Thus far, I've tried to avoid making any sort of editorial comment on New York's vacant Senate seat. This is not because I don't enjoy making an editorial comment from time to time, but rather because I find myself agnostic on the whole affair. Caroline Kennedy strikes me neither as patently qualified nor as patently unqualified to hold a seat in the United States Senate. On the one hand, I tend to think that preference should be given to elected officials when appointing replacement senators. On the other hand, Kennedy, while not an elected official, has been a prominent public figure.
Three agencies -- Siena, Marist and Public Policy Polling -- have surveyed New Yorkers about what they think should happen with the Senate seat. Marist and Siena surveyed registered voters; PPP surveyed Democrats only.
The surveys reveal little consensus among New Yorkers: Kennedy is preferred to Cuomo among Democrats in the Siena and PPP polls, but not in the Marist poll, and the two candidates appear to be about tied when the preferences of independents and Republicans are taken into account. A host of other candidates, like NY-27's Brian Higgins and Buffalo Mayor Byron Brown, draw considerably less support, but because their name recognition is much weaker statewide than Cuomo or Kennedy, this is not necessarily damning.
So where does Larry King fit into all of this?
Well, just because you don't have a vote for the seat doesn't mean that you can't have some elements of a campaign. Campaigns are good things; they do a pretty good job of vetting candidates, and sorting out public opinion. What bothers me about Kennedy -- and the rest of the candidates for that matter -- is that the process has been entirely confined to backroom dealings. Why does Kennedy need to call David Paterson to declare her interest in the position? Why can't she hold a press conference instead, take a few questions, and explain why she thinks she's the best woman for the position? Why can't Cuomo do the same?
What I am suggesting, then, is that Kennedy and Cuomo -- and ideally several of the other candidates -- have a joint appearance on Larry King sometime between now and New Years' Eve. You can call it a "debate" if you like; the advantage of someone like King is that he'd keep things fairly non-confrontational, which is probably a necessity since some of these people are allies and will not be inclined to tear each other to bits. Nevertheless, a joint appearance on King would provide for some minimal level of transparency and public scrutiny.
The joint appearance could be simulcast or co-produced with local PBS stations for New Yorkers who do not have cable television. CNN could then conduct a poll of New Yorkers both before and after the program, to see to what extent the appearance affected public opinion. What if Kennedy nails her appearance? What if Cuomo flubs his? What if a candidate like Higgins or Nydia Velazquez steals the show?
At a minimum, this would allow Paterson to make a better-informed decision. He would not necessarily be beholden to the results of the poll, but I think there is a reasonable chance that some sort of public consensus might emerge. There are dangers, certainly, in democracy-by-polling -- but it is probably an improvement over democracy-by-fiat.
12.17.2008
NY-Sen: Where's Larry King When You Need Him?
by Nate Silver @ 6:49 PM
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56 comments
I would be a bit more hesitant about using words like "prefer" when characterizing the opinions of a constituency from a poll if none of the options is the top choice of a majority.
But then again, we live in a country where it's accepted that the plurality vote is a good way to represent the people in a legislature and in the Presidency.
No all that matters is MN today. Give us data Nate!!!
We want your brains not your thoughts!
No consensus? Depends on which poll you look at, doesn't it?
I thought this was a polling site.
Caroline Kennedy will do just fine. As long as she votes exactly like her Uncle and raises huge sums of money to defend the seat in 2010 and 2012 -- she's qualified.
FRAN DRESCHER FOR SENATE
"You've seen her on CBS... Now see her on C-SPAN!"
I for one am really sick of all these 'family' politicians. Check out this brilliant letter in today's NY Times, re the Senate seat:
To the Editor:
It is amusing that Andrew M. Cuomo, who owes his whole career to his dad, may not get the Senate seat of Hillary Rodham Clinton (who owes her whole career to her husband) because David A. Paterson (who owes his whole career to his dad) may give it to Caroline Kennedy (who owes her whole career to her dad).
You would think a state as large as New York could find someone who deserves something on his or her own.
