Ohio's George Voinovich will retire rather than run for re-election in 2010. When I was looking at senatorial career paths the other day, Voinovich had the track record that perhaps impressed me the most, having been governor, lieutenant governor, a Republican (although officially nonpartisan) mayor in the very Democratic city of Cleveland, and then serving two terms in the Senate.
GOP folks don't seem too upset, though, because one of their rising stars, former 2nd District Congressman and OMB director Rob Portman, is strongly considering a run for the position. Is Portman someone whom the Democrats should be worried about -- the de facto favorite against a Democratic candidate like Tim Ryan?
I'm not so sure. Even if the political climate has turned slightly more toward the Republicans in 2010, being a member of the Bush cabinet is not likely to be one of those things that sells all that well to voters - nor is "wonk" likely to play as well in a state like Ohio as "populist". Portman won election to the Congress seven times between 1993 and 2004, receiving between 70 and 77 percent of the vote on each occasion, but OH-2 is very conservative and that is pretty much par for the course for a Republican in that district. Nor is the electoral environment all that favorable for Republicans in Ohio right now, where they're now at roughly an 8-point disadvantage in partisan identification.
Still, Portman will have little trouble raising funds from Republican partisans, and could very easily accumulate as large a warchest as Voinovich might have had. He'll know how to hire a staff and how to run a campaign. And while his name recognition is probably pretty far from 100 percent statewide, he'll get plenty of earned media between now and then -- it's easy enough to imagine Portman becoming a semi-regular on FOX News or CNBC to talk about the economy.
Basically, he'll have most of the advantages that Voinovich would have had, as we'll as Voinovich's biggest disadvantage -- he's an establishment Republican in a state where establishment Republicans aren't very popular. Ultimately, this election will be a litmus test for how much voters blame Bush versus Obama if the economy is still tepid in 2010.
1.12.2009
Should the Democrats Fear Rob Portman?
@ 3:09 PM
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I don't think Portman's going to be a problem for the Democrats to overcome. He's way too tied with the an insurmountable deficit as the Director of OMB and as supporting dubious trade agreements while the US Trade Representative, especially the Columbia FTA. And there's no way the backer of such free-trade agreements is going to have any traction with Ohio's blue-collar voters.
From the state that brought you Ken Blackwell, Secretary of State?
Please. People in Ohio love Bushbots.
I take it this is not the Rob Portman on the Daily Show?
Ooph. "...impressed me the POST"
"...Voinovich would have had, as WE'LL as Voinovich's biggest disadvantage..."
C'mon Nate. Need a proof-reader or editor? I could use the work :)
So already, there are Republican retirements in OH, KS, FL, and MO. 3 of the 4 are swing states, and the fourth will be quite competitive if Sebelius runs. Add to this the fact that the nation in 2010 - though perhaps tilted less toward the Democrats than in 2008 - will surely be more tilted towards the Democrats than it was in 2004, the last time these seats were contested.
It seems very likely the Democrats will gain seats in the Senate in 2010.
By the way, Nate, howsabout updating the electoral history charts? I haven't been able to access them for a while. (Also, revies of pollster performances in the 2008 election would be nice.)
I am pretty confident that Obama is not going to take the flack for a bad economy, that albatross is already around Bush's neck and not coming off.
The only thing that would pin it on Obama is revelations of massive corruption or fraud on his watch; and it is early to be talking about that when the stimulus hasn't even happened. Republican's won't be able to blame him if they vote in the stimulus, and the public won't blame him if the largest stimulus EVER fails, he will have done all he could possibly do.
All this means the Republican brand will still be crap in 2010. Either the economy sucks and it is all the fault of Republican deregulation and tax cuts, or the economy is healthy and it is all due to Obama's stellar leadership. Republicans don't have a win either way! I doubt Portman could save the seat.
first?
Nate-
impressed me the post,
typo: should be most,not post.
Also,i don't think Director of OMB is a cabinet position.
