I've had the impression for some time that academic economists have become more pessimistic about the economy than commercial ones, and therefore are perhaps more likely to support a larger stimulus package. The Wall Street Journal's monthly economic forecasting survey may provide some evidence of this.
The Journal surveys 55 economists each month. I divided these economists into five groups; the number of economists in each category is in parenthesis:
1. Commercial or investment banks (16);
2. Investment firms, such as hedge funds (9);
3. Commercial sector, not qualifying under one of the previous two categories, such as large corporations or industry groups (9);
4. Economic consulting firms (14);
5. Academic or nonprofit institutions (6).
One economist, James F. Smith, had credentials listed under both the academic and investment categories and therefore was excluded. (He also might be excluded as a wacko, having predicted GDP growth to recover to 2.6 percent this quarter).
As you can see, the Journal's survey is not particularly well balanced. Academic economists seem to be underrepresented, as perhaps are economists in the commercial (but nonfinancial) sector. Nevertheless, let's take a look at the average quarter-by-quarter GDP estimates for the five groups listed above:
From among these groups, one stands out as bearish and another as bullish. The bullish forecasts belong to the investment firms -- whom, it might be noted, could have some institutional incentives to encourage investors that the water is warm enough to dip their toes back into again. This group forecasts GDP growth to recover to 2.72 percent by the fourth quarter of this year. The most bearish economists, meanwhile, are indeed the academic and nonprofit economists, who see GDP increasing to only 1.25 percent by the fourth quarter. The other three groups line up somewhere in the middle, although the banks seem to envision a deeper bottom than the others do.
For the record, here are how the economists were classified:
Banks (16)
Wells Fargo & Co.
Morgan Stanley
BNP Paribas
Societe Generale
Barclays Capital
Goldman Sachs & Co.
The Private Bank
PNC Financial Services Group
Deutsche Bank Securities Inc.
Comerica Bank
JP Morgan Chase & Co.
Bank of America
Nomura Securities International Inc.
Wachovia Corp.
Credit Suisse
National Bank of Kuwait
Commercial (9)
Mortgage Bankers Association
National City Corporation
Fannie Mae
FedEx Corp.
Swiss Re
Eaton Corp.
International Council of Shopping Centers
Perna Associates
National Association of Realtors
Consultancies (14)
Capital Economics
Global Insight
Econoclast
Wrightson ICAP
MFR, Inc.
Moody's Investors Service
Encima Global LLC
MacroEcon Global Advisors
Macroeconomic Advisers
RDQ Economics
High Frequency Economics
Decision Economics Inc.
Economic Analysis
Standard and Poor's
Investment Firms (9)
Combinatorics Capital
AllianceBernstein
UBS
Wayne Hummer Investments LLC
The Northern Trust
Ameriprise Financial
RBS Greenwich Capital
Mesirow Financial
First Trust Advisors, L.P.
Nonprofit / Academic (6)
RSQE, U. of Michigan
Vanderbilt University
UCLA Anderson Forecast
Economic and Revenue Forecast Council
California State University
The Conference Board
1.26.2009
Smarter than the Average Bears?
@ 8:39 AM
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46 comments
Wacko? An economist? Never (or is it always).
If academic economists are like law professors, we can expect that their lack of real world knowledge, and their inflated egos due to the "rah-rah-you are great" environment in which they live makes them the most likely to be wrong, as a group.
Nate,
This is timely post. The old article about the depression contract on intrade was flawed in that the reason the contract was trading so high is because it summed up 4 quarters of annualized growth. So the contract was basically predicting the probability of a 2.5% contraction.
Interestingly intrade notice this mistake and now has a new contract expression a 10% contraction in one year. This contract is at 20. Still a little high but not at the ridiculous 67 the other contract is trading at.
The other thing to note is that all the groups essentially predict the same track at different depths for the bottom. This could give us hope that they are all right and we will be fine by this time next year. That said, what is says to me is that they all cheat off each others paper and thus none of them are truly independent predictions, and thus none should be trusted.
I can see now why Obama might want to push this stimulus through now. He's using this window of opportunity to get some programs passed he would otherwise not get backing for.
If by the third quarter, GDP will be turned around, the sense of urgency will be gone.
But one thing is for sure, this next quarter is going to be horrific as companies lay employees off to adjust for the downtrend.
If you know anything about the methodology behind these predictions, I would love to see a post on that Or are the predictions simply educated guesses?
