It's now almost two weeks after Election Day, and so far only one of the six principal decision desks (NBC's) has called Missouri for John McCain. I'm not quite sure why the others have been so slow to follow. The situation for several days has been as follows:
Unofficial results in Missouri show McCain winning by about 4,900 votes. There are about 6,300 provisional ballots statewide that county officials are still reviewing. Counties must send final results to the state by Nov. 18.So, yes, there are believed to be more provisional ballots outstanding than the margin between John McCain and Barack Obama. Obama could do quite well among these provisional ballots ... provisional ballots almost always tend to favor Democrats, and a large fraction of Missouri's provisionals are reportedly in St. Louis, Obama's strongest part of the state.
Even if Obama were to win 80 percent of the provisionals, however -- which seems exceptionally optimistic -- he still would net only 3,780 votes, leaving him about 1,000 shy of McCain. Moreover, some provisional ballots are in fact illegitimate, cast by voters who are not properly registered, etc. The rules of thumb I have seen are that somewhere between one-half and two-thirds of provisional ballots usually hold up upon review. A more realistic scenario then is that two-thirds of the provisionals are counted and two-thirds of those go to Obama, in which case Obama would net about 1,400 votes, not nearly enough to close his gap with McCain.
In other words, in order for Obama to win Missouri, he'll need some source of votes apart from the provisional ballots. Mistakes are sometimes made in the vote-counting process, and Missouri doesn't finalize its count until Tuesday, so this is always possible. There's just no reason to think it's especially likely ... maybe John McCain is a 99% favorite to win Missouri but not a 99.9% favorite, and the networks usually want more like 99.9% certainty before they call a state.
Now, Obama does have the right to request a recount in Missouri, provided that the margin is less than 1 point, which it obviously will be. But Claire McCaskill has said that he sees no point in doing so, and besides that, a margin of a few thousand votes is exponentially more difficult to make up in a recount (i.e. it's nearly impossible) than a margin of a few hundred votes, like we have in Minnesota.
Missouri may be having trouble coping with the fact that it's no longer the king of bellwether states, but in all likelihood it's just going to have to deal with ceding its title to Ohio or whatever.
105 comments
Don't worry: the whole midwest will be a bombed out economic ruin soon enough, and they can all cry in their beer together.
I can't wait for Missouri to make an official declaration of which candidate has won its delegates.
Having this one loose end remaining from the presidential election of 2008 has been irritating!
I'm just thankful the election was a blowout and we're not waiting for Missouri to decide the winner.
Now if Alaska could just get with things and finish counting their outstanding ballots for Senate in a timely manner...
Sure would have been beautiful in Blue.
Nate, I would love to see a graph for each polling firm showing their deviation from the polling trendline over the six months leading up to election day. This way we could see if Fox/Ras maintained a larger house effect until just before the election. In future elections this tendency of some polling firms to perhaps tweak their models in favor of accuracy at the end from a model favoring politics earlier on could be accounted for. Firms that not only nailed it at the end, but were in line with trendlines all along could be given larger weight than those that just nailed it at the end.
MO and MT just give us something to work for in '12.
Remind me, what happens if they don't certify their results by dec 15? Does that mean they don't get to "send" an elector to the electoral college meeting to cast their votes? (Send in "quotes" as I understand there is no in-person meeting, it's done via phone calls.)
If so, we'd have a situation where Obama had plenty of votes to win, McCain gets his relatively small number and MO ends up effectively sitting this election out?
Congrats on your book deals Nate!!
There's no way there will be a recount. The Dems requesting one would make Obama look very petty, whether he wins it or not - not exactly in line with the theme of coming together for the common good that he's trying to promote, not to mention that such a needless waste of taxpayer money wouldn't really underline his economic credentials.
TYPO: "The rules of thumb I have seen is that. . . .
Should be rule of thumb, not rules.
Um, isn't the operative personal pronoun with Claire McCaskill "she"?
OK, I've picked my nit for the day.
