of Chinese and Indians.
Arabs meanwhile have in large part stuck in tin-pot autocracies cynically allowed to fossilise by Western powers. Arab populations in the West, like the Lebanese diaspora, have generally been very successful.
WV, amazingly enough: porrk!
Gluv,
Islamic Relief USA?
Never heard of them. They need a better PR agent
If a tree falls in a forest . . .
Pathetic!
Let us not forget who our enemies are and who has dedciated themselves to our destruction.
(follow me now on twitter - PeteKent01)
I'm comin' for ya PorridgeDribbler!! I'm tellin' ya, you're fucked!
I think I'll slice your head right off and then gut you like a fish. In front of your mom preferably. And any other family members I can round up.
I'll put your fucking guts in a bucket and piss and shit all over them before flushing them down the fucking toilet.
Then I'll burn the rest of your shit-fucking nasty carcass. Again, all in front of your friends and family.
My God, it has gotten nasty and violent in here rather quickly. This is kinda scary. Is it always like this?
Kinda hard to have good dialogue with death threats flying.
The Freedom Tower on the sight of the WTC does not count!
*sigh* There you go, strapping on the asshat again. There are a lot of screwed up things in the arab world right now. Not the least of which is how misogynistic outlooks permeate highly visible branches of Islam. Going around and killing people for very dubious reasons (which Islam doesn't exactly have a monopoly on) is another.
But news flash, Obama was in Turkey. What a great place to look at the positives in the history of Islam. Given that Turkey had roughly the same contribution to the WTC getting leveled as did Australia, Japan, and Canada (which is to say effectively nil) you've just stepped [back] over the Credulous Line ... while dropping a coiler on it. :/
Oh well, it was nice while it lasted....
PeteKent: It is revealing to see how many would rise to defend a culture that in its modern incarnation is dedicated to their personal extermination and is responsible for the murder of thousands of US citziens on our own soil.
At first I thought PeteKent had asked a serious question about Islam's contributions to modern American society. But that last line is such an exaggeration it makes me wonder about whether he was serious in the first place.
I don't use the term ridiculous often, but it is ridiculous to claim that modern Islam is dedicated to "personal extermination" and responsible for 9/11. I can take any group and tar it with the most extreme elements. I can say American Christians want to establish a biblical nation and ensure that the US is governed by biblical law--but that wouldn't make it true for any significant number of Christians in the US, even though some extremist Christians do take that view.
And if we're going to be fair, I can't come up with much that religion in general has contributed to modern American culture. For every positive aspect, one can wonder whether religion was a necessary component or come up with a negative contribution. They do good charity work, but that's not the exclusive domain of any particular religious group (Muslims do good charity work too) or even religious groups in general (plenty of secular groups do the same things). PeteKent mentions abortion, but opposition to abortion rights is hardly considered an unmitigated good by much of the population. Religious-based opposition to birth control and the use of condoms has increased the incidence of AIDS both here and worldwide. Opposition to the teaching of evolution has impinged the teaching of sound science (it's simply not an issue in other modern industrialized countries), which damages our global competitiveness.
I can agree with PeteKent that Obama may have been doing a bit of pandering. But that's what politicians do on occasion, and it's hard to get anywhere in politics if one is an atheist (I believe there is only one openly atheist member of Congress). And Obama's larger point is correct: we have nothing to fear from Islam. It's the extremist elements that resort to violence that are the problem. And those extremist elements are hardly the exclusive provenance of any one religion.
funny how an excellent site devoted to statistical analysis can be over run with lunatics so quickly. must be the influence of those blood thirsty muslims?
couldn't be the right wingers are a bit lost these days and acting out like junior high kids could it?
Dwight is next on my list. I'll carve him up into little pieces and feed him to his wife and kids, assuming he has any.
If not, I'll torture his sorry ass and kill him with one quick slit of his throat. After that, he's going into a wood chipper and ground up into hamburger meat. I'll feed him to his family and friends, and even his pets.
If none are applicable, I'll let the fucking buzzards eat his ass.
LOL... Nice one, sock puppet Mule Rider.
loner said...
Jeff—
Wasn't that Sean?
