It hasn't really sunk in yet: Barack Obama will be the next president of the United States. A newsroom may be one of the worst places on earth to appreciate this sort of moment. But what a moment for our country. Crowds are mobbing the White House (in a good way), reportedly.
11.04.2008
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115 comments
boo!
YAY!
For the first time I believe in my country's leader. For the first time I feel inspired.
Enjoy it, everyone - and thanks for babying us through this, Nate!
State of my youth, Indiana, is going blue. And so is Kenosha County, WI, where I canvassed. I'm happy.
Thanks to Nate, Sean and Brett for everything.
I have never been more proud, happy, and excited in my life. This is the first presidential candidate that I was actually excited for (i.e., not just voting against the other guy). If this is what democracy is supposed to feel like, then it feels great. Because it feels right.
I love you nate! Your sanity has helped keep me sane during this campaign. Thanks so much.
Olympia, Washington
The police just closed off part of downtown for a party, since there were so many people in the streets!
It is a wonderful thing!
If Indiana goes blue and every other state goes red, Nate Silver will have predicted this election TO THE ELECTORAL VOTE.
thanks for all you did through the election nate
I'm in shock (in a good way). I've never been this proud of an election result in this country. I had a conversation with my sister earlier in the day, never mentioning the election but we discussed health care (she went in for tests for breast cancer, negative fortunately) then we talked about what colleges her bi-racial kids were considering, Cal (my nephew) and Stanford (my niece). this election touched so many different aspects of our conversation without either of us bring up the subject directly. I kept thinking in my mind that now I can really believe that my nephews and niece can do anything they want!
this is so strange..I actually feel so proud to be an American. Woohoo!
I'm betting W has the curtains drawn.
Real Joe's surprise?
Real Josephine.
I am so happy Intellectually, but I too have not FELT this. I think it will be Obama's speech that will do it. But I am so happy about the next 4 years!
"Wow
It hasn't really sunk in yet: Barack Obama..."
Wowo, it hasn't really sunk in yet: the model looks like it will have predicted 50 out of 50. WOOHOO!!!
As-salamu alaykum, A the B!
And I'm so proud of you too Big Brother!!
Sis
This has been my daily stop before I went to bed for the past umpteen weeks. The insight your team provided was incredibly valuable.
Pat yourself on the backs for a job well done.
First African American president of ANY INDUSTRIAL COUNTRY.
WOW! Hard to contain the emotions.
He is going on the stage...
I've been obsessively following the campaign and your blog from the UK for the best part of a year.
Thanks Nate! And thank you US citizens for working so hard to elect Obama as president. Obama '08 :)
President Elect Barack Huessin Obama!!!
WOOHOO!!!
BALLS EXPLODE!!!
sorry Nate, it's gonna be more than your prediction. And guys thanks for the tremendous work!!
btw where's the real joe surprise??
Thank you, guys, for helping me preserve my sanity through this.
Tony Asaro said...
For the first time I believe in my country's leader. For the first time I feel inspired.
________________
I SO AGREE...I've tears in my eyes
My daughter works for the federal government, and is one of the ones "rushing the White House) -- to sing "God Bless America."
There is yelling all along the streets here in NYC. Pure joy!
Nate, what a fantastic job you've done with this site. Your analysis has been illuminating, and your presentation has been informative. Thanks a million for all your effort.
But how does this affect Joe the plumber?
All I can think of is Yakov Smirnoff's line:
"What a country!"
Big thumbs-up to you too, Nate...
Congrats to all who on this site who have been my web buddies for weeks now... and to you Nate, you show the what the future of this nation can be - smart, logical, youthful in spirit and promise and above all wise in the beautiful way your site showed us the nobility of this nation from state to state.
Your site is the embodiment of what the Obama movement is.
Much love to you.
Now, does anyone have a read on the Zogby track for tonight??
it's 5am in London and it has very much sunk in, going to be an interesting day at work tomorrow. Will let you know if people are more positive on the tube.
What a surreal moment.
Pret-t-t-y darn good.
Free at last, free at last!
Dear Nate:
I want to kiss you on the mouth. Apologies for any partner or significant other I may offend... it's just such a night! And I've drunk an entire bottle of champagne, so please excuse the excessive desire for PDA.
I once dated a guy (I am female) who worked for Stan Greenberg. I am soooo much more attracted to you! OK, maybe it's the champagne talking... repeat prior apolgies.
What the hell am I supposed to do without fivethirtyeight?
On a more serious note, a simple thank you to Nate, for keeping me on the closest thing to an even keel that I could achieve during the campaign.
Tears of joy and relief here! And I'm so happy that Indiana, my home state, is going blue!! Woo Hoo!!
