Mark Udall wins easily in Colorado. Mark Begich will defeat the convicted tubes guy. Landrieu has escaped in Louisiana. That's 57 seats.
Minnesota, Oregon, Mississippi and Georgia have not been called. Democrats will need to win three of those to get to 60 votes, and all four to get to a Lieberman-proof, filibuster-proof majority.
Now, let's not kid ourselves. When the Obama speech happens, it's gonna be all Nate for a bit. I'm joining Brett outside.
11.04.2008
What's Left - Senate Version
@ 11:38 PM
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154 comments
what's left is proposition 8!!
Congrats Nate! Your projection was right on the money.
Can't wait to see the pictures. Enjoy the moment for the rest of us who aren't there.
Regarding the MN senate race:
Dean Barkley (IP) has gotten 15% so far to Franken and Coleman's 42%. Looks like his support hadn't "collapsed" on election day quite as much as predicted.
This race might not get called til morning.
blogger sucks!!!
Mecklenburg Co. in NC just finished reporting, the big O is up in the state by 30 k!
Can it hold!!!
Come on North Carolina!!!!!!!!
As Ben said, a shockingly accurate prediction.
Could be good news for Dems in GA.
WSB TV REPORTS
ATLANTA -- Fulton and Gwinnett Counties failed to include any advance votes in their election totals by 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
Officials at the Secretary of States office confirmed to WSB-TV Channel 2 that the votes were not being included in early returns.
Up to two million votes may be going uncounted.
"Something's really wrong out there," said WSB-TV political analyst Matt Towery.
The unreported votes could have a major effect on the race for the U.S. Senate between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. The early results show Martin trailing Chambliss by 14 percentage points.
Martin supporters said they believe a large percentage of the unreported votes will be for their candidate.
awesome job guys! congratulations. i was hoping though you'd mess up in arizona, but i'll settle for this. best...
The senate race got interesting again here in GA. Local TV station Cannel 2 did some calculating and discovered that there were about a million, million and a half votes missing from the totals in GA. Apparently these were early votes that had not been included and so are not yet counted. Most of them seem to be from counties that are expected to favor Martin.
Gore Vidal just made a complete arse of himself on the BBC. Apparently he attacked David Dimbleby for something. He went all Zell Miller, I'm not quite sure what the ruckus was all about.
If we're only going to have 59, might as well make it 58 and get rid of Lieberman.
Dems took the NY State Senate.
Whoa, Georgia?
The numbers out there aren't including the early vote? Seriously? Got a link?
In MN, Franken holds a slight lead over Coleman. Could still go either way.
Most bizarre outcome is in MN-6, with over half the vote in, Bachmann leads 47 to 42. 10% of voters are going for the IP candidate, though their party endorsed Tinklenberg. What the hell these people are thinking is entirely unclear.
Barack Obama being elected president is GREAT NEWS!!!!! For JOHN MCCAIN!!!!!!!
Let me just say, I've never been prouder to be a Hyde Parker, a Chicagoan, or an American.
Thanks for giving him a chance, America, he won't let you down.
Georgia's elections are corrupt. No way Saxby Chambliss gets over 50%.
I'm 28, and Obama is my Kennedy. I am grateful to him and to my country for recognizing the chance we have in our new leader. I have newly found respect for my country and more pride in it than I did yesterday. What a wonderful, wonderful world.
I am thankful for your extraordinary expertise as this entire campaign progressed. Your level headed portrial of the electoral college paralleled the level headed campaign of our president-elect.
Obama better say "Not bad for a community organizer."
But he won't, he's classier than that.
Like Adam, I'd love some news on Prop 8 (and other propositions around the country...)
I'm trying the Secretary of State's site for the CA propositions, but apparently they didn't plan on the increased traffic. :(
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
for info on the uncounted GA votes
Let's actually hope not - in the early years of the Bush debacle the only defense against him was the filibuster.
Now the only defense against democratic revenge will be the same thing.
What - do you honestly think that the democrats around Obama are any different than before? If so, you obviously didn't hear Gov. Richardson's VERY self serving speech on NBC just now as he jockeys for Secretary of State.
Now... lets hope for 375+ electoral votes to make the Bush repudiation complete...
Shoulda had Biden introduce him.
All I can say is WOW - YES WE DID.
