11.06.2008

What Remains Uncalled

In the presidential contest, only Missouri remains uncalled. The single electoral vote in Omaha remains uncalled, but it looks like Obama will win it. Per the Omaha World Herald,

"I will remain cautiously hopeful but not cautiously optimistic," said Hal Daub, state director for McCain. "I'm disappointed (in the numbers)."

In the Senate, three races remain undecided, and the tally stands at 57-40, in favor of the Democrats, if you include Joe Lieberman. Harry Reid may finally be laying the groundwork to kick Joe to the curb, as the two met today. But that aside, the Georgia race is going to a runoff, and the winner won't be known until December 2.

In Minnesota, an automatic recount will be triggered between Al Franken and Norm Coleman, with the only immediate drama being who will go into the recount with the lead. Coleman appears likely to have that lead, but the numbers have inched closer in Franken's direction.

In Alaska, there seems to have been an across-the-board polling failure, one we wrote about yesterday. Alaskans seem to have gone for the convicted tubes guy, with a giant caveat that thousands of ballots seem to be unaccounted for. Josh Marshall now dryly supports the Alaska Independence Party, and given the way Talking Points Memo has completely owned the Alaska political corruption stories over the past several years, we'd say he's earned the privilege.

In the House, Democrat Tom Perriello appears near to defeating Republican incumbent Virgil Goode in Virginia's 5th district running from Charlottesville down to the southern border. Perriello leads by 639 votes in the Virginia State Board of Elections' latest update. Albemarle was, ironically, where we saw a decent Republican ground game, relative to other Republican efforts. We also saw a huge Democratic effort that dwarfed the Republican operation.

In Maryland, Democrat Frank Kravotil holds a 1,871 vote lead on Republican Andy Harris. That's the race, you will recall, where primaried Republican incumbent Wayne Gilchrest refused to support Harris, with this pricelessly sarcastic gem: “Let's see, the Republican Party, or my eternal soul?" Ballots cast in the 2008 race are 340,886, ballots cast in the 2004 race (presidential years get more than mid-term years) numbered 343,735.

In Washington State, the 8th district rematch between Dave Reichert and Darcy Burner is still not called, with Reichert leading by 1,965 votes, but much of the vote still to be counted by mail-in absentee ballot.

In California, Tom McClintock, of Thousand Oaks, was locked in an extremely tight race with Democrat Charlie Brown for the corrupt John Doolittle's retiring seat in CA-04. With thousands of provisional ballots to be counted, that race is still some time away from a decision.

In Alaska, Don Young looks like he'll hold onto his seat, since he holds a large eight-point lead on Ethan Berkowitz, but again, the Alaska results are screwy and the Young-Berkowitz race isn't called.

Finally, in Louisiana, two runoff elections will be held on December 6. In the 2d district, corrupt Democratic incumbent William Jefferson won his race, and will be a heavy favorite to win re-election against Anh "Joseph" Cao, his Republican opponent. In Louisiana's 4th district, Democrat Paul Carmouche and Republican John Fleming will vie along with two independents for an open Republican-held seat in the +7 Republican PVI district.

618 comments

Yvonne said...

FIRST

Berni said...

Am I the first one? In any case, Nate congratulations for your webpage from Spain! I have been following it since July (and I will keep doing it).

TruthSeeker said...

First

Yvonne said...

Ha, I was first. Anyway again, what happened to Real Joe and his surprise? Did he post it?

mattw said...

So, Missouri is final, then?

De Montfort said...

TPM is wrong about one thing: Palin wouldn't appoint Stevens' successor if Stevens is expelled from the Senate. Alaskan law says that she can only call a special election within 60 days.

Eric said...

walt526 said...
Still, going on history, the Democrats are going to lose seats in 2010 and probably 2012. Nothing Obama (or anyone) can do will prevent the major recession that we've entered and, rightly or wrongly, voters blame the party in power.

I get your point. I won't argue the point. Clinton wasn't perfect. Bush mishandled the problems he inherited horribly though. As for Obama, the problems are all apparent well in advance. His plan is solid. If it doesn't work fairly well, he still might get reelected see Bush 2. Also, you gotta come up with a good candidate if you want to pluck off part of the 269 base I'm talking about. A candidate like Palin or Huckabee or jindal aren't even close. The question you have to ask is can he/she handle it better? no way. gotta come up with a serious candidate if the problems are big. You're gonna flip NM or IA or NV or MN or MI or WI or PA. I don't think so.

Eric said...

De Montfort said...
TPM is wrong about one thing: Palin wouldn't appoint Stevens' successor if Stevens is expelled from the Senate. Alaskan law says that she can only call a special election within 60 days.

Special Election? So no aut-Republican replacement. ie Begich could run again?

Laura in WA said...

Great job on the projections, Nate! It's worth noting that on the only projections you missed (Indiana and maybe the one EV in Nebraska), you were off in McCain's favor. So much for all of those who were accusing you of pro-Obama bias...

Vinny said...

Alaska isn't right. I sincerely hope people plan to do something about this. The Alaskan corruption machine of Palin-Young-Stevens MUST have rigged this vote.

livemild said...

the more you hear about AK the more i think they should just go and end all the misery that they bring to those of us that prefer to live in the "real" united states.

i hear the GOP is sending lawyers up to get some clothes off of Palin- all i can say is good luck!

gougef said...

Blogger Vinny said...

Alaska isn't right. I sincerely hope people plan to do something about this. The Alaskan corruption machine of Palin-Young-Stevens MUST have rigged this vote.

------------------------------

In retrospect, there isn't a single state in the lower 48 (+ Hawaii) where Palin would have ever been elected governor.

Yeah, Alaska is a different sort of place.

Gennette said...

I'm just waiting for the rightmost of those little squares over Nebraska to turn blue. w00t!

Bob X said...

"Anyway again, what happened to Real Joe and his surprise? Did he post it?"
That he expected Indiana to go blue.

Racer X said...

I'm no expert, although I did grow up in Doolittle's district, which does not include Thousand Oaks by a longshot -- unless there was some seriously strange gerrymandering. Did McClintock move north?

someperson718 said...

If we don't get MO this time we will be well on our way to get it the next. GA,MO,MT,ND,and TEXAS are all on the list for 2012.

Vinny said...

I won't be too disappointed if MO doesn't go blue. Again, it saves us from the bellwether crap.

Here's what we won't have to hear:

Bradley effect
Oversampling dems in polls
Biased polls
Biased Nate
PUMA effect
Missouri bellwether
"Fundamental" shifts in the race during convention bounces
Missouri bellwether

I can't wait.

De Montfort said...

Eric,

Yeah, Begich could. But you have to figure that Stevens would run again(which could create a vicious circle, where he would win, then wouldn't be allowed to serve, forcing another special election) and maybe Palin. There's no time for primaries, so it would be the Cali. recall election all over again.

Vinny said...

If we don't get MO this time we will be well on our way to get it the next. GA,MO,MT,ND,and TEXAS are all on the list for 2012.

Don't forget Arizona and Alaska. They didn't work out this year because AZ was McCain's home, and Obama STILL did better than Bush. Alaska was only leaning towards McCain until be picked Palin.

Chris Van Patten said...

The House race in NY-24 is not official yet. The race is tight, about 6,000 vote separation, and they have about 20,000 absentee ballots to count. This one could end up flipping.

Vinny said...

*did better than Kerry, not Bush

sfergus483 said...

Maybe Walt Monahan (the first Alaskan state police chief) could run for the seat, or maybe in a primary against Alaska.

Speaking of which - does anyone know if the Alaskan Senate race would have a primary, an open race needing only a plurality, or an open race with a runoff?

Those are important distinctions.

If it is a Dem vs Rep, I'd assume Begich would run as the Dem, and might run anyway. If Palin doesn't run, Lt Gov Parnell would be the logical GOP candidate.

And of course Begich might still win this time around.

cher said...

Maybe if they let Alaska revote, fairly and all, they would vote the felon out? Or perhaps as someone suggested on this site Alaskan's don't like being told what to do and Steven's has been around forever. Can someone tell me in a few lines what is going on with Mo. ? I don't spend much time here as usual!

bobnsj said...

@Racer X

McClintock has, in effect, moved north. Under California law, you do not have to be a resident of a congressional district to run in it. In my part of the state we had a Congressman (Tom Campbell) who was from nearby but not a district resident. He had actually served in his home district a few years before. McClintock saw CA-4 as a good chance for him to be elected.

wv regrat as in I regrat that he even stands a chance as a carpetbagger.

Andy JS said...

There needs to be a sharper focus on Alaska. We need journalists and news organizations to get off their butts and go and find out what the hell's going on up there. I know there's a big temptation to simply revel in Obama's victory and say nothing else matters now he's won, but this situation in Alaska could turn out to be one of the biggest scandals in US election history.

I don't believe turnout dropped by 85,000 votes in Alaska with Palin on the ticket for GOP supporters, and Obama for Democrats. Someone's got a suitcase full of votes in their garage in Alaska, or something similar.

Mark said...

Is it just NBC News that has called Missouri for McCain?

bobnsj said...

It would be really interesting to know if Alaska's vote was down fairly uniformly across the state or just in specific areas. If it's uniform it could be a lot of people didn't vote because the presidential result was pretty plain while they had several hours of voting left. If is in only certain areas, fraud really begins to raise its head.

tomthress said...

Nate, or anybody else,

The general consensus about turnout this election was that it was 130 - 140 million. These were the numbers being talked about even on Election Day. CNN's Presidential popular vote totals only add up, as of now, to something like 124 million or so.

Are there really 6-16 million votes out there still to be counted? If so, is there any sense of where they might be? And aside from the uncalled races mentioned here, is there any possibility of anything else changing when (if?) we see these last votes come in?

uberfrosh said...

@racerx

There was a big fuss in the primary because McClintock was not from NE CA, as you said. His response that hushed the crowd was that he "planned to move there". I never actually found out if he did.


@ eric re:walt526

I was looking at it earlier today and 2010 actually seems like it could be another good year for Dems. 19 defending R vs 14 defending D with some no brainers in there (although it would be very funny to see the governator challenge for senate). Some seats in now solid blue states like PA could be picked off as well as a wealth of moderate states (FL, OH, AZ!!!, NH). With popular governors in AZ and KS facing term limits, there might be some exciting times. Dems might lose AR or ND, but on balance (assuming Obama slows down the recession or at least makes some competent political decisions) we could see ourselves break 60.

