Ever since Brett Marty started taking photographs for the site, our traffic has skyrocketed.
In October:
3.63 million unique visitors
20.57 million site visits
32.18 million pageviews
Nate and I have contributed to Brett's juggernaut as well.
Seriously, thank you everybody. Who knew a Chicago-based baseball stathead, a Commerce/Bike-based poker player and a SF-based documentary filmmaker could break through like that?
Nate and I have plenty of good ideas for after the election (above and beyond FiveThirtyEight After Dark, the porn subsidiary). Politics is going to stay interesting for a long time, and we'll be here, feeding you your goodies.
Stay tuned.
11.03.2008
Site Note
@ 9:28 AM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
185 comments
Eighth!
Sean, you and Brett and Nate have been spectacular. I'm thrilled that y'all will hang together after the election.
Thank you for all you've done.
Incidentally, I'm here for the stats, but the photos are a nice touch.
The photos and road reports were awesome. They should be complied and published as a book. I'd buy one.
Yes. I read 538 for the "pictures" ;-)
Ras: Obama 52 +1, McCain 46
Anyone else have election induced coma today? I watch to watch live numbers move like on the Iowa caucus site. I need live numbers in motion - now.
I have come to appreciate your well-written analyses, your insightful detailed articles on places and topics, your frequent updates, your humor, and your pretty pretty pictures.
Came for the stats (followed Poblano at DK), but my favorite bits have been Sean and Brett's visits to the campaign offices.
When you systematically visit offices across a wide swathe of states, you really get a feel for what's going on.
Can't wait to see what happens tomorrow and am glad you guys will be around post-Tuesday.
Well, from outside the US it seems as if the 2012 election cycle will start next thursday (perhaps Palin thinks it started last week), so don't go away...
Do you want to try your hand working through the UK polls?
If only the election could go on forever, huh?
NO, don't do it!
As Matan said, I came for the stats and analysis, but I have found Sean's writings to be compelling and Brett's photos to be both beautiful and illuminating (pun intended).
Also, for those who are needing to keep their minds off the interminable wait for the end of the voting, here's a site for you. In 2004, bettors correctly predicted ALL 50 states. Here's what they are saying for this election:
http://politics.betfair.com/
wv yestri, as in soon the Bush nightmare will be a thing of yestri.
I'm sure this has been asked and answered somewhere but why so many Republican ads on this site? Just google adsense and this is what you're getting?
fourthirtyfive.com
Because predicting ~20 races is too easy.
Sean, your "On the Road" posts are the ones I look forward to second most - just after Nate's polling updates, of course. I'm actually going into a bit of withdrawl at the moment, because you've only given us some teasers since the celebrated 72-hour push began. This is the time when those volunteers-and-field-offices posts may be even more important than the latest poll aggregation, and you're starving us!
I know there is a rush to finish up all 51 "Road to 270" posts, but I would gladly forgo the completeness of that series in return for a pulse on the GOTV operations.
Just to add my voice to the pleas for a book compiling some numbers, pictures, road to 270 and the 'On the Road' posts especially.
You guys rock my world.
xxx
PS Surely at least ONE of you is straight/single? I'm sure I'm not the only one who would make the trip over the Atlantic...
I hope Poll Dancing will be featured in your post election porn site.
I hope you do continue after 4 Nov. I've learned a lot about polling and data analysis in general. The pics make a *huge* difference. Great stuff.
I'm looking forward to your book!
wv logeti: The mythical beast who lives in your fireplace
I check this site about 10 times daily, and it helps me sleep at night. However, I think that perhaps I wouldn't be here so much if the polls were going the other way...
FiveThirtyEight after dark? You do realize that Nate's last post was at 3:30 in the morning!
Love this site.
Guys, seems like voters are breaking FOR THE CHANGE WE NEED. This Bush-nightmare might soon be over.
Put that little extra effort in this final hours. Make sure your family and friends are voting and make a final push for CHANGE.
GOTV
I agree with goreshade - publish a book for the Christmas market please! Absolutely beautiful photography.
The key differentiator for this site is the evidence based analysis. It's what distinguishes it from every hack in the business who pedals opinion as fact.
You guys have been fantastic--the first site I visit in the morning, and the last at night. Straight up, level-headed analysis. Insightful reporting from the front lines. There's nothing else out there like fivethirtyeight. Thanks a thousand times over.
I'm really looking forward to you guys taking the mantle from RCP after the election for the go-to guys for poll averages.
And I echo the sentiments about keeping things sane. I've learnt so much about how polling works (and how it doesn't from this site). Cheers.
It's been an amazing ride with you all. Appreciate the hard work Nate put in with his neat model, and all of the 'bonus' material provided.
WV: immoodel is german slang for saying 'I am a model'.
Sean and Brett, I love Nate's stats analysis, but what really brings me to this site (and cause me to recommend it to everyone in sight) are the on-the-ground reports and photos from you guys.
Your detailed portrayal of the ground games for the two campaigns is unique amongst all the coverage; I see some similar things in my weekly copy of "Newsweek," but it's not as compelling as the daily (hourly?) stuff that you produce.
Thanks for making my last few weeks terribly unproductive as I obsessively check this site all day for your work.
Congrats on the well-deserved success, guys. Though while I am sure Brett's photos contributed, I think it is more the run-up to the election that caused the big bump in traffic.
Of course, I could be wrong. :)
--
Wondering what to do after the election?
I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.
If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)
Long time reader first time commenter. Just wanted to say thanks for all the amazing work with 538.
How much of the traffic explosion is due to Brett's picture of Miss Virginia?
[wv: brabigeb - the lone county in Virgina that McPalin will win]
Sean,
came for the stats, love the commentary and Brett's work is so moving.
I want a book about the road trip with lots of the beautiful pictures and some analysis of the numbers and what moved them up and down. Ya'll's take on polling and why America has been glued to this election and the polls. How we try to use statistics to reflect the thoughts and emotions of millions of voters.
I'm sure you guys will think of lots of original ideas for a book based on all you have been doing.
:)
Don't be too impressed by those numbers. I think I'm responsible for about 30 million visits on my own :). Seriously, though, I can't say enough wonderful things about the site. Congrats on all your success!
Obama up 7% in the RCP average and still at an all all-time high at 51.2%.
Great thanks for this wonderful site and the service you provide. With a minor in quantitatave analysis (something I rarely get to use), I have been a regular visitor to 538 and can appreciate the quality work you do. I first heard about your site a month or so ago on Keith Olbermann's show.
Keep up the excellent work!
Ya, I think I am unique on every visit...
So each person is only viewing the page an average of 10 times a month?
That can't be correct; I hit the "reload" button ~5000 times a day...
Count me among your rabid fan base. I have been extremely impressed with the outstanding analysis and the well-crafted posts from all around our great country.
The great photos and the Kerouac quotes were the icing on the cake!
