The state of Alaska is now reporting that Ted Stevens has 118,602 votes to Mark Begich's 117,631, a gap of 971 ballots. This incorporates 28,519 ballots which have been counted since this morning.
Prior to today, Stevens' lead over Begich had been 3,257 votes, with the state of Alaska having reported that about 90,000 votes remained to be counted. Although some of those votes will be thrown out (such as duplicate votes when the voter both sent in an absentee ballot and came to the polling place), there are still plenty of votes remaining to be counted, and Begich is making up ground at a sufficient pace that he appears more likely than not to surpass Stevens.
A significant number of additional votes will be counted before close of business today, although approximately 8 of Alaska's 40 house districts won't finalize their counting process until Friday at the earliest. The areas that will report late consist mostly of rural, Begich-friendly districts (contrary to our earlier reporting, Begich performed quite well in rural Alaska; his weaknesses were in the Anchorage Suburbs and the Mat-Su Valley).
11.12.2008
Stevens' Lead Shrinks to 971 Votes, With Many Yet to be Counted
@ 6:28 PM
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You write that "The area that will report late consist mostly of rural, Begich-friendly districts." Aren't the rural districts more Stevens-friendly?
Cripes (in a good way). I was hoping the Democrats in the Senate could finally give Lieberman the boot. He may be needed after all.
Thanks for the update.
My hunch is that Steven's lead will continue to narrow and may even be overturned. The reason I say that is because 538's final poll averages for Alaska were McCain - 56%, Obama - 42%. The results until today were Mccain - 61%, Obama - 36%. I think those numbers will shift towards 538's final poll average as the uncounted votes are tallied, which should also mean an improving result for Begich in the Senate race.
Rid us of the criminal!
60 for dems still alive.
Knowing that many (but not knowing how many) Alaskans spend winter in the lower 48, I wonder what the Stevens/Begich breakdown is among this group. I would imagine many absentee ballots being mailed in from this group. I would also tend to think this group would be more likely to reject a felon, but who knows?
I too wonder about the assumption of rural districts being Begich friendly. I've said it before and I'll say it again, Stevens is pretty popular with the Native community up here, and for good reason, he has done a lot of good things for them over the years.
I suppose it depends on WHICH rural districts we are talking about...
I could've sworn all of Alaska was rural, except for the couple cities.
wv: nophil
Guess I'm wrong.
The big question is exactly when most absentee ballots were cast with regard to Steven's conviction. If they were mostly cast after his conviction, he could be in trouble.
Thanks for the update, Nate. I assumed that as rural Americans generally vote more Republican and Begich was mayor of Anchorage, that Stevens would do much better in rural areas.
Furthermore, I am terribly interested in how common it is for people to be registered in multiple states (or how common it is to vote twice; for example I moved from WA to CA where I registered and voted for Kerry in 2004 but when I moved back to WA I was still listed as registered in my home county). How difficult is it to vote in multiple states and are part-Alaskans more likely to do this? I can't imagine it is very easy for Secretaries of State to compare their voter rolls against another state.
Sweet merciful Zeus, that's a relief.
So Stevens does best in the Mat-Su valley, Palin's home turf, huh? Figures. I guess criminal politicians appeal to all the meth addicts there.
This is good news.
Regarding Alaskan rural voters, my father, who lived in Alaska for several years, has said that Alaska is unique in that most of the voters there in cities are fairly conservative, while the rural voters are fairly progressive.
I have a theory as to why the polling was so off in this race. After the conviction, Stevens was very unpopular as the pools showed. But at the last minute, someone realized that if Stevens won, he would be kicked out. Thus paving the was for a senator Palin. Perhaps all those people didn't vote for Stevens, but really they voted for Palin for senate.
please God save us from Palin in the Senate.
You can't count out the Nick Begich factor in Mark's rural results. Rep. Nick Begich was extremely popular in rural Alaska, and that's likely reflected in his son's results in those areas.
Cripes (in a good way). I was hoping the Democrats in the Senate could finally give Lieberman the boot. He may be needed after all.
No, he isn't. It's not like the 51-seat majority in 2006; you need 60 votes on each bill to overcome a filibuster, not 60 members of your caucus. The Dems will inevitably put that vote together with Lieberman on some domestic issues where he's more in line with them, and with moderate Republicans on foreign policy issues where he's not. They don't have to give him a chairmanship to get that, and he's amply proven that being given a chairmanship doesn't make him more reliable in siding with the Democrats.
They don't want to piss him off and make him more likely to vote against them out of spite, but they don't really gain anything by pandering to him, especially if the price is giving him a committee with subpoena power and oversight of the Executive Branch.
Stevens' lead at the moment - with these new figures - is 0.39%, so that would mean an automatic recount, being less than 0.5%, unless Stevens pulls ahead once again.
Always a great statistician, but sometimes a lousy writer.
Look at this phrase (ughh): "that he appears more likely than not to surpass Stevens."