Eric said...

I'll put my Obama 2012 projection in a less partisan way. There are 269 electoral votes worth of states where Obama won by 10%+. these states are solid blue without a gigantic unlikely sea-change. There's a list of states that got him to 365 electoral votes where he won by less than 5% including Florida, Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Omaha where they could all easily flip back with the combination of a less than great Presidency and a really solid GOP cnadidate and message. That leaves 2 states that were blue by between 5-10%, Colorado and Virginia. the census will pull away about 6 electoral votes from that 269, so one more state will be necessary. To flip colorado or Virginia back to Red would probably take a lot, but is feasible. also, a regionally popular candidate could help. For example a Romney could play well to Michigan or New Hampshire. Maybe Pawlenty could pull Minnesota. My point is the landscape looks pretty good for 2012 for Obama.

flynnie said...

I Think Biden Will Be a Great VP: A reminder of the BS he had to put up with. Read the last paragraph first

Click here: http://mediamatters.org/items/printable/200811050003

undeadgoat said...

You really ought to do a good meaty story about the Louisiana 2nd at some point. There's some really good stuff. I was working at our local Obama office when a guy supporting the primary challenger (due to a fluke of electoral stupid, a fake Democrat white woman who is half Mexican but dyes her hair blonde) came in to do some canvassing for us. He was upset that he'd seen Obama/Jefferson literature that looked really similar to the Obama/Landrieu stuff the state party had actually prnted up, and a lot of our staff (young black guys from New Orleans) started getting really agitated, especially as he looked to be angling to snap up the white female staffer from Colorado for the general election if Moreno won. Good stuff, good stuff.

soozzie said...

I'm with the conspiracy theorists on the Alaska vote...in Berkeley CA where I used to live -- that bastion of progressive/radical leftism -- we had several elections where the numbers did not make sense. Turned out bags of ballots were unaccountably "found" in the basement, ballot boxes "inexplicably" had more votes in them than the number of voters in the precinct, etc. My precinct once had 102% of the voters voting! Time to do some old fashioned investigative journalism.

Aaron said...

It surprises me not at all that one of the states who are primarily using paper ballots and those awful optical scan things are at the source of the problem. The problem in Alaska, as the problem always with paper based systems, is probably ballot security. Great: You've got a paper record. Paper record, meet a box of matches. No more ballots, no more votes.

Its too bad that this coalition of hysterics, neo-luddites, conspiracy theorists and bitter losers has moved us away from the superior, auditable, and more secure DRE systems. Hopefully good 'ol Alaskan corruption will finally turn the tide back towards the same sort of secure computer systems that we use for our banking.

Andy JS said...

The most conservative estimates were for about 130 million votes.The latest total is 123 million, which is only 600,000 more than 2004.

It's funny how we're missing a few million votes across the whole country, and then we find that weird things are going on in Alaska and Georgia which might explain some of it, (although not all).

Amot said...

In Alaska they found another 14 000 ballots that has to be count for a total of 75 000 (early vote, provisional, question)!
I bet that will go as high as 85-90 000 and Begich has a good chance to win it if Nate is right about Dems participating strong in absentees and early voting and week on election day!

Grant R. said...

Getting Goode out of VA? Heavens to Betsy! Good Job UVA! Good Job Sweet Briar!

wv: equishe= online quiche supplier

ogmb said...

What are the opinions why the polls were off in Arizona and North Dakota?

[wv: defins - dose fokes phrom hellsinki]

ogmb said...

Also, what are the scenarios where Missouri could still go blue?

[wv: ungsti - Missori election is still ungsti]

KIC said...

HOT DOG, re: NE's 1 EV. OMG, for once I almost feel relevant :) (Not actually in Douglas county but vewwwy vewwy close.)

Andy JS said...

People wouldn't believe a fictional story that had a convicted senator apparently winning an election, and then a few days later a whole lot of votes are discovered in someone's basement showing he actually lost after all. (The second half of that is still fiction, let me affirm).

cher said...

There are some great people up in Alaska that I discovered days after the Palin pick. It was great to read the thoughtful blog by very bright people, mudflats is the name. Just google it. They are asking questions big time about the Steven's case.

Just saw the new Obama website. Wow

http://www.change.gov/

Feels so right

ennuidivine said...

Looks like NBC is the only mainstream source to call MO for McCain. Every district has reported, though provisional and absentees always take a bit longer to sort through.

McCain's up by 5,859. An Obama victory is possible, but unlikely.

As for Alaska: the number of uncounted ballots could put Berkowitz over Young (unlikely) and Beigch over Stevens (much more likely, but it's still looking as though "Uncle Ted" will be returned to the Senate to face expulsion.

If that's the case, it'll be a mystery as to whether Palin's deputy Sean Parnell would be the GOP candidate or if Palin herself woud resign to run in the race. In either situation, this one's a hold for the GOP if Stevens wins re-election.

Alastair Norcross said...

According to CNN and the Minnesota Secretary of State's office, Franken just gained another 100 votes. The margin is now down to 236.

Dumb Anguish said...

For the first time in my life, I'm proud to be a citizen of Omaha :)

You have no idea the coronary it will cause the conservative state of Nebraska to have one of our electoral votes turn blue!

CRLIndoland said...

I cannot believe. I am locked in a tight "Obama Will Change the World" office pool in Jakarta and it all comes down to Nebraska! Damn I need that vote! Warren, don't let me down.

clubok said...

You've forgotten OH-15, where Republican Steve Stivers currently leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by a mere 146 votes, according to the Secretary of State's website. Provisional ballots remain to be counted, and then this race is almost certainly headed for an automatic recount.

Philipp said...

Has anyone some information what's going on in Missouri? For almost 48 hours now, the vote count stands at about 5,900 votes in favor of McCain; nothing is moving there at all. Clearly, there has to be a reason why no one (except NBC News) is willing to call the state for McCain. Obviously there must be a certain number of outstanding ballots (absentee/early voting?) that theoretically could still tip the state. Unfortunately no news organization seems to think it's nesseary to inform was what they are waiting for exactly.

Aussie said...

This is probably a bit late, but I am covinced that this site will live on (Back ground music - theme song from Titanic) but perhaps via leadership from Nate & Sean, we might all start to use the correct titles of the people we are blogging about, eg, Gov Palin & President Elect Obama.

I think that by lifting the level of respect, we might all do our small part in raising the standard of politics,

I have noticed this omission in many newspapers and mainstream news broadcasts.

Even Australia's Prime Minister couldn't address President Elect Obama correctly in a national interview.

Just a thought.

WV: Onmen: a news article about gay males.

RedHawksO4 said...

This is great news for Obama. Talk about a real cross-country mandate. However, it will make life hell for CNN, etc.


The Morning After the Election

Steve said...

Reid can't kick Lieberman to the curb until he is certain that 60 isn't possible. Once one of the uncalled Senate races goes to the GOP, Lieberman will be out -- and rightly so. This is going to be fun to watch.

Matt W said...

Alastair Norcross said...
According to CNN and the Minnesota Secretary of State's office, Franken just gained another 100 votes. The margin is now down to 236.

Yes! Per the MN SOS...
Franken 1,211,306
Coleman 1,211,542

Difference = 236 votes

I think this latest 100 votes must have been a recording error.

Andy JS said...

Most networks and organizations have not called Missouri for McCain.

It's too close. There are still provisional ballots and maybe overseas ballots to count. That could take a few weeks to do. The fact that the 5,800 vote margin is not changing at the moment doesn't mean that is the final result.

North Carolina was called because the margin there was about 14,000. 5,800 is a different story.

The Adverb Ninja said...

You're probably aware by now, but on the Yahoo! homepage is a story about Nate and fivethirtyeight lauding its accuracy.

Notably, the story mentions that "the only thing they projected incorrectly was Indiana," when in fact Nate predicted Indiana would go blue because of the Obama ground game despite his statistical analysis indicating it would stay red. By my reckoning, the only blemish is the lone Nebraskan EV looking to go Obama's way.

Here's the link:

http://news.yahoo.com/s/ynews/ynews_pl141

Nate, Sean, Brett and crew: well done.

KQuark said...

Nate thank you thank you. Not only did you keep me sane for months you are the statistical master of this campaign. Calling the popular vote as close as you did was just a thing of beauty to watch. It was good to see some news sources like Rachel Maddow give you your props. Thanks again you meant more than you will ever know to many people like myself.

clubok said...

I think Lieberman's status depends very little on whether he is the 60th vote. Regardless of his status vis-a-vis the Democratic party, he'll still tend to vote his conscience on any given issue. And 60 isn't such a magic number anyway. Very few votes end up splitting exactly among party lines; there will almost always be a few crossovers in one direction or another. There is no bright dividing line between 59 and 60, like there is between 49 and 50 (or 50 and 51, depending on who the VP is).

loner said...

If history is any guide there are at least three million votes unreported in California and probably a good many more. All in good time.

There were around 2.5 million California votes unreported 10 days after the election in 20004.

clubok said...

on the Yahoo! homepage is a story about Nate and fivethirtyeight lauding its accuracy

Unfortunately, 538 was less accurate than pollster.com, with its cruder mathematical methods. I mentioned in an earlier thread that the average error (more specifically, root mean squared error) in the predicted margins for the 51 contests was slightly higher here than at pollster.

Eric said...

Does anybody have a full understanding of what's going on in Minnesota? Are there ballots yet to be counted? Why is there no information anywhere. We know how many ballots are left to be counted in other races.

Beckee said...

I am really crossing my fingers for Tom Periello in VA 5. His opponent, Virgil Goode, is the ignorant incumbent who objected to Keith Ellison being sworn in using Thomas Jefferson's Koran. Goode wrote a letter that said:

"When I raise my hand to take the oath on Swearing In Day, I will have the Bible in my other hand. I do not subscribe to using the Koran in any way. The Muslim Representative from Minnesota was elected by the voters of that district and if American citizens don’t wake up and adopt the Virgil Goode position on immigration there will likely be many more Muslims elected to office and demanding the use of the Koran."

wv: boatery --a great sport.

