My guess is that Obama is the slight favorite to win all four (well, not Alaska), but in order from most certain to least certain...
1. Indiana. All those volunteers in Gary may have made the difference.
2. North Carolina. It's clooooooose but Obama has a small lead and there's just not much vote left out there to count.
3. Montana. The Obama campaign was vewwy vewwy quietly feeling optimistic about this state, and holding onto a small lead with about half of the vote in.
4. Missouri. Looks like Obama's got plenty of votes left in St. Louis, but I haven't done the math.
11.05.2008
Outstanding States
@ 12:41 AM
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168 comments
The Oba-what?
Nate, pleaaaaaaaseeee....what's the status of Nebraska's 2nd congressional electoral vote?
I think Montana got cut off.
ALL HAIL THE OBA!
What a night.
"but I haven't done the math."
Ha ha ha. You know Nate is distracted with a statement like this. Nate ALWAYS does the math. It's alright Nate, you deserve a break.
Hey, don't forget about us here in CoMo! :D
Thank you guys for doing SUCH an accurate and TERRIFIC job. You are the best analysts politics has ever seen!
Congrats to all.
Nebraska's CD's, what's the dish?
Montana is ALL ABOUT the OBA!
Thanks for all your hard work Nate. =)
GOBA!
thanks Nate and crew. you guys really made this election something special with all your fancy numbers and on the road stories. i truely appreciate everything you guys have done and wish you much success for the future!
obama 08, YES WE DID!
You've started drinking too, huh?
Nate - will you be able to estimate what the GOTV was worth to Obama?
The Oba? Fo' reazzle?
Why will The Oba only contribute to his Montana victory?
yeah, I'm in NC and for the Oba but I know someone who was also for Obama and didn't vote...so sad so sad.
.4%!!!
You're really, really close to having called the electoral map perfectly. I'm more excited about that, now that the biggest hurdle has been jumped. KF
I'm going to bed now. The MN Senate race won't be called for a long time.
Nate and Sean, thank you for making a great blog and putting together an awesome prediction algorithm model thingy.
Now that blogger isn't crapping out, I can actually post properly.
Nate and Sean
Thank-you for all the hard work.
I spend today - well seven hours today and five hours yesterday getting out the vote for my candidate. Obama!
Your bipartisan perspective and neutral candor was a life saver.
Eric Wolf
www.ericwolf.org
Those ARE outstanding states
Nate:
You and Sean did an AWESOME job calling this election from top to bottom. Thanks for all of your hard work.
Missouri doesn't look great...depends on a 53/46 Bush county (Clay) giving Obama ~ 10,000 vote margin. Indiana, NC look good. No idea with Montana.
If he wins all four of the remaining, that will be huge. Huge as in the Republican Party is really going to have to take a look at how to realign itself.
Wow, 378 EVCs
I rang 75 doorbells in Gary, IN, this afternoon! And countless more in Indianapolis over the weekend. Phone calls too. I sooooooo want Indiana to go O!
I've been watching the NE vote on the World-Herald site, but it's not coming in very fast (and they're not tracking the individual districts)...John McCain is up overall 57-41...but the 2nd district is where most of the vote is still out--and CNN had exit polling in the 2nd district with Obama ahead 55-45. We'll see...
Also, the Esch-Terry race is tight. Right now, Terry leads 51-49...c'mon NE pull it out for the Dems!
The two maps on the right side of this page are suspiciously similar.
The Oba-ma Kenobi effect should not be underestimated in Montana ;)
I'm sure that's what Nate meant...
Like many, I have been feverishly refreshing your site the past few weeks when I would panic, sure there was no way the United States would elect a black president in my life time. I even bought a bottle of champagne on the strength of your prediction which I am drinking right now.
Well done. Very well done.
And all will be well, and all manner of things will be well.
HELL YEAH! SUPER SWEET SWEET ViCTORY!
Nate, you guys were spot on in your projections. You guys nailed it and i appreciate all the work you guys have done this cycle.
Prop 8 thread please! I am freaking on the LA county results. If it is passing there, I do not see how it does not fail. Sorry to be a concern troll, but this effects my friends and it just wrong.
You guys killed it in every way. Thanks for bringing clarity and intelligence to this. President Obama. Yes.
Doesn't look like he has quite the votes to do it in MO.
I'm getting poll-sick. (Not sick of polls, the electoral parallel to dope sick).
Agree, Missouri not adding up for me. Indiana, NC Obama. Montana no idea.
Looks like Nate will be wrong by about 10% lol
I think we all deserve an explanation!!!
Way to guys!
Obama may end up actually surpassing your electoral predictions but they none the less will be close.
By the time all the precincts are reported in California and some other favorable western states to Obama his popular vote margin should approach 6% as well.
