In the wake of Jeb Bush's surprising announcement today that he will not run for Senate in Florida in 2010, this seems like an appropriate time for the monthly refresh of our ridiculously premature 2010 Senate Rankings.
To review the basic ground rule: the races are ranked in terms of their likelihood of changing parties. In some cases, the ranking is the result of an incumbent being vulnerable, and in other cases, because the incumbent may retire -- we try our best to mesh these things together into some inkling of probability. Away we go:
1. Florida (R-Open) 
Without Bush in the race, the field is wide open on both sides. Given an open seat and one of the purplest purple states in the country, that means this race meets the very definition of a toss-up.
2. Nevada (D-Reid)
No, the Republicans don't really have a credible opponent yet, but one thing the past few weeks have made clear is that Reid is going to be a focal point for criticism -- from both the right and the left -- and there's a strong likelihood that someone will come out of the woodwork. I also think people may be underrating the chances that Reid gets sick of it all and retires.
3. Pennsylvania (R-Specter)
Looking more likely that Specter may face a primary challenge, but the general election remains his central concern. The Chris Mathews rumors have cooled off some, but it's not clear whether that's good or bad news for Specter.
4. Ohio (R-Voinovich)
5. Kentucky (R-Bunning)
6. Kansas (R-Open) 
Remains an overlooked race; if Kathleen Sebelius wants the seat, she probably has a leg up. But there are rumors that she'll become chancellor at the University of Kansas rather than running for Senate.
7. Missouri (R-Bond)
8. Illinois (D-??)
I'm not sure what other possible permutation of circumstances could do more to make a generally safely blue seat competitive. Still, the Democratic bench is fairly strong, and they're lucky this is all taking place in Illinois instead of, say, Ohio.
9. Colorado (D-Bennet)
I was prepared to move this race down when it looked like Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper was going to be Ken Salazar's replacement, but with unknown schools superintendent Michael Bennet getting the nod instead, it becomes a much more attractive target for Republicans. Still, the state is turning bluer, and most of their candidates haven't polled very well against nearly any Democrat. They may also wind up punting on this race if they make the mistake of nominating Tom Tancredo.
10. North Carolina (R-Burr)
11. New Hampshire (R-Gregg)
12. Texas (R-Open?)
It appears nearly certain that Kay Bailey Hutchinson will vacate her seat to run for Governor, and now the Republicans will have a formidable opponent, as moderate Dem and Houston Mayor Bill White has declared his interest in the race.
13. Iowa (R-Grassley)
Although polling suggests that Tom Vilsack could make a race of things, it's improbable that he'll run unless Grassley retires -- and what I'm hearing from Iowa constituents is that Grassley is unlikely to do so. (ed: Forgot that Vilsack will become Secretary of Agriculture. Still, if Grassley retires, there will be no shortage of strong Democratic challengers for the seat --nrs).
14. Delaware (D-Open)
15. Arizona (R-McCain)
16. New York (Jr.) (D-??)
Long Island Congressman Peter King is apparently interested in challenging Caroline Kennedy -- or whomever else Governor Paterson puts in this seat. Although King himself is not very likely to win, the fact that he's willing to give up a House seat that he'll probably never win back suggests that Republicans don't consider the race off-limits. Democrats might not consider the seat off-limits either, potentially giving Kennedy a vigorous primary challenge.
17. Arkansas (D-Lincoln)
18. California (D-Boxer)
19. North Dakota (D-Dorgan)
20. Connecticut (D-Dodd)
21. Alaska (R-Murkowski)
New polling in this race suggests that Lisa Murkowski is vulnerable, most certainly to a primary challenge by Sarah Palin and possibly in the general election too. But, the Democratic bench in Alaska is not strong.
22. Oklahoma (R-Coburn)
23. Wisconsin (D-Feingold)
24. Hawaii (D-Inoyue)
25. Georgia (R-Isakson)
26. Louisiana (R-Vitter)
27. Maryland (D-Mikulski)
28. South Carolina (R-DeMint)
29. Washington (D-Murray)
30. Vermont (D-Leahy)
31. Alabama (R-Shelby)
32. South Dakota (R-Thune)
33. Indiana (D-Bayh)
34. Oregon (D-Wyden)
35. Utah (R-Bennett)
36. New York (Sr.) (D-Schumer)
37. Idaho (R-Crapo)
1.06.2009
Senate Rankings, January 2009 Edition
@ 8:41 PM
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83 comments
Would love to see Reid go down.
First?
I was sick when Obama tapped Napoleatano (i bet i butchered that) She could have pulled AZ from McCain's hands....would have been a grand repayment for his feckless presidential campaign.
WV: breakit: What I want to do to Mule Rider's spirit (or more gratifyingly, nose)
Umm.. remind us, what do the green "up" and the red "down" arrows mean?
"Although King himself is not very likely to win, the fact that he's willing to give up a House seat that he'll probably never win back suggests that Republicans don't consider the race off-limits."
I think it more likely suggests that King knows that his district is going to get re-districted out of existence come 2010, since NY is going to lose a seat and Democrats will redraw the map.
I saw a PPP poll today showing King VERY competitive against Kennedy. Don't completely write this one off.
I'm still hoping Paterson appoints Gillibrand.
In PA you may want to take another look at prospects of a serious primary challenge to Specter. In 2004 Specter eked out a win over then Congressman Pat Toomey and only with the serious intervention of President Bush. Toomey is mulling another run and practically promised to make the race if Arlen votes for the Employee Free Choice Act. Specter's camp is very concerned that 60,000 moderate Republicans switched their party affiliation in the 2008 election. As the PA party has become more marginalized it has become decidely more conservative.
Woot! I like this feature. If all the top 6 go this way, the Republicans lose 5 and the Dems 1. This gives the Dems +4, bringing their numbers to 63. Wow.
8th!
With a name like Crapo...
"now the Democrats will have a formidable opponent, as moderate Dem and Houston Mayor Bill White"
don't you mean "now the Democrats will have a formidable candidate", or "now the Republicans will have a formidable opponent"?
Would love to see Reid go down.
That's something we can all agree on.
No speculation on a possible Robin Carnahan run in Missouri? Two polls over the last year show Carnahan polling near Bond with Bond under 50%.
Granted Robin is the only shot to unseat Bond, but she did just receive the most votes of any Missouri statewide candidate last year.
Would love to see Reid go down.