"Crowds are mobbing the White House (in a good way), reportedly."
Ha ha. I just checked DCist and they're talking about how people just poured out into the streets after Obama won.
Makes me wish I'd gone into the city to watch the results. But whatever, we partied at my house and then danced in the streets.
Ahh! I'm just so freaking happy.
And Virgina <3. Thank God. I'm so proud of my state and my country and everyone! YES!
It hasn't quite sunk in for me yet either.
I wish I had someone to celebrate with! All my Obama supporting friends live far away. :(
Oh well. I think I'll take a walk. A happy, cheerful, joyous walk.
Barack Hussein Obama. Our next president. HELL YES.
It's nice to have hope.
For he to-day who sheds his blood with me, shall be my brother.
Thank you, 538. Thank you to my fellow voters, phone-bankers, canvassers, and ride-sharers.
This day will be remembered by all of those who came after us. And tonight we remember all of those who came before.
Yes, we can. Yes, we did. And yes, we will.
Wow! Nate Silver you have been my truth and sanity and I thank you. Now I know that the 23+ years I spent in service to my country was founded in truth. This IS the country of promise and possibility!!!! God bless all of you like minded people here on fivethirtyeight.com, God Bless America, and God Bless President Elect Obama!!!!
"We as a people will get there". Nice touch.
Abraham Lincoln. Ulysses S Grant. Adlai Stevenson. Everett Dirksen. Now, Barack Obama. I'm proud to be an Illinoisan.
So now what'll you guys do?
I watched McCain's speech and now I can finally start to believe it is true.
CONGRATULATIONS PRESIDENT OBAMA!!!
thanks nate. this has been an amazing experience. now i can get back to my actual life. thank fuck for that. President Obama (DAMN that sounds good) carries the hopes of the world. I hope his shoulders can take the weight.
Andy, London, UK
IMPEACH OBAMA
Woohoo!! Obama is in, now he just needs to not get in the way of Pelosi bringing the fairness doctrine back. Right now, these next two years, are KEY. We can’t sit back. We need to secure a permanent progressive majority! People like Rush Limbaugh and the rest of their ilk need to be balanced out by progressive voices or they need to be taken OFF the air. Furthermore, we need to take a serious look at outlets like FAUX news and their racist tripe. Those local TV stations which ran the false NRA smear adds should also be investigated, they need to be held accountable so people know that kind of stuff has no place in our elections – from EITHER side.
Now is the time for a quick celebration, and then working to make sure this change is secure forever! Otherwise the neo-cons will be back with their smearing in two short years!
Thank you for the site, Nate, and for grounding me these past few months. As a statistician myself, I've learned a lot from you and thank you for everything. Hope to see a LOT more in the future!
thank you Nate. This has been an amazing site. I couldn't believe your numbers, but you were brave enough to put it out there.
It has begun, the call to participate in making the future. That was an amazing speech, calling us all together and forward. I loved the emphasis on history. Not just 106 years back but 106 years forward. That's the perspective we need.
Can you believe it? Montana, Missouri, Indiana, and North Carolina! Wonder if those loser red states wish they'd checked out all the lies before they bought them wholesale.
For the first time in a long time I feel proud to be an American and my overseas friends are actually a teensy bit jealous!
Only recently started posting ... but the posts and community's commentary, even the snarky stuff, has provided support through the dark days; not over, but light at the end of the tunnel. (e.g., rules Bush is busy pushing through to handicap the future (NY Times yesterday).
Wow is right.
Looks like MO to McCain, though. Indiana to a recount, NC trending back to Obama, but not there yet. Another recount there?
MT is looking weird. Must be due to which precincts are reporting. Obama's showing not just a plurality but a majority and up by 7-9%.
wv: ingst - the opposite of angst. The emotion inspired by Obama's speech.
a crowd paraded around penn st. university too, i was proud to be a part of it.
No lie... this is the greatest moment in my 29 and a half years on this planet.
Congrats Barack and Michelle Obama!!!!!
maybe they'll paint the white house a different color come january
Nate. Great job. We are with you bro. Thanks for all the work you do. Hope all is well. Keep it up even though you are in the newsroom :)
Nate!
You got it all right!
BOOYA!
Now Prop 8! Go gay marriage!
Way to go Nate with the nearly dead-on predictions. You're amazing, man.
WV: natedne = Nate Did Nail Election
Nate, don't miss it, you are the subject of the Alt Text on the newest XKCD:
http://xkcd.com/500/
Now go measure those drapes Barack!
Thank you guys for all of your work.
Spot on, man. Spot on.
It's been a great ride with you, Nate. Thanks for the hard work, and I'll be watching your site for years to come.