Spot on gentlemen!
On behalf of the country, Barb, thank you. I've been constantly refreshing IN all night and to see it go blue will be incredibly moving.
What the heck's wrong with Minnesota?
It looks like they are going to reelect Bachmann (ugh) and Coleman.
Nate, here is one fan from back when you were Poblano asking you to just glance at CA and tell me if all hope is gone to defeat prop 8. The numbers are against us but I have no idea of what is/isn't outstanding. I want to know if I have to go back to saying "sister-in-love". (I used to think that was cool, but "in-law" is just cooler.)
the three counties with votes still out on the NC BOE site are counties Obama has won: Mecklenburg (Charlotte), Buncombe (Asheville) and Wilson (Wilson).
He'll win.
How about Nebraska-2? It seemed that Obama still enjoy a modest 51.1-47.7 lead in Douglas County with 60% reporting.
God bless Bob Barr, whose current vote total exceeds Obama's margins in both Indiana and North Carolina.
I've been campaigning my ass off in north carolina this week and will honestly will not feel true victory unless Obama wins that state. Unfortunately the county I was working in went red, but I want to see the state blue.
Great job, Nate and crew. You were my obsession for many months. Maybe now my kids will know me as something other than the plant growing in front of the computer.
Nate is mentioned in today's xkcd!
xkcd.com, then hold your mouse over the comic and read the text that appears.
Yeah, looks like McCain is going to hang on to Missouri and he appears to be making a comeback in Montana although I have no idea where the precinct counts are coming in from.
Indiana and North Carolina look just about ready to be called for Obama though!!!
NE-2 is currently at 49-49
Tallies from Nebraska's 2nd can be found here:
http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoral.htm
Wow. Nate nailed it! He pegged it at 348.6, the actual result will be 349.
Indiana seems pretty good for Obama, considering the only counties I can see which haven't reported all precincts are Laporte and Lake, both heavily pro-Obama
This is great news for John McCain. He has Obama right where he wants him.
Nate and team, many thanks for all your hard work and dedication throughout this entire election season. It was nice to have this site around to check every day (several times a day :-)) and gain encouragement and support.
Thank God for Nate and Sean. I had the champagne ready... I quite literally would have died without this site. I stressed so much then would come here. I was born in Indiana and live in Colorado so You Betcha' I want a red Co. !!
wv: fulker
honest, too bad I got it when so many of you could have done so much more
Great job tonight these past few months, and tonight too! Looking forward to the conversion to a porn site ;)
Amazing job - kudos to Nate et al. Your analytics and this site helped keep me sane during the last weeks of the election, and kept my hopes and fears aligned with reality despite all the political hype going down around us every day.
Looks like your numbers are panning out like gold. Incredible job. Thanks!
- Jon
Congratulations to President-elect John McCain!! Woooohooooo!!!!!
Congrats on an almost perfect prediction. If you missed any, they'll have been Obama pickups that almost no one thought he could get.
Congratulations to Nate and Sean! Best website ever. You certainly deserve whatever drink you are imbibing now!
And congratulations to President Obama!!
Indiana & NC yes - for sure.
Montana and Missouri - no.
338 + 15 + 11 = 364 Not so worse!
Nate,
Thanks for your work - I've learned so much here.
Can we now use the data to bury the Bradley Effect once and for all?
Obama didn't managed North Dakota, but he came 20 points closer than Kerry did, so that's progress.
Yeah, it looks like Indiana and North Carolina are going to be a pair of squeakers...waiting on the two of them is like May 6 part deux.
Missouri looks like it will be razor thin, hopefully with Obama just north. Obama is set to score an EV score right in the CLinton neighborhood, but without a third party spoiler to help him along, making it a much bigger achievement.
Nate is drinking Sean's bubbly piss, cat's miaow.
Congratulations to all my fellow elitist liberals!!! A new era of American history has just begun.
I would also like to re-post some of my favorite troll's comments. Call it Schadenfreude:
PeteKent said...
Stupid lib, you fail to realize your messiah is going to LOSE! HAHAHAHA!!
October 31, 2008 10:11 PM
PeteKent said...
Speaking of intrade, look at that McCain SURGE and Hussein DROP. Haha! Guess more people think Zogby is right than you thought!!!!
Stupid libs.
October 31, 2008 10:12 PM
PeteKent said...
I can't believe I threw in the towel yesterday... but I was never expecting a REAGAN COMEBACK!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!
October 31, 2008 10:13 PM
PeteKent said...
No, I said McCain is going to COME BACK
LIKE REAGAN DID IN 1980
HE CRUSHED THAT COMMUNIST CARTER!!!! HAHAHAHAHA!!! AT THE LAST MINUTE!!! JUST LIKE MCCAIN WILL!!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
October 31, 2008 10:21 PM
PeteKent said...
