FiveThirtyEight: Politics Done Right: Obama to Become Next President

11.04.2008

Obama to Become Next President

by Nate Silver @ 9:46 PM

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310 comments

Becky Sharp said...: Don't even need Oregon now!!!!!

Team Obama Orgie anyone?!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Meghan said...: Thank you, Nate, for being a beacon of hope through this heart-wrenching process.; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
jo5ef said...: G'day from Australia; Way to go USA, knew ya could do it!; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Dr. Harmon said...: Note to the rest of the world... We look forward to joining the community of nations once again. The nightmare is over.; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
HI I AM DUCKMONSTER? said...: Good on you America. Almost the entire world is cheering Obama on and FINALLY you guys joined us on the "not evil" side of things.

And I'm feeling amazingly proud for your african-americans. It must feel GREAT to be black in america right now! So historic.; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Doug said...: Obama!; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Sean O said...: Yes We Did1; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
John Stadler said...: Obama only 5,000 behind McCain in Indiana, CNN shows.

Astounding!; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Jay said...: I'll try this again.

Thank you Nate, Brett and Sean for all you have done.

I still say 364 EVs for Obama (although IN could push that higher).

Did we ever get the Real Joe surprise?; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Joe The Fake Virginian said...: While Chuck Todd was boo hooing VA being "behind" expecations, the McCain percentage kept slipping, until it was 50-49 for McCain.

Then someone else said 18% of Fairfax and 0% of Arlington had reported. THIS IS ABOUT 1.5 MILLION VOTERS.

Chuck Todd, Sit Down And Shut Up

Now, Obama is LEADING VA.

FAKE VIRGINIA RISE UP!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
Zac said...: Obama leads Virginia now. Let's take Virginia, and North Carolina, and Florida, and Indiana! Mandate time!; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
jengod said...: Thank you to Nate and your collaborators for the great work. Wonderful site. Thanks for all of this.; November 4, 2008 10:05 PM
kmills said...: Nate! Calling it right. We love you man.; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: REAL JOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOE

How'd you vote?; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Neens said...: 4am here in Hamburg, Germany - and wow, this is a terrific closure to a nerve-wracking election!

Go Obama!

P.S. Nate, your site is just amazing, I've followed it pretty close for the last some months. Good work! :-); November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Festeria said...: Donuts & Bacon!!! WHOOO!
Whee!; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
davisindy said...: I want Joe the Plumber to concede now before we turn IN BLUE!! :); November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
2much2lose said...: Marge said...

Greetings from Canada!

Congratulations America! You have shown that there is hope after all, and that most of you do not have bigoted Stone Age minds and saw through the Palin-McCain nonsense.

Here's to a great next 8 years.

Thank you Marge!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Hope for the Future said...: my heart is soaring!!!; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
PoliticAl2008 said...: This is huge. I'm 43 ... too young to know JFK or even MLK, barely recall the first man on the moon or the ending of the Vietnam War, and really only saw the advent of the Internet in 1993.

I'm not only not old enough to know of the segregation this country had, I barely saw residual carryover in my lifetime to a considerable level.

This IS the largest thing to happen in my lifetime. You and I are witnesses to the United States of America's first non-white President.

Amazing!!!; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
El Oso said...: fuck, gotta leave in 45 mins; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Bruce08628 said...: For the first time in 8 years I'm proud of this country. Tears of joy....; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Rocchio said...: I love you calling this election on your site. The site has been awesome: accurate, thoughtful, careful, clear, supportive of obsession and HOPE. Now America can be America again. Thanks guys for reporting it to us so well.; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
weebeast said...: running through the tape
thank you PA for leading the way....

from NYC with love; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Pebbles the Cat said...: TGI Obama!! America you woke up and did us proud, finally, yay!!; November 4, 2008 10:06 PM
Dave-london said...: BBC Coverage is fairly weak on anaylsis but gets some good early notices of what the networks are saying.

There was certainly no big fanfare witht the PA or OH result.

But then again John Bolton getting buried over and over is always worthwhile. Hee is going to sue re the VA military vote.

Flicking between CNN BBC.; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
Lani said...: I just wish he could be president more than 8 years.; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
LJay said...: LMAOOOOOOOOOOOOO@Lawdogusc
dyin@FREEDOM!!!; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
Eric TF Bat said...: Dammit! I had a blog post all ready to go, saying "You stupid bloody morons!" and with a title of "American Voters *&@$ It Up Again", and now I won't be able to use it for at least eight years. Curses!; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: This is fantastic. Robert Kennedy's prediction that we would have an African American president in 40 years has come true. MLK's dream is becoming a reality. My AA brothers who died and were wounded (in greater proportion then there population)in a senseless war have been rewarded for their sacrafice.; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
Daniel K said...: I'm not yet cheering but this appears to be the case! Out with Bush! In with Obama!

