This was by far the most common McCain victory scenario, occurring 169 times out of 10,000 simulations this afternoon:
...this would be a boring ol' map. Obama wins everything that either Al Gore or John Kerry won. McCain wins everything else. Problem for McCain: this becomes a losing map if he loses Colorado, and -- although I think Sean's maybe a little too quick to call the state for the blue team -- Obama's lead in early voting there will make things tough for McCain.
The four scenarios that follow were the next most common, occurring about 40 times each:
...this is the scenario that Democrats are terrified about, losing Pennsylvania while winning Colorado and Virginia (which leaves them stuck at 268 electoral votes), but it occurred far less frequently than the 2004-style map that we discussed above.
Then we get some variations on a theme, involving McCain winning some combination of these states (CO/VA/PA), plus occasionally also New Hampshire:
Also, there are some states that truly do appear to be "must-wins" for McCain. In each and every one of the 624 victory scenarios that the simulation found for him this afternoon, McCain won Florida, Georgia, Missouri, Indiana and Montana. He also picked up Ohio in 621 out of the 624 simulations, and North Carolina in 622 out of 624. If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over.
(h/t 411mania.com)
11.02.2008
What A McCain Win Looks Like...
@ 6:13 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
188 comments
Awesome
Healthy lead for Obama in NV... that should help avoid many of those scenarios.
Polls open in Pennsylvania in 36 hours and 40 minutes...
Third
So basically Mccain was somewhat right to target pensilvania
There's no way Obama is going to lose his leads in VA or CO. Thanks for your hard work Nate.
Nate,
The plural of scenario is scenari.
,dave
I'm sleeping well tonight. And tomorrow night, then for the next four years.
Do we need at least 7% to over take ROVE chips voting machines?
He'll lose North Carolina. And, still. Awesome.
WV: devat. Devat is where you throw the goose that is cooked.
These are going to be the longest 48 hours of my life.
radelot: as in, I've read 538 a lot.
So Mcain can win, well, almost never.
THE greatest living conservative mine, George Will, gave Obama a landslide this morning.
Why do I feel a case of "concern-trollism" coming on? WHY...WHY!!!
verification--cocalis, John McCain is cocalis in the fact that he can't win PA.
Thanks Nate, I was just wondering about this very question this morning, what the scenario was for McSame to win based on the low percentages you assigned him.
Check your email, I sent you some pics of the Republican HQ for Hurst TX, right in the midcities DFW area. It is EMPTY on Sunday afternoon. I guess the 'Boys are a bigger draw than McSame....
Oh, does this warm my black little heart.
How about the 4 most common Obama maps---just to make me feel good
Don't give up on VA, folks. I've just come in from out in King George County and Caroline County in Virginia and I easily saw as many Obama signs as McCain signs. In 2004 I remember one large Kerry sign. Things really really might be different around here.
Montana and its three mighty electoral votes isn't really a "must win". It's just that McCain almost never loses it, AND he almost never wins, so the intersection of both of those unlikely events is doubly unlikely.
His real "must win" is Florida. Lose that and he's toast.
We're all going to have to go through election detox next week...unless the GOP steals this one.
Do you factor in voter fraud, suppression and bogus voting machines in your calculations?
Melatonin - the key to sleepiung until Obama wins.
wv- feardspi - I fear da spy, do you?
Thanks for doing this. It really helps to have a visual representation of the outcome in advance.
We win VA, we better win VA, I think we win VA before FL and OH.
Nate,
Just a suggestion to please put the number of electoral votes of each state on your maps. Like other websites. I have to go to other websites to do the math. :)
Perfect timing by someone on the last thread (or lousy timing depending on your point of view.)
Check out the results of the AOL survey
http://patriotroom.com/?p=3739
Damn, McCain wins Massachusetts and gets 496 electoral votes. What do you know, those MSM polls really are in the tank for Obama!
Note that all of the examples given can be further subdivided into two (somewhat overlapping classes).
1) McCain wins Pennsylvania.
2) McCain wins Colorado AND Virginia.
It almost feels like the "5 state race" is really a 3 state race.
Dave Barnes said...
Nate,
The plural of scenario is scenari.
,dave
Not in my dictionary. ("Scenari" may be correct in terms of etymology, but my dictionary doesn't even list that as an alternate plural formation.)
It's terrifying just to see those McCain win maps, makes the whole prospect, while mathematically narrow, nonetheless pictureable/imaginable. Thanks a lot Nate, now I have a knot in my stomach....I wish I were more moved by the sheer mathematical preponderances involved here, that my imagination were more formed by numbers than maps like this and memories of the racists I grew up around and my too-recent stunned recollections of the repudiation of pro-Kerry exit polling.
How about this electoral map:
Obama wins Kerry states- New Hampshire and Pennsylvania =
227 electoral votes + New Mexico 5, Iowa 7, Virginia 13, Colorado 9, Nevada 5 = 266
266 + drumroll please... Montana and it's 3 electoral votes = 269.
Championship goes to Obama in a tie.
That would be about the most hilarious way in history to stick to the Pubs.
Just dropped into the Campaign for Change office down the street and made some GOTV calls. Came back and saw those horrid maps. Oh, my eyes!
GOTV will 'prople' us to victory.
EARLY VOTING
How does your modeling address real world actual early voting? It's great to keep playing the devil's advocate, but I would like to see some real analysis of what we all is actually happening with real world numbers rather than theorectical modeling.
Hey Nate --
DNFTCT
Jeez
THE greatest living conservative mine, George Will, gave Obama a landslide this morning.
LOVE the idea of George will as "living conservative mine"— "dig, baby, dig.
Yep...Nevada is his final Pennsylvania failsafe
The Virginia Obama campaign is almost mind-boglingly organized. and 8000 out of stater are arriving in central VA to help get out the vote. People have waited patiently for 6+ hours to vote absentee in person. I predict the turn out will be amazing, the McMain campaign .... not so much.
@mc9cain:
You don't know how much each state is worth by now??
Man, by this point if I see the name of a swing state, even in some totally non-political context, its electoral vote number flashes in front of my eyes like a neon sign.
WV: "gredie". C'mon Obama, let's be "gredie" with that electoral map!
Well that AOL poll changes everything
McCain can't win Pennsylvania.
14 elections in a row, since 1948 PA has been bluer than the rest of the country.
Since 2004, Democrats have gained 500,000+ net advantage overthe Republicans. This is the biggest net gain in any state in the country. There are over 1,000,000 more democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania.
OpenID izcanbejudenow said...
It's terrifying just to see those McCain win maps, makes the whole prospect, while mathematically narrow, nonetheless pictureable/imaginable. Thanks a lot Nate, now I have a knot in my stomach....I wish I were more moved by the sheer mathematical preponderances involved here, that my imagination were more formed by numbers than maps like this and memories of the racists I grew up around and my too-recent stunned recollections of the repudiation of pro-Kerry exit polling.
Hey, Nate's got to keep his traffic up, and panicking us is a good way to keep us coming back. :)
Ok, now you need to publish the most common Obama scenarios, because that map is literally about to give me a coronary.
