Today we continue our Road to 270 series with the Keystone State, Pennsylvania.
THE REPUBLICAN WHITE WHALE, Pennsylvania will give its 21 electoral votes to Barack Obama. Despite relentlessly wider public polling margins, Republicans argue that they are in a position to lose the state by 6 points, which is a 140% bigger margin than when John Kerry won the state in 2004. Even Michael Barone knows John McCain won't win the state, bitterly complaining that
The irony here is that voters motivated by anger at the decline in their wealth seem about to elect a president who has promised to embark on wealth-destroying policies.Oh, Waah! Sounds like an elitist bitterly complaining that the voters are too dumb to realize what's good for 'em, huh? Don't be a poopy-pants, Mike, the Obama ground operation is just a bunch of "thug" kids waving signs. I mean, you wrote it, it must be true.
Key Demographics
Note: Factors colored in red can generally be thought to help McCain. Factors in blue can generally be thought to help Obama. Factors in purple have ambiguous effects. Except where otherwise apparent, the numbers next to each variable represent the proportion out of each 100 residents in each state who fall into that category. Fundraising numbers reflect dollars raised in the 2008 campaign cycle per eligible voter in each state. Figures for seniors and youth voters are proportions of all residents aged 18+, rather than all residents of any age. The figure for education reflects the average number of years of completed schooling for all adults aged 25+. The figure for same-sex households reflects the number of same-sex partner households as a proportion of all households in the state. The liberal-conservative index is scaled from 0 (conservative) to 100 (liberal), based on a Likert score of voter self-identification in 2004 exit polls. The turnout rates reflect eligible voters only. Unemployment rates are current as of June 2008.
What McCain Has Going For Him
John McCain decided at the last minute to try and throw resources at the state in hopes they would see their internals move. Nate's point remains the right one: hope is not a strategy. In fairness to McCain, there really wasn't any other big state he could reasonably expect to obtain, so returning here was marginally less hopeless. Pennsylvania is not a very young state, and has more elderly voters than anywhere but Florida. McCain and Palin are visiting the state left and right in the closing days, but Obama isn't; which tells you all you need to know about how worried the Obama camp is. Obama even did a nostalgia trip to Iowa over a closing appearance in Pennsylvania.
What Obama Has Going For Him
Barack Obama enjoys a massive voter registration edge, where 52% of the state is now registered Democratic, more than Republicans and independents combined. Obama enjoys a massive organization edge, with an unprecedented operation up and running the state for months. It's a high Catholic voting state, and Joe Biden's selection as vice-president helps in the working-class Catholic demographic. Not many white evangelicals or Mormon voters hold down the Republican advantage. Obama and Biden have spent plenty of time in the state, and it's a done deal.
What To Watch For
While the presidential race will be over as soon as results start coming in, the House races in Pennsylvania will be huge to watch. We have heard the theory floated that McCain is spending time in PA to try and help the House races. There are two clear tossups for incumbents facing tough re-election fights -- Republican Phil English's seat in the northwest Erie district and Democrat Paul Kanjorski's seat in the northeastern Wilkes-Barre/Scranton region. Jack Murtha, who represents the most hilariously-shaped, gerrymandered district in America in southwest PA, is a Democratic institution who dodged ABSCAM troubles in the early 80s, only to talk about his "racist" voters who would vote for Obama a few weeks ago. Suddenly, Murtha is locked in a dogfight. Pennsylvania could actually lose more Democratic incumbent seats than it gains. Democrat Chris Carney is in a freshman defense up in PA-10 in the northeast corner. In 2010, there is talk of Chris Matthews running against Arlen Specter for a Pennsylvania Senate seat, but, as Brett noted yesterday, he'll have to get through Chuck Todd en route to the nomination.
142 comments
hello
If you are a fellow Dem, Liberal or Progressive you should read this. It is long but read, please.
Your first job is to vote for Obama and other Dems. The 2nd is to convince as many of your family, friends and acquaintances to vote. The 3rd is to volunteer so you can get as many strangers as possible to vote for them too. We have a historic opportunity and once in a generation opportunity to not only win control of government but to realign the country for another generation. Be smart; do not let this opportunity slip through our hands.
Folks remember that intelligence has a liberal bias :-) This is why Republicans hate the “intellectual elite”. We should demonstrate this intelligence. We are the party that is more tolerant and so we should also show this to the folks on the other side; Republicans and Conservatives. I often see a failure to demonstrate this on Liberal leaning blogs.
Do not be strident and hostile to the other side. Remember there are 50 states and the way the founding fathers established the Union… there are not enough of us Dems/Lib/Progressives to win the White House and most state wide offices. We need to convince some of the other side to vote for our side. We cannot do this by being strident and hostile.
When tempted follow these principles and you can exercise your revenge on those on the other side… Follow these steps and you may not be able to convert those on the other side but our revenge is that we will convert most of their kids. We can build a generational majority. Remember the GOP was the party of Lincoln, Dems had to move left of the GOP. If we are smart we can make the GOP move to the left of us before they get back into office.
1. As the intellectuals we need to make sure the new Dem Congress stays the hell away from controversial issues like Gun Control, Abortion, Prayer in Schools and so on… These are traps and are guaranteed to put us back in the wilderness.
2. If we are smart we will make only incremental changes. If we do this we can achieve our goals in due course. It is much harder to organize opposition to incremental changes.
