One nugget from Pew Research that I'd missed earlier: Barack Obama performed 9 points better than John Kerry among urban whites. This was not by any means the most important factor in his election, but it helps to explain the large improvements that the Democratic ticket made in states like Colorado and Nevada, where a great deal of the population is concentrated in Denver and Las Vegas, respectively, and why Republicans were at best able to tread water by targeting the rural areas of Pennsylvania, while Obama waltzed his way to winning large majorities of white and black voters in Philadelphia.
This also attests, of course, to the stupidity of bashing big cities. Roughly 82 million Americans live in cities of 100,000 persons or more, including 40 million in cities of 500,000 persons or more. This does not count smaller cities or suburban areas, which account for another 150 million Americans or so. (Don't neglect the fact, also, that many Americans who do have their residence in big cities may nevertheless work or play in them, and therefore think well of them). By contrast, only about 60 million Americans live in rural areas.
The Bush-Rove team of 2000 and 2004 understood the importance of appealing to suburban voters ... that is a viable strategy. Pitching your appeal to rural voters, on the other hand, probably will not work. They're outnumbered by the city dwellers in the first place, and if your attacks are strident enough that the suburbanites start to side with the urbanites, you've given yourself a big problem.
11.08.2008
The Contact Gap: Proof of the Importance of the Ground Game?
@ 2:50 PM
One of the more interesting questions posed on this year's exit polls was whether the voter had been contacted by the Obama and McCain campaigns personally about getting out to vote. Unfortunately, the exit poll consortium did not ask this question in all states, but it did in a dozen or so competitive states; these figures are summarized below:
The largest gaps, however, were in Indiana and out west in Colorado and Nevada, all places where Obama outperformed his polls on election day. (Unfortuntely, the exit surveys did not poll this question in New Mexico, where I'd expect you'd find similar numbers). Conversely, in West Virginia -- the only state where McCain had a superior contact rate -- Obama underpeformed his polls by several points on Tuesday.
We can, naturally, examine this relationship for all 12 battleground states. On the horizontal axis, we will plot the gap in contact rate, and on the vertical axis, the Obama-McCain gap in the popular vote versus that projected by the final 538 Trend-Adjusted Polling Average.
There is indeed a fairly strong relationship between contact rate and Obama's overperformance or underperformance in the polls. (The R-squared of the linear regression line you see in the chart is .51, indicating that about half of the gap between Obama's projected and actual performance was explained by disparities in the ground game.) Roughly speaking, each marginal 10-point advantage in contact rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote in that state. So the rule of thumb that a "good" ground game may be worth additional 2-3 points above and beyond what is reflected in the polls appears to hold; a great ground game may be worth somewhat more than that.
Interestingly, the regression line suggests that in states where there was no contact rate advantage -- that is, states where the Obama and McCain campaigns contacted an equal number of voters -- Obama would underperform his polls by about 3 points. This has several potential interpretations, but the one I find most compelling is that Democrats are in fact relying upon lower-propensity voters like youth and minorities. Therefore, it is more incumbent upon the Democrats to have a strong ground game to turn these voters out.
Nationally, there was an 8-point gap in contact rate ... the Obama campaign reached 26 percent of voters with its GOTV efforts to McCain's 18 percent. This can be contrasted with 2004, when Kerry's campaign contacted 26 percent of voters to Bush's 24. Although Obama's field operation was good, Kerry's was pretty good too; the difference may be that while Bush's field operation was also good, John McCain's was not. It is also possible that Obama's field operation was more efficient than Kerry's, as the contact rate gap was larger in battleground than in non-battleground states. I have heard multiple stories of voters in states like Indiana receiving as many as three or four in-person contacts from the Obama campaign on Tuesday. This is a sign of a campaign that knew where the tipping points were, rather than (say) sending volunteers to Michigan on Election Day just to play it safe.
% of Voters Reporting Direct Contact from Campaigns
State Obama McCain Gap
NV 50% 29% 21%
CO 51% 34% 17%
IN 37% 22% 15%
VA 50% 38% 12%
PA 50% 39% 11%
IA 41% 30% 11%
FL 29% 20% 9%
NC 34% 26% 8%
MO 44% 37% 7%
OH 43% 36% 7%
WI 42% 39% 3%
WV 29% 31% -2%The Obama campaign had a superior contact rate in 11 of the 12 battlegrounds; the only exception was West Virginia. Wisconsin was also relatively close, perhaps because Obama redirected its legion number of Illinois-based volunteers from Wisconsin to Indiana a couple of weeks in advance of the election.The largest gaps, however, were in Indiana and out west in Colorado and Nevada, all places where Obama outperformed his polls on election day. (Unfortuntely, the exit surveys did not poll this question in New Mexico, where I'd expect you'd find similar numbers). Conversely, in West Virginia -- the only state where McCain had a superior contact rate -- Obama underpeformed his polls by several points on Tuesday.
We can, naturally, examine this relationship for all 12 battleground states. On the horizontal axis, we will plot the gap in contact rate, and on the vertical axis, the Obama-McCain gap in the popular vote versus that projected by the final 538 Trend-Adjusted Polling Average.
There is indeed a fairly strong relationship between contact rate and Obama's overperformance or underperformance in the polls. (The R-squared of the linear regression line you see in the chart is .51, indicating that about half of the gap between Obama's projected and actual performance was explained by disparities in the ground game.) Roughly speaking, each marginal 10-point advantage in contact rate translated into a marginal 3-point gain in the popular vote in that state. So the rule of thumb that a "good" ground game may be worth additional 2-3 points above and beyond what is reflected in the polls appears to hold; a great ground game may be worth somewhat more than that.
Interestingly, the regression line suggests that in states where there was no contact rate advantage -- that is, states where the Obama and McCain campaigns contacted an equal number of voters -- Obama would underperform his polls by about 3 points. This has several potential interpretations, but the one I find most compelling is that Democrats are in fact relying upon lower-propensity voters like youth and minorities. Therefore, it is more incumbent upon the Democrats to have a strong ground game to turn these voters out.
Nationally, there was an 8-point gap in contact rate ... the Obama campaign reached 26 percent of voters with its GOTV efforts to McCain's 18 percent. This can be contrasted with 2004, when Kerry's campaign contacted 26 percent of voters to Bush's 24. Although Obama's field operation was good, Kerry's was pretty good too; the difference may be that while Bush's field operation was also good, John McCain's was not. It is also possible that Obama's field operation was more efficient than Kerry's, as the contact rate gap was larger in battleground than in non-battleground states. I have heard multiple stories of voters in states like Indiana receiving as many as three or four in-person contacts from the Obama campaign on Tuesday. This is a sign of a campaign that knew where the tipping points were, rather than (say) sending volunteers to Michigan on Election Day just to play it safe.
11.07.2008
Uncounted Votes May Push Begich Past Stevens
@ 7:21 PM
Although Ted Stevens currently holds a lead of approximately 3,200 votes in ballots counted to date in Alaska's senate contest, there is good reason to believe that the ballots yet to be counted -- the vast majority of which are early and absentee ballots -- will allow Mark Begich to mitigate his disadvantage with Stevens and quite possibly pull ahead of him.
The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska's 40 house districts as taken from Alaska's Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself.
(Notes: Totals and percentages exclude ballots cast for minor-party candidates. Data for District 3 was incomplete on the Divisions of Elections website and is extrapolated from returns in the Young-Berkowitz in that district. Percentages are not calculated in districts with fewer than 100 early votes have been counted).
As you can see, there is an essentially linear relationship between the percentage of regular votes received by Mark Begich in a particular district and his percentage of early votes, with his share of the early vote generally running 10-15 points higher:
There are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes, which are essentially early votes conducted by mail. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "question" or "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts.
Let's go about allocating these votes in the following way:
Early Votes. Uncounted early ballots will be allocated between Begich and Stevens in the same proportion as already-counted early ballots in a given district. In districts where fewer than 100 early votes have been counted so far, the early vote allocation is extrapolated based on election day votes, as determined from the regression line in the chart above.
In each district, 5 percent of early votes are reserved for third-party candidates befoer the Begich-Stevens allocation is made.
The early vote allocation alone is worth a net of about 1,750 votes to Begich, cutting his deficit with Stevens roughly in half.
Absentee Votes. It is unclear whether there is a meaningful distinction between absentee votes, which are conducted by mail, and early votes, which are conucted in person. In some districts, there were almost no in-person early votes cast, suggesting that the only way to vote early in that district may have been by mail.
What I have decided to do in allocating the absentee vote is to split the difference between early and regular ballots. For example, in District 32, 60 percent of early votes went to Mark Begich as did 46 percent of regular votes. Therefore, 53 percent of absentee votes (half-way between 60 and 46) were assigned to Begich in this district, and the other 47 percent to Stevens.
As in the case of early votes, 5 percent of absentee ballots were reserved for third-party candidates before the Begich-Stevens allocation was made.
This allocation produces a net of about 4,700 votes for Begich.
Questioned Ballots. Questioned ballots are allocated according to the proportion of regular (Election Day) ballots received by Begich and Stevens in each district. However, we assume that one-third of questioned ballots will be deemed illegitimate and will be thrown out. In addition, 5 percent of questioned ballots are assigned to third-party candidates.
This allocation produces a net of about 250 votes for Stevens.
*-*
Combining the already-counted votes with our allocation of early, absentee and questioned ballots produces a projected total of 142,174 votes for Mark Begich and 139,258 for Ted Stevens -- a win for the Democrat by approximately 3,000 ballots:
Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate, particularly regarding the nature of absentee ballots. If absentee ballots behave like in-person early ballots, which gave a substantial advantage to Mark Begich, then Begich will defeat Stevens, perhaps by some decent margin. If they behave more like regular, election-day ballots, then Stevens will hold on to a narrow victory. If they are somewhere in between, as we have assumed, then Begich is the favorite to win, although the outcome will be close.
With so few early and absentee ballots counted to date, Ted Stevens' lead is not nearly so robust as it appears. Until we get better information about the nature of the absentee vote in Alaska, the race should probably be regarded as a toss-up.
The reasoning behind this is simple: some early ballots have been processed, and among those ballots Begich substantially leads Stevens. A tally of Alaska's 40 house districts as taken from Alaska's Division of Elections webpage suggests that Begich has won about 61% of the early ballots counted so far, as compared with 48% of ballots cast on Election Day itself.
(Notes: Totals and percentages exclude ballots cast for minor-party candidates. Data for District 3 was incomplete on the Divisions of Elections website and is extrapolated from returns in the Young-Berkowitz in that district. Percentages are not calculated in districts with fewer than 100 early votes have been counted).
As you can see, there is an essentially linear relationship between the percentage of regular votes received by Mark Begich in a particular district and his percentage of early votes, with his share of the early vote generally running 10-15 points higher:
There are currently at least 9,500 early votes remaining to be counted in Alaska. In addition, there are more than 50,000 absentee votes, which are essentially early votes conducted by mail. Lastly, there are at least 18,000 "question" or "questioned" ballots, which consist principally of voters who may have cast ballots away from their home precincts.
Let's go about allocating these votes in the following way:
Early Votes. Uncounted early ballots will be allocated between Begich and Stevens in the same proportion as already-counted early ballots in a given district. In districts where fewer than 100 early votes have been counted so far, the early vote allocation is extrapolated based on election day votes, as determined from the regression line in the chart above.
In each district, 5 percent of early votes are reserved for third-party candidates befoer the Begich-Stevens allocation is made.
The early vote allocation alone is worth a net of about 1,750 votes to Begich, cutting his deficit with Stevens roughly in half.
Absentee Votes. It is unclear whether there is a meaningful distinction between absentee votes, which are conducted by mail, and early votes, which are conucted in person. In some districts, there were almost no in-person early votes cast, suggesting that the only way to vote early in that district may have been by mail.
What I have decided to do in allocating the absentee vote is to split the difference between early and regular ballots. For example, in District 32, 60 percent of early votes went to Mark Begich as did 46 percent of regular votes. Therefore, 53 percent of absentee votes (half-way between 60 and 46) were assigned to Begich in this district, and the other 47 percent to Stevens.
As in the case of early votes, 5 percent of absentee ballots were reserved for third-party candidates before the Begich-Stevens allocation was made.
This allocation produces a net of about 4,700 votes for Begich.
Questioned Ballots. Questioned ballots are allocated according to the proportion of regular (Election Day) ballots received by Begich and Stevens in each district. However, we assume that one-third of questioned ballots will be deemed illegitimate and will be thrown out. In addition, 5 percent of questioned ballots are assigned to third-party candidates.
This allocation produces a net of about 250 votes for Stevens.
*-*
Combining the already-counted votes with our allocation of early, absentee and questioned ballots produces a projected total of 142,174 votes for Mark Begich and 139,258 for Ted Stevens -- a win for the Democrat by approximately 3,000 ballots:
Obviously, there is a lot of uncertainty in this estimate, particularly regarding the nature of absentee ballots. If absentee ballots behave like in-person early ballots, which gave a substantial advantage to Mark Begich, then Begich will defeat Stevens, perhaps by some decent margin. If they behave more like regular, election-day ballots, then Stevens will hold on to a narrow victory. If they are somewhere in between, as we have assumed, then Begich is the favorite to win, although the outcome will be close.
With so few early and absentee ballots counted to date, Ted Stevens' lead is not nearly so robust as it appears. Until we get better information about the nature of the absentee vote in Alaska, the race should probably be regarded as a toss-up.
AP Calls Maryland House Seat for Dem
@ 7:13 PM
Maryland's first House district, held by the retiring Wayne Gilchrest (R), has been flipped blue, according to the Associated Press.
