Suppose that Barack Obama were to concede Pennsylvania's electoral votes. Literally, concede them. Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs game. How often would he still win the election?
...89.0% of the time, according to our most recent run of simulations, along with another 2.4% of outcomes that ended in ties. This is because in the vast majority of our simulations, Obama either:
a) was winning at least 291 electoral votes, meaning that he could drop Pennsylvania's 21 and still be over 270, and/or
b) was winning at least 270 electoral votes, while already being projected to lose Pennsylvania in the first place.
(a) was much, much more common than (b), obviously.
11.01.2008
Pennsylvania Sanity Check
@ 11:02 AM
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first
First?!
HAHA
I don't know. I'm still a bit worried about Pennsylvania. I've seen John Kerry and Al Gore grab defeat from the jaws of victory in the past two elections. Rasmussen puts Obama only ahead by 4 points, and the Morning Call tracker has dropped two points in the last day.
Is McCain actually closing there?
that was my first post ever, i think i will retire now.
In my mind, I get it.
In my heart, I worry.
Reading today's NYTimes, I see I am not alone.
Living in a red state makes it tough to really believe, no matter how hard I work.
Thanks for all you do.
Robin
But he's not going to lose PA.
I buried Paul
lol jeff
all of the philadelphia metro was partying last night and wednesday night. that may have changed the poll sampling a bit...
They should send Hillary out to Western PA and do some shots of whiskey with the blue collar folks.
djbwillthinkforfood.blogspot.com
I like the thought that what he's fighting for at this point is not a win but a landslide/mandate. I think that a landslide would work to lift down-ticket races, of course, but it also would be an event that would help many folks heal mentally. I wouldn't underestimate the election as a national-psychological event.
Nate is like a pint of Hagen Daz--so comforting.
And yet, speaking from the ground in PA this morning: I don't even think an Obama concession could keep his supporters from showing up on Tuesday.
Nate-
I need something to worry about! It motivates me!
SHHHH!
I still think Bam-Bam's gonna win PA, but I think that it's going to be much closer than people think. Maybe like a 5 or 6 point victory instead of a comfortable 9 or 10 point victory.
That state is going to give me an ulcer on election night.
I'm increasingly interested in PA. Rasmussen's spanking new poll of the state shows it as +4, which makes it the third time this week that a pollster has found the state at that spread (down from double digits). Also, a poster at Kos is saying that SUSA's next poll of the state (which is being released on Monday) had McCain +3 in its first day of polling.
Word Verification: macein (that lurching monster we saw at the 3rd debate)
I'm wondering what the comparison is between polls at this time of the election in 2000 and now.
I live in Pittsburgh and have been doing GOTV work for Obama. In my neighborhood alone we have over 300 volunteers working this weekend out of just one office.
So even if McCain gets crazy turnout in the rural areas the areas with the highest concentration of people -- Pittsburgh and Philly-- will give it to Obama handily.
It's not the electoral votes per se. If Obama loses Pennsylvania, it means there has either been a huge shift in voter preferences or a huge trend our polls and models have failed to identify. While it's true Obama could concede PA and still be the likely winner, and realistic scenario where McCain wins is very bad news for Obama on election day.
Must be an awesome time to be a black Phillies fan these days, I bet.
My time in the sun was 1996 - I had just turned 18, Bill Clinton won reelection and the Green Bay Packers won the Super Bowl.
While I agree with Nate that a PA win doesn't mean McCain wins in a world where PA by itself but If McCain wins PA that probably means he's won OH, IN, and MO for sure and possibly that means he has made up ground nationally which could put FL and NC out of reach... then it comes down to VA and NV
Are we worried about Obama's aunt story????!
lmfao.
Ughhhh.
Whenever one or two "unfavorable" poll results come out, people begin panicking. It's pathetic, and I'm getting tired of it. Just a couple days ago, trolls like Michael were getting you guys all in a wad when rasmussen showed +3!!!11oneone
Now the national polls are going in obama's direction.
If you want to believe that pennsylvania will go to McCain in an Obama + 7 national environment, that's your choice. But losing sleep and getting nervous isn't going to accomplish anything. It WON'T happen.
Furthermore, if it DOES, according to nate we still have an 89% chance of winning.
Now chillax people.
He's not going to lose Pennsylvania. I'm in SW PA (you know the racist, redneck part) and folks may not be saying it publicly, but they're going to vote for Obama. They're hurting financially, and this time they are not going to vote against their interests.
Thank God (and Nate, the god of all things polling) for this post!!!
NEW RULE: If you're freaking about PA, get off the damn message board and make at least 20 calls to PA. Wringing your hands and curling up in a corner (with keyboard in your lap) does nothing. Do something positive and make some calls.
The question is why is tightening the race in PA?.
I don´t see McCain winning PA but +14 to +4 in two days is much.
McCain Surge !!!
Article today in WaPo about how all of the McCain campaign's enthusiasm is being concentrated in PA.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/10/31/AR2008103104022.html?hpid=topnews
Whatever GOTV effort McCain has seems to have is going to PA. That is why that SC woman would drive all the way to PA instead of going across the border to NC or GA is beyond me. This is definitely their last stand; it will be a "moral" victory if they win even if they lose the election. Palin -- bless her heart -- will be celebrated for turning PA and would become THE force of the Republican Party.
Well, the trouble I have with that is, if McCain were to win Pennsylvania, it's likely not something that would happen in a bubble. If he wins PA, I'd expect he would have enough general support to pick up states like NC, IN, MO, OH, etc.
That said, I'm about to go leave my house in Maryland to go volunteer full-time for Obama in Pennsylvania through tuesday. :)
BTW, PA polls close at 9 ET 8 CT
Fuck off newsinoh - this is a non-partisan site.
go to electoral-vote.com, they have a this day in 2004 button on the right.
2004: KErry 298, Bush 231
Today: Obama 353, Gramps 285
So does that mean the same thing as:
Even if McCain wins PA, he still only has an 11% chance of winning the Presidency?
I agree with the fact that if Pennsylvania goes to McCain, it means that there's been some fundamental shift in his favor nationwide. Which means OH, FL, IN, MO, and NC are gone.
Obama would have to carry Colorado, Nevada and Virginia at that point, and that would give him 270 EV's.
I realize that is the worst case scenario, but it's still in the realm of possibility. I'm not declaring victory until the networks do on Tuesday night, and neither should any of you.
Sorry- that's 11% to win or tie, 8.6% to win?
go to electoral-vote.com, they have a this day in 2004 button on the right.
2004: KErry 298, Bush 231
Today: Obama 353, Gramps 185
185 for gramps, oops.
With large ad buys by the McCain campaign in Pennsylvania, wouldn't we expect it to close somewhat more rapidly than the electorate as a whole (assuming the expected overall closure does occur)? And with only two of the recent polls showing Obama support below 50% (Strategic Vision and Mason-Dixon) even a disproportionate break of undecides to the McCain camp doesn't appear to be grounds for serious worry. Ambinder notes that Obama has no planned campaign stops in PA. That seems to suggest that the Obama camp isn't worried.
assmole ii
And what did I say that was partisan???