How about removing all the Palinese and simply writing
"that he appears likely to surpass Stevens."?
Nate is right. According to the figures and map supplied by the Anchorage Daily News (www.adn.com), Begich was winning the already-counted election day vote in Anchorage, Juneau, and most of the state's remotest rural areas, while Stevens was winning in suburban areas surrounding Anchorage and in the (relatively densely populated, for Alaska) corridor between Anchorage and Fairbanks. The Begich people think most of the absentee votes are from the remote rural areas and their strongholds in Anchorage and Juneau where they waged a strong early-voting campaign, much of it by mailed-in absentee ballots. It's looking good for Begich at the moment.
Nate is correct. Rural Alaska leans Democratic, and on election day at least Begich won most of the rural precincts. Go to www.adn.com and scroll down until you see the little red/blue map, for an idea of how the vote broke out geographically.
Stevens is more popular in the Bush than a generic republican, but Begich is the first serious competitor he's had in years, uh make that decades. Ever?
In most years the Rs have a slight advantage in absentee voting because of the military, but this year there was such a push for early voting by the Obama and Begich campaign I think that effect will be swamped. There is no real distinction between absentee and early balloting other than that absentee is done by mail and the early ballots are cast at the normal precinct office. Within I think 20 days of the election you can do either one.
I'm amazed Nate has this posted already; within about 20 minutes of when the Div. of Elections issued its update.
Interesting. If this is not close (and it appears from the number left to count it won't be), then no recount, correct?
So with Franken at least reasonably expected to win, a full-out effort (despite the cheating of the R SOS in Ga.) also possibly giving us the Senate seat there, and with, if he is as smart as everyone knows he is, at least Collins if not Snowe as well appointed to significant positions within the Obama administration--and an even chance of getting Spector to switch parties, as well as an effort (with which I disagree, but it's Obama's preference) to keep "Joe the McCain Supporter" in the D column, we could end up with 62-63 D's?
I know (as a liberal--which is not a perjorative, no matter how much the ever-less-consequential R's think it is) BHO will govern too much toward the center for me personally. But unlike some of the wingnut R posters here (you can tell them; they throw around the word "moonbat" and never really add to a cogent discussion), I can accept something not the best for me as still being good (for the party) & especially the country. And having that great a majority in the Senate, the large majority in the House, the Good Will of the people (approval rating better than Palin's is currently in Alaska), the vast majority of the country agreeing on progressive direction/issues for the country (sorry, R's), and the landslide in EVs & a nearly 10 MILLION person vote over the challenger, we should be able to get a LOT accomplished.
Whether it's enough to overcome the abysmal, made-more-terrorists-than-we-killed, worst-President-ever "cheerleader-cowboy-in-chief (truth)" record of the Bin Laden ignoring (thus 9/11 fomenting), Katrina ignoring, still-can't-think-of-anything-he-did-wrong W, we won't know for a while. But at least there's a good chance we can bring morality (we are better than them; we don't torture; we don't spy on our own citizens; we are a country of laws), openness (what did Cheney promise the oil companies), honesty (Plame; Iraq; Iran; AG's office...), history (e-mails? what e-mails?) back to America's conscience.
The freeper trolls here are jokes, reminiscent of the roaches in a Raid commercial.
As someone who gave W. full support right after 9/11 only to see it cynically discarded, it would be good for them to give Barack support until he makes the same number/level of mistakes the current C-i-C has. If they have either the integrity or the cojones to do so. Which, sadly, has been sorely lacking in their posts.
Rational & reasonable discussion of any topic welcome. More of the already-rejected above, which I've read WAY too often the last few months from a handful of R's--never mind.
Sorry for feeding the trolls; hopefully this will bring at least a couple of them in with reasonable discussion points. I'd enjoy debating tax policy with Real Joe (whatever happened to him? Hopefully still lurking.).
And of course, stats, esp. as related to votes still being counted, would be **most** on-topic. Other stuff occupying the largest part of the most recent back-and-forths? Eh, not so much.
wv: solferyt - pet of the sun god?
I still have difficulty seeing the solid phalanx of vicious white trash up in Alaska turning on Stevens. He's their natural leader, a man so corrupt and twisted he has to screw his pants on in the morning.
Surely the felony conviction hurt him some, but Alaska natives I've talked to were all universally convinced that he couldn't lose. That the fix was in.
I don't know what to make of these reports that Stevens is losing ground. Still, it seems likely that Begich will come up short if he's closed 2,286 votes after 28,519 ballots were counted. He'd need another 12,114 votes to break even -- at the same rate.
Doesn't sound too probable, but then the rate can obviously change.
Stevens is croaked anyway, no matter which way the voting happens since the Senate will be forced to throw him out in January. No way the Republican party wants to carry the albatross of a convicted felon for the next 6 years.