Yes, Thank you Nate and Sean. Coming to this website everyday was what kept me stable for the past few weeks. WE DID IT!!!
Nate...from an ex-patriot living in France, you KICK ass. Thanks for being spot on!
Nate -
So many thanks for keeping the smelling salts handy for us throughout this campaign. Your site kept me sane. And? You are total genius. :-)
I'm still trying to wrap my mind around the fact that my president will be Barack Obama. A friend of mine supplied the most appropriate word right now: INEFFABLE!
Thanks to Nate & Sean!! And thanks to all posters who dared to dream that Nate's projections would be realized.
This is a singular moment!!
Dang it, I called NC and IN about half an hour ago. What is taking people so long? Looking at the counties that are left, can anyone show how McCain could make up 15,000 votes in either of these?
NC will win narrowly, as will IN, but I just want NC to do better. MO I think may have slipped the other way.
Oh, and Franken will win by 15-19000 votes at the end of the day.
Nate you rock!!!Every MSM bobble head and network should bow down to you.Kudos to the greatest mathematician ever.Ever need free Cavs tickets holla.-Blair Snow
Amazing speech. Barack is the real deal.
Young people are parading through the streets of the birthplace of our consitution weeping and crying out in joy. A historic night.
Man, I wish I was a little less drunk at this historic moment...
Just checked your forecasts, and you guys deserve credit and a lot of applause...you were right on. Thanks for your site, and the ability to frantically check it, often!
See ya next election.
Nate & Sean, you delivered! Thanks for the hard work. You guys crushed it.
I'm at the American University in Dubai, UAE and students from every nationality are cheering with their morning coffee. I've got chills all over and tears in my eyes.
I woke up early this morning and came straight to 538. After a couple of agonizing hours I heard the news here first. Love you guys.
And we enjoy the euphoria, as we should. But tomorrow we pause, and think of all the thinks he has remained silent on, like social inequality and the dangers of militarism, and all the things you hope he said just because he had to, like speaking to AIPAC about an indivisibile Jerusalem, and unilaterally bombing Pakistan, and how Afghanistan is a "good" and "winnable" war - and we need lower taxes - and the environment isn't such a big deal, and how we should ban gay marriage.. and we figure out a way to say we made you, now listen. You must cut the military budget, you must create a Truth Commission, and the war criminals and sundry corruptos of the past 8 or more years must be brought to justice, first, and then we can talk about reconciliation. He presents an uplifting story and hints of greatness, but those hints must continue to come from below.
Congrats Nate and the staff at 538! Regardless of how I or others may feel about the outcome, you successfully nailed it with your projections! Pretty amazing stuff.
Nate,
I am in the Houston Chronicle newsroom - I'm an editor here - and let me tell you - there's no other place I'd rather be. All the brothers in the newsroom hugged each other. It's a historic day.
WJ
Nate and Sean, thank you for keeping me sane. Thank you for providing a voice of reason. Thanks for being on the side of the angels. If you're ever in the Riverdale part of the Bronx, call.
I just noticed something I thought was important to note here:
EVERY major city in Texas - Houston, San Antonio, Dallas, and Austin - went for Obama, but McCain still won the state by roughly 11 points. Texas has more megacities than any other state.
I'm fairly sure that's unprecedented down here, and it's interesting regardless.
Great night, folks!
What I forgot to add was that the drinks are on me. YAY.
Nate -
Just a word to say thanks from the bottom of my heart for inspiring both confidence and caution during this emotionally charged season.
Dare I say... your intelligence, compassion, and fairness represent a microcosm of our new leader.
As a blogger, your dedication to your field and to your audience are unsurpassed. You've helped millions of us to believe in a miracle we're still grappling to accept.
Thank you, thank you, thank you. I wish you a well-deserved rest.
A.
Unbelievable job, Nate. Your future's so bright, I hope you have shades. A question for everyone. Like most of you, I am deeply moved by our Pres-elect and his call to unite this country. But I'm not sure how to let go of all of the bitterness I've felt over the last 8 years. Any suggestions on how to move forward? Thanks. Big love to everyone. My country, my people. Amen!
We watched the results on a jumbotron with the crowd in Harlem and it was AWESOME!! Tears of joy and dancing and high fives all around!!
So freakin' surreal!!
I can feel proud to be an American again!
Thank you, Nate, for helping to preserve my sanity and life throughout this ordeal.
Nate!! You are awesome!! These results are incredible. Thank you for all your hard work!!
I hope you were wrong about montana, but you've been right about almost everything else!
great job Nate, Sean, and Brett, also great job Obama!
Thanks guys for a great coverage during this campaign. I look forward to seeing the next incarnation of 538
Obviously the victory tonight made it all the sweeter.