The problem is that it's becoming the endless loop of neurosis site with the same series of posts unending . . .
Mikeyrad and Mr. Incognito are both right. Obama is not going to lose PA. But if he does, then all of our other calculations are full of shit. PA is a good index if you're a chronic worrier. If he loses PA, dust off your passport, because Obama's going to lose every other state that he might lose. If he wins PA and at least one of VA, NC, or FL, then let the party begin. And you won't even have to wait for the next time zone's results.
The Rasmussen PA Poll has really fishy internals.
10/30 (10/27)
Obama: 51 (53)
McCain: 47 (46)
Whites:
Obama: 46 (46)
McCain: 52 (53)
Blacks:
Obama: 80 (93)
McCain: 20 (5)
My real question here is the extent to which flipping PA at this point would be a sign of a systematic sea change in support for Obama. I know you account for this to a certain extent in your model, but things are different enough with this election that some of your assumptions boil down to, at best, educated guesses.
In a way, your positing theory with confirmatory data. The actual results will provide the real proof or counter proof of your theory.
Pennsylvania has benn more BLUE/Dem than the popular national vote every election since 1948.
Think about that for a second.
This does not bode well at all for McCain.
endedam. It is like a firewall. It is Colorado, Nevada and Virginia for Obama. For McCain, it is falling back on Cindy's money.
For those of us that don't follow baseball, what exactly does "Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game" mean?
Two polls today show Obama at 51% and 52%. Any gains that McCain has made have not been from Obama. McCain has moved up slightly but he has been campaigning non-stop for a few weeks. It would be hard to imagine that Obama would lose Penn. while winning the country by 5. State polls are notorious for being fickle so I am not that worried.
Remember, we had the Al Qaeda/Bin Laden tape in 2004 on Friday that moved polls.
Hope I' don't post twice but the blogger said there was a conflict in my post so I'm retyping it, ugh.
I'm guessing that if PA actually goes to McCain and isn't simply surrendered, that it would take others with it. Like do most of those simulations assume that when PA fails, VA still wins?
The post makes me feel better but still this Jersey gal is voting 11/4am and taking some friends to the PA suburbs for our GOTV effort just to insure we seal the deal.
Dirty trcks make me nervous:
http://www.cbsnews.com/blogs/2008/10/28/politics/horserace/entry4554416.shtml?CMP=OTC-RSSFeed&source=RSS&attr=Horserace_4554416
Where is PA John??
Obama knows what he`s doing, if they don`t go back to Pa. they must feel pretty comfortable they will win it.
They probably don`t care if it`s 1% or 10%.
Also if Pa. is the only Kerry state McCain wins it will prove what Murtha aid about them being racist.
By the way the final RCP average in 2004 on PA was Kerry 0.6% so take that average and add 1%.
That rasmussen poll was suspect, he has 20% od AA voting for McCain and also has the young voters going heavily for McCain.
My wife is a doctor, she has ALL her AA patients schedules on election day cancel so they can stand in line to vote. She has never had a SINGLE patient cancel for election day in her 30 year career.
Obama says he didn't know aunts illegal status
Before folks start putting too much confidence in the ras poll, check the internals, only 80% AA support for Obama? get real. also remember ras has a repub lean, so what you are seeing with his polls are basically Obamas bottom line which is still above 50%. Don't lose sight of reality here.
and another thing why is th efuck does the word verification have to have those screwed up letteras that some of us can barely determine what the hell they are supposed to be?
Can we please talk about something new... I'm so tired of PA. Any suggestions anyone?
Ok, while we're on the subject of worrying, here is another nightmare and conspiracy scenario of how the election could be stolen, for those of us who believe in this kind of things.
The margin of victory in the actually cast votes will be large enough that run-of the mill elextion stealing like in Florida or Ohio will not throw the election to McCain. Only a massive operation hacking into lots of vote-counting and tabulating equipment will do. Many of them run some version of Windows, which is hackable for professionals.
Who would have the motive and ability to pull this off? Certainly not your rabid campaign operative, but very likely our intelligence agencies. After all, a number of their agents will have to fear that they're going to jail or worse if all of their misdeeds in the last four years are publically exposed by a Democratic administration. So self-preservation requires them to manipulate the elections - something they're quite used to doing in other countries...
Nate is truly becoming our therapist or Alcoholics Anonymous sponsor. When it comes to PA, I think the concerned people are speaking from a gut feeling that there is a lot of both latent and blatant racism there. In fact, the very blue Northeast, including liberal Boston and Connecticut, where I've lived, often have entrenched caste-like views of race that you don't see in newer cultures like those in Arizona and Montana. (San Francisco, another place I've lived in, is more similar to the Northeast than to the Mountain West, especially among its working classes.)
My wife is a doctor, she has had ALL her AA patients scheduled on election day cancel so they can stand in line to vote. She has never had a SINGLE patient cancel for election day in her 30 year career.
Here's absolute best case scenario for McCain. I consider McCain's odds to win to be about 5000 to 1. This is a 10000 to 1 shot, so about 1/2 of his chance.
McCain flips Pennsylvania in somewhat of a national sea change where if the elction were held 100% on November 4th, he'd win the popular vote by 1 or 2% or be tied. Because of early voting, Colorado and Nevada are too far gone for him to win. This puts Obama's # at 257. North Carolina, Ohio, and florida barely fall into the McCain column. Early voting causes them to be very hard to call, but by late in the night, they fall to McCain. It all comes down to Virginia. Obama has as big a lead there as he does in any potential tipping point. Add that to the fact that there has been some early voting, though less than most early voting states, due to special rules. Virginia gives the PResidency to the winner. Again, I suggest the odds of this are about 10,000 to 1, but I'd also say it's about 50% of McCain's chance to win.
Regarding the obama aunt thing - No, it shouldnt matter. McCain and the RNC doesnt really want to touch it (I cant blame them) and its not the kind of thing that moves votes.
I have a serious question - how long is it going to take until all the votes will be counted?
It seems pretty clear that the polling places are not going to be ready for Tuesday and that they'll have to stay open long past their scheduled closing times.
"Can we please talk about something new... I'm so tired of PA. Any suggestions anyone?"
___________________________________
Who should Obama appoint to his cabinet?
Barche. What I do every time I see a close up of McCain in high def. Barche!
Christ, thank you! I keep getting in fights with my roommate because he says PA's going to be scaaaaaary close (for a bunch of reasons that don't make sense - why would the polls here LIE?) but one of my points is that it just. doesn't. matter!
Now I live in PA and of course I'm volunteering today and Tuesday to GOTV, because I would LOVE if we went blue (which we will!!), but I think his alarmist and pessimistic arguments are useless. Thank you for being the sane one. Again.
"I think that AA voters will stay engaged as long as the democratic party governs well."
It may actually take a little less than that. Obama will be a AA hero for a generation as long as he stays reasonably scandal free.
After winning, he will have more latitude to go into the south and campaign hard for reps/sens in 2012. Dixiecrates will either start paying attention to AAs or they will deliver someone else in the primaries. Either way, it will be a win for neglected masses. Even poor whites will come on board (WV) if played prudently.
