...tracking the opinion of leading economists on the stimulus package. Here's what I can find from among the Top 20 as rated by the University of Connecticut's IDEAS database. Blue indicates that the economist has publicly endorsed the basic tenets of Obama's stimulus package, and/or wants a bigger stimulus. Red means they have come out with a public statement indicating skepticism over the stimulus.
1. Joseph E. Stiglitz. Favors big/bigger stimulus (link)
2. Andrei Schleifer
3. Robert J. Barro
4. James Heckman
5. Robert Lucas. Skeptical, thinks monetary tools still exist (link)
6. Peter C.B. Phillips
7. Edward Prescott
8. Martin Feldstein. "The only way to prevent a deepening recession will be a temporary program of increased government spending". (link)
9. Jean Tirole
10. Daron Acemoglu. Favors basic idea of stimulus, thinks devil is in details (link)
11. Larry Summers. Member of Obama economic team, favors stimulus (link)
12. John Y. Campbell
13. Oliver Blanchard
14. Mark Gertler
15. Paul Krugman. Thanks action is needed drastically, worried stimulus won't be large enough. (link)
16. Christopher F. Baum
17. Thomas Sargent. Skeptical, thinks stimulus math is based on outmoded economic models (link)
18. Maurice Obstfeld
19. Stephen Turnovsky
20. Nicholas Cox
So that looks like four "pro"s, two "anti"s and one agnostic from among those whom I can find some kind of on-the-record statement. But I'm sure there are many that I've missed.
1.15.2009
A Webpage Someone Else Should Start...
@ 10:00 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
73 comments
I thought I was leaving all the web shit to you, dickywoo!
Nate
Awesome stuff. I sure wish I knew how to do that.
The breakdown reminds me of the split in the professors when I was earning my economics degree.
Progressive neo-Keynesians against Freidman Supply-Siders.
I like the new look!
Thank Turdo you got rid of those vile election results- finally!!
Thinks, not thanks re kruggy.
So is an 'agnostic' someone who isn't sure Obama is God?
@Nate: On your "Depression" article, Mark Sadowski called attention to the Philly Fed's "Survey of Professional Forecasters."
You forgot Jeffrey Sachs...
http://www.npr.org/templates/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=13&prgDate=1-13-2009
I'm not sure if you consider them economists or not, but Dean Baker supported more spending and Gregory Mankiw denounced the plan on Fresh Air last Tuesday.
http://www.npr.org/templates/rundowns/rundown.php?prgId=13&prgDate=1-13-2009
These rankings are crap. We really need a playoff system.
These rankings are crap. We really need a playoff system.
hilarious
Is there a meaningful distinction between the economists listed by the IDEAS database and some other famous individuals, like Malcom Gladwell and Steven Levitt?
@Nate: Some people refer to the CBOE VIX (volatility index on options) as a "Fear Gage".
So there you have an index of sentiment by relatively sophisticated traders.
A lot of dudes on that list...
Perhaps someone out there has time to start a wiki for this...
http://www.wikihow.com/Start-a-Wiki
Nate, your link for Krugman shows an opinion piece from *last* January about the $600 tax rebate stimulus. Here's a better link:
http://krugman.blogs.nytimes.com/2009/01/10/romer-and-bernstein-on-stimulus/
mankiw comes in juuust over the arbitrary top 20 cut off = lol
@Maxo
Mankiw believes that less regulation and big tax cuts for business are the way to go. In other words, the same stuff he has been recommending to his boss, Bush 43, for the last several years. And if you don't agree with him you are an unteachable dunderhead.
GREAT JOB BROWNIE!
@STepper:
I don't know much about economics or the people surrounding economic theory, but if you have been advising the President then you are certainly influential, even if your advice has helped spur the problems we are in. As such, knowing that person's take on the situation is still important, even if it is predictable.
I assume Jean Tirole is a woman?
If so, the only one.
It occurs to me (a woman) that maybe it was mainly men who got us into the shit. Maybe a few women are needed to get us out of it....