This leaves AK-AL, WA-08, CA-04, and VA-05, where Miss Virginia's canvassing efforts, inspired by Nancy Pfotenhauer and "real Virginia," have helped a rising tide lift Tom Perriello's boat. Perriello has declared victory.
Yesterday, we forgot to include OH-15, where Mary Jo Kilroy (D) and Steve Stivers (R) were locked in a battle for Republican Deborah Pryce's open seat. This seat is to the west of Columbus, and shows a 149-vote lead for Stivers.
We also forgot to include the potential shocker in California's 44th district, where incumbent Ken Calvert was clinging to a tiny lead over challenger Bill Hedrick. The AP called the race for Calvert but Swing State Project is noting that there are up to 100,000 absentee ballots left to be counted in the narrow race. Calvert has declared victory.
This leaves AK-AL, WA-08, CA-04, and VA-05, where Miss Virginia's canvassing efforts, inspired by Nancy Pfotenhauer and "real Virginia," have helped a rising tide lift Tom Perriello's boat. Perriello has declared victory.
Yesterday, we forgot to include OH-15, where Mary Jo Kilroy (D) and Steve Stivers (R) were locked in a battle for Republican Deborah Pryce's open seat. This seat is to the west of Columbus, and shows a 149-vote lead for Stivers.
We also forgot to include the potential shocker in California's 44th district, where incumbent Ken Calvert was clinging to a tiny lead over challenger Bill Hedrick. The AP called the race for Calvert but Swing State Project is noting that there are up to 100,000 absentee ballots left to be counted in the narrow race. Calvert has declared victory.
Obama Wins Omaha, NE Electoral Vote; Final Tally Looks to be 365-173
@ 6:25 PM
The Omaha World-Herald and several other news organizations have called Nebraska's Second Congressional District, which incorporates Omaha and some of its suburbs and exurbs, for President-Elect Barack Obama.
The only outstanding electoral votes are now in Missouri, which some organizations have yet to call for John McCain. It appears to us, however, that there are an insufficient number of provisional ballots to provide Barack Obama with a realistic opportunity to win there, and so we are calling that state for John McCain for the time being.
This brings Obama's haul from Tuesday evening to 365 electoral votes, a similar total to the 370 that Bill Clinton won en route to his first term in 1992. Obama's victory, however, might have more symbolic power than Clinton's because of the success that he has had in flipping formerly ruby-red territories like Indiana, North Carolina and Omaha, Nebraska over to the blue team. Not coincidentally, these are some of the states in which Obama was furthest ahead of McCain in terms of organization and ground game, along with the Mountain West where he won states like Nevada and New Mexico by surprisingly large margins.
The only outstanding electoral votes are now in Missouri, which some organizations have yet to call for John McCain. It appears to us, however, that there are an insufficient number of provisional ballots to provide Barack Obama with a realistic opportunity to win there, and so we are calling that state for John McCain for the time being.
This brings Obama's haul from Tuesday evening to 365 electoral votes, a similar total to the 370 that Bill Clinton won en route to his first term in 1992. Obama's victory, however, might have more symbolic power than Clinton's because of the success that he has had in flipping formerly ruby-red territories like Indiana, North Carolina and Omaha, Nebraska over to the blue team. Not coincidentally, these are some of the states in which Obama was furthest ahead of McCain in terms of organization and ground game, along with the Mountain West where he won states like Nevada and New Mexico by surprisingly large margins.
Live From Chicago, Transition Press Conference #1
@ 2:33 PM
2:13 CST: [Nate] That was pretty impressive. Obama was charming and assertive, and the campaign has a real knack for ceremony and staging (e.g. the phalanx of economic advisers standing behind Obama). The press corps is going to love him, at least for the first several months.
Any real news here? Not much -- although Obama more clearly articulated the need for an economic stimulus package than he had on the campaign trail. In spite of his protestations that we only have one president at a time, the first test of the strength of his mandate might be whether Congress can muscle a stimulus package through in the lame-duck session.
2:10 CST: [Sean] Obama blows off Candy Crowley's question about having seen new intelligence since he's gotten access.
2:09 CST: [Sean] Lynn Sweet and Obama joke about her injury (which apparently took place when she was running to his speech in Grant Park), then she asks about what kind of dog Obama's going to buy, which Presidents he's spoken to, and where his girls will go to school. Obama jokes he's only talked to "living" presidents, and it's not a "Nancy Reagan type seance situation." But has re-read Lincoln. Dog is very important, Obama says, a "major issue."
2:05 CST: [Sean] Question: Is it important to move especially quickly to announce Cabinet appointments? Obama: "move with all deliberate haste, emphasis on deliberate as well as haste." By the way, Nate is up close to the action, so it's me for now.
2:01 CST: [Sean] Question: Did you respond to Ahmadinejad's letter of congratulations, when will you send low level envoys to Iran, Syria, North Korea, etc. Obama: Iran's nuclear program is unacceptable; I'll review the letter and respond in due time. We only have one president at a time.
1:58 CST: [Sean] First question: what can any president do in the first 100 days to rebuild the economy? Obama: A president can do a lot. We need a stimulus package passed before or after inauguration. We need jobs, because hemorrhaging of jobs hurts consumer confidence and has enormous spillover effects. I'm confident a new president can have an enormous impact, that's why I ran.
1:55 CST: [Sean] Focuses soberly on the economy right out of the gate. Seems in clear command. Questions upcoming, but it's all economy, all specifics.
1:47 CST: [Nate] I wonder if Obama will have one of those presumptuously arrogant President-Elect seals at the podium.
1:40 CST: [Sean] Nate and I will be reporting live from the press conference at the Hilton on Michigan Ave in Chicago. Brett is somewhere running around taking pictures, the scamp. Maybe Flickr will even host them, or return Nate's correspondence about why they've blocked all of Brett's images and some of Nate's. Anyway, should begin momentarily.
Senator, You Can Have My Answer Now, If You Like
@ 1:20 PM
So alludes Josh Marshall at TPM, in advising Harry Reid on how to handle Joe Lieberman. Per Politico, a Lieberman staffer says of Lieberman,
It's hard not to laugh openly at that. Lieberman has zero leverage. Throwing out childish tantrum words like "unacceptable" assumes that Democrats stand to lose something if Lieberman goes to the Republican side.
Remember, this is the guy John McCain desperately wanted to pick for VP. Republicans were willing to stage a convention floor fight to stop that from happening. Thus begat Sarah Palin. Lieberman is not going to be well-loved in the Republican caucus. His best hope is to kiss an incredible amount of Democratic butt and hope he doesn't get expelled.
But Marshall's right. Michael Corleone at the beginning of II "negotiating" with Nevada's Senator Geary over casino licenses is the right understanding of who has the leverage and who has the bluster here.
his position is he wants to remain in the caucus but losing the chairmanship is unacceptable.
It's hard not to laugh openly at that. Lieberman has zero leverage. Throwing out childish tantrum words like "unacceptable" assumes that Democrats stand to lose something if Lieberman goes to the Republican side.
Remember, this is the guy John McCain desperately wanted to pick for VP. Republicans were willing to stage a convention floor fight to stop that from happening. Thus begat Sarah Palin. Lieberman is not going to be well-loved in the Republican caucus. His best hope is to kiss an incredible amount of Democratic butt and hope he doesn't get expelled.
But Marshall's right. Michael Corleone at the beginning of II "negotiating" with Nevada's Senator Geary over casino licenses is the right understanding of who has the leverage and who has the bluster here.
Senator, you can have my answer now, if you like. My final offer is this: nothing. Not even the fee for the gaming license, which I would appreciate if you would put up personally.
11.06.2008
What Remains Uncalled
@ 7:30 PM
In the presidential contest, only Missouri remains uncalled. The single electoral vote in Omaha remains uncalled, but it looks like Obama will win it. Per the Omaha World Herald,
In the Senate, three races remain undecided, and the tally stands at 57-40, in favor of the Democrats, if you include Joe Lieberman. Harry Reid may finally be laying the groundwork to kick Joe to the curb, as the two met today. But that aside, the Georgia race is going to a runoff, and the winner won't be known until December 2.
In Minnesota, an automatic recount will be triggered between Al Franken and Norm Coleman, with the only immediate drama being who will go into the recount with the lead. Coleman appears likely to have that lead, but the numbers have inched closer in Franken's direction.
In Alaska, there seems to have been an across-the-board polling failure, one we wrote about yesterday. Alaskans seem to have gone for the convicted tubes guy, with a giant caveat that thousands of ballots seem to be unaccounted for. Josh Marshall now dryly supports the Alaska Independence Party, and given the way Talking Points Memo has completely owned the Alaska political corruption stories over the past several years, we'd say he's earned the privilege.
In the House, Democrat Tom Perriello appears near to defeating Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th district running from Charlottesville down to the southern border. Perriello leads by 639 votes in the Virginia State Board of Elections' latest update. Albemarle was, ironically, where we saw a decent Republican ground game, relative to other Republican efforts. We also saw a huge Democratic effort that dwarfed the Republican operation.
In Maryland, Democrat Frank Kravotil holds a 1,871 vote lead on Republican Andy Harris. That's the race, you will recall, where primaried Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest refused to support Harris, with this pricelessly sarcastic gem: “Let's see, the Republican Party, or my eternal soul?" Ballots cast in the 2008 race are 340,886, ballots cast in the 2004 race (presidential years get more than mid-term years) numbered 343,735.
In Washington State, the 8th district rematch between Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner is still not called, with Reichert leading by 1,965 votes, but much of the vote still to be counted by mail-in absentee ballot.
In California, Tom McClintock, of Thousand Oaks, was locked in an extremely tight race with Democrat Charlie Brown for the corrupt John Doolittle's retiring seat in CA-04. With thousands of provisional ballots to be counted, that race is still some time away from a decision.
In Alaska, Don Young looks like he'll hold onto his seat, since he holds a large eight-point lead on Ethan Berkowitz, but again, the Alaska results are screwy and the Young-Berkowitz race isn't called.
Finally, in Louisiana, two runoff elections will be held on December 6. In the 2d district, corrupt Democratic incumbent William Jefferson won his race, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election against Anh "Joseph" Cao, his Republican opponent. In Louisiana's 4th district, Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming will vie along with two independents for an open Republican-held seat in the +7 Republican PVI district.
"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers)."
In the Senate, three races remain undecided, and the tally stands at 57-40, in favor of the Democrats, if you include Joe Lieberman. Harry Reid may finally be laying the groundwork to kick Joe to the curb, as the two met today. But that aside, the Georgia race is going to a runoff, and the winner won't be known until December 2.
In Minnesota, an automatic recount will be triggered between Al Franken and Norm Coleman, with the only immediate drama being who will go into the recount with the lead. Coleman appears likely to have that lead, but the numbers have inched closer in Franken's direction.
In Alaska, there seems to have been an across-the-board polling failure, one we wrote about yesterday. Alaskans seem to have gone for the convicted tubes guy, with a giant caveat that thousands of ballots seem to be unaccounted for. Josh Marshall now dryly supports the Alaska Independence Party, and given the way Talking Points Memo has completely owned the Alaska political corruption stories over the past several years, we'd say he's earned the privilege.
In the House, Democrat Tom Perriello appears near to defeating Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th district running from Charlottesville down to the southern border. Perriello leads by 639 votes in the Virginia State Board of Elections' latest update. Albemarle was, ironically, where we saw a decent Republican ground game, relative to other Republican efforts. We also saw a huge Democratic effort that dwarfed the Republican operation.
In Maryland, Democrat Frank Kravotil holds a 1,871 vote lead on Republican Andy Harris. That's the race, you will recall, where primaried Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest refused to support Harris, with this pricelessly sarcastic gem: “Let's see, the Republican Party, or my eternal soul?" Ballots cast in the 2008 race are 340,886, ballots cast in the 2004 race (presidential years get more than mid-term years) numbered 343,735.
In Washington State, the 8th district rematch between Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner is still not called, with Reichert leading by 1,965 votes, but much of the vote still to be counted by mail-in absentee ballot.
In California, Tom McClintock, of Thousand Oaks, was locked in an extremely tight race with Democrat Charlie Brown for the corrupt John Doolittle's retiring seat in CA-04. With thousands of provisional ballots to be counted, that race is still some time away from a decision.
In Alaska, Don Young looks like he'll hold onto his seat, since he holds a large eight-point lead on Ethan Berkowitz, but again, the Alaska results are screwy and the Young-Berkowitz race isn't called.
Finally, in Louisiana, two runoff elections will be held on December 6. In the 2d district, corrupt Democratic incumbent William Jefferson won his race, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election against Anh "Joseph" Cao, his Republican opponent. In Louisiana's 4th district, Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming will vie along with two independents for an open Republican-held seat in the +7 Republican PVI district.
Obama Likely to Win Omaha Electoral Vote
@ 3:18 PM
So comes word comes from the Omaha World-Herald:
Good news for Barack Obama supporters.This would represent the first time that Nebraska has split its electoral votes. Maine, the other state to award some of its electoral votes at the Congressional District level, has never done so.
His odds of bagging an electoral vote in Nebraska grew stronger this morning, with word that 10,000 to 12,000 early ballots and 5,200 provisional ballots are left to count in Douglas County.
Obama won about 61 percent of the early votes counted before Tuesday's election. If that percentage holds with the early ballots left to count, Obama stands a strong chance of winning the Omaha-area 2nd Congressional District.
Republicans did not concede defeat this morning, but they acknowledged the long odds.
John McCain held a 569-vote lead over Obama in the 2nd District at the end of Tuesday.
"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers). We really worked hard here, against substantial resources being poured into Nebraska."