A new America!!

But, I will wait for the final results.; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
One$Earned said...: Ohio was the tipping state in my
opinion. Way to go OHIO!; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
KMartDad said...: It seems almost surreal.

By the way, I love Carville.; November 4, 2008 10:07 PM
chrish60 said...: Ohio: all is forgiven.

Wow.; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
John said...: Yes we did... :); November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
Becky Sharp said...: IN, VA, NC, FL, CO, NV for Obama based on votes, exit polls, counties left to vote!!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
Bex of Ambridge said...: Becky I am planning my emigration AS WE SPEAK!! Need to get one more year of medical school under my belt then I'm all yours.

OH THIS IS AWESOME STUFF!!!

So proud of you all.; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
Becky Sharp said...: @john

nice!; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
Lani said...: For the first time, I cannot wait to watch fox news and hear McCain and Palin concede!; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
Debra said...: Thank you Nate! We all love you.; November 4, 2008 10:08 PM
Julia said...: OH YEAH!
I've lived in the USA for all of my 53 years and this is the FIRST time I can say that I'm proud to be here.
Yes we can.
Thank you Nate. Good work!; November 4, 2008 10:09 PM
Joshua said...: Add in CA, OR, WA, and HI right now and not call anything else, it's 284.

As Richard Crenna would have said if he were still alive, it's over, Johnny. IT'S OVER!!!; November 4, 2008 10:09 PM
Becky Sharp said...: >>Becky I am planning my emigration AS WE SPEAK!! Need to get one more year of medical school under my belt then I'm all yours.

All mine or all America's ;-); November 4, 2008 10:09 PM
PAUL said...: Steve,

We know exactly what we have done and our country will be better for it.

I will enjoy it.; November 4, 2008 10:09 PM
One$Earned said...: Isn't ironic that Ohio begins with
an 'O' and they made a dramatic
impact on 'O'bama's win 2night.

I've only visited the state once
in my life, but I think I will have
to schedule a return visit.; November 4, 2008 10:09 PM
z95hesgone said...: Fired up???

Check that, Firing up!!!

Woo hoo; November 4, 2008 10:09 PM
gmayer said...: I can't believe it. Ecstatic is an understatement. Thank you to EVERYONE who worked so hard to make this happen. Working for the Obama campaign was the most rewarding thing our family has ever done.; November 4, 2008 10:10 PM
Peter` said...: Nate calls it. Works for me.; November 4, 2008 10:10 PM
Becky Sharp said...: Obama up by 13,000 in VA (84%)

Virginia landslide!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:10 PM
Andy said...: Congratulations, America. And thanks to Nate, Sean and Brett for your intelligent analysis throughout.; November 4, 2008 10:10 PM
RCKinPA said...: No words seem right. I am ready for a whole body happy dance. God bless us everyone, especially President-elect Obama and family.; November 4, 2008 10:10 PM
beehive maiden said...: can't wait to throw this in neocons' faces:
"Yes, that's right, President Barack HUSSEIN Obama! Deal with it!"

woo hoo!; November 4, 2008 10:11 PM
SHERWICK said...: I'm drinking some fine Champagne here right now!
:)
Looking forward to the stockmarket rallying big from now on!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:11 PM
Becky Sharp said...: Nate I never doubted you!!!! (honest!)
Love you to bits!!!!!!!! (and Sean)

hysterically happy (and crying!!!); November 4, 2008 10:11 PM
Nam Vet Joe From Jersey said...: Where is Real Joe; November 4, 2008 10:11 PM
cincyr said...: Thank God!

Now get ready for McCain to blame the economic crisis, Bush's approval rating, and the media's treatment of Palin for his loss. He's a war hero! It's not his fault!

BTW, I will never feel sorry for McCain. After he went on "The View" and said his attack ad saying Obama wanted to teach sex to Kindergartners was 100% accurate, I could never have pity for him.

Thanks Nate for all your hard work!; November 4, 2008 10:12 PM
One$Earned said...: Is there a path for McCain/Palin to
270? Any path at all??; November 4, 2008 10:12 PM
seanpfister said...: Nate Silver, thanks very much for your hard work on this site. I'm a market researcher by trade--I know how much effort went into this.

thanks,

-s; November 4, 2008 10:12 PM
Fetal said...: Winner winner chicken dinner!!

Obama's the man!

Woohoo!!!; November 4, 2008 10:12 PM
John McCain is my Love Child! said...: PK...