And now I've lit the blue touch paper, I'll retire*
*not sure if that phrase translates to the US - it means I've lit the fuse and am expecting the fireworks to go off - hopefully, not in my face.
Nate, just truncate the labels list and put this list above the blog archive list.
We only trust you to do things.
Listening to Economists is an exercise in futility.
Anybody with even average inteligence could grasp the idea that if house prices rise above what people can aford then they are driven by speculation. An adjustment was inevitable.
There is even a clear point at which it must crash. This is the point when unafordable mortgages with negligable deposits become normal.
It takes little further thought to realise that if housing debt is allowed to become the foundation of the economy then the economy is doomed.
Yet nobody even blinked. I say let the Lawyers live a little longer. We should shoot the Economists first. How many have not sold their souls to the devil for an ideology or money from one interest group or another? Few.
WV perses - and all empty.
Delong has three posts on Eugene Fama's view of the stimulus. I guess Fama is carrying the water for the University of Chicago old timers, now that Friedman is dead.
At this point what conceivable difference does it make what some economist thinks?
We're clearly GOING to have a stimulus package, and that package is only going to be STEP 1 of a far larger stimulus package which will be introduced later this year, as soon as it becomes apparent that the original stimulus is tiny compared with the desperate need of an economy that is shedding jobs like a Persian cat sheds fur.
The Chicago School of right-wing economists have had their day. Taking their idiotic advice about how "markets are self-regulating" has created this crisis!
I don't suppose that most conservative economists were happy with the "stimulus package" passed by FDR in 1933 either, but they were wrong then and they're wrong now.
Sounds like Obama's plan is about the right size then, and Krugman is the leftie's lefty.
Nate, are all of these economists macrotheorits? There is probably a list more specific to that topic. Heckman for example, known for his work in micro and individual behaviour.
on an unrelated note...finally an attorney general nominee says waterboarding is torture...good for eric holder
MRS B
"And now I've lit the blue touch paper, I'll retire*"
thanks for the clarification. I would have assumed that the blue was referencing early pregnancy test strips.
full stop [as you limeys say...]
I agree in theory that a stimulus package is needed, but I think we need to address the root cause of the crisis first, which is the crashing real estate market and the resulting hemorage of money in the financial sector. Some of the more pessimistic econominsts predict it could be years before the real estate market bottoms out without some kind of government intervention.
I like the following analogy: Think of the economy is a tub full of water with the water level indicating the health of the economy. With the stimulus package we are pumping more water into the tubbut, but at the same time, water is draining out of the tub from the real estate crisis. Trying to fill a tub with water while it is still draining is doomed to failure and extremely wasteful in the long run, even if you do see some benefit in the short term.
Let's plug the leaks first and then focus on filling the tub back up.
Lucas seems to be missing a pretty major point: this is no longer all about the financial markets.
Banks don't want to lend to businesses to expand because they're afraid the businesses won't be able to find customers because regular people don't have jobs, or if they do, they don't make enough to spend more (what they spent before was based on leverage and they don't have that any more).
Municipalities that want to float bonds to build infrastructure are having trouble finding buyers because everyone expects tax revenues to plummet because regular people don't have jobs or have had their hours cut and will be making and spending less money and therefore will pay less in taxes.
Not too many unemployed people are sitting around thinking, "you know, if only I could trade some of my private paper for high-quality Fed-backed reserves, I'd be willing to spend more money."
The banks may have gotten us into this mess in the near term, but their leveraging up of themselves and the consumer basically covered up the fact that with real wages flat for 30 years, the consumer couldn't consume any more without borrowing. In other words, without the recent bubbles, the economy would have stagnated years ago. The only way to get it going is to get regular people back to work, with a pathway to rising wages that can keep pace with and ultimately drive the growing economy.
Short version: the economy won't work for anyone unless it works for everyone. Right now, lots of "everyones" are out of the game, and we need to get them back into it. Monetary policy won't do it, and tax cuts won't do it; spending that creates jobs will do it.
