Such is the case I make in a new feature at Esquire:
If Bill Clinton was the first black president, then Barack Obama might be the first urban one. He is the only American president in recent history to seem unembarrassed about claiming a personal residence in a major American city. Instead, presidents have tended to hail from homes called ranches or groves or manors or plantations, in places called Kennebunkport or Santa Barbara or Oyster Bay or Northampton.The full article is here.
65 comments
Nate, this plays into your quant analysis strengths and you do a nice job here.
But the other thing to consider is that Obama is also essentially the first Gen X president as well (although ahead of the curve by a couple of years in strict age terms).
If you haven't read "Generations" by Strauss and Howe, you might want to. It's an interesting take on a generation pattern in American history, one that seems to be playing out in recent history. Which, if you read their work, is not a comforting thought at all.
Link for the book...
http://www.amazon.com/Generations-History-Americas-Future-1584/dp/0688119123
America, and in fact the entire world, is becoming increasingly urbanized. The recent oil shock and the potential for another one (should Saudi Arabia decide they want to spank us again) combined with the foreclosure crisis brought the idea of moving away from the exurbs and back toward the urban core to the forefront.
Concerns about global warming and an increased desire for a sense of community, walkable neighborhoods and the like as well as the decline of the sentiments that drove 'white flight' in the 70's indicate a return to urban living.
President Obama's more intimate knowledge of urban issues is only fitting therefore. To quote Colin Powell, "It's not small town values, all towns have values"
One more thing, about big picture sociopolitical views of America
This is now probably badly in need of an update, since it's over 25 years old:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nine_Nations_of_North_America
But the original book is fascinating reading. What struck me most is that your voting analysis uncovered what might be a flaw in the overall scheme and that there is a separate Nation, Appalachia, that corresponds to the infamous red streak where McCain increased on Bush's vote totals in the last election.
What I'd love to do is look at the detailed voting totals that we have and see if they validate the boundaries, especially the intrastate boundaries, identified by Garreau.
Sorry, that's been on my mind for a while as I've read your site and these seemed a nice quiet time to post it
Actually, McCain is much more "urban" than most prior presidents too- he lives in Crystal City (a very city-like inner suburb of DC) and a couple of his houses are in downtown Phoenix. Not that it affected his policies much....
Ironically, BOTH Vice Presidential candidates are at the opposite extreme - not only is Palin from Wasilla, but Biden lives in a four acre lot in exurban Wilmington, but nary a sidewalk in sight. He may take Amtrak, but he has to drive to get to the station!
Mark Blumenthal of Pollster.com summarizes a very interesting set of statistical analyses from "insiders" to the Democratic (Obama) campaign here. Among other interesting things it makes a strong case for the impact of the ground game -- that is to say, the individualized game.
These presentations don't contradict your explanation but it's important to keep in mind that there are many candidates for the "critical factor" that differentiated 2008 from earlier elections.
To me, that chart doesn't show much... 2004 is wacky, but if you compare 2008 to 2000, you'll see that Obama increased Gore's margin about equally in all three categories.
Granted, it's easier to go from 45 to 55 then it is to go from 75 to 85, but it's also hard to go from 35 to 45 (in both of the latter cases, there are less swing voters to convince).
To me, while the amount of support Obama has in cities in certainly impressive, but not much more then the dramatic increase in democratic vote outside of cities and suburbs. While he is worse compared to Clinton, Clinton was a weird democrat.
And he halved Bush's 2000 margin.
Good article Nate, although from the outset I had thought you were going to be refuting the idea that Obama is an urban president in some way.
Something I think you should change is that your charts look pretty horrible, the text is unreadable and the black/neon style also adds to the fuzziness.
In the long view, this is just more evidence we're in the Industrial Revolution. Whether we're approaching a new Revolution or not remains to be seen, but the odds that Obama himself is a sign of that coming revolution doesn't seem to be the case.
I'd love to see that chart adjusted like some of the state-by-state ones in the election history, to take into account the overall vote. Might be easier to pick out less obvious trends like 'urban people vote Democrat, rural people vote Republican, suburban people are closer to the overall vote'.
