It's runoff day here in Georgia, and we're ensconced in Jim Martin's boiler room. Polls close in two hours, and we'll find out shortly who has more mojo bragging rights, Sarah Palin or Ludacris. The weather is great and the ballot is short, with only this race and a Public Service Commission race.
Yesterday we learned that the Martin contact rate during GOTV has been impressively high, with up to 1,000 contacts for 1,500 attempts. According to that source, who knows numbers from working through previous Georgia Democratic voter files, this is just a stunning improvement. What those numbers imply is that the influx of organization will allow for the efficient channeling of volunteer dials and knocks. Where labor fills in, the campaign knows who and where the voters are. Unlike the Obama emphasis on early voting, the Martin campaign did not do a gigantic absentee push, instead opting for a big December 2 turnout.
As of last night, according to Martin spokesman Matt Canter, 2,500 volunteers had signed up for the online neighbor-to-neighbor phonebanking tool. Word is that this number has been smashed, beginning early this morning. In addition to and separate from the online phonebanking volunteers (from anywhere), 3,200 on-ground volunteers have deployed around the state for Runoff Day knocking and calling.
Among other tasks, right now, the boiler room is fielding reports about what percent of turf has been canvassed in various areas. The field teams pipeline up their data -- such and such number of calls, such and such percent of walk packets have been walked -- and the field team makes decisions about whether and where to reallocate canvassers.
The voter protection group is busy in another wing of the boiler room location, and the word is things have gone fairly smoothly today. Reports this morning about the Secretary of State's website being briefly down (polling locations are on the site) were handled, and the website has been up and running since the reports.
The candidate himself has been busy with radio and TV appearances today, and we caught up to him briefly at the IBEW union hall just south of downtown Atlanta this afternoon, where at least 100 workers were busy doing Runoff Day GOTV.
We'll have an update in a bit and as things happen. We're being somewhat careful about what we report, as boiler room is delicate and unusual access and we're handling it accordingly. (They made sure to say that if you're in Georgia and reading this now and haven't voted, go vote and come back and read later.)
12.02.2008
Georgia Senate Runoff 5 PM EST Update
by Sean Quinn @ 5:00 PM
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If this runoff gets close it will be a testament to the quality of the organizers/organization in GA.
Too bad, as Chambliss is so dispicable.
Thank you for posting this update, Sean. Personally, I'm hoping for a miracle created by the exceptional organizers.
Two hours seems so looong!
Someone pointed out that in the last second of Chambliss's Thanksgiving Ad, his right hand gets a little wayward with his 10 or 11 year old granddaughter.
[url]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yqFyFeNDkI0[/url]
being foreign, I don't know what a Public Service Commission is - can someone enlighten me? Also, why did that race get rerun?
And also, from a previous thread on Palin in GA, someone posted that there was something funny about the sign in the photo of the rally that said Woman (heart) Sax, and I have been driving myself insane looking at it - WHAT IS ODD ABOUT IT?
Public Service Commissions: An elected or appointed board which regulates local utility activities, especially rates -- i.e., natural gas providers in many areas of the country must have a PSC approve rate hikes. Occasionally they say no.
Georgia race is being runoff because Georgia laws have certain offices required to have the winner win a clear majority (50% + 1) in a primary or general election. In the Democratic primary, for example, Vernon Jones came out with the most votes, but still under a majority, and in the runoff, Martin won.
Don`t kid yourself, Chambliss will win by 6-8 points. The GOP has spent a fortune making this race all about Obama in a state he lost.
My sister in law lives in Georgia and she says they are equating a democratic win with total control by Obama.
Anyway 70-75% of white voters will vote for Chambliss and with a smaller AA turnout than on 11-4 it won`t even be close.
Still I figure if Obama is popular no republican who is in a competitive state will try to filibuster him for fear of voter retribution.
The reality if republicans lose a senate race in the deep south they may as well disband!
It seems like all of 538's reporting of this runoff has been from the Martin side. Didn't Chambliss organize, too?
I still hope I'm wrong, but I don't think Martin has a chance. In fact, I think the margin will probably be a bit bigger than it was on Nov 4th.
Martin should lose this race based on all the measures we've seen. Our only chance is if the measures are wrong. Lets say based on the polls Chambliss has a 5 point lead, but many of the people who are polled don't actually vote because its just a run off. Meanwhile, the Obama ground organization nags the hell out of Democrats to go to the polls, while Republicans feel its "in the bag."
Martin should lose, but I'm holding on to that 10% chance that the polling doesn't reflect who is actually going to vote.
PS where's that F-Tard Mule Rider? Must be a Babylon 5 Marathon on the Sci-Fi channel or a Dungeons and Dragons tournament going on!!!
@andrew:
As a fan of B5, I resent that remark. To paraphrase a line from that show, shouldn't Mule Rider be attending some Bund meeting?
Mrs. B,
Women (heart) sax? LOL...
I didn't see the sign, but my guess would be that it's a play on words...i.e., women love s-e-x, vs. s-a-x...
StandardbredRider
...with Sax being 'Saxby'...it could even be a double entendre, short for 'Saxophone', which is considered to be a 'sexy' type of instrument.
Woman (heart) Sax is the new "Lizard People".
Andrew lay of the Dungeons and dragons players as well. No reason to hate on us. Please do not just throw DnD out there anytime you want to insult someone. It is actually a fun game and many of the people that enjoy playing it are smart and socialable people.
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