I believe it was. Damn facts.
gregg,
You're nothing but a bloodthirsty muslim apologist. I'll kill you too. My bloodlust for radical liberals can't be quenched. I'll hang you all in the gallows. I'll cut you all up and feed you to the swine. Your families will get pictures of your rotting carcasses in the mail.
BWAHAHAHAHAHA!!
@ Slater
It wasn't my post, but you seem to have missed the point about the "Muslim" countries like Uruguay and Vietnam. Clearly neither country can be called Islamic.
What the author of that post seems to be doing is using sarcasm to show that the real issue is not that Muslim countries don't create anything, but rather that the countries most affected by colonialism and European imperialism are the countries least able to make the specific contributions Pete Kent demands. The inclusion of Uruguay and Vietnam is to show that other non-Muslim countries affected by colonialism and imperialism are in the same predicament.
I can see how it's confusing, since sarcasm doesn't always translate as well in writing.
And I'd second the notion that the death threats need to stop. I've been part of some good comment conversations on this board, but there a couple of trolls on each side of the political spectrum that like to play stupid games and debase the discourse.
I'll give dsimon props.
He recogizes the pandering for what it is.
Sigh!
I guess I was just hoping for more from Obama. Nah, just another politician!
BTW studies show that the availability of birth control leads to more promiscuity which ultimately leads to disease and death.
God gave us morality to protect us from disease. He also gave us disease to protect us from immorality. It is a virtous circle.
Obedience to the will of God and obeying the Natural Law is actually quite easy. Only evil is complicated and requires enormous gyrations and risk-taking to encourage its embrace.
Perhaps one of you might have said the same about Islam, but you are not so wise and are easily entrapped!
Thank you for your time today!
(follow me to a better world on twitter -- PeteKent01)
This thread is unbearable! I'm leaving!
mule, so you would or would not be a mule skinner then?
I think it's really hard to say anything about how absentees will go. Remember Murphy was trailing until a couple weeks before. I just don't see him performing as well with absentees as the election day vote, which had momentum going his way.
It is somewhat reassuring that more absentees are coming from precincts that favor him, but right now I'm cautiously pessimistic.
I guess I'm prepared for an R win, so I will be pleasantly surprised if Murphy wins :)
Do you know what the only difference between people like Glenn Beck and Billo are when compared to homeless drunks raving mindlessly on street corners and in desperate need of a bath?
An audience.
Give em an audience, and they get powerful. Ignore em, and they turn into manic street preachers.
I live in the 20th District, and can report that there are a LOT of registered Republicans who actually vote Democratic. The reason is that the GOP has controlled this district forever, and they play hardball when it comes to patronage jobs. If you want a job in state or county government, it's traditionally been in your best interest to be a registered Republican. So we have a lot of closet Democrats who are registered GOP but will vote for Murphy in the privacy of the booth.
I wonder if the xenophobic contingent would be as up in arms if Obama had visited Athens and greatly praised the contribution of Greece to human culture?
Chrissake... yes, i'm a blasphemer. PK- you make this thread unbearable. You know damn well that most of us here are not scholars on the subject you raise. Even if we were to suggests ways of looking at this (as some already have), it's seems remarkably convenient and self-serving that you refine your question after people of good faith have provided you with a way of looking at this. If this thing matters so much to you, and if you're not going to research this matter yourself, then start your own dam blog and work it out there. Another solution- get a book or two or three. Heck, get an education in 20th Century Islamic Culture/History/Governance. But if you think you're going to get at 538 a fully thought-out, vetted, peer-reviewed dissertation on Obama's possible motives for saying what he said and how he said it, then you're out of luck. Better luck next time. Move on. Drop it. You know better than to ask that (loaded) question to a bunch of politics geeks.
While I recognize your right to participate, you have the responsibility to promote the health of discussion here. Your words and comments have shown you to be manipulative, self-serving, and vain. You know, the first time you make the comment, it's sincere. The second time it's understandable. The third time is thin ice. But really? How many times are you going to comment about your damn mystified sensibilities? We get it. WE GET IT. So, stop feigning ignorance. Yes, go huff and puff about these big bad meanies on 538, and go complain about your unfulfilled quest for truth and knowledge. Boo f'ing hoo.
