Polls conducted since our update last evening suggest some tightening toward John McCain, but he sits well behind both nationwide and in many key battleground states and remains a long-shot to win the election.
The good news for McCain? SurveyUSA has become the latest pollster to show the race tightening in Pennslyvania, now giving Barack Obama a 7-point lead after he'd been in the mid-double digits at various points in October. The Muhlenberg/Morning Call tracker has also continued to tighten, also settling on that 7-point number.
SurveyUSA also has Virginia tightening a bit to 4 points. And McCain gained incrementally in the Research 2000, Gallup, and Diageo/Hotline trackers, although this comes after a couple of days when Obama had been moving up. (Rasmussen held steady, whereas Obama ticked up in Zogby).
Overall, our model shows McCain closing Obama's gap in the national popular vote to about 5.4 points. His win percentage has increased to 6.3 percent, from 3.8 percent last night.
However, several cautions about reading too much into these numbers:
Firstly, I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year. There have been relatively few 'fresh' polls conducted within the past 24-48 hours -- most of these state polls were in the field late last week. As we get more data in today and tonight, the model could very well decide that the race is not tightening at all. Moreover, polling conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.
Secondly, even with this tightening, McCain remains well short the 2/2/2 condition that we defined last week:John McCain polling within 2 points in 2 or more non-partisan polls (sorry, Strategic Vision) in at least 2 out of the 3 following states: Colorado, Virginia, Pennsylvania.
Indeed, McCain has not come within 2 points of Obama in any polls in any of these states.
Finally, where McCain has made progress, it has come mostly from undecided voters rather than Obama's support -- this is particularly the case in Pennsylvania. Therefore, he may be running out of persuadables to persuade.
11.02.2008
Today's Polls, 11/2: Afternoon Edition
@ 1:54 PM
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311 comments
first! ?
Yes, but what does Zogby think?!? ;)
I live in the red part of PA. And based on the doors I just knocked on, it might be tightening, but no way this thing comes in any worse for Obama than Kerry did.
Nate you are concluding things that may not exist.
You are forgetting that your predictions are just educated guesses and you are writing as if something that hasn't happened, actually has.
Your writings about Mason-Dixon speak as if they have been proven wrong.
Their polls were the best in 04.
Does anyone know if MO and NC had strong early voting when BO was still on top of the polls? Because then he might still pull it off.
It says it all that I saw McCain's 6.3% and almost screamed.
We need some perspective here. If someone had offered us these odds even in early September we'd have bitten their hand off.
Holy crap... mac's win rate nearly doubles overnight... is the sky falling?
yes. remember that evangelicals don't celebrate halloween. i can attest to this from personal traumatic childhood experience. they are the only ones home getting polled.
YES!!! YES!!!!!!
CRY LIBS!!! BOW DOWN!!! MCCAIN'S WIN % WILL CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!
What I find slightly worrying, though by no means cause for complete alarm, is that Virginia is tightening to within 3-4.
I know, I shouldnt be worried!
Please November 5th, come and take my worries away!
Maybe this is a stupid question, but could the mud they're trying to drudge up on Obama's aunt have any effect at this point?
The local NC Obama folk are telling us to ignore the polls. The GOTV effort will swamp the numbers.
It is supposed to rain in NC on Tuesday. Wet and miserable day. Given that 75% of voters have already cast their vote in NC (compared to 2004 numbrs), and given that 70% of those folks are non-Republican ... well, you do the math. :)
The R2000 Dkos poll is at O +7. The +4 number is from Sat., not the three day rolling average. The sample size for the one day is extremely volatile.
Why does your chart above show the R2000 Dkos poll at the one day +4 rather than the three day rolling average number of +7?
Uh oh... Zogby has Obama ticking up? That can't be a good thing.
:0
Warning: The Super Tracker is going haywire again! This has happened several times in the past, as it tends to overreact to trends. Take Nate's caveats seriously, as McCain's win percentage is likely to plummet again by tomorrow. Breath easy, everything will be fine.
yiannis:
Read Nate's Mason Dixon comments again. He said they very well turn out to be accurate, just that they've leaned more Republican than the average.
WEEKEND POLLS:
What to believe?
Do these polls show any consistent variation from weekday polls?
Looks like state polls _do_ lag a bit behind national polls. I'm sure they would be up next week again, but alas, nobody will poll then, all will question whom President Obama will grace with a job.
Yes, the race is tightening in Pennsylvania and Virginia, neither of which has early voting. There is now an outside chance McCain will win one of these, and a really outside chance he wins both. If he won both, and Florida, then he'd have some chance, however slight, of winning the election. But Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico are all gone for McCain, and Ohio has a foot out the door. The national vote and final margin of victory may well be tightening, but it won't change anything of consequence.
I'll take Obama's numbers on the big pie over McCain's thank you very much.
All the same, my fellow mom "thugs" and I will vote in NJ and spend the afternoon in the PA suburbs on the GOTV.
agosesse - what will become of McCain/Palin after election.
YES!!! YESS!!!!!!
YOU STUPID LIBERAL F*CKS!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOK HOW RED THAT MAP IS!!!
LOOK AT THAT SUPER TRACKER!!!
LOOK AT THAT WIN PERCENTAGE!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
You're pretty dumb, Pete.
Can we ban the fake PeteKent?
Pete, do you have any understanding of anything at all? I imagine you as a guy with newspaper articles posted all over the walls of his den who drinks way too much caffeine and spends all of his free time trying to kill people through the television using mind powers.
Latest news for anxiety trolls:
Lewis Hamilton becomes the first black man to win the F1 drivers' championship.
Not strictly kosher statistically, but methinks 'tis like an omen.
Sedi, the liberal quasivirginia retard,
The verb is spelled 'breathe'.
Which I won't be doing much of because Mccain's inevitable victory is going to steal my breath away.
Weekend polling is more favorable to Republicans generally. These are good numbers.
Meanwhile, if one consults the early voting numbers, Obama has already won Nevada and New Mexico. So... yeah. I'll be sad to see this election draw to an end, but what an end!
wv: mettrama. What you get after Mets lose.
Seems fishy that SUSA has Obama attracting on 80% of the black vote.
I feel sorry for PeteKent.
He's obviously pretty frustrated.
The shape of the model's projected and trend lines shows an unmistakable tightening.
Hopefully not enough to torpedo an Obama victory.
But certainly enough to feed the paranoia of progressives who've seen this movie before.