Track records never impress me the post.
While Bush work generally equals political death, for some reason his folks on the OMB side and similar posts have had quite a life. I'm thinking Mitch Daniels in Indiana, for example.
If Porter can dedicate 2 years to campaigning to raise his profile like Daniels' infamous RV tour, that gives him a big advantage over anyone with a day job.
I confess to not knowing OH that well, but it seems that any chance for a D requires high turnout in urban centers like Cincy, Columbus and Cleveland. Hard to pull that off in a midterm without a top line state-wide race.
Ladies and Gents, I present to you.... (drum roll)
Tim Ryan!
* Voted YES on prohibiting job discrimination based on sexual orientation. (Nov 2007)
* Voted NO on Constitutionally defining marriage as one-man-one-woman. (Jul 2006)
* Voted NO on making the PATRIOT Act permanent. (Dec 2005)
* Voted NO on Constitutional Amendment banning same-sex marriage. (Sep 2004)
* Voted YES on protecting the Pledge of Allegiance. (Sep 2004)
* Voted NO on constitutional amendment prohibiting flag desecration. (Jun 2003)
* Rated 63% by the HRC, indicating a mixed record on gay rights. (Dec 2006)
* Rated 86% by the NAACP, indicating a pro-affirmative-action stance. (Dec 2006)
* Recognize Juneteenth as historical end of slavery. (Jun 2008)
Okay, so I'm not a fan of the Pledge, since it's basically asking children waaaay to young to understand the significance of an Oath to take one - thereby damaging the very notion of an Oath, which is supposed to be a solemn vow never to be broken. A child simply hasn't got the reasoning power to comprehend what they are saying, and to make it a group thing where everyone is told to participate, without the opportunity to decide if they really mean it or not kinda makes the idea of an Oath seem watered down. Any Oath you ever take should be from the heart, and of your own free will, after much consideration and acceptance of the responsibility to never break it.
Other than that, an okay guy. The Dems could do alot worse.
Surely there's a more charismatic and familiar Dem in OH than Ryan. Will that person please speak up? Please?
Does anyone have a take on how Voinovich's impending retirement will effect his vote in the Senate? Can we expect him to tow the party line now that he isn't under as much pressure to take a moderate stance, or will he buck his party's leadership since he doesn't really owe them anything either?
Portman & Ryan are both poor choices. Portman is adamantly pro-trade, which will provoke major backlash from unions-even if the economy as a whole improves, manufacturing jobs, especially in the auto industry, will decline, and the unions will blame it on free trade, and their members will turn out in droves to vote against Portman. State Auditor Mary Taylor is a better choice. She was elected in the heavily anti-Republican 2006 elections, has held statewide office & hasn't had to develop her positions yet-which means she can pick whatever views are the most electable and not be called a flip-flopper.
Ryan's from an archliberal(CPVI= D+14) district, and National Journal's '07 rankings put him to the left of Kucinich. Too liberal for Ohio. Secretary of State Jeniffer Brunner is a better choice-much like Taylor, she has statewide name recognition and can pick whatever views help her campaign without being called a flip-flopper.
What I would like to see as a follow-up to the election results is a correlation of the error of Nate's prediction with the level of poll information available. Were most of the large errors a result of infrequent or low-reliability polls? This was certainly true in DC.
Legendary,
It is not "Bush bashing" when a particular candidate's only high profile job was in the Bush WH, dealing with economic issues. It's called vetting.
You are correct that Dems can't run an anti-Bush only platform. The GOP will be all too happy to run away from the Bush legacy, and Obama showed you can be more than anti-Bush and win convincingly, so its unlikely that any major Dem campaign in 2010 will be focused solely on Bush. Still, Portman will have to work harder to distance himself from Bush than most - which is why I suspect he'll take a page from Mitch Daniels and do every hokey county fair in the state for two years, make himself look like "just folks" even though everything in his resume is to the contrary.