There is nothing to fear. In the final analysis, this election will coem to down to one single decisive issue, and that will mean a resounding defeat for John Mccain and Sarah Palin.
See why at:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
My favorite clip from the primaries - Olbermann & Scarborough react to McCain's New Hampshire victory speech
http://crooksandliars.com/node/18440
Eric, the most hilarious way to stick it to the pubs would be:
Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV + OH + FL + MO + NC + IN + GA + MT + ND + Omaha + the added fuck you of AZ
The problem with most McCain win scenarios is they have Nevada for him. I don't see that happening. Basically, McCain needs Pennsylvania and one of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada, or,if he loses Pennsylvania, he needs all of Virginia, Colorado and Nevada. I can't see either of those happening. As was pointed out, those scenarios totaled about 2%.
Can you do the same thing for Obama- most common win types?
Also- best/worst case scenarios for each candidate- so map of lowest and most EV's?
80,000 for Obama in Cleveland (artificially limited by how they set up the venue . . .)
3,000 for Palin in Canton (where Obama debuted his closing argument speech) Yeah, she sure draws HUGE crowds, huh?
Note: Virginia
Virginia is a must win for McCain also.
Obama has been leading the polls in Virginia for some time now.
Reality is that McCain must win all the states currently considered "swing" AND he must take some combination of states currently considered Obama states.
That means he must win:
Ohio, Indiana, North Carolina, Florida, Missouri, North Dakota, Montana, and Arizona.
And he must win some combination of:
Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Iowa, and New Hampshire
And Virginia really becomes a must win out of those in order for some combination of 2-3 others to be enough to put him over the top.
The only other scenarios involve him managing to steal solidly Democratic states such as:
Pennsylvania, Minnesota, Wisconsin, or Michigan which just isn't going to happen.
We're looking good but a slim Obama lead is not enough and that is a real possibility for McCain.
We need to send Obama and the incoming Democratic controlled Senate and House to Washington with a resounding mandate.
No one stays home. Everyone votes.
If you need a baseball analogy- your modeling is a little like go modeling the losing team in baseball while the game is in progress, the team is down and we are left with numbers that don't include this information ?
That's... interesting. Kerry + IA + NM + any other state was the most likely scenario for an Obama win a few months ago.
Good to know that McCain only has a 1.69% chance of running the table, if this is what it comes down to.
Will Obama break 90% on Intrade or the Iowa Electronic Markets before voting starts on Tuesday morning in New Hamsphire?
Currently, he's hovering around 89.0 on both.
40 polls in Pennsylvania have show Obama ahead over the last 5 weeks out of guess how many?
40, what do you know.
From 17 different polling organizations.
Anyone want to take me up on the bet. I'll bet PA is bluer than the rest of the country in the '08 election on Tuesday, just like every election for the last 60 years and all of the polling suggests. McCain is desperate. Has been for a couple months now. Pennsylvania is the only blue state he could pretend to play offense and it appear meaningful. It's not.
I McCain actually pulls it off AND there is ANY ambiguity a la Florida-2004, the streets will be filled - the protest won't be as 'polite' as it was in 2000. Such an outcome would be as close to a coup as this country has ever seen - and I for one would be at the barricades.
the reality now is that Obama is a 95% sure thing; I appreciate Nate's ongoing reality check - but given the stakes, we should not let up with donations, volunteering and the fight against "voter suppression". Keep it up my friends: the hour is getting late.
BTW, absolute shitloads of Mc and anti-O ads on today. They sure did concentrate their buys on these last days!!
Thanks Nate for yet more addictive reading.
I'll be glad when Obama wins and I can have my life back.
FWIW I think that this is an exceptional election with an exceptionally gifted candidate in Obama.
Napoleon once overheard someone singing the praises of one of his generals. "Ah yes," he said "but is he lucky?"
Obama strikes me as being not only a great general, but one who also has the art (so far) of being lucky.
McCain's team wanted to fight on security and culture wars. But they've been forced to fight on the economy, the October surprise that no-one anticipated, and Obama's chosen battlefield.
So we may be in for some further surprises on Tuesday night in terms of the combination of states that takes Obama to victory.
That's what I tell myself when I catch myself fretting over this or that poll.
wv gater: a gator that can't spell
@mc9cain
...and if you look to your left, where the percentages for each state are...
Eric - I really don't want a tie. I guarantee you the insanity would just be beginning in such a situation.
It just blows my mind that some people are really thinking they should vote the same way that Dick Cheney is voting.
And what's up with McCain's win % going up? That's making me nauseous! Let's get this thing over. I volunteered for the campaign again today and I'm volunteering on election day (in Virginia.) We're going to win VA.
some of the states i can see obama losing but NH? i dont think so.
dont think NV is going for him either
@Kevin--
No, the second of the 4 does not require VA or CO.....
This site is sooo awesome.
what a great thread. you guys are such scamps
You guys are great.
Again, VA is blue:
We hate campaign nonsense (see 'macaca')
We like pragmatic Democrats (Mark Warner - who will win the Senate race by ~ 30 points; Tim Kaine)
We are *already voting* (I voted last Saturday @ Arlington Courthouse, 1.5 hour wait; yesterday, 3 hour wait according to local news radio station WTOP)
If you still can't get a sense of perspective, go to electoral-vote.com and compare today to 2004.
I'm pretty much signing off until Tuesday PM...if you're really worried, just help to GOTV.
Again, recognizing that "who cares", I like and appreciate Real Joe...and Inkstain :)
fiesses
newsinOH said...
80,000 for Obama in Cleveland (artificially limited by how they set up the venue . . .)
3,000 for Palin in Canton (where Obama debuted his closing argument speech) Yeah, she sure draws HUGE crowds, huh?
newsfromOH,
Nate picks McCain to win Ohio in his prediction here:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
His 347 electoral vote prediction does not include Ohio. Prove him wrong!!!
"...this is the scenario that Democrats are terrified about, losing Pennsylvania while winning Colorado and Virginia (which leaves them stuck at 268 electoral votes)"
wouldnt Kerry+IA+CO+NM+VA-PA = 265 not 268?
Actually- I just realize the modeling is a little bit worse. The losing teams base case players are injured, and thus they are in a losing game with those players.
80,000 at Obama's rally in Cleveland
My moms and all my peeps in Pennsylvania are voting Obama. ...Let's do this thing.
Also, I'm excited that I'm not the only Oliver on this website. Just call me Oliver II, as I'm not the guy who posted before. Obama has the dudes with wussy English names vote totally locked up.
"glygot" = a drunken person who speaks multiple languages.
" If McCain drops any of those states, it's pretty much over."
Meat of the argument ... QED
WV: Andele -- Hurry Up!
longwire brings up a point-
if this election is seen as rigged for mccain i dont think alot of americans are going to be sitting on their sofas griping about it this time.
all the anger is going to hit the streets. i can see alot of senior citizens taking to the streets too.