Thanks so much Nate, Sean, Brett.
I wouldn't have made without you.
WV - alsversp - all is very special (like right now -we made history)
Yes we did!!!!!
Porridgegun:
Gore Vidal was hilarious wasn't he?! What was that about? I was laughing so much that friends who had gone off for naps came to see what the fuss was about. It was hard to convey...
Great delivery.
Prop 8 is an issue.
54% Yes
46% No
Only 11% reporting though.
Nate and Sean
WOW! And THANK YOU!
Your analysis and reporting made me feel VASTLY more in touch with the campaign and events than I ever have before, since my first vote in 1968.
You should both get White House jobs for your sterling work!
Regards,
William Donelson
Memphis TN
Thank you, America!
Thank you Nate, Sean and Brett for giving us the mathmetical confidence to see us through the tough times.
Oh, I forgot to ask...
What in the hell was Joe's secret?
Not Joe Biden, or Joe the plumber, or Joe sixpack, but the realest of real joes, Real Joe.
What the hell man!?!?!
Did he have to remind us of his fundraising? How he cheated by not having address verification. Obama is all about expediency.
His speeches are really too long and boring . . . .
Something is wrong with the vote counts in Georgia.
Where is everybody? Blowing their nose? Wiping away their tears of joy?
Sheesh!
Where's petekent? Must be fondling his dogs balls.
I mean isint this his warmed over stump speech?
New material, please!
I'm afraid so petekent. That is EXACTLY what I am doing.
wv: realli. No realli, I am.
Jesus H. Christ Pete Kent did you just call someone else's speeches long and boring. You empty rambling speechifyer, whose writing actually has no content.
Your posts are boring just to look at, let alone read.
Where's jack black with his Rasmussen "On this day..." BS? Coward.
He is getting angry eyed on us again . . .
Has Real Joe's balls exploded? Where is she? She's supposed to tell us her surprise.
Am I the only one getting all misty-eyed by Obama's speech?
But can we end this speech?
No we can't?
Nate,
Thank you so much for this website and all of your efforts. I've been checking it multiple times per day for the last few months and it really energized me in this election cycle.
I can't thank you enough for helping the United States of America! You are a true American as the people said so this evening with their votes!
Joey, thanks for the info on Prop 8 -- is there a link? I haven't been able to get any idea of the %reporting. (I did find a current status on the LA Times site, but no "with N% reporting.")
Yes we can -- what more is there than electing Obama?
That is not an end in itself.
It's time to govern.
I don't think hye has a clue.
My bizzaro world post was better than this.
Fizzle . . . .
That was the best speech he's ever given, unbelievably.
Deflating in its way . . .
PeteKent - Time to toddle off to bed with your blanky and teddy bear. There's a good boy.
@petekent scoreboard
Another cotton candy address. Sorta pretty but melts a way. His speech writers suck.
Oprah and Jesse Jackson looked esp bad.
What a beautiful moment. I am so proud to have been part of this.
I sat here and cried when he was announced as the President-elect. We have witnessed history tonight. Even better, we have made history.
Yes we can.
@Sue: "True American"? What?
Pete Kent ,say something nice about Obama. Just for once, yes you can.
@PeteKent: When Obama gets into office, we'll know for sure. Until then, the ball is round, the game lasts four years, and anything else is speculation.
Is Obama winning Omaha?!
I have to agree with petekent on the speech issue, and I voted for Obama. I stopped paying attention half way through. We've heard it all before. McCain's was vastly more intriguing just because of the situation he found himself in and the dynamic, and the fact that he seemed to actually be "speaking" instead of his weak "speeching" for the first time in months.
We made hsotry every time we elected a President. Tonight we elected our first Black President That is historical, but I think a footnote to the important work ahead.
Biden's family is full of hotties.
I am so happy about my president. I have never felt this way before.
Maybe Pete Kent should write Obama's speeches. That would be C. I Can Believe In.
Hey all, did I miss much?
A couple exciting North Dakota Class B district tournament volleyball games went a depressingly long 5 games each :(
And what of Aunt Zetuni?
I bet Obama asks Bush to deport her before he has to do the deed.
Perhaps she can attend the innauguration like she did his Senate swearing in. Be cool if they put her in irons!
Might make a good skit on SNL.
