When wave enthusiasm cuts against the base population partisan identification, special elections favor the wave-associated candidate, provided the race is somewhat close to begin with.
After the successful 2006 Tester Senate race, I was hungry for more. A couple weeks drinking champagne, catching up on the third season of The Wire, and asserting dominance over my fantasy football league, I then got in the car and headed for Texas.
In TX-23, incumbent Republican Henry Bonilla was facing special election against former Congressman Ciro Rodriguez. Every single poll showed Bonilla comfortably ahead, including the Election Eve SurveyUSA poll that showed Bonilla up 51-47. The SurveyUSA poll a week before the election put Bonilla up 53-46.
Rodriguez won by 9 points, 54-45. And, with big DCCC investment and hundreds of workers pouring into the effort from around the country, the effort made the difference.
Consider that 2006 was a wave year, like 2008. Consider that turnout in the special election was 70,473, whereas a few weeks earlier the turnout on November 7 had been 123,799.
Or, take another example from this year. Don Cazayoux, who won a special election in May to take the Louisiana 6th district House seat on 101,017 turnout. On November 4, Cazayoux lost, with at least 312,416 having voted in the race.
Special elections simply have lower turnout, and thus it falls to base enthusiasm and getting out the vote. Organization becomes the key. How many Democratic organizers and volunteers in Georgia and around the country are not yet slaked of their thirst for beating Republicans? These people exist. How many will get in their cars and drive to Georgia to work? How many Republicans will be motivated to arrive from around the country to do the same work?
Already, we know that many among Obama's Ohio staff are flooding to Georgia. When we were down there just before Election Day, we got emails from Obama organizers telling us they'd already bought the tickets assuming there would be a runoff.
This doesn't guarantee a win -- by any stretch. When we arrive in ten days or so, we may find a sense among some Democratic voters that Obama's win was the golden prize, and the foot may come off the accelerator a bit. Or we might find steely-nerved motivation.
But the bottom line is that special elections don't tend to draw the iffy voters. It's about voter education and organization and turnout. From what we saw in the state when we were there the weekend before Election Day, Democrats had the edge. Keep an eye on the organizing stories from Georgia. They may be determinative.
[UPDATE] Many commenters seem to be missing the forest for the trees. Runoff, special election... a distinction without a difference. These are races not on the main election day when turnout is large. These are elections unto themselves on different days that attract fewer overall votes. Votes aren't fewer because it's a runoff or because it's a special election. Votes are fewer because it's not when the Big Election Day takes place that's in everyone's mind. Even primaries attract many fewer voters than general election days. Special elections, runoffs, these take special effort. Many more people will not take the effort to show up. The question is, will more Chambliss voters drop off or will more Martin voters drop off? That's the unknown. In wave years I'd tend to bet with the wave party, but I'm nowhere near ready to conclude Martin will win.
11.13.2008
Runoffs All About Enthusiasm, GOTV
@ 3:45 PM
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193 comments
Okay, you've got me begging here. Which ballot was the most likely to produce an undervote in the Minnesota Senate race?
So it comes down to if old Saxby can rile up his racists again.
I doubt it, since Obama isn't on the ticket.
the wire is the greatest show ever
My fear, though, is that black voters who were extremely jazzed up about Obama will not turn out with anything like the same enthuasiasm for Jim Martin, no matter how nicely the cute, bushy-tailed Obama volunteers ask them...
Obama needs to be engaged in this race. If he is, then we stand a chance. If not, we'll lose.
Ed -- If you look carefully through the thread on the ballot design, at 6:17 pm on 11/11 you'll see a comment by someone named Nate followed by the letter B.
Bonny
wv: sostats
Cazayoux is a rather terrible example, with Jackson in that race.
@another mike
Meh. There might be some sense that Jim Martin isn't going to win, no matter what, and that perhaps Obama's first political fight shouldn't be for a losing cause.
That said, I hated Saxby Chambliss well before he did Max wrong. I'd love to see him lose his seat, but I'm not holding my breath.
Cazayoux probably would have won if it weren't for Jackson - while Cassidy won by about 8 points, I cannot see any Jackson voters having voted for Cassidy and almost all of them would have voted for Cazayoux.
I think the Lieberman effect may play out here. If they pull his chairmanship the base is energized and works harder for this one. If they let him keep the chairmanship the volunteer enthusiasm drops. If the MN and AK seats fall dem between now and then and this race is clearly for seat 60, I think enthusiasm goes up on both sides and rep wins.
I think Thaddeus has it about right. Obama's victory was anchored by unprecedented AA support and by a wave of enthusiastic young voters. This Martin dude holds none of Obama's appeal and I think Chambliss will win easily, in a walk.
Obama's victory was all about the cult of his personality. Unlike the Reagan Revolution and the subsequent Contract with America which were both ideological and policy based, Obama's campaign was about "us" and without "him" "us" won't bother going to the polls.
Maybe the Dems can still buy off Lieberman.
Can't Obama do something actively motivate the african american turnout?
Remember, this is a state that Obama lost. So, even if he does stimulate his own maximum turn-out, it's still not enough.
Georgia FAQ:
- Who can vote in the runoff? Can folks register now?
- Will there be early voting?
- How about absentee voting?
- Will the number of polling places and locations vs. the General Election change?
You guys assume Suxby's minions will all turn out as well. The fact that Obama's NOT on the ballot probably will stop a lot of his racists, and old traditional voters probably won't go, even if they go every election day.
ive seen martin's picture on tv-what was the martin campaign thinking?
martin looked worn out before the runoff and i suspect so will most of the voters be.
still it has been a strange year in politics why should it change now?
This another one you can call safe dem.
The Obama machine is like nothing on earth and demands an encore.
thlexpa - a talent for correctly pronouncing difficult words.
anyone heard anything out of AK?
Someone posted previously (not verified, but makes sense) that only voters who already cast ballots can vote in the runoff, not the entire universe of registered GA voters.
Fingers crossed - Martin's one of the good guys, beyond the simple virtue of not being Saxby Chambliss. (Example).
Hopefully McCain won't be doing much support work here, because a) it was he who denounced Chambliss in 2002, and b) a Chambliss win would kick his buddy Joe Lieberman to the curb, but a Martin win would assure his chairmanship.
I've seen some Obama-centric TV advertising for Martin already, fwiw.
I heard that they've counted 2 votes so far in Alaska today.
Possibly one more vote by this evening.
@aunt karen, if this were a lost cause then I'd agree that there's no reason for Obama to get involved. But, I would certainly NOT call this race a lost cause. Martin finished behind Chambliss by only 3%. Many a runoff has been won by a candidate who has finished much, much farther behind in the first election. Sean is right--it's all about enthusiasm and turnout. Democrats have generally had the upper hand in special elections over the last few years and there's no reason to believe that they cannot do it again in GA if everyone pulls together.
I'm glad to see Sean still posting. After that yard-sign post(rant?) which was quickly pulled down I was afraid Nate might have taken drastic action. I love reading Sean's ground-game coverage/analysis.
The early voting window is only a 3 day week, due to Thanksgiving. But they can get a lot done in 3 days.
Can I have a link or repost to the earlier ON THE ROAD Georgia piece?
thanks!
Sorry for beating this drum a third time, but a runoff is not a special election.
I have looked at runoff turnout, both in the US and in other countries where they are more common.
Runoffs that appear competitive (i.e. it was close in the first round) and that are to important offices (for example president or, in the US, big-city mayor) typically actually have higher turnout than the first round.
That may not apply here, of course. Although it has happened before, voters are not accustomed to runoffs for Senate seats. There is no doubt, however, that this runoff is a lot higher-stakes than the one in 1992.
Still, the fact that the incumbent missed the 50%+1 threshold by such a narrow margin leads me to think turnout will be depressed, but not nearly as much as in 1992. There just is so little chance of a come-from-behind win in this case--even before we look into the ideological position of voters who chose a candidate who did not qualify for the runoff.
sherwick you are kidding arent you? 2 votes?
oh dear!
darn sorry i missed sean and the yard sign post...
but i do very much appreciate his
writings.
@thene, Lieberman won't be affected whatsoever by whether Martin wins or not. His fate will be decided by the Democratic caucus next week--well before the Martin-Chambliss runoff.
does anyone here know how much play the cleland ads and the ensuing controversy got in GA? is it even remembered? just wondering if that means much to voters, especially since they voted for chambliss back then when it happened
Scot
Hey you are right. It IS Sean.
Sean you are the greatest. but what are you doing here? You should be out there reporting on the Martin ground game.
No rest for the wicked.
dismsil - to saturate all around with spit.