RAS is a hack if his internals have 80% AA for Obama in the latest poll doen from 93% in the last poll. Thye thing is as a hach he knows that not a single news agaency will mention the internals that are a farce. RAS=Repub shrill!
just in:
obama's cat is illegal
"The Rasmussen PA Poll has really fishy internals.
10/30 (10/27)
Obama: 51 (53)
McCain: 47 (46)
Whites:
Obama: 46 (46)
McCain: 52 (53)
Blacks:
Obama: 80 (93)
McCain: 20 (5)"
I read on AA blogs, they're telling everyone to lie to pollsters.
I'm making this up.
McCain is essentially wasting his time in PA. The best he can do is close the gap a bit. He's counting on bigotry and ignorance in the western part of the state but, overall, the economy and the destructive Bush presidency trumps all. It's not a slam dunk for Obama because socio-cultural bad habits (racism, fear of the "other", etc.) are difficult to eradicate. I never thought Obama would win PA by double digits, 3-5 points is more like it. If Obama were white, or white Hispanic, in this horrid environment - a 10 point win.
I just love how dairies with rumors about SUSA results to be released on Monday already have McCain at 3+ in PA. Where are these rumors coming from? The only pollster that tells people what is going on--that I know of--is PPP and he is in the field a few days. SUSA I thought did one day polls? At most 2. So how can they release on Monday a poll that they already have results for? Not even rational fear mongering.
Also regarding the ground game---if that is what it comes to in PA, Obama will kick McCain's behind. PA has been overtaken by Obama's ground game for months. Not worried there.
Mattison said...
For those of us that don't follow baseball, what exactly does "Throw 'em back, like a Chase Utley home run at a Cubs' game" mean?
Fans in the bleachers at Wrigley Field, home of the Chicago Cubs, throw back a Homerun hit by the opposing team. Everyone expects it. If the fan doesn't throw it back, they get booed. Fans love catching a ball hit into the stands. It's exciting. To throw a ball back onto the field is basically saying, you know what i don't even want the thing if it was hit from my opponent. They just hit a homerun on my team. i'm not happy about it and I don't even want the ball. So just saying, you know what I can have Pennsylvania, I don't even want it. Nate's implying, Pennsylvania is a separate animal. There's an 89.1% chance Obama ends up with 291 electoral votes or more, in which case Pennsylvania is unnecessary.
Of course Obama didn't know his aunt's illegal status. Who would?? That isn't something you ask your relatives, "Excuse me, I'm coming over for dinner next week and just want to make sure you got all your immigration papers together so I can take a look at them." Unless they lived in your home or you were personally involved in helping them get their visa, you wouldn't know and they wouldn't tell you.
November cat Surprise is GOOD NEWS !! FOR MCCAIN !!!
I have heard the AA are lying to pollsters twice. Once at work, and once here. The argument is, they want a surprising landslide.
20% of AA for mccain?
forget this poll people.
i pointed ut before that a week ago an internal that showed mccain out polling obama on economy taxes and ss also had those same people giving bush a 34% approval..
who are rasmussen polling?
It will be depressing if McCain were to win PA. I live there and I'm getting 5 robocalls plus a mailbox full of crap every day. I'm sick of it.
jen,
I'm betting there will be some surprises in O's cabinet because his universe of possible appointees is going to be the universe of experts as opposed to the universe of Democratic politicos. At this point, I can't even hazard a guess as to who he'll come up with but I'm sure I'll be googling a lot when the names come out
lat--
I agree, if you have a result that would make a lot of news, there's no reason whatsoever to sit on it for two days. I can't imagine polls wouldn't be released within 24 hours of being completed, especially right now.
Don't we need a conditional probability here? What's the probability of Obama winning the election GIVEN that he loses Pennsylvania? In other words, how many simulations have Obama losing Pennsylvania, and in how many of those does he win the election? I imagine that percentage is much lower than 89%.
Obama's cat is an illegal---well that changes everything.
"i pointed ut before that a week ago an internal that showed mccain out polling obama on economy taxes and ss also had those same people giving bush a 34% approval..
who are rasmussen polling?"
BINOs = Black in name only
I am actually surpried Obama did not know about his aunt's status. If you were her, wouldn't you ask your law prof nephew for help?
adam said:
"I've seen John Kerry and Al Gore grab defeat from the jaws of victory in the past two elections."
Wow, this baffles me. BHO is a far stronger candidate than either of those two. BHO has a large, electorally efficient lead in an extremely stable race. BHO has the largest GOTV organization in history.
Really, this is nothing like 2004 or 2000.
rachel,
I'm in OH and I hear you! It's been an insane election cycle, hasn't it?? I know we're all election fatigued with the onslaught of ads, calls, mailers, door hangers . . .
Maybe I didn't understand what Nate's saying, but I don't find it that reassuring.
His scenario analysis states that Obama only has a 6.45% chance of winning the election if he loses OH/FL/PA, and if he loses PA isn't it rather likely that he will have lost Florida and Ohio as well?
This may be a bit too pessimistic, as Obama seems to be closing very strongly in the west, making it possible he could win with IA, NM, CO, NV and VA even if he drops all the "big 3". But it would be scarily close, that's for sure.
McCain does seem to be closing a bit in PA, but it's mainly him picking up 3rd party and undecided voters. So long as Obama stays above 50% there he should be ok.
FReeptard Quote of the Day:
Here’s what happens Tuesday, McCain wins both popular AND electoral... Otherwise Obama Osama wouldn’t still be campaigning in all those “battle ground” states that are SUPPOSEDLY locked up by the PROPAGANDA POLLSTERS by some 10% or more.
Ever stop to think about it?
Apart from wondering how these eejits manage to shave in the morning without slitting their throats, that's exactly what I've been thinking. How come Obama is campaigning in Red States he's leading in, when he should be campaigning in Hawaii and Vermont?
I've been saying this for weeks!
Obama's "firewall" is Kerry + CO + IA + VA + NV + NM = 291.
Subtract PA and you have 270. So, since Obama is winning all the Kerry states (including NH easily) and IA and NM are already his, and CO is moving into his column by a wide margin, then VA and NV become the keys to the election.
If he wins both, then OH, FL, NC, MO, IN and every other state become irrelevant!
62 hours and counting til election day!
5% is not close. Close is what happened to me when I stood for election for my local council in the UK in 2000. No polls of course, but internal canvass numbers suggested neck and neck. First count: dead heat. Second count (remember all manual counting in the UK): one miscounted bundle of 26 instead of 25, one extra vote for me. Then of the disputed ballots, 5 were okayed for me. I won by 6.
By that stage I could hardly stand up, never mind think coherently.
I have been re-elected (much more comfortably) 3 times since then.
What did I learn? Go GOTV.
Oh, and here in the UK elections are administered by council employees, not partisan politicians. If I had been standing in Florida, I would have had no chance. Hope Obama does something to take the partisanship out of your election administration. It would be really good for democracy.
wv dowsein - famous saying of Homer Simpson!