That Louisiana poll was fake.
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!! REAGAN 2.0!!!!!
October 31, 2008 10:25 PM
PeteKent said...
I don't know how to use intrade, or I'd bet my entire fortune on McCain getting 400 EVS!!!!
October 31, 2008 10:26 PM
PeteKent said...
Tell me how to do it and I'll bet EVERYTHING I HAVE!!!
Stupid lib.
October 31, 2008 10:29 PM
PeteKent said...
McCain will win FLORIDA. He will STEAL it just like BUSH did in 2000!
And you libs will cry! hahahah!
October 31, 2008 10:31 PM
PeteKent said...
I'm not trolling. Are you libs so delusional? Looking through your libtard tinted glasses to see this election is MCCAIN'S? Your messiah's time in the spotlight is OVER! He's just like Paris!
October 31, 2008 10:33 PM
PeteKent said...
The Ten Commandments of Goddess Palin I:
I: Thou shalt not elect commies.
II: Thou shalt not elect baby killers.
III: Thou shalt not elect a man whose name is Hussein.
IV: Thou shalt not elect a terrorist.
V: Thou shalt not elect a Muslim.
VI: Thou shalt not elect a risky person.
VII: Thou shalt not elect a Commiecrat.
VIII: Thou shalt not elect homosexuality promoters.
IX: Thou shalt not elect a black person.
X: Thou shalt always vote for the Republican Party. Country first! God bless America!!
October 31, 2008 10:46 PM
PeteKent said...
YES!!! YES!!!!!!
CRY LIBS!!! BOW DOWN!!! MCCAIN'S WIN % WILL CONTINUE TO SKYROCKET!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!]
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!
November 2, 2008 1:03 PM
PeteKent said...
YES!!! YESS!!!!!!
YOU STUPID LIBERAL F*CKS!!!!!!!!!!!!
LOOK HOW RED THAT MAP IS!!!
LOOK AT THAT SUPER TRACKER!!!
LOOK AT THAT WIN PERCENTAGE!!!
MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!!
November 2, 2008 1:08 PM
PeteKent said...
HAHAHAHAHAHAHA
YOU LIBS ARE SCARED! I WOULD BE TOO IF MY MESSIAH WAS LOSING!!!!
HAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHHAHAHAAHHHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAAAAHAHAHAHAHAHHAHAHAAHHA!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
November 2, 2008 1:12 PM
PeteKent said...
Look at the SUPER TRACKER!!!
Stupid lib.
VIRGINIA is RED!
PENNSYLVANIA is RED!
INDIANA is RED!
MISSOURI is RED!
OHIO is RED!
FLORIDA is RED!
November 2, 2008 1:17 PM
PeteKent said...
It's over, libs.
This, combined with stealing and cheating...you might as well just give up now.
Concede now and you won't be heartbroken on 11/4...HAHA!
Stupid libs!!!!
November 2, 2008 1:23 PM
PeteKent said...
You stupid liberal c*nts.
Just face the facts! Hussein hit his peak too early. And now he's coming down, just in time for a MCCAIN LANDSLIDE!!!
November 2, 2008 1:33 PM
PeteKent said...
I can imagine you libs:
Tomorrow: Rasmussen: Obama+1 (CRY!!!!!!!!!!! OMG!!!!!! HUSSEIN NO!!!!! OH WELL, WE STILL HAVE GALLUP, ABC NEWS, CBS, DAILYKOS!!!!)
Tomorrow:DailyKos: Obama+2 (NO!!! HUSSEIN!!! NOOOO!!!!)
Tomorrow:Gallup: (TIE in all models)
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO *suicide*
HAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHAAHHAHAHAAHAHA
November 2, 2008 1:41 PM
PeteKent said...
Ready for a MCCAIN LANDSLIDE, LIBS?!?!?!?!?
November 4, 2008 2:21 PM
Palin can cry all the way back to Alaska! With any luck, all the skeletons that have fallen out of her closet as a result of the mean, hateful, racist, divisive campaign she helped run will cause her to lose her 2010 reelection bid! From there she can be relegated to the same trash bin of history that Bush 43 will be thrown into, and only remain an oily stain on American political history.
NE-2 looks like Obama is just ahead.
Can you keep us updated on NE-2 and Prop 8 as well as the outstanding states?
http://xkcd.com/500/
haha ... you are amazing, Nate Silver.
Any idea what's happening with Georgia? The numbers don't seem to add up, and the WSB story suggests that there's up to 2 million more votes left...
oops I meant to say I really want Indiana to go blue. !!!!!!!!!!!! I think this will post right away as I am sure that everyone else is partying.
aratagne (didn't drink any of it)
Obama catching up in MO!!!
