Here's an impressive-sounding statistic, even if it's mostly an artifact of population growth. Barack Obama's victory margin from November 4th now stands at 9,124,522 votes, and will probably grow a bit more once states like Illinois, New York and California finalize their counts.
This is the 6th largest victory margin of all time, and the largest ever by a non-incumbent.
Largest Popular Vote Margin
Year Candidate Inc? Margin
1972 Nixon Yes 17,995,488
1964 Johnson Yes 17,951,287
1984 Reagan Yes 16,678,120
1936 Roosevelt Yes 11,070,786
1956 Eisenhower Yes 9,551,152
2008 Obama No 9,124,522*
1980 Reagan No 8,423,115
1996 Clinton Yes 8,201,370
1924 Coolidge Yes 7,377,547
1988 Bush No 7,077,121
* ProvisionalIf looked at in percentage terms, however, Obama's 7.0-point margin is really fairly middle of the road, having been bettered 26 times overall and by 12 non-incumbents:Largest Popular Vote Percentage Margin, Non-Incumbents Only
Year Candidate Inc? Margin
1920 Harding No 26.2%
1932 Roosevelt No 17.7%
1928 Hoover No 17.4%
1912 Wilson No 14.4%
1836 Van Buren No 14.2%
1828 Jackson No 12.4%
1856 Buchanan No 12.2%
1952 Eisenhower No 10.9%
1860 Lincoln No 10.3%
1980 Reagan No 9.7%
1908 Taft No 8.6%
1988 Bush No 7.8%
2008 Obama No 7.0%*
* ProvisionalOne compromise between these two approaches is to look at a candidate's raw popular vote margin divided into the total number of eligible voters; this accounts for population growth while rewarding a candidate for higher turnout. By this metric, Reagan's win in 1980 is still somewhat more impressive than Obama's -- he won by 8,425,115 votes out of 159,635,102 available, or 5.3%. By contrast, Obama won by 9,124,522 votes out of 213,005,467 available, or 4.3%. However, Obama's fraction is slightly better than George H.W. Bush's in 1988, who won by 7,077,121 votes out of 167,701,904 available, or 4.2%.
101 comments
The election is over. You and Kos need to give this crap a rest.
I agree with Jack. You need to quit wallowing in your own filth. It's disgusting and getting old.
Oh, btw, Obama was elected here in 2008, not 2004!
Nate, there's no other way around this, but you are a complete stooge.
reagan only accomplished dividing the country but hey we gave him his name on an airport. who says dirty deeds dont go unrewarded
jack- hit the road
drudge is missing a sore loser sorely
Reagan didn't accomplish "dividing the country."
It was already divided. It still is. Reagan didn't do anything that Obama hasn't done. Play up those divisions but in a very coy and sly manner, making sure you are able to draw the line where the majority stands with you.
Obama is the most divisive figure in American politics. Bar none.
I believe Van Buren was elected in 1836 not 1936.
Please continue to provide these interesting analyses.
Obama is coming into office with huge positives...but he's also coming in against the headwinds of huge negatives. A substantial portion of the population doesn't just disagree with him, they despise him to the core for his radical ideology. Is it possible that so many millions of people are completely wrong? Not likely. He may not be evil in disguise, but he is and will be a bad leader. He is a silver-tongued snake oil salesman who will be discovered to be a fraud sometime before his first term is up.
Obama, like Nate Silver and so many of their followers here on 538, are ideological oafs and bullies.
They are nothing more than scandalous, lying hacks who claim to know the "truth" but in reality fill up the blogosphere with nothing but repulsive and deceptive noise.
Fivethirtyeight.com be damned!
Mule Rider needs to sue whomever stole his life.
Probably could handle it all in small claims court in any event.
Can someone please explain why Obama has so many huge negatives against him? Why do so many people clearly despise the man? This is far worse than with other recent presidential candidates before they took office.
Why is Obama loathed so much? All we here about are the crowds and the numbers of people who are excited, but there is a clear and distinctive portion of the population that absolutely can't stand him. Why? They can't all be wrong, can they?
This man is a fraud and a hack!
He will be proven to be a failure as a president before halfway through his first term.