I know you guys on the left are against producing our own oil here at home, so you don't say "Drill baby, drill!"
So what is it that you say at your rallies? "Tax baby, tax?"
Just curious.
Well, Bush and Kerry both went pretty hardcore on PA in 2004, and the polls were actually quite close the whole campaign. Kerry eventually won it, as we know. Today, aside from a select few, most of the PA polls I've seen are 10+ point leads for Obama. Regardless if McCain puts every last dollar he has in the state, I don't think he'll pull it off.
Speaking of strange polls, how about Montana, North Dakota, Arizona, and Georgia? Man, I don't know how reliable those recent polls are, but if Obama pulls off any of those states, I will run outside in my underpants and do backflips.
Note: I live in upstate NY. It's cold at night in November.
I'm going to send faux commie NoVa a thank you card when this is all over.
What are wedrinking on election night? A nice single malt to sip until I pop the champagne.
I have heard the AA are lying to pollsters twice. Once at work, and once here. The argument is, they want a surprising landslide.
If true, that is the most brilliantly devious thing I have ever heard. Talk about leading McSame around by the nose with a false sense of security!
Let's go over Pennsylvania historically for a matter of context:
Pennsylvania has voted more BLUE/Dem than the national popular vote in every election since 1948.
1984
PA 7.3% Red 53.3-46
USA 18.2% Red
1988
PA 2.3% Red 50.7-48.4
USA 7.7% Red
1992
PA 9.0% Blue 45.15%
USA 5.3% Blue
1996
PA 9.2% Blue 49.17%
USA 8.5% Blue
2000
PA 4.2% Blue 50.6-46.4
USA 0.5% Blue
2004
PA 2.5% Blue 50.9-48.4
USA 2.5% Red
2008
PA 8.5% Blue 51.8-43.3
USA 6.3% Blue
according to 36 polls over 5 weeks
Analyze as you like. Notice two things. #1, in the last 6 elections, and we can probably go back further and see the same trend, Pennsylvania has always been bluer than the rest of the country. This is showing up in the polls this cycle as well. No reason to believe that's changed. #2 For various reasons, no Democrat has received more than 50.9% in Pennsylvania. No Democrat has had more than 50% of the national vote for a long time as well.
In Chuck Todd we trust.
Here, the electoral messiah of NBC goes through all 50 states and says what he's going to be watching for on election night. I highly recommend reading it.
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/27478547/page/2/
sorry to change the subject, but regarding Obama's Aunt's immigration status. I was scared about that at first. Now I'm angry. The real story is the Bush administration official who unscrupulously leaked the information.
It's not going to make a difference. Obama will win.
Porridge-gun, LOL!
What the Freepers are wondering is "why is Obama campaigning in the battleground states if the polls are right and he's way ahead?"
(I translated Freep-tard into English for ease of understanding).
Answer: "Because they are 'battleground states' you pack of imbeciles!"
As you say should he campaign in Vermont instead?
Guys, stop fucking blogging. Go out and volunteer for Obama. I can't, because I live in communist China.
Most news organizations consider general accuracy a good thing, except when the plain truth is that there's no news. When that happens, they look for angles, however far-fetched, so that we keep tuning in, logging on, turning the pages (oops, I'm showing my age on that one). Tragic though they are, small building fires don't make the local news except when there's nothing else going on.
News outlet with partisan leanings also have an interest in making news out of nothing - to keep the audience on its toes or to keep it from giving up, depending on the side.
So it's telling and a relief to see a news outlet that only takes pride in getting it right telling us that everything's been essentially unchanged, horserace wise, for weeks. Obama's projected margin of victory may change daily, or hourly, but by any standards of empirical evidence available, the outcome itself hasn't been in doubt for some time. Maybe he'll squeak by with under 300 EV's, and maybe he'll push 400 -- a difference that won't only have symbolic implications (although Bush claimed sweeping mandates with a 4EV margin). But come on already.
DarÃo said...
The question is why is tightening the race in PA?.
I don´t see McCain winning PA but +14 to +4 in two days is much
I'm back! Dario, you can't compare datapoints from different pollsters. What moved is the tracking poll went from O+13 to O+8. Rasmussen went from O+7 to O+4.
Can anyone send me some tranquilizers?
--"I am actually surpried Obama did not know about his aunt's status. If you were her, wouldn't you ask your law prof nephew for help?"
NO. Because you put them in a situation where it seems they pulled strings for you and as a US Senator and Pres candidate it looks really bad.
noel s,
It's more likely that O will get Ga than Mc get Pa.
Hope it's unseasonably warm in NY Tues night!
I doubt if the issue with Obama's aunt is going to hurt him. Most people have already made up their minds, and they aren't going to be bothered by Obama's aunt - whom he barely knows - when they're worried sick about the economy.
Big Lawyer, Community Organizer Cannot Even Help Pitiful Relative
What makes us think he can help us?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/obama_aunt;_ylt=Akg3ol7MIwTtKRzYCFH7D8ASq594
He can wax poetically about “Auntie Zeituni” in his memoirs, but somehow her plight escaped his notice when she needed him most.
According to the AP, “The campaign said he last heard from her about two years ago when she called saying she was in Boston, but he did not see her there.” Consider how many times since then he has been in Boston, raising money and “palling around” with his buddy, Governor Deval Patrick. He seems to have taken no notice of this poor woman as he pursued his personal ambition.
Can we the people expect better of him?
I suppose Socialism does not begin at home!
As an ironic footnote, Auntie Zeituni has made at least $260 of illegal contributions to the Obama campaign. Pocket change he can believe in!
Word Verification: yokenizz -- Obama is hoping his are in Kenya, far, far away!
Just noticed - everyone counting the hours until election day and/or polls closing are missing that we have an EXTRA hour tonight because of the return to standard time.
Even CNN's countdown clock is wrong. I wonder when they are going to figure it out...
Pa john,
Disregard Rasmuseen PA. If you do the math cutting AA support by 15% and they are 20% PA voters (2004 models) comes out to 3 pts. The poll hasn;t moved but Ras needed to promote the RepubliCon narrative. Ras has lost what little credibility he has left.
Do any pollsters forecast # of votes and not just %'s?
I am just sooo sooo certain that McCain will miss trend-projected turnout #'s.
/me thinks 538 readers should drink a bit of Al Giordano's Anti-Chicken Little Juice and stop worrying about sensationalist stuff they read on Drudge.
Or, in fact, don't. The more worried people Obama gets, the more people who will actually go vote instead of staying home because it's in the pocket.
The more I think about it, these PA polls ARE indeed connected to the Phillies winning the World Series. If I'm a Philly sports fan and I've just watched one of my teams win it's first championship in 28 years, the economy and presidential politics are pretty much on the backburner for the next couple of days.
Anyone buy that?
Will there ever be another all white male ticket running for the WH?
WV = shambroo
@Derek
"BTW, PA polls close at 9 ET 8 CT"
Fact check:
False!!!
Pennsylvania Polls close at 8:00 PM ET
WV: ullentl -- howling good soup!
