9:04 EST [Nate]: A disappointing night for Democrats. On November 4th, Democrats became the de facto ruling party ... circa 2006 or so, the Dems got very good at figuring out what sort of messaging works when you're in the minority, but that's very different from the sort of messaging you have to do when you're in the majority. There's going to be a temptation in some circles to write this one off to poor African-American turnout or whatever, and that certainly is a large portion of the story. But I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010.
9:01 EST [Sean]: CNN has called the race. We think when it's all said and done Martin will lose by around 10 points. We're headed over to the Martin gathering, that'll do it for me tonight.
8:54 EST [Sean]: There just aren't enough votes in DeKalb. Saxby Chambliss will win re-election.
8:40 EST [Sean]: From where I sit, this is looking pretty pessimistic for Jim Martin. The gap is 250,000 votes with over 1,000,000 in. We know that Fulton County hasn't reported the heavy African-American precincts yet, but I'm also surprised the race hasn't been called yet.
8:40 EST [Nate]: Well, I'll say this ... this race looks to be sufficiently nonclose that Obama is looking fairly smart for staying away from the state.
8:33 EST [Nate]. Most of Cobb County in ... Chambliss won by 10.9 points on Election Day, winning by 27.6 points tonight. And turnout is fairly high there. Now, it may be the case that even within a given county, the more rural, redder areas tend to report first ... but ... frankly, I'm not sure why this hasn't gotten called yet.
8:29 EST [Nate]: But even in DeKalb, Martin's margins are materially off what they were on Election Day. On the other hand, turnout looks to be at a pretty good clip there.
8:23 EST [Sean]: DeKalb is coming in. About 14% of the precincts are in, and Martin gained 20,000 votes back.
8:20 EST [Sean]: The numbers look ominous from what's in. On the other hand, DeKalb and Fulton aren't in, and we're hearing that there are good numbers there. If the gap gets to be 200,000 before those counties report, however, that's probably all she wrote for Martin.
8:19 EST [Nate]: Sean should have more detail in a moment, but the reason this hasn't gotten called yet is because there's basically nothing in from the Democrat-heavy counties in Atlanta or the black belt. Martin, however, is going to need to do a lot better in those counties than he is elsewhere in the state, overperforming his November 4 margins and/or getting proportionately greater turnout than Martin is getting in red counties. But we're in hail mary territory at this point, at least from where I sit.
8:01 EST [Nate]: I haven't found a single county with a significant percentage of the vote in where Chambliss isn't performing better than he did on November 4. This looks like a 14 point win for him or something.
7:54 EST [Nate]: Gwinnett County: Chambliss won by 10.8 points on November 4, winning by 28.9 points so far tonight. Don't see how in the world this is happening for Martin.
7:50 EST [Sean]: For those following on the Georgia Secretary of State's site, those numbers can appear to be fully in (i.e., 7 out of 7 precincts reporting), and may still change. So keep an eye on that.
7:45 EST [Sean]: Per reports in the field, long lines in Savannah were only just finishing up.
7:44 EST [Nate]: You're in a better position than I am to know, Sean, but this looks like a good night for Chambliss so far. Take Whitfield County, for instance, which has 12 of its 25 precincts counted so far. Chambliss won that county by 31.3% on November 4, but he's winning it by 40.6% so far tonight. Those results appear to be fairly typical. If you're really scraping for good news for Martin, turnout is pretty light in Whitfield at least, extrapolating out less than 40% of November 4's numbers.
7:39 EST [Sean]: As of three weeks ago, 174 unpaid veteran Obama organizers were in the state, and more flooded the state in the final days. Estimates put the number of experienced Obama organizers at over 300.
7:33 EST [Sean]: The polls have closed in Georgia, including in two Fulton County that stayed open half an hour later. In the very earliest returns Saxby Chambliss has opened with a large percentage lead. That might hold, but until we get Fulton and DeKalb results we're not going to know for sure.
12.02.2008
Georgia Senate Runoff Liveblog
@ 7:33 PM
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137 comments
are they counting absentee and early votes in these results?
http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2008_1202/003.htm
I hope we get a list of all 20 statuses/labels for the callers.
Andrew, please do not feed the troll. Poisoning a thread by directly addressing that thing, before it makes an appearance, is classic trollfood.
Hey! There's nothing wrong with D&D! (although Mountain Dew does taste like carbonated goat piss)
Sean, please label your liveblog contributions to distinguish them for when Nate starts to contribute.
homunq,
I know...I just couldn't help myself. I cannot believe the things he's been saying lately--saying he wants to destroy this site, etc. Nate needs to bring down the hammer.
Is it just me, or does this bring back some of the election night jitters? I'm excited to see Atlanta come in!
Sorry Freaks,
AP just called the race for Chambliss.
Turn out the lights. No more commies in the senate.
I wanted Martin to win more for Max Cleland than anything else. Damn.
no way martin could ever win.
he's less interesting than his name.
chambliss could have easily been beat by a compelling opponent.
Sean, you just stomped a comment by Nate! You guys really really need a new platform.