By the way, in relation to the Georgia votes:
The AP has still not called Georgia for McCain.
The AP also did not call Florida for Bush in 2000
Not sayin'. Just sayin'
Biden's family is jailbait for porridgegun.
Liddy Dole lost...
I'm committing suicide.
wankstain: you missed nothing. McCain got elected, everything's tickety-boo.
I am freaking on Prop 8 right now. 13% reporting 55% yes. Shit! It is totally harshing my buzz.
PeteKent, I know you are upset, but this is a moment that many of us will remember for the rest of our lives. Please do not try to diminish it.
Undem. Definitely not this nation and definitely not tonight.
so say we all...
PeterKent
Just do it. There is a reason why you were always picked last for the playground games.
anyone see what's happening in Virginia 5? Wow. Incumbent Goode (R) was a 20+ point leader three months ago. Periello looks like he's going to win by a nose.
I'm so crushed that Liddy Dole lost...
Woohoo!! Obama is in, now he just needs to not get in the way of Pelosi bringing the fairness doctrine back. Right now, these next two years, are KEY. We can’t sit back. We need to secure a permanent progressive majority! People like Rush Limbaugh and the rest of their ilk need to be balanced out by progressive voices or they need to be taken OFF the air. Furthermore, we need to take a serious look at outlets like FAUX news and their racist tripe. Those local TV stations which ran the false NRA smear adds should also be investigated, they need to be held accountable so people know that kind of stuff has no place in our elections – from EITHER side.
Now is the time for a quick celebration, and then working to make sure this change is secure forever! Otherwise the neo-cons will be back with their smearing in two short years!
ITT: KentPuppet #737 realizes that its life is meaningless now that the election is over.
hey fake pete kent, that imitating joke is old.
Michele said...
Joey, thanks for the info on Prop 8 -- is there a link? I haven't been able to get any idea of the %reporting. (I did find a current status on the LA Times site, but no "with N% reporting.")
I actually have it on my Your Race on CNN.com so I can't give a link.
It's up to 15% now with the same numbers.
Hey fake Pete, don't make promises you can't keep.
Real Joe? Anything???
Fantastic speech by Obama. I am so emotionally drained and ecstatic. May tomorrow truly be the dawn of a new day. SO Excited!!! Thanks for being around with your comments and insights and craziness.
Thanks Nate, Sean and Brett for everything...=)
Back to 538's predictions
Nate's got Montana, Indiana, and Missouri going to McCain and he's got North Carolina to Obama
Right now, MO's in Mac's favor, the other 3 are looking like the all might go to Obama.
Nate's model's flawed...
But seriously, After finding your website in late summer guys the three of you have kept me entertained, informed, and with a full head of hair.
Many thanks from this Ohio voter
Does anybody know who won Nebraska's second congressional district vote?
BTW - we North Carolinians are PROUD of our decision to get rid of Liddy Dole. She ran a campaign that was shockingly negative and unworthy of a Senator. We appreciate civility, ,and she apparently forgot that.
Obama has a slim lead here - about 11532 votes. Come on NC, join the party!
I nominate Pete Kent for a Darwin Award.
wv: dipsod - PK's other name
To anyone on here that volunteered in MO or GA:
Just wanted to say THANK YOU especially. Even though your state didn't go blue (although I guess either might still squeak through!) it was the awesomeness of your campaign which helped get the McCain campaign in a kerfuffle, and for that you are truly fantastic.
Hopefully nothing can dim your excitement on a night like this, but I wanted to make a point of saying.
PeteKent and his sockpuppet are here.
Assmole the brave, are you more or less assmoley than assmole and assmole ii?
Bloglect- Nate, Sean and Brett?
PeteKent said...
Liddy Dole lost...
I'm committing suicide.
Bring up his goddam aunt again and all the other bullshit you desperatly use to try and blacken his name and you wont have to
You lost. There was no fundamental shift. Clinging to what he might or might not do is bull. YOur pathetic talking points didn;t work 3, 2, 1 months ago and they wont work tonight. Lose graciously like McCain did or sont speak at all
Yes, He Now Can.
That all that matters.
When I have to check which PeteKent is real - then you know he's gone mad.
Real Joe celebrates with Bosniaks at Biden rally in Virginia.