I've been so thankful for this site throughout the campaign. Please do continue to feed this beast beyond election day! If we can all be this engaged going forward, it will help create the kind of accountability for our officials that is critical for a successful democracy.
One factor in the long lines is how long it takes to actually vote.
On the right-hand side of the pond, we tend only to have to elect three or four people at most (for me to have to put an X in more than three boxes would mean we were having London Mayor & Assembly *and* a general election on the same day, which is more unlikely than Obama carrying Idaho). In the US, they have to elect dozens of people to federal, state and county positions and vote on a gazillion propositions to amend the law, which takes slightly more time.
I hate Sarah Palin's voice. It is the most irritating sound...
sister Sarah just finished her speech. Nothing new, nor real meaning, just hate them and love us BS.
McCain now live on XM 130...
I think you should turn this site international, and rewrite the laws of opinion polling in Europe as well!!
There are EU elections in 2009 and a UK election in 2010, and I think the model could easily be applied there also!
This site has truly become a phenomenon.
Maybe you can use this site statistical database to decipher the logic of the BCS for us politically interested college football fans? Harris Poll voters in Utah have a 53% chance of putting Penn State #1 in December and such. You'd have my unabated attention. Perhaps it's a bridge too far: how do you find logic in such an illogical system?
Way to go guys, you represent the American dream! By 2012 you should be able to reach the traffic of some pr0n sites! :)
However, I think the site's popularity isn't caused by Brett's photos alone, it might also have a bit to do with the Colbert bump, Nate's giant brain, a nearing election and the like. And let's not forget the huge number of fanatic fans who spread the link around faster than Obama spreads hope...
This is great news . . . for everybody!
i loved the photography and it has made this site unique.
it would be hard to find anything wrong with this site.
thanks -Nate Sean and Brett- you covered this election better and with more intelligence than just about anybody including the MSM.
So he is loved by the whole black community and Tuesday Night and Wed Morning you will see the 400 years of hell that African Americans have been thru erupt into a sea of happiness and love you have ever seen.
---------------------------------
My grandmother said (My family is African-American) said if Obama wins the celebration will be even larger for blacks in the way everyone celebrated after Joe Louis knocked out Max Schmeling in 1 round in 1938. We all know it will be larger, but that is her point of reference because that is an indelible memory for her how raucous the crowds were that night. She is 85.
It's well into Tuesday here in Sydney Australia, what do you guys think this last ditch smear campaign for mccain/palin regards "bankrupting coal" is going to play out? any traction at this point?
Despite all of the great pictures and stories, we have yet to see pictures of you and Brett! Nate's ugly mug is all over everywhere, but nobody knows what the guys behind "On the Road" are all about.
McCain's under 10% on intrade
Seems to me that Obama is peaking at exactly the right time, both in the USA as a whole and in each State..
This is great news, I won't have to go cold turkey.....
Thank you so much Nate, Sean and Brett. You 3 are amazing. Please DO let us know of any "compilation in print" or the like. I'd buy one also.
However, I think the site's popularity isn't caused by Brett's photos alone, it might also have a bit to do with the Colbert bump,
Indeed. Hands up who found out about this site from when Nate was on Colbert?
Me, for a start, anyway.
Hello guys,
Thank you for all this time, driving us here on the eve of the election. I am living in Canada, not a US citizen (I mean, can not vote); but very much interested. Currently, I am taking three course in my final years of my gradute program in Dalhousie University. But, let me tell you, I usually said to my friends, I am taking four courses (including the US election). My text-book was 538.com
As I had some course in biostatistics and data mining too, I am interested on your analysis and interpretations.
Anyways, thank you very much. And I am glad that this comes to an end, as it really affects my studies.... and my paper too.
See you there with Obama's victory.
This is it! Lets' not ever go to Drudge! HE is a right wing hate manipulator of news! You want manipulation go to Huffington Post. Never let Drudge have another month like his last one!
i like the idea of also covering the European elections.
seems like the europeans have more sex in their politics for all to see. which might fit in nicely with the new porn angle here.
i have been here so much i cant quit cold like this.
@badgerhair
Do you have voter registration in Britain? Lots of trouble coming from that alone in the U.S. I'm automatically registered because of the mandatory registration of residence. I know, for many Americans the idea sends chills down the spine, but it makes so many things so much easier, especially voting.
Who says Obama will win (from the Huffington Post):
Mark Halperin
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 349 McCain 189
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats 40 Republicans
House Seats: 261 Democrats 174 Republicans
Matthew Dowd
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 338 McCain 200
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 250 Democrats 185 Republicans
George Will
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 378 McCain 160
Senate Seats: 57 Democrats 41 Republicans
House Seats: 254 Democrats 181 Republicans
Donna Brazile
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 343
Senate Seats: 59 Democrats 39 Republicans
House Seats: 262 Democrats 173 Republicans
George Stephanopoulos
Winner: Obama
Electoral College: Obama 353 McCain 185
Senate Seats: 58 Democrats (59 if there's a run-off in Georgia) Republicans 40
House Seats: Democrats 264 Republicans 171
I check this site every day and LOVE the photos, but it was the Colbert show that tipped me off to your existence. YOU GOT THE COLBERT BUMP!
I was referred to this site a few months ago and am on it about 15 hours of the day. Thanks for your insightful comments, stories, pictures and ofcourse THE NUMBERS!!! I check here first before looking elsewhere-and then coming back.
Thanks to those of you that contribute to the discussion, it has been a fun ride and can't wait to see what is going to happen next.
No one has told the story as you have on this election. Thanks!!!
oustshe-oh I think you know which she is about to be ousted...
Look up your weather tomorrow NY, PA, everyone, in Orlando,FL-partly cloudy, did not see chance of rain, high 78 degrees low 58.
GO VOTE!
It is ironic that the first black President is not the descendant of slaves but instead had a black foreign father who only lived in the US for about 3-4 years (in Hawaii and Mass.) According to the Baltimore Sun, Barack's white ancestors included slaveowners. Barack is related to Darth Cheney on his mother's side.
----------------------------------
Barack is also related to Jefferson Davis, the former Confederate President.
@duncan
- I wouldnt be that excited by a uk version for the obvious reason that the level of excitement about uk politics is so low. Unpopular labour government and a rubbish opposition both which are practically identical i.e. no real change on offer.
The level of excitement here is partly that even if obama under performs the absolute enormity for the whole world and america of a black president in itself is a massive change. In the same way Thatcher completely changed the position and status of women for the better regardless of her own policies.
my 2p
I've been lurking @ 538 for a while, posting for the first time.
For me this model worked for a while, but close to election, it sort of stopped.
Look, if indeed the national margin is at 10+ percentage points as the latest polls indicate (and they are the ones that really count, in all due respect to Nate's model), then we are talking about the whole country turning BLUE, except perhaps AK, UT, OK and such. This national lead is similar to reagan's vs Mondale. or to continue analogies Mac is Carter (remember "too close to call" polling for a while?).
