by
Sean Quinn
@
10:35 PM
Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Palmetto State, South Carolina.LAND OF COLBERT, South Carolina's eneagled and superstantial gift of eight electoral votes to megaamerican John McCain mark it the land of freem (freedom without the "do"), though the state's secessionist history makes it hardly Lincolnish. More like grippy.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
South Carolina, home to McCain's infamous 2000 campaign momentum stopper, is a safe state for him this time. A huge number of Christian conservatives live here, and not many Catholic voters that tend to favor Democrats. "American" ancestry is big favorite here, and indeed John McCain's clear fundraising edge on Barack Obama is an anomaly. Low education rates and higher gun ownership rates weigh in McCain's favor, as does a better-than-median percentage of military veterans. South Carolina has outperformed the national Republican average by double digits for six consecutive presidential elections, and will do so again when John McCain collects its eight electoral votes.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama can count on a very high degree of support from African-American voters, which place it 5th nationally. The state is in the top ten in percentage of female voters, and South Carolina's traditionally awful turnout rates -- worst on the mainland -- could allow for a Democratic surge to pull the race into single digits if one assumes such a surge would come from excited Dems. Unemployment is relatively high in South Carolina, which might push economic concerns a bit higher on the list of deciding factors. Obama dramatically overperformed the polls here in the primary, and if a reverse Bradley effect exists, it might appear in a state like South Carolina.
What To Watch For
South Carolina has one Senate race, Lindsey Graham's safe seat, and safe seats in nearly every House race on both sides. If there were one House race to watch in a wave year, it would be SC-01 along the coast, where incumbent Republican Henry Brown, Jr. faces a challenge from Democrat Linda Ketner. The race is lean Republican, and doesn't appear to be one of the likely wave candidates, but relatively speaking this is South Carolina's closest race.
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Nate Silver
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7:18 PM
With fewer than ten days to go until the election, John McCain is another day older and deeper in the polls:
It is hard to find any trend at all at the national level, although Barack Obama's position improved has incrementally in a couple of the national trackers. Indeed, our model now perceives that the popular vote has been flat for roughly the past two weeks. It seems almost as though voters made their collective decision after the second presidential debate on October 7 -- perhaps Obama's clearest win of the series -- and decided on behalf of the Democrat.
Meanwhile, John McCain is running into some further problems at the state level. In Colorado, a Rocky Mountain News poll now has Barack Obama 12 points ahead; McCain had led by 3 in the RMN poll in August. Obama also leads in two polls out of Ohio; PPP has him ahead by 7, and the University of Cincinnati / Ohio Newspapers Poll, which had shown him trailing by 2 earlier this month, now shows him ahead by 3.
Obama, at least, does not look to be competitive in South Dakota or Arkansas. It will be very difficult for Obama to win more than about 397 electoral votes, which is where he'd end up if he wins all the states where we currently have him favored, plus North Dakota, Montana, Georgia, and Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District. Obama would have to win West Virginia to break the 400 barrier, and I don't see that happening; the other long shot is Arizona, which hasn't been polled in some time.
John McCain's win percentage is now 4.3 percent, down from 5.1 percent yesterday.
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Nate Silver
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6:00 PM
In an article for the
New York Post, I give it the old college try and lay out an electoral strategy for John McCain to maximize his (slim) chances of winning.
No razzle-dazzle here: McCain simply has to pick which states he and Sarah Palin can do the most good in, and hope for the best.
I group the states into four categories. The first two categories concern blue states won by John Kerry and/or Al Gore. The latter two concern red states.
1. Give-Ups. McCain should concede Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Iowa.
2. Offensive Targets. McCain should remain engaged in New Hampshire and New Mexico.
3. Defensive Targets. Some reasonably vigorous defense is required in Viginia, Colorado, Nevada, Ohio and North Carolina.
4. Gambles. McCain should limit his activity in Florida, Missouri and Indiana, and hope a national surge of some kind brings those states back into his column.
For the rationale behind these groupings, please see the full text of the article.
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Sean Quinn
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12:37 PM
Tonight we continue our Road to 270 series with the Peace Garden State, North Dakota.WOODCHIPPY AND SNOW-BLOWN, North Dakota and its citizens must feel honored this year to have its accent represented on the national ticket in such a high-profile fashion. So, too, the state's electoral votes are more in play than at any time in recent history. Gerald Ford won the state by 6 points in 1976, and Bob Dole won by a mere 7 points in 1996, and John McCain threatens to either go below that number or fail to win the state at all. If Barack Obama becomes the only Democratic presidential candidate to win North Dakota since LBJ, he can claim a mandate.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain starts from the standpoint that North Dakotans (Hoosiers?) voted for George Bush by a nearly 2-to-1 margin in 2004. In fact, North Dakota only voted once for a Democrat for President between 1940 and 2004: LBJ's landslide year. It chose the Republican every other time. The second fewest percentage of same-sex couples call North Dakota home, the state has a higher percentage of male voters, and minimal numbers of black and Latino voters (there are many more Native voters). Just as the state's high young-voter population favors Barack Obama, McCain's campaign is boosted by the state's rank as having the 3d highest number of voters over 65. McCain actually has almost the same fundraising as Obama, albeit each with very low figures.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Though Barack Obama pulled most if not all of his paid staff out of North Dakota before the race was blown wide open, the only two public polls in October show the race tied, and, alternatively, Obama up 2 points. North Dakota has the second fewest percentage of people listing "American" for ancestry, and the 3d highest percentage of voters under 30 (over 25%). If youth voting turns out to be a national wave, then Obama might disproportionally benefit from that boost in a place like North Dakota.
What To Watch For
Neither Senate seat is up in 2008 (held by Democrats Byron Dorgan and Kent Conrad), Democrat Earl Pomeroy's House seat is safe, and Republican Governor John Hoeven's re-election is assured, so all the action is in the presidential race. We currently project the race as the state McCain will win by his most narrow margin, at a mere 2.4 points. North Dakota has one of the most open voting laws in the nation, as the only state that does not do voter registration. All legal residents may show up to the polls and vote. From a ground game perspective, the removal of a voter registration component simplifies the task. Keep an eye out for further North Dakota public polling in the closing days. The other thing to watch is whether St. Louis Blues top prospect rookie and former UND Sioux hockey star T.J. Oshie will vie for the Calder Trophy in his rookie season.
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11:20 AM
This Road to 270 to you is brought to you by our guest Steve Goldman, my friend and colleague at Baseball Prospectus" and a resident of the Garden State.By Steven GoldmanAs they have for nearly 54 years, New Jersey’s license plates, when they’re not promoting the eponymous battleship moored in Camden or supporting animals through the Mutts characters, still say “Garden State.” This nickname often has a kind of quizzical irony associated with it, likely because the way that many visitors to New Jersey first interact with the state is through its most densely packed, wholly paved over, post-industrial section adjacent to Newark Liberty Airport. Similarly, traveling by car from New York City to Philadelphia will result in exposure to some truly noxious odors, be they from the refineries near Turnpike exit 12 or the artificial food-flavoring labs at 8A. Visitors have been bitching about the trip since 1722 at latest, when Benjamin Franklin, unable to find work in Manhattan, took a boat to
Perth Amboy and walked all the way across the state trying to get to Philadelphia, finding lots of swamp gas but little in the way of good restaurants—a problem which persists to this day.
Yet, despite the seemingly post-apocalyptic landscape that greets the newcomer, New Jersey is a highly varied place, both environmentally, and yes, politically. The 10th-most populous state, a 15-Electoral Vote prize, possesses vast swaths that remain rural and unpopulated, at least relative to the rest of the state. Many of these areas are devotedly conservative, as this Congressional distract map suggests. The fifth district, where pro-drilling, pro-life, pro-gun Republican Scott Garrett is defending his seat against blind rabbi Dennis Shulman, has just been upgraded from “emerging” to a potential “Red to Blue” by the DCCC, but no Democrat has emerged from there in living memory.
