Chris Cillizza's characterization is that Harry Reid does not want a special election in Illinois, instead preferring that Rod Blagojevich vacate office so that his successor, Lieutenant Governor Pat Quinn, is free to appoint a Democrat to the Senate. That is certainly one reasonable way to read Reid's letter, which I've reproduced below:
Dear Governor Blagojevich:Clearly, it does Democrats absolutely no good to have Blagojevich remain in office. If Blagojevich tries to appoint a senator, the Democrats have a public relations and legal mess on their hands. If he doesn't try and appoint a senator, the Democrats are temporarily out a Senate seat, and one additional vote short of the majority they'd need to break a filibuster, which would remain at 60 votes. (Exception: if Minnesota also can't seat a senator because of the recount, the cloture threshold goes down to 59 votes). Meanwhile, the Illinois legislature will presumably try and impeach Blagojevich, which will be ... well, a lot of fun to watch, but not the kind of distraction the Democrats want. The double-dip of the impeachment proceedings and the federal indictment could give Blago more face time than any crook since O.J. Simpson.
We write to insist that you step down as Governor of Illinois and under no circumstance make an appointment to fill the vacant Illinois Senate seat. In light of your arrest yesterday on alleged federal corruption charges related to that Senate seat, any appointment by you would raise serious questions.
It is within the authority of the Illinois legislature to remove your power to make this appointment by providing for a special election. But a decision by you to resign or to step aside under Article V of the Illinois Constitution would be the most expeditious way for a new Senator to be chosen and seated in a manner that would earn the confidence of the people of Illinois and all Americans. We consider it imperative that a new senator be seated as soon as possible so that Illinois is fully represented in the Senate as the important work of the 111th Congress moves forward.
Please understand that should you decide to ignore the request of the Senate Democratic Caucus and make an appointment we would be forced to exercise our Constitutional authority under Article I, Section 5, to determine whether such a person should be seated.
We do not prejudge the outcome of the criminal charges against you or question your constitutional right to contest those charges. But for the good of the Senate and our nation, we implore you refrain from making an appointment to the Senate.
Sincerely,
Harry Reid
Still, I don't necessarily read this letter as Reid being opposed to a special election (although Cillizza may have additional information above and beyond the context the letter provides). True, Reid says he considers it "imperative that a new senator be seated as soon as possible". But Blagojevich's continuing presence not only threatens the Democrats' ability to make an appointment -- it also impairs the special election, because Illinois has to pass a new law to get one, and Blago could sit on that bill for 60 days before the state's pocket veto provision kicks in. That would take us to at least mid-February before the state could start to make provisions for a special election. Also, an appointment and a special election are not necessarily mutually exclusive: Illinois could pass a fast special elections law, but provide for a gubernatorial appointment in the meantime.
Reid also says that he wants a "Senator to be chosen and seated in a manner that would earn the confidence of the people of Illinois and all Americans". Now, from my vantage point, a special election would create far more confidence in the new Senator than any gubernatorial appointment could. (And by the way, while there are obviously special circumstances pertaining to this Illinois seat, I think the whole idea of gubernatorial appointments to the Senate is something that should be done away with.)
Perhaps Reid's vantage point differs. But if so, he's guilty of playing smallball. Presently, Obama is very popular; even if the Democrats have only 57 seats, Obama's going to get the Snowes and the Collinses and the Specters and the Voinoviches to line up with him more often than not for the next few months. When Obama is going to need those extra votes is more in the 6-18 month window, when the era of good feelings may abate as the public realizes the recession isn't likely to be a short one. But by that point, Illinois will have long since had its special election.
Of course, the Democrats might lose that special election; Republican Mark Kirk, who just won re-election in a D+4 seat, now says he'll run in the special, and will make for a reasonable opponent. But even if Kirk were to win -- and he's perhaps the only Illinois Republican who could -- the consequences are hardly so terrible for Democrats, as the seat will be up for election again in 2010, and as Kirk has been among the most moderate Republicans in the House. You think he's going to have the wherewithal to filibuster key pieces of legislation from an überpopular President from his home state? I certainly don't -- not if Kirk values his political future. Whenever Obama gets a Snowe or a Specter to line up with his legislation -- and he'll need at least one or two of those votes to get his agenda passed in the first place -- he'll in all likelihood be able to count on Kirk's support as well. Kirk might even campaign on promising to support the President on key pieces of his agenda.