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
YOU LIBS ARE SCARED! I WOULD BE TOO IF MY MESSIAH WAS LOSING!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAAHHHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
"Kenneth, whats the frequency?!?"---John Zogby
Petekent: "YOU LIBS ARE SCARED! I WOULD BE TOO IF MY MESSIAH WAS LOSING!!!!"
We're losing? Rub those bloodshot eyes of yours and try to stare real hard at the little pie chart at the top. Or go to the princeton election consortium, or andrea moro, or RCP, or Pollster, or... you get the point.
Yes, the race is tightening in Pennsylvania and Virginia, neither of which has early voting.
Tell that to the ~70 person line still waiting to vote outside the Franconia County building last night at 7:30 PM. The polls closed at five.
petekent said...
YES!!! YESS!!!!!!
YOU STUPID LIBERAL F*CKS!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOK HOW RED THAT MAP IS!!!
LOOK AT THAT SUPER TRACKER!!!
LOOK AT THAT WIN PERCENTAGE!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
McCain Landslide probability: 0/10000.
At this point, I have a better chance of catching leukemia this afternoon.
I don't like where this trend is going. I've been a nervous wreck these last few days and I can't wait for Tuesday to just be over with. Two days in politics is an eternity. Where is the sense in people, though? Why on earth would anyone vote for McCain?
Down with anti-intellectualism!
RE POLLS VERSUS EARLY VOTING
I've asked this before. How does the pollster models match up against early voting? How can one use 2004 as a model when early voting already is demonstrably different in composition and size in several key states like NC and FL from 2004? I would love an answer to this. I do think your modeling and reliance on polls is a good thing, but does seem to be a dangerous way to react to actual results that we already know.
A couple misconceptions on the board already...
- VA does not have early voting? I early voted in Richmond, VA yesterday in-person
- People are reading way too much into this NC early vote business. 50% Dem, 31% Rep early-voter. Okay...let's look at WV 59% Dem, 31% Rep early voter, and that state is going to go for McCain by at least 8. It's called a conservative-Democrat, perhaps you should research the history of this group. These are not new Democrats voting (Obama voters) in NC -- only 38% of early voters are under 45. These are old conservative, white, Democrats. Wonder if they will be pulling the lever for Obama??
RE REALLIGNMENT
I asked this before as well without any answer. How does your model and that of other pollsters respond to the fact that this may be a reallignment election? Meaning, that if the Democrats win across the board, and the composition of voter turn out is demographically not quite as it was in 2004- how do you adjust statistically for facts as they change outside of polling data and historical demographics?
I know the focus is on North Carolina, Pennsylvania, etc. I have some questions about the polls in Mississippi. There have been lines with up to 20 minute waits for people absentee voting. In Harrison County alone, as of Friday, 6,000 people had cast absentee ballots. This is unprecedented for my county and other counties in Mississippi are reporting higher absentee voting as well.
Is there a breakdown of what counties the polls are conducted in?
@Arno - it's just undecideds deciding. Unlike past elections where both candidates were within the MoE, this means very little, even if McCain took more undecideds than Obama.
Obama. Will. Win. PA. and. VA. and. CO.
WV: quess, or the sound of PeteKent's spirit breaking on tuesday night.
Nate, are you going to incorporate early voting numbers into all this? I mean, most of Nevada and New Mexico electorate has already voted, and it's Obama by several. lengths.
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
We're losing? Rub those bloodshot eyes of yours and try to stare real hard at the little pie chart at the top.
Look at the SUPER TRACKER!!!
Stupid lib.
VIRGINIA is RED!
PENNSYLVANIA is RED!
INDIANA is RED!
MISSOURI is RED!
OHIO is RED!
FLORIDA is RED!
Anyone find it odd that their polls never have Obama over 50 ? Kinda interesting...
TYPO: "polls conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.
Polls IS unreliable?
RE: NV early vote partisan breakdown...suggest you consult pollster Steve Nathan's poll of 13,000 NV early voters before coming to conclusions that NV is in the bag for Obama. His 2004 early vote poll was dead-on and his 2008 poll is showing McCain is attracting hoards of....omg...conservative Democrats!
Hey Nate. What's happening man?
Obama is not up 4 in the Daily Kos poll today. He's actually up 7. I guess your taking one day of polling (Saturday). But the whole point of one day polling, is that it's volatile and can't always be trusted.
Secondly. Look inside that Penn SUSA poll. It has the black vote at only 80%, with 10% turn out.
If you up the black vote percentage and increase the turn out, Obama wins handsomely.
Close or not, Obama is going to win Pennsylvania and I think nationally Obama has improved his standings in the polls and not contracted them.
Nate,
The Mason-Dixon poll for Florida isn't showing up in your summary list for today's polls. (It does appear in the Florida polls on the right though.) What's the deal?
Look at the SUPER TRACKER!!!
O +5.4 Snap.
O +4.7 Pred.
You were saying?
You look at these polls, and the thing that sticks is that if it wasn't for the far-right Republican pollster like Mason-Dixon, it would be all blue. The fact that MD's state polls resemble IBD/TIPP and AP/Dunkin' Donuts is telling.
What's Obama's schedule for the next 2 days? If the campaign (and Ed Rendell) are convinced Pennsylvania is in the bag, fine, but after today I'd suggest, at the very least:
Virginia Rally w/ Warner, Webb, Kaine, Powell
Ohio Rally w/ Bill Clinton
Also, I'm not impressed with how the Obama campaign have allowed McCain to win a couple of news cycles since Wedneday. They shouldn't have crammed the infomercial, Florida rally w/ Bill Clinton and the Daily Show appearance into one night. That was at least enough for 2 nights.
"Look at the SUPER TRACKER!!!
Stupid lib.
VIRGINIA is RED!
PENNSYLVANIA is RED!
INDIANA is RED!
MISSOURI is RED!
OHIO is RED!
FLORIDA is RED!"
A) Not a lib, a European-style Ordoliberal/Social Democrat/Freiburg School Economist
B) Where can I get some of the PCP you're smoking?
wv: banti - Pete's imaginary racist dragon friend that takes him on galactic trips while the rest of us stupid libs are sound asleep
What poll caused FL to flip to M+0.1?? The recent polls all show an Obama lead still.
--TYPO: "polls conducted on a weekend -- particularly on a quasi- holiday weekend -- is generally unreliable.
Polls IS unreliable?--
Actually, that isn't a typo, which is what it is called if a word is spelled wrong. It's an agreement error.