Nate said something about it looking like a good night for Chambliss because county X had gone 31% for him and 12 of 25 precincts now go 40% for him. But turnout was only 40%.
Andrew, don't pick a fight with the troll. And leave D&D out of this.
What do you expect from a state that rewarded Bush and chose Chambliss over a Vietnam veteran who left limbs on the battlefield?
Them folks just ain't right in JawJaw!
How about a link Jack? I can't find anything on it?!?!
Nate,
I live in liberal Atlanta and people DON'T CARE about Jim Martin.
Obama supporters most likely stayed home.
Chambliss at least had a rallying cry, to stop a Dem Senate.
Shirley Franklin missed her window of opportunity.
Well, thats all done with. Oh well, we have the presidency and a large number of seats, and most moderate republicans are willing to work with us. I'll take it.
Well, I think that even the troll would agree that Martin \< Cleland, just as Franken \< Wellstone. But you run with what you've got. Here's hoping that the Lieberman Amendment (recall elections for senators whose approval goes under 30% for over 3 months running) will bite Chambliss and, in the unlikely case he wins, Coleman.
It makes sense that Chambliss get a greater proportion (than in the election) of votes in areas where he won by a large margin, it is likely that a greater percentage of his voters in these areas will be the highly motivated type who turn out at runoff elections than the whole electorate. The same should hold for areas where Martin won by a large margin. These early returns don't really tell us anything but that and won't until we know the attrition rate in Martin friendly areas.
Gwinnett County isn't uniform, so it's dangerous to extrapolate from the 40% of the precincts reporting in. That being said, it certainly looks ugly for the Jims. (Martin and Jim Powell for PSC.)
alex, you could just as easily argue it the other way around - that those who vote for a candidate despite being in the minority in their region are more likely to be motivated enough to show up for the runoff.
With 0 vote from Fulton, Dekalb, Cobb or the Athens or Savannah areas these numbers are hard to compare....it is not looking too good but if 40% vote compared to 11/4 then we will have 1.6M votes and as of a minute ago we have 332K and 17% of precincts.
Once the Dekalb/Fulton show up we will see..
Jim B.
I am in South GA at the moment, a Dem Volunteer on both Obama and Martin on the ground since Feburary an you have to know that Decalb and Foulton counties will be the last to be counted and have the largest densities of Democrats in the state. AP is a bit too early I believe. Yeah..and keep D&D out of this...(Plug for Forgotten Realms Cormyr Neverwinter Nights Persistant World!) We won the war with Barack, but this was a major skirmish here in GA...We fought long and hard!
Percentages look bad for Martin, but turnout has been low in all counties so far. And I keep reading on-the-ground reports of high turnout in Chatham, DeKalb, Fulton, etc. it doesn't look promising so far, but there's still a chance.
Jim B.
*Dekalb
*Fulton
Sorry about the spelling, I've had a very long day!
So far NO precincts are reporting from Dekalb or Fulton, the largest county in the state. So Martin will narrow the gap, but not enough.
FWIW, turnout has been good in my precinct here in Savannah (District 02) today. Sadly, Saxby will likely win even though the local Palin rally didn't garner the numbers the GOP predicted.
Keep up the fabulous work, gentlemen. This site was a triumph of clarity during the Main Event.
As for this 'mulerider'(sic) person, well--she doth protest too much. This anonymous chickensh*t, with a hardon for trolling and a fetish for this site, is just another Limbaughesque wannabe (right down the use of "folks") who can't even publicly display a Blogger profile, let alone attack others and back it up by signing their name. All mouth and no trousers.
Laurence Ballard
Contrary to earlier comments, AP didn't call the race. There's nothing on the AP website or a Google News search that indicates they did.
Jim - thanks from afar for all your hard work this election cycle.
I'm still hoping for that last minute turn around.
I'm not very invested in this race, since it never looked like Martin had a chance.
But that won't stop the lazy, Palin-obsessed MSM from claiming that she tilted the election in Chambliss' favor. That will be the worst to come out of this.
71 percent in from Cobb County, 30percent from Chatham (Savannah). Fulton and Dekalb had better be a couple of monsters if Martin is going to pull this out. Martin is only up 2 percent after the first 6percent in Fulton County.
I'm sure Obama's advisers took a look at Georgia and said that if the black vote wasn't enough to bring in the state for him in the general, that it was hopeless to try too hard in the runoff.
And that's just what happened. This one shows that Obama's got short coattails, and that the Democrats are far, far away from any sort of realignment.
On county-by-county results: I've heard some local bloggers say that the 'Republican-early areas report first' rules apply to individual counties as well, and right now in counties such as Gwinett, the Republican suburban areas report first while the Democratic inner city parts come in later. So that is probably skewing our predictions a bit as well.
Hey, Sean just overwrote Nate's addition... From my cache:
"Sean should have more detail in a moment, but the reason this hasn't gotten called yet is because there's basically nothing in from the Democrat-heavy counties in Atlanta or the black belt. Martin, however, is going to need to do a lot better in those counties than he is elsewhere in the state, overperforming his November 4 margins and/or getting proportionately greater turnout than Martin is getting in red counties. But we're in hail mary territory at this point, at least from where I sit."