Where have you gone?

Real Joe...I officially no longer care about your secret.; November 4, 2008 10:12 PM
SHERWICK said...: ::Cheers:: to all my 53 friends!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:13 PM
Becky Sharp said...: 30,000 ahead in VA!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:13 PM
St. Nick said...: Say What?

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TuhpO9xG2MY; November 4, 2008 10:14 PM
JJ said...: New thread; November 4, 2008 10:14 PM
Bex of Ambridge said...: @Becky:

Well which would you like?! All Obama's perhaps.

Seriously, in the carried away emotion of the moment I am wanting to exchange some emails and get me over to CA for a visit...

OH THIS IS JUST INCREDIBLE. Come on VA. A lovely blue cherry on the cake.; November 4, 2008 10:14 PM
Saint Lemur said...: I've got the cider out and am enjoying it.

I have a bottle of 2005 Ommegang Three Philosophers at the ready for the victory speech
dsgdsgds
WV: "chille". Tomorrow, I will celebrate with a big bowl of Texas-style chille.; November 4, 2008 10:15 PM
Tyson said...: GOD BLESS YOU OHIO!!!!!!!
GOD BLESS YOU NEW MEXICO!!!!
GOD BLESS YOU COLORADO!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:15 PM
penumbralheart said...: i am crying already. soon we will celebrate. this means so much to me though.

for those of you in Grant Park, give a shout out from the land of Enchantment!

Someone just shouted 'NBC just gave CO to Obama' Can they give it away, I used to live there, and still have a condo I can't sell in Denver. At least they gave it to a nice person! =)

wv: bectelin - what certain campaign people will be taking tomorrow after partying too hard!; November 4, 2008 10:15 PM
Jean said...: Finally, I'm a proud Ohioan!!!; November 4, 2008 10:15 PM
Relativist said...: YES YES YES!

Thank you for this great site! And welcome to a new day for the United States of America!; November 4, 2008 10:16 PM
Bex of Ambridge said...: @Becky:

Your VA updates are very reassuring!! VA is going BLUE!

Anyone else think they called GA too early? Or were the early declared counties more representative than in VA?; November 4, 2008 10:16 PM
Tony Graffanino said...: Glad that's finally over, I have some questions about the White Sox I need answered. Jesus.; November 4, 2008 10:16 PM
Chun said...: Losing the election is great news for John McCain!; November 4, 2008 10:16 PM
Blog, MD said...: Yes. We. Did.

Thanks for all of your hard work, Nate!; November 4, 2008 10:17 PM
Dr. Cuba Libre said...: Hey, now my husband is willing to apply for citizenship! (He wanted to wait and see for this election.) Yay!; November 4, 2008 10:17 PM
Jen said...: Oh, how I wish I was in Grant Park right now...........

Congratulations, President-elect Obama. Boy, that felt good to type that. :) It's been a LONG 8 years...........; November 4, 2008 10:17 PM
Becky Sharp said...: @bex - mail me!

Indiana going darker blue on Intrade I notice. And to their credit VA never went re don Intrade all night; November 4, 2008 10:17 PM
Moojedav said...: Well done gents... only thing remaining is to see how close the tally lands to your final EV prediction.; November 4, 2008 10:18 PM
Tyson said...: Anyone know Michelle Bachman's numbers from MN?

Dole out and hopefully this C%^t will be next; November 4, 2008 10:18 PM
guide on the side teacher said...: Nate: Terrific job. You're the best!Now the work really begins.
Steve from Mass.; November 4, 2008 10:19 PM
Batamm said...: What was Real Joe's surprise?; November 4, 2008 10:20 PM
weinerdog said...: And for an awesome visual...
POTUS!; November 4, 2008 10:21 PM
Curmudgeon said...: Way to go, dems; November 4, 2008 10:22 PM
Charlie said...: President-elect Barack Hussein Obama!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:23 PM
Dave Brodbeck said...: I have it on good authority while TX went to JM that Hank Hill voted for Obama...; November 4, 2008 10:23 PM
madamerica said...: I live in Atlanta and I'm extremely disappointed by the Georgia results. 60-39 for McCain! I cannot believe this.; November 4, 2008 10:24 PM
Buckeye said...: The magnatic pull of VA has just put Obama in the lead there. Kiss my ASS ZOGBY!!!!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:24 PM
weinerdog said...: "I have it on good authority while TX went to JM that Hank Hill voted for Obama..."

Yet another poor soul who has found himself recently unemployed due to the disastrous Repuke economic policies ;); November 4, 2008 10:25 PM
kit_3333 said...: Thanks to the people posting here from Singapore, Russia, France, Germany, UK and other countries!!!