David Machlowitz
Westfield, N.J., Dec. 16, 2008
I've been a little sour at this site over its lack of a post-election audit of how accurate its predictions were, but this is a great post. I completely agree that "candidates" failure to campaign is bad, both normatively and in terms of trying to actually get Patterson to appoint them.
My guess is that if the poll were conducted on "what do you think of x candidate's appointment as senator": "support, oppose, undecided" she would be doing much better head to head with Cuomo. Just a hunch that there are a lot out there who feel the same as you do about her. Cuomo probably has a strong pocket of support, but probably peaks at around 50 support, 25 oppose, 25 undecided, while my guess is that she's probably closer to 65, 10, 25.
Not that either method is better on its merits... just different.
There are dangers to voting by Internet, but maybe that too is preferable to leaving it to the governor of any state. It probably made sense at the time they wrote the law...
Minnesota Senate: Review of Challenged Ballots, Day 2
How would your little LK shindig "allow Paterson to make a better-informed decision." Wouldn't Paterson learn more from a meeting "entirely confined to backroom dealings." It doesn't matter what the public thinks. It matters what Paterson thinks, does he want to choose the most qualified, the most likely to be reelected, the most publicly supported, or the person least likely to have sex with a prostitute. It is his decision and his decision alone. If Paterson wants to know public opinion, he can get 1,000 people and do a controlled sample. Not that difficult.
Check out what Colorado is doing.
We have an open seat for Secretary of State, and the Governor appointed a Commission to collect names and resumes, and then submit three to the Governor's office for consideration, with time allowed for public comment. This has helped make the whole process open and transparent, and allows for some public input. While this has not been announced for Salazar's open Senate seat, I would bet that we see a similar process unfold for that opening.
Apparently like most people, I've warmed to the idea of Caroline Kennedy replacing Hillary. Andrew Cuomo was the safest appointment and probably the only viable candidate before she began expressing interest. I was even for Bill becoming senator from NY at one point. Seems ridiculous now.
OT:
I'm amused by some in the MSM saying that "some" on the left are pissed that evangelical snake oil salesman Rick Warren is to give the invocation at the inaugural. In fact, it's the entire left. They're fucking outraged. And rightly so.
BTW, I love how the MSM only pays attention to constructive criticism on the liberal blogs when it's directed at Obama. 90% of the time it's directed at them, but they choose to ignore it.
My personal opinion is, I'd have let this slide if Obama had made significant gains with evangelicals. But as things turned out, he didn't, and got less white votes than Kerry in 2004. And yet Obama STILL handed McCain and Mooseburger's asses to them. So what's the point? If Obama had made gains, then this would make sense. Regardless, Obama should be distancing himself from Rev. Rick after his Saddleback Sham, and especially after Prop 8 and his lunatic comments about Iran last month. I don't give a shit Warren wants to protect the environment. This fruitloop is the new James Dobson.
The idea of a joint appearance is a good one, but I think Larry King would NOT make the best moderator. He pays no attention to the answers he getting because he's concentrating too hard on the next question he's going to ask. I find it uncomfortable to watch King since half the time he seems out-of-it. There are lots of journalists who could do a far better job.
I think the trouble with semi-formalizing the process of non-elected appointment to public office is comes up against the problem of "where do you draw the line".
BTW, am I correct in my understanding that Clinton first would have to be confirmed as SoS whereupon she then resigns her Senate seat, and only after that her replacement can be appointed?
I am personally in favor of public servants who resign in good standing naming their own replacements. This would solve the problem of say, a president wishing to appoint a congressperson from a state with a governor at odds with that president's political philosophy but can't afford to lose a supportive legislator.
What is it with us progressives that even when a law works in our favor, we cannot be satisfied with allowing the law to play itself out?
Gov. Patterson is given the sole authority to appoint the replacement Senator for NY by the NY State Constitution. This is customary in many states and has been done many times over the years without any problems. We progressives should be happy that NY has a progressive Dem as governor who will undoubtedly make the right decision if just given the chance. But no, that's not enough. Because we don't like the person who seems to pretty much have the appointment in the bag, we have to start coming up with "better" ways to do things. This is why progressives can't get anything done. We're too busy COMING UP with "better ways" of doing things that we never end up actually getting anything done (i.e. analysis paralysis).