Wow, looks like Indiana and North Carolina are going to be won by Obama. They are 100% accounted for according to CNN & ABC.
Obama is also suddenly roaring back in Missouri and Montana is a total toss-up!
CNN.com just updated Sarpy county results and it's looking hairy in Nebraska's 2nd district. Unfortunately I can't find anywhere that's actually got precinct results split along district lines (or split any more finely than the county level), but 2nd district includes the more populous half of Sarpy so I'm assuming most of McCain's lead in Sarpy falls in 2nd district territory, which would put it about tied.
I'll also like to bring us down memory lane by posting a chronological list of labels that the McCain Campaign created for Obama (that didn't stick):
Black, Sexist, Not Trustworthy, Hussein, Osama, Celebrity, Inexperienced, New, Racist, Messiah, Liberal, Radical, Washington-Insider, Elitest, Muslim, Unknown, SCARY, Terrorist, Arab, THAT ONE, Communist, Anti-American, Socialist, Corrupt, Barrack-the-Redistributor, Like-Bush, Marxist, DANGEROUS THREESOME, Baby-Killer, The Devil, Antisemitic, President-Elect
Dear Dick Cheney,
'YOU CAN SHOVE YER FUCKING MANDATE UP YER ASS!!!'...
'YOU CAN SHOVE YER FUCKING MANDATE UP YER ASS!!!'....
'YOU CAN SHOVE YER FUCKING MANDATE...SHOVE YER FUCKING MANDATE....'
SHOVE YER FUCKING MANDATE UP YER ASS!!!!!
Thank God!!!!
I'm doing the math in Missouri, and I think Obama's going to win here. It's going to be very close. Clay County has not reported at all, and it will go Obama by at least 10k, probably more. StL still has another 10k for Obama left, and the County will add to that. It's gonna happen, I think.
why is someone reposting petekent's ironic imitator? grow a brain, sam.
I respect McCain in his speech tremendously and hope he really will work together with Obama. I hope Barack will extend a strong and sincere olive branch to McCain and set this country back on track.
What about Nebraska's second district? By my calculations, right now McCain is leading by only about 2,500 votes if you just add up the total votes for over Douglass and Sarpy counties. However, I know that the second district doesn't exactly follow county lines; this could be in Obama's favor. Additionally, Douglas country is only at 65% reporting while Sarpy (which is more pro-McCain) is 97% reporting. Still too close to call, I think, but could go for Obama! Talk about historic... this would be the first time that a state splits its electoral votes. Please please, talk about this! Why is no one talking about this?
Watching from here in Slovenia, haven't gone to bed yet. I've been religiously (if I were religious) been addicted to this site since I learned about it after Iowa. I've NEVER BEEN SO PROUD OF MY COUNTRY. I'm 32, first time POTUS voter and proud to see my home state of CO went blue. Many thanks to Nate, Sean and every one at 538.com and many thanks to all of you (other than Pete Kent, etc) whose hope and fear I shared throughout this ride. Let's all enjoy this day which we will never forget.
OBAMA!!!!
It looks like Indiana is Obama's. CBS news accounts for 5196 of 5230 precincts. Assuming that the number of voters at each precinct is about the same, and assuming there were 2.7 million votes cast, there are
(1-5196/5230)*2.7*10^6 = ~17k votes left to be counted in Indiana.
But Obama's leading by 23k.
Prop 8 Yes 53% no 47%, 24% of precincts reporting. Will see if county by county has changed.
We need to turn LA County rainbow to win!
That was some mighty fine pollsterin' there, Nate.
You'll need to work on your Montana-in' and Indiana-in', but I suppose Montana and Indiana will too.
have to say ah'm hoping montana goes for the cainer 'cos i had obama 375-ing this election.
It looks like he won Omaha! At least Douglas County.
http://www.votedouglascounty.com/meer/EL45.htm
I'm going to go out there and say that a low of the night has to be CNN's holograms and the "virtual capital" Ridiculous
Anyone know what happened to
tinklenberg bachmann
I gave my donation to see her defeated
NE-2 is Douglas and Sarpy County.
Right now Obama is behind by 2600, but that is with 97% of Sapry reporting (which went for McCain), and only 60% of Douglas (which so far is a slight Obama lean).
SO I think he will pick it up
As for Missouri - its going to be touch and go. I dont think he will win it - but St Louis and KC will make it very close.
Just checked in at Free Republic (not recommended) to see some true conservatives getting their story straight on what happened. Can you guess what it was?......wait for it.....the party and the candidate weren't CONSERVATIVE ENOUGH.