(AP)
@Bruce: "Obama is in, now he just needs to not get in the way of Pelosi bringing the fairness doctrine back."
But Obama opposes the fairness doctrine. It's one of his policy positions. And honestly, I think it's better to have Rush Limbaugh running around radio than to have accusations of First Amendment violations, esp. with the Constitution as battered as it is.
with prop 8...
check out vote 2 in fl..basically the same thing, just less publicized. it's winning 60-some percent with most precints reporting last time i checked.
it really bums me out but hopefully with a progressive government a federal civil union law will come into place.
Did Real Joe ever reveal his secret?
http://xkcd.com/500/
Don't forget the alt-text - Nate gets a shout!
concerning prop 8....
San Francisco is reporting at 0% right now, don't worry yet
jen, i am always 100% assmole. unfortunately.
The MS Senate race has been called for Wicker (R), by 56-44 -- I don't know why anyone thought this one was ever even close. So no, no filibuster-proof majority for the Dems.
The best thing we can do about voices we don't like----is to let them go on speaking.
I think it's time to call IN and NC for Obama. Couldn't be happier about those--Indiana is a bigger surprise and I'm so happy about that.
prop 8 updates:
http://www.sfgate.com/election/races/2008/11/04/CA/c/i_proposition/i_1_8_same_sex_marriage_ban/g_ballot_issue/c/california.shtml?tsp=1
the chronicle is good for some things!
including yours, nam vet?
Watching Jesse J. in tears at the Obama party brought me to tears...and I'm not even a big fan of his.
Now is the time. Now is the time to pull together as a country to make this country, this economy, our infrastructure work. Now is the time to celebrate, to hold precious and celebrate the work of every person who lives in this great country.
Peace, everyone.
I'm happy to see all these Brits still up (it's just gone 5.30am here).
I have to leave in an hour to get the bus to observe gynaecological surgery...
However tired I am tomorrow, it was in every single way worth staying up for.
c'mon no new thread in hours. Where's Bedford and Exeter gone?
There's incompetence---and then there's whatever they're doing in Georgia right now.
Those 2M votes could easily contain ~0.5% of BHO's popular vote margin and be PLENTY to send Martin to the Senate.
Also, PeteKent, let me just repeat myself very quickly: SCOREBOARD, MOTHERFUCKER.
I think it's time to call IN and NC for Obama. Couldn't be happier about those--Indiana is a bigger surprise and I'm so happy about that.
I personally called IN for Obama 5 hours ago :) As a Purdue alum, I am proud.
follow prop 8
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/county/#CAI01map
Indiana is a surprise, but Montana might go Obama, that would be amazing.
Missouri is so close than than a 10,000 vote gap right now with 92% of the precincts in.
Hey Pete,
When do you guys start your revolution led by Palin? You were going to hop in your boats and take down Massachusetts, right?
Seriously, even the detractors on this site are great. It's always in good fun. I wish Pete, MR, and HE the best. You'll see that Obama will unite us all.
@sedi
I just looked at CNN and it appears that St. Louis has reported although there's a county around KC that hasn't
It's a new dawn.
It's a new day.
And I'm feeling good.
Here is the best way to follow the MO race
http://www.sos.mo.gov/enrweb/allresults.asp?eid=256
Bob Shaffer just been on local TV here in Colorado blaming his defeat on the other side "spending more" - sounding incredibly bitter and apparently ignoring that his face hasn't been off TV for the last fortnight.
Advance Votes Not Tallied In Fulton, Gwinnett Counties
Tuesday, November 4, 2008 – updated: 11:29 pm EST November 4, 2008
ATLANTA -- Fulton and Gwinnett Counties failed to include any advance votes in their election totals by 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
Officials at the Secretary of States office confirmed to WSB-TV Channel 2 that the votes were not being included in early returns.
Up to two million votes may be going uncounted.
"Something's really wrong out there," said WSB-TV political analyst Matt Towery.
The unreported votes could have a major effect on the race for the U.S. Senate between Saxby Chambliss and Jim Martin. The early results show Martin trailing Chambliss by 14 percentage points.
Martin supporters said they believe a large percentage of the unreported votes will be for their candidate.
So what was Real Joe's thing there? Kind of distracted with all the, you know, historic elecion and all.
"concerning prop 8....