VERMONT LEGALIZES GAY MARRIAGE
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/04/08/us/08vermont.html?_r=1&hp=&pagewanted=print
PeteKent has got to be one of history's most successful trolls.He posts the most obvious troller provocations and posters here fall all over themselves responding.
I hate to be a scold but WHAT THE HELL IS THE MATTER WITH YOU PEOPLE!
Isn't it "Otsego" not "Ostego" County?
PeteKent has got to be one of history's most successful trolls.He posts the most obvious troller provocations and posters here fall all over themselves responding.
His first post was nice enough. I know because it was also short enough that I took the risk of reading it. :)
But now he's pulled his asshat firmly back on...moving on.
Freedom Comes to Vermont
@Statler,
... and the obvious outcome at this point is more Democratic Party members in the State Congress as political groups opposing the bill look to line the "traitors" up against the wall and replace them with rookie one-plank-platform candidates.
He said that opponents of same-sex marriage would work hard to oust the five Republican House members who supported both the bill and the override.
"I can assure you right now that there are people in Vermont calling around their districts looking for someone to run primary races against them," he said. "People are upset."
PeteKent is disliked, disrespected (which is why he needs to post here, because so few follow him on twitter), and generally laughed at. Let him say stupid things. One thing even he knows is that he'll never be in a position of power, wealth, or influence, so his stupidity can't affect the rest of us. He's trapped in a world he can't affect. Let him play in his sandbox and feel good about himself.
PeteKent: BTW studies show that the availability of birth control leads to more promiscuity which ultimately leads to disease and death.
God gave us morality to protect us from disease. He also gave us disease to protect us from immorality. It is a virtous circle.
Whaaaa? Pete, I keep trying to give you a break. Then you come up with this stuff.
One could argue that God gave us brains to protect us from disease, and it would be a violation of God's will not to use easily available technology that He allowed us to develop. Why prioritize one argument over another?
And I don't know what "studies" PeteKent is referring to, but the good old USA has one of the highest teen birth rates in the developed world. The more "liberal" European countries do a far better job preventing STDs and unwanted pregnancies than we do. I'd say that's a pretty severe indictment of our more puritan approach to the subject.
And there is little doubt that the Bush administration's "abstinence" policies have been ineffective here (studies show that it's been a waste of taxpayer dollars) but also that its refusal to fund family planning clinics abroad on "moral" grounds has led to more death, particularly in Africa.
I guess I was just hoping for more from Obama. Nah, just another politician!
That's far from the case. We have to engage other cultures. Bush was an adamant failure at it. Obama recognizes it. I can tolerate some minimal pandering when it advances our mutual interests. But Bush's pandering was to his right wing base, and it worked against all of us. Most of "them" have similar interests to "us." Obama understands that in a way Bush never did, or was never able to communicate.
Obama has been honest about the costs of our wars, our tax policies, our Medicare policies, and put them in the budget so we can face those numbers. He has called torture for what it is (not "enhanced interrogation techniques"). Bush was dishonest about all of these things. Just another politician? Yeesh. Yes, he's a politician. But he's far better than most, and a sea change from what we've had before.
Among other things, Islam gave us Algebra. Would the U.S. have sent people to the moon without that?
Umm...Columbia County is the opposite of "close" to the city.
It goes: NYC, Westchester County, Dutchess County, Columbia County.
Metro North[the inexpensive commuter railroad] runs from New York City to Poughkeepsie[about the middle of Dutchess County].
Most folks from the city concentrate near the train stations, Red Hook, and Rhinebeck. Granted, Rhinebeck is CLOSE to Columbia County, but it is still Dutchess.
I for one, find these wild swings (both ways) in the recanvassing very suspicious. The US voting system needs serious reform.
What wild swings?
I mean, we're talking about incredibly small margins of victory. As such, SMALL changes swing it one way or the other.
A wild swing is when it swings back and forth by 10% per county re canvassed. I haven't seen reports of a more than a percent or so of change.
I'm perfectly content with a system which gets it correct within 5% of the actual vote, and does a recount when the results are within the margin of error.
The allowed absentee ballots in Minnesota have been counted and Franken has increased his lead to 312.
As the 312 vote margin is larger than the number of votes involved in the two other issues not ruled on yet (the "missing ballots" and the "double counted votes"issues),the three judge panel will be certifying Franken as the winner in a few days.