3. We need to look at what the Republicans hate and generally support those issues and start the process to implement and or change those things of a structural nature.
a. Why do you think Repubs hate immigration? Hint…Hispanics are voting 2 to one for Dems. New immigrants generally vote Dem. Therefore we need to make incremental changes (not dramatic) to immigration policy. Why is the South East coast and the South-West realigning? We need to be smart and make incremental non-controversial changes over time to support friendly immigration policies. Utah will be never be Blue until the day enough immigrants and other ‘out of staters’ move into that State :-)
4. What do the most Liberal states in the Union have in common? And what do the most Liberal areas of these states have in common? Colleges and Universities. Why do you think the Gingrich Repubs wanted to abolish the Dept of Education? Universities produce more Liberals and Progressives. Therefore we need to enact policies to allow almost everyone the chance to attend college. We need to fund and or build more Universities in Red States. This will be our revenge. We will make most of the kids of Repubs and Conservatives into Dems.
Remember the base of the GOP is made up of very religious folks, small town and rural folks. If many of them had their way the country would be a theocracy. When you are tempted to be hostile to those on the other side, consider this…
If you lived at the time of the Renaissance … at the cross roads from the Dark ages to the Age of Enlightenment… from Religious suppression to the age of Science. Suppose you were running for political office… How would you get elected? Tell the superstitious folks how inferior they are?
Or would you leave them alone and not try to change them but solicit their support? When elected, start educating their kids. Which do you think would work? The kids will be voting for you for generations and you will have defeated the purveyors of hate and division… the leaders of the Holy Inquisition…the masters of darkness and torture.
Think about it and be smart. Spread the message. Let us not blow this historic opportunity.
Sean,
I like your confidence - go PA!!
First!!
fifth ?
CNN National Poll
Obama +7
Not sure of the percentages.
CNN National Poll
Obama: 53%
McCain: 46%
you gotta love how the networks pick and choose when to tout which polls. Now MSNBC is all over the Mason-Dixon polls that show Obama ahead by only 4 points in PA. And of course, the are sure to mention that it is within the margin of error and how that means it is a "virtual dead heat".
They also talk about how McCain wouldn't be in PA if he didn't think he could win it. UM HELLO, Earth to MSNBC.... John McCain has almost no chance of winning the WH if he doesn't win PA. THAT'S WHY HE'S THERE, period.
I think PA would be a done deal if the state had early voting. The other theory about why McCain is spending time there: no votes are yet secured. They are of course in places like Colorado, Virginia -- in fact, all of the other swing states. So if dirty tricks and racist campaigning were going to work anywhere, that would be here.
I don't Rendell will allow dirty tricks to go down. Just a hunch...
@bobby
agree absolutely, but ... have you encountered the Pete Kent sock puppet?
Obama's people even came to my house yesterday to make sure I sent out my absentee ballot. I did.
Damn, community organizing might be McCain's downfall after they laughed about it at the RNC.
Goooobama!
Reposted - because lost at the end of last posts -
I know some are getting a little nervous. So I put together the battleground states graphs from pollster all on one page for easy reading. I find it reassuring. Have I got the tiers right?
Battleground States
Obama's people even came to my house yesterday to make sure I sent out my absentee ballot. I did.
Damn, community organizing might be McCain's downfall after they laughed about it at the RNC.
Goooobama!
please watch this
i have confidence in rendell to get out the vote. but i wish this were an early voting state
does the cnn poll show any change?
It looks like Joe Biden's last appearance will be in South Philadelphia. You can piece together his November 3 schedule from the campaign web site:
Lee's Summit, Missouri: doors open 7:30 am, program begins 9:30 am
Zanesville, Ohio: doors open 1:45 pm
Copley, Ohio: doors open 5:30 pm, program begins 7:30 pm
Philadelphia: doors open 8:30 pm
This isn't particularly surprising: I figure Biden is heading back to Delaware for Election Day, and the campaign's probably trying to get on the eleven o'clock news.
Oops! I didn't mean to post that twice.
Fox News had Rick Davis and David Ploufe on this morning. It's no shocker why Obama is running the better campaign. Ploufe has done a much better job, even Britt Hume admitted this point.
These Mason Dixon polls are great news...for Barack Obama. We need an illusion of tightening, even if there is absence of it. This will keep the effort in high gear.
I'm giving McCain +2 national bounce for his SNL apearance.
It's official. Nate has made geeky stardom. There is a post on my knitting board in the Obama forum with a picture of the back of Nate's head at an Obama rally and someone sqeeeing that she saw him. I hope that doesn't balloon your head too much, but you have made geek numbers cool.
(Sorry, I know it's a Sean post, but I figured you guys could tell him.)
a.h. we expect nothing but repeats from an Obamabot. Post it again!
If people vote for a candidate due to appearances on SNL, then that would be sad indeed.
Bobby,
What if you don't chose to be a conservative, you're born a conservative?
I'm giving McCain +10 national bounce for his SNL apearance. He's still lose in a landslide though, so never mind.
Sean - Didn't you get the memo? Pennsylvania is "in play" according to Nate the Silver.
(Wink, wink.)
[lonotene - what John McCain rubs on his face every morning.]
Nice display, Matt! I enjoyed how you have it laid out, very interesting.
Why would SNL give anyone a two point bounce at this point? Isn't it a bit late for "touchy feely" bounce not based on events?
Obamabot? Nope. I'm just a girl in Florida who voted for Obama. There is no need for snobbery.
"...52% of the state is now registered Democratic, more than Republicans and independents combined."
