UPDATE (4:25 PM): The Republican alternative bill (no spending, tax cuts only) was defeated 170-266 with extremely partisan voting patterns ... just 2 Democrats voted for the GOP version while 9 Republicans voted against their own version.
___
Just as a quick FYI: There's some modestly interesting viewing on C-SPAN right now as the House debates amendments to the stimulus bill; a vote on the entire package is expected early this evening. The most interesting amendment is probably one introduced by New York's Jerry Nadler to add $3 billion in mass transit funding to the bill. The amendment was adopted earlier this afternoon by voice vote.
My prediction: the overall stimulus package will pass by a margin of about 250-183, with 10-15 Republicans breaking ranks to vote for the bill and 15-20 Democrats voting against it.
1.28.2009
BAM! POP! POW! House Debates Stimulus Bill
@ 3:10 PM
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52 comments
Would love to see your congressional cartogram lit up by votes.
Thanks.
Why will more dems vote against a hugely popular bill supported by a hugely popular President? Seems odd. I understand the pull for even Republicans to vote for this, but that pull should have more gravity with Dems.
@sarasotajoe
Probably because there are more Dems in the House to begin with. Proportionally, Nate's prediction is about the same for each party breaking ranks.
Ooh, are we placing wagers? Okay, then. I say... 3 Dems vote against it, and 9 Republicans vote for it. Near party-line vote.
Nate, for the love of God, please release your PECOTAs!
BK,
I wouldn't bet money on that.
I can't get the Electoral History charts to show up on any of a multitude of different browsers and computers. Anybody else having the same problem?
I'd love to see huge spending on mass transit (the country really needs it), but unfortunately I think it's hard to argue that that would be good stimulus. Most of these projects take years before anything actually happens because of the need for detailed planning.
Gottlob - yeah, same here. That reminds me...
You know what would be interesting? Some posts recapping the 2008 election. For instance, how did the pollsters do? How did 538's own pollster ratings and regrssion analysis do? And how's about updating those history charts?
btmorex - as with the bridge-and-highway type, there are plenty of projects that have already gone through the planning stages and have been shelved for lack of local or federal funds.
chachy i second that. i think some pollsters and poll analysts chose to be all over the place on purpose so that whatever the results, they'd get some credit, or they wouldn't be discredited.
.
i think about 5 dems will vote against and about 7 repubs will vote for. why? well eric cantor went to rush this morning and agreed with him that the bill should be called 'pork-ulus', supposedly (according to politico44). when rush's taking such a beating even by that georgia(!!!)republican congressman, if the leaders are actively seeking him out and saying that 'obama wants to take cover under republicans while giving nothing back', then expect a highly box-like ideological split.
@Lupercal - fyi, the GA congressman you refer to has seen the heresy in his statements, and has chosen genuflection rather than house torching by mobs of Dittoheads.
http://gingrey.house.gov/News/DocumentSingle.aspx?DocumentID=109616
wv: lende - the banks won't even finish the word these days...
Chachy, go to Pollster.com for that stuff. They have it all, including an assessment of 538's prediction compared to RCP and theirs.
I think Nate has moved on from that.
btmorex
For example, there is an expansion of the Metro System being worked right now in Northern Virginia.
There will be a new line, the Silver Line, which would connect the Metro to Dulles Airport (DC's International Airport) via the Airport Toll Road. The first phase, which is about 60% of the way to the airport, is scheduled to be done in 2013. The second phase is scheduled to be done by 2016, which would connect the Metro to the station at Dulles Airport BUILT IN THE 1970s.
Free up that cash, as the DESIGNS have been submitted/approved, get people along the Dulles Corridor on the METRO to go into DC as opposed to sitting in traffic jams.
This is a project that is being done slowly as money becomes available. It is needed and planned. I am sure there are other such projects in other areas of the country. How many bridges need to fall (like I35 in MN) when the engineers KNOW they need to be repaired/replaced?
How about new schools? Hiring/keeping teachers?
Implementing programs like Headstart and Special Ed in places that underfund it?
High Country News has an interesting article about the stimulus and rail infrastructure:
http://www.hcn.org/issues/41.2/all-aboard?src=feat
@Gottlob: regarding the electoral history charts, I think 538 ran into some problems with Flicker back in October-November because of excessive demand. So some stuff got taken down at that time.
It's good you noticed this and I hope Nate and his tech people will address it. This problem also affects some of the regular articles in the archive, for which the charts don't load any more.
Simply for the security/integrity of the whole archive of articles this is an important thing to fix.