Devin said...

Norm Coleman is out of his mind for declaring victory and telling Franken not to ask for a recount. He's leading by just 236 votes at 8:55 pm ET.

cher said...

Phillip thanks for answering about Mo ... couldn't find much on it. I mean wouldn't you think it would be of some interest in the MSM. NC was like some sort of an afterthought too and that is historic.

I appreciated the post about Nate on Yahoo page, I don't go there any more so it was fun to read it. No one knows how this site helped me work on and keep doing whatever I could to GOTV. I started here long ago in the primary's and while others were telling me it would never happening I was ordering my Obama sign which cost $20 and having it fed ex'd. Because I knew!

Andy JS said...

I wish the networks wouldn't say 97% has been reported in California when there are still around 3 million more votes to come in. They need to change that way of reporting it for the next set of elections.

Eric said...

Devin said...
Norm Coleman is out of his mind for declaring victory and telling Franken not to ask for a recount. He's leading by just 236 votes at 8:55 pm ET.


What's left to count? Why does the margin keep closing. Is everybody in the dark?

Reid said...

@Eric

Short answer: the tallies are changing because they are checking for and finding typos.

Minnesota Public Radio has good coverage.

The Star Tribune is the local corporate rag and also has reasonable coverage.

Andy JS said...

Someone said earlier there had been a tabulation error in Minnesota which resulted in Coleman's majority being cut by 100 votes.

tylerxdurden said...

I Think Biden Will Be a Great VP: A reminder of the BS he had to put up with. Read the last paragraph first

Click here: http://mediamatters.org/items/printable/200811050003

If you sit and really intently listen to him he's got some very interesting things to say. But, while not really "elite" in his speech, it is dense so it takes some effort. I think for the very reason it is interesting ... what he talks about has a large measure of detailed substance.

Lindsay said...

Did I miss some sort of big hoopla over North Carolina being called? CNN still isn't showing those results.

John McCain is my Love Child! said...

Man, it just isn't the same anymore.

Yet I still dutifully read each and every posting.

KWRegan said...

@Eric, Reid, Devin, re. Minnesota Senate:

The real question IMHO is, why are the "typo-correction" errors favoring Franken by such a margin? Even if "+/- 100" is like a coinflip, Franken has an excess of 5 such "heads", and it takes a fair # of such flips to make that likely.

Is there a page where the adjustments are being tracked? One time today I saw both numbers tick *down*, Franken briefly under 1,211,000.

ogmb said...

Reid can't kick Lieberman to the curb until he is certain that 60 isn't possible. Once one of the uncalled Senate races goes to the GOP, Lieberman will be out

Reid should poach Snowe and/or Collins. They got no business staying in a Republican caucus that's now even nuttier than before.

[wv: ouspecom - I'm still waiting for the ouspecom of the Missouri election]

Davy said...

Nate's coming up next on Rachel Maddow.

wv: thrilike - apropos

Vinny said...

They got no business staying in a Republican caucus that's now even nuttier than before.

I agree...especially in deep blue Maine.

Specter too. But it's not that bad if we can't get them, their vote will be just as good from the republican side as it would be from the democrat side.

Andy JS said...

Most organizations have called North Carolina for Obama. CNN is unusual in not having done so. Maybe they're being super-cautious.

Vinny said...

And yes, Coleman is a fuckwad. I'm going to laugh if these sporadic updates bring Franken up by double digits, then lets see Coleman concede. LOL, that hypocritical fuck knows he wouldn't.

Ben said...

Google news moved Georgia back into the toss-up column in the Presidential race. Has anyone heard anything about why? Not that I mind, but I haven't seen any reasons.

Allen said...

I know several people here have puzzled over Alaska and what the heck is up with Sen. Ted Stevens and Rep. Don Young. Believe me, you just have to have lived in Alaska in order to understand the culture and politics up there.

My family moved there in late 1974 when I was only 5 years old. Stevens and Young were already in office. I left after graduating from high school. I'm 40 now.

Don't think for a moment that either of these men were clean until recent. People in Alaska know how corrupt all levels of the government are -- its always been that way. People look the other way, suspicious crap gets swept under the rug, and when it comes time to vote people just always vote for the guys they know -- because even though the politicians are crooked, they do a lot of good for the state and its people.

And in a state where everyone seems to know everyone -- and business and political circles are even smaller -- payback for bucking the status quo is a real bitch. Thus apathy is rampant.

So I'm not in any way, shape or form surprised that both these men have won re-election despite investigations or convictions.

They are Alaskan senior politicians. They'll go when they are ready, or when they are led away in chains.

And the majority of Alaska voters really won't think too much about it one way or the other.

Rebecca said...

Sorry to be, like, the one person harping on Hillsborough County.... But today they just about literally found a 'suitcase full of ballots' on (republican election supervisor) Buddy Johnson. His office was stuffed with boxes of unsecured ballots, mostly from students at University of South Florida (where I teach), and - lo and behold! - once they were counted he went from 3000 votes ahead to 12,000 votes behind. AND there are STILL 70,000 votes uncounted! This is first-class corruption so extreme it feels like I am trapped in a Batman movie. I hope some people on this site other than me care about this! We had tons of black folks and university students and others here in Tampa voting for the very first time and braving long lines in scorching heat, and it's just so sad that the whole event was completely corrupted and no one in the rest of the country really cares.

But hell, on the other hand, OBAMA F*CKING WON AT LEAST 364 ELECTORAL VOTES! YIPEEEEEE!!!! (My high still hasn't worn off...)

beamman said...

"Harry Reid may finally be laying the groundwork to kick Joe to the curb, as the two met today."

I am surprised that Reid is having this meeting already, before he knows the outcome of the uncalled races. What he can and should do with Lieberman is entirely a function of those outcomes. I think that, if Dems lose any of the three, leaving 60 out of reach, then Lieberman is toast. However, if they win all three, they need to hold on to Lieberman to get that mark (unless they can convince someone in the GOP to flip to the Dems).

Probably, though, Joe will need to make SOME sort of penance, even if they ask him to stay in the caucus. Remember, the Dems DO have some leverage over Lieberman: he can't be a committee chairman if he walks away.

Andy JS said...

Allen: thanks for that information about Alaska.

Ben: interesting news about Georgia. I'm still trying to find out whether there are any missing votes there.

There must be some missing votes in Alaska. The only question, it seems, is whether they've been deliberately or accidentally prevented from being counted.

Listen to my Hype said...

Throwing myself on here for the 5th time today, as opposed to being logged in contiously for 15 hours a day and plowing through 300 posts =). I saw the Yahoo thing too, pretty neat, felt like saying "oh, I know that guy, I have read and tried to understand some of his work".

It isn't the same, but I can do without the near panic attacks...

mhigh said...

Where Nate Went So Very Right...and So Very Wrong.

If you look at the FiveThirtyEight final projection map, and compare it to the actual results -- Nate was almost perfect. But if you take a closer look at the actual numbers, in somes cases he was spot-on, and in other cases...not so much.

Here's a quick state-by-state rundown, comparing the 538 final projection to the actual vote totals. First column is the state, second column is the 538 projection, third column is the actual total, final column is the divergence between the two.

MO Mc+ 0.2 Mc+ 0.2 0.0
NY Ob+25.4 Ob+25.4 0.0
MD Ob+23.0 Ob+23.1 +0.1
MN Ob+10.1 Ob+10.2 +0.1
VA Ob+ 5.6 Ob+ 5.5 -0.1
MT Mc+ 2.7 Mc+ 2.5 -0.2
NJ Ob+14.5 Ob+14.7 +0.2
SD Mc+ 8.7 Mc+ 8.5 -0.2
NH Ob+ 9.8 Ob+ 9.5 -0.3
DE Ob+24.1 Ob+23.7 -0.4
AL Mc+22.2 Mc+21.6 -0.6
NC Ob+ 1.0 Ob+ 0.4 -0.6
OH Ob+ 3.4 Ob+ 4.0 +0.6
FL Ob+ 1.7 Ob+ 2.5 +0.8
SC Mc+ 9.7 Mc+ 8.9 -0.8
TX Mc+10.8 Mc+11.7 +0.9
CO Ob+ 6.6 Ob+ 7.8 +1.2
OR Ob+14.8 Ob+16.3 +1.5
GA Mc+ 3.7 Mc+ 5.3 +1.6
NE Mc+14.5 Mc+16.1 +1.6
CT Ob+19.8 Ob+21.5 +1.7
KS Mc+13.6 Mc+15.4 +1.8
TN Mc+12.9 Mc+15.1 +2.2
PA Ob+ 8.1 Ob+10.4 +2.3
IA Ob+11.7 Ob+ 9.3 -2.4
IN Mc+ 1.5 Ob+ 0.9 2.4
MS Mc+11.3 Mc+13.7 +2.4
WI Ob+11.5 Ob+13.9 +2.4
ME Ob+14.5 Ob+17.1 +2.6
KY Mc+13.6 Mc+16.4 +2.8
UT Mc+25.9 Mc+28.7 +2.8
IL Ob+21.8 Ob+24.7 +2.9
WA Ob+14.4 Ob+17.5 +3.1
WV Mc+ 9.8 Mc+13.1 +3.3
CA Ob+20.6 Ob+24.0 +3.4
AZ Mc+ 4.9 Mc+ 8.6 +3.7
RI Ob+24.1 Ob+27.8 +3.7
MI Ob+12.6 Ob+16.5 +3.9
ID Mc+20.6 Mc+25.4 +4.8
NM Ob+ 9.7 Ob+14.5 +4.8
OK Mc+25.7 Mc+31.2 +5.5
MA Ob+19.9 Ob+25.8 +5.9
ND Mc+ 2.7 Mc+ 8.6 +5.9
WY Mc+25.2 Mc+32.5 +7.3
NV Ob+ 4.9 Ob+12.4 +7.5
LA Mc+ 9.9 Mc+18.7 +8.8
AR Mc+11.1 Mc+20.0 +8.9
VT Ob+24.6 Ob+35.2 +10.6
AK Mc+14.2 Mc+25.3 +11.1
HI Ob+27.5 Ob+45.2 +17.7
DC Ob+59.4 Ob+86.4 +27.0

So, I'll throw the questions to the class - why was Nate right, and why was he wrong? Can we glean anything from these numbers?

