Right now, Barack Obama has 63.7 million popular votes to John McCain's 56.3 million, whereas third party candidates have roughly a collective 1.6 million. That works out to 52.4 percent of the vote for Obama and 46.3 percent for McCain ... conspicuously close to our pre-election estimates of 52.3 percent for Obama and 46.2 percent for McCain.
I went through and tried to estimate where the outstanding votes are, by simply extrapolating outward from the current results in each state that has missing precincts. This is fairly crude, obviously ... in Oregon, for instance, a disproportionate amount of the uncounted vote is in Portland, so Obama will probably perform better than these numbers. Nevertheless, here are the numbers of votes I estimate to be outstanding in each state:State Obama McCainSo, roughly another 1.8 million votes for Obama and 1.3 million for McCain ... most of the "missing" votes are in strong Obama states. That should get Obama's margin in the popular vote up to about 6.3 points, or a net of around 7.85 million votes.
Washington 695,268 499,804
Oregon 310,503 238,511
California 191,120 115,622
Colorado 96,463 84,083
Ohio 54,438 50,229
New York 44,014 25,994
Florida 41,451 39,482
Maine 33,925 23,641
Illinois 33,253 19,938
Pennsylvania 32,170 26,102
New Hampshire 30,948 25,299
New Jersey 20,949 15,565
Connecticut 19,262 12,373
Massachusetts 19,093 11,152
Georgia 18,295 20,428
Virginia 18,106 16,539
Maryland 14,234 8,821
Indiana 13,811 13,546
Arizona 8,602 10,231
Arkansas 8,516 12,894
South Carolina 8,510 10,189
Alabama 8,197 12,765
Vermont 6,247 2,951
Mississippi 5,231 6,914
Nebraska 3,191 4,439
Alaska 812 1,377
TOTAL 1,772,938 1,342,580
There are also provisional and absentee ballots to be counted in many states ... the former will tend to favor Obama, the latter McCain. Total turnout should be somewhere in the 125-130 million range, actually not that much higher than 122 million that turned out in 2004, but still very impressive by modern standards.
11.05.2008
The Popular Vote
@ 5:06 PM
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
237 comments
You should change the win percent to 100.
Still putting out the best work!
You are stellar!
Thanks!
First on this joyous day?
So, you're saying that the model overall worked out ridiculously well, only missing one state (possibly Omaha, what's going on there anyway?!) and one/two senate races?
Nice.
wv- 'popperif' The sound of Republican talking heads exploding after President-Elect Obama won.
At least it's yunlikely we'll see any lawsuits for the presidential election votes this time around.
Thanks for all the great work, Sean.
Ohio and Virginia are identical, or is that a double post?
How generous of Nate to pdo all this work.
Check out http://www.xkcd.org/500/ for a 535 reference (As with all xkcd comics, there's information hidden in the alt text).
Wonder how long it'll be before AP calls NC, MO and GA (technically not called yet but the networks have it painted red - last I heard, some counties hadn't added in the first two weeks of advance voting, only the final week). What happened to the Oregon Senate race, anyway?
Nate, I'm looking forward to finding out how reality squared up to the model, once all those extra votes come in.
These guys took a more extensive look at turnout. It doesn't appear that it'll be much higher than in 2004, as Nate says. Why did Obama fail to turnout voters in NY, CA, and other states with a lot of African-Americans (see link for state-specific numbers)?
This is GREAT NEWS! For FIVETHIRTYEIGHT.COM!!!
Seriously, you guys did an amazing job. I wasn't even worried about the outcome. I hope you guys like lots of money, because I think a lot is coming your way.
And most of those outstanding votes in Oregon are also going for Merkely.
Any specific thoughts on Nebraska's 2nd district? Right now, McCain has a lead of 569 votes there but there are more than 9,000 early votes yet to be counted. How do you think they'll break? You talk about NE in general, but not the second district.
http://www.omaha.com/index.php?u_page=2835&u_sid=10478951
"With all precincts reporting results, McCain led Obama by 5,853 votes out of more than 2.9 million counted. That's a margin of 0.2%age points.
The Secretary of State's office says an estimated 7,100 provisional ballots are outstanding across the state. Provisional ballots are cast when voters' names can't be found on the books used by poll workers, and are counted only if a voters' eligibility can be verified.
It could be Nov. 18 before those results are known."
from
http://www.nebraska.tv/Global/story.asp?S=9298429&nav=menu605_2
anyone else have any info on Missouri??
Amazing. I love still looking at numbers.
Also, I'm curious about the composition of the vote, to see if and what votes were lost, that may have counterbalanced some of the projected voter turnout surge-- which may account for the entirely modest increase.
Numbers!
Feeling pretty good about yourself, aren't ya?
(Congrats!)
Thanks for running this site. You are still providing the information some of us need!
I have really appreciated the numbers and the stuff on the ground game.
To be honest I have only glanced at the photos. Sometime I will go back through them.
Or are you about to turn this into an illustrated book? I hope so.
Thanks again
Peter Welch
Where are the missing vote totals for Missouri and NC???
(WV: nitiol. What you've been burning!)
So does this mean that the "1 million missing votes in Georgia" argument is not something this site believes to be valid? Has anyone outside of the comments section addressed this?
I'd love to read your post-mortem on Greg Palast, the biggest "concern troll" EVER!
Anyone have estimates for the number of provisional ballots cast in MN? Franken is now down by only 475 from 708 earlier today.
Congrats and good work Nate.
Now we begin the arduous process of convincing the 48% who didn't vote for Obama why 52% is any more of a mandate than GWB's 51%.
Is there a website with a minute by minute chronological accounting of yesterdays events? I can't find one thus far and would like to read that.
I was busy all day and night campaigning for my own project:
www.cuttingconfessionsfilm.blogspot.com
www.myspace.com/372390338
Barack Obama would never be President-Elect today if he hadn't taken the initative a few years back to start knocking on doors and organizing people. In my own way, I'm attempting the same thing and it is hard-just as I imagine his journey is, was and will be.
So if the vote percentages came out the same as predicted by the polls, does that mean that GOTV didn't make any difference? Or was the GOTV effort equal for both parties? Or was the effect of GOTV built in to the polling data in terms of voter enthusiasm?
I appreciate all of the posts about field organizing, but do we have any quantitative data to measure its effects now that the election is over?
your predictions were amazing. you rule. :)
I'm a suburban mom who was in Grant Park last night with my daughter. It's still surreal. I've followed this site for weeks. You guys' predictions and commentary are on point, every time! You're rock stars in my book.
Some of the 538 state projections are fairly impressive too. I'm sure you're the type that is anxious to compare state by state results to the model, Nate. Please share the results with us!
538.com on the presidential election: almost perfect
538.com on the Senate: that "Begich 100%" (not to mention the "Merkley 92%") is begging for some kind of explanation, no?
Today on POTUS 08, I was informed that the total vote in this election for president was 135 million, with 64.1% of all eligible voters casting a ballot (highest rate since 1908). If that were the case, wouldn't there be about 15 million votes left to count?
Where's the porn? I'm so psyched!
Outstanding job! This site has been a lifeline since Nate was Poblano.
Alaska still has at least 50,000 early and absentee ballots out; the Begich campaign says 60,000, with another 6,000 provisional ballots. Senator Stevens is ahead by about 3500 votes. So it ain't over. In Alaska the early ballots are just a variety of absentee ballots, and I think a lot of Obama voters (like me) voted early. There may be as much as 20% of the total vote still out.
I don't know where those MN votes are coming from. SOS lists 100% or precincts since this morning, but Franken keeps getting closer. It is sure to go to a recount either way, so we won't have a final results for weeks. But history shows the candidate who is ahead going into the recount usually prevails. MN SOS is a Democrat. I think previous SOS (Kiffmeyer) would have found a way to foul things up in Coleman's favor.
You guys did a fantastic job! Thank you!