The only difference is whether Begich will get another 6 years which will stuff Sarah Palin's anointed procession into the U.S. Senate to grease her 2012 Presidential run, or whether Stevens will win, then be forced to resign in a blizzard of humiliation and foul threats -- which will allow Palin to neatly step into the gap.
My guess>: Say hello to Senator Caribou Barbie!
Well, this is good news. It looks to me like Begich has a pretty good chance of catching up. Does anybody know what the runoff election in Georgia's results are supposed to look like?
Given the great trend for Begich, is there a chance for Berkowitz as well?
Cugel said "...Still, it seems likely that Begich will come up short if he's closed 2,286 votes after 28,519 ballots were counted. He'd need another 12,114 votes to break even -- at the same rate."
There are more than 60,000 still uncounted.
Snow1000:
Unfortunately, Chambliss will probably win the runoff. Most of that Libertarian vote will probably go to him, and Democratic turnout in Southern runoffs is usually less than what it is on the first election day - this is likely to be ESPECIALLY true without Barack Obama on the ticket to increase black turnout.
When I re-read the post, this jumped out at me "The state of Alaska is now reporting that Ted Stevens has 118,602 votes to Mark Begich's 117,631."
Is there really another state in the union, so completely twisted that 118,000 people would turn out on election day and vote for a 6 time convicted felon?
Well, parts of the South like Tennessee and Louisiana I suppose, but really! It's the 21st century! What ARE these people thinking up there? Just amazing is all.
Cugel:
I don't know what to make of these reports that Stevens is losing ground. Still, it seems likely that Begich will come up short if he's closed 2,286 votes after 28,519 ballots were counted. He'd need another 12,114 votes to break even -- at the same rate.
Doesn't sound too probable, but then the rate can obviously change.
If I'm reading this from Nate correctly:
This incorporates 28,519 ballots which have been counted since this morning.
Prior to today, Stevens' lead over Begich had been 3,257 votes, with the state of Alaska having reported that about 90,000 votes remained to be counted...
There are more than 61,000 votes left to be counted (90,000-28,519.) Sounds to me like he's got your 12,114 about five times over. Am I misreading something here?
Does anyone know when (what time) Alaska will post the tally of all the votes it gets counted today?
BTW, This site doesn't seem to like to let me leave comments (this is my third try), is that a Blogger issue?
Berkowitz is gaining ground but not nearly fast enough. He is still over 15,500 votes behind.
As far as the Senate races:
I put Begich at 85% WP
Franken at 52% (h/t Nate's preelection prediction)
And Martin probably has no better than a 20% chance at pulling it off.
So, it seems we've gotten the Alaska seat. I wonder if Berkowitz has a chance to pull even as well. He's behind by about 15,000 votes, so he'd need to get about 75% of the remaining ballots. Possible, but not probable.
"Blogger Bob X said...
There are more than 60,000 still uncounted."
60,000 to go eh? That does sound bad for Stevens! Any time you are leading the race nothing good can come of counting more votes.
And the more there are, the more the chances of an upset.
That would require me to change my thinking. I just naturally assumed that Begich was screwed and Alaska LIKES felons.
Or as Ryzard Kapuchinski wrote in his biography of Hallie Selassie: The Emperor: "I cannot remember a single case of our glorious Emperor bending a notable's head into the dust over a case of corruption. Let him enjoy his corruption, so long as he displays his loyalty!"
Looks good for Begich -- reducing Sen. Tubes' 3257 lead to 971 after only about one-third of the outstanding vote was counted. Unfortunately, things don't look so rosy for Berkowitz -- he only reduced his 16,939 vote deficit to 15,667. At that rate, Begich will comfortably pass Stevens, but Berkowitz won't get close to Wright.
Oh well, if the Dems are to take only one, the Senate seat is definitely preferable.
@ Cugel,
A more pertenent question is...Does anyone know another state where you can get elected to the US senate with only about 125,000 votes! That is close to the number that Obama was getting at some of his rallies!
I am going to go check the WY numbers...
Meanwhile our friend Al in MN has 1,211,359 votes and still hasn't wraped it up. That is more than 10 times as many as either AK candidate now has! MN isn't even a big state and there was a serious third party candidate (who also got more than either AK candidate!)
RE: RURAL ALASKA
The problem with assuming that Stevens should be popular in 'rural' Alaska, is that Alaska has a different definition of 'rural' than the rest of the country. Areas that we Alaskans consider 'urbanized,' rest of the country would consider 'rural' (and, as such, are Republican strongholds). The areas being referred to as 'rural' are actually the 'bush' (off the road system) which is way beyond rural, and usually Democrat friendly. Cities are also Democrat friendly, but only a small part of Anchorage can be considered a city, the rest is 'rural' or 'suburban.'
More more details on the regional vote breakdown, check out this map:
http://media.adn.com/smedia/2008/11/07/12/7senateVote.source.prod_affiliate.7.pdf
The really amazing thing would be if Alaska turned on Senator Felon after all! Who'd have thunk it?