And that's just what happened. This one shows that Obama's got short coattails, and that the Democrats are far, far away from any sort of realignment.
Right, because if Obama can't cause somebody else to win in *Georgia* on a night he's not even on the ballot, there's no hope for Democrats *anywhere*.
Cobb in, heavily towards Chambliss. Looks like we lose this one.
Placeholder,
Wow, talk about whistling past the graveyard! Sorry, but yes the Democrats are definitely very, very close to a realignment. Extremely likely actually since it is quite likely that Obama will enable them to add a few more seats in the 2010 election. Obama's coattails have been far and wide this election. To think anything else is having your head in the ground. Georgia is about as red-state as they come. This runoff election means little in the overall scheme as the Democrats will easily get a couple of moderate Republicans on most issues. Oh, and budget issues can't be filibustered! Sorry, you lose again. But keep whistling if you think that will change anything or make you feel better that the Repubs were severely beaten. It won't matter.
This was pretty much a pipe dream from November 5.
Nothing from Clarke County yet.
Dekalb and Fulton are heavily Democratic and also had the highest number of votes cast on November 4th. In the Senate election then Martin got 75.9% of 307,929 votes cast in Dekalb and 63.4% of 393,072 votes cast for Senate in Fulton county. Similar margins will help, but not enough.
One good thing, Sara Doyle is winning over Mike Sheffield for state appeals court judge. Mike Sheffield was endorsed by Right to Life, so with Sara leading already, I feel good that that right wing nutjob won't be on the appeals court
This is worrisome because it points out the HUGE need to localize the Obama movement. Winning the Presidency will only have lasting value if Obama can seed little Obamas nationwide.
Tonight is proof positive why there HAS to be instant run-offs, instead of these pathetic, low-turn-out jobs that invariably favor the right wing.....
syr, I am so glad that Doyle's ahead. Let's hope she wins, only 55% in now. Keeping my fingers crossed.
When we went to vote today, before lunch, there were only three other people there. I live in a county that went 27% for Obama.
wv: liccird, the state of inebriation that results from consumption of southern "spring water."
Beamman, IRV wouldn't have helped Martin unless about 95% of the Buckley voters voted for Martin.
They probably haven't called the race simply because it's a runoff and they are particularly hesitant to make any assumptions.
I doesn't look good for Martin, but I wanted to point out that merely looking at a comparison between the percentages in each candidate for each county today as opposed to November 4 is insufficient to make a call. Chambliss could outperform his Nov 4 percentage in every single county and still lose - all that has to happen is that the red counties have to have significantly lower turnout than the blue counties, as compared to November 4.
WTF Happened??
This is a shame, but a predictable one. When Georgia finally went red once and for all six years ago it went ultra red. It will take time for Democrats to develop a serious presence at the statewide level again. It was going to take a big leaguer to whip Chambliss, and we don't have one right now. Too bad, too, because he really deserved a take down.
As a resident of Gwinnett County, GA. It's difficult to describe just how racially polarized the voting is in these parts. I'd guess that 75% of the white vote or more has been reliably Republican this cycle in this area. People are SHOCKED when I tell them I'm a Democrat/Obama supporter, etc.
I'm a Georgian and there are a few things outsiders need to consider. On Election day most of the reporting on election night is heavily republican. Originally Chambliss was way ahead of Martin on Nov 4th, but in the wee hours in the morning and the next day that lead came down alot. In part democratic areas tend to report last. The early voters also tend to report last and have been very democrat-friendly votes, so I promise you things are not as lopsided as things may seem (the current 20 point separation)
With that said... the returns the returns that have come in are more heavily in Chambliss' favor than before and I bet he wins by 7 points.
sigh - I have to admit that the election of someone like Chambliss, not once, but twice, is a sad statement. I refer to the man, not the political party. I refer to the ignorance or blind party faith that this occurs in our country.
Well, MSNBC just called it for Chambliss. Oh well. Still have a chance for 59 seats.
NBC News has just called it for Chambliss. So much for a Democratic 60 in the Senate.
Looks like there's a massive white racist backlash fueling the "don't let Atlanta's blacks elect Jim Martin!"
77% of the White vote? Something is seriously wrong there. That can't be explained by anything other than angry whites resentful over Obama's election trying to fight back.
They might have been depressed on election day knowing that Georgia was going to be swamped by less redneck racist states, but now they're back in full force.
Rural Southern Whites are really just not aligned with the rest of the country right now. It's like they're living in their own universe where it's always 1963.
My prediction has long been 59 Senate seats, so at least this helps me in that way.
Still, Chamblish is a giant douche and a complete idiot. Georgia should be ashamed of itself.
O.K. folks, why did anyone think that Martin had more than a passing chance at this? Cleland won (barely) on Clinton's coat tails. While there are good parts of the state, Georgia is basically a Deep South, Republican bastion. As a jubilant friend wrote me just after Barry's win last month, "Who would have thought we'd live to see the day when the GOP became a regional Party". The bad news for Martin and other Democrats in most of Georgia is that their state is firmly in that regional Party's bailiwick.