Electors gather in each states' Capitol to vote on a specific day in December. These votes, under seal, are then sent to Congress for counting and reading at a joint session chaired by the Vice President.
reminds me of New Mexico in the last election, except McCaskill doesn't seem as emotionally tied to the results as Richardson...
What's the best candidate for the new bellweather state?
I say it's Virginia. Not only does its vote results match the results for the entire country (53% to 46%), but the demographics in the state also represent a microcosm of the trends in the oveall U.S. population.
Missouri doesn`t want to admit they voted for the loser. I thought they voted for the winner since 1932 or something like that.
judas_priest, I think the antecedent is Obama, as in: "But Claire McCaskill has said that [Obama] sees no point in doing so."
"Bellwether state" is a stupid meme. Because most elections are not close, most states vote with the winner most of the time. Since Republicans won 5 of the 7 elections between 1980 and 2004, and the other 2 had Ross Perot and a centrist Democrat, even reliably Republican states could do quite well in that period.
Um... Nate I think your math is off? 80% of 6,300 is 5,040 votes.
3,780 is 60% of 6,300.
Mattus said: "There's no way there will be a recount. The Dems requesting one would make Obama look very petty...".
LOL. When has the President-Elect ever allowed the risk of appearing petty deter him in the slightest from extracting every last miligram of political advantage from any and all opportune situations that present themselves?
Isn't Claire McCaskill a woman?
Post your final regression table. It would have been much better had you posted it BEFORE the election, but better late than never!
PS, the origin of bellwether is a pretty good story.
VIGO county, IN is still the bellwether, isn't it?
The chances of making up 100 or 1,000 votes would be proportional to the total populations. MO is about 13% bigger as of 2006:
5,842,713 Missouri
5,167,101 Minnesota
Not sure how many total votes were cast in 2008. In any case, I don't think that's enough to make an argument for a recount.
When has the President-Elect ever allowed the risk of appearing petty deter him in the slightest from extracting every last miligram of political advantage from any and all opportune situations that present themselves?
Perhaps you could enumerate some examples of this behaviour. One of the remarkable things about the Obama campaign was how rarely they descended into the petty backbiting and cheap point-scoring which characterised the entire McPalin campaign.
Thanks for the link Nate.
I guess we'll find out on Tuesday. I doubt we'll be surprised.
I concur with Nate, MO is just having a hard time not being the emperor of Bellweathers and they want to milk that last bit of time they have.
The good people of Missouri knew the results of the Redskins game well in advance. It's their fault if they decided not to take into account one spurious coincedence while trying to defend another.
I think Missouri was always going to end up one time going for a loser, no shame in that. MO has been trending more conservative than usually in the past recently, but it is a state Obama will have his eye on for 2012 I dare say. Thats one of the positive things about the 2008 results, that the map still has some areas that Obama and the Dems can play offense in. Oddly a 400 EV drubbing might have made offense tough in 2012, and the party that plays offense usually wins the election.
This is actually the best possible outcome. Missouri makes no difference in the electoral college, and ensures we won't be subjected to another round of "America's bellwether state" nonsense in 4 years.
I couldn't be happier that Missouri waited this long to get called, and then didn't pick the winner.
Even more interesting is between all the major news sites that none I have seen have added the capability for the EV counter to do the EV in Omaha for Obama. They are all at 364 for Obama, even though he's had the extra EV for quite awhile
Yeah, but if we get a recount in Missouri and Obama wins, then my electoral college prediction will have been exactly correct (including NE-CD2 which almost nobody else had the guts to call). The Dems should do it just to prove that I was right...
(Just in case anybody can't tell, I'm kidding... but I am mad about Missouri....)
We won't know the EV count until January.
Remember a DC elector in 2000 did not vote for Al Gore; maybe there will be a couple Ron Paul votes among the McCain electors.
There remains only one electoral given among the states: no Republican has ever been elected since the creation of the Republican Party in 1854 without carrying Ohio.