By contrast, if the Illinois Democrats decided to backtrack on the special election, they'd risk losing to someone like Kirk in the six-year term that begins in 2010. They might also improve the Republicans' chances of winning the Illinois governorship, which is also up for renewal that year. Finally, they might do some damage to the Democrats at the national level.
Whatever his intentions with the Blagojevich letter, I don't think Reid should be spending one moment of his time lobbying against a special election. It's what the democracy needs -- and perhaps what the Democrats do too.
38 comments
There are far too many Illinois politicians who were selected by the Dem or Rep committeemen instead of the voters in the last few years. A special election would be welcome and surprising.
It is interesting that voteview ranks Jackson as Illinois' most progressive congressman.
I believe that if we take Reid's comments as merely looking to fill the seat, while putting public pressure of Blagojevich to step down, this makes sense. It just seems that Reid wants this issue to go away as quickly as possible. As long as someone sits in the seat, the country can at least pretend to return to "business as usual." This looks like an attempt to get past this, without months of headlines, other than Dem pressure to oust Blagojevich, keeping the caveat that he hasn't been found guilty. Not yet at least.
Nate: You're quite mad if you think Republicans are going to give Obama a "six month period of good feelings" -- or six hours for that matter.
You're already seeing assholes like Sen. Shelby and Mitch McConnell trying to be maximumly disruptive over the auto bailout -- even threatening a filibuster.
It's going to be 10 times worse in January when Republicans will go Berserk with hate and will chortle every time they succeed in blocking something.
This "bi-partisan" crap they're suddenly spewing only means that Democrats should roll over and give them whatever they want.
If they stonewall everything, that's being "courageous" and if Democrats steamroll them it's "partisan."
You forget that almost all of them now represent deeply RED states where Obama is NOT popular and will become less so when he's forced to take controversial decisions.
As the Republican party shrinks, it grows MORE right-wing. By the time they're down to Oklahoma, South Carolina, Mississippi, and Alabama, they'll fall off the right-hand edge of the flat earth.
As Hunter Thompson once said during the Watergate era: "the rest of the country might see him as a grotesque caricature of the imbecilic senator Cornpone, but that's not necessarily how the folks back home see it."
Two brief points:
1. Sen. Reid doesn't want an election because it would leave the seat vacant for too long -- thus reducing Democrats to 57 (not counting the MN election).
2. Nobody in their right mind would TAKE the job from Blaggo, unless they were utterly corrupt and without any future ambition. You might as well take an appointment from the foul ghost of Ted Bundy as Blaggo right now. He's totally radioactive and will destroy anyone he appoints.
So, really the only incentive for anyone to take his nod would be to enrich themselves for 2 years before retiring - cause they're not winning reelection.
ERGO - Blaggo will NOT appoint anybody. And the legislature will be forced to impeach him. He's stated he's not going anywhere. Perhaps he'll pull a Nixon and resign when it appears he's about to be convicted. But, I doubt it. Most likely he'll have to be dragged kicking and screaming from his office.
That won't be a pretty spectacle as you point out.
3. In normal times that would be something people would focus on for months or years, but given the growing economic depression, who really cares?
I care about my job and health care. Not much else right now. If Dems can do something to fix the economy, well and good. If not there'll be hell to pay.
Quinn was on WGN last night and said that he favors a special election so even if Blago steps down it won't matter.
A couple of things:
A special election is likely to cost $50,000,000. There aren't too many people willing to throw that dart at the board.
Blagojevich has to be certified a kook or a crook. Either of those things will take time to stick. Blagojevich has no compelling reason to cooperate on either account.
Reid and many others would prefer to see the expedient course of the Lt. Governor picking an interim candidate. I hope that happens but who will be the one to take this hot potato?
I...I...I cried I wept like...some...Grandmother. I wanted to tear my teeth out I didn't know what I wanted to do. And I never want to forget it, I never want to forget. ......perfect, genuine, complete, crystalline, pure!