CNN also projected Chambliss would win the runoff. I'm ecstatic because the Democrats won't reach the magic number!
Next time with an actual Democratic candidate, please.
Smitty - Sadly the US seems to be LESS party-centric than many Westminster style parliamentary democracies. When you need to elect a little-known and mostly faceless local party member to parliament just so your preferred party leader can have the numbers to become prime minister, the personality or quality of the individual member is almost entirely irrelevant.
Looks like there's a massive black racist backlash fueling the "don't let Cobb County's whites elect Saxby Chambliss!"
78% of the Black vote in the early voting? Something is seriously wrong there.
Friggin' racist.
Cugel, Georgia has two black statewide office holders - our attorney general and our labor commissioner. We ain't that backward.
There is a lot more to this defeat than racism.
So, now the cleanest path to 60 is via strategic appointment. Hello Secretaries Collins and Grassley?
Ya know, I am not going to be living here for long (only here in atlanta for school) but I have to say - they're only hurting themselves. I could honestly feel a move towards the democrats when I was living in my previous state (before the move) and I have to say - you don't feel that here for some reason.
The rural residents of GA think they are electing a senator whose primary job it is to filibuster - when they will soon find out that they have elected someone who will act in the worst interest of GA - someone who is the antithesis of the movement in this country and that is why GA has lost out on this one. This country is going to get progressively more blue on many issues and GA has seriously lost out b/c of their minority views.
It's time to whistle past dixie - there really is no hope of changing this from a red state. Just another Kansas, time to move on.
(Just to be fair - same can be said about CA & NY being blue, but I am a liberal, what can I say)
George----correct in your comments. Martin had an outside chance at best. The only reason that the Nov. 4th election was so close was because so many Georgians were upset at Senator Bum Knee for voting for the 700 Billion bailout! But Georgia is firmly in the republican orbit. Structurally, Georgia is an uphill battle for any Democrat to win statewide office. It is rapidly becoming a one-party state.
"But I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010."
I'm sure there are lessons to be learned, but considering the unlikelihood of a Democratic win earlier this year, I'm pretty proud of what Martin has done.
Pretty much resurrected the embalmed GA Democratic party.
In the words of Pepe Le Pew: "le sigh..."
Sad night for democrats...
-- Cris
My site: Obama Wallpaper Archive
But I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010.
Your Baseball Prospectus pals aren't going to like this overreaction to small sample size, Mr Silver.
"There's going to be a temptation in some circles to write this one off to poor African-American"
Well duh. It's always black folks' fault. This *is* America, after all.
When black folks vote for the wrong thing (Prop 8) - it's their fault it passes - no matter how few of them there are.
When black folks vote for the right thing, it's their fault - no matter what % of white folks vote for the bad guy.
To white folks, it's always black folks' fault. That's not news.
Who the hell votes for douchebags like Saxby Chambliss in the first place? I mean, seriously, what's their reason? Jesus?
Long-haired hippy Jesus would not vote for Saxby effin Chambliss, I can tell you that right here and I'm not even ordained.
A majority of Georgia residents evidently deserve to have their heads dunked in a fish tank.
"the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010"
I think that's the wrong attitude. Kerry lost Georgia by 17 points, Gore by about 12. McCain edged Barack by just 5. And if Sean is right on the 10 point loss, then Martin performed better than both the 2000 and 2004 Democratic Presidential candidates in GA.
If anything, the Dems need to figure out what they've been doing right and do more of it. The Republicans need to figure out how to not lose more ground, cause the ship is slowly sinking.
Well, fuck.
Not really bothered about this one. But the scum sure as shit were, otherwise they wouldn't have had all the big names campaigning for Chambliss. Minnesota was always a higher priority, this was a bonus pickup. And besides, Jim Martin barely kept Chambliss under 50% on election night. Martin was a weak candidate. He's clearly not a Jim Webb or Jim Tester, and the Obama people knew it.
That being said, there's overwhelming evidence to suggest Georgia is the most corrupt state in America, at least in terms of elections. Greg Palast wrote this state off for the Dems weeks ago, based entirely on the secretary of state, who is an evil cunt.
Oh, C'mon
This is Georgia, not Massachusetts.
I mean this is Zell Miller's state.
I wouldn't write Georgia off for the future just yet based on one low turnout runoff. If the stars align correctly Isakson could be vulnerable (is he a 2010 or 2012). Georgia is still the third state in the New South progression (Virginia first, North Carolina second, Georgie third, someone please line up now for fourth) of the combined young urban white professional + African American coalition. And a little known, underfunded, solid but unspectacular state Senator managed to come close on Nov 4th. Lessons for next state wide race:
1) Recruit someone with high name rec who can get 50+ in the primary so that you settle on a nominee relatively sooner. Martin might even be that guy with the name rec boost this gave him.
2) DSC money sooner would be good.
3) And keep up the voter reg/ground game.