Missouri's electoral votes last went to a losing candidate in 1956. Tennessee and Kentucky last voted for the losing candidate in 1960. I think Nevada is the new "bellwether". They've voted for the winner since 1980.
dave c—
I haven't looked at the others yet, but CNN added it today.
Regarding Missouri's bellwether status, let me say:
No mo' MO
I feel like McCain has actually been expanding his lead. He was once at about 4,900, but the latest check at CNN.Com shows McCain up about 4,986. I wonder if that is due to some counties with smaller numbers of provisional ballots getting those checked and included.
Missouri is another Pennsylvania: It's Kansas City in the west, St. Louis in the east, and evangelical Christianity everywhere else (they voted for John Ashcroft for governor and Senator).
wv-nonesse: what I found on my last trip to Scotland.
I failed to mention Boone County (Columbia) as being a reliably Democratic part of Missouri in my last post. Sorry for leaving out that blue streak in the middle of the Show Me State.
WV: Distspar. A hybrid bringing together the way you feel when you get dumped or lose an election.
If Missouri wanted to maintain its "bellwether" status, I guess more of them should have voted for Obama... :-)
@stevieboy:
VA voted for Ford in 1976, for Bush in 1992 and Dole in 1996. Doesn't sound like much of a bellwether to me.
There's no such thing as a bellwether. It all depends on the candidates, the state of the nation, and the residents of the specific state.
Out of 50 states, of course ONE is bound to be accurate a LOT. Good thing Obama won't win Missouri, it just shows that looking to bellwethers is dumb. In fact, if there was any state of the toss ups I would want to NOT win the most, it would be Missouri.
Good!I want Missouri to get off it's high horse and realize that wearing a bell is a stupid idea anyway. I want to crush their ego!
Um... Nate I think your math is off? 80% of 6,300 is 5,040 votes.
3,780 is 60% of 6,300.
3,780 is the number of net votes if Obama wins 80%; i.e., 80% of 6300 minus 20% of 6300 (20% would go to McCain).
MO losing its beelwether status is GREAT NEWS FOR JOHN MCCAIN!
I love MO losing its bellwether staus. St. Louis is dying, and without the state is becoming less representative of the nation.
Dude, way to go on the book deal(s)! If you need an extra editor - I'm a published writer with a U of C B.A. - get in touch!
MO has only been a bellwether for a few cycles because it is roughly what the country has voted for the last 20 or so years- moderately conservative. Now the nation has decided to vote moderately liberal over the last election cycle, MO has fallen out of step.
Now MO are you going to wait for the country to get back into step with you, or do the right thing and fall back into step with the rest of the country? Your choice, but remember if you don't do it quickly, we will forget the whole bellwether thing, like we did with Vermont [was it?]the original 'bellwether state'
Unfortunately, the fastest growing area of Missouri is in the southwest part of the state. Springfield is solidly red, much like their neighbors in Oklahoma and NW Arkansas. KC and StL are losing their influence, although college town Columbia (in Boone Co.) is blue and growing in population.
http://www.observer.com/2008/media/nate-silver-signs-penguin-two-book-deal-worth-sum-high-six-figures
Nate gets a two book deal with Penguin
@phil
...yeah, because the economies of Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota and Illinois (!!!) are really tanking?
Not sure what you have against the Midwest, but it handed this country both the candidate and the election. Then again, maybe you voted Republican.
Missouri is always a red state. But,the college town of Columbia: blue. Kansas City, blue this year. St. Louis: blue this year. I'm in Kansas City, and we are a blue household. I wish I could turn the whole state blue.
Ohio is the new bellwether state in the electoral college...it has been right 12 straight times in matching the electoral college winner
New Mexico is the bellwether state among the popular vote...it has matched the national popular vote winner in 8 straight elections
MO voted for a Democratic Governor by a much wider margin than they voted for Obama to be president. Many commentators assigned the underperformance to "intangibles." Obama also underperformed in the African American vote in MO.
Nathaniel Silver,
Take a break.