I'm proud to have called the Indiana upset weeks ago. NC looks like Obama's, MO might not. Montana is a complete guess at this point.
Outstanding quesitons:
What happened to the polls in VA?
How will the popular vote margin stack up to prediction?
What was/is Real Joe's surprise?
cher said...
Anyone know what happened to
tinklenberg bachmann
I gave my donation to see her defeated
C*NT kept her seat...Here's to 4 years of complete misery for that b#tch
NE-2
according to the secretary of state site Obama is up by 359 votes. the last update was at 11:26.
We are shocked to see NC go virtually solid Blue in all positions...WOW. Thank God this is over...now Palin can go finish off what little is left of her short Political career...she's the reason McCain couldn't break 200 EVs...bye bye bimbo Palin.
How's Joe the Plumber doing???
I'm sure going to miss him
Just want to thank 538.com for being a reliable companion this election season and saving at least me from insomnia and insanity. Looking forward to all the post-election analysis, what went right and what went wrong and why.
The exit polls from Alaska show Obama won the female vote 49-48.
Sarah Palin: ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha, ha!!!!!!!
hope you are right on these last few states
also just got to say thanks nate I have got my poll data from fivethirtyeight since the start and looks like you got it right big time
What's thes core with Murtha?
Joy! Joy! JOY!!! I feel nothing but joy.
Joe the Who?
So much for your model, Nate: it has only predicted 46 out of 46 races called so far.
This site has been well worth the multiple daily visits. Informative and entertaining. A tip of the hat to you, Nate, Sean, and Brett.
Nate, you got a shout out in the 500th XKCD comic strip today!
http://xkcd.com/500/
Hold your mouse over the image for the bonus message about Nate.
WV: dozen, as in "Now that the election is over, i'm going to be dosen off to sleep"
Matt,
I have the same question about VA. Lots of polling over the last couple of weeks. An amazing GoTV operation. And still pretty close...for a while there I was worried. I expected Obama to overperform his polls there slightly, on the basis of enthusiasm. Instead they were off in his favor by +/- 4%.
On the other hand, I think I underestimated Indiana's GoTV, along with a lot of other people.
And Georgia was simply a pipe dream...
Turnout is also not as dramatically increased as I was led to believe.
Hi guys,
I'm feeling a bit all over the place here on a surfeit of pink champagne and Obama cupcakes - bought on the strength of your predictions - but I just wanted to thank you for creating the most marvellous guide through the complexities of a US election. You are all truly brilliant and I look forward to reading your book.
WV 'biyab' - me to Palin and McCain, please don't darken my door again
I know it's late, and I'm like a 100 comments down, but in the midst of all this celebrating I'd just like to take a moment to thank all of you at 538.com. Nate, Sean, Brett...you have all been nothing short of fantastic. Thank you for doing such amazing work.
I am excited to see where you will be taking the site in the future, especially with regards to the marrying of Nate's methods to the world of politics outside elections.
Whats the deal with Georgia? Will they come out with the real numbers its a shame if they called it wrong and Obama won and the senator being cheated. I really feel bad for the people who waited in those long lines and they playing games with their votes. What do you think Obama's popular vote will end up being in number and percentage?
Nate, thanks for keeping on top of everything the whole time and taking the time to share your analysis. Loved you on HDNET.
Don't give up on Missouri quite yet. According to the NY Times map, Obama should pick up another 30,000 votes from St. Louis and Kansas City.
The percent of NC precincts reporting rounds up to 100%, but we're not finished yet. Six counties still have votes to count and it's sooooo close. They need to hurry up - I have to teach in the morning!
wv: gyingr: what my stomach needs after the stress and anticipation waiting up to see what color NC is.
Thanks Nate,
Great job. I look forward to more great things from you.
You were a beacon of reason among the noisy throng.
It's finally time to get some sleep. What a day!
I foresee big things happening for you, Nate, Sean, and Brett. Brilliant work, guys, and best of luck in your future endeavors!
PorridgeGun asked:
"What's the score with Murtha?"
Murtha wiped the floor with his opponent.
WV: hypesse - what Obama's daughters probably were with the news.
Update on the senate races.
What do you think Obama's popular vote will end up being in number and percentage?
It looks like the popular vote will be just about what Nate projected.
Based on the outstanding counties, it looked like Ohio was called too early. Must have been out-of-this-world exit polling.
Still, a 3.5% lead is about 3% less than I was expecting in VA.
Obama is not going to win Missouri. Too little votes left in St.Louis.
re xkcd: maybe my firewall, or privoxy, or adblock, but I don't get a mouseover response. Somebody please just post the text here?
I believe there's a few trolls here that suppose to eat their shorts now.