Because of the state’s bifurcated, almost north-south divide of the state, and despite being wedged between the theoretically influential larger states of New York and Pennsylvania, politically New Jersey marches to its own beat. This is, after all, the state whose voters elected political pariah George McClellan as Governor, sent the corrupt red-baiter J. Parnell Thomas to seven terms in the House, and nearly voted Bill Bradley out of the Senate in 1990 because they were mad at then-governor Jim Florio. Historically, the state has a long history of ending up in the red column (with a notable exception being 1864, when it went for apparent crush McClellan over Abraham Lincoln). After supporting Franklin Roosevelt in all four of his presidential campaigns, it turned red and stayed that way for most of the next 40 years, going for Thomas Dewey, Dwight Eisenhower, Richard Nixon, Gerald Ford, Ronald Reagan, and George H.W. Bush. The only exceptions came in 1960, when John F. Kennedy earned a narrow, one-point win, and 1964, when the state enthusiastically participated in Lyndon Johnson’s landslide win over Barry Goldwater.
New Jersey began its shift to the Democratic side of the ledger, at least on the presidential level, with the election of 1992, when Bill Clinton converted the state by just two points. Clinton received a more convinced endorsement in 1996, when he took the state by 18 points. Al Gore received a nearly identical level of support in 2000. John Kerry received a more qualified seven-point victory in 2004.
Until relatively recently, New Jersey resisted putting its entire Senate delegation in one party’s basket. That practice came to an end in 1979, when Bradley took over the seat that had long been in the hands of Republican Clifford P. Case, joining longtime Democratic Senator Harrison Williams. Since then, but for an eight-month period in 1982 when future Treasury Secretary Nicholas Brady was appointed to take over for Williams (who had resigned after being caught up in the Abscam scandal), the delegation has been in Democratic hands. No Republican has won a senatorial election in New Jersey since Case’s successful 1972 reelection campaign, and polling suggests that 83-year-old incumbent Frank Lautenberg has little to fear from former 12th district congressman Dick Zimmer. Of the remaining house races, only open seat competitions in districts three and seven, both formerly held by Republicans, are expected to change control, though polling is not yet definitive. Were those two seats to go Democratic, the balance of the House delegation would increase from 7-6 in favor of the Democrats to 9-4.
WHAT MCCAIN HAS GOING FOR HIM
On paper, several things, though these haven’t translated to the polls. To begin with, the state’s “maverick-y,” unpredictable political moods (evidenced by the relatively large percentage of voters identifying as independent), which tend towards quick emotional swings and a great deal of anger against whomever the voters feel has most recently screwed them. Usually that person is the governor, often a Democrat; for decades, the state has been locked in a vicious cycle in which Democratic governors have to clean up fiscal failures on the part of their predecessors, almost always Republican governors. This hostility is currently focused on Democratic governor Jon S. Corzine, who as of earlier this month had a 45-39 approve/disapprove rating. New Jerseyans are particularly sensitive to the threat of tax hikes, as they pay some of the higher income taxes and the highest property taxes in the country (public education is largely funded by local property taxes). In 1990, a one-percent increase to the state sales tax led to a Republican takeover of the legislature, the rise to prominence of Christie Todd Whitman, and a popular movement to impeach then-governor Jim Florio.
New Jersey, perhaps sensing the brie-like consistency of John Kerry, offered him soft support in 2004. In the current election cycle, McCain has done well in fundraising despite the low number of self-identifying Republicans. The state population is also on the old side (with the high cost of property/high tax rate, the young find it an expensive place to establish a household), depriving Obama of the youth vote that is expected to swell his tallies in other states. Finally (again, on paper), the recession hasn’t yet hit New Jersey as hard as it has other parts of the country. While housing prices have fallen, New Jersey’s official unemployment rate slightly lags the national rate (5.8 percent to 6.1 percent through September).
WHAT OBAMA HAS GOING FOR HIM
New Jersey ties New York among the top five states that self-identify as liberal. Obama has successfully exploited New Jersey in the fundraising race. Falling housing prices have hit the always difficult New Jersey real estate market like a ton of bricks, a real blow in a state where a home really is an investment. New Jersey holds large numbers of minority and female voters, and New Jerseyans like to turn out at the polls. Evangelicals are as rare as street parking in Princeton. …And for what it’s worth, favorite son Bruce Springsteen supports his candidacy.
WHAT TO WATCH FOR
The state seems to be in the bag for Obama; successive polls released on the 17th and 18th of this month had him at +17 and +23 respectively. What remains to be seen is whether the state is truly trending bluer overall, even in longstanding Republican-held areas. According to the Cook Partisan Voting Index, just two New Jersey districts have anything like a solid Republican leaning: the aforementioned 5th ranks as an R+4, and the 11th, held by Rodney Frelinghuysen (of the politically dynastic Frelinghuysen family), as R+6. Two others, the 4th (Chris Smith) and the 7th (open) are rated as R+1. The 2nd district, held by Republican Frank LoBiondo, is called a D+4, though it appears to be safe. In summary, nine of 13 districts slant Democratic, and Republican support is soft in two others. If, early on election night, any of the Republican districts waver, particularly the hardcore Red 5th, it could augur a night of dramatic change.
Steven Goldman is a contributing editor at Baseball Prospectus, where he writes about history, writes the Pinstriped Bible column for the YES network, and blogs about politics at Wholesome Reading.
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Sean Quinn
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12:38 AM
Last week, Julie Hensley made one of her thousands of phone calls on behalf of Barack Obama. A woman answered. As Hensley ran through her short script, the husband impatiently broke in.
"Ma'am, we're voting for the n***er." And hung up.
Hensley wasn't having it. "I went and made a couple other calls but chafed over this absurdity," she told us, "so I called them back, as I still had a couple questions for the wife." This time the man answered, asked pointedly who she was, and when she replied he hung up again.
We continue to hear stories like these in Appalachia. Big Stone Gap, where Barack Obama's southwesternmost field office in Virginia sits, gave us our latest version.
In Abingdon, where John McCain's Victory Center field office has been open nearly a month, we spoke with Don Carty, one of John McCain's U.S. Naval Academy '58 classmates. He strongly supported his fellow Middie in 2000, only to see "the ultraconservatives in the Republican Party (keep) him off the ticket."
Remembering the days when the "Pat Robertson, Jerry Falwell crew" ignored McCain's offer to speak in this part of the state, Carty told us how he'd worked a booth at the county fair for a week prior to the Abingdon office opening where folks stopped in for bumper stickers and yard signs.
Noting that this was the most he'd ever seen people express interest in the Republican campaign since he'd moved to the area in 1993, Carty offered that it was precisely because the independent voters in the area identified with McCain's maverick argument. When Sarah Palin was added to the ticket, Carty thought to himself, "John McCain just won the election."
Two or three people a day drop in to make phone calls each day, Carty said, and the office was more involved with the state elections.
Another McCain volunteer, David Goldman, a native Englishman and resident of Dallas, Texas, gave us an interesting story. He'd contacted the campaign, asked where he could best volunteer, and on his own dime found his way to Abingdon, where he helps in the office every day.
"I have no political experience," Goldman emphasized, "but I was so frustrated, having grown up in socialist England, I just know what Obama's going to bring." Health care, and his view that Americans didn't understand how terrible the situation was in England, was his primary concern. Highlighting the long waits for doctor visits and expensive care in England, Goldman said, "I'm just tired of hearing about how great England's health care system is. People are dying because they're not getting that treatment."
Feeling compelled to help in any way he could, the middle-aged software salesman had been working since Sunday making phone calls, preparing canvass sheets, and doing whatever else he could to help. "It's just blocking and tackling."
"I don't mind Democrats or Republicans," Goldman said. "This is far left wing socialism." Since he'd been volunteering, more and more folks had dropped by the office, getting involved when they wouldn't normally do so, he observed.
Goldman isn't the only native European to apply sweat labor to the Battle for Virginia. Back in Charlottesville, we encountered Alex Englehard, a German from Heidelberg pursuing his legal degree and on break after his fifth-year exams. Englehard, a dedicated full-time Obama volunteer, said many Americans "don't realize how big an impact this one election has on the rest of the world."