San Francisco is reporting at 0% right now, don't worry yet"
Yes is at 53% in Los Angeles County and 58% in Orange County (?). That makes no sense.
44,000 ballots counted so far in San Fran, but LA should be about 55% no.
Anyone hear results for California Prop 2.
Can chickens spread their wings? For those who say it will raise food prices, I only buy eggs from chickens that are vegetarian and free range and they are from a local supplier and a dozen costs $2.79. It will not significantly raise food prices. Sorry for the soap box, but this one is important for me too.
"I'm happy to see all these Brits still up (it's just gone 5.30am here)."
Wouldn't miss it for the world! Slept through the early evening and then got up to catch the action through the small hours. Many, many thanks to Nate, Sean and Brett for making a site that I have been glued to for weeks.
What a speech by Obama and also a gracious speech by McCain. Strong rhetoric always moves me and I shed quite a few tears listening to those. Do us proud America and live up to your founders' high ideals.
Nate --
I am as conservative as they come, and I supported John McCain -- but I gotta give props to you for being spot on! You are the only pollster any news media should talk to.
Could Obama win 1 in Nebraska's 2nd?
Douglas County he's ahead by 6200 with 60% in, and Sarpy County (only part is in the 2nd, right?), he's only down by 3500.
Hey guys, I have a surprise for you...
I'm a liberal. I just used this name as satire and when I was bored. LOL
I voted for Obama today in PA =D
Prop 8 should lose as LA County has 1/3 of the state's vote and hasn't been counted yet. I don't see San Francisco, either.
It appears Obama has won Indiana and North Carolina. he's got a big lead in Montana and also may knock off the 1 EV from nebraska.
I hope we can get those votes counted in Georgia. I really want CHambliss to lose.
I think Real Joe is busy speaking to his boss, President-Elect Barack Hussein Obama. Real Joe is Joe Biden.
Georgia may be turning blue and changing senators after all.
Advanced votes from the 2 most populated counties in the state weren't counted yet. Up to 2Million votes may have not been counted, including Atlanta's Fulton county
http://www.wsbtv.com/news/17894973/detail.html
I thought that the part after the speech where Obama, Biden, and their respective families bowed was REALLY end-of-the-first-star-wars-y
THERE WAS NO REAL JOE "SURPRISE."
He just said that when he mocking concern trolls like porridgegun and vanessa.
Everyone remember to vote on Nov. 5
Amazing!
Nate and Sean - you are the man! Only question left, which way goes Montana?
Time for my favorite part of every Presidential election:
Lapping up the tears of the delusional losers who just had a smack of reality. It was fun on the leftist blogs in 2004, and it'll be fun tonight.
Return of the Jedi.
ATLANTA -- Fulton and Gwinnett Counties failed to include any advance votes in their election totals by 11 p.m. Tuesday night.
Wow. I was so disappointed in GA but if this is true things may change.
Proud to say that New Mexico's entire Congressional delegation has gone to the Democrats this cycle.
Udall (Senate), Heinrich, Lujan, and Teague all won their races.
Bingaman is our other Dem senator who is not up for re-election this year.
And the election of Obama/Biden in our state was no where near the close call of the 2000 or 2004 elections!
Dancin’ in the Streets
I think this spontaneous demonstration in front of the White House is awesome.
Bush should come out and speak to them. You know McCain would have.
I know how excited many of you are and I cannot help but feel your joy. I have known it myself and will know it again.
I really do hope Obama is a good President, a successful one.
I would applaud nothing more than if he could make me change my mind about him.
Man...I knew there was a reason that I secretly enjoyed reading Pete's posts and got a laugh out of them. Oh well, I was actually thinking there was one person in Oklahoma with a sense of humor and ability to debate a little.
Petekent!
Oh my goodness! Had me totally fooled, that's for sure.
patrick:
Thanks for that - do you know if the counties yet to report are likely to be blue or red?
I am thrilled that Obama won, but this GA vote suppression is just appalling. The votes of my friends and family had better be counted, and this had better not be another way for Karen Handel to suppress votes.
The old farts inexplicably broke for McCrypt Keeper. Do these morons realise that if this Republican ticket had it's way, their social security would be fucked.
Bill Schneider: This was a victory for young voters
BTW, looking at how close some states were/are, I'm convinced Greg Palast was on the money - 6 million votes have been scrubbed.