12% lead nationally simply means 400+ EV despite all the supression hurdles and crazy computerized voting without paper trace!!! This means Texas goes to dems! WY, UT, OK, AK, ID are the only safe McSame's states.
State polls lag...
The day is coming - let's VOTE!
No more chicken noise - it's all about turnout.
zatsizi - pollster's exclamation after seeing the results of Obama's victory as in 'Zatsizi!??!!!' (see also zissizi)
Anyone else have election induced coma today? I watch to watch live numbers move like on the Iowa caucus site. I need live numbers in motion - now.
Oh yes! :-D
but aren't we all blesti
I miss the days in late spring when I could post a comment a few hours into a post and still be near the top. But Nate and Sean and Brett deserve it. The analysis - both statistical and political - is first rate. I am astonished at the consistent quality of the ideas presented here. Quite often they seem to begin with a systems-theory based big picture that perfectly encapsulates current events and then the facts are assembled as an explanatory aid. It is precisely the opposite of what I might expect from a statistician.
I look forward to continuing to check in here for political news and opinion - but I'm hoping to balance my time here with a little more time for the rest of my life beginning on Wednesday.
Kudos guys.
badgerhair,
I think the long lines in some areas may also reflect a lack of equipment and/or staff to work the election.
My county is not expecting any long waits to vote. We have 1.2 million registered voters. The expectation is that a total of up to 750,000 of them will vote. 480,000 have already voted in early voting. Tomorrow there will be 5,000 voting booths in 480 polling locations and 4,000 people working the election. That's about 54 voters per booth.
Even if all of them were to vote after work, the waits should not be long. We'll see.
To all the people who do wait hours to vote --- THANK YOU!!!
And we do need to fix that.
So am I the only donkey who actually tried fivethirtyeightafterdark.com, knowing that there would be nothing there, but not wanting to leave open the possibility that there just might be something there?
Yeah, that's my stories, and I'm sticking to it.
WV: tenies - The superlative form of the adjective "teni."
John McCain has the tenies chance of actually being elected president.
(It works if you put three syllables into it.)
Hey Nate, Sean and Brett!
I just want to say thank you to you for keeping me sane this election (you and Al Giordano). I've been a fan of yours since the primaries began, and a fan of Obama's for much longer -- when he gave his speech in 2004, I said then that he would/should be President some day. I never imagined it would be this election but it's looking promising. Anyway, thanks for assuaging my fears with cold, hard statistical data and for giving up sleep to keep track of this electoral craziness. I don't post a lot here, but all (ok most, minus some of the worst trolls) of you have served to entertain me as well.
Now, I must go buy some liquor to watch my election with.
And yes, I'm one of the few girls (I guess??? I believe we're more numerous that it may seem here in political addiction land) here.
Who knows, maybe after the election I can actually get some work done for the first time in a couple years.
Thanks, guys. The analysis was top-notch.
I am waiting for the more risque site..."Nailin' Palin", anybody?
GET OUT AND VOTE, PEOPLE!
Obama is up to 92 on Intrade
Well, from outside the US it seems as if the 2012 election cycle will start next thursday (perhaps Palin thinks it started last week), so don't go away...
Do you want to try your hand working through the UK polls?
if you were to do the same w/ uk polls, we'd take a greater interest in non-us politics - one gets absolute prokroim from the us media in that zone.
Gentlemen,
I have to say I truly admire your approach to analysis of this election.
This site has the best analysis of the fundamentals of this election. Your poll and statistical based analysis is combined with some straightforward reporting of the nature of the ground game and operational realities on the ground.
This is Obama's strength, he realises the significance of operational and administrative excellence. From the time I heard he had employed executives from FEDEX and Mcdonalds in his organisation, I started paying rapt attention because it struck me he the democratic party finally had someone who understood what it would take. Proactive Operational excellence and planning.
In my experience Americans are actually very good at this.
I have worked for American firms in London, United Kingdom for years and I have seen American management and executives overcome massive operational intercontinental obstacles and solve massive operational problems in a way I have never seen at other companies. You still have great potential as a nation and I admire it even with all of your imperfections, as we all have imperfections. The main thing about Americans is that they are honest about theirs. I digress.
Please do continue this site and please do not lose the mix of the statistical and on the ground/frontline fundamental analysis.
nuff said.
@Charles M. Kozierok
say charles, we heard you the first time yesterday about your new forum .... don't need to keep pushing it ...
thanks,
mcCain's push is clousn down!
I am a baseball prospectus geek, so I was aware of 538.com when it came around. But it has exceeded my expectations with this elections.
Yeah, it could use some formatting and additional analysis of the street smarts involved with the game of politics, but it is the foremost reliable source for aggregate polling.
You can always separate the wheat from the chaff with the polls at 538.com...unlike RCP and other sources that tend to cherry-pick.
I have a big idea you guys could tackle/have....Make a site that could become a venue for political debates... Add video debates and candidate profiles... You could click on a state, look at the chart, and watch the debate... Then you start to host your own debates.
Right now the site is for vindicating opinions. It could also be about forming opinions. Seems like a natural step for me, and potentially a very valuable tool our democracy is sorely lacking.
Otherwise, great work with the site. I'm a baseball guy too, and a stat junky myself, so I've really gorged myself on your perspective. It's the perfect format for me to absorb information :)
Other than a huge master plan... I hope for the next election you'll add per-state graphs to go along with the statistics.
Thanks for doing this. It was cool..... Too soon for good byes though. It'll probibly take me a solid week before I'll be able to shed my reflex to check the site every 45 minutes.
Please do continue to feed this beast beyond election day! If we can all be this engaged going forward, it will help create the kind of accountability for our officials that is critical for a successful democracy.
Agreed!!
it could be an ensco to voter apathy.
@beek
Voter reg is automatic here in Britain in that you can just send back a prepaid envelope - you need do nothing to it if there's no change from last year.
This year I forgot and lost the mail and went to Town Hall to update. They took trouble to let me do so, but wires were crossed and a council official came round on a Saturday to check who was living here. I filled in again just in case. Same lady was round knocking doors on the Sunday!
List is compiled in October but you can now add your name at any time if you move to a new area (IIRC if you move within a ward your old address is good enough).
I hope you'll be doing some serious post-mortem statistical analysis:
1) how accurate your electoral vote, popular vote and state-by-state vote share predictions were.
2) how accurate your Senate predictions were.
3) how your regression variables and similarity scores measured up in practice.
4) whether the actual electoral map was a common scenario in the simulations.
Update: The only tracking polls which still do not have Obama at 50% or above are IBD/TIPP (47%), GWU/Battleground (49%) and Fox (47%).
There's a good chance they're going to regret this.
The European elections are too boring for Nate to bother with! Low turnout, and so many different groups of parties that nobody ever "wins".
Not to take away from Brett's contribution at all, but I think that this boom in traffic also correlates with your series on ground game nationwide and with a great increase in media attention for this site and for Nate. You all deserve many kudos.