@mss, to be an accurate comparison, you need to look at only runoffs after a general election for president, or at least governor or senator. I'm extremely skeptical that runoffs for lower offices ever come close to the same turnout when the general coincides with an election for a higher office.
This is not a "special election"; it's a run-off. Both candidates already have teams in the field and they are not starting from scratch.
The exact impact of that fact is unclear, but comparisons to special elections, although they do have some things in common, are not completely on point. Chambliss will have no difficulty raising money, since the GOP will be fighting hard to keep the Dems from getting 60 in the senate and will calling on all of their big contrbutors to help.
The Dems have 58 now if the Alaska results hold up, and we shall see what happens in in Minnesota, but for most the the cmapign in GA, the results of the rcount will not be known. (They may not be known by the time the electionis held).
wv= bipublas
I'm not going there, but "bi" is the operative syllable.
Alaska Update:
Now 2 and a half votes counted so far today.
They're on a coffee break now though.
@ livemild, the Cleland ad is old news in GA. It really doesn't mean anything to GA voters. It's prime relevance is as a fundraising tool for Martin.
they are on a coffee break? isnt it almost one? they should be just returning from lunch and now i hear that they are also doing coffee????
they must be getting paid by the hour not paid per vote.
sherwick,
spoke to a friend on the counting team and they realized they had over-counted by one vote. It's back to one and a half votes counted.
Another Mike - I believe Jim Martin is also a Vietnam veteran, which might help the issue's resonance (and help him in other ways too).
I'm still guessing this'll go to the incumbent unless Obama makes a couple of visits here personally. That could rile up the racist vote, for sure, but it'll keep the Dems more motivated than the Chambliss crowd, for sure.
Today Steven's pollster says it is basically all over for Stevens, not much of a chance for a win.
bull arpaio
damn! i just got the news about that too.
As a just-barely-not-Georgia resident I agree--the Cleland campaign isn't getting much play that I can see. People do remember, though.
In the ads I've seen so far Chambliss has practically draped Obama around Martin's neck. I do think it would be a mistake for Obama to campaign for Martin or for Martin to invoke Obama in his advertising because that would just rile up Chambliss's base and increase THEIR turnout. GOTV is the way to go here.
VC - I kinda thought that at first too, but my husband pointed out that Martin's ads featuring Obama, promising to work with him, etc, weren't aimed at our Republican neighbours here in Gingrich country, but were an attempt to motivate the Atlanta voters who might not turn out for some old white-guy veteran who wanted to get in the Senate. Will Obama still be riling up the Chambliss base now he's President-elect? I'm not sure it will - he didn't rile up the base enough for McCain to win the election nationally, did he? - but I'm probably not the best judge of that. I mean, I assume the DNC has focus groups to gauge the potential response to this kind of thing?
At least this year Chambliss probably can't get away with slamming the Vietnam vet as being soft and unpatriotic. Probably.
@vc in al, Martin has already put together an ad tying himself to Obama. He's definitely not running away from Obama. I also saw a recent Chambliss ad where he invoked the spector of Nancy Pelosi and Chuck Schumer, but was notably silent on Obama.
wv: chroty, I think I had a little of that in my lungs last week when I was suffering a bad cold.
Maybe, maybe not. It's possible we're getting a different set of ads (out of Columbus) than you are. McCain didn't get elected but he did carry Georgia and did so by a bigger margin than Chambliss did.
Last word verification: factli, the noun form of "truthiness".
It sounds like Sean is making his case that he'll be better at this race than nate's.
Developing...
Libertarian ideology and the 60th vote stakes will drive turnout up.
Ideologically, the libertarians have to come out against -anybody- getting 60, don't they? (I'm not one.) And they lean GOP anyway in GA.
If this is vote number 60, that will loom almost as large as a presidential in many people's minds. After all, it's nearly full control of a branch of government.
I think turnout will stay high, and I think we (D) lose.
(But it's still worth tryin' like hell to win.)
Keep in mind that (this was just on CNN) one poll has Obama at 75% favorable - the highest any president-elect has had since this started being polled (Reagan was in the mid-60s).
Even in GA his favorable could easily be 55-60%. So Chambliss going on an attack-Obama mode might not exactly be the ticket to victory.
sherwick
if Begich wins AK and Franken wins Minnisota, how much will Nate's projections be out?
...sorry, spelt Minnesota wrong. Or Minisoda.
60 Democratic senators is not a magic number. 60 votes on any particular issue is important. There's likely to be Democratic defections and Republican pick ups depending on the issue. I'm extremely skeptical that Georgians will be all that worked up by whether this race may give Democrats 60, rather than 59, senators. Besides, the MN recount will still be ongoing when Georgians go to the polls so this race will be for 59, not 60.
Mrs B:
Nice to see you here. you are one of the few left wingers with nay manners.
I eamnt of course "any" (not nay!) manners!!!
And I meant "meant" not "eamnt"! Ahem
I only wish the Georgia Republican party was in shambles like the Virginia Republican party was during the election. GOTV for President-Elect Obama was outstanding.
wv - imelsigo, i lost the election, so imelsigo back to alaska
What was the "yard sign" post mentioned above?
Another Mike said:
to be an accurate comparison, you need to look at only runoffs after a general election for president, or at least governor or senator.
Yes, I agree. Most of the runoffs I am thinking of (in the USA) occur with a general election (i.e. the first round was at primary time).
I may not have ever compiled data on US runoffs that follow the November general. They happen regularly in Louisiana, right? Otherwise, not so often.
Runoff, special election... a distinction without a difference. These are races not on the main election day when turnout is large.
Sean, it may seem pedantic to you, but some of us who do election analysis for a living do care about conceptual precision.
A special election is (in most cases, anyway) a one-shot contest (plurality rule) to fill a position on an interim basis. A runoff is the conclusion of an election for a full-term.
They may be comparable, but the nature of comparison is that we start off with a recognition that the things being compared are different. And then we analyze whether they behave in a similar (or perhaps even the same) way.
I would submit that there are rather different variables affecting turnout here than in a special election. Whether that implies greater or lesser turnout that the special elections you cite, I do not know.
Another Mike said...
60 Democratic senators is not a magic number. 60 votes on any particular issue is important. There's likely to be Democratic defections and Republican pick ups depending on the issue.
True- the exception would be Supreme Court appointments, which are going to be the most critical votes in Obama's term.
..or terms
forget my silly comments mrs b, let's just have some good sex together! Please provide your address and telephone munber.
I aemnt 'number!' Gdo!
Hey Nate,
I'm wondering if any of your simulations turned up the actual final presidential result, including Omaha. I was wondering the day after the election how many had Missouri red and Indiana blue, but the addition of Nebraska makes it even more intriguing.
So what was your model's correct prediction percentage? Did any of them call it that way?
MSS - You seem very lecturey, and upset about something. It seems you think I'm unaware of the difference between a runoff and a special election, which is an odd conclusion.
Turnout on December 2 is going to be well off the pace of November 4, because elections off the main general election date get substantially lower turnout as a rule.
Forest for the trees, man.
Nick - The original instigator of the yard sign post on DK - a frontpager who is paid a healthy salary and health insurance to blog there - started calling our photographer Brett an "asshole" and an "asswipe" and us "jerkasses" in Brett's personal DK diary because he factually told the story of how our yard sign reply aided in our access and coverage. It was up briefly this weekend, but we decided to pull it and save the fight for something else. While we're correct, he's small potatoes. It's no big deal.
h0tbl4ckd3s14t0? How can you be posting here? I thought you were spending a year dead for tax reasons?
hey poli-sci statistics nerds!
interesting electoral mapping:
http://www.sciam.com/article.cfm?id=electoral-results-maps
WV: reheaver- something you do in college more than once at the porcelain alter.
Unless Obama picks Bernadine Dohrn for a judge position, he will never have any problem getting any confirmed.
The GOP will not be able to deliver 40 votes on cloture. And there will be wheel and deal room - unlike Bush, Obama likely will listen to recommendations from Repub Sens (as pre-Bush was the norm) for these positions.
Any news on Franken's chances? Now that Begich is looking solid it all comes down to Franken and Martin... LETS DO IT.
Nagging on about Obama security, I'm glad he does not plan to go to Georgia where someone exercising his 2nd amendment rights might have a large assault rifle and an agenda: oldish news, but more accurate (thanks Brits, usually more interested in literacy):
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/newstopics/uselection2008/sarahpalin/3405336/Sarah-Palin-blamed-by-the-US-Secret-Service-for-death-threats-against-Barack-Obama.html
[Palin] attracted criticism for accusing Mr Obama of "palling around with terrorists" ...