Burris is "in".
Victory for Blago and the politics of corruption
Loss for Change.
http://www.politico.com/blogs/bensmith/
Eric - Chris Bowers addresses that issue. He suggests Voinovich's (and other retiring Republican Senators') votes might take a job to the left in the near future.
The thing about Bob Portman is he is not a nutjob like Jean Schmidt or Ken Blackwell. So it makes it difficult for Democrats to defeat him but He has poor record on Trade and Economy being Bush's US Trade Representative and OMB Director.
Tim Ryan will easily defeat Bob Portman.
Eric-
I doubt Voinovich's retirement will make him more conservative while he's still in the Senate. After he was reelected 72-25 in the 1994 gubernatorial race, he stayed moderate, even though he could have gone conservative, and there was no way he could have known that his current Senate seat was going to be open in 1998.
One of Voinovich's strengths was his popularity with the Cleveland ethnic voters. No Democrat running against V got the overwhelming numbers they need in Northeast Ohio to beat the southwest Republicans. He had more to fear from one of the Limbots running against him in the primary. Portman doesn't have that. He's practically unknown north of Columbus. Of course Ryan is unknown downstate. If Strickland can deliver the southeast Appalacia votes for Ryan he's in but I wouldn't be surprised if Strickland has his own candidate in the wings. The democratic Party in Ohio is run by the southeasterners because they control the swing voters there. The lt. governor Lee Fisher would be a better bet although Columbus mayor Mike Coleman would be an intriguing candidate. Except for Strickland himself they are the only denmocrats with a statewide presence.
Burris getting in is a victory for the law as written over ends (in this case the cloud over Blago) justifying the means. However satisfying blocking him would be (and I hate his opportunistic guts)doing so in the face of the Il SC ruling would have validated, among other things, Blago's claims that he can't be impeached as long as he was trying to "do the right thing." It also continues the Bush theory of every improper or illegal act being justified by some "greater truth" like the bs of "keeping America safe."
Does anyone have a take on how Voinovich's impending retirement will effect his vote in the Senate? Can we expect him to tow the party line now that he isn't under as much pressure to take a moderate stance, or will he buck his party's leadership since he doesn't really owe them anything either?
It will depend on the issue, but it obviously would seem to help Obama. Given Ohio's dire economic condition, I think that GV's support on economic stimulus and stabilization will be present. He strikes me as a very pragmatic guy who will get behind something like federal support for the extension of unemployment benefits and other efforts to help state budgets. He might even help get behind some common-sense regulatory reform, unlike a far right ideologue like Shelby.
good to know that burris will be senator. that closes one big messy door in IL. Still mad about Franken not being there yet.
Hard to believe any one is to the LEFT of kucinich??? except maybe
myself.
speaking for myself this site has a wonderful air of civility today.
@Tony C.
Republican's won't be able to blame him if they vote in the stimulus, and the public won't blame him if the largest stimulus EVER fails, he will have done all he could possibly do.
I'm afraid have more confidence than you in the Republicans proficiency in outrageously spin and the public's ability to fall for.
wv. debar. This one's to easy. Does Gonzo come to mind? Blago?
am i the only one who doesnt mind burris? so some old guy wants to be senator, there were worse nominees.
Blago also had the legal right.
Livemild,
I don't know Burris enough to mind him (there are some pundits in Ill who hate him, but they also hate every other pol). I mind that he's opportunistic enough to play along with Blago, esp. since Blago's insanity is stopping good things that have been in the works for years and which did follow the right protocols and procedures. Like actually moving Illinois from the 1970s on how it cares for people with developmental disabilities.
Still, I'm glad we aren't having a Constitutional showdown over whether a rule that does not overtly state a Sec State signature is required (just sort of assumes there will be) puts an undue burden on the duly delegated right of the Gov of Illinois to designate anyone he wants who meets the legal requirements to be Senator. We've got bigger things to worry about.