Chicago Event Tonight
@ 3:15 PM
Tonight at 7pm, Al Giordano will be at DePaul University in Chicago to speak and conduct Q & A on the topic "What's Next for the Obama Movement?: The Organizing of the President"
Nate and I, along with Tara Brownlee and Micah Sifry, will be there. Nate will introduce Al, and I may ramble incoherently for a few minutes at the end. Should be good!
It's the SAC building #254, at 2320 N. Kenmore Ave. in Chicago. It's possible fun will be had afterward at local Chicago establishments of dodgy repute. We hope to see you there.
Nate and I, along with Tara Brownlee and Micah Sifry, will be there. Nate will introduce Al, and I may ramble incoherently for a few minutes at the end. Should be good!
It's the SAC building #254, at 2320 N. Kenmore Ave. in Chicago. It's possible fun will be had afterward at local Chicago establishments of dodgy repute. We hope to see you there.
Obama Outperforms Kerry Among Virtually All Demographics
@ 2:03 PM
Comparing exit polls from 2004 and 2008 makes the breadth of Barack Obama's victory clear. Obama received a larger share of the vote than John Kerry among voters of all genders, races, education levels, and income classes, and virtually all religions. The only groups with whom he underperformed Kerry were older (65+) voters, and gay and lesbian voters.
Conversley, there is a hidden source of strength in this table that hasn't been talked much about before: Obama markedly overperformed Kerry among parents. In a sense, it was those people who have most reason to be concerned about the future who voted for Obama: people who are young themeslves, or people who have young children at home.
Conversley, there is a hidden source of strength in this table that hasn't been talked much about before: Obama markedly overperformed Kerry among parents. In a sense, it was those people who have most reason to be concerned about the future who voted for Obama: people who are young themeslves, or people who have young children at home.
11.05.2008
What In The Hell Happened in Alaska?
@ 9:04 PM
Although Ted Stevens holds a small lead in Alaska and is the favorite to retain his seat, the outcome is not as inevitable as it might appear to be. Stevens currently holds a lead of 3,353 votes, or about 1.5 percent of the votes tallied so far. But, there are quite a large number of ballots yet to count. According to Roll Call, these include "at least 40,000 absentee ballot, 9,000 early voting ballots, and an undetermined number of questionable ballots".
Indeed, it seems possible that the number of "questionable" ballots could be quite high. So far, about 220 thousand votes have been processed in Alaska. This compares with 313 thousand votes cast in 2004. After adding back in the roughly 50,000 absentee and early ballots that Roll Call accounts for, that would get us to 270 thousand ballots, or about a 14 percent drop from 2004. It seems unlikely that turnout would drop by 14 percent in Alaska given the presence of both a high-profile senate race and Sarah Palin at the top of the ticket.
But even if Begich were to make up ground and win a narrow victory, this would seem to represent a catastrophic failure of polling, as three polls conducted following the guilty verdict in Stevens' corruption trial had Begich leading by margins of 7, 8 and 22 points, respectively.
The emerging conventional wisdom is that there was some sort of a Bradley Effect in this contest -- voters told pollsters that they weren't about to vote for that rascal Ted Stevens, when in fact they were perfectly happy to. Convicted felons are the new black, it would seem.
The problem with this theory is that the polling failures in Alaska weren't unique to Stevens. They also applied to the presidential race, as well as Alaska's at-large House seat. In each case, the Republican outperformed his pre-election polling by margins ranging from 12 to 14 points:
The second possibility is that a substantial percentage of the Democratic vote is tied up in the early and absentee ballots that have yet to be counted. We know that Barack Obama overperformed among early voters in many states, and Alaska may be no exception. (Although, I would guess that the absentee vote is predominately rural, whereas Begich's base is in Anchorage).
The third possibility is that a lot of those "questionable" ballots are Democratic ones, and that there have been irregularities in the voting tally. Although this is the least likely possibility, Alaska is a provincial state with some history of corruption, and Democrats ought to be making sure that too many of their ballots haven't been disqualified.
Indeed, it seems possible that the number of "questionable" ballots could be quite high. So far, about 220 thousand votes have been processed in Alaska. This compares with 313 thousand votes cast in 2004. After adding back in the roughly 50,000 absentee and early ballots that Roll Call accounts for, that would get us to 270 thousand ballots, or about a 14 percent drop from 2004. It seems unlikely that turnout would drop by 14 percent in Alaska given the presence of both a high-profile senate race and Sarah Palin at the top of the ticket.
But even if Begich were to make up ground and win a narrow victory, this would seem to represent a catastrophic failure of polling, as three polls conducted following the guilty verdict in Stevens' corruption trial had Begich leading by margins of 7, 8 and 22 points, respectively.
The emerging conventional wisdom is that there was some sort of a Bradley Effect in this contest -- voters told pollsters that they weren't about to vote for that rascal Ted Stevens, when in fact they were perfectly happy to. Convicted felons are the new black, it would seem.
The problem with this theory is that the polling failures in Alaska weren't unique to Stevens. They also applied to the presidential race, as well as Alaska's at-large House seat. In each case, the Republican outperformed his pre-election polling by margins ranging from 12 to 14 points:
Contest Projection Result DeltaThere are three plausible explanations I can think of to explain this discrepancy. The first and most likely is that the Democratic vote became complacent and did not bother to turn out. The outcome of the presidential contest was not going to be close in Alaska, and Barack Obama's victory in the Electoral College was apparent as of about 4 PM local time. Begich supporters, moreover, may have looked at the polls and concluded that their candidate was far enough ahead that they didn't have to bother to vote. Meanwhile, the Republican base was going to turn out no matter what because of their enthusiasm for Sarah Palin. There seems to be a sort of danger zone at about 10 points wherein a candidate is far enough ahead that many of his supporters assume the race is in the bag, but not so far ahead that he is immune to poor turnout (a similar dynamic affected then-Governor Jim Blanchard of Michigan in his 1990 race against John Engler).
AL-ALL Berkowitz +6.4 (i) Young +7.7 GOP +14.1
AL-Sen Begich +12.9 (ii) Stevens +1.5 GOP +14.4
AL-Pres McCain +13.9 (iii) McCain +25.3 GOP +12.4
(i) Pollster.com Trend Estimate
(ii) FiveThirtyEight Polling Average
(iii) FiveThirtyEight Trend-Adjusted Estimate
The second possibility is that a substantial percentage of the Democratic vote is tied up in the early and absentee ballots that have yet to be counted. We know that Barack Obama overperformed among early voters in many states, and Alaska may be no exception. (Although, I would guess that the absentee vote is predominately rural, whereas Begich's base is in Anchorage).
The third possibility is that a lot of those "questionable" ballots are Democratic ones, and that there have been irregularities in the voting tally. Although this is the least likely possibility, Alaska is a provincial state with some history of corruption, and Democrats ought to be making sure that too many of their ballots haven't been disqualified.
Site Problems
@ 8:40 PM
Some of you may be experiencing problems with certain of our images loading ... this is a known issue and we are working with the nice folks at Flickr to resolve it. We appreciate your patience in the meantime.
The Popular Vote
@ 5:06 PM
Right now, Barack Obama has 63.7 million popular votes to John McCain's 56.3 million, whereas third party candidates have roughly a collective 1.6 million. That works out to 52.4 percent of the vote for Obama and 46.3 percent for McCain ... conspicuously close to our pre-election estimates of 52.3 percent for Obama and 46.2 percent for McCain.
I went through and tried to estimate where the outstanding votes are, by simply extrapolating outward from the current results in each state that has missing precincts. This is fairly crude, obviously ... in Oregon, for instance, a disproportionate amount of the uncounted vote is in Portland, so Obama will probably perform better than these numbers. Nevertheless, here are the numbers of votes I estimate to be outstanding in each state:
There are also provisional and absentee ballots to be counted in many states ... the former will tend to favor Obama, the latter McCain. Total turnout should be somewhere in the 125-130 million range, actually not that much higher than 122 million that turned out in 2004, but still very impressive by modern standards.
I went through and tried to estimate where the outstanding votes are, by simply extrapolating outward from the current results in each state that has missing precincts. This is fairly crude, obviously ... in Oregon, for instance, a disproportionate amount of the uncounted vote is in Portland, so Obama will probably perform better than these numbers. Nevertheless, here are the numbers of votes I estimate to be outstanding in each state:
State Obama McCain
Washington 695,268 499,804
Oregon 310,503 238,511
California 191,120 115,622
Colorado 96,463 84,083
Ohio 54,438 50,229
New York 44,014 25,994
Florida 41,451 39,482
Maine 33,925 23,641
Illinois 33,253 19,938
Pennsylvania 32,170 26,102
New Hampshire 30,948 25,299
New Jersey 20,949 15,565
Connecticut 19,262 12,373
Massachusetts 19,093 11,152
Georgia 18,295 20,428
Virginia 18,106 16,539
Maryland 14,234 8,821
Indiana 13,811 13,546
Arizona 8,602 10,231
Arkansas 8,516 12,894
South Carolina 8,510 10,189
Alabama 8,197 12,765
Vermont 6,247 2,951
Mississippi 5,231 6,914
Nebraska 3,191 4,439
Alaska 812 1,377
TOTAL 1,772,938 1,342,580So, roughly another 1.8 million votes for Obama and 1.3 million for McCain ... most of the "missing" votes are in strong Obama states. That should get Obama's margin in the popular vote up to about 6.3 points, or a net of around 7.85 million votes.There are also provisional and absentee ballots to be counted in many states ... the former will tend to favor Obama, the latter McCain. Total turnout should be somewhere in the 125-130 million range, actually not that much higher than 122 million that turned out in 2004, but still very impressive by modern standards.
Chicago, The Day After
@ 3:47 PM
I'll be honest, it's a little hard to write today. I suspect a lot of you may be feeling the same complex set of emotions at the end of a political season so seismic that most of us will remember it as long as we live. We will tell our children and grandchildren what we saw and felt.
There are a million post-mortems in the data to discuss, and we will love bringing that to you. But it's a day of happy and exhausted stupor, and of personal post-mortems. Brett and I didn't leave Grant Park until past 2 am, and didn't wind up having so much as a single beer (to be remedied tonight in Chicago with one Mr. Nate Silver). Instead we passed out, woke up dazed, and stumbled to a coffee shop. 14,211 miles is a lot of driving, and our bodies crave regular beds.
We suspect we're not alone. Right now, organizers, full-time volunteers, campaign staff, and everyone else who gave single-minded effort toward November 4 are waking up and saying to themselves and each other, "what do I do with myself?" Their cars are messes, their rooms disaster zones, and they've been cut off from friends and family for God knows how long.
This was by far the longest and biggest election season in US history, and there is so much left to process. The elation that Democrats feel is mixed with the hangover of carrying so much emotional electricity in the body for so long. Its discharge is necessarily going to leave an exhaustion behind.
We feel it too. There will be moments in the coming days, randomly standing in line at the grocery store, driving down the street in contemplation, the sight of a door you knocked, catching a certain song, a glimpse of Chuck Todd, hearing someone tell a story... where these emotions will just come bursting through, the enormity of it all. Just think of how much effort went into this. How much sacrifice. How many things had to go right. How many people had to want it so badly, and how the masterpiece of a campaign structure that David Plouffe and cohorts engineered allowed all that effort to be channeled into the right places to maximize efficiency.
More than anything else, this experience was shared. I think I can safely speak for Nate and Brett when I say we loved sharing this year with you, our readers. We're determined to continue to provide innovative political analysis in the coming weeks, months, and years. This remains a labor of love. Thanks from us to you.
There are a million post-mortems in the data to discuss, and we will love bringing that to you. But it's a day of happy and exhausted stupor, and of personal post-mortems. Brett and I didn't leave Grant Park until past 2 am, and didn't wind up having so much as a single beer (to be remedied tonight in Chicago with one Mr. Nate Silver). Instead we passed out, woke up dazed, and stumbled to a coffee shop. 14,211 miles is a lot of driving, and our bodies crave regular beds.
We suspect we're not alone. Right now, organizers, full-time volunteers, campaign staff, and everyone else who gave single-minded effort toward November 4 are waking up and saying to themselves and each other, "what do I do with myself?" Their cars are messes, their rooms disaster zones, and they've been cut off from friends and family for God knows how long.
This was by far the longest and biggest election season in US history, and there is so much left to process. The elation that Democrats feel is mixed with the hangover of carrying so much emotional electricity in the body for so long. Its discharge is necessarily going to leave an exhaustion behind.
We feel it too. There will be moments in the coming days, randomly standing in line at the grocery store, driving down the street in contemplation, the sight of a door you knocked, catching a certain song, a glimpse of Chuck Todd, hearing someone tell a story... where these emotions will just come bursting through, the enormity of it all. Just think of how much effort went into this. How much sacrifice. How many things had to go right. How many people had to want it so badly, and how the masterpiece of a campaign structure that David Plouffe and cohorts engineered allowed all that effort to be channeled into the right places to maximize efficiency.
More than anything else, this experience was shared. I think I can safely speak for Nate and Brett when I say we loved sharing this year with you, our readers. We're determined to continue to provide innovative political analysis in the coming weeks, months, and years. This remains a labor of love. Thanks from us to you.
Georgia Senate Race Headed For Runoff
@ 12:38 PM
It appears that the late ballots did, after all, bring incumbent Republican Saxby Chambliss under 50% in his race against Jim Martin, and so a special election will be held December 2, four weeks after the yesterday's election day.
In special elections, turnout is generally way down from general elections. It becomes much more about base motivation, organization, and GOTV. So, although Jim Martin appears to have been behind by a handful of points last night, don't assume he can't win a special election, even if the polls show him behind in every release.
As we said last night, we've been getting emails from organizers who had already purchased their plane tickets to come down to Georgia. It won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless, and Democrats will have the rallying cry of "Remember Max Cleland!" Chambliss defeated Cleland in 2002 after airing a notorious ad that tied war hero Cleland to Osama bin Laden.