The biggest question or comment I have is that there are so many ways to cut the urban/suburban/rural pie, and I don't know how accurate any of them are. What definition was used for this?
I suppose that a definition of "Population over 100,000 and not in proximity to a larger city" would be a good definition of urban, but then you get into questions such as "Is Tacoma an urban area, or is it a suburb of Seattle"?
There is also an issue of what "rural" connotes. IIRC, the percentage of Americans involved directly in farming is like 1 or 2%---even if you add natural resource recovery to that (logging, mining), that is still a small amount of people. I have lived in Montana, and even though Montana is very rural, most of the people there are going to be employed in the same way that people in an urban area are, mostly in retail or service. So rural people don't really have that different of interests than urban people, just different affectations.
Flawless writing, Nate.
JFK was from Boston.
Keep in mind that George H. W. Bush claimed a hotel room in Houston as his residence, and that Kennebunkport was a second, vacation home. Of course that was all just a tax dodge so ...
if im not mistaken, you've had this post up at esquire for over a week now. Why the link now? And besides, i don't think 'urban prez' is the right characterization. Yeah, he's definitely cosmopolitan and no previous president was, but a more acurate description is 'gen X'. Which is more community-oriented (facebook, myspace, etc...) Embracing of technology, diversity and to a certain extent immune to social issues (civil rights- gay and such- perhaps being the difference). Not as confrontational but more concerned about getting their shit together...i guess
Marc, Although JFK was from Boston, he wasn't exactly from downtown Boston, and there are those who would claimn Brookline (where the Kennedy compound is) is not actually Boston.
I think this analysis is quite interesting, and maybe it shows a level of why the Democrats have failed to be too succesful in recent presidential campaigns. They haven't embraced what they really are- a party of cities. The GOP has become increasingly a party of rural areas, and have not been ashamed of showing that, throw support for guns etc, there is no reason for the Democratic Party to come out for workers rights or find some other way of emphasising there urban roots.
But the other thing to consider is that Obama is also essentially the first Gen X president as well (although ahead of the curve by a couple of years in strict age terms).
IMO, not enough is made of this. Fuck "The Greatest Generation" and the Baby Boomers. Gen X & Y FTW!!!
Unless of course we're talking about Mooseburger and Jingle. Their social views and overall mindset is stuck in the Dark Ages.
More evidence all around that in 2008 a great many more of the voters who had no problem with Obama voted. Whatever else is true about what happened nationally on November 4th, the ideas that Hispanics won't vote for any African-American candidate and that whites who typically don't vote or vote sporadically will turn out to vote against any African-American candidate were shown to be false.
Dan—
With regard to The Nine Nations of North America and Appalachia, you'll find a number of interesting things in the Dixie chapter, but I particularly like this one:
The phenomenon—being Future-Shocked or the threat of being so—is, in the 1980s, what ties the South together.
That tie no longer binds.
I've also got to stick up for JFK as an urban president. Nevertheless, Nate's point is still valid. He's not just saying that Obama is from a metropolitan area, but also that his votes came predominantly from city dwellers, because demographically America's population is becoming more urban.
And just to quibble about details for a sec... markymark, the Kennedy compound is in Hyannisport down on the Cape-- but JFK spent his childhood in Brookline. I don't personally know of anyone who would argue that Brookline isn't Boston. Hell, you can walk to Beacon Hill.
Nixon ran from his apartment on Fifth Avenue - he'd long since left his semi-rural roots way, way behind him.
Winning a slightly larger share of the urban vote than one's Democratic predecessors would only be the key to a candidate's victory if the urban votes, themselves, comprised a larger (or indeed even equal) percentage of the total electorate, which they manifestly do not. The key to Barack Obama's victory (like those of Bill Clinton) is that he was able to persuade the suburbs to vote Democratic, despite all of the structural disadvantages that Democrats automatically face there.
He has a suburban feel to him though....It's not like he's from Brooklyn! :)
I think there is some confusion when you talk about an Urban president. You have to ask if you are talking about where they grew up, where they wanted to live, or where they lived when running (since running means constant travel, not even sure what that means). Since many candidates were Governors, many lived in the city where the State Government was, but that does not make them Urban per se. The point with Obama is that he cut his teeth on Urban politics in Chicago's inner city.