All those things are seperate from the national environment and could make the road easier in the future,
Told you so. Though I consistently held out hope, I always thought that Martin had no chance and that the runoff would be a bigger gap than the general election. I just need to respond to placeholder here:
"This one shows that Obama's got short coattails,"
No, it actually sort of shows the opposite. When Obama was on the ballot, Martin came within 3 points. When Obama was off the ballot, Martin lost miserably. It can be complicated to understand because Martin did better than Obama in the general, but that can be attributed to race, Martin possibly being more moderate, etc. It's still true that Martin did much better with Obama's help.
"and that the Democrats are far, far away from any sort of realignment."
Losing GA doesn't mean Democrats are far away from realignment. Democrats won VA, NC, CO, NV, IN, IA, etc.... GA is always very reliably republican. Your logic is like saying, "the democrats lost in Wyoming...therefore there is no evidence of realignment!" FYI I was going to use Alaska in that example, but the democrats won that senate seat afterall (granted it took the republican incumbent being convicted as a felon.) I'm not going to say that the 2008 election proves that there definitely has been realignment either, though. I think we have to wait and see, and it depends on how successful Obama and congress are in coming years. It's just that your logic was extremely laughable.
Let's go through this issue by issue.
1. Advertising. Name one state this cycle where Republicans outspent Democrats in the Presidential or Senate races... I can't recall one. Yet, in this runoff, Martin was getting killed on the air.
2. Star power. GOP sent their most popular politician, Palin, down to GA to barnstorm for Saxby. Obama rightly stayed away.
3. Demographics. GA is a state that has trended Republican since the Clinton days. There are opposing forces in GA in the future as both the conservative suburbs from SEC land and the hipper city of Atlanta grow. Outside of Atlanta, GA is a large state with lots of conservative farm and small town areas. GA is not VA or NC. It's hard for any Democrat to win statewide here, and especially a frankly bland politician like Jim Martin.
So overall, Martin overperformed on election day purely due to Obama. He didn't really outrun Obama on election day like better candidates such as Kay Hagan and Warner did, he pretty much mirrored Obama. This doesn't really say much except for a return to the mean in a Deep South state,
I never heard any compelling reason for Georgia voters to be excited about Martin, while the "firewall" campaign of Chambliss was very effective. Martin's only chance for victory was on 11/4. This was just too important for the Republicans to lose. On the bright side, it's pretty pathetic that this is what they hang their hats on after a devastating election season.
It would have been better to lose this on November 4 rather than tonight. In a way I was hoping for no runoff here. This is a stinging defeat--I just hope this isn't a harbinger of a 1994-like 2010.
The Pits: Georgia's GOP Swipes the Peach State
by Greg Palast
The evil little &*%$'s are doing it again.
Even as they drown in the anger of platoons of pissed-off voters, Republican operatives are swiping ballots with both hands.
Ground zero is Georgia. It's here where the sick little vulture named Saxby Chambliss won the US Senate seat six years ago by calling his Democratic opponent, a guy who'd lost three limbs in Vietnam, a friend of Osama bin Laden.
There's no way in hell that Chambliss can slime his way back into the Senate in the face of over half a million newly registered voters (Black and young - 69% for Obama) without jacking them out of their votes. That's what the Republicans are up to. Right now. As we speak.
Over 50,000 the new voters in Georgia have been blocked from voting by using a nasty little new law, the Help America Vote Act signed by George Bush. (Bush is helping us vote - look out!)
I just got this from Christina Rush in the Peach Pit state:
"They really have stolen my vote and I don't know what to do about it at this late stage. I just found out 2 days ago that I do not exist on the voters rolls in Georgia. I have disappeared. After calling 866-OUR VOTE and the Secretary of State (for GA), it has been determined that the last vote I was accounted for was the 1996 General Election. That's awfully strange to me, considering that I voted in the recent Primaries and that last two General Elections (2000 and 2004)."
"Everyone is 'very sorry' this is happening, but no one can tell what I can do to make my vote count for THIS election. The only advice I've been given is to fill out a new voters registration form and I'll be eligible for any future elections, just not THIS one."
"So, what can I do except tell anyone and everyone who will listen?"
And no one is going to listen to you or the other 50,000 dumped voters in Georgia.
But here's the good news: it won't save them. The GOP is toast. Paint the White House black and blue and Congress the same hue.
But the steal in Senate races may allow the GOP to savage, obstruct, sabotage President Obama's ability to repair the damage of eight years of looting by the unelected junta of the Bush regime. They begin with the theft of the Georgia Senate seat, now heading into a run-off.
* * *
I've been studying the purge of voters and the blockade of new registrants all year with my co-investigator, Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Here's what we know is happening: While Obama is brushing his tux for his Inaugural, several million votes are getting disappeared. We're awaiting the count on provisional ballots, those bouncing baloney ballots they give to the purge, The raw data is ill-making. We predicted a six-million vote heist and we're looking grimly accurate. Visit our site, www.GregPalast.com, to get the full report as the numbers come in - the totals of the UNcounted you won't see on the CNN website.
Noooooo!
Saxby is a disgusting person.