Free markets are fine until the actions of a few influence the lives of the many. America's security and stability isn't the few's to gamble away on risk. Unfortunately, the above considerations are often not taken into account when free market capitalists come to conclusions.
let's treat all the Economists as 'comodities'
put them into an ECON pool,
group them by ideology,
assign risk,
bundle them up & market them
who would place money on their bets ? [wait, WE did with TARP...]
another speculative derivative hedge fund
would these economists go all in on their own game plan ???
Nate could track their returns on investment
it all reminds me of the spectacular crash of Long-Term Capital Management (LTCM) in the late 90's
I am wary when the economists get to play with the national [and international] treasury...
Agreed that there are much better and recent examples of Krugman's opinion on the stimulus package. This one, for example, from Jan 9, is explicit in that he thinks Obama's stimulus package doesn't go far enough: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/09/opinion/09krugman.html
Some of the more pessimistic econominsts predict it could be years before the real estate market bottoms out without some kind of government intervention.
@Eric,
You have it backwards my friend. The government needs to stay the hell away from the real estate market. The market is correcting itself at a much lower value because that's where prices need to be for the market to clear excess supply.
The problem initially was that real estate values exploded to unsustainable levels because of speculation, easy access to capital/credit, predatory lending, and people living beyond and/or stretching their means.
The only solution is for the market to return to fair value, no matter how low it goes or how hard it crashes. The faster the real estate market finds its true market value - WITHOUT government intervention - the quicker things will stabilize, and the faster we can get back on our feet.
I'd rather see a list of economists who have specifically studied taxation, stimulus, and growth. (Barro studies this, for instance, but Heckman is mainly an education guy.)
On that, Nate I hope you'll run not walk to what I think is one of the most important papers in macroeconomics:
Peter Nijkamp & Jacques Poot, Victoria, 2002. "Meta-Analysis of the Impact of Fiscal Policies on Long-Run Growth," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 02-028/3, Tinbergen Institute, revised 23 Apr 2003.
http://ideas.repec.org/p/dgr/uvatin/20020028.html
Note: "long-run." The thing we should be thinking about.
Cugel and Brad:
Krugman actually believes that though FDR's stimulus programs clearly worked some and were remarkably uncorrupt to boot (because of an effective and well-funded inspector), they were initially too small. Similarly, he was concerned that Obama's opening offer of a stimulus plan was not nearly bold and big enough. But as we all know, aided by the "The Price is Right" strategy Nate and some others have detailed, the spending side of the plan has been climbing.
@Legendary
But what if the economy completely collapses and we fall into a Depression before the real estate markets bottom out? How much money can the government realistacally be expected to pump into the economy to keep it propped up over the long term before the government goes bankrupt?
Ideally, you are right, it would be best to allow the market to correct itself, but I have a family to support. I can't afford to be idealistic on this matter, and I don't think the government can either.
nikip5555:
I love your use of the word "everyones." It reminds me of the "us-es" Harvey Milk memorably spoke about at the Gay Pride rally outside City Hall in San Francisco. Full disclosure: I know about this because I saw the movie, Milk a few weeks ago. Off-topic tangent: I thought it was a great movie, and I perceived some similarity between Harvey Milk's spirit of genuine populism and concern for the interests of all the downtrodden, forgotten, and disaffected people and Obama's campaign.
wv: foils. We are foils for Nate's lucid analyses.
Hey fivethirty eight have a look at yourself
This is a website that tracks the demographics of site users and plots the number of site visits over time.
It's totally off topic, but I thought it might be kinda amusing to see what fivethirtyeight users look like, and I was surprised to find it wasn't what I expected.
eric's comments (and I am not criticising them) bring to mind FDR's comments about having nothing to fear but fear itself. The problem facing us all is made much worse if no-one has any confidence that it can be fixed, because then everyone will hoard what money they have, and the economy will contract even further.
Excellent idea. For a relative layperson like me, it'd be great to also note the economist's perspective - who they work for, whether they're considered liberal/conservative (or whatever we would call it in the economic world), etc.
That way we could see if the breakdown was by ideology, or what.
Thanks!
wv: dearcsxg - The xkcd equivalent of a "Dear John" letter. Which I just kinda almost got! ><
Mr B: FDR actually said: We have nothing to FDDR except FDDR itself. ?! He was nuts 'cos of his polio medication I think! Then they tried to spin it later like he had said something rational.