That's what she s.... no, I can't do it. I just can't.
btw, I'm sure Nate will catch this quick, but it's JEB Bush.
With regard to Murkowski-Palin, that mid-December poll does not constitute "new" polling. Reports in "The Hill" suggest that time has taken its toll on Palin:
"A Dittman Research poll shows Murkowski leading this year’s GOP vice presidential nominee in the hypothetical matchup, 57-33, according to KTUU-TV in Anchorage. That contrasts with a Research 2000 poll from mid-December that showed Palin on top 55-31."
Here's the KTUU poll link
http://www.ktuu.com/Global/story.asp?S=9622031
Nate, I also can't figure out what the green/red up/down arrows mean. Help?
I think the North Carolina seat should be moved up. If an unknown, but good campaigner can knock off Elizabeth Dole - head of Senate Republican campaign in 2004 - then a good Democrat should have a real shot at this increasingly blue state.
I fear Kentucky may be wishful thinking as it seems to get redder and so would move it down.
As to PA, Specter of PA has three problems: 1.Decreasing number of registered Republicans in Pa so he has lost much of his moderate base which makes the closed primary a real challenge.
2. Labor was a big help to him last time. Any wavering on his part and he loses their support. But if he stands by labor, he loses the conservatives.
3. He has had a recurrence of a deadly form of cancer only 3 years after the first remission. His age is against him on this.
This is a seat the Dems should take.
Interested Pennsylvanian.
Spam210wal,
Your lips to God's ear. Gillibrand would be a far superior pick to Kennedy or Cuomo.
I don't think Dirty Harry(NV)should be number 2 of the list. The Republicans in Nevada don't have a top tier challenger (Krolicki has been indicted, Porter lost his House Seat. ).
My 2010 ranking would be.
1)Florida-(OPEN-Martinez-R)-DEM Pickup. Open Seat election. Democrats have a top tier Candididate-(Alex Sink)- Republicans will have a divisive primary between second/third tier candidates.
2)Kentucky-(Bunning-R)-DEM Pick up. Bunning is a weak incumbent- Old,Controversial and has won both US Senate races by narrow margins. Democrats have plenty of top tier candidates that may run against Bunning- Chandler,Mongiardo,Conway and Luallen- any of those Democrats can unseat Bunning.
3)North Carolina-(Burr-R)-DEM pick up The Burr seat is a curse seat- It switched every 6 years since Ervin left in 1974. Democrats have plenty of top tier challengers - AG Roy Cooper,US Rep Heath Schuler.
4)Pennsylvania-(Specter-R)-DEM Pick up if Specter retires or loses in the primary. Tossup- Democrats have top tier challengers- Philadephia Area US Reps Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murphy.
5)Ohio-(Voinovich-R)- DEM Pickup if Voinovich retires. Tossup- Democrats have plenty of top tier challengers- Lt Governor Lee Fisher.US Rep Tim Ryan.
6)Missouri-(Bond-R)- DEM Pickup if Bond retires. Tossup- Democrats have plenty of top tier challengers- Robin or Russ Carnahan.
7)New Hampshire-(Gregg-R)- Tossup if Gov Lynch runs. Leans Republican Retention if Hodes or Shea Porter runs.
8)Colorado-(Bennett-D)- (Tossup)Bennett is the appointed US Senator has low name recognition and has not won any elections. The likely Republican Nominee- is State AG John Suthers.
9)Illinios- (OPEN-D)- Leans Democratic- Both sides will have a competive primary. DEM(Hynes vs Schakowsky). REP(Kirk vs Roskam).
10)New York-(Clinon Seat-D)- Leans Democratic- Democratic Replacement will be either Andrew Cuomo or Caroline Kennedy. Republican nominee is wingnut LI Congressman Peter King.
11)Texas-(Hutchison Seat-R)-Leans Republican.
12)Kansas-(OPEN-Brownback-R)- Leans Republican.
13)Louisiana-(Vitter-R)
14)Oklahoma-(Coburn-R)
15)Nevada-(Reid-D)
16)Arizona-(McCain-R)
17)Iowa-(Grassley-R)
18)Delaware-(OPEN Biden-D)
19)Connecticut-(Dodd-D)
20)Alaska-(Murkowski-R)
21)California-(Boxer-D)
22)Wisconsin-(Feingold-D)
23)Washington-(Murray-D)
24)Arkansas-(Lincoln-D)
25)North Dakota(Dorgan-D)
26)Hawaii-(Inouye-D)
27)Georgia-(Isakson-R)
28)Maryland-(Mikulski-D)
29)South Carolina-(DeMint-R)
30)Vermont-(Leahy-D)
31)Alabama-(Shelby-R)
32)South Dakota-(Thune-R)
33)Indiana-(Bayh-D)
34)Oregon-(Wyden-D)
35)Utah-(Bennett-R)
36)New York(Schumer-D)
37)Idaho(Crapo-R)
If the FLA race is "the very definition of a toss-up," how can it also be the likeliest to produce a Democratic winner?
Logic doesn't quite add up to me.
That said, Nate Silver rules
Or rather, the likeliest to produce a winner of the opposite party than presently holds the seat.
@Mark,
Glad to know others agree with me on this point.
I still say it's far too early for 2010 projections. That said, it's a little sad that Jeb is not running in Florida; this would have made a perfect test of how badly W has damaged the Bush family's electability, and a loss could have been the stimulus for a GOP transformation from neo-con extremism to something better.
I aggree that Gillibrand would be the best thingf or New York. Her write-in campaign for the Congress was impressive, and her career so far has been as well. Sadly, I think the Cuomo and Kennedy families can outspend her, especially since Patterson's vote is the only one that matters right now. Still, Patterson is a principled man, even if his tax policies are abominable. He might just decide to forgo isolating Cuomo or schmoozing the Kennedy clan (and their money) in favor of what's best for NY.
Specter, it would be sad to see him depart, only because he is one of the few remaining moderates in a party increasingly prone to divisiveness.
Louisiana is swinging farther to the Right, and barring some freak occurrence like if Jindal loses his mind in public and announces that he is in fact the lovechild of Napoleon and Elvis, it's hard to imagine Vitter losing. Sex scandals just don't have the same impact down here as they do in the rest of the US, even kinky ones. Mitch Landrieu could make a strong opponent, if he can get around the fact that his sister is the other Senator from LA, and one family would effectively be dominating Louisiana's federal delegation.