Turnout not significantly different from 2004? Seriously? What the hell happened?
Interesting that so many sources were expecting a turnout of around 130-140 million. I guess they're going to have to review some of their methods for estimating turnout in the future.
"nate silver taught numbers how to fuck."
http://wonkette.com/404198/so-which-pollsters-live-which-will-be-killed#more-404198
When the final count is in, it will be between 130 and 140 ml.
Nate is wrong. He could be out on the margin by as much as 50%!
Agreed Alaska could change, although it's a long shot. I simply can't believe there would be fewer votes cast in the state in 2008 than in 2004, and if that is the case, there are 100,000 votes to be counted there. That's a third of the vote.
OR-SEN is going to go blue. They simply appear to have sent all of Portland's ballots to a single retiree community for counting between rounds of bingo. It will take a little time.
There will be a recount in Minnesota and who knows?
All eyes will turn to Georgia.
Don't your numbers then indicate a significant decrease in turnout in CA from 2004 to 2008 with smaller but still significant decreases in OH and NY.
Comparing the state projections here to actual results, it looks like the model was off by an average of just under 4%. But this is misleading, as big misses in just 4 states (AK, HI, VT and DC) distort it. The median was only 2, which is just amazing to me. In total, it looks like the model underestimated Obama's strength in states he won, and overestimated it in states he lost. To put it another way, he won blue states bigger and lost red states bigger than predicted. The underestimates were bigger than the overestimates, and in total the model looks to have leaned to McCain by about half a point.
What blows me away the most is how well the model did in states where there wasn't much polling. Look at TX, for exapmle. MS. TN. The model used national polls to feed into its state projections, and the results seem to validate that approach. Hot damn!
Elections will never be the same. Thank you Nate, Sean, Brett, and everybody else who brought this thing together.
Nate,
You are a golden god.
Thanks for your comfort, intelligence, tenacity and energy.
Nate my man, you are a numbers GOD! Where do you find the time for this AND NPR!
I keep hearing the turnout has been so much better than 2004. If it's only say 125 million, who are those 3 million?
I heard mention on the show this morning that virtually every African American that was registered, voted. Would that possibly mean that some other demographic turned out in fewer numbers?
Seriously, you rock.
About Oregon & Alaska:
Why is it that they take so long to tally their votes? I know that Oregon votes by mail, but why does that make it take so many times longer than everyone else? If anything you'd think it would mean they could count in advance. Or, even if that's not allowed, what about it makes it take so long?
As for Alaska, okay, I know its remote... but I also know they have phones! What's up?
State: NC's final ballots may expand Obama's lead
Associated Press • published November 5, 2008 11:47 am
RALEIGH – North Carolina's election chief says he wouldn't be surprised to see Barack Obama's slim lead in the state increase as counties count thousands of provisional ballots.
State Board of Elections director Gary Bartlett estimated Wednedsay there are about 40,000 provisional ballots, cast by voters whose eligibility to vote must be confirmed.
Advertisement
Quantcast
He said history suggests that about 65 percent of those ballots will be eligible and they are likely to break toward the winner in numbers similar to that of Election Day.
Unofficial election results show Obama with 12,106 votes more than Republican rival John McCain. Obama has already won the race to the White House, even without North Carolina's final results.
I'm sitting in class, perusing county by county results on the NYTimes site, and my mouse rolled over Ohio. I was shocked to find that John Kerry got more votes in Ohio than Barack Obama. Is the real story that Republicans didn't turn out in Ohio yesterday?
Look at the numbers in Cuyahoga County (Cleveland), Hamilton County (Cincinnati), Franklin County (Columbus), Lucas County (Toledo), and Summit County (Akron). Obama and Kerry are pretty much tied, but GOP turnout is depressed.
In the five counties that Obama won and Kerry didn't, including Wood, Sandusky and Ottawa counties surrounding Toledo, Lake County north of Cleveland, and Tuskawaras County south of Akron, Obama did earn more votes than Kerry, but not as many as Bush did in '04. In Lake County, Kerry had 5,000 more votes in 2004 than Obama received yesterday.
In the only county to switch from Kerry to McCain, Jefferson County (east, near WV), there were 23,000 votes cast, down from 36,000 in 2004.
I'm a huge Obama supporter, and have many friends who devoted laudable hours to help elect him, but the numbers don't support the conclusion that GOTV helped as much as lack of enthusiasm for McCain hurt.
Did I miss something? Do the numbers on the NYT site not include early voters?
"538.com on the Senate: that "Begich 100%" (not to mention the "Merkley 92%") is begging for some kind of explanation, no?"
No. Begich 100% was based on two polls after Nate correctly assumed that he could toss out the pre-conviction polls. There is no explanation that is needed there, other than the polls were way off, or there was a 'Stevens Effect' in Alaska where polled people didn't want to admit they were voting for a convicted felon, but since he was so good as stealing pork for them they did once they showed up at the polls.
The Merkley 92% result looks like it will still prove to be correct as Merkley is now "losing" by just a couple thousand votes, with some deep blue counties still yet to turn in their votes. Multnomah county alone shows that it has turned in less than 50% (according to cnn.com), and Merkley is leading in what has been turned in there so far by a rate of two to one, so that alone could be a pick up of 60,000+ votes for Merkley.
So, in summary so people can stop asking this:
Alaska didn't work because the pollsters were wrong.
Merkley is going to work. Just wait and see.
My "cagey" predictions entry for the DKos comp:
Democratic Senate Seats: 55
Republican Senate Seats: 42
Democratic House Seats: 260
Republican House Seats: 175
Obama Electoral Votes: 291
McCain Electoral Votes: 247
Obama Popular Vote %: 51
McCain Popular Vote %: 49
I knew the 6 million voter scubbing (at least) electoral fraud, courtesy of Republican Secretaries of State, would diminish Obama's power to govern. Hopefully a couple of senate seats will flip.
Nate is missing huge numbers of early votes and absentee ballots, mostly on the Pacific coast and in Arizona but also a big chunk in Georgia. Final collated votes will be over 130 million -- and if all the provisional ballots are counted we could be closing in on 136 million according to one estimate I've read.
Nate, you suck.
Just kidding, you rule!
I knew the 6 million voter scubbing (at least) electoral fraud, courtesy of Republican Secretaries of State, would diminish Obama's power to govern.
Obama 2008: Exploding the balls of concern trolls worldwide.
According to the GMU early voting site, Alaska had over 314000 votes cast in 2004. Now, with the govenor on the ballot Alaska only has ~220000 votes + 60000 early votes?
Did having Palin on the ticket cause Alaskans to lose enthusiasm?
Just seems weird to me.
Nate, you are definitely underestimating the votes still to come from FL. Here in HIllsborough County (where Tampa is) the election was a procedural debacle. Literally 1/2 of the early voting machines broke altogether. We had 56% early voting and only 1/2 of those are counted. Plus two (poor, black - go figure) precincts in Tampa had machines that didn't work last night and they are trying to retrieve the data. Even the very embarrassed supervisor of elections admits that, conservatively, there are at least 75,000 votes left to count just in Hillsborough County. These will break very disproportionately for Obama. Everyone knows that the early voting favored Obama by a wide margin here, and it is safe to say there will be very few McCain votes coming from the two black precincts that got screwed last night.
Oh, and here's a fun bonus fact - the supervisor of elections who is responsible for this disaster is himself up for reelection in a close race, and we don't know if he won because the votes haven't been counted.
wv=antry. Our elections supervisor is the antrychrist.
Seth, the real story on turnout in Ohio is that vote-rigging from 2004 needs to be more thoroughly investigated. There was massive fraud and it is quite likely that the fraud was achieved through dialing up numbers on the machines. There's no way Ohio had as many actual votes as they reported in 2004 -- none.
@fredct
About Oregon I have no idea.
About Alaska, Fox (whatever they're worth) inelegantly reports that it's AK Division of Elections policy to certify within 10 days.
