9:29 PM: The AP has now called the race for Quigley. So, why did he win?
The answer begins with name recognition: Quigley has been appearing on ballots in IL-05's environs for over a decade now, as he was first elected to the Cook County Board of Commissioners in 1998. Although most voters probably have no idea what the Board of Commissioners does, they know Quigley's name, and that's worth something in a 12-candidate field. By contrast, Feigenholtz' and Fritchey's State House districts cover just a small fraction of IL-05's territory.
The rap I heard against Feigeholtz, who had the SEIU's endorsement and a lot of money in the race, is simply that she fell somewhat flat on the stump. Not dislikable by any means, but just a little stiff, unable to engage votes in an election where they were having a great deal of difficulty engaging.
9:13 PM: Quigley now leads both John Fritchey and Sarah Feigenholtz by about 2,400 votes with 88% of precincts reporting. There probably aren't more than about 6,000-7,000 votes remaining to be counted, and those votes are being split amount literally 12 candidates, so it's next to impossible to see how he loses.
_____
Cook County Commissioner Mike Quigley, whom we dubbed the favorite last week to succeed Rahm Emanuel, appears as though he'll be the next Congressman from Illinois' 5th Congressional District. With about 70% of the ballots in, Quigley leads John Fritchey by about 2,100 votes and Sara Feigenholtz by about 2,500 in city of Chicago precincts (.pdf), more than enough to offset his slight deficit in the suburbs.
The Republican race, for the moment, is too early to call, with Tom Hanson and Rosanna Pulido within about 100 votes of one another amidst very low turnout.
3.03.2009
IL-05: Quigley Appears Headed for Congress
@ 8:48 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
21 comments
Ridiculously low turnout and to many candidates makes me think the NY system - nominating a candidate and skipping a primary altogether - has some merit.
I personally really like the idea of the jungle primary. Gives the 3rd parties a chance, which i think we need more of in the USA. That and it can give some pretty hilarious match-ups.
Can anyone tell me what Quigley's political leanings are? Liberal? Moderate? Conservative?
Speaking of close elections, are there any updates on the Franken-Coleman front? I haven't heard any news from that race in a number of weeks.
Quigley's considered something of a Mr. Clean on the Cook County Board of Commissioners.
Shame it looks like we'll be losing him to D.C., if for no other reason than that County Board President Todd Stroger will appoint whoever Richie Daley tells him to appoint as a replacement.
On the Coleman v. Franken election contest, you can fill your boots every weekday from 9:00 AM Central @ The UpTake --live streaming vid from the courtroom, archived stuff galore (which you could browse right now) and a live blog filled with a merry band of bigbrains to end 'em all.
The state of play as of now: Franken campaign presenting their rebuttal case, with Coleman's side having rested its own "provisionally" yesterday. Things are proceeding with stunning swiftness all of a sudden --like magic!.
For exhaustive daily summaries, check out WineRev's Kos diary.
WBBM Radio reports @ 9:00 local time that with 85% of the vote in, Quigley will win the Dem primary, and that Feigenholtz and Fritchey have called the apparent winner to concede.
Two things
1. Not that I'm worried, but when is the general election for this seat?
2.This kind of race is exactly the kind where a jungle primary might not get the voters' true intent. If there are 12 Democrats and 2 Republicans running, it's possible that the 2 Republicans would end up with the 2 highest vote totals because, even though the district is (say) 80% Democrat, that vote is being split 12 ways.
Gotta love Nate's lack of long term memory. Two weeks ago, he basically endorses Feigenholtz. Now he claims he picked the winner last week when he attempted to hedge his bets. C'mon, Nate, just fess up, cut out the intellectual dishonesty and either (a) own up to your original call or (b) acknowledge that NO ONE, especially you, could gauge this race, NO ONE had a reliable model for this one.
Rhaomi said...
Speaking of close elections, are there any updates on the Franken-Coleman front? I haven't heard any news from that race in a number of weeks.
Coleman has rested his case, asking that the election result be "set aside." See the article in the Star-Tribune.
Bandar,
Since the first line of the link about Quigley admits the earlier pick of Feigenholtz and that Nate had been forced to look again based on more information, not sure how you can claim it was dishonest - unless you assume Nate doesn't expect people to click on links he provides. That post is full of admissions that this was a near impossible race to call, but does end with Quigley as the 2-1 favorite.
So get over it, already.
Ron:
"Two things
1. Not that I'm worried, but when is the general election for this seat?"
April 7.
"2.This kind of race is exactly the kind where a jungle primary might not get the voters' true intent. If there are 12 Democrats and 2 Republicans running, it's possible that the 2 Republicans would end up with the 2 highest vote totals because, even though the district is (say) 80% Democrat, that vote is being split 12 ways."
Perhaps in another race with another demographic, but highly unlikely in one like this. The reason there were 12 Dems vs. 6 Repubs in this primary is that the district is so overwhelmingly Democratic. Mike Quigley's current vote total is 10,074. Rosanna Pulido is winning the GOP nomination with...808.