Burris Burris Burris... if he gets seated, he will lose in 2010. Guaranteed.
Has anyone seen the new Vanity Fair? Nate has reached and Oprah-like level of stardom!
check it out.
http://www.vanityfair.com/politics/features/2009/02/wolcott200902?currentPage=1
Jersey: Presumably the arrows mean if the new information he's written about the individual seats make them more or less likely the change hands (butts?)
Florida is currently #1 because I don't think any race in the country is presently more likely than not to change hands. So a seat that is 50% likely to change parties, as Florida roughly is, ranks at the top.
Nate, of all the bloggers in the bloggosphere, I usually think you are right on. Reid may be vulnerable, but just like for Daschle, the stars had to align with opportunity, money and an A-list candidate. People in Nevada love to hate Harry, but when push comes to shove, we're used to voting for him. More importantly, there is no John Thune waiting in the wings. Of the top Republican contenders for his seat, two went down in their own re-election battle and a third is under indictment. The Clark County Commission no longer has a Republican serving, and both legislative houses have Democratic majorities. Governor Gibbons approval ratings are exceptionally low and is likely to be challenged by Reid's own son, Rory. Finally, if a Republican was found who was credible enough to mount a challenge, he would have to pick off enough votes in both Clark County (Las Vegas) and Washoe County (Reno) - both trending significantly more Democratic than the last time Reid was re-elected. While he may be less popular having become the lightning rod, he now gets to lead a majority with a friendly administration. Barring both Reid and Obama falling flat, I think number two is way, way too high.
Hawaii deserves closer attention. Governor Lingle is term-limited, and she has already been elected twice state-wide. Senator Inouye is a local institution, but he'll be 86 years old. Lingle might challenge Inouye, or his health could preclude a 2010 run.
I have no idea how good this poll is, but this is rather interesting. I though Palin would just waltz backwards into the senate if she so chose...
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2009/01/06/murkowski_would_crush_palin.html
I too think King has a better chance that you're giving him credit for. Me thinks that if the GOP puts up a legitimate candidate (King fits the bill), the upstate Republicans will turn out, especially if the Kennedy pick (if she's chosen at all) proves to be ultimately unwise and uninspiring.
And if he loses, he can absolutely win his seat back in LI. Sure, Republicans in the northeast are a dying breed, but King has a pretty decent grip on his seat.
Unless Richard Blumenthal gives a primary run, Dodd is a lot safer than the ranking you gave him. Scandal or not. CT has 0 viable Republicans for the seat.
Regarding Harry Reid(NV).
Had Jon Porter(NV-3) won re-election in 2008. Harry Reid would have been vulnerable in losing his seat in 2010. A Porter vs Reid matchup in 2010 is similar to the Ensign vs Reid matchup in 1998.
In 2010- their are alot of Governors up for re-election who are term limited.
CA- Arnold is less likely to run for US Senate- He is more of an Executive type person.
HI- Lingle is less likely to challenge Inouye who is Hawaii's Robert Byrd.
KS- We need to keep an eye on Governor Sebelius.
OK- Brad Henry will make a race against Tom Coburn.
PA- Rendell may run only if Specter retires.
Vinny said...
Would love to see Reid go down.
That's something we can all agree on.
Yes, I just hope he goes down in the Dem primary, not the general election.
Slater N Waldorf said:
Burris Burris Burris... if he gets seated, he will lose in 2010. Guaranteed.
I think the Dems should just seat him, put this whole nasty mess behind them, and move on to get things done like the American people NEED them to. This is an unneeded distraction right now.
In 2 years, if Jesse Jackson Jr or Valerie Jarrett want the seat, they can run for it in the Dem Primary. I'm sure either one could beat Burris and the Dems would have a strong candidate for the General.
I also think Delaware,North Dakota and Arkansas are pretty safe.
Dorgan(ND)is pretty popular and it is highly unlikely that Governor Hoevan will run.
Other than Huckabee who is focused on a 2012 Presidential run than running for the US Senate. Republican do not have any top tier candidates in Arkansas.
Regarding the Delaware Seat- It is highly unlikely Mike Castle who is 70 will give up a Safe US House Seat to run for US Senate.
Interesting that both NY seats are open. How does the primary and election work for that? Do the candidates need to run for a specific seat (A/B)? Would the Republican primary be a pick two? Would the general be a pick two, where the top two vote getters win? Seems a little ridiculous, but I could see a scenario where voters want to split the seats D&R, but they want two listed for the same seat (i.e. I want both the repub and dem running for seat A and none of the above in seat B).
PiexoGato
"In 2 years, if Jesse Jackson Jr or Valerie Jarrett want the seat, they can run for it in the Dem Primary. I'm sure either one could beat Burris and the Dems would have a strong candidate for the General."
Jesse Jackson Jr and Rolland Burris share the same constituency in the primary. The liberal or moderate white voters who supported Obama will go to Jan Schakowsky.
Peter said...
I think it more likely suggests that King knows that his district is going to get re-districted out of existence come 2010, since NY is going to lose a seat and Democrats will redraw the map.
King's district, as it now exists, will still be there in 2010.
The census is in 2010 (April 1 is the date of record), but the census won't be able to release the state-by-state population counts until late 2010 (usually in November or December of the year the census is taken). Thus the states won't do the actual redistricting until the following legislative session (2011 in most [all?] states). A few might wait until early 2012 to redistrict, or court challenges and/or Justice Department review in one or more states could cause some redistricting to go to 2012. Thus the new redistricting takes effect with the 2012 races.
David Wien
Regarding the New York Seats.
The Schumer Seat is a regular Election. The Clinton seat is a Special Election to complete the remaining term which does not expire until 2012.
Schumer-NY is very popular- It is highly unlikely any top tier or second tier Republicans will challenge Schumer. (Shotgun Randy Kuhl or Wife Beater John Sweeney)
Regarding the Clinton Seat- If Andy Cuomo is appointed- Peter King does not run. If Caroline Kennedy is appointed- Peter King will run. - I expect a Kennedy vs King race to be like the Clinton-Lazio race.
David Wein,
Regarding NY Senate races:
There are two separate contests in the elections, so the seats are shown as two distinct races on the primary ballot, and on the general election ballot. One election is to fill the remainder of the term of the state of New York's Class I Senate seat (currently held by Senator Clinton); the other election is to fill the state of New York's Class III Senate seat (currenty held by Senator Schumer).
All Senate Class I seats are up for election in 2012, so whoever wins the 2010 race has to run again in 2012 to keep the Senate seat. That's why the candidate's ability to raise election funds can be so important, especially in large states like New York.
Nate! Please...give us a break...the 111th Congress is two days old. Can we wait until 1/20/09....please.
George in SF
I'm a little tired of the national media's theory that the seat in IL is vulnerable. The GOP in this state lacks the resources or candidate talent to eek out a win. The state's Democrats didn't avoid a special election here because they were afraid of losing the seat, there just isn't enough cooperation within their own party to get much of anything done. The budgets of the last few years exemplify how a party with vast majorities can factionalize and proceed to eat itself.
I agree with the above poster who noted that Chicago's African-American community will probably be fragmented if Burris, Jackson and/or Jarrett decide to enter the primary, though I'm not certain that Schakowsky has enough pull downstate to win, especially if Hynes, Duckworth, or Lisa Madigan enter the race.
Eddie Van.
I only mentioned Schakowsky because she is the most progressive candidate in the race.
Barack Obama won the Democratic nomination in 2004 against State Comptroller Dan Hynes with 51% of the popular vote in a 7 way race
because he build a coalition with Black Voters which take 35% of the Voting population in the IL Democratic Primary plus the Liberal White vote-(Paul Simon/Lane Evans voters). JJJ will take most of the Black Votes-especially the young community organizers and He will also appeal to Hispanics. Burris will only get support from Old Black Voters- Jesse Jackson Sr voters. Regarding the White candidates in the race. Schakowsky who is the most progressive candidate in the race will get the White Liberal voters in the Chicago Area and also in the NorthWest and DownState. Duckworth will take the Moderate votes in the Chicago Suburbs. Hynes or Madigan will appeal to the Moderate votes outside the Chicago Area- NW Illinios and Downstate.
"Regarding the Delaware Seat- It is highly unlikely Mike Castle who is 70 will give up a Safe US House Seat to run for US Senate."
I don't see why this would be the case. The House seat and the Senate seat cover the exact same constituency, for a pretty similar job. Additionally, either race would be against a non-incumbent. The only reasons I can think of are (a) Castle would genuinely prefer staying in the House even if he could parachute into the Senate (b) His expected competition for the Senate would be so much higher than it's too risky to attempt it.
It is unlikely Castle would win a US Senate Race against Beau Biden.
That Vanity Fair article was interesting - thanks for the link.
But WTF was that Chinese (?) stuff?
I would love to see Peter King run for Clinton's seat. I (unfortunately) live in his district, and there's no way he would win a statewide race, so we'd hopefully be rid of him for good.
I'm not sure why he keeps getting re-elected, but it seems like all the local Dems are afraid to run against him, so he rarely gets a real competitor. This last November they ran a completely inexperienced 25-year-old guy who had no chance.
I think King is interested in vacating his seat because his district is likely to disappear in redistricting now that it looks like Democrats in Albany will control the process.
He's a marked man, looking for his next move.
Arlen Specter's health could likely be a factor.
I know the dems have a strong lead in the house but if R's are having to give up some seats such as Pete King's and Mike Castle's in order to try to recapture some senate seats then that lead is going to get bigger quite possibly.
To that end, there is this guy in the 6th cd in FL should be but probably won't be at risk. In these serious times he asked Nanci Pelosi to reschedule the votes on Friday so as to allow him and the OK and FL house delegations to go to the NCAAF national chmapionship game. If I were this guy's openent I'd run an ad in 2010 mentioning that this guy wants the day off, well voters of FL's CD 6, lets give him some time off to watch football. etc.
Here is some info about his district...
Florida’s Sixth District stretches from the St. Johns River and Jacksonville, sweeping through the Heart of North Central Florida, encompassing portions of Gainesville and Ocala, meandering down to the northern tip of the Orlando metropolitan area, in Lake County.
The district contains over 525,000 registered voters, of whom just over 39% are Democratic, while slightly more than 41% identify as Republican. 80 percent of the District is white, with 9.7 percent identified as black and 3.1 percent Hispanic. George W. Bush received 61% of the vote in this district in 2004.
The district is currently represented by Republican Cliff Stearns. Rep. Stearns was re-elected in 2008 with 61% of the total vote, with Democratic challenger Tim Cunha earning 39%.
I think the Republicans have the following credible targets:
1. Harry Reid
2. Michael Bennett
(3. Blanche Lincoln vs. Mike Huckabee)
(4. Byron Dorgan vs. John Hoeven)
As we said before, many races depend on the decision of single people. We are halfway through this decision phase now but targets 3 and 4 will only become real if exactly Huckabee and Hoeven run.
Democrats have the following credible targets:
1. Jim Bunning
2. George Voinovich
3. Florida-open
4. Arlen Specter
5. Judd Gregg
6. Richard Burr
(7. Jerry Moran vs. Kathleen Sebelius)
(8. David Vitter vs. Mitch Landrieu)
I think that Bunning is more likely to lose than to win. This time he'd lose against Harold Ford Jr. for example. I also think that George Voinovich is slightly more likely to lose than to win. Targets 3 and 4 are pure 50:50. I have a feeling that the PA race will be the Webb vs. Allen, the Coleman vs. Franken of 2010.
I don't think the Illinois seat is in danger, just as the Texas seat is out of reach for Democrats. Harry Reid will have a difficult time, there will be pressure from the left and the right. And some democratic circles will even be happy when he loses.
At the moment it looks like the Democrats might win 2-3 seats, and that number increases by almost 1 if Sebelius decides to run.
For the NY Jr. seat, note that Peter King's interest is also motivated by the fact that he is unlikely to keep his House seat post-2010. If you look at his district, it's completely Gerrymandered to include only Republican strongholds on Long Island (a mostly blue region). After the redistricting by the now Dem controlled state legislature/senate, all of the Republican areas are going to be marginalized within Democrat districts.
Derek, many people in Florida LOVE football. Especially that part of Florida. They probably agree that Congress should have had that day off... watching one's team play for the national championship is just about the most exciting and important thing that can happen. Even the Florida State and Miami fans will understand.
I predict an uneventful 2010 midterm election. here's why:
Theres only going to be 2 open seats, right?
1) Florida i say will stay republican.
2) Kansas is one of the reddest states in the US. It all depends on if sebelius runs. If she does, she has a 50/50 chance of winning making the seat a pure tossup. If she doesnt run the republican candidate will easily win the election with 70+ percent of the vote. Remember Kansas is one of the ONLY states to LOSE a (house)seat in 2008.
Now for so-called vulnerable incumbents.
3) New York, it will be kennedy. She is a Kennedy....the state in question is New York. She also will have been a senator for 2 years by 2010 so "lack of experience" wont be as much of an issue because you cant say someone lacks the experience for a seat they've already HAD for 2 years. Kennedy is re-elected by a 10+ point margin
4) Illinois, burris. People always say Burris lost 5 state-wide elecitons. however these were ALL PRIMARIES..meaning he lost elections to OTHER DEMOCRATS...not republicans. IF he can win the 2010 primary he will win the general election with ease. IF he loses the primary, whoever beat him will beat the republican easy. Ether way, a democrat wins this seat in 2010.
5) Colorado: Bennett will have two years to build up name recognition in the state that is quickly trending blue. He wins re-election by 6+ points.
6) Kentucky: This seat is safe republican. Kentucky is one of the few states trending red and the democratic bench is weaker in this state than almost any other state in the US. Bunning wins re-election by 10+ points
7) Specter: MOST OVER-RATED SEAT EVER. Specter has been in office since 1980, by 2010 he will have has served for 30 years. Once you have served that long you generally have to ether:
A) make an EXTREMELY offensive gaffe. But even THIS might not be enough. In this very state one representative called his constituents racists and still went on to be elected. So in other words "Pennsylvania Sucks" wouldnt even be a bad enough gaffe...he would have to say "pennsylvania sucks and every single resident in this state is a retard and if you vote for me you are a faggot" and he would have to say this while burning the american flag and taking a crap on the PA state flag.
B)he gets convicted of something.
Sorry but THATS what has to happen generally to take a seat from someone who's held it for 30 years.
8) Reid is safe for the exact same reasons as Specter is. Been in office for a very long time...not been convicted, etc. etc.
9) Everybody else: safe unless someone else retires, makes a mind blowing gaffe the likes of which has never been seen, or gets convicted.
Bottom line:
1) not that many pickups at all
2) mid-term elections are almost always good for the party that is NOT in the white house. In this case "good" is keeping seats and not losing them (but not gaining)
3) When you have been in office for a very long time you have to do something illegal (and get convicted) or say something extremely offensive. Hell ted stevens got CONVICTED and almost won re-election....
As a democrat i would like to be optimistic but i just dont see a net of more than 1 pickup....Of course 1 pickup takes us to 60 seats (Franken has this thing won).
Thoughts, comments, questions, complaints, flames, in response are welcome.
@Alex S
Unless Harold Ford Jr has quietly moved to KY, from TN where he ran for Senate in '06, he won't be running against Jim Bunning.
@ Chris1974,
oh my god, you are correct. I was already thinking that there was something that wasn't right because the timeline seemed to be wrong, 2004 and 2006... but I was too lazy to investigate it.
Hi Nate,
I want to make sure you understand an important process with the potential Texas election: it will be an open primary race.
I think in your last rankings you brought up a generic R vs. generic D statistic, but it won't be that way until maybe a runoff clears all the field except for a D and an R.
The 2010 mid-terms have the potential to be just as good for the Democrats as 2006 and 2008 were. With potentially up to a dozen Republican seats being vulnerable, they will likely be spread thin. But all of this, of course, will depend on Obama's performance in his first two years. He would certainly do well to avoid the massive mistakes Bill Clinton made in his first two years, many of which indelibly damaged his governing ability (amongst other things, of course).
But if we are to be looking at the races in the Senate for 2010, I'd say, no matter what, many of them will still be competitive next year. I would not be so quick to count out the race in KY. Right now it's a sleeper, but Jim Bunning is not very popular. I'm not sure why everyone seems to be assuming that KY is moving to the right. Sure it voted strongly for McCain, but statewide, it is still very Democratic. While electing a Democratic governor in 2007, replacing the disgraced Ernie Fletcher, and by coming within 6 pts. of defeating the four-term, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell at the hands of a fairly weak candidate, Bruce Lunsford, the possibility of the Dems taking this one in 2010 is certainly not out of the question. Bunning narrowly escaped loss in 2004, a bad year for Dems in Congressional races, by just 2 pts. in a state Bush won by almost 20. Bunning is known for being quite miserly and refered to his opponent, now-Lt. Gov. Dan Mongiardo, as looking like one of Saddam Hussein's sons and by also refusing to debate him in person, instead preferring to do a satellite debate on KY public television (it looked about as strange as it sounds). Notwithstanding the obastacles Bunning himself faces, Democrats will have to play their cards right and spend quite a bit of cash. But if they do play it right, this could end up bearing a resemblence to the Hagan-Dole race.
The other race that we should definetely not lose sight of is the Senate race in NH, my home state. Last year, fmr. Gov. Jeanne Shaheen won a 6.5 pt. victory over freshman Sen. John Sununu to become NH's first female senator and the first Democrat elected to the Senate from the Granite state since 1975. In 2010, three term incumbent Judd Gregg's seat is up and it will competitive no matter who the candidates on either side are. But I've heard alot of rumors swirling around that Sen. Gregg will demure and not seek another term. Granted, he has somewhat capricously stated the he will run again, but I think this may just be window dressing for him while he mulls over his options. If he does not run, I think Gov. John Lynch will run for the seat. Lynch is a moderate Democrat who has won his last two elections with 70% or more of the vote. His approval ratings are on parity with his percentage of winning in these past two cycles. If the seat is open, he will likely be the favorite and the race would likely be reflexive of the Warner-Gilmore contest in VA, which was, suffice to it to say, no real contest at all. If Gregg does decide to run for another term, the race will be much closer and he would be the slight favorite to win. I doubt Lynch will run in the event of Gregg seeking another term. Most likely either Democratic reps from the state, Carol Shea-Porter or Paul Hodes, would throw their hat in, though I would not expect there to be primary between the two of them. They voted identically on every bill in the 110th Congress and having a very close working relationship.
Anyway, that's my thought for now. I'll keep you up to date with what I hear around here and weigh in some more on the other races when I get around to it.
Regarding the IL seat, I don't care who wins the primary, I was just pointing out that the Dems should allow Burris the seat for now so they can get down to business and then in 2 years, someone else can take the seat away from him in the primary (which shouldn't be hard to do). I don't have an opinion on who that person should (or would) be.
Regarding TX, what does the open primary mean? Does that mean that there is one big primary and anyone can run (including several people from the same party) and then the top 2 vote getters continue on to the general election, regardless of party affiliation? If so, couldn't that mean you have 2 people from the same party running in the general? Please explain. Thanks.
Sorry Nate but I have to disagree with you on your placement of the open Delaware Senate seat as #14 on the list. The only viable Republican candidate in Delaware is Mike Castle who is getting old and has had health problems. There is a giant Democratic bench in this state. The open Delaware Senate seat is a safe Democratic hold.
Alex,
I only caught that because I live in Nashville. If only Ford had decided to run again this cycle, although he probably would have lost to Lamar Alexander who is extremely popular.
Looking at the 2010 US Senate Races.
Republican Seats.
Retirements/Potential Retirements.
1)Alabama(Shelby)-If Shelby runs again-He is safe. If he retires- Tossup if Ron Sparks runs- otherwise Lean Republican hold.
2)Arizona(McCain)-If McCain runs again- He is safe. If he retires, Democrats nominate either Phoenix Mayor Phil Gordon or US Rep Gabby Giffords. Republicans nominate either JD Hayworth or John Schadegg. Dem Pick up if McCain retires.
3)Florida(OPEN-Martinez)- If Alex Sink runs- This turns into the Mark Warner-Jim Gilmore race of 2010. Democratic Pickup.
4)Iowa-(Grassley)-If Grassley runs again- He is safe. If he retires- Democratic Nominee- US Rep Dave Loesback or ex Lt Governor Sally Pederson. Republican Nominee- US Rep Tom Latham or Steve King. Democratic Pick up if Grassley retires.
5)Kansas-(OPEN-Brownback)- Sebelius is the only Democrat that can make the race competitive.(Republican retention).
6)Kentucky-(Bunning)- Bunning is the most vulnerable Republican US Senator up for re-election in 2010. If he runs again he loses. If he retires- The Republican nominee will be Geoff Davis. Democratic Nominee will either by Chandler,Mongiardo,Conway or Luallen. - Democratic Pickup.
7)Missouri-(Bond)- If Bond retires- Democratic Pickup. If he runs again he is vulnerable assuming one of the Carnahan siblings runs. Democratic Pickup if Bond retires.
8)Ohio-(Voinovich)- If Voinovich retires- Democratic Pickup. If he runs again- He is vulnerable to defeat- Lt Governor Lee Fisher,Columbus Mayor Michael Coleman or US Rep Tim Ryan. Dem Pick up if Voinovich retires.
9)Pennsylvania-(Specter)-If Specter retires or loses in the primary- Dem Pick up. If Specter is the GOP nominee- He is vulnerable to either Patrick Murphy or Allyson Schwartz-
10)Texas-(-KBH VACANT)- This will be similar to the 2008 MS Special Election US Senate Race.
11)Utah-(Bennett)- Republican Hold either way.
Democratic Seats- Open Seats/potential open seats.
1)Delaware(OPEN-Kaufman)- Safe Democratic Hold- Democratic Nominee Beau Biden.
2)Illinios(OPEN-Burris)- Safe Democratic if Madigan,Hynes,or Schakowsky get the nomination. Competitive but Democratic hold if Jesse Jackson Jr runs.
3)Maryland(Mikulski)- Safe Democratic either way.
4)New York(Clinton Seat)- Safe Democratic hold. US Senator Andrew Cuomo or Caroline Kennedy.
Vulnerable Republican incumbents up for re-election in 2010.
1)Louisiana(Vitter)- potential Democratic opponents- Lt Governor Mitch Landrieu,ex US Rep Chris John or Don Cazayoux,US Rep Chris Melancon.
2)New Hampshire(Gregg)- The Lincoln Chaffee of 2010. Democratic Pickup if Governor Lynch runs. Tossup if US Rep Paul Hodes or Carol Shea Porter runs.
3)North Carolina- (Burr)- Democratic Pickup- potential Democratic candidates- Attorney General Roy Cooper or US Rep Heath Schuler.
4)Oklahoma-(Coburn)- Tossup if Governor Brad Henry runs otherwise Republican Hold.
5)South Dakota(Thume)- Tossup if Stephanie Herseth runs. otherwise Republican hold.
Vulnerable Democratic incumbents up for re-election in 2010
1)Colorado(Bennett)- Tossup if Republicans nominate AG Suthers. otherwise Democratic hold.
2)Nevada(Reid)- Vulnerable if US REP Dean Heller runs otherwise- Reid is pretty safe.
The appointed US Senators
Micheal Bennett(D-CO) and who ever is appointed to the Clinton NY Senate Seat will win re-election in 2010.
The 2010 Freshman US Senate Class.
1)Beau Biden(D-DE)
2)Alex Sink (D-FL)
3)Lisa Madigan or Dan Hynes(D-IL)
4)Jerry Moran(R-KS)
5)Dan Mongiarodo or Jack Conway(D-KY)
6)Robin Carnahan(D-MO)
7)Roy Cooper or Heath Schuler(D-NC)
8)Lee Fisher or Tim Ryan(D-OH)
9)Patrick Murphy or Allyson Schwartz(D-PA)
2 things,
It is worth remembering that IL had a Republican Senator until 2005, and not to write off the possibility of a GOP win, especially against a black inner-city democrat. In such an environment, the downstate counties that were close for Kerry and Obama will be 80-20 or worse for Kirk, while Kirk will easily crush Burris in the suburbs, especially now that he is linked with Bobby Rush. In fact I have very little doubt that Burris will lose the seat if he is nominee in 2010. That said, I suspect he will lose the primary for the same reason he would lose the general.
2. Texas - No Democrat has won statewide since 1994, and Bill White is the most overhyped candidate since Kay Barnes. In order for a Democrat to win they need to sweep the urban areas, get a major turnout on the border, and hold their losses in the rural areas. White can only do one of those(urban turnout). He will be crushed in the rural areas and will do nothing for border turnout, especially in a runoff. Sharp is better in that he can accomplish two of those(urban turnout, decent rural performance), and at least has a shot.