Just sayin'
J
Please stop being insulting. I hate reading insulting posters. I've been following the actual composition of the Democratic turn out in NC for the last few weeks. That's precisely why I am asking my questions. I am not assuming anything. I am comparing and contrasting the turnout with expected results for black and white voters who are Democratic- for example- and they don't add up to MDs description. I am not even getting into issue of some models and their level of undecideds this close to the election. Rather than responding to specifics you fail back on generality. For the record, the composition has apparently a high composition of sporadic or first time voters. It has a higher composition of AA voters than in previous cycles. There are estimates that to win NC McCain's ground game must win 60 percent or so of the remaining voters with a 70 percent turn out. 70 percent would be an incredible turn out. Something like 40 percent of eligible voters in NC (including 100,000 new voters who registered just during the early voting - again your Dixicrat theory doesn't explain the 100k new voters). I'd love real conversation rather than cw. Thank.s
It's over, libs.
This, combined with stealing and cheating...you might as well just give up now.
Concede now and you won't be heartbroken on 11/4...HAHA!
Stupid libs!!!!
Obama is not up 4 in the Daily Kos poll today. He's actually up 7. I guess your taking one day of polling (Saturday). But the whole point of one day polling, is that it's volatile and can't always be trusted.
It just goes into the sausage maker like every day before. Strictly speaking, Nate's model has every day of that poll since the beginning, with the more recent days give more weight. It all smoothes itself out in the end.
No, we shouldn't ban PeterKent, real or fake. He has the right to express his opinion, just as we have the right to express ours, thanks to the remaining shreds of the First Amendment that his kind didn't tear up. He also has the right to be utterly wrong, like he and his ilk have been for the better part of six years, dumping this great country into the septic tank. Let he and his type think they have a chance (although the words "Neocon" and "think" don't really mix). Reading his posts makes me smile, thinking that someone on the Titanic surely said, "It's just a scratch" before the cold, cold water erased that though, forever ...
'Surprise' is coming !
This is worth reading
There is something wrong with the projection.
We are practically at the end of the campaign season and yet the "prjection" continues to be lower than "trend" - as if the election is still a month away.
The trend and projection need to be converging at this point. Less than 48 hours to go ... I don't see how they can differ by more than 10% (5.4 to 4.7).
petekent said...
Look at the SUPER TRACKER!!!
Stupid lib.
VIRGINIA is RED!
PENNSYLVANIA is RED!
INDIANA is RED!
MISSOURI is RED!
OHIO is RED!
FLORIDA is RED!
I'll just let that speak for itself.
WV: wigna - the merkin for the ladies
PeteKent - you should either get tested for colorblindness or enroll in remedial USA Geography.
MSNBC really pushing those m-d polls every second...Kinda of interesting to see them push those so much but when someone mentions other polls they sort of dismiss them.....eh guess we will find out tues...
Stop reacting to PeteKent, he's obviously not being serious.
It's either satire or just an attempt to get under your skin, but I can guarantee you that he doesn't actually beleive the stuff he's typing and there's no sense getting upset over it or even addressing it, really.
Two things:
Mason Dixon did relatively well in '04, but they didn't do well in the Senate Races of '06. Almost all of their polls were off by about 2-3 points in favor of the Republican candidate. (See RCP archives)
Secondly:
Nate, your model, which now shows McCain winning Florida, seems somewhat suspect to me. There hasn't been a single poll released in the last few days with McCain ahead in Florida. Furthermore, your model assumes, pretty much across the board, that Obama will underperform his polling average in all battleground states. I could have bought this argument had the national trackers moved towards McCain yesterday and today. The tightening today is so minimal and comes off of quite significant movement towards Obama in yesterday's trackers.
The problem I have with this is that there are so many panicky people on this site that these numbers will only give them more reason to panic. I almost feel like your model is beginning to "panic" as well. OK, that's an exaggeration, but still, WHY does the model assume consistent Obama under-performance of polling average in all battleground states? Please someone explain to me. I don't see the trend-- I only see insignificant noise.
apology: I'm not the susan who has made it to the visible part of the comment section a few times. Here's another try.
About states in play. Here in Boston a new call center has just opened 9:30 am to midnight through Tuesday to make calls out of state, including time zone change. Organization is out of this world. I expect to see a lot of people there.
re Khalidi and other scummy insults. I think it has been wise of Obama to simply point out the facts and move on. The high ground approach has caught a lot of people's attention. I noticed vast numbers of switches from moderate Republicans because of Sarah Palin and other nastiness. But if anyone wants to know the facts about Khalidi et al., TPM and other sites, as well as the much maligned MSM, have pointed out the problems with all of these. In every case, a little digging finds that McCain has similar or worse associations (if you wish to call them that, in some cases it's just name calling):
"John McCain’s International Republican Institute Gave $448,873 to Rashid Khalidi’s Center for Palestine Research and Studies"
(I'm leaving out the links, google provides quite a few).
And this: "So what if people died? Not their problem. Just like they happily use incitement at their rallies and if, God forbid, it leads to the national tragedy we all have nightmares about, so what. Not their problem."
http://tpmcafe.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/10/29/is_the_gop_trying_to_instigate/
That's enough for the moment, gotta go out and GOTV!
IBD Tipp......!
46.7 Obama
44.6 McCain
8.7% Unsure
Can't complain about the youth internals here. You know that since this election is all about Obama, 75% will go to McCain, 10% to Obama and the rest won't vote.
Its all over for Obama.....
I think real joes surprise is that we are going to win (and win big) despite our own complete lack of confidence..
:)
breathe
McCain's only strategy is to win a 537 vote victory in each of Florida, Ohio, Missouri, North Carolina, Virginia, Nevada, Colorado, and Indiana.
I am confused about something. As we move closer to election day, a 5 point lead becomes better than a 5 point lead farther out, no? So each day Obama's win percentage is constant is a day that he went down in the polls, right? I'm asking because it seems like this was a big drop in win percentage for a small change in polls. Likewise, I feel like the snapshot and prediction have differed by, say, 1 pt long ago, but now they aren't as close as I'd think just 2 days out. I know we've talked about regression to the mean and the snapshot will always be farther from the middle than the prediction. It just seems like the difference is still too big given how little time there is left, and that so many people have already voted.
Nate: your McCain win percentage ought to be going DOWN not up at this point!
Obama is up by at last 4, and averaging a 7% lead (taking the daily trackers you list and weighting them by the pollster weights you give them).
Obama up by an average of 7% within 48 hours of the election and you think McCain has a 6% chance of victory? That's just nonsense!
