12.23.2008

Like Smaller Government? How About 98 Senators?

With the situation in Illinois seeming to move backward, and the news today that Minnesota will require until at least early January until it certifies a winner in its Senate race, it now appears that the 111th Congress will open for business on January 3rd with only 98 members, and that condition might persist for several weeks.

It has commonly believed that, if Minnesota has not certified a winner by the time the Senate convenes, Governor Tim Pawlenty can appoint anyone he likes to fill the vacancy -- perhaps including Coleman himself! The problem with this, as John Fortier of the American Enterprise Institute points out, is that the seat doesn't become vacant unless the Senate declares it so; instead, it's in a sort of purgatory. Harry Reid also told Minnesota Public Radio today that the Senate would not require the seat to be filled: "It's perfectly acceptable for us to just wait to seat somebody until somebody is certified by the state," Reid's office said.

One interesting application of this is that I believe it will temporarily only require 59 votes to break a filibuster. The Rules of the Senate declare that a cloture motion can pass with "three-fifths of the Senators duly chosen and sworn". From the Senate's perspective, a senator will have been neither chosen or sworn in Minnesota -- nor in Illinois, unless the state gets its act together fast. And three-fifths of 98 is 59 rather than 60.

83 comments

vote4america said...
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vote4america said...

MN Senate Recount Audio: Supreme Court, Coleman Council Press Conference & SOS Press Conference

Mark said...

Gee, Nate, you make us wait all day and all you can tell us is this is spilling over into January? Oh well. Thanks for all the rest of the analyis you've provided on this, and have a great holiday!

Juris said...

@Mark: Nate is entitled to a bit of a holiday break, dontcha think?

wv: stshet (now shtetl I know!)

Davy said...

Franken by 47 as of now

Robby said...

Nate! Why are you wasting your time on this Senate nonsense, when you can put your statistical genius to real use: by explaining to us how Ohio freakin' State got into the dang BCS.

Richard said...

Congress does not convene until January 6, 2009. See House Joint Resolution 100.

David said...

Nate Silver wrote, "it now appears that the 111th Congress will open for business on January 3rd with only 98 members."

Nate, I think you might be forgetting someone; rather, 435 someones. You might want to change "members" to "senators". ;)

obsessed said...

only takes 59 now, but one of the missing senators is obama's seat

soozzie said...

Obscenely cool!

ABowers said...

The Attorney General was supposed to ask the Minn. Supreme Court today about how to count the wrongly rejected absentee ballots. My video feed did not work and I don't know what happedned. Please enlighten.
And I still cannot find out if the counties ever restarted the soring process for rejected absentee ballots.
Did you know that Al Franken, at the end of his last book, predicted he would be elected to the Senate and Congress would meet before the new Democratic President was sworn in. And they would immediately IMPEACH George Bush and Dick Cheney.
Wouldn't that be GREAT!!

JMNorris said...

It has commonly believed that, if Minnesota has not certified a winner by the time the Senate convenes, Governor Tim Pawlenty can appoint anyone he likes to fill the vacancy

Let's hope this, as John Fortier suggests, isn't true. If the seat is going to be filled by a Republican, then I want it filled by a Republican headed to the klink. Pawlenty obviously has other aims. He might very well appoint a Republican other than Coleman, and that could be the worst case scenerio.

Michael said...

"Did you know that Al Franken, at the end of his last book, predicted he would be elected to the Senate and Congress would meet before the new Democratic President was sworn in. And they would immediately IMPEACH George Bush and Dick Cheney.
Wouldn't that be GREAT!!"

No, it would be totally pointless to impeach someone who's leaving office anyway, within a few days.

livemild said...

i know there is no time limit to all this, but cant MN move just a little faster?

this whole thing has been going on way too long. today i (unknowingly) actually echoed the coleman plan to solve the dup problem by having the state check the rolls.
of course i think if any checking is going on the whole enchilada needs to be checked. none of this cherry picking.

this has got to end.

EJP said...

Meanwhile...

If for some crazy reason neither the Govs. of New York nor Colorado respectively appoint Clinton's and Salazar's replacements by January 6th, we could end up with 96 Senators and 58 votes needed to break the filibuster. Problem would be that there would be 41 seated Republicans, 2 independents and 53 Democrats...

JMNorris said...

OT:

Nate recommends Americans of means should go out and splurge some. mhz replied:

but please oh please do not buy PLASTIC SHIT at Walmart- Go to your local comic store to buy your pokemon cards! Support your local growers and crafts people.