Thanks for the post Nate. It is nice to have such a simple record of these predictions available (presuming you are accurate). How long did it take you to mine that prediction data and where did you get it? Also error bars would have been nice- While the graphic tells a story without the error bars it is hard to know if your numbers really do.
I am not dissing you- THANKS again-
Will we ever have access to lots of reliable and generally agreed upon data that will eventually allow us to evaluate the accuracy of these predictions?
Elections results are much more tractable- people cast ballots- machines and/or other people count them- all fairly tractable. Money- value- GDP not so much.
Gross Domestic Product- What exactly is the GDP?
1)That flotilla of plastic in the pacific.
2)CO2 and Methane released into the atmosphere?
Our ledgers need to become much more inclusive.
wv-incte- incte to go green
There is a very unsettling optical illusion to that graph, making the horizontal axis seem to slant down.
Hey, I hadn't finished with the last thread........ Skip to the *** if you only want on topic stuff.
Can I stick my oar into this, as a non-US resident or citizen?
Just a few observations.
1 Yes ok, the US is bigger than the other democracies in terms of size and population (well, maybe not Canada or Brazil in terms of size. I don't think that Russia necessarily qualifies as a democracy). So it would be more expensive and time consuming to hold a special election. But other than that, what reasons are there? And no, the possible obliteration of the whole of Congress is not a reason. As someone earlier said, we would have other things to worry about if that happened.
2 Name me one other democracy that appoints legislators when there is a vacancy. There may be one - go on, surprise me.
3 Name me one other democracy that has such huge disparities between the value of a vote in say Wyoming, and the value of a vote in say California. Yes, we all have constituencies of different sizes, but name me somewhere that has institutionalised unfairness which can't be changed by redrawing consituency boundaries.
4 Name me another democracy that has an EC. Explain to me why all other democracies are at a disadvantage by not having one.
5 Yes I know the EC may have been set up for good reasons, but that was more than 200 years ago. So name me another democracy, or another part of your own voting systems (there *may* be some) which are exactly the same as they were 200 years ago.
BTW, criticising these aspects of US democracy does not mean I think everything about the way you do things is flawed. You at least *have* a constitution. And both the House and the Senate are normally elected - no hereditary peers or use of the honours system.
**********
And on topic, I don't think any of them know what is going to happen and most of them are probably reluctant to say anything too pessimistic for fear that they will undermine confidence even more and thus cause the recession to be worse. It reminds me of quantum physics - the observer affects the outcome of the event.
Ok I took a look at the WSJ journal site- I guess you took your numbers straight from there-
Has the WSJ heard of the IMF- I think it is full of economists that do these sorts of analyzes- has the IMF not offered any input on these issues?
you are right Dave the x-axis on the graph does look funky- fortunately all the other lines look to be parallel with the text in the post-so the bars are pretty readable.
That's not an optical illusion. It's just those weighty academics holding onto the bar for dear life.
Obama live shortly on economy HERE .
The latest industry bailout seen as vital to the economy by horny college kids like myself
Friends-in this time of economic crisis, I beg you to consider the vital role of the porn industry in American life. During a harsh recession such as this, many of us cannot afford the distractions available at other times. Drugs, booze, and prostitutes are simply out of the reach of the average American worker. No matter how poor, we can all afford to masturbate, however.
It's not just the porn stars that will benefit from this industry bailout. Teh technicians, directors, and 'fluffers' all need employment as well. Not to mention the service industry that supports these fine employees. Much like the auto industry, there is a 'trickle down' effect upon the local economy.
I'm not suggesting we just throw money at the porn industry without any further involvement. I am in fact suggesting that government play an active role in remakinmg the porn industry in our country. With bold new films like Boher's Boners, Cornyn's Cornholes, The Private Pleasures of Anton Scalia, The Confessions of David Vitter and Mitch McConnell's Manly Men, we will reinvent porn in a new way that also encourages more transparency in government.
You're going to get to know your leaders in a new and exciting way, more intimately than ever before.
Sexy, sultry, and stimulating to more than just the economy, this isn't a bailout so much as it is your window into a side of Congress you've never seen before.
Call your representative today and tell them you want to see more of them than ever before.
SNW
any of these films going to be set in airport rest rooms?
The idea that porn might have a 'trickle down' effect was an image too far!