So I must guess that the mccain/palin smear "bankrupt coal" ain't working good,
My advice to everyone in here is make your vote count, and Get Out To Vote (GOTV) and dump on the GOP!!
Seems to me that Obama is peaking at exactly the right time, both in the USA as a whole and in each State..
was anything left to chance?
lol
The voter turnout will be a clear pliduno for Obama!
@beek
Not filling in an electoral registration form for a household is technically as illegal as filling it in falsely in the UK, although I've never heard of anyone actually being prosecuted for failing to register.
Even if no-one in the household is eligible to vote on grounds of being foreign, in prison or mad, you still have to return the form and say that there's no-one eligible.
There was a bit of a foofaraw a few years ago when it emerged that most councils had cut back on the elections department to the extent that some places had vast numbers of dead people on the rolls, so now we have to register every year - although if nothing has changed it only takes a few seconds on the phone to confirm it - and names get purged more rapidly than they used to, but registration is really not a problem of any significance in UK politics.
Awesome. Love the site and look forward to all the goodies to come.
I can't believe the best they can do is coal....
@beek:
GWU has Obama hitting 50 today after being stuck at 49 for 10 out of the last 11 days :-)
Love you guys and YES YES a thousand times YES!
Please keep it up - you guys ROCK - I love it all - the numbers, the commentary, the pictures.
You're successful because you are that good!
Yeah, I think those site visit stats are skewed--I know I'm here at least five times a day. Very glad you're going to be around after the election--on the one hand I'm looking forward to having a little more free time, on the other I can't imagine going cold turkey. "I wish I knew how to quit you."
Love the 538afterdark name. And the poll dancing idea. LOL Hell, if they can make a successful mainstream tv show called "Numbers," I don't see why we couldn't have a sexy, quantitative porn site.
WV=pride--an actual word, and very apropos. I will feel great pride when I vote for Barack Obama tomorrow (no early voting in MD).
If Obama loses, the statiscal firms may as well close up business because no one would ever listen to them again.
Here is a question: Do we hope for a big turnout or a small turnout tomorrow (Obviously we want to GOTV for Obama), but overall?
It seems like in states where early voting has generated big leads (FL, NC, CO, NM, NV) we want a small turnout because the 'rump' voters are majority McCain. In low early voting states (e.g PA) we want a big turnout. Thoughts?
- I wouldnt be that excited by a uk version for the obvious reason that the level of excitement about uk politics is so low. Unpopular labour government and a rubbish opposition both which are practically identical i.e. no real change on offer.
Any international upcoming elections likely to be interesting?
hotormer is the last undecided voter.
Count me among those who would love to see this sort of level-headed analysis and anecdotal field reporting applied beyond politics.
As the economy goes south, the world needs more writers with their heads screwed on straight who can explain things in plain eEglish.
I hope you guys will branch out into economics, religion, and cultural reporting as time goes on. Great work!
what happened to all of this dirt the republicans was supposed to have on Obama? I guess it was a fantasy. Obama must have lived a near perfect life if they couldn't get anything on him other than what some associates of his have said. or he is really good at hiding it.
@Kris...got my bottle yesterday...and I am a female 538 junkie!!
480,000 have already voted in early voting
A fellow Iowan?
Hi!
Yup, Congrats on the site...well deserved.
Having been coming here since the Poblano revelation, it's pretty amazing how quickly it has grown. I'm not sure how many people I've mentioned this site to but it's been substantial.
Every time my wife hears bad news on the T.V. she asks, OH NO. Why are they reporting Gallup has it tied or McCain is coming back, I bring up this web site, show my wife the trend and show her Obama's win percentage.
I probably owe Nate and gang a few beers for allowing me a good nights sleep and keeping the polling real.
Sean, Nate, and especially Brett,
You've become part of my routine, but much more so. I've grown in my respect for what you do from an initially skeptical view (which I voiced at DKos some months back) to a view that uses what you publish to help me understand my own biases and find the errors in other sites' predictions.
Brett is a gifted photographer. A great mix of street, documentary and touches of fine art thrown in together. He has helped me become much more appreciative of the genre whereas up until now I've been much more of a architectural / landscape photographer. I have learned much from you.
To put something into concrete terms, 538 is what convinced me that working for an Obama win in my Virginia could pay off. I had not really believed until I started studying what was going on via 538, so in a very real way you've helped me help the campaign - and my wallet is lighter because of it!
Thank you all!
100.
Sean, you're terrific. Thanks for the class-A-1 writing.
WV: skint
OMG! CNN has photographic evidence of a live McCain volunteer on the ground, IN THE WILD, actually doing her job (or so she said).
Now we're doomed, dOOmed, DOOMED, I say!!
"I can't believe the best they can do is coal...."
I know an owner of a coal mining company in Southern Indiana. He says there is a complete disconnect between the mine owners and their lobbyists in DC.
First, the biggest lie invented in the wordsmithing game in the last decade is "clean coal". There is no such thing. Coal is dirty and a threat to global warming.
Second, the mine owners in union states tend to be union men who support Democrats because the OSHA mining rules protect their investment. Notice where the recent collapses have been? WV at a non-union strip and Utah where the owner was on the verge of evil.
Last, jobs in coal affect very few voters today compared to the 1960s. Conglomerates are reducing the need for more miners. Unions are being busted. Right now, the GOP is reaping the detriment of their efforts to bust unions and consolidate ownership.
You are right. Coal is a desperate talking point. They made that one less credible themselves.
I know I'm here at least five times a day
only 5?
Well, the rest of us have to condefix 5 times an hour.
:-D
Jonathan,
I want a huge turnout. The larger the number of voters, the more of a chance that we'll see election reform. 8 hour waits to vote is criminal.
Other than that, I'm also thinking a large turnout overall helps Obama.
Buckeye-thanks for sharing that about your grandma. Brought a tear to my eye. I can only imagine the feelings of your grandmothers generation, they have lived through so much---I still remember the pictures of dogs attacking demonstators, when I was a kid.
Brett's pictures are great, a very nice complement to the talking [number]head core of 538. Coffee table book worthy material for sure. But I can tell you that I heard about you through your appearance on the Daily Show (which you nailed BTW).
new post
omg - I've caught up w/ the most recents posts ... does this mean i have to do some real 'work' ?
sigh, kiensom
"Sreenu said...
GWU has Obama hitting 50 today after being stuck at 49 for 10 out of the last 11 days :-)"
GWU: Obama 50 - Gramps 44
GWU can't take it anymore and throws in the towel waving the white flag of surrender...
@badgerhair
As I said, voter registration is automatic in Germany, you don't have to do anything. So, a few weeks before the election, I get my "voting card" per mail telling me where to show up on election day or what to do to file an absentee ballot (we do not have in-person early voting). The voting councils keep complete lists of the eligible voters in the district and cross out the name of those who have voted to make sure nobody votes twice. Being registred in two districts at once is illegal and trying to vote in two distrcits of course even more so.
