Missed this 14-state poll from SurveyUSA, which shows Obama with at least 60 percent approval in such traditionally nonfertile territory as Alabama, Kansas and Kentucky.
Not only is Obama popular in every state, in fact, but in every region of every state in SurveyUSA's crosstabs. The poorest numbers I can find are in central Virginia, where SurveyUSA pegs Obama's approval score at 55 percent (but against just 23 percent disapproving).
Semi-related thought: the downside to Obama's "Price is Right" strategy on the stimulus may be that, in having the Democratic Congress do his dirty work for him, the bill is starting to be labeled as the Democratic Congress Stimulus Package rather than the Obama Stimulus. Still, after seeing these numbers, one would tend to think that Republican bluster about the stimulus losing steam is indeed just that.
1.27.2009
Alabama ♥s Obama
by Nate Silver @ 12:51 PM...see also approval ratings, obama, stimulus
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First?
Ok, Curtis, you win....this time.
As a side note, MSNBC reports that the dems just removed the contraceptive portion of the stimulus b/c they've been getting killed on the air (over the weekend by Boehner and on the radio by Limbaugh).
This is why it is so hard to vote Democratic and stay a hardline Dem b/c they give in on every issue when the right makes a big stink among their base.
I'm glad that Barry O came out immediately and stood up to the selling of the war in Iraq. That's the mood that most fairly competent average joes have when it comes to politicians as a whole. If you disagree w/ something or someone, stand your ground and make no apologies. But Dems are too afraid to say "yes" I'm socially liberal on some of my beliefs.
The country by and large has rejected everything that Bush and the Republican right have stood for over the last 8 years and the country has changed drasticly. To quote Pat Buchanan "The neocons haven't just been defeated, they've been discredited..." - Meaning 66% of this country aren't listening to what they have to say. Not saying that they don't bring valid points, but the Republican party has lost a major amount of public trust and are by and large a regional party at best - thanks in no small part to conservative radio and "the government takes your money and gives it to THOSE people" rhetoric.
Hate to get longwinded, but the point I'm trying to make is this is so typical of Dems to cave in - the point that they caved pisses me off so much.
1.) Laissez-faire capitalism doesn't work.
2.) Trickle down economics doesn't work
3.) The Bush 1% Doctrine on foreign policy is a disaster.
That's why I voted for Barry and support his policies. I don't think that the stimulus will work wonders overnight and I do realize that it will pass no matter what. And I even understand that Barry O is trying his best to be bipartisan, but dude - get real.
No wonder Obama decided to run 4 prez w/ Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi as the Democratic Party Leaders. Their so useless its frustrating.
Maybe someone else can calm me down, but I'm sick of Dems being pantywasted by "The Angry White Guy Party"...
It really is interesting how everyone is jumping on the bandwagon. I have family spread across the deep South, all of whom said all sorts of terrible things about Obama before the election and voted for McCain. Yet, since the election, and particularly since the inauguration, many of them have communicated to me their growing respect for Obama and confidence that he will lead the country in the right direction. (These are the same people who, before the election, were convinced he was the Antichrist.) Bizarre.
HAHHA. He has been in office 1 WEEK and you folks are talking about approval ratings.
Give me a break. Bush's was at 92% at one point and 2.5 years later it was down to 50%.
Obama got a lot of promises he gotta fulfill.....
NATE
quibble BUT there is a HUGE difference between APPROVAL [as in either/or Yes/No] and POPULARITY
sorry, but saying you support ot approve of Obama does not directly corelate to POPULARITY or elecroral support
I APPROVE of how John McCain has handled himself since the election - but that does not mean I support him over would give him high popularity marks on a sliding scale...
for comparison, look at the new polls out this week in NY state. Approval #'s for Paterson are much higher than his Popularity #'s in terms of support for reelection against Cuomo or other candidates
comparing apples to oranges
BTW - did you see that DiaGeo/Hotline is staying in the polling game. Just out today, a APPROVAL poll that gives Obama a miserly 63% 'thumbs up' on the job he is doing
I agree. Approval numbers are utterly meaningless this early in a presidential term. He hasn't actually had time to do anything yet, and everyone understands that what's happening to the country right now isn't his fault. It's really irrelevant where his approval ratings START, it's relevant where they are 6 months and a year from now.
"...the downside to Obama's 'Price is Right' strategy on the stimulus may be that, in having the Democratic Congress do his dirty work for him, the bill is starting to be labeled as the Democratic Congress Stimulus Package rather than the Obama Stimulus."
