11.03.2008

On the Road: I-4 Corridor, Florida

“I slept and woke to the crazy exultant sounds of music and Dean and Marylou talking and the great green land rolling by. ‘Where are we?’ ‘Just passed the tip of Florida, man – Flomaton, it’s called.’ Florida!”

– Jack Kerouac, “On the Road”

In Florida, the vote needs to be protected. Barack Obama supporter Mike Vitali, a Boston criminal defense lawyer who had long backed Joe Biden, bought a plane ticket, took off two weeks, and came to Florida to "make sure nobody is disenfranchised."

Craig Winters, a Florida JD who does inside poll watching in Broward County put it plainly. "Our job is to ensure that the Florida statutes regarding voter access to the polls are properly enforced," Winters said. "Everyone entitled under Florida law to vote should be allowed to do so. It's that simple."

Crescent Moon - BrettMarty.com


Like Winters, Vitali remembered finding information through Barack Obama's "Lawyers for Change" link. Everything is on his own dime. "You're all lawyers. College students need the housing," Vitali remembered the campaign telling him, he laughed.

Jane Sender, an out-of-state volunteer coordinator for Lawyers for Change, had met with a group of Boston-area lawyers to schedule volunteers for different states. Some went to Pennsylvania, Iowa, Ohio, and, most popularly for the proximity, New Hampshire. Sender told Vitali that the campaign planned on bringing 5,000 lawyers to Florida. "She said, 'Can you come?' I said, 'I have a law practice.'" Without missing a beat, "she said, 'Early voting starts October 20th.'" Vitali came.

For two weeks, Vitali has protected the vote in Hillsborough County, which includes Tampa, and which George Bush won by 31,444 votes in 2004. It was surprising to him, as a Massachusetts resident, that there would be lines of early voting in Florida. Encountering lines "at least an hour long" everywhere he went, Vitali was thrilled when Governor Charlie Crist extended early voting hours, which ended yesterday. "Crist did a truly great thing," Vitali said. "To make sure every vote in Florida gets counted" is the reason he flew down.



Vitali and other lawyers have undergone extensive training in Florida election law. They report to a lead counsel every day, with records "in as much detail as you can imagine." If something comes up that is critical, something the on-the-scene voter protection lawyers can't fix on the spot, they'll call it in to their lead counsel. For example, if someone is told that they need a voter registration card to vote, when all they need is a picture ID, Vitali and his cohorts around the state are there to educate. "A big part of what we're doing is educating the public," Vitali said.

Another example Vitali offered was making sure voters weren't denied the right to vote if the driver's license address didn't match the voter roll address. The ID is for identifying that the voter is, in fact, the person voting, not for voting purposes. "It doesn't need to match," Vitali noted. "If you can swear that you live in the county, the photo ID is to say, you're that person."

Inside the polling locations are Florida-certified JDs. Winters is one of those who sits inside the polls. Winters had to sign up and register for that post ahead of time, as only voters registered in Broward County are allowed inside the polling locations. Inside poll watchers bring their own folding chair, lunch, drinks, snacks and cellphones. Winters also "has a nifty hat" identifying him as a poll watcher.

As to the frustrations and challenges he's come across thus far, Winters felt concerned about the massive lines for early voting. "Because many have busy schedules, such as work and child care obligations, this is an unacceptable situation," he said, and "exercising one's right to vote under these conditions can have very real financial consequences."

"Hopefully, when 900 precinct polling locations are open on election day, versus the 17 early voting locations, things will move faster."

Winters said that the operation in Broward County is similar to the one in 2004. Many poll workers now worked Broward in 2004, which went smoothly and appears to be going smoothly again. Vitali concurred. Despite the lines, "early voting seem(ed) to be running pretty smoothly," he said. He asks voters walking out of the polling places if they've had any problems inside. People are "very forthcoming," and most places ran very smoothly.

Vitali heaped praise on the election workers inside the polls. He goes and introduces himself before the polls open just so they know who he is and what he's doing. "I can't stress enough" that these workers have adapted so well on the fly. They've had to adapt to longer hours because turnout has been so huge, Vitali said, and "were so fantastic with elderly and disabled voters that (I was) actually proud to be part of democracy."

Yard Signs - BrettMarty.com


We stopped into Tampa offices, Daytona Beach offices, and ultimately several Panhandle offices in the waning days of the campaign. In Tampa, at the Republican Party of Florida Headquarters, we met volunteer Joyce Thompson, age "we'll call it 50." Thompson, who was already working for a local county commissioner, was convinced by a friend to help on the campaign after Sarah Palin came through Clearwater.

Originally intending to go to the Palin rally to enjoy herself, she "was volunteered" to sign up other volunteers for work shifts. "We got great responses," she said. Over 375 volunteers were recruited that day, and close to 200 at the subsequent Palin event in the area on a Sunday morning when not as many volunteers were available to recruit other volunteers.

"Volunteerism is the crux of the whole campaign," Thompson said, and indeed in this office we arrived at 8:00 pm to find nine phonebankers. They were busy dialing independents and persuadable Dems, according to Thompson. Her local campaign in strong shape, she really wanted to put in some hours in the office, where she had been going nonstop since noon. She helped with postcards to be mailed to voters, as well as helped manage a group of women putting together 800 walk packets. The RPOF Hillsborough office was as busy as any office we'd seen on the Republican side.

In Daytona Beach, where we found the Republican office closed and locked by 7:00 pm, the Democrats were busy, at the halfway point of the day's work. Trains of volunteers and organizers shuttled through the doors, preparing staging locations, prepping turf, and answering phone calls from voters with voting questions as late as 10 pm when we left. We hadn't planned to go all the way to Grayton Beach that night because we were exhausted, but the intensity of the effort in the Daytona Beach office inspired us. As with all Obama offices we've seen, there is an infectious, optimistic energy that feeds those present, and I drove until past 4 am with a clear eye after the Daytona Beach jolt.

In the Panhandle, the effort on the Democratic side was consistent. Sylvia Alf has been working on campaigns "all my life." Indeed she has. "My first campaign job was in 1943 as a three-year-old handing out the cards of candidates at polling places under the watchful eyes of my parents." Alf is thrilled about Barack Obama. "I’ve made so many calls I suspect that I’m developing a cauliflower ear."

First time volunteers Susan and Buz Livingston note the difference in Democratic efforts in the Panhandle. "Are you kidding me? The difference between the Obama and Gore/Kerry campaigns is the difference between high-speed internet and dial-up," Susan said.