Don't believe me?! That's okay. You'll have a front row seat for the viewing of the carnage that is to come. I'm not worried about anyone missing out on what's about to happen. It's inevitable and then all of you throwing your unrelenting and nauseating support behind this man will be made to look like fools.
Mule Rider: If Obama is the most divisive figure in American Politics, then how is it he won by a larger margin in terms of electoral votes and popular vote than Bush in both 2000 and 2004? And how is it that his favorability-unfavorability margin is much higher than Sarah Palin's favorability-unfavorability margin and Bush's job approval-disapproval margin?
Nice to see that blindspot among the extreme right wing is as large as ever. It will favor the Democrats in the upcoming election cycles.
And Mule Rider where are your numbers to support your assertions of the average person "loathing" Obama. And statements from right wing websites do not count, the margins I referred into my earlier post comes from gallup, not exactly a bastion of left wing ideology. I say that to preempt any accusations that gallup polling are done by liberal hacks.
bcf-rofl
thank you, no one could have said it better
Impressive numbers for Obama. This is what justifies his speaking of a mandate for change.
In the context of the racist attacks on him, this is even more impressive.
wv: afacle
The coward, MR, speaks again: "Obama is the most divisive figure in American politics. Bar none."
Wow, what pure, gross ignorance. And to think he is proud to flaunt it! Here is a clue, sport: The most divisive figure in American politics is Shrub. Bar none. And it is not even close!
k,
The numbers suggest that of the millions who voted against him, they didn't just do so because they disagreed with him. Millions and millions of people very strongly disagree with him and/or absolutely despise him.
He is one of the most despised incoming presidents (based on people who strongly oppose him and are not just apathetic or ambivalent towards his election) ever.
This country is more divided as ever. Obama can't change that. He's fueling it with his divisive rhetoric against conservatives. He is so silver-tongued, though, and I know you'll disagree with me, that it sounds like he's trying to bring everyone together but that's absolutely not true.
He only got to this point by demonizing and bastardizing conservatives.
So people don't like Obama? Funny, 'cause less than 30% support Bush yet 46% still voted for McCain. Some unifier Obama is. One of the least popular outgoing presidents - EVER! - and he gets only the support of little more than half the country.
You don't get it because you twist the narrative to fit your sick world view.
Please don't put Obama on lists that include Hoover, Harding and Taft.
@Mule Rider:
"Why is Obama loathed so much? All we here about are the crowds and the numbers of people who are excited, but there is a clear and distinctive portion of the population that absolutely can't stand him. Why? They can't all be wrong, can they?"
It may be true that there are millions of people that voted against Obama, but despite that, even MORE people voted FOR him!
Imagine that! A president who won the popular vote getting in to office!
You'll notice that in 2000, a majority of the population voted against the election of President Bush -- and they didn't turn out to be wrong, did they?
Interesting analysis. I think in today's day and age, however, a 7% victory is probably equivalent to a 15% victory in bygone eras. We are living in a hyper-polarized world, and as long as the right wing talk radio hate machine is spewing their nonsense, there's a solid chunk of the country that will never vote for a "demon-rat," or whatever they call us.
Can we even imagine life before wedge issues and talk radio where people felt free to vote for the best candidate?
There are just so many trolls posting comments here on 538, I swear, it must be a troll-magnet!
Mule, jack, and all the rest, I mean, really now. If you really hated this site as much as you claim, and if you really don't like what Nate and Team have to say, then why are you here? Nobody's forcing you to read this page. Obviously you must derive some joy from the experience, or you wouldn't be here.
As for the rest of the commentary, let me point out that what jack, mule, etc are really masturbating to is your reactions to their comments. They really don't give a fuck one way or the other about politics, they just like seeing people lose their shit. So when you react to these trolls, they get off.
If you're alright with that, or maybe even enjoy it, then fine, but don't be so naive to think that they,re trying to engage you in some form of public debate that will lead either of you to adopt the other,s ideas or even consider them seriously. This isn't a reasoned argument, it's a drunken brawl. If they get you to rant back at them, it's as if they've punched you in the face from the other side of your monitor.
Trolls feed on stupidity, so you have to starve them out to get them to go away. When they push your buttons, ignore it. After all, nobody's making you read their posts anymore than they're being made to read Nate's.