Obama previously said he doesn't care who gets the credit. That's what good leaders do. They let other people feel good about themselves, as long as it makes good things happen.
Wow Continue to Spread the Word!!!, is McCain's web site still giving points for spreading GOP talking points? Neat.
Hotline poll has 63% cumulative 'Approval' of which 42% saying they "strongly approve."
in other words, the DEM base of 42% is solidly behind BHO so far...
the 21% of soft approvers is most likely composed of the IND demo
the good news was that only 9% 'disapprove' with the remaining 29% as 'unsure' - that would be mostly the GOPer base on the sidelines during the honeymoon
but that still does not translate directly into 'popularity' - although the 'strongly approve' demo most likely would
they also do a FAVORABLE poll with 55% 'strongly FAV'+ 21% 'somewhat fav' = 76% as opposed to 15% 'unfavorables'
but that is also NOT a real direct measure of 'popularity'
@ http://www.diageohotlinepoll.com/documents/diageohotlinepoll/DiageoHotlinePoll_Topline_01.27.09.pdf
jroc, I think you're mistaken here. I don't think the clause Obama pushed to remove can in any way be described as essential to the bailout bill. Contraceptive distribution is not what's going to reboot the economy.
By removing it he achieves several things:
1. Makes a (pretty cheap) demonstration of his power to influence the process
2. Sends a message (again, pretty cheaply) that the bailout bill is going to be focussed on the issue of the economy and should not be loaded up with all the hefty pork pies legislators love to dump on it.
3.Makes it clear to moderate Republicans that he's willing to listen to their concerns when he thinks their justified. I mean, this IS a bailout bill, not a budget, or a statement of intent on contraception.
Seems like a pretty smart strategy to me, esp given that this Presidency is a game with many interations, and more difficult things like healthcare reform are going to need moderate GOPers like Voinovich and Specter on board to break any filibusters from the headbangers. Saying to them now "I listen, I respond, even if it hurts me with my base" (as your post makes clear it might) seems like a good way to build political capital with these people.
HOTLINE also polled on understanding & support for the TARP & proposed stimulus bill
@ www.diageohotlinepoll.com
those #'s are helpful for reading the tea leaves of how the congressional votes line up
The GOP is in an interesting position here. There are good number of tax cuts in the stimulus, although not tilted to the Silver Spoon crowd as is usually the case.
So if the Republicans vote overwhelmingly against a substantive tax cut that benefits a majority of Americans, don't they just further solidfy the 'Party of Rich' label?
Personally, if I were a Republican, there's no way in hell I'd vote for it. If the stimulus succeeds, Obama's coattails sweep me out of office, if it fails, I get primaried by the Supply Side Jesus Brigade. Its a no-brainer.
As for approvals...I'll bet there's "shy tory" and social desirability effects here. First, grouchy country club Republicans in Alabama and Kansas who don't like Obama are not likely to to be answering pollsters' calls right now, while Dems in the same are going to be tripping over themselves to register their joy at the "end of an error". Second, doesn't registering disapproval of the first black president right after his nomination and before he's done much look rather prejudiced? Particularly if you're from Alabama. Best to just say you approve or hang up the phone, at least until you have an excuse to disapprove.
I know pollsters do their best to correct for these things, but I'd have thought they're likely to be be particularly strong right now, with blanket favourable coverage of the "historic" inauguration still ringing round people's brains.
Toby,
I think the election put a decisive end to the credibility of any of that Bradley Effect-esque theorizing.
jroc133,
"Progressives" need to reconcile their desire for more infrastructure spending with their sudden need to include contraception funding. If people want more money into mass transit, they need to target the huge chunk of suboptimal spending in the bill, not the tax cuts. Take a cue from the GOP, the social welfare fluff is easy pickings for people looking to increase their share of the pie.
marvelousape, I disagree.
Firstly, This isn't a "Bradley effect" thing - people aren't lying. There just not answering the phone. This is what happened with the "shy tories" in the UK in the early 1990s - they were embarrased to be associated with a discredited party, particularly when a compelling, charismatic leader was in charge of the other party. So they just stopped answering polls. The polls then overstated Labour support (sometimes hugely so).