Keep an eye on this race, especially for the influx of organizing.
In special elections, turnout is generally way down from general elections. It becomes much more about base motivation, organization, and GOTV. So, although Jim Martin appears to have been behind by a handful of points last night, don't assume he can't win a special election, even if the polls show him behind in every release.
As we said last night, we've been getting emails from organizers who had already purchased their plane tickets to come down to Georgia. It won't be for a 60th seat, but it will be a seat nonetheless, and Democrats will have the rallying cry of "Remember Max Cleland!" Chambliss defeated Cleland in 2002 after airing a notorious ad that tied war hero Cleland to Osama bin Laden.
Keep an eye on this race, especially for the influx of organizing.
In Nation's Capital, Pandemonium After Obama Victory
@ 11:40 AM
Washington, DC -- One of the things about the experience of covering election night from inside the bubble of a TV studio is that one becomes slightly paranoid that the entire event has been staged for the cameras: a cruel Truman Show kind of experiment, the illusion to be broken only once one leaves the premises and is interrupted by a passerby saying, "No, silly, Obama didn't carry Ohio! And they're having a recount again in Florida!"
What I actually found upon leaving the studio, however, was a spontaneous display of joy in the Nation's Capital. Mere blocks from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, in a buttoned-down section of America's only remaining buttoned-downed town, horns were honking in a ticker-tape stream until three in the morning, and strangers black, white and otherwise were hooting and hollering and giving one another thumbs-ups and high-fives as they passed each other on the street.
There was no sense of anger, or rivalry, no sense that the enemy had been vanquished. There was, rather, a tremendous sense of empowerment in the notion that someone more like them was going to take up residence down the street: someone younger, someone blacker, someone poorer, someone who knew that the majesty of America exists not just in the tranquility of its small towns but also in the bustle of its cities.
I don't know what this ultimately means for the country. But good luck finding a newspaper this morning.
What I actually found upon leaving the studio, however, was a spontaneous display of joy in the Nation's Capital. Mere blocks from the White House on Pennsylvania Avenue, in a buttoned-down section of America's only remaining buttoned-downed town, horns were honking in a ticker-tape stream until three in the morning, and strangers black, white and otherwise were hooting and hollering and giving one another thumbs-ups and high-fives as they passed each other on the street.
There was no sense of anger, or rivalry, no sense that the enemy had been vanquished. There was, rather, a tremendous sense of empowerment in the notion that someone more like them was going to take up residence down the street: someone younger, someone blacker, someone poorer, someone who knew that the majesty of America exists not just in the tranquility of its small towns but also in the bustle of its cities.
I don't know what this ultimately means for the country. But good luck finding a newspaper this morning.
Franken Pulls Ahead; Georgia Is Screwy; Omaha Call Premature
@ 3:11 AM
We deleted the Omaha thread because the Secretary of State hadn't finished updating the pdf. My bad. Neither Obama nor McCain has won Nebraska's 2d district. It's extremely close.
Al Franken has pulled ahead in Minnesota.
Some very weird things are going on in Georgia, as the total vote is much, much lower than expected. Some speculation has the early vote not being counted, which would strongly suggest that Saxby Chambliss will have to face a runoff in four weeks.
If Franken holds on, if Jeff Merkley in Oregon can win (Multnomah is the big Portland Democratic engine and is largely outstanding), then it is increasingly likely that the Dems will converge on Georgia for the next four weeks to try to win the 60th Senate seat.
Al Franken has pulled ahead in Minnesota.
Some very weird things are going on in Georgia, as the total vote is much, much lower than expected. Some speculation has the early vote not being counted, which would strongly suggest that Saxby Chambliss will have to face a runoff in four weeks.
If Franken holds on, if Jeff Merkley in Oregon can win (Multnomah is the big Portland Democratic engine and is largely outstanding), then it is increasingly likely that the Dems will converge on Georgia for the next four weeks to try to win the 60th Senate seat.
Dems Gain One Governor's Chair
@ 2:53 AM
Jay Nixon (D) wins Missouri. Bev Perdue (D) won North Carolina narrowly, keeping the governor's seat Democratic.
Brian Schweitzer crushes Roy Brown in Montana.
No real surprises in the Governor's races.
Brian Schweitzer crushes Roy Brown in Montana.
No real surprises in the Governor's races.
Barack Obama Crushed John McCain in Nevada
@ 2:42 AM
John Kerry took Clark County by roughly 36,500 votes in 2004, and Barack Obama took it by 123,000 votes and won by 20% there. In Washoe County, Obama was on his way to another crushing victory.
Overall, Obama carried Nevada by a crushing double digit win.
Democrat Dina Titus knocked off incumbent House Republican Jon Porter in NV-03, certainly involving Obama coattails. Jill Derby's race was less certain, with incumbent Dean Heller holding a six point lead but not called.
It wasn't even close in the Nate Silver State.
Overall, Obama carried Nevada by a crushing double digit win.
Democrat Dina Titus knocked off incumbent House Republican Jon Porter in NV-03, certainly involving Obama coattails. Jill Derby's race was less certain, with incumbent Dean Heller holding a six point lead but not called.
It wasn't even close in the Nate Silver State.
Minnesota Senate Update; Plus Chambliss Barely Over 50%
@ 2:25 AM
Al Franken is roughly 3,000 votes down with 90% in, but the vast majority of the remaining numbers are in Hennepin County, where Minneapolis sits. With 22% of precincts left to report, that would be roughly 137,000 votes if the proportions stayed the same in the precincts (not guaranteed). With Franken winning Hennepin by 17 points, that would seem to be well more than enough to pass Coleman, though we caution we don't know which precincts are in within Hennepin, and which are outstanding.
If Franken can win that seat, Democrats would have 58 seats with Jeff Merkley's Oregon race outstanding against incumbent Gordon Smith. Saxby Chambliss is at 50.3% in Georgia. If it were a simple plurality win, the race would have been called long ago. But if Chambliss cannot get to 50%, watch out for a month of drama in the Peach State.
If Franken can win that seat, Democrats would have 58 seats with Jeff Merkley's Oregon race outstanding against incumbent Gordon Smith. Saxby Chambliss is at 50.3% in Georgia. If it were a simple plurality win, the race would have been called long ago. But if Chambliss cannot get to 50%, watch out for a month of drama in the Peach State.
Barack Obama Wins Indiana
@ 2:16 AM
For the first time since Lyndon Johnson in 1964, Indiana is in the Democratic column.
The polls told us McCain would barely win. The ground game told us Obama would flip it.
Just for kicks:
The polls told us McCain would barely win. The ground game told us Obama would flip it.
Just for kicks:
More Updates on MT, MO, NC, IN
@ 1:34 AM
Montana: Gallatin, where Bozeman is, has 0% reporting. That county should favor McCain. McCain appears to be narrowly holding Yellowstone, where Billings is. But Montana is ultratight and will go late.
Missouri: Obama trails by roughly 12,500 votes with 96% in. 88% is reporting in Jackson (heavy Democratic) and St. Louis County is not all in, with Obama leading it by 17 points and 93% reporting. Obama may pull this out, but it'll be exceptionally close.
North Carolina: Obama will probably hold on here. The North Carolina Board of Elections site has Obama up 11,000 or so with 100 of 100 counties reporting. But the nets haven't called it. This is probably the best bet of the four -- the Tarheel State going blue for Barack Obama.
Indiana: The outstanding vote is in Lake, Jasper and Allen. Jasper is more pronounced McCain right now, at 59-40. But the county is very small, and 72% precincts reporting. Allen is narrowly McCain, and not anywhere close enough to flip the roughly 23,000 votes by which Obama leads. Lake, a hugely Democratic county, still has a few precincts out.
We always had a good feeling about Indiana when we saw it in our travels. This was a state where Obama had the ground game all to himself. With us predicting a slight win for McCain in the state, but no ground game taken into effect, and with a late minute canvassing push from FiveThirtyEight in Gary, Indiana looks like it'll go Obama.
Canvassers in Gary, today:
A Few Notes From the National Exit Poll
@ 1:07 AM
African-American turnout share increased from 11 percent to 13 percent. That doesn't sound like much, but it's about a 20 percent jump among a population that already did turn out in pretty decent numbers. Turnout among registered black voters must have been near universal.
Youth turnout up a point. Latino turnout not up.
Voters who decided late broke about evenly between the two candidates. No evidence of a Bradley Effect -- none whatsoever.
Obama lost whites making less than $50,000 a year -- but by only 4 points. The bigger differences were along educational lines; he lost no-college whites by 18 points.
40 percent of the electorate identified itself as Democrat, 32 percent Republican, roughly in line with the pollster consensus.
The Obama campaign contacted about 50 percent more voters than the McCain campaign.
Obama won union members 61-38.
Obama won 83 percent of Clinton voters.
See here for more.
Youth turnout up a point. Latino turnout not up.
Voters who decided late broke about evenly between the two candidates. No evidence of a Bradley Effect -- none whatsoever.
Obama lost whites making less than $50,000 a year -- but by only 4 points. The bigger differences were along educational lines; he lost no-college whites by 18 points.
40 percent of the electorate identified itself as Democrat, 32 percent Republican, roughly in line with the pollster consensus.
The Obama campaign contacted about 50 percent more voters than the McCain campaign.
Obama won union members 61-38.
Obama won 83 percent of Clinton voters.
See here for more.
Outstanding States
@ 12:41 AM
My guess is that Obama is the slight favorite to win all four (well, not Alaska), but in order from most certain to least certain...
1. Indiana. All those volunteers in Gary may have made the difference.
2. North Carolina. It's clooooooose but Obama has a small lead and there's just not much vote left out there to count.
3. Montana. The Obama campaign was vewwy vewwy quietly feeling optimistic about this state, and holding onto a small lead with about half of the vote in.
4. Missouri. Looks like Obama's got plenty of votes left in St. Louis, but I haven't done the math.
1. Indiana. All those volunteers in Gary may have made the difference.
2. North Carolina. It's clooooooose but Obama has a small lead and there's just not much vote left out there to count.
3. Montana. The Obama campaign was vewwy vewwy quietly feeling optimistic about this state, and holding onto a small lead with about half of the vote in.
4. Missouri. Looks like Obama's got plenty of votes left in St. Louis, but I haven't done the math.
11.04.2008
What's Left - Senate Version
@ 11:38 PM
Mark Udall wins easily in Colorado. Mark Begich will defeat the convicted tubes guy. Landrieu has escaped in Louisiana. That's 57 seats.
Minnesota, Oregon, Mississippi and Georgia have not been called. Democrats will need to win three of those to get to 60 votes, and all four to get to a Lieberman-proof, filibuster-proof majority.
Now, let's not kid ourselves. When the Obama speech happens, it's gonna be all Nate for a bit. I'm joining Brett outside.
Minnesota, Oregon, Mississippi and Georgia have not been called. Democrats will need to win three of those to get to 60 votes, and all four to get to a Lieberman-proof, filibuster-proof majority.
Now, let's not kid ourselves. When the Obama speech happens, it's gonna be all Nate for a bit. I'm joining Brett outside.
Wow
@ 11:32 PM
It hasn't really sunk in yet: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. A newsroom may be one of the worst places on earth to appreciate this sort of moment. But what a moment for our country. Crowds are mobbing the White House (in a good way), reportedly.
McCain's Concession Speech
@ 11:29 PM
Gracious.
Much to say about the campaign in the post-mortem days to come, and indeed there is some angry and ugly yelling going on in the crowd that can be laid to the campaign's overall tenor, but McCain's speech is touching and gracious.
Palin looks near tears.
Much to say about the campaign in the post-mortem days to come, and indeed there is some angry and ugly yelling going on in the crowd that can be laid to the campaign's overall tenor, but McCain's speech is touching and gracious.
Palin looks near tears.
Barack Obama President-Elect of the United States
@ 11:00 PM
Barack Obama passes 270 electoral votes, defeats John McCain, and will become 44th President of the United States.
A breathtaking moment.
A breathtaking moment.
AP Calls Florida for Obama
@ 10:59 PM
Have to say, this is one state where I thought McCain might outperform his polls.
Obama Wins Virginia
@ 10:58 PM
The Commonwealth delivered for Barack Obama.
Crowd at Grant Park goes berserk.
This is moments from being called.
Crowd at Grant Park goes berserk.
This is moments from being called.
Musgrave in Colorado Getting Whupped
@ 10:55 PM
Marilyn Musgrave, who penned the amendment banning gay marriage, is getting smoked in her re-election bid for Colorado's 4th House seat.
Virgil Goode is in trouble in VA-05, where Brett and I had some incredible hospitality on our 14,211 mile trip across America.
Virgil Goode is in trouble in VA-05, where Brett and I had some incredible hospitality on our 14,211 mile trip across America.
3??
@ 10:22 PM
The networks, rightly, are being conservative about their calls this year, but the outstanding vote certainly looks to be an Obama-friendly one in Virginia and to a lesser extent Indiana.
The Drama of the Night is Now the Senate
@ 10:19 PM
Four Democratic pickups have been called: Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), Udall (NM) and Hagan (NC). That gets Democrats 55.
Mark Udall in Colorado looks very strong. Ted Stevens, convicted felon, will lose. Jeff Merkley is heavily favored in the Oregon race, but those results aren't in yet.
Al Franken leads Norm Coleman in very early returns. However, Mary Landrieu looks like she's in a tight race in Louisiana, with a small lead over John Kennedy there. Roger Wicker leads Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi.
If Udall, Begich, Merkley and Franken can win their races, and Mary Landrieu hold hers, Democrats will sit at 59 Senate seats. Then Democrats need to either keep Chambliss under 50% (some big Democratic counties are outstanding) or somehow pull off the Musgrove-Wicker upset, another race that has not been called.