There was no way residential construction worker Dennis Kimbrell was going to let this chance pass him up. "There was no way I was going to sit on the sidelines this time," he said. "I am a southern white male, I belong to the club, so people do not hesitate to say things to me," he told us. "I have heard all the racial epithets, even in my own family. I have been told by people that do not agree with even one McCain position that they are voting for the 'Patriot,' not 'that damned Muslim.'"

Still, Kimbrell works even harder when he hears those things, giving full-time volunteer hours to the campaign. "The most satisfying the thing for me is I have talked with a lot of people that say things like, 'Thanks for taking the time to call and inform me of these things,' 'I had not heard this or thought of that,' or my favorite 'you have convinced me to vote for Obama.'"

You can't get that effectiveness from robocalls.

Alf explained her feelings about this election as well as anyone we've encountered. "I truly believe that the example of how Obama has lived his life, what he has learned, his many years of grass roots activism to improve the lives of people, how he has coped with racism and being the “outsider” connect to the countless layers of American society. In-group and Out-group designations are alive. Obama speaks to them because he has lived it; the living-of-it gives him the right to talk about inclusiveness. He personifies hope for a better future for our fractured and hurting country."

We'll have one final report from Georgia later on.

On the Beach with 538 - BrettMarty.com

197 comments

Jay said...

hackwa: Cherokee for "first"

Christopher said...

Good on him...

Real Joe said...




Gallup

RV

O 53 (+1)
M 40 (-1)

LV(E)

O 53 (+1)
M 42 (-1)

LV(T)

O 53 (+2)
M 42 (-1)

McCain Surge !!!


Rachael said...

where is Eric then?

Mule Rider said...

538 has jumped the shark.

Real Joe said...

hey mule

how are you ?

rodrett said...

RCP has O @ 7.5

I wonder if soft republicans will stay home tomorrow?

RoseGrower said...

WARNING: Check Your Registration!

My husband and I live in Missouri. We've lived at the current address for more than 8 ½ years. We've been registered to vote that entire time and have voted multiple times. Last week, we both checked the Secretary of State's website, to verify our eligibility to vote as well as to make sure we knew where our polling location was. Everything was fine.

This morning, my husband checked again, wanting to get poll hours. This time it tells him that he isn't registered to vote! WTF? I checked and I still am. My husband had to leave work and drive 45 – 50 minutes to get to the local election authority only to be told that, yes, he can vote. The computer was wrong. He was relieved obviously, but now I wonder: how many other people have been told, via the website, that they cannot vote? And how many of those people would just give up rather than fight it or check on it?

The thing is, our Sec. Of State is a Democrat, daughter of a former and well-respected governor. I have trouble imagining that this is something she or those under her did. But it does certainly illustrate a situation which might happen in battleground states or counties.

(And, of course, now I'm worried that my husband will wait through the line tomorrow only to have a problem at the polls themselves.)

wv: scuer, as in voter suppression can scuer the results of the election.

livemild said...

mccain is coming to my town this afternoon. is there anything someone here wants me to tell him?*

*besides the obvious four letter words. remember he is DOWN folks.

DoctorMcLovin said...

Sean, these posts and Brett's photo's have been a treat. Of course, junkies like me depend on Nate to get that juice (i.e. polling data and modeling) but your work has been excellent.

I hope you consider putting together a coffee table book with your text and Brett's pics. I imagine some of Nate's maps, a final set of box scores from Nate, and perhaps a preface from the Obama campaign. I think if you rush productio it could be a real hit this Christmas season.

shadowguidex said...

So, I WAS planning to watch election coverage tomorrow night on MSNBC, but looking at their plans with lame lit up ice rinks, and other gimmicks, I'm thinking I need to tune in to another network. What should I do, CNN? ABC? I need a no nonsense network that doesn't turn our democracy into a gimmick.

Dmitry said...

These lawyers need to get a life.

Pooji said...

While walking to work this morning, I noticed that Obama/Biden opened up another volunteer office in Milwaukee, WI over the weekend. Brought a smile to me face, it did, even though it's probably not needed in Wisconsin.

Have they opened up any new offices in Florida over the weekend?

K from VA said...

Any 538ers going to the Manassas rally tonight??

shadowguidex said...

"mccain is coming to my town this afternoon. is there anything someone here wants me to tell him?*"

Tell him he's gonna lose in 2 years.

Dave said...

Sean, you and Brett really need to collaborate on a book once this election is over!

shadowguidex said...

"While walking to work this morning, I noticed that Obama/Biden opened up another volunteer office in Milwaukee, WI over the weekend. Brought a smile to me face, it did, even though it's probably not needed in Wisconsin."

I wish the dems would work harder to unseat Paul Ryan from 1st congressional in Wisconsin. I'm from that district, and we're a blue district, but we've had this red congressman for years now.

PeteKent said...

Looks like the North Carolinians aren't ready to get rid of their PATRIOT Dole yet!!!!

Mule Rider said...

Doing fine, Real Joe. Glad this will all be over soon.

rodrett said...

"mccain is coming to my town this afternoon. is there anything someone here wants me to tell him?*"

tell him to stop saying "my friends" every third word, he sounds like a douchebag.

Dr. Matt said...

Drudge sinks to a new low....if that's humanly possible. Faux.com will be following shortly.

Jaime said...

shadowguidex: watch regular NBC. It's no-nonsense and Brian Williams is good-looking to boot.

livemild: tell him that being a senator is probably more fun than being a president, anyway. Being a maverick senator is fun. Being a maverick president is risky.

Christopher said...

Is it at all conceivable that a candidate up by an average of 7.5 points would lose this election? My worry side is driving me nuts. PLEASE PLEASE let this be over.

Dr. Matt said...

"mccain is coming to my town this afternoon. is there anything someone here wants me to tell him?*"
~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Tell him he pals around tax evaders.

2much2lose said...

I just can't believe that in this day and age we would need to "protect" voters. Those darn republicans are despicable.

rodrett said...

I'm pretty giddy over Liddy getting no pity in NC.

Dr. Matt said...

New FOX News Poll Shows Obama Leading McCain 50-43

Ouch

shadowguidex said...

Hahaha. Drudge has a picture of Obama scratching his face, and it looks like he's giving the finger. The caption reads: Obama congratulates McCain. Drudge is just a total douchebag.

beek said...

"RCP has O @ 7.5"

That's because the ludicrous FIX poll has finally been kicked out of the average.

bubba said...

Anyone who is a fan of the Daily Show knows that what Obama is doing on Matt Drudge's page is called "Blanguage". It's hilarious....

Dr. Matt said...

