2.05.2009

In This Corner, Sarah Palin...

On Tuesday, Alaska Governor Sarah Palin announced that she was endorsing Rick Perry, Texas' incumbent governor, who is expected to run for a third term in office in 2010. Perry may face a vigorous challenge from Kay Bailey Hutchison, who is reportedly giving strong consideration to dropping out of the Senate to pursue a gubernatorial bid.

So Palin is basically picking Perry over Hutchison. But why is she doing so? Why feel the need to get involved in the race at all?

Texas is a big state and will have a lot of delegates up for grabs during the Republican primaries in 2012. Having the favor returned in the form of an endorsement from Perry would be valuable to Palin at that time.

The problem is that Rick Perry isn't especially likely to be Texas's governor in 2012. Rather, Hutchison is. A Texas Lyceum (.pdf) poll conducted in June showed Hutchison with a 36-22 lead over Perry among prospective Republican primary voters. Hutchison also polled the race herself, and -- the usual caveats about internal polls applying -- gave herself a 55-31 lead over Perry. And Perry's approval ratings are well below par, with 42 percent of Texans saying he's doing a good job as governor and 58 percent a poor one.

I happened to be watching Hutchison give an interview moments after Palin's name was announced as John McCain's VP pick in Septmeber, and she was -- shall we say -- rather nonplussed about the situation, scowling the whole time as she searched for ways to damn Palin with faint praise. Hutchison, of course, may also be eying a 2012 bid of her own -- and in the dumbed-down world that we live in, the perception may be that there's no room for more than one prominent female candidate in the GOP primary.

So this seems intended as an elbow in Hutchison's ribs. Whether this is personally motivated on Palin's behalf or there is some political calculation by which this makes sense is hard to say. But in either event, it looks to me like she's bet on the wrong horse, and the move shouldn't inspire much confidence in Palin's handlers.

60 comments

Erik said...

Rick Perry is only running for his third term in 2010.

Jason said...

Long time reader, first time poster.

This is what precisely what Palin should be expected to do. Perry, or Governor Hair, as we like to call him down here, represents the same backwards blindly ultra-conservative wing of the Republican party that Palin does.

On the same note, Hutchinson is much more moderate "common sense" type of Republican - or at least that's the impression she gives.

Either way, each will have a pretty healthy fight against the very popular Mayor White of Houston famous for having been whined to by Gov. Hair because the mayor cursed at people dragging their feet with the Hurricane Ike recovery.

White would crush Perry, and Hutchinson would probably have a pretty tight race against White.

Either way, Palin went with her heart, which unfortunately for her, has no relation to political reality.

Love your blog! Go Maroons!

former_covansian said...

Oh, those Republican women... I was so amused today watching a vote in Senate with everybody voting strictly party lines; everybody, but Olympia Snowe. Ms Snowe, what are you doing among Republicans?

AlaskaGuy said...

Aaarrrrrrggggghhhhhh!!!!!

Can't. Take. Any. More. Palin. Stories.

GayIthacan said...

Nate:

And when has Palin made a 'right' call?

Another misstep by the Queen of Mistakes.

Jallenrule said...

Why must we continue give a shit about Sarah Palin? Really? Stop talking about her. If she manages to keep people talking about her all the way until 2012, we will all need to take a long look at ourselves in the mirror, and ask ourselves what in the fuckety fuck are we doing w/ our lives?

Mark said...

Obama could be the worst president we've had since James Buchanan and Sarah Palin still couldn't scrape up 40% of the vote.

If the GOP doesn't nominate someone like Mark Sanford, Tim Pawlenty, Kay Bailey Hutchison, or (maybe) Bobby Jindal for 2012, they're going to get slammed to the mat again. Sarah Palin is simply not presidential muster. She may give Joe Six-Pack a raging boner, but she will never win over anyone who isn't either ignorant or a traditionally straight-Republican voter.

I picked Obama over McCain and I'm willing to give his ideas a try. But if his plans for picking up the economy and reshaping our future misfire, I'm probably going to support Sanford in 2012 and just hope he doesn't get a chance to fill a Supreme Court vacancy.

Peter Davis said...

Aww shucks, what happened to Shawn's fake Obama interview?

Ira in Texas said...

As a native Texan I suggest that readeres not underestimate Rick Perry to run a dispicable primary campaign against Hutchinson and pull it off. He is popular with the local cultural conservatives who make up 60% of our the primary voters. He was behind by 10% to John Sharp a week out and slimed him with a million dollars from Bob Perry in the Valley making up wild stories. Good Harir is not much liked here but seems to know how to appeal to Texas voters.