As for Obama being divisive - watch the GOP governors who meet him next week in Philadelphia swoon over him and try to get on his good side.
Most of them at that point will likely make tentative plans to look toward 2016 rather than 2012 for serious GOP challenging of the White House (except of course for Palin, who is the most divisive figure in reality).
Jindal, Crist, Pawlenty and other possible candidates will figure it is best to wait until later
dsalkovi,
That's Mister Mule Rider to you, you pathetic piece of shit.
Hey, Bush is on his way OUT! He will no longer be in politics. He won't be the focus anymore. No more blame. No more looking back.
Has Bush been divisive? Damn right he has. Has he damaged the country with his divisiveness? Absolutely.
But we're talking about Obama and his incoming administration. They are utterly and disgustingly divisive and are power-hungry mobsters who are seeking to tear this country down across ideological lines.
It's happening right in front of your eyes, yet you're just one of the millions of sheeple that's been blindly duped into thinking this pile of afterbirth is actually going to do something good for the country.
Get your head out of the sand, you maggot!
Obama is divisive! This isn't even up for discussion.
I think Mule Rider lives in his own fantasy land where "Obama is the most divisive figure in American politics. Bar none."
Funny thing that he won bigger share of the vote than any Republican (or anybody period) in 20 years. Funny thing also that Obama is viewed favourably by 71% of the people according to Gallup today:
http://www.gallup.com/poll/111772/Gallup-Daily-Obama-Favorability.aspx
swoon over him and try to get on his good side
If there's any swooning, it's their way of begging for mercy from this power-hungry jerkoff who is poised to rule with an iron fist and torment and humiliate conservatives for the next 8 years.
They hope that by doing a little sucking up, maybe he won't completely turn this country into a hybrid combo of Zimbabwe, France, and Cuba and completely ostracize conservatives from society.
Obama hates those who disagree with him and he will seek to demonize them in his presidency.
Somehow I remember Mule Rider, while being disagreeable, at least having some decency before the election.
Has Obama's win been so hard on Mule Rider that its driven him bat-sh@t insane?
Or is this a sock puppet?
Developing...
Hmmm
Obama hates those who disagree with him and he will seek to demonize them
If that is true, it appears to be a trait that you and Obama have in common.
No, this is me. The real one. I'm still level-headed, but I'm just feeling like unloading as much hyperbole as possible to get it out of my system ahead of the holiday.
I'm actually in a pretty good mood about things, and if I was to be truthfully honest, on a scale of 1 to 10, with 1 being I'm very disappointed about Obama's moves as president-elect and my worst fears confirmed and a 10 being very pleasantly surprised and having some hope that he won't be quite so bad, right now I'm at about a 6 or a 7. No joke.
I just like to "troll it up" a little and talk shit at those who so glowingly approve of him. I may come to respect him and support him much more than I do now...maybe even like him a little bit...but hell will freeze over before I ever swoon and go all bonkers happy over that pompous jerk at any point in my life.
@Mule
To address the elephant in the room, I'd say a good proportion of people who 'despise' Obama is based purely on the fact that he's black. I acknowledge that there are people who legitimately oppose his presidency based on his policy decisions and what he stands for and in truth there's no way of confirming exactly how many people voted for McCain or abstained from voting because of his race but if you had asked me the number 1 reason why Obama could never be elected a year ago I would have said it was because he's black (I hate to say this), not because he's a liberal.
Reagan's results were anomalous.
It was a three man race, where Anderson drew votes away from Carter. I personally know people who voted for Anderson because Carter wasn't going to win their state, and they wanted Anderson to qualify for future matching funds. This of course, increased the differential btw the two leading candidates.
But more importantly, NBC projected Reagan the winner at 8:15 PM Eastern time (5:15 PM Pacific).
As a rule of thumb in 1980, republicans voted by early in the morning and by absentee ballot, and Democrats voted in the evening after work.
There is a study that concludes western turnout declined 6 to 11 percent based on the project.
http://www.jstor.org/pss/2748933
One thing that's impressive is how cautious the GOP elected officials being during this interregnum period.
I think this reflects three things (not in order).