Seriously man, do you not deserve a holiday at this point? The Irish may not have the same work ethic as Americans but a Sunday morning post, good god.
congrats on the book deal. $700,000 and worth every penny.
Regarding the discussion on the significance of Missouri going red or blue, I wanted to share my own thinking on the relative significance of the states Obama won and the long term plans for the party. (this really only scratches the surface, but I felt the need to share)
Obama won A LOT of Bush States, including the 3 big prizes of OH, PA, and FL, but I think the party's long term plans center on holding and further growing democratic support in 2 regions: VA/NC and CO/NV. These regions are particularly important because as the NE/MW continues to bleed people, we need to stake our flag in the faster growing regions of the country.
And this makes sense. VA and NC are 2 fast growing, formerly southern states. But a colorable case can now be made that they are midatlantic states and growing bluer by the day. Basically, the "east coast" now stretches from Maine to NC, not just DC. This is what the Obama campaign hopes, and this is why I think the 2012 convention will be in Raleigh. Expect GA to be bitterly contested in 2012.
And the Rocky Mountain strategy makes sense too, especially as more and more discontented Easterns pack their bags for sunnier days out west. I definitely expect AZ to be in play in 2012, and probably MT too.
OH and IN were just gravy, and I don't think they factor into the democratic party's future blue print, since they'll both lose EV's by time 2012 rolls around. I'd put Missouri in this category too. We'd love to win them, but frankly they're not the best investment from a long term perspective.
FL is also growing, but as someone who lives in this crazy state, I can tell you its a real crap shoot. Obama was very smart to avoid placing all his eggs in the FL basket, because its just hard to say what we're going to do down here. That said, I expect the state will grow bluer as the younger cuban generation breaks more evenly between the parties and the state continues to attract northern expats and democratic-leaning immigrants.
Am I missing something major?
Firstly, bell-weather states are a silly notion spouted by talking heads on tv. The replace fact-finding and intelligent analysis.
Second, Virginia is not a good bell-weather state as it is in flux. It was a solidly democratic state until 1968, when Nixon's southern strategy got a lot of Bubbas to vote for Republicans. Since 2000, there has been a tremendous shift in electoral power to the "fake" part of Virginia, where population growth from more liberal states and first/second generation immigrants are starting to flex their muscles.
Expect Virginia to go through several election cycles of schizophrenic results while these changes are digested by the Commonwealth.
The phrase as Maine goes, so goes the nation was popularized in 1936. At that time, Maine held its election for state offices in September, and usually whichever party won the governorship also carried the state in the presidential election. And the candidate who won Maine usually won the presidential election.
So when the GOP candidate won in 1936, the party took this as a sign that Alf Landon would win the presidency over FDR.
Maine indeed did go for Landon. But only Vermont went the same way, leading to Dems taunting, as Maine goes, so goes Vermont.
(offook - what London bookies who underestimated Obama said on 11/5)
Missouri hasn't been a bellweather in 40 years. Thankfully we won't have to hear the pundits go on about how they always vote the winner in 2012 :)
Demockracy's Lawful Dissent Column
@EarBucket
I agree that the phrase could be construed to read that way, but the clearer reading is that McCaskill is giving her own opinion, which, if you follow the link, appears to be the case. The article seems to indicate that it was McCaskill's opinion.
wv-sarcul
the villain in a Sci Fi movie
Missouri actually has been a GOP leaning state from Nixon on. The three times it went Democratic were when Southern governors with evangelical appeal (Carter and Clinton) had the ability to transcend its recent GOP leanings.
"What's Holding Up Missouri?"
Arkansas!
(Sorry - couldn;t resist!!!!! :)
One thing I found refreshing about this election (besides the outcome, of course!) was the fact that, on election night, we weren't just waiting for Ohio and Florida's returns. There were lots of states to look forward to that night. I liked not being at the mercy of two states. MO, PA, FL, and OH were important, but the story really was in places like VA and IN and NC. I know this saying was used a lot, but the map did get bigger and, for me anyway, a lot less stifling.