The attacks provoked a near lynch mob atmosphere at her rallies, with supporters yelling "terrorist" and "kill him" until the McCain campaign ordered her to tone down the rhetoric.
But it has now emerged that her demagogic tone may have unintentionally encouraged white supremacists to go even further.
The Secret Service warned ... they had seen a dramatic increase in the number of threats against the Democratic candidate, coinciding with Mrs Palin's attacks.
....
Details of the spike in threats to Mr Obama come as a report last week by security and intelligence analysts Stratfor, warned that he is a high risk target for racist gunmen. It concluded: "Two plots to assassinate Obama were broken up during the campaign season, and several more remain under investigation. We would expect federal authorities to uncover many more plots to attack the president that have been hatched by white supremacist ideologues."
Irate John McCain aides, who blame Mrs Palin for losing the election, claim Mrs Palin took it upon herself to question Mr Obama's patriotism, before the line of attack had been cleared by Mr McCain.
Interesting sideline:
US priest: No communion for Obama supporters
Meg Kinnard, Associated Press, 11/13/08
A Roman Catholic priest has told parishioners they should refrain from receiving Holy Communion if they voted for Barack Obama because the Democratic president-elect supports abortion, and supporting him "constitutes material cooperation with intrinsic evil."
http://my.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20081113/491bb450_3426_1335020081113-785506066
Way to go; will backfire like Dole/Hagan!
Threadjack Warning:
With all the talk of not needing 60 D's, but 60 votes, what do you guys think are the chances that Snowe and Collins could be persuaded to actually change party ID? What would Obama/Reid have to offer to make it happen? Lieberman's chairmanship???
You can even argue its the best way for them to serve their constituents.
The Rethuglicans in Alaska are trying to figure out how to steal the election for their beloved Sen. Felon. After counting half the remaining outstanding votes yesterday, a herculean task for a state unused to self-governance, they spent the whole day today drafting the following letter which they posted on their website. Such hard work.
News Release for Immediate Release
November 13, 2008
CONTACT: Gail Fenumiai, Director (907) 465-4611
Shelly Growden, Election Systems Manager (907) 451-2872
Final Counting Schedule Determined
The Division of Elections still has over 40,000 ballots to be counted by the statutory deadline of
November 19th.
The division has received several inquiries asking why it is taking so long to count ballots. “With
over 90,000 ballots that needed to go through the statutorily mandated review process, as well as
conducting a duplicate voter review, the division is quite pleased that we can announce we are
ahead of the statutory deadline for reviewing and counting the absentee and questioned ballots,”
said director, Gail Fenumiai.
The outstanding ballots that remain will be counted as follows:
• Region I, Juneau – will count all remaining questioned ballots on Friday, November 14th
at 1:00pm and all remaining absentee ballots on Tuesday, November 18th at 9:00am.
• Region II, Anchorage – will count all remaining absentee and questioned ballots on
Tuesday, November 18th at 10:00am.
• Region II, Wasilla – will count all remaining questioned ballots at 8:00am and remaining
absentee ballots at 1:00pm on Friday, November 14th.
• Region III, Fairbanks – will count all remaining questioned ballots and possibly some of
the remaining absentee ballots on Friday, November 14th at 11:00am. Any absentee
ballots that do not get counted on November 14th will be counted on Monday, November
17th at 10:00am.
• Region IV, Nome – will count all remaining absentee and questioned ballots on Friday,
November 14th at 8:00am.
The Lt. Governor also has the initials "SP," and it's obvious he desperately wants to be Governor, and have his boss take over Sen. Felon's seat.
The US Senate will be the final arbiter of the idiocy which has become the Alaska election for US Senate.
Time to agree that the AIP should be allowed to run a referendum to take Alaska out of the Union. And on the way they can take Utah, Wyoming and Oklahommie.
What a bunch of trailer trash rednecks.
Do the Ozarks run through Alaska?
Susan Collins is a conservative Repub; Snowe is more moderate.
Norm Coleman is more moderate (or at least will play that way) if he is reelected.
Snowe is better as a Repub - she is invulnerable in Maine, and her voting independently and not being penalized will be a good sign for the handful of Sen Repubs who want to do that from time to time.
I agree with Sean that the GA run-off is no different to a special election.
I cannot accept that rational voters will make different choices in an election depending on whether the term to be served is a full one or the remainder of someone else's. Under what circumstances would it be rational to consider that someone from party A would be the right choice to serve 18 months but that someone from party B would be better for 72 months? If you can conceive of such circumstances, are they not so exceptional that normal electoral analysis methods would fail?
Where there is a very significant difference between run-offs and specials is when the run-off happens as a matter of course. No-one ever achieves a majority in the first round of voting in a French Presidential election, so there is always a run-off. The electorate have that expectation and behave accordingly. If GA had a history of multi-candidate elections in which it was rare for anyone to achieve 50% at the first attempt, then it would indeed be correct to make the distinction between a run-off and a special. But since there is no such consistent history in GA, it makes considerably more sense to treat the run-off as an unscheduled, unexpected election, ie a special.
I think the Alaskans are trying to steal the election for Palin, not for Stevens. Either they are Palinistas who want to up her profile nationally (if such is possible), or they are anti-Palin, and just want her out of the state where she can do less harm.
Check out the Georgia Secretary of State and its Election Center 2008 pages – nearly impossible to find any information whatsoever on the runoff. Basically, they just give you the dates, no SWAB links, no instructions. I guess they don't want anybody to vote but the white people in exurban nursing homes.
well now im really pissed off at AK. no voting updates today?
did palin tell them to wait so a begich win wouldnt distract from the parade she is manufacturing in miami?
@susan:
That priest who warned parishioners who voted Obama that they shouldn't take communion was right here in Greenville, South Carolina, probably one of the least Catholic towns in the country. Of course I don't recall similar warnings against voting for Republicans who support "enhanced interrogation techniques".
@thene:
Why not? It worked against Cleland.
wv: aback Many of us have been taken there.
something semi-interesting I just noticed is that Obama won every tipping point state except for Missouri
Sean Quinnipiac: you should have replied to the jerkass who called you 'jerkass': "if I'm such a jerkass, why is 'assmole' my friend?" That would have confused the 'f' out of him! That goes for anyone else on 538 who ever has the misfortune to be called anything 'ass-related'. or even 'arse-related'.
Ben -
Obama won every state he and McCain campaigned in after their conventions. Basically, McCain was just wasting his time. That really must be the most stinging thing to him looking back.
The PA results (11 point margin) are the final proof that the more he campaigned in a state, the worse he did (and interestingly, he didn't spend that much time in Missouri).
And all that campaigning in Indiana really cost him the state.
Glad to see the Barack-slide end today with the Dow actually posting a gain! First real sign of strength since the election was decided.
It is my recollection that when incumbents or better-known candidates are forced into a run-off it is often bad news for them. The folks who come back to vote again are the 1) folks who always vote no matter what, and 2) the folks who are highly motivated - usually the folks who are mad or true believers.
Another factor to consider is where there are other hot run-offs around the state that may bring out higher percentages of voters. There are statewide runoffs for Court of Appeals and for Public Service Commission -- not exactly races to bring out the masses. Are there any other run-offs around the state that might give one of the Senate candidates a bit of a boost? I haven't heard of any. Wish there were a hot race in Atlanta, Savannah, or Macon.
Turning out the Democrats is the key. Surely Obama's troops can turn 'em out to turn Shameless out!
Do it for Max!
Wow some familiar faces. Glad to see you stutter it's been a long time. I'm confident Chambliss will win his runoff and yes it's about time that the Dow went up. I hope that the last week isn't a sign of the Obama Presidency
@stutter
Not sure if you were serious but some people are. There was no Barack-slide:
http://greenmonkeysays.blogspot.com/2008/11/market-commentary-on-post-election-sell.html
So apparently Hillary is being considered for SOS. He better pick her, or she better publicly deny she wants it, or he's going to revive the PUMA movement. *sigh*
What's happened to the vote count in Alaska? There haven't been any updates on their website for ages.
OT, but BP related: Fire Joe Morgan is no more.
Concur with those who think that Obama needs to keep his distance from this race. He has a country to run and he needs to move beyond campaign mode. I'd like to hear Joe Lieberman take a stand against Saxby Chambliss. This might be a good acid test to see if Lieberman is capable of attacking the 'opposition.'
Andy JS said...
What's happened to the vote count in Alaska? There haven't been any updates on their website for ages.
Alaska decided to slow down the vote count so that it takes 6 years to complete. That way Sen. Felon can continue to hold onto it.
Actually, they are going to count a couple of votes tomorrow and some more on Monday or Tuesday. But they are in no rush. Princess Sarah is not in the state right now, and they basically have little else to do. They are waiting for Karl Rove to show them how to steal the election.