If Colorado and Nevada are locks for Obama, and I think they are, and if Iowa, Minnesota, and New Hampshire are there, which most folks believe is the case, then McCain needs all of the toss up states, plus Virginia and Pennsylvania, a HUGE task. It essentially means that the biggest targeted ad campaign in political history did not win a single state!
Obama needs to go on one final offensive to put McCain back in his place for good; something like the "he pays not a single penny" line from one of the debates. The Obama campaign right now looks a bit like Al Gore's team the night and first few days after the election right now - passive and hesitant, not wanting to step on anyone's feet. Don't give McCain any high ground.
If Obama doesn't win PA, chances are that he won't win any of the other red states that would put him over the top (FL, OH, VA, MO, NC, etc), and the "western scenarios" of 269 or 270 electoral votes is needlessly risky.
A strong Obama presence these last couple of days and massive GOTV will go a long way to making sure the Democrats won't throw a victory away for the third consecutive election.
@oliver II:
Not until Oliver North endorses!
Nate, were there any results that gave both VA and PA to Obama with a McCain win? To do it he'd need NV, NM, CO, FL, MO, NH, OH, NC, and any other fringe swing possibilities... but it puts him at 270 and Obama at 268... did this happen never in your simulation?
----
The plural of scenario is scenari.
----
No. Unless common and traditionally used, you use native language (in this case English) rules for plural formation instead of the language from which the word is taken.
For eg. you say Pandits - not Panditaaha (assuming Sanskrit sourcing, not Hindi).
schmanna22 said...
Ok, now you need to publish the most common Obama scenarios, because that map is literally about to give me a coronary.
I see no scenarion whatsoever where McCain wins Nevada if that makes you feel better.
Recent polls show Obama ahead 10 and 12 points. The last two show OBama ahead only 4. Nate's nodel misreads that as incredible momentum. It's virtually impossible for McCain to win there given demographics.
2004 Bush wins Nevada by 20,000.
since 2004 Dems have gained 100,000+ in registration advantage. Early voting is extremely heavy there and overwhelmingly democratic in clark County (Vegas), 70% of the population and washoe county (Reno), 15%. Obama is blowing MCCain away in clark and about even, probably a little ahead in Washoe. The other 15% is heavy McCain territory, but who cares it's 15% and they don't like McCain as much as the like Bush or Romney for that matter. 67.3% of the total vote from 2004 has already voted in Nevada and it's extremely heavy democrat. 52-30% in Vegas, 47-35% in Reno. Nevada is not a state where a lot of Dems vote Pub in the general. Nate's model is off with regards to Nevada. flip Nevada and Obama wins.
Feel a little better?
Here's some more info on how implausible the IBD/TIPP poll appears to be in its internals.
1) They currently have McCain beating Obama among Catholics 51% to 38%. This strikes me as quite out of line with other polls (e.g., Pew). My guess is that IBD is severly underpolling Hispanics, most of whom are Obama leaning Catholics.
2) The results about whether the voter displays (an American?) flag are really bizarre. Given that Obama is outpolling McCain 62% to 31% among those who don't display a flag, vs. a 52% to 39% lead for McCain among those who do display a flag, it follows that about two-thirds of the people polled by IBD/TIPP display a (U.S.) flag. I have no idea how to accurately judge what percent of Americans do display a U.S. flag at their home, but I strongly suspect that no where near 2/3 of Americans fly an American flag at their homes. (In certain geographic areas those numbers would make sense, but not countrywide.) As such, I'm inclined to think that IBD/TIPP is greatly overpolling small town and rural voters, and underpolling urban voters.
Real Time with Bill Maher - Recap of the 2008 Presidential Race
http://uk.youtube.com/watch?v=zUfGYa-CxNg
538 is going to be Xanaxnation tomorrow. Jesus.
What's maddening is that while none of these scenarios is in the least likely, neither are they totally implausible...they're perched just on that critical see-saw space where the ghouls that haunt the liberal subconscious like to hang out.
wv: redat - I'm afraid Nate is redating the bad news from these polls.
how come there is so little talk about how the repubs have the electronic vote machines rigged to swing election to mccain and the talk about the "bradley effect" is the smokescreen they'll use to pull it off?
eric,
I know Cleveland is safely blue. As you know, I'm working the elections in an almost exclusively AA ward (probably 98-99% AA) plus the Bd of Elections has asked me to be one of the people who rides with the sheriff and the ballots so I can guarantee that those ballots are going to be counted and make it in hardcopy back to the Bd.
From what I've heard from Cols and areas around Cincy, O should do better than Kerry in those areas (winning Cols, not falling too far behind in Cincy). Those margins should be enough to carry the state.
The idea that McCain was "correct" in going for PA is really just a fancy way of noting how screwed up the McCain campaign has been. If he had the local grassroots organization, like Obama (Dean's idea too), or had ever found a message that stuck, he wouldn't be in a mathematically improbable situation, where PA is the last gasp. Generally, presidential candidates have a bunch of different ways to get to the White House. McCain essentially has two, and they're longshots. So, the more accurate statement would be that, after completely bungling the entire presidential race, McCain's team correctly identified the one state that could, under once-in-a-lifetime contingencies, swing the election in his favor, if a bunch of other things also happen.
On a side note, my Halloween costume was Obama's winning percentage from 538 as of 10/31's afternoon. It was pretty popular, even with the girl who runs statistics for Indiana's Republican governor.
It looks like it's been noted already in the comments (especially by Kevin and WVBill), in certain terms, but let me add:
If Obama carries both Virginia and Pennsylvania, there is no realistic path to a McCain electoral victory. That is, Obama can lose OH, FL, CO, NV, NM, NC, GA, MO, IN, MT, ND, SD and still win if he carries both PA and VA.
If Obama doesn't win PA, chances are that he won't win any of the other red states that would put him over the top (FL, OH, VA, MO, NC, etc), and the "western scenarios" of 269 or 270 electoral votes is needlessly risky.
To clarify, losing PA would likely indicate a pretty significant shift in voter sentiment that would likely transcend state boundaries, NOT simple polling biases.
"So I don't know about you, but I want my country back, I want my dream back, I want my America back," Springsteen exclaimed to deafening cheers.
From NBC's Domenico Montanaro
Some might be interpreting the latest Mason-Dixon polls as showing weakness for Obama since he has not reached 50%.
It's true that the bad news for Obama in these polls is, as we wrote in First Read, that he hasn't reached 50%. But it should also be pointed out that Obama's position has actually gotten stronger -- when looking at the Mason-Dixon poll trendlines -- particularly in states like Colorado, Nevada and Virginia. In other states, movement has been negligible and within the margin of error.
In Colorado, Obama has gained five percentage points from the previous Mason-Dixon poll, Sept. 29-Oct. 1, when the candidates were tied at 44%. In the latest poll, Obama leads by five, 49%-44%.
In Nevada, Obama has gained 10 points since August, when McCain led by six, 47%-41%, and two points since their Oct. 8-9 poll. In the latest poll, Obama leads 47%-43%.