Can't we just let the process work the way it was written to do so, especially since we have the kind of Gov we'd want to be in place making these decisions?
Oh, and if the real problem truly is the way the Senator is replaced in NY (and other states), then why wasn't anyone making an issue of it before November?
Now I know some will point to IL as to why the Gov should not be given the sole authority to appoint replacements. But what happened in IL has NOTHING to do with the state of NY. It has to do with the INDIVIDUAL who is the Gov of IL.
I have no problem if people want to change the way the replacements are picked, but don't wait until such an event happens to begin banging the drums about it. Let the Gov do his job.
You only like 'snake oil you can believe in' right, porridgegun?
Regarding MN, people are on TV laying out the narrative that Coleman has essentially won and that Franken is looking for a way to turn it around. Sound like 2000????
There are lots of journalists who could do a far better job.
This is a MSM that has a braindead bimbo like Campbell Brown hosting a show called "No Bias. No Bull." on CNN, yet Jack Cafferty is lucky if he gets 5 minutes of airtime.
As for Larry King, he is afterall an interviewer, not a journalist. But from what I've seen of his moderating, he's no better or worse than the likes of Gibson, Stephanoplous, Brokaw, Gregory and Blitzer.
Btw, the only real journalists left in America are Seymour Hersh and Jeremy Scahill. The rest, for the most part, are just a bunch of WHOOOOORES.
I've gotta agree with PeixeGato on the appointment process. It's a legitimate, constitutional process backed by precedent. In fact the Senate seats were never intended to be a function of the people in the first place. The role of Senator was created as a representative of the political body of the state governments, not the people of the states. That's what the House of Representatives was originally for. I realize the 17th Amendment submitted Senators to popular vote, but aren't they still still considered the representatives of their state governments? Let these appointment processes play out. There are no constitutional crises here. Even in IL law enforcement did it's job, local press continues to fulfill it's civic duty (read John Kass), and the appointment process there will continue either with Lt. Gov. Quinn after impeachment, or by special election if the state constitution is amended. No need to fear folks, politics is at work. It's not as scary as it seems.
OT:
I actually half hope Coleman wins in MN. I don't see Frankin as much of a prize, and the evil side of me likes to see Republican office holders getting arrested, indicted, convicted, whatever. If Frankin wins, it'll only be the former Senator Coleman being being sent to the klink. That would not be as much (admitedly evil) fun. Of course, my good side strongly disapproves of my schadenfreude and wants a Frankin win just to disappoint my evil side.
Let's face it, TV (and radio) is all about ratings (which bring in the Ad dollars). And TV is all about image and what you look like. Jack Cafferty is "cast" as the "crotchety old man who is annoyed about everything". A "complainer" is not who the networks want on a full length show.
Campbell Brown is an attractive female and her "no bull" bull makes her look like a fiesty no-nonsense dominant woman. Add to that her looks, and you have instant ratings, regardless of the validity of what she says.
I'm just waiting for CNN or MSNBC to debut "Anchors Away! The Quest for the Next Cable News Anchor" reality show.
OpenID ihtfp said...
In fact the Senate seats were never intended to be a function of the people in the first place. The role of Senator was created as a representative of the political body of the state governments, not the people of the states. That's what the House of Representatives was originally for.
This is why I love this site. Every day I read it, I realize more and more that my high school civics class was woefully inadequate. And if you consider I took high school civics LONG before schools had to start "teaching to the test", you can imagine how little students are learning about it today. Uh oh, did I just say "oh, things were much better back when I was in school"? I think that officially makes me "old", lol.
No Porridge, they're not whores. At least a whore has the good sense to get paid for their work. These pathetic ass journalists will do it because they're afraid of being criticized if they don't.
A slut does it because they like it. A whore does it to get paid. But the media of today are neither. They're just chumps.
On-Topic:
I'd like to see Robert DeNiro on the Senate floor next year.
Off-Topic:
Massachusetts posted its certified vote count today. The added votes went approximately 36% for Obama, 10.5% for McCain and 53.5% for minor party candidates and Other.