Blago won't resign or step down. I think that is a given. Way too much ego involved. The only way I see that happening is if Fitzgerald promises not to prosecute....FAT CHANCE on that one.
Which brings me to the impeachment that won't happen either. The Legislature would need for the US Atty's office to release something more than they already have...like maybe some real evidence....once again I say FAT CHANCE. No way they do that and compromise their case against Blago. So all those State Legislators and Senators will have squat as far as evidence..
How about a new law that allows for the election of a new Senator for Obama's seat?
FAT CHANCE on this one too. Blago could sit on this one for a couple of months, it DOES require his signature. And there is more than a little speculation on my part that such a law Ex-Post Facto would be constitutional.
Oh, and finally Attorney General Lisa Madigan's shadow boxing on getting the Supreme Court of Illinois to declare that Blago is "unfit" for office. It seems to me that this is a very loooooong shot as the Constitution has never been used in this manner and I think the provision is in there for like a stroke victim. Anyway, Blago appeals it to the Federal Court and blah,blah, blah it takes forever to get this done.
So I guess that leaves me with this final thought......We may have to wait until 2010 when Obama's term would have been up to finally elect his successor. Lets see, that leaves a 57-42 advantage in the Senate.....Maybe we can count Durbin's vote as two.
Seems to me the argument's already been very well made, that (somewhat) based older Constitutional law that had state legislatures DIRECTLY controlling (and choosing) their US Senators, that the IL Legislature can indeed invoke this in restructuring how Senatorial vacancies are filled, and take away authority previously granted to State executive branch, and that such executive has no bearing in the matter.
That being said, I want Blago to resign forthwith, and the LT. Governor Quinn become Governor and appoint someone to fill out Obama's term.
-taconite12
While I agree with much of your analysis - I think we also have to look at how much the special election is going to cost IL taxpayers.
The thought of having to fork out more cash - after the property tax increase, after two sales tax increases, after the damn parking meter thing last week, and all on behalf of Blago - is a pretty tough row to hoe.
Pat Quinn might not be charismatic, but he's honest. Jackson Jr's stuffed his chances for a Senate seat. I think if we can somehow get Blago to step aside (or impeached), Quinn should appoint the Senator for two years.
But maybe it should be someone who agrees to serve for only two. I'm hoping for something in a Clark Netsch, myself.
He should appoint himself.
Harry Reid can then call for expulsion, the LT Gov. is then free to do what he wants.
Blagojevich resign? Really? He's going to listen to Harry Reid? Can you say pipe dream? He showed up for work today as if nothing had happened. I can see him doing something defiant like appointing himself to the Senate and waving the red cape at everyone. He seems the type to want to go down in a blaze of infamy.
"(And by the way, while there are obviously special circumstances pertaining to this Illinois seat, I think the whole idea of gubernatorial appointments to the Senate is something that should done away with.)"
I think the idea is one of those hold-overs from a more civil time...
...or at lest one which appeared so. Do these provisions give us faith in the possibility of a more honest, service-oriented government?
Pat Quinn has a really good reputation in Illinois. If Blagojevich resigns or is impeached, and then Quinn makes the appointment, I don't think there will be much of a taint--at least not so far as Illinoisans are concerned. Would a special election really be necessary if Blagojevich is out of office soon?
A special election would be interesting to watch. If Blagojevich is impeached, cause he was arrested, wouldn't his job automatically go to leutinant governor, who appoint someone? Would they allow for Blagojevich to appoint someone after all this bad publicity? The guy is even on TMZ. That has to be embarrassing for Illinois government.
Nate,
I really like the way you spiffed up the charts and overall layout of the site.
BUT, the Scenario Analysis, Senate Scorecard and "likelihood to win X senate seats" charts are all really blurry. I've even tried it on different resolutions and such.
To be completely honest, I'd probably vote for Mark Kirk if he does run.
I think the idea is one of those hold-overs from a more civil time...
Not a more civil time, a time when the will of "the rabble" was less trusted. Senators were appointed by state legislators and interim-appointed by governors in the Constitution (until it was amended) because the framers didn't see ordinary people as having good enough judgment for the job, not because they believed those in government were more civil and high-minded.