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/04/alaska-results-counted-days/
My understanding is that it's not a problem of counting speed, but that they just won't report the number while they are waiting for all the votes to arrive, which they do for 10 days.
Keep doing what you're doing. We appreciated getting the dope from someone who knows what he's doing SO MUCH! this election season.
If you go back to baseball, good luck there. (Maybe my husband will continue to appreciate you!)
We'll all likely have to access this info plenty of times in the next fews days (weeks? months?) so here it is for convenience:
2004:
Bush
62,040,606 51% 286 EVs
Kerry
59,028,109 48% 252 EVs
(11-05) 04:00 PST Washington -- President Bush proclaimed his election as evidence that Americans embrace his plans to reform Social Security, simplify the tax code, curb lawsuits and fight the war on terror, pledging Thursday to work in a bipartisan manner with "everyone who shares our goals."
Bush staked his claim to a broad mandate and announced his top priorities at a post-election news conference, saying his 3.5 million vote victory had won him political capital that he would spend enacting his conservative agenda.
"I earned capital in this campaign, political capital, and now I intend to spend it," Bush told reporters. "It is my style."
Frank, I recall Greg Palast or one of his associates saying that Alaska's vote totals from four years ago were "completely implausible." Maybe this time they decided to throw votes out instead of stuffing the ballot box?
In any case, a national investigation and audit is needed, desperately.
Any chance of an Obama cabinet thread? Looks like it's Rahm Emanuel for White House Chief of Staff. If he wasn't in congress he'd be perfect, the best man for the job.
I'm glad Dick Luger's out.
About Oregon & Alaska:
Why is it that they take so long to tally their votes?
In Oregon, they compare signatures on the mail-in envelopes with the signatures on voter registration cards, one by one. That might have something to do with the speed. It also looks like more voters this year waited until the last day to turn in their ballots.
wv: rusad. R U sad about the election? Absolutely not!!
I don't know that those AP numbers are a fair indicator. This article at least, which relies on estimated numbers from a professor at George Mason pegs the turn out much higher - over 133 million or 62+ percent. I think we will be revisiting this issue in the coming days and weeks.
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081105/ap_on_el_pr/voter_turnout
It looks like the increase in turnout thanks to John Kerry and George W Bush's efforts in 2004 was a lot greater than in 2008. Turnout increasd by around 16 million votes in 2004, from 106 to 122 million. It looks like the increase this time will be less than half of that. The overall result was very satifactory, though.
Seth you must be one of the few people unaware that George Bush did not actually win Ohio in 2004, just as he did not actually win Florida in 2000.
The Republican scumbag Secretary of State, Kenneth Blackwell, a BLACK man, promised and delivered a Bush victory along with DieBold. Karl Rove also had something to do with it because Georgie was worried about the outcome and Karl told him "Don't worry. We've got it covered."
In some Ohio counties and precincts, more people voted for George Bush than were registered voters and I believe in some cases more voters than residents.
John Kerry knew the trail was hopeless to follow and conceded.
"Agreed Alaska could change, although it's a long shot. I simply can't believe there would be fewer votes cast in the state in 2008 than in 2004, and if that is the case, there are 100,000 votes to be counted there. That's a third of the vote."
I'm really confused about Alaska's vote and where it is all sitting too, although I have sort of come up with my own theory for now, until proven otherwise...
The Anchorage National News had an article today about how different things would be when she came back than from when she left. My own guess is that a lot of the Alaskan base of support didn't want to vote for her, but they also couldn't bring themselves to vote against her, so they simply decided not to vote. This would also explain the Stevens election, as the people who would have still turned out would be the hardcore Republicans who tend to overlook things such as convictions, unless of course they are for democratic candidates.
It would make Alaska seem slightly less insane to me if this proves true. We'll have to see how much more comes in over the next couple weeks to see what truly happened there.
If you believe that it's beginning to feel like America again, an America we recognize, you can proudly express your support for this change with our unique statements:
http://www.cafepress.com/americaagain
jason:
In total, it looks like the model underestimated Obama's strength in states he won, and overestimated it in states he lost. To put it another way, he won blue states bigger and lost red states bigger than predicted.
I wonder if this is an indicator of the effect of the GOTV disparity between the two campaigns, since he won most of the states where GOTV was focused. If you get a chance, could you compare "battleground" states Obama won vs. other blue states to check on that?
The turnout in Ohio compared to 2004 was rather disappointing:
2004:
Bush - 2,858,727
Kerry - 2,739,952
2008:
Obama - 2,673,958
McCain - 2,469,544
Maybe both candidate underperformed in 2008, McCain obviously more so.
I wonder if this proves the old adage that people are more enthusiastic voting against something than for it. In 2004 Democrats were voting strongly against Bush and the Iraq war, and Republicans were voting equally strongly against Kerry, the liberal elitist. In 2008, people were voting for Obama rather than against anyone.
Kudos, Nate!!!
Nate, long time lurker here. I've loved your stuff at BP for years. When I found this site earlier this year I turned everyone on to it and said watch out, this guy is amazing - his PECOTA stuff is uncanny.
When I saw how today's final tallies compared to your predictions to your predictions I just laughed. Well done, well done - bravo!
Go Obama, Go White Sox!
Matt D said...
"nate silver taught numbers how to fuck."
http://wonkette.com/404198/so-which-pollsters-live-which-will-be-killed#more-404198
------
That was very very funny. Required reading for you all.
Seriously, what's up in Minnesota? The state site has shown that 100% of all precincts had reported this morning, yet Franken went from about 2000 votes down when I first started checking to about 500 now.
How can you state that 100% are in, but then have the number sliding around all day? Not that I mind Franken getting closer in the vote -- I'd *really* like to see him win -- but it just doesn't make sense to me.
In Oregon, ballots are manually fed through the optical scan machine after signatures are matched w/ those on the registration cards. Multnomah county is also heavily populated , densly democratic and turnout is close to 85% which is huge. The polls closed at 8 pm as well, which is why, for fear that employees were getting sloppy, they closed up counting at around 130 am to commence today. Final count expected today as 200,000 from mult. county alone have yet to be tallied.
"nate silver taught numbers how to fuck."
Really, that has got to go on the tombstone (a long time in the future of course).
wv pacra: Sun god of the special interest groups.
rebecca,
You have my sympathies being in FL as your state again makes the headlines in a bad way. This is from someone in OH so it's not a slam. Part of my dedication to work at the polls was to try to avoid news cameras in the Cleveland Board of Elections the day after . . .
Looks like we got it much closer to right this year. Still a way to go but we've turned the corner a bit. I hope FL can take some additional steps in that direction so we can eventually enjoy a less dramatic election.
Frank said -
"According to the GMU early voting site, Alaska had over 314000 votes cast in 2004. Now, with the govenor on the ballot Alaska only has ~220000 votes + 60000 early votes?"
That's a good point and a mystery to me unless there are a lot more early or mailed ballots out there than reported.
Alaska is taking its time in part because there were some instances of double voting in the primaries, and the Division of Elections was planning to verify all the early /absentee ballots against the voter rolls. They had said they were counting everything received by Oct. 31 with the regular ballots on Nov. 4, but I don't know if they did. The news stories aren't very enlightening.
I simply don't believe we had a low turnout. This race has generated the most interest and excitement by far in the 27 years I've lived here.
Congratulations on a job very well done. I have been telling everyone that I have been watching the polls via fivethirtyeight and.... you (meaning them) are wrong. Nate has it right.
You made us both look good! (and I can use all the help I can get!)
I hope this results in great things for you. I also hope that you'll be back in four years to help those of us who are more numererically challenged in 2012, 2016, 2020....
Please help us here in Alaska! A convicted felon is likely to win the Senate and a bruiser Republican (Don Young) has won the House seat yet again. When Stevens (the felon) is denied the seat in the Senate I'm betting that Palin will run in the special election to fill that seat. Could a whole lot of Democrats move up here very, very soon (remember, we get a dividend every year) to change our state from Mississippi of the north to maybe Washington of the north?