The vote counts for all 50 states and DC are now reported as certified so we're in the clean-up phase of the vote count. The wikipedia.org site has no Other votes in 10 states including Missouri and Pennsylvania and in other states the current Other total is confined to the totals for other top write-in candidates listed by the certifying individual/body as opposed to a total for all others receiving votes. The listed Other vote count for Montana is the Paul/Peroutka total.
For the present, the valid vote count is 131,236,111. 69,460,098 (52.93%) are votes for Obama/Biden. The margin of victory is 7.26% (7.37% two-party.)
What follows is a list generated by comparing the 538 projections to the current vote count. Negative numbers indicate projections more favorable to Obama than the current vote count and positive numbers indicate projections more favorable to McCain than the current vote count. The "yes" or "no" after the numbers for the states and DC indicate whether or not the difference falls within the 538 MOE.
Arkansas -8.9% no
Louisiana -8.7% no
Alaska -7.3% no
Wyoming -6.9% no
North Dakota -5.9% no
Oklahoma -5.7% no
Idaho -4.8% no
Arizona -3.6% no
West Virginia -3.3% no
Kentucky -2.6% yes
Utah -2.4% yes
Tennessee -2.2% yes
Iowa -2.2% yes
Mississippi -1.9% yes
Georgia -1.5% yes
Kansas -1.4% yes
Texas -1.0% yes
North Carolina -0.7% yes
Nebraska -0.5% yes
New Hampshire -0.2% yes
Missouri 0.1% yes
Minnesota 0.1% yes
South Dakota 0.3% yes
Montana 0.4% yes
Virginia 0.6% yes
South Carolina 0.7% yes
Alabama 0.7% yes
Delaware 0.9% yes
New Jersey 1.0% yes
Florida 1.1% yes
Ohio 1.1% yes
United States 1.2%
New York 1.3% yes
Oregon 1.6% yes
Pennsylvania 2.3% yes
Colorado 2.4% yes
Wisconsin 2.4% yes
Maryland 2.4% yes
Indiana 2.6% yes
Washington 2.8% yes
Maine 2.8% yes
Connecticut 2.9% yes
Illinois 3.3% yes
California 3.5% no
Rhode Island 3.8% yes
Michigan 3.9% no
New Mexico 5.4% no
Massachusetts 5.9% no
Nevada 7.7% no
Vermont 12.4% no
Hawaii 17.8% no
District of Columbia 26.5% no
It's all about the pants. David Paterson is making the selection because Eliot Spitzer couldn't keep his pants on. Hillary vacated the seat because she was so popular Barack Obama had to do something with her to appease her supporters. And how did Hill get so popular? Pants suits, of course, not to mention her fortitude in dealing with Bill's chronic inability to keep his pants zipped. Caroline Kennedy wasn't interested in the seat until she realized cousin Bobby Jr. was not going to stop Andrew Cuomo. Then Caroline decided someone had to wear the pants in the extended Kennedy clan. Caroline threw her hat (not pants) in the ring to maintain the Kennedy honor in the Cuomo/Kennedy feud, a feud that started when Andrew couldn't keep his pants or his mouth zipped during a bitter divorce from Cousin Kerry Kennedy. Caroline has no known pants issues. However, it's never too late. If Caroline really wants to be a senator, it's well known that the fastest way to Governor Paterson's heart is through a pants removal process at an unobtrusive Days Inn on the Upper West Side.
Caroline Kennedy may be a public figure, but it's hard to point to prominent accomplishments, beyond what any wealthy daughter of a rich family typically does, that qualifies her for the Senate.
Is she really prepared to do the detail work of representing her constituents?
Robert,
It's all about dynasty politics. Why did Clinton think she was more qualified than Barack? She didn't have any better experience than he did. But she had her last name, and that was good enough for her. Why did Bush get elected? Had his dad been anyone other than a former President, he wouldn't have lasted a month in the primary. Why are we selecting Caroline Kennedy? It's not the Caroline part.
If you were to take a list of names of Senators and Congressmen, and redact the first names and anything like Jr, SR, III, whatever, and compare it to a list of Senators and Congressmen from 50 years ago, the two lists will be virtually identical. You've got your Gores, your Bushes, Kennedys and Stevensons. All the same names. A few new ones, like the Jacksons and the Clintons, but they'll be dynasties too.