Just looking over the numbers while typing this, it appears that the 538 projection underperformed the actual total (in both directions) in the vast majority of the cases. Also, it appears that the closer the race, the smaller the discrepancy (although there are plenty of exceptions).

Also, it appears that many of the states that have the greatest discrepancies (DC, AK, HI, VT, AR, LA, ND, WY, MA, OK) might be partially explained away because there were very few polls done in those states, compared to others. In fact, that could partially explain why closer races (battleground states) have smaller discrepancies - more polls, more data.

But that doesn't explain everything. Why was the 538 projection on Nevada so far off, for example?

Anyway, those are just a few thoughts. Hopefully we could figure out where the 538 model went wrong, so that the model could be improved for future elections.

Jamahl said...

This has nothing to do with remaining states to be called. What I don't understand is the model for Missouri. Nate's polling average, trend adjusted, regression, and snapshot lean towards Obama. Yet the projection and win% go towards McCain. How is this? Nate got it right (McCain appears to have won by 6000 votes, but the last 3 polls indicate either tie or Obama.

I understand that statistically this is all a mute point because on any other day of the week, Obama probably could have won by 6000 votes, but the 4 factors listed above seem to suggest otherwise

Andy JS said...

Rebecca: I'm very interested in the situation in Hillsborough County. Keep telling us the latest situation from there. I can't believe suitcases of votes are being discovered down there in the way you describe. It's unbelievable.

It's weird because the one county in Florida I was looking at before the election - to see how early voting was going - happened to be Hillsborough County.

Rebecca said...

Hey! What timing! Just as I posted, it was announced that Buddy Johnson has 'conceded' and (presto) the other 60,000 votes in HIllsborough County have been found and counted! YIPEE!!

Leigh said...

Go, go Perriello! Why should Southside settle for Goode when it can have someone even better? ;)

Listen to my Hype said...

Hey Rebecca,

That is horrible, going to check orlandosentinel.com to see if they have picked up on that. I did think it was odd that Orlando was so straightforwardly blue (Orange County) where I live by such a great margin, and Tampa was flat out red. Thank GOD it didn't necessarily matter like it did in 2000, we would have never heard of the end of it, and we already never will. Someone needs to make sure those voices are heard though, they would make all the difference since FL was so close to call for so long.

Anne said...

>> http://www.change.gov/

Oh my god. It's real. It really happened. You don't get a .gov domain extension if it's not real.

KWRegan said...

To answer my own note about the numbers ticking down, the reason was posted in the Star Tribune's "The Big Question" blog here:

------------------------------
2 Responses to "Coleman lead over Franken, 4:20 p.m. Thursday: 590 votes"

bitwise says:

November 6th, 2008 at 5:00 pm

The upwards blip was only because one precinct’s totals were briefly removed and then a little while later, added back in.

It’s back to 336 now.
-----------------------

Still 226, 1,211,542-1,211,306 as I write this. Sure, Wonkette sez Nate has the power to make numbers f***, but can he make them procreate?

WV: "ishanc"---as in, "any way Franken can win?" "Is(c)hanc(e)."

Anne said...

and it's a gorgeous site. Serif fonts! Now that's mavericky.

Kristina said...

In response to uberfrosh, McClintock may or may not now live in his district but it's a fact that he represented Ventura and Santa Barbara counties while lying about living there. He represented me and, conservative as he was, I thought he was authentic. I now know he's a fraud.
Charlie Brown is a great candidate and now needs help. Even $5 sent to his campaign will help:https://www.charliebrownforcongress.org/contribute.php

Davy said...

Nate just said on Rachel Maddow show that Palin COULD appoint herself to the senate seat that would be vacated by Stevens. That's contrary to what several of you posting here have said. Anybody got a reference that states the actual circumstances?

Vinny said...

I don't accept what happened in Alaska. If they're going to vote for the felon no matter what, that's what they would tell the pollster.

Not to mention turnout is down, makes no sense. Begich himself brought up points on his site.

Votes were either eaten by Diebold/stolen by the corrupt Alaskan machine or the Begich votes are all absentee.

kjk said...

nice lipstick, nate ...

Anne said...

@Davy
I think that the Gov would appoint someone for a very short time until the new election as opposed to appointing someone to fill out the remainder of the term.

wv: icarackw!

Andy JS said...

I just had a bright idea that someone could contact the governor of Alaska to ask them about the missing votes in the state. Unfortunately, I then remembered who the governor is.

SCIndie said...

@ Davy, anne

Posted this last night, a ballot initiative that passed in 2004:

03SENV - Repeal Temporary Appointment of U.S. Senator
This measure would repeal state law by which the Governor makes a temporary appointment of a person to fill a U.S. Senate vacancy until a special or regular election can be held. Under existing law the seat would remain vacant until the election is certified and the senate meets. Existing law provides that a special election will be held within 60 to 90 days to fill a vacancy unless the vacancy occurs within 60 days of the primary election for that seat. This initiative does not change that provision.

There was another poster on here arguing that someone may challenge it as being unconstitutional, an argument I disagree with, but will not rehash here because, frankly, I don't care enough.

sunshine fortress said...

Did anybody notice on election night that fox was quick to give those 4 close senate seats to the Republicans? They still show GA as a Republican seat even though there will be a runoff. I really hope the Dems don't get to 60 so that they can kick Lieberman out.

Vinny said...

Palin probably hid Begich ballots under her bed.

Rich said...

Why is CA-44 flying completely under the radar? Here's the situation: Bill Hedrick is trailing Ken Calvert by 4,640 votes with 50,000 - 100,000 votes (provisional and mail-in) still to be counted. These ballots are from Riverside County, which broke for Hedrick 52.6 - 47.4. That means those ballots could very well give the race to Hendrick or move it into recount territory. It was called on election night because Calvert posted an early lead and was expected to win easily.

What gives? The vast majority of news organizations (MSM and otherwise) seem to be completely missing this one.

mhigh said...

>>I understand that statistically this is all a mute point because on any other day of the week, Obama probably could have won by 6000 votes, but the 4 factors listed above seem to suggest otherwise<<

I don't mean to be a grammar Nazi, but it's "moot point", not "mute point".

Sorry, just a pet peeve of mine. And the second time I've seen the phrase mis-used like that in the past 24 hours.

Rebecca said...

Exciting Hillsborough news unfolding ... the 'missing' votes are being counted and Obama just went from 1% to 8.5% ahead here in the course of a couple of hours. Still about 10,000 votes to be counted, basically all from USF students and voters from a nearly all-black precinct in East Tampa.

Turns out we also not only voted Buddy Johnson the crook out, but Kevin Beckner the openly gay democrat IN as county commissioner! I am soooooo relieved! Now I don't have to move! :-)

Rebecca said...

@mhigh -
">>I understand that statistically this is all a mute point because on any other day of the week, Obama probably could have won by 6000 votes, but the 4 factors listed above seem to suggest otherwise<<

I don't mean to be a grammar Nazi, but it's "moot point", not "mute point".

Sorry, just a pet peeve of mine. And the second time I've seen the phrase mis-used like that in the past 24 hours."

Or, in the immortal words of Joey from Friends .. "It's a moo point. You know, moo, what a cow says - it doesn't matter!"

Tee-hee I am a little bit giddy.

qazwart said...

The election was called for Obama by 7:40pm Alaska time. And, by 3pm, Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Florida had fallen into the Obama camp. By then, it was pretty obvious that the election was Obama's. That could be the reason why the low voter turnout and the bad polling results.

I checked and Hawaii also had a low voter turnout too. There could be something to the "called election" theory on why voter turnout dropped.

Samuel said...

This is what happened with OH-15.

Various news outlets failed to notice that Franklin county (the large county in the district) was reporting total vote counts, including the votes from the two rural, red-leaning counties which are also in the district. Thus, the AP and CNN ended up double-counting those counties and giving Stivers a large lead. The AP un-called the election after realizing the mistake, but a lot of news stories with the race called are still flowing through the tubes.

If the provisional ballots go the way they did 2 years ago, Kilroy will pick up 1500 votes and win the election by about the same margin that she lost it by last time. That's a big if but Stivers certainly is not celebrating.

Anyway, yes, you forget OH-15 and it remains uncalled.

Andy JS said...

Thanks Rebecca.

I'm checking on CNN's website for Hillsborough County, but they seem to have had the same results there for ages:

Obama - 219,580
McCain - 209,503

I hope they update it soon.

Julie said...

I believe McClintock lives in Elk Grove (just south of Sacramento), represents Thousand Oaks, and wants to represent Placer County and the rest of NE California. No connection between any of those locations.

carlos said...

I think MudFlats did a better job of covering the Alaska politics angle.

Andy JS said...

I just checked the US Census Bureau for voting age population statistics:

2000: 202.6 million
2002: 210.4 million
2004: 215.7 million
2006: 220.6 million

They don't have the numbers for 2008, but it seems reasonable to assume a figure of 225 million, given the trend above.

According to uselectionatlas.org, the total number of votes in 2004 was 122,293,548, which gives a percentage turnout of 56.7%.

This is the interesting thing: just to have the same percentage turnout as 2004 would require a total vote in 2008 of 127.6 million - because of the increase in the voting age population.

So the current total of 123,222,207 is running about 4.4 million short of the 2004 turnout when we take the increased population into account.

We need another 4.4 million votes before we can even start talking about an increased percentage turnout on Tuesday. And that was supposed to be one of the biggest stories in this election.

(I know that criminals can't vote and that a lot of the increase in the population includes immigrants who are not registered, but that probably doesn't change the main point I'm making).

bobnsj said...

Julie said
"I believe McClintock lives in Elk Grove (just south of Sacramento), represents Thousand Oaks, and wants to represent Placer County and the rest of NE California. No connection between any of those locations"

To put that in east coast terms, this would be a guy living in Richmond, VA, formerly representing Columbia, SC and now running in Hartford, Conn.

Mason said...

I didn't mean to step into the arena of how Obama "wasted" money or the issues of whether or not he "discussed" - as you suggest - using public financing. I was simply addressing Sherwicks absurd claim that McCain spent (public) money campaigning, McCain lost the election, and the de facto conclusion being he wasted money.