Blowin' Blago
Obama is blowing this Blago thing. So much for openness and honesty. He seems to have studied and learned well how to appear studied and measured in his statements. Contrary to bringing transparency to his administration he is becoming the poster child for circumspection.
He faces a crucial challenge today in his news conference. There is much unexplained in his dealings with Blago. While it appears that he is innocent of complicity, there is a lot more to this than meets the eye and he needs to make a clean breast of it.
He can begin delivering on his campaign promises today!
Out of curiosity, why does Minnesota effect the number required to avoid a filibuster but not Illinois?
There's an implicit assumption running through all of this that to get anything passed the Democrats need a minimum of 60 votes, not a minimum of 51. I don't see how that's the case. Yes, the Republicans can filibuster, but that's a card they can't use too often without drawing the ire of the public. So quite likely they'll choose their battles a bit more carefully, and the Democrats will not need to constantly secure 60 votes to win anything.
I say no to a special election. For one thing, people are sick and tired of elections right now, with the horrible aftertaste of the recent McCain-Palin sludge-a-thon still lingering on the national tongue. Secondly, if someone who even vaguely resembles Obama politically is picked to fill his seat then it can be persuasively argued that the will of the people is being honored. Forget all about the 60-vote business; that will-o-the-wisp has already evaporated. What needs to be focussed on now is the business of governing, and the sooner a new senator from Illinois is seated the sooner we will get on with it.
"(although Cillizza may have additional information above and beyond the context the letter provides)"
Nate, could you tell who or what "Cillizza" is?
"it also impairs the special election, because Illinois has to pass a new law to get one, and Blago could sit on that bill for 60 days before the state's pocket veto provision kicks in."
As I understand it, that is not correct. The authority of the state legislature to enact a special-election bill for the Senate seat does not derive from the Illinois Constitution, but from the US Constitution (amendment 17) which grants that power to the legislature and to the legislature alone: the governor has nothing to say about it.
@DNorman: the requirement for cloture is three fifths of those Senators who have been sworn into office; old rule was two thirds of those Senators present and voting, but now it doesn't matter if anyone is absent or abstaining; it does still matter if there are vacancies.
3/5 of 99 is 59.4, so you still need 60. But 3/5 of 98 is 58.8 so you'd need 59.
wv: hatins; the Republicans will be hatins to hafta deal with President Obama
Considering that Specter is already raising a stink about Obama's nomination of Holder for AG, I'm not confident that he'll be falling into line. Maybe he's decided not to run for reelection, so he doesn't have to worry about what PA voters think.
Quinn was on WGN last night and said that he favors a special election so even if Blago steps down it won't matter.
But he'll appoint an interim senator to fill the gap until the election.And possibly,once there is a senator appointed,Quinn will change his mind about the election.Or the legislature might not vote for an election.
NO SPECIAL ELECTION,DAMN IT.I WANT A GUARENTEED DEMOCRATIC SENATOR.
The Obama US Senate Seat expires in 2010. Who ever gets appointed will get a tough primary challenge in the 2010 US Senate Democratic Primary campaign.
@Bob X
Chris Cillizza. A reporter for Politico.com and an MSNBC pundit. There's a link to his webpage immediately to the left of this post under heading of wonks.
wv: stallin - what lawyers in MN do in recounts
Not a chance that Mark Kirk would survive a statewide primary, especially if the k-dragger wing of the Illinois GOP clears the field for one of their own. Think Peter Roskam.
Then he'd get destroyed in the general.
A special election is the coward's way out anyway - for the Lege members who are too much of scared bunnies to impeach like they should. Last impeachment took six weeks - that was of the Supreme Court Chief Justice who liked getting hammered behind the wheel, and pulling rank on the cops when he got stopped. This is a lot more urgent, and should go way faster. They could (and should) be done before the new session starts.
Davy, thanks. I have, in fact, seen "The Fix" before, but never bothered to pay attention to what his name was.
Did anyone hear anything about new charges against Norm Coleman?
Actually, winning a 60 seat majority in the Senate over the next two years is not nearly as important to me as preserving democracy.