Then on to the Minnesota Supreme Court where hopefully Franken will declared the winner in short order.I would then guess SCOTUS will refuse the case.
I don't see why any of you guys waste your time on people like PeteKent, either. People like Kent are the same people who
1.) Still believe Iraq had WMD's
2.) Still believe that Ronald Reagan is coming back
3.) Still believe that Fox News and talk radio are actually informing them.
4.) Still believe that Dems are actually socialists which leads to Communists
All of this, while the rest of the country tries to move on and pick up the pieces of the mess that W and his cronies made of this great nation.
The facts don't bear these people out and no matter where you point them to, they still don't want to believe that their policies don't work and their elected leaders are pulling the wool over their eyes.
These people are like wrestling marks - "It's real, by god..." and have no idea that they are being worked by the very outlets that they trust all for the sake of the almighty dollar.
Ideologs have become the pc correct term for crazy people and there is real deepseated level of anger and resentment that is growing in their portion of this country. If no one has seen "Right America: Feeling Wronged", it is a look at the twilight zone as these people have been hypnotized by all of this foolishness...
As a forward thinker and a progressive, I pray that the worst does not happen over the next 4 to 8 years.
The worst isn't something happening to number 44, that's too easy to think of. Heck, some on the right would even support.
The worst would be something happening to his kids or to his wife. I pray to be proven wrong, but seriously - some of these people are outright scary...
I'm so glad I got that troll remover script. I tend to give trolls a couple days worth of posts before I decide if they contribute to, or degenerate.
GROG lasted about three weeks before he crossed the line from reasonable discourse to out-right fabrication and ass-hattery.
I don't remember the link to the thing, though.
Ivan said...
I wonder if the xenophobic contingent would be as up in arms if Obama had visited Athens and greatly praised the contribution of Greece to human culture?
Not Obama visiting Athens, but rather the President bringing Athens to the White House.
Fantastic read, by the way, courtesy of John Aravosis:
http://www.americablog.com/2009/03/my-trip-to-white-house.html
PK, you said:
"Help me to get what specifically the Prez could have had in mind when he spoke of their contribtuions to not only the world in general but American society. That last bit really has me scratching my head. I mean, does he just make this stuff up b/c it sounds good to him?"
Then you said:
"Certainly there has been no Islamic-inspired contribtuion to this country as the President suggested yesterday in Turkey.
Why make shit up?"
Maybe President Obama has a better understanding of the 15-17th Slave Trade than PeteKent. An emerging historical consensus recognizes that approximately 10-20 percent of the slaves brought over from Africa were Muslims. Antebellum South Carolinians’ "imported" slaves from Muslim regions of western Africa due to their familiarity with rice production. (see generally http://www.yale.edu/glc/gullah/02.htm).
PK, two things are clear:
(1) you are the epitome of a wing-nut, and
(2) you are “undefendable.”
Today is good news for McCain. Franken gaines another 100 votes from the recounted recount. Gay marriage is legal in Vermont thanks to the legislature there OVERRIDING a Governor Douglas' veto. This is the first time a state has legalized gay marriage with legislative action. The cherry on top is this posting about how Tedisco is doomed. What a stupid name. As for the likely physically unattractive political conservative who said students are fickle, well, that has long been disproven. College students are some of the most potent organizers there are, long evidenced since Nam.
Where did you get the Murphy lead numbers from? I saw on the NY Elections website that Tedisco is leading by 17 votes. Which is true?
It also said that more of the ballots are from Republican and Conservative Party registrants. Do the percentages matter more than the actual ballots?
It also said that more of the ballots are from Republican and Conservative Party registrants. Do the percentages matter more than the actual ballots?
Think of it this way:
In a given district, 80 percent of voters are Republican and 20 percent are Democrat.
Murphy, the Democratic candidate wins by 60 percent of the vote in that county. Obviously this means he is getting crossover from the Republicans.
Now, of the Absentee ballots, 60 percent are from Republicans and 40 percent from Democrats.
How many vote for which candidate is unknown.
The Republican spin is to say that they expect 60 percent to vote for Tedisco, going contrary to the actual voting results.
The Democrat spin is to assume that at /worst/ the breakdown of a 60/40 absentee vote will be the same as an 80/20 polling place vote.