TS. You did.

Let's go to the video tape:
...Yup, McCain wasted HIS time and OUR tax dollars

You fucking idiot!

That's the most asinine thing I have ever heard.

How much money did Obama spend again? I realize it's not "public" funds, but it was a fucking ton of money to be sure. Money completely wasted, and millions of which could have gone to much better causes....



I said it wasn't wasted, because the donated money went exactly where it's donors wanted it to go. I said it buoyed local economies by buying goods and services (advertising counts). You said:

Obama spent over $1 billion campaigning. That is ridiculous. Comparing that to money donated to the Red Cross makes you look like incredibly dense. No one was 'helped' by getting Barack Obama elected. It was money poured into advertising, GOTV efforts, etc. NOT directly helping the needy with donations.

McCain only did what everyone has done before him and what Obama himself SAID HE WOULD DO at the beginning of this thing.


Ignoring the rediculousness of your claim that "no one was helped by getting Barack Obama Elected (TV and radio stations were rolling it in, as were others associated with the process) you foolishly brought up the "OMG!! OBAMA LIED ABOUT Public FINANING!!" meme. It's just not true. Give it up.

Or ESAD. I don't really care.

Tabula Rasa said...

thanks, rebecca from hillsborough county. i think this is the first piece of genuinely good news on the irregularities front! (though that may be a mute point :-D)

wv: portead (n). a grateful dead fan from oregon who went down to eugene to vote.

Philipp said...

Thanks Andy for the interesting turnout statistics. I find it very regrettable that the turnout percentage is never provided by the media; that number is actually a lot more meaningful than the total number of votes.

Let's say we still reach the 2004 turnout of about 57% - internationally that is a dreadful number. It makes you wonder what would happen if the U.S. ever saw a really high turnout (let's say high be European standards, 80-90%). I'm afraid - with multi-hour lines as it is - the system would completely collapse.

Jack said...

Nate, what about Missouri? Do you have any word whether Obama is ready to call for a statutory 1% recount? According to MOLAW, no automatics, the candidates must request. Obama must request it because I think votes will be found.

Andy JS said...

Philipp:

What I can't understand is why there always seem to be so many people trying to vote in one single polling place in America. Here in the UK, each polling place has a maximum of about 5,000 voters. With 12 hours of voting and a 80% turnout, that would mean about 300 voters per hour, which is 5 or 6 voters per minute. There are hardly ever any queues in the UK, even though it's a much more densely populated country than the US.

In some American cities, there seem to be many thousands of voters trying to vote at a single polling place at the same time, with large queues. It seems that in many densely populated areas in the US, the number of polling places is simply inadequate.

Mason said...

Jack asked:
Nate, what about Missouri? Do you have any word whether Obama is ready to call for a statutory 1% recount? According to MOLAW, no automatics, the candidates must request. Obama must request it because I think votes will be found.

Don't you think he has bigger fish to fry right now?

toniperryb said...

I live in Missouri, and I was wondering why the state had not been officially called. I looked on the official state results page and saw something that really surprised me. The turnout for the city of St. Louis was fairly low compared to other parts of the state--not the lowest, but fairly low relatively speaking. As there is such a high percentage of AAs in the city, this perplexed and rather disturbed me. I am wondering if anyone has heard anything about purging in St. Louis or high numbers of provisional ballots.

Leigh said...

Missouri has a vested interest in having the state go for Obama, of course, so if Obama knows what's good for him he'll try for a recount. No use pissing off an entire state by tarnishing its image as a (pretty reliable) predictor!

Davy said...

@mhigh

"I don't mean to be a grammar Nazi, but it's "moot point", not "mute point"

I don't mean to be an irony nazi, but wouldn't that make you a 'spelling nazi' rather than a 'grammar nazi'?

Sorry to poke at you but I just couldn't let that one pass

Chris B said...

Hi Nate,

If all electoral votes were assigned in the way Nebraska assigns them, what would the Obama vs McCain electoral score have looked like?

Chris B

Vinny said...

Hi Nate,

If all electoral votes were assigned in the way Nebraska assigns them, what would the Obama vs McCain electoral score have looked like?


I'm not sure, but I bet it would be really close or a McCain win. Many congressional districts have very low populations, but are deep red. Luckily, people vote, not acres.

tomthress said...

"I live in Missouri, and I was wondering why the state had not been officially called. I looked on the official state results page and saw something that really surprised me. The turnout for the city of St. Louis was fairly low compared to other parts of the state--not the lowest, but fairly low relatively speaking. As there is such a high percentage of AAs in the city, this perplexed and rather disturbed me. I am wondering if anyone has heard anything about purging in St. Louis or high numbers of provisional ballots."

MO's Secretary of State projected turnout of 3.2 million. CNN's numbers look like something closer to 2.9 million. Could there really be an extra 300,000 votes sitting out there waiting to be counted? If those are in the St. Louis area, Obama would seem to be in pretty good shape. Or did the Secretary of State just over-estimate turnout by 10%? (As an aside that 10% below forecast is actually pretty consistent with the national numbers so far, where there seem to be perhaps as much as 15 million missing votes still out there somewhere)

source: http://www.bnd.com/336/story/528122.html

Mark Irish said...

Vinny...

All CDs have roughly the same population... that is the nature of congressional districts.

mirrormirror said...

Andy JS. The difference from the UK is that the ballots here are massively more complicated as they include votes for senate and governorships, local officals and various local initiatives (eg. Prop 8). I've seen a ballot paper and it had about 25 different questions on it spread over two pages. So it takes a lot more time to fill in.

I think that's the reason why machines are used as well, as it's so difficult to count these complex ballots manually, which means there are also fewer polling stations than in the UK as they all have to be equipped with expensive machines.

The bit I don't understand is who is actually responsible for collecting and counting all the votes? (I'm a Brit living in the US, and this is my first election, so I'm au fait with some of the system but not all.) In the UK the election is run by an independent body called the Electoral Commission which is responsible for overseeing elections, and I've never heard of fraud at all let alone on this sort of scale.

Andy JS said...

Jackson County, Missouri (containing most of Kansas City):

Total Votes:
2004 - 315,993
2008 - 337,857

That's an increase of 6.9%


State of Missouri:

Total Votes:
2004 - 2,731,364
2008 - 2,916,792

That's an increase of 6.8%.

There are two ways of looking at those figures. Either you can say there's nothing strange because the increase in Jackson County was almost the same as Missouri as a whole. Or you can say it IS strange because you'd expect Kansas City to have a bigger increase in turnout than the rest of the state, because of the large African-American population in Kansas City.

Selva said...

According to the latest report from the California SOS, there are 2.36 million ballots yet to be processed.

Surely there are several million votes yet to be tallied in other parts of the country as well. Much of the discussion here on turnout based on the reported 123 million votes is premature.

Andre said...

The most competitive partisan race in Orange County was in the 44th Congressional District where Democrat Bill Hedrick faced corrupt Republican Ken Calvert last week.

Provisional, paper, and late absentee ballots -- 100,000 of them -- are still being counted, and Calvert leads Hedrick by only about 4000 votes.

Please do not let Calvert steal this election! Republican lawyers have descended on Riverside and are working around the clock to try to disqualify as many ballots as possible. Bill Hedrick has retained a top-notch election lawyer to help him, but he needs money to help pay the lawyer's fee.

Please, please, do NOT allow a Florida-style debacle right here in Orange County. Donate here: http://www.actblue.com/page/hedrickballotfund

The local and national media are taking notice. One of the biggest stories of the election is taking place right here in Orange County. Please, make your donation to be sure Bill's supporters aren't disenfranchised the way Al Gore's were in Florida 8 years ago.

Here are some of the printed and online reports:
http://www.politickerca.com/jamesgerber/3123/ca-44-too-close-call
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/erik-ose/supposedly-safe-gop-house_b_141910.html
http://www.swingstateproject.com/showDiary.do?diaryId=3880

Please, donate today. You are the margin of victory, and Bill Hedrick needs whatever financial support you can spare to prevent this election being stolen.

http://www.actblue.com/page/hedrickballotfund

KIC said...

Why does no one every realize that the money Obama had really went directly into the economy? I mean, it pays rent for offices, buses, buys office supplies, pays phone bills, buys food and snacks, and a gazillion other things from the local communities of his bazillion campaign offices. My God, it was like his own mini stimulus package. People really need to stop griping about it.

Andy JS said...

mirrormirror:
thanks for pointing that out about the size of the ballots.

selva:
California should take us up to 126 million votes with those figures you mentioned. We still need some more from other states: hopefully Alaska, Georgia, and Florida should be able to provide a few more.

Forrest J. Bowlick said...

From ESPN:

"After hauling in Cutler's TD pass, Marshall, who spent the week exchanging barbs with Dolphins linebacker Joey Porter, was about to pull something out of his pants when teammate Brandon Stokley ran over and stopped him from getting a possible personal foul.

After the game, Marshall said he had a black-and-white glove designed to honor President-elect Barack Obama."

Can this be great news for John McCain?

wv- 'pressin' Too easy.

cher said...

oops I didn't spell check this and didn't mean to say 'voting rights act' but if anyone is still awake perhaps they can help me out with the Why 60 votes / Lieberman question.

Not use to seeing my posts actually come up so fast here, getting more like the old places except Nate had more time for us!

Mason said...

My point exactly KIC. Thank you for spelling out explicitly what I thought people could figure out for themselves.

Reazur said...

Nate & fivethirtyeight team,
congrats on your successful electoral prediction, real time analysis of polls and the coverage of the ground game at the state level. Without this site, this election would not have been so much fun!!! So thank you!!!

BTW, there is a an article on yahoo today about whose election projection is correct... You finally get some credit for your work.

Selva said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Rich said...

You can add CA-44 to the list with MO, AK, and Hillsborough. 50,000 - 100,000 ballots from Riverside County (precincts that likely favor the challenger) remain uncounted. Meanwhile, the incumbent holds a 5,000 vote lead.

Andy JS said...

I don't want to be too critical of the United States, because I love the country, but it does sometimes seem as if not enough money is spent on election offices, vote-counting machines, election staff, etc. Obama should try to change this - voting is one of the most important things that people can do, and there should always be enough funds available to make the election process run smoothly.