Blogger shadowguidex said...
Hahaha. Drudge has a picture of Obama scratching his face, and it looks like he's giving the finger. The caption reads: Obama congratulates McCain. Drudge is just a total douchebag.
~~~~~~~~~~~~

Desperation. The Reich-wing KKKonservative movement...is....over...

Amen.

winniechili said...

I wish I had disposable income, cause if I did, there's a shitload of Brett's photos I would want to buy.

Woe is me.

2much2lose said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Dr. Matt said...

winniechili said...
I wish I had disposable income, cause if I did, there's a shitload of Brett's photos I would want to buy.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Ask joe the non-plumber for a loan. He's apparently "rich" enough to buy a 250,000 business on a 35k/year salary

rodrett said...

Drudge is a fudge-packer. I'm sure no sirens are necessary for that little tidbit.

matador said...

looks like in Ohio is all up to the youth vote:

Final SUSA Ohio: Obama 48%, McCain 46%. From the poll release: "In Ohio, Early Voters May Give Obama Enough Running Head Start That McCain Can't Catch Him on Election Day: Barack Obama 48%, John McCain 46%, in SurveyUSA's final tracking poll released Election Eve. Obama leads 5:3 among those who have already voted. McCain leads 5:4 among those who have not yet voted. Obama led in the past 3 SurveyUSA tracking polls, but by tapering margins. Obama led by 5 on 10/14/08, by 4 on 10/28/08 and by 2 today. It is possible that McCain could overtake Obama in the final 24 hours, but that would require young voters to stay home on Election Day and white voters from Dayton, Cincinnati and along the West Virginia border to show up in larger numbers than they have so far indicated."

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReportEmail.aspx?g=61b6fcb1-8e09-4434-864a-8818b10b1661

so,please joung Ohioans (??? am I correct):
stand up and vote !

Doug B said...

.

A must-read


.

Real Joe said...



Intrade Obama 92

Doug B said...

@2much2lose,

>Yes, tell him thanks for picking Palin. It made an Obama win possible.

No, an Obama win was always possible. Picking Palin made it inevitable.

matador said...

On the Road: I-4 Corridor, Florida

###########

this is DCM in FL territory !

Hayduke said...

My productivity is total crap today. Tomorrow will be worse. Wednesday will be hungover and writing a fantasy concession speach for McCain (for benefit of GOP co-workers).

Could I be causing this whole recession thing by squandering my days on 538 (again)?

Dr. Matt said...

Blogger Doug B said...

@2much2lose,

>Yes, tell him thanks for picking Palin. It made an Obama win possible.

No, an Obama win was always possible. Picking Palin made it inevitable.
~~~~~~~~~~~~

I'll add....picking Palin made it much easier. Obama was able to stay positive, while oSarah bin Palin raged and spewed vile lies to an enraged, chest thumping reich-wing base.

Dead Cat Bounce said...

ROFLOL at the comments on the Fox Poll page. The wingnuts are bashing Fox's own poll as being liberal-biased.

Mason said...

shadowguidex said...
So, I WAS planning to watch election coverage tomorrow night on MSNBC, but looking at their plans with lame lit up ice rinks, and other gimmicks, I'm thinking I need to tune in to another network. What should I do, CNN? ABC? I need a no nonsense network that doesn't turn our democracy into a gimmick.


Watch Fox News for the camp! It will be like watching people watch a horror movie!

CloudyFuture said...

Dr. Matt said...
New FOX News Poll Shows Obama Leading McCain 50-43

Ouch
+++++++++++++++++++++

I think someone also said its the first time palin favorable rating dropped under 50% as well....Its now 45-49....

Hope free republic (or what ever that website that was I saw here last night) dont freak out over that....wonder if they boycott foxnews....

SP said...

Any 538ers going to the Manassas rally tonight??

Between having to walk the dogs, traffic and the fact that I can probably recite the Obama speech word for word, no.

Besides, I have my priorities straight - not missing Warren Sapp's dancing, not even for BHO.

Nick said...

Tampa Bay is gonna lead the way for a Blue America!

Real Joe said...

FOX news is in the tank for Obama

Real Joe said...

LOL

matador said...

Real Joe said...
FOX news is in the tank for Obama

November 3, 2008 12:40 PM

##########

Obama surge ???

Dead Cat Bounce said...

Real Joe said...

FOX news is in the tank for Obama


The sad thing is that some people on that comment thread appear to sincerely believe that now.

Milly said...

wv=schoom, the sound McCain/Palin heard at "that one" passed them in the polls.

Sharon said...

Glad I found this web site! I love you guys, even though in grad school I took statistics and dropped it three times before I finally passed with a very raggedy C, I am a big fan and really like the way you attend to details where bias is concerned. Hope you do write a book, I will buy it.

Uma said...

Updated Poll Pool

I took all current 13 national polls in RCP and computed the results considering it one grand poll (all participants put together) which amounts to giving each poll a weight proportional to its number of participants (thus minimizing the overall MOE). RCP gives each poll the same weight regardless of the number of participants. Here are my results:

Number of participants: 17,901
Obama Percentage: 52.14% (MOE=0.75%)
McCain Percentage: 44.47% (MOE=0.75%)
Obama ahead of McCain by: 7.68% (MOE<1.49%)

The second line shows that Obama's margin above 50% is a statistical certainty. The last line shows that his leading McCain by more than 3 points is a statistical certainty.

rodrett said...

I live in Florida and am very glad that Obama does not need its electoral votes to win. I'm hoping Florida goes blue but...

CP Jen said...

As a statistician (for a living) I love this site. But, I also like these "human interest" stories. They're like a lovely brain massage in between the work outs...

Thanks and I hope it keeps up!

Charles M. Kozierok said...

Uh yeah.. Fox News is in the tank for Obama. LOL

Boy, Wednesday is going to be one VERY amusing news day!

Those Gallup numbers are truly excellent and confirm that unless all of the pollsters are way off the mark, this is over.

--
Wondering what to do after the election?

I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.

If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)

Sedi said...

"What should I do, CNN? ABC? I need a no nonsense network that doesn't turn our democracy into a gimmick."

If you get it, the choice is simple and obvious: HD Net. Why? Well, Dan Rather, who is hosting, is fine, but one Mr. Nate Silver, proprietor of a quality online election analysis site, will be a part of their coverage. I don't know exactly how big of a role Nate will have, but that one factor alone settles the matter for me. Even a little bit of Nate's analysis is worth heaps of the crap that most analysts offer up.

Mason said...

Any 538ers going to the Manassas rally tonight??
I thought about it, but I'm not going to go. I'm not even a real fake VAian, but I'd rather stay home and watch the 'Skins than sit in traffic on 95/66/Beltway.

John from Edinburgh said...

Regarding Lewis Hamilton's F1 win yesterday, I noticed that the last British driver to win F1 was Damon Hill in 1996.

Prior to that it was Nigel Mansell in 1992.