"Glad to see the Barack-slide end today with the Dow actually posting a gain! First real sign of strength since the election was decided."
The market has been on "buy on rumor" "sell on news" for most of the year now. It went up leading to the election, which meant the value was priced in by the time the election happened. Then investors did some profit-taking (cashed out their gains) and it dipped again.
It's just the way it's been working.
(well, that and hedge funds having to generate cash in a panic causing huge dips here and there)
If Franken wins in Minnesota, anyone who believes that Georgia will be anything but a gigantic media blitz and grass roots effort to maximize turnout is either dreaming or one of the few remaining desperate republicans.
Saxby Chambliss will probably win this run-off election. I don't see the Democrats generating any kind of turnout to flip this race. The average Democratic voter does not see the importance of a 60 seat majority in the Senate. Of which there really isn't due to defections on both sides. However the Republicans still have something to unite against because Sean Hannity and Bill O' Riley blow it out of porportion.
My very new, probably awful blog:
http://youngerpolitics.blogspot.com/
"Whats happened to the vote count in Alaska?"
They were never scheduled to count today. Counting will continue Friday, and continue Monday and Tuesday - by which time we should have an outcome. The "final" count will be on the 19th and pick up any absentees that have arrived by mail.
Some of this schedule is driven by state law and some by the logistics of sending paper ballots by mail, which is all by air. Most of Alaska, geographically speaking, has no roads and it is already winter. The only thing different this year is that having 1/3rd of the votes cast early and absentee was unprecedented, and it kind of overwhelmed the system.
Mayor Begich was on Rachel Maddow this evening and was pretty complimentary of the way the system is working. There is no Republican conspiracy. Both camps have staffers and lawyers keeping an eye on things.
Begich did say they counted 60 some votes today and he picked up another ten. So its an 824 vote lead now.
In regard to what's been counted and what hasn't, according to the Begich campaign:
"The majority of the early votes and absentee in person, some question ballots and some mail in absentee ballots have been counted in:
Ketchikan
Juneau
Anchorage
Eagle River
Mat-Su
Fairbanks
Valdez
Military bases
Kodiak
Whole Kenai Peninsula
What hasn't been counted
Nothing in districts 2, 5, 6, and 37-40 which includes:
Petersburg
Sitka
Rural Southeast
Cordova
Yakutat
Interior Alaska
Dillingham
Bethel
Nome
Kotzebue
Barrow
Unalaska (entire chain)"
What this means is that the votes from predominantly Republican areas have mostly been counted, while all or nearly all of the places the are still to be counted are rural and were carried by Begich on election day. So it appears really good for Begich, and out of reach for Stevens.
The Minnesota result won't be known until AFTER the run-off, unless one of them call off the recount and concede, which we know won't happen.
Like I said...
Glad to see the Barack-slide halt today with the 552 point gain on the Dow.
I can ask a MORON to spot on the charts when Obama won the election, and they can simply point to the top of the slope that has since become the Barack-slide.
The markets are forward looking. They don't like the witches brew of higher taxes on small businesses on up, the prospect of opressive regulation, and the prospect of a more confiscatory capital gains policy. Investors take one look at that and want to get the fuck out. Simple.
stop-the-stutter: the markets are basically exactly where they were 8 years ago when bush took office. during clinton's 8 years the dow went up over 3X.
i bet by the time the next election comes around - the markets will have fully recovered.
The market has been on "buy on rumor" "sell on news" for most of the year now. It went up leading to the election, which meant the value was priced in by the time the election happened. Then investors did some profit-taking (cashed out their gains) and it dipped again.
Profit taking doesn't lead to new lows. It usually reaches a fibbonaci retracement and then stablizes. This is a Barack-slide. Arguably started when the writing was on the wall as to who would win the election 6 weeks out.
josh,
You must not be old enough to remember when, and under who's watch the dot-com bubble burst.
Oh, good. It's a disgruntled stutter-stopper.
Should the dot-com bubble have been stopped from bursting?
As I recall, that bubble arose because VCs were throwing money into questionable business models that all started failing because of oversaturation of services and stores vs. number of potential consumers. Bill Clinton was the president for that. Bush presided over the housing bubble burst, which was well on its way before Obama became the nominee. What's your point?
Still, the markets responded well to the surge of dot-com businesses and stock trading, even if the companies were insubstantial.
I also seem to recall that outside the dot-com industry, people/markets were doing all right. Compare to today, where the economy's going to hell because of financial institutions having huge difficulties, and where, arguably, Obama had nothing to do with other economic factors contributing to the slide, so you can stop pushing the Dow Jones as proof of anything.
the only value in 60 is padding for keeping the majority. i would be surprised if a single cloture vote occurred along strict party lines.
wv: emingali - eminem's sister.
PeteKent
"Manners" would be admitting when you're wrong.
Do you plan on starting, or do you plan on lecturing us about how to back up your arguments with cited facts?
(You still haven't admitted that your "Palin is more popular than Obama" tripe was nothing more than oft-repeated garbage.)
One of FiveThirtyEights Greatest Hits
BREAKING: Obama Campaign Organizers Trying To Win Election Instead of Get You Yard Signs
by Sean Quinn
Woah, one day, and less then 102 comments. The election must still be over.
And as for trolls such as PeteKent, it's rather clear he'll never be satisfied with an Obama presidency, no matter what Obama does. Lets ignore him, and talk in a more constructive fashion.
We've won the election, but still need to change the world.
Hey, it's kind of, well, NICE to see the real PeteKent around. (Not the deranged sockpuppet.) Lets me know everything is all right with the world:
1. Some loser cuts and pastes talking points from right-wing-nut-job.o'reilly.com
2. Some posters mistakenly think that the loser wrote his own post
3. Other posters mistakenly think that the loser BELIEVES his own post
4. Someone posts DNFTT
5. Repeat cycle.
I take comfort in this routine. Meanwhile, the election went as well as any of us reasonable people wanted it to.
G'nite.
proudfoot will have to change himself before he starts changing the world.
the people who are obsessed by 'sockpuppets' and 'trolls' will change the world! Watch out, world!
Do you think I could get away with calling myself "last"? At least for tonight?
Market went up and up in anticipation of Obama, then down in correction, but mostly it's about other stuff. I don't think it's right to call this rollercoaster about elections at the moment, it's more about incompetence. There is also the problem that the rich are circling the wagons; they want to make sure of their bonuses and high compensation before they share. Profit taking has removed a lot of the real value from the market into the hands of the superrich, so the market is trying to find out if there's anything worth anything left. This is a bunch of amateur late night spouting, so please forgive.
These last 3 2008 senate races remind me of the 1975 World Series. Reggie Jackson, #44, took 3 swings in game 6, each resulting in a home run. After the 1st homer, Jackson looked into the camera an held up 1 finger. After the 2nd homer, 2 fingers, and after #3, 3 fingers. It looks like Alaska is about to allow #44 to raise his first finger.
A Chambliss loss would be devastating to Repubs, losing the filibuster option. A Chambliss win would be something to hang their hats on, perhaps a vestige of hope for the future of the party.
60 would be nice for the Dems, but Obama can drive his proposals home with 58 or 59.
Looks like Begich won Alaska and Minnesota is still way too close. You can bet the Repubs will be pulling out all the stops in Georgia.
My money's on Chambliss.
thanks wa7th for the link.
as a yard sign fan i cant say i cared for the article.
as a advertising artist i really didnt care for the article.
anyone who thinks that having your name out there is not ADVERTISING has a screw loose. Anyone who thinks that engaging voters in whatever means possible does not help their candidate has a screw loose.
anytime you can get the customer (voter) to sell your product (candidate) you have really accomplished something.
i cant say enough good things about the obama ground game but they were obsessed. people were being contacted three and four times...im not so sure that kind of obsession really helped obama
good morning 538' staff and addicted!
:)
Officials:
Hillary Clinton eyed for Sec. of State.
http://www.usatoday.com/news/politics/2008-11-14-hillary-state_N.htm
what do you think ?
-good ?
-not good ?
-don't know ?
I have just read the posts from yesterday. I think I'm in trouble.
Pete Kent wants to have sex with me!
That's what I get for being polite!
wv flreact - what you do when Pete Kent says he wants to have sex with you!
off topic here
but do people think obama will get bogged down in afghanistan - people in the uk are getting worried.
It is another unwinnable war - what is it he's hoping to acheive there?
I mean great if he gets osama but lets face it that old guy is probably dead - what else is there to do there?
reassure me he has more sense than to
destroy all that hope over this. Remember Russia and Britain in their pomp both came away losers when trying previouslt to subdue this land.
looking for a job ?