There's NO good news in the state polling either with the exception of the two Mason-Dixon polls, which pollster YOU point out has a 3% McCain house effect.
Thus, Mason-Dixon is actually predicting that NC is tied and McCain is trailing in MO, Obama is up by 7% in NV and in Ohio by 1%.
None of that is at all good news for McCain who just ran out the clock.
He's lost. CO + NM + IA and holding PA = Obama 273 + NV = 278
278 EV is the absolute BEAR minimum that Obama will win on election day.
In reality, he's going to win either FL or OH or both, plus VA and possibly some other states as well.
VW: "Hymera" -- a hyper-chimera which is what a McCain 6% chance of winning is!
Question that came up at our house recently.....
How do those who have already voted factor in when it comes to ANSWERING a poll?
We voted over a week ago and have changed our outgoing message to state that "if you are calling to persuade us to vote your way.... It's too late."
Will that cause a pollster to hang up and not ask how we are GOING to vote? Would that skew their numbers because it isn't a prediction of future behavior and that's what they need/want?
We HAVE been polled by some (very) minor polling company. So we HAVE been called. But that was before we voted.
If they remove the "already voted" from the polling sample, they will be removing those who trend (at least in theory) towards Democrat and Obama. Thus, the polls will result in more Republicans who have yet to go pull the lever for McCain.
Or does early voting not make a whit of difference?
RE NV
The same is true there. People are saying don't believ eyoru eyes. But I m following the numbers. I don't get the arguments being made other than the partisanship. The fact is the composition of NV as far as I understand (I am not as closely tied to NV as NC) are very different than in 2004. If this true, I'd love analysis that includes the numbers as we see in early voting into any modeling. It seems odd to model with out the model including actual real world data versus just polling data. This is the central flaw I see right now in this site. If I am wrong- someone please provide me with a real explaination comparing and contrasting polling versus early voting data using 2004 and 2008.
I would very much like to see a side-by-side comparison of the model results with the old poll-aging method and with the new one. It would be instructive to see the shift in the EV distribution with poll-aging, and might help us understand how much of the increase in JMC's win probability is due to broadening of the distribution (i.e. uncertainty/entropy) and how much is due to a sideways translation (i.e. poll movement).
WV: Gared. Me Gared! Me Very Gared!!!
BEAR minimum = "I'm bearish on McCain's Chances!"
Reelgeist,
I am sorry I hurt your liberal feelings. If you'd like to step out of your fantasy land....
Percentage of early voters as of this morning in NC http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Race
White
69.6%
Black
26.1%
CNN's 2004 exit poll of NC...
African-American (26%)
I would love to hear how 26.1% represents a significant spike in AA turnout over 2004?
Sorry, I know it hurts but the numbers don't lie...
I have already mentioned my reasons for BHO losing a tight race. Undecideds WILL tip it to JMac by 7-3 if not 8-2. College kids WILL be too f#cking lazy as always. In PA, the real race is 3-5 points and will tighten up within the margin of error since BHO is refusing to go there anymore.
I just don't feel good about PA/VA/NC/OH/MO. They will go red. BHO just cannot ignore PA because of JMac keeps all the red states and win PA while losing NM/NV/CO he still wins.
Okay, there is one thing I don't really understand, and haven't for about the past week. This will be my second election to vote in, but I didn't pay as close attention to polling as I am this go round.
Why is there any shift other than static noise? Or is it all static? I would think in the last week that everyone who is going to get out and vote already knows how they're going to vote, so I would think the polls would stay around where they were this time last week.
It seems to me that Indiana and Missouri, particularly, move around like a confused bisexual. Missouri even moreso. It is obviously going to be a very close race there (if polling is not under-counting anything which it most likely is), so why is it pink one day, and then light blue the next?
FL 0.1 for McCain?!?!
This comment forum needs to be fumigated. Maybe we can create a separate one for adults?
First!!!
And also, again, stop with the Pennsylvania talk everyone. Obama will win, and will win easily. It is not in play, and hasn't been for awhile.
Prediction: IBD-TIPP will be the first and only poll to show a McCain lead.
"Sedi, the liberal quasivirginia retard,
The verb is spelled 'breathe'."
Wow, am I an idiot. I'll admit that one typo in a hastily typed comment pretty much invalidates anything else that I've ever said. I guess everybody should assume that McCain is coming back strong. Hey all of you Obama supporters, we'd better just concede the election now. Don't listen to David Gergen, Ed Rollins, George Will, Matt Dowd, or any of those other lefties who are predicting a comfortable Obama win. Dmitry clearly knows exactly what is going on with the election in a way that nobody else can. What fools we Obama supporters have been!
You stupid liberal c*nts.
Just face the facts! Hussein hit his peak too early. And now he's coming down, just in time for a MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!
With Georgia's early voting, almost as many black women have voted as white men.
Hey Nate.
How can you reduce Obama's lead, when he's improved on Gallup, Rassmussen, Washpo, the new CBS and NBC polls (where he's up big).
Also if you want to take one day of Kos, well what about the +10 day on Zogby for Obama. Doesn't that cancel that Kos day out.
Also, if other daily trackers, didn't see that volatility, why make that such a big deal with the Kos tracker (only you truly entered the info in wrong)?
just in case anyone is still interested in whether the Palin phone call has any traction, my 11 year old son came running in earlier today to tell me all about it. He saw it on CBBC news (that's the BBC children's channel in the UK). He thought it was hilarious. They left out the bit about Nailin Palin luckily.
About the site: can someone explain why McC's % just went up to > 6%, when it was 3.8% before?
"Palin 2012" concedes defeat! If Palin expected McCain to win, then why would she be running against an incumbent and her own party in 2012?
There is tightening, we all expected it. The polls still do not have the cell phone effect, or the turnout factored in. This tightening whould increase Obama turnout.
It's all good.
The mental health professionals will be making a bundle after this election. Please provide emotional support for your family and friends. They will need all of your untiring efforts and time. Take care and be safe.
I meant to say, "unless you entered the info in wrong".
A message for McCain supporters: he's just doubled his win percentage! MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
J,
The 2004 NC exit poll was off. NC actually keeps records of vote by race (most southern states are required to), and the 2004 NC electorate was 21% AA.
And how come this map (posted on Drudge's site) shows Colorado for McCain? http://www.nypost.com/seven/11022008/photos/news004a.jpg
You know that since this election is all about Obama, 75% will go to McCain, 10% to Obama and the rest won't vote.