He reported getting a few scattered complaints that a foreign citizen would get involved in American elections, but that they all came from people who told him they were supporting McCain. Nobody brought it up the day we tagged along.
Though Englehard speaks English fluently and has many direct connections to America, some cultural gaps remain, which one recent incident illustrated. Englehard and a canvass partner approached a door of a house where a racist bumper sticker adorned the car parked there. Englehard had seen the sticker; his partner hadn't. Englehard hadn't understood the bumper sticker's implication, and the two avoided a possible confrontation when the door went unanswered. On the way out, the partner noticed the sticker. "He gave me a good lesson on what to watch for," Englehard chuckled.
[UPDATE] Many queries. The bumper sticker said "If I'd known it'd be this much trouble, I'd have picked the cotton myself." You can see why this would go past a foreign citizen.
Mitch Stewart, Virginia State Director of Obama for America and one of the heroes of Iowa, told us in a sit-down interview that the Campaign for Change now boasted 49 offices in Virginia, with an additional 23 Virginia Coordinated Campaign party offices. 40 additional GOTV offices, not including the myriad GOTV staging locations clustered out from those offices, were already up and running.
One of the cultural inside baseball games of campaign staffs, especially one as data-driven as the Obama campaign, is that everywhere you go there's a competition for numbers. Regional field directors must beat other regional field directors for doors knocked. One state must beat another for voter contacts. Individual field organizers must beat others in their office for dials. The competition is friendly but fierce. It's a pride thing.
So when Stewart heard that his friend Jeremy Bird in Ohio had reported reaching 90% of his state's Neighborhood Team Leader goal, Stewart made sure to tell us that as of last Friday, Virginia's organizers had identified and trained 92% of its NTL goal. Your serve, J.B.
[UPDATE] Bird was happy to inform us that Ohio is now at 93% of its NTLs trained and tested. Sorry Stewart.
On a more serious note, Stewart talked about the success of the Iowa and the lessons the campaign had learned in developing its field program for the general election. "In Iowa," Stewart said, the question was, "will young voters under 30 and first time voters show up?" The answer was a resounding yes. "If you design a program and actively engage these voters" you can get the turnout you need, he said.
Strong Virginia voter files are complemented by Catalist, the sophisticated datamining tool Democrats have begun to use the past two cycles. Catalist fills in holes where the voter file isn't complete. As Chris Schoenewald told us on the Republican side, good localized voter databases are better than a modeling tool, no matter how predictive the tool is. Voter Vault and Catalist predict voter behavior. Voter files are actual records of party-to-voter contact.
Stewart told us that what the Obama campaign had done from the beginning of the race was more than traditional door to door and phone calls, more than just social networking, but "an extreme data acquisition" so that downstream the campaign could advertise and educate its potential voters. "It's all about education," said Stewart. Text messages and email addresses the campaign collected, for example, allowed the campaign to much more precisely aim its message as well as technical details like what to bring to the polls when voting, or where an individual's polling location was. Fundraising, of course, and pushing back against smear campaigns are included in this direct contact from the campaign.
Virginia saw 438,000 newly registered voters this cycle, in large part due to the same systematic, relentless outreach to under-registered potential Democratic voters. If Virginia goes blue for the first time in 44 years at the presidential level, it shouldn't be forgotten that this race was won upstream with that effort.
By chance, we ran into James Gibbs, National Director of Organizing for the United Mine Workers of America, in Obama's Big Stone Gap office. After President of the UMWA Cecil Roberts endorsed Obama, "the membership went wholeheartedly" for the Democrat. "We want health and safety in these mines," said Gibbs. For the UMWA membership, Gibbs said, Barack Obama was the clear choice, and the membership was actively canvassing and phonebanking in nearby Castlewood and St. Paul.
UMWA member Dennis R. Blagg, Sr. told us of his canvassing experiences in Big Stone Gap. Having knocked on at least 250 doors in the last two weeks, Blagg was "puzzled by some of the... slurs" aimed his way as he canvassed for Obama. Referring to the Republican ticket he viewed as responsible for fomenting racially harmful attitudes in his county, "they try to have scare tactics" to gin up division.
It was Joe Biden's visit two and a half weeks prior that spurred Blagg into action. Referring to McCain, "They talk about experience... that guy's had 26 years of experience. Why hasn't he used it?"
As for Hensley, her story ended with a twist. A couple hours later during a pause in her dials, her phone rang. She recognized the number. "This is going to be good," she remembers thinking, getting ready to scrap.
It was the husband. He was calling for the woman on whom he'd hung up. She then got something she didn't expect -- an apology. Calmly, Hensley told the man she'd accept his apology on one condition -- he had to tell her who he was voting for.
"Oh, I don't normally talk about it but I feel like I owe you," the man said. "I am voting for Senator Obama." He asked if Hensley would like to speak to his wife, as he'd interrupted the original call. Hensley mentioned that she had been surprised when he'd called to apologize. Apparently the husband and wife had been talking the entire couple hours since the original call. "Did she get upset with you?" Hensley asked.
"What do you think?" the man replied.
Eleven days.
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Nate Silver
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7:04 PM
This was something of a partly cloudy day for both candidates. The national polls generally contained reasonable news for Barack Obama, who advanced in four tracking polls to McCain's three (Rasmussen was flat). In addition, Obama pulled strong numbers from the weekly editions of the GQR/Democracy Corps and Economist/YouGov polls.
On the other hand, this set of state polling contains some comforting nuggets for John McCain:
Strategic Vision has McCain narrowly ahead in both Florida and Ohio, and gaining ground in Pennslyvania. Strategic Vision is a Republican polling firm, and indeed has had a 2-3 point Republican lean this cycle, but nevertheless, these represent significant improvements for McCain in all three states from Strategic Vision's last set of polling.
Rasmussen, meanwhile, has him narrowly ahead in North Carolina -- actually the first North Carolina poll that he's led in some time -- and closing his difference with Obama in New Hampshire, where his taxation message may be selling well.
Still, not all the news is good for McCain. Insider Advantage gives Barack Obama a large lead in Ohio (though note the survey's small sample size), and perhaps more interestingly, a small lead in Georgia. There's actually been quite a bit of polling in Georgia, and the consensus is certainly not that Obama is ahead; nevertheless, with a large proportion of new voters, it may be a difficult state to poll, and as Obama continues to bank votes in the state's early voting period, it will be interesting to see how those numbers move. Michigan, meanwhile, where EPIC/MRA has Obama 14 points ahead, now looks completely out of reach for McCain.
On balance, we see this election as being very flat, but that is incrementally better news for McCain than yesterday's horrible polling day, when he looked to be ceding further ground to Obama. McCain's position has improved very slightly: we now give him a 5.1% chance of winning the election, up from 3.7% yesterday.
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Sean Quinn
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4:38 PM
Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Bluegrass State, Kentucky.FROM PADUCAH TO THE MOONSHINE HILLS, Kentucky is home to over 20% of voters who describe their ancestry as "American," placing it number one on the list. With low per capita income and even lower education levels, Kentucky's very high Democratic partisan self-identification is betrayed by George W. Bush's 20-point win in 2004.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
Kentucky voters own a lot of guns, go to more Walmarts than Starbucks, and only five states contain proportionally more white evangelicals. Partisan ID-wise, Kentucky voters prefer the Democratic party, but the state's social conservatism leads to Republican preference at the presidential level. Low education levels favor the Republican candidate, and the relative paucity of same-sex households, Latino voters, voters under 30, or Catholics don't add to Obama's cause. Unless John McCain is treading in the low 100s of electoral vote category, he'll win the state of Kentucky.
What Obama Has Going For Him
As noted at the outset, Barack Obama's advantage in partisan self-identification is deceptive. Particularly in rural areas and Eastern Kentucky, Obama was wiped off the map. Obama failed to win a single Democratic convention delegate in Kentucky's 5th district, the only district in the entire nation where that happened. One thing Obama does have going for him in Kentucky is the state is on the tougher end of economic times, ranking 10th in unemployment rate. As the economic crisis has helped tilt the race in Obama's favor, Kentucky would seem a place where Obama might close ground, even if it's not enough to win.
