Barack Obama has fallen from 63.9% to 46.9% over that period, while Hillar Clinton has fallen from 43.9% to 38.3%. Both candidates are presently at their all-time lows.
3.29.2008
Win Percentage Tracker
@ 11:17 PM
I've added a new chart, toward the bottom of the right-hand scroll, that shows the win percentages each Democratic candidate has pulled against John McCain since the first official run of numbers on 3/6.
Barack Obama has fallen from 63.9% to 46.9% over that period, while Hillar Clinton has fallen from 43.9% to 38.3%. Both candidates are presently at their all-time lows.
Barack Obama has fallen from 63.9% to 46.9% over that period, while Hillar Clinton has fallen from 43.9% to 38.3%. Both candidates are presently at their all-time lows.
Today's Polls, 3/29
@ 8:46 PM
If you're a Wisconsin Democrat, it's been a rough couple of days. A new Rasmussen poll of the Badger State has McCain leading Obama by 2, and leading Clinton by 11.
This result is actually pretty consistent with Rasmussen's previous poll of Wisconsin, taken in late February, that showed Obama leading McCain by 1, but McCain leading Clinton by 12.
Nevertheless, it has been a poor week of polling for the Democrats, and especially for Hillary Clinton. Since one week ago today, the totality of polls we've posted have had her leading: by 3 in Connecticut, by 3 in California, and by 1 in Nevada. But trailing: by 3 in Washington, by 6 in Oregon, by 7 in Arkansas, by 9 in Missouri, by 11 in Wisconsin, by 16 in North Carolina, and by 22 in Virginia. Of those results, probably only the Nevada poll can be called good news for her.
This result is actually pretty consistent with Rasmussen's previous poll of Wisconsin, taken in late February, that showed Obama leading McCain by 1, but McCain leading Clinton by 12.
Nevertheless, it has been a poor week of polling for the Democrats, and especially for Hillary Clinton. Since one week ago today, the totality of polls we've posted have had her leading: by 3 in Connecticut, by 3 in California, and by 1 in Nevada. But trailing: by 3 in Washington, by 6 in Oregon, by 7 in Arkansas, by 9 in Missouri, by 11 in Wisconsin, by 16 in North Carolina, and by 22 in Virginia. Of those results, probably only the Nevada poll can be called good news for her.
3.28.2008
Fivethrityeight.com now twice as good
@ 6:38 PM
There was still a little too much random noise in the data, so I have doubled the number of simulation runs per trial from 5,000 to 10,000.
EDIT: Also, you'll see a few new features along the lefthand sidebar, including an indiication of when the site was last refreshed. I've now set up a contact address as well. Be forewarned: I'm pretty crappy about responding to e-mails, but I sure do appreciate reading them.
Finally, you'll see a long scroll of bloggers and pundits of various kinds. We're a little short on conservatives, in case anyone has any suggestions.
EDIT: Also, you'll see a few new features along the lefthand sidebar, including an indiication of when the site was last refreshed. I've now set up a contact address as well. Be forewarned: I'm pretty crappy about responding to e-mails, but I sure do appreciate reading them.
Finally, you'll see a long scroll of bloggers and pundits of various kinds. We're a little short on conservatives, in case anyone has any suggestions.
Today's Polls: Bad news for both Dems in Virginia
@ 6:21 PM
If the old adage about burying bad news on a Friday afternoon is correct, then perhaps Scott Rasmussen was trying to soften the blow for the Democrats. His new poll of Virginia -- presently available only on video -- shows McCain with an 11 point lead over Barack Obama and a 22 point lead over Hillary Clinton.
Virginia is one of Obama's more important states; it's an essential part of any kind of Plan B that involves him winning the election without carrying a state like Pennsylvania. Previous polling of the state had been more encouraging to him, including a Survey USA poll released last week that showed him a percentage point ahead of McCain. Still, his win percentage there has dropped from 46% to 35% on this survey.
Clinton, meanwhile, looks like she will not win Virginia except in a landslide; the state has dropped entirely off of her Swing State list.
It does seem, by the way, that Rasmussen has generally had harsher news for the Democrats than Survey USA. Chris Bowers has an interesting theory about this, suggesting that McCain may have a hidden advantage in robopolls like Rasmussen because they are less likely to be susceptible to the Wilder Effect (the existence of which, for the record, I am at most agnostic about). This doesn't quite work when comparing Rasmussen to Survey USA, since Survey USA is a robopoll too, but Chris's column is worth a read.
BTW, I've now included a small box along the left-hand side of the page indicating the last time the charts and graphs were updated, as well as the number of days until the election.