Republicans in modern times are trying to play down their elite-fat-cat image and so pretend to be rural (regular folks) even if that is just a vacation home or even just fiction. Democrats tend to pretend to be more urban to appeal to Labor, even if they are really small town.
Nate, I thought that was a great article.
markymark:
What makes workers' rights specifically an urban issue? Rural folks work, too, and need rights.
lewyn:
Wilmington is about 25 miles from Philadelphia, isn't it? So even if Biden has to park and ride, I find it hard to imagine his residence in any part of Wilmington is exurban, rather than suburban. Lots of suburbanites live too far from their local commuter train stop to walk to it.
I think of exurbs as being more like the panhandle of West Virginia in relation to DC, or Orange County, NY or Northeastern Pennsylvania in relation to New York City. The drive should be over an hour and a half at least, I would think.
jampacked said...
"Something I think you should change is that your charts look pretty horrible, the text is unreadable and the black/neon style also adds to the fuzziness."
I agree, but your chart is imho worse than pretty horrible...
besides the graphics being visullay muddled beyond redemption, there is the matter of relative perspective [both factually & visually]
what does the margin millions convey ? almost nothing since we are supplied no bar to judge by such as the total quantity of the sub-set.
either show the margin as a ratio or percentage difference for the 'winning' side OR give us the actaul vote totals of each year so we can comapre the relative importance of each sub-set & margin in that sub-set
better would to to show the whole vote in each year across the axis so we can visually see the relative sizes of rural/sub/urban voting blocs in each year
plus we can compare the /margin' in each subset against other years to determine instantly the relative importance to the election result
oh, and exactly how does this chart clearly state the impact on the election result ???
plus did 1996 really end up with 'rural' voters equally split ???
way too many flaws with this chart - FAIL [sorry]
I found this headline hilarious, if only because my brother and I were joking about how ad agencies have basically rebranded African-Americans as "urban", and we thought we weren't too far away from seeing Obama called the first Urban president.
ANTHONY
too true
in both music & hollywood & in all the creative arts, 'urban' has been the moniker of choice within the industry for projects perceived as skewing black/'AA' for at least 10 years
maybe Nate is going all Hollywood on us...
I highly doubt this is referring to Northampton, Pennsylvania...
My suburban county went to Barack by over a 10 percent margin! (Although we do have a few densely populated areas, it's nothing metropolitan).
I predict that Nate will do an analysis of sports/hobbies with: Obama=roundball [urban]
and how about:
Jr Bushie = baseball
Clinton = jogging [to McDonalds]
Reagan = 20 mule team pulling [obscure reference, granted]
Bush Sr = tennis at the CC ?
Carter = boiled peanuts, building homes ???
Ford = football [and skiing]
Nixon = paranoia, scrapbooking [enemies list]
endless fun for all...
One factor that, in 2004, I argued won Bush reelection was the problem of identity construction in suburban life.
In both urban and rural settings, basically everyone comes into daily contact with a decent cross-section of the people who make up "their community" on a regular basis. You can't walk/ride/drive around a city without seeing people of all income levels, ethnic backgrounds, etc., any more than you can go around a small town and see a representative slice of the place.
In suburbia, on the other hand, one can live in a bubble as insulated as one likes from anyone you don't want to consider "one of us". And in 2004, people from the suburbs voted pretty solidly Republican, because that was much closer to the identity construction most of them had made.
Now what has changed? Did the reports of people suddenly beginning to take public transportation really mean that the WASP/WASC identity in the suburbs is being undermined?
Well, Obama steps into the roll on Tuesday… is there light at the end of the tunnel? Will this be not only a historical event in our history but a time to make promises of a candidacy actually come true? Please let me know your thoughts..
http://o8justiceforall.wordpress.com/2009/01/16/
Nate, your analysis is quite persuasive, however your last thought stirs me to remark that the GOP has already established its "shining city on a hill"--it shines because it is ringed with steel walls, and above every gate there is a placard spelling out who isn't allowed inside.