We look forward to rejoining the international community!!!; November 4, 2008 10:25 PM
ialex said...: 3600 vote separation in IN!!!! (adv. McCain)

Come on Obama!; November 4, 2008 10:26 PM
Buckeye said...: you people have no idea what you've done.

------------------------
Shut UP!!!!!!!; November 4, 2008 10:26 PM
Tyson said...: http://i163.photobucket.com/albums/t291/smbrinich/Humor/election-outcome.jpg; November 4, 2008 10:27 PM
Metr Maid said...: Chilante' and G*d bless the U.S. of A.

Meater Maid; November 4, 2008 10:27 PM
Jeff Lazerus said...: Best post ever. Best election website ever. Congratulations to the USA. NOW GET BACK TO WORK!; November 4, 2008 10:27 PM
jonathan said...: This is great news! For John McCain! McCain only needs to carry California, Washington, and Oregon. Too bad those are part of the fake part of America.

wv: mincemu - An emu wearing a mink coat.; November 4, 2008 10:27 PM
Anthony Kennerson said...: Maybe it's a bit early to make it official until the race is officially called....but considering how things have turned lately, I'm going to go out on a very long limb.

Congratulations, President-Elect Obama and Vice President-Elect Biden.

But most of all....congratulations to the people of America for finally seeing the light.

And props to the guys at FiveThirtyEight for their excellent work.

BTW..I wonder what PeteKent, VACon, MuleRider, Jack-be-Nimble, all the other right-wing trolls and sockpuppets are doing right about now?? On the other hand....maybe I really shouldn't ask.

Anthony; November 4, 2008 10:28 PM
samule said...: all abortion propositions defeated so far!!

medical marijuana legal in Michigan...lol

DEVELOPING; November 4, 2008 10:30 PM
samule said...: anti-abortion obviously, sorry!; November 4, 2008 10:31 PM
marcys3070 said...: OMG!!!! We did this! We did this! We worked, we donated, we believed in a man who dared to live the American Dream!!! If I weren't so tired I'd cry.

Nate you can sleep tomorrow!!! Thanks man. You Rock!

Congratulations President Obama!; November 4, 2008 10:39 PM
Jim said...: It about time we had a REAL President!!!!!!!!!

God Bless America...........

Jim; November 4, 2008 10:40 PM
Barb said...: Obama's victory gives so many people so much hope, and I sincerely believe he'll reward our faith. Our country will now behave like a responsible world citizen.

I'm so grateful for this moment. Thank you, everyone who helped make this happen!

It's a new day.; November 4, 2008 10:42 PM
mohan k said...: Finally! After all these years and months of anxiety. Here's to a new, bright sun shining day. Good luck, President-elect Obama!; November 4, 2008 10:55 PM
kathymichelle said...: @Steve - why your comment 'you people'?

WE as Americans WILL overcome. We as Americans tried it the other way, for eight years WE tried it. NOW, WE will try it another way with NEW, envigorated leadership.

To all the Republicans or McCain supporters, as Americans we will work to make this a good America. I trust you will too.

God Bless America and OUR NEW PRESIDENT-ELECT BARACK OBAMA!!; November 4, 2008 11:00 PM
Brendan Scolari said...: A sad, sad day for America. We finally elect a socialist. How long before we're the same as Europe?? Nationalized healthcare, redistribution of income, you name it, Obama supports it. I have never been so disappointed in the American people. Bush was awful, but Obama is so terrifying that Bush looks fine by comparison. We brought this upon our shoulders and this is going to hurt us for a long time. I just hope now that the damage can be limited and Obama can be thrust out after four disgusting years. Its going to be a looong wait before we see any improved America from what it has become today.; November 4, 2008 11:15 PM
Cinderpath said...: Thanks for the hard work Nate- you converted a Doubting Thomas from Detroit!" Peace!; November 5, 2008 12:35 AM
frank said...: DEAR NATE, SEAN ET AL
WELL DONE!
WHEN YOU'RE RIGHT, YOU'RE RIGHT!
!BOY! ARE YOU RIGHT!!!!!!!!!; November 5, 2008 12:48 AM
Keith said...: Thanks Nate!!! I never was in doubt because I checked your page daily. If a man runs 10,000 elections daily, I think I can trust his projections. Look at your projected map and the final map. Only Indiana is different. (NC not called yet, but I believe it will go to Obama). So what next Nate? 2012? Or the Kentucky Derby? LOL... Great work guy!!!; November 5, 2008 9:47 PM
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平平 said...: ^^ nice blog!! ^@^

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平平 said...: ^^ very nice

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11.04.2008

Obama to Become Next President

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