Guys, you absolutely have to do the book, big and glossy.
I came here originally from guardian.co.uk, whose columnists cite Nate quite frequently, despite their site having RCP embedded. Big love from the Guardian today: http://www.guardian.co.uk/technology/2008/nov/03/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight
Then I found Sean's On the Road series, almost the day he hooked up with Brett, and was hooked myself.
Regarding a UK general election, it could be a tough call: 635 (currently) individual races that form the 'electoral college' that is the House of Commons. It'd be interesting to see if your approach differs/is more or less accurate than UK pollsters and psephologists though.
wv: trinha, a small Brazilian nose-cymbal, so called since the sound it makes apparently resembles the call of a small, sadly now extinct, aquatic bird
"Other than that, I'm also thinking a large turnout overall helps Obama."
The larger the turnout, the better for Democratic candidates. Expect caging in Indiana and North Carolina by Republicans to aid the McCain effort....maybe even win it for him there.
124.3 million to 130.1 million turnout...just a hunch.
WV: hogis
this site is simply great. Fantastic job....almost a shame that the election is coming to an end!
One weird thing though - why do so many posters still quote the RCP average? It's irrelevant and not trustworthy.
On the turnout - I always want a large turnout. Everyone should vote. If they disagree with me, that is ok. It's an important part of being a good citizen, at least in my view.
On the topic of a sixfortysix.com (there being 646 members of the UK House of Commons), I doubt it would work.
There are approximately 200 battleground constituencies in any given election, half of which will move in line with national polls, roughly speaking, while the other half are extremely dependent on local issues and the state of the local party organisations.
Nobody polls at the constituency level. What we get are polls from what the pollsters think are battleground places, but apart from Rallings & Thrasher they have no real idea of how to deal with three-party politics, because we don't really have three-party politics in most seats.
In the north of England, it's mostly Lab v Lib Dem, in the Midlands Lab v Con and in the south Con v Lib Dem, and London has a bit of all three.
Traditional reporting has focused on swing between Lab and Con, which can easily lead to idiotic conclusions such as there being a 4% Lab -> Con swing when what has actually happened is 12% Lab -> LD and 8% Con > LD.
Add in the fact that the boundaries of constituencies are rarely the same for more than two general elections, so you have to account for which wards have shifted, and the model becomes exceedingly complex, but then you find you don't have enough data to feed the beast because we don't have polling at a granular enough level.
I can only imagine the feelings of your grandmothers generation, they have lived through so much
There have been quite a few good stories along these lines. This one is from the WaPo yesterday:
Link to Washington Post Article
Thank you Nate and Sean and Brett! and thank you to everyone that has posted here (including the trolls!) one of the greatest thing about this site has been the intelligent community of concerned people that are here every day. I live far from home, in Paris, France and when I talk to my friends stateside on the phone, I feel a bit embarrassed because I feel like a know the political scene from a whole variety of angles, much better than some of them do, thanks to the insightful comments here.
Yes, the EU needs your work, guys, but I wonder what other country has elections so fraught with madness, dirty tricks, byzantine rules and regulations,... not to mention Sarah Palin! I think this is one election to savor and never forget. Thank you all!
a Brit site would be excellent, the lack of public polling data in ket seats would be a real issue though.
Registration,
I moved a few years ago and forgot to update my address, I had to travel across London in rush hour to cast my vote in the very Safe Seat for Labour in 2005.
Anyways a regestration form comes ropund every year so you can update by post, for free with a simple written form.
I kept forgetting so got a knock at the door a couple of evenings ago. A council worker asking me to register. filled out the form on the doorstep 30secs.
pershlon - its bloody pershlon at the moment[perishing in london],
Dear Nate, Sean and Brett,
You guys have made this election season bearable. You have been telling the real stories of this election through your analysis, stories and pictures. I look forward to seeing what you have in store for us after this election, when I will not be refreshing 538 obsessively every hour.
May your predictions be right!
THANK YOU!
Aside from the statistical stuff, the On The Road series was/is hands-down, the best thing I've ever read about grassroots political campaigning.
All three of you guys deserve all of the fortune, fame, and loads of high-quality tail that you are certain to get.
Agree with badgerhair, would add that in Scotland and Wales the SNP and plaid Cymru make four parties to add to the mix, and N Ireland is another planet...
They do have constituency polls, usually in "typical" marginal seats, but never enough. It was a constituency poll in Enfield Southgate that made folk realise Portillo's seat might be competitive.
In 1997 the first seat to turn from Tory to Labour was Crosby, a seat so "safe" that no cameras or national reporters were there. When i heard that Labour had won easily with a swing of 18%, I knew something seismic was happening.
Since we have a UK theme going this morning, I thought I'd link this article I just found at the top of Google news, a BBC guide to election night with times given locally:
Link here
Hey guys, this was a great place to get polling data from. And despite the regular invasion of FReeptards, concern trolls, and fake PUMAs, the comments here were by and large an extension of the thoughtful analysis you guys provided.
I don't know what I'm going to do on November 5 - it'll be like taking crack from a junkie.
While the "On the Road" series is a nice addition, the reason for the site's success is Nate's stellar statistical analysis, not Sean's hyper partisan b.s. and heavy handedness. Either way, stop pimping out your photog every other post. We want numbers!
Thanks notyourblog
I couldnt decide whether to stay up or go to sleep and set alarm for 4am. So stay up it is and hope to get some ideas by 2.30
We only have Freeview so BBC 24 it is. Not Sky because I refuse to consume ANY Murdoch media .........
can I start a movement on that?
This site has been a great find, and I look forward to what comes after E-Day. (Living in GA, I expect politics may be hot and heavy a few more weeks.) I knew Nate form BP, but had missed (or not connected) Sean's work. I'll keep an eye open on future final tables.
I discovered this site about a month ago. And I couldn't have survived without it. Thanks to all involved.
Actually everyone who found out about you linked to your site and wrote articles about your work, like our site, mnblue. A local newspaper blog tried to write about polls, when all of the comments were filled with references to Nate Silver and this site. You should be proud!
Almost single handedly, you thought progressives about the internals of polls, about margin of error, about leans and about thinking about opening up new areas of voters.
Thank you!
Much thanks all -- I'm a stat-head too, but the photographs and travel journals have been great.
prairiecomm said...
480,000 have already voted in early voting
A fellow Iowan?
Hi!
And Hi to you!
I don't live in Iowa, but I have hopes of my state of Texas being blue like Iowa. In a few years.
I live in Dallas County. That number is just Dallas County early voting.
Guys, you have more page views than TPM: http://www.talkingpointsmemo.com/archives/242086.php
That is fan-freaking-tastic. Great job.