I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Joannah
http://easypowerpaint.com
Conservatives that look at NY20 and see died-in-the-wool, southern style repubs miss the point. The district is rapidly changing as NYC'ers move north. KG proved that the repubs in this district are more independent than they are repubs, thus her ~65% win. Barack wasn't the rockstar in this race, KG was. And, this isn't a referendum on Barack or KG. Barack doesn't care about NY20 b/c he doesn't need more votes in the House. The incredible thing is that the Dems have already won. In the most "republican" district in the State, they put a completely unknown person up against a widely recognized, moderate repub politician. Murphy had only weeks to organize his campaign and the fact that Tedisco didn't blow him away speaks volumes about the sad state of affairs for repubs throughout New England.
Incidentally, the absentee ballots are weekenders from NYC (same phenomenon as seen in the 11/4 race), not seniors voting from Florida. College students are not a big factor in this race. The bigger schools upstate are not in the district.
Finally, PK is sad and pathetic. Nothing but a smug little brat tucked behind his computer sending his snide xenophopic missives into the ether. If he had, as I have, traveled through Turkey and seen the extraordinary craft and warmth of its people, or walked through Jakarta and seen the enthusiastic energy of its people, or had the opportunity to experience first-hand the incredible entrepreneurial spirit and intellect of the Iranians, along with their love of music and art, he wouldn't write these inane comments. But, he hasn't. So he sits and writes garbage. Islam has its demons, just as every religion does. The Catholics have their pedophiles and a leader who would rather see AIDS destroy Africa than encourage the use of condoms. The evangelicals have their ministers who preach on Sundays and smoke meth and pursue homosexual prostitutes the rest of the week. As for the moral virtues and social policy implications of advocating the use of birth control, the states that are the most conservative share the following characteristics:
Highest divorce rates
Highest rates of unwed teen mothers
Highest rates of infant mortality
Most disproportionate recipients of federal dollars ("red" states, on average, get 125% or more of their fair share of tax dollars)
Like I said, sad and pathetic.
Nate is overanalyzing this and coming to the wrong conclusion. R absentee ballots will skew R. D absentee ballots will skew D. Period. More R absentee ballots = Murphy loses.
It's a fallacy to conclude that because registered Rs outnumber registered Ds, and because Murphy got (slightly) more votes than Tedisco, that this somehow means that Murphy did well with Rs on election day. Isn’t it possible – even likely – that a significant majority of the Rs who voted (say 75%) did so for Tedisco, and that an equivalent percentage of the Ds who voted, did so for Murphy? If this same ratio were carried over to the absentee ballots, Tedisco would win by a pretty good margin.
The relevant figures would not be the number of REGISTERED Rs and Ds, but the numbers and proportions of Rs and Ds that actually CAST THEIR BALLOTS on election day? Where’s that figure? Can we really draw the conclusion that the ratio between the registered Rs and Ds would be the same as that between voting Rs and Ds?
How do we know that Rs did not stay home en masse or that Ds did not significantly outnumber Rs on election night? Isn't it possible that that Tedisco did as well or better with D's than Murphy did with R's?
Oh, and someone tell PK that the "Freedom Tower" is no more. It was a stupid name anyway - always reminded me of "Freedom Fries". That site should always be know as the World Trade Center site. Nobody should ever be able to take that away from us. And without reliance upon Arabic-based mathematics, the site would always remain just a hole in the ground.
PeteKent said...
blah, blah, blah . . . that is worthy of praise as opposed to obbrobrium?
Petey boy?
Can you define the word obbrobrium?
Or were you just cutting and pasting information from a site such as The American Spectator (http://spectator.org/blog/2006/12/15/re-drugs-and-compassionate-lib/print), a site that is known to be fair and balanced.
I think the word you were searching for is maybe opprobrium?
And as for the contributions of the Arab culture?
For one thing, you probably could not do much better than to do some research on Gerbert d'Aurillac, aka Pope Sylvester II, on his use of the abacus and Hindu-Arabic digits.
"According to his pupil Richer, Gerbert could perform speedy calculations with his abacus [based on Hindu-Arabic digits] that were extremely difficult for people in his day to think through in using only Roman numerals."