Before I forget:
How come Joe the Plumber didn't work? That was such a nifty idea.
Mark Udall in Colorado looks very strong. Ted Stevens, convicted felon, will lose. Jeff Merkley is heavily favored in the Oregon race, but those results aren't in yet.
Al Franken leads Norm Coleman in very early returns. However, Mary Landrieu looks like she's in a tight race in Louisiana, with a small lead over John Kennedy there. Roger Wicker leads Ronnie Musgrove in Mississippi.
If Udall, Begich, Merkley and Franken can win their races, and Mary Landrieu hold hers, Democrats will sit at 59 Senate seats. Then Democrats need to either keep Chambliss under 50% (some big Democratic counties are outstanding) or somehow pull off the Musgrove-Wicker upset, another race that has not been called.
Before I forget:
How come Joe the Plumber didn't work? That was such a nifty idea.
Republicans Likely to Hold MS-Sen, KY-Sen
@ 10:15 PM
It doesn't look to me like there's a big enough gap between Bruce Lunsford's vote and Obama's, or Roger Wicker's and Obama's, to give those states to the Democrats in the Senate.
In Georgia, though, Jim Martin is running about 5 points ahead of Obama. Hang in there for the ATL vote.
In Georgia, though, Jim Martin is running about 5 points ahead of Obama. Hang in there for the ATL vote.
Chris Shays Loses in Connecticut
@ 10:04 PM
All of New England's House seats are now blue.
Mitch McConnell held on in Kentucky, which we would have posted in real time, but...
Mitch McConnell held on in Kentucky, which we would have posted in real time, but...
Barack Obama Wins Ohio
@ 9:27 PM
Barack Obama wins Ohio. All call. We aren't "calling" the overall race yet, but that's ballgame, folks. He will be the next president of the United States.
Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.
The roar goes up in Grant Park. They know.
(Sorry, folks, more blogger.com overwhelm. We'd love to publish these sorts of things in real time.)
Since I might only get one bite at the apple if one of these infinite "Publish Post" clicks ultimately goes through, we're hearing from Rocky Mountain News that Colorado is looking like a big Obama win.
Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States.
The roar goes up in Grant Park. They know.
(Sorry, folks, more blogger.com overwhelm. We'd love to publish these sorts of things in real time.)
Since I might only get one bite at the apple if one of these infinite "Publish Post" clicks ultimately goes through, we're hearing from Rocky Mountain News that Colorado is looking like a big Obama win.
Tom Udall Wins New Mexico Senate Seat
@ 9:04 PM
The fourth Democratic Senate pickup. Mark Udall in Colorado should follow shortly. Heavily favored Jeff Merkley and Mark Begich would get Democrats to 58 seats.
Things are getting juiced up in Grant Park.
Things are getting juiced up in Grant Park.
Want to See Something Funny?
@ 8:58 PM
Someone sent me an email link from four years ago on Election Night, when Barack Obama won his United States Senate seat in Illinois.
Check out the first comment. Not "poblano." "PocketNines." Now that's good times.
(For the uninitiated, Nate = "poblano," Sean = "PocketNines.")
Now here we go to the top of the hour. Another set of polls to close.
Check out the first comment. Not "poblano." "PocketNines." Now that's good times.
(For the uninitiated, Nate = "poblano," Sean = "PocketNines.")
Now here we go to the top of the hour. Another set of polls to close.
The Georgia Senate Race
@ 8:55 PM
If neither candidate gets to 50% (there is a third-party candidate), then there will be a runoff on December 2. With 20.2% of the results in, Saxby Chambliss, the incumbent Republican, is holding 59.4% of the vote. Remember, Fulton and DeKalb, particularly heavily Democratic DeKalb, are often last to report.
Chambliss needs to hold 50%. If there is a special election, those races heavily favor the energized. With Bruce Lundsford neck and neck with Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (Arjun Jaikuma is pessimistic about Lundsford's chances based on which counties have come in), Dems may well need this seat to reach 60.
We've already had emails from Obama organizers from around the country who have purchased their tickets to Georgia to win the 60th seat. That's energy. If Chambliss doesn't reach 50, FiveThirtyEight is getting back in the car and heading for Georgia.
Chambliss needs to hold 50%. If there is a special election, those races heavily favor the energized. With Bruce Lundsford neck and neck with Mitch McConnell in Kentucky (Arjun Jaikuma is pessimistic about Lundsford's chances based on which counties have come in), Dems may well need this seat to reach 60.
We've already had emails from Obama organizers from around the country who have purchased their tickets to Georgia to win the 60th seat. That's energy. If Chambliss doesn't reach 50, FiveThirtyEight is getting back in the car and heading for Georgia.
Virginia...
@ 8:38 PM
Obama is outperforming Kerry by a 12-15 point net in the Eastern half of the Virginia.
In the Western half, he's not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties.
I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close. Donnie Fowler thinks the Obama people have more reason to be excited about Florida right now.
In the Western half, he's not performing much better than Kerry and is actually underperfoming him in some counties.
I think that equation works out favorably for Obama on balance, though Virginia will be fairly close. Donnie Fowler thinks the Obama people have more reason to be excited about Florida right now.
Meta
@ 8:32 PM
So far, the night has gone pretty much how you might expect it to based on the pre-election polls
Grant Park Woes
@ 8:27 PM
Barack Obama wins New Hampshire, per CNN.
It doesn't look like they're letting Brett anywhere near the stage. All that expensive camera equipment acquired just for the day...
Barack, throw the gifted young man a bone, let him come take your picture.
You too, Joe. Literally.
It doesn't look like they're letting Brett anywhere near the stage. All that expensive camera equipment acquired just for the day...
Barack, throw the gifted young man a bone, let him come take your picture.
You too, Joe. Literally.
AP Calls New Hampshire
@ 8:26 PM
The speed of the call in the Granite State is the best evidence yet that Obama is about to become the next president.
Hagan Beats Dole in North Carolina
@ 8:22 PM
Kay Hagan takes another Senate seat for Dems.
Score one for the Godless American Sunday school teacher.
This is the third Democratic Senate pickup of the night; Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), and Hagan (NC).
Nate says blogger is working on it; seems to be going faster.
Score one for the Godless American Sunday school teacher.
This is the third Democratic Senate pickup of the night; Warner (VA), Shaheen (NH), and Hagan (NC).
Nate says blogger is working on it; seems to be going faster.
8:15 PM Update
@ 8:16 PM
We're not calling Pennsylvania yet, but several other networks are. In all likelihood, Obama needs to flip just one of the big red states out there to take this thing.
Indiana II...
@ 7:31 PM
Donnie Fowler, who is on HDNet with me and knows Indiana like the back of his hand, thinks Obama's strong performance in Vigo County is a good sign for him.
Ground Game, and What to Expect
@ 6:58 PM
[Apologies in advance -- blogger.com looks likely to about to pull an epic fail tonight on our most important night. I've been clicking publish since before 6pm central on one post, and the rest of the internet is lightning speed. Just looking at results and fruitlessly clicking "publish." We're here and trying to publish; just can't. They can't handle the traffic. Sorry everybody.]
In our final projection based on all the polling data, we project John McCain to win Indiana by 1.1%.
Today, Brett and I canvassed in Gary, Indiana. We said we weren't done with Lake County when we did our Tippecanoe County report for our On the Road series. And as we've chronicled across the country for the past eight weeks, ground game is important. It's so important that Barack Obama banked a major portion of his strategy on it. And all campaigns generally do some field work; they wouldn't do it if it weren't worth some points.
When one ground game is much, much better than the other candidate's, it is said, one candidate may gain up to five points against accurate polling. Read that again. Against accurate polling. Accurate polling of voter intention can be superseded when one campaign gets out its vote.
There is no way to integrate superior ground game into a projection. Many have asked, but even a moment thinking about it should reveal that this would be dependent on campaigns offering full disclosure of all their contacts and how made (robocalls are terrible, peer-to-peer is an extremely high quality contact). That will never happen.
So we went out on the road for this very reason. We wanted to deliver to you a high-quality, fact-based assessment of what these campaigns were doing on the ground. For eight weeks, we've told you how one campaign (Obama's) was organizing with a breadth and depth unheard of in presidential politics. And we showed you the empty McCain offices, even as the McCain press flacks tell reporters who haven't gone out on the trail and seen for themselves that the contact rates are "higher than four years ago." That's one of those "lies, damn lies and statistics" comments, where a robocall is equated to a peer-to-peer contact. We flat out didn't see it.
So all of this is to say, if you start seeing Barack Obama overperform the polling projections in a lot of states, and a state like Indiana potentially flip blue, keep this in mind. Those polls could have been right. And the results could still be different.
[UPDATE]: We're hearing crazy numbers out of Lake County from some of our sources, things like 197-2 in favor of Obama on some machines.]
In our final projection based on all the polling data, we project John McCain to win Indiana by 1.1%.
Today, Brett and I canvassed in Gary, Indiana. We said we weren't done with Lake County when we did our Tippecanoe County report for our On the Road series. And as we've chronicled across the country for the past eight weeks, ground game is important. It's so important that Barack Obama banked a major portion of his strategy on it. And all campaigns generally do some field work; they wouldn't do it if it weren't worth some points.
When one ground game is much, much better than the other candidate's, it is said, one candidate may gain up to five points against accurate polling. Read that again. Against accurate polling. Accurate polling of voter intention can be superseded when one campaign gets out its vote.
There is no way to integrate superior ground game into a projection. Many have asked, but even a moment thinking about it should reveal that this would be dependent on campaigns offering full disclosure of all their contacts and how made (robocalls are terrible, peer-to-peer is an extremely high quality contact). That will never happen.
So we went out on the road for this very reason. We wanted to deliver to you a high-quality, fact-based assessment of what these campaigns were doing on the ground. For eight weeks, we've told you how one campaign (Obama's) was organizing with a breadth and depth unheard of in presidential politics. And we showed you the empty McCain offices, even as the McCain press flacks tell reporters who haven't gone out on the trail and seen for themselves that the contact rates are "higher than four years ago." That's one of those "lies, damn lies and statistics" comments, where a robocall is equated to a peer-to-peer contact. We flat out didn't see it.
So all of this is to say, if you start seeing Barack Obama overperform the polling projections in a lot of states, and a state like Indiana potentially flip blue, keep this in mind. Those polls could have been right. And the results could still be different.
[UPDATE]: We're hearing crazy numbers out of Lake County from some of our sources, things like 197-2 in favor of Obama on some machines.]
Indiana...
@ 6:45 PM
Just looking at some of the places where we have results in so far. Obama is substantially outperforming Kerry -- which is what he needs to do to win the state, of course, but the differences are pretty substantial.
Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%
Steuben: Kerry 34%, Obama 42%
DeKalb: Kerry 31%, Obama 38%
Knox: Kerry 36%, Obama 54%
Marshall: Kerry 31%, Obama 50%
Election Night Thread, 6:00 PM
@ 5:55 PM
This is an example of our set-up for tonight. I'm going to be categorizing the states into five categories as we progress through the evening:
Called -- states actually called by the Associated Press
Safe -- states that look almost completely safe, e.g. a 99.5% probability of victory or higher.
Likely -- somewhere in the 80% certainty range
Lean -- 60-80%
Toss-Up -- No clear favorite
...what we're interested in is when the Called + Safe states total 270 for one or another of the candidates.
I may change the characterization of states at any time for any reason -- if, for instance, we find that Obama is underperforming among Hispanic voters in Texas, that might lead me to change my characterization of New Mexico.
Anyway, you guys should get the basic idea. We're busy here!
Called -- states actually called by the Associated Press
Safe -- states that look almost completely safe, e.g. a 99.5% probability of victory or higher.
Likely -- somewhere in the 80% certainty range
Lean -- 60-80%
Toss-Up -- No clear favorite
...what we're interested in is when the Called + Safe states total 270 for one or another of the candidates.
I may change the characterization of states at any time for any reason -- if, for instance, we find that Obama is underperforming among Hispanic voters in Texas, that might lead me to change my characterization of New Mexico.
Anyway, you guys should get the basic idea. We're busy here!
How Early Voting Changed the Game in 2008
@ 4:51 PM
Michael McDonald’s great early voting website has the totals.
31,268,357 voters have cast votes early in America, which represents 25.3% of the total of all ballots cast in 2004. Nobody doubts we are headed for an absolute record turnout in this election.
22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004, and if that number held true for this election, then 138,970,474 Americans will end up casting ballots.
Here are battleground states with early voting, followed by the percentage of the total 2004 vote that represents:
CO: 1,704,280; 79.3% of 2004
FL: 4,377,774; 57.3% of 2004
GA: 2,020,829; 60.9% of 2004
IA: 481,179; 31.6% of 2004
IN: 668,868; 26.6% of 2004
MT: 184,632; 40.5% of 2004
NM: 192,229; 73.2% of 2004
NC: 2,623,838; 73.9% of 2004
NV: 561,776; 67.6% of 2004
ND: 76,496; 24.2% of 2004
OH: 1,456,364; 25.2% of 2004
VA: 465,962; 14.5% of 2004
WV: 166,353; 21.6% of 2004
The numbers for Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Florida are eye-popping, all of these states have had more than half the vote from 2004 in. All of these states were won by George Bush, and they account for 74 electoral votes. We know that Barack Obama has placed an overwhelming ground force in place to generate early voting, and we can be confident that the early voters in these states are banking a large lead for Barack Obama.
In Georgia, for example, African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.
In Nevada, Clark County has seen a 21.4-point gap between Dems and Reps. Washoe, which turned blue due to the tremendous organizing effort, has a 16.8-point gap between Dems and Reps.