Youtube will be nice.
It also looks like Obama has a better chance win MO in a squeaker than NC.
Al Franken's remaining hopes are in Hennepin and St. Louis counties. There may be enough votes there to win.
All of these results are EXCELLENT news for John McCain!
Please take the Shrilla from Wasilla with ya and don't let the door hit ya where the good lord split ya!
Indiana is looking awfully blue on CNN's vote count. 24,000 vote lead for Obama out of 2.6 million with 99% of precincts reporting. Just a tad above the recount threshold.
NC looks headed for a recount. There's a 14,000 vote Obama lead out of about 4.2 million votes. 0.3%
MO is another recount candidate with a 12,000 McCain lead with 94% OF precincts reporting, including 100% of St.Louis City and 93% of St.Louis county reported. There are a few rural precincts with little or no tally reported yet (Douglas, Dunklin), Also Clay county north of Kansas City, which I don't know if it's urban enough to go blue. Looking pretty red despite Obama carrying St. Louis County 60/40.
McCain has taken the lead in Montana.
So, what was the surprise by real
Joe?
As a Minnesotan, I'd like to apologize for our collective wisdom of seeing fit to reelect Bachmann and Coleman. I used to live in her District, and it's much too full of low info, fundie homophobic nutjobs. As for Coleman, I think he's somehow managed to maintain enough likability ala Pawlenty getting reelected 2 years ago to stave off a less than stellar Franken campaign.
I think Michelle Bachman was absolutely right. We do need to investigate politicians to see if they are unpatriotic. We should ask them all the following questions:
1. Have you ever revealed the name of an active CIA agent to our enemies during a time of war? If so, did you do so for political reasons?
2. Have you ever questioned the service of American veterans? Specifically, have you ever distorted the service of Lt. John Kerry or questioned the patriotism of Capt. Max Cleland?
Obama is not going to win Missouri. Too little votes left in St.Louis.
Jackson County still at 88% (where Kansas City is).
Alex Castellanos is a slimy wanker.
He's also full of shit.
Nate,
Look at how accurately you called this election, state for state.
The second best thing to come out of this election was your emergence as the most intelligent, science-based commentator on the political scene today.
I don't know how to thank you for helping so many of us through this amazing, difficult, scary, and exciting time.
Thank you, Nate. thank you, thank you, thank you.
(Professor) Don Loeb
Franken was down 52k with 27% of the vote left. Now he's down just 7K with 22% left!
Thanks so much for this site guys, in the end it was the only place I trusted for stats. This is probably not quite on topic, but it's here.
I spent the last 3 weekends and the last 4 days cavassing the east side of Detroit to GOTV for Obama. The only way to fight my nerves was to do everything in my power. I went to some places I never would've gone and met people I never would have met otherwise. We are all exhausted, but in the end the city of Detroit turned out 97% for Obama.
I met a young woman at 6:45 tonight who got out of jail early on good behavior - jut in time to vote for the first time in her life. We drove her to the polls, and she voted for Obama.
After the polls closed and we watched Obama's speech at a bar, we drove down Woodward Ave, the main drag in Detroit to get home. Solid cars! People honking, cheering, high fives, fist bumps, loud music, more honking, and just general euphoria. Of all the places for a white girl to be on this historic night. THIS WAS THE PLACE.
Thanks 538, Thanks Obama, and Thanks Detroit!
Fuck you, pundits. Obama doesn't need to reach out to Republicans. He has a mandate.
Franken is now down just 4k with 22% and a quarter of one of his main counties left!
Congressional and Senate seats not coming in, "as expected". That's where the fraud is evident.
Aagh. With about a third of the vote in, Senator "Tubes" Stevens is leading Mark Begich by 4 points.
Wonderful night though, here in the blue part of AK.
Jackson County came in and McCain is leading by 13,000. St.Louis will bring 9,000 and there are some Republican leaning districts not reporting so Missouri will go McCain.
HOW HAVE THE NETWORKS NOT YET CALLED INDIANA FOR OBAMA?!
If you look at the outstanding counties, they are all heavily Democratic. All the rural counties have fully reported. There is simply no way McCain can win this state, and nearly all the votes are in but a few thousand. Call the fracking state already so it shows up in the papers as blue , not gray!!
fuck, nevermind, missouri is going mccain i think. clay came out even. i hope i'm wrong; there's still a few votes in jackson and st louis counties.
Hannah,
Awesome. Detroit would have been a great spot to spend the evening.
Back here in A2 people took to the streets as well. At least 1k after the concession speech. Police drove people back on to the sidewalks and I went back in to watch Obama's speech, but still a nice spontaneous gesture.
Should have driven out to Chicago after all.