I know nothing about Ohio state politics, but it seems Jennifer Brunner would be a great Dem candidate for the seat. She did an excellent job of ensuring the election ran smoothly (and proved she’s not afraid to do battle with the Republicans) and she certainly now has the name recognition.
Or, how about LeBron James? He'll be a free agent in 2010.
It's too soon to project 2010. We have to see how Dems manage their majority in 2009.
LOL Rufus
@ Berkeley: Back around the time when I was graduating from uni in '93 my mother, who was on the faculty there, told me that her colleague Dr. Berlean Burris had told her that dear Roland could always use me on a campaign.
"What's he running for, another term as AG?"
"Governor."
"He hasn't got a chance."
Flash forward 15 years, and I can say now that if he runs to hold onto that senate seat in two years' time, I'll be working my ass off to get him outta there. You in?
with this moderation thingy, hard to tell, but: first?
I also forgot to add that I don't think Portman would do all that well (Ohio seems to prefer moderate candidates, and currently we're blaming Bush for the economy--I don't think that will change any time soon) and from skimming some of the other comments regarding Ken Blackwell, I'd like to point out that to me, 2004 (which was 4 years ago with a bad secretary of state) wasn't a fair election and a large number of people were disenfranchised. In case anyone missed it, Ohio went pretty strongly for Obama in 2008 with a secretary of state who made sure the election was fair.
King,
Absolutely correct. The political world can change in a day, and two years is beyond our capacity to project.
That said, if the Dems manage the next two years wisely and avoid any major scandals, I see no reason why Ryan will not be able to win. It is true that Ohio's voting record is swingish, but the current trend is pushing increasingly toward liberal moderates and away from conservatism. A successful next two years could be the motive force behind Ohio's shift farther in that direction.
Much of this rides on Obama's performance. Imagining two extremes, one good (Bin-Laden captured, End of War in Iraq, recession ended, employment market improves, social program successfully implemented, civil rights legislation passed, environmental policies demonstratively improve conditions, etc) one bad (Depression, neverending war, social and environmental policies stalled in Congress) I can see one of two possible outcomes, the former looking like Camelot and the latter looking like the Chicago convention on 1968.
"From the state that brought you Ken Blackwell, Secretary of State?
Please. People in Ohio love Bushbots."
Excuse me, but I live in OH-2, and I don't love "Bushbots" nor Bush (and especially not Jean Schmidt. She only won because of that idiot independent who stole half of Wulsin's vote.)
If I have summer 2010 open, I will work for the campaign against Portman for sure.
As an Ohioan (and Clevelander to boot), I think that the 2010 race will be very interesting. I never voted for Voinovich, but compared to some of the other Republicans in the state he wasn't too bad. I think it was a good point for him to decide to retire-he would have had a difficult time with reelection, and if the dems found a good pro-gun candidate, he wouldn't have done well in southern Ohio.
I think Jennifer Brunner would be a good candidate, but I also think that she could be under pressure to run again as Secretary of State. There are a fair number of candidates on each side who might be good, but so far no one is coming across to me as strong so far.
Berkeley Bear in Illinois said...
If Porter can dedicate 2 years to campaigning to raise his profile like Daniels' infamous RV tour, that gives him a big advantage over anyone with a day job.