Martin just never had much of a chance of winning this runoff and that should have been obvious from the get-go. For a democrat to win the Senate in Georgia, it's going to take a MUCH more compelling candidate than Martin. Nice guy, but hardly a heavy hitter. Max Cleland would actually have done MUCH better had he chose to run again.
Obama's political instincts are not to be trifled with and he was on the money on the call not to go to GA (I'm sure it wasn't even a close decision for him).
I'm sorry, but LOL to people (including Nate) that think this is any kind of referendum on Democrats in general or Obama in particular. Republicans were rightly more fired up for this runoff in a state where the had the numbers anyway. I think the true moral of the story is that the Democrats need to develop better candidates in states like GA if they expect to win.
This was the first election on the way to 2010. This was a blowout win for Saxby. I see a huge reversal in 2010. The electorate does not want an all dem. government.
I think it would be laughable if Obama is taking advice from Bill, that he should govern from the center/right if he wants to win re-election. The Kosians will be spitting up like rabid dogs.
I hope Jack-Be-Nimble cried on Nov 4th
My god Jack- get out of Rep delusion land.
First- plenty of voters have evidentally wanted an all Dem gov't since 2006, indeed apparently a majority. This majority has been mostly outside the south where this election happened.
Second- This was off cycle, low turnout where the GOP threw everything they had at it and all they had is "We are the party of saying no and Sarah Palins high heels".
Third- Even if this is a center right country the GOP's clear trend has been that they don't give a crap about finding the center and only care about trying to drive the right out. Thats why the bulk of independents and moderates have been tilting center left recently diverging from the Republican platform of right-ultra right.
My way too early predictions for 2010 is still that the Dems have a nul year/ minor loss with pickups on the last favorable map in the Senate (2000-2006 was supposed to be a Dem defence/Rep offence class and will be more so in 2012 because Dems defied the map and took marginal ground;2002-2008 was a Rep defence/Dem offence map and the Dems played their offence well while the R's just stopped a running up of the score here;2004-2010 is another Rep defence/Dem offence map because even if the electorate is less left wing than 2008 it will take a massive national lobotomy to be more right wing than 2004).
jack, you're sniffing glue. LOL
The scum are shitting themselves. Mooseburger and Jingle are fringe regional candidates who are unelectable nationally. They know they're gonna lose more seats in 2010. That's why Mel Martinez is jumping ship now to give them a better shot of holding onto the seat. Even if Obama's has Bush-like low approval ratings in a couple of years, and the scum ineplicably have a huge comeback, the Dems will still have a bigger majority than they've had in the last 15 years. At the moment it's looking like 59-41 in the senate, with a few RINOS to play around with. And with a President with a 70-80% approval rating for the first 100 days, what do you think is gonna happen, dipshit?
make that nul year.minor loss in the house and a couple pickups in the Senate. Blah.
Put the crack pipe away, Kosians. You are about to see another Bush in the Senate. That's right, Jeb is running for the vacant Mel Martinez seat in Florida.
You can count that seat as an automatic save for the GOP.
Bye-Bye suckers.
Debbie Wasserman Schultz for Senate, 2010
That's gonna be a tough race regardless of who runs on either side
Obama's instincts are proven impeccable by the results of this contest. Not in not pushing for Martin in person but by setting up his cabinet in the manner he has. Its obvious that he is attempting to create a governing coalition. 58 Dems + Sanders and Liebermman (see why it was important to keep Joe happy) would have been great. But the reality is that getting things done will now require the co-operation of the Maine Republicans and maybe Lugar and Specter. It would have been nice if Obama could have found a cabinet post for someone like Lincoln Chaffee. But even barring that the Senate leadership should give the few remaining moderate Republicans a big say in any healthcare and economic questions that will be coming up. They won't filibuster their own bills.
If Obama can keep the perception going that he is serious about dealing with our national problems, 2010 should be a good year for Democrats in the Senate. It is a fair probability that we can get our filibuster proof majority then. But until then forming coalitions with the non-crazy wing of the Republican Party is paramount.
The triumphant return of Jack-be-numbskull!
I hadn't gotten my hopes high from the get go for Martin success. It was obvious from the beginning that his lack of leadership and disorganize campaigning would lead to heavy defeat. The least I can say is I managed to cast my absentee ballot for the spirit of democracy.
The only good news out of this run-off has been an election of Sara Doyle for GA Appeals Court rather than that Christofascist nutjob, Mike.
Jack-be-nimble said...
Put the crack pipe away, Kosians. You are about to see another Bush in the Senate. That's right, Jeb is running for the vacant Mel Martinez seat in Florida.
Right, Jack, because the Republicans apparently can't win the Presidency without a Bush or Nixon on the ticket... so you'll be running a third Bush (fourth if you count Prescott) for the Senate in an attempt to groom him for '12 or '16. Brilliant!
At least you're honest about the GOP's failure to run viable non-Bush candidates while the rest of the GOP "base" is all breathless about Mooseburgers and Jindal.
Jack-be-numbnuts said...
