Right now, Barack Obama has 63.7 million popular votes to John McCain's 56.3 million, whereas third party candidates have roughly a collective 1.6 million. That works out to 52.4 percent of the vote for Obama and 46.3 percent for McCain ... conspicuously close to our pre-election estimates of 52.3 percent for Obama and 46.2 percent for McCain.
I went through and tried to estimate where the outstanding votes are, by simply extrapolating outward from the current results in each state that has missing precincts. This is fairly crude, obviously ... in Oregon, for instance, a disproportionate amount of the uncounted vote is in Portland, so Obama will probably perform better than these numbers. Nevertheless, here are the numbers of votes I estimate to be outstanding in each state:State Obama McCainSo, roughly another 1.8 million votes for Obama and 1.3 million for McCain ... most of the "missing" votes are in strong Obama states. That should get Obama's margin in the popular vote up to about 6.3 points, or a net of around 7.85 million votes.
Washington 695,268 499,804
Oregon 310,503 238,511
California 191,120 115,622
Colorado 96,463 84,083
Ohio 54,438 50,229
New York 44,014 25,994
Florida 41,451 39,482
Maine 33,925 23,641
Illinois 33,253 19,938
Pennsylvania 32,170 26,102
New Hampshire 30,948 25,299
New Jersey 20,949 15,565
Connecticut 19,262 12,373
Massachusetts 19,093 11,152
Georgia 18,295 20,428
Virginia 18,106 16,539
Maryland 14,234 8,821
Indiana 13,811 13,546
Arizona 8,602 10,231
Arkansas 8,516 12,894
South Carolina 8,510 10,189
Alabama 8,197 12,765
Vermont 6,247 2,951
Mississippi 5,231 6,914
Nebraska 3,191 4,439
Alaska 812 1,377
TOTAL 1,772,938 1,342,580
There are also provisional and absentee ballots to be counted in many states ... the former will tend to favor Obama, the latter McCain. Total turnout should be somewhere in the 125-130 million range, actually not that much higher than 122 million that turned out in 2004, but still very impressive by modern standards.
11.05.2008
The Popular Vote
@ 5:06 PM
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On that NTY map that GreatinOh provided a link to...does anyone know if the area that voted more Republican corresponds to what is known as the Bible belt?
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html
The image links break sometimes, but always come back with a refresh.
@"are all the image links broken for anyone else?"
I had that problem in Internet Explorer 8 beta 2 earlier in the day and switched over to Firefox.
Note: It still exists in IE 8 beta for some reason.
popular vote by color:
purpleelection.blogspot.com
Oregonian just called the race for Merkeley.
The Palin lack of knowledge story (Africa is a continent) - 538 readers had that three days ago - my source was right!
http://www.oregonlive.com/special/index.ssf/2008/11/senate.html
One more senate seat (first?)
Interesting article regarding voter turnout estimates: More votes cast in '08 presidential race than '04
I've got to hand it to you: while I'm personally bummed about the outcome (not an Obama voter), I'm impressed with how tightly you nailed the predictions. The work you've done here gives me faith both that the law of large numbers works in practice and that we can still get good, objective information even from partisan sources. Well done. I'll look forward to next time, with the hope that your map will be turning red.
@Ole Foresberg:
I used to teach it too. With exceeding rare exceptions, the vote in the electoral college is equivalent to a ministerial act, not a discretionary one. (For those of you unfamiliar with the teminology, a ministerial act is one which a public official is suty bound to perform; a discretionary action is one for which that official has, not surprisingly, some discretion.)
The last time an elector's choice had a real impact on an election was in 1800. And in any event, I was talking about the question of what is an official count of the votes.
wv= sultiu
One who insults
Dr. Michael McDonald estimates that the ultimate number of votes cast is 133.3 million.
http://elections.gmu.edu/Blog.html
At first I thought that seemed high, relative to the current vote total of 121.9 million, but another expert, Dr. Curtis Gans, has a similar estimate, pegging the total vote count at 134 to 135 million.
Dr. McDonald gives a breakdown of the estimated vote count by state, and by comparison with the current vote count, about 7 million of the 11 million outstanding votes are in CA, OR and WA, where Obama won a large majority.
If I assume that th remaining votes give Obama a 15 point margin and average that with the 6.1 point margin on the votes received so far, I come up with an ultimate winning margin of 6.9 point.
A 7 point wining margin would be truly impressive!
Merkely ahead in OR by less than 400 votes but projected as winner.
wv=ading
Someone subtracted from adding.
Update - Actually the situation in Hillsborough County, FL is worse than I said. Now they are admitting almost all the early voting machines failed and there are more like 90,000 votes (at least) uncounted.
Sigh.
Incredible accuracy in your projections. Kudos!
rebecca:
I can't believe that news about Hillsborough county. Do you have any links to any news pages about it?
Nate was just cited by Maddow as the most accurate pollster for the popular vote result.
Gratz!
Maybe of interest only to me, but I just noticed that Obama d/n carry a single county in Oklahoma. As far as I can tell, that is the only state that is true for. Even WY and UT and ID have some blue counties.
So, now that Axelrod won this election by a much larger EV margin than Rove ever did, I wonder if people will stop talking about the genius of Rove.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2126470/posts
Somebody linked to this earlier, but this election has sent the Freepers around the bend: not only are they saying the GOP needs to get more conservative, but they are--as always--preaching fiscal responsibility. I'm a Blue Dog, but it always cracks me up when the right harps on about fiscal sanity while running up massive deficits whenever they're in office. Just a quick and dirty statistical look at the change in the federal debt as percentage of GDP based on which party is in the White House should suffice to show the fallacy of the GOP's ability to balance the budget:
Term Party Debt/GDP
1961 Dem - 8.2%
1965 Dem - 8.3%
1969 GOP - 2.9%
1973 GOP + 0.1%
1977 Dem - 3.2%
1981 GOP +11.3%
1985 GOP + 9.2%
1989 GOP +13.1%
1993 Dem - 0.6%
1997 Dem - 8.2%
2001 GOP + 6.9%
2005 GOP + 3.9% (projected)
*note: the year actually denotes the four-year period starting in that year, and the change is the +/- of the debt/GDP over that time span
WV-hertscru: something that is bad for rowers
I just discovered what happened to McCain's ground operation. It's all explained on the webpage of Concerned Women of America. Here is the relevant bit:
CWA’s prayer chapter in the little town of Post, Texas, outside of Lubbock, reports that it met this morning at 6:30 a.m. with several members joining together “to pray for the nation and for the election.” The Post chapter is also participating in a 12-hour prayer vigil during the hours the polls are open.
Prayer is the most powerful resource we have. All around the country, CWA members are praying. As you go vote, don’t forget to “pray” before – and after! – you take “action” by going to vote.
Maybe next time, they'll put their faith in telephone calls and canvassing.
Just piling on in the praise:
By far the best geeky-great Monte Carlo meta-analysis -- beats anything out there. (Stan Ulam would be proud.)
In the last few weeks whenever I worried that our country would not do the right thing in this election (hey, look at what happened in the last two), I went to fivethirtyeight and was reassured (usually) that the rigorous numbers were on our side.
You also showed that hard-core analysis could mix nicely with interesting, insightful, and often amusing commentary (I'm remembering here the "Does John McCain have cooties?" headline). Unlike most pollsters, you never tarted up the results, or misrepresented them, to generate hype (emotional overfitting).
You guys, of course, absolutely have to do this in every future election!
And, by the way, getting the popular vote within 1/10th of 1 percent definitely qualifies as rock star. Everything but Indiana, really, and you had that at about 30%.
In her show on MSNBC tonight, Rachel Maddow reviewed the various election predictions, and gave top honors ("A+") to Nate Silver of fivethirtyeight.com for the most accurate prediction.
Take a bow, Nate. You showed 'em.
Update from NC: A news report for major daily has confided that they have called all the counties to see how many provisional votes they have to count because we still have a very close state race to call. The very good news is that the provisionals (just over 40,000 of them) are mostly in counties where there were student and new voter issues. And, even better, most of these counties went for Obama. So, I think Obama will end up with 50.1% to 50.2% of the vote with around 2,148,330 or something like that. Here is some true justice...it appears that Barr was the SPOILER for McCain. McCain is trailing by around 13,746. I think that in the end, he will be behind by about 25,000 votes. And Barr got 25,418 votes so far. I cannot imagine that many Libertarians would have voted for Obama. We did have 14,000 write-ins, but we didn't have Nader on the ballot.
For those of us who gave our blood, sweat and money for Obama, we are ready to award our 15 electoral votes to Obama! It may take a week to get these votes in and verified but it is looking good! I so want us to be the MOST southern state that went blue...Florida does not count as southern, but so happy that are blue too!
Faifax County in Virginia just dropped in another 100,000 votes. The Absentee total. Obama won the absentee vote almost 2-1. raising his margin in the state from 155,000 votes to 185,000. Still several other counties in the Tidewater and NVA to deliver their absentee vote. Virginia actual creates aprecinct for each county (or in Fairfax case three precincts for the absentee vote. Ultimately Virginia will produce about 200,00 more votes not what Nate projected above.
Probably I'm not the first to post this, but I'd like EVERYONE to follow this link. The original print article is on the Editor's page of The Guardian from London. This is the Holy Grail of British liberal journalism. Like if the Queen was the editor, she'd be knighting you with this, Sir Nate.
(Seems like a strange URL in th link. If it doesn't work, google guardian.co.uk and search for 'Nate'
http://browse.guardian.co.uk/search?search=nate&sitesearch-radio=guardian&go-guardian=Search
Great work, I really appreciate the work you've put in for this election. You got a shout-out on MSNBC for being the most accurate predictor of the popular vote. Well done.
Great job Nate and Crew!
I had rcommended your site to every politico in Colorado. A 0.1% PV miss?!! Fantastic job ... this was the best site for 2008 period.
Cheers
Glenn (Former Colorado State Representative)
"conspicuously close to our pre-election estimates" - but if you add these estimated totals in, then it changes the percentages to Obama 52.6%, McCain 46.1%. That's not bad but it's a little less conspicuous.
In fact, a simple median of the two-candidate margin led to an equally good estimate. See the evaluation of the Princeton Election Consortium, which did this. It was also closer in projecting the Electoral College outcome - off by 1 EV because of NE-2.
Andy JS said
Some interesting trivia: On the current figures, the total number of Democrat votes actually fell in Louisiana and Arkansas, (although there are obviously a few more votes coming in).
Katrina & Rita have decimated the population in LA - i'd expect that's one good reason why total Democratic votes fell in LA... just my opinion
You did a great job handicapping the outcome of the election, but my guess is that Obama's margin will expand more than you predict. California alone has over 2,000,000 uncounted ballots. It also looks like places not being looked at, such as Georgia, may have more votes to be counted. Florida also came out with an increased lead in their final results. Meanwhile, in 2004, Kerry gained ground, about 500,000 net votes, in the post election day reporting.
Terrific poll maps, Nate, but see if you can work one more, very important poll into your site: the crucially important, the General Election Results by County, as posted by Wiki here http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:2008_General_Election_Results_by_County.PNG
Ironically, at first glance, this does not seem like an important poll map; it emphasizes rural, low-population density space over a weighted popular vote.
But this map, which is an even more "red" echo of the 2004 "Bush wins heartland states vs Kerry" map, actually highlights just how rural so much of America is - and how RURAL COUNTIES are serviced ALMOST ENTIRELY by RIGHT-WING radio & TV. This is why Michelle Bachman won re-election despite her appalling, divisive, snearing campaign comments - the Minnesota radio & TV (corporate) media simply refused to broadcast Bachman's devisive, demeaning comments, or downplay them, so voters never got a TRUE PICTURE of Bachman's demeaning, divisive agenda. On a drive from Greensboro to Durham, NC the week before the election, I heard Rush Limbaugh on _5_ stations at one time (and righty Dennis Miller on a 6th), with NO alternative "liberal" stations could I find in range. This despite Greensboro and Durham being modern, up-and-coming cities with large college student and urban, progressive, populations!
The president Elect needs to use his media and community organizing skills to address this RURAL RED COUNTIES disparity, because the Right-Wing media never sleeps, and never tires of BLAMING Democratic leaders, and progressive policies, for their won FAILED "Deregulation!" and insider corruption, and oil/credit economic monopoly economic policies.
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Too funny!
But sadly true. Here is my take.
I have a B.B.A circa 1973, but I don't think budgets have changed much in the intervening years, I have seen a budget in the corporate world, and this is no "budget"! I would love to be in the CBO when this
"budget" is submitted for analysis!
Remove the front and back pages, the header pages and the Power point graphics and you are down from 19 to about 10 pages of "substance".
Of these 10 pages, about 8 are devoted to propaganda bashing President Obama's proposal and about 2 pages of "solutions".
One "solution" health care costs is to cross shop health insurance among states. So, let us say I get quotes from 3 states. State 1 is 890, state 2 is 835 and state 3 is 910 per month..
The republican "solution to health care costs" only resolves the fact that I cannot afford health insurance in multiple states. You cannot make this up!
And republicans wonder why they were resoundingly kicked out of office?? Please see exhibit A.
This is just a brochure that would be at home on one of the end tables in the lobby of the RNC.
More appropriate for reading while awaiting your stall in the men's room...
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