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
Regarding the "clump" of absentees in Columbia, it has nothing to do with Gillibrand.
Rather, it reflects the large number of weekenders/second home owners in that County who have chosen to register at their upstate property instead of in NYC (perfectly legal).
I was involved in a multi-year effort to increase these second home registrants. This happened well before Gillibrand first ran. We did three mass-mailings with registration forms to people getting their tax bills outside of the county. It worked.
Kilgore Trout,
To the contrary, I think that Nate is underanalyzing this.
Murphy needs to win about 25% of the Republican absentees, 90% of the Democratic absentees and 50% of the others in order to win (actually he can get away with slighly less than this).
It is pretty clear from looking at the county level results that Murphy received a larger number of votes from registered Republicans than Tedisco received from Democrats. You cannot win Warren County by 10% without them if you are a Democrat. Republicans outnumber Democrats 2-1 there. Over 150K voted, so this was not a particularly low turnout election. So there could have been some turnout skew, but probably not all that much. We don't know this for a fact and this makes me less confident about my prediction below, but based on the big turnout in Tedisco's base in Saratoga and the voting history of the district, I tend to doubt that this was a huge factor.
In any case, we know that recently Republicans in NY-20 have voted for Democrats at a greater rate than Democrats have voted for Republicans. This is how Gillibrand and Obama won in NY 20 despite the huge registered voter disadvantage. Again, this is really clear from the county level data - Obama won Saratoga, Warren, Washington and Essex despite huge Republican voter registrations advantages there. When 45%-50% of all voters are Republicans, getting every Democrat and a huge majority of Independents isn't enough to win without Republican support.
Finally, the Siena poll before the election had Murphy doing much better with Republicans than Tedisco did with Democrats but only split independents 50-50.
I tried to build a model to take into account Party ID as well as origin by county for absentee ballots. I had to estimate the party registration numbers for counties only partially in NY-20 based on the county party registration totals and 2008 vote totals for the part of the county in NY 20, but otherwise, I was pleased with the model. The two big unknowns that could throw this off at (1) what sort of absentee ballot programs the two campaigns had relative to each other and (2) whether there was differential turnout on election day voters by party registration, (3) whether there are demographic differences between election day voters and absentee voters that are not captured in County and Party ID statistics. So I think that there is a good chance that the model will be significantly wrong for one of these three reasons. But if none of these factors come into play (which unfortunately is probably not the case), it should be reasonably accurate. Since we don't know which direction the unknowns will throw the model off, it is still useful, I think.
Anyhow, based on what we do know, I am projecting that Murphy will win 3585 out of the 6726 absentees returned to date or 53.3%. This is 444 votes better than Tedisco and gives Murphy some margin for bad luck. We'll see soon!
Very interesting, Northriver.
For what is it worth, Columbia County provides Murphy's entire margin of victory (726-258) and then some in my model. The absentees are much, much more Democratic than the county as a whole which already was one of Murphy's best on election day. And there are a lot of them.
Saratoga County, on the other hand will probably continue to be a problem even though there are relatively few absentees from there.
Some interesting info above. One thing to consider, and is totally unknowable:
How many people sent in an absentee ballot, but then decided to go to the polls anyway? Enough to affect any of the estimations people have made? Slanted towards one party or the other, or evenly distributed?
Given the Minnesota recount and the arguments over the absentee ballots there, I'm sure several 'politically aware' people of both parties in NY-20 paid attention to the situatiom in MN, and decided to circumvent the entire 'absentee ballot' problem, but how many?
And an even bigger, even more unknowable question is will the Minnesota recount have any effect on future elections and how absentee ballots are considered by the voters; handled and counted by the poll workers and boards of elections; and will it be the prompt for legislative changes, not only in Minnesota (almost a given), but in other states also?
Mike in Maryland
My Blogger ID is http://www.blogger.com/profile/02848893412251095965
OK, I tracked down the exact party registration numbers for the counties. Turns out that I underestimated the difference between Republicans and Democrats is Dutchess and Rensellear by a good amount.
So my model now says that Murphy gets 53.95% of the absentee vote or 3,629 out of 6,726.