Let Grumpy and Bible Spice waste their time in Pennsylvania. Tick tock, tick tock.
Nate: Any suggestions or recommendations on how best to follow the events on Tuesday night? Right now, I plan on watching MSNBC while using the cnn.com Electoral Map Calculator and turning states blue (or red) as each are called. What might you recommend?
Various states polls close at different times. Virginia and Indiana both close at 7 EST, Ohio at 730 EST and Pennsylvania, Florida and Missouri at 8 EST. Here's what I will be watching for: If a couple (or more) of these contested states are called early for Obama, it might be a very early night (and that would be a good thing).
subterranean,
Voter turnout is going to be fascinating. The number of stories of people not voting due to long lines in the past is legion, yet this time there are people waiting hour upon hour to vote.
Plenty of stories about people who hadn't ever voted or hadn't voted in years actually turning out this year.
It's all anecdotal right now but, damn, there's a lot of it.
That could end up being the really big story
>> Shap said...
>> So does that mean the same thing as:
>> Even if McCain wins PA, he still only has an 11% chance of winning the Presidency?
No closer to 8.6%, as it is believed that Obama would become President under these rules. But that isn't a lock because:
1) the exact composition of the Congress is not yet known (though the Senate part of it is).
2) it's a messy 'people' thing, and McCain has a lot of friends in Washington *shrug*
Note that it's conceivable in this case to have an "Old Guy Ticket" of McCain/Biden or a "Double History Ticket" of Obama/Palin. The former is definitely workable I would think (because they are working friends and are ideologically fairly close). The later I struggle to imagine how it would work. Outside of just stuffing Palin in a closet for 4 years and watching very closely for assassination from within the country ... because she's just there for "backup" and Senate ties.
I'm not sure if they could horse trade to have Obama/McCain or McCain/Obama. That would be intriguing. Although further ideologically apart it might be workable, and they bring complementary strengths in much the same way that Obama/Biden do. It would definitely be a tension filled 4 years.
P.S. The cloud that Bush's first term was under because of the election would be nothing compared to this one.
Has poll considered a McCain revulsion factor among Republicans who intend to vote? They would vote down ticket and finesse the Presidential choice or go for Obama.
Has any poll covered Republicans who will not vote because like many Republican moderate leaders they do not like McCain Palin?
I feel this could be the great story of this election but I have no idea if it has been answered already in poll data..
NATE:
Chuck Todd said Nevada is going down to the wire.
Do you see it that way?
Isn't Nevada key to Obama winning without Penn?
Obama can lose Pa if he flips NC.
obama's cat is illegal
I just read on Atlas Shrugged a 10-page post in red font demanding the Obama campaign to post Snowball's papers online.
Sanity check
Sorry if this has been posted but I was thinking about this prior to this post.
Lets follow the original stategy of Kerry + IA + NM + CO. Most of those assumptions appear to be solid. If O were to loose PA. The following would suffice to make up the difference.
O needs win either OH of FL
Currently he has a statistically significant lead in OH and a marginal lead in FL
O needs win either GA or NC and one of the following
The other (NC or GA)
VA, IN, MO, ND, MT, NV, or AZ
O has a marginal lead in NC and M has a marginal lead in GA (but I believe GA AA votes are severly discounted and have had this as my surprise upset for about three weeks)
O has a statistally significant lead in NV and VA
It is tied in IN, and MO
M has a marginal lead in ND, MT and AZ
If O were to loose FL, OH, GA and NC. He could still win with a combination of two or three in VA, IA, MO, AZ, ND, MT, and NV
Lots of ways without PA.
McCain needs to win without exception OH, and FL. He would need to win all but one of GA, NC, VA, IA, MO, AZ, NV, MT, ND.
Not likely
Miast. A Michigan Taoist?
Herunar said...
"Guys, stop fucking blogging. Go out and volunteer for Obama. I can't, because I live in communist China."
Actually, you can, especially if you're an American. I used to live in Beijing, and I know there are thousands of expat Americans in China. It may be too late for you to get them to vote by absentee ballot, but you can organize them to call home and make sure their family and friends vote (a la Sarah Silverman and the Jewish grandparents campaign) and to send money to the campaign.
http://my.barackobama.com/page/s/aafosignup
Very curious internals accompany this polling sample. Only 75% of Dems support their own nominee, yet he still gets 51% of the vote?
http://democratictribune.com/electionpolls11011x.html
Barack and the DNC haven't been campaigning in rural western Pennsylvania whatsoever. You'd never know it was an election year for lack of Blue banners and ground work.
But it's a heavily Blue region and hasn't swung for decades regardless as to what pundits claim on national televsion.
The Red party presents Pennsylvania as an uneducated evil hick state within reach, and national pundits agree--except for our Nate, who knows better and rates the state with a 99% Blue favor.
Way to go, Barack and Nate! Thanks for the compliment and good work, well done.
"MrIncognito said...
It's not the electoral votes per se. If Obama loses Pennsylvania, it means there has either been a huge shift in voter preferences or a huge trend our polls and models have failed to identify.
While it's true Obama could concede PA and still be the likely winner, and realistic scenario where McCain wins is very bad news for Obama on election day."
No, it isn't. What it would mean is that McCain has been putting all his efforts into winning that one state and Ohio, and ignoring Florida, and North Carolina and Missouri and Indiana and Montana, and Georgia. McCain has to hope he pulls through in all those red states just on general momentum.
But, as Al Gore and John Kerry found out, targeting one state intensively, while ignoring every other one, means you're toast if your state doesn't come through.
Well, McCain is in worse shape than either Kerry or Gore because he's losing by 6%, not 2% nationally. Even a 3% Obama win in the popular vote would be bigger than Bush's in 2004 by 500,000 votes.
So, McCain is likely to lose VA and OH, and FL and NC even if he wins PA.
It's NOT some massive move to McCain nationally. It's a boost in support in the South primarily.
That might help McCain in Missouri and Florida (to some extent) and North Carolina, but that's it. It won't help McCain in Ohio, Colorado or Nevada or even Virginia much. And THOSE are the key states.
McCain's going down to defeat, and while he may make PA close, he's not going to be able to win anywhere else.
I think PA could become really significant if it takes a long time to call. The risk to Obama is that we get to the end of the evening with, let's say, VA, CO and PA too close to call. Then we get into a huge legal battle to determine the outcome of the election (not to mention residual resentment once the result is known).
My analysis (see http://www.the-numbers.com/thecrunch/?p=42 ) suggests that this won't happen, but it is definitely possible.
I also think, by the way, this is why Obama is campaigning hard in states like AZ, IN, NC... he wants to have a firewall in case of recounts in some of the big close states.
Anyone buy that?
If you're a Phillies fan, then by the Saturday after the Friday parade and the Wednesday clinch, you're barely sobering up.
Rasmussen gets to +4 Obama by dropping AA support from 93% to 80%. Those would be your fellow Phillies fans if you were one. *Yawn*
I can't figure out who is taking more of the paranoia pills of late; the Repubs worrying about the impending Obamapocalypse or the Dems that the election will be stolen at the last minute.