Obama won A LOT of Bush States, including the 3 big prizes of OH, PA, and FL,
...
Am I missing something major?
The only time PA went for Bush was in 1988, for George H.W. Bush.
It was supposedly a toss-up state this year, and McCain campaigned like he thought it would go Republican, but it ended up going for Obama strongly.
Democrats can forget about Missouri for the a while. In fact, any state that Obama DIDN'T carry this time out he probably won't in 2012.
This doesn't preclude downballot Democrats from doing well of course, only in Presidential elections.
Not every election is going to be a "wave" election. We're coming off the worst economic news since the Great Depression and McCain STILL managed to come within 7% of Obama and win 21 states.
Some people are just too stupid to breath. If they can vote against their own economic interests when things are this bad, they aren't likely to change in 4 or 8 years. So, Republicans are likely to hang onto states that McCain won for the foreseeable future: Mostly Appalachia, the Gulf Coast (minus Florida), the rural Great Plains states, plus Wyoming, Idaho, and Utah.
Montana might flip.
That's the good news for Republicans. The bad news is that this is a minor rump state of less than 200 electoral votes and it's not getting any bigger.
They will have to abandon their divisive social conservatism before they can appeal outside this region, but they won't.
Conservatism after all, can never fail or be repudiated by the American people. It can only be betrayed. Thus, Bush was a solid conservative -- until he became unpopular. McCain failed because he wasn't a TRUE conservative!
(I.e. he was a dangerous liberal on economic issues -- don't ask me why).
Joe the Fake Virignian:
"It was a solidly democratic state until 1968, when Nixon's southern strategy got a lot of Bubbas to vote for Republicans."
Actually, Virginia had frequently gone Republican on the presidential level well before 1968. It went for Hoover in 1928 (mostly because of Al Smith's Catholicism), Ike in 1952 and 1956, and Nixon in 1960. The Byrd machine often tacitly backed Republican presidential candidates.
sfergus 483:
The slogan "As Maine goes, so goes the nation" was a very old one. It was Jim Farley in 1936 who changed it to "As Maine goes, so goes Vermont." Maine was never a bellweather. The reason for the older slogan is simply that they held elections in September, and people looked at that for clues about what would happen in November.
Actually, Landon might have been able to carry New Hamphshire in 1936 as well as Maine and Vermont if only the Republicans had nominated New Hampshire Senator Styles Bridges for Vice-President. But the GOP recoiled from that prospect when they suddenly realized Democrats would be chanting, "Landon-Bridges falling down!"...
What's holding up Missouri?
Anyone who's ever driven across the state can tell you that it's fireworks, porn, walnut bowls, and throwed rolls.
Now that MO has broken its streak, OH holds the current record for voting for the winner in every election since 1964. The last time it missed - barely - was going for Nixon in '60.
Obama should have won this state handily, so Missouri sucks balls regardless. WTF is the tragedy with the people there anyway?
"Missouri hasn't been a bellweather in 40 years"
Right.....
Which explains why it has picked the winning president in EVERY ELECTION DURING THAT 40 YEARS....and only been wrong ONCE since 1900.
What a moronic statement to make in a public forum.
"In fact, any state that Obama DIDN'T carry this time out he probably won't in 2012."
---------
That type of thinking is so 2004.
With a successful term, I could see Missouri, W.Virginia, Arkansas, Georgia, Montana, N & S. Dakota as states worth going after for the Dems. I don't think Obama is finished re-drawing the map.
@ david tenner
You made a good point on Virginia pre-1968. The Byrd machine is being dismantled as we speak.
boulder-liberal - I keep remembering pre-election talk on this site about a complete Blue Route from Florida to Washington. If Obama can hold what he's got (including a vote from Nebraska, bit of cheating there) and add Arizona and Georgia, we're set. :)
IMO Arizona is the most likely pickup; with no home advantage, and with McCain perhaps retiring or being pushed aside by Napolitano in 2010, I wouldn't lay money on the Republicans hanging on to it.