A good example is the fact that in Pinellas County, Florida, this year the number of early voting places was cut from 11 to 3 because of money shortages. That sort of thing should never happen. The federal government should be able to step in to sort out problems of that kind if the local or state governments are not interested in solving the problems.

RobR TX said...

I just want to point out one other thing that Obama's victory ushered in:

The average quality of the comments on this site has gone up a full order of magnitude in just a day or two. I was curious to see what it was like here after the election, and so far, I am pleased. The trolls have no motivation anymore, and us poll addicts and political junkies can bounce things around with civility.

Can I get an Amen?

Selva said...

Andy,

You are right we need another 10 million or so to reach the ~136 M that Prof. McDonald estimated. I am assuming that if CA has 2.36 M remaining all other states together could well have 10M remaining. Most states don't appear to publicly post unprocessed ballot numbers so hard to tell.

GA numbers are suspicious though: This press release says 3.9 million votes cast (74.1% of active voters). There are two problems with this data. First, the registration statistics at the same site states 5.7 M registered voters; 74.1% of that would be 4.2 million. Secondly, the turnout in 2004 was 77%, how come its only 74% this year in spite of the huge early voting?

walt526 said...

You're gonna flip NM or IA or NV or MN or MI or WI or PA. I don't think so.

Any of those states are winnable for the GOP in 2012 with a competent candidate/campaign. We had to fight for each of them (some more than others) in 2008 (ie, Obama ran ads and visited all those states).

Although Obama was a brilliant candidate, we waltzed to victory because McCain was spectacularly ineffective and the economy tanked. Just like Clinton didn't win 1996, so much as Dole's ineptitude lost it and a economic boom boasted Clinton.

In 2012, the economic troubles will be working against the Democrats (as the incumbent party in power) and the opposing candidate will be better (McCain was historically bad).

In an earlier thread today, someone brought up the West Wing parallels. Well sometimes you get to run against Robert Ritchie and sometimes you have to face Arnie Vinick. It is wishful thinking to expect another Ritchie.

John said...

"Why does no one every realize that the money Obama had really went directly into the economy? I mean, it pays rent for offices, buses, buys office supplies, pays phone bills, buys food and snacks, and a gazillion other things from the local communities of his bazillion campaign offices. My God, it was like his own mini stimulus package. People really need to stop griping about it."

I wonder if some of the $150,000 shopping spree Palin went on will "trickle down" to me!

John said...

As for Lieberman and 60 - if the Democrats can hold a "filibuster-proof majority" of 60 seats with Lieberman included, then that would be fantastic. If with Lieberman or without they can only get 57, 58, or 59 seats... there's not really a significant difference as it's a solid majority that can still be filibustered. Hence, Lieberman becomes pretty irrelevant. He's only important if he's that 60th seat caucusing as a Democrat.

scooterup said...

THE DEMS WILL DEFINITELY PICK UP THE 1ST CONGR. DISTRICT IN MARYLAND.
Election day voting put Frank Kratovil up by 900+ votes, with about 28,000 absentee ballots outstanding. This would normally be good news for the Republicans -- because despite almost 50-50 registration of Dems-Reps in this district, the Dems are very conservative and one might expect many of their absentee ballots to favor the Republicans. In fact, Obama was decimated in this district. But here's where geography and Republican in-fighting matters more than party affiliation and more than liberal vs. conservative: the 1st District consists of 9 counties on the eastern side of the huge Chesapeake Bay (these counties are called the "Eastern Shore") and only portions of 3 counties on the western side of the Chespeake Bay (these counties are NOT called the "Western Shore").
Frank Kratovil is a Democratic State's Attorney from one of the Eastern Shore counties. The 'retiring' Congressman, Wayne Gilchrist, is a moderate Republican from the Eastern Shore who was defeated by ultra-conservative Republican Andy Harris (from the western counties) in the Republican primary. The "divide" between the Eastern Shore and the counties on the other side of the Chesapeake Bay is so significant -- and retiring Republican Congressman Gilchrist endorsed Democrat Kratovil -- that the Eastern Shore voters gave Frank Kratovil 10% more votes than they gave Obama in election day voting, and so Frank Kratovil finished 9% ahead of Republican Andy Harris in the Eastern Shore counties in terms of election day voting (52% to 43% with the remainder to 3rd parties).
In terms of absentee ballots, slightly over 60% of the absentee ballots are from the Eastern Shore counties, and thus it is highly likely that Frank Kratovil will get at least the same percentage jump over Republican Andy Harris in these absentee ballots. Even though the counties on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay are likely to give Andy Harris a bump, there simply aren't enough absentee ballots from these western side counties -- and Harris isn't capturing enough of them -- to offset Frank Kratovil's election day lead of 900 votes, which will also be enhanced by Eastern Shore county absentee ballots.
BOTTOM LINE: Kratovil will be the new Congressman, the first Democrat representing that District in 18 years.
Assuming the Dems re-elect their Governor in 2010 (and they will surely continue to hold both Maryland legislative houses), count on the state to re-configure the 1st Congressional District to spread some of the Republicans on the western side of the Chesapeake Bay into other Congressional districts, thus assuring that Kratovil can remain in Congress until at least 2020, as long as he continues a middle-of-the-road approach (actually, he's 'progressive' on environmental and civil rights / social issues, and more conservative on fiscal / criminal / business issues -- a recipe for success in this huge district that includes the Chesapeake Bay).

Davy said...

@tabla rasa

No fair making fun of my town :D

Mason said...

"Why does no one every realize that the money Obama had really went directly into the economy? I mean, it pays rent for offices, buses, buys office supplies, pays phone bills, buys food and snacks, and a gazillion other things from the local communities of his bazillion campaign offices. My God, it was like his own mini stimulus package. People really need to stop griping about it."

I wonder if some of the $150,000 shopping spree Palin went on will "trickle down" to me!


Dunno. Are you an Neiman Marcus shareholder?

Seriously though if you accept the $1 billion figure, it's as if ever man, woman and child went out and spent a little under $3 on things instead of saving it. It went somewhere and helped someone. It changed hands, generated tax-revenue, contributed to local economies.

Davy said...

@chris b

"If all electoral votes were assigned in the way Nebraska assigns them, what would the Obama vs McCain electoral score have looked like?"

A brainiac named 'walt' in the last post had a really convincing answer for this question

wv: ungase - African gas station?

Everett Rowdy said...

Greetings from Juneau, Alaska. As far as our state goes, I follow the theory that the simplest answer is usually the correct answer: most Alaskans have their heads up their asses.

While I am not such a geek on this as to google-surf for it, our polls always underestimate the Republican vote by 10-15%. Tony Knowles was predicted to beat Sarah Palin for governor by 10% and he lost. The same for the previous gubernatorial race between Fran Ulmer and Frank Murkowski. There is something chronically wrong with polling here.

Also: Alaska state law currently conflicts with U.S constitution regarding replacing a dispelled senator. State law (via voter initiative) requires an election. Federal constitution gives the governor the right to anoint a replacement. This was discussed in detail in last night's What's up in Alaska? thread on this site.

cher said...

Thanks John. I just was not figuring out this out and realize that I could have puzzled it out but asked instead. Get it and appreicate you explaining it. Just really hope that he is out because what he did was horrific. His remarks were worse then the last Dem turn coat, Zell Miller and he knew exactly what he was doing and depending on the fact that if he could do enough damage that Mc Cain would win and he would have a new job. Cannot stand that guy. I would hope there are some people in Ct. who watched him this time around and are as upset as I am. Doesn't seem you could be a pro Obama or Democrat and be forgiving of his behaviour.

Andy JS said...

Selva:

I'm suspicious of the Georgia voting figures too. From all the reports before the election, there should have been a greater increase in turnout than this:

2004 - 3,301,875 votes
2008 - 3,890,654 votes

Remember that the population of Georgia increased by 9% from 2004 to 2008, one of the highest in the country, with an additional 200,000 residents each year recently, so we'd expect the turnout to rise simply because of that factor. Also, the state is around 30% black. So I'd have expected at least 4 million votes in this election, which is what the Georgia Secretary of State thought would happen.

If there are more votes, they probably wouldn't be adequate to give the state to Obama, but he could narrow the current 5% GOP lead to an even more uncomfortably small margin

cher said...
This post has been removed by the author.
flynnie said...

"By the way, if Stevens does win, it will be with about 106,000 votes. In total. There are more people than that in my immediate neighborhood! What kind of state is this, anyway?"

Gail Collins, NY Times

aikar said...
This post has been removed by the author.
The Real Pete Kent said...

Hey Nate I may be a conservative but I want to lick your balls like everyone else here- y'know 538-after dark stylee! :))

But I just hope we get some non-naive Dopecrats/Obamabots posting soon.

First.

wv: liscu = word verification is totally 'liscu' i.e. out-of-date and boring.

RobR TX said...

Something to note in all discussions of how well this or that polling site did in its predictions: How well did they call things a little ways out? I think that THIS was the thing that was the value-add of the model to me.

We all know that a single poll is fraught with uncertainty, and a simple average of polls is a bit better but still susceptible to illogical swings and groupthink. 538's use of demographic and historical data made it so much better.

To look at the other sites, you would think that this election had some wild swings that I don't think it really had (remember the almost perfectly predicted convention bounce? - remember how every other site/pundit reacted?)

Polly said...

Andy JS said...

In some American cities, there seem to be many thousands of voters trying to vote at a single polling place at the same time, with large queues. It seems that in many densely populated areas in the US, the number of polling places is simply inadequate.

Some would argue that the lack of polling places and the length of the lines are engineered. In some cases, I would tend to agree, but in most, it can likely be put down to basic incompetence. You'd think that after doing this whole thing for a couple of centuries, we could manage to get it right...


Everett Rowdy said...

Also: Alaska state law currently conflicts with U.S constitution regarding replacing a dispelled senator. State law (via voter initiative) requires an election. Federal constitution gives the governor the right to anoint a replacement. This was discussed in detail in last night's What's up in Alaska? thread on this site.

Not quite. Supposedly, the federal constitution allows that a state governor may appoint a replacement if they choose. However, it also states that any state may enact laws that change how such a situation is handled, and the state's laws will then be followed.