PeixeGato said...

Is Texas the only state where someone can become governor with less than a majority? Didn't Perry only get 35% or so of the popular vote last time? I mean, I understand it was a crowded field, but how can someone govern with the support of only 35% of the people?

Just a question...

dsmith77 said...

Forget referring only to GOP women, the entire elite leaders of the party is nuts! From the indefatigable Palin to the heartbeat of America John McCain to everybody's favorite soap box Limbaugh to the chameleon Joe the, uh, uh, plumber-turned-war-critic-turned-political-strategist.

Whatever will become of the Republican party? *snicker*

Oh and I forgot about Superman, you know, Steele. Anybody dug up some kryptonite on this joker yet?

peter said...

Thousands of years into the future, archeologists and anthropoligists are going to sift through the wreckage of our society and discover that for a time, Sarah Palin was a relevant figure.

What an embarrassment for humanity.

Jack-be-nimble said...

Hutchison is not a conservative. She is barely a Repub. When Palin was nominated Hutchison gave Palin the stink-eye and didn't support the nomination. Also, Palin is good looking with Kay being old and frumpy.

Counter-revolutionary said...

Uh, Bill White is running for Senate, not Governor.

Least that's what I heard. I'm from Dallas, so I'm not as familiar with the mayor. Tough being a Democrat in Texas tho.

The Texas Republican party is one of the most lethargic parties of any state, anywhere. They are fat and happy, and Hutchinson running at the state level may be what they need to wake them out of their slumber. Texas Republicans do not want to risk the Senate seat, and would have trouble forgiving KBH if White or some other Democrat won, but something tells me she's just sick of the Senate.

Something tells me redistricting will be big in 2010 as well, with Texas set to gain as many as 4 EVs. Republicans have a razor-thin margin in the Texas House.

As to Palin, something tells me she's pretty irrelevant. She may have her own concerns in her own state if the price of oil stays low.

the Senator said...

You should read the blogs at TexasMonthly.com like Burkablog and State of Mine. Paul Burka, our "dean" of texas politics, handicapped the 2010 Governor's race in the recent print issue. It's a toss up. You can't rely on the polling this far out. And if Rick Perry is good at anything, its winning elections. The guy has single-handedly retired more Texas politicians than anybody else. The count so far? Two former state comptrollers (Sharp and Strayhorn), a state land commissioner (Hightower), a former congressman (Bell), a wealthy banker who dropped $100M of his own money (Sanchez). And those are just the big names.

Gov. "Good Hair"/"Adios Mofo" Rick Perry: where Texas politicians go to die.

melissa said...

Isn't Texas also a big oil state with no regulation or something like that?

Anyways, Alaskans make get their annual welfare check from Bible Spice because of the feds and the price of oil.

So, it would be a good idea for Bible Spice to be best friends with the Texas governor, who is also a oil state.

I am always sad that governor good hair was not the nominee for the vice president.

She is moderately Pro choice, in that she voted for all every Pro Lies votes but do not believe that Roe v. Wade should be overturn and support one or two Pro choice measures and she is pretty much conservative on every other issues.

She has more experience than Palin in the senate and perhaps as a new governor? She been in the senate since '94.

Jeff said...

I think Palin is just trying to stay in the news. Hutchinson has a much larger basis of power in TX, as she tends to be much more moderate than Gov. Good Hair (Perry is second only to Blago on the "ridiculous haircut scale"), and she is also much more respected. Perry tends to want to resolve every issue with cutting taxes, even to the point of adding taxes in one sector (business franchise taxes) to reduce them in another (property taxes).

As for Houston Mayor White... he is pretty popular in the Houston area, but the question mark is whether that popularity can translate into statewide votes.

melissa said...

Oh, One more thing. I like your four most powerful republican women but here is something I learn.

If senator good hairs runs for and win the governor seat, this would leave 3 republican women left.

Snowe, Collins, and Murkowski.

However, if Murkowski is somehow defeated by Palin in the primary or lost the election, than it would leads to + or - three with either Snowe and Collins or Snowe, Collins, and Murkowski/Palin(?)

If Palin?Murkowski lost in Alaska thus leaving only two republican women senator, what do you think this would means for the republican party since they are all losing their women?

Would this shift the balance of power to Snowe and Collins being the most powerful female senators in the republican party?

clarkejeffrey said...

I watched that same interview. I don't think she was damning her with faint praise.