Where did the election result data go?
Unless small businesses can receive credit to expand and stay alive I'd say the stimulus package will be a wash. We still have another stomach churning downhill (deflation) swing on the roller coaster coming up! Wheeee!
TARP is warped, and a dreadful waste of tax payers money. The "too big to fail" banks should be smashed to pieces, and its itty bitty bits sold off.
Problems solved.
Americans need to get back into the glorious time honored, tried and true habit of saving.
hamistsi - where bad actresses go to retire.
Edward Prescott....against the stimulus. update it
More leading economists need their own blogs...
Ahh, the IRONY of trying to compile perfect information about economists.
Assume we have perfect information......
Graphically interpret and explain.
wv - oursomer - The report you wrote in the fall of 11th grade english class.
Andre Schleifer's name is spelled wrong and he needs a color for "crook."
Please refer to (and update) the wikipedia entry.
Yo Nate. I love the site. Your stats help me in debates. Keep up the good work.
P.s. Move to wordpress. Blogger sucks balls.
It might be prudent to consider economists by their JEL classifications.
For Public Fin:
http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.pub.html#authors
For Monetary:
http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.mon.html#authors
For Macro:
http://ideas.repec.org/top/top.lab.html#authors
I'd conject that this would lead to a more anti-stimulus consensus, since from glancing inspection, only Feldstein and Summers are the probamas on these lists. The problem is that most of these people aren't as vocal as the Cowens and DeLongs on the world.
And my guess is that the Monetarists would all claim that we need to exercise Monetary Policy first.
This is like the list of 200 scientists ascribing to the fact that Global Climate change is both here and man made.
This isn't a change. This is Bush II. More spending and tax cuts that don't work.
What is really needed is a cut in the capital gains rate to 10%. This will result in a surge of dollars to the treasury as well as freeing up capital.
Secondly, cut the corporate tax rate to 20%, while removing some of the loopholes (tax preferences).
Thirdly, create an earmark for the Alaskan Way Viaduct Tunnel project in Seattle. Create an earmark for the highway 520 Seattle to Bellevue project. Create an earmark for the permanent expansion of I-405 in Bellevue.
No other spending.
Schleifer at #2 is basically a crook who fattened up on the Russian disaster. The economics profession is too corrupt, and the relationship between their science and policies they support is too tenuous, for anyone to take these ratings seriously.
While the crisis was in the making, few of these people knew or cared. Nobody should take any of them seriously without further information.
Not all economists are academics.
This list is highly flawed.
as posted on the curent thread...
breaking news just in this evening:
-----------------------------------
So the DEMs seated Burris today just in time for him to cast a vote to allow the phase II of TARP to pass 52 -42
Biden delayed his resignation just long enough to also vote, but 8 [count 'em - EIGHT] senate DEMS jumped ship & voted 'nay' along with most of the GOPers including McCain...
took alot of arm twisting for Obama to hold onto a slim majority INCLUDING BURRIS...
this would be a GREAT time for Nate to roll out his SENATE cartogram so we can see the dispersal of TARP voting
IF the TARP II had failed to pass, now THAT would have been interesting indeed...
So basically we have economists arguing about whether the TARP has a hole in it, whether we bought a TARP that was too cheap or too expensive, and whether or not a TARP will be sufficient in and of itself to fend off the rain.
This is why I hate camping.
I'm not an economist, but nikip5555 is dead on about Lucas. RIght wing economists seem to think the financial markets are the only economy, and they ignore the real economy of labor, production and consumption.
I'm glad to see Stiglitz tops the list, as he is an economist with his priorities straight.
I second the motion to get the Senate cartogram rolled out, as well as the house cartogram which should begin with yesterday's SCHIP vote.
And I am horrified - but not surprised - that according to that link Statler N Waldorf posted, I am a 538 addict, visiting the site more than 30 times per month. I don't think I've missed a post since I found this place in May. I assumed the rest of you were the same way, but apparently 94% of you have more self control.