In New Mexico, the Dem-Rep gap is 20 points in early voting. In West Virginia, 24 points. In Iowa, 18 points. In Florida, where Republicans held a 2.8% edge in 2004 early and absentee voting, Dems now hold an 8.3% edge.
Only in Colorado is the gap somewhat closer, with Dems holding a mere 1.8% lead in early voting figures. However, unaffiliateds/independents have produced a fairly high 26.4% portion of the early vote, and Obama has dominated the ground game in Colorado to get early voting accomplished; a lot of those undeclared voters are likely Obama-ID'd voters from all the contacts.
Early voting has changed the game this year; every day was election day. Obama's verdict: "Come and catch me, Senator McCain."
*_*
Programming note: Brett and I are in Grant Park and hope to bring you some good photos and a good liveblog of all the day's events. I will be on Rachel Maddow's radio show for a segment this evening to talk about the ground game, so please tune in.
31,268,357 voters have cast votes early in America, which represents 25.3% of the total of all ballots cast in 2004. Nobody doubts we are headed for an absolute record turnout in this election.
22.5% of Americans cast their vote early in 2004, and if that number held true for this election, then 138,970,474 Americans will end up casting ballots.
[Chicago, Dawn]
Here are battleground states with early voting, followed by the percentage of the total 2004 vote that represents:
CO: 1,704,280; 79.3% of 2004
FL: 4,377,774; 57.3% of 2004
GA: 2,020,829; 60.9% of 2004
IA: 481,179; 31.6% of 2004
IN: 668,868; 26.6% of 2004
MT: 184,632; 40.5% of 2004
NM: 192,229; 73.2% of 2004
NC: 2,623,838; 73.9% of 2004
NV: 561,776; 67.6% of 2004
ND: 76,496; 24.2% of 2004
OH: 1,456,364; 25.2% of 2004
VA: 465,962; 14.5% of 2004
WV: 166,353; 21.6% of 2004
The numbers for Colorado, New Mexico, North Carolina, Nevada, Georgia and Florida are eye-popping, all of these states have had more than half the vote from 2004 in. All of these states were won by George Bush, and they account for 74 electoral votes. We know that Barack Obama has placed an overwhelming ground force in place to generate early voting, and we can be confident that the early voters in these states are banking a large lead for Barack Obama.
In Georgia, for example, African-Americans represented 35% of the early vote, and 25% is the historical high. If Georgia winds up with 30% of the vote remaining African-American, Obama wins Georgia.
In Nevada, Clark County has seen a 21.4-point gap between Dems and Reps. Washoe, which turned blue due to the tremendous organizing effort, has a 16.8-point gap between Dems and Reps.
In New Mexico, the Dem-Rep gap is 20 points in early voting. In West Virginia, 24 points. In Iowa, 18 points. In Florida, where Republicans held a 2.8% edge in 2004 early and absentee voting, Dems now hold an 8.3% edge.
Only in Colorado is the gap somewhat closer, with Dems holding a mere 1.8% lead in early voting figures. However, unaffiliateds/independents have produced a fairly high 26.4% portion of the early vote, and Obama has dominated the ground game in Colorado to get early voting accomplished; a lot of those undeclared voters are likely Obama-ID'd voters from all the contacts.
Early voting has changed the game this year; every day was election day. Obama's verdict: "Come and catch me, Senator McCain."
*_*
Programming note: Brett and I are in Grant Park and hope to bring you some good photos and a good liveblog of all the day's events. I will be on Rachel Maddow's radio show for a segment this evening to talk about the ground game, so please tune in.
What Will We Know by 7 PM?
@ 3:20 PM
Andrew Gelman of Columbia University has taken a recent set of our simulations to look at what may happen conditional on the outcomes of the first states to close their polls at 6 and 7 PM. The bottom line? If those states go roughly as expected (meaning, say, an Obama win in Virginia and a close race in Indiana), we can conclude with almost literal 100 percent certainty that Obama will win the election:
Now, what if the vote margin in Virginia, Indiana, Georgia, South Carolina, and Kentucky were to equal the expected -5.7%? We pipe this assumption through our model by calculating, for each of our 10,000 simulations, the average vote margin in these five states, and then restricting our analysis to the subset of simulations for which this vote margin is within 1 percentage point of its expected value (that is, between -6.7% and -4.7%). Out of our 10,000 simulations, 2800 fall in this range; that is, we predict there is a 28% chance that McCain’s average vote margin in these five states will be between 4.7% and 6.7%. What is of more interest is what happens if this occurs. Considering this subset of simulations, Obama’s expected national popular vote margin is +4.7%, his expected electoral vote total is 343, and the conditional probability of an Obama victory is 100%: he wins the electoral college in all 2800 simulations in this condition.Andrew's full paper can be found here. (And don't forget to buy his book).
Today's Polls and Final Election Projection: Obama 349, McCain 189
@ 1:16 PM
It's Tuesday, November 4th, 2008, Election Day in America. The last polls have straggled in, and show little sign of mercy for John McCain. Barack Obama appears poised for a decisive electoral victory.
Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.
We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.
This race appears to have stabilized as of about the time of the second debate in Nashville, Tennessee on October 8th. Since that time, Obama has maintained a national lead of between 6 and 8 points, with little discernible momentum for either candidate. Just as noteworthy is the fact that the number of undecided voters is now very small, representing not much more than 2-3 percent of the electorate. Undecided voters who committed over the past several weeks appear to have broken roughly equally between the two candidates.
Our model forecasts a small third-party vote of between 1 and 2 points total; it is not likely to be a decisive factor in this election except perhaps in Montana, where Ron Paul is on the ballot and may garner 4-5 percent of the vote.
Any forecasting system is only as good as its inputs, and so if the polls are systematically wrong, our projection is subject to error as well. Nevertheless, even as we account for other cycles in which the polling numbers materially missed the national popular vote margin (such as in 1980), a McCain win appears highly unlikely. It is also possible, of course, that the polls are shy in Obama's direction rather than McCain's, in which case a double-digit win is possible.
Nor does McCain appear to have much chance of winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote; in fact, our model thinks that Obama is slightly more likely to do so. McCain diverted many of his resources to Pennsylvania, a state where he narrowed Obama's margins somewhat, but which our model concludes that Obama is now virtually certain to win. This may have allowed Obama to consolidate his margins in other battleground states, particularly Western states like Colorado and Nevada to which McCain has devoted little recent attention.
Thank you for placing your trust in FiveThirtyEight.com over the course of the past several months. We hope that you will join us both on the website and on HDNet tonight, where I'll be providing election coverage for Dan Rather's team. FiveThirtyEight intends to continue to apply our unique approach to politics after the election, and we hope to have several announcements about our future plans in the coming days and weeks.
*** One very quick technical note: I have removed the regression estimate from the final projection for the five states that are the home of either a presidential or vice presidential candidate (Arizona, Alaska, Illinois, Hawaii, Delaware); we have plenty of polling data to look at in these states and the regession model was having difficulty accounting for home-state effects.
Our model projects that Obama will win all states won by John Kerry in 2004, in addition to Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, Ohio, Virginia, Nevada, Florida and North Carolina, while narrowly losing Missouri and Indiana. These states total 353 electoral votes. Our official projection, which looks at these outcomes probabilistically -- for instance, assigns North Carolina's 15 electoral votes to Obama 59 percent of the time -- comes up with an incrementally more conservative projection of 348.6 electoral votes.
We also project Obama to win the popular vote by 6.1 points; his lead is slightly larger than that in the polls now, but our model accounts for the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day.
This race appears to have stabilized as of about the time of the second debate in Nashville, Tennessee on October 8th. Since that time, Obama has maintained a national lead of between 6 and 8 points, with little discernible momentum for either candidate. Just as noteworthy is the fact that the number of undecided voters is now very small, representing not much more than 2-3 percent of the electorate. Undecided voters who committed over the past several weeks appear to have broken roughly equally between the two candidates.
Our model forecasts a small third-party vote of between 1 and 2 points total; it is not likely to be a decisive factor in this election except perhaps in Montana, where Ron Paul is on the ballot and may garner 4-5 percent of the vote.
Any forecasting system is only as good as its inputs, and so if the polls are systematically wrong, our projection is subject to error as well. Nevertheless, even as we account for other cycles in which the polling numbers materially missed the national popular vote margin (such as in 1980), a McCain win appears highly unlikely. It is also possible, of course, that the polls are shy in Obama's direction rather than McCain's, in which case a double-digit win is possible.
Nor does McCain appear to have much chance of winning the Electoral College while losing the popular vote; in fact, our model thinks that Obama is slightly more likely to do so. McCain diverted many of his resources to Pennsylvania, a state where he narrowed Obama's margins somewhat, but which our model concludes that Obama is now virtually certain to win. This may have allowed Obama to consolidate his margins in other battleground states, particularly Western states like Colorado and Nevada to which McCain has devoted little recent attention.
Thank you for placing your trust in FiveThirtyEight.com over the course of the past several months. We hope that you will join us both on the website and on HDNet tonight, where I'll be providing election coverage for Dan Rather's team. FiveThirtyEight intends to continue to apply our unique approach to politics after the election, and we hope to have several announcements about our future plans in the coming days and weeks.
*** One very quick technical note: I have removed the regression estimate from the final projection for the five states that are the home of either a presidential or vice presidential candidate (Arizona, Alaska, Illinois, Hawaii, Delaware); we have plenty of polling data to look at in these states and the regession model was having difficulty accounting for home-state effects.
2,077,765
@ 11:31 AM
Any guesses?
That's the total number of interviews included in all McCain-Obama polls that I have in my database this year.
Final polling update and projections coming very soon.
That's the total number of interviews included in all McCain-Obama polls that I have in my database this year.
Final polling update and projections coming very soon.
Ten Reasons Why You Should Ignore Exit Polls
@ 10:15 AM
Oh, let me count the ways. Almost all of this, by the way, is lifted from Mark Bluemthnal's outstanding Exit Poll FAQ. For the long version, see over there.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries. They overstated Barack Obama's performance by an average of about 7 points.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample -- essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place -- in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore's share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By "late" voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from "first-wave" exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics -- will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? -- the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
1. Exit polls have a much larger intrinsic margin for error than regular polls. This is because of what are known as cluster sampling techniques. Exit polls are not conducted at all precincts, but only at some fraction thereof. Although these precincts are selected at random and are supposed to be reflective of their states as a whole, this introduces another opportunity for error to occur (say, for instance, that a particular precinct has been canvassed especially heavily by one of the campaigns). This makes the margins for error somewhere between 50-90% higher than they would be for comparable telephone surveys.
2. Exit polls have consistently overstated the Democratic share of the vote. Many of you will recall this happening in 2004, when leaked exit polls suggested that John Kerry would have a much better day than he actually had. But this phenomenon was hardly unique to 2004. In 2000, for instance, exit polls had Al Gore winning states like Alabama and Georgia (!). If you go back and watch The War Room, you'll find George Stephanopolous and James Carville gloating over exit polls showing Bill Clinton winning states like Indiana and Texas, which of course he did not win.
3. Exit polls were particularly bad in this year's primaries. They overstated Barack Obama's performance by an average of about 7 points.
4. Exit polls challenge the definition of a random sample. Although the exit polls have theoretically established procedures to collect a random sample -- essentially, having the interviewer approach every nth person who leaves the polling place -- in practice this is hard to execute at a busy polling place, particularly when the pollster may be standing many yards away from the polling place itself because of electioneering laws.
5. Democrats may be more likely to participate in exit polls. Related to items #1 and #4 above, Scott Rasmussen has found that Democrats supporters are more likely to agree to participate in exit polls, probably because they are more enthusiastic about this election.
6. Exit polls may have problems calibrating results from early voting. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, exit polls will attempt account for people who voted before election day in most (although not all) states by means of a random telephone sample of such voters. However, this requires the polling firms to guess at the ratio of early voters to regular ones, and sometimes they do not guess correctly. In Florida in 2000, for instance, there was a significant underestimation of the absentee vote, which that year was a substantially Republican vote, leading to an overestimation of Al Gore's share of the vote, and contributing to the infamous miscall of the state.
7. Exit polls may also miss late voters. By "late" voters I mean persons who come to their polling place in the last couple of hours of the day, after the exit polls are out of the field. Although there is no clear consensus about which types of voters tend to vote later rather than earlier, this adds another way in which the sample may be nonrandom, particularly in precincts with long lines or extended voting hours.
8. "Leaked" exit poll results may not be the genuine article. Sometimes, sources like Matt Drudge and Jim Geraghty have gotten their hands on the actual exit polls collected by the network pools. At other times, they may be reporting data from "first-wave" exit polls, which contain extremely small sample sizes and are not calibrated for their demographics. And at other places on the Internet (though likely not from Gergahty and Drudge, who actually have reasonably good track records), you may see numbers that are completely fabricated.
9. A high-turnout election may make demographic weighting difficult. Just as regular, telephone polls are having difficulty this cycle estimating turnout demographics -- will younger voters and minorities show up in greater numbers? -- the same challenges await exit pollsters. Remember, an exit poll is not a definitive record of what happened at the polling place; it is at best a random sampling.
10. You'll know the actual results soon enough anyway. Have patience, my friends, and consider yourselves lucky: in France, it is illegal to conduct a poll of any kind within 48 hours of the election. But exit polls are really more trouble than they're worth, at least as a predictive tool. An independent panel created by CNN in the wake of the Florida disaster in 2000 recommended that the network completely ignore exit polls when calling particular states. I suggest that you do the same.