Well, no. Not exactly... See, about half of the people who sit on the fence this long are actually "gargoyles". They don't move. They don't do any thing. They don't vote. The other half usually break +/- 10%. Usually, but not always, towards the person who is ahead. There was a good ATC story about this Friday night.
Personally, I wonder how these people manage to feed themselves. I imagine them waking up in the morning and then standing in the kitchen all day waiting to decide if they want butter or jam on their toast.
Just posted this on the last thread as well, but ots worth thinking about, given the numbers Axelrod was quoting about Florida
----------------------
If Obama wins Florida thats pretty much the game done there. McCain would need to pretty much win everything else that he can win to get to 270. (PA, VA, CO, NC, NV etc etc) and I am pretty sure Obama is racking up similarly unsurmountable leads in the early voting in other states as well.
tony:
Quite right, I thought the same thing about Hamilton! Hard fought through an absolutely crazy race to pull it off at the last corner... Can't see any parallels at all there, no sir. ;)
Excellent race and season too... Now I can focus on the four-year championship.
The polls have been tightening every weekend, and expanding during the week as the weekend roll off.
This is something I *think* I've noticed, but I'd love to see Nate address it.
Early voting is meaningless either way. The Obama campaign is treating blacks like slaves, making them wait in line for 5-6 hours for no reason other than he thinks they are too stupid to vote.
It is Obama that is treating AA as second class citizens. Obama is the personification of what blacks most despise, an uppity black man that treats them like dirt. Watch how they will be the first to turn on him if Obama does win the election.
I live in CA - I just got a call from a human phone banker reminding me where my polling place is and asking for my vote for Obama.
To me that sounds like one or both of two things:
1) They want to really push the national PV.
2) They have more than enough phone bankers to reach the battleground voters.
Again, this wasn't a robocall.
(I have gotten a real-person phone call against Prop 8 as well, so they seem to be reaching their most likely supporters also.)
can someone explain why McC's % just went up to > 6%, when it was 3.8% before?
Because FL went from about a 70 for Obama to 50/50 with one new poll showing a tie and another showing Obama +2. I'm not sure where this came from.
Seems fishy that SUSA has Obama attracting on 80% of the black vote.
In know they showed that in CA, but are the VA and PA internals also showing such an unlikely breakdown of the AA vote??
#1 Pennsylvania has a Jewish Governor.
#2 Lynn Swann outperformed the polls.
#3 38 out of 38 polls from 17 pollsters have shown Obama leading in the last 5 weeks.
#4 Pennsylvania has been BLUER than the rest of the country in every Presidential election since 1948.
I'm not worried about Pennsylvania.
What the heck in Florida? How did it close to a tie without any new polls (showing?) and a solid majority of polls giving it to BO.
BTW mccain campaign using robo calls of Hilary "supporting" john mccain.....
If Obama wins Virginia, he's almost certain to win.
If Obama wins Florida, he's almost certain to win.
If Obama wins North Carolina, he's almost certain to win.
If Obama wins Ohio, he's almost certain to win.
If Obama wins Pennsylvania, he's almost certain to win.
Adam
Thank you for getting to responding to J before I did. You did it far nicer. Let's remember also that this was the final tally of the exit polls and not early voting. So right now the turnout of AAs in NC is already out performing all of 2004 by several percentage points before we have even had the final push on Tues. This illustrates my point exactly about MD's modeling.
J
Numbers aren't liberal or conservative. They are numbers. They are right or wrong. By the way, nice projection about hurt feelings. My feeling are irrelevant to the numbers. So , are yours. I suspect however that the real issue is your feelings, and thus your response to my very valid questions.
Drudge is such a lying sack of crap. PLEASE do not give him the hits he craves. ALL LIBERALS, JUST SAY NO TO DRUDGE! Go to the huffington post or TPM.
jack-be-nimble said...
Early voting is meaningless either way. The Obama campaign is treating blacks like slaves, making them wait in line for 5-6 hours for no reason other than he thinks they are too stupid to vote.
It is Obama that is treating AA as second class citizens. Obama is the personification of what blacks most despise, an uppity black man that treats them like dirt. Watch how they will be the first to turn on him if Obama does win the election.
McCain '08: Vote massa', not house nigger.
*Scoff*
"And how come this map (posted on Drudge's site) shows Colorado for McCain?"
Wow. If its posted on Drudge's site, it must be true. No wonder McCain pulled ads out of Colorado. Its because its already a McCain victory.
@PeteKent:
YES!!! YESS!!!!!!
YOU STUPID LIBERAL F*CKS!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOK HOW RED THAT MAP IS!!!
LOOK AT THAT SUPER TRACKER!!!
LOOK AT THAT WIN PERCENTAGE!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
Are you retarded?
I can imagine you libs:
Tomorrow: Rasmussen: Obama+1 (CRY!!!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!!!! HUSSEIN NO!!!!! OH WELL, WE STILL HAVE GALLUP, ABC NEWS, CBS, DAILYKOS!!!!)
Tomorrow:DailyKos: Obama+2 (NO!!! HUSSEIN!!! NOOOO!!!!)
Tomorrow:Gallup: (TIE in all models)
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO *suicide*
HAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHA
Here's your path for McCain without Florida:
Pennsylvania
Virginia
Colorado
Ohio
Missouri
Indiana
Nevada
North Carolina
Georgia
and at least 1 more state from these...
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Iowa
Minnesota
Washington
Wisconsin
NO chance 0.0001% maybe
Adam,
Fair enough, thank you for that information. My points is that even with 26% AA as share of the vote, assume AA goes for Obama by 95-5, even if whites are only 70% of the share this time and they go 70-30 for McCain (I'm knocking off about 4pts from Bush's share of whites), we're still looking at a 50-50'ish race, not the bizarre "in-the bad for Obama" predictions I see on this thread all the time.
I'll take comfort from the fact that 6% is still pretty low.......
wv scorniv - we treat Pete Kent pretty scorniv on this site; he only needs more meds and to learn to do caps unlock
Okay - I checked. SUSA has the black vote as
VA: 88 - 10
PA: 80 - 16
I don't see where they break down the black vote as a percentage of their sample either.
leitmotiv said...
And how come this map (posted on Drudge's site) shows Colorado for McCain?
ask the question from nypost
I'm just wondering if Drudge knows about an early Colorado victory. I heard on the BBC that Colorado may dump thousands of votes because the sitting republican congressmen in the state... Could the state be stolen?
Jack is quite hilarious.