In Virginia, Obama has gained six percentage points since a Sept. 29-Oct. 1 poll that showed a three-point McCain lead, 48%-45%. In the latest poll, it's Obama who leads by three, 47%-44%.
John said...
Eric, the most hilarious way to stick it to the pubs would be:
Kerry + IA + NM + CO + VA + NV + OH + FL + MO + NC + IN + GA + MT + ND + Omaha + the added fuck you of AZ
you totally left off Mississipi, West Virginia, Alaska, Louisiana, and Texas while you're at it. Hook 'em
newsinOH said...
80,000 for Obama in Cleveland (artificially limited by how they set up the venue . . .)
3,000 for Palin in Canton (where Obama debuted his closing argument speech) Yeah, she sure draws HUGE crowds, huh?
+++++++++++
and didnt they counter the Boss concert with the lady that sings "redneck woman" at palins rally....thought I read that as they made that something of a big deal....
After weeks of 538's projections for Obama always exceeding the polling average for the swing states, it's weird to look at those numbers and see the projection spitting out numbers a few points below his average!
That's a combination of the new sensitivity to recent events and some tighter polls yesterday and today for you.
If polls bounce up a couple points for Obama tomorrow, 538's going to have him at 99%.
Nate and Sean--
I want to thank each of you for all your hard work this political season. This website is just like BP - highly informative and highly addictive. I hope you two each continue this site for years and elections to come.
And these pretty pictures are nice.
Dan
Hmmm, lessee.
Analysis boils down to:
F G I O Miz Mo NC
Okay, I don't blame him, but McCain is tired. He's having trouble completing sentences right now in NH. The crowd is looking at him like I don't get it, why i'm here?
Seeing the model's inner workings is interesting, but I feel it needs some "reprogramming" to deal with the data available about early voting.
Clearly the McCain team do not think that the "most likely" route to victory (according to the model) is in fact the most likely, as they have been devoting far more resources to trying to pick off PA than holding the line in NV, VA, CO. And I think they are being rational in this regard, because of early voting, which has locked in a substantial, probably decisive lead in NV and CO and a significant lead in NC and FL, too.
Surely this is a factor, on top of opinion polling, which you should be trying to incorporate into the model? Personally I think McCain now has more of a shot at PA than CO or NV, because of the absence/presence of early voting. And his campaign's actions would seem to suggest that they agree with me. Your model, however, does not.
Last.
In all honesty, if I was a McCain supporter and watched the news, saw the predictions and had to go sit in line for hours, I wouldn't bother to vote.
My dad is a DIE HARD Republican who HATES Obama, but we live in WA State and he's not gonna bother to vote because our state is going to Obama, he doesn't see the point of waiting in line when McCain is going to lose the state and most likely this election.
Just a little inside info to think about...
Is Oliver North still alive? Was Oliver (I) taunted in grade school for having a wussy name the way that I was?
These are the things that I want to know.
"ceramess" = an untidy sculptor.
This whole word verification thing reminds me of... you know what... "Sniglets." And to a lesser extent, "Son of Sniglet." ...Ahh, Sniglets... good times.
The kind of schedule that McCain has had to keep must play hell on a 70+ body.
new thread
I know this makes me a concern troll, but when I saw the McCain "win" maps, I was forced to open a bottle of wine to drink away the tension. Talk me down.
DISTANTCOUNSIN
I've been asking this same question several posts now. No one is willing to discuss actual voting here it seems outside of wingnuts trying to spin the early vote results. I would love to know how the model is addressing early voting. So would several others who have asked the same questions as you and I asked. I am starting to think maybe there is no way to address it.
I want to second Nam Vet Joe's call for Obama maps like the McCain maps in this post.
I also want to say that I just realized that I hope that Nate is wrong. I mean, as much as I want him to be proven a wizard of polling and numbering, what I am really hoping for is that Obama's ground machine stomps and grinds the numbers into the dirt on their way to a historical landslide.
I would love to read a post from Nate that was titled, "So what I got wrong in my model was this ..." He could then explain why Obama got 450 EV ;)
WV: attle. Obama is gonna be singing the Attle Hymn of the Republic come the 5th of November.
The RNC is going up now the the Obama adio statement that he will bankrupt the coal industry. McCain will pick up Virginia, PA, NC. Small mistakes lose elections. I think the 120k workers in the coal industry will never vote Obama.
Well then, it looks like McCain is down to 2 scenarios, because he's NOT going to win NC.
Sorry. Not going to happen.
"I McCain actually pulls it off AND there is ANY ambiguity a la Florida-2004, the streets will be filled - the protest won't be as 'polite' as it was in 2000. Such an outcome would be as close to a coup as this country has ever seen - and I for one would be at the barricades."
I don't understand the rationale of this post. If there's no ambiguity, then McCain has simply won the majority of the EV (and most likely also PV). What's then to protest for someone who believes in the principle of democracy?
Is Oliver North still alive?
There was a horrific bombing in Afghanistan that killed over a hundred children. The pentagon originally said it was all a lie. They had someone on the ground that said it was bullshit.
Cellphone video footage came out that showed a slaughter and scores of dead toddlers. It turned out that the original pentagon source was none other than Oliver North, in the service of Fox News. He's still serving as a murderous tool to this day.
Since when has Mason-Dixon ever had Obama over 50% in ANY battleground? That's why I don't trust them. Any pollster the FReeptards consistently cling to is a bit suspect. They're the IBD/TIPP of state polling.
Not to be outdone, the Republican National Committee rolled out battleground phone calls that include Hillary Rodham Clinton's criticism of Obama during the Democratic primary. She is heard saying: "In the White House, there is no time for speeches and on-the-job training. Sen. McCain will bring a lifetime of experience to the campaign, and Sen. Obama will bring a speech that he gave in 2002."
I been heavily focused on the election for a long time. I know I'm biased, but I can be objective. bottomline, I'll take the sppech in 2002. McCain has never done anything to warrant thinking he's extra prepared. Crashed 7 planes and finished almost last in hids class on the way to crashing the last plane in Vietnam where he was a POW for 5 1/2 yrs. Is that great preparation for anything? Experts say the surge has nothing to do with our success in Iraq. The success is derived from the Suni awakening. McCain can't keep the different groups of Iraqis straight in his head and was gung-ho about going into Baghdad which was always a stupid idea from the get go. Can somebody who is voting for McCain please explain to me what he's ever proven or done to garner confidence. I have no idea!
Zogby is out with their single night polling with McCain+2 nationally.
Dkos is having a fit as they don't want to report that their numbers in polling have the race tied.
That AOL poll is unsettling. But to assuage any fears, I just took a straw poll of my closest friends and the results were Obama gets 100% of the popular vote. Since both polls are roughly as scientific, I think it's safe to say that the truth is probably somewhere in the middle: Obama gets 75% of the popular vote and 538 EV's.
I have no idea why you have McCain as a slight favorite in Florida in your analysis on the right column when Obama has won or tied all the recent polls and your regression analysis shows Obama as well. It looks like you picked McCain (as being a slight favorite) out of the air when it should show Obama by 2.