You are about to see another Bush in the Senate. That's right, Jeb is running for the vacant Mel Martinez seat in Florida.
You can count that seat as an automatic save for the GOP.
Bye-Bye suckers.
That's kinda my point, moron. Unfortunately for the scum, there's even more potential pick-ups for the Dems in 2010 than there were this year.
Btw, even the FReeptards don't refer to kossacks as "kosians".
It's amusing how the crazies are celebrating holding onto a seat that was always a longshot. Like I said, Jim Martin wasn't a Webb or Tester. If he were, he would have won by a Kay Hagen-like margin.
@Jack-be-nimble:
"The electorate does not want an all dem. government."
What the electorate wants will depend on the country's progress (or lack thereof) over the next two years.
If the next two years show an improvement in the country's situation, the Democrats will continue to register gains (albeit smaller ones) in the 2010 elections.
Your comment is self-contradictory; if the first part is right (about the country not wanting Democratically dominated government), then Obama would do well to at least listen to Bill Clinton, whatever the net-roots think about that. Obama will be listening to a lot of people, including some Republicans, over the next few years; the country will be better for it, just as the country would have been better served if Bush-Cheney et al. had taken the opinions of Democrats into serious consideration.
I too vote for some sort of moderation of postings here. The worst problem is the trolls, the second worst problem are those posters who argue with the trolls, and third worst are those people who think they can reason with and reform trolls. Lastly, and still bad, are those posters who implore everyone to just ignore the troll.
The answer is not ignoring trolls--it's getting rid of them as soon as they post.
Actually Statler Jack and Mule are two well established R trolls here. Mule used to be a semi topical thinking poster but gradually descended into madness to the point that all he can do now is insult posters and Nate/Sean.
Jack-be-nimble is and always has been a Rep talking points drone who tends to be semi topical and hasn't changed much.
Right Wing Conspiracist was a non-topical republican talking points machine that might not pass the Turing test.
Pete Kent is a non-topical cut and paster of right wing talking points, the original is believed to be a Puma but has many imposters some of whom promote a cult of Sarah Palin.
He was a super manly member of the Marine Core (Simper Fi) who poled his buddies and they would never vote for anyone named Hussein.
One of the multiple Michaels might be the only thinking rational non-talking points Republicans (excepting Obamacons) left on the site. Virginia Conservative used to fit that role but he left to run a semi-affiliated forum and went mad with the bannings (for being Dems apparantly) as things started to head south leading to election day.
I might have forgotten one of the consistant conservatives here, but there really isn't much so people tend to jump on someone and try to get reasoned debate even if they know that these posters have no demonstrated capacity for rationality.
I miss Real Joe
Statler:
In an earlier post you mentioned the GOP proclivity for claiming victory even in obvious defeat. This is a trick learned in the 20th Century and practiced by all the great, odious despotisms of that era. Probably the most adept was Goebbels. During the war German citizens had no idea what was going on besides what they could see with their own eyes; thus the slavish support for Hitler even when it was obvious to everyone else that the Third Reich was doomed.
Same is true of the fury whipped up in the Chinese "Cultural Revolution".
Speaking from another Red state let me tell those advising GA to get a better candidate it is easier said than done. Where the Repugs have held every statewide office for a decade there is no bench to draw from. No experienced candidates from Justice of the Peace through County Commissioner. Without these developemental offices the chances of a State Rep having the organization, money, name recogition to win a Governor or US Senator are very low.
While I can understand the vitriol against Chambliss for his shmuck-y behavior in the 2002 campaign (though probably a little overblown), but why would anyone want to actually avenge Cleland?
I mean, seriously, what's worse, acting like a complete tool in political campaigning or voting for a war that you have misgivings about because you're worried about being reelected, as Cleland admitted? I'd love to see Saxby Chambliss out of Senate, but let's not go on the cross for Max Cleland.
Wow...Georgia, you disgust me. Voting for that filth Saxby.
larry-
I understand and that is sometimes why a complete civilian like Jim Webb (former Reaganite navy man who soured on the Iraq war and ran for VA Sen) or Charles Barkley (is he running for AL Gov? basketball) and jump to the front in a state with a thin bench (and even in states that should have decent benches an Al Franken can happen) based on name rec. If the DCCC can find a Georgian with enough celebrity without notoriety that might be one path.
However, the path that must be avoided in the future is a bunch of little known politicians running against eachother in a tight primary resulting in a minority but conservative candidate (Vernon Jones) falling short of 50% forcing a primary runoff which the little known state Senator who came in second (Jim Martin) wins but late in the cycle when all the other races already have a semi-solid shape and the DSCC has already allocated many resources elsewhere. Jim Martin snuck up on everyone with a late surge that was partly bailout, partly gas shortage and partly the surprise of not Vernon Jones. The DSCC only invested late but the money could have made more difference here than say the money poured into Mississippi for Ronnie Musgrove. The GA dem party needs to recruit someone who can win the primary on the first ballot next time so they don't lose time to campaign and fundraise again.
Once again, we must refer to the age-old rule of fivethirtyeight.com, DNFTT.