Yes, he's "making" them wait in those lines. They have no choice! They just HAVE to stand there all day!
While, of course, the white suburban voters have 15 min lines. Again. But we don't need to mention that now, do we? :)
No!!! 6.3 percent win!
This is a crisis!
Last 13 Florida polls, 11 have Obama ahead, 1 tie, 1 McCain ahead (Strategic Vision, Republican Lean)
17 of 18 pundits pick Obama to win Florida.
53.8% of 2004 # have voted early. Dems outnumbered Pubs by 7.9%. Pubs had a 2.8% advantage in 2004. In Florida polls, independents say they'll vote more for Obama. There were more Dems than Pubs in 2004, but Bush won by 5%. That's a caveat, but it's not enough.
I'm actually excited to see that win percentage for McCain go higher - complacency is the only thing that can take down Obama at this point and a 1 or 2% win percentage wouldn't help the GOTV effort.
I'm just wondering what's going to happen in this country culturally if McCain wins...there's a large segment of the most passionate Obama supporters who will FREAK OUT if he loses...
pete
come back on election night
:-)
The fascinating thing about PA is that it's always fairly close regardless of the national situation. The last time anyone won by more than single figures percentage-wise was Nixon in 1972.
I have the model programmed to be EXTREMELY aggressive this time of year.
Nate, are you secretly in league with the makers of anti-anxiety meds? Methinks you've over-aggressived your model. It's saying things that don't seem to be supported by any data.
Couple of notes:
1. Exit poll data for black voters in 2004 was wrong. The NC secretary of state says that black voter percentage was 18% in 2004. Most pollsters are using 20% composition in 2008. That is conservative given early voting.
2. CNN FINAL National #s
O-53
M-46
The 53 number is the most important.
Blogger drscott said...
What the heck in Florida? How did it close to a tie without any new polls (showing?) and a solid majority of polls giving it to BO.
Nate's ginned up the sensitivity to the model and with a couple of new polls, the model freaked. Personally, I think Nate's been taking lessons from Drudge and Zogby and has noticed how alarming his readers drives traffic. (Please take that as a joke.)
WV—"blessupe"—a condiment commonly found at church dinners.
Re SUSA
Its not just fishy it is bizzare. It would mean Obama would be underperforming Kerry with the black vote. Again, looking at early voting outcomes that would mean the numbers we are seeing in GA and NC with heavier black turn out are doing so because a large portion are showing up for McCain and are excited by his candidacy.
"Because FL went from about a 70 for Obama to 50/50 with one new poll showing a tie and another showing Obama +2. I'm not sure where this came from."
- That would be your polling Messiah Nate Silver covering his ass for when the Obama blow-out doesn't materialize. He's right that McCain is going to lose, but these Obama 350, 360 EV predictions are ridiculous.
Nate predicts OBama will win North Carolina by 0.6%.
He also predicts that Obama will get a higher % of the vote in Indiana than Ohio.
Pete is a perfect example of why you shouldn't allow your young children access to the internet.
Bitter lib, bitter lib.
On November 4th, McCain's will be ahead or TIED in ALL the trackers!!! hahahahaha!!!!
His win % will be 50%...or higher!!! HAHAHA!!
AND HE WILL WIN IN AN UNEXPECTED LANDSLIDE!!!
PS. About MSM liberal bias, I liked this one. Apparently factchecking is only allowed on one side.
Palin feels her first amendment rights are threatened by criticism!
"If [the media] convince enough voters that that is negative campaigning, for me to call Barack Obama out on his associations," Palin told host Chris Plante, "then I don't know what the future of our country would be in terms of First Amendment rights and our ability to ask questions without fear of attacks by the mainstream media." Sooooooooooooo...
more from commentary on ABC news story:
"This isn't only about profound ignorance regarding our basic liberties, though it is obviously that. Palin here is also giving voice here to the standard right-wing grievance instinct: that it's inherently unfair when they're criticized. And now, apparently, it's even unconstitutional.
"According to Palin, what the Founders intended with the First Amendment was that political candidates for the most powerful offices in the country and Governors of states would be free to say whatever they want without being criticized in the newspapers. The First Amendment was meant to ensure that powerful political officials would not be "attacked" in the papers."
(Greenwald, Salon)
Goerge Will predicted this morning that Obama will win by a higher % than Bush beat Dukakis by, 7.8%.
eric at 1:25 made a good point. Why IS the model projecting McCain ahead (barely)? It doesn't make sense to me based on the latest polling.
Li said...
Can we ban the fake PeteKent?
November 2, 2008 1:10 PM
**********
please don't.
Pete is our guest star.
LOL
"He also predicts that Obama will get a higher % of the vote in Indiana than Ohio."
?
OH 50.5, IN 48.6
Did you look at the wrong numbers?
Pete said...
Holy crap... mac's win rate nearly doubles overnight... is the sky falling?
In a way, yes. The state polls, albeit "conservative" polls, are tightening, and they shouldn't be, IMO. It looks to me like they're lagging behind the national polls from earlier this week. I'm of the opinion that McCain shouldn't be gaining anything at this point. Saying that, Obama could steamrolls McCainif he wanted. Since Wednesday, Obama hasn't put a foot wrong, but he hasn't exactly done anything noteworthy or exciting to energise the base or drive the media narrative. He's in Ohio with Springsteen, but it's not enough. Obama needs to be stumping with the big guns of the party. That's what McCain is doing, and it's having a positive effect on himself. He aslo has his buddies in the MSM shilling for him. Two SNL appearances in the space of a few weeks, and two Larry King interviews in the space of a few days. Didn't McCNN refuse to air Obama's infomercial because of coming across as biased? On the same night they gave McCain an hour of free airtime to whine about Obama, no less.
J
Your point is numerically wrong. But what's the point. You are just making things up at this point. For one thing, a lo of the composition of NC is of newly registered voters not Dixicrats. At least 100,000. Or something like 2 percent of eligible voters now in the state of NC just registered in the last 2 weeks of early voting if my math is right. Like I said I believ eyou and others are impervious to data. I am not favoring Obama here. I am simply trying to understand whether polling models make sense against already known results.
How did FL drop win % by so much?
My post was supposed to say the model has McCain barely ahead in Florida.
Real Joe said...
'Surprise' is coming !
November 2, 2008 1:23 PM
***********
still waiting...
@alladdressingPeteKent
Would you please, please stop feeding the troll.
Leitmotiv said...
I'm just wondering if Drudge knows about an early Colorado victory. I heard on the BBC that Colorado may dump thousands of votes because the sitting republican congressmen in the state... Could the state be stolen?