It would be a neat trick if the combined Republicans and Independent registrations exceeded 52%. :)
I, too, wish PA had early voting. I like our chances, but I'll be biting my nails until PA is called on Tuesday night.
Bobby, nice post.
Here in the Secular UK we have prayer in school and compulsory Religious Education (though what religion depends on the school). We also have an Established Church (in England anyway). I can recall how boring it was to be schooled in scripture by teachers who would rather be doing something else. It doesn't work. It works even less now there are so many other religions around and Christianity is split into 57 mutually contradictory varieties.
Yes, all the young folks watching SNL decided that they want the old man as a president...Haha.
@Mrs B
I have seen Pete Kent and I know some of these guys... On blogs you have to ignore the trolls. Feeding them fattens them and they keep coming back to the trough. All more people in OK or wherever he is to go to college and his kids would be in a college town voting for Obama. Ignore those that extreme and get your revenge by educating their kids in college :-).
don't seem to have heard anything about CO recently? Any news?
Well the Daily trackers haven't moved at all which is just the death knell for McCain. He'd have to be SURGING in the national polls to have a chance in PA, and he's stuck at 46% less than 48 hours before election day, while Obama is at 51% in the Rasmussen poll.
Worse, it hasn't changed since yesterday. Flat NO movement at all. No surge, no closing spurt, nothing. McCain's flatlined and Obama's over 50%.
Well, McCain IS going to lose PA by less than 6%, I'm betting it's around 3% before all is said and done, but it's a done deal.
And by putting all him marbles in PA, McCain has left Florida, North Carolina, Missouri and Indiana wide open. Expect Obama to win at least 1 of these states.
It's going to be an early night for McCain. He can concede by 11:00 PM Eastern time, make a brief appearance and get a nice long nap in.
He's already planning to skip his "victory party" which gives you a realistic view as to what he thinks his chances, although Palin seems to be genuinely delusional (from the fake Sarkosy interview).
CNN is actually
M43
O51
with third party candidates.
justsomeguy said...
Why would SNL give anyone a two point bounce at this point? Isn't it a bit late for "touchy feely" bounce not based on events?
Yes I too am confused as to why he would get a bounce out of helping make fun of his running mate.
John McCain was on SNL last night?---well that changes everything.
I had no idea of the registration percentages for PA. That makes me feel quite a bit better about it. I believe Obama is makeing the right decision focusing on other states.
cugel said...
Well, McCain IS going to lose PA by less than 6%, I'm betting it's around 3% before all is said and done, but it's a done deal.
Do you have any data to support this?
@bobby
sorry I wasn't clear. I agree with your long term strategy, but in the short term it is VERY hard to be respectful to the sock puppets!
@justsomeguy
Why would SNL give anyone a two point bounce at this point? Isn't it a bit late for "touchy feely" bounce not based on events?
It's hard to tell when people are kidding, isn't it?
"CNN National Poll
Obama: 53%
McCain: 46%"
What's that - up 2 from last time? Kicks out the Fox poll (3%) in the RCP average and lifts up Obama above 7.0 as soon as it's posted.
Dr. Funk:
Thanks for the Link. That was an inspirational reading. It makes me feel all the more that I am swept up in a part of history.
Is the Palin prank call making it into people's consciousness out there in the non-internet world? I haven't been watching any TV lately so I'm not sure.
ABC's Jake Tapper managed to get Senator Barack Obama's attention on the tarmac in Springfield, Missouri this morning.
"What would you tell your Treasury Secretary to do differently with the $700 billion?" he asked, according to the pool report.
"We're on a tarmac," Obama replied.
"Why don't you have a press conference," Tapper asked.
"I will," Obama responded. "On Wednesday."
Somebody sounds awfully confident.
@jonathan
"What if you don't chose to be a conservative, you're born a conservative?"
What we know is higher education makes most folks more Liberal, not all. We don't need all to win, we just need most :-)
I don't buy the whole 'tightening polls is good news' meme. At best its a wash, as it may also increase McCain voter enthusiasm
At this point, Obama's ground game and GOTV effort already is what its going to be, and the likelihood of his voters who haven't voted yet showing up to the polls already is what its going to be. A movement in the PA polls is probably not going to change that.
yep, i guess it was educmacashun for me too - the undergrad and the MBA (just like Bush!).
that's and travelling the world living in countries sush as the UK and Sweden...
@ dfs
Tightening polls are good news!!!! For network ratings!!!!!!!!!!!
Is there a link somewhere to see the "hilariously-shaped" district that Murtha represents (for now)? Thank you.
Rick Davis was on every morning show lying thru his teeth. I love the part where he claims that the Co,NV,NM are tied. Even better when he said that early voting has't fundamentally changed. Really I guess 75% of people voted early in NC in 2004 and 26% were AA and over 50% were Dems...absolute pure lies and distortions by Davis.
dr funkenstein-
thanks for the poem it was great.
after watching palin make a mockery of language it was a relief to see that some people still know that words can inspire rather than demean
Early voting update:
NC
-2,661,110 voted which is 75% of the toal voted in 2004..AMAZING!!
-AA turnout is 26% of early vote(models have AA at 19-20% of electorate)
In fairness to McCain, the electoral math dictated that he pin all his hopes on PA.
Obama easily locked up IA + NM + all the Kerry states, including MI where McCain had hoped to compete.
That gave Obama 264 EV needing only 1 more state to win.
Then Obama surged ahead in Colorado, Virginia and Nevada. McCain gave up in CO and NV where Palin has not been a help, rather the reverse, and he is trailing badly in VA.