1. Obama's strong win, coupled with the strong Democratic surge nationally.
2. Disarray in the intellectual and political leadership of the right. Who's the boss? Surely not W. National Review purges. Leading conservatives lauding Obama's choices of cabinet.
3. Continuing dysfunctionality of Bush and many in his administration. Bush is packing to leave, and will no doubt sail off to oblivion, where he will set up his presidential library next to the Chamber of American Horrors (h/t to Nathaniel West).
4. Terrible economic crisis we're in, and a longing for some kind of leadership, even from a president elect who has no formal power -- not even a seat in the Senate at this time.
On the last point, I watch a lot of CNBC, a channel that's closely linked in thinking with the "economic right." I'm seeing almost nothing but praise from them about both Obama's filling the leadership vacuum and the quality of people he's bringing into his administration.
If those inveterate free-marketeers are cheering Obama on and recognizing that he's taking a pragmatic approach to things, then there's hope for a broader governing consensus down the road in addressing some of the big issues other than the financial situation.
In that connection, it was enjoyable watching Grover Norquist make a fool of himself in trying to blame Obama for the current financial crisis -- and being criticized by the CNBC crew, among others.
wv: lateep (Hmmm, did't I have a childhood friend by that name?)
Bartbuster,
Get over yourself, douche. I'm just a loudmouth on a blog, and he's the president-elect. Demonizing and hating are qualities we can ill afford in the Oval Office. The blogosphere has unlimited space. Look how many hateful, spiteful schmucks occupy time and space here on 538.
Phandy,
I agree that race is likely a factor in holding back is numbers to some degree and put a cap a little bit lower than it would have been with a white candidate who had similar beliefs and qualities, but let's don't ignore the ideological divide that is ripping this country apart and both sides are guilty of playing to in their quest for power.
Nice to know its the same you Mule Rider and even nicer to know we haven't lost you :)
Its fun to have guys like you and PeteKent (although I haven't seen him lately) around as a counter-point with differing views.
Mule Driver-
So in particular, what so far do you like about Barack's transition?
Hey Mule-rider and Jack-be-nimble:
Thanks for coming back again and again for your semi-daily beatings --- we really appreciate it...
Nate (and the rest of us) are going to be mining information from this election for the next year, at least...And it is great to see you guys coming over here and giving us all a couple or three laughs every comment thread...
BTW, could you give us your opinion of current President George W. Bush...You two never talk about this guy, but he's been president and all for eight years, he's the face of your party, and I was wondering what you thought of him...Use numbers if you have to so it is in the spirit of this site: maybe compare annual budget deficits w/ Clinton or something...
Oh yeah, and just keep coming back for your beatings...
Is this Sean Quinn...or some other Sean?
If it's Quinn, I want some poker action!! Screw all the political talk crap. I play poker!
Hey Sean and Nate: Free money!
Check it out...rightroot trolls...it was inevitable. Are you guys getting paid like McSame "volunteers" too?
hill.tops,
Basically, he's handled himself and said things that are fairly reassuring that he's going to guide the country in a new direction that seems to be best...but I'm not getting the feeling of any "radical" change or anything like that, so that's good.
Also, his appointments have been mostly reassuring and the economic advisory team and other steps he's taking in that arena seem more and more pragmatic than radical...so I'm building hope that he's not a crazed loon....although it's still a while before he takes office.
Earl,
The reason I don't say much about Bush is he's not the leader of "my" party and I think he has sucked ass as president. SHould he be blamed for everything that people have laid at his feet? Probably not. But he has sucked nonetheless.
I'm not a Republican. I've never voted Republican. I'm a conservative independent with a little bit of a sprinkle of libertarianism.
yeah, where is Pete Kent? Gone off into the forests to look for those missing Republican voters he thinks hang out there?
Mule Rider, did you really cast your vote to get Sarah Palin as VP?
Mule Rider,
What made you think Barack would be radical?
He best friend in the Senate is Tom Coburn.
Members of the federalist society swear to his leadership at Harvard.
In fact, during the early primary contests, opponents would accuse him of being a secret republican, especially after the generous comment he made about Reagan in Nevada.
I think the most telling endorsement(s) of the campaign occured when Barry Goldwater's children endorsed Barack en masse, instead of their state senator.