However, there was some question from the Alaska thread about the actual legal wording of the law in question and how it could be interpreted to apply.

WV: rogreha - Some politicians use rogreha to thicken the number of constituents in their districts.

Andy JS said...

"Barack Obama is young, handsome and tanned.''

That's the latest gaffe from Italian prime minister Silvio Berlusconi. He believes those qualities are just what is needed when Obama holds negotiations with Russian president Dmitry Medvedev.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27576574/

susan said...

What a scoop the comments, once again, provide, about Hillsborough County. I don't think Rebecca should worry too much about this making the news; it will.

Right-based cheating has been so commonplace (and of course the attack has indicated (via ACORN et al.) that the shoe was on the other foot) that it is wonderful that the facts are finally being exposed.

Hope "flynnie" is following up on all this. It's a tribute to the credibility of this site and its tendency to reveal breaking news in the posts and comments that she is here.

goatdan said...

Damn do I hope that Franken pulls up in votes before the recount officially starts. Being up 50 votes after Coleman saying that he shouldn't "waste" the state's money would be poetic justice to me. And, how it stands I figure that Franken has a pretty damn good shot of going up -- if provisional ballots are left, I'd assume the majority of first time voters are going to vote for Franken and I wouldn't doubt that 600 or so provisional ballots would be enough to put him over the top.

And making Coleman look like an ass after that if he has to request the recount would be just super. Seriously though, with less than 400 votes out of nearly 3 million separating them, who wouldn't ask for a recount, and why would Coleman make such a stupid ass comment.

Oh wait, since he is a stupid ass.

In other news, Bachmann is already back to being a dumb, hateful bitch. Seriously Minnesota, how the hell could you have re-elected someone who the *next day* sticks her foot in her mouth again, and says that she worries that she won't be able to disagree with policy because it might be viewed as "racism."

Worst. Congresswoman. Ever.

Andy JS said...

I couldn't believe the way Coleman came out just a few hours after polling closed to declare "the people had spoken." It was obviously far too early to be claiming victory, even if his margin had been two or three times larger than it actually was at that time. Obama won North Carolina by 14,000 votes, but it wasn't called for more than 24 hours.

susan said...

Polly and Andy JS

I vote in Boston, which is quite busy; in off hours this time I voted in 15 minutes, my friend who went during peak time took an hour. How difficult can it be to have adequate resources? They switched from levers to scans some time ago, and there have been no problems. Of course, the lines can wait inside so the ballots couldn't get wet. How obscene is it to impose a "poll tax" of long waits in discomfort and at the risk of employer retribution at the lowest income levels.

Someone earlier talked about money and electronic machines. Part of the problem is the certified incompetence (and that's being kind) of the electronic machines, which could be (and were) hacked like a spreadsheet to steal elections, were quite expensive, and has to be replaced at great expense because of same.

I am baffled that a country that has nationwide credit cards and ATMs cannot design a simple electronic system.

Andy JS said...

The first thing is that they should have anticipated long queues and found somewhere for people to queue inside rather than out in the rain.

Also, I've noticed that the polls close very early in the United States compared to the UK and other European countries. Here in the UK, the voting hours are always 7am-10 pm across the whole country. This means people who cannot afford to take time off work can either vote in the morning before work, or after work. Most people have 3 or 4 hours in the evening available to vote before 10 pm. But in states like Indiana and Kentucky, the polls close at 6pm, leaving no time for people to vote after work. Only New York and Rhode Island are open to 9pm.

My opinion is that America should abolish touch-screen voting and go back to using paper ballots like you used to do in the past. You can still use optical scanners to count the votes, and if the result is close, a genuine recount is possible. I was amazed that no-one in the USA realized that touch-screen voting means it is impossible to do a recount in the event of a close result. You just get the same result printed out each time with touch-screen voting.

oldwhiteandpoor said...

"There's something awfully scwewy going on awound heah..."[Alaska] - E. Fudd

John said...

Nate, PLEASE put all your polling and analytical acumen to work trying to figure out WHAT is going on w/the Alaska vote. I haven't yet seen any explanation that sounds remotely plausible as an explanation for the dive in turnout and double digit poll reversals.

Is the weirdness consistent across the state? Focused in certain regions/precincts? Evidence of tampering? Of lost votes? Inquiring minds want to know and we trust you to get to the bottom of this!!!

RobR TX said...

By far my favorite post election gag

http://www.theonion.com/content/video/obama_win_causes_obsessive?utm_source=embedded_video

although this one is really good too.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=MWZHTJsR4Bc

walt526 said...

RE: Lieberman and 60 seat cloture


I don't really understand the whole "well we're not going to get to 60 anyway, so screw Lieberman." The Democrats can still drum up 60 votes for cloture on key issues, they'll just need to reach out to moderate Republicans depending on the issue so reaching out to Lieberman is important regardless of who he caucuses with.

Based on the National Journal's rankings, here's who Democrats can look to work with on economic issues:

Collins-ME
Snowe-ME
Specter-PA
Grassley-IA
Voinovich-OH

Social Issues:
Snowe-ME
Specter-PA
Collins-ME
Lugar-IN
Hagel-NE

Lieberman scores much higher than any of these Republicans, so alienating him strikes me as cutting off your nose to spite your face. Make nice and don't count on him for foreign policy issues, but keep him close on everything else. I just don't see the point of alienating him by stripping him of his chairmanship and expelling him from the caucus.

flynnie said...

http://www.newsweek.com/id/167596/page/1

The Minnesota race is likely to be decided in the Senate, which will seat Franken. The same could happen with Georgia and Alaska. The constitution gives the Senate the authority to determine its members, and the decision is not subject to appeal.

loner said...

It remains my guess that when the results in California are finally certified there will have been more than 13,000,000 counted votes cast for President there.

Counting and verifying take some time and AP talks to election officials to find out what their estimates are with regard to how many ballots remain to be counted and how many remain to be reported. AP has always done a good job in this regard in the past.

All states must certify by 12/12. The site I looked at did not have certification dates for New Hampshire, Rhode Island and DC, but the first state they did have a certification date for was Vermont on 11/11.

Alaska has an 11/25 target date, California is 12/1, Florida is 11/16, Georgia is 11/18 and Missouri is 12/9.

On 12/12 we'll be able to figure out what the final turnout and win percentage are provided that certain websites are updated. Until then, the numbers are going to change daily.

Davy said...

@cher

Agree with you that voting is still problematic. I think the whole electoral college thing needs to be revisited. I understand what the intention was back in the 1700's but it doesn't seem relevant today. It seems open to manipulation. Even the Obama campaign used it as a strategic means to win.

I also have qualms with reporting the results. I think polls should close simultaneously (I live in a western state) in order to avoid voter influence from eastern polls.

Additionally, I wish all states observed some type of early voting to give everyone ample time to vote without having to miss work (a form of poll tax to businesses). In Oregon, the mail-in ballot works beautifully. We get advance mailers outlining the candidates and thier qualifications and information on all the measures plus arguments for and against each measure. We get our ballots two weeks in advance and do not have to stand in line at polling places.

Finally I think that measures should be installed to prevent 'party raiding'. Rush Limbaugh advocated this to listeners after McCain was nominated. He instructed republicans who didn't get to vote to vote for Hillary in the primary because he surmised that she would be easier to defeat in the primary.

Now it looks like financing is out the window, too.

I realize most of these items are state issues but you'd think that after 2000 we would be so outraged that we'd do something about making voting equitable.

Sorry to unload all that. You can tell I'm still sore about the last eight years.

Coert said...

Full blog post can be found at coert.com

As a Dutch person I had some thoughts/views on voter turnout. I would be interested what you guys think?

---

Though this was considered a historic election by many, turnout wasn’t as high as expected. It’s estimated to be around 62,5% – the highest since 1968. That is low compared to the Netherlands where in general elections turnout is roughly 85%. I see the following causes of that low turnout in general in the US:

1) The electoral college system. This system is in place in order to assure smaller states are not made insignificant. The side effect is much worse: large portions of the vote simply don’t matter. Are you a Republican in New York, California or New England (possible exception of New Hampshire) or a Democrat in the Deep South or on the Prairie? Your vote simply doesn’t matter. Also, the weighting is out of whack. For example: any vote in New York is only worth 1/3 that of a vote in South Dakota.

2) Two party system. For a people so obsessed with choice, it’s amazing there are only two major flavours to choose from. And these parties will do anything to keep it that way. By, for example, electoral district optimization. For years now both parties have made sure that they have as many absolute majorities in districts as they can. This means that if you’re from the opposite party in a certain district your vote is wasted in respect to your representative. Also this makes it very hard for third parties to get into the game. The dominance by the two parties is also over the media, so that third party candidates are not allowed in the debates. It promotes corruption: many big cooperations donate money to both parties, there’s no other reason possible than that they are hedging bets and buying influence.

I would advocate a splitting up of the both parties. I know this will never fly, but if they can do it to Microsoft, why not to the two mayor parties? Have one party for the religious zealots, one for the libertarians, the liberals, the democratic socialists, the socialists (Yes, there’s a difference), the greens, etc. I know there are already such parties out there, but they are too small to be taken seriously. The new parties wouldn’t be allowed to merge for at least another three decades.

All of a sudden people would be able to truly vote their minds, without having to get some murky compromise to boot. No longer could small but powerful blocks – like the religious right, or the unions or Wall Street – hijack a whole country. Like in the Netherlands they would have to form coalitions to govern. This already happens in the US, but it happens behind closed doors, orchestrated by the party top brass. There’s no way for the voters to directly influence that at the moment. It would allow true representation of both economical, political and cultural preference of the populace.

3) Underfunded election organization. Standing in line for hours, in a first world country?! This simply shouldn’t be. Just invest more in machines and people and standardize the whole thing. Even with a turnout of roughly 85% I don’t know anybody in the Netherlands that ever had to wait more then ten minutes in order to vote. If the Netherlands were a US state we would be the fifth state in electoral votes, after Florida, so it has nothing to do with being a small country.