If you, like me, agree with mhz, then this LA Times story will make you mad. I'm all for keeping kids safe from lead, but the overkill reported there will restrict the toy market to companies like Mattel who specialize in PLASTIC SHIT sold at Walmart.

wv. haybra. I like natural products, but this one is does no look like a winner.

IslandLiberal said...

There's no way Pawlenty would do something like that, and, as desperate as he is, I can't imagine Coleman going for that either; both men would be political dead men walking if they tried to short-circuit the democratic process like that.

Jesse Radin said...

This is certainly less interesting with all the personalities gone.

I mean the troll ones.

Kennyb said...

Love ya', Nate, but I am compelled to point your readers to a compelling debate between Mark Blumenthal and Mr. Mayur, of IBD/TIPP about polling (remember THAT?) and whether IBD/TIPP should be considered "most accurate" in 2008 based on their final results and late allocation of 2/3rds of undecideds for Obama. Well worth a read, including the comment about early voting.

http://www.pollster.com/blogs/hitting_a_bullet_with_a_bullet.php

loner said...
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Alex Epstein said...

Where's the fire? If it takes months to tot up all the votes, then take months to get it right. Why rush to the wrong decision? The new senator will be in the Senate for a minimum of 6 years. Democracy is worth a few more weeks.

jdizzle said...
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Davy said...

And why is the Crimson Tide playing Utah? UTAH? WTF?

loner said...

This, also from startribune.com, is more of an explanation (despite the fact that the Attorney General morphs into the Secretary of State and it isn't the campaigns that submit amended returns) of what's going on:

Making it more likely that Minnesota will have only one senator when Congress meets on Jan. 6, Attorney General Lori Swanson, several county attorneys and the campaigns of Republican Norm Coleman and Democrat Al Franken are asking the state Supreme Court for more time to process an estimated 1,600 wrongly rejected absentee ballots that the high court last week ordered them to count.

The Supreme Court had told the campaigns to submit amended returns by Dec. 31. But Ritchie and the campaigns are asking the court to push the deadline back to Jan. 2, saying they need more time in processing the ballots to ensure that the names of absentee voters are kept secret.

Under that scenario, Ritchie's office would open and count the ballots no later than Jan. 4 -- giving the state Canvassing Board perhaps a day's time in which to certify a winner before the Senate convenes.


I'd be very pleased if the Supreme Court told them they have until 4:00 PM on 12/31, but I doubt it will.

Davy said...

@Michael

Tar and feathering. Now wouldn't that be something. Or better yet, let's throw shoes at Bush and Darth Cheney

ABowers said...

Dear Loner,
Yes, the Star Trib wrote that on Monday. My question is did they in fact ask the Supreme Court on Tuesday for more time and did the Court grant it?
Obsessed with process.

KWRegan said...

The Star Tribune now has Franken's margin down to 46. Here they have a list of the 16 ballots Coleman wanted reconsidered today, together with "comparable ballots". There is considerable overlap with (the current version on Lott's site of) John Lott's FoxNews piece.

Meanwhile, I believe I can explain the exact nature of the STrib's link errors---indeed it seems two links have shifted since he (last) posted the Fox piece. The URL of the first STrib vote review link for a ballot in his Fox piece ends in

/index.php?review_date=2008-12-17&index=98

This is a database-query link, written in the scripting language called PHP which supports the so-called SQL queries. The query does not identify the ballot by name or by any of its instrinsic labels or characteristics---as was the case with their ballot links when they first set up their Ballot Challenge. Rather it is identified "implicitly" by the review_date and an index number. What I infer is that when 1 or 2 challenges were added or withdrawn, a change was made to the underlying database, but the URL did not know how to track the ballot after the change. This sort of thing is what I meant by an "off-by-1" error, and indeed at least 1 bad link is fixable by subtracting 1 from the index in the URL, jumping you from an incorrect Le Sueur County ballot to the correct Dakota County one. (I won't link it---the links may change!)

In CS buzzword terms, the problem is that the URLs use an "implicit representation", which is inherently error-prone.

WV: "blesse" (no kidding!) Le lien a' Le Sueur fut blesse'.

Forrest J. Bowlick said...

Davy, Utah is in because they're freaking undefeated.

16 team playoff. Only solution.

'wv'- butpseml. "I could pull matchups out of my butpseml and come up with better ideas than the BCS."

loner said...

ABowers—

The article (an absolute mess last updated four hours ago) includes these two paragraphs towards the end:

In their joint motion to the Supreme Court today, state and county officials and the campaigns asked for a couple more days to process the wrongly rejected absentee ballots. They suggest that any portion of the ballot that might identify the voter should not be scanned, and suggest two deadlines: Jan. 2 as the last day to deliver the ballots to the secretary of state, and Jan. 4 as the last day on which the secretary of state may open and count them.