States like MO, TN, and WV are no longer bellwethers; Ohio remains one, but Nevada and New Mexico are close too.
Also, Michael Barone wrote a mea culpa on the Obama ground game, conceding it made the difference in a lot of close states (IN, NC, VA)
http://www.usnews.com/blogs/barone/2008/11/14/obamas-organization-delivered-impressive-results-against-mccain.html
Ellen: Nate is counting net votes there, not gross votes; at 80% Obama, Obama gains (80 - (100-80)) = 60% of the votes cast, because the last 20% that he gets is cancelled out by votes for McCain.
Off topic, but great. Obama portraits, smaller than a grain of salt.
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2008/11/081114200628.htm
Boulder Lib, Dont forget AZ. The only thing that saved it this cycle was McCain. It is a sure pickup in 2012. I wonder if Napolitano will get AG?
Worth noting...
If you take the states in reverse order of % margin of victory, the state that put Obama into an Electoral tie at 269 was Iowa, which Obama won by 9.3%. Colorado put him over the top at 278 EVs, with a winning percentage of 8.6%.
The true measure of Obama's vicory are his margins in these states.
Shouldn't these be the new bellweathers?
Holy cow, fred, those are freaky!!!!
On the book deal CONGRATS! I really hope we see some compilation of Brett and Sean's work too. Would LOVE to see a companion book like that.
I guess Missouri got this one wrong. The next so called "Bellwether" will probably be a state like Ohio or Florida, states with many electoral votes and less than 5% margins in elections.
I doubt Nevada could become a bellwether. It was about 6 points bluer than the rest of the nation, and the places where it has been experiencing the most growth are in heavily Democratic Clark County, and moderately Democratic Washoe County.
I also don't think Iowa or New Mexico could be. Even though Bush one them in 2004, they have both been more Democratic than the country as a whole the last two years. Even though it is easily possible that a Republican could win them, they wouldn't be the states that would easily fall their way in a close race.
Come see my new probably awful blog:
http://youngerpolitics.blogspot.com/
There's just no reason to think it's especially likely ... maybe John McCain is a 99% favorite to win Missouri but not a 99.9% favorite, and the networks usually want more like 99.9% certainty before they call a state.
Doesn't this make sense? If they called at 99% certainty they'd get a state wrong every other election.
"Virginia is not a good bell-weather state as it is in flux."
And the U.S. as a whole is static?
By definition, a state needs to be close to the political center to be a bell weather. The objective voting data shows that Virginia is at the new center of the political spectrum; how it voted in the past is irrelevant.
Other states that came close to the political center in this election are Colorado, Iowa, New Hampshire, Ohio, though all were a couple of points farther from the center than Virginia.
Finally, Missouri should have been stripped of its bell weather status after 2000, since Gore won the popular vote (and that's without even getting into who "really" won Florida).
I think Ohio is a better bellwether than Virginia at this point because Ohio seems to have more voters that can actually change their mind from election to election whereas Virginia has similar amounts of liberal and conservative leaning voters.
@ stevieboy
Yes, this state is in flux. For the first time since 1964, the democratic candidate won the state. If the population increases continue as they have since 2000, then Virginia becomes more like Pennsylvania, a solid democratic state in all but Republican landslides.
Virginia is also in flux because the Virginia Republican party is in shambles. Obama's GOTV completely stomped a confused and frankly complacent organization. The governor and both senators are democratic. The state legislature is republican and the state senate JUST turned democratic in 2007.
So the questions are whether northern "fake" Virginia will continue to express its newfound political power and more importantly, when will the Virginia Republican party get its act together.
Personally, I hoped both the national and Virginia Republican parties spend a good long time in the wilderness. Not much faith that this will occur.
I just don't understand the concept of a "bellwether" state, or the concept of the I-4 corridor in Florida, for that matter.