Please, please...we need help!
Nate - you're a stud. Work on trying to predict the stock market and you can retire.
Hope I won't need to use your site like a comfort blanket in 2012. Great job.
"3E"
Nate and friends, you guys are THE BEST. You made me some dough on your prognostications, and you deserve ALL the attention you've had over the past couple of months. Statistics WORK!!!!! :D
DO YOUR MODELS SHOW WHETHER SARAH PALIN PREFERS ANAL?
DB1: Frank, I recall Greg Palast or one of his associates saying that Alaska's vote totals from four years ago were "completely implausible." Maybe this time they decided to throw votes out instead of stuffing the ballot box?
Porridgegun: I knew the 6 million voter scubbing (at least) electoral fraud, courtesy of Republican Secretaries of State, would diminish Obama's power to govern. Hopefully a couple of senate seats will flip.
OK, I'm as happy as anyone that the margin of victory is big enough that none of these concerns are anything more than academic at the presidential level, but can we please finally use this as an impetus to fix HAVA in such a way that it, I don't know, helps America vote??
You'd think with an 80 seat majority in the House and 57 seats minimum in the Senate (yes, I'm considering Merkley in the bag) you could pass some REAL election reform that allows for national same day registration with verifiable paper ballots and a national database that would solve this nonsense. Legit as the cases of Florida and Ohio may have been, no one likes whiners: Fix the structural problems of disenfranchisement and the voters will reward the Democrats with an even larger majority. It's a no lose situation for Obama: if it passes, he's secured even more votes in the future; if it gets filibustered, hello 60 seats in 2010.
WV: Riess, as in "Obama's vote count will continue to riess over the next few days as the outstanding ballots are counted.
I was wanting to post a "great job!" to all the folks at 538, but couldn't until now....I was too giddy from the news that I'm FINALLY living in a blue state! And thanks to all of you for the commentary that kept me sane until this glorious day.
Totally unscientific very rough back of the envelope thought on Alaska's likely vote totals.
Say USA turnout is 125-130 million. US population ~ 301 million, so... 41.5 - 43.2% of the population voted, say.
Now, Alaska population ~ 700K. Same % voters would mean 290K-302K votes. Official count from yesterday is hung at 208K. So there should be 80-90K ballots left to count, IF there is correlation between national and Alaskan population percentage voting.
This doesn't take into account any unusual enthusiasm because of Palin, or lack thereof because of Stevens...
About the slowness of votes in Alaska and Oregon.
Alaska transports their votes in large trucks across the state. Refer to the show Ice Road Truckers.
In Oregon I believe the law dictates that votes are boxed up and put into covered wagons, then shipped out. They had to ford a river and a few precinct captains have died of dysentery.
@ eva -- "(remember, we get a dividend every year)"
Ironically, perhaps the most socialist state in the union because of this.
[sarcasm] Glad Palin will work to increase it again I'm sure, while not understanding what the term socialism means. I think that the oil companies should just keep all that extra money that they earn. I just hope that Derrick the Oil Barron will be able to purchase his pipeline considering he'll have to give up his profits to pay a dividend to all the people that live in Alaska. [/sarcasm]
Not your fault, of course, but I just find it amazing that of all the people that could have led the socialist attack, they picked someone so clearly tied to a socialist ideal.
Also ironic that the state has some of the biggest pork barrel projects in the union when it is awash in funds.
Good luck eva, your wacky state needs it.
We need a nickname for Barack Obama
Previous Nicknames
George W Bush - "W"
Reagan-"The Great Communicator"
George H W Bush - "Bush41"
Bill Clinton - "Slick Willie"
Any suggestions....or is it to early?
are you going to review the cell-phone effect? seems as if those who tried to account for cell-only voters did worse in their predictions than those who simply weighted by party id. is that your assessment?
Obama 2008: Exploding the balls of concern trolls worldwide.
Well, my "concerns" were proven to be well founded. A shitload of congressional seats didn't pan out, and people here are still scratching their heads over missing votes and inexplicable outcomes in a handful of senate races.
Loralee -
do you think Palast and RFK were wrong??
Damn - I've spoken to 2 people in LA who had to vote provisionally. People who thought they were properly registered.
There are so many conflicting accounts of record turnout, and relatively low vote counts.
Just because Barack won, and won handily, doesn't mean that a ton of folks weren't disenfranchised.
...and according to CNN.com, Merkley is now ahead in the vote in Oregon by about 1200 votes.
I think there are way more votes than that outstanding in California. If you compare the California vote count from two days after Election Day, 2004 to the final, official count from that election, you've got over 2.4 million more votes in the final count.
Oh -
And by the way -
Nate et al - you guys have done a brilliant job. Totally top notch.
Now tell, me; should the Mariners sign Griffey for next year? Can he still do damage DH'ing at Safeco?
goatdan:
How can you state that 100% are in, but then have the number sliding around all day?
The numbers on Election Night and a few days after are uncertified numbers, even though they come from the state electoral authority and sound official. The real, final (pending recounts), official numbers don't come out until the precinct results have been "canvassed," meaning re-checking the results recorded by poll workers against machine counts, making sure procedures were followed that ensure nothing was misplaced, and a whole bunch of other checks to audit the process against human error.
Depending on how frequently the election authority updates their public results, this can make the numbers jump around somewhat between the initial total numbers and the final official count. Movement within a range of a couple thousand wouldn't be terribly unusual for this process.
vw: bercons: the smallest segment of the conservative movement, short for "Berkeley Conservatives."
@ porridgegun -- There are no 'inexplicable' outcomes in senate races. Minnesota and Georgia are about as predicted, and Alaska we can explain just by stating that Alaska is all sorts of f-ed up.
@ redshift -- If that is the case though, shouldn't the results be listed as something like "preliminary" or "estimated final tally" or something?
Saying that 100% is reporting, but then sliding the number around even a few thousand throughout the day means that your original totals were truly just relatively accurate estimates.
TURNOUT IN CALIFORNIA:
2004:
Kerry - 6,745,485
Bush - 5,509,826
2008:
Obama - 6,195,725
McCain - 3,755,298
I know that Nate says there are still around 300K votes to come, but it's clear that turnout has suffered a big decline in California for some reason. Obama has slightly less than Kerry, but the GOP vote has collapsed by nearly 2 million.
Nate, I was so impressed with the two maps on the site yesterday -- actual declared and your projection map. I hope you still have both those graphics because when it comes to polling and your career, that sealed the deal.
The model -- how about a straight name for it: ACCURATE and forget about the acronym thingo. It worked. Your weightings were spot on.
You will go far in this game. Very far. Will you put me in your will? Can I buy stock yet?
SHERWICK said...
When the final count is in, it will be between 130 and 140 ml.
Nate is wrong. He could be out on the margin by as much as 50%!
"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt." - Abraham Lincoln
You were the guy babbling about the final EV being "outside the margin of error" of the prediction from Nate's model, right? You know, the one that had 364 as the 3rd most likely EV total. Move on.
Does anyone else find it ironic that the pollster that caused the MOST hyperventilating among folks here (ZOGBY) was the LEAST ACCURATE of the major pollsters this year??
And as for the ALASKA vote - does it occur to anyone that the pattern is explained by a slew of late voters, KNOWING THAT McCAIN/PAILN HAD LOST BADLY, went to the polls and voted for their felon candidate as a final 'FUCK YOU!" to the voters in the lower 48?
Just a theory.......
Seth, the real story on turnout in Ohio is that vote-rigging from 2004 needs to be more thoroughly investigated. There was massive fraud and it is quite likely that the fraud was achieved through dialing up numbers on the machines. There's no way Ohio had as many actual votes as they reported in 2004 -- none.
And therein lies the story. Diebold delivered, just as promised.
In the Oregon senate race, by far the largest amount of outsanding ballots come from Multnomah Count (Portland, which is 67%-29%, and Lane (Eugene/Springfield), which is running 58-38. Maarion Count (Salem) also has a good number yet to report, which it is only lightly leaning to Smith. The other large counties are mostly in (Washington - Portland's western suburbs and exurbs - where I live, has 93% reporting and a Merkely margin of 4700 votes so far).
When we moved here in 1994 all but one legislative seat in the county was R, and now we hold a clear majority of state reps and senators.
wv=triin
Somebody can't type the first name of a 1970's singer. If I had a hammer, I'd correct him.
On the % of precincts reporting:
This is one of those weird things the network and other news sources need to correct.
What is usually means is # of precincts reporting finalized votes cast on election day at those polls.
It often excludes provisional ballots.
It sometimes excludes early and absentee ballots.
And of course 50% of the precincts might actually cover 25% of the vote, since size varies.
Last night there was the surreal sight of Texas showing over more than 4 million votes in, yet the precincts reporting being only 2%. The extrapolation from that would be that 200 million votes were cast in the state. In reality, the figure was all the early vote + same day results from 2% of the precincts.
So in other words - don't assume 100% precincts reported means 100% of the vote is in. California, for example, has between 3-4 million votes to count, even though the precincts counted total is getting close to 100 in the official reports.
Trenchman003:
but can we please finally use this as an impetus to fix HAVA in such a way that it, I don't know, helps America vote??
Amen to that! It's as Orwellian a piece of legislation as the "Clear Skies Initiative."
Well, my "concerns" were proven to be well founded.
I'd submit that that's because there was no way your concerns could have been *disproven*.
Seriously, what in your view would have put your concerns to rest? What conceivable result could have been available at this moment that would make you think that voter registration issues didn't have any substantive effect on the election?
wv: epidesic, something I should be taking right now to ease the pain of getting into this whole discussion in the first place
"I know that Nate says there are still around 300K votes to come, but it's clear that turnout has suffered a big decline in California for some reason. Obama has slightly less than Kerry, but the GOP vote has collapsed by nearly 2 million."
Five comments above yours, somebody pointed out that California's "official" vote total was 2.4 million higher than what was being reported the day after election day in 2004.
I think we're just going to have to wait two weeks before we can start comparing 2004 and 2008 numbers and predicted and final numbers and drawing grand conclusions about turnout and pollster accuracy.
Slow-motion online fun for next couple hours: Watching Merkley pull away with the OR win as the Portland votes finally get counted. Portland also gets my vote for coolest spontaneous celebration last night, as shown here:
http://captivewildwoman.blogspot.com
I echo tomthress' caution in comparing actual numbers at this point. Most states allow at least 10 days for foreign and domestic mail-in ballots to arrive and for review of provisional ballots.
At my polling location, we had quite a few provisionals, for all sorts of reasons. Small numbers like these across the country add up to a lot of votes.
Still, the turnout does not seem to be much larger (if at all) than in 2004. It'll take quite a while to figure out exactly what happened.
We are planning to go to the inauguration. Anyone on here planning to go? I assume the event is free since it is outside. But just to check do you need tickets for this event?
I think we're just going to have to wait two weeks before we can start comparing 2004 and 2008 numbers and predicted and final numbers and drawing grand conclusions about turnout and pollster accuracy.
Exactly. I know we're all used to instant gratification and a relentless supply of data in almost any other genre, but elections and vote counting can be quite slow, especially by our hourly news-cycle standards.
Kos said a short while ago that the CA Field Poll estimates total CA voter participation at around 13M, and that so far only 10M votes have been tallied. There's probably a boatload more votes in CA (and probably in many other states) that haven't been counted yet, that won't change the outcomes or margins of most elections (but may with a number of others).
A couple weeks sounds about right.
Just remember that none of the vote totals are anything more than numbers put together for the benefit of the public and the news media.
They have no official meaning. The true totals are the ones reported by what official body is responsible for certifying the vote totals.
Expect the final figures to be at least 5 million above the current, and quite likely well more than that.
wv=anide
A chemical salt frequently found in people's rectums?
or is a comment that was intended to be snide but didn't come close?
Is there any uncounted vote that will effect, or could effect, these Senate races?
i gotta ask, is ACORN paranoia on the right the equivalent of Diebold paranoia on the left? The Diebold concern trolls here seem pretty out there. I think 2008 teaches us that an inspirational candidate will trump a fake controversy.
On behalf of California, I want to offer my sincere apologies for the outcome of Prop 8. We really are good people, even if a bit ignorant on certain subjects!
But a great night otherwise, thanks 538!!
BWWAAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHAH!
The freepers are bringing on the civil war in the republican party. They still love Sarah Palin. This could get very interesting as the repgs try to bring back together the social and "normal" conservative movements.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2126470/posts
538.com on the Senate: that "Begich 100%" (not to mention the "Merkley 92%") is begging for some kind of explanation, no?
Alaska voters are apparently crazy.
Merkley just moved ahead and likely to win with late counted votes from Lane and Multnomah counties.
Prop 8 is by far the worst outcome this round, we need to get a ballot iniative on every ballot in CA on this until we change it.
We also might be succesful getting prop 8 overturned in the courts.
I still find it difficult to process the idea that Obama is going to win 375 electoral votes. Six weeks ago I would have bet anything I own that was flat impossible. McCain was BOUND to win at least ONE battleground state: Indiana, Florida, Ohio, Virginia, North Carolina, Missouri, even if he couldn't win Colorado or Nevada.
To see Obama win them ALL just still floors me.
The Republican party is now just officially a regional rump party in Appalachia, the deep south (minus Florida) and the great plains states of the mid-west, plus Utah, Idaho and Wyoming.
It's the most rural of rural America.
It has NO presence among minorities or voters under 30. It can't attract women or college educated whites.
And yet if you look at the Republican reaction, today, they are just in denial. It's all Bush's fault. America hasn't rejected conservatism!
A black man the Republican party just spent 6 months attacking as a "socialist" won a landslide victory by 7 million votes, but of course America is "still a center-right country."
Republicans did this ostrich act once before -- between 1932 and 1936. They were utterly convinced that voters were bound to reject the horrible socialist idea of --- social security! They went into the 1936 election having learned nothing and got beaten by an even huger margin than in 1932.
It looks like the same thing is going to have to happen before Republicans will be willing to admit that Reagan era right-wing conservatism is dead in America. Just as dead as the New Deal was in 1968.
Why don´t call NC for Obama and MO for McCain?.
It´s 100% reporting in both states.
I'm interested to hear that there might be another 3 million votes in California to be counted. Nate has written at the top of the page that there are only about 300,000 outstanding votes.
It's a bit misleading when the networks are saying that 97% of the CA vote has been counted if in fact there are 3 million votes to come. I know not all precincts have the same number of voters, but 97% gives the impression there aren't 3 million votes outstanding.
Alaska had the worst polling of the cycle. You can't really blame Nate for Begich when every poll had Stevens getting crushed.
Nate, I really like your site and tell my statistics students about it, but you really blew it on this one.
There are 3.5 to 4 million ballots in CA alone and at least a million each in WA and OR.
We all have heavy vote by mail and it takes time to verify signatures.
I expect Obama's final MOV will be closer to 7.5 or 8%
I'll expect your correction in a couple weeks.
RE:Secretary of State
It seems to me that all things being equal, Chuck Hagel and Bill Richardson would make more sense as alternatives for Secretary of State than John Kerry. What do you all think? Obama is going to surround himself with great diversity. Emanuel is Jewish. Hagel, of course is Republican, an expert on foreign affairs, good friends with Biden and has much of a shared philosophy with Obama. He also is uneployed or will be shortly. Richardson is Hispanic, and would be the highest ranking Hispanic ever if he were Sec. of State. He has an incredible resume and depth of experience and is well liked and respected abroad. Apparently Kerry is campaigning for it. If he is obviously the superior candidate for other reasons, then perhaps he makes sense, but to me Hagel or Richardson make a lot more sense.
I may be mistaken, but I believe that a precinct can 'report' its results, without having actually tallied all its numbers, e.g., those from provisional, absentee, etc. In that way, 100% of the precincts can be 'reporting', but still have lots and lots of outstanding ballots to count.
Whoever asked about tickets for inaugural ceremonies - Unless you have a really high powered telescope or something that you can use to see into the Mall from really far away, yes you'll need tickets. There is a fairly good chance you're out of luck already, but your best (likely only) bet is to call your senator/congress critter. The tickets won't be issued until January, but I believe they can put you on a waiting list.
You may have a better shot at parade tickets.
Who will get Obama's Senate seat?
It will be interesting...
Blagojevich said he's "not interested" in appointing himself, the Tribune reports, "but did not expressly rule out the option."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/obamas-replacement-blagoj_n_141561.html
I still think he looks very hard at appointing himself...
What about Hagel for defense and Richardson for Sec. of State?
Here was my prediction:
Obama 52.1%
McCain 46.6%
Third Parties 1.3%
Obama 367
McCain 171
The only state I got wrong was Montana (assuming Missouri goes to McCain and North Carolina to Obama)
I also predicted:
57 Dem Senators
40 Rep Senators
Assuming that Merkeley holds on to win Oregon and there's a run-off in Georgia, the only one I will have missed on is Stevens over Begich. I thought Begich would win it.
My final prediction is closer than any I've seen. So proud.
Just because Barack won, and won handily, doesn't mean that a ton of folks weren't disenfranchised.
Exactly. And it would've been far more apparent if there had been no early voting or high turnout. Same deal in 2006. People either have no idea how much fraud there was in 2006, or have simply forgotten.
justsomeguy said...
Who will get Obama's Senate seat?
It will be interesting...
Blagojevich said he's "not interested" in appointing himself, the Tribune reports, "but did not expressly rule out the option."
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/11/05/obamas-replacement-blagoj_n_141561.html
I still think he looks very hard at appointing himself...
Answer: Jesse Jackson Jr.
Better question to me is who will Palin appoint to replace Stevens. If she appoints herself that will be hilarious.
The AP numbers for turnout will almost undoubtedly turn out to be correct. I'd be very surprised if there aren't 3 million plus votes still to be counted in California. I just looked because I knew I'd sent an email about it and ten days after the election in 2004 the official tally for California had the total down 600,000 for the two major-party candidates over 2000. It ended up being about 1.8 million more. The total for 2004 was 12,255,311. Right now the total for 2008 is just about 10 million.
My guess is that Obama will have won by as much as 7.5% when everything is said and done.
justsomeguy said...
What about Hagel for defense and Richardson for Sec. of State?
Good call. I like it.
Too bad Barack can't just have his kid's take his place in the Senate like someone else might try to do...
http://www.evri.com/person/joe-biden-0x2d99a.html
I'd like to see a comparison of other pollsters final predictions with the final outcome. Mainly just to see RCP, Drudge, et al, eat crow.
eric-
I think Jesse Jr. will be making a mistak if he takes the Senate seat. He will not play well downstate due to his name, Obama had support across the state, Jesse's dad has ruined his chance to do the same.
Hello everyone. I'm just signing on for the day....
Sorry if this was covered, but what was Real Joe's surprise?
justsomeguy said...
eric-
I think Jesse Jr. will be making a mistak if he takes the Senate seat. He will not play well downstate due to his name, Obama had support across the state, Jesse's dad has ruined his chance to do the same.
There's an Asian Woman that is supoosedly really impressive and an Iraq War Veteran/ double amputee. Was she mentioned at Blago's press conference. If I remember right, Obama has an affinity for her.
CJB said...
Too bad Barack can't just have his kid's take his place in the Senate like someone else might try to do...
http://www.evri.com/person/joe-biden-0x2d99a.html
Beau Biden fo sho
I am forgetting her name, but Axelrod ran her campaign and lost it for her at the last minute. She was at the convention, so you could be right. I think she is the better call over Jesse.
You folks think McCain will want to run in 2010? Would Napolitano challenge him? Probably not a smart move, but I heard some smart dems suggesting it.
Hearty congratulations to all at 538!
It is quite staggering what an extremely bright guy can achieve with a PC, Matlab & 2 million data points!
Throughout this season when 538 disagreed with the conventional punditry 538 has been vindicated.
Sean's ground-game reports were vivid and insightful. I even urged him to keep schtum in case the McCain camp realized just how lousy their GOTV was and did something about it - but I need not have worried!
And some great photos too - I hope Brett managed to take a few more yesterday - a miraculous night in the great city of Chicago.
Real Joe said the surprise was Indiana
Hagel for SecDef? Really? Is there a rule that all Secretaries of Defense need to be Republicans, just to show how "serious" Democrats are about national security? I mean, I don't mind some measure of bipartisanship, but this just seems overly gratuitous, and an invitation to more accusations about Dems being weak on defense.
Surely there's a Dem out there who could do a good job in that role. I hope Obama finds him or her.
wv: later. Not now, later.
I don't know what real Joe's surprise was, but the aftermath today had some folks hammering him for homophobia today...anyone got more detail?
Merkley is ahead in Oregon now.
12.4 million votes in California in 2004; 10.3 million now with 96% of the precincts in? Methinks there are lots and lots of absentee, early, and provisional ballots to be counted. Probably not enough to kill Prop. 8 (unless they are all from the Bay Area), but enough to pad President-Elect Obama's (doesn't that sound great!) lead.
Any thought on Susan Rice for a post? Two AA female 40 something Rice Sec. of states in a row? That would be interesting. She might not be qualified, given the other options.
where do you see merkley ahead?
i am certain he will win, but the updates at www.oregonlive.com still have him behind by 1200 votes
Later on, Real Joe expressed pleasure that Prop 8 was passed. There then ensued a lengthy and hot-tempered discussion, which I don't want to start all over again.
I just moved from IL to Delaware - talk about weird. I am currently living in PA in temp housing...
In Delaware it looks like Carney is gaining momentum to get the seat. Biden can resign either under the current gov or the new one to control who does the appointment...
I love how they keep finding more votes under rocks or between seat cushions. I see that since NC, FL, and GA had 99% or 100% of their precints reporting, FL and NC added another 100K each and GA added 200K. At least that explains where the missing GA votes went. Turnout in GA and NC was up significantly - must be the AA vote. I guess that was offset by lower turnout in places like OH, which is why the overall turnout was only modestly higher.
When we get true 100% reporting I'd like to see an a comparison of how the different pollsters did. I'm starting to compile one myself.
One$Earned said...
We need a nickname for Barack Obama
Previous Nicknames
George W Bush - "W"
Reagan-"The Great Communicator"
George H W Bush - "Bush41"
Bill Clinton - "Slick Willie"
Any suggestions....or is it to early?
Either "Hussein" or "The Arab" or "Pres. Boring" or "That One."
"That one" may prove to be John McCain's only legacy.
This is a resounding victory?
US elections are so close. The loser got 46% of the vote.
Not to interrupt the stats talk (and believe me, I'd much rather read that than the prop8 trolling we were getting earlier today), but:
Can anyone provide me a link to *non-amateur* footage of the crowd reaction at Grant Park when the election was called? I've seen some youtube footage but it's all handheld cameras. I'm sure there must be MSM footage, but I had Jon Stewart on at the time, and searches have yielded naught at CNN.
Thanks!
P.S., when I went to work at 7:30am today, the two McCain lawn signs in my neighborhood had already been taken down. Those people moved fast.
You guys are honestly amazing! I think you should run for president in 2016!!!
Hilarious Palin quote on Fox when asked about her plans for 2012:
The Alaska governor has hinted in recent weeks at the possibility of running for president in 2012. But asked about her plans on Wednesday, she replied, "That sounds like years away."
Um, yeah, Sarah, it is years away lol.
Nate definitely deserves supreme credit for nailing the popular vote---if I recall correctly he "manually" adjusted his last poll avg. of a 6.9 margin down to about 6.0. Definitely my own 4.8 (or 5.1) is wrong. And for having VA+NV deep blue, Ohio quite blue, FL more than sky-blue, NC pale-blue, and MO white. I thought Rasmussen picked up late movement in the latter four.
To all those hailing him and this site, let me add that the journey thru America (cue the Simon & Garfunkel music) and campaign-organization reporting added a true dimension. The story "The Big Empty" (whither the photos?) was visually affecting, and represented a different kind of prediction: If it's established that lack of GOP-base enthusiasm for McCain or overall morale lowered their turnout---such as in Ohio where Obama won fewer(?) votes than Kerry (source from above comments)---then the truth of the story Sean and Brett were represented will be confirmed, and it would not be a laughable Pulitzer nomination.
Great job, Nate.
I was a journalist for 14 years, and I'm very impressed with your coverage. Outstanding effort and accuracy.
Sincerely,
Robb Todd
www.robbtodd.com
@ Makapuu:
What is your source for Merkley's being ahead. The SOS site is way behind Oregonlive.com, which has of my F5 30 seconds ago, Smith up by 1138 votes and had never shown Merkley in the lead today.
But Merkely will win since most of outstanding vote is from Multnomah and Lane counties.
wv-sulend
She lent me a book and I have to return it to her (if I can find it)
Nate did NOT manually adjust the number to 6%. The model dropped the final average to 6% from 6.9% based on what has happened in past elections from final pollng.
He did adjust the model to more sensitive to late moves by changing how polls were weighted - polls nearer the end got more weight than those earlier in time.
I think...
were representing I meant, and I meant to include that teasing out any systematic GOP/Dem pollster-response differential from the data is obviously important, though maybe both impossible to do and nonexistent anyway. Here I see he put the number down to 6.1 because of "the fact that candidates with large leads in the polls typically underperform their numbers by a small margin on Election Day." (The day's charts are absent from that link, though---from which I infer that they were generated by scripts. For documentary purposes it would be good to have the option to view the pages exactly as they were.)
Long time fan - first time post
To Nate & Sean - Fabulous work! Now you must devise a cure for our inevitable withdrawal symptoms.
To all whose bleary eyes can still read:
I spent 4 days, including 12 hours yesterday, as a foot soldier & canvasser/driver for Barack's effort in Wisconsin. What an uplifting experience! By the end of our last ward shift late yesterday, every person who was home had voted, and many told us that we were the 3rd Obama volunteer to knock on the door.
Similarly, tens of thousands of Obama volunteers fanned out from each and every Obama field office all over the country, doing their best to convince those who had not yet voted that this was the election of their lifetime. Remarkably, they listened and they voted! And they delivered the election of a lifetime for ALL of US.
The ULTIMATE IRONY:
In this monumental victory, Rudi Giuliani and the entire GOP have now experienced what real shock and awe could be delivered by a community organizer. The world has witnessed how a community organizer could mobilize, empower, and inspire citizens in ways simply not possible by Rudi's rhetoric consisting of "a noun, a verb and 9/11".
To all Obama foot-soldiers:
This victory is for you! But now, stay engaged! The only REAL change we all seek will only happen if WE continue to work to make it happen!
To purveyors of lies and slander:
Believe it or not, this victory is also for you. It will likely take some time for you to appreciate this fact, but Barack Obama will lead in ways that improve life and citizenship for each of us.
To President-elect Obama:
I challenge you to exploit the dedicated army that you and David and David have mobilized. We are eager to make dreams happen!
In return for the excellent work in applying Nate's expertise to politics, and for those of you followers who are finding yourselves in a Raggedy Ann/Andy state today, my expertise from 3 decades as an RN.
I refer to this as an 'adrenalin crash'. Most of us have experienced it on Dec 26th, the day after a birth, a wedding or some other long anticipated and worked for event.
The autonomic nervous system is the basis of our daily functioning. There is the Stress (Sympathetic) side and the Peace (Parasympathetic) side. When we live in a state if constant, elevated stress long enough, the ultimate cessation creates almost a backlash from the peace side to restore balance.
The important thing is to go with the flow. Let the system reset itself. For most of us it should recover in 24 to 48 hours.
Nate, Sean and Brett may want to go back to the ABC sports caster who did the Olympics for years and whose name my adrenalin crashed brain is unable to recall. After whatever Olympics he finished, he would go to a vacation retreat reserved - for two weeks! Then on to prepare for the Olympics 4 years away. I've talked to people who had similar habits after the annual company meeting they were responsible for planning and carrying out. They were anywhere from a long weekend to a week recovering.
So depending on how many daily hours for how many weeks you have spent on this, give yourself enough time to counter the physiologic and psychological stress your body and mind have been working under.
I can predict with 100% accuracy that you will recover, and that it will be faster the more you can devote yourself to it. Invest in anything that promotes release of endorphins: laughter, singing,
and orgasm are the most common. I am especially laughing about the Clinton arguments that Obama could not win the election, unless she was on the ticket.
Great job all.
latin ! I guess this has something to do with the medical nature of the comment :)
jim said...
i gotta ask, is ACORN paranoia on the right the equivalent of Diebold paranoia on the left? The Diebold concern trolls here seem pretty out there. I think 2008 teaches us that an inspirational candidate will trump a fake controversy.
Bullshit.
There is no equivalency between ACORN and Diebold. None. ACORN are to electoral fraud what MoveOn are to swiftboating. Diebold voting machines were exposed years ago by the BBC/Greg Palast and Channel 4, not by American investigative journalism. The ACORN faux-outrage was pushed by fringe right-wing sources like Free Republic and Fox News. HUGE difference.
ginny-
Lots of exercise can also really help...
Merkley is ahead on cnn.com.
@kmills
""
Portland also gets my vote for coolest spontaneous celebration last night, as shown here:
http://captivewildwoman.blogspot.com
""
I love my home town!
With respect to Merkeley's lead, CNN has him up by about 2500.
Saw "justsomeguy's" post after posting my own self-check. He's right on the distinction: the change wasn't a "manual" fudge but rather an automatic adjustment based on regression from past elections---and that this happens is an interesting sociological fact by itself. So I stand corrected.
@judas_priest
""
Just remember that none of the vote totals are anything more than numbers put together for the benefit of the public and the news media.
""
Actually, the only vote that technically counts will be held on the third Monday of December in state houses across the land. That is when the Electoral College actually votes for president, something we did not do.
But, then, I do teach this stuff.
In the aggregate, this was obviously a resounding accomplishment for FiveThirtyEight -- however I am dying to hear the post-mortem on how 100% Alaska went (seemingly) red for Senate.
Unless I missed it somewhere. Thanks for the memories.
@porridgegum:
you say "Diebold voting machines were exposed years ago by the BBC/Greg Palast and Channel 4." They exposed potential for security vulnerabilities. Great. Anything computerized has potential for vulnerability. That isn't voter fraud. One could just as easily throw paper ballots away and replace them with new paper ballots.
What you're talking about isn't fraud. It's a fake controversy. Like all things discussed on this board, people need to give links to legit news sources (showing actual voter fraud, not Republican ACORN-like shady connections or exposes) or shut up about it. It didn't cost Democrats. Kerry being an uninspiring candidate did. (Same with Gore, frankly).
if anyone can find a link to Nebraska D-2 Presidential #s, i'd appreciate it. I can't find the tally anywhere.
I feel like all voters are outstanding. Just saying.
just some guy
Thanks for the exercise point. My updated recommentation to family members of ICU patients; walking is the best exercise, or anything that has the same motion of rhythmic side to side movement. It has even been used for people with PTSD.
Jim,
Your links to legit sources that Kerry and Gore lost because they were uninspiring candidates? You really need to read more, especially if you honestly respect statistical review. Repeating those MSM/CW talking points just exposes gullibility.
Start with Eric Boehlert's "Lap Dogs".
CNN is running behind OregonLive's numbers. It's still looking okay for Merkley for now, but he isn't ahead.
ginny-
I get on my bicycle for a solid 40 mile or longer ride.
One thing we can focus on now is the big picture of voter trending. NYT did a great piece examining which areas of the country shift from blue to red and vice versa since 2004. The GOP should blow up the NYT map to understand exactly where they stand right now.
See for yourself, and smile all over again:
http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2008/11/05/us/politics/20081104_ELECTION_RECAP.html
With NC going to Obama, the EV totals to 364. Pity not-so-bellwether-state-now Missouri seems to go narrowly for McCain. Had MO's 11 EVs gone to Obama, he would have reached 375. Now that's a landslide.
oregon senate (80%)
merkley.. 685,437
smith...... 686,822
multnomah (portland) (60%)
merkley.. 146,775
smith........ 64,111
expected change: merkley +55,109
lane county (Eugene) (69%)
merkley.. 75,597
smith...... 49,264
expected change: merkley +11,830
all other counties are almost done and/or less lopsided and they should result in a wash between the two candidates
=> merkely will win by around 50/60,000 when they are done
MY PREDICTION oregon senate (final)
merkley.. 895,000 (49.3%)
smith...... 835,000 (46%)
brownlow.. 85,000 (4.6%)
YOU ROCK.
I WANT TO ADOPT YOU.
I live in Baja Mexico and if you want surfing lessons, or a week on the pacific coast to sleep and eat shimp tacos.... just come.
YOU TRULY ROCK, NATE SILVER!
Jan
North Carolina is 100% reported.
And it´s Obama by 0.2, but it´s a win.
MO is for McCain.
Associated Press quotes a couple of people estimating the final turnout at 134 million to 136 million. That means 11-12% of the vote is uncounted right now.
I find that amazing. He have a bunch of races hanging in the balance. If that many absentees and early votes are still out, you could easily see FL, NC, VA, GA and MO change hands and have a huge impact on the electoral vote and the perceptions of Obama's victory.
The Minnesota senate race hangs out there, along with some congressional races and CA's Prop 8. Given that the Republicans stole OH with touch screen machines in 2004, I really don't understand why these uncounted votes aren't getting a lot more attention, seeing as how there are so many of them.
Palin will die seems the theme of the day...
"Vanity: Fox News Says Palin Did Not Know Africa Was Continent, Not Country
Fox News | 11/05/08 | vanity
Posted on Wednesday, November 05, 2008 7:18:26 PM by SalukiLawyer
Carl Cameron just said McCain campaign shocked to discover Sarah Palin did not realize Africa was a continent, believing instead that it was a country. She did not know the countries in NAFTA. She refused offered preparation for the Couric interview and threw temper tantrums over adverse press.
Wow. Dumping on Sarah in a big way. Shep asked how on Earth the McCain camp could have ended up picking such a dope (not exact words, but sense of what he said).
They did point out she seemed to help the polling numbers.
I knew this was going to be the template, but I was surprised at the level of nastiness on Fox News. Looks like elements of the McCain campaign is determined to make her the scapegoat for the loss. (Couldn't have been anything about the man at the top of the ticket.)"
@ginny in co:
My link to legit news sources is today's front page of every major newspaper on the planet.
Was it finally cleaning up voter fraud that caused Indiana and Virginia to go blue for the first time since 1964? North Carolina since 1976? Colorado since 1992? Is there a pattern emerging here?
On the other hand, why never any calls for investigation of voting irregularity in, say, CA or OR or WA or PA or NY or IL? Is there a pattern emerging there?
People focused on FLA in 2000 because it was the only state both close enough and with enough EVs to tip the election. Same with Ohio in 2004. That isn't an argument for equal protection. It's cherry picking data. That's my main point.
1. There are tons of uncounted early votes and absentee votes in precincts that have already "reported" results, so extrapolating by the precincts missing will NOT give an accurate picture of the uncounted vote.
2. Both Alaska and Georgia must be questioned. Both show a far reduced voter turnout than in 04 against all odds--in AK because Palin was on the ticket, and in GA because early voting set records and registration was way up. Both states bucked the national trend for higher turnout, with no reasonable explanation. Both states have Republicans in charge of the election machinery. Both states have Republican Senators in tight elections, and if Dems win both, they will likely have a filibuster-proof majority in the Senate. Republicans stole FL and OH in 2000 and OH in 04 in the presidential election. They couldn't do it this time because Obama won too many states. The idea that they would steal the a couple of states in order to preserve their ability to filibuster, though, is perfectly plausible.
Future Blue FL:
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/dbd441a0-ab60-11dd-b9e1-000077b07658.html
"... the most significant Latino pattern was seen in Florida, the largest swing state, where Hispanic loyalties almost precisely reversed from 2004. Mr Obama won 57 per cent of the Hispanic vote in Florida, including a majority of second- generation Cubans – once among the most loyal Republican ethnic groups.
In 2004, President George W. Bush won 55 per cent of the state’s Hispanic vote. The new shift, driven by the Republican party’s increasing resort to anti-immigrant sentiment in the past few years, has been compared by some with the party’s visceral opposition to further Roman Catholic immigration in the 1920s.
By shutting out what were then the country’s fastest-growing ethnic groups, the Republicans helped to pave the way for a generation of Democratic dominance. "
Blue is a good thing.
eric said...
if anyone can find a link to Nebraska D-2 Presidential #s, i'd appreciate it. I can't find the tally anywhere.
Here's the link:
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoral.htm
MSNBC reporting a good lead for MErkley...
Looks like Stevens wins AK...
Louisisana seems weird to me to, people expected 40% AA turnout, and OBama only gets 39%???????
Interesting result (I think)
If you compare Obama's vote percentage to Kerry, you'll find that the states where Obama showed the biggest increase were states with a low population of African-Americans. If you look at the states where Obama gained the least vs. Kerry's percent (or did worse), they were states in the deep south with high African-American populations
Thanks so much for the site, and for all the intelligence and hard work that you and Sean put into it. I hope 538 becomes a lasting fixture in US politics.
Latest result from Nebraska District 2:
John McCain - 126,303
Barack Obama - 125,734
The state poll averages on Pollster were pretty darn good.
http://www.pollster.com/blogs/actual_vote_margin_by_preelect.php
I am VERY surprised at the numbers in the deep south, it puzzles me to the point that it should be investigated, methinks.
For those needing a new obsession, her is the best science site on the web:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/
Some interesting trivia:
On the current figures, the total number of Democrat votes actually fell in Louisiana and Arkansas, (although there are obviously a few more votes coming in).
In West Virginia, both GOP and Democrats total votes decreased.
The result in Oklahoma was a almost identical to 2004 :
GOP: 959,645, (2004 result - 959,792)
Dem: 502,286, (2004 result - 503,966)
Nickname:
Oddly enough, Lou Dobbs might have nailed it tonight. When one of his guests brought out the fact that Obama's community organization skills turned into massively successful campaign organization skills and Dobbs said something like "From community organizer to nation organizer".
He's The Nation Organizer.
are all the image links broken for anyone else?
This is probably a stupid question, but my brain is working very slowly...maybe that adrenaline letdown discussed earlier.
My question has to do with the statistics that are being put together on how people voted. Are these all based on exit polling? And since we believe a huge portion of Obama supporters voted early and aren't included in exit polling, aren't these stats going to be messed up?
juliephx,
Some of the early voters were also exit polled. It is hard to know if the Election Day Exit polling included early voting exit polls, too. I would check the fine print on exit polling.
georgie said...
are all the image links broken for anyone else?
Image links are broken for me too.
Post a Comment