We in America fought a war for independence ostensibly to free ourselves from primogeniture. And yet, just like how kids will unconsciously turn into their parents upon reaching Middle Age, here we are with our American Noblemen, our Royal lineages, and our nepotism.
Nothing ever changes, really. It's all dirt from the same hole.
Seriously? Larry King?
For all of you talking about dynasties - why not comment on Barack Hussein Obama, Sr. -- remind me again. Was he a Senator or something?
Get off of it. We need liberals (now called progressives by the weenies who are afraid to call themselves liberals) in Government. And I don't give a flying fig if they have a political lineage or not.
Consider yourselves lucky, here in Canada the PM appoints all Senators. Harper is about to appoint 12 if memory serves. He is going to do this prior to the resumption of parliament in Jan as his government may be defeated and the Liberal NDP coalition MAY take power.
Oh and there is no oversight when Senators are appointed, they just get the job, and have it until the age of 75.
@STepper
For all of you talking about dynasties - why not comment on Barack Hussein Obama, Sr. -- remind me again. Was he a Senator or something?
Get off of it. We need liberals (now called progressives by the weenies who are afraid to call themselves liberals) in Government. And I don't give a flying fig if they have a political lineage or not.
True, Obama isn't a dynasty politician himself, but it's really disappointing to see so many dynasties cropping up in the news recently, especially with the senate replacements: in NY, the Clinton family being replaced by the Kennedy family or the Cuomo family; in DE, a seatwarmer for the Biden family; in IL, the Jackson family and the Madigan family have been mentioned; and in CO, the Salazar family may continue to hold the seat... Not only that, but four out of seven new Dem senators who were elected this year come from political dynasties (Begich, Hagan and the Udall cousins).
This kind of thing wouldn't bother me if it was rare... but I'm sorry, this is way too much. As liberals, we should encourage a society in which people rise to the top based on merit, not family connections. There are plenty of liberals out there who have distinguished themselves with a lifetime of great accomplishments rather than famous relatives. We should simply support the best person for the job... and in a nation of 300 million, odds are that person probably won't have a famous family name.
THE MOST ERRONEOUS COMMENT OF ALL TIME
PeixeGato:
"This (governors appointing senators) is customary in many states and has been done many times over the years without any problems."
It is metaphysically impossible for a comment to be as inaccurate as this one. In fact, the comment is beyond ignorant.
There have been NOTHING BUT PROBLEMS with this system. There have been numerous governors appointing themselves, governors appointing their own children, and a governor appointing JFK's college roommate so he could "hold" the seat for two years for Ted Kennedy, who was then 28 years old.
And that's off the top of my head. There have been a lot more problems than that.
We ordinary people have been electing senators since 1913 and it is an absolute outrage that there is a loophole that has allowed governors to appoint senators when their predecessors resign.
Anyone who knows anything about government knows that power corrupts. There should be a constitutional amendment to fix this outrageous loophole.
And, by the way, we rebelled against England in 1776 because we were against monarchies.
Anyone who is "progressive" should be against anti-democratic, autocratic power -- not for it when a liberal appears to be the appointee.
Shalom,
ZWrite
(A progressive who will -- like hundreds of thousands of others -- vote GOP for the open Senate seat in Illinois if there is a special election to punish Dems for their anti-democratic shenanigans)
Caroline Kennedy for senate: I really have no problem with this because 1). She has done plenty of cool things with her legacy, and 2). Seems fairly educated and motivated, and 3). Wants to continue the Kennedy legacy.
I don't see this as a dynastic grab for power. In fact, she has chosen to keep away from that publicly and has used her influence behind the scenes to affect change. The fact that she is interested in the senate seat now is of little consequence regardless of her motivations (which I'll presume have been inspired by Barack Obama's call for real change). She seems genuine and no more or less qualified as anyone else.