Similarly, the endorsements of Susan Eisenhower and Julie Nixon.
Get over yourself, douche
Right back at ya, asshole.
Mrs B,
No. I did NOT vote for McCain/Palin.
Mule-
now you have us confused.
If you've never voted Republican, who did you vote for, for example, in 2000 -- Pat Buchanan?
Obama is the least divisive president we've had really since the start of the "culture wars." The fact of the matter is the ascent of the Baby Boomer generation into power, which began with Clinton, really started the idea of the "Red State America" and "Blue State America." Clinton never got over 50% of the vote and Bush got it only once. Those two were the most "divisive" presidents and really reflected this big sort era we are in.
With Obama, though the Red/Blue divide still exists, we are seeing some cracks. 66% of young voters voting for Obama, Obama doing well with Catholics, etc.
Let's be honest here, and keep this simple:
The 2008 election was: The Somewhat Crusty War Hero VERSUS Black Guy With Weird Muslim-Sounding Name.
In that fight, the latter is a 25-point underdog in the United States.
The fact that Obama won at all -- let alone by seven points -- is a damn miracle.
(Note: The Media likes to blame the economic farting, but keep in mind that Obama had the lead before the conventions and therefore before the biggest flatulence.)
Conclusion: Obama is a special dude. Or: is good at fooling people into thinking he is a special dude. We'll have a better idea which in a few years.
-- Joe
WV: swakiver -- People who do these word verifications should have swakivers jammed right up their swakivers until such time as they bleed and die. Then I will come along and swakiver their wives and husbands, and drink their whiskey.
Our beloved Mr. Mule (and the rest of you) may want to read this fascinating cover article on BHO in The American Conservative to find out how divisive conservatives really think he is.
http://www.amconmag.com/article/2008/dec/01/00006/
Mule Rider, I KNEW you weren't stupid enough to have wanted Palin anywhere near the federal government.
Unlike Jack be nimble.
I don't leave many comments here but the notion that Obama is divisive just because of his political beliefs is plainly absurd. So he has left of center political beliefs. So what? Divisive people are the bomb throwers, the Tom DeLay's, Karl Roves, and Tom Tancredo's of the world. On the liberal side the Jim McDermott's or Charlie Rangel's of the world. Obama is a pragmatist, not a partisan. How anyone can see him and see otherwise is beyond me.
hill.tops,
I didn't vote in 2000 even though I was eligible.
I sorta wanted Gore to win but didn't really have a strong feeling for him (which is obvious since I didn't vote).
oh Mule Rider - you didn't vote in 2000? You mean Bush is YOUR fault?
Obama is a pragmatist, not a partisan. How anyone can see him and see otherwise is beyond me.
You're entitled to your opinion, and we shall see. But the fact remains that we haven't seen how he'll behave on the biggest stage when it comes time to make the biggest decisions.
Mule Rider likes to to "troll it up" a little and talk shit, and is just a loudmouth on a blog.
His own words not mine lolol
:)
As for Obama:
1. over 9 million votes in front and growing.
2. over 7% in front and growing.
3. over 130 million votes cast in total.
This is EXCELLENT NEWS!!!
Mrs B,
I said I tepidly endorsed Gore...just didn't vote either way.
Don't blame me. The state I was in was decidedly for Bush. I couldn't have changed that with one vote.
It was all Florida.
"Somehow I remember Mule Rider, while being disagreeable, at least having some decency before the election."
Ass Rider has never been decent. Ever.
He is a vile hateful clown that thinks he is important enough to gain the attention of people who actually contribute something like Nate.
What is funny is that he spews his vitriol and considers it intelligent, well documented facts. You simply can't have a discussion with him; you can pity him, pray he gets back on his meds, laugh at him, or ignore him. He won't go away. You can rip on him so hard by presenting facts and he will throw a tantrum and go away for a day or two, but that is it. He is the heartiest species of cockroach known to man.
Ass Rider is a type 2 hater troll
That link is likely NSFW.
It befuddles me that Harding won by such a large margin, and then turned out to be the worst President in history. Astounding.