Still it's shocking that it can be so close AFTER Stevens was convicted on 6 felony counts! What does it take up there?
Does he have to rape and sodomize a nun on national TV? Would that be enough?
Rural vote -- for those wondering, check out the map of the Senate vote as of Nov. 4 from the Anchorage Daily News. It shows that Begich performed better than Stevens in most of the state, including the Bush.
Go Mark! Save us from the embarrassment of a Senator Felon! Save us from the even worse embarrassment of a potential Senator Palinocchio!
Newly counted votes:
Begich 51%
Stevens 43%
I got these from a quick spreadsheet comparison of
the previous tallies to the new ones.
Begich is up +8% over Stevens in these
newly-counted votes, it appears. Someone
check my math, please...
Here is the raw data... Will look like
junk as a cut-and-paste, but... Looks
like Begich has a good shot, with about
35,000 more votes to count.
CANDIDATE WAS NOW +/- % +/- % OF NEW
Begich, Mark DEM 103337 117631 14294 0.13832412398 0.51088316237
Bird, Bob AI 8919 10117 1198 0.13431999103 0.04281782766
Gianoutsos, Ted NA 807 950 143 0.17719950434 0.00511097609
Haase, Fredrick D. LIB 1516 1766 250 0.16490765172 0.00893527288
Stevens, Ted REP 106594 118602 12008 0.112651744 0.42917902713
Write-in Votes 540 626 86 0.15925925926 0.00307373387
[27979 NEW VOTES TALLIED]
John said...
Begich will comfortably pass Stevens, but Berkowitz won't get close to Wright.
---
I trust you meant Don YOUNG (R), and not Don WRIGHT (AI)!!
Berkowitz is comfortably in second place ahead of the Alaska Independence party candidate!
Make that more like ~60,000 more to count. If this keeps up, Begich will win.
Cugel said...
Does he have to rape and sodomize a nun on national TV? Would that be enough?
He'd just tell them afterwards that he was drilling for more oil, and they'd give him a pass.
Via a secondhand source in the Begich campaign:
"The gap is only 40 votes, with 33,000 ones counted."
I loved the AK press release suggesting that they still had a lot of time to legally count the ballots, but were going to do so quickly in the interest of the parties! WTF!
Also great that they have such an inept way of distributing absentee ballots that they literally have to check to make sure people don't vote twice!
AK is not a poor state. Get your damn act together!
The only region of the country that showed increased support for the Republican party during the late election was Appalachia, where I am from. I was encouraged by the fact that 1/4 of the voters in my home county of Carter County, TN, voted for Mr. Obama. The other 3/4 remain in what one could call a state of nature, with their social and political consciousness little raised from that of our primitive ancestors. Let the economy collapse and unjust wars be launched, as long as the candidate professes a belief in a personal God, talks about opposing abortion, hates gays will all his heart, though brothers, let us never forget that they are God’ children too, just condemned to Hell.
As an Alaskan here is how statewide votes normally go:
In the Southeast, Ketchican votes more conservatively, with the rest going more liberal and Juneau always voting democratic.
Anchorage (my city) is normally a toss up there are very liberal areas (western anchorage) and conservative areas (southern/hillside). The suburbs of Anchorage (Chugiak/Eagle River) vote republican.
The Mat-Su valley (home of Palin) always goes Republican. This trend continues northward along the road system to Fairbanks, another republican stronghold.
The Bush (rural areas) always go democratic (yes unlike the rest of the country, we are a bit different). The Democrats position on subsistence rights and long history of protecting native rights make most democrats popular.
Statewide elections are mostly decided by the Anchorage vote, as it is the largest voting block and has the most mix. Whether or not Begich wins is because he was popular enough in Anchorage to get enough voters into the booths. Oh yeah and the trial, but as you have all seen Ted Stevens is extremely popular and a significant portion of the population loves him, and knows he's corrupt and doesn't care.
These close races (Franken, Chambliss, Stevens) are a blessing for the post-election depression. And they underscore the fact that your vote matters!
MattW wrote: A more pertenent question is...Does anyone know another state where you can get elected to the US senate with only about 125,000 votes! That is close to the number that Obama was getting at some of his rallies!
Possibly Wyoming, Vermont, North Dakota? Those three states all have smaller populations than Alaska but, like Alaska (or any other state, per the U.S. Constitution) have 2 Senators.
I've done a lot of reading on Sen. Stevens career, & have come to the opinion that he originally came to Alaska (prior to it becoming a state) in hopes of becoming the big fish in a little pond. Which he certainly did, first playing a important part in lobbying Congress (illegally, in fact, from an executive office in Eisenhower's Dept. of the Interior) for Alaska statehood, then in running for office until Gov. Wally Hickel appointed him to finish out a Senator term, from which ever since he's had the incumbent's advantage. I wrote up earlier parts of his career on Wikipedia last year; didn't finish up because I got tuckered out from Wikipedia editing.