This doesn't look very scientific. ?
By the way, when McCain wins by suspicious means, Bush will order all protesters to be shot down like dogs, (with buckshot of course) it still hurts badly.
There will be no mercy. The USA will be made safe by any means necessary. We will not allow insurgents destroy the country.
Jack-be-nimble said...
Zogby is out with their single night polling with McCain+2 nationally.
Dkos is having a fit as they don't want to report that their numbers in polling have the race tied.
--------
Lying is as easy as breathing for you, isn't it?
There is a national security directive that will allow Bush to retain the presidency for a temporary period so that peace can be restored.
That temporary period will allow Bush to name and replace three Supreme court justices without senate concurrence.
@Chad
One fewer vote for Rossi? Sounds good to me!
(Don't tell your dad I said that!)
WV: eurigo: the feeling I get when I visit Europe and realize just how far behind the curve we are over here.
Not only can I not wait to vote (I'll be skipping all the way there), but I'll be happy to:
-Never see or hear of Joe the Dumb Plumber again
-Not see Lieberman's creepy ass smile lurking from over McCain's shoulder
-See Sarah Palin exported back to the frozen tundra
-Not hear the words: "fundamental" and "my friends"
But most importantly: saying President Barack Hussein Obama!
Woot! Go team.
wv: McCain, Palin and Leiberman can snovet up their asses.
I hope this is some sock puppet JBN, because if you think you are serious we'll start killing you. I'm not kidding.
"-Never see or hear of Joe the Dumb Plumber again"
He's now questioning Obama's "loyalty to America".
http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/242050.php
Time for John McCain to step in and grab the mike once more, ain't it?
Nate, your #2 scenario comes to 273-265, not 270-268 as you say. At least by my calculations.
Reich-wingers are predicting…yes…get ready…a McCain landslide!!!
http://patriotroom.com/?p=3739
I agree that the scenario the Dems fear most would leave Obama on 265 EVs, not 268.
I don't know whether there are any likely scenarios that leave either candidate on 268 EVs.
34 hours, 40 minutes until first polls open.
22 hours, 40 minutes until first polls close.
18 hours until winner is declared - (probable).
Wow you've gotten popular, Nate!
Are you going to post your election prediction? You were pretty right-on during most of the primaries.
By the way, Alaskans are being encouraged to vote for Stevens. He will step down after the election and Palin will be appointed by herself.
Nice way to stay in Washington is McPalin lose this time. She would win any election for the state.
34 hours, 40 minutes until first polls open.
22 hours, 40 minutes until first polls close.
18 hours until winner is declared - (probable).
huh??? Your ummm.... math is off.
@oliver II:
Yes, North is still alive, and in grade school I mostly just heard a million Charles Dickens references. And if I was really unlucky, that song.
I got my hours mixed up there. It's gettin' late here in Moscow.
Hours until first polls open - 34 hours, 40 mins.
Hours until first polls close - 46 hours, 40 mins.
Hours until winner is declared - 51 hours
Thanks for talking me down off the ledge.
---"The RNC is going up now the the Obama adio statement that he will bankrupt the coal industry. McCain will pick up Virginia, PA, NC. Small mistakes lose elections. I think the 120k workers in the coal industry will never vote Obama."
If you build a new polluting coal plants, kind of like the ones they had to shut down in China for the Olympics, to make the air breathable for the Olympics you will be fined ynder Cap and trade. Guess what mental midget McCain also supports cap and trade.
You really are ignorant. Oops, I forgot ignorance is required to be a RepubliCon.
For everyone asking; top five Obama EV results are on the map:
311: Kerry + NV, CO, NM, IA, OH, VA
353: The above, w/FL + NC
326: 353 - FL
364: 353 + either MO or IN (MO seems more likely)
375: 353 + both MO and IN
RCP, among other sites, has a nice customizable map, so you can see how they look. 353's my guess, for right now, though I'd love to see MO (and especially IN; I live in Bloomington) turn blue.
Thanks, Nate, for making a math geek happy.
Here in Montgomery County, PA, I'm not sleeping, I'm not eating. I'm done with my Letters to the Editor and I've done my phone bank calling. I've got carpal tunnel from all the internet surfing. CNN plays constantly on one TV; MSNBC on the other.
Is it Tuesday yet??????
My daughter comes home from school (in NY) tomorrow night and we're headed to the polls, with 2 of her friends at 7 am on Tuesday.
{Breathe, Breathe}
This site helps, but boy did those scenarios freak me out. PA in red is just....
I'm so worried....
The level of uncertainty seems amazingly high: 6% chance of McCain winning, but 22% chance of Obama landslide? That is, the chance that Obama's electoral votes lie in the huge range 270-374 is only 72% or so?
In your anxiety, you're making far too much of an Obama advantage from early voting. There is no advantage to Obama in this.
If the election shifts, it will be because undecided voters go to McCain. But the voters who have voted early include none of the undecided - why would an undecided voter vote early?
So the voters who will decide the election haven't voted yet. And the voters who have voted won't decide the election.
I hope Obama wins too, but don't give in to wishful thinking Nate. This has been a scientific site and it's been great, keep it that way to the end.
McCain is not for cap and trade you idiot. He may say he is for it, just like global warming crap. But I have to admit that he is lying his ass off and really doesn't believe global warming is man made.
I hope your model does not consider each state's outcome an independent event. If McCain takes PA, it's more than likely that he will also take many, many of the other swing states. The outcome of each state is very dependent on the other ones.
The plural of scenario is scenari.
If this were an Italian election blog, yes. But in English, the plural of scenario is scenarios.
No, really, right here:
http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/scenario
I made a little VOTE video :-)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uxlZJOWSGJc
reelgeist wrote:
but I would like to see some real analysis of what we all is actually happening with real world numbers rather than theoretical modelling.
How do presume that is possible?
The votes aren't counted until Nov. 4. - even the early votes.
We would all like to have "real world numbers", but there is nothing out there but numbers of early voters and data on their political affiliations (in some states). You are, in essence, asking Nate to give you the results in advance. Not surprisingly, he can't.
And for those who keep asking about if the model accounts for voter fraud, or rigged machines - how in the hell could it? If one could anticipate fraud and quantify it, then it would be prevented.
The advantage of early voting is that the Obama campaign can get unlikely or sporadic voters to the polls and get them to vote. This adds to Obama's margins by increasing the total pool of votes even if it doesn't affect the undecideds.
Nate, not sure if you have time to read comments, or implement it. But could we get a pair of maps showing the "must-win" percentages in each state, for each candidate?
I find it incredible that so many people are worried about Pennsylvania. I mean, Reagan in '84 could only win the state by 7%, and that was the biggest landslide for decades.
Wolf of Aquarius wrote:
The advantage of early voting is that the Obama campaign can get unlikely or sporadic voters to the polls and get them to vote. This adds to Obama's margins by increasing the total pool of votes even if it doesn't affect the undecideds.