The previuos winner was James Hunt in 1976.

Notice anything interesting about the dates: 1976, 1992, 1996, and (hopefully) 2008?

Foregone Conclusion said...

dmitry said...

These lawyers need to get a life.

On the contrary, they are out there defending democracy and being true heroes. We, on the other hand, are commenting to a thread no-one will ever read in a pointless act of self gratification.

requicat: a piece of paperwork necessary for voting in some states. Context: 'over five hundred Democrats were turned away from the polls on November 4th because their requicat was incorrectly designated.'

Dead Cat Bounce said...

I'm watching Fox. The over-under on exploded craniums is currently 3.5.

Dr. Matt said...

Tampa McCain rally: Where is everybody?

About 30 minutes before John McCain is scheduled to lead a rally outside Raymond James Stadium, looks like there's maybe 1,000 people here. What's up with that? On the day before the election? Bush drew at least 15,000 people to a rally just across the street on the Sunday before the 2004 election.

"We are the quiet majority that goes out and gets things done. ... I smell victory,'' said state Rep. Kevin Ambler. Good thing he smells it, because it's hard to see it with this crowd.

http://blogs.tampabay.com/buzz/2008/11/tampa-tampa-ral.html

Dr. Matt said...

Dead Cat Bounce said...
ROFLOL at the comments on the Fox Poll page. The wingnuts are bashing Fox's own poll as being liberal-biased.
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

They are imploding. We'll see the same thing tomorrow night on Faux. I can't wait.

beek said...

"The sad thing is that some people on that comment thread appear to sincerely believe that now."

You have to go there - these comments are h-i-l-a-r-i-o-u-s.

One nugget:
"obama gets almost one third of the electoral votes need - CA and NY. Seems a little unfair and UNBALANCED to me."
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/03/fox-news-poll-obama-leads-going-election-day/comments/

Bobby said...

Am I the only one that is a little suspicious at the credibility of some of the polls. Notice how today some of the openly partisan but public national polls all seem to be converging to the mean the day before the election? Were they cooking polls to try and drive the narrative? But with a day to go you need to maintain credibility so now you have to release correct numbers. Not saying it is so but it does make you wonder.

Dead Cat Bounce said...

Damn, that list of RCP poll numbers has got be depressing if you're McCain. Even the GOP-leaners are +5 or better.

My guess is GOP turnout is going to be down across the board. The wingnuts will be out, but the casual voters are going to stay home.

Kenny Johnson said...

538 mentioned in NPR's Planet Money blog:

http://www.npr.org/blogs/money/2008/11/nyt_vs_nyt.html

Dr. Matt said...

One nugget:
"obama gets almost one third of the electoral votes need - CA and NY. Seems a little unfair and UNBALANCED to me."
http://elections.foxnews.com/2008/11/03/fox-news-poll-obama-leads-going-election-day/comments/
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~

Waaaaaah, if they don't like it...move....

Becky Sharp said...

I'm looking forward to see the repubs descend into acrimony and tear themselves apart

Also looking forward to the new cabinet:

Secretary of State: Richardson
AG: RFK Jr or Hillary
Defense: ?

linge: very small underwear

Aidan MT4 said...

A nice collection of election-day widgets:

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2008/10/30/election-results-electora_n_139361.html

Someone here said PBS was pretty good for analysis after the debates.

Joe The Fake Virginian said...

re: Going to Manassas Rally

I will watch on my television so that I can hit the F5 button like a good 538-er.

sfergus483 said...

There is a fairly wide consensus that Robert Gates may stay on as Sec'y of Defense at least for the short term. Who knows if it will happen (things are about to get very complicated in Iraq irrespective of the election).

rodrett said...

538.com why can't I quit you?

nieddu said...

A single-digit race in Alaska? Hotlist
by kos
Mon Nov 03, 2008 at 10:45:03 AM PST

Alaskan pollster Hayes Research has some crazy numbers:

Hayes Research (D). 11/2. Likely voters. MoE 4.9% (No recent results)

McCain (R) 46.6
Obama (D) 43.9

Dead Cat Bounce said...

They are imploding. We'll see the same thing tomorrow night on Faux. I can't wait.

They're turning on each other now. This is just a taste of what's going to happen after the election. It's going to be a long, cold winter for the GOP methinks.

Blame said...

Nate.

Isn't it about time that your model admitted that there just isn't going to be any late tightening of the polls.

All I see is Obama slowly but steadily gaining and McCain yoyoing between about 42 an 44. The rest is noise.

As things stand RealClearPolitics is going to need an extention to it's chart. It only runs to 52% and Obama has just hit 51.7%

SP said...

Mason, are you rooting for the Skins to win? You do know about the correlation between Skins winning and the incumbent party candidate getting elected, right?

Matt said...

PPP teaser on Missouri:

"A poll that's tied the day before the election is like kissing your sister so we're going to take the unusual step of releasing that poll out to decimal points...should be up within half an hour."

http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2008/11/missouri.html

"gentarma": A codpiece.

Darío said...

Final RCP average:

RCP Average 10/29 - 11/02 -- -- 51.7 44.2 Obama +7.5

With third parties is Obama +7.5


In 2004 the RCP average was Bush +1.5 and Bush WON by 1.5

Becky Sharp said...

Gallup is the only pollster sticking its neck out right now. The others have all gone mushy - worried about their legacy - converging on the mean

@nieddu
Nice thought about Alaska - but seriously if Obama wins there I'd run down Main Street Fairbanks naked! Ain't going to happen.

unglygat: what makes the bubbles in bubble gum

Erik Nilsson said...

Incidentally, they are already counting early/absentee ballots in Florida. (The results are supposed to be secret. The rules for this are obtuse....) The earliest results reported in Florida will in most cases be these early results, which will heavily favor Obama. This may lead to a certain amount of confusion tomorrow. Take early Florida results and predictions with a grain of salt.

VW I Ching: snessent: McCain's GOTV effort is becoming this.

Jane said...

Any way to get Nate/Rather via livestream? Never tried politics, but lots of sports that way.

apologize if a double post. I actually am LTLFTP here.

CloudyFuture said...

SP said...
Mason, are you rooting for the Skins to win? You do know about the correlation between Skins winning and the incumbent party candidate getting elected, right?
+++++++++++++++++

Well I do since I watched ESPN this morning....

the redskins winning means mccain wins and pitt winning means Obama wins...

redskins winning the week of the election means that the reigning party stays in control of the White House. The redskins losing means the reigning party loses the white house and has been correct every election cycle except for one 1988).... or something like that....

Mark Irish said...