In fact, 8 of the 12 Dems received more votes than the winner of the GOP primary, and the 6th place finisher in the Democratic primary (Charlie Wheelan- 3004 votes) has almost as many votes as all the Republican candidates combined (3225).
Frankly, almost everyone in the 5th district would rather see Mike Quigley and John Fritchey face off on April 7. Well...except Mike Quigley.
Oh god, apparently the republican nominee is a freeper
I got linked to this- http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2198730/posts
For what it's worth, Quigley is decently liberal and a lot of the Chicago political machinery is not enamored of him because of his reformer tendencies.
I am disappointed that neither Tom Geoghegan or Charles Wheelan got closer to sniffing victory. (I voted for one of those two, and literally didn't make my decision until I put pen-to-ballot.) It would have been nicer to see an "outsider" break into the tier of politicians at the top of the results.
That said, I'm not completely unhappy that Quigley won; we could certainly have done worse.
The number of Dem candidates in the Illinois run-off reminds me of how many there are in the rare instances when Maryland's 7th District has an open seat.
Our current representative is Elijah Cummings, first elected in a special election in 1996 to replace Kweise Mfume. If I remember correctly, there were something like 17 or 18 candidates in the primary field on the Democratic side alone.
The previous two Congressmen representing the 7th were Parren J. Mitchell (1971 - 1986) and the aforementioned Mfume (1987 - 1996), both who had a dozen or more opponents in their first primary.
I know the GOOPer TROLLS will not appreciate the excellent representation Maryland CD-7 has received for the last 38 years, but the constituents of the district have received excellent representation from their elected Congressmen, at least IMO.
FWIW, in response to my question to Quigley about his position on gay marraige, Aaron Hunter (on Mike Quigley's staff) wrote to me last week with this:
"Mike supports gay marriage, and would push for it when the issue arises in Congress. Naturally, he will fight any attempts (such as those in the past) that seek to amend the Constitution to ban gay marriage.
He prefers gay marriage to civil unions, but also understands that these things happen over time and he'll be cognizant of the powerful effect of steady change."
On the assumption that support for gay marriage is one of the most reliable indicators of "liberalness", you have your answer.
Gregory
Gregory, thanks for your mention of Quigley's position on gay marriage. That's nearly ideal, honestly.
One poster mentioned this earlier, but the main issue with Quigley is what happens to his County Board seat. Many serious, contentious issues have been decided by one vote. If Stroger gets to appoint his replacement, as the previous poster suggested, his election will really set county government back. I hope when that board seat is up for election, Quigley makes a strong, clear endorsement of a non-Stroger/machine candidate.
Last thing-- when I went into vote yesterday and saw the order of names on the ballot-- Wheelan first, Feigenholtz second, Quigley second to last-- I was pretty certain that Feigenholtz was going to win. Glad to see that wasn't the case.
Stroger doesn't appoint replacements to the County Board; Quigley's replacement will be voted in by the party committeemen whose districts overlap his.
Though a lot can be said about Cook County Democratic Party officials, the ones who get a say in this one are generally pretty good, and the residents of the 10th district are politically active enough to demand a replacement of Quigley's caliber.
Even in the worst case scenario, Quigley would've been up for reelection in 2010 anyhow, on the same ballot as Todd Stroger. The growing groundswell for reform will almost certainly take out Stroger and should do the same to Quigley's replacement, should he turn out to be an establishment stooge.
Cheers to you ZO for correcting my misstatement of fact on the replacement mechanism for Quigley on the CCBOC (and for being so gracious about it to boot; you don't see that very much on teh Innertoobz these days).
Yeah, I think that the Blagojevich thing, and to a lesser extent Burris, has given the Illinois Democrats a psychic enema of sorts --which is a helluva lot better'n getting one @ the polls.
Between Pat Quinn in the governor's mansion and Quig's pending election to Congress, the Cook County Dems have all the makings of a soft landing to this ongoing (neverending?) winter of wretchedness.
We shall, as ever, see --and it'd be nice to get somebody to challenge Richie whom the voters could be confident of finding, grabbing and managing the complex levers of municipal government around here. Just walked past Millennium Park last week and then onto Jackson Boulevard off of Michigan Avenue, and the sidewalk was so rutted that my wheeled luggage nearly ceased to be wheeled.
I've got to believe that somebody could do better --and how long's that guy been running our town again?
@Mr.Man: I don't know about Illinois, but in a lot of places it is required that the ordering of names not be the same on all ballots, shuffled around in some manner so that nobody gets an advantage from being on top.
I was one of the few people who voted in last week's primary election. (And I had the strong impression that Nate Silver was pushing for Feigenholtz). I'm glad she didn't win. She ran campaign commercials that trashed Quigley as a buddy of Todd Stroger; and they were effective. I had decided to vote for her until I read in both the Sun Times, and the Trib that she was full of it and that Quigley was one of Stroger's biggest opponents. That sealed the deal for me and I voted for Quigley.
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment