I'm not going to pretend that I've followed this especially closely; Geraghty and Ambinder offer more informed takes.
I will say that Steele is pretty clearly a fairly talented guy. If you take the nine open-seat Senate races that have been held between the last two political cycles (2006 and 2008), and compare the performance of the Republican candidate against the partisan composition of the state, then Steele is something of an outlier: you'd have expected a generic Republican to get only about 35 percent of the vote in a state like Maryland in a cycle like 2006, but Steele got 44.2 percent.
Now, granted, Ben Cardin wasn't exactly the most inspiring candidate. But for a very conservative Republican to do this well in Maryland (and make no mistake: Steele is very conservative) takes some serious political intangibles.
1.31.2009
Michael Steele's Got Game
@ 5:54 PM
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Steele only did that well because he was deceptive on a level that would make Karl Rove proud. If you watched any of his television ads you would notice that he never seemed to mention that he was a Republican OR what any of his positions were because the need to "clean up the mess in Washington" and other similar sentiments.
He basically ran as a stealth Republican hoping that the sizable number of black voters in the state would essentially be fooled into believing he was a Democrat and he strategy did very well. His ads were also very slick, and saturated the Baltimore market, which Cardin did not feel he needed to contest. End result Steele was able to trick a sizable segment of the urban, poor, uninformed black vote.
His election to head the Republican party only cements their determination to stick with the strategy of steeleing elections ;-)
Steele is not very conservative, he's pro affirmative action, and he pretty much ran as a democrat in 2006,he's a moderate, he's known for being a moderate, Limbaugh is going to hate him.
yes, Steele was able to play the race card to his benefit, especially against his white Jewish opponent. against any other GOP nominee, the Baltimore/PG County black leadership who came out for Steele would have backed Cardin 100%.
He didn't run as very conservative, he ran as a 'Steele Democrat' (http://tinyurl.com/ado38a) and played up the black angle.
Shouldn't Minnesota be left out of the regression model? That race had a strong 3 way split and is under the regression line, so it's pulling it down, but it's not the same situation. Removing MN would push the regression line up some making Steele a little less of an outlier.
The Minnesota data point is from 2006 - Klobuchar v Kennedy - not 2008.
Well, he's against stem cell research. I know that because of his rather imfamous comments to a Jewish group in Maryland that they should understand the horrors of scientists experimenting on unwilling participants.
Marcus said...
Steele is not very conservative, he's pro affirmative action, and he pretty much ran as a democrat in 2006,he's a moderate, he's known for being a moderate, Limbaugh is going to hate him.
Steele is not very conservative???????????????
As Col. Potter on M*A*S*H would say, "Horse hockey."
Ben Cardin is of the Jewish faith. In February, 2006, Steele gave an address to the Jewish Council in suburban Maryland, and made a comparison of embryonic stem cell research to Nazi experiments during the Holocaust.
http://www.gazette.net/stories/021006/montsta130223_31925.shtml
Steele may be a moderate to the Neo-Con RepubliCANTs, but he is no moderate. And if Lush Rimbaugh hates him because 'he is a moderate', it just shows how far to the reactionary right that Rimbaugh is.
So at what point does the hyper-conservative, hyper-religious faction of the GOP just break off and form its own party (ie the Christian Party). From what I've read Steele is rather moderate by wing-nutter standards. Could this choice hasten the inevitable fracture of the GOP coalition? (and we all know its eventually coming).
I'm telling you guys,he's pro affirmative action, he's against the death penalty among other things, he ran as a democrat, he said the letter R(epublican)was like a scarlet letter. He's not very conservative. Limbaugh (and Hannity) are going to hate him.
I live in Baltimore, and I agree that Steele only did well because he was extremely deceptive. Leading up to the election there were numerous mailings in my door about how Steele was at various times praised by dems. He basically pretended to be a dem and hoped no one would notice. I think the fact that he is black helped him to pull the wool over some voters eyes in this respect. Most blacks in politics and in general are dems. Steele plastered his face next to the faces of other dem and black leaders and hoped people would mistake him for being a dem. It didn't work well enough to win the election, but it did win him more votes than one would expect.
As for this debate over whether Steele is conservative...
Steele did try to play down the political party in the race - can you blame him? We haven't elected a Republican Senator since the 1970s and even that Republican was quite moderate. So he played down party and tried to seem moderate. He played up race and tried to appeal to black businesspeople.
But... he's freaking conservative! He is anti-death penalty because he's Catholic (was in seminary to be a priest once), but other than that, he's pretty conservative on every issue. He's one of the worst politicians Maryland has ever produced (with Alan Keyes and Spiro T).
Madeline Beal said...
I live in Baltimore
So do I Madeline, and I remember that campaign.
I also remember the 2002 Boobie Ehrlich/Steele campaign for Governor/Lt. Gov. Boobie made it seem that he was a moderate to liberal, staking that on his 'support for the Bay'. Yes, when he was a Congresscritter he made vocalizations about supporting efforts to clean up the Bay, but that was it - when it came time to support specific programs and/or provide funding to actually clean up the Bay, he always had a reason he couldn't support THAT specific law, but couldn't provide an alternate program/policy.
Steele, as Lt. Gov. of Maryland, was mostly invisible, even when there was discussion about the death penalty. The Ehrlich/Steele administration did not put forth ANY effort to stop the death penalty in Maryland, just Steele making a few speeches stating that he was against stem cell research, abortion and the death penalty.
Boobie and Steele were words, but no action to back up their words.
They might be 'moderates' to the reactionary right, but that's like saying that Mussolini or Franco were moderates, then only comparing them to Hitler.
I don't buy it. I lived in DC during the 2006 race. Steele was the incumbent Lt. Gov, so it's not like Republicans cannot win statewide in Maryland. In 2002, Ehrlich was elected Governor and in 1994, the Republican, Ellen Sauerbrey lost a nail-biter to Parris Glenndening by less than 6k votes.
Steele lost to a lackluster Democrat by a wide margin. His campaign was dishonest, he was cited for fraudulently telling Baltimore voters that he was a Democrat, and he never used his party label in his campaigns. Meanwhile, Ehrlich got 46% of the vote in the Governor's race compared to Steele's 44%.
Getting 44% of the vote in an open-seat race is anything but impressive, especially if you have to lie and cheat to get that level.
The only thing interesting about Steele is his skin color. You might as well run Alan Keyes if that's all that matters.
Do research guys, he's not Blackwell or Dawson, he's not a real conservative, he's not even proud to be a republican, when he became chairman,he didn't even use the word republican. How many republicans are anti death penalty, pro affirmative action and run as democrats, he's a moderate conservative. He's much better than Keyes, Keyes is one of the dumbest people on the planet.
Steele was a moderate when he was trying to run for the senate in MD and he has some moderate views like anti-death penalty.
He is a rabid pro lifer and fiscal conservative but he is not a social crazy that the wingers love. he is practical and will probably try to moderate the GOP views on things if he wants to attract latino`s and a few more black voters.
The Limbaughs will hate him if he promotes working with democrats. As has been said before he refused to say he was a democrat during his Senate campaign and the polls showed a dead heat but in the end MD voted democratic as usual.
No matter what republicans do they will never get more than 10% of the black vote and their anti-immigrant stand will kill them with latino`s. The demographics of the country will put an end to the party except in the deep south sooner or later.
Comparing Steele to a generic Republican is unfair. A generic Republican is an older white man. Steele is neither, and I think that his race could be the variable in why he 'overperformed' in his senate campaign
I live in Maryland. Trust me, Steele is a complete nitwit. His ascendancy to this post is a great gift to the Democrats--though not, I admit, as great as if Katon Dawson (who was second in line!) would have won.
You do a great disservice to the notion of being Political Talented by describing Steele as such. It reminds me of Bill Clinton referring to Karl Rove as "brilliant."
Steele is deceptive and phony. His "serious political intangibles" include his Blagojevichian absence of shame and his ability to tweak his message ever so slightly in order to pander to the audience of the moment.
He said Palin was more qualified than Obama to be President. He mocked the notion of community organizing. He's a creationist. He supported Bush all the way until it became political suicide to do so. Subsequently, he dedicated his life to softening his conservative image. Keyword: Image. He's still a hardcore shape-shifting scumbag of the highest order.
If you've seen any of his numerous appearances on Real Time with Bill Maher, you can attest to Michael Steele's stunning arrogance and stupidity. He's a textbook model of the Dunning-Kruger effect.
Looking at exit polls in Maryland, Steele managed to snag 25% of the black vote (23% of the electorate), which puts him significantly above what a Republican would normally do. If we assume that a Republican normally gets 10% of the black vote, he got a 3.5% advantage from that alone. He's still above the regression, but it's an important factor.
This is off topic, but could you please remove the GIANT PICTURE OF REAGAN THAT IS STARING RIGHT AT ME.
I love your site, but my God, Price is Right for a week than Reagan's bovine gaze, day after day?
It seriously makes me want to turn away when I see your site.
This is especially painful when you remember all the terrific slide shows that used to be a regular part of the campaign coverage. I'm saying you have to return to that, but please do me a favor and obscure my view of the trickle-down tyrant.
Michael Steele's voting record:
* Support stem cell research that involves no embryonic cells. (Oct 2006)
* See embryonic stem cells as lives. (Oct 2006)
* Set up adoptions for unwanted embryos. (Oct 2006)
* Roe v. Wade should remain in place. (Oct 2006)
* More funding for adult stem-cell research, but not embryonic. (Oct 2006)
* Supports Bush's veto of embryonic stem cell research. (Aug 2006)
* Support stem cell research that does not destroy embryos. (Aug 2006)
* Pro-life Republicanism is mainstream of America. (Apr 2006)
* Pro-life, but we have to live with 33 years of reality. (Mar 2006)
Deficit spending mortgages our great grandchildren's future. (Aug 2006)
* Support affirmative action and its improvements. (Oct 2006)
* Affirmative action programs still necessary to close divides. (Aug 2006)
* Marriage is a covenant between a man, a woman and God only. (May 2006)
* We're still discovering affirmative action in corporations. (Apr 2006)
* Led commitment to $70M in grants to minority-owned business. (Apr 2006)
* Affirms marriage is between one man and one woman. (Jan 2006)
* Move struggle to right to own the diner, not just sit in it. (Oct 2005)
Expand minority-owned business opportunities. (May 2006)
* More focus on victims of violent crime. (Oct 2006)
* Mandatory sentencing guidelines for child sex offenders. (Oct 2006)
* Combat the proliferation of gangs. (May 2006)
* Personally opposed to the death penalty. (Mar 2006)
* Use anti-terrorism tools on criminals in our neighborhoods. (Oct 2005)
More enforcement against Drug Trafficking. (Oct 2006)
* Oppose the No Child Left Behind Act. (Oct 2006)
* Standardized tests keep teachers from educating students. (Aug 2006)
* Reinstate college-level grant and loan programs. (Aug 2006)
* Don't trap poor kids in failing schools. (Oct 2005)
* Moratorium on gas taxes until price stabilizes. (Aug 2006)
* Create and sustain real energy independence. (Aug 2006)
* Solar and renewables are the energy sources for the future. (May 2006)
* More biomass, more hybrids, more fuel efficiency. (May 2006)
Revitalize the Chesapeake; focus on open space preservation. (May 2006)
Led trade mission to Ghana and South Africa. (Oct 2006)
* I have to take money in small increments, in current system. (Oct 2006)
* Declines to sign Voters First Pledge for campaign reform. (Sep 2006)
No ban on guns; focus on enforcement instead. (Oct 2006)
* Let businesses avoid burdensome and ineffective system. (Aug 2006)
* Extend sign up period for the Medicare Rx Drug plan. (Aug 2006)
* I don't need government dictating socialized medicine. (Apr 2006)
* Spend more on care and less on bureaucracy. (Oct 2005)
* Rumsfeld wouldn't be my secretary of defense. (Oct 2006)
* Terrorism's tentacles penetrate within US and abroad. (Aug 2006)
* Supports secret biodefense research at Fort Detrick. (Aug 2006)
* More spending on biodefense. (Aug 2006)
* Opposes amnesty for undocumented workers. (Aug 2006)
* Secure our borders immediately; meaningful reform later. (Aug 2006)
* Proud to be a Republican and not running away from the party. (Oct 2006)
* Campaigns are about the man, not just about the issues. (Oct 2006)
* For Cardin to call himself a change agent is laughable. (Oct 2006)
* Cardin was hand-selected by Rep. Steny Hoyer. (Oct 2006)
* Knew difference between having dollars & having values. (Oct 2005)
* Independent-minded bridge between two parties. (Oct 2005)
* Empower people, instead of empowering government. (Oct 2005)
* Studied for priesthood and briefly took vows at a monastery. (Feb 2005)
* Suffered thrown Oreos during Lt. Gov. race. (Feb 2005)
Flexibility for some ownership over retirement choices. (Oct 2006)
* We need a clear strategy, and to pressure Iraq gov't. (Oct 2006)
* Iraq war worth it, to establish beachhead of democracy. (Oct 2006)
* Would still vote for the Iraq war even there were no weapons. (Oct 2006)
* Withdrawal is on the table if Iraqis want a civil war. (Oct 2006)
* Make sure we leave behind in Iraq is an ally. (Oct 2006)
* Yes, I would have authorized the use of force in Iraq. (Oct 2006)
* Israel has the right to defend itself against Hezbollah. (Aug 2006)
* No timetable for Iraq; don't second-guess the president. (Aug 2006)
* No cut and run strategy in Iraq. (Aug 2006)
* Precipitous withdrawal from Iraq is dangerous. (Apr 2006)
* Facilitated faith-based institutions to tap into resources. (Feb 2005)
* Government should have limited control over welfare & family. (Feb 2005)
Graphical Depiction of Michael S nSteele's political Opinions
Steele is extremely conservative. He didn't admit it - except accidentally, like by comparing stem cell research to Naziism - but take half a look at his record and he's extremely conservative.
Nate, I would qualify your point by keeping in mind that Steele significantly underperformed Bob Ehrlich. Now, Ehrlich was the incumbent, but it does take some of the bite out of Steele being some superpol.
Marcus said...
Do research guys
Hey dumba**,
What sources do you want us to go to? Lush Rimbaugh? Bill O'Lielly? Faux News?
Do you live within 150 miles of the state of Maryland?
Living in the same state as Madeline and I do (or right next door, as AxelDC) as the campaigns were run in, and paying attention to what's going on, IS research.
Based on your previous posts, it's obvious that you would be one to call Benito Mussolini a 'moderate' as you would only compare him to Hitler.
You know why Steele says he's anti-death penalty? Because he's Catholic, a very right-wing Catholic, in a state that has a very high Catholic population. And he thought he could use his religion to get those in Maryland who are Catholic to vote for him as a result.
But as Lt. Gov., Steele didn't push that viewpoint AT ALL. There were lots of opportunities for him to put forth his anti-death penalty views while he held elected office, but he didn't push them, except when it was convenient to push them in a political campaign - never when pushing them as an elected official would have made a difference.
If he were a politician in Texas, the differences in the policies he campaigned on and the policies he espoused once in office, would cause many to describe him as 'all hat and no cattle'.
In other words - Steele is a FAKE. A politician who mouths the words to get elected, then failing to push any of those promises after actually getting into office.
Steele underperformed the incumbent Governor Ehrlich's result by 2% (looking at the 2-way results) despite gaining an extra 2% in the total vote (based on exit polls) by outperforming Ehrlich by 10% (25-15) in the Black vote.
I don't know what the party ID vs. GOP vote share plot looks like for incumbent voters with mediocre favorability ratings, but I'd bet Ehrlich may have done just as well on that score as Steele if not better; if you subscribe to the idea that Steele's performance with Black voters largely came through deception on his part, that goes against him I guess, but I think that's totally overstated.
The shear boringness of Ben Cardin should be taken into account as well. I had to fight back sleep watching him talk to a small audience before. The Democratic primary campaign between Cardin and Mfume was pretty surreal since Cardin had the enthusiasm of a sack of bricks and Mfume apparently thought it was beneath him to actually campaign... ever.
FYI, might want to listen to my exclusive interview with Michael Steele and comment. Thanks. JL.
http://www.theamericanview.com/index.php?id=1205
And forget, please, "conservatism," please. It will not “save” us because it has been, operationally, de facto, Godless and therefore irrelevant. Secular conservatism will not defeat secular liberalism because to God both are two atheistic peas-in-a-pod and thus predestined to failure. As Stonewall Jackson's Chief of Staff R.L. Dabney said of such a humanistic belief more than 100 years ago:
"[Secular conservatism] is a party which never conserves anything. Its history has been that it demurs to each aggression of the progressive party, and aims to save its credit by a respectable amount of growling, but always acquiesces at last in the innovation. What was the resisted novelty of yesterday is today .one of the accepted principles of conservatism; it is now conservative only in affecting to resist the next innovation, which will tomorrow be forced upon its timidity and will be succeeded by some third revolution; to be denounced and then adopted in its turn. American conservatism is merely the shadow that follows Radicalism as it moves forward towards perdition. It remains behind it, but never retards it, and always advances near its leader. This pretended salt bath utterly lost its savor: wherewith shall it be salted? Its impotency is not hard, indeed, to explain. It is worthless because it is the conservatism of expediency only, and not of sturdy principle. It intends to risk nothing serious for the sake of the truth."
Our country is collapsing because we have turned our back on God (Psalm 9:17) and refused to kiss His Son (Psalm 2).
John Lofton, Editor, TheAmericanView.com
Recovering Republican
JLof@aol.com
Steele is an excellent choice. He speaks well and can be cutting without resorting to snarkiness. He should wear well. His folksy manner will make an interesting contrast to Obama' style which can verge on frosty hauteur.
Obama had a bad week with his Stimulus Bill being given the back of the hand by the entire Republican Caucus in the House and the story being that the House Bill was deeply flawed, pointing to an absence or failure of leadership by Obama.
Still, the President is showing killer political instincts by talking down the economy and portraying the crisis as the worst since FDR dealt with the Depression. He is doing this so as to instill a sense of panic, so as to foreclose debate and consideration. He hasn’t even gone of TV to defend or at least explain the Bill.
Of course, there is no way of knowing for sure how deep a downturn this will be and how long its duration. Before Obama can wrest the title of having dealt with the worst economic crisis since the 30s from Carter and Reagan, he must first deal with double digit unemployment and a two year downturn that culminated with 20 percent plus interest rates. God help us if this Nation of Whiners has to go through that and worse!
Obama is assured of ultimate victory. He and his party won. He is poised to cement the Democratic majority by co-opting Vermont's Republican Senator and bringing him into his Cabinet, letting Vermont's Democratic governor pick his replacement. This is a cynical attempt to buy another seat in the Senate. In due course the move will be perceived as such.
With Tom Daschle following and magnifying Tim Geithner’s footsteps by having a whopping tax problem of his own, and his having broken his own anti-lobbyist rule several times in less than two week in office, is going to assure that a media hungry in some quarters to prove its independence and improve its ratings, will perhaps be only too happy to rub some of the shine of this new penny.
It won’t take much to reveal this legislation as ill-considered and wrong –headed.
Unless Obama is willing to abandon the pork and the Liberal agenda that is the central ingredient in his stimulus stew in favor of a much more modest infrastructure-only spending bill coupled with incentive tax and rate cuts, his Plan will do little more than blow a hole in the deficit, ruin the dollar and drive up interest rates to the point where the world economy collapses.
That may be the worst case scenario, but it is a real possibility. The Dollar and the US is the word’s currency and Bank There is no substitute at the moment. If the Treasury is forced to float trillions of bonds each year and the world economy is in the toilet and no one has money to buy the bonds, interest rates will sky rocket to draw the money out. Then too, the printing press itself can be employed and the flood of money will drive up prices and interest rates further, assuring further catastrophe. Not just here but throughout the world, the only states reasonably secure being the oil rich states, those owning a commodity that can fetch a price on the open market.
With his discordant railing against "profits" at a time when there are precious few of them to go around, to his VP threatening to throw the CEOs "in the Brig", the Obama administration is sounding more and more like a knock off version of Hugo Chavez regime in Venezuela. So it is not only a penchant for nationalization of private activity that Obama shares with Chavez (along with a mutual disdain for George Bush), he also slips easily into the populist anti-capitalistic rhetoric to accomplish his political goals.
Change we can believe in?
Steele is a "Socialist" compared to the Palin/Rush "heart" of the Republican Party. They will eat his liver while drinking a good Chianti - as soon as they finish eating their babies.
We haven't elected a Republican Senator since the 1970s and even that Republican was quite moderate.
In fact, the last Republican Senator from Maryland was Charles Mathias was not a moderate but a liberal (yes, Virginia, there once were liberal Republicans).
I was in Md often during the campaign. An occasional follower of the race would never know he was a gooper or conservative for that matter. But his blackness was quite up front. He ran a dishonest campaign. If the party line cannot win, then time to change it or party affiliation.
At the end of the day, does Steele being elected RNC chair have any relevance in the bigger picture? The Republican Party has been banished to the hinterlands, and most voters could care less who's heading it. Steele probably will end up being playground monitor for the next 2-4 years as different factions in the party squabble over what direction to go, rather than actually doing anything constructive to rebuild/rebrand. This will get them nowhere.
[o/t] Does anyone else find it hard to focus on Nate's posts with ol' Rawhide grinning out from the sidebar? That photo is unsettlingly mesmerizing. And I'm pretty sure it winked at me a few minutes ago.
And despite being an african american candidate running against a white jew, supporting affirmative action, not mentioning he was a republican and trying to even hide the fact....he only managed to win 25 percent of the african american vote to Cardin's 74 percent.
That just shows how solidly the african americans are behind the democratic party.
I wonder how many african americans were planning on voting for steele, went in the voting booth, saw the R next to his name, and had a change of heart.
Didn't Steele put out fraudulent campaign signs in African-American neighborhoods identifying himself as a Democrat?
Oh wait! I have Google!
http://centerblue.org/2006/09/23/md-sen-republicans-anonymous-steele-campaigns-as-a-democrat/
Yeah, I would say Steele would be something of an outlier on that chart for reasons other than his political acumen.
That the RNC picked an African American to lead the party supported by a majority of traditional southern racists is an original move, to say the least. One imagines good ol' dittoheads struggling to come to grips with it. To that extent, Steele may represent progress, despite his policies. Whatever perplexes and annoys haters like Rush can't be all bad.
Off topic, but I was going through some old bookmarks today and found the prediction page the Washington Post put together, the 2008 Crystal Ball Contest. Looks to me as if Nate was the closest overall - his closest competition was Bill Maher. Take a look for yourself: http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html
'Michael Steele's Got Game ...'
meh - that pretty much sums him up
who cares ??? basically irrelevant - but then he will be a better national party talking head on TV than the DEMs weak PTer, Kaine
note they are from neighboring mid-atlantic states below the Mason-Dixon Line...
but the visuals of Steele bashing Obama is likely to appear off-putting & even more polarizing than if it came from a hard-core southern old white man imho
Blacks are about a third of the population in Maryland. Steele is black. Wingnuts get motivated to vote when they think they can win an election in a blue state -- and Steele's skin color had them thinking they had a shot at this one. So Steele, bouyed by this, overperformed vs a generic.
Why does the confluence of circumstances make Steele "talented"? Is it likely to occur in any election in the future? Or, as I suspect will happen, will increased knowledge about Steele's positions, particularly within the black community as he acts as an apologist and instigator for obstructing Obama's agenda, destroy one of the pillars of his "talent"?
Steele was the beneficiary of PUMA-ism by supporters of Kweisi Mfume in the Democratic primary. After Cardin won the primary, many Mfume supporters, especially in PG and Baltimore City, decided they'd rather have a black wingnut than a white progressive.
I have to say that I am surprised at the discussion over Mr Steele. He is a Republican....He is the RNC chair. He and the RNC are hopeful that as "their Black guy" he can change the face of their party and make it more acceptable to nonwhite voters! They are hoping he will be their "kryptonite" to Obama as the "Man of steel".....that was stolen by the way ;^D. He presents himself as a moderate Republican so he can go home for the holidays and spend time with his Democratic family members!
As I remember it, Steele's commercials in 2006 were quite unique and did not have the traditional "feel" of your standard political ad. There was no gloomy music with bad pictures of your opponent with a script being read by a voice that could do the trailer to a movie. Instead, Steele's ads were much more "light" (not the right word, but its late).
Now, I have no idea how the race itself was actually run, and I have no idea just how conservative Steele is, but can at least a substantial portion of his 2006 performance be a result of an unorthodox ad campaign that turned out to be effective?
ALERT! Look out America!! Republicans may have been hoodwinked and may have elected an Islamic terrorist sleeper agent as RNC Chairman...or at least someone who might be 'palling around' with terrorists! After all, he's black and must have met some Muslims in his life...what if he secretly is one??!!
Someone should check into the claims he changed his name to an American sounding name as a 7 year old after he was secretly planted there by Islamic terrorists who are going to 'activate' him now that he's in charge of the Republican party!!
:) OK...I'm obviously being snide and sarcastic...but hope it makes the point that so many Republicans MISSED during the campaign for President. Do they NOW realize how ignorant and ugly they sounded when they tried to hang those labels on Barack Obama?? Probably not...but felt I had to try to point it out anyway!
who was the fuck-up in The VA senate race? They are as far off the line as Steele is.
So who was the outlier in VA, and can we get more of them to run for office and lose big?
Madom- Madom you are blocking my view.
as I understand it, Steele is now in charge of the GOP, not a legislator. So his 'electability' among the populace at large is irrelevant. Plus he can be 'moderate' for a republican, but that is still 'very conservative' as far as the majority of the population goes.
So a better question is, is he to the right or the left of the current position of the GOP leadership? Looking at his positions and his words (but not in depth - just reading a few recent reports, now he has been picked), I would say that he is not a fanatic, but has been trying hard to give the impression he is more hardline conservative than he really is, probably to head off criticism from the Limbaughs of this world. So *he* probably sees himself as to the left of the current leadership of the GOP, and the right wing commentatos, who appear to believe they lost because they weren't conservative ENOUGH.
Whether he can bring electoral success to the GOP then depends really on whether he is strong enough to pull the rest of them round from heading off to become more extreme, but also on whether he understands that that is what he needs to do. I just don't think they are ready for that yet.
Steele's not that conservative. In a Senate debate, he said that he opposed a constitutional amendment banning abortion, and he then waffled on whether he supported states' rights or letting the courts figure it out. He's pro-affirmative action. Looks like a hippie compared to Ken Blackwell.
He did better than expected in the '06 race because he already had statewide name recognition as Lt. Gov., and Cardin didn't.
I live in Maryland and agree that Steele is not particularly talented and that he tried to downplay being a republican. Remember the puppy ads, ridiculous! Then, there was a last-minute scandal where Ehrlich/Steele (running for gov./sen.) had some campaign materials which implied (falsely of course) that they had been endorsed by the PG County's african american political leaders. Of course, I'm sure most of the GOP'ers voting lsat week didn't make an effort to learn anything about Steele's losing campaign. Steele is smarter than Palin, but the GOP chose him for the same reason they chose her.
But really, does anyone care who is chair of the GOP? Why can't the press focus on more important issues -- like the stimulus bill?
Black men leading both parties. Who would thunk that!
Michael Steele is a douchebag. Like Harold Ford, Steele needed a job, the GOP establishment shit a brick they'd actually pick a chairman who represented the fringe gun totin' rapture right christian fundies, so they picked a so-called "big tent" inclusive black guy to show they were a modern party. The only thing, wouldn't Steele have been more useful as chairman in 2007/08?
Other than that, Steele will have zero influence on the party. He's a total yes man. Howard Dean had to butt heads with the aforemetioned Harold Ford, James Carville and Rahm Emanuel to implement his 50 state strategy. If Hillary had won, Dean would have been punted and the DNC would still be stuck in the 90s mindset of Terry McAuliffe.
The FReeptards seem generally happy, though, to have their own "Magic Negro", albeit utterly delusional as to what this means for their party. Some of the real whackjobs reckon he's a RINO who'll take their guns away.
Here's a handful of comments I found particularly insane:
I like Steele.
Unlike Obama, he got this on the merits.
WTF?!?! Blackwell had to drop out and endorse for Steele to get the chairmanship. Obama had to beat the Clintons and the GOP slime machine to get the presidency.
I think your comment demeans us all, just as I feel President Obama’s election demeaned a great majority of Americans — those who elected or didn't elect the person on the basis of the content of their character.
Here's where these right-wing fruitcakes become utterly hilarious:
I was too. I’ve liked him for a long while. He’s hip, he’s got a good strong moral compass and he likes us [FReeptards]. Just like MLK was one of us. I want the good guys to win.
MLK = GOP
"Our Own First Black!"
I think that most people forget Martin Luther King was a Republican along with many others.
Again, WTF?!?! When did this shit start? What these morons basing this on? MLK was to the left of JFK, and waaaay to the left of LBJ. MLK a socialist on economic and foreign policy issues.
I love Morgan Freeman, Denzil Washington and Will Smith (even if he is a big Obama supporter)... I look at their personalities and their acting skills rather than the color of their skin, and it turns out the color of the skin for some of the better actors today is black. People in Harlem need to get beyond judging us by the color of our skin as well.
Why single out Will Smith? Morgan Freeman has narrated numerous left-leaning documentaries, and Denzel spoke at the Lincoln Memorial concert.
Revise your graph to map GOP vote share against proportion of black vote for GOP candidate and you will have a much clearer regression and explanation.
I can't believe there are actually people, liberal no less, out there posting comments arguing against appointing a Dem in New Hampshire, because it would be percieved as partisan hackery. WTF planet are these people living on?
Thankfully, there are people arguing for appointing a Dem:
Lynch should pick a Democrat. Why do democrats give too much consideration to republicans in political arena?
Lynch should show that he has b*lls and pick a democrat.
Can you imagine a republican governor picking a democrat as senate replacement? No way in million years!
I think this is bullshit how we are all already talking about Lynch being a bipartisan guy and appointing a Republican because Gregg is a Republican. If it were the other way around, and Lynch were a Republican and Gregg were a Democrat, Republicans would be rejoicing about picking up another Senate seat. Lynch has the power to appoint anyone he freaking wants. If Gregg takes the job, he is abandoning his Senate seat. Period. It's not hois choice who fills it.
And we wonder why people see our party as weak.
Not sure what Lynch has to worry about. He is extremely popular in New Hampshire, winning his last election with almost 70% of the vote after winning the previous one with 73.5% of the vote, and is already considered very bipartisan. He doesn't have any particular political need to appoint a Republican.
Appoint Gregg, get another Democrat in the senate? Genius!!! I'm all for it.
Appoint Gregg, get a placeholder Republican in the senate for the next two years? What's the fucking point in appointing Gregg? The guy is a fucking idiot! Appoint someone qualified from a minority, preferably gay or lesbian. It'll at least be seen as bold and get Aravosis off his back. If Obama picks Gregg with with zero upside, he'll have the entire liberal blogosphere on his back. It's bad enough that Michael Bennet, Roland Burris and Kirsten Hillirybrand were appointed.
To read more on the attempted "Steele-ing" of the 2006 MD Senate elections, read "here" and "here"
I have a question. What's the point in keeping Holy Joe in the Democratic caucus, presumably so he doesn't caucus with the scum and vote against the President, if you're gonna appoint a placeholder in New Hampshire whose primary obligation is to caucus and vote with the scum? Am I missing something here?
And what makes people think a wingnut placeholder won't vote with the scum 100% of the time? Like Roland Burris, he or she has nothing to lose. Afterall, they're only a placeholder for a seat that is expected to go to the Democrats in 2010.
I would not underestimate Steele. He represents something more formidable than Rush/Palin.
1) Steele is Black, comes from the wealthiest Black district in the USA (Prince George's County, MD). The GOP has been dogged with criticisms of racism, justifiably, every since the early 20th Century. The decision to nominate him and not Chip Saltzman, who famously sent out CDs with a recording of "Barack the Magic N****" to the entire GOP membership as an XMAS gift, shows the GOP leadership is finally ready to tackle the race issue head on and move away from it's past reputation as a whites-only club.
2) Steele is not Keyes. Keyes is batshit crazy, which is why he has never been elected to anything. And not for lack of trying, either- he's a perennial candidate for federal office in multiple states. While Keyes is so extreme ideologically that he was perfectly willing top abandon his own daughter when she came out as lesbian (something even hyper-neocons like Cheney would not do), Steele is not that far over the edge. There are many positions he holds which reflect the conservative attitude of many African-Americans, particularly older ones that look at the crime rates in their communities and the 'thug culture' of gangsta rap and the crack epidemic with abject horror. This is important because African-Americans are a powerful voting bloc these days, which has historically never voted GOP-even with so many African Americans holding some rather conservative viewpoints. If Steele can convince Black voters that it's okay to be both Black and Republican, this could change the political game in America in a very fundamental way. The GOP used to respond to accusations of racism with a "damn proud of it too" attitude-if that changes to a "look, we're just as Black as you are, and this has nothing to do with race anymore", well, the Democrats would have to stop taking Blacks for granted and the GOP would have to stop demonizing them. That's a good thing. It also means we Democrats will have to work harder to earn votes from this community.
3) Steele held a high state level elected office and managed to come out untarnished by scandal or insinuation. He did this in a very very blue state, where people were definitely looking very closely to find something to smear him with. While other Republicans have fallen victim to their sex drives, greed, willingness to engage in illegal activity to hold on to power, and believing they were more competent than they were, Steele never lost his good name. You can slam him for his political positions, some of which are quite odious-but he never crossed the line into illegal behavior or stood up in front of the press Palin-style and announced that his foreign policy experience consisted of having attended a luncheon with foreign leaders or couldn't remember what the last magazine/newspaper he'd read was. He comes across neither as criminal or idiotic-the two caricatures the GOP has become associated with very strongly as of late.
Now, I profoundly disagree with Steele. I just can't write him off that easily, though. If the GOP had gone along with any of the 'business-as-usual' candidates for RNC Chair, they would have doomed themselves politically. Picking Steele was a very smart decision on their parts.
Black, white, or beige, they're all Dittoheads who want to screw you to give more money to the rich.
A Tax Cut Won't Educate Your Child
Statler N Waldorf posted:
"African-Americans are a powerful voting bloc these days, which has historically never voted GOP"
Most blacks who were able to vote in the pre-FDR era voted for the Republicans. Remember that the Republicans were the party of liberation and the Democrats were the party of slavery and segregation.
PentKent, Obama has condemned bankers who accepted taxpayer funds and proceeded to award themselves $18 billion worth of bonuses. Only a right-wing nutcase would compare that to Chavez. Also, your points might be taken more seriously if you got basic facts correct. Judd Gregg is from New Hampshire, not Vermont. And NH's gov. will likely choose a Republican to replace him, not a Democrat. Please read Nate's previous post.
@Andrew -- you wrote, "So at what point does the hyper-conservative, hyper-religious faction of the GOP just break off and form its own party (ie the Christian Party)."
The answer is that is never does that under the type of electoral rules that we have -- the plurality winner-take-all system. If we had a proportional representation (PR) system of elections to the state or national legislatures, there would likely be more parties that are narrowly based rather than broader coalitions.
Michael,
The number of people that voted in the election FDR ran in that are alive today are kinda small. It's safe to say 'never' when we're this far out, just as it is possible to say that Republicans historically opposed civil rights expansions, since the last major pieces of civil rights expansion legislation they did back were passed 150 years ago.
Neither the GOP nor the Democrats embrace the values they held during the Civil War era. Both parties have changed considerably. The Democrats used to oppose Civil Rights expansions, and now the GOP opposes civil rights expansions. The GOP used to be against corporate excess under Roosevelt-they now embrace corporate excess. Arte the core values of the GOP of Eisenhower's 'don't trust the military-industrial complex' the same GOP that now awards contracts to Blackwater in Iraq? Nope.
They're not the same party, and you cannot claim that Black voters have voted for that set of party values historically.The whole point of my post was about how party values affect Black voters, not about minutiae from the Reconstruction era. I am not here to debate the Teapot Dome Scandal with you, or whether it was right for Grover Cleavland to marry in the White House. The point of my post is not to advocate for Seward's purchase of Alaska or the Louisiana Purchase. I'm here to discuss how Steele's appointment as the head of the RNC will affect Black voters, many fo whom hold conservative values AS HELD BY MODERN CONSERVATIVES and particularly the GOP.
Now, would you care to discuss the contentious election of 1800 while we're looking at the distant past, or are you ready to discuss the present, and possibly even the future?
PeteKent,
I always love to read your posts for their elegant dishonesty. For example, [Obama's] "Plan will do little more than blow a hole in the deficit, ruin the dollar and drive up interest rates to the point where the world economy collapses." Yet you neglect to remember that 7.7 of the 10 trillion debt occurred under Republican Presidents.
Another great lie is your statement that Obama is railing against profits. You just love to lie, don't you PeteKent. The GOP (such as Lush Dimbaugh and Giuliani) are advocating that the luxury spending of the rich should be enough to stimulate the economy. Meanwhile, GOP governors, who have to answer to real people not just right-wing wingnuts, have supported Obama's plan. It is fun watching PeteKent, GOP shill, argue against the few sane people left in the GOP.
Hopefully, your future posts will contain fewer lies PeteKent, but as the saying goes, I'll stop telling the truth about your lies when you stop telling lies about the truth.
Statler, I'm a stickler for historical accuracy, and since the two major parties switched positions on civil rights in the 1960s (though the Democratic switch started happening in the 40s and Republican support, for example by the Senate Minority Leader, C. Everett Dirksen, was important for passage of the 1960s civil rights laws), it's hardly ancient history. I'm asking you to use words like "never" carefully, and while your response is kind of funny, it doesn't change any of the facts that both of us recognize.
I'm ready to discuss whatever I feel like discussing. Right now, I don't have many thoughts about Steele, so I'll leave that to you, with the one factual objection we've both agreed on.
Michael,
Fine, but leave Grover Cleavland out of this.
I will if you promise never to tout Millard Fillmore. :-P
Michael,
I have never been one to Whig out during a political discussion.
Steele is brighter than the average repub, but lets not get carried away, he is dumber than the average black man.
Allow me to add a point of nasty reality, if I may.
The GOP, as presently constituted, consists of many white folks of racist inclination. Doubt me? Look at the margins of McCain's win in the states of the Cotton Belt. Completely out of whack with the rest of the country. These people may keep their mouths shut in public about their personal idiosyncrasies, but I doubt Mr. Steele's elevation to the priesthood will get them jumping out of their seats.
Statler N Waldorf said...
This is important because African-Americans are a powerful voting bloc these days, which has historically never voted GOP-even with so many African Americans holding some rather conservative viewpoints.
Some history for you, Statler:
From the end of the Civil War to the 1920s, those African-Americans who COULD vote voted almost exclusively for the Republican Party. That started to change in the 1920s, especially after the 1927 Great Mississippi floods, and the promises made by Hoover (Secretary of Commerce at the time, and in charge of flood relief) that he later didn't deliver on after he was elected President. It was in 1932 that a significant number of African-Americans started to support the Democratic Party.
Even then, there was major and significant African-American support for the Republican Party. Eisenhower got 39 percent of their vote in 1956. Richard Nixon received 32 percent of the African-American vote in 1960. It was between 1960 and 1964 when the floor dropped out from under the Republicans - in 1964, Goldwater received 6% of the African-American vote. This was partially because of his already known opposition to any extension of civil rights laws, including the Civil Rights Act of 1964. It was also because of the support shown by Hubert Humphrey, starting as early as the 1948 Democratic National Convention speaking up for civil rights, being on the Democratic ticket.
Martin Luther King's father was a registered Republican, and there is some evidence that MLK Jr. also, originally, registered as a Republican.
When Dr. King was being held in the Birmingham jail in 1963, he wrote a letter to Richard Nixon, asking for his assistance. Nixon basically ignored the letter, but President Kennedy responded. This information, when learned by the African-American community, was another factor in causing their shift from supporting the Republican Party to the Democratic Party.
As to those African-Americans who voted Republican at some time in their life, especially before 1964, I don't think a person voting for a Republican in 1960 would necessarily mean that they are now dead. If they are still living, they would be at least 69 right now (born on or before November 8, 1939), but how many people aged 69, 70, or even 80 years old do you know, or know about? There are 25 members of the United States Senate RIGHT NOW who would have been eligible to vote in the 1960 Presidential election (including Roland Burris, born August 3, 1937), and 17 more who would have been old enough to vote in the 1964 election.
Maybe the question with Steele is whether he's anything like his own man or just a creature of corporate/political money interests. On reproductive issues the schism is religious rather than economic, so for purposes of answering the question, one should probably set stem cells, for instance, aside. But if all he can do is repackage high-income talking points, he should find himself the target of more oreos (or tossed cookies in general) in the future.
The disproportionate number of "conservative" or "independent" AA talking heads on TV during the campaign seemed like a Republican strategy rather than a coincidence, given Obama's race. One could see Steele's selection as a continuation of that pattern, though it doesn't seem to have worked for R's so far.
IMHO there's also something fishy about the tendency of conservative media spokespersons to be attractive younger women. Feminists might care to make more of that, but I'd let Sarah Palin speak for herself. It's more damaging that way. I see a PhD dissertation there somewhere, though.
In general, the republican message would seem to be "Please don't think of us as rich old racist white guys."
The VA number is clearly from the 08 race (Warner trounced Gilmore) and not the 06 Webb v. Allen race, which was decided by ~8K votes.
He may be popular but can he raise money? Or build infrastructure?
To Porridgegun,
We are of like minds.
To all the bloggers on here that think STEELE IS NOT A CONSERVATIVE!!!???
Think again!!!
He ran a deceptive campaign to get elected. If you have ever heard him speak at length he, is nothing more than a yes man for the Repubs.
He and HANNITY are admittedly friends, that says enough!!
Also, if you heard his interview this morn on FAUX NEWS, that should clear up any doubt as to whether he is VERY CONSERVATIVE, or not!!
so is it the consensus that Michael atempted to 'steale' his senate campaign & almost pulled off the crime ?
apparently this time with the benefit of 6 ballots & attrition, his stealth strategy triumphed - but really who in their 'right' mind wants the job at the RNC ?
I mean, the DEMS are so cocky that they promoted a second stringer to be DNC party head who will run it as a part time hobby for the next year...
If I was Steele, I would run hard on that issue that the DEMs are smug & full of themselves [which is true]
MN Senate Litigation Recap, Week 1
@jonathan- Thanks- Is Gilmore a serious screw-up or is Warner particularly good?
After looking into this further I find a number of flaws in this chart.
First of all you go by "Dem partisan Id Advantage" this gives TN D+5 by your chart and logic. However i dont care if EVERYONE in TN is registered as a democrat...they're not VOTING for democrats.
The COOK PARTISAN VOTING INDEX is the way to judge. It gives TN R+3 which sounds about right.
Now on to this Maryland senate race.
Steele lost the open senate race by a 10 point margin. The Cook Partisan Voting Index lists Maryland as D+10 and it just so happens seele lost by exactly that,... 10 points (44.2 to 54.2). So going by my model (the Cook PVI) steele did EXACTLY as good (or bad) as a generic republican would have.
One could argue that since 2006 was a landslide year for dems that every democratic candidate should have outperformed the status quo. By this logic steele only did marginally better than a generic republican would have...but its not really noteworthy at all and certainly not noteworthy enough to make a post on here about it 2 years after the fact.
I could understand it being a big deal had he WON or at LEAST came close....but since he lost by a 10 point margin this was NOT a close race by ANY stretch of the imagination. In fact you can barely even call it a competitive race.
Theres plenty of democratic senators who are in R+10 or worse states....Conrad and Dorgan from North dakota (R+13) Tim Johnson from South Dakota (R+11). Also Maine is strongly republican but has 2 republican senators. So i dont really see how a republican losing by "only" 10 points in a D+10 in an open senate race is a big deal.
He seems very conservative, although there may be a few curveballs in there.
I will say that from just a very basic level, he comes across as pretty likeable and charismatic.
Although am I the only one who sometimes thinks "Jackie Childs" from Seinfeld?
Sorry, it's hard for me to take Michael Steele seriously. He was a senior when I was a freshman at Hopkins. I mostly remember him as "Professor Harold Hill" from the JHU student production of "The Music Man". Such a very earnest young man, a politician even then. Student government, Young Trustee, the works. Painful to watch.
Steele is not conservative to mainstream observers, but to a socialist like Nate, he is extreme right wing.
Ichabod said...
Steele is not conservative to mainstream observers, but to a socialist like Nate, he is extreme right wing.
And you probably think that Mussolini was a rabid Socialist? Only when comparing him to Hitler by most people's standards could Mussolini be considered even a moderate Fascist, which in almost anyone's book still means he was extreme right wing.
So, Ichabod, do you live in or near Maryland, having had the opportunity to see and hear the charlatan Steele in action over a period of several years? For example, his vocal support of the Bay, but when it came time to put rubber on the road, there was nothing but excuses about why this program wouldn't work, or that approach was wrong, but not putting forth any program that would help the Bay? Anything proposed was 'harmful to business', or 'costs too much', or 'results are not guaranteed', etc., etc., etc., etc.?
I seriously doubt you know anything about Steele, or if you do, you're a rabid GOOPer whose only sources of news are Lush Rimbaugh, Bill O'Lielly and Faux News.
Nate Silver is never going to become a respected political analyst. To claim Steele is "very conservative" is like calling Obama white.
I'd figure Silver would be able to pick up a little more detail about politics than he has, but at this point if Silver had a political PECOTA card, I'd say he has well over a full season's PAs under his belt and he is a one trick pony. Stats without analysis.
You can't steal 1st.
You might as well run along Nate, find another hobby. Or go back and focus your business concept on what you are actually good at, not what you think you are good at.
http://centerblue.org/2006/09/23/md-sen-republicans-anonymous-steele-campaigns-as-a-democrat/
who was the fuck-up in The VA senate race? They are as far off the line as Steele is.
So who was the outlier in VA, and can we get more of them to run for office and lose big?
The Democrats ran one of the best governors in recent history, Mark Warner, while the Republicans put up one of the worst, Jim Gilmore. It also didn't hurt that some people thought that Warner was the incumbent because the previous Senator was also named Warner (John).
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