My only concerns are:
1. She hasn't expressed an agenda, only that she has been inspired by Obama to have one. All fine and dandy but I enrolled in grad school under Policy and Planning with a specific agenda mostly in response to Bush policies. So that makes me better qualified because I HAVE an agenda. AND I was inspired enough by Obama to fly to Vegas to caucus for him.
2. I don't think she should be anointed to the position just because she is related to relatives whose policy the citizens approved.
3. She doesn't seem hardened enough to take on people who oppose her.
But I don't think people should view this appointment by fiat as the end of the world. If she does not demonstrate any skills or major accomplishments in the next couple of years: vote her out. How much damage can she actually do? She might even be really effective. After all she grew up in politics. Did Hillary have more credentials? Nobody disputes her qualifications.
But I think Nate's solution to gage public opinion without holding special elections is a brilliant solution for Governor Patterson. Now if we could only apply that to Illinois.
So tell me zwrite, what is it you have done (other than write on blogs) to correct this system that you say is so unjust and wrong? OR do you prefer to resort to "punishing" politicians (and indirectly the people) by voting against your best interest just to make a point?
I didn't see many problems with the appointment of Joe Biden's replacement. But then again, you sound like one of those people who always finds something to complain about.
And with all of those "problems" you mentioned, I don't seem to recall our government falling apart. In fact, the people have the chance to remove those undeserving Senators if they so desire in the next election.
Oh, and you can cut the drama and theatrics, the following statement is much more inaccurate (and even more ignorant) than anything I have posted in this blog: Water freezes at 52F.
You see, I guess it wasn't metaphysically impossible after all...
In the end, I don't believe that Gov should have such a power. If they do, then there should be a special election so the people can decide and have their elected representative in office to serve in the next Congress. But, as long as the law is what it is, I feel confident that Gov. Patterson will make a wise decision for both the people of NY and the country.
Why would Caroline Kennedy possibly put herself into the public arena for this job if she does not feel that she has the time and energy to put forth to be an excellent Senator for the people of New York? She comes from one of the greatest political names in our country and her Uncle Ted has been one of our countries greatest senator's. He has worked for so many causes that I believe in going back to the 70's and immigration reform for adopted children. I just cannot imagine that if she was not ready to do tihs and to do it with heart and soul that she would jeapordize all the Kennedy family name stands for as someone hinted at some posts back. She will be an excellent Senator and I will be extremely happy if she gets it. I am starting to feel politically like whatever I want just happens and it has been an amazing turn of events after having felt on the outside for a long time. So if things keep going my way Gov Ritter will make a great appointment here in Colorado and Kennedy is in, Coleman is out. I saw Caroline Kennedy when she traveled to Colorado with Barack and she spoke. She is a class act and will do the Senate well.
Gov. Patterson has one principal criteria. Who can be the most helpful to getting him elected when he runs for Governor. All of the other stuff doesn't make any difference.
@PorridgeGun
I don't know about the "whole" left, but if Rick Warren gives that invocation, I'm scraping the Obama sticker off my car.
@ Bob X: ...if Rick Warren gives that invocation, I'm scraping the Obama sticker off my car.
Word, brother. Saddleback Church is practically in my backyard and it gave me a giant case of indigestion when Obama agreed to have a forum there in the first place. The evangelicals pretty much run the show in the OC and they generally despise Obama, so I can't figure out why Warren is risking alienating his flock to appear at the inauguration in the first place.
Piexe: "And with all of those "problems" you mentioned, I don't seem to recall our government falling apart. In fact, the people have the chance to remove those undeserving Senators if they so desire in the next election."
What a brilliant standard!!! If our government isn't "falling apart," we should leave everything as is. Brilliant.
Einstein, there have been hundreds of books documenting the flaws of our government. If we had better reps, we'd have fewer flaws.
And I'm glad you're OK with having "undeserving senators" in office until the next election.
And you don't quite understand our system. There have been innumerable "fixes" like sons appointed to positions abandoned by their Daddies the day before and never challenged in an election (president of nation's largest county, Illinois State Senate, Illinois Congressional district).
If Caroline Kennedy is appointed and is incompetent for two years, she will still NOT be challenged. She has already locked up the money if she wants it and any Democrat who begins forming a campaign will be ostracized and driven from the party. And the GOP is dead in New York.