Second, some of the work I've seen on the "Bradley effect" argues it manifests not due to latent racism but due to the lack of an alternative explanation for one's negative (race based) opinion. So straight ticket Democrats who wouldn't vote for Bradley (or Dinkins) but couldn't develop a reasonable race neutral reason for their opposition simply avoided disclosing their preferences. The same thing could be at work here, especially with the inaugural coverage continually emphasising Obama's race wheras his campaign worked ceaselessly to de-emphasise it.
Toby,
I hear you and I understand. Right now Barry is implementing fantastic strategy on all levels (w/ Repubs, the conservative pundits, and even the Limbaugh fringe).
I really shouldn't underestimate Barack Hussein b/c he has proven so many of the so-called experts wrong on so many levels. This guy is making history and we are witnessing it.
Before I sound like a complete liberal wingnut - I just want to make one thing clear: There is nothing wrong w/ being a conservative. I'm talking about the Joe Scarboroughs, the Colin Powells, Chuck Hagels, and Richard Lugars of the world (wow, I compared a sometimes hack like Scarborough w/ the likes of above forementioned). I even admire Bush 41 for the statesmen that he was and also hold Ronald Regan in high regard as a president who changed and shaped our nation.
But I am so sick and tired of these wingnut clowns like the Limbaughs, Hannitys, Coulters, and Glenn Becks of this country who took everything that Ronald Regan stood 4 and pissed it away.
I just listened to the exchange this morning on Morning Joe between Ratigan and Carlson and Tucker Carlson is one of the biggest clowns I have ever seen in my life!!! While people are losing their jobs and losing their livelihoods, this clown is still spouting that free market mantra of do nothing IN TODAY'S Economic climate.
I understand that the New Deal didn't work overnight, but FDR at least did something to instill confidence not just in the nation but to some extent in our financial institution. To say that we should do nothing is almost criminal that it borders the insane.
I understand that Barack is making the economy priority number 1 as it should be, but the whole dog and pony show that Republicans are playing right now is absolutely comical.
Just my thoughts, man. Just my thoughts. Maybe that's why the mood of the country perceives the GOP to be out of touch. One last thing, Sarahcuda the failed sportscaster has just launched SarahPAC.
John McCain created a monster...
West Virginia also, according to a new Blankenship poll: Obama "carries a favorable opinion with 67 percent of West Virginia voters."
http://www.statejournal.com/story.cfm?func=viewstory&storyid=50464
The point is not really the message, however, but the messenger. Kirk is one of the more moderate Republicans in the House. He hails from Barack Obama's home state, and is one of the few remaining House Republicans to represent a district with a Democratic-leaning electorate (the PVI of Kirk's district is D+4). He is reportedly considering a run for the Senate in 2010 in a state not particularly known for its fiscal conservativism.
Kirk first has to win a primary to run in the general election. Among IL Republican representatives, he's the least conservative, well to the left of the party as a whole. I imagine he needs to burnish his conservative bona fides if he is to win a statewide primary.
JROC -
contraception distribution will be passed by the dems, just give it time. and no reason to give conservative reps an "out" on the stimulus package. I can just see a neo-con rep using the contraception issue as a reason to vote no on the stimulus.
Here's a CRAZY thing i noticed when looking at each one of the 14 polls.
In the only two states where hispanic AND african americans were shown (new york and california) HISPANICS APPROVE OF OBAMA MORE THAN AFRICAN AMERICANS.
could someone explain why this is to me?
Re: Central Virginia having the lowest approval numbers for Obama.
Gee, that's Eric Cantor's (R-I Want to be George Macacca Allen) territory. What a surprise. Not. Cantor is a despicable, disingenuous Congressman.
DSALKOVI
agreed on Cantor. here is my post on Cantor from the next 'stimulus' thread:
"Eric CANTOR is a living breathing Lizard Person !
I swear I saw his gills flair & his tongue flick while he was preening & posturing under the hot glare of the camera lights on TV today
damm, another reptilean GOPer gila monster !!!
but turn off the hot bright lights & hew scurries back into his cave...
Cantor comes across as cold-blooded & snarky & untrustworthy - or is it just me ?"
IF Cantor is gonna be the new fresh-face of the GOPers in Congress, then the DEMs like Pelosi will be sitting pretty !
If I'm understanding correctly, the "Price is Right" strategy was meant to increase the size of the stimulus package. If that's true, it didn't work- the final bill that the House will vote on tomorrow is essentially the same size as when you wrote the article. If anything, it's a bit smaller.
So Obama's strategy didn't work, but as long as 256 exceeds 178 and 57 or 58 is greater than 41, some stimulus will pass.
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制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
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