What do you guys think is a good percentage spread for Obama after Indiana's first polls close. By that I mean this:

The eastern part of Indiana closes at 6PM. This is McCain's strong part of the state, and Obama's stronghold of NW Indiana doesn't close until 7PM. If the polls are at 40-60 at 7PM, do you think the NW will vote strong enough for Obama for him to take the lead, or will it have to be closer to 45-55?

What are your guys' thoughts.

Aidan MT4 said...

Re Robert Gates: I want some bipartisanship in an Obama administration (more than Bush's token gestures, like Secretary of Transportation) but not to the point of diluting core Democratic beliefs. However complicated Iraq is, I am certain there are qualified Democrats who will be able to take over at quick notice. Although Gates is somewhat less rebarbative than other Bush cabinet officials, Defense is an area that now needs a strong leftist presence. Gone are the days when Clinton felt it necessary to shore up his warmongering credentials by hiring a moderate Republican for the job.

Mark Edelstein said...

Re: Election coverage

The CBC.

Yes sensible Canadian livefeed is what you should strive for. Their debate coverage even lacked silly squiggly lines, though the American pundits brought in were third string.

messea...ah the feeling of any political addict like me. Despite enjoying living in a country with an equitable distribution of health care, paper ballots, national same day registration, entrenchment of non-discrimination and collective bargaining, and a liberal party I can vote for in alternative to an actual social democratic party, I do envy this mess of a campaign. The Canadian one was more sensible but far less interesting. Also I hope the American outcome is better.

Blame said...

becky

"Nice thought about Alaska - but seriously if Obama wins there I'd run down Main Street Fairbanks naked! Ain't going to happen."

Aww Im too far away to watch in person... but some kind persom might uplink the video *drool*.

Hector A. Maquieira said...

"I need a no nonsense network that doesn't turn our democracy into a gimmick."

PBS is the only choice then.

Honestly, all the cable news networks are crap. I mean, all MSNBC does is contradict Fox, and since Fox News is probably the most incoherent and absurd thing I have ever watched, well contradicting them doesn't make much sense either.

Seriously, sometimes I get angry that people watch MSNBC/FOX/CNN over PBS. Can't you just instantly tell by the lack of irrelevant gimmicky crap that PBS is superior?

BBC can also be a good alternative although my personal tastes direct me to prefer PBS.

Mason said...

SP-
It didn't work for Kerry, now did it?

I know they're going to win, though. I know football beacuse I can see FedEx Field from my cube.

counsellorben said...

Dmitry said "These lawyers need to get a life"

Awww, poow widdle Dmitwy, hims upset that thousands of lawyers (like me), law students and other legal professionals are willing to volunteer their time to help people vote.  The primary objective for those of us working in voter protection is to assist voters and poll workers so that all eligible voters can cast their ballots.

Seriously, Dmitry, is that the best you have?  I'm cringing.  /snark

glig said...

livemild said...


mccain is coming to my town this afternoon. is there anything someone here wants me to tell him?*
==================================
==================================

I'd go easy on him. He's going to get roasted and toasted tomorrow.

Tell him he's a good man but he simply shouldn't be president.

Milly said...

wv=crudic, the word uttered by McCain as the votes are tallied.

What sites (apart from this of course) would you recommend as worthy of looking at tomorrow for the results.

I still can't see Alaska from my house!

Redshift said...

Any 538ers going to the Manassas rally tonight??

Ms. Redshift and a friend are going. I've got too much Election Day prep to do, plus I want to get to bed at a decent hour before getting up at 4:30am.

Sedi said...

"Any way to get Nate/Rather via livestream?"

I don't know. When Nate appeared on Dan Rather Reports last week he put up the video here soon after it aired. Streaming is a bit different, though. I'm guessing that Nate will make an announcement about this soon.

matador said...

Becky Sharp said...

Also looking forward to the new cabinet:

Secretary of State: Richardson
AG: RFK Jr or Hillary
Defense: ?


November 3, 2008 12:54 PM

###########

Defense: Real Joe ?

is this the Real Joe's surprise ?

Real Joe=Colin Powell ?

:P

Mason said...

Besides SP-
If you think sports decide everything, Obama is already screwed. The Lakers made the finals during an election year. That means the GOP will get/keep the White House.

realistxxx said...

Check out the graph on the RCP National Average. Obama is going through the roof!

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html

Tightening???? It appears the Republican definition of tightening is about as accurate as their definitions of patriotism, socialism, security, terrorism, prosperity, peace, freedom, democracy...


wv: plowaks... I got nothing.

beek said...

Hays had Obama up by 5 in Alaska in August. Not very likely.

Matt said...

Strategic Vision polls...

Pennsylvania
O: 51
M: 44

Washington
O: 55
M: 40

Gregoire leads Rossi 50-48

Wisconsin
O: 53
M: 40

Florida, Ohio and Georgia later today.

Voice of the Midwest said...

Got a peek at the Mason Dixon and R2000 polls for Arizona from 10/28 and 10/29, respectively.

Both miss on two fronts when it comes to proper crosstabs: minorities and first timers. They are in the ballpark on most everything else.

Factor in the correct balance on minorities and first timers, and McCain may want to consider retirement before a Senate run in 2010.

I have always said Arizonans have been looking for an opportunity to vote against this guy.

Joseph Wright said...

Pew has Obama at 52 and McCain 46. I'm a hardcore sceptic, but for once I'm going to take a risk and say it's over! If not I'll eat my hat.

DCM in FL said...

SEAN

glad you got to visit the GOTV in Daytona Beach while in FL

maybe next time you will drop into it's neighbor to the south also in Volusia County, New Symrna Beach

I am on my way into the local DEM HQ in a few minutes

will WILL turn FL at least pale BLUE - YES WE CAN !!!

thanks for all you guys do

hope you will continue to share your road trip experiences even after tomorrow

TBender said...

Hector:

I watch CNN because I like to see how many people they can cram onto that set.

Plus, Bill Bennett's ability to morph into Leslie Sanchez is quite impressive.

PA John said...

Strategic Vision polls...

Pennsylvania
O: 51
M: 44


That would be Obama +2 from their poll last week.

McCain SURGE!!

CloudyFuture said...

Mason said...
Besides SP-
If you think sports decide everything, Obama is already screwed. The Lakers made the finals during an election year. That means the GOP will get/keep the White House.
++++++++++++

damn....its all over then....get ready to say it people President mccain....

Still I will root for pitt just to be safe lol....besides get to watch the haltime show with Berman, mccain and Obama....

Redshift said...

mccain is coming to my town this afternoon. is there anything someone here wants me to tell him?

That after this election is over, the country would like an apology for his campaign.

DanP said...

Nate is the headline story on MSNBC.COM at the moment...