Nate, this is a very strange but interesting business and I hope you'll have the opportunity to comment further, but notice (and please check my math):
The new ballot count is coming in very close to what you projected for the Alaska election. The new ballots give McCain-Palin a 12.8% advantage, reasonably close to the 14.2% you projected, and a lot closer than the 25% margin reported after election day. Similarly, the new ballots favor Begich over Stevens by 8.7%, less than the 11.3% you projected -- but if you drop the Research 2000 poll as an outlier, then these votes are ALSO pretty close to your original projections.
So ... why would the new votes match the Alaska polling, when the votes counted on election day did not? Two guesses here. One is that there was a large unmeasured move to the Republicans that took place in Alaska right before the election, and the absentee/early votes were cast before this move. This theory strikes me as unlikely. We saw no similar move in any other state. I might expect the vote for Senator Stevens to fluctuate significantly as Alaskans absorbed the news of his 7 felony convictions, but I would not expect the vote for McCain or Don Young to move with the Stevens vote in lock step.
The second theory is that something strange happened to the election day vote ... something affecting turnout, or for those with a conspiratorial bent, something involving vote tampering or fraud.
Let's go back to the first theory. If the Alaskan electorate swung hard towards Republicans in the last days of the election, we should see evidence of this in the final count of absentee ballots. My understanding is that Alaska is currently counting ballots received prior to election day, so these would be ballots completed relatively early. The absentee ballots cast closest to election day are probably not going to be counted until next week.
Please comment Mr. Silver.
The illegal role Stevens played in Alaska statehood -- to show this isn't the only time he was a bad bad boy.
This is from a portion that I wrote last year from the Wikipedia article on Stevens, where Stevens openly boasted of illegally lobbying Congress from his office at Interior (go to the article itself for the sources cited):
Stevens also took part—illegally—in lobbying for the statehood bill,[23] working closely with the Alaska Statehood Committee from his office at Interior.[23] Stevens hired Margaret Atwood, daughter of Anchorage Times publisher Robert Atwood,[23] who was chairman of the Alaska Statehood Committee,[26] to work with him in the Interior Department. "We were violating the law," Stevens told a researcher in an October 1977 oral history interview for the Eisenhower Library. "[W]e were lobbying from the executive branch, and there's been a statute against that for a long time.... We more or less, I would say, masterminded the House and Senate attack from the executive branch."[23]
Vote tampering or fraud in a State so close to Russia?
Say it ain't so Larry!
spam210wal:
Don't you think that if Obama personally goes down to Georgia to campaign with Martin, he might be able to help get out the black vote once again?
AndyJS:
That is possible, but don't bet too much on it. Obama has a lot on his hands, and since Chambliss would be the favorite even if black turnout stayed the same, it could really damage his political capital if he invested himself heavily in this only to lose.
@Mel,
In WY which is the only of the three (VT, ND, WY) that had seats up in this election both winning candidates got a LOT more than either AK candidate is going to get. Though to be fair the combined vote of the top two candidates in the WY races are not much higher than the AK total between Begich and Stevens
Enzi 184k
Barrasso 178k
What's the bet Harry Reid makes a last minute intervention to stop the counting of ballots, citing the need to preserve the Old Boy's Club?
Harry Reid must be shitting himself at the probability of a filibuster-proof majority. As far as Reid's concerned, that cannot happen. There's important bills that have to be killed, dammit.
i still dont get why the votes havent been counted. it has been a week and it is not as though there are millions of votes.
is this the kind of mavericky state governing that palin was bragging about? im not impressed.
Begich now ahead by 3 votes!
http://elect.alaska.net/data/results.pdf
As a "bush" Alaskan that's having his votes (and most of his neighbors' votes) for Begich finally counted this week, let me just say thanks to everyone for still paying attention. Even with all the "dogsled" and snowbilly-red-state jokes I've been forced to read for the last 8 days ;-)
And yes, we'll be happy to take the bullet and keep Caribou Barbie confined here in AK if we can avoid the special election...that is, unless we can manage to get a recall up and running. Unlikely considering that even though her approval has dropped 30 points, it's still around 60% last I heard.
Obama going to personally campaign in GA would be a TERRIBLE idea. Fortunately he is smart enough to recognize the terribleness of the idea and will not go.
He will try to help Martin in other ways though.
We need to kick Reid to the curb, seriously. Put in Clinton. Hell, anyone is better than Reid. ESPECIALLY if he doesn't kick Lieberman off his chairmanship.
Also, while Georgia will inevitably not get as much black turnout, neither will other demographic groups. For example, old tradition people who always show up for election day, but won't care/know about a run-off. It's really a toss up, and I think we need some polls there. Chambliss asking every republican in the book to come campaign for him shows he's worried as well.
Begich 125,019
Stevens 125,016
OK STOP COUNTING NOW!