I think she had honestly never heard of Palin before (she asked is that how you pronounce it...thinking it might be prounounce Paul-in).

Its hard to praise someone you have never heard of before. You're like ummm I guess they are good enough. I'm sure Huchison saw the pick and said "Its obvious you were trying to brownnose to women. Why didn't you pick someone qualified like......ME!!!?

You are probably right about there only being room for one woman in the GOP primary. The thing is that the last thing that Palin needs is to pick a fight like that right now.

Ps. I would have thought that having two Afr Americans running for GOP chair probably doomed both, but it didn't work out that way

Penny said...

I think 2010 may be the last year a Republican wins the governorship in Texas for quite a while, but I would be shocked and amazed if a Dem took it in 2010.

Part of the problem is that Texas doesn't have a bench of Dems that have been elected statewide. White may be really well known in Houston, but he isn't elsewhere in the state. Houston, Dallas-Fort Worth, San Antonio, Austin, El Paso, Corpus Christi, McAllen, Lubbock, etc. all have their own media markets, none of which pay much attention to the others. Add in the conservative bent of the media - Belo, etc. and it is really hard for a Dem to get traction statewide.

The media-market situation means Texas is a case where demography is destiny, and the demographics aren't there yet. They will be, but not by 2010.

anthonyy said...

This is kind of scraping the barrel, it just isn't a story. Palin wants to establish herself as the popular leader of the conservative wing of the GOP, and this is the way to do it. Of course she doesn't want moderates defeating encumbent conservatives, of course she wants encumbent conservatives to owe her favours. Especially as Perry if reelected would still be governor in 2014, when Palin really will start running for President. She would be mad to run in 2012 and there is nothing in this story to suggest that she will. Even if Perry loses, it won't harm her, as she will have strengthened her position with the conservative base by supporting him.

Another Mike said...

Perry is a big cultural conservative. Palin is playing to the base, which is usually a good move for winning a primary. And, at this distance, only the most politically active will be paying attention and possibly remembering in three years, so no big downside wtih low information/general election only voters. Also, Hutchison may have presidential ambitions, so it's never too early to start tearing your oponents down. I don't think Perry wins, but not a bad move politically for Palin.

stucopro said...

Saw my first Palin 2012 bumper sticker today. About ran the dumb sonofabitch off the road.

ChuckT said...

The world will be a much different place in 2012 and Sarah Palin will be long forgotten.

Scott said...

Hopefully -- while sweet-talking the Texas folk -- Sarah will have the good taste to not fuel the rumor about Alaska contemplating splitting into TWO states . . . thus making Texas the THIRD-largest state.

But ever since our esteemed governor's hilarious "turkey day" press conference, well, nothing that she does would truly surprise me. :-)

And hey, cut us Alaskan voters at least a little bit of slack, despite Sarah. After all, we did (at least barely) give "Uncle Ted" Stevens (a.k.a. "Senator-Series-of-Tubes") the heave-ho.

amyers said...

If Sarah Palin really wants to be president, she needs to go back to Alaska and face the fiscal crisis her state is almost certainly about to face. Any Republican governor who proves to be capable of handling a budget shortfall in their state has a good chance at winning the nomination in 2012...even a sideshow act like Palin. If Alaska's economy struggles compared to other states, her political career is over, simple as that.

juvanya said...

PeixeGato, we don't have runoffs in America. what do you think, we're democracy-hating communists or something?

KBH won't run for president. She'll be 69. Yeah women are more resilient compared to men as the age, but that's really old.

Brian said...

"Is Texas the only state where someone can become governor with less than a majority?"

No. Gov Pawlenty, like our next Senator, was elected with a plurality, not a majority.

ronster said...

Apparently, Palin thinks she's all that and a bag of chips...(I know that's an old tired saying, but it was the first thing that came to mind after reading Nate's article). Then again, maybe it's Palin that's old and tired...Now I get it...!!!

Prospero said...

Yes, Bill White is indeed running for US Senate, and not the Texas governorship.

Unfortunately, that means that the Republicans will effectively be running unopposed. For a state with so many Democratic voters (even if they're not a majority), and with a Democratic base growing so fast, that's absolutely disgraceful.

Michael said...

juvanya, you may confuse PeixeGato with that joke. The fact is, some states and cities and runoffs and some don't. It's one of the many things in the United States that varies from state to state and is determined by state laws, not federal laws. The one exception I can think of is that the courts have sometimes invalidated state laws mandating runoffs, when they've determined that the laws existed in order to make it as difficult as possible for black (or [other] ethnic minority) candidates to win, thereby violating the Voting Rights Act, which is an important piece of federal legislation.