Virginia is one of Obama's more important states; it's an essential part of any kind of Plan B that involves him winning the election without carrying a state like Pennsylvania. Previous polling of the state had been more encouraging to him, including a Survey USA poll released last week that showed him a percentage point ahead of McCain. Still, his win percentage there has dropped from 46% to 35% on this survey.
Clinton, meanwhile, looks like she will not win Virginia except in a landslide; the state has dropped entirely off of her Swing State list.
It does seem, by the way, that Rasmussen has generally had harsher news for the Democrats than Survey USA. Chris Bowers has an interesting theory about this, suggesting that McCain may have a hidden advantage in robopolls like Rasmussen because they are less likely to be susceptible to the Wilder Effect (the existence of which, for the record, I am at most agnostic about). This doesn't quite work when comparing Rasmussen to Survey USA, since Survey USA is a robopoll too, but Chris's column is worth a read.
BTW, I've now included a small box along the left-hand side of the page indicating the last time the charts and graphs were updated, as well as the number of days until the election.
McCain's first target: New Mexico
@ 8:49 AM
Another advantage of being the first to tie up your party's nomination: John McCain is now running his first general election commercial. It's a bit of an abstract, aloof commercial, likely designed with longer-term branding stratagems in mind.
The ad is running in New Mexico -- a pretty safe choice considering that the election was decided by less than 6,000 votes there last time around.
The ad is running in New Mexico -- a pretty safe choice considering that the election was decided by less than 6,000 votes there last time around.
3.27.2008
And Today's Other Poll...
@ 1:25 PM
...is from Scott Rasmussen, whom I doubt has ever read fivethrityeight.com, but certainly keeps us busy.
The poll is from Oregon, and shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 6 points, but Hillary Clinton trailing McCain by the same margin.
Clinton has polled consistently behind Obama in the Pacific Northwest region. In fact, if you look at the West in general -- draw a line from North Dakota down to Texas and take everything West from there -- Obama is ahead in our polling averages in every single state except Oklahoma.
This, ultimately, is the upshot from the PPIC poll that shows McCain competitive with Hillary in California. Clinton is unlikely to lose California -- but it provides some confirmatory evidence that states like Oregon and Washington might be tough for her, and that her breed of liberalism is a mediocre fit for the Pacific Northwest culture.
The poll is from Oregon, and shows Barack Obama leading John McCain by 6 points, but Hillary Clinton trailing McCain by the same margin.
Clinton has polled consistently behind Obama in the Pacific Northwest region. In fact, if you look at the West in general -- draw a line from North Dakota down to Texas and take everything West from there -- Obama is ahead in our polling averages in every single state except Oklahoma.
This, ultimately, is the upshot from the PPIC poll that shows McCain competitive with Hillary in California. Clinton is unlikely to lose California -- but it provides some confirmatory evidence that states like Oregon and Washington might be tough for her, and that her breed of liberalism is a mediocre fit for the Pacific Northwest culture.
McCain within 3 of Clinton in California, Connecticut [UPDATED]
@ 1:56 AM
Once or twice a day, I'll do a quick scan through Google News to see if I can find any polls that haven't yet been picked up in the mainstream media. (BTW, for the true addicts out there, this time of night can be good to get "BREAKING" news, since this is about when many morning newspapers publish their online editions).
My search a few moments ago turned up a new PPIC poll in California (PDF), which shows McCain within 3 points of Hillary Clinton, and 9 of Barack Obama in the state.
Is Hillary likely to lose California? Not in a competitive election; Hillary is still 92% to win the state even after this poll is included, and for all its electoral votes, California does not yet show up on her Swing State list.
Still, there are some troublesome internals in here for Clinton, most notably her favorability ratings: 45 favorable, 52 unfavorable. Obama, by contrast, is 61/34 (McCain is 49/45). This from a solid, nonprofit pollster that has been polling its state for many years, and over a particularly large sample (2,002 respondents).
That means Hillary has something of a ceiling in California. On the other hand, it should not be too hard for her to reach her ceiling if she has any success at all in tying John McCain to George W. Bush, who is ridiculously unpopular in the state (just 57 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of independents approve of his performance).
UPDATE: McCain is also within three points in Connecticut, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac. Obama is ahead by 17. Also, as in California, Clinton's unfavorables beat her favorables (47-46). Connecticut has a relatively high number of independents (33% of the electorate in 2004, as opposed to 27% in California) and I find it more plausible that McCain could compete there than in Cali.
My search a few moments ago turned up a new PPIC poll in California (PDF), which shows McCain within 3 points of Hillary Clinton, and 9 of Barack Obama in the state.