I would question the supposed 28,519 ballots that this update includes since the Begich total has only increased around 4000 votes. He was at 113k and change before they started counting today.
Rusty,
NO, you are wrong.
Before today...
Begich 103.337
Stevens 106,594
Currently...
Begich 125,019
Stevens 126,016
Stpepper you beat me! Awesome that Sevens is going down! Too bad that Obama won't win, but hopefully he will do better than any democrat in Alaska since 1968
mattw is right -
stop counting now!
Check out the Kodiak Daily Mirror
poll on the question "Have your feelings about Gov. Palin changed?"
This is how poll questions should be asked...not!
http://www.kodiakdailymirror.com/
3:30:26 PM (Alaska time) update:
Begich: 125019
Stevens: 125016
Begich up by 3. Yowza.
Cugel:
"Is there really another state in the union, so completely twisted that 118,000 people would turn out on election day and vote for a 6 time convicted felon? "
Come on. Some of you people are NOT THINKING CLEARLY!!!!!
Most of them are NOT voting for a '6-time convicted felon'. )Well, 7 if oyu want to be accurate)
They are voting for a SENATE SEAT TO BE RETAINED BY A REPUBLICAN.
The ONLY way they can vote to KEEP THE CHANCES ALLIVE that a Republican wins the seat is to ELECT STEVENS. That way, the ONLY way the Democrats can win the seat is to win a special election WITH ANOTHER REpublican candidate on the ticket.
They are obviously voting for PARTY, not CANDIDATE.
It really isn;t all that difficult a concept to grasp.
(eyeroll)
Begich is ahead! This is so great. Now we just need Franken. Woo hoo.
Why the Alaska vote's taking so long
livemild wrote: i still dont get why the votes havent been counted. it has been a week and it is not as though there are millions of votes.
Read this article from today's Anchorage Daily News. It should answer your question. Most important bits:
But the division is taking extra care with ballots this year after having discovered that more than two dozen people voted twice in the August primary. Most voted an absentee ballot, then showed up at their polling place and voted again.
So workers have been busy matching names on outstanding ballots to polling-place rolls from Election Day, when voters were required to show identification and sign in, Fenumiai said.
That work has been completed in 32 of Alaska's 40 election districts, including the state's population centers: Anchorage, Fairbanks, Juneau, the Kenai Peninsula and Gov. Sarah Palin's home territory, the Matanuska-Susitna Borough, which includes Wasilla and Palmer.
Early this week, the elections office was waiting for precinct rolls to arrive from parts of rural Alaska, including the state's southeast panhandle, Kodiak Island and other communities off the highway system such as Western and Northern Alaska.
The most remote areas do not have daily mail service, which slows the process, Fenumiai said.
Bush Alaska (no relative whatsoever to our current president) is not accessible by road, but only air, boat, and/or snowmachine. Besides not being daily, mail service which is mostly by plane can sometimes get weathered in or weathered out. It's already winter in Alaska, so the weather is playing even a bigger factor with mail service in the Bush right now.
3 votes! Mandate!
Interestingly...
With this most recent update Berkowitz actually lost a little ground!!!
So Begich picked up 974 votes against Stevens while Berkowitz lost about 200 votes against Young. So a bunch of Young/Begich voters...hmmm. I would guess that is a Republican area not impressed with Felons for Senate? Kind of strange...Thoughts?
Re: Voting for a convicted felon.
While I almost never stand up for the Republican party, ever, as much as people don't like to admit it, the party of the candidate does matter. Okay, so Stevens is a convicted felon, but if you truly believe in conservative republican principles, what choice do you have? You can't vote for the Democrat, so you vote for the felon with the hopes he is ousted and replaced by another conservative Republican.
It is the party that shapes most of our policies, not the person. I could never vote for a Republican, because I believe Democratic principles, no matter how much I dislike the Democratic candidate. There are a few exceptions, but that is generally true.
gayithacan wrote: Most of them are NOT voting for a '6-time convicted felon'. )Well, 7 if oyu want to be accurate)
They are voting for a SENATE SEAT TO BE RETAINED BY A REPUBLICAN.
The ONLY way they can vote to KEEP THE CHANCES ALLIVE that a Republican wins the seat is to ELECT STEVENS. That way, the ONLY way the Democrats can win the seat is to win a special election WITH ANOTHER REpublican candidate on the ticket.
Exactly. And this is exactly the reasoning that many Stevens supporters, not to mention Stevens himself, were promoting after his conviction.
Interesting to see Stevens lose his lead. Well, I thought the opinion polls couldn't be as wrong as they initially appeared to be.
I just noticed that the Alaskan House race is getting closer as well. Before today, Young was 16,939 votes ahead. Now that's been reduced to 15,710. That's a reduction from 52-44 to 51-45.
Current Vote Count:
Begich, Mark DEM 125019
Stevens, Ted REP 125016
He's taken the lead - just!