Granted, your reference may have been tongue in cheek, but as long the GOP still clings to such silly metaphors (and this is perhaps the silliest) it will continue to drift further and further from political relevance. The people to whom that sort of frothy crap appeals are dying off. The young and most ethnic groups aren't interested in scenes from a Ronald Reagan movie: they are faced with real economic and social problems that the "shining city" fairy tale doesn't even acknowledge, let alone attempt to deal with.
wv: reglycel, recycling for dyslexics
Pete said: Although we do have a few densely populated areas, it's nothing metropolitan.
Here in Los Angeles we too have densely populated areas--they're called "Republican enclaves".
:o)))))))
PRAG
pithy comment & pragmatic indeed...
After following 538 for the past 8 months or so, I assumed that Nate was being sarcastic about the shiny city in his last line of the article
but you are correct that it is not an obvious knock or 'touche' so the sarcastic reference will go right over the head of a casual reader
I have seen the shiny city & those walls are intended to keep out the likes of me...
WV - 'suren'....sure'n' if ya believe that, I got a bridge to nowhere fer sail cheap
It will be so refreshing to have a president who has had next door neighbor, with "next door" meaning within 120 ft. That's what urban is.
The proportion of the electorate that is suburban is interesting. Obama won his senate seat by winning suburban votes, IIRC.
I agree it is refreshing to have a competent pres. That said Obama essentially ran unopposed for his senate seat, as his opponent dropped out and was replaced by Alan Keyes, who was from MD and did not play well in IL.
wow - another longshot came in for the AZ Cardinals !!!
[they played like McCain needed to...]
how looooooong were the odds pre-season that they would get to the Super Bowl with ol' Kurt Warner this year ???
congrats to them for winning & finally giving us a real exciting game - at least in the 4th quarter...
Coleman's Futile Election Contest
Ronald Reagan was actually from Los Angeles (specifically the neighborhood known as Pacific Palisades -- and my neighbor) when he became President. He had a ranch in Santa Barbara, but that wasn't his official residence. So we now have 2 urbanites -- JFK and Reagan -- in the 44 years before Obama. Oh well, it sounded great.
Maybe I'm dumb or something, but I haven't yet gotten past, "If Bill Clinton was the first black president..."
Black as in budget? I can't think of what else you'd mean.
Bill Clinton is commonly referred to as the first black President.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bill_Clinton#Popularity_among_African-Americans
Toni Morrison is credited with being first to call Clinton the "first black president" in the following article:
"Clinton as the first black president," New Yorker, October 1998
And here is the relevant passage:
"African-American men seemed to understand it right away. Years ago, in the middle of the Whitewater investigation, one heard the first murmurs: white skin notwithstanding, this is our first black President. Blacker than any actual black person who could ever be elected in our children's lifetime. After all, Clinton displays almost every trope of blackness: single-parent household, born poor, working-class, saxophone-playing, McDonald's-and-junk-food-loving boy from Arkansas."
In the article, you wrote, "among the twenty largest metropolitan areas in 2000, nineteen had added population by 2007."
Let met guess the exception--metro Detroit.
BTW, I second Dan's recommendations of both Generations and The Nine Nations of North America. Great books, if unconventional in their interpretations of history and geography.
Well, Clinton did alot for the AA community, and had he not put his foot in his mouth during this last election cycle, I'd say his reputation would have been pretty solid for many years to come.
I think Obama will do much for urban communities, black or white, that have been ignored by every administration since Johnson. We've been getting high on the 'good ole boy' bullshit for a little too long, assuming that people from the back woods somehow had this 'country wisdom' that made them better than inner city people. By the time 2000 rolled around, it appears that American politics wasn't about who was more qualified but who could better affect a southern drawl and talk more convincingly about pick-up trucks and chewing tobacco.
There's this old movie called A Face in the Crowd about a guy that acquires an intense amount of political power by playing on those back woods themes-anti-intellectualism, hoky maxims, Biblical quotations, country music, bigotry and distrust of modernism. The lead character bears such a shocking resemblance to an amalgam of Bush and Rove that it was almost painful to watch back in 2004.