Also, that every early voter is one less in line on Nov. 4th. And those are voters who cannot be turned away at the polls due to sleazy tactics. Last, every early voter is one less that the Obama GOTV effort has to worry about.
I curse the people who live in those losing alternative futures. May their quantum paths become increasingly improbable.
The New Rasmussen has O + 6 in PA
I think the margin will be about _ 4 in PA. All the racists are coming home to McCain, but O will still pull out the victory.
52O-48M
Which means that McCain will have to win EVERY other state in order to win because Kerry+Gore = 264 (I believe)
folks think Obama got this on lock. dont sleep all mccain has to to is stay white
and its like Dewy revisited
USA Today Numbers:
O 53
M 42
Obama's biggest lead
TODD
RE EARLY VOTE
We already know , just to give an example, that the early turnout in NC for AAs is so high several models for likely voters are almost certainly going to be wrong. That's one example of real world pre-Nov 4th reality checking that I would love to see Nate tackle. As I also mentioned about NC we also know that apparently 100,000 new voters (I believe thats correct) voted in the early voting than were registered previous to the early voting. Those are almost certainly new Obama voters because McCain has no ground game in NC, Obama has a huge one, the partisan breakdown of early voters, and quite frankly the breakdown of early voting in 2004 compared to 2008 (in 2004 - early voting accounted for 900k of the votes resulting in bush leading early, but in 2008 it has been 2.6 million-- again of which 100k apparently according to the NC State official voting data registered only during the early vote). When going into McCain's scenarios to win- any thing that doesn't look at whether voting models for Likely Voters are off due to what we already know (40 percent of the vote being in- and that's assuming a heavy turnout of 70 percent in NC and even greater percentage if the turnout is less than 70 percent).
Chris Bowers probably overstated his point, but he already discussed this over at OpenLeft. He discussed the early returns of both CO and NM. They are a huge portion of the votes. We already know from minor but non conclusive polling that Obama is leading significantly in a lot of the early vote (again Bush beat both Kerry and Gore in early voting).
These things alone should be putting astericks next to some polls about whether they are reflecting the situation accurately or not.
I know Nate did well with the primaries, but the GE differs in a significant way from the GE--somewhere around 10 to 30 percent of the electorate will have voted before Nov 4, and the question is whether polling data reflects the locked in votes or not? If they don't then we may be under or over estimating polling data.
Above right now, ironically Nate is once again talking about cell numbers. I find this ironic given again the numbers of already voted will affect at least 10 to 30 percent of the outcome. Let's say Obama is ahead by 10 percent. That means McCain must overcome that 10 percent deficit in the remain 70 percent of voting in order to win.
This is why I keep asking hima bout whether his modeling takes early voting into consideration.
I want to test Chris Bowers theory, and more than that, see if there is a way to start to understand the polling data- ie, which model is closest to where the electorate is.
Are you aware of the robo-calls full of lies and the lies palin and mccain have been spewing today in PA and Ohio...in all the battleground states?
If the voters stay smart Obama will win but if they get stupid and fall for this ploy as they have in the past...I'm worried....it might get tight...too tight.
Please God...
Chris Matthews just ran the Rev. Wright ad on his show. Unbelievable!
or shorter version of my post- he can sure as hell tell whether MDs model is correct for using 2004 turnout when we already know that early 2008 voting turnout isn't anything like or close to 2004 for a sizeable portion of the voting populations in NC, NV, GA to name just 3. Any modeling that discuss the fact that the game is already in progress is suspect to me. Its incomplete in its analysis and at the very least should point that out if the scenarios is figuring out whether McCain has a shot. I like this site a lot. I am just pointing out a flaw a friend of mind discuss with me this summer about wave year elections and the problem with polling.
@pmet
Are those USA Today numbers a new high for BHO?
wv: patedr -- Dan Quayle's singular form of potato.
NOLA58 "Are those USA Today numbers a new high for BHO?"
Chris Matthews made a point of saying "Write these numbers down" because this is the "biggest" lead Obama has had in the USA Today/Gallup daily tracking poll. He is closing strong!
Obama wins FL when losing OH... 5.53%
This estimate seems WAY off.
chrish60, It's okay, I'm very happy to let John McCain be President of AOL. Really, it's all good.
I think I'll sleep in front of my polling spot so I can get this over ASAP.
Nevada's going red over my cold dead democratic body!!
The pollsters have a pretty good idea of who the early votes have been going to: they do ask respondents if they voted already and if so, who they voted for.
Do any of these polls include the third party candidates (not that any of them have been making any headway.)
What a McCAIN LOSS looks like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
What a McCAIN LOSS looks like:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY
Just can't see McCaint winning both PA and VA. Can't see Obama losing them either. Dole's "godless" ads against Hagen in NC-Sen aren't gonna help either, and have backfired to where I think Obama can pull out NC. I will be disappointed if he loses NC (where I now live) but the BHO campaign is very active here, and early voting and black voting, on top of usual GOTV efforts, may tip it to BHO, in which case, game over. We might at least know some trends by about 10:30 ET Tuesday.
I think this is along the lines of return on investment and tipping point. PA may not be a likely win for McCain, but a necessary one.
Speaking of ROI, I'm not sure your model deals well with early voting. If Colorado is over already, there is no return on further investments there. Likewise, do your probability models on electoral vote deal well with early voting when establishing the lead in a state?
Based on the information you have put on this website, Colorado and Nevada, based on early voting, look to be much stronger Obama than simply the projected percentages.
Modeling early voting sounds hard to me, if the polls asked the question of whether the subject has voted or not. Given the magnitude of early voters, there should easily be enough to see if McCain's claim that early voters are draining the pool of Obama supporters.
In my gut, I think he's right, but I don't think it will change the outcome significantly.
from a friend who has traveled to be on the ground in Scranton PA these last 4 days:
------------------------------------------
Obama Scranton HQ was overwhelmed with volunteers yesterday (Saturday), so much so this normally super efficient operation almost broke down dealing with the unexpected high numbers. This seems to be happening all over the state.
Senator Casey told us today at a meeting in Scranton that volunteers throughout the state had knocked on 780,000 doors on Saturday! Today I saw a group of people leaving the McCain rally, very young men, boys really, probably not old enough to vote, all white. At the Caroline Kennedy/Senator Bob Casey rally across town several hundred people, incredibly diverse, age, race, gender. We are batlling here for the soul of the country, for the votes of these good white working class folks who have been so screwed by Bush and the Republicans and know it.
The only thing that could prevent them from pulling the lever for Barack Obama on November 4th is the race of his father. Let's face it, this is what this election has always been about. What we can do is not only vote on Nov 4 but get involved in the battle of swing states either by phone banking www.barackobama.com or being there in person!
Best,
Alan Howard
-------------------
GO VOTE!!!!!! The future of our country depends on you.
----
The plural of scenario is scenari.
----
No. Unless common and traditionally used, you use native language (in this case English) rules for plural formation instead of the language from which the word is taken.
For eg. you say Pandits - not Panditaaha (assuming Sanskrit sourcing, not Hindi).