To add a two more to your list, the U of C's Becker-Posner blog had a post on it this past week (Jan 11), a lukewarm yes for Posner and a skeptical bent for Becker.
^link to Becker/Posner posts on this:
http://www.becker-posner-blog.com/archives/2009/01/on_the_obama_st.html
You want Brad DeLong's list on http://feedproxy.google.com/~r/BradDelongsSemi-dailyJournal/~3/deYWRKQUqpE/stupidest-party-alivetm.html
He would be in the supporting stimulus camp.
The list of economists is troubling because many of them aren't macroeconomists. At the very least, put together a list of macroeconomists to compare it to.
Yeah, why not just do a poll and go off of that, which would be MUCH more effective than actually learning enough about economics to form your own damn opinion or anything!
It just makes me sick when people vote on issues they don't understand. If you think that the economy is the most important, or one of the most important issues, and you know that you're so poorly informed that the best you can do is follow the opinions of economists (even though you know you're far too ignorant to differentiate the good economists from the bad economists - as that would involve having a knowledge of economics!)
The amount of economics you need to know to be able to inform your vote is minimal, most of which is stuff people already know on a practical level, but assume doesn't apply because a bunch of people with intimidating academic and financial accomplishments using a bunch of words people don't understand (or don't understand in the context of economic conversations). Inflation, deflation, stimuli, subsidies, taxation, none of these are things that are beyond the comprehension of someone with basic sense, and so when someone hasn't bothered to figure it out the only possible explanation is that this person doesn't care enough and subsequently shouldn't be dragging down our entire political system with their poorly informed votes that can only improve things out of pure coincidence.
And it's people choosing not to do this that has led to so many economists thinking they're so damn smart, which is why they think they can do things like spend their way out of a recession. They learn short-term economic skills, and figure that if they use these skills in a way that masterfully balances growth against inflation, equality in distribution against market efficiency, domestic protectionism against our consumer and producer needs for access to foreign markets, and grow our way out of the recession without anyone ever realizing that they're paying more for shit than it's worth. They're wrong, and if people stopped being so irrationally afraid of actually knowing what they're talking about no one would get away with spewing such unadulterated nonsense. Right now our economy is like a meth-head who's spent everything he owns on a week-long binge, he's sold the TV, he spent his rent money, he pawned his kid's bike and his wife's engagement ring, he's seeing things from the lack of sleep, and he's telling himself "All I need is a little more meth and everything will be alright, and it won't matter what I did to get it (and all the other meth I've used to avoid having to come down and sleep). Now a normal rational person would look at this situation and say "You know, maybe the solution would to get off the meth." But instead we've got Nate Silver saying "Look, I don't personally know anything about the affects of meth usage, but I've got a list of people who are experts in meth (a mixture of experts who've identified meth as a drug and experts who're experts because they are desperately addicted to it) and 4 people think we should spend everything we have on a major blowout meth-party while only 2 think it's a bad idea, so why not party? It's not like it's at all unreasonable to see a plan of pawning everything we own/can borrow so we can remain perpetually stoned out of our minds could ever prove to be less than sustainable!"
Pure garbage.
Here is a list of 387 economists in favor of a stimulus dated November of last year:
http://www.cepr.net/documents/publications/Economists_letter_2008_11_19.pdf
Here is John Boehner's list of 34 economists opposing a stimulus:
http://republicanleader.house.gov/UploadedFiles/stimulusskeptics.pdf
Note that Robert Solow favors a stimulus (as does George Akerlof, who is also a Nobel laureate). Boehner's list includes my dissertation adviser (unfortunately) and is generally lackluster. In addition, Oliver Blanchard (IMF) favors stimuli here, there and everywhere, and has gone into great detail as to what they should look like:
http://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/spn/2008/spn0801.pdf
Counting Becker and Prescott as nays and Blanchard, Posner and Solow as yays that brings it to 7 for and 4 against by my count.
And I agree with the previous commenters who said that a list of prominent macroeconomists would be more relevant. Some important economists have not taken a public position because it's not their specialty.