Big time!

Becky Sharp said...

@real joe
Not quite final RCP poll. No IBD yet.

@blame
OK - its a promise - if Obama wins AK I'll send you the vid too!It won't happen!
Best chance for a shock is Georgia or Montana

@dumtour - McCain wasting his time in PA!

Milly said...

wv=vochaire, disabled voters

Guardian UK gives Nate kudos.

But, seriously, who doesn't?

PA John said...

PPP Missouri Results

Barack Obama 49.4
John McCain 48.6

SP said...

Damn that Kerry. He had to screw up the Skins' pefect predictive record. Not that I put much faith in these coinkydinks, but the way the Skins have played the last couple of games, I would not at all be upset if they got their butt handed to them. But then, I can't stand the Steelers.

rodrett said...

Bin Laden tape in.

He said he absolutely loves Palin and thinks she would be a wonderful suicide bomber.

He also said Jews should never be allowed to vote after sundown.

Matt said...

@pa john - Largest leads for this pollster in WA and WI as well. Looks like Obama is pulling away.

S said...

Fox News/Rass

Virginia
O-51
M-47

Colorado
O-51
M-47

Missouri
O-49
M-49

Ohio
O-49
M-49

North Carolina
0-49
M-50

Florida
0-49
M-50

Mr. Independent said...

If Strategic Vision (a Republican pollster) says Obama is ahead by 7 in PA, then Obama is going to win PA. End of story.

That PPP missouri result is looking decent. I think that Obama might actually pull out a squeaker in Missouri.

One$Earned said...

@ dcm...

Way to Go! Pale Blue works.

I like the energy which is much
different than yesterday.

sfergus483 said...

Note for anyone who watches the raw votes on Prop 8 in CA tomorrow - LA County ALWAYS comes in last - every single one of the 4 million + ballots is counted in one downtown location. That means each precinct sends it to one area center, then they get either helicoptered or driven to the site.

It usually means a 2 hour or longer delay before they are counted.

The state gets counted very fast - usually we have most results in by 11:30 PT - but keep this in mind as you watch the raw numbers.

John David said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Michael said...

RASMUSSEN SWING STATE POLLS
Just released on FOX.

OH: TIE 49-49
FL: M 50-49
NC: M 50-49
CO: O 51-47
VA: O 51-47
MO: TIE 49-49

I saw these numbers for a split second, I could be wrong.

Obama is leading in 2 states, McCain in 2 states, and 2 ties.

Mr. Independent said...

the Fox/Ras number for Florida is a bit dissapointing, but hey Obama is doing well in all the other polls

S said...

Major Garrett Fox News ''Obama campaign believes they will win North Carolina mainly cause of early voting, The tie in the polling has nothing to do with the polls now''


So if a lot of these polls don't count in the early vote. This race is over.

Mason said...

Nate-
Re: CA Prop 8

"If Obama appears as though he's headed toward a landslide victory, crestfallen conservatives might not bother heading for the polls to vote against Prop 8."

Did you mean "vote for Prop 8"?

WV:Anthill. Lame.

PA John said...

Rass has been all over the place with FLA and NC.

rodrett said...

I wish endlessly that Obama win Florida but alas my state is too rednecky.

Charles M. Kozierok said...

"I'm watching Fox. The over-under on exploded craniums is currently 3.5."

LOL.

Are there even 3.5 functional craniums in the entire place, though? :)

--
Wondering what to do after the election?

I am starting a new board for discussing politics, current events and other interesting topics. It is a spin-off of the blog that some of you know about; you can read an overview of the forum here.

If interested, follow the instructions at the bottom to contact me. Brain-dead right-wing trolls need not apply. :)

Jerry056 said...

@s

Those Rasmussen numbers are great because given Ras's 2-3 point Republican LEAN Obama would seem to have a small but decisive lead in each state.

myrmecos said...

Dear Brett,

Lovely photos. I mean that. But, you should probably clean your sensor before taking too many more.

Cheers,

Alex

One$Earned said...

I voted today...45 minute wait in
a village (Brown Deer) just north of
Milwaukee WI. Population ~12,000.
Poll open at 8:00cst and a steady
line of people (when I left at 9:00
there were approx. 60 people in
line).

My town will see approx. 85% turnout
with probably a 55/45 split for
Obama.

Badgerhair said...

Can anyone dream up a scenario in which Hawaii becomes the decider?

Becky Sharp said...

Kerry + VA, NM, CO and IA still looking very likely. That's enough isn't it?

consupip: lemon soup, unstrained?

Real Joe said...

badgerhair said...
Can anyone dream up a scenario in which Hawaii becomes the decider?


LOL

chgoblue said...

OMG, these losers are actually complaining that Obama will win NY and CA? McWar could have campaigned there..seeing how he has spent the last 2 weeks in PA has helped immensely..oh, wait.

Not having to hear shrill trailer trash barbie's voice after tomorrow is EXCELLENT news for the ENTIRE Country!

One$Earned said...

@badgerhair...

No. The only way you can dream up
that scenario is that you would also
have to dream up a scenario that DC
is the decider. An impossibility.

But the 3 EV's each certainly help
from both areas.

hermance said...

@ haydude, why not volunteer at your local party office, even if just for an hour or two? Then you will feel productive. I know our local office still needs lots of folks for tomorrow.

And whoever was asking, watch PBS tomorrow night. I can’t stand David Brooks, either, but he’s no worse than the shills on the other channel. And you don’t get any of the stupid graphics and light shows that are part of all of the other networks. Plus, the historians have been hysterical this election, seriously.

Pat Andriola said...

Those Ras numbers are just fine. You can probably give Obama +1, and considering he has to win just 1 out of all of those, then it's good, especially considering that Obama is once again over 50% in his strongholds, VA and CO.

wv: unfie. switch the 'f' and the 'i' and you have what president obama will do after tomorrow.

CloudyFuture said...

not digging those rass polls....though seems like fox is pushing those just as msnbc is pushing m-d to pump up the race....Man I just hope its called early....

Bex of Ambridge said...

Becky!!

Tell me you'll be on here tomorrow. Am seriously considering a US trip to come and see you...

I'm that far gone that Georgia wouldn't be a huge surprise for me, not after all we've heard about the AA turnout.

Shock of the day for my money? Texas, with those glorious 34 votes. It COULD happen. Ok about 1 in 200 chance but still...

Mason said...

One$Earned-
Hawaii has 4 EV.

One district is the urban areas of Oahu. The other is the rest of the state. Oddity: The rep from the 1st district need not live in the district per the law of the State of Hawai'i .

emeds: virtual doctors

PA John said...
This post has been removed by the author.
Becky Sharp said...