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/08general/data/results.htm
Begich up by 3 friggin votes...holy sh!t
Why were the polls so badly wrong in AK? It's a HUGE rural state and very difficult for pollsters to accurately sample.
Many rural areas don't have easy access to land-line phones and can't be reached by pollsters at all.
It's a tough place to poll and there were pockets of Stevens supporters they just didn't reach out there.
It's radically unlike any part of the lower 48, excpept the most backward parts of Appalachia -- rural Tennessee, WV, KY, etc. where the communities are isolated.
But I have difficulty believing that even rural Appalachia is as isolated and backward as Alaska.
Dear lord, I just looked at the results page and said to myself, "Wait, that's not a 971-vote gap... HOLY CRAP, HE'S UP THREE VOTES!"
Seriously, three votes? Ridiculous. Come on, Begich!
Stevens now losing his ass by 3 votes as of 7:09 PM Central.
thanks mel for answering my question
the article made it seem like they might get through the 90,000 today.
but i guess some absentees are still floating in.
Alaska has turned blue on CNN's Senate map of the state:
http://edition.cnn.com/ELECTION/2008/results/individual/#mapSAK
Meanwhile, theuptake.org is live-blogging the Minnesota recount. According to recent comments the gap is now 204 after some upticks for everyone, but the results may not be reflected on the SoS page "until the State Canvassing Board accepts them next week." There are other relevant comments there---great junkie food! :-)
WV "irasta": an Apple music product that plays all-Marley, all the time...
This just in! Begich is up by THREE VOTES with 35,000 left to count.
Wouldn't it be a supreme irony for Ted Stevens's career to end with a 3 vote loss?
That being said, I'd like to see a bit more daylight between the candidates after they're all counted.
OK I overstated Berkowitz losses. Still...
In one update...
Begich gained 974 votes against Stevens.
Berkowitz lost 43 votes against Young.
That still seems odd to me!
"Blogger GayIthacan said...
Come on. Some of you people are NOT THINKING CLEARLY!!!!!
Most of them are NOT voting for a '6-time convicted felon'. )Well, 7 if you want to be accurate)
They are voting for a SENATE SEAT TO BE RETAINED BY A REPUBLICAN.
The ONLY way they can vote to KEEP THE CHANCES ALIVE that a Republican wins the seat is to ELECT STEVENS. That way, the ONLY way the Democrats can win the seat is to win a special election WITH ANOTHER REpublican candidate on the ticket.
They are obviously voting for PARTY, not CANDIDATE.
It really isn;t all that difficult a concept to grasp."
That wouldn't explain why Stevens won the primary when he was under indictment and scheduled for trial on SEVEN (corrected!) felony counts!
Try and run that one by voters anywhere in the lower 48: "It's true that I will shortly stand trial on 7 counts of felony bribery and influence peddling, but vote for me anyway!"
In almost any other state a candidate under felony indictment would NOT win a primary!
It's not scheming by AK Republicans to hold a seat -- it's Stevens loyalists voting for him because he's been an AK institution for decades. They just don't care that he's corrupt if he continues to bring the federal dollars to AK.
He's built up a lot of loyalty over the years with people due to his endless patronage and earmarks he delivered, and they aren't going to easily turn on him over a little case of bribery!
Relax, folks, there's still 10,000 votes to count just today. And then there are still thousands more votes to count before it's all over.
What's left to count
More than 44,000 have been counted so far, per an update on Anchorage's local public radio station just now.
Per the Anchorage Daily News in its news alert announcing the 3-vote lead by Begich:
The elections division still has over 10,000 ballots left to count today and thousands more through next week, but the latest numbers show Mark Begich leading Sen. Ted Stevens 125,019 to 125,016.
The new numbers, reflecting nearly 43,000 absentee ballots counted today, are from all over the state. Election night, Ted Stevens led the Democratic Begich by about 3,000 votes.
The state today is counting a total of about 60,000 absentee and questioned ballots.
The Division of Elections said it expects to count roughly 35,000 additional absentee and questioned ballots over the next week.
In 2006, Wyoming Sen Craig Thomas won with 135,000 votes - and he got 70% of the vote.
There is always a lower turnout in off year elections.
NEW THREAD
I don’t think for a moment that Palin want the Senate Seat and probably doesn’t even want the headache of appointing someone. Again, we seem obsessed this week with her. Could it be that the novelty of Obama’s election has warn off already?
Link: http://www.salon.com/opinion/paglia/2008/11/12/palin/index.html
Camille Paglia’s latest piece in Salon is perhaps the most balanced summary account of where we are and why as I have seen. In a magnificent sweep she takes us from the improbable excitement attendant on Obama’s victory to the improbable vilification that Sarah Palin was exposed to on the national scene.
As she has all season, Paglia insists on seeing things for the way they are and has suspended judgment based on policy and has filtered this campaign through her own peculiar lens of character.
She has enthusiastically embraced Palin's persona, while expressing disapproval, mostly mild, of Obama’s own turn on the stage.