Unrepentant Whitlamite said...

Hutchison can't have 2012 presidential ambitions.

These days, to have the funding necessary for a credible run, you need to announce, and start campaigning, in March 2011 at the latest.

At that time, Hutchison will have been governor for two months. Imagine the headlines. 'Are you sure you want the job, gov?'

Cugel said...

Is this really so hard to understand? There can be ONLY ONE WOMAN in the GOP! And that woman has to be Palin -- as far as Caribou Barbie is concerned!

She wants to put the shiv into Kay Hutchinson right now BEFORE she can become governor of Texas.

After all, that's the launching pad that Bush used to get to the White House. (Well that and the S.Ct.)

Palin certainly doesn't need the competition. After all, does anybody remember the 2nd guy to fly across the Atlantic after Lindberg?

If she can get Rick Perry re-elected that keeps Hutchinson from a bigger position of power!

matador said...

Sir Nate said:
"...But in either event, it looks to me like she's bet on the wrong horse, and the move shouldn't inspire much confidence in Palin's handlers..."

Do you mean that making Palin's opposite choice is the right thing to do ?
Agree Sir.
:)

Mike said...

I think this is more of a philosophical move than a political one. Perry is as much of an extremist as Palin, even going so far as doing campaign events in churches! If this is a political move, then it is very likely to backfire. Perry has been gov. for 10 years, and is NOT popular. Hutchison is much more popular, and the truth is that Good Hair has never had to face down opposition of that caliber. Honestly, I consider this endorsement good news - Palin is going to throw away what little credibility she has because of Good Hair. And when she starts sounding like Hitler when she sees that she won't win in 2012, Palin will go down in flames, and hopefully take what's left of the GOP with her.

e3323 said...

Sarah Palin's goal is simple. Try to get as much attention as possible. She does everything in her power to keep the spotlight on HER.....except for doing interviews because everyone knows EVERYTIME theres ANY unscripted interaction with Sarah Palin it goes horribly wrong.

PJ said...

We predict Hutchinson will beat Gov. Good Hair in the primary, the Mayor White, by a close margin. Palin picked a loser in Perry.

bluedogny said...

Didn't Rick Perry all but gag and drag Palin off the dais when she opened her mouth at the Governor's conference a few months ago.

Marie said...

This all seems kind of a poorly planned idea on Palin's part, to continue to stay in the media spotlight as she has, but let's remember that media's a two-way street. She does still garner attention.

That being said, it doesn't bode well necessarily for any 2012 Presidential aspirations she may have. It seems that early perceived "front-runners" rarely, if ever, get the ultimate nod. But more importantly, Palin can't possibly rebuild her image if she doesn't lay low for some time - the negative impression she gave upon her debut will be harder to erase.

Lastly - with the price of oil so low in her state, which really depends on oil revenue, you'd think she'd be focusing (now more than ever) on Alaska's economic needs and near future.

Just proof that Palin is thinking more of Palin than of the people she supposedly serves.

Tim said...

Palin wants Perry as her VP pick for 2012. She's going to announce this before the primaries in hopes of locking down Texas in advance. This strategy works best if Perry is still the governor after 2010.

Perry has already agreed to the deal because Palin's endorsement WILL help him, and he needs help, and a VP run (even if not successful) would be a good political move for him if he wants to be President one day.

Zev said...

Nonplussed=excited, surprised

Statler N Waldorf said...

Tim,

Well, Texas has alot of electoral votes, so yes this is a smart strategy for getting at those electors.

Alot of us outside of Texas look at this as Palin creating a stronger association between herself and George Bush. Perry was Bush's hand-picked successor in Bush's home state, and voted just like Bush would have if he had stayed in Texas.

Which is fine if Obama turns out to have done a job comparable to Bush or worse than Bush. If Obama turns out doing alot better than Bush did, which is likely, then the Bush brand is not what you want to associate yourself with.

Obama is dealing with the same problems Bush did, and if he succeeds where Bush failed, then that drives home the image of the Failed Bush Presidency. Which creates the image of the Failed Perry Presidency, and exacerbates the image of a horrifically Failed Palin Presidency.

That and there's just too many P's in there, This is politics not a nursery rhyme.

camipco said...

Hutchinson was the right VP pick for McCain. She has all the upside of Palin - she steals the news cycle, makes the McCain campaign look fresh and grabs the PUMAs, without the downside - she's qualified for the position, her politics is a credible fit for McCain's, and she's not a complete moron who can't be trusted to speak in public.