Let's face it, a general election is more democratic than a gubernatorial appointment.
Harry Reid is understandable frightened that we might have gotten so close to 60, only to see that evaporate because of Blago the Insane crashing our polling numbers to the ground. But the gubernatorial appointment thing was never a democratic idea to begin with, and if it took something like this to bring that fact to light, well, something good came out of it.
And fuck it, I want to win, and I still want to crush the GOP, but if the only way I can win this thing is by screwingt he electorate out of their right to pick their own leaders, even when artificial pressures like this cause the polls to do what they ordinarily wouldn't, so be it. I,d rather lose in a fair fight than win in a fixed one.
Fuck you Harry. Let's bring that election on.
Joseph said...
Nate,
I really like the way you spiffed up the charts and overall layout of the site.
BUT, the Scenario Analysis, Senate Scorecard and "likelihood to win X senate seats" charts are all really blurry. I've even tried it on different resolutions and such.
Those things are images, not text. Unless you have your browser's zoom set to the default, they will appear blurry.
That's how it works on my machine, anyway. When I reset my browser to zero zoom, they appear very sharp, albeit with very, very small type. If I zoom in or out from that point, they lose resolution.
That goes for all the charts-n-graphs, not just the ones you mention.
There's really nothing Nate can do about that, short of loading that data into the page as text. But that's quite an undertaking, as you can imagine, with all that crazy formatting. A template with a corresponding datebase needs to be set up, and stuff like that isn't cheap or easy.
Soooo ... maybe hit that "donate" button? ;)
I think the best outcome would be something like this:
1) Illinois legislature votes for a special election to fill the seat, to be held in March or April.
2) Blago gets talked into appointing a genuine caretaker, someone with no ambitions who'll vote the straight party line, to fill the seat from now until the special election is decided.
I'd think that would keep everyone happy.
Off-topic, but here's a breakdown of last night's cloture vote on the Detroit bailout:
The cloture vote was 52-35 in favor of ending debate on the bill, and voting on the bill itself.
Of course, you need 60 votes to end debate, so the cloture motion failed.
Here's the tally:
Dems voting for cloture:
Akaka (D-HI)
Bayh (D-IN)
Bingaman (D-NM)
Boxer (D-CA)
Brown (D-OH)
Byrd (D-WV)
Cantwell (D-WA)
Cardin (D-MD)
Carper (D-DE)
Casey (D-PA)
Clinton (D-NY)
Conrad (D-ND)
Dodd (D-CT)
Dorgan (D-ND)
Durbin (D-IL)
Feingold (D-WI)
Feinstein (D-CA)
Harkin (D-IA)
Inouye (D-HI)
Johnson (D-SD)
Klobuchar (D-MN)
Kohl (D-WI)
Landrieu (D-LA)
Lautenberg (D-NJ)
Leahy (D-VT)
Levin (D-MI)
Lieberman (ID-CT)
McCaskill (D-MO)
Menendez (D-NJ)
Mikulski (D-MD)
Murray (D-WA)
Nelson (D-FL)
Nelson (D-NE)
Pryor (D-AR)
Reed (D-RI)
Rockefeller (D-WV)
Salazar (D-CO)
Sanders (I-VT)
Schumer (D-NY)
Stabenow (D-MI)
Webb (D-VA)
Whitehouse (D-RI)
Republicans voting for cloture:
Returning in January:
Bond (R-MO)
Brownback (R-KS)
Collins (R-ME)
Lugar (R-IN)
Snowe (R-ME)
Specter (R-PA)
Voinovich (R-OH)
Short-timers:
Dole (R-NC)
Domenici (R-NM)
Warner (R-VA)
Dems voting against cloture:
Baucus (D-MT)
Lincoln (D-AR)
Reid (D-NV)
Tester (D-MT)
Republicans voting against cloture:
Returning in January:
Barrasso (R-WY)
Bennett (R-UT)
Bunning (R-KY)
Burr (R-NC)
Chambliss (R-GA)
Coburn (R-OK)
Cochran (R-MS)
Corker (R-TN)
Crapo (R-ID)
DeMint (R-SC)
Ensign (R-NV)
Enzi (R-WY)
Grassley (R-IA)
Gregg (R-NH)
Hatch (R-UT)
Hutchison (R-TX)
Inhofe (R-OK)
Isakson (R-GA)
Kyl (R-AZ)
Martinez (R-FL)
McCain (R-AZ)
McConnell (R-KY)
Murkowski (R-AK)
Roberts (R-KS)
Sessions (R-AL)
Shelby (R-AL)
Thune (R-SD)
Vitter (R-LA)
Wicker (R-MS)
Short-timers:
Allard (R-CO)
Coleman (R-MN) (we hope)
Dem no-shows:
Biden (D-DE)
Kennedy (D-MA)
Kerry (D-MA)
Wyden (D-OR)
Republican no-shows:
Returning in January:
Alexander (R-TN)
Cornyn (R-TX)
Craig (R-ID)
Graham (R-SC)
Short-timers:
Hagel (R-NE)
Smith (R-OR)
Stevens (R-AK)
Sununu (R-NH)
Ted Kennedy's obviously a special case, given that he's fighting for his life at this point. And I'm assuming Harry Reid voted 'no' on cloture for parliamentary reasons.