4) The length of the process. I’m not saying it should get cut down to roughly six weeks or so – the standard in Europe – but 21 months? People get election fatigue. The Daily Show was already calling it “the Long Flat Seemingly Endless Bataan Death March to the White House” as early as of April ‘08. I’m not sure I know that much more about Obama now, than I did back in December ‘07 when I first read an in-depth article on him in the Atlantic Monthly.

5) Calling states before other states have stopped voting by the media. This should simply be forbidden, no official tallies till the next day. It’s taken 21 months, what’s one more day? That way people on the west coast will just be as involved as people on the east coast.

As long as these issues are not solved, the biggest democracy in the world will mostly be a tell, don’t show country. Do as I say, don’t do as I do.

chris said...

Please say it ain't so:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2008/nov/07/barack-obama-arnold-schwarzenegger

This report in a reputable newspaper too.

The Real Pete Kent said...

'Reputable newspaper'= Obamabot code for one that's in the tank for Obambi.

The Real Pete Kent said...

"US President-Elect Obama’s Grandmother Wants to Attend Inauguration"

Guess that's not the one he threw under the bus.

walt526 said...

I also have qualms with reporting the results. I think polls should close simultaneously (I live in a western state) in order to avoid voter influence from eastern polls.

So do you close polls early on the west coast or make the east coast wait 3 hours to hear results? If the former, then you are disadvantaging west coasts who vote after work. If the latter, then it's just inviting leaks from the various county offices. It's a great idea in theory, but I don't see how it could be implemented.

franglais said...

Andy JS-

There was a good article in a recent New Yorker about the history of voting in the US. It seems we use an old Australian model, and then patch things together from there.

As others have said here, our ballots are much longer, what with the propositions and all.

But I agree, there needs to be some kind of maximum voters per polling place; it IS very disproportionate.

Here in France, where I can't vote but get to watch my wife "do it," the lines are long, too. Last time, we waited a good hour. And that was just to put a card with name in an envelope, and drop it in a box!

A truly fool-proof method, that!
I'm afraid it might seem too antiquated and "European" for some Americans, though.

The Real Pete Kent said...

rahm emanuel= he-man, u r male. coincidence?

walt526 said...

I know this will never fly, but if they can do it to Microsoft, why not to the two mayor parties?

Let me see if I can find one...

Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

There's no constitutional protection for commercial integrity, but there is for freedom of speech and freedom of assembly--particularly when it comes to political expressions of each. There is no way that any attempt to legislate political parties could survive any sort of mandated break up.

If the US ever evolves beyond a two-party system (and I highly doubt it would), then the breakup will need to come from the bottom up rather than the top down.

Philipp said...

The AP reports about Missouri:

McCain led Obama by 5,868 votes - a difference of 0.2 percentage points - out of more than 2.9 million cast, with all precincts reporting results. But the race was too close to call because more than 7,000 provisional ballots remained outstanding.

Provisional ballots are cast when voters’ names can’t be found on the books used by poll workers. The ballots are counted only if it is later determined the voters were eligible. That process could take some time. Local election officials have until Nov. 18 to certify their results to the state.

Historically, far fewer than half of the provisional ballots cast in Missouri actually end up counting. Secretary of state spokeswoman Laura Egerdal said yesterday that there’s no reason to believe this year will be any different.

http://www.columbiatribune.com/2008/Nov/20081106News029.asp

This doesn't sound like Obama has a realistic chance to close the gap. Not sure, if there might be an automatic recount under state law though.

mirrormirror said...

Coert, I agree with everything you suggest.

To that list I would add.

- Remove party affiliation from voter registration forms. That way it's in everyone's interest to maximise the votes and nobody knows which votes to suppress. If the parties want to choose their candidates via primaries/caucuses voters would have to register separately directly with the parties.

- Set up a properly funded independent national body to oversee elections

- Ban all TV advertising. In the UK all radio and TV advertising is banned but each major party is allocated a series of 5-10 minute slots on each of the major channels to use as they want for mini infomercials.

This ensures parity between the two major parties and removes the need to raise such enormous amounts of campaign funding.

- Improve the quality of political journalism on TV. In the UK bipartisanship means journalists asking candidates from both parties equally searching questions, not just giving both sides equal airtime to spout bullshit.

- Keep the debates. They're good.

Coert said...

Mirrormirror -

Excellent additions. The US lacks somebody like Jeremy Paxman. It's telling that the best questions came from David Letterman when McCain went back to his talk show.

flynnie said...

Election day should be a national holiday.

bushworstever said...

I'd like to see Election Day moved to a Saturday in mid-October, with the polls open for the same 24-hour period across all time zones. They would close everywhere at the same time, and the networks would go nuts for an hour or so, calling the easy states, then settling in to await totals from the tighter ones.


wv: jinfins -- Aniston appendages

Davy said...

@walt256

That's why I advocate early voting or mail-in voting in addition to same hour closings. Of course it doesn't give the networks as much drama.

chris said...

OK, since the link I posted was broke:


"He's been a body-builder, a movie star and leader of the most populous state in the US. But could Arnold Schwarzenegger, now nearing the end of his days as California's governor, be offered a place at Barack Obama's side in Washington?

Speculation is swirling that Schwarzenegger will be offered the role of energy czar in the incoming Obama administration. There has been Beltway chatter about the prospect ever since he was named as a contender for the job by the authoritative politico.com website.

At first blush, this seemed an unlikely prospect. Schwarzenegger likes to live large: he has the Hummers (although he cut down the size of his fleet), the Harley Davidson that he likes to ride along the Pacific coast at weekends, the private jet he takes several times a week from his home near Los Angeles to his office almost 400 miles away in Sacramento. And then he has the high-emission cigar habit.

And he has not been kind to Obama. Appearing at one of John McCain's final rallies in Ohio, he derided Obama's "skinny legs" and "scrawny arms", adding that the Democrat needed to put some muscle on his policy ideas. He also dismissed Obama's tax policies as "Soviet spread-the-wealth policies".

This summer he criticised his wife Maria Shriver, a member of the Kennedy clan, for her support of the now president-elect, saying that she was "absolutely wrong with that Obama fellow".

But the chatter has refused to go away. It stems from an interview Schwarzenegger gave in July to ABC's George Stephanopoulos. "I'm always ready to help in any way I can," he replied when asked if he would be willing to fill the role. "I've committed myself to be a public servant."

The speculation resurfaced this week in the Wall Street Journal in a piece by Keith Johnson, lead writer for the paper's environment blog, who cited the California governor's impressive record on green policy, from support for renewable energy to running one of his Hummers on biofuel.

Obama and Schwarzenegger also oppose increased offshore drilling and they share targets on reducing emissions, an area where California has led despite opposition from the Bush administration. Back in May, Schwarzenegger even issued a press release praising Obama for introducing a national version of California's low carbon fuel standard.
us"

In the guardian, but rumour from Politico. Say it ain't so!

Davy said...

@walt256

Additionally, with mail-in ballots it eliminates the need for polling booths/machines. Don't get me started on Diebold or touch screen irregularities.

Saint Lemur said...

Norm Coleman is out of his mind for declaring victory and telling Franken not to ask for a recount. He's leading by just 236 votes at 8:55 pm ET.

Same strategy as Bush in Florida 2000. Act like the election's already over, the press might start treating you as senator-elect and portray the other guy as a sore loser.

WV: "ingers". It ingers mi thit piliticians ict this wiy, bit thiy di.

Coert said...

davy/walt256

I agree mail-in would fix a lot of problems straight away.

How long before you'd hear stories of the political parties trying to infiltrate the US Postal service?

Davy said...

Dang. I guess everybody went to bed. Being an insomniac sucks

obsessed said...

I'm still here. Any news?

chris said...

News? Arnie for the Administration? Please, no! Can't find it on Politico.

Leigh said...

Some of us just woke up. Anyway, nada. Virginia SBE still has its numbers from 7:13 p.m. EST last night, with Perriello up by 648. The NYT &c. STILL haven't updated their sites, though... .

Coert said...

I very much doubt Arnie will get chosen, he's too theatrical.

Also, if that's the best guy in the whole country to be energy czar, then the problems are even much bigger then I feared.

justsomeguy said...

Did Obsma win? I think I just woke from a dream...the Bush mightmare is still ongoing...I we just dreaming about Obam, right?

justsomeguy said...

Did Obsma win? I think I just woke from a dream...the Bush mightmare is still ongoing...I we just dreaming about Obam, right?

justsomeguy said...

I also clearly did not put my glasses on on waking, try this:

Did Obama win? I think I just woke from a dream...the Bush nightmare is still ongoing...I was just dreaming about Obama, right?

Coert said...

Was just reminded by Justsomeguy's typo: We didn't hear anything from Osama Bin Laden. You guys think he's dead? Clearly McCain -being more hawkish and therefore playing into their "let's bankrupt them" strategy- would be their favorite, and however ironic a message from Bin Laden would have helped McCain's chances.

justsomeguy said...

Larry Summers is the right guy for treasury, he is an economic genius. OBama should announce Sebelius and another woman at the same time.

justsomeguy said...

Bush has sure been doing alot in the Pakistani tribal areas, enough the I think he might still be alive. We have done a great job stopping their access to the internet, and stopping their financing, so we have been able to cut off Al Qaeda with modern techniques.

I am just surprised we did not see Bush/Cheney manipulate the strings of government to affect the outcome...like they did with the terror warnings in '04.

justsomeguy said...

Arnold would make a fine energy czar, why do folks hate him? He is a cheap way to bring in a high visibility republican.

Coert said...

Personally, and it's a cynical view, I think Bush never cared much about the Republican party and now that his (and the neo-cons) time is over he simply couldn't be bothered. He got out of them what he wanted.

Coert said...

I don't hate Arnold (though his thick accent grates on me) it's just that you can put biodiesel in a Hummer, it's still a Hummer. While he's done some good things, surely there must be more experienced and learned people on the subject?

justsomeguy said...

No deflation at the grocery store:

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - U.S. food prices will rise by at least 7 percent in 2009 because of higher feed costs for chickens, hogs and cattle, said a group of food-industry economists on Thursday.

It would be the third year in a row that food prices rose faster than the overall U.S. inflation rate. Food inflation is the highest since 1990.

"The sizable increase in the cost of producing food has not been fully passed on to the consumer," said private consultant Bill Lapp. He foresaw food inflation of 7 percent-9 percent in 2009.