Bex!!!

I'm on here tomorrow!!!

unhuni: ex lover

John David said...

Those Rasmussen polls are too close for comfort.

McCain has to win all six of them, but if he wins Colorado and Virginia he'll probably win the other four.

DaWolf said...

Hawaii would be the decider in any very close election where Obama get's 266-269 EV's beforehand. An example would be Kerry+IA+NM+NV.

It's actually pretty easy to set it up.

realistxxx said...

Becky Sharp said...
Kerry + VA, NM, CO and IA still looking very likely. That's enough isn't it?

-----------

More than enough. If he takes Kerry+IA and NM then he needs Virginia OR Colorado... not both.

Sedi said...

"Can anyone dream up a scenario in which Hawaii becomes the decider?"

It depends on what you mean by this. Interpreted one way, yes, it's easy to envision such a situation. If Obama wins Kerry states -PA +VA +CO +NV then he wins narrowly (with 270, I believe). If all of the states are decisive wins on both sides, then technically HI, as the state who polls close last, becomes the decisive state. Of course, in such a close race every state is decisive, in a sense.

rodrett said...

Looks like a pattern with the FLA Ras polling numbers.

David said...

Instead of hitting refresh on this site for an hour join me in calling voters for Obama. You can do it from home.

http://www.barackobama.com/index.php

and click make calls in the upper right hand corner. Real straightforward. I challenge you to only hit refresh after each call :)

Potion said...

Florida is going BLUE, believe it! I-4 corridor counter balances quite nicely the hicks in the (more) rural areas.

~FL PUMA (A real one, thank you kindly, and voting Obama, Kosmas, and Grayson!)

WV: monmul. I'm too fried this close to the election; I got nothing.

Li said...

What should I do, CNN? ABC? I need a no nonsense network that doesn't turn our democracy into a gimmick.

C-SPAN.

PA John said...

Rass last 6 NC polls:

10/12: Tie
10/19: O+3
10/23: M+2
10/26: M+1
10/29: O+2
11/3: M+1

Florida
10/12: O+5
10/19: M+1
10/26: O+4
11/3: M+1

Rasmussen hasn't been able to get a consistent reading from these 2 states and all things considered take with a grain of salt.

markymark said...

I haven't noticed anyone save for McCain partisans predicting even a close election for a while.

rodrett said...

potion, hope you're right.

Bex of Ambridge said...

Who's been GOTVing today - any good stories or news?

I'm so excited I can barely sit still - goodness only knows what it must be like if you actually live in the US...

achedism: sincere belief in the power of cheese

CloudyFuture said...

PA John said...
Rass last 6 NC polls:

10/12: Tie
10/19: O+3
10/23: M+2
10/26: M+1
10/29: O+2
11/3: M+1

Florida
10/12: O+5
10/19: M+1
10/26: O+4
11/3: M+1

Rasmussen hasn't been able to get a consistent reading from these 2 states and all things considered take with a grain of salt.
+++++++++++

Hmm thanks for that....that is interesting...I still can not see Obama winning NC but I got a good feeling about FL....Hope he wins both though...

rodrett said...

Anybody know if Obama's aunt will get to vote absentee tomorrow?

DaWolf said...

@cloudy future

I'm convinced Obama will win North Carolina thanks to early voting.

Florida I would rate 50/50 and I'm pessimistic about Ohio.

rodrett said...

Special shout out to...

pa john and antmatic.

These two always bring the poll numbers.

markymark said...

sedi,

I think if enough states are very tight, its vaguely possible that calling Hawaii might gove the election to Obama. But I think that is highly, highly unlikely. Places like Pa, Fl, Oh, Mo, would have to be knife edge, recount style elections. And frankly, as much as the thought of Hawaii giving the Presidency has a pleasing resonance to it, I would prefer it to be over well before then.

broberts said...

Does CSPAN offer any coverage?

Bex of Ambridge said...

dawolf:

I'm pessimistic about Ohio too. Don't know why, but have been for ages. Am much more optimistic about far more unlikely states, namely Missouri and Indiana. My gut (so reliable lol) tells me Ohio's going red. Of course I hope I'm wrong.

wv: sualiqu: A moving speech distorted and turned upside down. See also: Palin, Sarah.

Antmatic said...

The Rasmussen numbers told us what we already know:

OH / FL / MO / NC will come down to turnout. OH looks bluer than FL at this point (QPAC agrees). Obama could win all of these states, win 2 of them, or lose all of them, frankly.

Obama is strong in CO and VA. And IA. And NM. And PA.

Potion said...

rodrett said...
potion, hope you're right.
----

Why else do you think the GOP here is so angry with Crist? LOL! Jeb Bush's yes man my arse!

Despite Crist & Co succeeding in pushing our primary in front of the allowable date, and early voter purge requests, he is now vilified for extending early voting hours.

I have no idea how bad it will be tomorrow, but the hubby and I will be in line after work tomorrow to vote, no matter how long it takes.

~FL PUMA

Antmatic said...

I think PPP has the best read on NC.

Regarding FL, I'll take Mason Dixon and Quinnippiac.

Blame said...

potion

A monmul is deformed mule like creature. Said to be the result of a donkey getting too friendly with elephants. Very rare. Only known example is Leberman.

Ribalding said...

Bex asked: "Who's been GOTVing today - any good stories or news?"

----------------------------------

I was phone-banking likely Houston voters this morning at my local HQ. 30 minutes in, a guy answered on his cell and said 'hang on, I'm in my car'. When he came back on the line, I identified myself and he just started laughing.

"Dude, I'm on my way in to the office you're sitting in, to pick up my poll-watcher packet!"

Oops.


P.S.- I met him, 10 minutes later. Nice guy. Labor lawyer.

Ben A. said...

All the FL, OH, NC, and MO tells me is that it's going to be about turn out.Turn out turn out turn out... that's it baby... something tells me there's going to be some depressed Republican turn out this year. It's always better to be voting FOR someone vs. AGAINST someone... NO ONE is voting for McCain... the only people that would have been jumped the Obama expresses the second he picked Palin. The Repub base has never liked McCain.

I'm driving people to the polls all day tomorrow in PA. I'm stoked.

Forcefield said...

NC is blue this year, ya'll. I'm headed out to canvas now.

wv: wthili : NC will be mccain's athili's heel this year.

newsinOH said...

Maybe we should have groups of AA voters (who already voted) stand around white republican polling locations with binoculars and clipboards.

Hey, if it worked to scare off minority voters, maybe it can work in reverse!!! Then we'd see how quickly the Repubs cried foul . .

kittles93 said...

I believe Obama will win NC, lose FL in squeakers.