Some major differences between Indiana and Ohio, thus whether Daniels strategy would cross to Portman winning Ohio:
1. Indiana is traditionally a Republican state - prior to 2008, the last time an R Presidential candidate won the state was 1964. Ohio is Republican leaning, but not a consistently solid red state;
2. When Daniels was first elected as Gov., it was in 2004, before the citizens of the nation, let alone those in the state of Indiana, really recognized the disaster of the Bush administration. Remember that in 2004, the Iraq war fever was still very high, especially in red states (ala Indiana);
3. In 2004, the incumbent (Kernan) was a Democratic 'accidental' governor, coming to office because the governor (O'Bannon) had died in September 2003, and just months after Kernan had stated that he would not run for governor;
4. In 2008, the Dems had a weak candidate, although there are not that many Dems who would have been available as the Dems have a very weak bench statewide. The Dem strength in Indiana is in Lake County and Indianapolis, but their strengths there do not translate statewide. Fort Wayne is pink to red, and Allen County is even redder. The only other major pockets of support are in South Bend and Evansville, but the collar suburbs of those metro areas cancel out the Dem advantage in the cities, thus the Dem strength in those cities doesn't translate statewide. The other metro areas (Terre Haute, Muncie, Anderson, etc.) are too small to have a statewide influence. And forget about Bloomington - it is considered the 'Moscow' of the state, or Indiana's equivalent of California's Berkeley.
Judges named to hear Coleman suit
Berkeley Bear in Illinois said...
If Porter can dedicate 2 years to campaigning to raise his profile like Daniels' infamous RV tour, that gives him a big advantage over anyone with a day job.
Some major differences between Indiana and Ohio, thus whether Daniels strategy would cross to Portman winning Ohio:
1. Indiana is traditionally a Republican state - prior to 2008, the last time an R Presidential candidate won the state was 1964. Ohio is Republican leaning, but not a consistently solid red state;
2. When Daniels was first elected as Gov., it was in 2004, before the citizens of the nation, let alone those in the state of Indiana, really recognized the disaster of the Bush administration. Remember that in 2004, the Iraq war fever was still very high, especially in red states (ala Indiana);
3. In 2004, the incumbent (Kernan) was a Democratic 'accidental' governor, coming to office because the governor (O'Bannon) had died in September 2003, and just months after Kernan had stated that he would not run for governor;
4. In 2008, the Dems had a weak candidate, although there are not that many Dems who would have been available as the Dems have a very weak bench statewide. The Dem strength in Indiana is in Lake County and Indianapolis, but their strengths there do not translate statewide. Fort Wayne is pink to red, and Allen County is even redder. The only other major pockets of support are in South Bend and Evansville, but the collar suburbs of those metro areas cancel out the Dem advantage in the cities, thus the Dem strength in those cities doesn't translate statewide. The other metro areas (Terre Haute, Muncie, Anderson, etc.) are too small to have a statewide influence. And forget about Bloomington - it is considered the 'Moscow' of the state, or Indiana's equivalent of California's Berkeley.
If Tim Ryan runs- He will have the nomination locked up. He gets endorsed by Ted Strickland and Sherrod Brown. For Ryan's old US House Seat- expect Capri Cafaro and Tom Sawyer to run for Ryan's old seat.
@livemild
Echo sentiment on civility. Moderation is a little more restricting than I'd prefer but it sure is nice to not endure tantrums from pshycos anymore. Let us not ever speak (er,...type) of the troll again.
I am bothered by the Burris thing on several levels. 1). he accepted. Which tells me he is more opportunistic than altruistic. 2). they played the race card as though there were some affirmative action clause for being in the Senate. That works fine in the workplace (before anyone starts thinking I am racist, YES I think there should be equal representation in the Senate; just not like this). 3).It seemed to me Burris spent more time trying to convince himself as much as us that he was qualified for the spot. I would have much rather had Davis but he did the honorable thing and declined. Now we are deprived of having someone more qualified because of Gov. F-bomb's taint. 4). This is the only way that Burris would EVER be in the Senate.
I'm sure he won't do a lot of damage but it just ticks me off how Blago slapped us all in the face.
Does anyone from Minnesota have a take on these judges? I hope they are as fair and thorough as the canvassing board.
Also, here's to moderation!
Don't forget that Hamilton County went Democratic in the last election - and the first district replaced an incumbent Rep with a Dem. Jean Schmidt remains my Congresswoman (shudder) in the 2nd district in part because the Dems haven't found anyone decent to run against her. So Portman can't necessarily count on that much support from (formerly very conservative) Cincinnati....