Thanks for you GoTV in Wayne. It was nice to see Macomb and Oakland do the right thing as well, as once upon a time 2 months ago, that was McCain's ostensible beachhead.
Sam et al.
Suggest you take a look at moving and thoughtful remarks by PeteKent under McCain Speech item below. Appears he's successfully and thoroughly pulled your leg.
Missouri looking unlikely (McC ahead 13,000+, 97%, 5 minutes ago), Montana hours to go before we sleep.
Take comfort in the national vote which is looking more like a "mandate".
Franken not looking too good, either.
Indiana and North Carolina going to Obama, Missouri and probablt Montana to McCain
PumaKent
fakePumaKent
Right Wing Con Florist
yeah night night chumps
wv:"greasho"
nothin' like a last mention of Palin eh?
Sedi
Looks like the final tally was 4%...so nevermind. Roughly in line with the polls. So the only real place I see Obama outperforming the polls was Indiana. Thanks Gary!
Oh well, let Missouri go whichever way it wants. America doesn't care. So much for the bellwether state. It has been a self fulfilling prophecy and now it's history.
Montana will go McCain. Most of the blue precincts are in already, and lots of the red ones are still out.
Anxiously awaiting the NC call. It appears there are not enough outstanding votes to give it to McCain.
Nate and Sean,
You made a home for all of us. Thank you.
Your ability to project results was awesome. I'll expect a scorecard, but I think your macro prediction on the PV will be as good as anyone’s.
The pollsters did an excellent job on the state level. E.G. McCain will lose PA by 10 and OH by 5. He lost NV and CO and he may lose MT. All prefigured. The eventual PV should be at 53-46, seven points dead on. Awesome that it worked out so well, except the Exit Polls, but even they appear to have improved from 2004 and the biggest flaw that I can see is that they over-sampled Pro-Obama women by a few points.
No one did any of this better than Nate. He is a dullard for sure and his throwing out of bombs for us to chew over was kind of mean since we were a very rude and derisive bunch, wholly intolerant of opinion differences in the sense that the opponent was always a demon, a deeply flawed malevolent individual.
It surprised me how uncharitable and, well, ill-liberal, Liberals can be. It eventually turned me off to the point where I preferred to throw my own bombs and not respond to the bait that was nearly 100% insulting.
Very early on I was prepared to introduce the specter of race that hung over this campaign. I did not see why we could not in an anonymous forum exchange ideas about the elephant in the room.
My thesis: I felt that ultimately the people would come to reject a man who forced them to filter everything through a prism of race so that even mere criticism became intolerant behavior. I thought that Obama would be asking too much to have our every action adjudged for its potentially racist content and felt and continue to feel that such a thing will be a distraction to an Obama Presidency.
I am still fearful of this, but we have seen the ability of Barack Obama to turn such things on their ears. I have to say that the fear I felt that would cause the people to reject Obama, became instead a desire to affirm the man, to accept even the superiority of his race, as we had insisted on accepting the superiority of the white mans. Mmmmm . . . .
While it may be naïve, there is a certain comfortable assurance of rectitude in being for Obama. I think this was ultimately what made him so successful. We could redeem our racist natures simply by voting for him. How easily we could be washed clean.
Folks like me know better. It takes a lot more than a feel good vote to cure a person of uncharitable feeling towards his fellow man.
Still, his genius was making voting for him an affirmation of our better selves. I find that the most breathtaking political conceit in the history of politics and I feel he has set himself up so that he needs to be a very successful performer because we embraced him body and soul and abandoned generations of prejudice to act in what we were told was our better nature.
With Senator, now President-Elect, Obama, there had better be a great deal of "there there". He has told us to ignore his biography -- or at least the gaps in it -- and his plans have sounded high-minded and materially beneficial for the great mass of people. Obama ran as a populist.
He must maintain his popularity.
So now I have a standard to which I can hold Obama.
I have always been willing to be forthright about my issues and concerns about the Senator. I expected discussion and was shocked to find that I was to be shouted down.
It became a theme of the campaign. You all – Senator Obama – The Media. Case in point: Joe the Plumber.
Still as things draw to a close, I realize, Sean and Nate, that we were ungovernable and I appreciate the liberality of your spirits to let us run free.
I will always feel affection for Sean for he was the messy human face on all this. Poker player, channeler of Jack Kerouac. His inspiration for Bizzaro World caused me to write an elegy to Barack Obama that even I found moving. And in which I still find hope, because in the end our choices are our appealing to our better natures.
I so comprehend how excited and hopeful you must feel. Obama's charisma is palpable. Along with that is his power. Think of what he accomplished from nothing. He is either a truly great man or some truly great man or men are pulling his strings. But either the way the coalition he represents is the most powerful one in politics today.