It comes down to Virginia and Colorado, though. And Obama will win both of them.

newsinOH said...

One of the things on my wishlist for 2009:

Any and all federal money to Alaska is cut off since their governor just despises pork.

Bex of Ambridge said...

@ribalding:

That is a brilliant story!!

Lol.

chanelmi said...

@newsinoh...I did think about it..particularly in Grosse Pointe Farms, MI...you know the lady who would not give candy to kids whose parents supported Obama.

Becky Sharp said...

Anyone still got their panties in a bunch over PA? Looks very solid this morning!

nonsensso: Italians puzzled about Palin

markymark said...

Ohio is one state with an effective GOP still. I personally think Obama will still take the state, but at a time when the GOP in general seems to be in serious trouble across the nation, Ohio is one state were the party doesn't seem to be in cardiac arrest.

other Michael said...

new thread

Milly said...

wv=clatio. The name of the new tragedy that Shakespeare would wrtie about the McCain campaign if he was alive today.

I never, ever want to hear another word about Joe the Plumber after this election!

marco said...

Folks, there were long lines for early voting even here in ARIZONA!

Despite all the tightening polls here I still think AZ is a long shot for Obama (which doesn't mean I'm not hoping for a BIG SURPRISE)!

Dead Cat Bounce said...

Yeesh, Obama has a huge lead in the polls today, and people are still wringing their hands.

McCain can't win without PA and VA, and he can't win PA and VA. It's just not possible for so many different polls to be so wrong for an entire month.

Stick a fork in it, and look forward to all the spluttering and disbelief on Fox tomorrow night.

newsinOH said...

new thread

SHERWICK said...

"chgoblue said...
OMG, these losers are actually complaining that Obama will win NY and CA."

That can't be right because only yesterday petekent was saying that McCain would win CA and NY.
:/

markymark said...

So America is about to elect an African American as President and a Catholic as Vice President, both firsts. I am getting more and more confident almost by the minute. Not arrogantly confident, but just certain that this is going to happen.

Beckee said...

Sorry to change the subject, but does anyone know if there has been any recent polling in the VA 5 House race between Perriello and Goode?

wv: ilyai, as in I will feel really ilyai if McCain wins PA.

David C. Uhrig said...

Hey Nate a small error in your article: "The key area to watch in Montana is Washoe County (Reno),..." Washoe County (and Reno) are in Nevada, not Montana.

rentonite said...

Since it's the day before the election, now is probably a fine time to admit that, as an Obama supporter, I click on every McCain internet ad that I see, especially here on 538. Costs McCain money for the click, and, in 538's case, it's like tipping Nate for his great work. :)

hi ho said...

Doctormclovin -- Yes! a coffee table book by christmas! It's on my wish list too.

waddaya think Nate, Sean, Brett? Do you have enough turn around time?

Jerry said...

I really hope you Democrat PIGS will be happy when a socialist is in the White House! Obama is the most liberal member of the Senate! He borders on socialism and will do nothing but raise taxes and make us weak in the eyes of the rest of the world by bowing down to and kissing the asses of the terrorist dictators that are just drooling at the thought of the U. S. having a weak liberal, limp-wristed commander-in-chief!

At 58, I am a life long Republican and proud of my conservative beliefs. I will admit that John McCain is probably the weakest candidate the GOP could have run but a weak John McCain is better any day then the socialistisc, liberal, raise your taxes Obama! My God, I truly dislike that man (Obama)!

Mark my words, my fellow Americans by the time the polls close tomorrow night, America will begin to embark on a new course that could possibly end the freedoms and rights that so many gave their lives for. We still have a chance for true change (and it's not with socialist Obama!) for the better. Cast your ballot tomorrow for the true protector of your freedoms and rights, John McCain!

SeattleSusieQ said...

The Republicans can still steal it - again. It only takes a few strategic electronic voting machine vote-flips and voila. Faster than you can say "Chambliss beats Cleland", McCain could have his "upset".

I'm still holding my breath.

zgbethie said...

my first comment although I have been reading this site every day for months.

here are some GOTV stories for y'all. Indianapolis was totally overrun with volunteers this weekend. my IL district sent around 500 people and they were running out of canvass packets at 2 different offices. in Gary they are now telling people *not* to come if they have not signed up already-- they will have more volunteers than voters if the deluge keeps up. basically here in Illinois we are emptying the state of Dems each morning as everyone heads across the closest border to GOTV.

I have a very young child so I can't go very often, but I've been helping run a phone bank these last several days and while there have been called twice by other phone bank volunteers and asked if I will phone bank. last week when our phone bank was recruiting lawyers for the voter protection efforts, one of our dialers reached Obama's operations chief (I guess he must be a lawyer). he thanked her for her hard work.

many of the people we called yesterday in PA, IN, and OH said it was the 5th or 6th time they'd been reached. I ran a phone bank in OH for a couple days during the primaries and it was the same. the size and reach of this thing is just unbelievable, and the remarkable thing is that it has been going strong for close to 2 years. I have the usual butterflies but I am really starting to think we are going to do this thing.

|The_fragile_99| said...

oh jerry don't be a wanker. Palin is a Christianist Fascist - be more afraid of her and Dobson than Obama.

Leigh said...

Brett, love those Grayton Beach pics--one of my fav places.

John in Edinburgh, great insight via the F1 results--what an incredible ending to yesterday's race/season!

信次 said...

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平平 said...

^^ nice blog!! ^@^

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平平 said...

^^ very nice

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酒店上班請找艾葳 said...

艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作兼差打工假日兼職兼職工作學生兼差兼差打工兼差日領工作晚上兼差工作酒店工作酒店上班酒店打工兼職兼差兼差工作酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作特種行業內容,想找打工假日兼職兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!

艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚,無業績壓力,無脫秀無喝酒壓力,高層次會員制客源,工作輕鬆,可日領現領
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已,對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有!艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪,不需擔心!只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。

水水們妳有缺現金、有卡債缺錢卡奴的煩腦嗎?想到日本留學日本打工嗎?妳是工讀生找工作??想要擁有高時薪又輕鬆的夜間兼職工作,打工機會和,假日打工,兼職工作日領假日打工的機會嗎??想實現夢想卻又缺錢沒錢嗎!??整天還在煩腦如何賺錢有什麼賺錢方法,和賺錢最快方法!?,想要打工,日領工作,短期打工,兼差工作,打工兼差工作嗎!?,
請加入我們艾葳酒店經紀公司工作單純輕鬆”高時薪”又可日領徵想要當傳播妹,上班小姐,酒店兼差,酒店兼職,歡迎學生打工,!!!
加入我們實現夢想就從現在開始^__^

freefun0616 said...

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