I might have voted for GV. The chances of the Reps finding another moderate seem to be slim to none.
Mike in Md,
Having spent 2 years in Bloomington, and 8 in Indy, I'm pretty clear on how the political map of the state works. The reason Lake County/Indy (and that's only metro Indy) doesn't translate state wide is largely socio-economic as you probably know. Specifically, while southern Indiana will vote for white, culturally conservative down-state dems (like Bayh and then O'Bannon, who won the last 3 elsections for Gov before Daniels) don't vote for what they perceive as "urban" candidates. Basically, the same BS that made Reid think any African American from Chicago was "unelectable."
Yes, O'Bannon's untimely death hurt, but it also hurt that 16 years of Dem governors had created enough resentment of them as the party of power to make it easy for Mitch to run as a counterpoint. My only real point was that Mitch's free time allowed him to essentially to make himself ubiquitous in a way Kernan or any Dem really couldn't, even though he's a terrible speaker, had no real policy arguments and spoke mainly in platitudes about running the state like a business. BTW, anyone who does that after the privatization debacles of the last decade should be tossed in the rubber room.
And, once in, getting someone out is brutal - even as Daniels and the state have gone to heck, and Obama took the state, Daniels easily won reelection.
Whitley
If Burris keeps his original pledge, we won't need to work at it. When he doesn't though, yes, I will be supporting the effort to toss him on his keister.
Berkeley Bear,
I should point out to you that although I'm now living in Maryland (and have done so for more than 35 years), I grew up in NE Indiana and still have dozens of relatives in the state with whom I communicate with very often. I am very aware of the politics in the state, the history of race in politics, and the KKK (and its sympathizers) in southern Indiana and in other parts of the state (American Knights of the Ku Klux Klan and Jeff Berry in Butler, for instance), and some of the historic effects of that influence on state politics.
And you must remember that the environment of the 2004 election in Indiana, and the history of the elections in Indiana leading up to that election, were a lot different than the environment of the 2010 election in any other state, including Ohio.
In other words, anything about the 2004 Indiana Gubernatorial election would be extremely difficult to translate to any other state in 2010. Your reasoning of Daniels' state tour could be similar to Janet Reno's 'Little Red Truck' tour of Florida - how did that work out for her election run?
Perhaps it is because of where I live (Northern KY, outside of Cincinnati) or the fact that I grew up in Portman's Congressional district, seeing him at local events, but I would say that while Ohio went blue for Obama, I have a harder time seeing it go blue for a senate seat. Portman has always been well liked by those around home so I would guess that as you go further up the state is where his issues will be when it comes to finding votes.
"[Portman will] know how to hire a staff and how to run a campaign."???
Why do you say this? He's never run a real race - ever. Not once, as you point out.
Interesting quote from a Republicans in CNN's article about Voinovich's upcoming retirement and the position this puts the GOP in with defense of seats:
". . . John Feehery, a Republican strategist and CNN contributor, said the GOP shouldn't panic just yet, especially considering Democrats control all three branches of government and the economy shows little signs of recovering in the near future."
http://www.cnn.com/2009/POLITICS/01/12/senate.republicans
Portman is more moderate than you guys and gals are giving credit for. Notwithstanding his stints in Bush Administration roles (OMB and USTR -- both of which I agree will act as a liability in the general election), his personality and his politics were both closer to the political center than most other House R's. That moderation is, on balance, an asset when you consider the way Ohioans tend to vote.
I do think the field is much larger than just Portman, however. Former Senator Mike DeWine may very well be in the mix (and still has a strong following in many parts of the state despite his loss in '06), John Kasich may forgo the Governor's race and run for Senate instead, Blackwell may run if (when?) he loses the RNC Chair race, and there's also some possibility one of Ohio's House GOPers may decide to run, knowing that the Dems will redistrict him/her out of a seat after the 2010 census (recall that OH will be losing 2 seats in almost any scenario, and that Dems currently control enough statewide offices to control the redistricting process). Former OH AG Betty Montgomery was always popular and lost in a stunner in '06 -- so she may also be someone to watch. Of all of these candidates, most would certainly go down in flames -- but a few would put up a very credible run (DeWine, Kasich, and one or two of the House members).