Seems pretty much done deal to me, I think every rational plotical reporter is saying McCain is cooked as soon as the red light on the camera goes out.
Nevada will not be close. When did Chuck Todd say that?
Chuck Todd is MSM
A Dick Cheney sighting. He is campaigning for McCain in Wyoming. He is on CSPAN giving a speech.
So, McCain is four times as likely to win if Obama loses PA, right?
This is the right spin for the GOTV people.
The Obama aunt story, per TPM, has all the signs of being an illegal leak (i.e. breaking the law) by the Bush administration. AP's article all but says so. The story was also initially broken by a Murdoch paper, the Times of London.
(Cheney comes out of the crypt - he is speaking to WY GOP. He's been out of sight so long he actually looks different physically - his face is thinner).
Don't forget, too, that the last few days were just bad days to poll the state.
The Phillies were in the World Series earlier this week, so many many many people weren't at home. And after they won, there was a gigantic parade yesterday that had more than 2 million people in the city virtually all day and into the night.
If the internals are reported correctly, Rasmussen has African-American support of McCain in this poll at 20%. That is a complete and utter joke - and is completely unrepresentative of every other PA poll.
Does anyone know if Biden will be in PA between now and Tuesday? As a Scranton boy, I'd be really surprised if they weren't sending him there.
Re: Aidan MT4
Ah, a misunderstanding. I don't just live in China - I'm actually Chinese.
buckeye said...
A Dick Cheney sighting. He is campaigning for McCain in Wyoming. He is on CSPAN giving a speech.
really ?
LOL
Early voting update:
NC:
-2,350,000 voted which is 66% of total votes cast in 2004
-AA at 26.3%(6-7 pts above models in pollsters internals)
-turnout 52% Dem, 30% Rep, 18%In
-turnout women 56% which is 4% above pollster models
Just because tightening occurs in any state in the final days, that doesn't mean the state could switch from blue to red, or vice versa. People are just not that fickle. There are a small percentage of soft-support for Obama, and likewise for McCain. They can each steal a little from that soft-support but hit a brick wall once the ficklers have switched. You see this all the time in the normal ebb and flow of state polls, as soft-support moves back and forth.
For PA, Obama may -- assuming you can trust the latest right-leaning pollsters -- have dropped from around 54% to 52% of the vote, while McCain has picked up some undecideds. But there's probably not much more room for McCain to gain, considering he's never led in PA and PA has been bluer than the nation for decades. There's probably 50%+ that just won't switch under any condition, so McCain is just wasting money and time. In the end, with Obama's stronger ground game, the ficklers will either switch back to him, or not bother voting, or vote 3rd-party. End result, Obama wins by 6-10% in PA.
NC has gone. Poor McGramps lol
Nate, will you marry me?
I need these posts, baby!
"DarÃo said...
The question is why is tightening the race in PA?.
I don´t see McCain winning PA but +14 to +4 in two days is much."
Dude. You are comparing apples and oranges. That'd be like asking why did Obama's lead jump from +5 (Rasmussen) to +15 (PEW)
You can compare the results of two different polls in a trendline.
It's clear the Rasmussen poll is biased towards McCain.
early voting in NC ends sunday ??
herunar-
Two points - if asshiles like you are the volunteers at Obama offices, I will pass.
Second, I am working election day (and probably night) for the campaign as an attorney in PA.
Arizona is a Toss-up on RCP. Dick Cheney left the bunker to tighten down Wyoming? What next, McPlain stop in Western Nebraska?
The media wants us to watch their cable news outlets. "Obama still dominating" is not a very compelling lead.
stephen C. Rose said...
Has poll considered a McCain revulsion factor among Republicans who intend to vote? They would vote down ticket and finesse the Presidential choice or go for Obama.
Has any poll covered Republicans who will not vote because like many Republican moderate leaders they do not like McCain Palin?
I feel this could be the great story of this election but I have no idea if it has been answered already in poll data..
The closest I've seen to answering these questions are the "enthusiasm" questions and the recent poll on voters' attitudes:
http://news.yahoo.com/page/election-2008-political-pulse-voter-emotions
My minimal anecdotal evidence, based on small sample canvassing data and those few R friends I have indicates that those who strongly identify as Rs (even tho they may be moderate themselves) feel duty bound to vote for the R because it's a vote for the party while some softer Rs are actually throwing votes to third parties in protest. Granted, these are undoubtedly a minority of responses but still possibilities
my worry is largely irrational and not likely to go away until I see him in the white house, but thank you, all the same. XD
A note on NC - alot of yelow dog dems are still down there, and they do not vote for dems (or have not) at the national level, since 1968.
That early voting from NC is very exciting. It seems extremely likely that Obama is locking in a pretty big lead there right now. If AA ends up at 26% (vs 20% in the polling) then Obama wins. Hell, even 23% may be enough to make it a pretty obvious Obama win.
ROBOTS ATTACK!
Official McCain campaign memo:
Ohio and Pennsylvania - Everyone knows that vote rich Ohio and Pennsylvania will be key battlegrounds for this election. Between the two: 41 electoral votes and no candidate has gotten to the White House without Ohio. Senator McCain and Governor Palin have been campaigning non-stop in these key battleground states and tonight Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has pumped up our campaign at a rally in Columbus. Our position in these states is strong and undecided voters continue to have a very favorable impression of our candidate.
JFK lost Ohio in 1960, FDR lost Ohio in 1944, Grover Cleveland lost Ohio in 1892. The Ohio trivia fact is that no Republican has ever taken the White House without Ohio.
At the moment, the Pollster.com average gives Obama a 6.3 percentage point lead in Ohio. But even if McCain were to gain 6.5 percentage points on Obama in every state, thus carrying Ohio, he’d still be losing in all the Kerry states plus Iowa, New Mexico, Colorado, and Virginia and thus lose the election.
"The Obama aunt story, per TPM, has all the signs of being an illegal leak (i.e. breaking the law) by the Bush administration. AP's article all but says so. The story was also initially broken by a Murdoch paper, the Times of London"
Kinda like what happened when that Blackguard, Joe the Plumber, dared to ask Obama a question!
Don't shoot the messengers -- look into the soul of your candidate and see them emptiness there!
****
Big Lawyer, Community Organizer Cannot Even Help Pitiful Relative
What makes us think he can help us?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/obama_aunt;_ylt=Akg3ol7MIwTtKRzYCFH7D8ASq594
He can wax poetically about “Auntie Zeituni” in his memoirs, but somehow her plight escaped his notice when she needed him most.
According to the AP, she was at his “The campaign said he last heard from her about two years ago when she called saying she was in Boston, but he did not see her there.” Consider how many times since then he has been in Boston, raising money and “palling around” with his buddy, Governor Deval Patrick. He seems to have taken no notice of this poor woman as he pursued his personal ambition.
Can we the people expect better of him?
I suppose Socialism does not begin at home!
As an ironic footnote, Auntie Zeituni has made at least $260 of illegal contributions to the Obama campaign. Pocket change he can believe in!