Maybe it took Bush's fucking everything up as badly as he did and the fear of Sarah Palin to shock us out of the stupor we instinctively fall into when somebody lays that redneck schtick on us. I'm not saying that everyone from the countryside is an idiot-I'm just saying that being from the back woods does not make you a genius, and we've been acting like it does for entirely too long.
hopefully we are finally beyond the "who would you rather have a beer with" paradigm for election of POTUS - but it is probably still in effect for congress & state & even more so for local races I fear
Statler said: "Well, Clinton did a lot for the AA community, and had he not put his foot in his mouth during this last election cycle...."
You've got the wrong election cycle and the wrong thing being put in the wrong mouth -- if he hadn't done that, Gore would have won going away in 2000....
For what it's worth, many will be surprised to realize that the last president to even have an "Urban Agenda" was Richard Nixon!
Reagan/Bushes hostility to urban areas is at least understandable (if reprehensible). But neither Carter or Clinton had anything in place.
Oh shit, my hometown got a shout out on 538!! Northampton/Coolidge FTW
Kket,
Man, get over it. It was a fucking blowjob. Like you've never had one.
Statler, the thing is, I believe Kket is right. But I also believe that if Gore hadn't tried to run away from Clinton and had campaign with him throughout the country, he would have earned a substantial and theft-proof win. There are quite a few things that could have gained him a theft-proof win, including being more than an awful campaigner. But the "what ifs" didn't happen.
@Dan The 10 nations may be a bit outdated, but the Beyond Red and Blue map has an interesting alternative breakdown of regions in the US.
Pete, Nate's talking about Northampton, Massachusetts... home of Calvin Coolidge.
Great stuff, Nate, although I'd like to echo the comment that it'd be interesting to see the definition of rural, suburban, and urban--maybe even a map that one could zoom in on if it's not too much work?
Also, I'd love to see a chart of states from the densest to least and vote margins. Winning the 17 densest states is a very interesting stat. Is NM the least dense state he carried? Thanks!
Well-written piece. Relevantly, as many nationally influential voices have repeatedly noted, Obama is part of Generation Jones, born 1954-1965, between the Boomers and Generation X. Google Generation Jones, and you'll see it’s gotten a lot of media attention, and many top commentators from many top publications and networks (New York Times, Time magazine, NBC, Newsweek, ABC, etc.) are specifically referring to Obama, born in 1961, as part of Generation Jones.
Teddy Roosevelt may have lived at Sagamore Hill in the summer, but he was born and raided in Manhattan. If the article means Obama's "urban" in teh sense of "poor urban," that's not really right either. He was raised around the world, and the biggest city he came from is Honolulu. When he moved to Chicago, he got a job a a big law firm, so that's not exactly "poor urban," either. Michelle Obama might meet the description, but not the pres-elect.
Silent Cal:
The biggest city Obama lived in was neither Honolulu nor Chicago, but Jakarta.
Nate, do readers a new service, please, and email subscribers when your Esquire features post? Thanks.
(What else you got going on out there?)
If Bill Clinton was the first black president, Barack Obama is the first Stuff White People Like president.
Nate -- You're great with the numbers but damn, you need an editor.
[as posted on the next thread re: Obama's 'approval' ratings]
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this style of chart [comparing POTUS approval ratings] is more the type that would have been better suited for trying to convey the RURAL/SUB/URBAN voting shares
except rather than using %s on the axis, it would be better to use millions of votes so we could see at a glance how the size of the demos of RURAL/SUB/URBAN shares of the electorate have shifted over the years
plus, another failure of this current chart above which attempting to compare RURAL/SUB/URBAN vote is that the amount of 3rd party votes was left out of the display - and it does make a difference
I would presume that in 2000 Nader drew mostly down in the URBAN & maybe SUB demos for instance, but...
for CLINTON in 92 & 96, where did PEROT have the most impact on the margins - which is part of the equation for how CLINTON was able to secure the victory
Nate showed us only the derived margin of victory in millions of votes each category comparing only GOP vs DEM - but that left out valuable data that could have been easily displayed with better graphics & also convey more usefull info imho
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