HAHAHA...
Grammar Nazis types are amusing.
Mainly because they are so often wrong.
Judge not les'in ya wanna b'jouj'd, as the old humanist Thomas Starkey might say, although probably not.
Somebody talk me down from this late evening paranoia:
Mc takes MT, ND, AZ, MO, GA, NC, IN. And then, Obama's recently surfaced anti-coal comments (which are all over the blogs and even on CNN now, Palin is hitting him on it, some coal industry commissioner in OH is all over it, etc.) combined with the recently upped Rev W adds by the PA RNC kill Obama in OH and PA -- so Mc also takes OH and PA. Then, throw VA into the Mc column due to the coal comments and the O's Appalachia problem. Which brings it down to Florida. Enter the recent Khalidi smears and Florida is tighter than ever. So, it again comes down to FL. How confident does O feel about FL? Talk me down people, talk me down. . . .
I think it's a misnomer to count out PA simply because it consistently turns out 'more blue' than the rest of the country every election. You do realize the McCain road to victory in PA is all about converting democrats. And not just democrats -- the Reagan democrats, AKA Clinton democrats. The one intangible factor that polls cannot accommodate is the PUMA vote. I'm not saying McCain will will PA, but to think it is going to fall right in to Obama's lap is a tragic mistake and you may be grabbing for an oxygen mask come Tuesday night when it isn't called because it is too close.
You can assume all day that Hillary's supporters will fall right into their place come Nov 4th, but I'm not so blind. If McCain wins PA, it's over.
VA is not going to McCain. The blue areas of VA are Northern VA and Richmond and Charlottesville, with pinking lowering the deficits in other parts of the state. Huge numbers of volunteers on the ground in VA.
It's been said before, but it's worth repeating: participating in the Obama GOTV campaign helps ease the worry! I spent several hours in NoVA yesterday knocking on doors and 4 hours today in MD making calls to IN and NV. We can do this, guys! The Omama ground campaign is truly inspiring. I feel honored to be a part of it.
Pundit's Predict Winner
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/election-predictions-pund_n_140149.html
LINK
Those of you who say that if McCain takes PA (which he won't) it means that Obama will be taking a bit hit in other states as well are omitting something. McCain is throwing the vast majority of his eggs into the PA basket. If he could have afforded to make that kind of effort in other battleground states then maybe it might have made a difference, but the money that's being wasted in PA is money that isn't going to VA, NC, OH or other such states. He will thus do realtively better in PA than its partisan make-up would indicate. It will not be due primarily to racism but to the money and the effort.
The reason he's doing it, I believe, is that if he didn't pick one Blue state to go after people would realize he's conceded defeat and Republican turnout will be depressed even further than it already is.
wv=orsen
Welles,Welles, Welles, what have we here?
Will you run for rep orsen?
You just inspired me to send the following email to my friends:
Here are the must win states for McCain:
Florida
Georgia
Missouri
Indiana
Montana
In the 624 simulations where he wins (out of 10,000) on www.fivethirtyeight.com, he has to win all five of those states to do so.
He also wins
Ohio
North Carolina
621 and 622 times respectively. All a long way of saying, McCain currently has about a 6.3% chance of winning according to one of baseball's greatest statisticians, and he carries each of the above states in virtually all of these win scenarios.
So, I propose a night where each of us comes as a state. To come as a state, you wear colors of that team's most famous college or sports team. You also bring $20 to enter. All the money goes in the pool. Any state that goes for McCain has to pay an additional $20 in. The state that gets called first by FOX for Obama (effectively ending of election) takes the entire pool at the moment that state gets called. States which go for McCain AFTER also pay the winner.
I will provide Zacapa rum and diets all night, making your $20 entry fee worthwhile and $40 is your max outlay. Also: I am not taking any margin. All the entry fees go to the winner.
I am coming as Georgia, because I'm becoming a Dawgs fan and I'm going to wear my Capertons, not because I've done any analysis here. The rest are up for grabs. The evening closes when I have six more responses. RSVP to me only with your ranking of states, I will then allocate based on when I get the responses. I have to close this at seven people as my place is not big enough to accommodate more.
I will also provide cigars in a win scenario for the Obamians and Obamacons. Plane tickets for Vancouver, where I am moving myself, will be available for purchase at end of night in the event of a loss scenario.
I have invited 12 for 6 spots figuring 50% hit rate - sorry if I overdid it and there is more interest. Assuming I may have underdone it depending on plans, I will add to the invites to fill out the remaining states manana.
Event starts at 6pm with pre-game hype. All participating states have to arrive no later than 7pm.
dilemma: not wanting to miss too much of the street party on MLK in PDX
solution: provide VA toggle in scenario analysis
Obama loses VA, wins election
McCain loses VA, wins election
Obama wins VA, wins election
McCain wins VA, wins election
by 8PM ET (or whenever FOX calls VA), I would like to know my odds of having to come home possibly inebriated should McCain make a late push
So then, is it safe to assume we'll know the winner of the election by 7pm EST when the first polls close? I believe Indiana is the first of the battlegrounds to close... then Florida I believe is an hour later.
There's been some general talk about early voting but there doesn't seem to have been much discussion at the state level.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
North Carolina
72.5% of the 2004 total votes for NC has voted early in 2008
Dems 51.5% Reps 30.1% Oth 18.4%
- a 20+ point lead for Obama with a heck of a lot of the votes cast.
Nationally, the Dems seem to support Obama better than the Reps support McCain so that stated lead presumes that loyalty.
Nevada isn't quite as strong as NC but looks strong. 67% of 2004 vote have voted in 2008. If one splits the independent vote and allows two thirds for McCain in the rural areas, Obama has a 13 point lead.
I'm no expert here but that looks like a staggering Obama advantage for McCain to overcome in Nevada and North Carolina. Even if the final vote doubles the early voting, McCain has a lot of ground to make up.
In all the above scenarios presented by Nate, they have McCain winning both Nevada and North Carolina. Maybe it's just me, but beyond the polls, when one looks at the early voting, giving both those states to McCain looks like a heck of an assumption.
Dumb question: if you ran 10,000 scenarios today and McCain won in 624 of them, why doesn't that mean he has a 6.24 percent chance of winning the election?
I believe a country where Mccain wins should have more red in it. To illustrate the blood spilling over into the steets from the proverbial finnancial massacre.
Watching this site and reading all of the comments is great fun, but what it all comes down to is whether polls accurately reflect real voting.
At best, polls are just a sampling of the people who are home when called, who actually answer the phone, who are willing to talk to the pollster and who tell the truth about who they plan to vote for.
I'm also a bit skeptical about the assumptions on the early voting, that just because the majority of early voters are registered Democrats, then the majority of the votes already cast must be for Obama. I'm a registered Republican and I voted already for Obama, but everybody would assume that my vote went to McCain.