You may find one in Obama's administration,apply here:
http://www.change.gov/page/s/application
...well,I am tempted,it would be an amazing experience .
Mrs B said...
I have just read the posts from yesterday. I think I'm in trouble.
Pete Kent wants to have sex with me!
***********
I think it was a sockpuppet.
looks like PK doesn't have spare time to have sex,given that he is always writing on 538'.
...well maybe He can have on-line sex...
:P
@mrs b
Almost certainly someone who noticed how Pete was getting a tad - well, involved - and posted a logical follow on.
I think the guys are right that Pete lives alone in his parents' basement - doesn't get out much and never gets to meet any women. But has been brought up to be polite to women - is far more so to you than to male posters. Plus you took the time to engage with him.
I think the ocean is wide enough for you to feel fairly safe for now.
This has been the most disgusting media display ever. For all the talk of how they acted as Obama conduits in the campaign, what they have done since this election is appalling. The amount of coverage of who the Repubs will run in 2012 and the amount of stories like this CBS poll (which are completely silly without context) is startling when the new president is 2 months from actually taking office. When will the media realize that unfdermining an administration before it even gets going isn't news, it's just silly
The media is really sick, they are already pushing a 2012 election before Obama gets into office. The more we see of Palin the better for the democrats, she is really the face of republicans, she gives a good speech but she is really to dumb to answer any question of substance.
Fox news is still pushing the theme that OBAMA is a mystery man who may destroy America if you read between the lines. O`relly was on the daily show pushing the same theme, who is Barak Obama.
They won`t give this guy a break, from day one he will be hounded by
the so called liberal media.
anyone got any views on how Palin did at the Repub governors' conference in FL?
Mrs. B, Jonathan Martin at Politico.com calls her "overwhelming" and somewhat schitzophrenic: http://www.politico.com/news/stories/1108/15606.html
And Joel, Fox should not surprise you. Remember, they got their start as an opposition network under Clinton.
If Obama campaigns for Martin, and
Saxby Chambliss (who McCain has all
the time in the world to campaign for) wins, it will look like McCain wins round #2.
It looks now like the best thing for America is for there to be a revolt.
There needs to be an all out slaughter of liberals. Complete genocide before they do it to conservatives first.
Sure, it's despicable to think about the murder of millions of people, but if that's what it takes.
Liberals should be shot on sight. Snuffed out and destroyed!
Death to liberals!!!
We will kill you!
We will kill you!
"PeteKent said...
Obama's victory was all about the cult of his personality. Unlike the Reagan Revolution and the subsequent Contract with America which were both ideological and policy based, Obama's campaign was about "us" and without "him" "us" won't bother going to the polls."
LOL! "Rage, Rage, against the desperate spinning of the right!"
Normally, I don't respond to our right-wing trolls because it only encourages them. But, take a look at this case of blatant projection because it gives the right-wing theme for the next 8 years and beyond. We won't be rid of this argument until sometime around 2014, if then.
See, Obama just ran the MOST issues based campaign in recent American history and his win was a triumph of PROGRESSIVE IDEAS and absolutely BLATANT proof that America is no longer that right-wing fantasy of a "center-right" nation. In fact, it's center-left at least on economic policy.
What the POLLING shows about this election: http://www.ourfuture.org/report/2008114507/change-election-2008
"A survey of 2,000 voters taken during and immediately after the November 4, 2008, general election shows that Sen. Barack Obama’s historic victory in the presidential race spearheaded a sea-change election. It marks the end of the conservative era that has dominated our politics since 1980 and the beginning of a new era of progressive reform, driven by an emerging progressive majority."
But the right can't admit that, because it would mean that CONSERVATISM has been repudiated, not just Bush/McCain. So, the blatant projection is to pretend that Obama's supporters are some kind of "cult" who engage in "personality worship." (Pretty big "cult" with 52.4% of America)!
See, the South has ALWAYS been about "identity politics" ever since the Reconstruction Era. Southern "exceptionalism" has been the rallying cry for generations! "The Confederate flag isn't a racist symbol It's part of our heritage!" (Never mind that the flag actually disappeared from use for over a century until it magically reappeared as symbol of the South's "massive resistance" to integration during the 1950's).
For over 100 years it was "you outsiders just don't understand Southern institutions!" (Like Jim Crow). The Solid South benefited Democrats, as long as Northern liberals didn't mess with Jim Crow.
Then Johnson passed the civil rights legislation and the South rebelled. Nixon inaugurated the "Southern Strategy" of appealing to white racist fears with "crime" and "welfare" (code-word: "integration = blacks stealing your job and moving into your suburbs = black crime - be afraid! Black 'welfare queens' stealing your tax dollars! Be angry!")
It became so ingrained that Southerners don't even see it and can't believe it.
But STILL in 2008 it's the same old shit:
"You can't be a 'real American' unless you're one of us! "
Northern Virginia is not 'real Virginia!' "I'm proud we get support from the more 'pro-American' parts of the U.S."
Sound familiar? McCain campaign stump speeches! But, this is nothing new. "Us versus them" has been the theme of Southern Politics since the Reconstruction era.
"I still think he's got some Muslim in him!" (McCain supporter confronted by reporters who insisted Obama's a Christian - i.e. "Muslim = Black/Arab/Other/Outsider. Not "one of us (white people)."
When Obama is re-elected conservatives will comfort themselves with saying "he's just an exceptional politician! Conservatism can never be repudiated so WE don't need to change. We just need better propaganda!"
There's an issue with your Cazayoux example.
You're not remembering that on November 4th, he also had to contend with a rogue third party Democrat, Michael Jackson, who siphoned off a good chunk (10-13%) of Cazayoux's African American base.
The May special election was mano-a-mano.
RE: Team of Rivals
It's a no-brainer that OBama would want to consult Hillary and McCain as early as possible to discuss their potential roles goig forward and what they think of propsective candidates for Cabinet positions. It would be a surprise to me if they didn't have early talks to discuss. That said, my question is what potential roles make sense for them? Hillary has been in Washington with a Republican Congress and/or President stopping her agenda for 16 years. She's in a position to spear-head a lot of legislation to mold this country to her liking for probably the next 10 years. With so much to do there, I doubt she'd want to walk away, even for Sec. of State. That said, I think if she would consider it, there's a good chance that opportunity is on the table. There's no other role that I think makes any sense, given her spot as a leader in a powerful Senate. What's particularly intriguing about the other options are A) None of them are likely as good of choices as Hillary and B) if you ranked the alternatives, there's flaws with al of them Lugar's probably first on the list, but doesn't want it, Hagel's likely 2nd, but might prefer to stay retired (both are Republican and likely dependent on what happens with Gates), not going to have State and Defense, both Pubs. Richardson is Hispanic and has a vast resume, but seems a weaker candidate, Kerry seems to make a lot more sense to stay in the Senate. He's certainly owed something. State's probably all that would satisfy him. He's likely qualified, but doesn't fulfill any diversity quota and is probably not the very best candidate either. Kind of a complicated situation. Susan Rice is underqualified for the post. So what to do?
Then there's McCain. If you could find a post for him, that'd be cool. What would make sense though? Probably to be the Republican voice on legislation that OBama would want/need Republican support on like climate change, etc. Staying in the Senate probably makes the most sense for him too. Certainly State and Defense the OBama agenda is incompatible with McCain philosophy. Any thoughts on a potential spot for McCain?
The reality is that Clinton is not a leader in the Senate - she is 2/3s of the way down the Dem seniority list, is the junior Senator from NY, would not be the leader on health insurance issues.
So the reality is that SoS - arguably the 2nd most important job in the executive branch - might be attractive to her.
Why is no one thinking of HRC as Sec. of HHS? Wouldn't that be the best place from which to effect major healthcare change? It's not as glam a job as Sec. of State, but it's much closer to her heart.
I've heard this from others. Sec. of HHS for clinton doesn't make sense to me. As far as being a Junior Senator, you have to remember, she's up for reelection in what 4 years? OBama's likely to be Prez for 8 and with a Dem. Majority in the Senate for most of the next 10 years, certainly the next 6. She's been waiting to get a lot of her agenda through for a long time. She's a powerful voice there. Health Services is not a big enough post in my mind. Obama is not going to do a flatout universal health care like she'd like. Perhaps if that's her sole passion and I know it's top of her list, then she takes it with the plan of implementing the new helath care p[rogrma and then moving on in 2-4 years to a Cabinet position or back in the Senate. It'd be taking a chance and a sacrificing a lot. Also, it would somehow seem underwhelming for her to have that post, unless it was top of the list on the Obama agenda. I know to acertain extent it is, but with all of the other mess right in front of us, it might sick back burner for a little while. I don't know, maybe t makes sense. First term, she spearheads "quasi-universal" healthcare and in 2012, she runs for her Senate seat again or
Eric: you think Jesus will be prez for 8 years? I think I will want change sooner than that. No offence.