A politician like that makes generations sit up and take notice. We respond to their ability to bring to fruition a shared agenda. That might be the agenda of hope and change – a legitimate aspiration or it might be a policy agenda - -even one that is Socialistic, whatever it is it will please the Left.
You wind up idealizing such politicians.
It is what we felt for Ronald Reagan and what we now feel for Sarah Palin.
I tell you, she will come back to haunt y'all!
She is the final couplet of this little Shakespearean Drama (Comedy?).
This forum has been my passion along with the election itself for the past six months it seems.
Sean, I hope you win a million bucks.
Nate, you are the Superstar of Polling, my friend. Name your price. You are worth everything you can command. How’s that for banality? I hope it was long and rambling enough and that even in its paragraph structure it brought tears of boredom to your eyes.
Thank you and good night to one and all!
North Carolina update: Only TWO precincts are still not reporting. They are in the Charlotte area. One is Republican for sure, but is one-third the size of the other one that is HEAVILY Democratic and has nearly 39% African-American voters. I cannot see any way that he does not win NC...even if only half a point.
Nate,your site has kept me sane during a very nerve wracking electoral process. And boy did it pay off. You and your number crunchers were pretty dead on. Kudos for sheer brilliance! Thank you for providing an amazing site that after reading some unbelievable story in the MSM I would go to 538 to remind myself there was nothing to fear...thank you thank you
ps: being a die hard baseball fan (Yanks) and stats person (novice) your background made sense and the insight was beyond value
Madera
From very BLUE Jersey!
Here's something incredible: Ralph Nader has risen from the grave to screw up yet another election - Missouri.
Per the Sec of State's website, McCain currently leads Obama by a little over 17,000 votes.
Ralph Nader currently has a little over 17,000 votes in Missouri.
MT has a number of R+500-2,000 counties left and most of the heavy D counties have already reported.
MO still had some results from Jackson (KC) and STL City to come in. I think Obama will win MO
IN has results left from mostly blue counties.
As for VA:
Prince William, Manassas City, Loudoun, and Henrico all flipped.
Albemarle was red in 2004, Obama won it by 10,000 votes. The Northern Neck is starting to go blue.
Absentee voters from Arlington, Fairfax Co, Newport News, Portsmouth, Prince William, and Richmond City haven't reported their results yet. In addition, Richmond City went +38,000 for Obama and some of the heavier Dem precincts have not yet reported.
In Arlington and Fairfax, early voting was pretty much allowed for any reason.
I'm thinking we have another 50-75k to add to the margin in VA, and that's nearly 2%. It'll be 53-47 when all is said and done.
Indiana and NC to Obama.
Missouri to McCain.
Montana - probably McCain, but Gallatin (Bozeman and MSU) still hasn't reported at all. One of the bigger counties in the state. Bozeman is less lefty than Missoula, but will probably be blue.
NE-2 will be in the single digits. I'm thinking Obama.
355. Not bad.
I am as sick as you all think I am. i enjoed all the sock puppets and even acquired a couple of my own. I will reflect on what I did to inspire such hate speech, funny as it is. I have no time to read and hope to remember to come back and read them. Genius to be talking about tommorow's Ras poll. I wonder if I will wake up looking for it!
WV (really); sadmen -- me and my cohorts!
CNN called AK for McCain. No surprise
Nate, Sean: fantastic job. Thank you so much
Where are you guys checking NC results? CNN hasn't updated in a while.
Coleman/Franken race is insanely close...
Coleman - 1,048,956
Franken - 1,048,784
I expect my vote to be the difference.
@madamerica
ABC is pretty good
Franken's catching up big time...-180 votes right now, incredibly close
Can we talk about how Stevens is AHEAD?
Get ready for Senator Palin!
Why hasn't Indiana or North Carolina been called for Obama? Whats going on in Missouri?
MSNBC just called INDY for Obama
Re: Palin's "coming back to haunt us."
Please sir. Not the briar patch.
I don't believe the Governor of Alaska can appoint a vacant Senate seat. If Stevens is re-elected and the Senate throws him out (which the Republican leadership has indicated is a 100% certainty), then the seat sits vacant until there can be a run-off. Palin can run for the seat, I suppose, but she won't be able to appoint herself or anyone else to it.
paprbackwriter16 said:
Re: Palin's "coming back to haunt us."
Please sir. Not the briar patch.
Good one! And my sentiments exactly.
My sincere thank to Nate, Sean and Brett for your fantastic work during this election cycle.
You are true professionals. I will miss your great posts.
So far without NC, MO and MT Obama is at your projected total of 349.
You have outdone all pollsters. Someone should be calling you soon to add you to their payroll.
Congratulations
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