Most likely though they will split the Anglo vote in the first round and the Democrats will end up with some school teacher with a Hispanic last name as usually happens in these races.
e3323 said...
7) Specter: MOST OVER-RATED SEAT EVER. Specter has been in office since 1980, by 2010 he will have has served for 30 years. Once you have served that long you generally have to ether:
A) make an EXTREMELY offensive gaffe . . .
B)he gets convicted of something.
So, e3323, was Specter guilty of A) or B) when he almost lost to Toomey in 2004?
Maine Student.
Peter Fitzgerald(R-IL) only got elected in 1998 because of the scandals involving Carol Mosely Braun(D-IL). Fitzgerald retired in 2004 because he was going to lose re-election. Burris lost primaries for Governor in 1994,1998,and 2002. He will lose again to either Schakowsky,Madigan or Hynes.
Mike in Maryland-
Specter's narrow victory against Toomey has to do with ideology- He is too liberal for Republicans in the T Area.
That said in the General Election. After getting elected in 1980 during the Reagan Landslide.
He beat Bob Edgar-US Congressman turned from Philidephia Burbs- by a 56-44 percent margin.
He narrowly beat Lynn Yeakel in 1992.(Clarence Thomas Hearings). He got a free pass in 1998. In 2004- He beat Joe Hoefel another Philadephia burbs US Congressman by a 53-42 percent margin.
It will a moderate Philidephia Suburban Congressman with a military background- Patrick Murphy to knock off Specter .
Great thread going here! As I have said in another thread, I am not going to pretend to be an expert on another state's politics, but we can sure generalize.
1. I think Bunning will be a prime target. Dan Mongiardo nearly beat him last time, and he was a throw away candidate. I like the Dole Hagan analogy. A determined, energetic opponent could beat Bunning.
2. Regarding Harry Reid, I worked at the DNC Convention in Denver. When Reid was speaking the audience and delegates were all talking among themselves, paying no attention to him barely at all. A delegate told me his accomplishment lay with legislation, not speaking ability. The opposite of Dennis Kucinich who rocked the hall. But that aside. I am not sure if Reid is all that vulnerable. Yes, he won by only 400 votes to John Ensign in 98. But would NV gain by sending a Senator from the minority party with no seniority? And there's nobody knows who in NV would take him on. Rep. Porter lost. Who else is there? I don't think he is in as much danger as everyone else sees.
3. Michael Bennet. I am in CO, and used to work in Denver Schools, and met him. What an odd choice. He may work out. I do not think people outside this state realize how CO has become blue. People are already saying it will be a tossup. Bet money on Bennet, or the Dem candidate. The GOP bench, next to nothing. John Suthers as AG does not have name recognition or popularity of Salazar. Maybe not Mass. or Hawaii, but blue nonetheless. The liberal base in Denver and Boulder (and the other college towns) is dominating this state.
4. Specter may be in real danger. Yes, he has longevity. But he nearly lost a primary last time. Specter is old and has been ill. Another potential Kay Hagan moment. People might be ripe for someone new.
5. Judd Greg? Imagine how he must feel? His state has been swept away to the blue sea out from underneath him! He may be in some danger, maybe not. Depends on how the country feels toward the GOP in 10.
6. FL? Who knows?
Looking at Republican US Senate Seats- in 2010.
Grassley(IA)-never had a tough race since 1980 when he unseated Chet Culver's father. He has been re-elected in 1986,1992,1998,and 2004 by landslide margin. If he runs again in 2010 and retires in 2016-Expect Chet Culver to win his father's old US Senate Seat.
Specter(PA)-has faced competitive US Senate Races against mediocre opponents in 1980,1986,1992,and 2004. 1998 was the only time he won by a landslide margin. In 2010- He will be facing a very formidable Democratic challenger- Allyson Schwartz or Patrick Murray.
Shelby(AL)-since Shelby switched parties in 1994- He has won re-election in 1998 and 2004 by landslide margins. He is very safe in 2010.
McCain(AZ)- won all his US Senate Races 1986,1992,1998,and 2004 by landslide margins. He is safe in 2010.
Bond(MO)-always had Close races in 1986,1992,1998,and 2004 against mediocre opponents. If he faces either one of the Carnahan siblings(Robin or Russ)-He loses.
Gregg(NH)- never faced a tough race since 1992. He got a free pass in 1998 and 2004 due to lack of Democratic opposition. In 2010 He may face strong Democratic opposition. Lynch will cream Gregg. Hodes or Shea Porter will give Gregg a competitive race.
Bennett(UT)-Safe in a Reddest State.
OPEN-(Brownback-KS)- the last time KS had a competitive US Senate race was in 1996 when Brownback defeated Docking. Sebelius is a stronger candidate than Docking and Moran is more moderate than Brownback- KS Republican Hold.
Bunning(KY)- Dead Duck- elected in 1998 and re-elected in 2004 by a narrow margins. Rick Santorum or Liddy Dole.
Crapo(ID)- Safe as long as he stays away from public restrooms.
Voinovich(OH)- Used to be a popular Governor during the 1990's but thanks to Taft and Ney and Bush- His popularity is at its low. If Tim Ryan runs- Voinovich loses.
Murkowski(AK)-Safe due to lack of top tier Democratic candidates.
Burr(NC)- This seat switched parties ever time since Ervin left in 1974. In 2010 Burr will face top tier Democratic opposition- Heath Schuler or Attorney General Roy Cooper. Since NC is trending blue- Burr becomes a one termer.
DeMint(SC)-Fairly Safe- lack of Democratic opposition.
Coburn(OK)-Competitive if Governor Henry runs.
Thune(SD)- It depends on Herseth-Sandlin who is less likely to run.
Isakson(GA)- Safe- he will get a free pass- He is less republisive than Chambliss.
Vitter(LA)- a Mitch Landrieu vs Vitter matchup will be like the 2002 AR US Senate Race between Mark Pryor vs Tim Hutchinson except LA has been Republican at the State and local level.
OPEN-Martinez(FL)- Easy DEM Pickup if Alex Sink runs. Otherwise Tossup.
Dem Pickups-2010
FL,NC,and KY.
Tossups
OH,NH,MO,and PA.
nkpolitics1279 said...
Specter's narrow victory against Toomey has to do with ideology- He is too liberal for Republicans in the T Area.
That said in the General Election . . . .
nkpolitics,
Do you have a reading comprehension problem?