Are we shocked that Martin performed so poorly in the runoff election? Does it say anything about the 2008 presidential election? Is there a crisis?
Everyone needs to walk away from the ledge.
wv: lacsome
in 2008, the democratic party lacsome senators for a fillibuster-proof majority
Nate,
WTF are you talking about, with Democratic messaging? So we lost a Senate race in a Red state. Big surprise.
The red states really turned out not to like us very much in the end (Musgrove, Martin, Lunsford, Landrieu winning by way less than expected).
Oh well, 2010 is a prime pick-up year, and Franken is catching up in the recount.
I have to agree with Jonathan. WTF, mate? This wasn't a shift in public opinion: it was a confirmation of the results of the November. Chambliss had a clear plurality of the vote then, with Martin actually over-performing due to high Dem turnout and early voting.
This was a completely foreseeable result, and in no way a repudiation of Democrats' supposed new messaging (what new messaging is that, by the way?)
Nate,
again, Jim Martin is a terrible candidate who only got into a runoff b/c of Obama.
while there was national interest in this seat, there was very little local interest. this was rarely even front page stuff for the AJC.
i don't know why you're trying to infer anything from this. anybody in GA would have told you Martin had zero shot.
Two hours later, I'm still shocked at Mr Silver's overreaction at this. It's embarrassing.
Statler
I invoke Goodwin's Law.
Regards and Good Night.
Commiserations, 538-tards. Congratulations, Sexy.
And to President-elect Jindal, 2012!
But I think the Democrats need to think carefully about what went wrong here as they begin to gear up for 2010.
Dude: It's freakin' Georgia, for goodness sake. Let's not get too worked up over not taking a Senate seat from an incumbent Republican in a genuine snake-handling red state, mm-kay?
I agree with Nate. This result was in fact a major bummer. The reason is that our D turnout slipped so much compared to the R turnout. That's kind of a regression to the long-term differential turnout pattern. We were hoping that our major ground-game, phone lists, etc. plus a widespread sense that politics matters might have ameliorated or even reversed that pattern.
So there's still definitely something we need to address.
One possibility- if some real material result (health care) can be produced in the next two years, maybe more of our folks will know that every senator counts in their own lives.
WTF was Sean smoking to think this was still a live race this afternoon? Even Nate's late post forecasting a 10-point loss was grossly optimistic. Looking like 14points with 99% in.
I've lived in Georgia for a loooong time, and people were really deluding themselves if they thought Martin could win this runoff. Georgia is still very red, and to think that a relatively unknown Democrat would beat an incumbent Republican, even with the big Democrat shift countrywide, was seriously deluding themselves.
It's hard to knock off an incumbent, period. It's harder to knock off an incumbent of the party which is by far in the majority in that state.
Looking at where the Democrats picked up their 7 (and possibly 8) Senate seats, none of those were in states as politically tough as Georgia. The Democrats did best where one thought they would have done best; the question was where the cut-off would be, and it appears to be KT and GA.
This race wasn't even on the radar until October. So I don't see any serious failure here.
The liveblog thing always sounded like fun, especially on school nights. Here's another one from the Minnesota side.
Clarissa, you did forget one good one: FloridaGOP. Always an upstanding, reasonable gentleman.
Leftwing Michael in New York
wv: diess. Iz diess a Qvestion?
Where was Obama?
What democrats did wrong was think they could win a runoff in this state. Martin lost his chance on Nov 4th.
Southern states designed this runoff structure in order to keep blacks from winning an election by plurality.
If there are any lessons for 2010, it's not to take any seats in the 2004 red states for granted. They are the ones most likely to constitute a backlash against Obama if the economy doesn't do any better.
Repubs guaranteed always to win big in states where the average voter's waistline is numerically slightly larger than his/her IQ.
Note to GA dems next time: please come up with a candidate who actually has a pulse.
Thanks...
The problem here isn't that the Democrats don't know how to message when they're in power. The problem is they became the de facto ruling party a month ago, but currently have zero power to enact their ideas because Bush would veto it--look at CHIP.
So the Democratic Party became the de facto ruling party a month ago. The economy is in upheaval, and people want real relief. But nothing can pass yet, and all that is happening is the unpopular Bush Bailout.
It's pretty hard to develop a successful message for being in power when you haven't had one day to enact important legislation...That's why the message was off. It's also why this always happens--look to 1992, same thing happened in the same state.
oh please, Nate...you are sounding more like a concern troll than Rachel Maddow. What happened was Obama didn't campaign so as to keep his above politics bipartisan mantle, most GOP heavy hitters did, including the pit bull and grampa, and the turnout was low, with a motivated GOP base trying to stop a 60 seat Dem senate, and Chambliss got the vote of the absent libertarian. Plus Georgia is one of the few states that has turned redder recently, part of the racist rump of appalachia and the deep south. The Dems want to take a good look? Have Obama actively campaign places he wants Dems to win.
Nate:
Do you want to take back your 14 point comment at 8:00?
It looks like it's going to be 14.8, not 14.
C'mon. Nate, we expect better from you!
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