The 3 more 'bearish' groups are actually in pretty close agreement, except for timing. I am hearing from friends being laid off from the land development industry that banks are routinely rejecting requests to re-finance large commercial loans and will continue to do so until their exposure is reduced - about May/June. The investment firms may be expecting this effect to result in immediate economic turnaround, the others think it will take about 3 months to work through. And the academics/nonprofits looking for something else to get the economy going.
Mrs B
This is a pork barrel project the entire country can get in on
SNW
I hadn't thought of the erotic potential of putting the whole population of the US in barrels with pigs.........
Or is that not the way your mind was working?
If you are looking for other ideas, how about Harry Reid 'punishing' dissident Dems? I am sure everyone would want to see that.
Economists often remind me of the gag about the French representative at the EU planning meeting of civil engineers:
"Yezz, eet eez un breelyunt plan, and one can see zat eet veel verk en practeece --but veel eet verk en theory?"
Bless all of their hearts.
WV: unises --Wherever the bottom of this thing is, it's gotten so rough out there that reputable multinational business technology consultancy colossuses have begun to lose vowel position.
Mrs B,
That kind of fetish porn only sells in Kentucky.
Now, Harry Reid in a Rubber suit packing a bullship, that might sell in Utah, because Reid is 9believe it or not) a devout Mormon
With samples that small it would be worth it (and possible) to look at the quality of these forecasters. E.g., how bullish were they a year ago? I think it will turn out that the academic economists had a better track record.
They're ALL "whistling past the graveyard".
Some louder than others...
(We've only had a sip of the bitter wine we're about to have to swallow.)
Being a resident of Ontario, Canada, I experienced the disaster of a Provincial government trying to 'counter' a world-wide recession by massive spending. When it finally dawned on them that they were headed toward bankruptcy, they then reversed course (Google "Rae Days" and think of current California moves), but the damage had been done.
@Statler. It doesn't sell in Utah but you can buy it just across the border in Nevada. In fact in those border town you can play poker, buy porn, and fornicate for a fee til your heart's content.
P.S. Isn't federalism wonderful?
Mrs Btch:
The world's biggest democracy for what its worth is India not the US. And election to both chambers does not make the US system superior to the UK - the idea is that one house should be a check and balance to the possible excesses of the other- if the memberships are comprised in different ways that is more likely to be achieved, surely.
Hmm, ST (or MR) has a reasonable point for once about India. Although I would not hold up the Indian system as ideal.
The other point I don't agree with. Appointment is not democratic, whichever way you cut it. There are lots of bicameral democracies. I don't recall many of them deciding to opt for appointment / inheritance as the best way to get people into the upper chamber.
Yeah, India is a pretty interesting case. But Freedom House has it down a couple of notches at a 2.5 on its Freedom Index; not at a 1 but still in the "free" category.
muy bien mr.President!!!
way to go:
"...Obama anuncia medidas para reducir la dependencia del petróleo
El presidente demócrata revierte decisiones de Bush.- Anuncia la fabricación de vehículos de consumo eficiente y dejará en manos de los Estados la limitación de los gases de efecto invernadero..."
http://www.elpais.com/articulo/sociedad/Obama/anuncia/medidas/reducir/dependencia/petroleo/elpepusoc/20090126elpepusoc_1/Tes#
ciao.
;)
I'm not convinced that that's the most effective way to sort your economists. To me, they fall into two groups: they work for places that developed/sold/promoted/invested in junk derivatives, or they don't. Seeing someone from Fannie Mae in with the commercial group feels like lumping a fox in with the sheep.
Does anyone else notice an optical illusion in the graph where the blue x-axis seems to slope downwards to the right?
Semi-OT questions.
One of the loony fringe wing-nut memes is that our financial predicament is not the worse since the depression and that late Carter was worse than it is now. If I encounter such views in person, I'm afraid I am not well enough informed than to engage in a, "'Tis not," "'Tis too," shouting match. So my questions.
1. Is there some known ur-source where the wing-nuts are getting this stuff.
2. Can you point me to a Sane and Sober (non-shouting and preferably not particularly partisan) refutation?
I really would like to do at least a little better than than observing that those who know what they are talking about seem to disagree.
@Nathan Cook. Yes. Read the preceding comments on this thread.
I wouldn't be surprised by these findings, but the sample size is too small. I am not sure how representative of economists at large it is much less using this small sample size to examine different types of practicing economists.