If there is a state that could be stolen this cycle, it would be Colorado. But I think even this one is a stretch.
This is great news for John McCain!
Oh wait...
"Li said...
Can we ban the fake PeteKent?"
I would be more in favor of banning anyone who responds to him.
*Yawn.* Assuming McCain and Obama turn out their support at equal rates, Rasmussen is probably right that the election is like 51.5(O)/46.5(M)/2(B+N).
Assuming BHO's ground game equals a ~2% advantage similar to Bush over Kerry, it's a landslide. But conservative assumptions are probably more prudent for somebody like Rasmussen whose credibility equals $$.
Shouldn't the R2000 poll be Obama +7 instead of Obama +4?
You STUPID lib f**ker
MCCAIN will win in A LANDSLIDE!!!!
@j
Do you really think that given the enthusiasm gap of Obama and McCain supporters that the early vote is not news?
Real Joe is Sean.
is anyone watching John McCain's rally on MSNBC right now? What's up with the popped collar? I didn't realize he got style-advice from retarded fraternity guys circa 2005.
And seriously, did he just imply that Barack would cause a nuclear war?? wtf??
Adam said...
"He also predicts that Obama will get a higher % of the vote in Indiana than Ohio."
?
OH 50.5, IN 48.6
Did you look at the wrong numbers?
Nate made some predictions in the Sunday Washington Post today. Though it is puzzling why he is predicting something that is different from the site.
The Other said...
The polls have been tightening every weekend, and expanding during the week as the weekend roll off.
This is something I *think* I've noticed, but I'd love to see Nate address it.
November 2, 2008 1:37 PM
*************
up to next week-end the poll won't tightening anymore.
relax.
:)
The tightening of the polls is a
bit unsettling. I believe in cause
and effect, so is this just noise or
some other force that's causing
McCain to surge in the polls?
29 hours to go...
Go 'O' Go
Alright, enough. No more poll watching until PPP is out with polls tonight.
60,000 attend outdoor Obama rally in Columbus
Adam said...
"He also predicts that Obama will get a higher % of the vote in Indiana than Ohio."
?
OH 50.5, IN 48.6
Did you look at the wrong numbers?
No, here's his prediction:
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-srv/opinions/pages/pundit-predictions/index.html?hpid=opinionsbox1
There's a difference between what his projection model predicts and what he predicts himself. He has Obama winning 347 electoral votes and by 7.2%.
My prediction is 353 electoral votes, but only 4.9% popular. He think McCain wins Ohio, I don't. He also picks Obama to win North Dakota and Indiana, I don't think so.
VIRGINIA is now a TOSS UP on RCP's map!
HAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH
"No!!! 6.3 percent win!
This is a crisis!"
You're right, we really should be worried! The ridiculous landslide of 8+ points is now looking like a very modest landslide of 6+ points. If McCain surges, Obama might only win a comfortable election by 4+ points. And if -- horrors of horrors -- McCain makes a huge 5- or 6-point comeback, then Obama will only win in squeaker. Panic everybody!!!! (Except conservatives, of course, since you guys have this election in the bag.)
RE NC
One error on my part. by the way- they registered and voted. So thats 2 percent of actual voters who voted that registered in the last 2 weeks rather than just registered but didn't vote.
No way Obama wins ND unless he also wins MT.
Perhaps we should institute "late voting" to give the undecided voters a little more time to make up their minds.
Final Popular Vote
53.5 Obama
45.5 McCain
1 Third party
That is all McCain can hope for.
@petekent...
What evidence supports your assertion
that McCain/Palin will win in a
landside?
Polling Data?
Gut Feeling?
Past performance by Dems?
Racial Bias?
Belief in Republicans?
Two dueling videos are about to hit according to a well placed and trusted source. This is why McCain has been campaigning so hard.
Video number one is old news, but quite devastating and am unsure of the results of it. It is a 40 second clip of Obama smoking crack and laughing hysterically. It is old and he apparently doesn't use anymore so that is why it might not impact. Even so, Bush got slugged by the 17 year old DUI.
Video number two is the hated "Whitey" video. Since this is not the candidate, but the candidate's wife, it should have no bearing on the voting.
Anyway, we will just have to see.
Anyone know how to contact RCP? They have the IL poll from Rasmussen listed as O+12, but the Rasmussen article has it O+22.
barry,
Those people aren't even going to vote.
@petekent...
What evidence supports your assertion
that McCain/Palin will win in a
landside?
MCCAIN will STEAL the election just like BUSH did. HAHAHAHAHA!
re cheating:
Finally the facts are beginning to emerge about the vast voter suppression effort, which dwarfs the slight evidence of small "fraud" by at least an order of magnitude. Every day there is more evidence, witness recent Time cover story, lots of other coverage, and finally some physical evidence of machines switching votes and stolen ballots as well.
Thanks to the terrific Obama leadership for finally getting some traction on this, we may actually have a vote that only slightly lags the actual real vote, so people will stop being discouraged.
And speaking of courage, how about all the people who are forced to wait up to 8 hours (which mostly happens in lower socioeconomic status areas and is targeted to support wealthy interested parties, who shall be unnamed for the moment).
J and/or Adam,
Do you have links to your respective historical AA numbers in NC?
Two dueling videos are about to hit according to a well placed and trusted source. This is why McCain has been campaigning so hard.
I don't believe this for a second. He's waited too long for this to be much of an advantage because of early voters. If such a thing were true he would have done this mid-October.
OMG - just heard McCain's big stump wrap up - the crowd cheer died out about half way through and he sounded like my lawn mower just as it was about to run out of gas - cough - sputter - sputter - cough - ughhhh!
justsomeguy said...
No way Obama wins ND unless he also wins MT.
The only difference between Nate's prediction and mine is:
I think Obama wins Ohio. Nate thinks McCain wins Ohio.
I think McCain wins North Dakota and Indiana.
Nate thinks Obama wins North Dakota and/or Indiana/Missouri.
Obama has polled ahead in the latest North Dakota polls and behind in Montana. I actually think he comes closer in North Dakota. Schweitzer and Tester proved a Democrat can win their, but I think Obama falls short.
I also think Georgia is too hard to call.
my favorite quote of the day:
"I cannot foresee a scenario that John McCain is elected president of the United States."
-- Republican strategist Frank Luntz, interviewed on the BBC.