Is Hillary likely to lose California? Not in a competitive election; Hillary is still 92% to win the state even after this poll is included, and for all its electoral votes, California does not yet show up on her Swing State list.
Still, there are some troublesome internals in here for Clinton, most notably her favorability ratings: 45 favorable, 52 unfavorable. Obama, by contrast, is 61/34 (McCain is 49/45). This from a solid, nonprofit pollster that has been polling its state for many years, and over a particularly large sample (2,002 respondents).
That means Hillary has something of a ceiling in California. On the other hand, it should not be too hard for her to reach her ceiling if she has any success at all in tying John McCain to George W. Bush, who is ridiculously unpopular in the state (just 57 percent of Republicans and 18 percent of independents approve of his performance).
UPDATE: McCain is also within three points in Connecticut, according to a new poll from Quinnipiac. Obama is ahead by 17. Also, as in California, Clinton's unfavorables beat her favorables (47-46). Connecticut has a relatively high number of independents (33% of the electorate in 2004, as opposed to 27% in California) and I find it more plausible that McCain could compete there than in Cali.
Schrödinger's Poll
@ 1:19 AM
Each year, polls seem to become more and more an important part of the political landscape -- entities that not only are reflections of public opinion, but have the potential to shape it. This is particularly true on the Democratic side this year, since the race may now be as much in the hands of superdelegates as ordinary voters. Superdelegates are probably looking at general election trial heat polls, like the ones you see on this website, in consideration along with a number of other things. And therefore, things like yesterday's Gallup finding that 28% of Clinton supporters would vote for John McCain over Barack Obama in the general election are getting a lot of attention.
We've written before about the Clinton voters that won't vote for Obama. Most likely, they consist principally of Southern Baptists, and some older voters; I would guess also that some of the "Security Mom" vote might be in there. Some of these folks really won't vote for Obama if he wins the nomination, and others are likely to change their minds between now and November. The one thing I'd say is that I'd rather be in a position where I had to win back Democratic voters than win over independent voters. Still, we have three dynamic and unusual candidates in a dynamic and unusual election cycle, and it should not be too shocking that Presidential preferences often blur across party lines.
There is another possibility too, however. What if these people are voting ... er... polling tactically? If I'm a Clinton supporter, and I know it's going to benefit my candidate with the superdelegates to see her polling better than Barack Obama against John McCain, then I'm sure as hell going to tell the interviewer that I'm going to pick McCain over Obama -- regardless of my actual intentions. Likewise, if I were an Obama supporter, I'd tell him Obama over McCain -- but McCain over Clinton -- even if I'd never vote for a Republican for so much as dog catcher.
Mind you, I don't think this is what is going on, at least not in large numbers. But the sad thing is, where probably at the point where what a person says in a poll is quite literally more important to their candidate's nomination chances than what they do with their actual vote.
We've written before about the Clinton voters that won't vote for Obama. Most likely, they consist principally of Southern Baptists, and some older voters; I would guess also that some of the "Security Mom" vote might be in there. Some of these folks really won't vote for Obama if he wins the nomination, and others are likely to change their minds between now and November. The one thing I'd say is that I'd rather be in a position where I had to win back Democratic voters than win over independent voters. Still, we have three dynamic and unusual candidates in a dynamic and unusual election cycle, and it should not be too shocking that Presidential preferences often blur across party lines.
There is another possibility too, however. What if these people are voting ... er... polling tactically? If I'm a Clinton supporter, and I know it's going to benefit my candidate with the superdelegates to see her polling better than Barack Obama against John McCain, then I'm sure as hell going to tell the interviewer that I'm going to pick McCain over Obama -- regardless of my actual intentions. Likewise, if I were an Obama supporter, I'd tell him Obama over McCain -- but McCain over Clinton -- even if I'd never vote for a Republican for so much as dog catcher.
Mind you, I don't think this is what is going on, at least not in large numbers. But the sad thing is, where probably at the point where what a person says in a poll is quite literally more important to their candidate's nomination chances than what they do with their actual vote.
3.26.2008
Today's Polls, 3/26
@ 3:14 PM
Here's one that should have John McCain feeling pretty good about life:
Rasmussen in Missouri.
That shows McCain with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the Show-Me State, and a 15-point lead over Obama. This is the second straight Missouri poll that has shown Obama trailing by mid-double digits in the state -- he was down by 14 in Survey USA's latest -- as well as Clinton's worst result in Missouri of any poll this cycle.
It may be time to stop speaking of Missouri as a bellwether state. It seems to be moving in the opposite direction of a state like Virginia; as Virginia becomes more 'Northern', Missouri becomes more 'Southern'. It has now dropped entirely off of Obama's Swing State list -- our model thinks he'd be better off investing resources in a state like North Carolina or Nebraska -- and is not much higher than Tennessee on Clinton's list.