No offenSe taken, idiot.
offence with a c, not American? Yeah, I think Obama will likely be Prez for 8 years. You say you'll want change sooner than that, but I bet you didn't vote for him in the first place.
You know you've made it in politico circles when you get featured in a Wonkette blog as "a national hero." Congrats Nate!
http://wonkette.com/404391/national-hero-nate-silver-writing-lots-of-books-for-lots-of
Eric-
Like Deep Throat said, "Follow the money." HHS is the largest domestic outlay. That's power. Any administration-led attempt to get healthcare reform done will come from HHS. That's opportunity. Sometimes, it's not all about "status". This may be one of those times where the highest "status" job may not be the right one from which to do the work you want to do.
He's probably an anti-social chav who's slamming ciders before he goes out to happy-slap some poor Asian.
Best post for McCain is Homeland Security. But the name should be changed to end the Nazi references.
McCain (the Senator, not the Candidate) and Obama see pretty much eye to eye on immigration and much of the rest is preparedness issues. Of course, McCain is a lousy administrator, but he'll have pros under him and he can set the tone.
I would think Hillary would make a better AG then Secretary of State, but she'll probably be America's First Diplomat. Poor John Kerry will have to be satisfied with his crappy Senate seat. And Theresa Heinz's money.
I think Susan Rice will be BHO's National Security Advisor and Cass Sunstein will be his first SCOTUS nominee.
[wv - itiosp - what a dyxlexic chemist sees in ionizing radiation]
no defense taken jeff nycdem. idiot right back at ya.
mason, the only ones getting happy-slapped any time soon are afghans and pakistanis. by obama. you racist prat.
Another article about how the less than anticipated turnout is from Republicans not showing up on Election Day. Turnout in states that Obama won was 5% higher than states won by McCain, although turnout in Colorado and Ohio were down (up most in North Carolina). It also gives the current national PV margin between Obama and McCain as 6.7%.
http://www.boston.com/news/nation/articles/2008/11/14/voter_turnout_didnt_set_record/
And HERE are their numbers. Oooooo! Statheads are going to have a field day with these!
http://www.american.edu/media/electionexperts/election_turnout_08.pdf
http://elections.gmu.edu/preliminary_vote_2008.html
Nope. He's not from the UK. He wouldn't have differentiated between "Afghans/Pakistanis" and "Asians" if he were.
Canadian, probably, since it's pretty early tommorrow morning in Oz.
mason
how come you know about chavs and happy slapping? BTW I don't think you slam cider, only tequila.
Maybe you mean 'swig'?
History Has Been Made
A paper I wrote for my class on Obama's historic night.
From a McCain supporter to my fellow Americans who backed Obama, enjoy it and send it to your friends!
Mrs B-
And you're right. Cider is too good for a chav to slam, swig, or sip. As for how I know about them them, I learned of them, and happy-slapping, the same way you learn of President-Elect Obama and Senator McCain. Ain't the Internet grand?
At least they can't drink on the Tube anymore. I had the distinct pleasure of standing cheek-to-jowl with a number of them leaving Wembley after a match back in May. Somehow, some where, many of the more, uh, Burrburied supporters managed to scrounge up some beverages for not just the train ride, but also for the wait on the platform and the lobby. They were quite proud that their boy Wayne had "unintentionally" stamped someone in a friendly.
oh dear, Man U!
My husband supports them but luckily he and my son prefer rugby.
Still hooligans, but upper and middle class hooligans!
But back to the topic, surely Obama won't personally go and support Martin? Too risky.
Plus Hillary needs a job - BBC radio is even as I type suggesting she will get Sec of State.
Ah yes... Football is a gentleman's game played by hooligans/ruffians/savages/thugs, and Rugby is a hooligan's/ruffian's/savage's/thug's game played gentlemen.
Gotcha!
mason
you got it!
how would you categorise American football?
Nate, you are the greatest. Mere thank yous are inadequate. You deserve a therapist's fee, as fivethityeight was the only thing which kept me from a nervous breakdown.
I've lived in Alaska, where the prevailing attitude is greed...the old "What's in it for me?". Nothing they do would surprise me.
NY Observer says Nate is shopping a book deal (or two)...
Nate's Book Deal
LOL- I'm not going to get into that one Mrs. B!
I will just say this - I've watched a fair bit of many codes of football, and I've yet to see anything matching the brutality and violence of either:
A) A blind-side defensive end beating the blind-side offensive-tackle on a pass rush cleanly and sacking the quarterback from behind. This has to do with the sheer size and speed of these... specimens. It also helps that they get a twenty second break after each tackle. Thus, they can go at full sprint each and every down.
B) A defensive back or linebacker laying the wood on a WR or TE as they cross the field while looking back to catch a pass. This has to do with the pads, and again, the speed of the players. The pads confer upon the players a sense of, "I am INVINCIBLE!" Thus, defensive players use their bodies as weapons, launching themselves off of their feet into flying tackles that would break bones and dislocate joints were they done unprotected.
I'll go with: A reckless sport played by the insane.
Anyone know when we might expect the first update from the Alaska vote count today? I know they are supposed to be doing several shifts of counting.
(Post-election withdrawal and all demands assuagement.)
Nate:
SELLOUT! (j/k)
Hope the book finds a home.
The view in Georgia...
The ads started right after election day and the runoff looked likely.
All of the ads are about Jim Martin. The DEM ads feature Martin as the guy to help Obama with change.
The GOP ads feature Martin as the liberal, tax and spend, liberal, gonna raise your tax, liberal, soft on terrorism, liberal candidate - complete with trailing photos of Martin, Chuck Schumer, and Nancy Pelosi (or as Gerogians refer to this image, the anti Stone Mountain(Lee, Davis, Jackson)).
R_C
WV 'reflo' What happens when you watch Alice on TV Land. 'Kiss my Grits!'
Aaah, Saxby Chambliss. Never going to stop slamming Vietnam veterans as 'soft', you old chickenhawk, are ya? It's interesting that after six years in the Senate, he's got nothing to talk about except the fact that his opponent isn't a complete asshole like he is. Classy and substantial, that's our Suxby.
I've not yet seen any ads talking up Martin's military record...shame, I'm guessing that would play well. I still think his best hope is to get Obama down here to boost the Atlanta turnout. And hell, a strong showing from a President-Elect could even draw over on-the-fence Chambliss voters who like it when their state gets attention.
I also think that a McCain visit could be made to play bad. Very bad. "It's worse than disgraceful, it's reprehensible," looped over and over again, as of the moment he sets foot in the state? I'd take it.
Obama's new administration is taking on a depressing familiar cast.
As much as the media tries to spin this as a desire to get some needed experience, it seems that Obama will wind up being the captive of an old, failed Democratic guard that accomplished little of substance and was preoccupied with their leader’s sexual shenanigans.
With a return to the policy makers of the 90s and the Keynesian economics of the 70s I would not hold out much hope that real change is coming to Washington.
I think the recovery will be slow in coming and Medvedev and Putin seemed bound and determined to test the new kid on the block. In fact they are already pulling his hair and lining up his friends (Sarkozy) against him.
Power abhors a vacuum.
I agree with PeteKent. God forbid we return to the strong economic growth and distinct lack of land-wars-in-Asia of the 1990s! I'd also say that it's impossible, absolutely impossible, for a Democratic president with a hugely Democratic Senate and Congress to accomplish more than Clinton did when he was going up against Newt Gingrich every day.
No, what we needed was another Republican administration to spend all our money on pointless wars and drive the country into an economic sinkhole. Yeah. Totally.
Thene misses the point totally. the conditions that created the economic growth of the 90s all had their foundation in Republican Goevernment, including a Republican Congress that called the shots during both of Clinton's terms.
Now Obama has to deal with a resurgent Russian bear that seems determined to provoke him while he is already facing the prosect of winning two wars -- or at least not lsoing them on his watch.
Worse, Obama has shown no savvy with regard to dealing with the ecnomy as the stock market is clearly showing that American business and industry is dubious of his policies and potential.
Worse, Obama has shown no savvy with regard to dealing with the ecnomy as the stock market is clearly showing that American business and industry is dubious of his policies and potential.
Sure. Today's retail sales report has nothing to do with the stock market's swoon today. Just as unemployment numbers earlier this week had nothing to do with it then. It's all the President-ELECT'S fault. How silly of us to think otherwise.
The vote count in Omaha is in, and Obama has won the EV there by 3,325 votes. Of course, that isn't news for regulars here, but it's nice to see that it is now official.
Oh, and PeteKent, you are so full of sh*t is isn't even funny. The growth of the 1990s was all due to a GOP Congress and the current woes of the stock market are due to worries about what Obama might theoretically do months from now? I guessing that you are just trying to mix things up a bit here, but if you actually believe that rubbish then you are a much bigger idiot than I thought.
Has PeteKent been reduced to a concern troll? Whence those glory days?
The market is responding, and has been, to months of bad economic news. The news keeps getting worse and the job at hand keeps getting tougher. So market continues down. That's the simplest explanation.
What exactly the market thinks of Obama is hard to tell, though recent Quinnipiac polls suggest overall positive.
I'll quote (again) Richard Grinold: "There are two kinds of people: those who don't understand the markets, and those who don't understand they don't understand the markets." That includes all the editorial writers in the WSJ and IBD who offer the most convenient explanation without any convincing analysis.
To quote someone from an earlier thread "a MORON could see from the chart" it's because of Obama. Yes, that is exactly what a moron would see from the chart. Sorry, had to say it.
Its amazing the level of intellectual dishonesty here concerning the equity markets/Barack-slide.
All of the economic news coming out now has been PRICED IN and predicted for going on 2 months now. The market is just now getting a chance to price in the gaggle of tax increases that Obama is hellbent on imposing to the producer/investor class of this country. Only a complete walnut-head could deny that his tax policies are murder for an economy.
It is obvious that people here have little experience dealing with equities markets!
All of the economic news coming out now has been PRICED IN and predicted for going on 2 months now.
Have you noticed how often the phrase, "worse than expected" has been used recently? So have I, and so have the equities markets.
The market is just now getting a chance to price in the gaggle of tax increases that Obama is hellbent on imposing to the producer/investor class of this country.
Obama's victory has been forseen by the investor class, or at least those who bought futures on the race, for months. The last time McCain contracts were more expensive than Obama contracts was during the Palin/Convntion bounce-tailoff and before the Market/Palin-interview Collapse.
I'm in the business. Even if the tax changes go in, it won't be much different from Reagan era.
People cry over diminished power to invest. The so-called investor class blew a lot of their Bush-era tax breaks on McMansions and high-end cars and other luxury spending. If they want to keep investing, let them keep investing and get the 5-series instead of the 7-series. Better yet, buy a Ford.
Second, investing has been democratized quite a bit with the introduction of the internet, growth of 401k, etc. The middle class is more of an investor class than it used to be.
Really, you are only shifting CONSUMPTION, not investing. You may be shifting consumption from French champagne to groceries, or from BMW to Ford, but that's okay.
And sorry, the idea of Obama's economic ideas is what's priced in. What's not fully priced in is continuing economic bad news.
What gives the lie to an "Obama effect" on the markets is that it isn't just the Dow. It's all the markets around the world, and the major shifts are occurring largely in reaction to co-ordinated moves by central banks and an extreme short-term view.
Guessing what US economic policy is going to look like in three or four months time is a small part of the pricing decisions being taken in stock markets when the imperative is to preserve as much value as possible today so that there will be something to invest in three or four months time.
US stocks are affected by growth projections in the eurozone and in Asia as much as they are by US projections, since major US firms depend on those external markets for earnings. And Obama is not setting French or German economic policy just yet.
Whether Obama's plans are any more likely to work than the 'pubs is unknown, but it is ludicrous to attribute this month's market gyrations to people having vague hypotheses about what US policy might be in the future.
green monkey,
how about an exemption on an individual's FIRST earned million from the confiscatory tax rates proposed?
This way people can at least make it to the American Dream, and not get there head smacked down by the taxes before they can make it.
Also, it can more honestly be argued that lower income people use their welfare to by McCrackpipes and McWeed, and then go get their McNails done. So shove your class warfare up your ass. The people in the mansions and cars at least went to work to earn those things. Penalizing their achievement is just wrong.
BTW...you know its a load of crap and garbage that this slide is not mostly caused by the prospect of overtaxation by Obama.
It's all the President-ELECT'S fault. How silly of us to think otherwise.
I'm not one jumping on the "blame Barack early" bandwagon, because I know how economic news filters through and realize there are much more serious things at work here, driving the economy down the toilet, than simply increasing negative perceptions from the market because of his election.
HOWEVER, that said, I find your sarcastic rebuttal funny/ironic, as I've wanted to say something equally snarky when people blame Bush for everything without looking at all the factors in play.
It's (too) easy to blame someone else, particularly to just lay it at the feet of the person who's "in charge" to make them a scapegoat as if they're magically responsible for every single one of our woes.
It takes some guts and intellectual honesty to actually look at the deeper issues at play and fix them from the ground up rather than bitch and moan about what's wrong at the hands of others.
green monkey,
how about an exemption on an individual's FIRST earned million from the confiscatory tax rates proposed?
This way people can at least make it to the American Dream, and not get there head smacked down by the taxes before they can make it.
Also, it can more honestly be argued that lower income people use their welfare to by McCrackpipes and McWeed, and then go get their McNails done. So shove your class warfare up your ass. The people in the mansions and cars at least went to work to earn those things.
Penalizing their achievement is just wrong.
BTW...you know its a load of crap and garbage to say this slide is not mostly caused by the prospect of overtaxation by Obama.
HOWEVER, that said, I find your sarcastic rebuttal funny/ironic, as I've wanted to say something equally snarky when people blame Bush for everything without looking at all the factors in play.
It's (too) easy to blame someone else, particularly to just lay it at the feet of the person who's "in charge" to make them a scapegoat as if they're magically responsible for every single one of our woes.
So you're blaming Bill Clinton, then? ;)
The class warfare rhetoric is one of the most dangerous threats to freedom and democracy right now, and I treat it as such and not too far behind the government's efforts to silence and disarm the public.
Since I'm not seeing any overt attempts, as of yet, to silence and disarm the masses, I treat this class warfare stuff as the serious matter that it is.
If we want to stay the blessed, free nation that we've always been, that kind of bs will subside.
Or, BO and his goons can play it for all it's worth and drag this country further into the crapper and lead us down the same path as the U.S.S.R. and Cuba.
Or more precisely, the Clinton Administration?
Mason,
No. I don't blame Bill Clinton, although he and his policies may have had small hand in this.
I think he was a decent president. Not good, but decent. Of course, I'm probably giving him a hometown discount since we grew up not to far from one another...just in separate decades.
STS-
There's nothing "class warfare" at all about the term McMansion. They're generally middle or upper-middle class housing. The main problems with them are sprawl they cause when they're newly developed, bad lot/house ratio (too big in new dev., too small in infill), their ill-fit into establish neighborhoods (don't build the most expensive home on the block, dumbass), and their ubiquity.
(Has anyone else noticed that STS and MR tend to roll together? Odd.)
stutter and mule rider:
First, you may be surprised that I agree about the ultra-simple progressive tax plan that stutter proposed. People spend their income on 1) basic necessities, 2) luxury items, and 3) investing. I would figure out some reasonable value X for 1) and only tax above that at a flat rate. No need to argue about the specific value of $X. Make it $1MM or $30K per person. In principle I absolutely agree.
About class warfare I am sorry if that's what it sounded like, and I'll assume the references to McCrackpipes etc were just the flippant flip side. People spend money on crack -- welfare recipients and stock brokers alike. It's a problem. But it's not a good reason to favor luxury spending by the rich over trying to get everyone able to afford their basic necessities.
So -- no one's going to propose the flat-tax-above-X plan yet. But guess what, it makes sense to bleeding-heart liberal Obama lovers such as myself. So there's hope yet.
The market is falling in anticipation of Obama?
Now that is stupid. Nether Obama nor McCain are economists. Both would get in specialist help.
The difference is that Obama always gets the best and listens very carefuly.
McCain on the other hand ignores his experts. As prime example - Palin. McCain had a vetting team but didn't use it.
What socialist policies Obama might have put in if things had been better is now more or less imaterial. This presidency will be all about America's survival.
bumens - iregular superlative of bummer.
Here's what I believe:
People should have access to affordable housing, health care, a vehicle, food, utilities, and clothing.
As for housing, it may not be a house at all. It may be an apartment. But people should be able to afford basic and respectable furniture to fill it up with.
Health care. Enough said. For everybody, but don't write the doctors a blank check. There has to be a better way to provide universal coverage, but that's not the point of my rant.
The vehicle. It should be dependable but not necessarily new. Enough to get back and forth to work and run a few errands here and there.