Hmm what's the hex code for that color? Those "blues" look a little "purple" to me...
Economics is a big discipline, not all economists are equally qualified to talk on macroeconomics even if they have the same number of high quality papers. You really need to differentiate by type of economist just like you always differential by type of poll. Jean Tirole for example does industrial organization.
This list is out of date. Click here for an updated version (which will not be so kind to Silver's partisan view).
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,約定金生,約定金生,情趣,情趣商品,約定金生,情趣網站,跳蛋, 約定金生,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,約定金生,自慰套,G點,性感內衣,約定金生,情趣內衣,約定金生,角色扮演,生日禮物,生日精品,約定金生,自慰,打手槍,約定金生,潮吹,高潮,後庭,約定金生,情色論譠,影片下載,約定金生,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,約定金生,音樂下載, 約定金生,約定金生,開獎號碼,統一發票號碼,夜市,統一發票對獎,保險套, 約定金生,約定金生,做愛,約定金生,減肥,美容,瘦身,約定金生,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車, 約定金生,手機,來電答鈴, 約定金生,週年慶,美食,約定金生,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計, 約定金生,室內設計, 約定金生,靈異照片,約定金生,同志,約定金生,聊天室,運動彩券,大樂透,約定金生,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍, 約定金生,無名破解,av女優, 約定金生,小說,約定金生,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,約定金生,討論區,痴漢,懷孕, 約定金生,約定金生,美女交友,約定金生,交友,日本av,日本,機票, 約定金生,香水,股市, 約定金生,股市行情, 股市分析,租房子,成人影片,約定金生,免費影片,醫學美容, 約定金生,免費算命,算命,約定金生,姓名配對,姓名學,約定金生,姓名學免費,遊戲, 約定金生,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,約定金生,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,約定金生,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片, 約定金生,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表, 約定金生,線上電視,約定金生,線上a片,約定金生,線上掃毒,線上翻譯,購物車,約定金生,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車, 約定金生,約定金生,法拍屋,約定金生,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,火車,房屋,情趣用品,約定金生,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,約定金生,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套, 約定金生, G點,性感內衣,約定金生,情趣內衣,約定金生,角色扮演,生日禮物,精品,禮品,約定金生,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,約定金生,後庭,情色論譠,約定金生,影片下載,約定金生,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票,夜市,保險套,做愛,約定金生,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,約定金生,軟體下載,約定金生,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,約定金生,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片, 約定金生,同志,聊天室,約定金生,運動彩券,,大樂透,約定金生,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍, 