Will said...

People make this out to be about social conservatism, but Hutchison is not a fiscal conservative, either.

RufusRules said...

@ Zev - Nonplussed=excited, surprised

Not according to Webster's online:

Nonplus
Function: transitive verb
Inflected Form(s): nonplussed also nonplused
Date: 1591
:to cause to be at a loss as to what to say, think, or do : perplex

Nate is right. As usual.

st paul sage said...

palin is doing everything she can to establish her brand and "stay relevant" in the lower 48. i generally feel this is a good thing for democrats, because she seems to be so dumb and divisive. but i have this slightly nagging fear that that's what democrats thought about ronald reagan in 1976.

Jason said...

The above commentator is correct about Mayor White. He is running for senate. I remembered that just as I posted it. Oops. Nevertheless, Perry will have to face Hutchinson who may well receive cross-over votes in the primary simply because so many people want to see Perry go. What's so bad about him? He has no skills. Also, Hutchinson is definitely a Republican, but she is willing to part with the hardliners in her party when they are being ridiculous. She doesn't lose her conserva-cred just because she didn't support Palin. Many people didn't support Palin - mostly because she's incompetent not because she is too conservative.

ariseatex said...

Another thing to keep in mind is that Texas has an open primary system; hence why, even in very conservative counties here, more people voted in the Democratic primary than the Republican. I have Republican friends who voted in the Democratic primary just to try to get Hillary the nomination, thinking she'd be easier to defeat. In this case, though, I could see liberal Democrats such as myself voting in the Republican party just to ensure Rick Perry gets the hell out of office.

PeteKent said...

If Palin has picked Pery and she throws her polularity behind him, Hutchinson will lose. The lady Senator lacks dynamism and drive and will not be able to challenge a sitting governor. Any poltiical aspirations she may have beyond Texas are a fool's errand -- unless she has Palin's blessing.

Mark me: this Alaska governor owns the GOP right now and do whatever she wants with it.

Tim said...

I wouldn't underestimate Perry. I have a gut level feeling that Kay will stay in the senate. Both she and Perry will unfortunately win again; however, Bill White would do well and possibly defeat Perry. The fact is - as an earlier poster said - White is not well known outside of the Houston area. I grew up in East Texas, which is increasingly Republican. I can't see White doing well in the rural areas. In addition, he is not telegenic in the least...

Nancy D. said...

Sarah Palin backing the wrong horse.

Sarah Palin not using the good sense God GAVE a horse.

This simply isn't news.

At least the horse hasn't ended up like the turkey....

billyez said...

I'm almost 20 years old, and the only Governor I can remember being in power is Rick Perry.

He'll win this one for the same reason he won last time; Kinky Friendman and Strayhorn ran last time along with others and split the votes. It'll happen again.

Plus, Hutchinson voted for the bailout, That's not going to do much to help her out; as much as I can understand her decision at the time and sympathize with it, as someone who went to the Texas Republican Convention, trust me when I say others aren't going ot be as forgiving.

Perry will win in 2012.

信次 said...

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Deo said...

I remember Palin paraphrasing Madeleine Albright and saying THERE IS A SPECIAL PLACE IN HELL FOR WOMEN WHO DO NOT SUPPORT OTHER WOMEN.
Palin ís going to hell!
What a ridiulous person she is.
She will say ABSOLUTELY ANYTHING for effect.

PJ said...

I was wrong about Bill White. He's running for Senator. but Perry will lose to Hutchinson!

skruncher427 said...

I have been watching the situation with much interest and think Gov. Rick Perry will lose to Kay Bailey Hutchinson in the GOP Primary. I have heard rumor that Kinky Friedman was going to run again in 2010, but this time as a Democrat. If he wins the Democrat Primary over Bill White, this is going to be one heck of an interesting race; but it will come down to Kinky Friedman beating KBH in the polls; and Texas shall have its first Democrat governor since the late Ann Richards was defeated by George W. Bush in 1994. At least that's what I see anyway.

John said...

The GOP in my fair state is actually more than a bit sacred of the resurgent Democratic Party, even if by accident. In Harris county something like 25 Republican Judges lost due mainly to strong straight ticket voting by Democrats and we finally have a bit more balance in county wide offices. The response from the GOP...propose the elimination of voting straight party in general elections. If you look at the electoral maps TX is turner bluer from the southern valley north and spreading from the (4) largest metro areas that ALL supported Obama.

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