Say that Missouri votes for the winner almost every time. What Missourians seem to imply by stating that is that one should campaign hard in MO, because if you win MO then you'll win the election. That's completely idiotic -- correlation doesn't imply causation. Even if it were true that MO voted with the winner all the time, the predictive value of that is predicated on not changing the game -- not dumping a whole lot of volunteers and advertising into the state.
Similar talk about the I-4 corridor in Florida -- saying that's where the swing voters are -- so you should campaign there. The whole concept of "swing states" actually makes some sense due to the winner-take-all electoral college system, but within a state all voters are identically equal. Four democratic votes in Tampa are the same as four democratic votes in Miami.
To put it in baseball terms...it really bothers me when people say (as they do, repeatedly, ad nauseum) that games at the end of the season are more important than games at the beginning. They're all the same!
/rant
Doesn't this make sense? If they called at 99% certainty they'd get a state wrong every other election.
Ummmm...isn't that exactly what happened?
2000: called FL wrong
2004: no missed calls
2008: called NE-02 wrong
I definitely agree with MO bellweather's status. It's definitely strange that this state hasn't been called now that it has been almost 2 weeks since the election.
I think someone higher up in the state wants Obama to take MO so they can keep their bellweather status. But all streaks end one day.
The "bellwether" won't be Ohio or Viginia because they're in the path of a realignment trend. It'll stay Missouri or, more likely in my current view, it'll be a competitive Western state while the national Republican Party recreates itself to become competitive in California. The more I've thought on it today the more I can see it becoming Arizona, but Nevada is the top candidate for now.
I wonder how many Snowbirds cast absentee ballets in their home state and in FL or AZ.
It wouldn't take much to have residency in two states is some one wanted to.
I think Missouri will be more likely to vote Obama in 2012. We're the "show-me state" (read - stubborn) and once some of my fellow citizens realize that they don't need to fear an African American, they'll be more likely to vote for him.
As far as how state demographics are changing, clearly the coastal SE of the US has been gaining from other areas signficantly. Therefore, as noted, VA, NC, GA and perhaps others will see a trend of change that will alter the political landscapes there.
loner-
The Dems will take Texas in a Presidential election before the Repubs take California.
The problem for the Repubs is that for them to re-create themselves to be competitive in California, they must break from their religious base.
If McCain the Maverick was too chicken shit to reject these lunatics, I don't see anyone else in the GOP who might do it.
Meanwhile, Obama energized young people and received about 2/3 of the Latino vote.
Thanks to Obama, there's now up to 5 or more swing states in the US. Missouri can kiss its precious title of kingmaker goodbye.
Cugel: If they can vote against their own economic interests when things are this bad, they aren't likely to change in 4 or 8 years.
But that doesn't mean some states won't flip in 4 or 8 years. People do move, and there are demographic shifts. Colorado and Virginia flipped in part (though not solely) due to various people that migrated to those areas. There are also shifting patters due to age groups; try Prop 8 in California in 4 or 8 years and I'd be the result would be different.
Yes, perhaps people who live in some places are unlikely to change their minds (though some did this year). But the people who happen to live in some of those places are in flux.
Ummmm...isn't that exactly what happened?
2000: called FL wrong
2004: no missed calls
2008: called NE-02 wrong
Well, they called Florida correctly at first, even though the polls were still open in parts of the state.
But I guess I was thinking that AFTER that whole mess they'd want to be a little more certain before called states, thus jacking up the certainty level before the call.
And I don't recall anybody calling NE-2 for McCain, but I could have missed it.
I hate being late to the party.
My 2 Cents
Missouri is still a reasonably good bellweather state because of the mix of rural and urban, north (or at least midwest) and south. The growth in the Southwestern part of the state has pushed it a little redder.
Believe it or not Palin may have helped McCain win the state. The state has a fairly large number of Assembly of God congregations and that may have been enough.
Regarding the comments from sfergus483 (if I remembered it correctly) and other dealing with the phrase, "As Maine goes so goes the nation," it became popular in the 19th century, after the civil war. Because of the frequently bad weather in November, Maine held its state elections in late September. The results there were looked at as a harbinger of the NOvember elections.