Congrats on the Linkins shout-out on HuffPo, Nate, Sean and Brett:
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/02/fivethirtyeightcom-more-t_n_140201.html
Linkins: "Both on the balance sheet and on the trail, FiveThirtyEight has done a superlative job at making sense of this election, in ways that have far surpassed the traditional media."
Right on!
They're a little late to the party, but I'm glad you're getting the recognition you three deserve.
P.S. Nate, with his brilliant mind, gets my vote for the sexiest man alive!!!
@MatthewBlack
I started coming last Spring for the stats, but Sean and Brett's words and images have added so much to this website.
I think you are wrong. This site has grown because it has added Sean and Brett.
,dave
Glad to know you guys will stick around after Election Day. I've really enjoyed having such a reliable source of comprehensive analysis during this circus.
That having been said, I hope y'all take a little vacation starting Wednesday. You're workaholics.
Thanks for making me sound smart when I talk to all my friends!
an unbelievable site. the fair minded comments about threats to validity about one poll or another warmed my calloused stat-class fanny. i particularly appreciate the didactic asides for those of us who want more about weighting, biased sampling, etc. This site has been an constant companion during these troubled days. bravo
Nate, Sean, and Brett, your work is fantastic and demonstrates the bankruptcy of the MSM. They couldn't find a stat person to do some serious poll analysis? They couldn't send a reporter and photographer to field offices? (Actually, some of them did, but always with a "fairness" slant that never made it clear how unbalanced the ground games were.)
Again, wonderful work all around, and all the best from here on.
You guys are a welcome destination for us political junkies!
Keep it up!
You have one awesome web site. And yes, Brett's photos blow me away. Sean's insights are great - he has a light touch of the gonzo in him - and some day I'd love to talk with Nate about giving a colloquium at my university (I'm a department chair at a Univeristy of California).
Just wanted to say thanks for all the great info and analysis. Glad to hear tomorrow isn't the last day of 538!
I'm so addicted to this site! I check it all day long. I have a huge crush on Nate!
I don't know how I would have made it through the past 2 months without this website. Thank you Five Thirty Eight!
Well, I can honestly say that after your help in getting through this ordeal, with my sanity intact, you have an audience for life.
Brett's photos have been absolutely incredible. And I don't even have to mention Nate and Sean. I feel very connected to 538.
If nothing else my brief time here has taught me that there are other people out there with my bizarre amalgamation of interests - poker, baseball, and Obama.
Hi InkStain!
Thank you, thank you, thank you! Five Thirty Eight, Democratic Convention Watch and Green Papers have made this year's election completely enjoyable to me (the fact that Obama has done well hasn't hurt either).
I have my spreadsheet ready for tomorrow, not to see if Obama will win (that's a done deal) but to see how closely Nate's state-by-state predictions hold up.
Nate Silver, you have drastically improved the quality of our nation's discourse about the election. You can run for high office even if you're just a "Hockey Mom", but to be respected as an electoral maven you better have some smarts. Nate, you gots the smarts!
It's been really great having your site around during the last few weeks; I'm so glad I heard about it and I made sure my friends checked it out. Keep it up after the election!
Thanks, Nate, Sean, and Brett. I am Wisconsin born, Iowa bred, (born about 20 minutes away from Platteville, Brett's hometown, apparently). This site has been my constant companion. I sincerely hope it morphs into something else that is just as addictive (I need something to do here at work, people).
Highlights for me:
Watching Obama's win percentage go from the 40s to 97.x% Amazing.
The fantastic legs of that Hoosier girl at the field office (wow).
The On the Road series... very well done, insightful, and accompanied by great visuals.
Anyway, I voted early yesterday here in Madison, WI. I waited for 2.5 hrs to vote, the lines were huge. No one seemed to mind. The feeling in the air was one of hope... I saw a lot of smiles and quite a few people laughing and having a good time. One older Obama supporter was in line with a walker... quite amazing.
Also, kudos to the poll workers, they did a great job. They let a few handicapped people vote curbside, isn't that fantastic?
I only wish I had HDNet. :....(
fantsa. Fanta from South America (it is quite popular in Brazil where I lived for several years), OR my beautiful Brazilian wife.
Sean and Brett put the human face on all those numbers. Making them part of this site was a brilliant move, and every "on the road" post reminds us that there are real, live people out there doing the hard work it takes to make change happen. Thank you all.
Last!?
wv lakedli - a laked nadie in the light
Great pictures, great commentary, keep it all up!
THANK YOU, THANK YOU, THANK YOU!!
In 2000, my birthday fell between election day and the supreme court's appointment of Bush. What a nightmare. It continued in 2004.
Watching the mainstream media (at least until very recently) gave the impression that this election was competitive. I check 538 when I wake up, all day long, and before I go to bed. And it's helping me maintain the little sanity I have left. And I'm saving a fortune on therapy!
Thanks Nate, Sean, and Brett. Real patriotic Americans all. Peace!!
Long time lurker, first time poster. I thank you three for educating a statistics/polling newbie into the wonderful, wacky, arcane world of the poll. FiveThirtyEight demonstrates the power of grassroots publication that was promised by Internet pundits almost a decade and a half ago.
You rawk.
My suggestion for the future: FiveThirtyEight International Edition. "Electoral Projections Done Right Around The World".
Nate, I'm a little disappointed in someone who so clearly has a grasp of cause/effect that you would attribute your site traffic increase to Brett's photos. Sure, they're a nice addition, bud don't you think that perhaps the fact that the election was getting closer and/or additional publicity you've received was actully more accountable for the increase?
I am so glad to hear y'all will be around after the election. It's wonderful to have an intelligent alternative to all the Wonkette-style bullshit out there.
Chalk another up for Colbert. That's where I heard about this site!
Nate, Sean and Brett, thank you for all you've done. Sean and Brett are the only ones reporting on the ground game nationwide and it has been fascinating and inspiring. Nate's analysis of the poll numbers has been illuminating and reassuring. In short, you guys rock. That is all.
I'd encourage y'all to try to incorporate some video in your remake of this site -- which can, in any case, use a makeover with improved layout, graphics, and space for ads! (Maybe Google will be interested in contributing to this, given the importance of this site and the fact that Google owns Blogger -- not to mention that Larry Page and Nate Silver both attended the same high school!)
BTW/ Nate appeared on D.L. Hughley last weekend, and you can watch the segment here.
Thanks a lot for your effort, guys. You have been contributing to this anxiety that every junkie of this election feels. Tomorrow will be the great test!!
Mostly-lurker saying thanks for all your hard work! A livejournal link from a politically-informed friend sent me here in August. I didn't stop by much at first, but in the last month it's helped me cope with pre-election anxieties. (Yes, I'm yet another victim of HangingChad-Dieboldphobia.)
I obviously need to find out where Nate lurks during baseball season -- BP, I assume!
revir -- Aw revir, Sarah Palin's attempt to say goodbye to Fake Sarkozy with an accent only slightly more phony.
I find it interesting how you all work together. Often commenters mix you up. A real team.