May I suggest you return to England since several of your posts indicate that you really don't like democracy.
Please.
Shalom,
ZWrite
And my "best interest" is a democracy that works, that is not corrupt, and rewards merit.
I would think that all Americans want an efficient, honest government rather than one which isn't but is ideologically attuned to them.
And I hate to break this to you, but writing has for centuries been a crucial way to force changes. It's important.
Shalom,
ZWrite
Well, I am cynical about elected politicians, and frankly I'd rather have Kennedy get the seat for a simple reason: She's already wealthy and has already demonstrated by both work and charitable contribution a willingness to help others for thirty years. She won't Blagojevich the seat. The fact that we've never heard her say anybody else inspired her like Obama has suggests to me she is truly inspired, these were not words spoken lightly.
She is smart and it just isn't that difficult to be a Senator, especially when your Uncle Ted and his lifelong friends are likely to have your back!
To me, Caroline has the only three qualities I really want in a politician:
(1) She proved she was compassionate when she didn't have to and long before entering the political arena as a candidate (like Obama),
(2) there is no indication or reason to suspect she is doing it for the money (like Obama), and
(3) she is intelligent and liberal (I list that is one quality because they are so highly correlated).
Qualification done.
Oops! I didn't mean to imply that Obama was doing it for the money, if you read my comment that way! I mean the opposite; Obama got wealthy without politics through publishing, and could be even more wealthy simply by employing his Harvard law degree and raking in $500K a year. He didn't do that or immediately run for state office after graduating from Harvard, and that suggests money was not his reason for seeking state office. He spent a good decade walking away from big money that could have led to even bigger money in order to help others, and that degree of unselfishness is an admirable quality in anybody.
PorrigeGun: Andrew Cuomo was the safest appointment and probably the only viable candidate before she began expressing interest.
I don't think that's the case. If the issue is holding the seat, there are plenty of people who, while not as well known, would have been (and are) extremely viable candidates. In particular, Representatives Gillibrand and Israel have both demonstrated appeal to moderates and have both demonstrated excellent fundraising capacity. And both have legislative experience (three terms for Israel, one for Gillibrand).
With the political leanings of New York these days, I think any mainstream Democrat should be able to hold the seat. That's not to say that Kennedy would not do a good job. Perhaps she would. But there are plenty of other viable candidates who would do a good job as well. The fact that they're not as well known shouldn't count against them; few people outside of Schumer's district probably knew who he was before he ran statewide.
@Rufus Rules, Porridge Gun:
It appears that the choice of Rick Warren was not made by Obama at all, but by the "Joint Congressional Committee on Inaugural Ceremonies".
From http://inaugural.senate.gov/cmte/committeehistory.cfm
The current JCCIC was established by resolution (S.Con.Res. 67) on February 28, 2008. Senator Dianne Feinstein of California, Chairman of the Senate Committee on Rules and Administration, chairs the committee. Other members include Senators Harry Reid of Nevada and Bob Bennett of Utah, as well as Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi of California and Representatives Steny Hoyer of Maryland and John Boehner of Ohio.
Joseph Lowery, whose brand of Christianity is quite different from Warren's, will be giving the "benediction", and was apparently chosen personally by Obama (who spoke to him in advance before announcing his role). I am hoping that Obama had no role at all in picking Warren, it would ease my distress considerably.
Oops. Whether Warren was Obama's choice or not, he is adopting the choice as his own:
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081218/ap_on_go_pr_wh/inauguration_minister
He claims that he is already known as a "fierce advocate for equality" for us: except, he's not. During the transition, he hasn't said a thing (while inside sources indicate we shouldn't expect him to push for anything, not even a no-brainer like DADT). This is his very first signal, and a disturbing one.
REgardiing those "polls."
Those preference polls are meaningless in a situation like this one. That X is preferred over Y by 30-28, or by 36-21, or whatever, does not mean that X is the canddiatew ho has teh best support among the public. The issue isn't who gets the most mentions, it's who is the most acceptable. Imagiine a situation with many epople contending for such an appointment. A is loved by 35% of the voters, and hated by 65%. B is loved by only 15%, but hated by 5% and is acceptable to 90% of B's p[arty's voters. If that party is the clear majrity party in the jurisdiction the party oufht to condier "last choice" at least as seriously as "first choice."