I can't believe there are so many Dems who think McCain has a shot at pulling out PA in the first place. There hasn't been a SINGLE FRICKIN POLL that shows McCain with even a teeny-tiny lead there. Try as the right-leaning pollsters might, they can't cook the numbers to favor McCain.
Obama will win PA by at least 5 points...probably 10 on November 4th. We won't be waiting very long for the networks to call this state.
justsomeguy - no doubt a lot of those dems are voting for McCain - it's the 26% AA that excites me more than the Dem/GOP split.
Also the high % of women voters is obviously another huge plus for Obama.
PLUS that it looks like overall turnout is going to be much higher than '04. High turnout is a huge plus for Obama.
Here is what you need to keep in mind:
There are a million more registered Democrats than Republicans in Pennsylvania.
It has a large minority population.
This is an uphill battle, even more so than 2000 and 2004 was for Bush.
Bush plowed huge resources into PA in 2004. He still came up 2.5 points short.
I'm not all that conerned about PA, though I'd prefer it if these polls were identical to a couple of days ago. I reckon, or hoping, this could well be the first time during this election that "noise" could be applied to a stste poll, rather than the national trackers.
Which other polls are due to come out of PA today and tomorrow?
Josh - Absolutely correct
You cant compare polls with different leans...only the trendlines. Now, that being said...the same polls in PA do seem to show a 2 point tightening or so. But considering obama is blowing him out there and the polls arent pulling support from obama as much as some undecideds have gone his way, it doesnt matter. Hes above 50% in all those polls, and thats what counts.
Okay, Nate, but your own model (as of yesterday) has Obama winning PA 99 to 1. Granted with the new Rasmussen and the tightening of the Morning Call poll this is likely to get just a bit closer tonight, but do you have reason to suspect the model of being that far off on Pennsylvania?
good point Josh. The AA turnout is becoming the afterstory of the election.
Blacks finally find there voice in national politics!
Tracking your races election results -- on CNN
Link
N.B. if you remove your "cookies" your data disappears...so bookmark the page and select your races on election day.
WV: imsises: buddy list family members?
Mike, you are digging yourself into a hole and you won't be able to get yourself out.
Another Pennsylvania poll from Muhlenburg College out this morning shows Obama leading by eight, but Muhlenburg's is a tracking poll that gives an average of five days of calling. In the past three days, Obama's lead has gone from 13 to 10 to 8, signaling that the margin of the most recent night of polling is significantly less than eight - perhaps right about where Rasmussen has it.
Anyone want to take a guess at the past 2 daily numbers in this PA Tracker?
Probably 6 on Thursday and 4 on Friday..
REMEMBER: This tracker gives the Dems a 12 point edge, if it is 7-9... we got a legit tie.
Al Jazeera English is normally quite good, but they couldn't resist presenting the election as a nailbiter with McCain catching up.
The evidence they presented for this was the latest Zogby poll with Obama only 5 points ahead.
However, they failed to note that Obama has been ahead by a steady average of 6-7 points for some time now. McCain has pushed up very slightly, but its only by fraction. So they were certainly trying to squeeze too much out of that angle.
"I know you guys on the left are against producing our own oil here at home, so you don't say "Drill baby, drill!"
So what is it that you say at your rallies? "Tax baby, tax?"
Just curious."
--
Republican cheer: "Spend like crazy and then mock the idea of paying for it, baby!!!!"
If all the Republidroids have left is going on about Obama's aunt, the election really is already over.
Pathetic, but that's what they are about these days. I look forward to their sound thrashing on Tuesday.
petekent - take your filth and shove it. you and your kind are going to be voted out on november 4th. real Americans have had it with YOU.
A news clip on local Cleveland TV had a reporter go to the line outside the Board of Elections and ask "How many Obama voters here?" Literally, every single hand went up.
But, then, again only 896 Rs have voted early in person out of 43,212 in person votes cast so far . . .
mike said...
I can't believe there are so many Dems who think McCain has a shot at pulling out PA in the first place. There hasn't been a SINGLE FRICKIN POLL that shows McCain with even a teeny-tiny lead there. Try as the right-leaning pollsters might, they can't cook the numbers to favor McCain.
There hasn't been a single poll that even has him closer than 4 points yet.
real joe,
Early voting NC ends today and they are extending hours to be open 8hrs today.
it should also be noted that this aunt is actually a "step aunt" (sister of his step father.)
Josh Marshall blogs about the convergence of Gallup's RV/LV1/LV2 numbers in favor of Obama.
Looks like early voting has convinced Gallup that this year really is different.
Humanism and intelligence are the new black!
One has to wonder about some of the Rasmussen polls. Their internals are a bit odd and their reps are on False, er. Fox News much too often...
Socialist, I hate that term, taxes
by definition is Socialism, Insurance
is Socialism.
We pay taxes so that our government
can use those dollars to pay for
the government to run including
DOD, FEMA, HHS, Transporation,
Education, Veteran Affairs, Education, State Department, HomeLand Security, Treasury, Commerce, Social Security,
Medicare, Medicaid.
Distortions, misrepresentations,
mis-directions seems to be the
trust of the McCain/Palin campaign.
Go 'O' Go
BTW, my word verification was
'ashanti',isn't that a R&B singer?
jen,
"I'm betting there will be some surprises in O's cabinet because his universe of possible appointees is going to be the universe of experts as opposed to the universe of Democratic politicos. At this point, I can't even hazard a guess as to who he'll come up with but I'm sure I'll be googling a lot when the names come out"
___________________________________
I definitely want to see Lincoln Chafee in there. I was hoping he would be Obama's running mate.
Mike- I totally agree with you. I am seriously not worried about this election at all, particularly PA. The one state that has my slightly concerned is CO, but I think Virginia is pretty safe so it likely will not matter.
Miests. Another term for Republicans. Most are meists who do not care what happens to people not them.
Early voting in NC ends today (Saturday, 1 November 2008).
Early voting hours have been extended. If you have not voted yet, get out there and do so. It's a beautiful day in NC. Bring a book and a folding chair. Wait, read, then vote.
WV: herott. A hero who is a hotttt. Obama is my herott.
otf said...
real joe,
Early voting NC ends today and they are extending hours to be open 8hrs today.
thanks for that info
charles m. kozierok -
Missed ya!
newsinoh said:
"A news clip on local Cleveland TV had a reporter go to the line outside the Board of Elections and ask "How many Obama voters here?" Literally, every single hand went up."
Awesome. Is that on YouTube?
(facepalm)
Great. Now they've even got you talking about losing PA.
Sheesh.
"who are rasmussen polling?"
BINOs = Black in name only
----------
BINOs, from alabama
=
ALBINOs!
that would explain some of the AA numbers
Youngstown, OH has less than 10% Republicans in the inner city.
In 2004:
Kerry beat Bush here 62-38 though.
The suburbs of Cleveland will make this race close.
A poll of Mahoning County voters had the race 52-47 a few days ago for Obama. That would be a catastrophic blow if Mahoning County only goes to Obama by 5 points!
Nate, why not just add "Obama loses PA, win election" to the scenario box?