I said that Specter will have a more difficult time winning the primary than he will have winning the general election. In fact, I give Specter less than a 50% probability of winning the primary, but if he does, he'll probably win the general by a 53-47 margin.
nkpolitics,
If you don't think the primary election counts, just ask Wayne Gilchrest (FORMER representative of Maryland CD-1), or Albert Wynn (FORMER representative of Maryland CD-4) about winning the primary election.
Both had a good record of winning general election after general election by large margins. Gilchrest won 7 consecutive general election races with more than 60% of the votes cast, and Wynn won 8 consecutive general elections with more than 75% of the votes cast.
However, BOTH lost in the primary election in 2008. If they had won the primary, both would have been odds-on to win again in the 2008 general election.
Mike in Maryland the Douchebag.
Go Cheney Yourself.
Do You think Pat Toomey or Andy Harris would have stand a chance unseating Specter in the Republican Primary without the support from Club for Growth.
Regarding Albert Wynn- the Black Joe Lieberman- He narrowly won the primary in 2006 against Donna Edwards. Edwards relied on Moveon.org and Obama's coattails to knock off Wynn.
Going back to Specter- I was mentioning that he can get defeated in the General election with a candidate like Patrick Murphy- an Irish Catholic Military Veteran from The Philidelphia Suburbs.
The recent news of Kit Bond(MO) not seeking re-election is excellent news for Democrats. MO is now a Democratic pick up.
The Democratic Nominee will be either one of the Carnahan siblings- (Robin or Russ).
Republicans are stuck with second tier candidates- Peter Kinder,Todd Akin,Sam Graves.
The Carnahans defeat either of the Republican candidates by a double digit margin.
GOP Sources: Mo. Sen. Bond to announce retirement
Nate, if the seats are listed in order of likelihood of changing parties, and the first seat on the list is described as "the definition of a tossup." then it seems as though you're saying that every seat below Florida is unlikely to change parties - unless one party has a particularly good election night.
Looking at the Republican US Senators up for re-election in 2010 who are in their 70s'
AL-Shelby
AZ-McCain
IA-Grassley
KY-Bunning
MO-Bond-retiring
OH-Voinovich
PA-Specter
UT- Bennett
Republicans will hold on to AL(Shelby)and UT(Bennett)if these seat opens up.
Democrats will pick up AZ,IA,KY,MO,OH,and PA if these seats open up.
Other Republican open seats- FL(Martinez)
KS(Brownback)
Republicans will hold onto KS.
FL is moving to a Democratic pick up since Top Tier GOP candidates Jeb Bush and Charlie Crist are not running or less likely to run. Democratic candidates like Alex Sink,Alan Boyd,or Ron Klien can win FL in the General Election.
Vulnerable Republican incumbents facing re-election or likely to lose.
Burr(NC)
Gregg(NH)
Republicans will get a free pass in
AK(Murkowski)
GA(Isakson)
OK(Coburn)
SC(DeMint)
SD(Thune)
Crapo(ID)is running unopposed.
Democratic US Senators up for re-election in their 70's
Inouye(HI)
Leahy(VT)
Mikulski(MD)
Reid(NV)
Boxer(CA)
All of these US Senators hold committe chairmanships or leadership positions- They will run again and win easily due to lack of GOP opposition.
Democrats will hold onto open Seats in
CO(Salazar)- Bennett
DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman)- Biden
IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris)- Hynes/Schakowsky.
NY(Clinton)- Cuomo/Kennedy
Red State Democratic US Senators get a free pass.
AR(Lincoln)
Red State Democratic US Senators that are always Safe.
IN(Bayh)
ND(Dorgan)
Other perenial vulnerable Democratic US Senators getting a free pass in 2010.
WA(Murray)
WI(Feingold)
Safe Democratic Seats
CT-(Dodd)
OR-(Wyden)
NY-(Schumer)
Now with Bond announcing retirement, it looks the downward GOP spiral is continuing. More GOP open seats. Obviously life sucks being in the minority, and in the Senate with 59 seats (most likely), it isn't reversing soon. We can predict the future, but 2010 isn't looking good for them. Many older GOP senators leaving in droves, others up in states that are trending blue. Honestly could it get any worse for these people. I am sure they are still reeling over the defeats of Dole, Smith, Coleman, Sununu, and Stevens. I guesss get out while the getting is good. The GOP is now the party of the deep south, with some pockets in the midwest and mountain west. Some small pockets that is.
On the Republican Side.- over 70 year old US Senators who are expected to run again.
AL(Shelby)
AZ(McCain)
IA(Grassley)
KY(Bunning)-loses in the General Election.
PA(Specter)-loses in the Primary- DEM Pick up
UT(Bennett)
That said 2010 US Senate Rankings
1)MO(OPEN-Bond-R)
2)FL(OPEN-Martinez-R)
3)KY(Bunning-R))
4)NC(Burr-R)
5)PA(Specter-R)
6)OH(Voinovich-R)
7)NH(Gregg-R)
8)NV(Reid-D)
9)KS(OPEN-Brownback-R)
10)CO(OPEN-Salazar-D)
11)IL(OPEN-Obama/Burris-D)
12)NY(OPEN-Clinton-D)
13)DE(OPEN-Biden/Kaufman-D)
14)TX(OPEN-Hutchison-R)
15)CA(Boxer-D)
16)WI(Feingold-D)
17)WA(Murray-D)
18)AR(Lincoln-D)
19)AK(Murkowski-R)
20)LA(Vitter-R)
21)SD(Thune-R)
22)OK(Coburn-R)
23)SC(DeMint-R)
24)GA(Isakson-R)
25)ND(Dorgan-D)
26)IN(Bayh-D)
27)MD(Mikulski-D)
28)CT(Dodd-D)
29)OR(Wyden-D)
30)AZ(McCain-R)
31)AL(Shelby-R)
32)IA(Grassley-R)
33)UT(Bennett-R)
34)HI(Inouye-D)
35)VT(Leahy)
36)NY(Schumer)-
37)ID(Crapo)-unopposed.
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Nate,
I think you should push Vitter substantially higher on your hit list. Right now Jindal is refusing to endorse him, and LA Repubs are nervous.
I am not happy that Vilsack is in any politicl position of power. It is not only his policies, but his lack of transparency and ethics.
Dixie Burkhart
Facts Don't Matter
www.eloquentbooks.com/FactsDontMatter.htm
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