FINAL Senate Projection, 11/4: 7-8 Democratic Pickups Likely
@ 9:24 AM
A clear favorite has been established in all but one of the 34 senate races on the ballot today. Although the Democrats remain in as strong a position in the aggregate as they have been all year, their odds of emerging with a 60-seat caucus now appear fairly long -- no better than about 15 percent.
What movement there has been over the past few days has mostly been in North Carolina and Kentucky. In the former race, Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad clearly seems to have backfired, and Kay Hagan has emerged with a 7-point lead in the latest polls from PPP and SurveyUSA. When coupled with the strong Democratic turnout in early voting, Dole will need a miracle to retain her seat.
In Kentucky, on the other hand, polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA suggest Mitch McConnell standing a safe enough distance away from the brink, with leads of 7 and and 8 points, respectively.
So that sets the following scene: Democrats will almost certainly pickup the Republican-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado and New Hampshire, although there is a remote upset possibility in the latter race, where Republicans were pleased with John Sununu's performance in his debates against Jeanne Shaheen. North Carolina and Oregon are also likely to send freshman democrats to the Senate Chamber.
The Republicans are the significant favroites to hold onto their seats in Mississippi and Kentucky, although upsets remain possible there in the case of a Democratic wave. Georgia is a little trickier. Although all polling continues to show Jim Martin a few points behind Saxby Chambliss, Martin can earn a run-off by holding Chambliss under an outright majority of Georgia's votes. I would assign a 50 percent chance to a Chambliss win outright, a 40 percent chance to a run-off, and a 10 percent chance to a Martin win outright.
Finally, in Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively. Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.
What movement there has been over the past few days has mostly been in North Carolina and Kentucky. In the former race, Elizabeth Dole's "Godless" ad clearly seems to have backfired, and Kay Hagan has emerged with a 7-point lead in the latest polls from PPP and SurveyUSA. When coupled with the strong Democratic turnout in early voting, Dole will need a miracle to retain her seat.
In Kentucky, on the other hand, polls from Rasmussen and SurveyUSA suggest Mitch McConnell standing a safe enough distance away from the brink, with leads of 7 and and 8 points, respectively.
So that sets the following scene: Democrats will almost certainly pickup the Republican-held seats in Virginia, New Mexico, Alaska, Colorado and New Hampshire, although there is a remote upset possibility in the latter race, where Republicans were pleased with John Sununu's performance in his debates against Jeanne Shaheen. North Carolina and Oregon are also likely to send freshman democrats to the Senate Chamber.
The Republicans are the significant favroites to hold onto their seats in Mississippi and Kentucky, although upsets remain possible there in the case of a Democratic wave. Georgia is a little trickier. Although all polling continues to show Jim Martin a few points behind Saxby Chambliss, Martin can earn a run-off by holding Chambliss under an outright majority of Georgia's votes. I would assign a 50 percent chance to a Chambliss win outright, a 40 percent chance to a run-off, and a 10 percent chance to a Martin win outright.
Finally, in Minnesota, we are no closer to a resolution than we have been all year, with new polls from the Star Tribune and SurveyUSA showing Al Franken and Norm Coleman in the lead, respectively. Minnesota may be the race to watch today, possibly even exceeding the presidential contest.
Is Dixville Notch Predictive?
@ 12:51 AM
In a word: No. There's no historical relationship between the performances of the two major-party candidates In Dixville Notch and their performances in the rest of New Hampshire -- never mind the rest of the country:
Still, you'd rather be up 15-6 than down, wouldn't you?
Still, you'd rather be up 15-6 than down, wouldn't you?
11.03.2008
Chicago Tomorrow
@ 8:00 PM
“And I swore I’d be in Chicago tomorrow, and made sure of that, taking a bus to Chicago, spending most of my money, and didn’t give a damn, just as long as I’d be in Chicago tomorrow.”
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
Organizers of America,
H-Hour, D-Day is upon you.
After the election, when you can talk, email me your stories, because there's more to say about what you did. [pocket99s@gmail.com]
For the organizers, the volunteers, every damn brave last one of you:
For he to-day who sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
-- photo by Steve Marlowe; Quinn (left), Marty (right)
Organizers of America,
H-Hour, D-Day is upon you.
After the election, when you can talk, email me your stories, because there's more to say about what you did. [pocket99s@gmail.com]
For the organizers, the volunteers, every damn brave last one of you:
That he which hath no stomach to this fight,
Let him depart; his passport shall be made,
And crowns for convoy put into his purse;
We would not die in that man's company
That fears his fellowship to die with us.
This day is call'd the feast of Crispian.
He that outlives this day, and comes safe home,
Will stand a tip-toe when this day is nam'd,
And rouse him at the name of Crispian.
He that shall live this day, and see old age,
Will yearly on the vigil feast his neighbours,
And say 'To-morrow is Saint Crispian.'
Then will he strip his sleeve and show his scars,
And say 'These wounds I had on Crispian's day.'
Old men forget; yet all shall be forgot,
But he'll remember, with advantages,
What feats he did that day. Then shall our names,
Familiar in his mouth as household words-
Harry the King, Bedford and Exeter,
Warwick and Talbot, Salisbury and Gloucester-
Be in their flowing cups freshly rememb'red.
This story shall the good man teach his son;
And Crispin Crispian shall ne'er go by,
From this day to the ending of the world,
But we in it shall be remembered-
We few, we happy few, we band of brothers;
For he to-day that sheds his blood with me
Shall be my brother; be he ne'er so vile,
This day shall gentle his condition;
And gentlemen in England now-a-bed
Shall think themselves accurs'd they were not here,
And hold their manhoods cheap whiles any speaks
That fought with us upon Saint Crispin's day.
-- William Shakespeare, Henry the DXXXVIII
For he to-day who sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.
On the Road: Atlanta, Georgia
@ 7:28 PM
"I got dog-tired beyond Macon and woke up Dean to resume. We got out of the car for air and suddenly both of us were stoned with joy to realize that in the darkness all around us was fragrant green grass and the smell of fresh manure and warm waters. "We're in the South!"
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia. 1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004.
Let that sink in.
"The pullout was greatly exaggerated," began Caroline Adelman, Georgia Communications Director, Obama for America. The pullout, of course, refers to the publicized redistribution of Obama staffers to other states when it appeared the Illinois Senator had no chance to win. Obama's skeleton staff of 53 is at least four times bigger than any other Democratic presidential effort in Georgia's history. Adelman, who's been involved here for the last five elections, estimated for us that even Bill Clinton, who won the state in 1992, only had a dozen staffers.
With 33 offices and 175 separate staging locations, at least one in every one of Georgia's 159 counties, Obama's operation seemed shockingly energetic for a state not on most pundit radars. With roughly 550,000 new voters registered and an exceptionally motivated volunteer base, the infrastructure of the organization was already in place when many organizers were shifted to other states.
Adelman credited wunderkind field operator Alex Lofton, now in Ohio, with setting up the infrastructure before he was considered too valuable not to have in a more competitive state. "He opened up all the offices, he trained all the kids, did conference calls twice a day," Adelman explained. "He was 23 and doing things in a way twice his age couldn't accomplish." Such are Obama's young brilliant organizers the campaign's great underwritten story.
"Really, in Georgia, that's all we needed," Adelman said. "The rest of it was neighbor to neighbor. People needed to see people in their own neighborhood" talking about Barack Obama. "The only place we were hurt was surrogate visits."
Indeed, Obama is doing better with white voters in Georgia than either Kerry or Gore. In early voting, African-American voting was 35%. 25% is the historic level. As for totals after election day comes and goes, Adelman said, "anything over 30% and we're gonna win."
As the interview progressed just around the noon hour yesterday, we found ourselves pressed by a steady stream of volunteers elbowing us out of the way to get to the phones. In a flash, an already buzzing office grew packed. Volunteers think Obama is going win Georgia.
We asked about the insanely long lines, and whether that would hamper voting. First, we learned, Barack Obama has "Comfort Teams," which are all volunteer forces who don't campaign, but simply bring water, hot chocolate and snacks. "No campaigning, no materials," Adelman said, just making sure the people who have to wait in long lines aren't hungry or thirsty.
Second, McCain voters, who exist in smaller percentages in Obama-heavy precincts, may not have the same determination to spend all day in line the way Obama's voters have shown. That's the flip side of Republican failure to provide enough voting machines in Democratic-heavy districts when Democratic voters refuse to be deterred. It hurts some Republican vote as well, particularly since Republican base enthusiasm for John McCain (Huckabee won the Republican primary) is tepid at best.
What Adelman has already seen in terms of voter determination and quiet peace at the long lines, she admitted, had already brought her and other staff to tears a time or two. "Mayor Franklin and Congressman Lewis have been helping encourage people to stay in line," and 50-60 people in metro Atlanta alone have helped with the Comfort Teams.
We pressed Adelman on why outside observers should feel confident that Georgians will stay in line, as long as it takes. Adelman paused for a moment, looking for a way to capture the intangible. Finally, with the air of a woman who'd seen early voters up close, she shrugged.
"I just think our voters are going to stand in line."
– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”
If there is one shocker on election night in the presidential race, cast your eyes to Georgia. 1,994,990 people voted early in Georgia. 3,301,875 total voted in Georgia's presidential race in 2004.
Let that sink in.
"The pullout was greatly exaggerated," began Caroline Adelman, Georgia Communications Director, Obama for America. The pullout, of course, refers to the publicized redistribution of Obama staffers to other states when it appeared the Illinois Senator had no chance to win. Obama's skeleton staff of 53 is at least four times bigger than any other Democratic presidential effort in Georgia's history. Adelman, who's been involved here for the last five elections, estimated for us that even Bill Clinton, who won the state in 1992, only had a dozen staffers.
With 33 offices and 175 separate staging locations, at least one in every one of Georgia's 159 counties, Obama's operation seemed shockingly energetic for a state not on most pundit radars. With roughly 550,000 new voters registered and an exceptionally motivated volunteer base, the infrastructure of the organization was already in place when many organizers were shifted to other states.
Adelman credited wunderkind field operator Alex Lofton, now in Ohio, with setting up the infrastructure before he was considered too valuable not to have in a more competitive state. "He opened up all the offices, he trained all the kids, did conference calls twice a day," Adelman explained. "He was 23 and doing things in a way twice his age couldn't accomplish." Such are Obama's young brilliant organizers the campaign's great underwritten story.
"Really, in Georgia, that's all we needed," Adelman said. "The rest of it was neighbor to neighbor. People needed to see people in their own neighborhood" talking about Barack Obama. "The only place we were hurt was surrogate visits."
Indeed, Obama is doing better with white voters in Georgia than either Kerry or Gore. In early voting, African-American voting was 35%. 25% is the historic level. As for totals after election day comes and goes, Adelman said, "anything over 30% and we're gonna win."
As the interview progressed just around the noon hour yesterday, we found ourselves pressed by a steady stream of volunteers elbowing us out of the way to get to the phones. In a flash, an already buzzing office grew packed. Volunteers think Obama is going win Georgia.
We asked about the insanely long lines, and whether that would hamper voting. First, we learned, Barack Obama has "Comfort Teams," which are all volunteer forces who don't campaign, but simply bring water, hot chocolate and snacks. "No campaigning, no materials," Adelman said, just making sure the people who have to wait in long lines aren't hungry or thirsty.
Second, McCain voters, who exist in smaller percentages in Obama-heavy precincts, may not have the same determination to spend all day in line the way Obama's voters have shown. That's the flip side of Republican failure to provide enough voting machines in Democratic-heavy districts when Democratic voters refuse to be deterred. It hurts some Republican vote as well, particularly since Republican base enthusiasm for John McCain (Huckabee won the Republican primary) is tepid at best.
What Adelman has already seen in terms of voter determination and quiet peace at the long lines, she admitted, had already brought her and other staff to tears a time or two. "Mayor Franklin and Congressman Lewis have been helping encourage people to stay in line," and 50-60 people in metro Atlanta alone have helped with the Comfort Teams.
We pressed Adelman on why outside observers should feel confident that Georgians will stay in line, as long as it takes. Adelman paused for a moment, looking for a way to capture the intangible. Finally, with the air of a woman who'd seen early voters up close, she shrugged.
"I just think our voters are going to stand in line."
Today's Polls, 11/3 (PM Edition)
@ 6:17 PM
With fewer than six hours until voting begins in Dixville Notch, New Hampshire, the national polling picture has cleared up considerably. Barack Obama is on the verge of a victory, perhaps a decisive victory, in the race for the White House.
The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.
Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.
Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.
McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.
McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.
Our final polling update of the campaign will follow in the early afternoon tomorrow.
The national polls have all consolidated into a range of roughly Obama +7. That is right about where our model sees the race as well, giving Obama a 6.8 point advantage in its composite of state and national polling. Our model notes, however, that candidates with large leads in the polls have had some tendency to underperform marginally on election day, and so projects an Obama win of 6.0 points tomorrow.
Far more important, of course, is the race for 270 electors. It appears almost certain that Obama will capture all of the states won by John Kerry in 2008. Pennsylvania, while certainly having tightened somewhat over the course of the past two weeks, appears to be holding at a margin of about +8 for Obama, with very few remaining undecideds. Obama also appears almost certain to capture Iowa and New Mexico, which were won by Al Gore in 2000. Collectively, these states total 264 electoral votes, leaving Obama just 5 votes shy of a tie and 6 of a win.
Obama has any number of states to collect those 5 or 6 votes. In inverse order of difficulty, these include Colorado, Virginia, Nevada, Ohio, Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana. Obama is the signficant favorite in several of these states; winning any one of them may be fairly difficult for John McCain, but winning all of them at once, as John McCain probably must do, is nearly impossible.