This seems aggressive, but if the weekend Democratic voter theory is correct in explaining the high number of Dem absentee votes in Columbia County, perhaps it is plausible. Columbia County explains almost all of the Democratic lean in absentee ballots and most of Murphy's margin in the model. The model believes that Murphy will pick up a significant number of votes in Columbia, Dutchess, Warren, Washington and Essex (in that order of importance). Tedisco should gain a lot of votes in Saratoga and a few in Rensselaer and Greene. Delaware and Otsego should be just about a wash. If the first counties to report don't follow this pattern, that will probably be indicative of which way the absentees will swing.
find additional NY-20 election info here...http://www.politickerny.com/2930/expect-delays-tedisco-murphy-goes-court
yes, preventing ballot counting by court order... whre have i heard that before? typically Repugnant attempt to control perceptions by keeping ballots uncounted
@calandra_speaksout
Yeah, cause Franken definitely didn't want to prevent votes from being counted either...
At least please be intellectually honest. Both sides were doing what most benefited themselves. Both sides at times wanted more ballots to be counted, and both sides at times argued to prevent ballots from being counted. But unfortunately, it seems that some people think only the other side is evil, and their side can do no wrong...
Murphy ahead in absentee count in Delaware and Dutchess County. Also small lead in Rensalear but not all counted there. This blog seems to have latest info.
http://www.thealbanyproject.com/frontPage.do
At this point, I think that Murphy should be strongly favored to win this thing. Early results are looking ugly for Tedisco. My model was projecting Murphy to win 53.95% of absentees before they started opening them. Murphy looks like he might be overperforming that model in the ballots openned so far:
He is outperforming my model in Delaware county where he picked up 20 votes instead of 4. The few military ballots could push this back closer to 4 if they favor Tedisco strongly - but at worst Murphy will perform similarly to the model.
In three towns in Dutchess county, he is on pace to get the 120 or so gain that the model predicts in Dutchess - the three towns that have reported seem pretty representative based on 2008 election results. This is a good sign, however, probably only about 10% of absentees there have been counted, so it is still early there.
Rensselaer is probably the best news for Murphy so far. My model predicted Tedisco to pick up around 30 votes. So far Murphy is up by 10 votes with Tedisco having challanged 20 ballots and Murphy only having challanged 4. There are still 29 military and overseas ballots to be counted as well. The bottom line is that Murphy should be no worse than about even in a county that Tedisco should have won. Saratoga and Greene are the only other counties where I forecast Tedisco to pick up more votes. He is running out of places to pick up votes to offset Columbia, Dutchess, Warren and Washington.
Columbia county is the only result that might be good for Tedisco. In 7 districts (out of 58), Murphy picked up 40 votes. Why is this good for Tedisco? Unless these are small districts (which is entirely possible) or districts more Republican than the county as a whole, this is considerably less than the margin the model would have expected for 13% of Columbia county. So Murphy might pick up closer to 200 votes there rather than 500. Since this is probably his best county in terms of absentees, that would be good for Tedisco. But until I learn which districts have been counted, it is hard to say anything for sure.
The bottom line is that in the three counties where absentees can be compared to election day returns, Murphy is doing better than he has to.
Tedisco needs some combination of the following three things to happen:
1) Big win in Saratoga absentees (significantly more than a couple hundred margin)
2) Big win in Military and Overseas absentees.
3) Gain votes from recanvas in Greene County
Any of these are possible, but at this point, the odds seem to strongly favor Murphy. Unless trends change, it might not even be close enough to fight about in court.
It seems that Tedisco people are aggressively challanging second home owners in Columbia County:
http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/4/9/718067/-NY-20:-Urgent-distress-call-from-Columbia-County
If they really challanged this many ballots and still lost a net of 40 votes in only 12% of the county, then Tedisco is probably in really big trouble there too. Frankly, we might be looking at a situation in which the Republicans challange lots of votes and still are behind before the challanges are adjudicated.
thanks ira, if this pans out it will be great news for us here in ny 20. flipping columbia county from repelican to democratic over the past years is an amazing story whatever the reasons. i've been phone banking the area since the first gillibrand race but was in town politics for more years and this shift is heartening. hope murphy pulls in out...
@ Ira: You posting your stuff anywhere else --like, with data?