What To Watch For
The most interesting race to watch in Kentucky is Senate Republican Majority Leader Mitch McConnell's re-election defense against Democrat Bruce Lunsford. We project the race as of this morning at McConnell +3.6%, but that is too close for comfort in a year where the enthusiasm gap between Democratic and Republican voters suggests a potential wave. The other race to look for is who wins the open House seat in KY-02, which Republicans believe could be vulnerable in a wave year. Cook Political Report's David Wasserman ranks the race as Lean Republican, and with a partisan voting index (PVI) of +13, it's easy to see why. Two state senators, Democrat David Boswell and Republican Brett Guthrie, are vying for the open seat. John Yarmuth, who won a close race in 2006 to unseat Anne Northup and faces her again in KY-03, enjoys the Colbert Bump and has Republicans writing off the race.
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Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Green Mountain State, Vermont.SYRUPY AND NEWHARTISH, Vermont has three electoral votes as safe as they come for Barack Obama. However, Vermont was long a Republican bastion -- from 1856 through 1988, it voted Republican in every single election except for LBJ's 1964 rout. Before 1856, it voted straight Whig.
Woodrow Wilson only failed to carry Republicans won only two states in 1912 -- Vermont and Utah. FDR lost the state
four times, including 1936 when only Vermont and Maine went Republican. But beginning in 1992, Vermont has gone Democratic by margins of 16, 22, 10 (Nader 2000) and 20. If Obama fails to carry the state by a floor of 20 points it would be a stunning upset.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
Vermonters own a decent number of guns. And the Starbucks:Walmart ratio is shockingly even for such a liberal haven: one-to-one, ranking it a mere 34th. Meanwhile, “American” ancestry is in the top third of states, and unemployment isn’t extraordinarily high. Vermont is also a very white state, with African-Americans and Hispanic voters each comprising less than one percent of the population. Vermont even replaced Howard Dean with a Republican Governor, Jim Douglas. While these small indicators come nowhere close to adding up to a McCain win, it isn't as clear-cut from the demographic data outside of the Likert scale and Bush margins. Vermont is surprising in that the percentage of self-identifying Democrats only barely edge self-identifying Republicans.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Highly liberal, highly educated, and very strong per capita Obama fundraising illustrate why Vermont and its three votes are safely in Barack Obama's column. Holding the highest concentration of rural voters and same-sex couples, Vermont was Kerry's 3d best state over Bush in 2004, and only one state ranks more liberal on the Likert scale. Popular Senator Bernie Sanders even identifies as a socialist. Vermont is often the state, along with Massachusetts, that shows up in a stream of liberal-bashing pejorative labels (Volvo-driving, latte-sipping, etc.).
What To Watch For
Vermont has no Senate seats up, Peter Welch's House seat is safe, and this year's gubernatorial election is safe for Jim Douglas' re-election because Anthony Pollina of the Independent-cum-Prograssive Party is splitting the liberal vote with Democrat Gaye Symington. Democrats hold large majorities in both the Vermont House and Senate. Thus, in terms of what to watch for, the best bet is to put on a Phish album and drive to Gutterson Field House to watch some UVM hockey. Then go hunt for Ben and Jerry's newest flavor, ChiveThirtyAte.
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Nate Silver
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1:29 PM
From yesterday's
CBS/NYT poll:
Fifty-nine percent of registered voters think McCain's economics would favor the wealthy; just 11 percent the middle class. Far more than being a "center-right" country, this is a middle class country, and a candidate who fails to speak to the concerns of the middle class does so at his own peril.
Certainly to some extent, rough economic times favor the Democrats, at least when there's a Republican in the White House. But in general, I think the pundits have been too judicious; Obama has gotten too little credit, and McCain not enough blame, for their handling of the financial crisis.
McCain did himself no favors with his "fundamentals" comment, nor the "suspension" of his campaign. But the former might qualify as a capital-G gaffe -- McCain seemed to want to retract his words as soon as he uttered them -- and the later was a snap decision the implications of which were hard to see in advance. These were arguably errors of tactics rather than strategy, if you will.
There have been plenty of other occasions, however, on which McCain had plenty of time to contemplate his message, and wound up coming across as tone deaf. The failure to mention the phrase "middle class" even once during the three presidential debates was either brazen, incompetent, or both. The notion that a capital gains tax cut would be persuasive to middle class families was naive. Joe the Plumber is gimmicky, and seems that way to most Americans. And McCain's best talking point about the economy -- that of high energy prices -- has been strangely absent from the discussion on the post-Lehman economy, or has mutated into a strident catch phrase about offshore drilling.
Conversely, it is not as though Obama was Hillary Clinton or Mitt Romney -- someone who was seen coming into this crisis as an economic savant. But the basic message that a robust middle class is the foundation of economic growth is exactly the right one in troubled times like these, and Obama has delivered it with discipline and grace.
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Nate Silver
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11:01 AM
In an article at
The New Republic, I explore why John McCain has been so vulnerable in his home region, the Interior West.
Why is McCain performing so poorly in his own backyard? In part, he is fighting a Sisyphean battle against the demographic changes in the region. The Census Bureau measures how many people migrate into each state each year. In 2006, half of the top ten fastest-growing states were in the West, ranging from Nevada (3.5 percent) to Colorado (1.9 percent). These new residents generally fall into one of two categories: college-educated white folks from the coasts looking for cheaper housing, better schools, or a higher quality of life--or, Latinos. Both groups are quite friendly to Democrats.
Still, McCain's politics may also be partly to blame. For one thing, McCain is perceived largely as an insider--the Senator from Washington (D.C.) rather than the Senator from Arizona. The West--particularly the Mountain West--does not like Washington establishment candidates. Consider, for instance, that Bill Clinton--running as an outsider in 1992--won Montana, and came within single digits of George Bush in states like Wyoming and Alaska. By 1996, however, when his incumbency had transformed him into an insider by default, Clinton lost Montana, and was crushed in Wyoming and Alaska by 13 and 18 points, respectively.
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Nate Silver
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8:32 AM
Something of the calm before the storm here, as there has been plenty of polling out since our previous update four days ago, but not in any one particular direction.
As before, the three critical races for any scenario in which the Democrats earn a 60-seat majority are the three vulnerable Republican incumbents in the South. These are Mitch McConnell in
Kentucky, Saxby Chambliss in
Georgia, and Roger Wicker in
Mississippi. All three races lean Republican to the tune of about 2 points.
We could debate all day about which of these races in fact presents the best opportunity for the Dems. Mississippi would seem to be the toughest defense on paper, since Roger Wicker is an appointee rather than a true incumbent, and lacks some of the financial advantages trappings thereof. Mitch McConnell's approval ratings continue to worsen, and Bruce Lunsford has drawn into a tie in at least one poll (SurveyUSA) of Kentucky, but Barack Obama would seem to have fewer coattails there than in the other two states.
In Georgia, conversely, the early voting numbers have been favorable to Democrats, and the state in fact remains winnable for Barack Obama. But we have yet to see a poll putting Jim Martin ahead by any margin, and the race is complicated by the fact that a run-off will occur in December if neither candidate achieves a 50 percent majority (a distinct possibility as Libertarian Allan Buckley is likely to draw somewhere between 1 and 4 percent of the vote). It is hard to say which candidate would benefit from a run-off, but the default assumption is probably Saxby Chambliss, who wouldn't have to contend with an Obama turnout surge then, and who might benefit from an appeal to divided government (assuming that Obama wins the Presidency). Then again, in a world where Obama has prevailed, Democratic morale is likely to be much, much higher than Republican morale, and Democratic wallets are likely to be a bit more open; we could easily see eight figures pumped into a run-off election from each side.