Oh, and jack-be-nimble: this is a site about polling and elections with an emphasis on statistical measurement. Are you honestly surprised that we're talking about a statistical measurement of the most recent election? Seriously? I just can't bring myself to believe you are that stupid.
Oh wait; you were one of the idiots telling us that white Democrats would never vote for Obama (despite polling data and primary results saying the exact opposite), and that McCain was going to win or least keep it close by virtue of the Bradley Effect (despite post after post after post showing empirical evidence disproving the Bradley Effect beyond the mid 90's).
Nevermind; you might just be that stupid.
And, Mule; who's the bigger stooge, the guy who operates a website that presents statistical evidence to support his arguments, or the loudmouth that wastes his time telling everyone how dumb he is?
(Ambiguous antecedent FTW!)
DNFTFT
WV: testhski: a lisper's personal watercraft.
ok, back to the topic, about how many votes are there still to come in?
And why are they taking so long to count?
And is Obama's placement in any of those lists likely change when all the votes are in?
"It befuddles me that Harding won by such a large margin, and then turned out to be the worst President in history. Astounding."
A good politician doesn't necessarily make for a good president, governor, etc.
Look at Reagan: outstanding politician, terrible president.
Sadly, those that would be excellent presidents but not very good politicians never gain office.
I suppose. It's just that, being a good politician requires a substantial amount of intelligence, and you would think that someone with that intelligence would make at least an average president, or maybe even slightly below average.
Frustrating. And it makes me wonder how democracy was even viable before the Information Age.
Robby-
Harding's victory was the result of Wilsonian backlashes (income tax, Suffrage, Flu epidemic, Palmer Raids, Intervention in Russia, League of NAtions, imprisoning political opponents - Eugene Debbs, Draft, WW I).
Harding campaign slogan: a return to normalcy.
The country was overwhelmingly Repub from 1860-1932. There were only 4 non GOP Presidential terms during that period. Wilson won in 1912 because of a GOP split, and 1916 mainly because "he kept us out of war," and even then, it was considered an upset.
So Harding was just a return to normalcy.
It took the Depression and later WW2 to break the GOP hold on the country.
This is how strong the GOP run has been - 1913-2012 will be the first consecutive 100 years in our history with a Dem hold on a majority of years in the White House.
Mule Rider said "...Look how many hateful, spiteful schmucks occupy time and space here on 538."
One?
We used to have more, but most of them don't take occupy much time or space, lately.
cosynesc: a wave-pattern that starts at the top, goes down, comes back up is cosinesque
The link tracks with what I'm seeing. Turnout of voting-age/eligible voters is ahead of every election post-1968. It doesn't look like it'll end up being better than 1968.
I'm maintaining interest as Obama's margin increases because my two-party back-of-the-envelope pre-election guess was 7.2% when all was said and done.
Others (as I understand them):
Polly Vote: 6%
538: 6.2%
Iowa Electronic Markets: 6.6%
Current (linked): 7.1%
Election Projection: 7.6%
RCP: 7.8%
Final turnout really depends a lot on what's still unreported in Illinois, Ohio, Pennsylvania and, to the greatest extent, New York. New York always lags. As far as I can tell they don't even offer assurance that they'll certify their results before the Electors meet on 12/15. I'll be surprised if there are less than 750,000 votes still outstanding in New York.
What jumps out of this table is that non-incumbent landslides have been very rare in the modern, post-Lincoln presidential era, EXCEPT for the period 1908-1932 when they were commonplace. (In between the two Roosevelts, so to speak).
Historians must have given this an explanation, does anyone here know what it is?
At any rate, in the CURRENT political climate, Obama's non-incumbent achievement is very substantial.
loner -- where do you find the latest presidential vote tallies?
For the most part during the past two years I thought the 2008 election was most going to resemble 1980 excepting, hopefully, a third-party bid by a Democrat unhappy about how the nomination battle turned out.
1920 came to mind more and more often though in the time period after the conventions.
Wilson effectively destroyed whatever prospects the Democrats had in numerous ways over the years and in 1920 there was also a huge wild card, women were voting in a Presidential election for the first time. Substitute Bush for Wilson and a biracial major-party nominee for women voters.
If Coleman wins, he likely will be among the top 5 pro-Obama GOP Senators, that is unless he switches and joins the Dem caucus, which I wouldn't rule out.