On the other hand, maybe that's just a convenient excuse for the Democrats, considering that they won a big victory there in 2006 in the US Senate race. It does seem like the Jeremiah Wright flap has hurt Obama more in the South than elsewhere; it also seems to have rubbed off on Clinton more in the South than elsewhere, perhaps because of a backlash among black voters.
Rasmussen in Missouri.
That shows McCain with a 9-point lead over Hillary Clinton in the Show-Me State, and a 15-point lead over Obama. This is the second straight Missouri poll that has shown Obama trailing by mid-double digits in the state -- he was down by 14 in Survey USA's latest -- as well as Clinton's worst result in Missouri of any poll this cycle.
It may be time to stop speaking of Missouri as a bellwether state. It seems to be moving in the opposite direction of a state like Virginia; as Virginia becomes more 'Northern', Missouri becomes more 'Southern'. It has now dropped entirely off of Obama's Swing State list -- our model thinks he'd be better off investing resources in a state like North Carolina or Nebraska -- and is not much higher than Tennessee on Clinton's list.
On the other hand, maybe that's just a convenient excuse for the Democrats, considering that they won a big victory there in 2006 in the US Senate race. It does seem like the Jeremiah Wright flap has hurt Obama more in the South than elsewhere; it also seems to have rubbed off on Clinton more in the South than elsewhere, perhaps because of a backlash among black voters.
3.25.2008
Today's Polls, 3/25
@ 5:46 PM
Just one new poll for you today, from Elway Research in Washington, which shows Obama leading McCain by 6 points but Clinton trailing him by 3 in the state of Washington. Elway has been around for a long time in Washington, but this is the first time they've put out general election trial heat numbers so far this cycle.
Their result is fairly consistent with other polling in the state -- actually it's a percentage point or two lower than our current averages in the state for each Democratic candidate -- but the 9-point gap between Obama and Clinton is in line with other polling that we've seen in the Pacific Northwest region.
Thank you to a couple of the commentators for pointing out the poll in yesterday's thread; the site will be refreshed with the new results momentarily.
Their result is fairly consistent with other polling in the state -- actually it's a percentage point or two lower than our current averages in the state for each Democratic candidate -- but the 9-point gap between Obama and Clinton is in line with other polling that we've seen in the Pacific Northwest region.
Thank you to a couple of the commentators for pointing out the poll in yesterday's thread; the site will be refreshed with the new results momentarily.
Tonight's Polls, 3/24
@ 12:11 AM
Tonight's polls are courtesy of Rasmussen, which has cycled through to Nevada and North Carolina. McCain leads both Democrats in North Carolina: Obama by 9 points and Hillary by 16. And both Democrats lead McCain in Nevada: Obama is winning by 4, and Hillary by 1.
This is a fairly neutral batch of news for everyone involved. The 1-point lead that Clinton holds over McCain in Nevada is her best result in any public poll of that state; but, her 16-point deficit in North Carolina is her worst result of any poll in that state. For Obama, both polls are fairly close to his established averages.
It's interesting to ponder whether either Democrat would decide to devote resources to North Carolina in the general election cycle. North Carolina has dropped entirely off of Clinton's swing state list, and fallen to the bottom of Obama's. On the other hand, both Democrats will be building a ground game in North Carolina in preparation for the May primary (arguably the most important primary remaining in terms of media narrative -- including Pennsylvania).
North Carolina is going to be surveyed frequently, as both Civitas and PPP put out polls on a monthly basis. I'd say that Obama (or Clinton) needs to poll within the margin of error in at least one or two of those polls between now and May for North Carolina to qualify as a bona fide swing state.
This is a fairly neutral batch of news for everyone involved. The 1-point lead that Clinton holds over McCain in Nevada is her best result in any public poll of that state; but, her 16-point deficit in North Carolina is her worst result of any poll in that state. For Obama, both polls are fairly close to his established averages.
It's interesting to ponder whether either Democrat would decide to devote resources to North Carolina in the general election cycle. North Carolina has dropped entirely off of Clinton's swing state list, and fallen to the bottom of Obama's. On the other hand, both Democrats will be building a ground game in North Carolina in preparation for the May primary (arguably the most important primary remaining in terms of media narrative -- including Pennsylvania).
North Carolina is going to be surveyed frequently, as both Civitas and PPP put out polls on a monthly basis. I'd say that Obama (or Clinton) needs to poll within the margin of error in at least one or two of those polls between now and May for North Carolina to qualify as a bona fide swing state.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