The Democrats, meanwhile, remain the favorite in eight seats that are currently held by Republicans, although they are hardly out of the woods in several of them. Ted Stevens' approval scores have improved incrementally in Alaska, but his fate may be determined by 12 jurors in Washington as much as a couple hundred thousand voters up there. Al Franken's position has improved slightly in Minnesota to the extent where he's ahead in 4 out of the 5 most recent polls. But those polls are also showing a fairly large third-party vote that is unlikely to materialize in its entirety on Election Day, meaning that there are an unusually high number of persuadable voters.
Texas, where Rasmussen shows a double-digit lead for John Cornyn, has probably come off the board for the Democrats; it is no more likely to be a pickup than something like Nebraska, where the Scott Kleeb campaign is very excited about the Democrats' voter registration figures.
On the Republican side of things, Rasmussen shows Mary Landrieu's race in Louisiana tightening a bit, although the GOP nominated a fairly weak candidate in that race and any closure in likely to amount to too little, too late.
Polling follows:
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Nate Silver
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9:00 PM
This is not the time when John McCain can afford a bad polling day. And yet he's had perhaps his worst one of the year.
The national trackers were essentially a push -- three moved toward Obama, two toward McCain, two were flat -- but the action today is at the state level. And boy, there is a lot of action: 29 new state polls enterring our database. And many of them contain great news for Obama.
We already discussed the Big Ten and Quinnipiac polls, which are exceptionally strong for Obama across the board. But those aren't the only places where he's putting up some intimidating numbers. National Journal and SurveyUSA join Big Ten and Quinnipiac in giving Obama a double-digit lead in Pennsylvania, as does the Morning Call tracker. The Schroth Eldon & Associates poll for the Miami Herald and St. Pete Times in Florida, which has a fairly good reputation, puts him ahead by 7 in the Sunshine State. SurveyUSA now gives him a lead in Indiana, joining PPP and Big Ten; Indiana has turned blue on our map.
Obama even leads in Montana, a state which his campaign has never disengaged from, according to an MSU-Billings poll. Importantly, the MSU poll mentioned Ron Paul by name, who is on the ballot in Montana. He drew 4 percent of the vote, the precise difference between Obama and McCain. Furthermore, Obama's strong results in deep red states like Montana and Indiana lead our model to conclude that North Dakota may in fact be in play, as well as two of Nebraska's three congressional districts. If the election were held today, the Obama campaign might very well sweep every state on their target list.
To find good news for McCain, you have to go South -- to the deep South -- where new polling in Arkansas, Texas, and Louisiana suggests that those states have yet to become competitive.
As a result of all of this, there is now no perceptible rebound for John McCain; in fact, the race may still be trending toward Obama, although the safer assumption is that it's flat. Meanwhile, Obama's electoral position appears as strong as ever. John McCain's chances of winning the election have dwindled to 3.7%, down from 6.5% yesterday.
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4:48 PM
"If it were up to me, there would be no robocalls," offered Chris Schoenewald, Chairman of the Albemarle County Republican Committee. "All the data says robocalls drive up turnout. Personally, I'm skeptical, but if the data says it...."
During a lengthy discussion of the Republican field program in the McCain Victory Center in Charlottesville, Virginia, Schoenewald detailed the year-round work that goes into maintaining and improving contact quality, targeted persuasion, database maintenance and voter registration that, in his view, makes Albemarle County the best Republican operation in the state.
From what we could see, Schoenewald has just cause to be proud. Besides McCain's national HQ in Arlington, the office and its 20-25 people was as busy as any office on the Republican side we've seen across the nation, with a full table of envelope-stuffers and another room of young high school phonebankers.
"We've had a huge turnout from high school Young Republicans," said Schoenewald. On Tuesday night, the night we were there, it was Albemarle High School's turn. Wednesday is Albemarle West's night. The Law Republicans have been fairly constant, Schoenewald noted, but both groups were "kicking the pants out of the college kids." Asked why the UVA Republicans had so tepidly responded, Schoenewald chuckled, "It's UVA!" To have fun as they dialed, several of the female high schoolers tried different accents (the Brooklyn ones needed work).
We discussed voter registration, and the varied approach each party's campaign takes. "Democrats use a shotgun approach to voter registration. Republicans use a rifle." If Democrats are setting up a voter registration table on the Downtown Mall, for example, "they're registering a lot of Republicans." By contrast, Schoenewald said, "we're going after very targeted people."
On the timing of registration drives, Republicans in Albemarle County work the summer months. "May, June, July, early August," said Schoenewald, "September is too long." September and beyond is set aside for persuasion and GOTV.
What impressed us most was the emphasis placed on very high quality of contact, at least in Albemarle County. Schoenewald, Republican Committee Chair since March and Vice-Chair for two years before that, knows what he's talking about. He credits Virginia Delegate Rob Bell with an incredibly disciplined and thorough approach to voter database maintenance.
"We've had a database in Albemarle County for ten years or so. In all honesty, we probably have the most accurate list in the state, better than even Voter Vault." Though he acknowledged Albemarle is the exception in Virginia rather than the rule on this comparison to Voter Vault, ten years of notes collected from door-to-door conversations with neighbors have given Republicans an incredible depth of knowledge about who their voters are, and even what's going on in their lives.
Modeled by Bell and adopted by the grassroots county volunteers, notes banked into the voter database and printed onto canvass walk sheets are extremely sophisticated. "Do they have a bumper sticker? Are they expanding their house? What signs are in the window? Are they repainting? Are their kids going to college?" When a Republican canvasser returns later to that same voter's door, he or she can ask, "'How's Sally doing at Virginia Tech?' Having that kind of database is a huge edge."
Schoenewald emphasized the value of literature drops at every single visit. "If you don't hand that person lit," he said, "you're only doing 10% of what you could have done." Comparing the local effort with the national campaign overlay during presidential years, Schoenewald contrasted the difference in control. "We always prefer doing it ourselves." The local lists are better and more detailed, and when there is more local control in the persuasion it's more effective voter contact.
This explains, in part, why Schoenewald would rather do away with the robocalls. They're just not high quality contacts. "Five to seven contacts to get a message through is the assumption. If we're only doing robocalls then the full seven is probably required." On the other hand, if contacts were simply a combo of personal door-to-door visits and direct mail, "only three touches" might be needed. Quality, quality, quality.
Asked whether they'd gotten any complaints about robocalls, Schoenewald acknowledged they'd gotten "some sporadic" complaints. Those who complained were turned off by the message rather than the annoyance of being called. "We do paid live calls out of Richmond," and other counties have live phonebanks like the one we witnessed in Albemarle. Schoenewald preferred live calls. In any event, he noted, "most county committees can't afford robocalls."
He pointed out that robocalls had come into fashion in the 90s, when technology like Voter Vault represented the new cutting edge for field programs. "We're really seeing a resurgence of high touch (personal) contact," Schoenewald noted. "We need to in Virginia or we'll lose ground."
To that end, he pointed out that locally the presence of the University of Virginia tilts the field against Republicans somewhat. "A lot of people... think Albemarle County will be irrevocably blue. I don't agree it's a lost cause." Indeed, Schoenewald said, Republicans lost by only 899 votes out of almost 44,000 cast last time, and they were optimistic about their registration targeting efforts. "We had 820 registrations just in the Cale precinct. This is a battleground county."
Pointing out the incredible attention paid by Rob Bell to developing a sophisticated, deep database of voter information, Schoenewald said, "Delegate Bell wrote the precinct captain manual that is now used all over Virginia. We have a great team here that knows how to fight."
The McCain campaign is calling all the shots during the GOTV phase, which isn't 72 hours, but "more like a week and a half." In Virginia, at least, both sides are underway for GOTV. "Victory (McCain's campaign) calls all the shots. They said here's the script, here's the call universe," said Schoenewald. 2009 is an off federal year with only statewide gubernatorial and House of Delegates/State Senate seats up for grabs, and "we'll determine our own script and GOTV universe" for those races.
In Albemarle, Schoenewald reported the similar story we've heard all across the country -- Sarah Palin's galvanizing the base. "Before Sarah Palin was announced, it was dead" in the volunteer office. Following the pick, "it was like someone flipped on a switch. We've had days where we've had more volunteers than work for them to do."