McCain's chances, in essence, boil down to the polling being significantly wrong, for such reasons as a Bradley Effect or "Shy Tory" Effect, or extreme complacency among Democratic voters. Our model recognizes that the actual margins of error in polling are much larger than the purported ones, and that when polls are wrong, they are often wrong in the same direction.
However, even if these phenomenon are manifest to some extent, it is unlikely that they are worth a full 6-7 points for McCain. Moreover, there are at least as many reasons to think that the polls are understating Obama's support, because of such factors as the cellphone problem, his superior groundgame operation, and the substantial lead that he has built up among early voters.
McCain's chances of victory are estimated at 1.9 percent, their lowest total of the year.
Our final polling update of the campaign will follow in the early afternoon tomorrow.
Road to 270: Virginia
@ 5:51 PM
Today a very special guest closes out our Road to 270 series with the Old Dominion State, Virginia. Please give the Governor a warm welcome in comments.
-- intro and closing by Governor Tim Kaine
THE OLD DOMINION, THE LAND OF WASHINGTON, JEFFERSON, MADISON AND MONROE, the Commonwealth of Virginia has been the focal point of political discussion nationwide for the past few months, and for good reason. This year we have seen unprecedented enthusiasm and activity on behalf of each campaign. As Governor, I am proud to serve Virginia at such an exciting and historic moment. As a Democrat I am overwhelmed by the outpouring of support for Barack Obama, Mark Warner and our House candidates this year.
Since Mark Warner’s election as Governor in 2001 Virginia has evolved from a solid red state to a “purple” state where Democrats who bring the right message to the voters have a great chance of getting elected. In 2005 I won the race to succeed Warner in the Governor’s mansion, in 2006 we elected Jim Webb to the United States Senate and in 2007 Democrats took control of the state Senate and made considerable gains in the state House.
This year we are on the verge of casting our 13 electoral votes for a Democratic candidate for the first time since 1964. It will be a close race, but given the strength of the Democratic organization here and the desire amongst Virginians to see a change in Washington, I believe we are well positioned to make history on Tuesday.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
Huge numbers of military veterans populate Virginia, and only two states gave McCain better fundraising. White evangelicals rank the land of lovers just outside the top quartile, and "American" ancestry is a popular self-identifier. McCain's national headquarters are in Virginia (the communist part, where McCain also lives), and Republicans have a 44-year history of choosing Republican electors in presidential contests.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama has Governor Kaine and soon-to-be Senator Warner as important backers, Warner with a top notch Senate operation that will help Obama upticket. Virginia's voter files are top notch on the Democratic side, with contested races run every single year. Each time Virginia Democrats win an important race (Warner '01, Kaine '05, Webb '06, state senate '07), the motivation cycles forward into the next goal, which this year is winning Warner a Senate seat and electing Barack Obama president. McCain irritated many Virginians, including a beautiful one, when his spokesperson Nancy Pfotenhauer divided Virginia into "real" and presumably, per McCain's brother Joe, "communist" regions.
Demographically, Obama has high African-American vote, many amid the 438,000 new registrants Virginia has seen this year. With over three Starbucks for every Walmart, Virginia ranks in the top ten for education, and has one hell of a law school, with graduates Robert Kennedy, Sean Quinn, Ted Kennedy, Janet Napolitano, and George Allen. Er...
What To Watch For
In the House, watch VA-02, where incumbent Republican Thelma Drake escaped defeat in 2006, but is in another tossup this time against former diplomat Glenn Nye. Democrats should also pick up retiring incumbent Tom Davis's house seat in northern Virginia, as Democrat Gerry Connolly has an edge against Republican Keith Fimian.
In the presidential, watch for when the networks call Virginia. Republicans privately acknowledge that Virginia isn't going their way this year. When the networks call Virginia, goodnight Irene. And now for the governor's close.
The Governor's closing remarks:
As the first Governor outside of Illinois to endorse Barack Obama, I am so proud of the campaign he has run, here in Virginia and nationwide. He has been successful in Virginia this year for many of the same reasons Governor Warner and I were able to get elected here. Virginians admire pragmatic, results-oriented leaders who focus on moving us forward rather than tearing their opponents down.
Barack, Mark Warner and our congressional candidates are running strong campaigns focused on the issues most important to Virginians. On Tuesday, I believe Virginia voters will once again turn away from the old politics of division and fear and choose candidates who offer new ideas to bring change to Washington.
Thanks for the opportunity to greet fivethirtyeight’s readers, and I am looking forward to Sean and Nate’s breakdown of the results on Election Night and after.
Governor Tim Kaine
-- intro and closing by Governor Tim Kaine
THE OLD DOMINION, THE LAND OF WASHINGTON, JEFFERSON, MADISON AND MONROE, the Commonwealth of Virginia has been the focal point of political discussion nationwide for the past few months, and for good reason. This year we have seen unprecedented enthusiasm and activity on behalf of each campaign. As Governor, I am proud to serve Virginia at such an exciting and historic moment. As a Democrat I am overwhelmed by the outpouring of support for Barack Obama, Mark Warner and our House candidates this year.
Since Mark Warner’s election as Governor in 2001 Virginia has evolved from a solid red state to a “purple” state where Democrats who bring the right message to the voters have a great chance of getting elected. In 2005 I won the race to succeed Warner in the Governor’s mansion, in 2006 we elected Jim Webb to the United States Senate and in 2007 Democrats took control of the state Senate and made considerable gains in the state House.
This year we are on the verge of casting our 13 electoral votes for a Democratic candidate for the first time since 1964. It will be a close race, but given the strength of the Democratic organization here and the desire amongst Virginians to see a change in Washington, I believe we are well positioned to make history on Tuesday.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
Huge numbers of military veterans populate Virginia, and only two states gave McCain better fundraising. White evangelicals rank the land of lovers just outside the top quartile, and "American" ancestry is a popular self-identifier. McCain's national headquarters are in Virginia (the communist part, where McCain also lives), and Republicans have a 44-year history of choosing Republican electors in presidential contests.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama has Governor Kaine and soon-to-be Senator Warner as important backers, Warner with a top notch Senate operation that will help Obama upticket. Virginia's voter files are top notch on the Democratic side, with contested races run every single year. Each time Virginia Democrats win an important race (Warner '01, Kaine '05, Webb '06, state senate '07), the motivation cycles forward into the next goal, which this year is winning Warner a Senate seat and electing Barack Obama president. McCain irritated many Virginians, including a beautiful one, when his spokesperson Nancy Pfotenhauer divided Virginia into "real" and presumably, per McCain's brother Joe, "communist" regions.
Demographically, Obama has high African-American vote, many amid the 438,000 new registrants Virginia has seen this year. With over three Starbucks for every Walmart, Virginia ranks in the top ten for education, and has one hell of a law school, with graduates Robert Kennedy, Sean Quinn, Ted Kennedy, Janet Napolitano, and George Allen. Er...
What To Watch For
In the House, watch VA-02, where incumbent Republican Thelma Drake escaped defeat in 2006, but is in another tossup this time against former diplomat Glenn Nye. Democrats should also pick up retiring incumbent Tom Davis's house seat in northern Virginia, as Democrat Gerry Connolly has an edge against Republican Keith Fimian.
In the presidential, watch for when the networks call Virginia. Republicans privately acknowledge that Virginia isn't going their way this year. When the networks call Virginia, goodnight Irene. And now for the governor's close.
The Governor's closing remarks:
As the first Governor outside of Illinois to endorse Barack Obama, I am so proud of the campaign he has run, here in Virginia and nationwide. He has been successful in Virginia this year for many of the same reasons Governor Warner and I were able to get elected here. Virginians admire pragmatic, results-oriented leaders who focus on moving us forward rather than tearing their opponents down.
Barack, Mark Warner and our congressional candidates are running strong campaigns focused on the issues most important to Virginians. On Tuesday, I believe Virginia voters will once again turn away from the old politics of division and fear and choose candidates who offer new ideas to bring change to Washington.
Thanks for the opportunity to greet fivethirtyeight’s readers, and I am looking forward to Sean and Nate’s breakdown of the results on Election Night and after.
Governor Tim Kaine
Road to 270: Ohio
@ 4:50 PM
Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Buckeye State, Ohio.
BATTLEGROUND OF BATTLEGROUNDS, Ohio and its twenty electoral votes are up for grabs. From what we saw in the state, Barack Obama's ground organization is unprecedented, and John McCain's had yet to materialize in force with a few short weeks to go. A smattering of polls in October gave McCain tiny leads, the vast majority of public polls showed Obama with a lead in the middle single digits in the closing month. Ohio is similar to Missouri in that its cluster of demographic data points leave it near the median in nearly every category. Only three of the 26 categories we've chosen put Ohio in the top ten: unemployment rate (7th), manufacturing job share (8th) and fewest Hispanics (10th). And, like Missouri, Ohio tends to pick winners in the presidential race.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain has spent a tremendous amount of time in Ohio, as has Sarah Palin. Rural Ohio is still Republican country, and Ohio has many more rural -- if more sparsely populated -- counties in Ohio. Joe the Plumber is also from Ohio. "American" ancestry is a bigger-than-the-median draw in Ohio, Ohio is slightly undereducated, slightly less favorable for same-sex households, and has more self-identifying Republicans than most states. There are more seniors than normal in Ohio, which also favors McCain. The evangelical base turnout was huge in Ohio in 2004, and if McCain's addition of Palin can generate huge turnout from these voters, he can perhaps take the state and overperform the polls. While we're skeptical from what we've seen that McCain's ground game is even in the ballpark of Obama's, stranger things have happened.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Ohio's economy is in shambles, and Barack Obama has hammered an economic message for months that resonates with Ohio voters. Southeast Ohio, the swing area of the state, is Joe Biden country, and when we caught up with him there he seemed in his element -- literally. Although the Ohio River valley was tough turf for Obama in the primary, some polls have put him ahead of Kerry's pace there, and increased turnout in other parts of the state could put him over the top. Unquestionably, Barack Obama's ground force is as good as it gets in Ohio, and if there is a sporadic Democratic voter in Ohio, one of that voter's neighbors has talked to him or her. In the Secretary of State's office, there's no Ken Blackwell this year, as Democrat Jennifer Brunner is in charge. The vote here will come down to the economy and ground game, and Barack Obama holds well on both of those fronts.
What To Watch For
In the House, one seat -- the 1st district where incumbent Republican Steve Chabot faces Democrat Steve Driehaus -- is a tossup. In two districts held by retiring Republican incumbents, Democrats are leaning favorites to pick up seats -- Ralph Regula's 16th seat near Canton and Deborah Pryce's 15th on the western side of Columbus. Jean Schmidt, whose 2d district seat is always a target for Democrats, is still favored to hold her district. Ted Strickland isn't up for re-election until 2010, Sherrod Brown was just elected to his seat two years ago, and George Voinovich's term is up in two years.
In the presidential race, if John McCain doesn't win Ohio, only three of our 10,000 simulations yesterday showed him winning the election. Simply put, McCain must win Ohio or the election is done.
BATTLEGROUND OF BATTLEGROUNDS, Ohio and its twenty electoral votes are up for grabs. From what we saw in the state, Barack Obama's ground organization is unprecedented, and John McCain's had yet to materialize in force with a few short weeks to go. A smattering of polls in October gave McCain tiny leads, the vast majority of public polls showed Obama with a lead in the middle single digits in the closing month. Ohio is similar to Missouri in that its cluster of demographic data points leave it near the median in nearly every category. Only three of the 26 categories we've chosen put Ohio in the top ten: unemployment rate (7th), manufacturing job share (8th) and fewest Hispanics (10th). And, like Missouri, Ohio tends to pick winners in the presidential race.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain has spent a tremendous amount of time in Ohio, as has Sarah Palin. Rural Ohio is still Republican country, and Ohio has many more rural -- if more sparsely populated -- counties in Ohio. Joe the Plumber is also from Ohio. "American" ancestry is a bigger-than-the-median draw in Ohio, Ohio is slightly undereducated, slightly less favorable for same-sex households, and has more self-identifying Republicans than most states. There are more seniors than normal in Ohio, which also favors McCain. The evangelical base turnout was huge in Ohio in 2004, and if McCain's addition of Palin can generate huge turnout from these voters, he can perhaps take the state and overperform the polls. While we're skeptical from what we've seen that McCain's ground game is even in the ballpark of Obama's, stranger things have happened.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Ohio's economy is in shambles, and Barack Obama has hammered an economic message for months that resonates with Ohio voters. Southeast Ohio, the swing area of the state, is Joe Biden country, and when we caught up with him there he seemed in his element -- literally. Although the Ohio River valley was tough turf for Obama in the primary, some polls have put him ahead of Kerry's pace there, and increased turnout in other parts of the state could put him over the top. Unquestionably, Barack Obama's ground force is as good as it gets in Ohio, and if there is a sporadic Democratic voter in Ohio, one of that voter's neighbors has talked to him or her. In the Secretary of State's office, there's no Ken Blackwell this year, as Democrat Jennifer Brunner is in charge. The vote here will come down to the economy and ground game, and Barack Obama holds well on both of those fronts.
What To Watch For
In the House, one seat -- the 1st district where incumbent Republican Steve Chabot faces Democrat Steve Driehaus -- is a tossup. In two districts held by retiring Republican incumbents, Democrats are leaning favorites to pick up seats -- Ralph Regula's 16th seat near Canton and Deborah Pryce's 15th on the western side of Columbus. Jean Schmidt, whose 2d district seat is always a target for Democrats, is still favored to hold her district. Ted Strickland isn't up for re-election until 2010, Sherrod Brown was just elected to his seat two years ago, and George Voinovich's term is up in two years.
In the presidential race, if John McCain doesn't win Ohio, only three of our 10,000 simulations yesterday showed him winning the election. Simply put, McCain must win Ohio or the election is done.
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