In order to understand the true dynamics of a situation like this, questions that give a much better indication of public sentiment are "last choice," an acceptability measdur for each candiadte and a combination of Name IS and favorable unfavorable (could be comobined with the acceptability score.
But then polls designed for public release are not truly about good analysis, they are for show and advertising.
I could explain this in greater detail, but since I am already long-winded enough I'll refrain, unless I get several requests to do so. If that happens, I'll spend some time editing before osting it so much of the excess verbiage can get dropped. I'm not holding my breath waiting for such requests, though.
wv=fatessn
It is our destiny that national ID cards will be required;
or,
This food doesnn't meet the nutritional pyramid guidelines.
(Since this one involves a foreign word I'll explain - essen, (German) or ess'n (Yiddish) is the verb "to eat" or a noun for food.
I have no particular enthusiasm for Caroline Kennedy, but if the alternative is The Man Who Killed Usenet, then I'm definitely for Kennedy. Grandstanding blowhard Andrew Cuomo should hold no office anywhere.
And here's looking forward to the day when we can have inaugurations with neither invocations nor benedictions.
I tend to agree with 95% or so of what Nate has to say, but there are times...
"On the other hand, Kennedy, while not an elected official, has been a prominent public figure."
This is just silly, not to mention factually incorrect. Until she stepped out of the shadows to lend support to Obama's campaign, Caroline Kennedy's whole existence has been devoted to shunning the spotlight, even though one has been thrust upon her since birth (or before). Mind you, I find nothing wrong with that -- indeed, I find it admirable for a person who *could* hog the public's attention by virtue solely of their surname to avoid doing so (Paris Hilton, are you listening?), but the fact is that she has avoided all positions that might give her relevant public policy experience. and that's fine, but let's not pretend that chairing an arts council or handing out awards in your father's memory qualify one for the U.S. Senate.
She may do just fine, and she certainly seems like a bright and interesting person, but we can't delude ourselves that anyone other than her close associates is qualified to judge.
This is his very first signal, and a disturbing one.
Bob X, I couldn't agree more.
The article you linked to stated "Obama's selection of Warren is seen as a signal to religious conservatives that the president-elect will listen to their views." Well, I am waiting for the signal that Obama also plans to listen to LGBT views. Will an equally activist representative from the LGBT community will have as prominent a role in the inauguration? Somehow I doubt it.
Rachel Maddow had a great piece on this topic tonight.
Has Rachel ever mentioned her partner Susan on the air before? It's not exactly like she's been closeted, but it had some of the feel of a "coming out".
I'm still ticked, but have promised some friends who have been "trying to talk me down" that I won't scrape the bumper sticker off my car until at least January 20. A lot could happen: Warren could be dumped-- err, express how honored and grateful he is, but suddenly remember a prior engagement to visit a mission in Chad; or Warren could apologize for his brutal remarks (OK, I'm not holding my breath for that possibility either); or Obama could realize that he needs to actually do something.
wv: I cannot "expresto" how disgusto I feel.
I don't recall Rachel ever mentioning Susan directly before, but it was great to see her make a point of it tonight. She's always been out on her radio show and in interviews so most people who watch probably already know. Awesomely cool nonetheless.
It seems the Obama camp is trying to ameliorate the Warren PR damage by stressing that Joseph Lowery will be delivering the benediction. Two problems with this: the invocation gets way more attention per the primacy effect, and as much as I respect Lowery, he's really more of a complement on the religious front than a counterpoint to the homophobia of Warren - unless he makes some crazy pro-queer speech in his benediction! (a girl can dream).
I'll try to wait to see what Obama does policy-wise before I start scraping off stickers and burning campaign t-shirts. But we're already pissed and ready to rumble in CA because of Prop 8.
I recently came accross your blog and have been reading along. I thought I would leave my first comment. I dont know what to say except that I have enjoyed reading. Nice blog. I will keep visiting this blog very often.
Sarah
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