Typically, the office accomplishes 600-800 dials a day, but had reached 1000-1200 call/day territory as the final two weeks began. Referring to the final-days focus, "it's almost a hybrid" between working the GOTV universe of favorable Republican voters and the informal three-question ID polling.
Throughout our conversation, Schoenewald emphasized how much fun politicking in Virginia truly was. "A lot of political campaign concepts get tested in Virginia. It's like a little playground. (We) experiment if this works and that works.... We are active every year, so it makes it more coherent." As Governor Kaine also told us the day before, there is a cycle every single year and no real stop in this suddenly ultracompetitive state. Schoenewald concurred. "You can do politics year round, every year. It is so much fun."
As for the Obama campaign here, well, you know the story by now if you've been reading our long series. Between the Coordinated Campaign offices and Campaign for Change offices and canvassing-only and phonebank-only offices, we saw no fewer than five office locations, all thrumming with energy and volunteers. All the offices had workers busy very late into the evenings, long past midnight.
Since we had too much to report today, we'll tell you about our sit-down with Mitch Stewart, Obama for America's Virginia State Director tomorrow. We're in the extreme southwestern part of the state, in Big Stone Gap. Mile 9,122.
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Nate Silver
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3:05 PM
From the latest
IPD/TIPP poll:
That's right ... IBD/TIPP has
John McCain ahead 74-22 among 18-24 year olds. Who knew the kids were groovin' on J-Mac these days?
IBD/TIPP puts an asterisk by this result, stipulating that "Age 18-24 has much fluctuation due to small sample size".
Indeed, there may be some fluctuations when looking at small subgroups like these. That's why I generally don't pick on a poll if, say, it has John McCain winning 18 percent of the black vote when he's only "supposed" to be winning 7 percent or whatever. Fluctuations of that magnitude are going to be relatively common, mathematically speaking. In fact, they're entirely unavoidable, if you're taking enough polls and breaking out the results amongst enough subgroups.
But fluctuations of this magnitude are an entirely different matter.
Suppose that the true distribution of the 18-24 year old vote is a 15-point edge for Obama. This is a very conservative estimate; most pollsters show a gap of anywhere from 20-35 points among this age range.
About 9.3 percent of the electorate was between age 18-24 in 2004. Let's assume that the percentage is also 9.3 percent this year. Again, this is a highly conservative estimate. The IBD/TIPP poll has a sample size of 1,060 likely voters, which would imply that about 98 of those voters are in the 18-24 age range.
What are the odds, given the parameters above, that a random sampling of 98 voters aged 18-24would distribute themselves 74% to McCain and 22% to Obama?
Using a binomial distribution, the odds are 54,604,929,633-to-1 against. That is, about 55 billion to one.
So, there is an 0.000000002% chance that IBD/TIPP just got really unlucky. Conversely, there is a 99.999999998% chance that one of the following things is true:
(i) They're massively undersampling the youth vote. If you only have, say, 30 young voters when you should have 100 or so in your sample, than the odds of a freak occurrence like this are significantly more likely.
-or-
(ii) Something is dramatically wrong with their sampling or weighting procedures, or their likely voter model.
My guess is that it's some combination of the two -- that, for instance, IBD/TIPP is applying a very stringent likely voter model that removes you from the sample if you haven't voted in the past two elections, which would rule a great number of 18-24 year olds out.
A pollster could get away with a turnout model like that in 2004 (when IBD/TIPP did well in estimating the national popular vote), when the split in the youth vote was relatively small between John Kerry and George W. Bush. They can't get away with that this year, when the split is much larger.
But the basic takeaway is this: you should absolutely not assume that just because someone has published a poll, they have any particular idea what they're doing. Pollsters should be treated as guilty until proven otherwise.
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Nate Silver
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12:51 PM
Karl Rove, in last week's
Wall Street Journal:
This week also brought a reminder that Sen. Obama hasn't closed the sale. The Washington Post/ABC poll found 45% of voters still don't think he's qualified to be president, about the same number who doubted his qualifications in March.
This is seven points more than George W. Bush's highest reading in 2000 and the worst since Michael Dukakis's 56% unqualified rating in 1988. It explains why Mr. Obama has ignored Democratic giddiness and done two things to keep victory from slipping away.
The
Washington Post's Jon Cohen, today:
Obama-experience - 56 percent of voters said Obama has the kind of experience it takes to be an effective president, 42 percent said he does not. Those numbers match his best of the campaign, and are a touch better than the split on Bush's experience on the eve of the 2000 election (52 percent said he had enough experience to be a good president, 44 percent said not).
Emphasis mine, obviously. Voters have fewer doubts about Obama's experience today than they did about George W. Bush on the eve of the 2000 election.
Also, those of you who can do subtraction will find a little white lie in Rove's account. One more for the road, eh?
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Nate Silver
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10:40 AM
A 'yes' vote on California Proposition 8 would amend the state's constitution to prohibit gay marriage. A 'no' vote would maintain the constitution, which the California Supreme Court ruled in May provides equal protection for gay marriage.
SurveyUSA and
PPIC have new numbers out on the issue, with SurveyUSA having the gay marriage ban leading by 3 points, and PPIC having it trailing by 8 points. Field should have a poll out on the issue sometime next week.
Both the PPIC and SurveyUSA polls have Barack Obama leading by large (20+ point) margins, so I'm not sure that opponents of the measure can count on some sort of turnout surge above and beyond what is already reflected in the polls. There are evidently fair numbers of Obama/'Yes on 8' tickets, especially among the state's black and Latino populations.
Ballot measures are notoriously hard to poll, so we really have no idea where this thing is at, although it seems fair to say that it's chances of passing -- after a heavy advertising campaign by the Yes on 8 people -- are better than they were a couple of months ago.
There are also a couple of X-factors to keep in mind:
On the one hand, there have been suggestions that there is something of 'Bradley Effect' on polling on gay marriage bans, and that such measures tend to overperform their polls, although a more recent analysis refutes this suggestion.
On the other hand, because ballot measures are confusing, it is usually better to be on the 'No' side of them ... people tend to vote 'no' on things that they don't understand. In this case, that gives an advantage to the marriage equality folks. (It may even be the case that some voters vote 'no', thinking that they're voting no to gay marriage, when in fact the wording of the resolution is such that a 'no' vote protects gay marriage).
I'd peg the 'no' side as about a 55/45 favorite, but not more than that.
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Nate Silver
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9:12 AM
New polling this morning from the
Big Ten polling consortium and
Quinnipiac University present a view of what the world might look like if Barack Obama wins in a landslide.
The Big Ten polls have Obama ahead by double digits in ten Midwestern states: he leads by 10 in Indiana, 11 in Pennsylvania, 12 in Ohio, 13 in Wisconsin and Iowa, 19 in Minnesota, 22 in Michigan, and 29 in Illinois.
Quinnipiac has Obama ahead by 14 points in Ohio, 13 points in Pennsylvania, and 5 points in Florida.
The thing to recognize about polls like these is that they may tell us less about the individual states and more about where the particular pollsters are calibrating the horse race.
The numbers you see in our current state-by-state projections assume that Obama will ultimately prevail on election day by about 5 points. But what if Obama were to win by 10 or more points instead, where several pollsters now have the race? You'd probably see results which look something like these.
So the best way to regard these numbers is in the same way that you might have regarded the Pew poll from earlier this week, which had Obama at a +14 nationally. If you regarded that number as an outlier -- and I wouldn't blame you one bit if you did -- you should probably regard these numbers as outliers too. If you regarded that number not so much as an outlier but as a best-case scenario -- and that's how I tend to regard it -- you should probably regard these numbers as a best-case scenario also.
With that said, the trendlines in these polls are interesting. Quinnipiac has had a slight (1-2 point) Democratic lean this election cycle, but only in the last month or so have they started to produce some of these "shock and awe" numbers for Obama. And when the first round of Big Ten polling was conducted in mid-September, it had not been particularly favorable to Obama.