I find law professors to be different from economists, especially when arguing economic theory. Law professors (not all, but many) try arguing economic theory they learned when they were students from time to time, but they are not practicing economists and often do not theorize and test economics hypotheses in the same ways as economists.
The difference between private sector and academic economics seems bigger sometimes. Academic economists are third parties. They can examine the bigger picture without being influenced by the needs and desires of a company that a private sector economists might work for. Academic economists are also forced to have much of their research made public, peer reviewed, and have their methods scrutinized more. In the private sector some might keep better research standards than others, but we can not always review and evaluate that.
All of these predictions were made not knowing what kind of stimulus package will be implemented,when it will be implemented,etc.
Therefore they are total guesswork and totally useless.
Don't forget: The non-academic economists are the same people who enabled the current economic meltdown. Moody's? Standard and Poor's? These people failed egregiously. Believe what they say now at your own risk.
@JMNorris
The wingnuts are probably referring to the 'misery index' combining inflation rate + unemployment rate.
But today we are looking at market & banking system failures, which is a more fundamental category of bad. For example, the Dow was down about 5% for Carter's four years, whereas the Dow is down about 25% for GWB's two terms.
Looking at bank failures, according to the FDIC, 63 banks failed during Carter's tenure with $11B in assets, whereas under the last two years under GWB, 28 banks failed with $374B in assets. And that does not include the TARP banks that have not failed -- yet.
And let's not forget the nation debt (2.2MB PDF file): $1 trillion when Carter left office, $3T when Reagan left, $5T when Clinton left, and $10T now.
Can you do an analysis of their past prediction records over the last four quarters?
Want to do us a real service, Nate? go back as far as the WSJ does on these forecasts, and tell us who got it the rightest, mostest.
thanks,
Steve
I know there is a new thread, but from where I sit, the ACADEMIC ones professing gloom and doom are more in line with REALITY than the ones that make their money drumming up interest in Wall Street. Seems to me, if you expect people to be participating in the financial and industrial world, they would have a bias towards saying things will get better sooner and are not as bad.
I know there is a new thread, but from where I sit, the ACADEMIC ones professing gloom and doom are more in line with REALITY than the ones that make their money drumming up interest in Wall Street. Seems to me, if you expect people to be participating in the financial and industrial world, they would have a bias towards saying things will get better sooner and are not as bad.
Joe,
I appreciate your respect for academics. However, remember they are just people analyzing numbers. They aren't trying to -profess- 'gloom and doom.' The numbers do not look good and we are in a bad situation, but one thing academic and private sector economists seem to agree on is the -rate- of decline caused by the depression will be -slowing- in the next couple of quarters.
This means things will get worse, but lets not forget the first indication of things getting better will be for the rate of decline to slow.
The differences of opinion in this situation is how fast it slows and how fast it accelerates in the right direction.
This is also important for everyone to consider about the stimulus plan talks. Stimulus' are not designed to make everything instantly better, but instead try to speed up this process a little bit quicker.
What might make this chart more interesting (besides a larger sample that is random) is examining different opinions of how much the current stimulus plan will speed things up. How many economists agree with the multiplier effects on GDP offered by the Obama administration? ... and if they disagree... by how much?
(also random quip... I find it interesting that banks are more similar to academics than consultants and and investment firms... Could it be that consultants and investment firms need to sugar coat things a little bit to encourage continued business? These small changes might not be on purpose. It could be that these economists are socially influenced by the tone of the organizational cultures at their respective places of work environments.)
Mrs. B:
The electoral college prevents national recounts. Perhaps every state should go to the Maine/Nebraska district model. But having 2 senators per state was a compromise from the nation's founding to protect people in smaller, weaker states. They never would have joined without it and it's not fair to go back on it.
Nate...
I think your site has been hacked...when I open up the comments on the Coleman article after ten seconds or so a screeching feed of background noises comes on.
Might want to check it out...
PRAG
not sure if you were joking about the Coleman thread but just in case
the screeching sounf you heard was Norm realizing that he is gonna lose...
actually, Nate has the feed from the MN recount set to auto 'open' on that thread, so if there was no activity at the video site at the moment you connected below the fold then you might hear either 'screeching' or silence - check the video screen on that thread...
but the auto connect feature is/was annoying to me even when it works correctly
WV -repties [in MN what they call lizard people when Normie ends up in a deadlock after counting the popular vote...]
DCM in FL...
Ah, so that's it.
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