See you on down the road.
e.
Just got back from the White House, Nate. When I left, more people were streaming in.
Barack Obama winning a landslide electoral victory is GREAT NEWS!!!... for BARACK OBAMA!!!
Lift up your faces, you have a piercing need
For this bright morning dawning for you.
History, despite its wrenching pain
Cannot be unlived, but if faced
With courage, need not be lived again.
Lift up your eyes upon
This day breaking for you.
Give birth again
To the dream.
--excerpt from Maya Angelou's Inaugural Poem
Nate,
I first heard about you when you were on The Colbert Report. I've been a daily reader since then. It impresses me that you have been so forthright and candid about your methods and allegiances. You, Sean and Brett have shown an unexpected and refreshing professionalism.
Nate and Sean,
You made a home for all of us. Thank you.
Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.
The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.
No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.
It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.
Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.
My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.
I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .
While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.
Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.
Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.
With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.
He must maintain his popularity.
So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.
I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.
It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.
Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.
I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.
I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.
A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.
You wind up idealizing such politicians.
It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.
I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!
She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).
This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.
Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.
Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.
Thank you and good night to one and all!
just got back from mobbing the white house...in a good way...and now it looks like my absentee ballot in NC will actually matter! people running up and down the streets in downtown DC, screaming "yes we can," "yes we did," "USA!", "No more Bush!", and many other things....there are no words to describe the feeling right now. God Bless the USA.
Love that Indiana went blue! YES! It is about time!
I was inspired to write this, including a link back to 538. Cheers Nate and thanks for all your hard work this election season.
wv: cherati - a term of endearment for Obama's wife, maybe?
Thank you, Nate, for the balance and sanity through all of this.
Ericka
Thanks to Nate, Sean and Brett for a great site and a great ride.
I'll look out for what you do next..and also what Obama does next.
How eloquent so many of you have been. Though I have merely lurked, I must echo their sentiments as well, and thank you both. I saw you first, Nate, on the Colbert Report and began to check in with you. When I heard other pundits talking about the race tightening, and quoting other poll numbers, I took solace in reading your sobering and excellent evaluations. Congratulations on a super job and thank you for being here.
I was in that very pleasant mob in front of the White House. It was one of the most inspiring things I've ever seen or been a part of. Chants of "USA" and repeated renditions of the National Anthem were the best parts... but there was also some (fairly mild) jeering of President Bush, nothing really inappropriate.
Great job for predicting right. Well done Nate. Cheers.
Thank you, thank you, thank you, Nate.
I followed two blogs on a daily basis during this campaign: Time's Swampland (http://swampland.blogs.time.com) and this one. Thanks to all Nate, Sean and all my brother and sister commenters for all the information and insights. Now excuse me while I take my turn at the oars to help turn this ship around.
Zahlman, I followed the link to your blog. All I can say is:
Wow. Everything you just said, to the Nth power.
I cried my eyes out last night, and you just made me tear up again.
I know Obama lost here in South Carolina, but you would be amazed at how many of us white, middle-class Southerners voted for him.
Now, if only someone with some time could pull together all of the signing statements and crapola rules being issued by our current idiot-in-residence in the WH, so that the Obama administration and make quick work of undoing them.
Nate, Sean, everyone: Between you guys, Andrew Sullivan, and Mudflats, you kept me sane. Thank you all!!
Sheesh! I can write AND spell on alternate Wednesdays. Apparently, this isn't one of them.
I meant to write, "so that the Obama administration CAN make quick work of undoing them."
My brain is so tired....
Thanks for covering this election so well in such a smart way!
Literal dancing in the streets of San Francisco. In many different parts of the City, blocks closed down by spontaneous celebrations! Just like after WWII ended (not that I was there!), women, who were complete strangers to me, came up and hugged and kissed me! Sweet Victory! Sweet, indeed!
BTW, kudos to you, Nate and your crew! At the moment, you have almost the exact number of electoral votes for Obama pegged!
Also, one other important observation from last night's celebrations in San Francisco. Unlike they way extreme right-wing flacks always try to portray those of us on the left as being Anti-American, there were many people waving American flags and chants of "USA! USA!" were continually erupting. Not exactly an Anti-American image, now, is it?!?
Kudos and a great big thank you to fivethirtyeight.com. I'm so used to this being my first stop every day that I don't think I'm going to be able to stop.
On my Word Face-Off blog, I did a comparison of Obama's victory speech and McCain's concession. I look into the lentgh of words, sentences, etc. I also include all-inclusive word clouds. Also, there's a collection of photos of celebrations from around the world on the Reasons To Be Cheerful, Part 3 blog.
http://obamaschildren.blogspot.com/
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