Perhaps we should institute early voting. Tell them all the vote is on Nov. 4, and then have the vote Oct. 31, cuz if you have not made up your mind, or change your vote after that it is not based in reality. The change is from stupidity or fear.
In Rasmussen's case, it is more than credibility that counts for $$. It's appeasing his clients such as Faux News.
RE LANDSLIDE
I think people need to come up with a consistent definition because it seems to change with each posters own emotional baggage. I have heard a landslide is anywhere from 5 and up. ALso what do you mean by landslide- electoral votes or popular vote.
Historically, even Reagan only won with I believe 9 points of popular vote difference. A 5 point win would seem to be a landslide to me, but I maybe wrong. Electorally however its been shown that it definitely would be in the mid to upper 300 range. How is this not an electoral state by state landslide? In modern times, who has does this? Not even CLinton? Which Democrat has edged out above even 50 much less winning by 51 or more?
one$earned: Why his good buddy Johnny Walker and his pals Blackie and Red.
While I'm here, let me also translate jack's post: "Krusty is coming... Krusty is coming..."
CloudyFuture said...
MSNBC really pushing those m-d polls every second...Kinda of interesting to see them push those so much but when someone mentions other polls they sort of dismiss them.....eh guess we will find out tues...
"librul media"
Is it me, or are too many of these polls showing screwy internals that seem to benefit McCain. Ever since that ridiculous FOX national poll came out, the polls that matter, meaning state polls, are underpolling Obama's money demographics?
I knew this would happen. These pollsters are cooking a buffet of bullshit polls to make the race look closer than it presumably is. I mean, if obama isn't going back to PA, what gives?
Hi, I've been visiting this site for months now. I'm from western Pa and based on everything I have seen, heard, observed, and noticed, Pennsylvania is probably going to be won by McCain. I've never seen the electorate like this and believe me when I say that because 80% of my friends and family are democrats. I just hope you libs start to realize you've been lied to for months about Obama's poll numbers, and I hope and pray you realize this early enough to avoid the shock on Wednesday morning. Just remember, we're all Americans and that is what must come first over party. Obama was a strong candidate, and a bright man. He's just a socialist though, and Americans aren't likely to vote a socialist into office. McCain wants to go to Washington to change Washington. Obama wants to go to Washington to change Americans. America doesn't need change, it needs the government to be cleaned up.
MT polls have not included Paul by name, Paul changes the scenario there, and a MT paper just endorsed Paul.
holy shit John McCain just went CRAZY at the end of his rally like my grandpa does when the neighborhood kids tip over his garbage cans.
I live in a conservative, rural, part of a very blue county in NC (near Chapel Hill) and we have been having problems lately in this area with signs being stolen. So last week when I put up new Obama signs I superglued the signs to the wire holders, then used multiple sod staples oriented all different directions to hold them in the ground, and then wove poison ivy vines through the sod staples (the hillside by the road is covered with poison ivy).
Yesterday morning I saw someone try to take one of our signs but give up. During the night it really did disappear. I hope they scratched their privates before washing their hands.
wv: parim, the edge around which McCain's resources are falling off into the abyss
How many Obama supporters, told 2 months ago that on Nov 2 their candidate would be given a 94% chance of winning, would have been upset?
Sure the numbers are closing a bit -- that always happens. McCain is still up shit's creek.
Historically, even Reagan only won with I believe 9 points of popular vote difference.
Reagan won by 18 in 1984.
dave p-
You posted that complete BS once, we don't need your lies again. What right wing nutball site did you cut and paste this from?
Hi, I've been visiting this site for months now. I'm from western Pa and based on everything I have seen, heard, observed, and noticed,
Western Pennsylvania is not as heavily populates as eastern Pennsylvania. Eastern Penny has a lot more people voting democratic. Just because you only see what you know in western Penny doesn't mean the whole state is going republican.
More 'Krusty is coming' from dave p.
@jack-on-crack and your secret videos,
We may have all been born at night, but it wasn't last night.
Jack-be-nimble said...
Two dueling videos are about to hit according to a well placed and trusted source. This is why McCain has been campaigning so hard.
Video number one is old news, but quite devastating and am unsure of the results of it. It is a 40 second clip of Obama smoking crack and laughing hysterically. It is old and he apparently doesn't use anymore so that is why it might not impact. Even so, Bush got slugged by the 17 year old DUI.
Video number two is the hated "Whitey" video. Since this is not the candidate, but the candidate's wife, it should have no bearing on the voting.
Anyway, we will just have to see.
If these reports are true—and I'll believe it when I see it—they're releasing them too late. They should have been dropped no latter than Friday for maximum effect.
I think people are just disappointed that there has been no October surprise—or maybe after the wild ride this election has been we just can't believe that it's not going to go out on a very bizarre turn.
I think Nate makes an excellent point about the tightening coming from some undecideds breaking late for McCain rather previously Obama voters changing their minds. I will be very surprised (and very angry) if my home state of PA goes red.
On an interesting personal note, my aunt (a flower child if ever there were one) who has lived in Spain for twenty years and this year did not get her absentee ballot somehow is flying into Pittsburgh to vote and renting a car so she can help GOTV and drive people to the polls. Woohoo!
Const - John McCain's nickname in the Sarah Palin camp, because he's always constipated.
I've been in PENNSYLVANIA this whole week for McCain...and guess what? They're voting MCCAIN, not HUSSEIN!
The PUMAS are all riled up. The racists are ready. The anti-socialists are coming. MCCAIN will WIN PENNSYLVANIA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Also, if indeed undies are breaking for McCain, as Nate suggested... then they're as dumb a group of people that exist in America.
Check CNN best political team predictions for Tuesday:
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2008/11/02/strategists-predict-obama-victory-big-gains-for-democrats/
RE NC DATA
Go to this site:
http://www.sboe.state.nc.us/
THis is put out by the state of NC
Go also here
http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
This is CNN
http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2004/pages/results/president/
This cover the data for 2004.
nickpp wrote:
I have already mentioned my reasons for BHO losing a tight race.
Yes, and the summary is that all polling is wrong, and your "gut feeling" is supreme.
We can't argue with your "gut feeling".
We just tend to ignore it.
It's not 2004 anymore.
petekent said...MCCAIN will STEAL the election just like BUSH did. HAHAHAHAHA!
I seriously doubt that a presidency
by theft is highly unlikely. Too
many eyes watching for theft to
occur. Either substance (Obama) or
fear (McCain) will be the deciding
factor.
Not sure which one will ultimately
prevail, but one will.
Good luck to your candidate.
Go 'O' Go
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