約定金生,無名破解, av女優,小說,民宿,約定金生,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢, 約定金生,懷孕,約定金生,美女交友,約定金生,交友,日本av ,日本,機票, 約定金生,香水,股市, 約定金生,股市行情,股市分析,租房子,約定金生,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命, 約定金生,姓名配對,姓名學, 約定金生,姓名學免費,遊戲,約定金生,好玩遊戲,約定金生,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,約定金生,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視, 約定金生,線上a片,線上a片,線上翻譯, 約定金生,購物車,身分證製造機,約定金生,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網, 約定金生,借錢,房屋,街頭籃球,找工作,旅行社,約定金生,六合彩,整型論壇,整型論壇,珠海,雷射溶脂,婚紗,網頁設計,水噹噹論壇,台中隆鼻,果凍隆乳,改運整型,自體脂肪移植,新娘造型,婚禮顧問,下川島,常平,常平,珠海,澳門機票,香港機票,貸款,貸款,信用貸款,宜蘭民宿,花蓮民宿,未婚聯誼,網路購物,婚友,婚友社,未婚聯誼,交友,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,未婚聯誼, 婚友社,婚友,婚友社,單身聯誼,婚友,未婚聯誼,婚友社,未婚聯誼,單身聯誼,單身聯誼,白蟻,白蟻,除蟲,老鼠,減肥,減肥,在家工作,在家工作,
豆豆聊天室 aio交友愛情館 2008真情寫真 2009真情寫真 aa片免費看 捷克論壇 微風論壇 大眾論壇 plus論壇 080視訊聊天室 情色視訊交友90739 美女交友-成人聊天室 色情小說 做愛成人圖片區 豆豆色情聊天室 080豆豆聊天室 小辣妹影音交友網 台中情人聊天室 桃園星願聊天室 高雄網友聊天室 新中台灣聊天室 中部網友聊天室 嘉義之光聊天室 基隆海岸聊天室 中壢網友聊天室 南台灣聊天室 南部聊坊聊天室 台南不夜城聊天室 南部網友聊天室 屏東網友聊天室 台南網友聊天室 屏東聊坊聊天室 雲林網友聊天室 大學生BBS聊天室 網路學院聊天室 屏東夜語聊天室 孤男寡女聊天室 一網情深聊天室 心靈饗宴聊天室 流星花園聊天室 食色男女色情聊天室 真愛宣言交友聊天室 情人皇朝聊天室 上班族成人聊天室 上班族f1影音視訊聊天室 哈雷視訊聊天室 080影音視訊聊天室 38不夜城聊天室 援交聊天室080 080哈啦聊天室 台北已婚聊天室 已婚廣場聊天室 夢幻家族聊天室 摸摸扣扣同學會聊天室 520情色聊天室 QQ成人交友聊天室 免費視訊網愛聊天室 愛情公寓免費聊天室 拉子性愛聊天室 柔情網友聊天室 哈啦影音交友網 哈啦影音視訊聊天室 櫻井莉亞三點全露寫真集 123上班族聊天室 尋夢園上班族聊天室 成人聊天室上班族 080上班族聊天室 6k聊天室 粉紅豆豆聊天室 080豆豆聊天網 新豆豆聊天室 080聊天室 免費音樂試聽 流行音樂試聽 免費aa片試看免費a長片線上看 色情貼影片 免費a長片 本土成人貼圖站 大台灣情色網 台灣男人幫論壇 A圖網 嘟嘟成人電影網 火辣春夢貼圖網 情色貼圖俱樂部 台灣成人電影 絲襪美腿樂園 18美女貼圖區 柔情聊天網 707網愛聊天室聯盟 台北69色情貼圖區 38女孩情色網 台灣映像館 波波成人情色網站 美女成人貼圖區 無碼貼圖力量 色妹妹性愛貼圖區 日本女優貼圖網 日本美少女貼圖區 亞洲風暴情色貼圖網 哈啦聊天室 美少女自拍貼圖 辣妹成人情色網 台北女孩情色網 辣手貼圖情色網 AV無碼女優影片 男女情色寫真貼圖 a片天使俱樂部 萍水相逢遊戲區 平水相逢遊戲區 免費視訊交友90739 免費視訊聊天 辣妹視訊 - 影音聊天網 080視訊聊天室 日本美女肛交 美女工廠貼圖區 百分百貼圖區 亞洲成人電影情色網 台灣本土自拍貼圖網 麻辣貼圖情色網 好色客成人圖片貼圖區 711成人AV貼圖區 台灣美女貼圖區 筱萱成人論壇 咪咪情色貼圖區 momokoko同學會視訊 kk272視訊 情色文學小站 成人情色貼圖區 嘟嘟成人網 嘟嘟情人色網 - 貼圖區 免費色情a片下載 台灣情色論壇 成人影片分享 免費視訊聊天區 微風 成人 論壇 kiss文學區 taiwankiss文學區
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣商品,情趣商品,情趣睡衣,情趣內衣,自慰器,飛機杯,按摩棒,潤滑液,跳蛋,C型褲,C字褲,角色扮演,情趣按摩棒,AV女優,SM,充氣娃娃,自慰套,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣精品,電動按摩棒,日本按摩棒,小S跳蛋,無線跳蛋,A片,自慰器,情趣用品,成人用品,性愛用品,
自慰,女生自慰,美女,高潮,失戀,性高潮,女性高潮,G點,自慰,性,性感,性感內衣,內衣,性感內衣,性感睡衣,情趣內衣,比基尼內衣,人妻少婦性感睡衣,
失戀,性愛,性感,情慾,調情,挑逗,慾望,情人節禮物,自慰器,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment