With roughly 24,000 ballots left to be counted tomorrow, the Alaska Senate race is near its official conclusion. No update today, and Democrat Mark Begich's lead over incumbent Ted Stevens remains at 1,022.
Quinnipiac assistant director Peter A. Brown, writing in the Wall Street Journal, says that "Unlce Ted" is "less than even money." Now that's charity. (In other news, the 2-8 St. Louis Rams are "less than even money" to win the NFC West this year.) Brown's piece is more about Sarah Palin preferring Stevens to win so that she could launch a 2012 presidential bid from his seat after he is expelled from the Senate.
Though many Democrats fervently pray for Palin to remain on the national stage as the de facto brand leader of the Republican Party, not allowing Republicans to turn the page, she will not likely get the chance to replace Stevens. Perhaps if and when Representative Don Young's Justice Department investigation moves into an indictment phase, Palin would have an opening for the House.
In California's 4th House district, Republican Tom McClintock leads Democrat Charlie Brown by 622 votes with roughly 25,000 absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted. Both men are attending freshman House member orientation.
In Ohio's 15th House district, another extremely close open seat race, a federal judge today listened to arguments about the counting of provisional ballots, and will rule on the counting of approximately 1,000 ballots by Thursday 5pm Eastern. With thousands of ballots left to count, Republican Steve Stivers leads Democrat Mary Jo Kilroy by 149 votes.
11.18.2008
Penultimate Alaska Update; Uncalled Congressional Races
@ 12:59 AM
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First I hope
victory!
running... out... of... elections... to... cover...
Tomorrow should be interesting all right:
"Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., has said he will ask Senate Republicans at a 9:30 meeting Tuesday morning to vote on expelling Stevens from the Republican Conference."
Whatever will we do?
Amen Sedi. Stevens has been a particular thorn in the side for us Washingtonians. He did his best to get Maria Cantwell unseated in her senate race against Mike! McGavick (yes, his campaign posters proclaimed him to be Mike!) and worked against legislation to clean up Puget Sound. And that was just in the last two or three years.
The idea of a Senator Palin scares me. One wonders whether her Senate colleagues would be successful in telling her to sit down, shut up and learn a bit of something before she speaks up again.
Thank you for having the balls to call VA-05 for Tom Perriello. His victory in the biggest and most rural district in Virginia is one of the great stories of this election.
Time to do a post-mortem. :)
peace,
faithfull
Nate do you have a take on CA4?
Where the remaining ballots are from... who is favored?
If Mary Jo's People had dropped of her lit at the _right_ Obama staging location, instead of _mine_, perhaps it would have gotten them an extra couple hundred votes or so.
Then again, I'm sure we stuck an extra 1000 people in the polls in her part of Columbus, so maybe this isn't over yet...
Punning Pundit
(Ohio Vote Corps)
Off topic here - Now that the American elections are over, too bad you can't do some analysis to other countries political systems. Worldwide there are some really interesting things happening.
Iran's election next year should be interesting with Khatami threatening Ahmadinejad. Chavez's popular majority in Venezuela looks at stake with dropping oil prices. The Tories are looking set to topple Labour in England. And, the ANC is splitting in South Africa.
Now if only we can get you some data...
Since the votes need to be certified today, when should we grab our popcorns?
Nice update Sean, my question is without the Senate path towards a 2012 rekindling of the great Sarah debauchery what else will allow her to keep her perch in the party?
@x0lani
It would be great if they could, but there isn't the data.
Nate's model worked because he looked at polling data from every state, since it's the college that matters. There was regular polling in every swing state.
I can only speak for the UK, but elections here are contested at constituency level (read congressional districts). Win a majority of them and you're PM, even if you don't get the most votes (that's how Churchill won in 1951.) The trouble is, though there are national polls (nowhere near as many as in the US) there are very few constituency polls. I can only speak for the 1997 GE when there were about 40, mostly in "marginals" that Labour were about to take from the Tories.
In fact, Labour's victory was so big in 1997 that they took all the marginals. They actually did better in the next category up, the fairly safe Tory seats, and took more of these than anyone expected - probably because the Tories weren't properly defending those seats. The end result was that although the polls got the shares of the vote about right, they totally underestimated the Labour landslide.
However on the last weekend of the campaign the "Observer" did some polls in this category of seat. They found that Labour (or the Lib Dems) were likely to take some of these seats, including the iconic Portillo seat which was very close. A Nate might have extrapolated from these polls and predicted the landslide, which became evident quite early on election night with that 18% swing in Crosby.
The 2001 election was an almost exact repeat of 1997 so there was less constituency polling there - but by then people believed the polls and knew it was another landslide, so turnout droped accordingly. 2005 wasn't a landslide, but it was pretty clear who was going to win. However, the pattern in both years was not uniform - in 2001 seats changed hands all ways (especially between Tory and Lib Dem) and in 2005 some Labour MPs with small majorities unaccountably hung on, whereas others with bigger majorities were dumped. The Lib Dems were likely to take seats from either party, but unless you were an activist like Mrs B you wouldn't know where.
I think 2009/10 will be fascinating, not just because this is likely to be close - the "hung parliament" is a real possibility - but because different seats may swing in different ways. We don't have much of the rural redneck Tory voter any more - UK has amongst the lowest % of voters engaged in agriculture anywhere - and though we do have seats where the liberal intelligentsia skew a seat less Tory than might be expected, generally the better-off vote Tory - qv Surrey, damn stockbrokers! Other Tory strongholds are the posher seaside resorts fuill of the better-off retired, and rural seats within commuting distance of the cities.
What i think might happen FWIW, is that blue-collar seats where therre have been job losses might go Tory - a lot of these seatsare two major party battlegrounds - whereas more middle class seats might go Lib Dem. Their treasury spokesman is ex-Shell economist Vince Cable, whose pronouncements always engender respect, whereas the Tory shadow chancellor is the youthful gaffe-prone George Osborne who I wouldn't trust to run a Christmas club. (They could ditch him of course.)
A hung parliament could mean one where either Tories or Labour could rule with the help of the Lib Dems. But it could mean one where one pary would need the Celtic nationalists as well - only relevant for Labour as I can't see SNP and Plaid Cymru siding with the Tories. Then there are the DUP from Ulster who are against everybody (Sinn Fein don't show up to Westminster).
A very interesting election is in the offing and I wish there were the constituency polls and a Nate to analyse them. Even less likelihood of any meaningful data from Iran, Venezuela or S Africa.
A pack of pork scratchings to those who make it to the end of this post.
Chris
Sarah run for the Don Young's seat as a launching pad to the 2012 presidential nomination?
Name the last VERY inexperienced House of Rep member turned presidential primary candidate who was a major contender?
I thought so. Until 2012, Palin will stay as Governor if she can't be Senator.
It seems likely that both Ted Stevens and Young will lose their offices to criminal investigations and convictions. It's easy to see why 538 would step up and assume Palin will take the latter posting if Steven's (presumptive) defeat prevents her from taking the former.
However - Palin herself merits investigation and may be more likely to replace these men in the docket than in the Senate.
Her ties to Veco seem as peculiar as Stevens'. And the nation is still waiting to find out who paid for her house and how much overlap those contractors have with the contractors to whom she gave the work on her $12.5 million Wasilla sports center... after the house was done.
hey don't knock the Rams. At least they've won the Super Bowl in the last century. :)
I cant decide if its better to have Palin in the Senate where the repubs can see what a total fool she is on a daily basis, or to have her as Gov where they can track her stupid moves there. Although I understand those who would like nothing better than for her to run against Obama in '12 (a SURE loss!) I for one dont want to listen to the stupid cow for 4 more years!
fileyna--what happens when I try to get my tax info together
The Winch asked who was the last inexperienced House member to get a primary nomination? Abe Lincoln, although he wasn't even in the House at the time- he was a complete no body. Of course there is a Pacific Ocean of difference between Lincoln and Palin and the times and methods of nominations were completely different than today. But he was probably the single most inexperienced President we've ever had. Goes to show you that experience is completely overrated. That why the debate about who had more experience, Obama or Palin, was a complete waste of time. Obama has intangibles that Palin clearly doesn't have. Intelligence and temperment are far more important for the job, IMHO.
I doubt Palin has any interest in the Senate. It doesn't seem like her scene, what with the endless speechifying and half the membership being twice her age. Maybe the House, but I'd bet she doesn't run for anything except re-election as Governor.
Maybe it's just me, but isn't "less than even money" an ambiguous term? When a horse pays less than even money, say 3/5, it's an overwhelming favorite.
kilroy's situation is really better than you suggest. Two years ago the provisional count in the same district netted her more than 2000 at the margin. Barring some weird change, she should easily win this. That requires countering R lawyers who are desperately trying to interfere with the provisional count, for obvious reasons. Kilroy is asking for $. It's an excellent investment, because in this district she should be able to keep that seat for a long time. head for ActBlue to help NOW./mbw
Regarding inexperienced congressmen running for President, nobody mentioned William Jennings Bryan, who served two terms in Congress (1891-95) from Nebraska, ran for the Senate and lost (1894) and at age 36, became the Democratic presidential nominee in 1896.
He ran as a populist, having beaten the eastern party establishment, winning over the convention through his famous "Cross of Gold" speech. McKinley beat him that year and again in 1900. He was also nominated and lost in 1908.
He was Secretary of State under Wilson and ended his days fighting the teaching of evolution, serving as the chief prosecutor in the Scopes "monkey trial." He died a few days after the trial.
"In California's 4th House district, Republican Tom McClintock leads Democrat Charlie Brown by 622 votes with roughly 25,000 absentee and provisional ballots left to be counted. Both men are attending freshman House member orientation."
1. The preprinted t-shirts and hats which say, "Super Bowl Champions" of the teams which lost;
2. The prewritten speeches of actors and actresses nominated for an Academy Award who lost;
3. The four days of Freshman Orientation for the guy who loses the recount and never gets to be a Congressman.
Huh, Kilroy is really that close?
I should call my friend; he's her communications director. Poor guy probably hasn't slept in two weeks.
@judas_priest:
If that religious goober Wm Jennings Bryant were alive today, he'd be on prozac and be named Mike Hucakbee.
my question is without the Senate path towards a 2012 rekindling of the great Sarah debauchery what else will allow her to keep her perch in the party?
Palin doesn't need to be in the Senate to maintain a high profile. In fact, being associated with DC is ususally a negative for a presidential candidate. She can "write" a book, do Sunday morning news shows, travel abroad, do speaking engagements, raise funds for Republicans (and political favors later for herself), etc. She's much better positioned for a presidential run than just about anyone else. She just needs to maintain her fervent base and become more knowledgeabe on foreign affairs and national issues. If the environment looks right in 2012, she could run again. More likely, she waits until 2016 when every Republican with presidential aspirations will run. I'm confident we have not seen the last of her and I would not misunderestimate her.
Nate- nice to see you on Maddow with Arianna. A little critique: try saying, "Thank You, Arianna." "Thank You, Rachel." instead of your Chicagoan "Yeah, thanks." Aside from that, the UberNerd Chic is great. Manners count, though.
Believe it or not, you are now part of the political media game. People respect the hell out of you. This is great news for everyone. While I am not suggesting you start to act like a politician, I would suggest that you pay attention to the delivery of the message. This doesn't mean a $400 haircut and makeover, or going to Charm School, it just means mind your p's and q's (remember the principle in Ferris Bueller). Many in the pre-Web generation pay attention to that stuff.
I say this only because you have powerful information in your statistics driven mind- I think you said it yourself- 538.com was the reason no one gave Drudge much credence this year (hallaluah). We really need to keep converting people to the reality-based perspective, and you are central to that process. Every time I come this site, it just tickles me- and I am far from a statistics geek, yet this entire ride is making me one: I did a fair amount of cut'n paste from here and Media Matters onto Fox and other less-than-truth oriented outlets (to be, ahem, polite) to counteract the RWSM (Right Wing Smear Machine).
I think we are seeing the wedding of statistics to message in our Web 2.5 world. The "p's and q's" are more a message issue, yet they are equally important, not fluff.
Gonna plug again for http://ourkarlrove.com and http://betweenthecolumns.com
Thank you, thank you very much, Nate.
Does anyone have any idea why Alaska counts some of the ballots and then waits a day or two before resuming the counting?
The concept of counting absentee ballots doesn't seem to be that complicated. Why do they have to take a day or two off after every day they count?
@ silent cal: ..."half the [Senate] membership being twice her age..."
But Cal... she does really really well with men twice her age.
It's Not Sexist To Ask...
Palin's High Heels Enchant Cruising Republican Pundits
Both McClintock and Brown are attending the freshman House orientation? Wow, that's got to be awkward. Hopefully they're not seated next to each other.
Begich's lead up to 2374...it's over.
Check the numbers again. Belich is 2374 votes ahead of Stevens. That is also greater than the .5% line for an automatic state funded recount.
Election Over.
http://elect.alaska.net/data/results.htm
http://www.elections.alaska.gov/08general/data/results.htm
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