Ut oh, it looks like Nate just realized Penn is slipping out of his hands... And is the supertracker looking more and more like a roller coaster about to take a plunge, or is it just me?
Early voting update
Georgia:
-1,994,990 votes cast which is 60% of all votes cast in 2004
-AA turnout holding again at 35% of votes cast
"petekent - take your filth and shove it. you and your kind are going to be voted out on november 4th. real Americans have had it with YOU."
It is "filth" now to point out Obama's less than stellar character and maltreatment of his flesh and blood?
How else are we to evaluate his promises, if not by looking at his actions? They speak louder than words.
You are Stalinist for trying to shout me down and have no conception of what a "real American" is!
*********
Big Lawyer, Community Organizer Cannot Even Help Pitiful Relative
What makes us think he can help us?
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20081101/ap_on_el_pr/obama_aunt;_ylt=Akg3ol7MIwTtKRzYCFH7D8ASq594
He can wax poetically about “Auntie Zeituni” in his memoirs, but somehow her plight escaped his notice when she needed him most.
According to the AP, she was at his “The campaign said he last heard from her about two years ago when she called saying she was in Boston, but he did not see her there.” Consider how many times since then he has been in Boston, raising money and “palling around” with his buddy, Governor Deval Patrick. He seems to have taken no notice of this poor woman as he pursued his personal ambition.
Can we the people expect better of him?
I suppose Socialism does not begin at home!
As an ironic footnote, Auntie Zeituni has made at least $260 of illegal contributions to the Obama campaign. Pocket change he can believe in!
hatshepsutely said...
I'm increasingly interested in PA. Rasmussen's spanking new poll of the state shows it as +4, which makes it the third time this week that a pollster has found the state at that spread (down from double digits). Also, a poster at Kos is saying that SUSA's next poll of the state (which is being released on Monday) had McCain +3 in its first day of polling.
Source?
I haven't read any of his comments on this sthread, but it's starting to feel like this is the last stand of Pete the Cunt.
HOLY SHITE!!! Cheney's came out the shadows??? That means all evidence has been destroyed, or there's another false flag operation in the works for Monday morning.
Heres the best reassurance that I can think of.
The obama campaign isnt visiting PA from here on out.
The question i pose to you guys is, has the obama campaign ever gotten it wrong in the last 3 months? These people are meticulous, and plouffe + Axelrod is like a turbocharged version of Rove. If plouffe and axelrod say PA is safe, you damn well better believe PA is safe.
If he loses PA we can assume he loses OH...doesn't that change the numbers? Man, I wish I had a li'l Nate Silver in a cigar box.
Only three more days until asswipes like Pete Kent get what they have earned.
Palin is giving a inspired speech
in FL,
Go 'O' Go
I think Obama's choices for his administration will be just as good as his choices in his campaign staff. Other than Joe Biden rarely being Joe Biden with malaprops, EVERYONE on that staff is smart, well-spoken and professional.
Compare to the horrendous spokespeople and campgain staff for McCain. I told my neighbor "I am a fake Virginian voting for that one". Bible Spice is a walking contradiction of republican talking points. I could fake neo-con answers on the fly much better.
Of course, these decisions are NOT executive in nature, right?
wv: weras - I like to think about the POLICIES of my candidate, weras McPlain only has empty promises and personal attacks.
subterranean,
The Cleveland clip isn't up anywhere yet that I know of. Just have the news on here in the background and it caught my attention.
O, Michelle and Springsteen are having a rally here tomorrow afternoon. Usually events like these are scheduled for Mall A (a large open area leading down to the football stadium). The rally is scheduled for Malls A, B, and C. . .
Basically, Cleveland's numbers are going to give O a huge cushion in OH.
LMFAO @ Dan
Yes. The supertracker is about to take a 7 point nosedive in 3 days, even though McCain just hit his all-time low in the tracker yesterday.
Morons abound.
"it should also be noted that this aunt is actually a "step aunt" (sister of his step father.)"
Wrong -- the stepfather was an Indonesian. This is his blood. he also has an impoverished Uncle living in Boston.
Word Verification: mulas -- donkey like voting block of Islamic clerics wildly hysterical over Obama's presumptive win
Chuck Todd of MSNBC gives a rundown of what to expect in all 50 states. Some highlights:
- Arizona: If McCain loses, he will have a tough reelection fight in 2010 again Janet Napolitano
- Arkansas: The only state with a Democratic governor and two senators McCain will win
- Connecticut: Watch Chris Shays in CT-04 defend the only House GOP seat in New England
- Florida: Many key House races here (FL-08, FL-16, FL-21, FL-24, FL-25)
- Georgia: Chambliss-Martin Senate race is a cliffhanger and might need a runoff
- Hawaii: If Obama wins, will the Western White House be in Honolulu? Reporters prefer it to Crawford
- Illinois: Will Obama's coattails be long enough to swing IL-10 and IL-11?
- Indiana: Could be close
- Maryland: Democrats might pick up another House seat making in 7 out of 8
- Michigan: McCain's decision to abandon the state may cause the GOP to lose MI-07 and MI-09
- Minnesota: The closest Senate race of the year is the Coleman-Franken-Barkley race here
- Mississippi: If black turnout surges, it might wash away Roger Wicker in the Senate race
- Missouri: The most Republican of the big swing states. If Obama wins this one it will be a landslide
- Montana: The demoralized GOP base might stay home and let Obama take these 3 EVs
- Nevada: The presidential race and two House seats are definitely in play here
- New Hampshire: The Democrats will probably win all the marbles here (again)
- New Mexico: The Democrats are likely to win presidential, Senate, and all three House races
- New York: Democrats might pick up four House seats and control of the state senate
- North Carolina: very close races for President, Senate, NC-08, and governor
- North Dakota: the psychological loss of North Dakota would be worse than the electoral loss
- Ohio: Obama and McCain are close; there are key House races in OH-01, OH-02, OH-15, and OH-16
- Oregon: Obama will crush McCain here and that might be enough to drag Jeff Merkley into the Senate
- Pennsylvania: probably not in play, but PA-11 and PA-12 might be close
- Virginia: Polls close at 7 P.M. EST here. If Obama wins, the show's over
- Wyoming: Believe it or not, the Democrats might win Cheney's old House seat
Nat's model is logical.
For McCain to win PA is to assume McCain knows something it doesn't.
He must be counting on massive racism + putting most of his resorces into one state.
Clearly he HAS acheived some tightening. I very much doubt he can do more. There is a ceiling.
But if he does win PA it will NOT be the result of general tightening. It will be at the expense of effort elsewhere.
PPP make a good argument for colerado being in the bag due to early voting and we can assume that everything safer is safe. That leave Obama with 3 good paths to victory. NV+VA, OH, FL. Obama is looking good in every one of them, and there is NO evidence of tightening.
Finaly Nate's model is not equiped to notice the greatest GOTV operation of all time VS one that apears 2'nd rate but on closer inspection is far worse. Good as te polls appear, the truth is even better.
owwiffe - exclamation after bloke tells spouse he voted McCain, and promptly gets kicked in the nuts.
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