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Sean Quinn
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12:02 AM
Tonight we continue our Road to 270 series with the Grand Canyon State, Arizona.JOHN MCCAIN'S HOME, Arizona will give its ten electoral votes to its native son. One of the poorest per capita states in the nation, this stunningly beautiful state was also Barry Goldwater's home, and indeed John McCain took Goldwater's seat in 1986. Only once since Harry Truman left office, Bill Clinton's 2-point win in 1996, has the state supported a Democrat for President, and the trend will continue this year.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain outraised Barack Obama in his home state by better than two-to-one, and McCain's home state is his best. Arizona ranks tenth on highest Republican partisan self-ID, as well as tenth on lowest Democratic partisan self-ID. There are 21 states raked more conservative on the Likert scale, and a large number of Mormons and reasonably high percentage of veterans tilt the scales in the Republican's favor. While Al Gore famously lost his 11-EV home state of Tennessee in 2000 and it cost him the White House, John McCain will not suffer the same fate in 2008.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama has a high Starbucks:Walmart ratio and a very large number of Hispanic voters and Native voters. Also, Arizona posts a surprisingly low gun ownership rate for a Mountain West state. The rest of the factors normally thought to weigh in a Democratic candidate's favor seem to rank at or near the 50-state median at best. Catholics, voters under 30, Obama fundraising numbers are all quite average, and that doesn't get the job done when McCain's statistical edges are significantly more pronounced where he has them.
What To Watch For
Arizona has several House races in contention this year, with freshman Democratic seat defenses looking good in AZ-05 (Harry Mitchell) and AZ-08 (Gabrielle Giffords). Rick Renzi's open District AZ-01 seat appears to be a likely Democratic pickup, and incumbent, conservative Republican icon John Shadegg in AZ-03 (north Phoenix suburbs) faces a challenge from Democrat Bob Lord. The Lord-Shadegg race is a classic strong incumbent facing a well-funded opponent in a wave year, so this is the #1 race to watch. Will John McCain bring enough coattails in his home state that he can at least protect Shadegg?
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Nate Silver
@
6:55 PM
We are partnering with
Credo Mobile to provide text messaging updates to you through the balance of the campaign. Each day, you will receive a text message when the daily polling thread is updated, with a link to a mobile-friendly table of the most recent additions to the polling database.
To sign up, you can use the form located along the left-hand sidebar about half way down the page. Or, just text
538 to
30644.
And of course, you can be assured that all your information will be kept private. Standard text messaging rates do apply.
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Nate Silver
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6:13 PM
While there are plenty of individual results for Matt Drudge to get excited about (or for that matter the Huffington Post), the fact is that the overall trend in this election is roughly flat, and has been for about a week or so. That is bad news for the candidate trailing in the race, which in this case is John McCain.
Five of the eight tracking polls moved toward Barack Obama today; the other three moved toward McCain. It's possible that there was a very slight shift in momentum toward John McCain last week, and that it's been counteracted by a similar shift toward Barack Obama after the Colin Powell endorsement. It's also possible that we've simply been reading too much into what amounts to statistical noise. Either way, our Super Tracker thinks that Obama is now no more than half a point off his peak numbers, which were realized earlier this month. John McCain needs to begin closing these numbers, and soon.
There are lots of numbers to pick through that the state level today, but few of them are wholly surprising. CNN gives Barack Obama a sizable lead in Virginia, and Mason-Dixon -- one of the few pollsters to call the state for John McCain before -- now gives Obama a smaller one. On the other hand, Mason-Dixon is the latest pollster to have Florida tightening. We suddenly have a flood of West Virginia polling, and most of it suggests that the state isn't likely to flip. For that matter, however, one of McCain's reach states -- Maine -- does not appear to be tightening.
McCain does get some decent results in the set of Zogby Interactive polling -- which, unfortunately for McCain -- you should probably take no more seriously than this one. We could stand to get some fresher numbers from Pennsylvania, but Morning Call has been running a tracking poll there for about a month now, and McCain hasn't been within single digits since roughly the 1st of the month.
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Sean Quinn
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4:43 PM
They've done it. The McCain campaign has gone and pissed off Miss Virginia.
When McCain senior adviser
Nancy Pfotenhauer divided Virginia into the DC suburbs and "real Virginia," Kristi Lauren Glakas felt extremely disappointed. Glakas,
a recent three-time Miss Virginia title holder and whip-smart University of Virginia scholarship honor student, said the comments were divisive.
"What offended me and made me sad about those comments," said Glakas, a resident for many years in northern Virginia, "is that I've been to every county, every part of this state. What's best about Virginia is its diversity. The people, the geography. We have every class, every race, an amazing immigrant population... Virginia is the birthplace of America. To say that part of Virginia is not part of the real America is just offensive."
Virginia Governor Tim Kaine, who spoke to us Monday, echoed that sentiment. "It'll backfire big time," predicted Kaine, who compared it to George Allen infamously welcoming "Macaca" to "to America, and the real world of Virginia."
"'Real' Virginia, what does that mean?" asked Kaine, noting that Northern Virginia was home to John McCain's national headquarters, as well as where John McCain lives when he works in DC.
On the subject of Virginia's ground game, Kaine gave us a review of recent dramatic improvements in Democratic operations in the state. While he didn't have a strong sense of the Al Gore 2000 operation, "Mark (Warner) ran a good Coordinated in 2001," where the strategy was to run up the score in Democratic areas and overperform in the traditional Republican rural counties. Though John Kerry invested early in 2004, his ability to keep resources in the state soon ended.
For his successful 2005 race against Jerry Kilgore, Kaine worked a similar strategy to that of Warner's. Building off the momentum begun with Warner's win and popular term, Kaine and his talented campaign staff targeted suburban voters, the Democratic base, and rural areas. And after 2005, Kaine said, the Virginia Democratic Party has been more or less in perpetual organizing mode.
"The data was held in place and we rolled into Webb (in 2006). Then we rolled into the state senate races in 2007." Democrats won both Webb's race and retook the Virginia Senate. Importantly, Kaine said, Virginia benefits from having a deep bench of experienced campaign staffers who've worked many cycles and know the state well. "There's a lot of home state talent."
As for how Obama's Campaign for Change and the Coordinated Campaign offices (Mark Warner's Senate race and the various House races) are working in parallel, Kaine told us that after working out some kinks in the summer to avoid duplicative efforts, both ground efforts are boosting each other's prospects upticket and downballot. There aren't many people voting for Barack Obama who aren't voting for Mark Warner, Kaine said, "except maybe Gilmore's kids."
Asked for a prediction on Election Night, Kaine demurred. "We're the underdog because we haven't done it in 44 years." Though he clearly liked Obama's chances, right now "it's too close for comfort."
As for McCain's aforementioned national and regional headquarters, we gamely attempted to visit, but got nowhere. After a boatload of voicemails and emails placed with McCain Mid-Atlantic campaign spokeswoman Gail Gitcho over a period of days went unanswered, we continued our pursuit of the McCain ground game story on our own.
Ironically, the campaign headquarters in Arlington was buzzing on Monday morning, with approximately 50 people in the office making phone calls -- more than what we've seen in all McCain offices in our previous ten states combined. But we could not take pictures, and security was tight. At one point while we were there hoping to talk to anyone who would go on the record, a female staffer worriedly asked a volunteer whether the robocalls had stopped. They hadn't.
The day before, in McCain's Loudoun Regional Victory Center in Sterling, VA, we stopped by the office immediately after our Falls Church Obama visit. A full-time volunteer had just papered the office walls with GOTV shift lists, and all were empty except two names on one day. It was 5 pm, and the office was closing. Six of one, half dozen of the other, as it only held one lonely phonebanker who complained to us about ACORN and the media:
Falls Church, Obama office, moments before:
McCain's Richmond Victory Center, Monday evening:
In Obama's briskly busy Richmond office, which you can see in Brett's slideshow, we found yet another focused, upbeat atmosphere. We spoke with Obama for America State Director Mitch Stewart, which we'll bring you in the next installment from Charlottesville.