Food. Affordable and a healthy mix that meets USDA/FDA guidelines...even if it's private label, very basic stuff.
Utilities. Access to electricity and running water and reasonable use of heating and cooling.
Clothing. Enough to stay warm, be cool, and present yourself at work or in public.
Notice I said nothing about everybody getting a 4 bed-3 bath-2 car garage pad in the nicest neighborhood in town.
Notice I said nothing about people leaning exclusively on someone else to take care of their health needs.
Notice I said people don't need to be getting a brand new BMW every two years.
Notice I said people can't just eat what they want all the time nor can they eat out or eat fancy all the time.
Notice I said nothing about Internet access, a cable/satellite package, having 4 cell phones, or anoter "amenity" that is an out and out luxury.
Notice I said nothing about designer clothes and/or expensive wear or new clothes.
Is anybody following? Do they see the difference in the two groups? This is where the struggle is and where the class warfare begins.
Hey, I'm all for making everyone one of those top items affordable and to where everybody has access to them.
But this incoming administration, and many of its supporters, seek to demonize, bastardize, and belittle anyone who enjoys many of the things from that second group of items.
"You drive a new car, have a nice house, and have the biggest cable package? You must not have worked for it. You must be exploiting all the rest of us. You need to share the wealth."
That's the mentality and it HAS TO STOP or we will be divided as a country worse than ever before.
Remeber: give a man a fish and you feed him for a day...teach him, and he's fed for a lifetime.
We need to focus our programs on our lower class getting OUT OF the gutter by their own volition with just a little help, but not by handing them everything by hypnotizing the masses to believe that anybody who has anything didn't do anything to deserve it.
green monkey,
As long as reward is a linear function of work/effort, I would support any tax.
I am a strong supporter of alcohol and cigarette taxes because they are voluntary and do not tax one's work.
As for my "McCrackpipe" reference, it was an immediate, deliberate ovvereaction to your characterization of upper-income spending habits. I agree, their are wrong-doers on the top AND bottom of the class structure.
Charity, in my opinion, is a voluntary act. I feel a sense of resentment when I see my tax dollars going to those who expect handouts rather than examining themselves thoroughly as to how they can improve their lives on their own.
It is not just a political attack, IMO, to wonder why Joe Biden considers paying more taxes is "patriotic" when he himself gives a mere pittance in charity. To me, that's awful. To demand by force more money from those who he judges can afford to dole out more, while he doesn't give nearly anything ON HIS OWN to people in need.
At least practice what you preach, other than with money that is not yours.
People spend money on crack -- welfare recipients and stock brokers alike.
Whitney Houston would disagree.
First, you may be surprised that I agree about the ultra-simple progressive tax plan that stutter proposed. People spend their income on 1) basic necessities, 2) luxury items, and 3) investing. I would figure out some reasonable value X for 1) and only tax above that at a flat rate. No need to argue about the specific value of $X. Make it $1MM or $30K per person. In principle I absolutely agree.
Woah.... Flat tax? By definition that's not a progressive tax (adb: a tax where tax rate increases as taxable income increases). I guess it depends on the size of your inital exemption ($X), right? That would be a fight.
Pretty much agree with MR. There's been plenty of living high, but it's no more useful to villify the rich boor than to find and villify the welfare abuser as an argument against welfare.
Obama has talked a lot about creating jobs -- a more direct bottom-up economics, as opposed for waiting for job-creation to trickle down. His rhetoric includes a lot about jobs, work, service, and infrastructure building. That's the real substance of his plan. It's been in the interest of the right to emphasize anything that sounds like class warfare, but that's not what he's proposing.
In 2020:
President: Mule Rider
Vice-President: Mason
@mason
Sorry to cause confusion. People throw around "flat tax" as a shorthand for the solution where you tax every dollar the same.
We have a progressive tax that at core is really just a set of stepped brackets. The tax within each bracket is flat.
So the proposal is a two-step progressive tax:
0% on the first $X earned
Y% on every dollar earned above $X
Our core tax system is just like this except with multiple increasing brackets.
So you can look at this as EITHER a simple progressive tax with one paying bracket, OR as a flat tax which only applies above a certain threshold. Your choice of language, but both are good descriptions.
I already find green monkey as someone I respect on here.
President: Green Monkey
Vice-President: Mule Rider??
Oh my god ... I ... need to go somewhere and think ...
Somewhere and "think"?
Or drink?
That's what I recommend. And what I'm going to do here very shortly.
So, executives using bailout ("rescue") funds to pay their inflated salaries and bonuses is fine. Executive salaries up to 400 times lowest wage is fine. But minimum wage should not increase to a living wage so these guys can go on getting more and more every year.
Personally, I'm radical enough to feel that there *should* be confiscatory taxes above the second million, but it ain't gonna happen. All they are talking about is increasing the top level (those who can easily afford it) 4%, to what it used to be, and trying to get the lowest batch to be able to afford food, housing, necessities, on their very small wages.
I think you should try to live for a month on minimum wage and then see how you feel.
Another topic. I hope Obama does not go to Georgia. More confirmation about plots to kill him:
"One of the most popular white supremacist Web sites got more than 2,000 new members the day after the election, compared with 91 new members on Election Day, according to an AP count."
http://my.earthlink.net/article/top?guid=20081114/491d05d0_3ca6_1552620081114128879007
Sick but altogether too likely. People busy buying assault guns like there's no tomorrow.
predn: predation
Savannah, GA. Any registered voter can vote in the runoff. Our lawyers did their stuff and we have 5 days of early voting starting Tuesday, November 18.
We have 25 volunteers out knocking on doors today. We have 400 volunteers working phones and databases. Labor has another 200 people canvassing. We stuck labels with early voting dates and times on 4,500 door hangers today. Collected $250 for GOTV from odd people who stopped by to hear Martin, Powell, and Barrow speak.
Martin and Powell are in town shaking hands at the Children's Book Festival, Democratic HQ, etc.
We're going to win this thing in a walk.
Old thread now. No one will ever read this. But came back and saw susan's comments and wanted to say:
1) Bailout or no bailout, and regardless of whose "fault" it is, does the senior management of a public company get a bonus in a year when the stock price goes from $70 to $2? No. A lot more to say on current probs with exec comp and risk/reward but this judgment stands.
2) Does the help desk guy who did an excellent job get at least a reduced bonus? Maybe. On the one hand, if any one gets a bonus, he does. On the other hand, when times are tough in the auto industry the guy on the line takes the hit as much as anyone.
3) Has compensation been skewed unreasonably to the top end? Yes. It doesn't have to be that skewed. It all worked fine when less skewed.
4) Is minimum wage ridiculously low? Yes. It's enough to live at home with parents but it's not a living adult wage.
5) Given the real current tax structure (and not the tax fantasy spun out toward the end of the thread) is it reasonable to return upper tax brackets to Reagan levels? Yes (as I said above). It's not just humane, it's decent economics. In spite of whining by WSJ, IBD, etc. But don't get me started.
6) Where I do agree with MR is that everyone should have a reasonable baseline standard of living. This would include 1) solid social infrastructure -- universal health care, a great education, social security, unemployment benefits, etc., 2) truly reasonable baseline (minimum) wages. Also, no point in taxing income that's below the baseline standard.
7) I didn't argue about what's a reasonable baseline. In contrast to MR I'd make it solidly middle class. Nose above the poverty line is not enough. Part of this is just plain fairness and humane-ness, but it's good economics too. We're a knowledge economy. You are handicapping the whole country as well as individuals if you don't include a home computer with internet access, for example, in your idea of a baseline living standard. Note that good social infrastructure (e.g., universal healthcare, hell, what about universal connectivity?) takes pressure off the baseline wage requirement and thus helps individuals and businesses alike.
8) "Confiscatory" sounds harsh. I like the idea of 1) a truly reasonable baseline, and 2) a very simple and equal tax that can't be gamed. I don't have the desire to make billions of dollars myself, but I also don't care if that's what others do as long as a decent baseline for everyone is the top priority. The one thing I would say, however: if the economy does well, we've all participated, and the baseline standard of living should rise.
End scene.
I volunteered for Jim Martin's campaign in the former Obama, now "Georgia for Change" office in Atlanta. They seemed pretty busy, organized, and motivated. No sign of slacking off. I called people and they all sounded enthusiastic about the run-off as well.
When y'all come to Georgia, are you just going to be in Atlanta or are you going to go to some other places? I recommend Athens, because that's where I live :)
"...absolutely zero ambiguity..."
existence = something
zero = nothing
therefore: zero does not exist.
therefore:"...absolute ambiguity..."
wv: reprosil. Reprosil, reprosil, let your hair down.
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^^ nice blog!! ^@^
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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
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