If GM and Chrysler can somehow be kept alive until the new Congress gets sworn in, do we have the votes for cloture then? Just barely, assuming that all the freshman Dems vote for cloture.
We'd still have the same 52 'yea' votes, with Dole, Domenici, and John Warner being replaced by Hagan, Udall, and Mark Warner. In the 'Nay' votes, Reid would switch sides, Allard gets replaced by the other Udall, and with luck, Coleman gets replaced by Franken. That's 55.
In the no-shows, Biden, Kerry, and Wyden show, and Smith, Stevens, and Sununu get replaced by Merkley, Begich, and Shaheen. That gets us up to 61, even without Kennedy, and without an Obama replacement.
You know those banks that Paulson handed a bunch of taxpayer bailout money to, whether they needed it or not, who are sitting on piles of cash? Maybe they could be talked into loaning GM and Chrysler enough money to get through Jan. 5, with the understanding that the new Administration would buy the loan at face value next month.
No political activists in Illinois want a special election and it's not just because of the money. We're exhausted from over a year of campaigning. A hell of a lot of us went to IN, WI, IA, all over the country for Obama, not to mention the special in IL-14 for Foster. For many of us, we let a lot of other stuff slide and we need to get on with our own lives, especially with the economy in the toilet.
They'd have to run this race soon, in the dead of winter and I can tell you from personal experience that's like being sent to the Russian front. Ever try putting a yard sign in the ground when it's frozen? You can't even hammer 'em in, it just bends the frame. You have to jam them in a snow pile and hope there's no thaw before election day. Try flipping through your walk sheets or fumbling with your lit with gloves on too. No thanks.
Public perception of Blago in IL is that he's a kook and a crook. It's been that way for a long time. Nobody wants him to hang around. That said I doubt Fitzy can make his latest complaint stick. He hasn't indicted him on anything yet and frankly his better case is the Rezko matter where he may have evidence Blago actually followed through instead of these wiretap intercepts where he just talked about what he wanted to do. My guess is Fitzy jumped the gun not just to stop the "crime spree in progress" but to show Rezko whose sentencing hearing has been pushed back twice now from September to December 16th that he's Blago's last friend and Rod isn't going to be in any position to back up any promises he made to Tony to keep his mouth shut.
I think what will happen is the IL SC will remove Blago temporarily or word will get out that it is a done deal and he'll be allowed to resign instead. All before Xmas. Fitzy will indict him on the Rezko charges and eventually he'll be convicted and put away for about as long as Ryan. In the meantime Quinn will become acting governor and appoint a senator ASAP.
Republicans can bitch about it all they want but the fact is that's Illinois law. If they had better candidates to run than a crook like Ryan, a stooge like Topinka and a whole host of other incompetent party appartchiks they'd have the governor's office and they'd be able to make the appointment.
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,
外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇 外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇
外遇
外遇 外遇外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 ,
外遇 外遇 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇 , 外遇
Post a Comment