Under the motion, both candidates would be able to challenge ballots just as they have so far in the recount process, and the Canvassing Board will decide to uphold or reject the challenge.


They're asking for a different procedure and, since (if the article is to be believed) all the interested parties agree, the court will likely okay it.

livemild said...

joan crawford's real name was
le sueur
she changed it because it sounded like sewer.

just a thought for the day

it was more colorful here with the nutty trolls and their foul mouths
just saying...

Juris said...

@kennyb: This is as close as I've seen Mark Bluenthal come to calling a pollster untruthful. If he doesn't watch it, he's going to get into one of Nate's types of fights with ARG and RCP.

wv: vatinget? (No. Farblunget.)

-EV said...

Nate,

You are correct re: "duly chosen and sworn." The result in a 98 member Senate would be a cloture threshold of 59 Senators.

Further, even if Gov. Pawlenty chose to push the envelope via a questionable appointment, the Senate is the sole judge of the qualifications of its members under the Constitution. While the Senate cannot engraft additional qualifications beyond those in Art. I (see Powell), it could probably make a legal judgment that the appointment was not valid as a legal matter. Point being, Reid & co. could probably refuse to seat the appointee and prevail if that refusal was challenged in court.

Tim Gunter said...

On top of that, who will be the senator from IL? Or NY? Or CO? We may have much more smaller government.

Kennyb said...

Yeah, Juris, they try so hard to be nice to each other, too!

jdizzle said...
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DCM in FL said...

DIZZLE

the other senate seats [NY & CO] would not become vacant until the senators resign officially which would presumably be AFTER Jan 20th or even later when they are officially confirmed to their cabinet posts...

why should Clinton & Salazar resign now when they are merely nominees ?

also, Biden said he would not resign until 1/20 +/- but at least there they have a caretaker-in-waiting

jdizzle said...
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Troy said...

Maybe I missed some news, but I thought that Clinton and Salazar weren't going to officially resign until they have been confirmed by the Senate.

They are, and will be Senators when the new Congress starts. So as far as I know, no vacancies there. Yet.

Mainiac said...

Re Illinois: The seat remains vacant because Blago has the sole power to appoint...and has agreed NOT to appoint, yes? But the problem isn't with Blago appointing, per se, it's with him SELECTING...because anyone he'd select would be under a cloud. So why has no one suggested a compromise with transparency, e.g., some entity (Illinois House? Obama? Durbin? Some combination?) selects 3, 4, or 5 names, reasonably upstanding candidates for appointment to the seat. Those names are then submitted to a second entity (Ill. Senate?) for a vote. Blago agrees to appoint whomever wins that vote. Illinois gets a US senator via a process that's fairly clean, without waiting for some resolution to the Blago mess.

Davy said...

@Forrest

"Utah is in because they're freaking undefeated."

So is the little league team in my hometown.

"16 team playoff. Only solution."

Eight team will suffice but that one we agree on. BCS outdated. Come on Prez Obama

DCM in FL said...

Mainiac

because Blago alone holds all the appointment power & that is his only leverage & it is 'f@#%ing golden'...

he is a 'Mainiac' so why would he ever agree to such a reasonable proposition [unless the G Men cut him a deal for it]

DCM in FL said...

maybe Obama will suggest that Blago appoint Rick Warren to his senate seat...

since Obama wants to reach out to the evangelicals so much...

now wouldn't THAT be symbolic ???

damm straight [pun intended]

jdizzle said...
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Kento said...

Nate, I was looking at the TED guest list, and I was surprised to see your name there! My father and I are both really proud of you!

hill.tops said...

Kento-

What does TED stand for?

Dave Brodbeck said...

@hill.tops Technology Entertainment, Design if memory serves. It is a pretty damned big deal Wish to hell I could go.

DCM in FL said...

Nate is a featured speaker @ TED conference in Long Beach, CA on Sat, Feb 7th

he is listed as speaker #1 in group 11 'Predict'

link @ TED

hill.tops said...

Can't wait until Palin and the right wing demonizes TED (ala Council on Foreign Relations, Hollywood, New York, and book learnin').

Davy said...

@dizzle

fahshizzle

They don't call them the Crimson Tide for nothing. You're gonna get handed your hat.

wv: readis - feelin' all hip hop tonite

DCM in FL said...