I am going to assume that after dark - is an attempt at humor.
Say it ain't so ... Sean.
PS: Getting onto the MSM with the descriptor: poll analyst and pornographer - it just doesn't work.
blinci: an Italian yiddish delicacy.
I first read about this site in the Times not long ago -- part of your jump in views could be from that. But I think that as the election closes in, more and more of us are coming back many times a day for updates.
Thank you for combining clear, transparent analysis of statistics with good writing -- it is a rare breed that can do so! I appreciate the fact that you don't hide your opinions, but don't twist the data to uphold your opinions.
Keep up the good work! If you publish a book, I'll buy it! I would particularly love to see the data in the state summaries presented side by side, along with actual final voting results.
Actually, what originally attracted me to your site was your appearance on The Colbert Report. I checked out your site, liked it, and have directed probably 10 others to it. They liked it and did the same. I think your appearance on The Report did alot.
Books: there are at least 2, possibly 3 in what you guys have done.
(1) Nate's story of "538": either a personal narrative of how he built the model and became a "celebrity" polling analyst; OR a more analytical book along the lines of Baseball Between the Numbers, in which he addresses issues of polling, Bradley effects, forecasting, etc. etc. Book title: FiveThirtyEight.
(2) A coffee-table "On the Road" book featuring above all Brett's photos with a narrative to accompany it.
(3) A more analytic book giving more emphasis to the text than the photos but also including selective photos. Basically, the Kerouac approach or, in my rendition, something more akin to Robert Pirsig's "Zen and the Art of Motorcycle Mainteance" focusing on the inner workings of the ground game. That would be a good title: "Ground Game."
For #2 and #3 if you could find yourself a really good, thoroughly professional editor, and work with a major press, you could do both by working with your existing texts. Whether you could do it by Xmas is questionable, given productime time, but hey why not Inauguration Day?
wv: tdnestr
Commerce/Bike-based
Does anyone know what this means?
well, let's not forgot Nate's television appearances. I'm sure that's what has really increased traffic. Not to say that the pics aren't good.
"32.18 million pageviews"
I feel like I am responsible for 1/2 of this number
The pleasure is entirely ours. I can't wait for your final day updates and I'm looking forward to the future goodies. You guys rock!
washerdreyer said...
Commerce/Bike-based
Does anyone know what this means?
"Commerce" and "The Bike" are two of the largest poker-rooms in Los Angeles.
This is the best site by far.
just don't forget the little people who've decorated your site with comments, much like scrolling on the Temple at Black Rock City, which, I hear is heavily in favor of BHO...
I would like to QFT Dustin from around noon.
Colbert plus being a baseball fan really piqued my interest in this site. Nice work. The people I have referenced this to enjoy it as well.
Bex of Ambridge...
Here is an interactive map of your village:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/radio4/archers/map/
Give it up. What is the name of your abode?
Anyone else find this site through XKCD? http://xkcd.com/477/
Correlation is not causation, you jerks!
I believe Commerce is also the name of an area of L.A., where a lot of people don't know poker is actually legal, and features probably the best games in the world (by which I mean softest, but also a lot of super tough pros). The two biggest cardrooms are the Commerce Casino (the biggest in the world) and the Bicycle Casino (also quite large).
Nate/Sean -
Where do I sign up for the porn? As long as you keep Marty taking such tasteful picss, you're sure to succeed.
In all seriousness, thank you for all of your tireless efforts. Very impressed with the objectiveness and accuracy.
Brett's got a fantastic eye and the writing has helped me put my 12 and 14-hour days in context as I get ready to G O T fucking V.
Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. AFSCME.
You think labor doesn't swing elections? I and a driver knocked out 80 doors today, even as I had to recut turf on the fly with a pen.
Getting up early to test Lemoyne's electioneering statute enforcement with a 2XL AFSCME for OBAMA shirt. Green, of course.
Eight points isn't enough. I'm gonna kill myself all day tomorrow until the polls close. Win every hour, every fucking vote, etc.
The last references Joe Trippi freaking out during the last days of Dean in Iowa. He grabbed a young teenage Deaniac's arm and spazzed out about the paramount importance of getting every fucking vote. Even though he was right, it was creepy. The volunteen told me about it on a van somewhere in Iowa.
Congratulations, Nate, Brett and Sean
Great work, folks! I'll admit, I found you through the photos. I'm loving it all!!!
Good luck tomorrow...
The photos are spectacular, yes, but correlation does not imply causation... :)
I found you guys through multiple mentions by Keith Olbermann on Countdown.
Great work, and I look forward to seeing your methods vindicated within the next, oh, 15 hours or so! :)
Last!