@Jen, it's looking good for california prop2. vegan.com has some info
I just looked at the indiana results by county and it looks like a lock for Obama based on what's left.
What's the score on Murtha?
They're not gonna put that crazy bitch Bachmann back in, are they?
Aaaand Kent737 turns out to be exactly what we thought, and TypekeyKent says he hopes to be proven wrong.
I think we all hope that, because it'd suck if we just got snookered into something.
WV: Rovegore (no joke). 2000 elections this was not.
Karen Handel in Georgia is a criminal. Plain and simple.
Murtha won.
I believe it was CNN that had it.
There were about 3.2M votes in GA in 2004. There are about 3.2M votes in GA accounted for right now. I guess participation has increased, ¿but 80% more? That is what 2M more votes would mean...
I say this in sorrow, I would love a bigger Obama lead / Bush rejection. ¡Vamos Obama! The world, your old Indonesian neighbours, your Kenyan extended family, is looking at you. A more perfect union should include EVERYONE.
Wow...NC is so freaking close. Like a 12,000 vote difference with 99% reporting.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25362802
Thanks for all you've done, guys.
Ironically, Georgia turned indeed out to be the big surprise of the election, just not as expected. That it would be called so soon for McCain was bewildering for a second and astonishing after the early voters reports. Ah, what the heck, who cares now?
Looks like Indiana will be Nate's only mishit (but waiting for Montana). Congrats, Mister Silver, you're in the big league know. Everyone who's not turning to you for election projection in future is just silly.
'nough said.
Oregon's senate race looks close, but most of the outstanding votes come from heavily Democratic areas, so I put Merkley over Smith. Same dynamic occurred in 2002 Governor's race, where Kulongoski looked periously close to losing, but staff were serene because they saw where the votes still hadn't been counted.
I guess a community organizer is a lot like a small town mayor..except we know how to win elections!!!!
PeterKent, do us all a favor and please get run over by a bus.
Popular vote 52-47 with lots of CA to go.
Looks like Nate's popular vote prediction will be close as well as the electoral count.
Nate and Sean,
You made a home for all of us. Thank you.
Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.
The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.
No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.
It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.
Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.
My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.
I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .
While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.
Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.
Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.
With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.
He must maintain his popularity.
So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.
I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.
It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.
Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.
I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.
I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.
A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.
You wind up idealizing such politicians.
It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.
I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!
She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).
This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.
Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.
Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.
Thank you and good night to one and all!
As of just after 11pm, when according to The Oregonian's site Merkley(D), Smith(R),
Brownlow(Constitution) were at
424,285 416,845 49,592
using that page's breakdown of what percent of each county has reported, I perhaps naively assumed the rest of each county would vote in the same proportion as those reported, yielding
935,440 812,731 96,070
50.7% 44.1% 5.2%
(I left in the anomaly that the page reports that Sherman County had already reported 102% of its vote, letting the method lop off those supposed extra 2% of voters. Only 1011 had voted in that county, so I didn't worry.)
So that's my prediction for the ultimate result. Even if the assumptions aren't spot-on, the prediction is so clear as to inspire confidence.
stevena
Sorry, Sean, but I think you've underestimated the gullibility of the Alaskan public. Begich/Stevens is neck-and-neck with 99% of precincts reporting. Our local NBC affiliate seems to have the most up-to-date numbers.
http://www.ktuu.com/
Beyond simple name recognition and fear of the unknown, I'd say that the pollsters' samples may have under-weighted Alaska's rural population, which are pretty heavily Republican (or at least their voting patterns suggest that the sleazeball you know is better than the potential sleazeball you don't know.) Most of those villages aren't on the road system, and not everybody has a phone out there (some villages are still trying to get running water), so they'd be easy to under-sample.
I think the Alaska Senate race will go badly for Mark Begich. He is 3600 votes behind. Yes,I know there are 1000's of uncounted votes from absentee and early voters but I think they include a lot of overseas military who vote red more then blue.
I think the polsters; national and local( Dittman, Republican, and Ivan Moore, Democrat) overlooked the Queen Palin of North Factor. She brought more Wasilla Hillbillys to the voting booth then ever before.
I still can not belive we will send a convicted felon to the Senate, But I fear thats the case.
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