His only hope is to flip PA. Without that even winning FL + OH + PA + IN + NC + MO does him no good (with NV, Obama hits 270 even without PA).
So, his "strategy" is down to: try to flip PA, hope for the best in the rest of the red states and try to limit his loses to CO and NV -- and hope that somehow VA falls into line.
VW: "mirea" as in "mirea-ge" -- the shimmering vision McCain sees of himself in the White House.
Albuquerque Journal poll - NM...
O: 51
M: 43
New Mexico
NC 18-29 early voters are up to 15%! http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
OTF said...
Rick Davis was on every morning show lying thru his teeth. I love the part where he claims that the Co,NV,NM are tied.
You know it's dishonest and designed to keep expectations high when the best he can say is that it is a tie.
seriously, why do you expect a losing side to tell the truth? It wouldn't matter which side was losing, they will keep saying they are in with a chance until the polls close, just to try and get their voters out.
wv gesse - what Sarah Palin does when she's asked a question
@Mrs B said...
"sorry I wasn't clear. I agree with your long term strategy, but in the short term it is VERY hard to be respectful to the sock puppets!
You were clear. You just have to be strong and ignore them :-). Some people just feed off of attention, good or bad. When they cannot get good they seek out bad. Their lives are vindicated when you pay attention to them.
"What McCain Has Going For Him"
This section should have mentioned an AA electorate that - according to the latest Rasmussen and SurveyUSA polls - is siding with McCain well above the national average.
Does anyone take this seriously? Could there be a plausibe explanation for these figures?
Was calling folks in PA yesterday from up here in NYC, seems pretty well sorted at this point, one 62 year old lady from Wilkes Barre said she's voting Obama, everyone she knows is too, they know where their polling place is, will we please stop harassing them! All will be fine in PA. McCain's decision to go there is not threatening it was unfortunately his last best option on the table. This is a competition, you'd expect each side to go to the mat for it, nothing to worry about really. "It's all in the game" - Omar
WV: Inglind. Palin's pronunciation of Great Britain
PA district maps
http://www.dgs.state.pa.us/dgs/lib/dgs/pa_manual/section8/pennsylvania_congressional_district_maps.pdf
Gallup on MSNBC, BHO loses 2 pints on Galup in traditional likely voter model.
Newport says it is near impossible for McCain to win.
No indication of youth vote turnout.
Josh said...
Is the Palin prank call making it into people's consciousness out there in the non-internet world? I haven't been watching any TV lately so I'm not sure.
=+=================
Watching MSNBC and CNN palin prank call is getting more play than Obamas aunt story....foxnews mentions it but not to much....From what I have seen anyways...
"Barack Obama enjoys a massive voter registration edge, where 52% of the state is now registered Democratic, more than Republicans and independents combined."
I'd just like to point out how obvious this statement is. If there are only three choices, and one of them is over 50%, then the other two combined won't be as much! Hooray for math!
SHERWICK said...
NC 18-29 early voters are up to 15%! http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
That's absolutely huge. It was 14% in 2004
Pennsylvania's 12th congressional district.
It's like an upraised hand giving the finger to the rest of Pennsylvania.
I am a dem committeeman in SE Pa. I had a chat with Rendell yesterday afternoon, he is playing close to the vest but thinks Obamas numbers here are a bit soft(in Pa), but not soft enough to really worry. It is hard to sort out his desire to maintain motivation from plain talk, but I see nothing in the five county metro-Philly area to give McCain reason to be happy.
NBC final map.
BO 286, JM 157, Tossup 95
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/02/1626684.aspx
thanks cloudy for palin fake sakozy info. i was hoping that story wouldnt just die away. even though i think obama will win i still want to get every vote out there. i remember 2000 and 2004 all to well
Sean, man, this is the most opininated 'road to 270' I've read, less an analysis and more a rant against McCain.
I want Obama to win as much as you do but this post detracts from the quality of the blog.
Just saw the SNL skit. Maybe if he had done it earlier it *would* help because it shows he IS "one of the guys" instead of "Grumpy old man 24/7". Honestly, it wouldn't have hurt him to show his better side, but somehow his team seemed to think that was a detriment somehow. I have to say SNL never had it so good as this year. If they could only keep that level 70% of the time.
wv: emendin What Palin would do if she got into office. She'd be emendin the constitution for all she's worth.
NBC's analysis of their "final electoral map":
"With two days before Election Day, the final NBC News map shows Obama remaining above the 270 electoral-vote mark, with a 286-157 lead over McCain. Last week, Obama held a 286-163 advantage. Our changes: We moved Montana and North Dakota (which has same-day voter registration) from Lean McCain to Toss-up. In addition, we moved Michigan, Minnesota, Wisconsin, and New Jersey (the latter of which we should have moved a couple of weeks ago) from Lean Obama to Likely Obama. So here’s where we stand:
Likely Obama: CA, CT, DE, DC, HI, IL, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NJ, NY, OR, RI, VT, WA, WI (227 electoral votes)
Lean Obama: CO, IA, NH, NM, PA, VA (59 votes)
Toss-up: FL, IN, MO, MT, NV, NC, ND, OH (95 votes)
Lean McCain: AZ, GA, NE 02, SD, WV (34 votes)
Likely McCain: AL, AK, AR, ID, KS, KY, LA, MS, NE (the rest of the state), OK, SC, TN, TX, UT, WY (123 votes)
http://firstread.msnbc.msn.com/archive/2008/11/02/1626684.aspx
This site is my life, I am completely obsessed ... but I have actively restrained myself from posting for fear it will only feed the 'refresh' addiction. But this morning I woke up to all that light, light blue on the electoral-vote.com website and got depressed and scared. Plus I was out canvassing for Obama in Tampa again yesterday afternoon, and all the pro-Obama houses I hit had already voted, which makes me worry about who exactly is showing up at the polls on November 4 and what that will do to Florida's apparent early Obama lead.
Now that all that angst is out on the table, doesn't it seem commonsensical that people who are 'undecided' (euphamism for brain dead) this late in the game will be especially unlikely to vote in states where there will be long lines and chaos on the 4th - that is, crucial big swing states like FL and OH? In the last thread some people pointed out that undecideds who clearly aren't very invested in a particular outcome may just not show up, but I haven't seen anyone make what seems to me to be the obvious point that they are least likely to stick it out and vote in just those places where they could do the most damage.
Which side of me is rational, pessimism-girl from paragraph 1 or optimism-girl from paragraph 2?
wv=gationdi - an intestinal disorder caused by pre-election stress, now reaching unprecedented, pandemic-level heights...
"most hilariously-shaped, gerrymandered district in America"? I think not. Check out IL-17 for the most absurd district:
http://www.geocities.com/dupagecountyliberal/pictures/10_14_2004/Il17_108.gif
Phil
OMG! Is it really allowed to have Cong districts as crazy shaped as that? That has to be gerrymandering. Here in UK we get some odd-shaped constituencies to equalise electorates but nothing like that.
The only thing I've seen like that is the borders of Uzbekistan/Tajikstan/Kirghizia - but those are racial boundaries
rebecca-
relax, take a xanax. Obama has many routes to win, f you flip FL it is near impossible for McCain, een if McCain gets FL it is near impossible for McCain.
Relax, don't tune in on election night until midnight, and enjoy the day.
anybody looked at RCP lately? They have FL and OH as tossups, but O at +4.2 in both. If that's right, Obama is more likely to win both of them than McCain is to win his home state (AZ Mc +3.5).
"SHERWICK said...
NC 18-29 early voters are up to 15%! http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Seretse said...
That's absolutely huge. It was 14% in 2004"
You laugh at that, but technically, that is a 7% increase.
And don't forget either, that most pollsters aren't counting on a large increase of young voters, yet Obama is still winning.
"anybody looked at RCP lately? They have FL and OH as tossups, but O at +4.2 in both."
Yes, but it was Ohio "leaning Obama" until this morning when they posted the latest Mason-Dixon poll.
My personal on young voting is that most of them are waiting until Tuesday to cast their votes. It's an event, a historic moment in their lives and probably in the history of the country. They don't want to "waste" the opportunity by voting days or weeks before the big day.
Mike said...
"SHERWICK said...
NC 18-29 early voters are up to 15%! http://elections.gmu.edu/early_vote_2008.html
Seretse said...
That's absolutely huge. It was 14% in 2004"
You laugh at that, but technically, that is a 7% increase.
There was no sarcasm there at all. I meant that genuinely. Just last week it appeared as though the youth vote would be junder 12%. This is great news that we're outpacing 2004 totals in early voting which is traditionally a time when older folks vote.
I hope someone is doing something big in PA in the next couple of days.
According to Pollster.com today, PA has narrowed-significantly:
"The one place where polls show unambiguous evidence of narrowing margin is Pennsylvania, where the McCain campaign has placed great emphasis (both in candidate visits and television advertising) over the last week...the margin has narrowed nearly 5 points in the last week"
Five points in a week-not a pretty number. At this rate McCain will pull into MOE territory by Tuesday.
I think its time for a major push on the Obama side in PA.
I have hope that it will be the "cool" thing to do to go vote for Obama Tues. In fact I think it will happen. That said, I sure hope it does.
That IL gerrymandered district is shaped like Bugs Bunny doing that arms-folded Russian Cossack dance in a half-squat, whatever it's called.
By my count, we still have Ohio, Colorado, Virginia, and DC to go before the Road to 270 is complete. Good work guys! We're almost there!
How does a dumfug like Barone get to write for The Economist? Oh, wait...
[uncesi - the opposite of cesi]
What I have heard from young and blacks is that they want to wait until Tuesday, because it will be the historical day and they want to savor that moment and also many of them do not trust early voting and feel its a plot to steal their vote. Even as I tried to explain it isn't that is just to new to them (most never heard of early voting) and they rather go the traditional route, lines be damned!!!!!
Mike said...
My personal on young voting is that most of them are waiting until Tuesday to cast their votes. It's an event, a historic moment in their lives and probably in the history of the country. They don't want to "waste" the opportunity by voting days or weeks before the big day.
I don't think they're savouring the date so much as early voting lines have been discouraging. It should be less so on election day.
The real number to take note of for NC is this: the number of people who have already voted this election equals 75% of the total number of folks who voted in the 2004 election. 70% of the 2008 early voters are Democrats or non-affiliated.
AND it's supposed to rain in NC on Tuesday. Bad weather for the Republicans, indeed.
WV: diatt. After the election, I will have to go on a strict diatt of no polls. I'm gonna starve.
Obama's cam paign has said they expected narrowing in PA as it is really the only state McCain is competing in. Very negative ads from 427's, and lots of McCain positive ads. McCain is on TV here more than Obama and this is likely the only place in the country that is true.
PA will narrow, BHO will still win as almost every poll still has him over 50%
Quick note about the youth vote: I think people need to remember that even if there isn't an "explosion" in turnout, in 2004 the youth vote was basically split evenly between Bush and Kerry and this time around the youth vote is going to Obama heavily. So even without a big increase in turnout, Obama will still get a big bounce because of the lopsided margin he is getting.
Nothing, RCP moved Ohio based on a poll from the most right leaning polllster going - Mason/Dixon.
Tha Mason/Dixon poll actually shows movement TO Obama from their last pol of the state.
Hey Barone,
Your party is gone to get an ass whopping that comes from the hands of American voters.
We are not a thugs. I have a B.S. and a Ph.D. and I have made thousands of phone calls in the Bush Red States.
We all love America. That is why we need to clean out all the Republicans, who screwed up the place.
Someone may have already asked this so i'm sorry if I am beating a dead horse.
Why are the MD polls released today all for polling that ended on 10/30--Thursday? Why the 3 day wait this close to the election?
For the love of Shiva! If the Dem ticket needed more resources in PA, then the Holy Trinity of Obama/Axelrod/Plouffe would have dispensed those resources.
It's one thing to worry. It's another thing ENTIRELY to honestly think you see something from your armchair that O/A/P can't see with a microscope.
Oh-and I looked at the RCP Ohio stunt Ignore it. They included a Rasmussen poll dating back to 10/26 but eliminated other polls with the SAME date-many of which give Obama a bigger lead.
If you run their numbers consistently by including all polls back to 10/26 date where they kept Rasmussen, you get Obama by 5.2-which would be "leans Obama". RCP is pulling a Zogby here. The only way they show tightening in OH is to use inconsistent methodology.
Look at PA and VA-they did the same thing in PA. Basically, they dump more favorable polls (often with lower MOE's), but will keep older, less favorable polls with bigger MOE's in the average IF that favors McCain. The cherry-picking is totally obvious.
RCP is no longer credible. Go with Pollster.com. They do a better job. Or, for a more conservative (but honest) site, use Election Projection.
Will the Obama vote show up?
Just one little tidbit: In North Carolina blacks make up 21% of the population. In 2004 blacks cast only 19% of the votes, 2% LESS than their population percentage.
They have been 26.1% of early voters in 2008. They are turning out in GREATER numbers than whites (as a percentage of population). Obama's candidacy has revolutionized voting in America.
It's the same in every state where there's a significant AA population:
In Florida, Democratic early voting is up 5% over 2004.
In 2004 Florida Republicans led 43.5% - 40.7% (R + 2.8%)
In 2008 Democrats lead 45.6% to 37.8% (D + 7.8%).
Now, some Florida Democrats are "Reagan Democrats" who will vote for McCain, but still 3/4 of them will vote for Obama.
That's a sizeable lead for Obama before election day. 46.9% of the 2004 totals have already voted in 2008.
subterranean said...
For the love of Shiva! If the Dem ticket needed more resources in PA, then the Holy Trinity of Obama/Axelrod/Plouffe would have dispensed those resources.
It's one thing to worry. It's another thing ENTIRELY to honestly think you see something from your armchair that O/A/P can't see with a microscope.
AMEN!
If there was something to worry about, they'd be on it. They have the info and the money to deal with whatever comes up.
new thread
Assmole the Brave said...
I'm giving McCain +2 national bounce for his SNL apearance.
That's why Lorne Michaels is a twat.
I'll tell, that "librul media" are doing their best to resurrect McCain before Tuesday, what with cherry picking Republican polls and giving McCain hours of free airtime. Two guest appearances on SNL in the last month, Larry King interviewing McCain last Wedneday, Cindy Tomorrow. I knew they were his base, but for fuck's sake.
RCP typically slow to include NBC/WSJ & CNN national polls. Frank Newport hinted that Gallup is stable. I seriously doubt that. His hints last week weren't reflected in Sunday's poll, and I'm sure McCain will claw back a few points today.
Sean, I agree with you. I have been reading USN&R for years and I can't stand Michael Barone - what a GOP schill. As an Italian-American I have to say that Michael Barone, along with Neil Cavuto, Alphonse D'Amato and Rudy Giuliani, are big embarrassments to Italian heritage.
Well you are wrong Sean.
TPM says the new SUSA shows an Obama lead of 7 down from 12. And the Obama team is sending in Joe Biden. the only Kerry state where either of them will put in an appearance. Sounds like PA is in trouble.
They haven't added CNN national polls in a couple of weeks over at RCP. I had asked why they were excluding CNN national polls but still including Fox.
@ Rebecca
> doesn't it seem commonsensical that people who are 'undecided' (euphamism for brain dead) this late in the game will be especially unlikely to vote in states where there will be long lines and chaos on the 4th - that is, crucial big swing states like FL and OH? In the last thread some people pointed out that undecideds who clearly aren't very invested in a particular outcome may just not show up, but I haven't seen anyone make what seems to me to be the obvious point that they are least likely to stick it out and vote in just those places where they could do the most damage.
My personal opinion is that undecideds will break for Obama at least somewhat, as Republicans look at the poll numbers, consider the long lines at voting booths, and say screw it.
TPM says the new SUSA shows an Obama lead of 7 down from 12. And the Obama team is sending in Joe Biden. the only Kerry state where either of them will put in an appearance. Sounds like PA is in trouble.
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unbelievable......... in normal election years 40 hours away a 7 point lead would mean jump for joy. Now the opponent is in trouble. Let me say I think McCain's 4 point ead in Georgia is in more jeopardy than Obama's 7 point lead in PA.
Obama's surrogates are some of the worst I've ever seen. They let the scum get away with lying their ass off far to often for my liking. That's one thing Hillary definately had over Obama during the primaries. Sometimes a bunch of screeching harpies, blowhard governors and former aides really does the trick.
It also doesn't help when you have a dickhead like Wolf Blitzer giving them the last word every time.
Just got off the phone with my 92-year-old grandma who lives in FL. She is a lifelong registered Republican who voted for Barack Obama. The GOP called her and asked if she was voting for McCain for President. She asked if McCain was running for the Presidency of Iraq since that was all she heard McCain talk about in the news. The GOP canvasser thought she was kidding. My strong-willed 92-year-old grandma assured the caller she was not kidding.
She doesn't get GOP calls anymore :)
Mrs. B
Denver Post has a new Mason Dixon poll from Tues & Weds with Obama leading by 5 points.
Also showed a lower percentage of undecideds than nationally or other states.
http://www.denverpost.com/nationalpolitics/ci_10875870
The Obama campaign here is running hard. The appearances of Barack, Michelle and Joe have been really good. And that poll was mostly before the infomercial.
Chris,
Gerrymandering, almost by definition here, creates some really ridiculous districts. Tom Delay and the Texas legislature pulled off some unbelievable ones after the 2000 census. Alaska has some for the state legislature (only one Congressman), Bachman in MN has one and in Colorado there are several. The Dems did their share of this at one time. The GOP, as with everything, has taken it to a whole new level.
Bobby, the nice thing about majorities in Congress and regaining the WH is that no one is likely to bring up the prayer in school, etc issues. If they do it won't go anywhere, it will just be their talking point for the next election. 'I submitted a bill for... and the Democratic leadership blocked it.'
I think the incremental approach will be necessary in getting to single payor health insurance, which I like to frame as a 'voucher' system. Not to mention that Barack has not endorsed that system and hopefully won't need his toes toasted to get there.
MN -- so, the spin is, Obama leads the state by slightly more than 3 times what Kerry won it by. Therefore, he will lose it?
Good luck with that.
In a conversation about gerrymandered districts, you have to mention NC-12:
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/9/95/NC12_109.gif
http://www.electoral-vote.com/
Nov. 02
Obama 364 McCain 171
Nov. 02 2004
Kerry 262 Bush 261
John Fund from WSJ argues on CNN that Obama will lose the undecided voters because they always break against the incumbent, and Obama is, I quote, the "quasi-incumbent," because he's been ahead in the polls.
Fortunately he was quickly ridiculed.
Don't forget that McCain *NEVER* held a lead in PA this year in a poll done by a reputable pollster. Not once. Even at the height of his convention bounce.
Pennsylvania is a Republican white whale.
Again, anyone who wants to make comparisons y date to 2004 - the equivalent date is October 31, which was a Sunday.
Dates and the days of the week change year by year in case you didn't notice.
As the national polls will tell you, this is a last minute trend to Obama, not McCain.
Sadly, we probably won't be getting any state polls to back that up.
It cracks me up to no end to read these breathless accounts by Obama supporters who are panicking over Pennsylvania. It's like no amount of quantitative explanation and assurance ever seems to work - unless Obama is up by double digits, there's always something to panic about.
Oh well, only one more day after today to have to read this worry-wart bilge.
PA GOP hits Obama on Wright
Wright is so old news. Thanks Hillary.
Nice to hear RCP finally calling the election for Obama. That's what I wanted to hear.
53 hours, 15 minutes until first polls close.
58 hours until winner declared (estimate).
SUSA has O +7 today in PA.
MD isn't the only poll out there. And remember: Kerry won PA by +2, despite a huge push, and his wife being part of the Heinz family. PA is never a done deal, and if there were any real tightening, you can bet Obama would be back in there, esp. since he's going to be in VA on Monday, anyway.
I'm pretty sure that IF Obama's internals showed PA being vulnerable in combo with any other state internals that would cost him the election, he'd be in PA and not Ohio.
Mason/Dixon is sort of right leaning in its polling.
It's the ONLY poll showing a statistical "dead heat."
They want to make news by turning this into a poll that will propel people to believe it will be extremely extremely tight.
I don't buy it.
Kerry was not an enthusiastic candidate and somehow STILL won the state by 2 or 3 points.
If Barack picks up VA and/or CO, then PA will be the site of the Battle of Obamageddon.
SNL was hilarious last night with Ben Affleck doing a great impersonation of the unhinged Keith Olbermann.
Gallup Daily: Obama Continues to Outpace McCain
Registered Voters
-----------------
Obama - 52
McCain - 41
Traditional LV's
-----------------
Obama - 51
McCain - 43
Expanded LV's
-----------------
Obama - 52
McCain - 43
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111664/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Continues-Outpace-McCain.aspx
It cracks me up to no end to read these breathless accounts by Obama supporters who are panicking over Pennsylvania. It's like no amount of quantitative explanation and assurance ever seems to work - unless Obama is up by double digits, there's always something to panic about.
-----------------------
the ones doing the most hand ringing will be the ones after the election saying they always knew Obama would win PA.
The ones doing the most hand ringing will be the ones after the election saying they always knew McCain would win Montana, North Dakota and Georgia :)
Buckeye -
There is always reason to panic in Pennsylvania. Luckily, with a Democratic Governor (who, by the way, has done as little as possible to actively support an Obama presidency), shenanigans will not be as prevalent as OH 4 years ago. Nonetheless, this is a state of a large number of older voters, a large number of Hillary supporters who are still bitter, and a large number of racist voters.
Given those three things, there is cause for concern.
Moreover, whenever your margin of victory depends on college age students, voters that traditionally poll well but don't show up, well, you can understand why people are nervous.
Statistically, however, things look good - while there is tightening, there is no national trend that appears to drive the race closer.
First, Rendell has gone one a week and a half long road trip all around PA on behalf of Obama starting a week ago Friday (50 or so stops). He has actually done quite a bit.
Now I agree we should not consider PA in the bag. Most connected Dems in PA do not consider PA a lock for Obama.
McCain has been closing fast in PA. Even if Obama wins the election, loosing PA would be a huge hit to the Democratic party. Eitherway, loosing PA will greatly reduce Obama's chances of winning the election.
McCain has been focusing on PA much more than Obama in the last two weeks. Recently the Obama campaign has announced that they will be spending time and money in several new states that have always gone Republican, including Arizona. I think this is a mistake. It spreads the campaign too thin, takes the focus from the important states like PA, and we have zero chance of winning these states.
We can not loose PA just because we want to show off by campaigning in Arizona.
Let's get serious and leave Arizona alone!!!!
Please come back to PA!!!!
The MSNBC Mason-Dixon poll from today shows exactly the same numbers and same spread from the last Mason-Dixon. MD has been kinder to McCain all along, but that doesn't make the numbers holy.
Barack will be in South Philly tomorrow morning. Whether this is concern about the state or support for the base, there it is. He will also be in Virginia tomorrow too.
So that means, if you live in this state, get out and vote early on election day.
----
It cracks me up to no end to read these breathless accounts by Obama supporters who are panicking over Pennsylvania.
----
It is simple to see why. After all last two elections were very close and it can be fairly argued that the elections were stolen. Bush seemed to outperform his OH exit poll numbers ... so why can't that happen in PA ?
In anycase as so many have said so many times, this election is difficult to predict because of so many reasons which make this election historical in so many ways
- President's approval ratings are at a historical low
- We have had an unprecidented financial meltdown and partial nationalisation of the biggest banks
- First AA candidate
- First woman for VP on the R side (who is actually popular with the creationist base)
and many more that can be added.
Almost live from Cheltenham, PA, in Montgomery County along the Philadelphia border.
Picked up my Democratic poll watching credentials yesterday, just got back from placing door hangers in my precinct today.
If you are an Obama supporter in PA who is worried, get yourself out to the nearest Obama GOTV staging location, and get a walk list or phone list.
For those still worried about PA, the Republicans would have to suppress turnout in the Philadelphia area to have a realistic chance to win the state. The Philadelphia area Democratic voter protection operation is prepared.
wv: systroo. You must believe me, what I said above, systroo.
"Jack Murtha, who represents the most hilariously-shaped, gerrymandered district in America in southwest PA"
I haven't read through all 190+ to see if anyone else has made this point, but IL 4 begs to differ.
http://www.govtrack.us/congress/findyourreps.xpd?state=IL&district=4
I live in south central PA (Harrisburg/Carlisle/Gettysburg area) solid rethugs. As a Dem I have never ever got a call from the rethugs because they know they never ever need a Dem vote- they outnumber us 2 to 1. Guess what happened today? I got 2 robocalls from the McSame campaign-they are down and soon to be OUT in PA. Last minute fearmongering robocalls will not turn the tide. Obama Biden will win PA!
I am a Marylander who volunteered in PA's 7th district yesterday. They had at least seven official offices set up, with several satellite offices targeting important turfs. They were splitting volunteers by which state they had come from (PA, NY, MD, DE, or other) and sending them to whichever satellite office needed them the most... they were easily hitting their third-tier turf lists yesterday: having already knocked or done lit drops at every registered Democrat in the turf, they were targeting likely Republican voters. While I was out knocking on doors, I had my turf to myself, but on the drive back to where I was staying, I saw three pairs of Obama volunteers out and about.
I didn't see a single McCain office or volunteer. If his campaign thinks a TV ad is going to be able to counter this surge of enthusiasm, he's crazy.
Mason-Dixon is basically the bizarro Quinnipiac. They both seem to be competent and don't have wild variance but one leans heavily Obama and one leans heavily McCain.
From a fellow Obama-ite on the ground in Scranton. I might repost closer to the top tomorrow so you can see it. Its tense in PA folks!
-------------------------------------
Situation here is incredibly intense, with PA Senator Casey addressing a crowd on one side of town and McCain himself on the other.
I believe Murtha
It's 8 PM on November 3, 2008. I just finished making phone calls to PA. I found lots of support for BO, lots of terse "won't answers" that are probably McCain supporters, and a few friendly "won't answers," that are probably Obama supporters who value their privacy.
Somewhere in the middle of over 100 phone calls, I got that one disturbing, angry "We don't vote for n------s" followed by the phone being slammed down.
You know it's out there, but it's a shock to actually hear it. Canvassing for Kerry in NH, I met with some in-person anger that was hard to understand, but easier to shake off. The racist anger continues to make me shiver.
I know that when I was a kid, about 35-40 years ago, my neighbors probably would have said the same kind of thing. My home town is now much more diverse, and I don't think I'd ever hear anything like this now. Has my state and home town grown up since then? Have we become a better world? Can I take comfort in the shock by concluding that this attitude's ability to disturb me means it is also uncommon?
I hope so.
Time to spread the love, people. Time to be the nation we can be.
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水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債、缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^
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