I'm cautiously optimistic that Senator Obama will win, but won't feel comfortable at all until the results start coming in and they match the polling.
desmoinesdem -- not necessarily a dumb question, but not one I can answer succinctly. It just doesn't :)
I was in NW Indiana this weekend and talked to my in-laws who were from the other side of the state. I know Obama runs better in NW Indiana than the rest of the state, but based on what I saw on the ground and heard from my relatives, I will be really surprised if McCain can pull it off. I really believe the pollsters are still missing a bunch of folks (no offense)
Thanks for this post though. It's really a great way to succinctly (there's that word again) explain things that I was trying to guess at last night, so I can totally just send my partners and friends to read your hard work.
Mike: I think you're right about Indiana. I'm in Indianapolis, and went to vote early yesterday. I stood in line for nearly three hours, and from what I heard line times of 2-3 hours had been common all day, with lines of about half that (1-1 1/2) hours common the rest of the week previous. And probably 80% or more of those people were minority or other "unlikely" voters. Quite a number of first-time voters, too. (The people at the tables cheered every time they got a new voter.)
We're a traditional Republican state, yes, but the population is concentrated mostly in Indy and NW Indiana (where my relatives reported early-voting lines of up to 4 hours at one poll location last week.) There have been huge numbers of early voting--the Star reported 286,000 statewide as early as a week ago-- and honestly? I don't think all that many of them are voting for McCain.
Based on these scenarios and poll closing times, can someone post a timetable for when I most likely can go to bed tomorrow without having nightmares about President Palin?
demoinesdem - because some scenarios are more equal than others.
Bonus - verification word is "zoodem" - like Animal Farm only weirder.
So here is my question- what is the earliest called state that means Obama won? For example, if he takes VA, NC and looses PA- does that mean McCain can't win anymore?
I know you can't guarantee until all votes are counted, but CA and HI are going blue- I don't need to wait until 2 am to know that.
Also, what is your odds on pick for which state is going to screw up the election and not have a number ready on election night?
I've ran tons of simulations and each one shows Obama winning.
Obama should win with at least 286 Electoral Votes.
we can't make assumptions quite yet... it'll all shake out this evening.
Funny that McCain acknowledged the alien endorsement - haha
http://embeds.blogs.foxnews.com/2008/11/03/mccain-touts-alien-endorsement/
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套,G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,生日精品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票號碼,夜市,統一發票對獎,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解,av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情, 股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上掃毒,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,火車,房屋,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套, G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,精品,禮品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票,夜市,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解, av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av ,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情,股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上a片,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,借錢,房屋,街頭籃球,找工作,旅行社,六合彩,婚友,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友,交友,交友,婚友社,婚友社,婚友社,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,越南新娘,外籍新娘,外籍新娘,台中坐月子中心,搬家公司,搬家公司,中和搬家,台北搬家,板橋搬家,新店搬家,線上客服,網頁設計,線上客服,網頁設計,植牙,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,交友,越南新娘,婚友社,外籍新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,交友,外籍新娘,視訊聊天,大陸新娘,婚友社,婚友,越南新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,視訊交友,外籍新娘,網路排名,網路排名軟體,網站排名優化大師,關鍵字排名大師,網站排名seo大師,關鍵字行銷專家,關鍵字,seo,關鍵字行銷,網頁排序,網頁排名,關鍵字大師,seo大,自然排名,網站排序,網路行銷創業,汽車借款,汽車借錢,汽車貸款,汽車貸款,拉皮,抽脂,近視雷射,隆乳,隆鼻,變性,雙眼皮,眼袋,牙齒,下巴,植牙,人工植牙,植髮,雷射美容,膠原蛋白,皮膚科,醫學美容,玻尿酸,肉毒桿菌,微晶瓷,電波拉皮,脈衝光,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,英語演講,托福,Toastmaster,
徵信社, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 外遇沖開, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信
徵信, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信,徵信網, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵, 徵信公司, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵, 徵
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,美髮儀器,美髮,儀器,髮型,EMBA,MBA,學位,EMBA,專業認證,認證課程,博士學位,DBA,PHD,在職進修,碩士學位,推廣教育,DBA,進修課程,碩士學位,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,課程介紹,學分班,文憑,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,日式料理, 台北居酒屋,日本料理,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,台北結婚,場地,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,造型系列,學位,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,SEO,婚宴,捷運,學區,美髮,儀器,髮型,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,房子,捷運,學區,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,學位,碩士學位,進修,在職進修, 課程,教育,學位,證照,mba,文憑,學分班,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,場地,結婚,場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,場地,居酒屋,燒烤,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,小套房,小套房,進修,在職進修,留學,證照,MBA,EMBA,留學,MBA,EMBA,留學,進修,在職進修,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,关键词排名,网络营销,網路行銷,關鍵字排名,关键词排名,网络营销,PMP,在職專班,研究所在職專班,碩士在職專班,PMP,證照,在職專班,研究所在職專班,碩士在職專班,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,EMBA,MBA,PMP
,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,EMBA,MBA,PMP
,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,EMBA,MBA,PMP
,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,婚宴,婚宴,婚宴,婚宴
住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,住宿,民宿,飯店,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林,林志玲,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林,林志玲,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林
キャッシング
網頁設計
クレジットカード 現金化
ダンボール
留学
水 通販
ウィークリーマンション
障害者
有料老人ホーム
看板 製作
レーザー脱毛
フランチャイズ
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
The survey found that consumer 3G wholesale china from the crowd of view, the buyer 25 to 40 years old mainly white-collar workers, accounting for about 40%, followed by consumer groups of students, accounting for about three into. According to statistics, 3G wholesale products in sales, compared with a 2G mobile phone sales are still a wide gap between, but since June has been, 3G mobile phones increase in the average monthly buy products for more than 50%, "11" period due to holiday business, the increase of more than 150%. Pk that the "11" after the peak sales of 3G handsets likely to usher in more stable growth.
From cell phones users to see the specific situation of occupational segmentation in 2009, accounting for 19.5% of students dropped 21.2 percent over last year, other types of occupations than those last year, the proportion of Internet users cheap cell phones increase. White collar crowd from last year's 29.2% increase to 38.9% this year, accounting for 9.7 percentage points up to replace the student groups cellphone users as one of the biggest occupational hierarchy; blue-collar crowd from last year's 13.9% to 18.9% this year, accounting for rose by 5.0 percentage points, showing that mobile phones users by a group of students to the occupational groups a significant trend in the development. Ereli advice that, cheap cell phones and mobile phone users Internet users monthly income distribution of age, education, occupational distribution has strong correlation with high spending capacity of white-collar workers and some students in the crowd will be a huge cell phone china online potential consumer groups.
By comparing the traditional Internet users, Internet users to iResearch found that the traditional white-collar-based, cell phones wholesale, corporate general staff accounted for 18.9%, higher than the 5.6% of the wholesale cell phones users accounting; and discount cell phones users in the years students and blue-collar workers accounted for significantly more than the traditional Internet users, respectively, accounting for 19.5% and 18.9%, higher than the traditional Internet users Students and blue-collar workers accounted for 7.8% and 5.1% respectively.
Post a Comment