Come 1936 and Maine,joined with Vermont asthe only two states to vote for Alf Landon, the phrase that was used a lot (at least in political circles) was, "as Maine goes, so goes Vermont."
That reminds me of another phrase, "Blessed are they who run around in circles for they shall be known as big wheels."
wv=essin
the word you utter when you don want to use the F-bomb.
But Claire McCaskill has said that he sees no point in doing so, and besides that, a margin of a few thousand votes is exponentially more difficult to make up in a recount (i.e. it's nearly impossible) than a margin of a few hundred votes, like we have in Minnesota.
It doesn't matter. Anytime the count is within one percent anywhere, there should be a recount, whether your side or their side won.
Over and over, I have heard D's proclaim the principle of making every vote count, and I see no way to interpret that other than as a call for accurate vote counting, regardless of results. Unless you are inclined to see it as self-serving pablum that is peddled only when a candidate is behind.
The tendency to declare accurate vote-counting as 'petty' when the results are known is precisely why somebody like Norm Coleman can demand that whatshisname concede. (The same applied to Al Gore.)
It is to the advantage of the Democrats (not to mention democracy) to insist on accurate counting at all times, so that being 'petty' is normal when the results are up in the air.
max
['Or you could just be morally lazy and then have it come around and bite you on the ass next time.']
andrew said...
OH and IN were just gravy, and I don't think they factor into the democratic party's future blue print, since they'll both lose EV's by time 2012 rolls around.
Ohio is projected to lose a Congressional district in the redistricting after the 2010 Census, but Indiana is projected to stay at 9 CDs. Right now, Indiana CDs are above the average population per CD than the nation as a whole. Although the state is not growing as fast as the US as a whole, it is not losing population. The next time it loses a CD will probably be in 2030.
@Robby: And CNN called, then un-called, then re-called Missouri in 2000, if I recall correctly.
Missourian chiming in: MO Secretary of State Robin Carnahan has already said that she will not certify the results until the last possible day to do so.
One thing that's fascinating political insiders here is that there's this intense argument on the sidelines over the difference between her office's report of voter turnout and literally every county in Missouri's report of turnout, and her office hasn't issued any statement on that, either.
The best guess I can offer is that Carnahan doesn't trust her own numbers, has staff running every calculation and debugging every program and lint-checking every spreadsheet, trying to sniff out any possible errors. Like all the Carnahan family, she's politically ambitious, and really, really wants to minimize her risk that her office will turn out to have made a mistake that will end up sidelining her political career.
Another reason to think that any recount won't change the outcome is that Missouri uses optically scanned paper ballots, which are usually very accurate.
We've lost our Bellwether status. Oh, well. Life goes on.
Jeez, Where do I begin. First off folks, stop being haters. I really think that's what the Obama candidacy was all about, wasn't it?
Nate, you pretty much answered all of your own questions. Missouri doesn't finalize its results until the 18th. There are still enough provisional ballots that the "MEDIA" is too skiddish to call the state.
However, then you end up implying there is some sort of "conspiracy" by Missourians to "throw" the state for Obamba because we like to say we are a bellwhether state? Are you serious? Are you really accusing Robin Carnahan of something nefarious here? I mean, I know you Chicago boys hate the Cards and all, and you are still pretty upset that the Cubs choked again, but, really, enough is enough.
Now, as a Missourian and a Democrat, I have to admit I'm pretty ashamed that Missouri didn't go blue. Believe me, all the Democrats here feel pretty bad about it. But losing the state by 4900 or, when all votes are counted, maybe 1000, is still pretty damn close. Especially, when you consider that Missouri had no early voting like Florida, Indiana, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Carolina or Ohio. These states sound familiar?
If you want Missouri more in the blue column in the future, as well as other states, we need to ensure that more voting reforms occur. That easier access to the voting process is guaranteed, and that Republicans aren't able to reach down into their bag of dirty tricks to practice voter suppression.
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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
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