Looking at the Dem side of the ledger, I've heard for quite some time that Rep. Ryan has higher aspirations and expect him to run. Capri Cafaro just ascended to the State Senate Majority Leader's post, so I wonder whether she'd be content to stay put, clearing the way for Sawyer to return to Congress, or for someone else with a strong union backing to take Ryan's seat.
Whatever the calculus, I'd caution against applying a 2006 or 2008 metric to this 2010 race. The in party and governing structure in OH will have fully turned over by the time voters decide in 2010, and the current anti-Bush sentiment will have waned considerably. Any anger in voters' minds in OH may well be directed more squarely on the Dem. Governor, the Democratically-controlled state legislature, the Dem POTUS, and Dem Congress.
Had a much longer comment, but it apparently didn't go through. Oh well.
Suffice to say, the conversation above is far too focused on Portman, and not focused enough on a few other potentially credible GOP candidates, including former Senator Mike DeWine and former House Budget Chairman John Kasich (plus perhaps former OH AG Betty Montgomery). On the Dem side of the ledger, I doubt any one candidate would be able to clear the field, assuming Gov. Strickland stays with his current job.
More than that, I'd strongly caution against applying a 2006 or 2008 metric to this 2010 race. Aside from Voinivich, Ohioans are under one party rule starting Jan. 20 from the state legislature all the way to the President, and to the extent things are going badly in the state it is a huge mistake to assume that voters will continue to blame Republicans rather than Democrats for that state of affairs.
Kasich?
Would the 'he's a Serb' label hurt him in Ohio, along with some Blago references to tie them together (even if there is no tie)?
@JMNorris: I'm afraid have more confidence than you in the Republicans proficiency in outrageously spin and the public's ability to fall for.
Obama is the most Teflon candidate ever. I thought Bill Clinton couldn't be beat in the non-stick department, but Obama is like Neo at the end of The Matrix, he blocks every punch, kick and throw.
Republicans are still trying to use the 2000, 2004 playbook on Dems, and it has lost power. They spin and lie, bait gays, bait race, bait deficits, bait high taxes and big government, bait terror attacks, and none of the bait is catching any voter-fish.
The old magic is gone, and the proof is in the retirement of the old Republican front-line. The tide is out because the proof is in the pudding. The majority think the war was a mistake, the tax cuts were a mistake, deregulation was a mistake, the economy is in the tank and corruption reigns in politics, and the majority pin it on the Republican failed, simplistic philosophy of tax cuts and free markets being inherently good.
The aphorism is "You can't argue with success," its opposite would be "You can't argue with failure."
A Democratic 51-seat majority can't override a Republican Presidential veto, people know that. They blame the current situation, in Washington and on Wall Street, on Republicans.
I don't underestimate their ability or propensity to lie, I just see no evidence of people buying it anywhere near the level they would need to win an election. The Republicans are like McCain and Palin, old school lies and deception that appeal to 35% of the electorate and make the other 65% laugh. You can't argue with failure, and they have been unquestionably in charge of the ship of state and run it aground. Platitudes and lies won't fly in the face of failure.
And I think the penetration of Internet and cable news will continue this trend.
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Excuse me, but I live in OH-2, and I don't love "Bushbots" nor Bush (and especially not Jean Schmidt. She only won because of that idiot independent who stole half of Wulsin's vote.)
35% of Wulsin's funding came from out of state, compared to Schmidt's 11%. Sorry, I live in SE Ohio as well - people here love their Bushbots. The crankier, nastier, and more politically divisive, the better.
Can't always blame losses on Independent candidates.
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