So don't be all that happy about his possible success trolls.
Mule Rider wrote, across several posts: "Is it possible that so many millions of people are completely wrong? ... Can someone please explain why Obama has so many huge negatives against him?"
Just a wild guess: For the same reason that a fairly large fraction of the population thinks that Saddam Hussein was linked with Al-Qaeda, that Iraq was trying to buy uranium from Niger, and that we actually did find WMD in Iraq.
"Just a wild guess: For the same reason that a fairly large fraction of the population thinks that Saddam Hussein was linked with Al-Qaeda, that Iraq was trying to buy uranium from Niger, and that we actually did find WMD in Iraq."
Not to mention that a substantial percentage of people still believe that Barack Hussein Obama is a Muslim.
and he "pall's around with terrorists" - that alone would scare several million (probably tens of millions).
Ah, I see that the right wing hate party is already in full swing. Apparently, those A-holes who write such slimy posts are to god damned dumb to even realize that this very behaviour that they demonstrate is a large part for the reason why the GOP got the pasting it deserved on November 4th. If these are really the streams of thought within the GOP, then it is doomed to become a regional hick party. Or will split into two parties.
It's ok Nate, I got a lot of hate mail for my projections. I projected Obama at 52.77% and today, he is at 52.77%. So, as far as I am concerned, the hate mongers can go shove it right up their --- constituency.
PresidentHussein—
I check the wikipedia.org 2008 Presidential Election page from time to time and the various state Secretary of State and Board of Elections pages as needed. In writing the above comment I was relying on Nate's link to a Daily Kos entry. That poster is also looking at County pages and has numbers higher than the current numbers at wikipedia.org, but in line with the numbers there excepting the total number of votes. The Other total on the wikipedia.org page is necessarily off (lower) given what they list in the state-by-state results so I don't find that surprising.
That poster is Mule Head's sock puppet back for more tiresome trolling...
DNFTT
wV - 'STING' as in losing the election so BADLY has gotta sting all these bitter, pathetic GOPer trolls
DCM in Fl
What happened to that guy who hid all the votes in his office down in your neck of the woods? Apart from not getting elected I mean.
Well, Mule Rider, weren't you supposed to be out looking for a job in order to justify your unemployment benefit? Instead you spend your time trolling on FiveThirtyEight.com and DailyKos. 18 posts in one morning, most of it repetitive: is that your idea of going out and finding a job? I thought rethugs were against lazy freeloaders like you living off the state.
Thanks, loner!
I'm not sure Lincoln or Wilson belong on your list. Lincoln won with less than 40% of the vote because of the four-way race. He probably would have lost against any one of his opponents had it been a one-on-one race. Wilson won in the Race-of-Three-Presidents because Taft and Roosevelt split the Republican vote.
I should have said Lincoln"... would have lost the POPULAR vote against any one of his opponents had it been a one-on-one race." He had an absolute majority in enough states to have won the wicked electoral college with his measly 39%. Lincoln was a great man and perhaps our greatest president, but no one should be able to become president with less than 40% of the vote. That's just wrong. I favor the "instant run-off" system and the abolition of the electoral college.
I know I tilt at windmills.
Nate,
This was a good post. I was curious about Obama's win tally. The final and certified results should be even more interesting. The people of this country make me smile, even the trolls.
The implication of this table is to rate the decisiveness of these elections. But to be fair, you should asterisk both Reagan (1980) and Clinton (1996) because in both cases there were significant third-party candidates.
My gut tells me that 'Mule Rider' is John Ziegler. He certainly posts like a radio host.
This post made me think about the first two elections. I would have though Washington would have won in a landslide in both his elections, but I was wrong, at least in terms of electoral votes if this site is accurate.
So Obama's plan is to "torment and humiliate conservatives for the next 8 years"? I like this man even more. Thanks, Mule Rider. Happy Thanksgiving.
Mule Rider -
There is no hard evidence whatsoever that Obama is an especially divisive political figure.
That is quite remarkable, considering that he is the first African-American president-elect.
He even won several southern states, and got around 40% of the white vote in some that he lost.