GAWD

just flipping past FAUX 'News' late night...

saw an ad for a holiday specialon FAUX News - 'Christmas with Rick Warren'

now that is the man who Obama wants to give the invocation...

un-fair & off-balance to the right

Robby said...

Davy - I know!!! My beloved Crimson Tide deserves better.

The better match-up would've been Boise State/Utah in the Cotton Bowl and Alabama/Texas in the Sugar Bowl (Ohio State could've played sacrificial lamb for TCU in the Poinsettia Bowl or whatever the hell that was).

jdizzle - Not likely; Utah gave up nearly 200 rushing yards to Wyoming. WYOMING. Alabama's top ranked O-line is gonna run all day (200+ yards, you heard it here first) on the Utes, and as for that "vaunted" Utah spread attack, Florida ran the same scheme, and they still needed Tim Tebow to put on his red cape to win the game. Without Cro-Magnon Superman, the spread can't beat 'Bama.

WV: mismatec - The BCS creates so many lopsided bowl games, it's almost mismatec.

jdizzle said...
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e3323 said...

In semi-related news...Intrade has had coleman between 10-15 for the past 2 days. Then again it had Blagojevich being removed from office by December 31st at 80 now its down to 7.

Also intrade has Caroline Kennedy at 75ish. What i dont understand is that you can only bet on Kennedy, cuomo and for some reason bill clinton....no other choices and no "other" option. So what happens (with intrade) if someone other than those three gets picked....does intrade just make a huge profit or what?

Davy said...

@dizzle

I actually live in Eugene so I'm a Duck now (sorry about that spanking we gave you earlier this year). But it has been nice to say 'Roll Tide' for a change. I think they could have taken Florida except for a couple of mistakes. And I don't have anything invested in Utah. But I do hope we can find a way to establish a college football championship that everyone agrees upon. Should be fun no matter the outcome.

Mrs B said...

I am really worried. In normal circumstances Statler would have been all over the last thread about Warren. No sign of him. Hope he is OK. He seemed pretty angry about Warren the last time I saw him post and was threatening to leave 538. Hope it's not so.

BTW this probably my last post before Christmas as it is already nearly lunchtime on Christmas Eve over here, and, guess what, I have a ham and a turkey and mince pies to cook and a house to clean.
Merry Christmas everyone - even MR, PK, and (so help me) EVEN Ziegler.

fred said...

Here is proof that the Warren pick is helping with evangelicals - and why picking Warren is political genius.

Pat Robertson likes Obama!

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/12/23/pat-robertson-remarkably_n_153188.html

fred said...

Happy holidays Mrs. B!

Juris said...

That's really interesting about TED2009. I'd never heard of it. If you want to attend in Long Beach -- too late, it's booked. But you can do the "overflow" in Palm Springs still (video only).

Holy cow: registration fee is $6,000! I wonder if they pay the speakers?

Now that I see the list of participants, I recognize only a few of the names (e.g., Bill Gates), but also see someone I know personally who's on Nate's panel.

fred said...

Warren is an evangelical a-hole, but you have to give him props for trying.

http://www.tmz.com/2008/12/23/rick-warren-out-of-the-closet/

taikonaut said...

There was still a way for the Democrats to get a 3/5 supermajority in the Senate in spite of Martin's loss in GA and assuming Franken holds on to his lead in MN. If Obama wasn't so impatient, he could have nominated a Republican senator to a cabinet position from a state with a Democratic governor who would then appoint a Democratic replacement and voila, a 60 seat supermajority. He wanted to include a Republican in his cabinet anyway. A moderate from a blue or swing state would be more likely to accept such a nomination.

Juris said...

That sounds like a strategy that would have veen too cute. Not to mention, one of the GOP senators he might have named (Hagel) is on his way out anyway.

BTW/ I hardly think you can call Obama impatient in naming names. There's been a lot of pressure to get the names out there, given that the current folks in charge are barely functioning.

joel said...

No republican senator would take a cabinet position if it would mean they would be replaced by a democrat. I saw some data on how senators vote with the party and Collins in Maine only voted with Bush 39% of the time so I would expect her not to be very supportive of any GOP fillibuster.
Seems pretty obvious that Franken has won the seat, just be patient and it will be one more democrat.
I`m pretty sure the vp swears in senators, now that will be a picture Cheney swearing in Franken, hope it happens before the 20th.

thatmarvelousape said...

I'm not convinced that picking Warren was a political calculation at all. I think Obama believes all that unity and common ground stuff that a few of his more hardline partisan supporters apparently thought was only a way of deceiving the masses.

