FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Omaha

11.04.2008

Omaha

by Nate Silver @ 10:50 PM

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Obama up by 5 points with about a quarter of the vote in.

36 comments

Jeremy said...: Chuck Todd pointed that out about 30 mins ago!; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
Bex of Ambridge said...: Oh splitting NE would be so much fun. It's almost worth sacrificing NC for.; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
Socrates said...: Obama lookin' good !; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
Kevin said...: So starting tomorrow, you'll find a new host for 538, right? Sad that I haven't been able to rely on timely updates from my favorite site on such a historic night.; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
pollock said...: barack omaha; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
William said...: They didn't say it, but I think CNN called Omaha for Obama. I saw Obama's count jump by one, inexplicably.; November 4, 2008 10:56 PM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: OH MA HA; November 4, 2008 10:57 PM
Vadim said...: Check out intrade.com
Franken is 95% on that site. He's done it! Indiana is blue, but North Carolina is pink. WOOOHOOO; November 4, 2008 10:57 PM
cm_mello said...: we're gonna flip tonight.

Jim Esch currently in dead heat to unseat Lee Terry in the House; November 4, 2008 10:57 PM
The Field Marshall said...: I would like to point out that our Wilson County, NC has yet to count a single presidential ballot. We may be the last county to start counting - after the other 99 counties are done. North Carolina's electoral votes may come down to us.; November 4, 2008 10:57 PM
Sedi said...: I'll admit that this isn't going to be exactly the map that I was expecting, but it's looking awfully good right now. Omaha would be the cherry on top.; November 4, 2008 10:58 PM
David said...: Might as well call FL. Most of the red countries are 90%+ reported. Palm Beach is 25% and Maimi-Dade is 75%.

Game over in FL.; November 4, 2008 10:58 PM
Colleen Smith said...: This is so exciting! I want to say "Thank you" to fivethirtyeight, I've been watching you guys for weeks.. so great! Thank you!; November 4, 2008 10:58 PM
William said...: One Minute...; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
David said...: "So starting tomorrow, you'll find a new host for 538, right? Sad that I haven't been able to rely on timely updates from my favorite site on such a historic night."

Calm down, Nate has another gig tonight(presumably a paying gig).; November 4, 2008 10:59 PM
epibeemie said...: Union General Joshua Chamberlain wrote about the last march of the Army of Northern Virginia, April 12, 1865 on their way to surrendering their arms:

...standing before us now, thin, worn, and famished, but erect, and with eyes looking level into ours, [were] waking memories that bound us together as no other bond;—was not such manhood to be welcomed back into a Union so tested and assured? Instructions had been given; and when the head of each division column comes opposite our group, our bugle sounds the signal and instantly our whole line from right to left, regiment by regiment in succession, gives the soldier's salutation, from the "order arms" to the old "carry"—the marching salute. Gordon at the head of the [Confederate] column, riding with heavy spirit and downcast face, catches the sound of shifting arms, looks up, and, taking the meaning, wheels superbly, making with himself and his horse one uplifted figure, with profound salutation as he drops the point of his sword to the boot toe; then facing to his own command, gives word for his successive brigades to pass us with the same position of the manual,—honor answering honor. On our part not a sound of trumpet more, nor roll of drum; not a cheer, nor word nor whisper of vain-glorying, nor motion of man standing again at the order, but an awed stillness rather, and breath-holding, as if it were the passing of the dead!

Salutes to Pete and other gents who stood their ground to the end. We will need your sharp-eyed opposition in the days and years ahead, sirs.

And let us all offer a whispered prayer of thanks (or for you athiests, a quick "whoa, man are we lucky") that we need not shed each other's blood to resolve our disagreements in America.

wv: thesath, which shall raz agayun, but as a fully two-party region; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
chelsea said...: I'm so proud of my district. We are officially Obamaha.; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
Ben said...: Oh god! Please say it is so! I was deathly afraid that my absentee ballot from Canada (fedexed overnight because the election commissioner took three damn weeks to send it!) would be cast in vain!

Maybe this would convince my Canadian wife that there is still hope for Omaha :); November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
PeteKent said...: NE is moving to McCain. he is now up 10 pts with 36% in.

ND, SD and NE will all go red.

FL, NC will got to him.

Fox called it for Obama with CA putting him over the top!; November 4, 2008 11:01 PM
Tom said...: what website are you guys tuning in for the latest stats other than this? i got cnn on right now; November 4, 2008 11:01 PM
William said...: It's over...

Hang on, I have something in my eye.; November 4, 2008 11:01 PM
David said...: MSNBC just called in in their breaking news header!

Congrats President-Elect Obama!; November 4, 2008 11:02 PM
David said...: "NE is moving to McCain. he is now up 10 pts with 36% in.

ND, SD and NE will all go red.

FL, NC will got to him.

Fox called it for Obama with CA putting him over the top!"

Dream on dipshit. Faux called CA before the polls closed so they would lose their last 5 viewers.; November 4, 2008 11:04 PM
David said...: Seriously Nate,

If you are going continue with this website, you need to change software. This blogger.com crap is third rate amateur hour.; November 4, 2008 11:05 PM
Kevin said...: "If you are going continue with this website, you need to change software. This blogger.com crap is third rate amateur hour."

Couldn't have said it better myself.; November 4, 2008 11:12 PM
David said...: Hang on everyone-It is still possible to hit 375!; November 4, 2008 11:18 PM
GrogzH said...: Why wasn't McCain this classy in his campaign?; November 4, 2008 11:27 PM
Lucas Wade German said...: Looks like he won Omaha!

http://www.votedouglascounty.com/meer/EL45.htm; November 5, 2008 1:01 AM
ninja_dawg said...: Omaha in the house!; November 5, 2008 1:29 AM
mvr said...: Went door to door in suburban Douglas county Sunday and today. It seemed somewhat thankless except for the fact that making notes of who would vote and for whom would help the next campaign. The spent an hour and a half at the end calling North Omaha until the polls closed. Every single person I reached had voted in that area which was largely African American voters. Even though we didn't tip the election, it made me feel pretty good about it.; November 5, 2008 1:53 AM
Luke said...: I'd like to point out that Omaha isn't the only city included in NE-2. There are also some suburbs which are part of the more Republican-leaning Sarpy County. However, this link http://www.sos.ne.gov/elec/2008/ElectNight/electoralcollegeresults.pdf provides the presidential vote broken down by congressional district, and Obama still seems to be holding on to a very very scant (~300 votes) lead right now in NE-2. Here's hoping it stays Obama blue!; November 5, 2008 2:01 AM
Ben said...: Great..... now Obama is behind in NE-02 by less than the number of votes that Nader got.

John McCain CG002 Republican 126303
Barack Obama CG002 Democrat 125734
Chuck Baldwin CG002 Nebraska 560
Cynthia McKinney CG002 Green 292
Bob Barr CG002 Libertarian 533
Ralph Nader CG002 By Petition 1502; November 5, 2008 9:18 AM
Torsten Adair said...: If the difference between Obama and McCain is less than 1% of the frontrunner's total (1,263 votes, using the above numbers), then there is an automatic recount.

But first, the absentee ballots must be counted.

Still, even if Obama doesn't win this EV, it's still a tremendous achievement in a burgundy state. Perhaps the success of Virginia can be replecated in Nebraska?; November 5, 2008 1:55 PM
Ben said...: They haven't counted the absentees yet? One of those is mine!

Thanks for the silver lining!; November 5, 2008 6:46 PM
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11.04.2008

Omaha

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