情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣用品,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,情趣,美國aneros,rudeboy,英國rudeboy,英國Rocksoff,德國Fun Factory,Fun Factory,英國甜筒造型按摩座,甜筒造型按摩座,英國Rock Chic ,瑞典 Lelo ,英國Emotional Bliss,英國 E.B,荷蘭 Natural Contours,荷蘭 N C,美國 OhMiBod,美國 OMB,Naughti Nano ,音樂按摩棒,ipod按摩棒,美國 The Screaming O,美國TSO,美國TOPCO,美國Doc Johnson,美國CA Exotic,美國CEN,美國Nasstoy,美國Tonguejoy,英國Je Joue,美國Pipe Dream,美國California Exotic,美國NassToys,美國Vibropod,美國Penthouse,仿真按摩棒,矽膠按摩棒,猛男倒模,真人倒模,仿真倒模,PJUR,Zestra,適趣液,穿戴套具,日本NPG,雙頭龍,FANCARNAL,日本NIPPORI,日本GEL,日本Aqua Style,美國WET,費洛蒙,費洛蒙香水,仿真名器,av女優,打炮,做愛,性愛,口交,吹喇叭,肛交,魔女訓練大師,無線跳蛋,有線跳蛋,震動棒,震動保險套,震動套,TOY-情趣用品,情趣用品網,情趣購物網,成人用品網,情趣用品討論,成人購物網,鎖精套,鎖精環,持久環,持久套,拉珠,逼真按摩棒,名器,超名器,逼真老二,電動自慰,自慰,打手槍,仿真女郎,SM道具,SM,性感內褲,仿真按摩棒,pornograph,hunter系列,h動畫,成人動畫,成人卡通,情色動畫,情色卡通,色情動畫,色情卡通,無修正,禁斷,人妻,極悪調教,姦淫,近親相姦,顏射,盜攝,偷拍,本土自拍,素人自拍,公園露出,街道露出,野外露出,誘姦,迷姦,輪姦,凌辱,痴漢,痴女,素人娘,中出,巨乳,調教,潮吹,av,a片,成人影片,成人影音,線上影片,成人光碟,成人無碼,成人dvd,情色影音,情色影片,情色dvd,情色光碟,航空版,薄碼,色情dvd,色情影音,色情光碟,線上A片,免費A片,A片下載,成人電影,色情電影,TOKYO HOT,SKY ANGEL,一本道,SOD,S1,ALICE JAPAN,皇冠系列,老虎系列,東京熱,亞熱,武士系列,新潮館,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套,G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,生日精品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票號碼,夜市,統一發票對獎,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解,av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情, 股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上掃毒,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,火車,房屋,情趣用品,情趣,情趣商品,情趣網站,跳蛋,按摩棒,充氣娃娃,自慰套, G點,性感內衣,情趣內衣,角色扮演,生日禮物,精品,禮品,自慰,打手槍,潮吹,高潮,後庭,情色論譠,影片下載,遊戲下載,手機鈴聲,音樂下載,開獎號碼,統一發票,夜市,保險套,做愛,減肥,美容,瘦身,當舖,軟體下載,汽車,機車,手機,來電答鈴,週年慶,美食,徵信社,網頁設計,網站設計,室內設計,靈異照片,同志,聊天室,運動彩券,,大樂透,威力彩,搬家公司,除蟲,偷拍,自拍,無名破解, av女優,小說,民宿,大樂透開獎號碼,大樂透中獎號碼,威力彩開獎號碼,討論區,痴漢,懷孕,美女交友,交友,日本av ,日本,機票,香水,股市,股市行情,股市分析,租房子,成人影片,免費影片,醫學美容,免費算命,算命,姓名配對,姓名學,姓名學免費,遊戲,好玩遊戲,好玩遊戲區,線上遊戲,新遊戲,漫畫,線上漫畫,動畫,成人圖片,桌布,桌布下載,電視節目表,線上電視,線上a片,線上a片,線上翻譯,購物車,身分證製造機,身分證產生器,手機,二手車,中古車,法拍屋,歌詞,音樂,音樂網,借錢,房屋,街頭籃球,找工作,旅行社,六合彩,婚友,單身聯誼,未婚聯誼,婚友,交友,交友,婚友社,婚友社,婚友社,大陸新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,越南新娘,外籍新娘,外籍新娘,台中坐月子中心,搬家公司,搬家公司,中和搬家,台北搬家,板橋搬家,新店搬家,線上客服,網頁設計,線上客服,網頁設計,植牙,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,交友,越南新娘,婚友社,外籍新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,交友,外籍新娘,視訊聊天,大陸新娘,婚友社,婚友,越南新娘,大陸新娘,越南新娘,視訊交友,外籍新娘,網路排名,網路排名軟體,網站排名優化大師,關鍵字排名大師,網站排名seo大師,關鍵字行銷專家,關鍵字,seo,關鍵字行銷,網頁排序,網頁排名,關鍵字大師,seo大,自然排名,網站排序,網路行銷創業,汽車借款,汽車借錢,汽車貸款,汽車貸款,拉皮,抽脂,近視雷射,隆乳,隆鼻,變性,雙眼皮,眼袋,牙齒,下巴,植牙,人工植牙,植髮,雷射美容,膠原蛋白,皮膚科,醫學美容,玻尿酸,肉毒桿菌,微晶瓷,電波拉皮,脈衝光,關鍵字,關鍵字,seo,seo,網路排名,自然排序,網路排名軟體,英語演講,托福,Toastmaster,
^^ nice blog!! ^@^
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 感情挽回, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 挽回感情, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信, 捉姦, 徵信公司, 通姦, 通姦罪, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 捉姦, 監聽, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 外遇問題, 徵信, 捉姦, 女人徵信, 女子徵信, 外遇問題, 女子徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 徵信公司, 徵信網, 外遇蒐證, 抓姦, 抓猴, 捉猴, 調查跟蹤, 反跟蹤, 感情挽回, 挽回感情, 婚姻挽回, 挽回婚姻, 外遇沖開, 抓姦, 女子徵信, 外遇蒐證, 外遇, 通姦, 通姦罪, 贍養費, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信公司, 女人徵信, 外遇
徵信, 徵信網, 徵信社, 徵信網, 外遇, 徵信, 徵信社, 抓姦, 徵信, 女人徵信, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信公司, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 女人徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 女子徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 外遇, 抓姦, 離婚, 外遇,離婚,
徵信, 外遇, 離婚, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信社, 征信, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 征信, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信社, 徵信, 外遇, 抓姦, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,
^^ very nice
徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社, 徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,徵信, 徵信社,
看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,美髮儀器,美髮,儀器,髮型,EMBA,MBA,學位,EMBA,專業認證,認證課程,博士學位,DBA,PHD,在職進修,碩士學位,推廣教育,DBA,進修課程,碩士學位,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,課程介紹,學分班,文憑,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,日式料理, 台北居酒屋,日本料理,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,台北結婚,場地,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,造型系列,學位,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,SEO,婚宴,捷運,學區,美髮,儀器,髮型,牛樟芝,腦磷脂,磷脂絲胺酸,看房子,買房子,建商自售,自售,房子,捷運,學區,台北新成屋,台北豪宅,新成屋,豪宅,學位,碩士學位,進修,在職進修, 課程,教育,學位,證照,mba,文憑,學分班,網路廣告,關鍵字廣告,關鍵字,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,关键词,网络广告,关键词广告,SEO,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,台北住宿,國內訂房,台北HOTEL,台北婚宴,飯店優惠,住宿,訂房,HOTEL,飯店,婚宴,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,場地,結婚,場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,婚宴場地,結婚,婚宴場地,推車飲茶,港式點心,尾牙春酒,台北結婚,場地,居酒屋,燒烤,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,美髮,儀器,髮型,小套房,小套房,進修,在職進修,留學,證照,MBA,EMBA,留學,MBA,EMBA,留學,進修,在職進修,牛樟芝,段木,牛樟菇,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,关键词排名,网络营销,網路行銷,關鍵字排名,关键词排名,网络营销,PMP,在職專班,研究所在職專班,碩士在職專班,PMP,證照,在職專班,研究所在職專班,碩士在職專班,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,SEO,廣告,關鍵字,關鍵字排名,網路行銷,網頁設計,網站設計,網站排名,搜尋引擎,網路廣告,EMBA,MBA,PMP
,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,EMBA,MBA,PMP
,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,EMBA,MBA,PMP
,在職進修,專案管理,出國留學,婚宴,婚宴,婚宴,婚宴
住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,住宿,民宿,飯宿,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,住宿,民宿,飯店,旅遊,美容,美髮,整形,造型,設計,室內設計,裝潢,房地產,進修,在職進修,MBA,EMBA,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林,林志玲,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林,林志玲,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林,羅志祥,周杰倫,五月天,蔡依林
艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店經紀,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店工作,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
專業酒店經紀,
合法酒店經紀,
酒店暑假打工,
酒店寒假打工,
酒店經紀人,
菲梵酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
禮服酒店上班,
酒店小姐兼職,
便服酒店工作,
酒店打工經紀,
制服酒店經紀,
酒店經紀,
菲
梵,
Post a Comment