Camille is sympathetic to the double standard and extensive scrutiny that Palin got, as compared with the free pass Obama got. That the attacks seemed most resonate within the councils of the educated and elite made it all worse. Talk about your culture wars!
I mean, really, how Bourgeois!
In fact, Palin, as Paglia points out, by her very example has advanced the cause of women’s rights by showcasing just how a successful woman can be wife and mother: She gets help from her Husband! Could it be that hubby is willing to pitch in for his successful wife provided she retains her feminine charm, looks and guile? She competes as a woman as an equal. This may be Palin's greatest strength.
That and her cross-cultural appeal. Her example can be as inspiring and empowering to the working class woman as it is to the aspiring female executive. I wonder if it can be said that Hillary Clinton inspires so broadly. While HRC’s appeal is undeniable, I am not sure she is as personally inspiring to the working class woman as Clinton.
Camille Paglia is stunningly perceptive to see how Palin’s appeal could even extend to the Third World. Imagine then the reputation of America and what it would have been said to have accomplished: First bringing Democracy to the World and then liberating half of its citizens.
Breathtaking!
It is hard to read Paglia’s column and observe Palin’s coverage during this week of her self-control of her media exposure, without thinking that it is she, not Obama who is on the ascendancy at the moment.
As I see it, Obama has been cut all his favors, while Palin got no slack. America loves a comeback. Stand aside for the Million Dollar Baby!
Did anyone see Frontline last night?
Lee Atwater was profiled in a doc. called "Boogie Man" (double enten, because he was a creep as well as a blues musician)
The take away... Republicans starting with Nixon through W are a severe mongrel breed of political criminals. Pretty much all of them. That especially includes the big kahuna Reagan.
Led to office by hatchet men... Haldeman, Erlichman, Rollins, Atwater, Rove... who are accomplices to the ruin of this nation.
Until the Repubs of that era are crushed- that includes Chamblis, Stevens, Coleman - the US will never progress.
CRUSH THEM. THEY ARE IMPEDIMENTS TO PROGRESS WE NEED.
PS- Atwater died of brain tumor in 1991. (On March 5, 1990, Lee Atwater collapsed during a fundraising breakfast on behalf of Senator Phil Gramm, how's that for a clutch of scoundrels) no doubt God's retribution for the Dukakis campaign... He appologized to Dukakis for his deeds on his death bed (although Mary Matlin downplayed that in the show because she never gives a fucking inch)
We are hostages to the current breed of Republicans... we progress IN SPITE OF THEM. NOT BECAUSE OF THEM.
All good Americans pray for their demise. (and for their brain tumors)
Wow...
PeteKent is a fucking moron.
On another note, The National Enquirer is breaking a story on Cindy McCain's affair, with photos of her kissing another, less wrinkly and impotent, man.
http://www.nationalenquirer.com/world_exclusive_cindy_mccain_caught_cheating_on_sen_john_mccain_with_other_man/celebrity/65736
A person reading the Enquirer calling me a moron!
My Alaskan source now says that Begich is up by 400 with votes still being counted.
Andy JS, the way they count these in Alaska is to count the ones that arrived by Election Day first, and then to move on to the late arriving votes. So the remaining ones are likely to be post-conviction.
Why not revoke Alaskan statehood and revert it to terrotorial status?
A move to do that MIGHT just get their freaking attention up there. Both Alaska's senators would lose their jobs and the state would lose its leverage for wads of pork.
I mean, a state that's as coddled and subsidized by oil company and federal money as Alaska is, ought to at least be able to run an election. I mean, there are plenty of places where they can hand count 90,000 paper ballots in ONE NIGHT! Those ballots were SUPPOSED to be where they could be counted on election night!
Heck with 'em. Revoke their statehood and have Obama appoint, say, John Kerry as territorial governor to piss off the righties. Then appoint Peter Fitzgerald as US Attorney.
The feds have done massive corruption investigations that have cleaned up places like Chicago and put John Gotti out of business. Doing Alaska would be a cakewalk.
As one Chicago precinct captain told me, explaining why he would never violate the law in
a polling place: "Just one federal grand jury subpoena can ruin your whole day".
STepper wrote: Always a great statistician, but sometimes a lousy writer.
Look at this phrase (ughh): "that he appears more likely than not to surpass Stevens."
How about removing all the Palinese and simply writing
"that he appears likely to surpass Stevens."?
I disagree. "More likely than not" has a different meaning for me. It implies that the odds on something are close to 50/50, but that one outcome is slightly more favorable than another.
"Likely to" suggests "will probably happen," which is a different kettle of fish.
The use of the phrase makes the writer's intent more specific, rather than less so, which makes it the opposite of Palinesque.
Begich is now up by 814 votes. Alaska, you can stay in the union.
testing
I like the fact that the Alaska Independent candidate has 11315 votes, with Stevens currently behind 800 or so. It makes me believe in God.
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