Oh well, the fascist "progressives" who can't handle respectful disagreement are in the minority, so other than a few blogs alienating a chunk of their readership, this "controversy" is going to have ZERO impact.

markymark said...

Apart from Obama has anyone else formally resigned there Senate seats yet? I Know Biden has yet to, I can't remember heariong on this side of the pond if Hillary or Ken Salazar have? Are they waiting to be confirmed? Has Emmanuel even?

hill.tops said...

markymark-

no one should resign until they're confirmed. shit does happen.

Biden will resign once the new Congress convenes in early January.

Right now, Biden can't resign because of the now 50-49 make up of the Senate. If any of the Dems resigns then the republicans would gain control of the senate, and Shrub would push through some recess appointments.

Chris said...

markymark - Actually, Rahmbo's a representative, if I recall. And I think he holds Blago's old seat.

As the House of Representatives is simple majority, and the Democrats HAD a clear majority in the 110th, resigning a seat there is going to matter less.

hill.tops - Also, Biden has been technically elected to TWO positions this year - class II senator from Delaware and vice president. That may be the more pressing issue - if he resigned before the 111th convened, his appointment would have to be re-appointed in January or otherwise have a special election. Obama, who would have been up for re-election in 2010, does not suffer this problem.

At least, that's my understanding of the situation.

Also, how big are Collins' and Snowe's (figurative) balls? I know they're the left's favorite Republicans (okay, Buckley tried for that but I think he renounced his party affiliation, and I think people are still mad at Colin Powell for that little dust-up we had in Iraq even after endorsing Obama), but just because they're in the Republican caucus doesn't mean they'd toe party line in a session that'll end in a week, or a session where their own party holds little power and they represent a very solidly Democratic state. (Just as we've speculated about Landrieu and Pryor not following the Dem party line.)

...in other news, I'm looking at MSNBC (yes, the Commie Network) in the background, and did they just quote Norm Coleman as saying, "The Good Lord?" I thought he was Jewish...

fred said...

Completely off topic, but I found a great new way to find stuff on the internet. It reminds of the great old daysof Yahoo when you could search the internet by topic.

TRY IT!

www.alltop.com

The above message should not be construed as a commercial endorsement. Fred has no relationship to the website mentioned. LOL!

fred said...

I love the commie network, except for Morning Joe.

lemon031 said...

@Robby

Who would you have in the BCS over OhioSt? We're there because we deserve to be. Our losses were to the 2 Rose Bowl teams, nothing wrong with that. Our fans travel, hell the 2002 Fiesta was like a home game for us. Go Bux

wv quersl - rick warren wouldn't like this one

Davy said...

@Fred

Morning Schmoe got to go

Davy said...

PS:

The First Read guys at MSNBC proposed a BCS solution a couple of weeks ago. Don't know if they have an easy means of searching the archives or not

artigiano said...

I much prefer this site as a troll free zone. Now if we could just remove the juvenille "first" posts and the word verification jokes.

Alas, Rome was not built in a day.

TED is a major big deal. Nate, it is so great to see someone becoming famous for being the best at what they do without any hype.

just_looking said...

@KWReagan:

I didn't find too much overlap between Lott and Coleman's 16 challenges:

Both listed Hubbard, Lakeport, Challenge 1 and Dakota, Eagan, P4, Challenge 1. These were two of the three legitimate cases offered by Lott (his other 21 cases were without merit).

Both listed Wright, Annandale, Challenge 2, but this was properly an overvote.

Both listed Anoka, W2/P2 Ballot 2 and Benton County, Langola, Ballot 1. These were properly judged, used by Coleman as comparisons.

Is there an easy way to view the other ballots?

just_looking said...

I need to add one more overlapping ballot (on page 2 of the story):

Carver, Victoria, P2, Challenge 9. it was properly ruled no vote.

MNLatteLiberal said...

Coleman petition DENIED by the MN Supreme Court!!!!

http://tinyurl.com/86kwn7

~ Latte

Robby said...

lemon031

OSU has only beaten two teams currently in the top 25, and both of them are from the anemic Big 10.

Boise State, Texas Tech, TCU, and Oklahoma State are all much more deserving than OSU based on their body of work, but only Boise State (unfortunately, the weakest of those teams) is eligible due to BCS rules.

Of course, as everyone else has said in this thread, the solution is playoffs.

jdizzle said...
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Tob1303 said...

Doesn't this mean that the dems can count on 57 votes, and would have to find 2 republicans to agree and once Illinois and Minn. sit they will have 59 and only need one Republican to come over? So doesn't this actually make life harder for the first month?

egapre said...

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