He was elected by a solid and substantial margin, won states and counties in all parts of the country, and did not do worse than recent past Democrat candidates among any identifiable demographics. It's not even clear that male white racists liked him any less than they liked Kerry.
We currently have an organized network of extreme right web sites and media outlets, the closest thing to a polite face of which is Fox News.
Obviously, the extreme right commenters would declare any Democrat president-elect, let alone an African-American, to be "divisive", "outrageous", "radical", etc.
Please note that a broken clock can be mistakenly perceived as "being right twice a day", but that in reality, it provides no useful information, because it gives the same response, no matter what the circumstances.
Rush Limbaugh, Fox News, and their internet imitators provide you with no real information. They will always say the same thing, no matter what is really happening.
To stave off a potential "nah nah nah, you've got cooties too" retort, I hasten to point out that this is NOT the case with fivethirtyeight.com.
Two quibbles I have with your presentation here, which was just the sort of thing in the back of my mind since I re-checked Obama's margins yesterday:
1-LBJ in '64 was an incumbent.
2-Expanding on the first point, a man who was VP in the administration immediately prior to the election could in many ways be considered an incumbent. They enjoy much larger visibility, the coattails of their predecessor (not always a good thing) and should probably be removed from the table or at least receive notation of VP status.
OMG It almost feels like the good old days!
wv=moneyin "money in money out that's what money's all about".
Hey, I made a poem from the wv!
In reply to David....
George Washington was unanimously elected, by all 69 Electors, who each cast 2 ballots. Under the system they used then, Adams became VP by virtue of being the most popular second choice.
Brian: best WV on this post.
Joe: If you hate WVs, don't read them.
I used to dislike Mule Rider, but I have been liking him more and more lately. His posts are becoming somewhat like the old "HE" posts - just meant to rile up the readers. He doesn't believe 80% of what he posts, but gets lots of readers apeshit crazy.
wv: detee - detox for the Brits?
Mule, your tears of rage and debasement of yourself are sweet sweet nectar. Keep it coming.
I'm sure you know that percentages provide more stable results.
Great analysis Nate!
Really, the largest popular vote margin of any nonincumbant in history? That's very impressive.
The % Vote is a bit more hazy because the population used to be so much smaller and many of the largest wins are back when you had to be a white land owning male to vote. Obama's clearly made a very good showing this time around in both the modern % and the popular vote. I'd say that must count as a mandate.
The best way Obama can torment and humiliate conservatives for the next eight years is by being a great president.
Even Mule Rider already likes him better than he thought he would :). Lookin good so far.
The only people who really seem to despise Obama are the bigots. Racial epithet spewing rednecks have no political capital left. This election was proof of the denunciation of their idealogy. This is readily apparent with the praise and endorsements Obama has received from moderative conservatives.
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艾葳酒店經紀公司提供專業的酒店經紀, 飯局小姐,領檯人員,領台,傳播妹,或者想要到台北酒店、林森北路酒店,私人招待所,或者八大行業當酒店PT,酒店公關,酒店兼職,想去酒店上班, 日式酒店,制服酒店,ktv酒店,禮服店,整天穿得水水漂漂的禮服酒店,鋼琴酒吧當酒店領檯,酒店小姐,公關小姐??,還是想去制服店當上班小姐,水水們如果想要擁有打工工作、晚上兼差工作、兼差打工、假日兼職、兼職工作、學生兼差、兼差、打工兼差、日領工作、晚上兼差工作、酒店工作、酒店上班、酒店打工、兼職、兼差、兼差工作、酒店上班等,想了解酒店相關工作和特種行業內容,想找打工、假日兼職、兼差打工、或晚班兼職想擁有快速賺錢又有保障的工作嗎???又可以現領請找專業又有保障的艾葳酒店經紀公司!
艾葳酒店經紀是合法的公司工作環境高雅時尚，無業績壓力，無脫秀無喝酒壓力，高層次會員制客源，工作輕鬆，可日領、現領。
一般的酒店經紀只會在水水們第一次上班和領薪水時出現而已，對水水們的上班安全一點保障都沒有！艾葳酒店經紀公司的水水們上班時全程媽咪作陪，不需擔心！只提供最優質的酒店打工,酒店上班,酒店打工環境、上班條件給水水們。
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