The witty Glakas had the line of the day. Saying she was doing her level best to push back against the stereotypes set by other former pageant contestants Miss Teen South Carolina and Miss Alaska entrant Sarah Palin (formerly Sarah Heath), she pointed out that Palin's hiding from the press was a giant turnoff and gave beauty queens a bad name.
"Even I've been interviewed by Chris Matthews."
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by
Nate Silver
@
2:52 PM
There are eight current national polls that list separate sets of results for likely and registered voters. (In this case, for reasons that will be apparent momentarily, I am deliberately double-counting the two Gallup likely voter models). On average, Barack Obama leads by 9.8 points in the registered voter versions of these polls, but by 7.0 points in the likely voter versions -- nearly a 3-point difference:
Note, however, that the likely voter models appear to segregate themselves into two clusters. In one cluster, there is a rather large, 4-6 point difference between registered and likely voter results. In the other cluster, there is essentially no difference.
The first cluster coincides with Gallup's so-called "traditional" likely voter model, which considers both a voter's stated intention and his past voting behavior. The second cluster coincides with their "expanded" likely voter model, which considers solely the voter's stated intentions. Note the philosophical difference between the two: in the "traditional" model, a voter can tell you that he's registered, tell you that he's certain to vote, tell you that he's very engaged by the election, tell you that he knows where his polling place is, etc.,
and still be excluded from the model if he hasn't voted in the past. The pollster, in other words, is making a determination as to how the voter will behave. In the "expanded" model, the pollster lets the voter speak for himself.
Frankly, I find polls showing a 4-6 point gap between likely and registered voters to be utterly ridiculous. Why?
1. Among people who have already voted, Democrats lead overwhelmingly. Zogby pegs Barack Obama's advantage at 27 points among people who have already voted. The New York Times details how Democrats are overperforming, sometimes dramatically, in states where early voting is underway. (By the way, the New York Times' data on Florida is wrong, as it includes absentee ballot requests as well as early voters. According to an Open Left diarist, Democrats have a 24-point advantage among those who have actually voted early in Florida).
Pollsters ought to make certain that they're asking people whether they've already voted. Moreover, they ought to be putting these early voters through their likely voter models as a sanity check. That is, they should be testing to see whether a substantial number of people who have actually voted would in fact have been excluded by their likely voter screens. If the answer to this question is yes, they ought to be asking themselves whether their likely voter models have any basis in reality.
2. Enthusiasm is much higher among Democrats than among Republicans. The latest Diageo/Hotline numbers show that 72 percent of Democrats are enthusiastic about voting for their candidate, as opposed to 55 percent of Republicans.
3. Most likely voter models are unlikely to distinguish newly registered voters from what I would call lapsed registered voters. If someone is registered, and has been registered for a long while, but has not cast a ballot since they pulled the lever for Ross Perot in 1992, there is good reason to be skeptical about their intentions. On the other hand, voters who are newly registered have quite literally demonstrated their interest in the 2008 campaign; they are in fact quite likely to vote. Barack Obama's advantages are principally from among the newly-registered voter group.
4. There is an enormous discrepancy in the strength of the Republican and Democratic turnout operations. In past elections, such as 2004, this advantage favored the Republicans; in this one, it favors the Democrats. Barack Obama has somewhere between a 2:1 and a 4:1 advantage in field offices in most battleground states. He is relying almost exclusively on volunteers (the exception are a couple of cities like Philadelphia and Detroit, where Obama will most likely pay 'street money' to canvassers on Election Day). McCain, meanwhile, has already had to hire paid canvassers in Florida, and perhaps he will also in several other states.
5. Turnout among 'unlikely' voter blocks was substantially up during the Democratic primaries. Youth voters (18-29 year olds) increased their share of the Democratic electorate by 52 percent. Latino voters increased their share by 42 percent. Black voters increased their share by 8 percent.
I would like to issue a challenge to those pollsters like Franklin & Marshall and GfK which in spite of all the facts above, are showing a substantial shift toward the Republicans when they apply their likely voter models. E-mail me -- my contact information is at the top of the page -- and tell me why you think what you're doing is good science.
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by
Sean Quinn
@
1:02 PM
Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Empire State, New York.HOME OF THE DAILY SHOW'S WORLD HEADQUARTERS, New York is expected to be one of the first states called on Election Night for Barack Obama. The biggest action in New York in the presidential election this year is Tina Fey's SNL caricature of Sarah Palin, which has impacted the race to the point that the McCain-Palin campaign is finally and
belatedly pushing back against the sketch comedy mainstay.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
McCain raised a lot of money here, and a relatively lower number of voters under 30 live in New York, but that's about where the good news ends for John McCain in a state that will see its 31 electoral votes be called quickly for Barack Obama. There isn't a single other statistic in our chart besides low voter turnout that looks good for him.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Only three states went by wider Democratic margins in 2004, only four states rate more liberal on the Likert scale, and there are over 50% more self-identifying Democrats than Republicans. Only two states have more Democrats by self-identifying percentage, only four states have fewer Republicans. Many minority voters, a large percentage of Catholic voters, and the lowest percentage of military veterans all boost the Democrat's chances. While same-sex household rates rank near the middle of the pack, this is a big Starbuck:Walmart state. Not many white evangelicals and a tiny percentage of Mormons, very few gun owners, and only three states have a higher percentage of women voters. Barack Obama enjoys the command position in a state whose electoral votes -- due to the Empire State's large population -- equal Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota, Idaho and Wyoming combined.
What To Watch For
The federal-level action in New York this year is in the House, where at least two seats appear poised to flip R to D due to retirements, Jim Walsh's 25th Syracuse district and Vito Fossella's 13th Staten Island district. Just as both of those seats are rated "Lean D" by the Cook Political Report, Republican incumbent Randy Kuhl's 29th district seat is also extremely vulnerable due to a very strong challenege by Eric Massa. Outside of Buffalo and just north of the 29th is the toss-up 26th, an open seat being vacated by Tom Reynolds. If all four seats turn out to be Democratic pickups, only two Republicans will remain in New York's caucus.
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by
Nate Silver
@
9:45 AM
I doubt that I get as many e-mails on any single subject as I do on the
Bradley Effect. In a feature for
Newsweek, I take one
last more look at the phenomenon:
There is little doubt Obama is losing some votes due to his race; a recent Associated Press survey suggested that as many as 6 percent of the electorate may be voting against Obama because he is black. But that's not what the Bradley effect is about. As long as those prejudiced voters are telling pollsters that they're going to vote for McCain, their sentiments will be reflected accurately in the polling. The Bradley effect emerges when voters tell pollsters one thing and then do another at the ballot booth.
So the question is why, if a voter does not intend to vote for Obama, would he or she feel compelled to lie about it? There are perfectly legitimate reasons not to vote for Obama; a voter who wanted to vote against him because of his race would have little trouble rationalizing his vote. If a voter felt compelled to lie to a pollster, he might tell them that he was voting against Obama because of his inexperience or his liberal politics—when, in fact, he was voting against him because of his race. But the pollster would still tally the vote correctly in the McCain column. By contrast, in cases where the Bradley effect existed, including Bradley's race itself, the black candidate was as much or more experienced than the white opponent. So voters found it harder to excuse their racism and may have misstated their voting intention to pollsters as a result.
My conclusion?
With so many "X factors" like race, cell phones and turnout, there is probably an extra margin of error this year. And polls aren't terrifically accurate to begin with. But there is no reason to conclude that the polls are systematically overestimating Obama's support; the reverse is at least as likely to be true. McCain, in all likelihood, will need to win this election fair and square—which means that he has his work cut out for him.
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by
Nate Silver
@
9:15 AM
1.
The Next Right. Too much good stuff there, even though I've often disagreed with them.
2.
Michael Crowley on polling and pollsters, starring SurveyUSA's Jay Leve, with a cameo by yours truly.
(What, you thought I couldn't be a lazy blogger and just link to people for a change?)
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