A drinking party with Congress tonight?
Obama is a freakin' political genius.
lol the republican amendment just went down in flames
I think that the "retrospective" should wait until 100% of the election results are finalized and indisputable. In particular this means the MN election. We know what the outcome will almost certainly be, but if Nate wants to be exhaustive in his analyses, it makes sense to wait even for that tiny uncertainty to vanish.
Every day it becomes more and more clear that a 21st Century New Deal be put in place. Fuck bipartisanship, you've got an OAP freezing to death and a desperate, albeit mentally disturbed, couple murdering their kids then committing suicide, because they coudn't pay their bills.
BTW, who are these Democratic and RepubliKKKan senators and members of congress President Obama is knocking back jelly shooters with tonight?
PG-
Ummm, well, try to stay sane.
Another Obama genius move is this bill, which sets the scene for most of his agenda - IN THE FIRST WEEK!
Just wait, the highway bill be bigger than ever.
@ Nate: 2 Democrats voted for the GOP version while 9 Republicans voted against their own version.
Wow. Did those two Democrats hit their heads this morning, start the cocktail party way too early, or are they seriously that fucked up?
Clarence Thomas asleep during Obama's inauguration
http://www.americablog.com/2009/01/obama-put-clarence-thomas-to-sleep.html#disqus_thread
First person I looked for when zooming in. Still can't believe this guy is only in the early 60s.
Funnily enough, putting pubic hairs in someone's soda is the least despicable thing about this right-wing lunatic.
My guess:
20-30 Republicans for
5-10 Democrats against
Not a single Repub vote for the package.
WOW, nice hit piece on the stimulus, CNN. According to Dana Bash and John King, the stimulus package is full of pork and Pelosi is evil. And apparently it's incumbent upon the Obama and the Dems to be more bipartisan. WTF?!?!
House vote just in... time to shove a 21st century New Deal down the scum's throat.
CNN are really launching the propaganda.
Republicans are scarily organized.
no one from my party voted for this bill
lol
CNN sucks, watch MSNBC.
vote republican = save money
bill passed thanks to obama nation
That is NOT the Real REAL real Real Joe.
peter said...
Republicans are scarily organized.
So are the Klan.
The House GOP just voted itself into irrelevance. Obama now has political cover to proceed with a purely progressive agenda. If the GOP won't give back, they won't get anything, and they now have no one to blame but themselves.
As a Democrat, I couldn't be happier with the result.
Brad said...
That is NOT the Real REAL real Real Joe.
lol
brad
its me
check my id
Welcome back Mr. Indiana.
who is Mr. Indiana ?
Obama won
i just can't believe it !
You damn well knew you had lost.
Who did YOU vote for?
Hmmm, the real Real Joe would know the reference to his statements and predictions on election night. You ARE NOT the real Real Joe.
stayed home
Brad
its me
just check the blogger id
I am the real Dave. But, I am not the real REAL real Dave. There is another.
Nate is spot on on the Blue Dog voting against, it is a given that any spending priority Obama proposes will be opposed by these people.
And that's why the Democratic Party should make a priority finding good progressive Democrats to challenge the Blue Dogs in their primaries. I am sick to death of these DINOs.
Real joe-
Welcome back, I wont check id's.
So, who will win the repub chair? It is insane to me that they are even contemplating becoming a more southern, more limited party.
THIS IS GREAT NEWS, FOR REAL JOE!
Real Joe-
The only republican 538 can love.
i so wish the democrats would can pelosi and reid. i'd have alot more respect for the house and senate if those two weren't leading it.
that being said, thank god the dems are in charge, otherwise this bill would have been a trillion dollars in tax cuts to "stimulate" the trickle down theory that has never worked.
btmorex said...
I'd love to see huge spending on mass transit (the country really needs it), but unfortunately I think it's hard to argue that that would be good stimulus. Most of these projects take years before anything actually happens because of the need for detailed planning.
Well, btmorex, you're probably unaware that the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, serving New York City and its metropolitan area as far as New Haven and Trenton, is facing such huge deficits that it had to propose a budget with drastic fare increases, the cancellation of two subway lines and numerous bus lines, service cuts system-wide. How much do you think that saps the economy? I'm sure that numerous transit authorities face similar deficits and calamitous cuts to service and maintenance, let alone capital improvement projects.
wv: [potatoes au] gratin
P.S. PorridgeGun, what's an OAP?
MICHAEL
on the far side of the pond, our brit friends refer to social security seniors as OAP [old age pensioners]
WV - droun
we will droun in our own red ink...
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