Would be a helluva resource to have, even if your model turns out to be completely screwy (hey, nuttin' wrong with teachable mistakes made in the light of day so long as nobody gets killed, maimed or made late for supper, right)?
Top work in any case --would like to see it in greater detail, including geographical (I really don't know the territory but would love to spend a week @ the racetrack), if possible.
Projections from my model are:
Murphy % Votes
Columbia 73.8% +468
Delaware 50.8% +4
Dutchess 59.0% +122
Essex 63.0% +65
Greene 46.8% -29
Otsego 48.7% -5
Rensselaer 46.9% -27
Saratoga 43.9% -261
Warren 56.4% +133
Washington 56.4% + 80
Total 53.9% +532
I now think that I might be overestimating Murphy in Columbia by a bit because of the way I accounted for Party ID in the absentee ballots. But I don't have time to redo it now and in any case Murphy will win big there.
Have to run now, but I can share the raw data by e-mail if you tell me where to send it. I'm a total novice at this, so my calculations shouldn't be taken too seriously. But early returns suggest that they might have some value as a baseline.
After living in Iran for 2 years, during its revolution and hostage crisis (working for UPITN at the time), whenever I read comments like PeteKent's, I can only think "Ignoramus"- get off your freakin' couch, educate yourself and experience the world before you make your asinine remarks based upon your asinine prejudices. And no, I am not Muslim.
@ Ira: Click on my username, follow the link to my blog, and bookmark it.
I'll be hosting a live-blog tonite (a chat, more or less) after 7 PM EDT to discuss NY-20 and try to get a sense of where things are and would very much like to see you there.
It'll be open for a few hours, so don't worry about showing up "on time" if it's inconvenient --just drop in when you can, and we can workshop your data, methods and findings. It's a friendly crowd that will welcome you warmly --hope you can make it in.
@ 51st Ward Precinct Captain: I'll try to make it tonight. I hope that we will know more by tonight.
Since Tedisco apparently picked up 51 more votes in the recanvass in Greene county, Murphy now needs to win absentees by 69 votes or more. I still think that he will do this, but there is less margin for error now.
thanks ira, i'll check in tonight.
tedisco is going to win, lol
I decided that I doubled counted for changes in party ID between absentee ballots and registered voters. I treated a 1% change in the difference between Democratic and Republican ballots as being worth .65% to Murphy, whereas a better number would be .325%. This is based on the idea that about 90% of Dems vote for Murphy, 25% of Republicans and 50% of the others. This only matters in a few counties, such as Columbia, where the absentee ballots differ a lot in terms of party ID for the voter population in the county as a whole. The .325% is just a guess based on opinion polls - it doesn't matter that much if it is off in a few points in either direction. But the .65% figure that I was using before is off enough to make a real difference. The more correct version is this:
County, Murphy %, Net Votes for Murphy
Columbia 65.1% +296
Delaware 50.3% +2
Dutchess 55.25% +72
Essex 59.1% +31
Greene 45.5% -41
Otsego 48.7% -5
Rensselaer 47.7% -21
Saratoga 44.4% -207
Warren 56.1% +127
Washington 56.5% + 80
Total 52.5% +336
So far, my bad model posted in the comments above seems to be more predictive than the corrected model here. Obviously this is a good sign for Murphy since the bad model is more friendly to him. He seems to be outperforming results that can be predicted from the election day results across the board by a small margin. This is true in Delaware and Rensselaer and looks to be true in Greene, Dutchess, and Columbia if we can extrapolate from partial results.
NY-20 live discussion up and running until we've had enough.
Come share the knowledge; early turnout very light...
PLEASE! Someone from NY tell the rest of us what is happening?!
i'll try cos. absentee ballots are being counted very slowly ( overseas ones won't start being counted until 4/13). repelicans are objecting to lots of them out of columbia county trying to say if people live in nyc and own a home up here and voted up here it is somehow illegal even though this has been settled in court cases in the past ( you can vote from a first or second home, your choice, just not both ). here are links to local rags that have some details:
http://www.thealbanyproject.com/diary/6242/ny20-murphy-up-by-49-columbia-county-is-make-or-break-says-gop
http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/04/murphy-ahead-by-49-votes-right-now.php
my guess is that the absentees overall will break for murphy and he will win a squeaker...but it's a guess.
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